ReportWire

Tag: third parties

  • Libertarian candidates test America’s growing discontent with the two-party system

    [ad_1]

    As frustration with the American political establishment continues to soar across the country and public trust in the two-party system reaches historic lows, independent and third-party candidates are moving to fill that void in state races nationwide.

    In New Jersey, residents are preparing to vote in what is one of the most competitive gubernatorial races of the year’s election cycle. The race’s two frontrunners, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D–N.J.) and former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R–Hillsborough), are locked in a head-to-head race to succeed incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

    Sherrill maintains a six-point lead over Ciattarelli, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University, but Libertarian Party candidate Vic Kaplan is hoping to disrupt the race.   

    “I am different from other candidates,” Kaplan told WHYY, Philadelphia’s NPR affiliate. “I offer proposals that would improve the lives of the people of New Jersey.”

    Kaplan, who is polling just over 1 percent according to the Quinnipiac survey, emphasizes a pragmatic slate of reforms centered on decentralization and municipal autonomy, arguing that local governments—not state bureaucracies—are best equipped to meet residents’ needs.

    Kaplan’s platform includes energy deregulation, repealing the state’s Certificate of Need laws, which force health care facilities to receive government permission before they begin construction or renovation, and supporting legislation that limits local cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. He also seeks to expand affordable housing by easing zoning laws and strengthening private property rights by ending the government’s practice of using eminent domain to seize property without the owner’s permission.

    While lowering taxes is central to his campaign—he calls for phasing out New Jersey’s income and sales taxes within four years and replacing them with local revenue and user fees—Kaplan diverges from conventional libertarian views in his support for safety-net programs like Medicaid, which could appeal to some moderate and liberal voters.

    Over 1,000 miles away, Thomas Laehn, another Libertarian Party candidate, is running for Iowa’s open federal Senate seat, hoping to tap into voters’ growing distrust of both major parties.

    Laehn, who describes himself as a “populist” on his campaign website, was elected as the attorney of rural Greene County in 2017—and again in 2021—and is the first Libertarian Party candidate to hold a partisan office in Iowa history. He’s running on a platform that includes decriminalizing marijuana, ensuring a secure and humane border policy, reducing the national debt, and strengthening private property rights by opposing eminent domain.

    To Laehn, the campaign isn’t a traditional partisan challenge but an effort to disrupt the American partisan paradigm. “Both parties have worked tirelessly to take power away from the people and concentrate it into their own hands,” he states on his website. “I am not running against a Democrat or a Republican; I am running against the two-party system itself.”

    Both Laehn and Kaplan face steep structural hurdles, such as limited fundraising networks and the enduring belief that third-party votes are wasted. Kaplan must stand out in New Jersey’s crowded field, while Laehn confronts Iowa’s entrenched partisan loyalties, shaped by decades of Republican control in rural areas and Democratic strength in cities. Still, both are betting that widespread frustration and the rise of independent voters will help them break through the noise and surpass the Libertarian Party’s typical 1 percent to 2 percent ceiling. Both candidates seem less concerned with winning their elections than with turning voter disaffection into a lasting political force.

    Their campaigns also reflect a quiet shift within Libertarian Party politics. After years dominated by ideological purity—intensified by the party’s 2022 Mises Caucus takeover—Kaplan and Laehn represent a turn toward running candidates with a more voter-focused approach. Their brand of libertarianism appears to emphasize civic empowerment and local reform over abstract theory, meeting disillusioned voters where they are. Though their chances of victory are slim, their performance could signal how third-party politics might evolve in an era when voters care less about loyalty and more about limiting centralized power.

    [ad_2]

    Jacob R. Swartz

    Source link

  • No Labels is no más for the 2024 election

    No Labels is no más for the 2024 election

    [ad_1]

    After years of heavy-breathing hints about giving polarization-fatigued Americans a bipartisan presidential choice, and months of painstakingly obtaining ballot access in nearly two dozen states, the 14-year-old centrist nonprofit No Labels has decided to not act like a political party after all.

    “Americans remain more open to an independent presidential run and hungrier for unifying national leadership than ever before,” founding CEO Nancy Jacobson said in a press release Thursday afternoon. “But No Labels has always said we would only offer our ballot line to a ticket if we could identify candidates with a credible path to winning the White House. No such candidates emerged, so the responsible course of action is for us to stand down.”

    According to The Wall Street Journal, which broke the news, Jacobson had recently told supporters that the group went 0 for 30 in reaching out to potential “unity ticket” candidates. Among the refuseniks: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I.–Ariz.), runner-up 2024 GOP contender Nikki Haley, vanquished Democratic challenger Dean Phillips (D–Minn.), former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D–W.Va.).

    Besides confronting the cruel math of third party/independent presidential politics, the organization is still reeling from the sudden death on March 27 of founding chairman Joe Lieberman, the longtime former senator (both Democratic and independent), who made history as Al Gore’s running mate in the razor-thin 2000 election.

    This latest failure of establishment/moneyed centrism in presidential politics follows the derailed ambitions of Haley, Bill Weld, Michael Bloomberg, Howard SchultzEvan McMullin, and plenty of others. Those with longer memories may recall the 2012 flash-in-the-pan Americans Elect, an internet-based third party that obtained ballot access in 29 states before abruptly closing shop.

    Jacobson in her statement tried to put a brave face on things, but it’s hard to imagine the organization doing much more than pushing its bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus on Capitol Hill.

    “We will…remain engaged over the next year during what is likely to be the most divisive presidential election of our lives. We will promote dialogue around major policy challenges and call out both sides when they speak and act in bad faith,” she vowed. “Like many Americans, we are concerned that the division and strife gripping the country will reach a critical point after this election, regardless of who wins. Post-election, No Labels will be prepared to champion and defend the values and interests of America’s commonsense majority.”

    The group’s mushy, hawkish, 30-point Common Sense Policy agenda will now have to be championed mostly outside the presidential race. Why? Because the people gaining traction on the political margins are not D.C. lifers repackaging ancient Reaganism. They are outsiders; even the one with the famous name.

    In five-way national polling, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is averaging 10.5 percent—numbers not seen since the days of Ross Perot—and fellow independent Cornel West is at 2 percent, with presumptive Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1.7 percent. Most polls as of yet do not include anyone from the Libertarian Party, whose nominating convention is in late May, with no clear front-runner. The L.P. is coming off three consecutive third-place presidential finishes.

    Kennedy, Stein, and the Libertarian nominee are all good bets to qualify for a majority of state ballots, with the L.P. currently in the lead, though Kennedy has plenty of money to throw at the problem. Notably, and very unlike No Labels, those three candidates plus West are all considerably more dovish on foreign policy than either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.

    With American public opinion souring on Israel’s war against Hamas, the anti-interventionist vote, which is constantly underrated by the more hawkish journalistic class, has plenty of alternative candidates to choose from. No Labels may be over, but third party sentiment in 2024 is alive and well.

    [ad_2]

    Matt Welch

    Source link

  • The State of the Union is shouty

    The State of the Union is shouty

    [ad_1]

    In this week’s The Reason Roundtable, editors Matt Welch, Katherine Mangu-Ward, and Nick Gillespie welcome back sudden special guest (and former Roundtable host) Andrew Heaton! The editors reflect on President Biden’s recent State of the Union address and look ahead to the unavoidable slog of eight more months of election coverage.

    04:11—President Biden’s feisty, yet empty, State of the Union address

    24:27—Third party election outlook

    46:43—Weekly Listener Question

    55:49—This week’s cultural recommendations

    Mentioned in this podcast:

    State of the Union (on Stimulants)” by Liz Wolfe

    The State of Our Biden Is Historically Frail” by Matt Welch

    Remarks by the President in the State of the Union Address” by Joe Biden

    No Labels, With No Candidate, Says Yes to a 2024 Presidential Campaign” by Matt Welch

    Biden’s Inaccurate and Inadequate Lip Service to Marijuana Reform Ignores Today’s Central Cannabis Issue” by Jacob Sullum

    Biden Touts More Forever Wars, Breaking His 2021 Promises” by Matthew Petti

    “Third Party Candidates Widening Trump’s Lead Over Biden” by Matt Welch

    Biden’s Plan To Subsidize Homebuyers Won’t Work” by Christian Britschgi

    Biden Says He’ll Make the Wealthy Pay More To Fix Social Security. Here’s Why That Won’t Work.” by Eric Boehm

    Biden Is Wrong About Student Debt Forgiveness” by Emma Camp

    Not Again With the ‘Shrinkflation,’ Please” by Eric Boehm

    RFK Jr.: The Reason Interview” by Nick Gillespie and Zach Weissmueller

    The Limits of Taxing the Rich” by Brian Riedl

    How Long Could Billionaires Fund the Government” by Nick Gillespie  and John Osterhoudt

    Send your questions to roundtable@reason.com. Be sure to include your social media handle and the correct pronunciation of your name.

    Check out Andrew Heaton’s podcast The Political Orphanage here.

    Today’s sponsor:

    • A common misconception about relationships is that they have to be easy to be “right.” But sometimes, the best ones happen when both people put in the work to make them great. Therapy can be a place to work through the challenges you face in all of your relationships—whether with friends, work, your significant other, or anyone else. If you’re thinking of starting therapy, give BetterHelp a try. It’s entirely online. Designed to be convenient, flexible, and suited to your schedule. Just fill out a brief questionnaire to get matched with a licensed therapist, and switch therapists any time for no additional charge. Visit BetterHelp.com/roundtable today to get 10 percent off your first month.

    Audio production by Ian Keyser

    Assistant production by Hunt Beaty

    Music: “Angeline,” by The Brothers Steve


    [ad_2]

    Matt Welch

    Source link

  • Third-Party 2024 Candidates Can’t Win, But They Can Help Trump

    Third-Party 2024 Candidates Can’t Win, But They Can Help Trump

    [ad_1]

    This man isn’t going to be president, but he may help Trump or Biden win this November.
    Photo: Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

    There’s no telling what the 2024 presidential general election is going to look like after what will probably seem like an endless campaign between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But both the early polls and recent history suggest that the contest will be close, just like six of the last seven presidential elections. Thanks to widespread disgruntlement with this choice, the odds are also high that the non-major-party vote will be relatively high (more like 2016’s 5.7 percent than 2020’s 1.9 percent) — and that may decide the election.

    But as Jamelle Bouie of the New York Times points out in an important column, the one thing we know for sure is that none of these third-party or independent candidates is going to win:

    [T]o have any hope of fulfilling the constitutional requirement to win a majority of electoral votes, a third-party candidate would need at least a plurality of voters in a huge number of states. The party would need, on a state-by-state basis, to outcompete one of the other two parties, so that it could notch electors under the winner-take-all rules that apply in most states.

    This, unfortunately for anyone with third-party dreams, has never happened. 

    Yes, there is an argument (being suggested most recently by the No Labels crowd, which is seeking ballot access for a yet-to-be-identified presidential candidacy) that a non-major-party candidate can crucially influence the direction of the nation by picking off a few states and deadlocking the Electoral College, thereby gaining massive leverage in the resolution of that deadlock in Congress. But to do that you need a very big regional base of support, as Bouie notes:

     In 1948, with Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina as its candidate, the States’ Rights Democratic Party — better known as the Dixiecrats — won four states and 39 electoral votes despite gaining just 2.4 percent of the national popular vote. Twenty years later, George Wallace and the American Independent Party won 46 electoral votes and 13.5 percent of the popular vote.

    What both results suggest is that under the Electoral College, the next best alternative to a large and well-distributed national constituency is to have a small and intense regional one. It is, it seems, the only other way to win electoral votes as a third party. 

    Both those efforts failed, of course. And if you scan the list of likely non-major-party candidates in 2024 — independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West; Green Party aspirant Jill Stein; whoever the Libertarians choose to run; and the “centrist” worthies under consideration by No Labels — there’s no one with the kind of regional base Thurmond or Wallace (or Teddy Roosevelt in his Bull Moose run of 1912) enjoyed. There is a nascent argument that Kennedy might augment his already-significant but highly diffused support (13 percent in the national RealClearPolitics averages in a five-way race) by winning the Libertarian nomination. That’s a bit of a reach given Kennedy’s lefty background and erratic views; he’s just not the sort of person you can imagine as a hero in an Ayn Rand novel, and his support for strong environmental policies might be a deal-breaker for the Libertarian Party, which has plenty of true believers from whom to choose. In any event, whatever RFK Jr. might gain from the easy ballot access Libertarians might offer would be offset by the number of voters who are decidedly non-libertarian.

    As for No Labels, the group may back away from its threat to run a “unity ticket” thanks to internal dissension and the fury of former allies who think the whole effort would just guarantee a Trump victory. But even No Labels’ own highly dubious polling shows any foreseeable candidate would struggle to win electoral votes. To cite one example, the West Virginia voters whose antipathy to Joe Manchin led him to give up his Senate seat aren’t going to back him for president against Donald Trump.

    What all of this suggests is that non-major-party candidacies should be viewed by voters and pundits alike strictly in the context of how they affect the Biden-Trump binary choice. Sure, there are ideological reasons some voters might pull the lever for the candidates of parties like the Libertarians and the Greens; those voters may believe that in the broader scheme of things it really just doesn’t matter whether Biden or Trump is the 46th president. For everyone else, the choice to go independent or third-party isn’t really a choice of that candidate, but of either Biden or Trump.

    Things could change by November, of course, and the implications of non-party candidacies may depend on how many of them there are and who they are. But current polling shows that the current five-way race we are contemplating will likely help Trump defeat Biden, which makes sense when you consider the cohesiveness of Trump’s MAGA base and his inability to win a popular-vote majority. As Bouie puts it: “If Americans want different choices, they will need a different system.” But let’s not accept the premise that those who vote for Kennedy or Stein or Mapstead or Manchin or West are “choosing” any of these people to take office. Like it or not, the only real choice is binary.


    See All



    [ad_2]

    Ed Kilgore

    Source link