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Tag: the americas

  • The Fed isn’t about to back down from its inflation fight | CNN Business

    The Fed isn’t about to back down from its inflation fight | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    London
    CNN Business
     — 

    Twelve days from now, the Federal Reserve will meet again, and expectations for the central bank’s next moves are firming up. The consensus among investors: Persistently hot inflation means the Fed will need to continue with its string of aggressive interest rate hikes, which is unprecedented in the modern era.

    What’s happening: Markets see a 99% probability that rates will rise by another three-quarters of a percentage point, reaching a range of 3.75% to 4%.

    A hike of that magnitude is now “a given,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, told clients on Wednesday. “Concern is now focused on December, and whether the Fed is prepared to transition to smaller rate hikes.”

    That’s up from a 60% probability one month ago. So what changed?

    Inflation, mainly. The US Consumer Price Index rose 8.2% in the year to September after rising 8.3% annually in August. While CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, that reading was still uncomfortably elevated and higher than economists had expected.

    The 6.6% annual uptick in shelter costs was of particular concern. It takes longer for housing expenses to come back down than some other categories, since renters tend to sign leases for 12-month periods. The monthly rise in core services costs (excluding energy) was the largest gain in three decades.

    The data underscored the need for the Federal Reserve to stay tough — while a strong jobs report for September will deliver confidence the central bank can do so without causing undue harm to the US economy.

    Fed officials have said as much. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become “pernicious,” which means that “frontloading” larger rate hikes is logical.

    The market impact: The S&P 500 kicked off the week with a 3.8% rally before dropping 0.7% on Wednesday. It’s still plodding along in a bear market, about 23% below its January peak. So long as the Fed signals its intention to keep the pressure on, boosting the odds of a US recession, volatility is expected to persist.

    Even relatively solid corporate earnings may not be sufficient to change the direction.

    “So far, the results are decent, but they’re being compared to consensus estimates that have been persistently lowered since early summer,” noted strategists at Charles Schwab.

    Tesla

    (TSLA)
    posted a solid quarter of earnings and record revenue, but now says it will likely fall short of its target for a 50% growth in the number of cars it sells this year.

    Quick rewind: As recently as July, the company said it was still aiming for a target of 50% growth from the 936,000 cars it delivered in 2021.

    But with two quarters of disappointing deliveries caused by supply chain issues and Covid-related shutdowns in China, that goal has looked increasingly out of reach, my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore reports.

    CEO Elon Musk said that the electric carmaker is not struggling with demand.

    “We expect to sell every car that we make, for as far in the future as we can see,” he said on a call with analysts on Wednesday.

    Instead, the company said it would “just” miss its target due to complications with delivery of cars from its factories to customers at the end of the year.

    Shares are down 5% in premarket trading on Thursday. They’ve dropped 37% year-to-date, compared to a 22.5% fall in the S&P 500.

    “This quarter was not roses and rainbows,” said Dan Ives, tech analyst for Wedbush Securities. “Competition is increasing. There are some logistical challenges.”

    America’s business leaders are becoming more pessimistic. The Conference Board recently reported a slide in its CEO confidence index, which it said had hit levels not seen “since the depths of the Great Recession.”

    Of the 136 CEOs who were surveyed, 98% said they were preparing for a US recession over the next 12 to 18 months — and 99% said they were bracing for a recession in Europe.

    Notably, the business community is not being quiet about its concerns.

    Amazon founder Jeff Bezos tweeted Tuesday that “the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches.”

    He was responding to a clip of an interview with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who told CNBC that “it’s a time to be cautious.”

    “You have to expect that there’s more volatility on the horizon now,” Solomon said. “That doesn’t mean for sure that we have a really difficult economic scenario. But on the distribution of outcomes, there’s a good chance that we have a recession in the United States.”

    American Airlines

    (AAL)
    , AT&T

    (T)
    , Dow, Nucor

    (NUE)
    and Quest Diagnostics

    (DGX)
    report results before US markets open. CSX

    (CSX)
    , Snap

    (SNAP)
    and Whirlpool

    (WHR)
    follow after the close.

    Also today:

    • Initial US jobless claims for last week post at 8:30 a.m. ET.
    • Existing home sales for September follow at 10 a.m. ET.

    Coming tomorrow: Earnings from American Express and Verizon.

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  • Trump made insensitive comments about Jews in 2021 video clip | CNN Politics

    Trump made insensitive comments about Jews in 2021 video clip | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Former President Donald Trump asked whether a documentary filmmaker interviewing him last year was a “good Jewish character,” according to the filmmaker and video obtained by CNN.

    The 60-second clip, which was recorded in May 2021 at Trump’s Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club and first reported by The New York Times, shows the former President as he spoke with several people off-camera. In the clip, he told documentary filmmaker Alex Holder “don’t let it roll” as he converses with a woman who approached him with a comment about his support among Jewish voters.

    Following a jump in the video clip, Trump is shown boasting about an executive order he signed in 2019 that recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights before pointing to Holder and asking, “Is this a good Jewish character right here?”

    “I am,” Holder responds.

    “You’ve got to love Trump,” the former President continued. “In Israel, I’m the most popular. With Orthodox, I’m the most popular.”

    At another point in Holder’s footage, Trump asks someone else: “Are you Persian?”

    “My parents were from Iran,” the person says.

    “Be careful, they’re very good sales[men],” Trump replies as the clip cuts off.

    CNN has reached out to representatives for Trump for comment.

    Holder, a British documentary filmmaker, had access to Trump and his family in the weeks after the election. The short clip of Trump’s comments are an outtake of footage for his documentary, “Unprecedented.”

    Just this week, Trump criticized American Jews for what he argued was their insufficient praise of his policies toward Israel, warning that they need to “get their act together” before “it is too late!”

    The suggestion, made on Trump’s social media platform Truth Social, plays into the antisemitic trope that US Jews have dual loyalties to the US and to Israel, and it drew immediate condemnation.

    Those comments echo an argument he has made before. In an interview last December, the former President argued that Jewish Americans “either don’t like Israel or don’t care about Israel,” and also repeated his claim that evangelicals “love Israel more than the Jews in this country.”

    Additionally, during his first campaign for president, Trump delivered a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition that was rife with antisemitic stereotypes.

    A Pew Research survey released in 2021 found that 45% of Jewish adults in the US viewed caring about Israel as “essential” to what being Jewish means, with an additional 37% saying it was “important, but not essential.” Only 16% said caring about Israel was “not important.”

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  • ‘People are just hitting their heads against the wall’: Democrats fret another Johnson win | CNN Politics

    ‘People are just hitting their heads against the wall’: Democrats fret another Johnson win | CNN Politics

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    Rhinelander, Wisconsin
    CNN
     — 

    Tom Nelson can hardly believe it.

    In just a matter of two months, Democrats went from expecting to knock off the unpopular GOP incumbent, US Sen. Ron Johnson, to seeing their party’s nominee, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, scrambling to catch up.

    Already, the finger pointing has begun.

    “The national party did him a grave disservice by not closing the gap, by not being a stopgap measure in August and September to hit Johnson hard on good, effective negative ads, at the same time building up Mandela,” Nelson, a local county executive from central Wisconsin and former Senate Democratic candidate, told CNN. “The national party has totally failed us, and so it’s gonna come down to Wisconsin Democrats.”

    Of possibly seeing Johnson, 67, win a third Senate race, Nelson said, “People are just hitting their heads against the wall. How do we let this happen?”

    Over the summer, Barnes’ top Democratic opponents dropped out, clearing the way for him to win the primary and fully shift to attacking Johnson. Yet Barnes’ slim lead collapsed in September, when Republicans spent nearly $6 million more than Democrats on the air slamming Barnes primarily on crime. In August, a Marquette Law School poll of likely voters showed Barnes leading Johnson 52-45. By early October, those numbers reversed.

    What’s happening in Wisconsin resembles Democratic struggles across the country. They’ve seen their leads evaporate in key House and Senate races as outside money floods in to hammer Democrats over crime and inflation, while they’ve tried to rail against Republicans over their opposition to abortion rights. In several key battleground states – Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida – GOP candidates and groups spent roughly $25 million more than their Democratic counterparts on air in September alone, according to data from AdImpact, which tracks ad spending.

    In states like Wisconsin, the outside money has forced Barnes to go on defense, and air several ads accusing Johnson of lying in the attack ads.

    Many of his supporters believe that is not enough.

    “Oh, I’m terrified,” said Mary Hildebrand, a voter here in this small northern Wisconsin town. “His campaign seems to be faltering,” she said of Barnes.

    In an interview, Barnes dismissed the polls showing him down in the race. Democrats are heartened that the same Marquette pollster tested a larger universe of voters – registered voters – and found the race there essentially a dead heat.

    “Polls go up, polls go down,” Barnes, 35, told CNN. “The reality is we’re showing up, talking to everybody.”

    “All they can do is try to distort my record and try to make people live in fear,” he added, rejecting the notion that he was caught flat-footed. “But that’s not what this is about. It’s about making sure that people know better is possible.”

    Democrats have already reserved $2 million more in ads than Republicans in the final three weeks of the campaign, according to AdImpact. And officials with Democratic outside groups – namely the Senate Majority PAC and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee – reject the criticism that their ad campaigns have been ineffective.

    “Wisconsin is one of the top Senate battlegrounds because voters in the state are tired of Ron Johnson looking out for himself at their expense,” said Amanda Sherman Baity, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has ramped up its spending since the August 9 primary and has spent over $4.8 million in the race so far, including a $1 million ad buy coordinated with the Barnes campaign.

    Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC aligned with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, and its affiliated group have been on the air since May, having dropped $22 million in the state, with $6.2 million planned in the final three weeks.

    “We have just under three weeks left to defeat Johnson and defend our Democratic Senate majority—that’s what we’re focusing on, and we strongly encourage our fellow Democrats to do the same,” said Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Veronica Yoo.

    On the air, Republicans have had a near singular focus, hammering Barnes for violent crime and for previously advocating for shifting police funding to other social services in the community. Outside groups like Wisconsin Truth PAC and the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, have said he supports “defunding” the police, a slogan he rejects.

    Of the GOP attacks, Marilyn Norden, a voter in northern Wisconsin, said: “They seem to be working. Yes, I’m very concerned.”

    After a speech at a packed diner here in Oneida County, Barnes defended himself, telling reporters that the issue is personal for him since he’s lost friends to gun violence. He said he wants “fully funded” schools and “good-paying jobs,” and to prevent “dangerous weapons” from getting in the hands of criminals. He said that Johnson “is only playing politics with our safety.”

    “Nobody is asking about interviews from six years ago, people are asking why Ron Johnson continues to leave them behind,” he told CNN when asked about recent reports he spoke out against police brutality on RT, a Kremlin-backed network, in 2015 and 2016.

    Barnes is attempting to be the first Black person to become a US senator from Wisconsin, and his supporters see a racial component to the attacks.

    “These ads have gone from crime ads to just blatant racism,” Nelson said. “This is something that Wisconsin has never seen before.”

