It’s hard to believe that the end of summer is almost here. Most students will be heading back to school the end of this month or beginning of next, and for parents of children who have autism, the transition period is very challenging for kids and their parents. What can parents do to make the transition from summer vacation to school less painful? Here are 6 ways that have worked for our family.
1) Do a “countdown to school” on your family calendar: A few years ago when my son was REALLY anxious about back to school, a friend suggested me trying this as it helped both her boys with autism have a visual marker of when summer was ending and fall or school was beginning. We now use our wall calendar and with a crayon or pencil mark it off. You can also do this with an online program OR on a dry erase calendar. Give your child the option of crossing the day out in the countdown.
2) Visit the school by car and/or in person with your child: This is also a good technique for our visual children. If they see the school, even if only to drive by, this will help them start to prepare mentally for school. You could also see if you could go in and visit the school if administrations allows it and even meet the teacher. This takes out the element of surprise which leads to anxiety for kids with autism.
3) Take pictures of the school and child’s teacher (if you know it), and laminate in a ‘back-to-school’ booklet: This works really well for all children with anxiety on the spectrum. A friend of mine did a beautiful laminated book like this to prepare her son for his first day of kindergarten. It worked beautifully. You can easily take pictures, have it laminated at a store and put it your own words and child’s picture to personalize it.
4) If possible, do school supply shopping in advance with your child: At my son’s school, we get the school supply list along with the teacher’s name at the end of the school year. This is great as I am able to have mini conversations about school with my son and prepare him. We do the school supply shopping together too as this decreases anxiety in what will be coming.
5) Have them pack the school bag and label their supplies: This works if they are able to read and write. If not, they can still hand you things while you work and participate in packing their bags for school.
6) Start the school bedtime routine about a week in advance: Kids tend to get out of routine, like their parents, on summer holiday. As much as possible, try to slowly start putting back an earlier bedtime routine so that they are rested and well prepared for the first day of school.
These are just some tips that can help with the anxiety and stress of the big transition back to a steady routine. As the person who knows your child the best, I’m sure you will also find your own little tips to help them get back into routine. Wishing you and your exceptional family a happy back-to-school!
European Union countries are meant to have placed an array of sanctions on Russia, preventing exports of a host of goods and services, ranging from high-end machinery to luxury cars, to the country in the wake of its unprovoked 2022 invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
And official data do show that EU exports to Russia have slumped, by 31% during the first five months of the year.
But, curiously, exports from EU countries to Russia’s neighbors have surged.
Take Germany, for instance, whose exports to Kazakhstan are up 105% on a year-over-year basis. German exports to Central Asia and Belarus are up 75%.
IIF
“Not all of this stuff is going to Russia. But a lot of it probably is,” tweeted Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, who produced the chart.
And it’s not just Germany. Sweden also has seen a surge of exports to Kazakhstan.
Meanwhile, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary have boosted exports to Kyrgyzstan.
Even as war rages in Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russians are eyeing popular holiday destinations for a summer break — or even a safe haven to wait out the conflict.
While a weaker ruble and growing economic woes means many ordinary families will be spending the warmer months on their dachas or taking a break inside Russia, those with enough cash to travel are wasting little time jetting off to sunny spots across Europe and Asia.
That means countries still willing to take their money are tapping into a lucrative market. But that can come at a cost, and the politics of taking tens of thousands of tourists from a pariah state is already creating trouble in paradise for some popular destinations.
Here are six of the top places Russians are spending their vacations.
Turkey
As lazy travel writers so often put it, Turkey is a nation that straddles East and West. That old cliché has taken on new meaning since the start of the war in Ukraine, with the NATO member state offering support to Kyiv while at the same time refusing to impose sanctions on Moscow.
Ankara, as a result, has seen much-needed foreign cash flood into the country as Russians look to move their assets abroad. It’s also one of the only European destinations not to have banned flights from Russia: While the EU’s skies are closed, Turkish operators are offering flights from Moscow to sunny destinations like Antalya and Bodrum for as little as €130.
In the first half of the year, Turkey’s tourism revenues grew by more than a quarter, hitting $21.7 billion, statistics released this week show, with as many as 7 million Russians expected to visit the country this year.
Some have even decided to stay — as many as 145,000 Russians currently have residency permits. But while they’ve escaped political instability and the risk of conscription, they are sharing their new home country with tens of thousands of Ukrainians who’ve fled Russia’s war.
That’s created tensions in resort towns like Antalya, which is popular with both Russians and Ukrainians. And given Turkey’s growing anti-migrant sentiment in the wake of May’s presidential elections, both groups could be at risk of being sent home.
Georgia
The South Caucasus country holds an almost mythical status in the minds of Russians — and its reputation for having some of the best nature, food and hospitality in the former Soviet Union has made it a go-to destination for middle-class holidaymakers, who flock to its Black Sea beaches and snow-capped mountains or kick back in trendy Tbilisi.
In 2022 alone, more than 1.1 million Russians visited Georgia, up from just 200,000 the year before. That number is on the rise after Moscow in May relaxed rules banning direct flights.
Under the ruling Georgian Dream party, Tbilisi has sought closer relations with the Kremlin since the start of the war and aimed to profit off Russian wanderlust. But many locals are less sure.
In 2022 alone, more than 1.1 million Russians visited Georgia, up from just 200,000 the year before | Jan Kruger/Getty Images
In a poll conducted in March, only 4 percent of the 1,500 people surveyed said Russians are welcome in Georgia, while a quarter said Russians were tolerated because of the cash they spend when they visit. More than one in three insisted Russian visitors should be banned until Moscow relinquishes control of the occupied regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia — accounting for around a fifth of Georgia’s territory.
Tensions are on the rise, with local Georgian and Ukrainian activists staging protests against Russian cruise ships docking in the port city of Batumi over the weekend. Clips shared by local media show Russian holidaymakers defending Russia’s 2008 war against Georgia and taunting the demonstrators from their balconies.
Thailand
It’s not only about the gleaming luxury resorts and party beaches. For Russians, the appeal of traveling to Thailand has a lot to do with the month of visa-free travel they’re granted.
The number of Russians visiting Thailand has shot up by more than 1,000 percent over the past year, according to a Bloomberg report. Official statistics show 791,574 Russians traveling to the country in the first half of this year alone.
The party city of Phuket has seen a particular influx, with close to half of all villassold theresince January being bought up by Russians — either as holiday homes or as party pads where they can wait out the war.
That rise in tourism comes as Moscow has also sought to forge closer ties with the kingdom. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov — one of the most committed supporters of the war in Ukraine — flew into Bangkok in July to hail “the importance of boosting cooperation in trade and investment.”
United Arab Emirates
Dubai isn’t to everyone’s taste. But the billionaires’ playground and its pristine beaches have become a sought-after destination for many wealthy Russians looking for a friendly welcome — and a place to spend huge sums in opulent malls.
The number of Russians jetting to the Gulf nation shot up by 63 percent last year, making them the second largest tourism market. The UAE has also seen a surge in Russian expats, who report feeling more at ease in the desert city than in Western countries because there are no public displays of support for war-ravaged Ukraine.
The influx comes as ties between Russia and the UAE are also booming, with Russian firms relocating to the Gulf nation and the Kremlin selling vast volumes of discounted oil to the country.
But analysts warn that pressure from the U.S., U.K. and EU is making it increasingly difficult to the UAE to profit from sanctions evasion, meaning Russian tourists may find their welcome doesn’t last forever.
Cyprus
The island of Cyprus has long been known as Moscow on the Med — a homage to the country’s largest tourist market.
Those beach holidays are now largely out of reach for ordinary Russians, after Cyprus followed other EU member states in banning commercial flights from Russia and last year imposed an €80 fee for visas. The decision, officials say, has cost the country €600 million worth of income.
The island of Cyprus has long been known as Moscow on the Med | Roy Issa/AFP via Getty Images
But, for those who can stump up the costs, flights from Russia with a brief stop in Istanbul or Yerevan cost around €250. Cyprus has also been one of the most prolific issuers of so-called “golden passports,” which offer EU citizenship in exchange for as little as €2.5 million in investment.
While no statistics exist on how many Russians have taken advantage of the scheme, the country has been under pressure to cancel travel documents for sanctioned oligarchs. As many as 222 passports have already been withdrawn, including those belonging to several Russian billionaires.
