Airbus and Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific Airways have signed a purchase agreement for six A350F freighter aircraft with a basic price of $2.71 billion before price concessions, the companies said Friday.
Cathay said Airbus granted it significant price concessions which might be used toward the payment of the aircraft. The basic price comprises prices for airframe, optional features and engine, Cathay said.
The aircraft, expected to be delivered by the end of 2029, will expand Cathay’s cargo fleet capacity and will mainly serve long-haul destinations in North America, South America and Europe, it said.
Airbus said the A350F can carry a payload of up to 111 metric tons and can fly up to 4,700 nautical miles, or 8,700 kilometers.
Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@dowjones.com
Shares of UiPath Inc. soared late Thursday after the automation-software company reported fiscal-third-quarter earnings and revenue that rose above expectations, amid strength in the licenses and subscription-services businesses.
The stock PATH, -0.55%
shot up 11% in after-hours trading, putting it on a path to trade at the highest closing levels seen since April 2022.
Net losses for the quarter to Oct. 31 narrowed to $31.5 million, or 6 cents a share, from $57.7 million, or 10 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Excluding nonrecurring items, such as stock-based compensation expenses, adjusted earnings per share rose to 12 cents from 5 cents to beat the FactSet consensus of 7 cents.
Total revenue grew 24% to $325.9 million, above the FactSet consensus of $315.6 million.
Licenses revenue jumped 25.3% to $148.1 million, well above the FactSet consensus of $137.5 million, and subscription-services revenue climbed 28.7% to $167.5 million to top expectations of $166.9 million. Meanwhile, professional services and other revenue dropped 28.4% to $10.3 million, to miss forecasts of $11.2 million.
Annual recurring revenue increased 24% to $1.38 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.36 billion.
For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of $381 million to $386 million, which surrounds the FactSet consensus of $383 million.
The stock, which fell 0.6% during Thursday’s regular session after closing the previous session at a 15-month high, has run up 26.6% over the past three months, while the SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF XSW, -0.60%
has tacked on 1.3% and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.38%
has edged up 1.2%.
U.K. stocks rose Thursday, as the FTSE 100 Index FTSE 100 Index closed up 0.19% at 7,483.58.
Among FTSE 100 constituents, technical services company Intertek Group PLC Intertek Group PLC saw the largest increase Thursday, as shares climbed 3.42%.
Shares of air freight firm International Distribution Services PLC International Distribution…
It’s filing season for a string of major hedge funds, and big tech names like
Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia were among the most-traded equities in the third quarter.
Soros Fund Management, the investment firm founded by billionaire George Soros, took new positions or bulked up on IPOs and a number of tech names during the third quarter.
But it sold off small holdings of some of the largest — like Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. — as well as electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive.
According to a filing on Tuesday, the firm during the third quarter bought up 325,000 shares of chip designer Arm Holdings ARM, +3.37%,
which went public in September, for $17.4 million. It also bought smaller stakes in recent IPOs such as Maplebear Inc. CART, +1.25%,
better known as grocery-delivery platform Instacart, and digital-marketing firm Klaviyo Inc. KVYO, +6.90%.
Those purchases were disclosed as investors remain cautious on new IPOs.
Elsewhere, the fund took a new position, of around 41,000 shares, in Apple Inc. AAPL, +1.43%.
And it did so as well for Datadog Inc. DDOG, +4.58%,
buying 62,000 shares during the quarter. It also bought up 574,962 shares of Splunk, and took fresh positions in Snowflake Inc. SNOW, +4.51%
and Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, +2.58%.
Soros also packed on more to some of its other tech holdings. It added 125,000 shares to its stake in Uber Technologies Inc. UBER, +3.14%,
boosting its position by 16.6% for a total of 878,955 shares. It also bought 42,000 more shares of another gig-economy player, DoorDash Inc. DASH, +4.37%,
a 30.9% increase for 178,075 shares.
While Soros boosted its stake in General Motors GM, +4.83%,
it sold off its 4.2 million shares in Rivian RIVN, +4.39%.
The firm also sold off its positions — of roughly 10,000 shares apiece — in tech giants Microsoft MSFT, +0.98%
and Nvidia NVDA, +2.13%.
Soros Fund Management also sold off its stake in Walt Disney Co. DIS, +1.82%.
Commercial space-flight operator Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. on Tuesday said it would cut staff in an effort to focus on developing its new class of Delta spacecraft that are expected to cost less and bring more profit.
Management, in an email to employees, did not offer specific figures on the cuts, while citing a shaky investing environment as part of the reason for them. The message said the company would offer more details during its third-quarter earnings call on Wednesday.
Shares were little changed after hours on Tuesday. The stock has fallen 50.4% so far this year.
The cuts follow a handful of space flights this year from Virgin Galactic, which was founded by billionaire Richard Branson. But Chief Executive Michael Colglazier, in the email, said that following successes from the spaceship Unity and its carrier mothership, Eve, the company needed to “reduce our reliance on unpredictable capital markets.”
