(Bloomberg) — A selloff in the world’s largest tech companies weighed heavily on stocks, while Treasury yields climbed amid bets the Federal Reserve will take a more measured approach on rate cuts.
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Equities extended losses into a third straight day, with the S&P 500 breaking below 5,800. Nvidia Corp. tumbled 4%, leading megacaps lower. Apple Inc. slid 3% after a closely followed analyst said iPhone 16 orders were cut by about 10 million units from the fourth quarter through the first half of 2025. As Tesla Inc. gets ready to report its results, Wall Street will be watching for signs that slowing sales are close to a trough.
FED: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LITTLE CHANGED IN NEARLY ALL DISTRICTS
Investors face a number of risks that could be making them less willing to jump into the market: The next three weeks capture big tech earnings, October’s payrolls report, and the US election, followed by the Fed meeting. In another sign of Wall Street’s perception of future risk, the term premium on 10-year Treasury notes — an expression of the extra yield investors demand for owning the debt rather than rolling over shorter-term securities — hit the highest since November.
“This is about price exhaustion, this is about election exhaustion, it’s about campaign exhaustion, it’s about Fed exhaustion, it’s about policy exhaustion, it’s about geopolitical exhaustion,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “It’s about how stocks are stretched and it’s about the need for stocks to retreat, test lower, shake the branches, see who falls out and then move on.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.3%. Boeing Co. dropped after signaling the company’s woes will take time to fix. Qualcomm Inc. got hit as Arm Holdings Plc canceled a license that allowed the company to use Arm’s intellectual property to design chips. Texas Instruments Inc. climbed after its results.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.25%. A $13 billion sale of 20-year bonds tailed at the highest yield since May. The dollar rose against all of its Group-of-10 peers, on pace for its best month since 2022. The yen hit the lowest in almost three months, reviving concern that Japan may intervene. The loonie slid after the Bank of Canada stepped up the pace of easing.
Oil dropped as US crude inventories rose and the Biden administration renewed efforts to secure a cease-fire in the Middle East. Gold declined from a record.
To Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG, equities are finally noticing the moves in bonds and the dollar. That’s a stark contrast to the moves in the last couple of weeks. The bullish narrative was that bonds were re-pricing to where they should be based on the stronger-than-anticipated economy, he noted.
“While that might be fair in the big picture, markets are always concerned with the velocity of the move rather than the overall level, and the fact that stocks didn’t flinch in the face of those moves suggested complacency,” Krinsky said. Whether this is the start of the pre-election jitters or not, we continue to see downside risk for equities broadly over the coming weeks, with an SPX pullback into the 5,500-5,650 zone a decent probability.”
Swap prices reflect less than a 100% certainty that the central bank reduces rates at each of its two remaining policy meetings this year. The bond market is also trimming bets on the degree of Fed rate reductions over the next year. Traders will get more clarity next week on how much officials are likely to ease, with the release of a key labor-market reading for October.
“The price of options to hedge against Treasury losses is soaring,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “In the US, it is about the election and potential sweep. That is what is being built into the rate structure, which is giving the vigilantes the green light. It will reverse, but it might take a severe employment number or a surprise in the election.”
“We would caution investors from reading too much into the recent rise in bond yields,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co. “Over the past six major Fed rate-cutting cycles, the change in the 10-year Treasury yield a month after the first cut has not provided a consistent signal about the magnitude of further cuts or whether the Us economy falls into recession.”
In fact, yields rose in the month after the first cut more often than not, she noted.
“Equity market performance in the first month after the Fed starts cutting has been a similarly bad predictor of future economic performance (and market returns),” Wilding said. “Equities, more often than not, have tended to rise in the month after a cutting cycle begins, despite more significant divergence as time goes on.”
Looking at the same starkly different cycles of 1995 and 2007, equity returns (proxied by the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 of small caps) in the month after the first cut were positive in both cycles (at 4.6% and 6.9%, respectively), Wilding said. However, equity market performance was down 4.4% in the year after the 2007 cut, while it was up 21% in the year following the 1995 adjustment.