Ukraine
For Russians with regular jobs and limited cash to spend abroad, country houses and holiday parks are still the most popular option.
Until recently, many of them would be headed to Ukraine’s occupied Crimean peninsula. An iconic spot for vacations and sanatorium breaks since the days of the Soviet Union, many Russians have bought second homes or paid for package holidays to the region’s Black Sea coast since it was illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014.
Now, a spate of explosions at military facilities and Kyiv’s insistence that Crimea will come back under its control when it wins the war has worried many Russians.
With air traffic close to the border diverted, one of the only remaining routes into the peninsula is across the car and railway bridge opened by President Vladimir Putin in 2018. That bridge has repeatedly been struck by Ukrainian forces looking to disrupt Russian military convoys.
As a result, officials say, hotels are on average more than half empty — despite heavy promotions and discounts. Local proprietors say the situation is even more dire than the government is prepared to admit.
Under pressure from the EU to rein in deforestation or face trade restrictions, Amazon countries must figure out how to bring prosperity to the region without destroying the forest. And that’s proving difficult.
At a two-day summit starting Tuesday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is looking to corral countries to speed up efforts to stop deforestation and decide on a common strategy to save the rainforest.
But it’s likely to be an uphill climb, with countries disagreeing on whether they should commit to a zero deforestation goal and on whether oil and gas drilling should be banned in the region.
The summit comes as the EU is rolling out new rules to ban commodities’ imports driving deforestation abroad and is asking countries to police their supply chains against environmental and human rights violations.
That’s increasing pressure on the Amazon region — and particularly on Brazil, one of the largest exporters of agri-food products to the EU and home to 60 percent of the rainforest — to commit to ambitious action at this week’s meet-up.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has argued that phasing out fossil fuels is essential for the forest’s protection. “Even if we get deforestation under control, the Amazon faces dire threats if global heating continues to climb,” he wrote in an op-ed last month, adding that “to avoid the point of no return, we need an ambitious transnational policy to phase out fossil fuels.”
But Lula isn’t pushing to phase out fossil fuels domestically, highlighting a tension between conservation efforts and ensuring economies stay on track.
The Brazilian leader told local media ahead of the summit he wants to “keep dreaming” about drilling in the region. His comments come as Brazilian oil major Petrobras is looking to open new fields near the mouth of the Amazon River despite receiving a negative opinion from the national institute for the environment.
If fossil fuels are kept underground, Amazon countries will need alternative activities to keep their economies afloat. Observers have suggested using this week’s summit as a way to promote greener farming and sustainable forest management,as well as discuss potential schemes to pay farmers and indigenous people to help protect the forest.
“The bioeconomy is the key to unlocking the region’s economic potential while preserving its ecological heritage and, as such, needs to be at the center of any sustainable and inclusive development plan for the Amazon,” said Vanessa Pérez, global economics director at the World Resources Institute.
Indigenous groups are also watching the summit closely, and want their contribution to climate protection, as well as their rights and territorial claims recognized by country leaders.
“It is not possible to plan the future of the Amazon without indigenous peoples, without guaranteeing our territorial rights,” said Ângela Kaxuyana, political adviser at the Coordination of Indigenous Organizations of the Brazilian Amazon.
High stakes
The outcome of the summit is a major political and diplomatic test for Lula, who has pledged to achieve zero deforestation in the Amazon.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has argued that phasing out fossil fuels is essential for the forest’s protection | Guillermo Legaria/Getty Images
Since taking office last year, Lula has stepped up efforts to crack down on illegal miners, protect indigenous groups and boost conservation efforts in the Amazon, with the government reporting a 66 percent drop in the rate of deforestation in July compared to the same month last year.
But not all Amazon countries are ready to commit to a similarly ambitious goal; Bolivia and Venezuela failed to sign a pledge made at the COP26 climate talks to end global deforestation by 2030.
Scientists have warned that the continued deterioration of the Amazon, a major carbon sink, is likely to have a profound impact on global climate efforts.
“If [Lula] doesn’t come out of this summit with agreement from other countries that they also see this goal as important, it really undermines Brazil’s efforts to reach this [zero deforestation] goal,” said Diego Casaes, campaign director at the NGO Avaaz.
The regional meet-up is also a key opportunity for Lula to assert his credibility as a climate leader both domestically and internationally as Brazil prepares to host the COP30 summit in 2025, Casaes added.
The outcome is “a test of how far Lula can go given the constraint that he has from the congress,” he said, given the Brazilian legislative body has pushed back against measures to boost policing and protection of the rainforest.
Scientists have warned that the continued deterioration of the Amazon, a major carbon sink, is likely to have a profound impact on global climate efforts | Victor Moriyama/Getty Images
European lawmakers will be looking for signals for how the region is preparing to adapt to new rules to police imports driving deforestation, tackle human rights abuses and green trade.
Under the EU Deforestation Regulation, imports of commodities like soy and beef produced on deforested land will be forbidden from 2024, while under the new corporate sustainability due diligence rules companies will be forced to scrutinize their supply chains for environmental damage and human rights abuses.
And although the trade deal between the EU and the Mercosur countries isn’t officially on the agenda, it will certainly come up.
That’s because the EU is currently negotiating a sustainability addendum to the trade deal with his Latin American counterparts, which should give reassurances — notably to France — the agreement will not have negative consequences on the environment and worsen deforestation.
The summit is an opportunity to see whether Amazon countries “are able to coordinate efforts” and to ensure policies related to the forest “are aligned with [global] climate goals,” said Caseas.
Russian ports and ships on the Black Sea — including tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil to Europe — could justifiably be attacked by the Ukrainian military as part of efforts to weaken Moscow’s war machine, a senior Kyiv official warned Monday in the wake of two recent attacks on Russian vessels.
“Everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are our valid military targets,” Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told POLITICO, saying the move was retaliation for Russia withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal and unleashing a series of missile attacks on agricultural stores and ports.
“This story started with Russia blocking the grain corridor, threatening to attack our vessels, destroying our ports,” Ustenko said. “Our maritime infrastructure is under constant attack.”
Over the weekend, Ukraine declared the waters around Russia’s Black Sea ports a “war risk area” from August 23 “until further notice.” The zone includes major Russian ports like Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman.
That’s causing insurance rates for ships to skyrocket and could imperil one of Russia’s main export routes for oil and oil products — key in ensuring the Kremlin has enough cash to keep waging war against Ukraine.
“This story started with Russia blocking the grain corridor, threatening to attack our vessels, destroying our ports,” Ustenko said | Yasin Akgul/AFP via Getty Images
“After this weekend, the Black Sea feels like a more dangerous place for international shipping, and it was already very dangerous,” said Byron McKinney, director with S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Many vessels simply don’t go to the area. Insurance is pretty much nonexistent. Where there are insurance rates they’re very high and that’s only going to increase.”
On Saturday, Russia’s federal maritime agency, Rosmorrechflot, reported that a Russian tanker, the Sig, had been hit in an apparent strike by Ukrainian forces while sailing close to Ukraine’s occupied Crimean peninsula.
“The tanker received a hit on its engine room, close to the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of an attack by a sea drone,” officials said.
Ukraine’s defense ministry said that as long as Russians “terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain condemning hundreds of millions to starvation,” there would be “no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas.”
Crude crisis
Last month, Russia shipped almost 59 million barrels of crude oil, a third of its overall exports, from the strategic Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, according to intelligence firm Kpler. Of that, 32 million barrels went to EU countries. The port also handles other fuels like diesel, gasoil and naphtha in addition to grain destined for the global market.
Novorossiysk is also where the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil conduit terminates, bringing up to 1.3 million barrels a day of oil from Kazakhstan — from where it is shipped on to world markets.
Last month, Russia shipped almost 59 million barrels of crude oil | Francois Lo Presti/AFP via Getty Images
Novorossiysk is also home to a major naval base of the Black Sea Fleet. Last week, a Ukrainian sea drone hit and damaged a Russian military landing vessel, the Olenegorsky Gornyak.
The proximity of Moscow’s military to trade ports could increase the risk to civilian vessels, warned Alexis Ellender, a commodities analyst with Kpler.