“To profitably scale our business, we must first invest upfront capital to create a fleet of ships based on a standardized production model — the Delta Class ships,” Colglazier said in the email.
He added that “uncertainty has grown in the capital markets,” with higher interest rates pressuring borrowing and “geopolitical unrest” making for a more cautious environment. He said the Delta spacecraft played a key role in expanding flight service and profitability, and that it was crucial to focus on bringing them into service.
“Interest rates remain high, which adds pressure to companies who are investing today for profits that will come in the future,” he said. “Geopolitical unrest continues to expand, and the combination of these factors makes near-term access to capital much less favorable.”
“The Delta ships are powerful economic engines,” he continued. “To bring them into service, we need to extend our strong financial position and reduce our reliance on unpredictable capital markets. We will accomplish this, but it requires us to redirect our resources toward the Delta ships while streamlining and reducing our work outside of the Delta program.”
He said employees would be notified of their job status between Tuesday and Thursday. Employees will be working from home for the rest of the week, Colglazier said, adding that on-site work locations would be unavailable through that time.
“Delta ships have been designed to have a relatively low unit-production cost and have a material improvement flight cadence relative to our initial ship, VSS Unity,” Colglazier said on Virgin Galactic’s earnings call in August.
“The Delta development process has yielded some excellent enhancements to the ship’s architecture, particularly with regard to manufacturability and maintainability,” he said. “And we are tracking well against our primary ship-performance criteria.”
This week — as Walt Disney Co., Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. all report results — we’ll get a deeper sense of whether the entertainment industry is starting to make investors happy again, even if they make viewers less happy in the process.
Those companies will report as the streaming industry, under pressure from investors to turn a better profit, consolidates and as platforms charge more to watch and cram more advertisements into shows and films.
Cable TV providers and movie theaters, too, are trying to figure out a way forward as streaming becomes more prevalent. Even as Hollywood’s writers come back to work following a strike that shut down production, its actors are still striking, with issues surrounding AI usage to portray actors, streaming payments and other issues in the balance.
Disney DIS, +2.14%,
which reports results on Wednesday, faces questions about losses at Disney+, efforts to cut billions in costs and stamp out streaming-account sharing, its planned takeover of the streaming platform Hulu and speculation over which of its large media properties it might sell. BofA analysts recently estimated that ESPN, which Disney has leaned on for years, could be worth around $24 billion. Meanwhile, activist investor Nelson Peltz has been angling for seats on Disney’s board, and its fight with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis continues.
Elsewhere, Warner Bros. Discovery WBD, +6.23%
— the parent company of the streaming service Max, Warner Bros. Pictures, Discovery Channel, CNN and other channels — reports on Wednesday, as it tries to turn its reserves of intellectual property into franchise films. Meme-stock theater chain AMC AMC, +2.19%,
which also reports Wednesday, following upbeat results from rival Cinemark Holdings Inc. CNK, -2.43%.
The pressure to boost profits will ultimately affect what TV shows and films get made, and what viewers actually consume. And a report from FactSet on Friday found that investors have been more unkind than usual to companies whose results come up short of Wall Street’s expectations.
That report found that through the third-quarter earnings season, companies whose earnings miss expectations have seen an average stock-price drop of 5.2% during the two days before the publication of the results through the two days after. If that figure holds, it would be the stock market’s biggest adverse reaction to an earnings miss since the second quarter of 2011.
This week in earnings
Among S&P 500 companies, 55 including one from the Dow, will report quarterly results during the week ahead.
EV startup Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN, +0.68%
reports amid concerns about EV demand. Following Ticketmaster parent Live Nation Entertainment Inc.’s LYV, +3.53% blowout quarterly results last week, results from Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. MSGE, +1.03%
will shed more light on people’s appetites for live entertainment. Results from digital marketing platform Klaviyo Inc. KVYO, +3.86%
and fast-casual chain Cava Group Inc. CAVA, +5.49%
— both recent IPOS — will offer a deeper look at digital ad budgets and a competitive restaurant backdrop, respectively.
Cybersecurity drama: Cyberattacks are getting more severe, and customers are starting to feel their effects more acutely. Against that backdrop, casino and resort operator MGM Resorts International MGM, +5.27%
will report quarterly results on Wednesday, in the wake of a cyberattack that took down some of its systems. MGM has said that attack, which the company disclosed in September, would cost them roughly $100 million.
The company said the fallout of that attack — which disrupted hotel bookings and put hotels on manual operations, resulting in long lines — was largely contained to September. But the SEC last week accused software company SolarWinds Corp. SWI, +1.74%
of failing to disclose its purported cybersecurity vulnerabilities, potentially leaving other companies wondering whether they’re vulnerable to similar legal action.
The numbers to watch
The gig economy and delivery demand: Rival ride-hailing platforms Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. report results on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Maplebear Inc. CART, +0.94%,
better known as the grocery-delivery platform Instacart, also reports on Wednesday.