    Barnes’ attacks have mostly focused on the accusations that Johnson enriched himself while in office, an accusation the GOP senator rejects, and over his support for banning abortion.

    Sen. Ron Johnson greets people during a campaign stop at the Moose Lodge Octoberfest celebration earlier this month in Muskego, Wisconsin.

    Asked why he hasn’t focused on other issues during his paid media campaign – namely Johnson’s downplaying of the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and sowing doubt over the Covid-19 vaccine – Barnes said there was plenty of controversy to choose from.

    “We actually have focused on January 6th to an extent, but the reality is there are many different fronts to address Ron Johnson’s failures,” Barnes told CNN. “And it’s important for us to highlight where Ron Johnson has failed people right at home and at the dinner table.”

    Johnson has remained behind closed doors this week. His campaign refused to disclose his campaign schedule this week or make him available for an interview. But he has appeared on Fox this week, including pleading for donations during an appearance on Sean Hannity’s show Tuesday night. The Barnes and Johnson campaigns have each spent over $23 million so far on the race, but the lieutenant governor outraised the senator last quarter, $19.5 million to $11.6 million.

    “I think so many people think this is won,” Johnson said to Hannity. “My fundraising is weaker. I rely on your audience.”

    There are signs that Democrats are broadening their attacks. The Senate Majority PAC and End Citizens United launched Wednesday a new ad featuring a retired Madison police officer calling out Johnson for describing the January 6 attack on the Capitol as largely a “peaceful protest.” On Tuesday, SMP aired another ad attacking Johnson on China, for working to sweeten a tax break for companies connected to his donors and himself, and for his anti-abortion rights position.

    At a speech here on Tuesday, Barnes attacked Johnson for not supporting federal legislation to codify same-sex marriage, for at one point facilitating an effort to contest the 2020 election and for later downplaying the January 6 riot.

    Johnson’s supporters in the ultimate swing state have twice sent him to the Senate, drawn to his brash attitude, businessman background and conservative values. The Wisconsin Republican has also benefited from running in election cycles when the political environment favored his party, first in the 2010 tea party wave, then in 2016 as Donald Trump stunned the world and narrowly took Wisconsin on his way to the White House, and now in 2022, when inflation and a deteriorating economy threatens Democrats’ control of Congress.

    Andy Loduha, Republican party chairman here in Oneida County, said Barnes doesn’t understand the economic issues that have come to the forefront of the race.

    “I think abortion is another example of how the Democrats don’t really have anything to run on,” said Loduha. “They’re running on emotional issues like abortion, but they don’t want to try to touch inflation, crime, drugs.”

    Wisconsin Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki is frustrated with the Democratic bedwetting, even though he said recognized the “tough national political environment.”

    “I just think there’s too many Democrats wringing their hands and thinking this thing is like gone or on its way to being gone,” Zepecki said. “Guys, run through the tape. You’re right there, despite the f***ing onslaught that Barnes had to weather … And he’s still right there.”

    Asked if she believed Barnes would win, Wisconsin Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, who ran against Barnes before dropping out, told CNN, “If there’s one thing we know about Wisconsin, it’s we live by close elections, and we never press our luck.”

    To get there, Barnes will be campaigning next week in Milwaukee with former President Barack Obama, in a bid to energize voters. But there are no plans yet to campaign with the current President, Joe Biden, whose unpopularity remains a liability here.

    Asked if Biden should run for reelection, Barnes told CNN: “We’ll cross that bridge when we get there. We still gotta get through November 8, 2022.”

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  • The US is spending billions to boost chip manufacturing. Will it be enough? | CNN Business

    The US is spending billions to boost chip manufacturing. Will it be enough? | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    The United States government is pulling out all the stops to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, injecting billions of dollars into the beleaguered sector and flexing all policy muscles available to give it a leg up over competition from Asia.

    When the pandemic hit in 2020, firms initially curtailed orders for these micro building blocks needed for smartphones, computers, cars and many other products. Then, as people began working from home, demand soared for information and communication technology – and the chips that power them. A chip shortage ensued, and auto plants had to stop production because they could not obtain chips. This contributed to skyrocketing new and used vehicle prices, a major driver of the painful inflation Americans were feeling.

    In a statement earlier this year, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo dubbed the semiconductor shortage a “national security” issue because it exposed the dependency of US manufacturing on imports of semiconductors from abroad. Chips also serve critical military applications and are necessary for cybersecurity tools.

    The Biden administration and lawmakers rallied in response, passing the CHIPS and Science Act into law in August. The legislation includes $52 billion to strengthen semiconductor manufacturing in the United States. Of this, $39 billion is earmarked for manufacturing incentives, $13.2 billion for research and development and workforce training, and $500 million for international information communications technology security and semiconductor supply chain activities.

    Against that backdrop, several prominent companies have announced significant investments in US manufacturing. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a powerhouse in the industry committed at least $12 billion to build a semiconductor fabrication plant in Arizona, with production expected to begin in 2024. At the start of the year, Intel said it planned to build a $20 billion semiconductor manufacturing plant in Ohio, and groundbreaking for the new chip plant took place just last month. And this month, Micron said it would invest up to $100 billion over the next two decades to build a massive semiconductor factory in upstate New York.

    In a flurry of tweets earlier this month President Joe Biden pledged: “America is going to lead the way in microchip manufacturing.”

    But the US has much catching up to do. US-based fabs, or chip manufacturing plants, currently only account for 12% of the world’s modern semiconductor manufacturing capacity, according to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association trade group. Some 75% of the world’s modern chip manufacturing is now concentrated in East Asia – a majority of that in geopolitically-vulnerable Taiwan. And even with these renewed efforts, the United States does not currently have the same talent and supply chain pipeline as some Asian markets do to support a robust homegrown industry.

    To complicate matters, the surge in public and private investments comes at a questionable time, as concerns over the global chip supply shortage have eased. Pandemic-related supply chain blockages are letting up somewhat and a worsening economic outlook has hampered demand.

    In an earnings call last week, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei warned it expects the “semiconductor industry will likely decline” in 2023. “TSMC also is not immune,” Wei added, but said it expects “to be more resilient than the overall semiconductor industry.”

    Promoting semiconductor manufacturing in the United States now may risk leading to overcapacity and excess supply. And with demand weakening, it isn’t immediately clear if government subsidies will be enough to overcome other obstacles the country faces in developing a competitive semiconductor manufacturing hub.

    To understand the latest US efforts, it’s important to be clear on where the country stands – not just in the overall chip industry, but in relation to specific, valuable pockets of it.

    “The US is very unlikely to increase its share of global production because even as the US brings online more fab capacity; TSMC, Intel and others are announcing fabs in other places and building them even more quickly,” said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    “But I don’t necessarily think that’s really a huge problem,” he added. He noted that measuring manufacturing based on pure output lumps together the lower-end chips and the cutting-edge, higher-end chips that are a more realistic and significant measure of chip manufacturing success. “The US does need to expand chip production for a specific kind of chips, that are directly related to American national security,” he said.

    The Biden administration last Friday imposed sweeping new export curbs designed to restrict China’s access to advanced semiconductors made with US equipment, in a move that targets the manufacturing of advanced weapons systems.

    While only “about 10% to 14% of chips sold [globally] come from US manufacturing facilities,” according to Columbia Business School professor Dan Wang, the United States does have other strengths. “In terms of design expertise, a lot of that still resides in the U.S.”

    Technicians inspect a piece of equipment during a tour of the Micron Technology automotive chip manufacturing plant Feb. 11, 2022, in Manassas, Va.

    Still, the shortcomings are real. “When it comes to foundries, which are the manufacturing side of semiconductors, the U.S. has not really been a major player for many, many years,” said Wang. While it very much used to be, manufacturing began migrating to Asia during the 1980s and ’90s, Wang said. “One of the big reasons for this is that the cost of labor is lower, and it’s just far cheaper to produce at a very massive scale, integrated circuits and chips, in those parts of the world,” Wang added. Morris Chang, the founder of TSMC, said that it costs 50% more to manufacture chips in the U.S. than in Taiwan.

    Now, simply having the facilities already set up to produce or expand chip manufacturing gives Asia a big advantage. Wang said he thinks that might be why you see the U.S. “axe-throwing so much money at companies to set up plants in the United States.” It’s not just to respond to demand and become more self-reliant, “but also because you need to get these things up and running very, very quickly, in order to even be in the race at all.”

    Building new chip fabs itself is a costly and time-consuming endeavor. “A modern fab is something like half a million square feet,” said Bob Johnson, an analyst at Gartner, and requires “monstrous clean rooms that have massive air handling capabilities.” He added that these massive buildings require “exceptionally strong foundations.” As he put it, “you cannot have any vibration in the fab because it can wreck the manufacturing process.”

    In addition, a single extreme ultraviolet lithography machine, required to map out the circuitry of chips, costs about $150 million, and Reuters reports “a cutting-edge chip plant needs 9-18 of these machines.”

    Moreover, the manufacturing of semiconductors requires a range of specialized inputs, including pure chemicals such as fluorinated polyimide, and etching gas, chip etching machines, and more. In places like Taiwan and Fukuoka, Japan, supply chains have developed where the providers of these products are located close to the semiconductor factories. There are also one or two companies that produce vital inputs and that have been trustworthy suppliers to companies in Asia for a long time. This is not yet the case in places like Arizona and Ohio, where plans to build massive chip manufacturing plants are already underway.

    You also need a labor force willing and able to do the work.

    In the United States, there is both a shortage of new graduates and experienced workers with the technical and engineering knowledge necessary to manufacture semiconductors. Many of those who might have the right experience instead prefer to work in trendier industries, according to Kennedy.

    “If we were to today, snap our fingers and have ten new fabs with the world’s leading chips, we probably wouldn’t have enough people to staff them,” Kennedy said. “That’s the biggest bottleneck to the expansion of America’s fab capacity, not capital.”

    Intel has tried to establish close relations with Arizona State University to recruit engineers, but it is unclear whether it and other companies building fabs in America will be able to hire enough trained engineers and technicians. If not, even the billions of dollars committed by the private and public sector may not be enough to reshore semiconductor manufacturing.

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  • Three weeks from Election Day, pre-election voting so far matches 2018’s high levels | CNN Politics

    Three weeks from Election Day, pre-election voting so far matches 2018’s high levels | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Three weeks from Election Day, nearly 2.5 million Americans have already cast their ballots in the midterm elections, according to data from election officials, Edison Research and Catalist.

    In 30 states where Catalist has data for 2018 and 2022, pre-election voting is on par with this point four years ago – which was the highest turnout for a midterm election in decades.

    While it’s too early to predict if 2022 will eventually reach the exceptionally high turnout levels of 2018 – and it’s likely voting patterns have changed as the coronavirus pandemic pushed more people to embrace voting before Election Day – the data demonstrates that there so far appears to be comparable elevated voter interest this midterm.