“Even with the recent move in 10-year Treasury yields, we remain bullish on US large caps,” said Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research. “History says to discount the idea that rates will blow out because of deficit worries, at least over the near term. Instead, we see higher yields as a sign that economic growth remains robust and corporate earnings growth should continue over the coming quarters.”
“All else equal, the more rate cuts that are removed for next year the less of an outlier reading it becomes for the market to achieve 15% earnings growth,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas. “However, additional rates cuts do not change the challenges the S&P faces with achieving that growth rate.”
Sales growth continues to show signs of slowing, and if analysts were suggesting rate cuts would reduce interest expense, that argument is beginning to recede, Grabinski said.
“Nearly 14% EPS margins continue to look more and more difficult to achieve,” he added. “The question is when does something give.”
“The equity market is extremely fragile considering the headwinds that are lurking right around the corner,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Earnings expectations are buoyant for next year, which increases the importance of forward guidance rather than past results.”
When considering that valuations are around 22 times next year’s profits, any disappointment in the outlook for the bottom line can significantly impact stock market performance, he added.
Corporate Highlights:
AT&T Inc. gained more mobile subscribers in the third quarter than analysts expected, continuing the winning streak from the previous period.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered its profit outlook, as the addition of new hotels to its global system failed to offset slower travel demand.
Coca-Cola Co. dropped as investors weighed how much longer the soft-drink purveyor could raise prices without getting customers to buy more of its beverages.
Spirit Airlines Inc. jumped after the Wall Street Journal reported Frontier Group Holdings is exploring a renewed bid for the embattled carrier.
Capital One Financial Corp.’s proposed $35 billion acquisition of Discover Financial Services is being investigated by New York Attorney General Letitia James, who said the deal would have “significant impact” on consumers in the state.
Starbucks Corp. pulled its guidance for 2025, calling attention to the scope of the problems facing new Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol.
McDonald’s Corp. is trying to contain the fallout from a severe E. coli outbreak that appears to be linked to onions in its Quarter Pounder sandwiches, which has killed one person and sickened dozens of people across the US.
Deutsche Bank AG said it will have to set aside more money than expected for souring debt, the second time this year it had to adjust its guidance.
Kering SA warned that its annual profit will fall to the lowest level since 2016 as a slump in Chinese demand for luxury goods hampers a turnaround of the French fashion group’s biggest label, Gucci.
Key events this week:
US new home sales, jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Thursday
UPS, Barclays earnings, Thursday
Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks, Thursday
US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 2:06 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%
The MSCI World Index fell 1.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0771
The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2913
The Japanese yen fell 1% to 152.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $65,331.83
Ether fell 6.4% to $2,464.88
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.25%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.30%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.20%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $70.85 a barrel
Spot gold fell 1.2% to $2,714.99 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled for direction as traders weighed prospects of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Treasury 10-year yields hovered near 4.2%.
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Wall Street are paring back bets on aggressive policy easing as the US economy remains robust and Fed officials have sounded a cautious tone over the pace of future rate decreases. Rising oil prices and the prospect of bigger fiscal deficits after the upcoming presidential election are only compounding the market’s concerns. Since the end of last week, traders have trimmed the extent of expected Fed cuts through September 2025 by more than 10 basis points.
“Of course, higher yields do not have to be negative for stocks. Let’s face it, the stock market has been advancing as these bond yields have bee rising for a full month now,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “However, given how expensive the market is today, these higher yields could cause some problems for the equity market before too long.”
Exposure to the S&P 500 has reached levels that were followed by a 10% slump in the past, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists. Long positions on futures linked to the benchmark index are at the highest since mid-2023 and are looking “particularly extended,” the team led by Chris Montagu wrote in a note.
“We’re not suggesting investors should start to reduce exposure, but the positioning risks do rise when markets get extended like this,” they said.
The S&P 500 was little changed. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%. The Russell 2000 of smaller firms slipped 0.2%. Texas Instruments Inc., which gets almost three-quarters of its revenue from industrial and automotive chips, reports results after the market close.