Analysts have been kinder to Uber UBER, +2.73%,
the larger of the two ride-hailing companies. But Lyft has tried to cut its prices and roll out new services, including one that tries to match women and non-binary riders and drivers. The financials from all three companies will land after strong results from food-delivery platform DoorDash Inc. DASH, +5.35%,
which has expanded its services into retail an effort to compete with Instacart and other delivery providers. And they’ll fill in the picture of rider demand following the back-to-school season and a bigger push to get workers back into offices.
Beyond ride-sharing, results from Uber and Instacart will narrow the lens on delivery demand, as some analysts question whether higher prices for basics and the return of student-loan payments might make food delivery more dispensable. Analysts also seem likely to zero on in those companies’ high-margin digital-ad businesses, as more e-commerce platforms try to turn their apps and websites into online billboard space.
What do Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Shawn Fain and Lina Khan have in common? On the surface, it might not seem like much — one is an impetuous tech-bro genius, another is a buy-and-hold nonagenarian investor, and the other two are a tough union boss and a business-busting regulator.
But each of them are having a serious impact on your money. They all appear on this year’s MarketWatch 50 list of the most influential people in markets. The MarketWatch 50 is our tally of the investors, CEOs, policymakers, AI players and financial…
JetBlue Airways Corp.’s stock fell 7% in premarket trades on Tuesday after the carrier warned it would post a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss, while it missed analyst estimates for its third-quarter loss and revenue.
“While we have been able to offset some of the costs associated with the challenging operational backdrop, the sheer magnitude of the air traffic control and weather-related delays has been staggering,” the carrier said.
JetBlue JBLU, +1.69%
said it lost $153 million, or 46 cents a share in the third quarter. In the year-ago quarter, JetBlue reported net income of $57 million, or 18 cents a share.
Adjusted loss in the latest quarter was 39 cents a share, wider than the FactSet consensus estimate for a loss of 25 cents a share.
JetBlue’s revenue fell 8% to $2.35 billion, below the analyst estimate of $2.38 billion.
For the fourth quarter, JetBlue expects to report an adjusted loss of 55 cents to 35 cents a share against an analyst estimate of a loss of 15 cents a share.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. reported third-quarter earnings late Tuesday that were better than Wall Street expected, but the airline’s stock fell as the company called for lower profits later in the year.
United UAL, +1.49%
earned $1.1 billion, or $3.42 a share, in the quarter, compared with $942 million, or $2.86 a share, in the same quarter a year earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, the airline earned $3.65 a share.
Sales rose to $14.5 billion from $12.9 billion a year ago.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected United to report adjusted earnings of $3.38 a share on sales of $14.4 billion.
United said it expects fourth-quarter earnings of about $1.80 a share if flights to Tel Aviv are suspended through October, and of around $1.50 a share if the Tel Aviv flights are suspended through the end of the year. The Israel-Hamas war has raged for a little over a week.
Wall Street forecast fourth-quarter earnings of $2.09 a share. United’s stock dropped more than 4% in the extended session Tuesday after ending the regular trading day up 1.5%.
The airline also called for pricier jet fuel for the fourth quarter, seeing a gallon going for $3.28 on average by that time. That compares with a third-quarter fuel average price of $2.95 a gallon.
Fourth-quarter operating revenues are seen 10% higher year-on-year, and 9% higher if the Tel Aviv flights are still halted through the end of 2023. The FactSet analysts are calling for fourth-quarter revenue of $13.6 billion, from $12.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.
United earlier this month said it placed orders for an additional 110 new jets from Boeing Co. BA, +0.36%
and Airbus SE AIR, +3.55%
as it expected air-travel demand to continue unabated.
The airline in 2021 launched its United Next plan, promising more savings by using newer, more fuel-efficient jets. These newer planes often offer premium seating, allowing the airline to sell more profitable, rarely discounted first-class and business seats.
United’s stock has gained 7% so far this year, compared with an advance of about 14% for the S&P 500 index SPX.
United is slated to hold a conference call to discuss the third-quarter results and the update through the end of the year on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern.
But after results from a handful of companies soundly beat estimates in recent days, one analyst who tracks the ebbs and flows of earnings data says at least a slight profit gain for the quarter is more likely — with potentially double-digit percentage growth next year.
FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters, in a report out Friday, said that of the 32 companies in the S&P 500 Index SPX
that reported third-quarter results through Friday, 84% have reported per-share profits that were above Wall Street’s expectations, and he said they were beating those expectations by a greater degree than usual.
The index collectively, so far, was putting up a third-quarter earnings growth rate of 0.4% — compared to estimates on Oct. 6 for a 0.3% decline. Most companies, he said, tend to turn in earnings results that beat estimates.
“Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report year-over-year growth in earnings or more than 0.4% for Q3,” he said.
That assessment follows quarterly results from big companies like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Delta Air Lines, Inc.. Both the bank and the airline reported better-than-expected profits. JPMorgan JPM, +1.50%
Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said U.S. consumers and businesses “generally remain healthy,” despite thinning pandemic-era savings, while Delta DAL, -2.99%
pointed to enduring “robust” travel demand.