“Those operating on the shipping markets are saying they obviously don’t expect Ukraine to attack commercial shipping, but there’s a risk that installations or ships get caught in the crossfire and there’s a lot of trade that moves through Russia’s Black Sea ports,” he said. “There’s a lot of Greek ships working on these trades and while some owners are reluctant to carry Russian cargo, there’s a whole international mix there.”
Shipping forecast
The growing risk the conflict poses to busy international waterways will mean tough decisions for the shipping industry, and for traders tempted to keep buying cheap Russian oil under the terms of a $60 per barrel price cap set last year by the G7.
“You’ve still got Greek and Turkish tankers operating around that zone though, working with Russian oil within the price cap restrictions, and there were quite a few foreign-owned vessels in and around the vicinity of the drone attack in Novorossiysk,” said McKinney. “The most interesting question to come out of this is whether they will be deterred in the future if their multimillion dollar assets are now at risk from a stray missile or whatever it may be.”
The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents shipowners and operators, declined to comment on whether the latest flareups in the Black Sea would deter its members from doing business there.
But, for Ustenko, Western companies should already be realizing there can be no more business as usual with Russia.
“From a legal and moral perspective, it’s completely unjustifiable for these vessels to continue to deliver Russian oil,” he said. “Now that’s supported from the economic point of view as well since the risk is extremely high. Under these circumstances, the prices of insurance are going to jump significantly, making these deliveries unprofitable. Your vessel and your crew is going to be under huge risk.”
“The big companies selling insurance, doing financing, are they prepared to continue this kind of work when they see these pictures coming from the Black Sea?” Ustenko asked. “This is the right moment for even those still trying to close their eyes and pretend nothing has really happened for them to realize — no way.”
Australia has urged China to abolish all remaining trade restrictions after Beijing lifted tariffs on its barley imports, pointing to signs of a normalization in bilateral ties.
“We want all of the impediments removed that currently affect our trading relationship with China,” Trade Minister Don Farrell told CNBC Monday.
We think with some goodwill on both sides, that we can completely stabilize this relationship.
Don Farrell
Australian trade minister
“We always saw the barley application and the suspension of the barley application before the [World Trade Organisation] as a template for dealing with the wine issue,” he said. “So I think now’s the opportunity to have some further talks with the Chinese government.”
A decision on wine tariffs is “not very far away,” according to Farrell. “And of course, we’re extremely confident that the 220% tariffs that were applied to Australian wine will be removed.”
In April, Australia agreed to “temporarily suspend” its World Trade Organization complaint against China for its 2020 decision to impose 80.5% duties on Australian barley trade that was once worth about 1.5 billion Australian dollars ($988.1 million).
It paved the way for Beijing to expediate its review of the tariff decision.
Last Friday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced it was dropping all anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Australian barley starting Saturday — more than three years after they were imposed. The ministry cited “changes in the Chinese market” but did not further explain.
Bottles of wine imported from Australia are displayed for sale at a supermarket in Nantong Free Trade Zone on November 27, 2020 in Nantong, Jiangsu Province of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
On Monday, Farrell said a “range of factors” were at play, with Chinese beer consumers and barley importers “very strongly in favor” of reintroducing Australian barley.
The move underscored thawing tensions between Australia and China, following the first meeting between China’s President Xi Jinping and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on the sidelines of the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Bali in November.
Since then, Australia’s foreign minister Penny Wong and trade minister Farrell have made multiple visits to Beijing and have had direct meetings with their direct counterparts.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated in 2020 under the leadership of former prime minister Scott Morrison, after Australia supported a call for an international inquiry into China’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which was first reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
“I think our whole strategy throughout this process has been to de-escalate the issues, to try and resolve the issues between us and China through dialogue rather than disputation,” Farrell said. “And we think with some goodwill on both sides, that we can completely stabilize this relationship.”
China’s trade curbs forced Australian farmers and producers to find new markets for their produce as the Australian government sought to diversify its trading relationship with free trade agreements with India and the United Kingdom. Farrell said he is hopeful of a trade deal with the European Union “soon.”
BRUSSELS — The chips industry faces a different kind of summer heat: Chinese and Western governments meddling with its supply chains.
From Tuesday, China is putting the brakes on the export of two critical metals for making chips — gallium and germanium — in retaliation for the United States, the Netherlands and Japan curbing exports of some advanced chip printers. The Dutch restrictions, published before summer, will apply from September 1.
This tit-for-tat trade war is unfolding against the backdrop of a global subsidies race to re-shore and secure microchip production. What began in a time of pandemic-era shortages is now a race to avoid supply chokepoints in case conflict breaks out in Taiwan, a major chips hub.
Despite China’s stranglehold on raw materials — with, for example, 95 percent of the world’s supply of primary gallium — chips companies have stayed relatively quiet about the incoming restrictions in their recent quarterly earnings reports.
Europe’s leading chip makers, like NXP Semiconductors, rarely mention China’s upcoming raw materials restrictions in their earnings releases or follow-up calls with analysts.
There was equal indifference to the Western restrictions that provoked the Chinese counter-move. ASML, the Dutch chip equipment supplier that is the main target of the Dutch export controls, said the measures would not have a “material impact” on the firm’s 2023 outlook, nor on longer-term scenarios.
But that doesn’t mean there won’t be any consequences.
Because Chinese gallium and germanium producers will have to seek export permits, much will depend on how rigorous the permitting procedure is, analysts from research firm Wood Mackenzie wrote in a report in early July with the ominous title, “Chips wars: a sign of things to come?”
“If the permitting process restricts the supply of raw materials to chip manufacturers outside China, this will impact downstream end-use markets, including electric vehicles,” the report reads. That brings back memories of the chips shortages in 2020 and 2021, which increased waiting times for car deliveries.
Particularly vulnerable countries in Europe: Germany — the second-largest importer of gallium after Japan — and the Netherlands.
Ramping up
A bigger concern, however, is that the current restrictions are only the start of a larger escalating trade war. “The concern is that this protectionism could escalate to other critical materials end sectors,” according to the Wood Mackenzie report.
ASML CEO Peter Wennink was already forced to comment during the company’s quarterly earnings presentation on media reports that more chip export controls out of the U.S. are coming: “Of course, we will and cannot respond to speculation.” But more in general, he had to admit during the same earnings call that there’s “significant uncertainty” in the market, citing “the geopolitical environment, including export controls” as one of the reasons.
The message: The industry is waking up to the fact that governments consider semiconductors to be strategically important and no longer hesitate to intervene to secure their national security interests.
Both the U.S. and the EU have rolled out multibillions’ worth of subsidy programs — the EU’s Chips Act (€43 billion) and the U.S.’s CHIPS and Science Act ($52 billion) — to lure private investments from U.S.-based Intel, South Korea’s Samsung or Taiwan’s TSMC.
If that’s the carrot tack, some experts point out that governments are also increasingly using the stick approach of export controls — and the current pace of restrictions between the West and China would have been unthinkable a few years ago.
Chris Miller, an associate professor of international history at Tufts University and author of the book “Chip War,” said last week at an event in Washington that he was “surprised by the success” of the U.S.-led effort to build a coalition on export controls.
“Zoom back five years ago, in 2018, ask anyone in this room: Would it have been possible to have established an export control regime bringing together countries from Europe and Asia? Most people would have bet against it,” Miller said.
It’s a new reality for the companies involved — and one that could have unintended consequences.
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger summed it up at the Aspen Security Forum earlier in July: “Right now, China represents 25 to 30 percent of semiconductor exports. If I have 25 or 30 percent less market, I need to build [fewer] factories.”
That comment got a rebuke from U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who said that she didn’t see “any inconsistency” between the export controls to China and the U.S.’s multibillion-dollar plan to re-shore chips capacity.
Brendan Bordelon contributed reporting from Washington.
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Italy intends to leave the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) “without doing damage” to its relationship with Beijing, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said.
“The issue today is: how to walk back [from the BRI] without damaging relations” with Beijing, Crosetto said in an interview with Corriere della Sera. “Because it is true that China is a competitor, but it is also a partner.”
In May, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the country could enjoy good relations with China even without being part of Beijing’s controversial infrastructure initiative. Crosetto’s comments are the first confirmation of Italy’s intention to leave the Chinese program.
“The choice to join the Silk Road was an improvised and wicked act, made by the government of Giuseppe Conte, which led to a double negative result. We exported a load of oranges to China, they tripled exports to Italy in three years,” said Crosetto in the interview.
In 2019, Italy became the first G7 country to join China’s global infrastructure program to the surprise of allies in the West.
Critics noted that Rome’s decision to enter the Beijing initiative did not improve its trade deficit with China. Chinese exports to Italy increased 51 percent from 2019 to 2022, while China’s imports from the EU country rose by 26 percent during the same years, according to Italy’s Trade Agency.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, meanwhile, said France wants better access to the Chinese market and a more “balanced” trade relationship, not a “decoupling.”
“We don’t want to face some legislative hurdles or some other barriers to get access to the Chinese markets,” Le Maire told a press conference in Beijing a day after what he called “constructive” trade talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng.
Republican presidential candidate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at the American Enterprise Institute on June 27, 2023 in Washington, DC. Haley’s remarks focused on the future of U.S.-China relations and her foreign policy views.
Drew Angerer | Getty Images
American companies should be ready to stop treating China as an economic competitor and start viewing it as a national security threat, Nikki Haley, a Republican presidential candidate and former ambassador to the United Nations, said Monday.
“I think China’s an enemy. I think we have to take them incredibly seriously. And the problem is, you can look at dollars and cents or you can look at a threat to America,” Haley said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“Companies and people have said for too long, ‘We’ll deal with China tomorrow.’ But China is dealing with us today. We’ve got to address this,” she added.
Haley said “every company needs to have a Plan B” in the event that China decides to “pull the rug out from under us.” She called Beijing “the biggest threat we’ve had since Pearl Harbor.”
The former governor of South Carolina also criticized Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who recently said the U.S. relationship with China need not be a “winner take all” contest.
“To even say that means you don’t understand China,” Haley said of Yellen.
Haley’s latest remarks build on the hawkish position she laid out last month in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, in which she vowed to push U.S. businesses “to leave China as completely as possible.”
She also urged businesses to forge stronger ties with U.S. allies, such as India, Japan and South Korea, to become less dependent on China.
Haley pointed to a series of actions taken by China’s communist leadership in recent years that she said pose a multi-layered economic and security threat to the United States. They include buying hundreds of thousands of acres of U.S. farmland, purchasing the country’s largest pork producer, floating spy balloons over America, spreading propaganda in universities, lobbying Congress through “front companies,” rapidly building up a massive naval fleet, stealing U.S. intellectual property and developing new weapons.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., did not immediately comment on Haley’s remarks. Chinese government officials frequently insist that Beijing merely seeks a mutually beneficial, “win-win” relationship with the United States. But American diplomats privately joke that “win-win” here means China wins twice.
Haley also suggested that China’s role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis raises questions about the future of the bilateral trade relationship.
Many of the precursor chemicals that make up fentanyl originate in China before being illegally diverted to Mexico, where they are processed by cartels to create the deadly synthetic opioid. The Department of Justice has said fentanyl overdoses are the leading cause of death for Americans ages 18 to 49.
Firefighters help an overdose victim on July 14, 2017 in Rockford, Illinois.
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“I think if it means us ending normal trade relations, you go to China and say, ‘We’ll end normal trade relations until you stop killing Americans,'” she said.
Haley’s alarm-ringing on China comes as she seeks to distinguish herself in the Republican presidential primary, which has so far been dominated by former President Donald Trump.
Only one of Trump’s competitors, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has consistently garnered double-digit support in national polls of the primary race. The rest of the field, including Haley, has struggled to gain traction with voters.
Haley took aim at DeSantis over his ongoing feud with Disney, which stemmed from the entertainment giant’s opposition to a controversial classroom bill in Florida. While she disagrees with Disney’s stance, “I also don’t think that governors should spend taxpayers dollars suing companies.”
Still, it is difficult to predict how forcefully criticizing China will help to set Haley, or any candidate, apart from the pack in the 2024 election cycle.
This is in large part because polls consistently show that a hawkish attitude toward Beijing is one of the few policy positions that enjoys broad support among both Democrats and Republicans.
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As President Joe Biden mounts a reelection campaign, his administration is taking a hard line against China that bears a strong similarity to those of Republicans like Haley.
FBI Director Christopher Wray testified this month that no other country presents a “more comprehensive threat to our ideas, our innovation [and] our economic security.”
Asked about the state of the Republican primary, Haley described it as a marathon, “not a sprint.”
She also said that she would support Trump if he is the eventual Republican nominee. “I’m not going to have a President Kamala Harris,” she said, a reference to the view held by many Republican voters that Biden, who turned 80 last year, is too old to be president.
The pictures posted on the Chinese company’s website show a tall, Caucasian man with a crew cut and flattened nose inspecting body armor at its factory.
“This spring, one of our customers came to our company to confirm the style and quantity of bulletproof vests, and carefully tested the quality of our vests,” Shanghai H Win, a manufacturer of military-grade protective gear, proudly reported on its website in March. The customer “immediately directly confirmed the order quantity of bulletproof vests and subsequent purchase intention.”
The identity of the smiling customer isn’t clear, but there’s a fair chance he was Russian: According to customs records obtained by POLITICO, Russian buyers have declared orders for hundreds of thousands of bulletproof vests and helmets made by Shanghai H Win — the items listed in the documents match those in the company’s online catalog.
Evidence of this kind shows that China, despite Beijing’s calls for peace, is pushing right up to a red line in delivering enough nonlethal, but militarily useful, equipment to Russia to have a material impact on President Vladimir Putin’s 17-month-old war on Ukraine. The protective gear would be sufficient to equip many of the men mobilized by Russia since the invasion. Then there are drones that can be used to direct artillery fire or drop grenades, and thermal optical sights to target the enemy at night.
These shipments point to a China-sized loophole in the West’s attempts to hobble Putin’s war machine. The sale of so-called dual-use technology that can have both civilian and military uses leaves just enough deniability for Western authorities looking for reasons not to confront a huge economic power like Beijing.
The wartime strength of China’s exports of dual-use products to Russia is confirmed by customs data. And, while Ukraine is a customer of China too, its imports of most of the equipment covered in this story have fallen sharply, the figures show.
Russia has imported more than $100 million-worth of drones from China so far this year — 30 times more than Ukraine. And Chinese exports of ceramics, a component used in body armor, increased by 69 percent to Russia to more than $225 million, while dropping by 61 percent to Ukraine to a mere $5 million, Chinese and Ukrainian customs data show.
“What is very clear is that China, for all its claims that it is a neutral actor, is in fact supporting Russia’s positions in this war,” said Helena Legarda, a lead analyst specializing in Chinese defense and foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a Berlin think tank.
Were China to cross the red line and sell weapons or military equipment to Russia, Legarda said she would expect the EU to enforce secondary sanctions targeting enablers of Putin’s war of aggression.
But, she added, equipment like body armor, thermal imaging, and even commercial drones that can be used in offensive frontline operations are unlikely to trigger a response.
“Then there’s this situation that we’re in at the moment — all these dual-use components or equipment and how you handle those,” Legarda explained. “I would not expect the EU to be able to agree to sanctions on that.”
Disappearing customer
Shanghai H Win, like other Chinese companies producing dual-use equipment, has enjoyed a surge in business since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
According to customs records obtained by POLITICO, Russia has ordered hundreds of thousands of bulletproof vests and helmets made by Shanghai H Win | Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images
“Because of the war, a lot of trading companies are looking for us and ask: ‘Are you making this kind of vest?’ We received a lot of inquiries,” a sales representative told POLITICO over the phone.
At first, the representative said Shanghai H Win wasn’t allowed to export directly to Russia unless the Chinese military issues a certificate and it can provide documentary proof of its final customer.
Yet when asked who the man in the pictures was, and where he was from, the representative denied that he was even a customer — even though the website said so.
“He is our customer’s customer. We cannot ask him directly, ‘Where are you from?’ But I guess maybe he is from Europe — maybe Ukraine, maybe Poland, even maybe from Russia. I’m not sure.”
Shortly after the call, Shanghai H Win took down the post featuring the mystery shopper from its website.
Who are the buyers?
So, who exactly are those customers? Evidence of deals — importers, suppliers, and product descriptions — can be found in a registry of declarations of conformity by anyone with access to the Russian internet who is familiar with international customs classifications.
In an earlier story, POLITICO searched these filings and found evidence that sniper bullets made in the United States were reaching Russia, where they were freely available on the black market.
The declarations enable the final buyer to certify that the products are genuine and, in effect, make it possible to import goods without the express consent of the maker. If goods are traded through an intermediary, the maker may not even be aware that its goods are going to Russia. The registry is, however, searchable so it’s still easy to find the ultimate buyers of the Chinese kit.
One is Silva, a company headquartered in the remote Eastern Siberian region of Buryatia. It filed declarations in January of this year detailing orders for 100,000 bulletproof vests and 100,000 helmets. The manufacturer? Shanghai H Win.
Such importers often bear the hallmarks of “one-day” firms, as shell companies are known in Russia, set up by actors who want to conceal their dealings. They tend to be new, listed at obscure residential addresses, and have few staff or assets. Their financial statements often don’t report the levels of turnover that the filings would imply.
According to public records, Silva was registered only last September. It reported zero revenues for 2022. A Google Street View search of its address in Ulan-Ude, the capital of Buryatia, takes visitors to a dilapidated apartment block.
POLITICO tried to contact Silva but the phone number given on its filings rang off the hook and a message sent to its email address bounced.
The sale of so-called dual-use technology that can have both civilian and military uses leaves enough deniability for Western authorities looking for reasons not to confront China | STR/AFP via Getty Images
Another Russian company called Rika declared a smaller shipment of body armor from Shanghai H Win in March. Before that, in January, Rika declared a consignment of helmets from a company called Deekon Shanghai, which shares an address with Shanghai H Win. The two companies are affiliated, another Shanghai H Win representative said.
A woman who answered the phone at Rika said: “We buy in Russia, not in China.” The company didn’t reply to a follow-up email from POLITICO.
The denial is hardly plausible: In addition to the protective gear, a search of declarations by Rika threw up hits for deals for thermal optical equipment from China. That was corroborated by customs data accessed by POLITICO, which revealed more than 220 shipments, worth $11 million, for thermal optics and protective equipment since the outbreak of the war. Rika advertises Chinese-made night sights right at the top of its website.
Another Russian company called Legittelekom, whose homepage reveals it to be a Moscow freight forwarding company, also appears as a buyer of 100,000 items of headgear and 100,000 suits of outerwear from Deekon Shanghai, according to filings dated last November 24.
A man who answered a call to Legittelekom declined to comment on POLITICO’s findings and would not say whether the company supplied the Russian military.
“This is a commercial activity and we do not disclose our commercial activities,” the man said in response to both questions.
Bigger deal
Then there’s Pozitron, a company based in Rostov-on-Don, the southern city briefly captured by warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries in their failed uprising last month. It imported more than $60 million-worth of “airsoft helmets,” “miscellaneous ceramics,” and other items from Chinese firm Beijing KRNatural in November and December 2022, according to customs data shared by ImportGenius.
These flows check out with Pozitron’s own declarations of conformity between late October and December 2022, for a total of 100,000 helmets. The declarations also reveal that Pozitron acquired a range of drones from Chinese multinational SZ DJI Technology Co., Ltd last December.
Although the quantity is unclear, the models specified include ones known to have been used in the Ukrainian theater of war, like DJI’s Mavic 2 Enterprise Advanced quadcopter or the Mini 2 lightweight drone.
At first sight, the product descriptions in the declarations and customs records appear harmless enough — the “airsoft helmets,” for example, are said to be for use in paintball games and “not for military use, not for dual use.”
Sanctions and defense experts say, however, that it’s common practice to mislabel dual-use goods as being for civilian purposes when they’re in fact destined for the battlefield.
At any rate, Pozitron, which was only founded in March 2021, is having a very good war: Its revenues exploded from 31 million rubles — around $400,000 — in 2021 to 20 billion rubles — almost $300 million — in 2022, according to its financial statement.
Reached by email, Pozitron’s general director, Andrey Vitkovsky, said that his company has “never imported drones and similar products” from the People’s Republic of China.
“The main activity of Pozitron LLC is the purchase and sale of consumer goods, sporting goods, and fabrics, both produced in the Russian Federation and imported from China,” Vitkovsky added, saying that his company’s activities were “exclusively peaceful in nature, in compliance with all rules and restrictions.”
The denial is typical — Russian companies have good reason to fear Western sanctions if they are implicated in trade that supports the Kremlin’s war effort. After POLITICO reported in March that a company called Tekhkrim was importing Chinese assault weapons, and declaring them as “hunting rifles,” the firm was sanctioned by the United States.
Pozitron is on the West’s radar, said one sanctions expert, who was granted anonymity as they are not authorized to speak publicly.
As for Beijing KRNatural, POLITICO was able to trace a company with a similar name at the address given in the Pozitron filings. The company, Beijing Natural Hanhua International Trade Co., Ltd, is listed as a “small and micro enterprise.” It was founded in April 2022, a few months before the Pozitron deals. Nobody answered when POLITICO called.
Heavenly mechanics
In contrast to the bulk consignments of protective gear that appear intended to equip a large fighting force, the orders for drones found by POLITICO are more dispersed among different buyers — both companies and individuals.
In addition to Pozitron, buyers of drones from DJI and its subsidiaries include firms called Gigantshina and Vozdukh — neither of which responded to emailed requests for comment. Another is Nebesnaya Mekhanika (“Heavenly Mechanics”), which before the war was the Chinese company’s official distributor in Russia.
A DJI spokesperson said that the company and its subsidiaries had voluntarily stopped all shipments to, and operations in, Russia and Ukraine on April 26, 2022 — two months after the war broke out.
“We stand alone as the only drone company to clearly denounce and actively discourage use of products in combat,” the spokesperson said in comments emailed to POLITICO.
DJI said it had also broken off its relationship with Nebesnaya Mekhanika, although the Russian company filed further declarations for shipments of the Chinese company’s drones last September 15 and on March 27 of this year.
The spokesperson said that DJI was not in any way involved in the drafting of the declarations of conformity found by POLITICO: “These documents would have been filled out by Russian parties, and they do not indicate in any shape or form who ex- or imported the products that are being declared conform.”
“We have seen media reports and other documents that appear to show how our products are being transported to Russia and Ukraine from other countries where they can be bought off-the-shelf,” the spokesperson added. “However, it is not in our power to influence how our products are being used once they leave our control.”
Still, a search of ImportGenius shows that a Chinese company called Iflight has continued to ship DJI drones to Nebesnaya Mechnika via Hong Kong, care of a local company called Lotos. The most recent consignment was delivered last October 10. In an apparent anomaly, Russia is stated as the country of origin for the shipments.
Nebesnaya Mekhanika, which still advertises DJI drones on its website, did not respond to a request for comment.
Political will
The trafficking of low-tech body armor to high-tech drones and thermal optics highlights a vulnerability in the Western sanctions regime. The ambiguity surrounding the dual-use status of this equipment, coupled with the fact that a significant portion of it is manufactured in China, seems, at least for now, to have placed the possibility of the West taking meaningful action beyond reach.
Then there is the flow of technology through China that may include components made in the West that could be of direct military use.
Russia is fully aware of the China loophole and is using it to buy Western technology to fight its war against Ukraine, according to a recent analysis by the KSE Institute, a think tank affiliated to the Kyiv School of Economics. More than 60 percent of imported critical components in Russian weapons found on the battlefield came from U.S. companies, the researchers found.
It’s an issue that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought up on a visit to Beijing last month — the first by Washington’s top diplomat in five years. He told reporters that China had given assurances that “it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine.” Blinken, however, expressed “ongoing concerns” that Chinese firms may be providing technology that Russia can use to advance its aggression in Ukraine. “And we have asked the Chinese government to be very vigilant about that.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that China had given assurances that “it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine” during a visit to Beijing last month | Pool photo by Leah Millis/AFP via Getty Images
France is also concerned that China is delivering dual-use equipment to Russia. “There are indications that they are doing things we would prefer them not to do,” Emmanuel Bonne, President Emmanuel Macron’s top diplomatic adviser, told the recent Aspen Security Forum. Pressed on whether China was supplying weapons, Bonne said: “Well, kind of military equipment … as far as we know they are not delivering massively military capacities to Russia but (we need there to be) no delivery.”
Yet there’s little the West can do to twist Beijing’s arm into halting flows of dual-use products into Russia. Only the United States would have the real power to impose an outright ban on dollar-denominated transactions — as Washington did when it sanctioned Iran over its secret nuclear program.
The EU, however, lacks such a strong sanctions weapon because the euro is far less ubiquitous on global markets. It’s also been hesitant to act. In its latest package of Russia sanctions last month, the EU compiled a list of seven Chinese companies that shouldn’t be allowed to trade with the bloc. But, after lobbying by Beijing, Brussels dropped four companies from the blacklist.
Elina Ribakova, one of the authors of the KSE Institute report, said indirect shipments via China pose challenges in terms of both the scope and enforcement of Western sanctions. Secondary sanctions may not be sufficient, she said. She called for manufacturers to be forced to take responsibility for where their products end up — just as banks were required by regulators to step up customer oversight and anti-money laundering operations in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
“What we can do differently is to create the same infrastructure for the corporates,” explained Ribakova, who is director of the international program at the Kyiv School of Economics. “We have to threaten them with serious fines.”
Maxim Mironov, a sanctions expert and assistant professor of finance at the IE Business School in Madrid, reckons that the West, despite expanding sanctions to punish Putin’s helpers, lacks the political conviction to enforce them against Beijing.
“Do politicians have enough will to put sanctions on China? Basically, the answer is no,” said Mironov.
“China signals: You can try, but I don’t care what you are trying to do,” Mironov added. “And the European Union is like: If you don’t like it, we are not going to do it. And if the Chinese see that, they are just going to continue doing what they think is in their best interest.”
The European Commission, the U.S. National Security Council and the Chinese Mission to the EU did not respond to requests for comment.
Stuart Lau contributed reporting.
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Sarah Anne Aarup, Sergey Panov and Douglas Busvine
Cajibio (CNN) — On a recent Friday morning, about 200 coca and marijuana farmers gathered in the small town of Cajibio, southwestern Colombia, to hear the government out.
Colombian’s government was still licking its wounds after an initiative to legalize recreational marijuana had sunk in Congress less than 10 days before.
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TEWKSBURY — The Tewksbury Planning Board met on Monday, July 17, 2023, at town hall to review several applications for proposed retail marijuana sites. The three proponents, all of whom attended the Select Board’s first round of licensing hearings, were the last remaining of initial eight applicants to receive approval from the Planning Board.
The number of retail marijuana licenses was calculated at 20 percent of the number of the town’s off-premises liquor licenses; with seven off-premises liquor licenses, the number rounds up to three marijuana licenses. Changes to the town’s zoning bylaw and general bylaw at Town Meeting last October allowed for the sale of retail marijuana with the Select Board as the permit-granting authority.
The state allows municipalities to impose a maximum three percent tax on retail marijuana sales; revenues generated from the tax would go to the town’s general fund. The zoning bylaw allows retail operations in four zones within the town: the General Business District (Lowell Line-655 Main St.), South Village Business District (1900 Main St. – Wilmington Line), Industrial 2 (Rockland/Hillman/Washington streets and East/Carter streets), and the Interstate Overlay District (Interchanges of Rt. 495 & 93).
The board revisited a discussion on a site plan review and land…
African leaders have long been reluctant to criticize Russia and now that President Vladimir Putin has killed off a deal to allow Ukraine to export grain, they know they are more dependent than ever on Moscow’s largesse to feed millions of people at risk of going hungry.
Having canceled the pact on Monday, Moscow unleashed four nights of attacks on the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk — two vital export facilities — damaging the infrastructure of global and Ukrainian traders and destroying 60,000 tons of grain. In the latest assault, on Thursday night, a barrage of Kalibr missiles hit the granaries of an agricultural enterprise in Odesa.
“The decision by Russia to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a stab [in] the back,” tweeted Abraham Korir Sing’Oei, a senior foreign ministry official from Kenya, one of the African countries that has received donations of Russian fertilizer in recent months.
The resulting rise in global food prices “disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought,” he added.
Sing’Oei’s was a solitary voice, however. Rather than reproaching Moscow, African leaders have remained largely silent as they prepare to attend a summit hosted by Putin in St Petersburg next week. This follows an African mission led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa last month to Kyiv and St Petersburg in a bid to broker peace.
The diplomatic stakes could hardly be higher.
Putin had been due to make a return visit to Africa next month to attend a summit of the BRICS emerging economies in Johannesburg. That trip has been called off, however, “by mutual agreement” to avoid exposing the Kremlin chief to the risk of arrest under an indictment for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
Without the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered a year ago by the United Nations and Turkey that enabled Ukraine to export 33 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds, many African governments now have nowhere else to turn to but Russia.
“It’s going to be based on political alignments,” said Samuel Ramani, an Oxford-based academic and author of a book on Russia’s resurgent influence in Africa.
Comparing Russia’s tactics to blackmail, Ramani added: “They’re going to be offering free grain to some, they’re going to be selling to others. It’s full-fledged grain diplomacy.”
No deal
Russia said on Monday it would no longer guarantee the safety of ships passing through a transit corridor as it announced its official withdrawal from the deal, declaring the northwestern Black Sea to be once again “temporarily dangerous.” It followed up by threatening to fire on all ships going across the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports, sparking a tit-for-tat warning from Kyiv that it would do the same to all vessels sailing to Russian-controlled Black Sea ports.
Over the 12 months it functioned, the grain deal helped bring down global food prices by as much as 20 percent from the peak set in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. It also provided aid agencies with vital supplies.
Russia repeatedly claimed it has not seen the benefits of the three-times extended agreement, however.
Although Western sanctions carve out exemptions for food and fertilizer the Kremlin argues that sanctions targeting Russian individuals and its state agriculture bank are hindering its own exports, thus contravening a second deal agreed last July under which the U.N. committed to facilitating these exports for a three-year period.
The Kremlin said Wednesday that it would resume talks on the Black Sea grain deal only if the U.N. implements this part of the deal within the next three months.
Propaganda war
Another of Moscow’s criticisms is that cargoes of Ukrainian grain have headed mostly to rich countries; not to those in Africa and Asia bearing the brunt of the global food crisis.
Over the last year, a quarter of all the grain and oilseeds shipped under the initiative have headed to China, the largest recipient, while some 18 percent went to Spain and 10 percent to Turkey, according to U.N. data.
This is not the whole story, however. Trade data from the World Bank shows that much of the wheat exported to Turkey is processed and re-exported, as flour, pasta and other products, to Africa and the Middle East.
Most importantly, all grain that flows onto global markets reduces prices, wherever it ends up, counter the U.N. and others.
Russia has canceled the Black Sea deal and unleashed attacks on the Ukrainian ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk | Chris McGrath/Getty Images
“It is not a question of where the Black Sea food actually goes; it is a question of it [bringing] international prices down, so whether you are a rich country or poor country, you can benefit,” said Arif Husain, the U.N. World Food Programme’s chief economist, speaking at an event on the Black Sea Grain Initiative in Rome recently.
These arguments have been at the center of a months-long propaganda battle between Moscow and Kyiv over who can rightly claim to be feeding the world and who is responsible for soaring food prices.
In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the Kremlin’s narrative — that western sanctions are to blame — was quick to take hold in many parts of Africa.
Ukraine sought to counter this with a humanitarian food program, Grain from Ukraine, launched in November 2022, but shiploads of fertilizer donated to countries, including Malawi and Kenya, served to sweeten the Kremlin’s message.
“A true friend knows no weather. A true friend comes to the rescue when you need them the most. And you just demonstrated that to us,” Malawi’s Agriculture Minister Sam Dalitso Kawale said upon receiving a fertilizer gift from Russian firm Uralchem in March.
Feeling the pinch
Now, countries like Malawi need friends in Moscow more than ever. Not only does the end of the grain deal cut them off from flows of Ukrainian grain, leaving them dependent on Russian supplies, but it also pushes up prices.
Moscow’s withdrawal from the agreement is unlikely to have the same impact on prices as its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Over the last year, Ukraine has opened up alternative export routes and a slowdown in shipments moving under the initiative also meant commodity markets had been expecting Moscow to quit the deal.
While Ukraine can continue to export grain through alternative routes, these come with extra logistical and transport costs, squeezing prices for Ukrainian farmers, at one end, and pushing up costs for buyers, at the other.
For food-insecure countries in the Horn of Africa even a small increase in prices could spell disaster, said Shashwat Saraf, emergency director in East Africa for the International Rescue Committee (IRC).
Domestic production has dropped amid conflict and severe drought, leaving the region increasingly reliant on food imports and food aid. As such, higher food prices will hit hard, he said, adding that traders already report “feeling the pinch.”
With the cost of food rising, the IRC and other humanitarian organizations will be forced to either reduce the number of people they provide cash transfers or reduce the value of these themselves — and this at a time when the number of food insecure people is rising, said Saraf. “When we should be expanding our coverage, we will be actually reducing [it].”
Slap in the face
African leaders attending Putin’s summit next week will be silent on such issues, predicted Christopher Fomunyoh, African regional director at the U.S. National Democratic Institute for International Affairs and one of the Grain from Ukraine ambassadors appointed by Kyiv.
But they must not return empty-handed again, he said. Russia’s discontinuation of the grain deal, following the South African-led visit to St Petersburg, is a “slap in the face,” Fomunyoh told POLITICO. “Their own credibility is now at stake. And my hope is that they will have to speak out in order to not further lose credibility with their own populations.”
In 2022, Russia’s narrative was dominant in Africa, but that has slowly changed through the course of this year, he explained, adding that Africans were starting to see through Moscow’s propaganda.
“There is always a time delay,” said Fomunyoh. “But my sense is that in the days and weeks to come, people are going to see very clearly [that] the destruction of infrastructure in Odessa, the destruction of stock, wheat, and grain in Chornomorsk is contributing to scarcity and the inflation in prices.”
Lionel Barber is former editor of the Financial Times (2005-20) and Brussels bureau chief (1992-98)
Nobody does “No” better than the French. Charles De Gaulle said “Non” twice to Britain’s bid to join the European Economic Community; Jacques Chirac said “Non” to the Iraq war; and Emmanuel Macron this week gave a thumbs down to Fiona Scott Morton, the American Yale academic selected for the post of top economist at the EU’s powerful competition directorate in Brussels.
L’affaire Scott Morton may seem trivial in comparison to the (still unresolved) debate over Britain’s place in Europe or armed conflict in the Middle East, but the French veto of the first foreigner to take up the post says an awful lot about the European Union’s current paranoia about America’s influence and power.
As Macron has pushed a vision of Europe that stands up to the U.S., resisting pressure to become “America’s followers,” as he put it in April, such thinking has strengthened in Brussels.
The Scott Morton fiasco brings back memories of a lunch in Brussels exactly 30 years ago when some officials suspected the U.S. was engaged in an Anglo-Saxon plot to sabotage their plans for economic and monetary union. “Remember James Jesus Angleton,” said a stone-faced Belgian bureaucrat, invoking the name of the legendary, obsessive CIA counterintelligence officer at the height of the Cold War.
Professor Scott Morton was selected as the best candidate in open competition. She enjoyed the backing of Margrethe Vestager, the Danish EU competition commissioner often described as the most powerful antitrust regulator in the world. She also had support from Ursula von der Leyen, German president of the European Commission, whose leadership during the Ukraine war and the COVID pandemic has won widespread praise on both sides of the Atlantic.
All this counted for naught. Despite her distinguished academic pedigree, Scott Morton, a former Obama administration antitrust official, worked for Apple, Amazon and Microsoft in competition cases in the U.S. The notion her background somehow disqualified her for the job shows George W. Bush was wrong when he complained the French had no word for “entrepreneur.” Today’s problem is that Paris has no understanding of the term “poacher turned gamekeeper.”
As Carl Bildt, former Swedish prime minister, tweeted: “Regrettable that narrow-minded opposition in some EU countries has led to this. She was reportedly the most competent candidate, and a knowledge of the U.S. and its antitrust policies should certainly not have been a disadvantage.”
Now, President Macron’s opposition to the appointment has attracted a good deal of support in the Commission, in the European Parliament and among European trade unions. Cristiano Sebastiani, head of Renouveau & Démocratie, a trade union representing EU employees, said senior EU officials should “be invested, believe and contribute towards the European project. The very logic of our statute is that an EU official can never go back to being an ordinary citizen.”
France’s veto of Professor Scott Morton is de facto a veto of Vestager, who was almost untouchable during her first term as competition commissioner between 2014-19. She won kudos for investigating, fining and bringing lawsuits against major multinationals including Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Qualcomm, and Gazprom. More controversially, at least in Paris and Berlin, she vetoed the planned merger between Alstom and Siemens, two industrial giants intent on creating a European champion.
Vestager’s second term has been a different story. She has suffered reverses in the courts which overturned punitive fines against Apple and Qualcomm. Then, although she ranks as a vice-president of the Commission, Vestager found herself challenged by a nominal underling in the shape of Thierry Breton, a former top French industrialist put in charge of the EU’s internal market.
Both have battled over the policing of the EU’s Digital Markets Act and over policy on artificial intelligence, a proxy fight for influence overall in Brussels.
Vestager and Breton have battled over the policing of the EU’s Digital Markets Act and over policy on artificial intelligence | Olivier Hoslet/EPA/AFP via Getty Images
Breton favors the so-called AI Pact, an effort to bring forward parts of the EU’s draft Artificial Intelligence Act. This would ban some AI cases, curb “high-risk” applications, and impose checks on how Google, Microsoft and others develop the emerging technology.
By contrast, Vestager favors a voluntary code of conduct focused on generative AI such as ChatGPT. This could be developed at a global level, in partnership with the U.S., rather than waiting for the two years it will take to secure legislative passage of Breton’s AI Pact.
So what’s the solution? If Europe is to have any chance of prevailing, so the argument goes, member states must take a far harder-nosed attitude to competition policy. This leads in turn to the creation of national or pan-European champions at the expense of crackdowns on subsidies and other anti-competitive behavior. In short, the very liberal policies designed to protect the single market’s level playing field and embodied by the fighting Viking.
For those who occasionally wonder how power has shifted inside the EU since Brexit took the U.K. out of the equation, it is proof indeed that “liberal Europe” is on a losing streak.
TEWKSBURY — The Tewksbury Planning Board met on Monday, June 26, 2023, at town hall. Members Jim Duffy and Vinny Fratalia were absent.
Town Planner Alex Lowder reported that Tree House Brewing Company plans to seek changes to its site plan review application in order to use a parking lot across the street. She noted that the taproom is open; food trucks have been on site for several weeks.
Lowder also added that the Select Board held retail marijuana licensing hearings throughout the month of June, and expects to revisit the issue at the board’s July 18 meeting.
The board reviewed and endorsed the town’s 2023-2027 Housing Production Plan draft.
The board endorsed an approval not required plan for 1167, 1177, and 1187 Main St. The proponents sought to combine the three lots, then split them into two parcels; an existing building will be moved and other buildings will be removed.
Anthony Catalno requested a continuance for a family suite special permit application to the board’s July 17 meeting.
Pure Tewksbury LLC, a retail marijuana applicant, requested withdrawal without prejudice of a site plan review application at 1699 Shawsheen St. to July 17.
A sign special permit application for 1438 Main St LLC was continued to the July 17 meeting.
Tree House Brewing Company requested a continuance for a site plan review and land…
Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade, Minister for Women and Equalities Kemi Badenoch leaves 10 Downing Street.
LONDON — Britain’s Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary, formally signed a treaty confirming accession to the vast Indo-Pacific CPTPP bloc, the country’s largest post-Brexit trade deal to date.
Signed Sunday in New Zealand, the deal will now receive parliamentary scrutiny in the U.K., while other CPTPP nations will also complete their own legislative processes. More than 99% of the current U.K. goods that are exported to CPTPP countries will soon be eligible for zero tariffs, the U.K. government said.
The 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership includes Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia, among others. The U.K. would be the first European nation to join the bloc, which the government says would unlock trade to a region with a total GDP of £12 trillion ($15.7 trillion).
It remains to be seen how much the deal actually benefits Britain’s growth prospects. Based on the government’s own estimates, the deal will raise long-term domestic GDP by just 0.08%, which will have little impact to offset European trade losses as a result of Brexit. The U.K. officially left the EU on Jan. 31, 2020.
Badenoch said Sunday that Britain was using its status as an independent trading nation to join an “exciting, growing, forward-looking trade bloc.”
“[It] will help grow the U.K. economy and build on the hundreds of thousands of jobs CPTPP-owned businesses already support up and down the country,” she said in a statement. One in every 100 workers in Britain was employed by a business headquartered in a CPTPP nation, according to the government citing 2019 data.
Badenoch added that the deal would “open up huge opportunities and unparalleled access to a market of over 500 million people.”
The trade pact evolved out of the now-defunct Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, that originated in the United States but fell apart after former President Donald Trump scrapped U.S. involvement.
TEWKSBURY — On June 12, the Tewksbury Select Board kicked off the first of three nights of hearings to review adult retail marijuana license applications for several companies vying for one of the town’s three retail marijuana licenses and a host community agreement with the town.
“The issue here is about the qualifications and the background of each of the applicants,” said chair Todd Johnson.
Sundaze, owned by Brad Tosto, Peter Wilson, and Stephen Doherty, presented a proposal for 2504 Main St. in the South Village District. The applicant highlighted their experience in business operations, financial accounting, and regulatory compliance. The company held community outreach meetings in late 2022.
The company submitted a business plan to the board, outlining its mission and community engagement strategy. The proponents highlighted plans to hire local employees and create an elegant storefront, along with a security and diversion plan that calls for a full-time security director. Tosto noted that the town has been trying to fill vacant storefronts. A traffic study found no significant impacts for the location.
Lazy River Products, owned by William Cassotis, Mark Leal, and Kevin Platt, presented a proposal for 553 Main St. in the Ocean State Job Lot plaza. The company held a community outreach meeting in fall of 2022.
The EU finalized an agreement with Tunisia on Sunday to boost trade relations and stem migrant departures from the African country to Europe.
Under the deal, which the European Commission had been struggling to push over the line, the EU is to provide cash to Tunis in exchange for stronger border controls.
Exact financial details of the agreement were not given in the EU statement on Sunday. But Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said last month that the EU was ready to provide Tunisia with more than €1 billion in areas including trade, investment and energy cooperation.
The statement said the agreement covers five pillars: migration, macro-economic stability, trade and investment, green energy transition, and people-to-people contacts.
On economic development, von der Leyen told a press conference in Tunis that the EU is “ready to support Tunisia by mobilizing macro-financial assistance as soon as the necessary conditions are met.” She added that as a “bridging step, we are ready to provide immediate budget support.”
While she didn’t give details on Sunday, von der Leyen said in June that the Commission was considering up to €900 million in macro-financial aid, plus “up to €150 million in budget support” directly.
Von der Leyen traveled to Tunisia on Sunday along with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to meet again with Tunisian President Kais Saied. A similar meeting last month had failed to propel the talks to conclusion before a late June EU leaders’ summit as had been hoped.
“Migration is a significant element of the agreement we have signed today,” Rutte told the press conference on Sunday. “It is essential to gain more control of irregular migration.”
Von der Leyen said that under the agreement, the EU will provide Tunisia with €100 million to improve border management, search and rescue, anti-smuggling measures and other initiatives to address the migration issue.
“The tragic shipwreck a few weeks ago, in which many people lost their lives, was yet another call for action,” von der Leyen said. “We need to crack down on criminal networks of smugglers and traffickers.”
The ghosts of colonial history returned to haunt European and Latin American leaders at their summit in Brussels.
For the guests, four hundred years of European colonial rule, economic exploitation and slavery was front of mind. For the hosts, it was Russia’s war on Ukraine in the here and now.
The divergence in views was so profound that the two sides struggled to align their thinking at their first summit in eight years — especially to find words to condemn Russia’s war of aggression in their closing communiqué.
That made the two-day gathering frustrating for all concerned — but especially for leaders of the EU’s newest member states from Eastern Europe, which have their own bitter memories of Soviet imperial rule and Russian aggression.
“It is actually a war of colonization,” Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš said of the 16-month-old Ukraine conflict.
“There is a former colonizer, Russia, and a former colony, Ukraine. And the former overlord is trying to take back their one-time possession. I think that many countries around the world can relate to that.”
Despite the pre-summit rhetoric highlighting the two continents’ shared values, EU leaders struggled to persuade the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) — which includes traditional allies of Moscow such as Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela — to clearly condemn Russia’s war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — a regular guest in Brussels — wasn’t invited this time. Wrangling over the wording in their joint declaration delayed the end of the meeting by hours as leaders sought to bridge the gaps. In the end, only Nicaragua dissented.
“No one intends to lecture anyone,” said European Council President Charles Michel, seeking to placate his guests. “This is not how it works, we have a lot of respect for those countries, for the traditions, for the culture, and the idea is always to engage in a spirit of mutual respect.”
Four hundred years
Spain, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, has its eyes on Latin America and likes to emphasize the close cultural and linguistic ties between the two.
But those links hark back to Spain — and Europe’s — colonial past. The Spanish kingdom colonized much of Latin America starting in 1493 and, over the next 400 years, acquired vast wealth by exploiting its lands and people. The European slave trade also forcibly transported millions of Africans into slavery in Latin America and the Caribbean.
While European leaders hoped to ease geopolitical tensions, their Latin American counterparts came to the table with a clear message: Defining relations today means addressing and rectifying past injustices — especially as the EU looks once again to the resource-rich region, this time to power its green transition.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines’ Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves | Jean-Christophe Verhaegen/AFP via Getty Images
The prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines — a small island state that heads up the 33-nation group — called for talks on economic reparations for colonization and enslavement.
“Resources from the slave trade and from slavery helped to fuel the industrial revolution that has laid the basis for a lot of the wealth within Western Europe,” Ralph Gonsalves told a small group of reporters on Tuesday.
This was part of his argument for a plan to “to repair the historical legacies of underdevelopment resulting from native genocide and the enslavement of African bodies,” as he said on Monday ahead of the summit.
Trade tensions
Trade talks between the EU and Mercosur — which groups four of Latin America’s big economies — also reflected the broader tensions over what it really means for Europe to start afresh in a relationship of equals.
Beyond a cursory mention of a Mercosur deal in the final statement, talks with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay were kept on the sidelinesdespite previous hopes that the summit could inject new energy into negotiations on wrapping up a trade deal.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did, however, say after the summit that “our ambition is to … conclude [at] the latest by the end of this year.”
Industry and civil society have fundamentally different interpretations around how much — or how little — the deal would help put the countries on equal footing with their European partners.
For businesses, the deal needs to happen to ensure the region remains on the EU’s political and economic map.
“For us, the [trade] agreements are important. We need stability and don’t want to be at the mercy of political changes,” said Luisa Santos of the industry lobby group BusinessEurope.
But NGOs don’t see it that way. “Any proposal that leaves the region as a mere provider of natural resources for the benefit of the one percent in the region, big corporations and rich countries is business as usual,” said Hernán Saenz from the NGO Oxfam.
Resource craze
Sealing the Mercosur deal has gained importance for the EU, which is banking on the resource-rich region to power the wind turbines and electric vehicles it needs to meet its climate targets.
Brazil is the largest exporter of strategic raw materials to the EU by volume, while the “lithium triangle” spanning Chile, Argentina and Bolivia hosts about half of the world’s lithium reserves. As part of the summit, Brussels and Chile signed a new memorandum of understanding on raw materials.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (left) and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (right) in Brussels | Dati Bendo/EC
But the EU’s new appetite for those metals and minerals evoques those dark memories of Spanish conquistadors who set out to dominate large parts of South America — in the name of god, glory and, not least, gold, fueling an economic boom back home while stripping Latin America of its riches.
While von der Leyen on Monday announced Brussels will pump over €45 billion into the region through its Global Gateway program — for infrastructure projects that, at least in part, will also benefit the EU’s private sector — Europe is coming late to the party in a region where China has already expanded its influence.
And raw materials partnerships today, the region’s countries emphasized, cannot be based on a model where resource-rich countries mine the valuable resources — often under poor environmental and working conditions — only for them to be shipped abroad for processing and manufacturing, making them reliant on imports for finished products.
“This was the first time that we had the opportunity to discuss in such clear terms a mechanism that would take us away from extractivism in Latin America,” Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández said after the summit.
“It took five centuries, but we managed it — I’m saying that half in jest, but we have at last succeeded.”
Camille Gijs and Barbara Moens contributed reporting.