Treasury 10-year yield was little changed at 4.20%. Oil advanced as traders tracked tensions between Israel and Iran. Gold climbed to a fresh record. Options traders are increasing bets that Bitcoin will reach a record high of $80,000 by the end of November no matter who wins the US presidential election.
The stock market has rallied this year thanks to a resilient economy, strong corporate profits and speculation about artificial-intelligence breakthroughs — sending the S&P 500 up over 20%. Yet risks keep surfacing: from a tight US election to war in the Middle East and uncertainty around the trajectory of Fed easing.
“While recent data indicate a more resilient US economy than previously thought, the broad disinflation trend is still intact, and downside risks — albeit lower — to the labor market remain,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We continue to expect a further 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 and 100 basis points of cuts in 2025. This should bring Treasury yields lower.”
A string of stronger-than-estimated data points sent the US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index to the highest since April. The gauge measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations.
“On the back of September’s strong economic data, markets have already priced a slower pace of cuts,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments. “If the Fed is able to move towards a 4% policy rate — still above the levels most believe represent the ‘neutral’ rate — then the equity market rally can continue. Disruptions to that view make equity market volatility more likely.”
Most Fed officials speaking earlier this week signaled they favor a slower tempo of rate reductions. Policymakers at their meeting last month began lowering rates for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. They cut their benchmark by a half percentage point, to a range of 4.75% to 5%, as concern mounted that the labor market was deteriorating and as inflation cooled close to the Fed’s 2% goal.
“We can point to a few reasons for the rise in global long rates but one possibility is that markets are giving a big thumbs down to central banks easing policy before we’ve seen a sustainable drop in inflation.” said Peter Boockvar author of The Boock Report. “I remain bearish on the long end and bullish on the short end.”
The last time US government bonds sold off this much as the Fed started cutting interest rates, Alan Greenspan was orchestrating a rare soft landing.
Two-year yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Fed reduced interest rates on Sept. 18 for the first time since 2020. Yields rose similarly in 1995, when the Fed — led by Greenspan — managed to cool the economy without causing a recession.
In prior rate cutting cycles going back to 1989, two-year yields on average fell 15 basis points one month after the Fed started slashing rates.
Meantime, the International Monetary Fund said the US election is creating “high uncertainty” for markets and policymakers, given the sharply divergent trade priorities of the candidates. That gap creates the risk of another potential round of volatility on global markets similar to the rattling August selloff.
“Presidents don’t control markets,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management. “Over time, the stock market’s common thread has been the economy and earnings, not who’s in the Oval Office. Be prepared for mood swings in markets as we get closer to Election Day. But remember that election-fueled storms often dissipate quickly.”
As the earnings season rolls in, US companies are reaping the best stock-market reward in five years for beating profit expectations that were lowered in the run-up to the reporting season.
S&P 500 firms that posted better-than-estimated third-quarter earnings have outperformed the benchmark by a median of 1.74% on the day of reporting results, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s the strongest rate in BI’s records going back to 2019.
At the same time, companies missing estimates trailed the S&P 500 by a median of 1.5%, a less severe underperformance than the 1.7% experienced in the second quarter, the data showed.
“This earnings season we are watching what companies are saying about inflation and the economy,” said Megan Horneman at Verdence Capital Advisors. “In addition, their view on interest rates, especially if the Fed cannot be as aggressive as the market is pricing in at this point. It is good to see analysts getting realistic about 2025 earnings growth. However, at 15% earnings growth, we believe it is still too optimistic given the expectation for slower economic growth in 2025.”
Corporate Highlights:
Verizon Communications Inc. reported revenue that missed analysts’ expectations, weighed down by lackluster sales of hardware such as mobile phones.
3M Co. increased the low end of its 2024 profit forecast and reported earnings that topped analyst estimates as a push to boost productivity gained traction.
General Motors Co. signaled solid US demand for its highest-margin vehicles even as the broader market softens, posting better-than-expected results for the latest quarter and raising the low end of its full-year profit forecast.
General Electric Co.’s sales fell short of Wall Street’s expectations last quarter, tempering enthusiasm for its improved profit outlook as the jet engine maker grapples with supply-chain limitations that are weighing on deliveries.
Kimberly-Clark Corp., owner of the Scott toilet paper brand, lowered its full-year organic sales forecast after reporting weaker-than-expected results.
Philip Morris International Inc. forecast higher-than-expected profit this year, citing soaring demand for its Zyn nicotine pouches in the US.
Lockheed Martin Corp.’s third-quarter revenue missed expectations, pulled down by weaker aeronautical sales and ongoing issues with its F-35 fighter jet program.
Zions Bancorp’s third-quarter adjusted net interest income came in ahead of estimates. Morgan Stanley said the results beat across the board and sees the positive trajectory in net interest income continuing into 2025.
L’Oreal SA posted disappointing sales last quarter as the beauty company suffers from worsening consumer demand in China.
An investigation of Huawei Technologies Co.’s latest AI offering has unearthed an advanced processor made by Nvidia Corp. manufacturing partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., suggesting that China is still struggling to reliably make its own advanced chips in sufficient quantities.
Key events this week:
Canada rate decision, Wednesday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Wednesday
US existing home sales, Wednesday
Boeing, Tesla, Deutsche Bank earnings, Wednesday
Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
US new home sales, jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Thursday
UPS, Barclays earnings, Thursday
Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks, Thursday
US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 was little changed as of 1:47 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0803
The British pound was little changed at $1.2983
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 151.02 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $67,338.79
Ether fell 1.9% to $2,625.07
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.20%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.32%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to $72.21 a barrel
Spot gold rose 1% to $2,748.02 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Jim Cramer’s daily rapid fire looks at stocks in the news outside the CNBC Investing Club portfolio. T-Mobile : The wireless carrier announced plans to pay $4.4 billion to buy most of U.S. Cellular . “Who am I to doubt [T-Mobile CEO] Mike Sievert? They got some growth. So stock going higher,” Jim Cramer said Tuesday. T-Mobile was up just under 1%. U.S. Cellular rose more than 1%. Viking Holdings : The cruise line operator’s stock saw lots of analyst initiations. The company went public on May 1. “They don’t want kids, and they don’t want gambling,” and that’s the appeal of Viking, Cramer said. Airbnb : Shares of the short-term rental company were upgraded to a buy-equivalent outperform rating at Wedbush. “I felt that the quarter was excellent. The app is really good. I disagreed with the market. It’s a hard thing to do. Wedbush is basically giving you the bull case,” Cramer said. Shares dropped 7% after its earnings report on May 9 and were still down $10 since the Friday’s close. Huntington Bancshares : The regional bank stock was upgraded to a buy-equivalent overweight rating at JPMorgan. “I thought that the upgrade made very little sense. But I recognize that Huntington Bancshares is in a good state,” Cramer said. Texas Instruments : CNBC reported that activist investor group Elliott Management has taken a $2.5 billion stake in the chipmaker. Cramer said Texas Instruments didn’t make the right moves with customers and shareholders and that’s why Elliott moved in.
The stock market always overreacts, and this year it seems as if investors believe dividend stocks have become toxic. But a look at yields on quality dividend stocks relative to the market underlines what may be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors to pursue growth with an income stream that builds up over the years.
The current environment, in which you can get a yield of more than 5% yield on your cash at a bank or lock in a yield of 4.57% on a10-year U.S. Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
or close to 5% on a 20-year Treasury bond BX:TMUBMUSD20Y
seems to have made some investors forget two things: A stock’s dividend payout can rise over the long term, and so can it is price.
It is never fun to see your portfolio underperform during a broad market swing. And people have a tendency to prefer jumping on a trend hoping to keep riding it, rather than taking advantage of opportunities brought about by price declines. We may be at such a moment for quality dividend stocks, based on their yields relative to that of the benchmark S&P 500 SPX.
Drew Justman of Madison Funds explained during an interview with MarketWatch how he and John Brown, who co-manage the Madison Dividend Income Fund, BHBFX MDMIX and the new Madison Dividend Value ETF DIVL,
use relative dividend yields as part of their screening process for stocks. He said he has never seen such yields, when compared with that of the broad market, during 20 years of work as a securities analyst and portfolio manager.
Dividend stocks are down
Before diving in, we can illustrate the market’s current loathing of dividend stocks by comparing the performance of the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF SCHD,
which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, with that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY.
Let’s look at a total return chart (with dividends reinvested) starting at the end of 2021, since the Federal Reserve started its cycle of interest rate increases in March 2022:
FactSet
The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is made up of “high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The end results for the two ETFs from the end of 2021 through Tuesday are similar. But you can see how the performance pattern has been different, with the dividend stocks holding up well during the stock market’s reaction to the Fed’s move last year, but trailing the market’s recovery as yields on CDs and bonds have become so much more attractive this year. Let’s break down the performance since the end of 2021, this time bringing in the Madison Dividend Income Fund’s Class Y and Class I shares:
Fund
2023 return
2022 return
Return since the end of 2021
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
14.9%
-18.2%
-6.0%
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
-3.8%
-3.2%
-6.9%
Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class Y
-4.7%
-5.4%
-9.9%
Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class I
-4.7%
-5.3%
-9.7%
Source: FactSet
Dividend stocks held up well during 2022, as the S&P 500 fell more than 18%. But they have been left behind during this year’s rally.
The Madison Dividend Income Fund was established in 1986. The Class Y shares have annual expenses of 0.91% of assets under management and are rated three stars (out of five) within Morningstar’s “Large Value” fund category. The Class I shares have only been available since 2020. They have a lower expense ratio of 0.81% and are distributed through investment advisers or through platforms such as Schwab, which charges a $50 fee to buy Class I shares.
The opportunity — high relative yields
The Madison Dividend Income Fund holds 40 stocks. Justman explained that when he and Brown select stocks for the fund their investible universe begins with the components of the Russell 1000 Index RUT,
which is made up of the largest 1,000 companies by market capitalization listed on U.S. exchanges. Their first cut narrows the list to about 225 stocks with dividend yields of at least 1.1 times that of the index.
The Madison team calculates a stock’s relative dividend yield by dividing its yield by that of the S&P 500. Let’s do that for the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF SCHD
(because it tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index) to illustrate the opportunity that Justman highlighted:
Index or ETF
Dividend yield
5-year Avg. yield
10-year Avg. yield
15-year Avg. yield
Relative yield
5-year Avg. relative yield
10-year Avg. relative yield
15-year Avg. relative yield
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
3.99%
3.41%
3.20%
3.16%
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.6
S&P 500
1.55%
1.62%
1.79%
1.92%
Source: FactSet
The Schwab U.S. Equity ETF’s relative yield is 2.6 — that is, its dividend yield is 2.6 times that of the S&P 500, which is much higher than the long-term averages going back 15 years. If we went back 20 years, the average relative yield would be 1.7.
Examples of high-quality stocks with high relative dividend yields
After narrowing down the Russell 1000 to about 225 stocks with relative dividend yields of at least 1.1, Justman and Brown cut further to about 80 companies with a long history of raising dividends and with strong balance sheets, before moving further through a deeper analysis to arrive at a portfolio of about 40 stocks.
When asked about oil companies and others that pay fixed quarterly dividends plus variable dividends, he said, “We try to reach out to the company and get an estimate of special dividends and try to factor that in.” Two examples of companies held by the fund that pay variable dividends are ConocoPhillips COP, -0.29%
and EOG Resources Inc. EOG, +0.52%.
Since the balance-sheet requirement is subjective “almost all fund holdings are investment-grade rated,” Justman said. That refers to credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service or Fitch Ratings. He went further, saying about 80% of the fund’s holdings were rated “A-minus or better.” BBB- is the lowest investment-grade rating from S&P. Fidelity breaks down the credit agencies’ ratings hierarchy.
Justman named nine stocks held by the fund as good examples of quality companies with high relative yields to the S&P 500:
Now let’s see how these companies have grown their dividend payouts over the past five years. Leaving the companies in the same order, here are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for dividends.
Before showing this next set of data, let’s work through one example among the nine stocks:
If you had purchased shares of Home Depot Inc. HD, -0.39%
five years ago, you would have paid $193.70 a share if you went in at the close on Oct. 10, 2018. At that time, the company’s quarterly dividend was $1.03 cents a share, for an annual dividend rate of $4.12, which made for a then-current yield of 2.13%.
If you had held your shares of Home Depot for five years through Tuesday, your quarterly dividend would have increased to $2.09 a share, for a current annual payout of $8.36. The company’s dividend has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% over the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500’s weighted dividend rate has increased at a CAGR of 6.24% over the past five years, according to FactSet.
That annual payout rate of $8.36 would make for a current dividend yield of 2.79% for a new investor who went in at Tuesday’s closing price of $299.22. But if you had not reinvested, the dividend yield on your five-year-old shares (based on what you would have paid for them) would be 4.32%. And your share price would have risen 54%. And if you had reinvested your dividends, your total return for the five years would have been 75%, slightly ahead of the 74% return for the S&P 500 SPX during that period.
Home Depot hasn’t been the best dividend grower among the nine stocks named by Justman, but it is a good example of how an investor can build income over the long term, while also enjoying capital appreciation.
Here’s the dividend CAGR comparison for the nine stocks:
This isn’t to say that Justman and Brown have held all of these stocks over the past five years. In fact, Lowe’s Cos. LOW, +0.27%
was added to the portfolio this year, as was United Parcel Service Inc. UPS, -0.16%.
But for most of these companies, dividends have compounded at relatively high rates.
When asked to name an example of a stock the fund had sold, Justman said he and Brown decided to part ways with Verizon Communications Inc. VZ, -0.94%
last year, “as we became concerned about its fundamental competitive position in its industry.”
Summing up the scene for dividend stocks, Justman said, “It seems this year the market is treating dividend stocks as fixed-income instruments. We think that is a short-term issue and that this is a great opportunity.”
A GE AC4400CW diesel-electric locomotive in Union Pacific livery is seen near Union Station in Los Angeles, California, September 15, 2022.
Bing Guan | Reuters
Here are the stocks making headlines on Wednesday, July 26.
Microsoft — The Xbox owner saw its shares slide 4% after issuing quarterly revenue guidance that fell short of analysts’ expectations. The soft revenue outlook was partly due to weakness in the segment that contains Windows software. Microsoft did report earnings and revenue that beat Street estimates for the calendar second quarter, however.
Alphabet — Shares of the Google parent rose more than 6% after Alphabet beat analysts’ revenue and profit in the second quarter. The parent company of YouTube reported $1.44 in earnings per share on $74.6 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $1.34 per share on $72.82 billion of revenue.
Boeing — The aerospace company’s shares jumped almost 6% and hit a new 52-week high after its second-quarter earnings announcement. Boeing’s revenue of $19.75 billion topped analysts’ estimates of $18.45 billion, according to Refinitiv. The company also reported an 82-cent-loss per share, while Refinitiv analysts had estimated a loss of 88 cents per share.
WW International — Shares of the weight loss company soared more than 18% after an upgrade to overweight from Morgan Stanley. The bank highlighted WW International’s recent acquisition of Sequence, which analyst Lauren Schenk said will aid growth by providing exposure to weight loss drugs.
Texas Instruments — Shares dropped 5% as investors focused on the company’s guidance for the current quarter. Texas Instruments said to expect between $1.68 and $1.92 in earnings per share in the current quarter, meaning much of the range was below the $1.91 estimate of analysts polled by FactSet. Meanwhile, the company guided revenue to between $4.36 billion and $4.74 billion against a FactSet consensus estimate of $4.59 billion. However, the company’s second quarter results exceeded analysts’ expectations.
Visa — The credit card stock slipped more than 1% despite Visa beating estimates for its fiscal third quarter. The company reported $2.16 in adjusted earnings per share on $8.12 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were looking for $2.12 in earnings per share on $8.06 billion of revenue. The company did report that payments volume growth was slowing slightly.
Chubb — Shares of the insurance company jumped more than 5% after a stronger-than-expected second-quarter report. The company posted $4.92 in adjusted earnings per share, above the $4.41 expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. The net premiums written for property and casualty lines came in at $10.68 billion, above estimates of $10.64 billion.
Spotify — The music streaming company’s shares gained 3.2% Wednesday. Shares closed 14% lower Tuesday after Spotify’s second-quarter results missed analysts’ expectations. Deutsche Bank wrote in a Wednesday note that the post-earnings selloff created an attractive entry point for investors.
PacWest – Shares of the community bank surged more than 27% afterit agreed to be acquired by Banc of California in all-stock deal, which includes $400 million in equity from Warburg Pincus and Centerbridge. The combined holding company will operate under the Banc of California name. Shares of Banc of California rose less than 1%.
Union Pacific – The railroad operator saw its shares jump 10% after it named Jim Vena its new CEO. The announcement overshadowed its second-quarter results, which missed estimates. The Omaha-based company reported $2.54 in adjusted earnings per share on $5.96 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv had penciled in $2.75 per share and $6.12 billion. Union Pacific blamed softening consumer markets, inflation, a one-time labor expense and increased workforce levels but said resource levels were more aligned with demand to finish the quarter.
Robert Half — Shares of the staffing consulting firm tumbled more than 5% after Robert Half reported disappointing second-quarter results. The firm reported $1.00 in earnings per share on $1.64 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting $1.14 per share and $1.69 billion of revenue.
General Dynamics — The defense contractor climbed 3% after General Dynamics reported better-than-expected second-quarter results. The company logged $2.70 in earnings per share on $10.15 billion of revenue. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv had estimated $2.56 in earnings per share on $9.46 billion of revenue.
CoStar Group — Shares of the commercial real estate company slid 7.4% after reporting lighter-than-expected revenue for the second quarter, and softer guidance for the third quarter. CoStar said it generated $605.9 million in revenue during the second quarter and expected between $622 and $627 million in the third. Analysts estimated $607.3 million and $623.4 million for those respective periods, according to FactSet’s StreetAccount.
KeyCorp — Shares of the Cleveland-based regional bank jumped more than 7%. Regional bank stocks moved broadly higher after the deal between Banc of California and PacWest.
— CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans, Yun Li, Tanaya Macheel, Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed reporting.
The Nasdaq just wrapped up its fifth straight week of gains, jumping 3.3% over the last five days. It’s the longest weekly winning streak for the tech-laden index since a stretch that ended in November 2021. Coming off its worst year since 2008, the Nasdaq is up 15% to start 2023.
The last time tech stocks enjoyed a rally this long, investors were gearing up for electric carmaker Rivian’s blockbuster IPO, the U.S. economy was closing out its strongest year for growth since 1984, and the Nasdaq was trading at a record.
This time around, there’s far less champagne popping. Cost cuts have replaced growth on Wall Street’s checklist, and tech executives are being celebrated for efficiency over innovation. The IPO market is dead. Layoffs are abundant.
Earnings reports were the story of the week, with results landing from many of the world’s most valuable tech companies. But the numbers, for the most part, weren’t good.
Applemissed estimates for the first time since 2016, Facebook parent Metarecorded a third straight quarter of declining revenue, Google‘s core advertising business shrank, and Amazon closed out its weakest year for growth in its 25-year history as a public company.
While investors had mixed reactions to the individual reports, all four stocks closed the week with solid gains, as did Microsoft, which reported earnings the prior week and issued lackluster guidance in projecting revenue growth this quarter of only about 3%.
Meta was the top performer among the group this week, with the stock soaring 23%, its third-best week ever. In its earnings report Wednesday, revenue came in slightly above estimates, even with sales down year over year, and the first-quarter forecast was roughly in line with expectations.
The key to the rally was CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s pronouncement in the earnings statement that 2023 would be the “Year of Efficiency” and his promise that “we’re focused on becoming a stronger and more nimble organization.”
“That was really the game-changer,” Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, said in an interview Friday with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“The quarter itself was OK, but it was the cost-cutting that they finally got religion on, and that’s why I think Meta really took off,” she said.
Zuckerberg acknowledged that the times are changing. From the year of its IPO in 2012 through 2021, the company grew between 22% and 58% a year. But in 2022 revenue fell 1%, and analysts expect growth of only 5% in 2023, according to Refinitiv.
On the earnings call, Zuckerberg said he doesn’t expect declines to continue, “but I also don’t think it’s going to go back to the way it was before.” Meta announced in November the elimination of 11,000 jobs, or 13% of its workforce.
Link said the reason Meta’s stock got such a big bounce after earnings was because “expectations were so low and the valuation was so compelling.” The stock lost almost two-thirds of its value last year, far more than its mega-cap peers.
Apple, which slid 27% last year, gained 6.2% this week despite reporting its steepest drop in revenue in seven years. CEO Tim Cook said results were hurt by a strong dollar, production issues in China affecting the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, and the overall macroeconomic environment.
“Apple is navigating what is, of course, a very difficult environment quite well overall,” Dan Flax, an analyst at Neuberger Berman, told “Squawk Box” on Friday. “As we move through the coming months and quarters, we’ll see a return to growth and the market will begin to discount that. We continue to like the name even in the face of these macro challenges.”
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who succeeded Jeff Bezos in mid-2021, took the unusual step of joining the earnings call with analysts Thursday after his company issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for the first quarter. In January, Amazon began layoffs, which are expected to result in the loss of more than 18,000 jobs.
“Given this last quarter was the end of my first full year in this role and given some of the unusual parts in the economy and our business, I thought this might be a good one to join,” Jassy said on the call.
Managing expenses has become a big theme for Amazon, which expanded rapidly during the pandemic and subsequently admitted that it hired too many people during that period.
“We’re working really hard to streamline our costs,” Jassy said.
Alphabet is also in downsizing mode. The company announced last month that it’s slashing 12,000 jobs. Its revenue miss for the fourth quarter included disappointing sales at YouTube from a pullback in ad spending and weakness in the cloud division as businesses tighten their belts.
Ruth Porat, Alphabet’s finance chief, told CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa that the company is meaningfully slowing the pace of hiring in an effort to deliver long-term profitable growth.
Alphabet shares ended the week up 5.4% even after giving up some of their gains during Friday’s sell-off. The stock is now up 19% for the year.
Ruth Porat, Alphabet CFO, at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on May 23rd, 2022.
Adam Galica | CNBC
Should the Nasdaq continue its upward trend and notch a sixth week of gains, it would match the longest rally since a stretch that ended in January 2020, just before the Covid pandemic hit the U.S.
Investors will now turn to earnings reports from smaller companies. Some of the names they’ll hear from next week include Pinterest, Robinhood, Affirm and Cloudflare.
Another area in tech that flourished this week was the semiconductor space. Similar to the consumer tech companies, there wasn’t much by way of growth to excite Wall Street.
AMD on Tuesday beat on sales and profit but guided analysts to a 10% year-over-year decline in revenue for the current quarter. Intel, AMD’s primary competitor, reported a disastrous quarter last week and projected a 40% decline in sales in the March quarter.
Still, AMD jumped 14% for the week and Intel rose almost 8%. Texas Instruments and Nvidia also notched nice gains.
The semiconductor industry is dealing with a glut of extra parts at PC and server makers and falling prices for components such as memory and central processors. But after a miserable year in 2022, the stocks are rebounding on signs that an easing of Federal Reserve rate increases and lightening inflation numbers will give the companies a boost later this year.