More broadly, the quarter will be a look at how customers are faring amid still-high prices, an approaching holiday season and borrowing costs that could stay higher for longer. Recession pessimism has shown signs of easing. But Citigroup Inc.’s chief financial officer, Mark Mason, said on Friday that the bank expected a soft economic landing with a “mild recession” in the first half of 2024. However, he said such an outcome was “hard to call,” amid a strong job market.
Financial forecasts tend to fluctuate as analysts digest real-life financial data. For now, they expect S&P 500 index earnings growth of 7.6% for the fourth quarter, and 0.9% for 2023 overall, according to FactSet. Next year, at the moment, looks better, with expected earnings growth of 12.2%.
This week in earnings
More names from the financial sector will report in the week ahead, following results from JPMorgan, Citigroup C, -0.24%
and Wells Fargo & Co. WFC, +3.07%.
Reports from Morgan Stanley MS, -0.03%
and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, -0.18%
will offer more context on deal-making and market sentiment, while earnings from credit-card giants Discover Financial Services DFS, -1.47%
and American Express AXP, -0.12%
will get more granular on customer spending.
More airlines, like United Airlines Holdings Inc. UAL, -2.76%
and American Airlines Group Inc. AAL, -2.82%,
will also report, providing more detail on whether revenge travel still has any life left. Earnings are also due from Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +0.33%
and AT&T Inc. T, -0.62%.
In total 55 S&P 500 companies total will report quarterly results this week, including five from the Dow, according to FactSet.
The call to put on your calendar
Has Netflix become a utility? Hollywood’s writers will start returning to work, while talks with actors and studios have stalled. But the TV-and-film production limbo hasn’t been the only headache for streaming platform Netflix Inc., which reports quarterly results on Wednesday. The company will report amid greater pressure to boost profits, as the entertainment industry tries to find its footing in the streaming era. Ahead of the results, Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino recently expressed concern that Netflix’s NFLX, -1.53%
ad-supported plan was slow to catch on with viewers. Bernstein analysts likened the company to a mature, durable “utility.” But they also compared the stock to a long-running TV show that, while still good, might be starting to bore its audience. Executives will be hoping for better a better reception from investors.
The number to watch
Tesla margins: When EV maker Tesla Inc. reports results on Wednesday, it will be “all about margins,” Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster said in note recently. Those results, and the focus on margins, will follow price cuts, and questions over profit growth and enthusiasm for Tesla’s TSLA, -2.99%
new Cybertruck. And Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, in a research note, said the year ahead could be “volatile.”
U.S. stocks are poised to rise on Monday ahead of a week of earnings and economic data releases, including quarterly reports from
Tesla, Netflix, and .
The NCAA started allowing college athletes to make money from their name, image and likeness in 2021, after decades of student-athletes saying it wasn’t fair that they didn’t receive any money while the games they played in generated millions of dollars — especially football and basketball contests. And today, many of these athletes are not just making some extra cash on the side — they’re making millions.
These NIL deals are negotiated by college athletes and their representation, and typically involve leveraging an athlete’s brand and influence through promotional means. For example, a car dealership near a university campus may ask the college’s high-profile quarterback to do a commercial for them in exchange for a monetary payment or a car. Similarly, an athlete can make money from social media, depending on how big their following is.
Football players are among the college athletes who make the most money from NIL deals, followed by men’s basketball, women’s volleyball and women’s basketball. That’s because college football and basketball have multibillion-dollar TV contracts to broadcast games, while most other sports generally have lower visibility.
With that in mind, here are the college athletes who make the most money from NIL deals according to On3’s proprietary NIL algorithm, which is based on NIL-deal data, performance, influence and exposure
10. J.J. McCarthy, $1.3 million
J.J. McCarthy of the Michigan Wolverines in action against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Getty Images
As the junior quarterback for the Michigan Wolverines football team, McCarthy is one of the six college football QBs in the top 10 of NIL earners.
McCarthy sports 276,000 followers across his social-media platforms, and has deals with Alo, Bose and Bowman.
Tie-8. Bo Nix, $1.4 million
Bo Nix of the Oregon Ducks throws a pass against the Stanford Cardinals.
Getty Images
The senior QB for the Oregon Ducks has led his team to a perfect 5-0 start this season.
Nix has 219,000 followers on social media and NIL deals with 7-Eleven, Bojangles and Celsius. Nix is considered one of the top players in the nation and has the third-best betting odds to win college football’s Heisman Trophy on DraftKings DKNG, -2.52%
sportsbook.
Tie-8. Spencer Rattler, $1.4 million
Spencer Rattler of the South Carolina Gamecocks warms up before a game against the Tennessee Volunteers.
Getty Images
The South Carolina Gamecocks senior QB has one of the more robust NIL profiles in the nation. He has deals with Mercedes-Benz MBG, -1.23%,
Leaf trading cards and Raising Canes.