    Voters already are starting to cast ballots in some of 2022’s most critical swing states: More than 370,000 ballots have been cast in Michigan, nearly 237,000 in Pennsylvania and nearly 160,000 in Wisconsin.

    In Georgia, more than 131,000 voters participated in the first day of early voting Monday, according to the secretary of state’s office – a midterm record that was almost double the nearly 71,000 who participated on the first day of early voting there in 2018.

    Detailed voter information comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit issue advocacy organizations and is giving insights into who is voting before November.

    Over the next three weeks, as more votes are cast and Catalist analyzes more data, the view of the advanced voting electorate will become more clear.

    In Michigan, which is home to a competitive race for governor this year, and Wisconsin, which features hotly contested races for governor and Senate, the breakdown of returned ballots by race is holding steady compared to recent years, according to the data Catalist has analyzed.

    At this point in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 cycles, White Michiganders made up between 85% and 87% of voters who returned ballots, while Black Michiganders were 10% or 11%.

    In Wisconsin, White voters were 89% or 90% of those who’d returned ballots at this point of the last three cycles, while Black voters made up between 5% and 6%.

    That trend hasn’t continued in Pennsylvania, which is host to competitive governor and Senate races. There, White voters make up a larger share of those who have returned ballots compared to this point in 2020 (Catalist doesn’t have data for Pennsylvania in 2018).

    So far, 91% of returned ballots are from White Pennsylvanians; that’s up from 79% at this point of the cycle in 2020. And Black voters in the Keystone State have only returned 5% of ballots so far in 2022; two years ago, they’d returned 15%.

    Pennsylvania Republicans have also made up a larger percentage of the pre-election ballot vote share than they did at this point in 2020. Republicans make up 20% of those who have returned pre-election ballots so far, up from their 14% share at this point two years ago.

    Democrats continue to dominate pre-election ballot returns, though. In 2022, Pennsylvania Democrats are 72% of those who have returned ballots already – slightly down from 78% at this point in the cycle in 2020.

    The data are not predictive of ultimate outcomes. Democrats nationwide have shown a preference to cast their ballots in advance, while many Republicans strongly prefer to vote on Election Day. Former President Donald Trump and his allies baselessly questioned the integrity of voting by mail during the 2020 election.

    While Catalist doesn’t have data for many ballots returned in Arizona so far, the breakdown in ballot requests by party is similar to three weeks before Election Day 2018.

    At this point in the last midterm election, Arizona Democrats made up 34% of mail ballot requests and Republicans made up 37%. This time around, Democrats have requested 35% and Republicans 34%.

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  • LA City Council elects new president amid the fallout from leaked racist audio | CNN

    LA City Council elects new president amid the fallout from leaked racist audio | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    In a unanimous decision, the Los Angeles City Council voted for Paul Krekorian to take over as its president Tuesday following the resignation of Nury Martinez, who was heard making racist comments in a leaked audio recording that drew the nation’s attention to the city government.

    Krekorian, who represents Council District 2, an area stretching from Toluca Lake to the edge of Verdugo Mountain Park in Sun Valley, was elected in 2009 and served for years as chairman of the city’s Budget and Finance Committee. Previously, Krekorian was a California State Assembly member, according to his website.

    While Krekorian thanked his fellow city council members for their faith in him, he noted the serious conditions in which this vote occurred.

    “The city is not celebrating now, the city is grieving. And we are working overwhelmingly together to try to overcome what we experienced over the last week,” Krekorian said during the meeting.

    His predecessor, Martinez, resigned from her seat on Council District 6 last week, two days after stepping down from her post as president after the recording came to light, igniting outrage across the city.

    Krekorian said he plans to reduce the powers of the council president in light of recent events, and “the era of unilateral decision making and consolidating power – that ends today.”

    Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said in a statement Tuesday that Krekorian has his full support.

    “Paul is a committed and conscientious leader who can bring a smart, collaborative, and effective approach to a painful moment when Angelenos deserve steady leadership on the City Council,” Garcetti said. “I am confident that he’ll assemble a leadership team of bridge builders, and I’ll work closely with the Council to help heal the wounds caused by the hateful words of a few.”

    The leaked audio, which was posted anonymously on Reddit and obtained by The Los Angeles Times, details a year-old conversation between Martinez, council members Gil Cedillo and Kevin de León and Los Angeles County Federation of Labor President Ron Herrera.

    Much of the conversation focused on maps proposed by the city’s redistricting commission and the council members’ frustration with them. But it also featured racist remarks about a fellow council member’s Black son and about Oaxacans.

    Herrera apologized in a statement released by the union and resigned last week. Cedillo apologized in a statement and said he should have stepped in during the conversation. De León called comments made during the conversation “wholly inappropriate,” and said he should have acted differently.

    Cedillo and de León, who both face mounting calls to resign, weren’t at Tuesday’s city council meeting.

    In addition to voting for a new president, the council on Tuesday also unanimously voted to look into the next steps to add a ballot measure to amend the city charter and create an independent redistricting commission.

    They are also looking into possible steps to add more city council member seats based on population and ethics reform legislation.

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  • Missouri residents say police dismissed reports of missing Black women, but a month later a woman says she was kidnapped and believes there were other victims | CNN

    Missouri residents say police dismissed reports of missing Black women, but a month later a woman says she was kidnapped and believes there were other victims | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Weeks after residents of a Kansas City, Missouri neighborhood said they complained to police that Black women were missing, authorities are facing community backlash after a Black woman says a White man held her captive.

    A 22-year-old woman, identified by police in court in a probable cause form as T.J., escaped on Oct. 7 from the Excelsior Springs, Missouri, home of Timothy Marrion Haslett, Jr. – a man whom she accuses of kidnapping and raping her after he “picked her up” in Kansas City in early September.

    Excelsior Springs is part of the Kansas City metropolitan area.

    “It was readily apparent that she had been held against her will for a significant period of time,” Lt. Ryan Dowdy of the Excelsior Springs police told reporters outside Haslett’s home. He said investigators are still processing evidence taken from Haslett’s home and that the investigation is ongoing.

    According to the probable cause form, T.J. said she escaped from a room in the man’s basement. Haslett’s neighbors told KMBC and KCTV that TJ went to multiple homes to seek help while Haslett took his child to school. T.J. also said there were other women, but police have found no evidence of others so far.

    The woman’s escape comes weeks after community leaders said they told authorities that they believed a potential predator was targeting Black women in the Kansas City area. Authorities from the Kansas City Police Department initially called the reports of a serial killer targeting Black women “completely unfounded,” according to a statement published by the Kansas City Star newspaper.

    T.J. was wearing latex lingerie, a metal collar with a padlock, and had duct tape around her neck when she escaped, according to the probable cause form.

    Lisa Johnson, a neighbor of Haslett whom T.J. encountered during her escape, told KMBC that T.J. feared Haslett would kill them if she called the police. Johnson told affiliate KCTV she called police after TJ ran to another home for help. Ciara Tharp told CNN affiliate KCTV that her grandmother let T.J. in when she came to her house for help.

    Tharpe says once her grandmother let T.J. inside, she said that Haslett had kidnapped her and killed her friends, according to KCTV. The probable cause form identifies the woman who contacted police as Lisa Cashatt. Cadaver dogs were seen searching Haslett’s backyard, KMBC reports, but investigators have yet to find other missing people in the man’s home.

    “We have no further victims that we are aware of at this specific moment in time,” Dowdy told CNN affiliate KCTV. “She made mention of other victims, but there’s no signs of them at this time that we have found.”

    Haslett was arrested on Oct. 7 and was charged with first-degree rape, first-degree kidnapping and second-degree assault. He’s being held on a $500,000 bond. His bail reduction hearing was originally scheduled for Tuesday but has been postponed to Nov. 8 per his attorney’s request. Haslett’s public defender told CNN they have no comment.

    “We know certain things because we have charged an individual in this horrific crime but by no means do I know all the details,” Robert Sanders, Clay County, Missouri, Prosecuting Attorney told to CNN affiliate KMBC. “We need more information.”

    The Kansas City Police Department said that “in September we were made aware of a social media post claiming there had been four black women murdered in Kansas City and three black women missing from 85th Street/Prospect Avenue. To date, we have had no reports of missing black females from that area.”

    “In order to begin a missing persons investigation, someone would need to file a report with our department identifying the missing party,” said the Excelsior Springs Police Department in a statement to CNN.

    The department said it has activated the Clay County Investigative Squad Task Force, which includes members from other local law enforcement organizations, for its ongoing criminal investigation.

    But residents and missing persons advocates say T.J.’s account of what happened to her, and Haslett’s arrest, underscore the indifference by some in law enforcement when it comes to reports of missing Black people.

    Bishop Tony Caldwell was among the community leaders who first raised concerns about missing Black women in the Kansas City area. Caldwell has been serving the community for years and said that T.J.’s case is part of a much larger problem of Black people being abducted and written off by law enforcement.

    “If that young lady would not have escaped, we wouldn’t be talking today,” Caldwell told CNN. He said that when family and friends come forward and tell authorities that their loved ones are missing, they’re often written off as ‘runaways’ and not taken seriously.

    It is unclear whether T.J. was ever reported missing.

    In response to the community members’ criticism, the Excelsior Springs Police Department also said, “We have checked with law enforcement agencies in the Kansas City metropolitan area and there are no current missing persons reports that correspond with the evidence examined so far in this investigation.”

    Caldwell told CNN that on Monday night, Kansas City area community leaders met for five hours with residents to discuss their anger about the case and what they perceive as law enforcement’s indifference and the vulnerability of Black women and girls. He told CNN that about 50 people attended the meeting.

    He said community leaders don’t want to be perceived as attacking the police. But more important to them than avoiding that perception is knowing that their concerns are taken seriously by law enforcement.

    “We need cooperation [from law enforcement] to get people home. We can argue over terminology all day long, but we gotta get people home safe.”

    Caldwell said he and other community leaders’ concerns were dismissed by authorities when they initially alleged that young women were being abducted from Prospect Avenue, an area of Kansas City notorious for sex workers. Caldwell said that most of the women working in that area are Black.

    “They don’t talk to the police department because the police never believe them, or they believe that the police aren’t gonna do anything about it,” Caldwell told CNN, adding that police never go to Prospect Avenue to investigate missing person reports but instead frequently visit the area to make arrests for prostitution.

    While TJ said she was kidnapped by Haslett near Prospect Avenue, CNN has not been able to ascertain if she was a sex worker.

    CNN reached out to the Kansas City Police Department for comment on the community leaders’ concerns.

    Caldwell says it’s time authorities take reports of missing women seriously, even if the person reporting it has limited information about them.

    “People use street names all the time, and just because you don’t have 99% of the information about a person doesn’t mean that they’re still not worthy of being looked for,” Caldwell said.

    Derrica Wilson, co-founder and CEO of the Black and Missing Foundation, Inc., agreed with the sentiment that law enforcement isn’t taking these cases as seriously as they should.

    “Quite frankly, there’s no sense of urgency in finding them, because there’s the perception that they ran away. So, whatever happens to him or her, they brought it on themselves,” Wilson told CNN.

    “And when it’s adults, law enforcement likes to associate their disappearance with some sort of criminal activity, and it really desensitizes and dehumanizes the fact that these are mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, sons, and daughters. They are valuable members of our community, and they deserve the same resources in finding them.”

    Despite only making up 13% of the United States population, Black people comprise 34% of missing person cases in 2021, according to the FBI’s National Crime Information Center.

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  • French company to pay nearly $778 million as part of plea deal to US charge of providing support to ISIS | CNN Politics

    French company to pay nearly $778 million as part of plea deal to US charge of providing support to ISIS | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    A French cement company admitted Tuesday to making millions of dollars of payments that supported ISIS and another terrorist organization as part of an effort to maintain its operations in Syria as the civil war escalated.

    The company, Lafarge SA, is paying a financial penalty of nearly $778 million and pleaded guilty to a US federal count of conspiring to provide material support to ISIS and another terrorist organization as part of a deal with the US Justice Department.

    It is an unprecedented corporate prosecution under the material support of terrorism law, according to the Justice Department. The company pleaded guilty in a Brooklyn federal court on Tuesday.

    The cement company entered a revenue sharing scheming with ISIS and the al-Nusrah Front that produced millions for the terrorist groups, according to court filings from the plea deal the Justice Department reached with Lafarge.

    “Lafarge made a deal with the devil,” US Attorney Breon Peace, of the Eastern District of New York, said at a press conference after the court proceedings.

    Lafarge and Lafarge Cement Syria – a dormant subsidiary that is also a defendant in the prosecution – entered the conspiracy with “the explicit purpose of incentivizing ISIS to act in a manner that would promote LAFARGE’s and LCS’s security and economic interests,” court documents said.

    Payments that the companies made through intermediaries to the terrorist groups amounted to approximately $5.92 million. When Lafarge evacuated the cement plant in 2014, ISIS took over the plant and sold the cement it had produced for roughly $3.2 million, according to the Justice Department.

    “The defendants paid millions of dollars to ISIS, a terrorist group that otherwise operated on a shoestring budget – millions of dollars that ISIS could use to recruit members, wage war against governments and conduct brutal terrorist attacks worldwide,” Breon said.

    The court filings quote several emails and other documents from the company shedding light on the scheme, which revolved around a cement plant Lafarge was running in Syria.

    Among the communications was an August 2013 email from one executive to two other executives, in which the executive said that, “It is clear that we have an issue with ISIS and al Nusra and we have asked our partner” – referring to an intermediary – “to work on it.”

    A November 2013 agreement between ISIS and LSC, written on a document with ISIS letterhead, laid out a deal for ISIS to let trucks access the company’s cement factory for 400 Syrian pounds per truck, according to the new filings.

    “Relatedly, an ISIS vehicle pass dated April 26, 2014, and bearing ISIS’s letterhead and stamp, allowed LCS employees ‘to pass through after the required work. This is after they have fulfilled their dues to us,’” the court submissions said.

    A July 2014 email from one executive to two others referred to the revenue-sharing scheme as a “cake” to be shared: “We have to maintain the principle that we are ready to share the ‘cake,’ if there is a ‘cake,’” the email said, according to the new filings.

    Prosecutors said Tuesday that the executives sought to conceal the scheme by using personal, rather than company, emails to communicate about it. The executives also falsified documents to suggest that the company had terminated its relationship with an intermediary who was working with ISIS, according to the new filings.

    Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said Tuesday that “corporate criminals” had “joined hands” with terrorists.

    “In its pursuit of profits, Lafarge and its top executives not only broke the law, they helped finance a violent reign of terror that ISIS and al-Nusrah imposed on the people of Syria,” Monaco said.

    The executives who participated in the scheme were located in France and countries in the Middle East, according to the DOJ’s investigation, and it did not involve employees of the company based in the United States. The conduct ended before the completion of Lafarge’s acquisition by Holcim, its current parent company, the court filings said.

    “Lafarge SA and LCS have accepted responsibility for the actions of the individual executives involved, whose behavior was in flagrant violation of Lafarge’s Code of Conduct. We deeply regret that this conduct occurred and have worked with the U.S. Department of Justice to resolve this matter,” the company said in a statement.

    The company’s dealings with the terrorist group were the subject of an internal investigation several years ago. At the conclusion of that probe, the corporation said that employees of a legacy company were paying off intermediaries without regard to the identity of the groups involved in order to keep operations running and the plant safe as violence escalated in the region.

    “[T]he combination of the war zone chaos and the ‘can-do’ approach to maintain operations in these circumstances may have caused those involved to seriously misjudge the situation and to neglect to focus sufficiently on the legal and reputational implications of their conduct,” Lafarge Holcim, as the company is now known, said in a public statement in 2017.

    Magali Anderson, a top executive at Lafarge, pleaded guilty on behalf of the company.

    This story has been updated with additional details.

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  • Amazon workers vote against forming union in upstate New York, dealing setback to grassroots labor group | CNN Business

    Amazon workers vote against forming union in upstate New York, dealing setback to grassroots labor group | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    Amazon workers in upstate New York have voted against forming a union, dealing another blow to a grassroots labor group attempting to organize several of the tech giant’s US warehouses.

    In total, 406 workers at the Amazon facility near Albany voted against unionizing and 206 voted for it, according to a preliminary tally Tuesday from the National Labor Relations Board. There were some challenged and void ballots, but not a big enough figure to sway the final results.

    Workers at the facility, called ALB1, were seeking to organize with the Amazon Labor Union, the same grassroots worker group that successfully formed the first-ever union at a US Amazon facility in Staten Island, New York, earlier this year. The Albany vote was the ALU’s third attempt to unionize an Amazon warehouse, after it fell short of securing a union win at a smaller Amazon facility also located in Staten Island. It also comes as Amazon has still not formally recognized the union in Staten Island or come to the bargaining table.

    After the vote count concluded on Tuesday, ALU President Chris Smalls said his labor group is “filled with mixed emotions” over the results and pledged: “This won’t be the end of ALU at ALB1.”

    Smalls also accused Amazon of retaliating against union organizers at ALB1, which Amazon has previously denied, and blasted the vote as a “sham election.”

    Amazon, meanwhile, welcomed the results of the election in a statement Tuesday.

    “We’re glad that our team in Albany was able to have their voices heard, and that they chose to keep the direct relationship with Amazon as we think that this is the best arrangement for both our employees and customers,” Kelly Nantel, a spokesperson for Amazon, said in a statement. “We will continue to work directly with our teammates in Albany, as we do everywhere, to keep making Amazon better every day.”

    The Amazon organizing efforts have come amid a broader reawakening of the US labor movement during the pandemic, with some early union victories at companies such as Apple and Starbucks. Smalls, in particular, has emerged as a face of this labor movement since the win in Staten Island, making appearances at the White House and posing with celebrities at the Time 100 summit.

    Smalls previously told CNN Business that the ALU has been fielding an explosion of interest from Amazon workers at other facilities since its original victory. In addition to the ALB1 facility, an Amazon fulfillment center in Moreno Valley, California, also recently submitted a petition for a union election with the ALU.

    But ahead of the Albany vote last week, Smalls appeared to play down the ramifications of the outcome, suggesting the organizing activity itself is a victory. “The expansion of the ALU is definitely historical by itself,” he previously told CNN. “I don’t think nothing’s up for stake.”

    Smalls echoed that sentiment in a tweet on Tuesday before the vote tally kicked off. “Proud of the brave workers of ALB1 regardless of todays results,” he tweeted, adding: “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take!”

    Amazon’s worker-organizers at the Albany facility say they were inspired to form a union after seeing the success of the ALU in Staten Island. Some workers in Albany said they were also motivated to organize after witnessing colleagues get injured on the job. A report from the National Employment Law Project found that the ALB1 facility had the highest rates of “most serious injuries” among all Amazon facilities in the state.

    An Amazon spokesperson previously told CNN Business that Amazon ramped up hiring to meet demand from Covid-19 “and like other companies in the industry, we saw an increase in recordable injuries during this time from 2020 to 2021 as we trained so many new employees.” The spokesperson added that the company has invested billions of dollars in new operations safety measures.

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  • Biden admin has been in touch with Russia in recent days as part of efforts to secure Griner and Whelan’s release | CNN Politics

    Biden admin has been in touch with Russia in recent days as part of efforts to secure Griner and Whelan’s release | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The Biden administration has had communications with Russia to try and secure the release of Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan “as recently as within past days” said a senior administration official, speaking to CNN on Griner’s 32nd birthday, which she will be spending in a Russian jail.

    The United States first put an offer for a prisoner swap on the table with Russia back in June – the details of which CNN exclusively reported – and “conversations have not been static since then” the official said.

    Despite the “pretty persistent” pace of discussions between the US and Russia to secure the Americans’ release, the official said that the Biden administration has yet to receive a serious counteroffer from the Russian side.

    “We have worked hard to try to demonstrate the sorts of things that could well be the basis for resolving this and each time we have articulated that it’s been met not with a serious counteroffer,” the official said.

    They said the Russians have countered with “something not in our control, not in our ability to deliver,” but did not go into further specifics.

    “They’re not non-responsive. I would say that they continue to respond with something that they know not to be feasible or available,” the official said of the Russian response.

    The official said the US has used multiple channels for discussions with the Russians and conversations have taken place both in-person, by phone, and “through other forms.” The US has dangled multiple ideas for “things that could be in play” to urge a serious response from the Russians.

    As negotiations continue, Griner and Whelan both remain behind bars, with the WNBA player detained since February and the ex-Marine detained since December 2018.

    Griner was sentenced to nine years in prison in August, and the US Embassy has not had consular access to her since then, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said last week.

    Griner released a statement on her birthday Tuesday thanking “everyone for fighting so hard to get (her) home.”

    “All the support and love are definitely helping me,” she said in the statement, which was shared by Maria Blagovolina, a partner at Rybalkin, Gortsunyan, Dyakin and Partners law firm.

    The US senior administration said said that “every day is too long” for Griner to remain wrongfully detained.

    “I wish you weren’t spending this birthday in Russian detention. I wish you weren’t spending the past weeks and months there,” the official said in a message to Griner.

    “As far as we’re concerned, each day is too long and we will keep working this until we resolve it and get her home. Regrettably, the other side gets a vote in this. They’re the ones who created this horrific situation. They’re the ones we regrettably need to deal with to resolve it.”

    Next week Griner will appeal her 9-year prison sentence. It is unclear if the passage of that court date will bolster ongoing efforts to get her home.

    “To the extent that that different phases of that decidedly imperfect system pass and open the possibility on the other side of real negotiations, we would welcome that. But the most candid answer is, we don’t know,” the official said.

    President Joe Biden said last week that he would consider meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 in November if he wanted to discuss Griner. When asked if there has been discussion between the US and Russia about that possible meeting on Griner the official said they would let Biden’s remarks “speak for themselves.”

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  • Four takeaways from Utah’s only Senate debate | CNN Politics

    Four takeaways from Utah’s only Senate debate | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Evan McMullin, the independent challenging Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee, said in their only debate Monday night that Lee’s actions around the 2020 election and the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol were “a betrayal of the American republic.”

    Lee, meanwhile, said he accepted that President Joe Biden in 2020 had won the presidency in the “only election that matters – the election held by the Electoral College.” The senator defended his actions that day, pointing to his votes to certify states’ Electoral College results.

    Their clash came on the day elections officials in Utah began mailing ballots to voters.

    McMullin describes himself as conservative but has said he would caucus with neither party if he defeats Lee. He is attempting to unite a coalition of Democrats, independents and anti-Donald Trump Republicans – and he got an assist this spring when Utah Democrats opted to endorse him rather than field their own candidate. But in Utah, even that coalition might not be enough. Trump won 58% of the vote there in 2020.

    McMullin’s entrance into politics came in an effort to serve as an antidote to Trump. He ran for president as an independent against Trump in 2016. He drew 22% of the vote in Utah, well behind Trump’s 46% and Hillary Clinton’s 27%. Among those who voted for McMullin in 2016 was Lee, who said at the time that it “was a protest vote.”

    Here are four takeaways from their Monday night debate:

    McMullin’s sharpest attacks on Lee came after a moderator raised the topic of the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

    “You were there to stand up for our Constitution. But when the barbarians were at the gate, you were happy to let them in,” McMullin said.

    Lee pointed out that ultimately, he accepted the Electoral College vote.

    “Yes, there were people who behaved very badly on that day. I was not one of them. I was one of the people who tried to dismantle that situation,” Lee said.

    McMullin, meanwhile, said Lee only voted to accept states’ electoral votes after no other plan to keep Trump in office materialized.

    “You voted to certify the election in the last moment,” McMullin said. “In the same way that someone knows that a plot that’s not quite working out ought to abandon it, that’s what you did.”

    McMullin repeatedly cited text messages reported by CNN in April between Lee and Trump’s then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows in which the two communicated about efforts to overturn Biden’s victory for weeks.

    In early December 2020, Lee began texting Meadows about the idea that states could submit alternate slates of pro-Trump electors to Congress on January 6. Lee ultimately voted to certify states’ electoral votes.

    McMullin said Lee was working “to keep a president who had been voted out of office, according to the will of the people, in power despite the will of the people.”

    He pointed to Lee’s November 7, 2020, texts to Meadows asking him to help Sidney Powell – one of the most prominent attorneys fronting lawsuits that supported Trump and made accusations of widespread election fraud – get access to Trump.

    He mocked the pocket Constitution that Lee carries, telling the senator that it is “not a prop for you to wave about and then when it’s convenient for your pursuit of power, to abandon without a thought. That’s what you’ve done with that.”

    Lee shot back: “I disagree with everything my opponent just said, including the words ‘but,’ ‘and’ and ‘the.’ An information-free, truth-free statement – that’s something of a record.”

    “There is absolutely nothing to the idea that I ever would have supported or ever did support a fake electors plot,” Lee said. “Nothing. Not a scintilla of evidence suggesting that. Yet you continue to suggest that with a cavalier, reckless disregard for the truth.”

    In an effort to cast Lee as extreme, McMullin invoked Utah’s other GOP senator: Mitt Romney.

    Criticizing Lee’s approach to fiscal measures, McMullin said he “routinely votes against bills that would improve water infrastructure.”

    “Meanwhile, Senator Romney has worked hard and consistently over the last three years,” McMullin said. “He works with Republicans and Democrats, Senator Lee, to deliver for Utah. And he voted in favor of the bipartisan infrastructure bill that you voted against. And now tens of millions of dollars have already been directed to Utah to improve our water infrastructure.”

    Lee responded: “Yeah, I voted against that bill – a bill that spent well over a trillion dollars more than we have on all sorts of things that weren’t appropriately federal.”

    Romney has stayed out of the race.

    Lee, in an appearance last week on Fox, made a plea directed at Romney: “Please get on board. Help me win reelection,” he said. The move seemed designed less to win over Romney than to rile up Lee’s conservative base.

    Trump followed Lee’s pleas to Romney with a statement in which he called McMullin “McMuffin” and said that Lee was being “abused, in an unprecedented way” by Romney.

    Lee said he was “thrilled” with the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that had made abortion legal nationwide. He said he believes states should decide how to regulate abortion.

    “This is where it should remain, because it’s within the states that we can achieve the most consensus and protect the most babies,” Lee said.

    McMullin, meanwhile, sought to find a middle ground on abortion rights, saying that he opposes “abortion on demand” but also opposes state legislation to force young rape victims to carry their pregnancies to term.

    “Some of these bills that I see being passed around the country are extreme,” McMullin said.

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  • Four takeaways from the Georgia governor’s debate | CNN Politics

    Four takeaways from the Georgia governor’s debate | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams sparred over health care, crime and punishment, and voting rights in a Monday debate as they made their closing arguments to voters in a reprise of their fiercely contested 2018 race for the same job.

    The stakes for this night were arguably higher for Abrams, who has trailed in most recent polling of the race. Kemp, one of the few prominent Republicans to resist former President Donald Trump’s lies about a stolen election in 2020, has positioned himself as a more traditional, pro-business conservative – a tack that his gentle resistance to Trump reinforced with swing voters. Abrams has argued that Kemp shouldn’t get any special credit for doing his job and not breaking the law.

    Kemp and Abrams were joined by Libertarian nominee Shane Hazel, who took shots at both his opponents and plainly stated his desire to send the election to a run-off. (If no one receives a clear majority on Election Day, the top two finishers advance to a one-on-one contest.) But it was the two major party candidates, who ran tight campaigns four years ago with Kemp emerging the narrow victor, who dominated the debate stage. Their disagreements were pointed, as they were in 2018, their attacks and rebuttals well-rehearsed and, to a large degree, predictable.

    Here are the four main takeaways from the Georgia governor’s debate:

    Like Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker did in his debate with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock last week, Kemp took every opportunity – and when they weren’t there, tried anyway – to connect Abrams to Biden, who, despite winning the state in 2020, is a deeply unpopular figure there now.

    “I would remind you that Stacey Abrams campaigned to be Joe Biden’s running mate,” Kemp said, referring to the chatter around Abrams potentially being chosen as his running mate two years ago.

    During an exchange with the moderators about abortion, Kemp pivoted to the economy – and again, invoked Biden and Democrats on Capitol Hill.

    “Georgians should know that my desire is to continue to help them fight through 40-year high inflation and high gas prices and other things that our Georgia families are facing right now, quite honestly, because of bad policies in Washington, DC, from President Biden and the Democrats that have complete control,” he said.

    Abrams, unlike so many other Democrats running this year, has not sought to distance herself from the President and recently said publicly that she would welcome him in Georgia. First lady Jill Biden visited last week for an Abrams fundraiser, where she criticized Kemp over his position on abortion as well as his refusal to expand Medicaid and voting rights.

    Early on in the night, Kemp was questioned about remarks he made – taped without his knowledge – at a tailgate with University of Georgia College Republicans in which he expressed some openness to a push to ban contraceptive drugs like “Plan B.”

    Asked if he would pursue such legislation if reelected, Kemp said, “No, I would not” and that “it’s not my desire to” push further abortion restrictions, before pivoting to an attack on Biden, national Democrats and more talk about his economic record.

    Pressed on the remarks, Kemp suggested he was just humoring a group of people he didn’t know.

    On the tape, Kemp, though he didn’t seem enthusiastic, said, “You could take up pretty much everything, but you’ve got to be in legislative session to do that.”

    When asked if it was something he could do, Kemp said, “It just depends on where the legislators are,” and that he’d “have to check and see because there are a lot of legalities.”

    Georgia in 2019 passed and Kemp signed a so-called “heartbeat” bill, which bans abortions at around six weeks, and went into effect soon after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. v. Wade. Before the ruling, abortion was legal in the state until 20 weeks into pregnancy.

    Abrams has promised to work to “reverse” the law, though she would face significant headwinds in the GOP-controlled state legislature, and called the state law “cruel.”

    One of the first questions posed to Abrams centered on her speech effectively – but not with the precise language – conceding the 2018 election to Kemp.

    In those remarks, Abrams made a symbolic point in arguing that she was not conceding the contest, because Kemp, as the state’s top elections official, and his allies had unfairly worked to suppress the vote. Instead, Abrams said then, she would only “acknowledge” him as the winner.

    Some Republicans have tried to make hay over the speech, in a measure of whataboutism usually attached to Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 results. Abrams, apart from a court challenge, never tried to overturn the outcome of her race.

    Still, she was asked on Monday night whether she would accept the results of the coming election – and said yes – before again accusing Kemp of, through the state’s new restrictive voting law, SB 202, seeking to make it more difficult for people to cast ballots.

    “Brian Kemp was the secretary of state,” Abrams said, recalling her opponent’s old job. “He has assiduously denied access to the right to vote.”

    Kemp countered by pointing to high turnout numbers over the past few elections and, as he’s said before, insisted the law made it “easy to vote and hard to cheat.”

    When the candidates were given the chance to question one another, Kemp asked Abrams to name all the sheriffs who had endorsed her campaign.

    The answer, of course, was that most law enforcement groups in the state are behind the Republican – a point he returned to throughout the debate.

    “Mr. Kemp, what you are trying to do is continue the lie that you’ve told so many times I think you believe it’s true. I support law enforcement and did so for 11 years (in state government),” Abrams said. “I worked closely with the sheriff’s association.”

    Abrams also accused Kemp of cynically trying to weaponize criminal justice and public safety issues by pitting her against police. The reality, she said, was less cut-and-dry.

    “Like most Georgians, I lead a complicated life where we need access to help but we also need to know we are safe from racial violence,” she said, before turning to Kemp. “While you might not have had that experience, too many people I know, have.”

    Kemp, though, kept the message simple. “I support safety and justice,” he said, often pointing to his anti-gang initiatives – especially when he was pressed on the effect of his loosening gun laws on crime.

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  • Burst of cold air: Here is who will see freezing temperatures this week | CNN

    Burst of cold air: Here is who will see freezing temperatures this week | CNN

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    Editor’s Note: A version of this article originally appeared in the weekly weather newsletter, the CNN Weather Brief, which is released every Monday. You can sign up here to receive them every week and during significant storms.



    CNN
     — 

    Winter is coming for many this week, with the first significant snow of the season for some, and freezing temperatures for millions of others.

    It was just last week we were talking about cute fall temperatures, and now someone has flipped a switch to winter. This will be – by far – the coldest air of the season to this point.

    So brace yourself, as I am planning to do.

    “Afternoon highs today will definitely feel cold!” the National Weather Service office in Nashville said.

    Along with temperatures running 15-25 degrees below normal for much of the East, winds will be strong, making it feel even colder. Nashville will only get into the mid-50s to right around 60 today, with a bone-chilling wind chill.

    Atlanta will be colder than New York City on Tuesday, with highs only making it to the low 50s.

    Tuesday night will be even colder, with lows in the 20s as far south as portions of Arkansas and Tennessee.

    “Tuesday night will be the coldest night … with all locations expected to be below freezing,” the weather service in Nashville said. “Even Nashville metro should freeze.”

    CNN Weather

    The Weather Prediction Center said many cool daytime high and overnight low temperature records could be broken because of the cold air Monday and Tuesday.

    “This may be the first freeze of the season for many places across the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys which will impact sensitive crops/livestock,” the Weather Prediction Center said.

    Here are some major cities expecting lows below freezing this week:

    • Kansas City
    • St. Louis
    • Memphis
    • Nashville
    • Atlanta

    See how low the temperatures will drop where you live.

    In the Upper Midwest, there will be even bigger impacts. A winter storm warning is in effect for portions of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and northern Wisconsin, where 4-8 inches of snow could fall through Wednesday.

    However, it won’t be shocking to see an isolated area or two get as much as a foot of snow with the potent early-season system.

    “Guidance continues to indicate potentially historic early-season snowfall across the eastern UP, which when combined with northerly winds to 50 mph and lingering fall foliage could result in widespread power outages,” the weather service in Marquette warned.

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  • With product innovation lagging, Silicon Valley bets on a fresh coat of paint | CNN Business

    With product innovation lagging, Silicon Valley bets on a fresh coat of paint | CNN Business

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    CNN Business
     — 

    When Google unveiled its new Pixel 7 smartphone lineup earlier this month, the devices looked largely the same as the year prior. But there was at least one subtle change: the colors.

    Whereas the Pixel 6 had come in sorta seafoam (a light blue) and kinda coral (a pale pink), the Pixel 7 now comes in lemongrass (a green) and snow (off-white). Google has also swapped the stormy black (a stormy black) option on the Pixel 6 for obsidian (still black) on the Pixel 7.

    The emphasis on a new color palette for devices isn’t unique to Google. As tech companies showed off their latest smartphones, tablets and laptops at splashy press events over the last two months, many of the products had only limited changes on the outside but boasted elaborately named color options.

    Microsoft launched its Surface Pro 9 tablet in shades such as sapphire (blue) and forest (green), and its Surface Laptop 5 comes in metal (silver), sage (green) and sandstone (tan). Apple’s new iPhone 14 lineup comes in Starlight (a champagne color) and midnight (black), and the company has previously unveiled two shades of green (“green” and “alpine green”) and purple (“purple” and “deep purple”).

    Purple, in particular, has been having a moment in tech. Earlier this summer, Samsung unveiled a “bora purple” color for its flagship Galaxy S22 smartphone — the word “bora” in Korean translates to “purple,” effectively dubbing the color “purple purple.”

    At a time when many of the biggest upgrades to smartphones and other gadgets are under the hood, drumming up consumer interest with a fresh coat of paint may be easier in some ways than getting people excited about faster processors.

    “The quality of all phones is so high, it’s getting difficult for consumers to even notice what ‘better’ is anymore,” said Kelly Goldsmith, professor of marketing at Vanderbilt University. “As a result, tech brands need to adopt new strategies. Introducing different, niche colors is just one way to do it.”

    For consumers, there can be a real value to a broader range of colors. “Devices — whether they’re smartphones, wearables, PCs, or tablets — are an extension of the user’s persona, both in terms of who they are and who they aspire to be,” said Ramon Llamas, an analyst at IDC Research. “Introducing a different color is a way for devices and their owners to distinguish themselves.”

    But just as basic black, white, gray and silver are the top colors in the automobile industry, these colors tend to resonate most with smartphone owners, according to Peggy Van Allen, a color anthropologist for the Color Marketing Group. Still, she noted, a shift has been underway toward stronger colors.

    The Pixel 7 comes in obsidian, snow and lemongrass. The Pixel 7 Pro is available in obsidian, snow and hazel.

    Apple famously brought “Bondi Blue” to its Mac line in the late 1990s after Steve Jobs’ return to the company (it was a huge success). More recently, it created a splash with the introduction of the rose gold iPhone in 2015.

    “Warm metallics went away and then came back in style, and rose gold really reached mass appeal,” Van Allen said. “It peaked at a time when social media influencers were gobbling it up, and the popularity of Millennial Pink also helped to usher it in.”

    Both pinks lasted longer than most forecasters would have predicted, she said. “It was carried along by other trends of the time that enforced the desire for personalization and female empowerment.”

    The names of more recent colors have become increasingly esoteric in the last year or so. This is also likely a strategic play, according to Barbara Kahn, a professor of marketing at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

    “Color names that are descriptive but odd can spark positive reactions because the consumer likes being able to ‘solve the puzzle,’” she said. “Color names that are ambiguous also spark attention and customers work to figure out what the meaning might be.”

    But for all the varied colors out there, it’s important to remember customers still overwhelmingly keep their phones in a case, essentially covering up the color that once helped entice them to upgrade.

    “There are some transparent cases available from both first and third parties,” said Eric Abbruzzese, research director at market research firm ABI Research, “but at least anecdotally, they don’t seem as popular as regular cases.”

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  • Arizona Attorney General’s office asks for federal investigation of conservative nonprofit True the Vote | CNN Politics

    Arizona Attorney General’s office asks for federal investigation of conservative nonprofit True the Vote | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    The Arizona Attorney General’s office has asked for a federal investigation related to potential violations of the Internal Revenue Code by the conservative nonprofit True the Vote, which claims to be trying to expose voter fraud.

    An investigator in Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich’s office, Reginald Grigsby, said in a letter that the group has “raised considerable sums of money alleging they had evidence of widespread voter fraud” but has failed to provide any evidence to its office, despite publicly indicating they had shared the information with law enforcement agencies.

    “Given TTV’s status as a nonprofit organization, it would appear that further review of its financials may be warranted,” the letter, released on Friday, reads in a striking move for an office overseen by a Republican. Brnovich had sought to win over former President Donald Trump and his supporters in his unsuccessful bid for the nomination for Senate earlier this year.

    Grigsby detailed three meetings representatives from the attorney general’s office had with Catherine Engelbrecht, who founded the Texas-based nonprofit, and Gregg Phillips, who is a contracted partner.

    The meetings were spread out over a year – the first took place in June 2021 and the following two occurred in April and June of this year. Grigsby said prior to each meeting, Engelbrecht and Phillips said they would provide the attorney general’s office with information to support their claims of voter fraud but they never provided any so-called evidence.

    In a statement, True the Vote called the letter “false” and said it “smacks of retribution for the AG’s own decision to ignore suspicious voting activity.” The statement also countered that its hard drive of data is “available to any law enforcement agency which issues a lawful subpoena for the data” and said that it “has documentary records of correspondence with the State of Arizona and the FBI, detailing the evidence and its limitations.”

    In its letter, the attorney general’s office stated that it had requested the information by electronic and US mail and by leaving voicemails after the latest in-person meeting, but it did not indicate whether it had formally subpoenaed the data.

    An IRS spokesperson told CNN, “Due to privacy regulations, the IRS will not comment on the status of an individual or organization.”

    True the Vote and Engelbrecht have advanced claims of election-fraud for years. But the group recently gained new prominence through the film, “2000 Mules” produced by conservative filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza. It claims “mules” were used to illegally collect and deliver ballots to drop boxes in key states in the 2020 election.

    True the Vote has said it purchased cellphone geo-tracking data to identify devices that went repeatedly near drop boxes and certain nonprofits ahead of the election to advance the argument that illegal ballot harvesting occurred in key swing states.

    Multiple fact-checkers have debunked those claims. And in testimony that aired during a hearing of the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, former Attorney General William Barr called the film’s premise flawed.

    The film has been touted by Trump and some Trump-aligned candidates. Earlier this year, the former President hosted a screening of the film at Mar-a-Lago, his waterfront Florida resort and home.

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  • Herschel Walker defends use of ‘honorary’ sheriff’s badge in Georgia Senate debate | CNN Politics

    Herschel Walker defends use of ‘honorary’ sheriff’s badge in Georgia Senate debate | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker defended pulling out a sheriff’s badge during Friday’s closely watched debate in Georgia, telling NBC in an interview that aired on Sunday it was “a legit,” but honorary badge from his hometown sheriff’s department.

    Walker had pulled out the badge during a discussion over support for police – in a move that was admonished by the debate moderators and led to widespread mockery from Democrats.

    “This is from my hometown. This is from Johnson County from the sheriff from Johnson County, which is a legit badge,” Walker told NBC’s Kristen Welker in a clip from the interview.

    A CNN fact check found Walker has never had a job in law enforcement. He has publicized a card showing that he was at some point after 2004 named an “honorary agent” and “special deputy sheriff” in Cobb County, Georgia – titles that do not confer arrest authority.

    The contest between Walker and Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is one of the most important Senate races in the country, representing a key state Democrats must hold to have any chance to keep control of the Senate next year. The race has recently been rocked by allegations that Walker paid for a woman’s abortion and encouraged her to have another one – allegations the Republican has repeatedly denied and that CNN has not independently confirmed.

    A survey released earlier this month, which was conducted after the allegations emerged, found Warnock with 52% support among likely voters to 45% for Walker, about the same as in a mid-September poll.

    During Friday’s debate, Walker had accused Warnock of calling officers “names” and caused “morale” to plummet, but the Democrat cited a false claim from Walker that he had previously served in law enforcement.

    “One thing that I haven’t done is I haven’t pretended to be a police officer and I’ve never, ever threatened a shootout with police,” Warnock said, alluding to a more than two-decade-old police report in which the Republican discussed exchanging gunfire with police.

    “Everyone can make fun,” Walker said in the NBC interview, arguing that the badge means he has “the right to work with the police getting things done.”

    Walker, however, later admitted it was an “honorary badge” and pushed back against the idea, which NBC’s Welker read from a National Sheriffs’ Association statement, that such badges should be left in a “trophy case.”

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  • As Democrats try to hold on in November, it’s Pete Buttigieg who’s in demand on the campaign trail | CNN Politics

    As Democrats try to hold on in November, it’s Pete Buttigieg who’s in demand on the campaign trail | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    A selfie crowd formed around Pete Buttigieg as he stood in line for coffee at the airport in Washington.

    One woman said she wasn’t going to stop because she wasn’t sure it was him. “It’s me,” the Transportation secretary replied.

    An older man explained to his wife, “That’s Pete BOOT-GUG,” missing the pronunciation and the emphasis.

    “He’s the President’s…” the man said, unable to come up with his job title.

    And yet, it’s Buttigieg – whose only political experience before his failed presidential bid was serving as mayor of South Bend, Indiana – who has become the most requested surrogate on the campaign trail for Democratic candidates in the midterms, people familiar with the requests tell CNN. He’s so in demand that he’s getting more requests than Vice President Kamala Harris, those sources tell CNN – but still fewer than President Joe Biden – as Democrats look to defend their narrow congressional majorities and win governor’s races in November.

    With invitations flowing into the White House and the Democratic National Committee, a relatively low-ranking Cabinet secretary’s staff has to choose between Democratic candidates trying to chase him down. There’s no precedent for this. But there’s also no precedent for the winner of the Iowa caucuses becoming Transportation secretary and proving more agile on camera than the vice president and Biden.

    Both Buttigieg and Harris are widely expected to run to succeed Biden – whether an open race emerges in 2024 or 2028 – and for Democrats looking ahead, the party’s preference for Buttigieg on the trail may be an early indicator of the future direction of the party overall.

    Two dozen operatives and candidates tell CNN they think Buttigieg is benefiting from the desire for a fresh face. Despite a steady uptick since the summer, Biden’s approval ratings are low, and Democrats believe that’s hurting Harris too, who has had her own political struggles – even as much of the administration’s agenda remains broadly popular.

    “It’s the association with being a Democrat – but not with Biden or Harris,” said one operative involved in multiple House races, explaining why campaigns have been gravitating to Buttigieg. “In the context of what people have to pick from, he’s very popular.”

    It’s not just about popularity. Some campaign operatives admit, with a note of embarrassment, they have been reluctant to invite Harris out of fear that would bring scrutiny from Republicans who monitor every word she says in ways Buttigieg rarely has to worry about, leaving candidates as collateral damage in an attack (fairly or unfairly) aimed at the first Black woman vice president.

    And some point to the basics of tight campaign budgets in the final stretch of the midterms: the vice president’s security footprint is large, and when she travels for politics, some of the costs for the Secret Service and local police protection have to be covered by the campaigns that are bringing her in. Even just a few hours on the ground can run tens of thousands of dollars and create traffic and other hold ups.

    Buttigieg, by contrast, can travel with just a member of the Protective Services Division squished beside him in coach on a commercial flight. Harris only meets people who’ve been wanded by the Secret Service and tested for Covid-19, while Buttigieg can go to political events making his way through the airport in the reverse of his campaign trail style – suit jacket on now, but no tie.

    White House political aides “recognize the dexterity and want to dispatch him to places that he uniquely can go and where Democrats don’t traditionally campaign,” said one person familiar with Buttigieg’s plans taking shape.

    That’s in contrast to the vice president’s team, which has been hoping to rebuild her standing by keeping her away from many tight races and focused largely on Black voters, among whom she remains very popular, and on women as she talks about abortion rights, arguing that she can have a large influence indirectly.

    Aides to a West Coast House Democrat in a very competitive race were debating who was going to be their one big ask in the final stretch. The President? The vice president? The first lady?

    “A senior staffer on our campaign says, ‘Throwing in two cents from our finance director – our San Francisco people have expressed that they don’t really care about POTUS, VPOTUS or the first lady. … They just really like Secretary Pete,’” recounted one of the aides.

    One Biden adviser highlighted an intentional deployment of the Cabinet over the final month in races where they think they’ll matter most, urging them to appear in their personal capacities to avoid violating the Hatch Act provisions on not mixing government work with campaigning. Only a few secretaries beyond Buttigieg, though, have generated much interest: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge. Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough, rarely much of a political presence, will also hit the trail soon for a few events.

    But of those, Buttigieg is the only one who shows up in early presidential polls. He’s the one who was invited to address House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s retreat for top donors in Napa Valley in August. He’s the one who’s already headlined an event for Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto, seen as perhaps the most endangered Democrat in the Senate, and for Nan Whaley, the Democratic nominee for Ohio governor.

    Buttigieg, who came in a close second in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary, was state party officials’ top choice to headline their big fall fundraising dinner, according to party officials, even before a poll that came out in late July showing him leading the field for a theoretical New Hampshire primary, essentially tied with Biden but edging out Harris by 11 percentage points.

    To the surprise of some in New Hampshire, the White House political office greenlit the invitation not long after. Tickets sold out.

    The morning of the New Hampshire speech, state Rep. Matt Wilhelm proudly tweeted a photo of a “BOOT EDGE EDGE” mug he had left over from when he’d endorsed and volunteered on his presidential campaign two years ago.

    “When I was asked by the party, ‘Who do we want as a surrogate?’ not only was I supportive of Pete, because yeah, I want him back here, but I think that he’s the kind of messenger that we want on the ground to get people fired up ahead of the midterms,” Wilhelm said. He remains very popular in the state, added Rep. Annie Kuster, who’d endorsed him in 2020 and had him headline a fundraiser for her campaign this year.

    The synth-horn notes of “High Hopes,” his old campaign anthem, played as Buttigieg took the stage. He hadn’t done a big political speech in two years. And while rattling off Biden administration accomplishments – like putting Ketanji Brown Jackson on the Supreme Court and signing bipartisan legislation providing health care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits – he had some rusty moments working out new lines.

    “Most Americans don’t need culture wars every time there’s a gay Muppet or Black mermaid on TV – we need funding for our public schools,” he said in one riff.

    But it all built to a very Buttigieg centerpiece, intended to generate knowing smirks more than laughs, and metered out to invite the standing ovation he got.

    “Teddy Roosevelt had the square deal. FDR had the New Deal. So I’m going to say this body of defining achievements, this incredibly productive year, amounts to such a big deal that we ought to just call it The Big Deal,” Buttigieg said, putting that up against Republicans’ “big lie” that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.

    “And if, in the tradition of our President, you like to insert an extra adjective in there, feel free.”

    He ended with a passage that could one day drop right into a political convention speech, soaring past Biden or the infrastructure law or any more Trump mentions, to an aspirational line about building a “truly representative, fully inclusive, multi-racial, democratic republic like the one that has been under constant construction here on US soil for the last 200 years.”

    “This is somebody who really believes in the promise of democracy and in delivering results,” Sen. Maggie Hassan said after the final standing ovation for Buttigieg. “And we have seen him delivering results. And his pragmatic approach really means a lot to people here.” Hassan, who is facing a competitive reelection after winning her first term by only 1,017 votes, also had Buttigieg headline a fundraiser for her in Washington earlier this summer.

    Two weeks later, on another Saturday night, Harris was the featured speaker at the Texas Democrats’ big dinner in Austin. Every statewide Democratic candidate skipped, except the nominee for state railroad commissioner. Tickets were not as hard to get, though the state chair said it was their highest grossing event ever, and some took note that several state legislators from other parts of the state specifically flew in to be there.

    Harris’ stump speeches tend to be more grounded and direct, much like she is herself.

    She rooted her Austin speech in home turf stories about former Rep. Barbara Jordan and Lyndon Johnson, leading an enthusiastic call and response. She built up to a line she has often used, paraphrasing, she recalled, “the words of a great American leader, Coretta Scott King, who said: The struggle for justice is a never-ending process. And freedom is never really won; you earn it, and you win it in each and every generation.”

    Even though the White House political office lets Harris’ team pick her spots and write her speeches, she can’t stray far. When she talks up Biden’s record, she has to be subsumed to the President. She can’t put her own spin on it, aside from occasional moments, such as two days after Biden rolled out his marijuana policy changes without her in the frame, when she said, “Nobody should have to go to jail for smoking weed.”

    Harris discusses reproductive rights at the LBJ Presidential Library on October 8, 2022, in Austin, Texas.

    “There’s a house that Joe Biden built – it’s got a bunch of rooms, and as vice president you can choose which of the rooms you sit in. But you’ve got to be in Joe Biden’s house,” a Harris adviser said recently, trying to come up with a metaphor to describe the dynamics within the administration.

    That reality – in addition to the different political landscapes in the two states – helps explains the different responses Buttigieg and Harris received in New Hampshire and Texas.

    “The administration does not have a good brand in Texas – and that’s Joe Biden or Kamala Harris,” said one of the attendees at the Austin event who asked not to be named.

    By contrast, being part of the administration has benefits for Buttigieg – without some of the burdens Harris faces. Since he’s doling out federal dollars in his official capacity, politicians like to be seen with him. At the dinner in New Hampshire, nearly every speaker made a joke about how they hoped he’d come back with another big check for an infrastructure project.

    This past Wednesday in South Carolina, House Majority Whip Rep. Jim Clyburn – a key Biden supporter, and a promoter of Harris – spent the day with the secretary, going around with him to multiple events.

    But he said he had been eager to have Harris appear at the South Carolina Democratic Party dinner in June, and noted that she was in the critical early primary state again at his alma mater just a few weeks ago.

    “When you’re bringing her in, there’s a cost factor that goes far beyond what most Democratic Party folks can afford,” Clyburn said, not the expense of Air Force 2. “When we were bringing her to South Carolina, it was a real big problem. In fact, yours truly had to step up to help the party be able to afford it.”

    That speech, to an enthusiastic room in Columbia, was warmly received. Clyburn called the money he’d kicked in from his own campaign account “money well spent.”

    Buttigieg is both self-aware enough to know that any move suggesting presidential thinking would almost certainly leak and self-confident enough to believe he doesn’t need to start laying the groundwork for a campaign now.

    People in Buttigieg’s orbit and the secretary himself try to downplay any presidential speculation, and any suggestion of tension between the once and possible future rivals. People in Harris’ orbit say that they don’t spend much time thinking about the Transportation secretary, but when they do, they’re often left feeling he gets a pass on moves that for her would be seen as machinations.

    “The future is Joe Biden is going to run for reelection in 2024 – so what’s the point of thinking beyond that?” said one Buttigieg adviser.

    In the airport coffee line, though, a woman shrugged as her husband tried to explain who Buttigieg was after mispronouncing his name.

    “I would not have known him if he bought my coffee,” she said.

    That’s the downside for Buttigieg. Not far away, a stand was selling Harris bobbleheads and a T-shirt with her face on it.

    CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated to more accurately reflect the demand for tickets for Harris’ Austin event, which was the highest grossing event ever for the state party, according to its chair.

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  • Gunmen kill 12 people in Mexico bar | CNN

    Gunmen kill 12 people in Mexico bar | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    Mexican authorities are searching for gunmen who killed at least 12 people and injured three more after opening fire in a bar in central Mexico on Saturday evening.

    Gunshots were reported at the bar in the city of Irapuato in the central state of Guanajuato at close to 8 p.m. local time Saturday, the city’s Secretary of Citizen Safety said in a statement.

    Paramedics confirmed the deaths of six men and six women after arriving on scene, according to the statement. It is unclear who the victims are and how many gunmen were involved in the shooting.

    A search operation for the attackers is underway with support from Guanajuato’s Secretary for Public Safety as well as the state’s prosecutor general’s office, the Secretary of National Defense, and the National Guard.

    This is the second mass shooting in less than a month in the state of Guanajuato, which has been convulsed in recent years by brutal turf wars between rival drug gangs, according to Reuters.

    The state is a major manufacturing hub and production site for many of the world’s top carmakers.

    It is attractive to drug cartels for the same reason it is to auto manufacturers: road and rail networks that lead straight to the US border.

    President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has struggled to deal with gang violence since taking office in late 2018, according to Reuters.

    Although the number of homicides has fallen slightly this year, Lopez Obrador’s term is set to be the bloodiest in recent history.

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  • Kari Lake doesn’t commit to accepting Arizona election result if she loses | CNN Politics

    Kari Lake doesn’t commit to accepting Arizona election result if she loses | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Arizona Republican Kari Lake would not commit Sunday to accepting the results of her upcoming election for governor if she loses.

    “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result,” the GOP nominee told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” after being asked three times whether she would accept the election’s outcome. Lake dodged the question the first two times.

    “If you lose, will you accept that?” Bash asked, to which Lake replied again: “I’m going to win the election, and I will accept that result.”

    Lake, who has the backing of former President Donald Trump, has repeatedly promoted his false claims about the 2020 election. A former news anchor at a local Fox station in Phoenix, she has said that she would not have certified President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Arizona, repeatedly calling the election “stolen” and “corrupt.” She said Sunday that the “real issue” is that “the people don’t trust our elections.”

    Lake is currently in a close race with her Democratic opponent, Katie Hobbs, who currently serves as Arizona’s secretary of state. Hobbs’ national profile rose in the aftermath of the 2020 election amid Republican efforts to sow doubt over the presidential result in Arizona.

    In a separate appearance on “State of the Union” on Sunday, directly following Lake’s interview, Hobbs said Lake’s refusal to say whether she would accept the results of their election was “disqualifying.”

    “This is somebody who will have a level of authority over our state’s elections, the ability to sign new legislation into law, the responsibility of certifying future elections. And she has not only, as you heard, refused to say if she will accept the results of this election, but also whether or not she would certify the 2024 presidential election if she’s governor,” Hobbs said.

    She continued, “This is disqualifying. This is a basic core of our democracy.”

    Hobbs on Sunday defended her refusal to debate Lake in the gubernatorial election, saying the Republican was “only interested in creating a spectacle.” Hobbs said she believed Arizonans would not base their voting decision on whether or not there was a debate between the two candidates.

    Lake had earlier slammed Hobbs’ decision not to engage in a debate, accusing her opponent of “cowardice.”

    Hobbs explains why she won’t debate Kari Lake

    Bash pressed Hobbs on her stance on abortion rights, and the Democrat declined to specify what, if any, restrictions she would support in an abortion law.

    “So just to be clear, if you become governor, you will push for a law that has absolutely no limits in any point of the pregnancy on abortion? That’s your position? That’s what you would want to be the law of the land in Arizona?” Bash asked.

    Hobbs responded: “The fact is right now that we have very limited options and that we need to get politicians out of the way and let doctors provide the care that they are trained to provide, the health care that their patients need. Politicians don’t belong in those decisions.”

    An Arizona appeals court earlier this month temporarily blocked the enforcement of a ban on nearly all abortions across the state. The ruling temporarily allows health care providers to perform abortions up to 15 weeks of pregnancy until Planned Parenthood Arizona’s appeal is resolved.

    Abortion has been a key issue in this year’s midterm elections following the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn of Roe v. Wade that held there was no longer a federal constitutional right to an abortion. A recent survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that about half of US registered voters said they were more motivated to vote in the midterm elections because of the high court’s abortion ruling.

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  • Democratic Senate nominees hold cash edge in fall home stretch but face GOP advertising onslaught | CNN Politics

    Democratic Senate nominees hold cash edge in fall home stretch but face GOP advertising onslaught | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Seven Democrats in the 10 most competitive Senate races started this month and the home stretch to Election Day with bigger cash stockpiles than their Republican rivals, newly filed campaign finance reports show.

    But even with that financial edge, Democrats face a withering advertising assault in the final weeks of the campaign from deep-pocketed outside groups.

    The stakes are enormous for both political parties: Control of the Senate – along with the ability to shape federal policy for the remainder of President Joe Biden’s first term – hinges on the results in just a handful of states.

    The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, led GOP outside groups in fundraising, taking in $111 million during the three-month period ending September 30, the new filings show. That figure rivaled its haul during the first 18 months of this election cycle as some of the GOP’s biggest donors stepped up their giving.

    “SLF is steadily closing the gap in the fight to retake the Senate majority, and our donors are fired up about slamming the brakes on Joe Biden’s disastrous left-wing agenda,” group president Steve Law said in a statement.

    In all, the fund has spent more than $200 million on advertising this cycle, including ads that have already aired and reservations booked for the final weeks of the election, according to a CNN review of data compiled by AdImpact.

    The McConnell-aligned group “has really been a life raft for Republican Senate candidates across the board that have struggled to fundraise in any great amount,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst with the nonpartisan political handicapper Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. “What we see in state after state after state is the advertising burden being borne by SLF and outside groups.”

    Here are more takeaways from the third-quarter fundraising reports filed with the Federal Election Commission:

    The reports, which were due Saturday night, show individual Democratic Senate contenders outraising their Republican rivals in a slew of competitive races – including marquee contests in Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    Democrats in all four of those states – Sens. Raphael Warnock of Georgia and Mark Kelly of Arizona; John Fetterman of Pennsylvania; and Mandela Barnes of Wisconsin – each collected more than $20 million during the quarter. That was a milestone no Republican Senate hopeful in a competitive race was able to match.

    Warnock, Kelly and Fetterman all ended September with more cash on hand than their GOP opponents. Four other states on CNN’s most recent list of the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip also saw the Democratic nominees finish with a bigger bank balance on September 30: Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, and North Carolina hopeful Cheri Beasley.

    Warnock, in pursuit of a full six-year term after winning a special election last year, brought in $26.4 million during the June-to-September fundraising period, to lead all Senate candidate fundraising. His haul is more than double the nearly $11.7 million raised by his Republican rival, Herschel Walker.

    Those figures, however, don’t reflect fundraising since a recent spate of developments in the Georgia contest – including a contentious debate Friday night in Savannah.

    National Republicans have rallied to Walker’s side in recent weeks, following news reports that the Republican paid for a woman’s abortion in 2009 and then asked her to terminate a second pregnancy two years later.

    Walker, who said in May that he supported a full ban on abortions, with no exceptions, has called the allegations “a lie.” CNN has not independently confirmed the woman’s allegations.

    In a statement, Walker’s aides said the campaign bought in more than $450,000 online in a single day recently – as prominent Republicans, including Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who helms the Senate GOP campaign arm – joined him on the stump in an effort to quell the controversy.

    Although Warnock has used his sizable war chest to hammer Walker on the airwaves, a CNN review of advertising buys from October 1 through Election Day tracked by AdImpact shows outside groups, led by the Senate Leadership Fund, dominating the advertising in the Peach State.

    SLF’s advertising tops the list at $25.2 million with Georgia Honor, a Democratic super PAC, in second place at just shy of $21.7 million.

    Top donors to the Senate Leadership Fund during the third quarter included some of the biggest financial backers in Republican politics. Leading the list at $10 million apiece were three billionaires: Miriam Adelson, a physician and widow of the late casino magnate Sheldon Adelson; Ken Griffin, founder of the Citadel hedge fund; and Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman. The Senate Leadership Fund’s haul also included $20 million from its nonprofit arm, One Nation, which does not disclose its donors’ identities.

    SLF entered October sitting atop $85.2 million in cash reserves.

    (The Senate Majority PAC, the leading super PAC working to elect Democrats to the chamber, is slated to file a report detailing its most recent fundraising later this week. The group reported more than $65.7 million remaining in the bank at the end of August.)

    Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly is seeking a full six-year term.

    Kelly, the Democratic incumbent in Arizona, raised $23 million in the June-to-September window, more than four times the contributions collected by his Republican challenger, Blake Masters, the new filings show.

    And Kelly, who is seeking a full six-year term, started October with more than $13 million remaining in the bank – far surpassing the $2.8 million available to Masters.

    National Republican leaders have exhorted billionaire investor Peter Thiel to put more money into the Arizona race to rescue Masters, his former employee. (An initial $15 million Thiel sent to a pro-Masters super PAC, Saving Arizona, helped the first-time candidate survive a competitive primary earlier this year.)

    Saturday’s filings show Saving Arizona raised a little more than $4.4 million during the third quarter with no additional investment during that period from Thiel.

    Among the biggest donors in the three-month period: Shipping and packaging magnate Richard Uihlein, who gave $3 million. And Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, the billionaire twin investors perhaps best known for their legal battle with Mark Zuckerberg over who invented Facebook, donated $500,000 apiece to the super PAC last month.

    Republican Tiffany Smiley is challenging Democratic Sen. Patty Murray in Washington state.

    A notable exception to Democrats’ fundraising dominance: Washington state, where first-time candidate Republican Tiffany Smiley raised $6 million to surpass the $3.6 million brought in by five-term Sen. Patty Murray during the three-month period.

    National Republican groups have not invested so far in trying to topple Murray, the No. 3 Senate Democrat, in this traditionally blue state. (Inside Elections rates the contest as Likely Democratic.)

    But Smiley’s late-breaking fundraising success has put a spotlight on the 39-year-old former triage nurse, who is waging her first political campaign.

    Murray entered October with the larger stockpile of available cash – roughly $3.8 million to Smiley’s nearly $2.5 million.

    Meanwhile, in Ohio – a former bellwether state that has swung to Republicans in recent cycles – Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan raised a substantial $17.2 million, with Republican J.D. Vance lagging far behind in their closer-than-expected contest.

    Ryan, who has plowed millions of his campaign dollars into advertising, started October with just $1.4 million remaining in the bank to Vance’s nearly $3.4 million. Ryan, a 10-term congressman, has implored national Democratic organizations to help, but they have prioritized other top-tier contests in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

    SLF and, more recently, a super PAC aligned with former President Donald Trump, have hit the airwaves on Vance’s behalf in an effort to keep this open Senate seat in the Republican column.

    The current officeholder, GOP Sen. Rob Portman, is retiring.

    In the 19 House races that Inside Elections currently rates as Toss-ups, the Democratic nominees outraised their GOP opponents during the third quarter, the weekend filings show. And a dozen entered October with more cash in the bank than their Republican rivals.

    In one of the mostly closely watched contests, Alaska’s newly minted congresswoman, Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, collected nearly $4 million during the quarter – including $2.3 million raised after she won an August special election to fill the remainder of the late GOP Rep. Don Young’s term.

    Peltola is on the ballot again in November as she seeks a full, two-year term for the state’s lone House seat, and she started October with more than $2.2 million in available cash. That far exceeds the cash balances of her Republican rivals, Nick Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin.

    Begich reported more than $547,000 in available cash and Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, had nearly $195,000.

    The three, along with a Libertarian candidate, will face off next month in a general election that will be decided by the state’s new ranked-choice voting system.

    As in Senate contests, Republican outside groups have been major players in the battle to flip the House.

    The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main super PAC focused on GOP efforts to recapture the House majority, recently announced that the group and its nonprofit arm had raised a combined $73 million in the third quarter, bringing its cycle total to $220 million.

    It has spent nearly $160 million on advertising, including future reservations for the final weeks of the campaign.

    This story has been updated with additional third-quarter fundraising information.

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