Rattler also has 578,000 followers across TikTok, Instagram META, -0.71%
and X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
7. Angel Reese, $1.7 million
Angel Reese of the LSU Lady Tigers during the 2023 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament championship game.
Getty Images
Reese was one of the breakout stars of the women’s March Madness basketball tournament this year. The Louisiana State University hooper led her team to the 2023 title and famously flashed a “you can’t see me” gesture in the title game.
Reese has brand deals with Airbnb, PlayStation and Intuit TurboTax INTU, -0.50%
and has appeared in ads for Amazon AMZN, +0.01%
and Pepsi Co.’s PEP, +0.59%
Starry. She also has 5.2 million followers across her social-media platforms.
During LSU’s magical title run last season, Reese set an NCAA single-season record with her 34th double-double against the Iowa Hawkeyes and was named the most outstanding player of the Final Four.
Reese is one of just two female athletes inside the top 10 in On3’s NIL valuation tracker, and the top college basketball player on the list.
6. Travis Hunter, $2.3 million
Travis Hunter of the Colorado Buffaloes signals first down after a catch against the TCU Horned Frogs.
Getty Images
Hunter was one of the college football players who transferred to the University of Colorado from Jackson State last season to follow coach Deion Sanders.
Hunter, a five-star sophomore prospect, plays on both offense and defense — as a wide receiver and a cornerback — a rarity in a high-level college program. He has 1.9 million followers on social media, a successful YouTube GOOG, -0.08%
channel, and endorsements with Celsius Energy Drink and 7-Eleven.
Hunter entered the 2023 college season as the most highly touted NFL prospect at Colorado, and Deion Sanders contends rival schools have attempted to poach him via lucrative NIL deals.
“People offered Travis Hunter a bag — about $1.5 million to try to lure him and buy him out of the transfer portal,” coach Sanders told 247Sports over the summer. “But Travis is not the kind of guy that can be bought. He isn’t built like that. Travis is a relational young man that is built on relationships and stability. And that’s what he wanted and desired. That is why he decided to ride and stay with us.”
If and when Hunter decides to declare for the NFL draft, he will likely have a multimillion-dollar contract as a rookie that could dwarf his collegiate NIL earnings.
5. Caleb Williams, $2.7 million
Caleb Williams of the USC Trojans warms up before a game against the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Getty Images
The University of Southern California QB is seen as a generational NFL prospect and the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, but he isn’t the top NIL earner.
Williams has 347,000 followers on social media, and brand deals with United Airlines UAL, -1.24%,
Alo and Beats by Dre.
Once the USC junior QB declares for the draft, his rookie contract will likely be set above $37 million, per Spotrac’s estimates.
4. Arch Manning, $2.8 million
Arch Manning of the Texas Longhorns warms up prior to a game against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Getty Images
The Texas Longhorns freshman QB is one of several top NIL earners whose family plays a role in their fame. Arch Manning is the nephew of Super Bowl champion QBs Peyton and Eli Manning, and the grandson of former NFL QB Archie Manning.
Despite being a backup quarterback with no recorded statistics, the younger Manning has 277,000 followers on social media and has a brand deal with Panini. That deal involved him autographing an extremely rare one-of-one Prizm Black card that was auctioned off for $102,500, which was later donated to charity.
Manning was a standout high school recruit, ranked No. 5 in the nation in the 2023 class, and could have an NFL future.
3. Livvy Dunne, $3.2 million
Olivia Dunne of LSU looks on during a PAC-12 meet against Utah.
Getty Images
Dunne is the only college athlete in the top 10 of NIL earners who doesn’t play basketball or football. The junior LSU gymnast is the top female NIL earner in the nation and has brand deals with Vuori clothing, Body Armor KO, +0.62%
and American Eagle Outfitters.
Dunne is the second most-followed college athlete on social media with 12.1 million followers on Instagram, TikTok and X combined.
For many years Dunne was seen as the poster child for NIL deals, and she said earlier this year that she could make as much as $500,000 from a single post.
“What I love with certain brands is getting long-term brand deals,” Dunne said on the Full Send podcast in June. “Those are probably the best because you build a relationship with the brand and they want you year after year.”
2. Shedeur Sanders, $4.8 million
Shedeur Sanders of the Colorado Buffaloes celebrates as he walks off the field following an NCAAF game against the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Getty Images
University of Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders has become a phenomenon in the sports world. The 21-year-old junior made headlines after throwing for 510 yards and four touchdowns in Colorado’s season-opening shocker against No. 17–ranked Texas Christian.
Colorado has become the center of the football world since Shedeur’s father Deion took over as coach. Coach Prime’s team is currently 4-2 — the team was 1-11 last season, good for last place in its conference.
The quarterback has more than 2.3 million followers on social media, and has already inked several deals with big brands, including with yogurt producer Oikos 0KFX, -1.13%,
Gatorade and Mercedes-Benz. He has shown fans some of his new Mercedes cars on social media, too.
Overall, Shedeur Sanders’s NIL value currently sits at $4.8 million, according to On3, up from $1.5 million at the beginning of the year — that’s the highest value in all of college football. For context, that’s nearly twice the average NFL player’s salary.
1. Bronny James, $5.9 million
Bronny James playing at his high school, Sierra Canyon.
Getty Images
James has perhaps the most famous family member of any person on this list. He is the son of NBA legend LeBron James, and is currently set to begin his freshman basketball season at USC.
The younger James has yet to play a game at his new school, but will immediately be one of the most well-known players in college athletics. James has 13.5 million social media followers, the most of any college athlete, and has brand deals with Nike NKE, +1.10%
and Beats by Dre AAPL, -0.06%,
two brands his dad is also repped by.
Bronny James suffered cardiac arrest in July during a basketball practice and had to be taken to the hospital. But he’s on the road to recovery, and hopes to play basketball this season.
“Bronny is doing extremely well,” the older James said last week. “He has begun his rehab process to get back on the floor this season with his teammates at USC. (With) the successful surgery that he had, he’s on the up-and-up. It’s definitely a whirlwind, a lot of emotions for our family this summer. But the best thing we have is each other.”
The stock market always overreacts, and this year it seems as if investors believe dividend stocks have become toxic. But a look at yields on quality dividend stocks relative to the market underlines what may be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors to pursue growth with an income stream that builds up over the years.
The current environment, in which you can get a yield of more than 5% yield on your cash at a bank or lock in a yield of 4.57% on a10-year U.S. Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
or close to 5% on a 20-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD20Y
seems to have made some investors forget two things: A stock’s dividend payout can rise over the long term, and so can it is price.
It is never fun to see your portfolio underperform during a broad market swing. And people have a tendency to prefer jumping on a trend hoping to keep riding it, rather than taking advantage of opportunities brought about by price declines. We may be at such a moment for quality dividend stocks, based on their yields relative to that of the benchmark S&P 500 SPX.
Drew Justman of Madison Funds explained during an interview with MarketWatch how he and John Brown, who co-manage the Madison Dividend Income Fund, BHBFX MDMIX and the new Madison Dividend Value ETF DIVL,
use relative dividend yields as part of their screening process for stocks. He said he has never seen such yields, when compared with that of the broad market, during 20 years of work as a securities analyst and portfolio manager.
Dividend stocks are down
Before diving in, we can illustrate the market’s current loathing of dividend stocks by comparing the performance of the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF SCHD,
which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, with that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY.
Let’s look at a total return chart (with dividends reinvested) starting at the end of 2021, since the Federal Reserve started its cycle of interest rate increases in March 2022:
FactSet
The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is made up of “high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The end results for the two ETFs from the end of 2021 through Tuesday are similar. But you can see how the performance pattern has been different, with the dividend stocks holding up well during the stock market’s reaction to the Fed’s move last year, but trailing the market’s recovery as yields on CDs and bonds have become so much more attractive this year. Let’s break down the performance since the end of 2021, this time bringing in the Madison Dividend Income Fund’s Class Y and Class I shares:
Fund
2023 return
2022 return
Return since the end of 2021
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
14.9%
-18.2%
-6.0%
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-3.8%
-3.2%
-6.9%
Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class Y
-4.7%
-5.4%
-9.9%
Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class I
-4.7%
-5.3%
-9.7%
Source: FactSet
Dividend stocks held up well during 2022, as the S&P 500 fell more than 18%. But they have been left behind during this year’s rally.
The Madison Dividend Income Fund was established in 1986. The Class Y shares have annual expenses of 0.91% of assets under management and are rated three stars (out of five) within Morningstar’s “Large Value” fund category. The Class I shares have only been available since 2020. They have a lower expense ratio of 0.81% and are distributed through investment advisers or through platforms such as Schwab, which charges a $50 fee to buy Class I shares.
The opportunity — high relative yields
The Madison Dividend Income Fund holds 40 stocks. Justman explained that when he and Brown select stocks for the fund their investible universe begins with the components of the Russell 1000 Index RUT,
which is made up of the largest 1,000 companies by market capitalization listed on U.S. exchanges. Their first cut narrows the list to about 225 stocks with dividend yields of at least 1.1 times that of the index.
The Madison team calculates a stock’s relative dividend yield by dividing its yield by that of the S&P 500. Let’s do that for the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF SCHD
(because it tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index) to illustrate the opportunity that Justman highlighted:
Index or ETF
Dividend yield
5-year Avg. yield
10-year Avg. yield
15-year Avg. yield
Relative yield
5-year Avg. relative yield
10-year Avg. relative yield
15-year Avg. relative yield
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
3.99%
3.41%
3.20%
3.16%
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.6
S&P 500
1.55%
1.62%
1.79%
1.92%
Source: FactSet
The Schwab U.S. Equity ETF’s relative yield is 2.6 — that is, its dividend yield is 2.6 times that of the S&P 500, which is much higher than the long-term averages going back 15 years. If we went back 20 years, the average relative yield would be 1.7.
Examples of high-quality stocks with high relative dividend yields
After narrowing down the Russell 1000 to about 225 stocks with relative dividend yields of at least 1.1, Justman and Brown cut further to about 80 companies with a long history of raising dividends and with strong balance sheets, before moving further through a deeper analysis to arrive at a portfolio of about 40 stocks.
When asked about oil companies and others that pay fixed quarterly dividends plus variable dividends, he said, “We try to reach out to the company and get an estimate of special dividends and try to factor that in.” Two examples of companies held by the fund that pay variable dividends are ConocoPhillips COP, -0.29%
and EOG Resources Inc. EOG, +0.52%.
Since the balance-sheet requirement is subjective “almost all fund holdings are investment-grade rated,” Justman said. That refers to credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service or Fitch Ratings. He went further, saying about 80% of the fund’s holdings were rated “A-minus or better.” BBB- is the lowest investment-grade rating from S&P. Fidelity breaks down the credit agencies’ ratings hierarchy.
Justman named nine stocks held by the fund as good examples of quality companies with high relative yields to the S&P 500:
Now let’s see how these companies have grown their dividend payouts over the past five years. Leaving the companies in the same order, here are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for dividends.
Before showing this next set of data, let’s work through one example among the nine stocks:
If you had purchased shares of Home Depot Inc. HD, -0.39%
five years ago, you would have paid $193.70 a share if you went in at the close on Oct. 10, 2018. At that time, the company’s quarterly dividend was $1.03 cents a share, for an annual dividend rate of $4.12, which made for a then-current yield of 2.13%.
If you had held your shares of Home Depot for five years through Tuesday, your quarterly dividend would have increased to $2.09 a share, for a current annual payout of $8.36. The company’s dividend has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% over the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500’s weighted dividend rate has increased at a CAGR of 6.24% over the past five years, according to FactSet.
That annual payout rate of $8.36 would make for a current dividend yield of 2.79% for a new investor who went in at Tuesday’s closing price of $299.22. But if you had not reinvested, the dividend yield on your five-year-old shares (based on what you would have paid for them) would be 4.32%. And your share price would have risen 54%. And if you had reinvested your dividends, your total return for the five years would have been 75%, slightly ahead of the 74% return for the S&P 500 SPX during that period.
Home Depot hasn’t been the best dividend grower among the nine stocks named by Justman, but it is a good example of how an investor can build income over the long term, while also enjoying capital appreciation.
Here’s the dividend CAGR comparison for the nine stocks:
This isn’t to say that Justman and Brown have held all of these stocks over the past five years. In fact, Lowe’s Cos. LOW, +0.27%
was added to the portfolio this year, as was United Parcel Service Inc. UPS, -0.16%.
But for most of these companies, dividends have compounded at relatively high rates.
When asked to name an example of a stock the fund had sold, Justman said he and Brown decided to part ways with Verizon Communications Inc. VZ, -0.94%
last year, “as we became concerned about its fundamental competitive position in its industry.”
Summing up the scene for dividend stocks, Justman said, “It seems this year the market is treating dividend stocks as fixed-income instruments. We think that is a short-term issue and that this is a great opportunity.”
If anyone wanted evidence that the market feels skittish just look at stocks related to electric vehicles. They are getting hammered on
capital raising activity that, frankly, should surprise no one.
A major Wall Street bank is warning about the risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored in a fashion similar to the 1970s stagflation era.
Weekend attacks on Israel by Hamas illustrate how geopolitical risks can suddenly return — adding to the surprise shocks of the current decade, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank DB, -1.40%.
Oil prices settled more than 4% higher on Monday as traders weighed the impact of the war in the Middle East on crude supplies. The spike in energy prices is adding to the growing list of similarities to the 1970s era — which also includes consistently above-target inflation across major economies and repeated optimism about how quickly it would fall; strikes by workers; and even increasing chances that this winter will be dominated by the El Niño weather pattern, similar to what took place in 1971 and which is historically tied to higher commodity prices, according to Deutsche Bank.
Inflation remains above central banks’ targets in every G-7 country — the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. How long it will remain high is one of the most important questions facing financial markets, and a destabilization of expectations would make it even harder for policy makers to restore price stability.
“So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote in a note released on Monday. “After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.”
History indicates that the last mile of inflation is often the hardest. One of the key lessons of the 1970s was that inflation failed to return to previous levels after the first oil shock of 1973 and U.S. recession of 1973-1975, and went even higher following a second oil shock in 1979. Now that inflation has been above target for the last two years, “a fresh inflationary spike could well lead expectations to become unanchored,” according to the Deutsche Bank note.
Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank
For now, the public’s inflation expectations, as measured by a New York Fed survey of consumers in August, remain largely stable, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The current period differs from the 1970s era in a number of ways, the Deutsche Bank team also points out. Long-term inflation expectations remain “impressively” well-anchored, commodity prices have fallen substantially from their peaks over the past 12 to 18 months, and supply-chain disruptions that emerged during the pandemic have “broadly healed.” In addition, the U.S. is less energy intensive than in the past and less susceptible to damage from a 1970s-style energy shock.
Even so, “it is vitally important to avoid complacency,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote. “Indeed, with the benefit of hindsight, one of the mistakes of the 1970s was that policy was eased up too early, which contributed to a resurgence in inflation.”
Risk-off sentiment prevailed in financial markets during the early part of Monday, before stocks turned higher during the New York afternoon. All three major U.S. stock indexes DJIA
COMP
finished higher in a volatile session. Trading in U.S. government-debt futures reflected greater demand and gold rallied as a flight to safety took hold. The cash market for Treasurys was closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.
A major Wall Street bank is warning about the risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored in a fashion similar to the 1970s stagflation era.
Weekend attacks on Israel by Hamas illustrate how geopolitical risks can suddenly return — adding to the surprise shocks of the current decade, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank DB, -1.45%.
Oil prices jumped by more than 4% on Monday as traders weighed the impact of the war in the Middle East on crude supplies. The spike in energy is adding to the growing list of similarities to the 1970s era — which also includes consistently above-target inflation across major economies and repeated optimism about how quickly it would fall; strikes by workers; and even increasing chances that this winter will be dominated by the El Niño weather pattern, similar to what took place in 1971 and which is historically tied to higher commodity prices, according to Deutsche Bank.
Inflation remains above central banks’ targets in every Group-of-7 country — the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. How long it will remain high is one of the most important questions facing financial markets, and a destabilization of expectations would make it even harder for policy makers to restore price stability.
“So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote in a note released on Monday. “After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.”
History indicates that the last mile of inflation is often the hardest. One of the key lessons of the 1970s was that inflation failed to return to previous levels after the first oil shock of 1973 and U.S. recession of 1973-1975, and went even higher following a second oil shock in 1979. Now that inflation has been above target for the last two years, “a fresh inflationary spike could well lead expectations to become unanchored,” according to the Deutsche Bank note.
Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank
For now, the public’s inflation expectations, as measured by a New York Fed survey of consumers in August, remain largely stable, though still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The current period differs from the 1970s era in a number of ways, the Deutsche Bank team also points out. Long-term inflation expectations remain “impressively” well-anchored, commodity prices have fallen substantially from their peaks over the past 12 to 18 months, and supply-chain disruptions that emerged during the pandemic have “broadly healed.” In addition, the U.S. is less energy intensive than in the past and less susceptible to damage from a 1970s-style energy shock.
Even so, “it is vitally important to avoid complacency,” Allen and Ainsworth-Grace wrote. “Indeed, with the benefit of hindsight, one of the mistakes of the 1970s was that policy was eased up too early, which contributed to a resurgence in inflation.”
Risk-off sentiment prevailed in financial markets on Monday, with all three major U.S. stock indexes DJIA
COMP
down in New York afternoon trading. Trading in U.S. government-debt futures reflected greater demand and gold rallied as a flight to safety took hold. The cash market for Treasurys was closed for Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples Day.
Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.
First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500
have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.
Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.
Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc. GOOGL
and Meta Platforms Inc. META,
which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.
On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.
Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds
rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.
The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills
yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.
Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”
Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:
Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg
Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.
This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.
We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.
Screening for lower valuations and high ratings
A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.
Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:
Sector or index
Current P/E to 5-year average
Current P/E to 10-year average
Current P/E to 15-year average
Forward P/E
5-year average P/E
10-year average P/E
15-year average P/E
Utilities
82%
86%
95%
14.99
18.30
17.40
15.82
Real Estate
76%
80%
81%
15.19
19.86
18.89
18.72
Consumer Staples
93%
96%
105%
18.61
19.92
19.30
17.64
Healthcare
103%
104%
115%
16.99
16.46
16.34
14.72
Financials
88%
92%
97%
12.90
14.65
14.08
13.26
Materials
100%
103%
111%
16.91
16.98
16.42
15.27
Industrials
88%
96%
105%
17.38
19.84
18.16
16.56
Energy
106%
63%
73%
11.78
11.17
18.80
16.23
Consumer Discretionary
79%
95%
109%
24.09
30.41
25.39
22.10
Information Technology
109%
130%
146%
24.20
22.17
18.55
16.54
Communication Services
86%
86%
94%
16.41
19.09
19.00
17.43
S&P 500
94%
101%
112%
17.94
19.01
17.76
16.04
DJ Industrial Average
93%
98%
107%
16.25
17.49
16.54
15.17
Nasdaq Composite Index
92%
102%
102%
24.62
26.71
24.18
24.18
Nasdaq-100 Index
97%
110%
126%
24.40
25.23
22.14
19.43
There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.
If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.
A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.
We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:
Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.
“Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.
Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.
There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information: