LONDON — President Joe Biden has quietly shelved plans for a “foundational” trade agreement with the U.K. ahead of the 2024 election — following Senate opposition and disagreements over the scope of the deal.
A draft outline of the pact and its 11 proposed chapters, prepared by the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office earlier this year, indicated negotiations would begin before the end of 2023.
But after facing multiple headwinds, the deal is not expected to go ahead, two people briefed by the British and U.S. governments respectively told POLITICO.Both were granted anonymity to speak on a sensitive matter.
“I don’t think we’re going to see that re-emerge,” said one of the people briefed on the proposed negotiations.
The proposal’s timeline for talks — which would not consider market access or meet the World Trade Organization’s definition of a free trade agreement — set out that negotiations would wrap up ahead of elections in Britain and the U.S. next year.
The deal was closer in substance to the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) — which tackles regulation and non-tariff barriers — than a full trade agreement.
But last month IPEF talks fell apart after senior Democrats criticized the Biden administration’s negotiation of trade provisions that did not contain enforceable labor standards.
The British government has long coveted a trade agreement with the U.S. as a significant post-Brexit prize.
The draft was considered a road map to eventually securing a full-fledged, comprehensive deal. Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch pitched the IPEF-style deal in April during Biden’s visit to Belfast, Bloomberg reported, to reinvigorate talks first started under the Trump administration.
Congressional oversight
Key voices in the U.S. have expressed concern about the nature of a pact with the U.K.
“Trade negotiations should be driven by substance,” said a spokesperson for Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, which provides congressional oversight for trade.
“It is Senator Wyden’s view that the United States and United Kingdom should not make announcements until a deal that benefits Americans is achievable,” the spokesperson added.
When POLITICO first reported on proposed talks in October, Wyden said it was “extremely disappointing” the Biden administration was attempting to proceed “with a ‘trade agreement’ that will neither benefit the American public, nor respect the role of Congress in international trade.”
Wyden’s spokesperson said Congress “must have a clear role in approving any future trade agreements” and that the senior Democrat “believes it is important for USTR to be significantly more engaged with Congress on any future negotiations.”
‘The vibes were quite tough’
USTR has gone back to Congress to ask for its input on a potential U.K. trade deal. But major outstanding issues between the U.S. and U.K. remain, including agriculture and whether any agreement would benefit American workers.
In a recent meeting with U.S. diplomats “the vibes were quite tough,” said the second person briefed on the proposed negotiations cited earlier. “They just doubled down on ‘you guys really need to lean into the worker-centric trade policy’ and ‘put yourself in the shoes of somebody in Pennsylvania.’”
The message, the person added, was “does this improve the lot of the farmers in Iowa? Does this help the U.S. economy? And if it doesn’t, they’re not going to do it.”
The U.S. approach “seems to be very focused on labor standards, on environmental issues on these very worthy things,” said the first person briefed on the proposed negotiations quoted at the top of this story.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Cabinet also pushed back on a chapter dealing with agriculture regulations in the draft after the British leader told a food summit earlier this year that he would not allow chemical washes or hormone-injected beef imports like those from the U.S. into Britain.
Scottish ministers meanwhile complained they hadn’t been consulted. Agriculture regulations are a devolved issue in Scotland.
In the meantime, the focus of the U.K.-U.S. trade relationship is predominantly on securing a critical minerals agreement that would allow British automotive firms to tap into electric vehicle rebates offered in the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act.
“The U.K. and U.S. are rapidly expanding co-operation on a range of vital economic and trade issues building on the Atlantic Declaration announced earlier this year,” said a U.K. government spokesperson.
Some in the U.K. are taking a philosophical view on whether a wider ranging trade deal with the U.S. is really needed. Michael Mainelli, who, as lord mayor of the City of London, opened a new outpost for the U.K.’s powerhouse financial district in New York City on Monday said: “The trade has been going on fine without it. It might go a bit better with it.”
The latest numbers show total two-way trade between the nations grew 23.8 percent in the year to the end of Q2 2023.
But in the U.S. a trade deal with the U.K. is just “not that high on the list,” Mainelli said.
Israel expanded its military operations in northern Gaza, including bombardments that cut off communications and internet connections, as military officials suggested an anticipated ground offensive against the Hamas militants was starting.
“We moved to the next stage in the war,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in remarks broadcast Saturday. “Last evening, the ground shook in Gaza. We attacked above ground and underground,” he added.
“The instructions to the forces are clear. The campaign will continue until further notice,” Gallant said.
The Israel Defense Forces reissued a call for residents to evacuate northern Gaza, warning: “Your window to act is closing, move south for your own safety.”
Aid groups and civil society organizations said they have lost touch with staff and families in the Gaza Strip as a result of the connection outages.
“Last night, the ground forces entered and continued expanding the ground force operations. Infantry, engineering and artillery are accompanied by heavy gunfire,” IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Saturday. Senior Hamas officials, including the head of the militant group’s aerial operations, were killed, he said.
“Overnight, IDF fighter jets struck Asem Abu Rakaba, the head of Hamas’ Aerial Array. Abu Rakaba was responsible for Hamas’ UAVs, drones, paragliders, aerial detection and defense,” the IDF said on social media. Abu Rakaba took part in planning the October 7 attack by Hamas militants on Israel and “was responsible for the drone attacks on IDF posts,” the IDF said.
Israel’s stepped-up military moves heightened fears that a widely anticipated ground invasion of Gaza was coming neareer. Residents in the enclave have already suffered large losses from air strikes and targeted raids.
The head of the World Health Organization said on Saturday that “reports of intense bombardment in Gaza are extremely distressing,” adding that “evacuation of patients is not possible under such circumstances, nor to find safe shelter.”
“The blackout is also making it impossible for ambulances to reach the injured. We are still out of touch with our staff and health facilities. I’m worried about their safety,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement. He appealed to “all those who have the power to push for a cease-fire to act NOW.”
The U.N. General Assembly on Friday adopted a resolution on the Israel-Hamas crisis, calling for an “immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce leading to a cessation of hostilities.” The Israeli government dismissed the U.N. resolution, sayingIsrael will continue to defend itself. “Israel will do what must be done to eradicate Hamas’ capabilities,” said Gilad Erdan, the Israeli ambassador to the U.N.
EU leaders on Thursday agreed to call for “pauses for humanitarian needs” to allow aid into Gaza, with European Council President Charles Michel welcoming the “strong unity” among the bloc’s governments.
Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, killing over 1,400 people. Israel has retaliated with daily airstrikes on the blockaded Palestinian enclave, killing an estimated 7,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health.
LONDON — Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s trade deal with India will not include legally enforceable commitments on labor rights or environmental standards, five people briefed on the text have told POLITICO.
British businesses and unions now fear the deal’s already-finalized labor and environment chapters will undercut U.K. workers’ rights and efforts to combat climate change.
Sunak’s government is racing to score a win with the booming South Asian economy ahead of the 2024 election. His plans for a return trip to India in October with the aim of sealing the pact are still on track.
Sunak and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi added impetus to negotiations when they met on the sidelines of the G20 in New Delhi early this month. The 13th round of talks continues in London this week.
Just days after Sunak’s meeting with Modi, Badenoch’s team shared the deal’s labor and environment chapters with businesses, unions and trade experts on a September 13 briefing call.
Key enforceable dispute resolution powers which the U.K. set out to negotiate are missing from those chapters, said the five people briefed on the text. It means neither London nor New Delhi can hold the other to their climate, environmental and workers’ rights commitments.
Businesses, unions and NGOs now fear the deal could undercut British firms because Indian firms operate to less stringent and expensive environmental and labor standards. Firms and unions say their access to the negotiations was curtailed earlier this year as talks progressed.
“Industry also wants binding commitments — partly for greater certainty, partly because businesses are made up of people who themselves want to be properly treated and to avoid climate catastrophe,” said a senior British businessperson from the services sector briefed on the chapters. They were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the negotiations.
“Suppression of trade unions, child labor and forced labor are all widespread in India,” said Rosa Crawford, trade lead at the Trades Union Congress (TUC) — the largest coalition of unions in Britain. “But the labor chapter that the U.K. government has negotiated cannot be used to clamp down on these abuses and could lead to more good jobs being offshored to exploitative jobs in India.”
The Department for Business and Trade said it does not comment on live negotiations and that it will only sign a deal that benefits the U.K. and its economy.
‘Everyone was deeply unhappy’
At the outset of the talks, the British government committed to negotiating enforceable labor and environment chapters as it laid out its strategic approach. “We remain committed to upholding our high environmental, labour, food safety and animal welfare standards in our trade agreement with India,” the government said in January 2022.
Indian and British officials say the labor and environment chapters are now closed and are not up for discussion. The U.K.’s first post-Brexit trade pacts with Australia and New Zealand have dispute settlement mechanisms in both these chapters. Three people POLITICO spoke to for this piece said it was an achievement in itself that Britain was able to get such chapters in a deal with India.
Businesses, unions and NGOs have all been concerned after Kemi Badenoch closed the key forums in February to carry out a required review of their activities | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
But, as the U.K.-India deal stands, if either country were to weaken its environmental standards or workers’ rights “the other party would not have recourse to initiate consultations on changes in laws,” said a person familiar with the content of the chapters. “There is no dispute settlement in the environment and labor chapters.”
British firms and unions are also concerned that the pact the EU is negotiating with India has enforceable chapters “bound by sanctions in case the parties don’t comply,” the same person said. Those EU-India chapters are not yet finalized.
British stakeholders “are totally up in arms,” said a former trade department official familiar with the briefing. “Everyone was deeply unhappy.”
Adding enforceable chapters would only slow down negotiations, said an Indian government official. “If you put in too much of these things into a trade deal, then it delays the process.” The U.K. and India are already “bound by” their international commitments on labor and climate, they added.
The deal “is dire for working people because trade unions were excluded from the trade talks,” said the TUC’s Crawford. Nearly three years ago, ministers pitched the idea of involving unions in 11 influential Trade Advisory Groups (TAGs) that gave input on ongoing trade negotiations.
Businesses, unions and NGOs have all been concerned after Britain’s trade chief Kemi Badenoch closed the key forums in February to carry out a required review of their activities. International Trade Minister Nigel Huddleston received officials’ recommendations to restructure the groups in mid-August. A final decision is expected before the end of the year.
With 40-50 people on the U.K. government’s current briefing calls about the India trade deal there’s little businesses or unions can do to feed into negotiations. Officials can “only really be in transmit mode,” said a business representative familiar with the briefings.
“What this means in real terms is that decisions are being made about the future of people’s livelihoods, people’s health, and the environment we all depend on without any input from those who will be impacted,” said Hannah Conway, trade and agriculture policy advisor at the NGO Transform Trade.
“It’s crucial,” she said, “that the government addresses its democratic deficit on trade policy by undertaking meaningful consultation with civil society and businesses.”
“It’s high time the government rethinks its approach,” said the TUC’s Crawford, “and includes unions in trade talks — that’s how you get trade deals that work for working people.”
SEVILLE, Spain — Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez won’t be on the ballot when Spaniards vote in local elections Sunday — but he might as well be.
Everyone in the country sees this weekend’s municipal votes as a dress rehearsal for the national election, which has to be held by the end of the year.
That’s bad news for Socialist candidates like Antonio Muñoz, the mayor of Seville who just wants to be reelected on his own merit — but may end up losing his post because Sánchez is so unpopular.
In an interview with POLITICO, Muñoz complained that the national framing of the election — and the conservative party’s critiques of Sánchez — had undermined the possibility of real debate over how to improve Spain’s fourth-largest city, the capital of the country’s Andalusia region.
“If you want to just generate noise and have a debate about national politics: run for parliament, not mayor of Seville,” Muñoz said. “Me, I’ve stayed faithful to my slogan in these elections — Seville and only Seville — and I think that’s what voters want to hear about.”
In any ordinary election season, Muñoz might be right.
The openly gay, 63-year-old economist is an unusually popular mayor in Seville, a city that once had a reputation for being inward-looking and socially conservative.
Elected to the city council in 2011, Muñoz has worked to redefine the city’s identity and reinforce the idea that there’s more to it than bullfights, religious processions and flamenco — while being careful not to alienate Seville’s traditionalists.
As the city council member in charge of the powerful urbanism, tourism and culture portfolios, he bet on a more alternative, vibrant vision of Seville — promoting electronic music and indie film festivals; and lobbying to steal major events like the Goyas, Spain’s version of the Oscars, away from Madrid.
It was under Muñoz’s watch that Game of Thrones came to town, when the dragon-packed extravaganza used the lush Alcázar palace as a stand-in for the kingdom of Dorne. The producers of Netflix’s The Crown also passed through, using the palatial Alfonso XIII Hotel as a double for Beverly Hills and filming Mohamed Al-Fayed’s Egyptian wedding in Seville’s sumptuous Casa de Pilatos estate.
At the same time that he’s shown off the city center — famed for its narrow, winding streets, whitewashed homes, interior gardens and Moorish architecture — he’s also promoted newer parts of Seville. These include the high-tech Cartuja Science and Technology Park, where the European Commission recently inaugurated the headquarters of its new European Centre for Algorithmic Transparency.
He’s also an enthusiastic booster of the eclectic Fibes Conference Center, located in the working-class Sevilla Este district, which this year will host the 2023 Latin Grammys, the first-ever to be held outside the United States.
“During the next term, we’ll be doing even more to consolidate this city as a Spanish and European reference point for culture, the green economy and the digital transition,” said Muñoz. He became mayor early last year when his predecessor stepped down to run for office at the regional level.
While crafting a more modern image of Seville, Muñoz has been careful not to neglect the city’s classic cultural scene.
He may not be a member of any religious brotherhood, but he has no problem joining religious processions during Holy Week. He may not be a bullfighting enthusiast, but he’s happy to socialize with famous toreros. And while he may not have a passion for flamenco, he’s an almostomnipresentforce at the city’s annual April Fair, where smartly dressed men spend a week dancing with women in long, ruffled, polka-dot dresses while downing pitchers of rebujito, the signature Andalusian cocktail.
“You can like those events more, or less … but they’re a part of our history, our way of life,” said Muñoz.
The skill with which Muñoz has walked the line has played well among sevillanos, especially those who work in the hospitality sector and have been delighted to see the number of tourists in the city boom. Some 6.5 million overnight stays were registered last year.
“I’ve always been proud of my city, but right now I feel that Seville is at a new level as a destination, as a brand,” said restaurant owner Emilio Gimeno. “I think a lot of that has to do with the mayor because he’s always promoting the city, he never stops.”
“I like that he’s a normal guy who lives in the city and doesn’t move around in an official vehicle or surrounded by bodyguards,” he added. “If you’re opening up a new bar, he’s the sort of person who will make time in his schedule to show up at the inauguration, the sort that wants things to work out and go well for you.”
The Sánchez problem
The trouble for Muñoz is that when Sevillanoshead to the polls, they’re be making their choice based not just on his performance — but on the reputation of his party.
“The polls suggest that three out of four Spaniards intend to base their vote on local matters, but a quarter admit their vote will depend on national issues,” said Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III university. “That’s problematic for some mayors because Sánchez is such a polarizing figure.”
The local election will take place just months before Sánchez’s fragile left-wing coalition government — the first in Spain’s history — is set to complete its four-year term in December.
Despite the devastating impact of the COVID crisis and the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, from the outside, Sánchez’s administration appears to have weathered the storm well.
Spain’s gross domestic product has been growing at a rate above the EU average, and unemployment has dropped to levels not seen since 2008.
The country’s residents pay some of the lowest power prices in Europe, thanks to the Iberian Exception energy price cap. The European Commission has applauded Spain for efficient handling of its share of the bloc’s pandemic recovery cash.
And yet, within Spain, perception of the government is negative, and all of the parties in the ruling coalition have suffered a steep drop in the polls. Since May of last year, Sánchez’s Socialists have trailed behind the country’s conservative Popular Party, which is currently 7 percentage points ahead.
Simón, the political scientist, said that some Spaniards distrust Sánchez for having entered into a coalition government with far-left parties with which he said he’d never govern. Not to mention that, like most political leaders, the prime minister’s prestige took a hit during the pandemic.
“The government’s policies — the higher minimum wage, the basic income, the country’s role in Europe — are broadly popular,” Simón said. “But at a personal level, he isn’t.”
Juan Espadas, Muñoz’s predecessor in Seville’s city hall and current leader of the Andalusian Socialists, admitted that the prime minister’s unpopularity had become a factor in the local elections.
“The right has realized that they can’t challenge him on his politics, so now what they’re trying to do is to discredit him on a personal level,” he said, adding that the Popular Party had focused on casting Sánchez as “an egoist” willing to do anything to hold on to power.
“Their only goal is to make it so that people won’t go vote because they don’t like the person behind the party,” he said.
The ghost of ETA
In addition to invoking the unpopular prime minister, the Spanish conservatives have been reminding voters of the coalition government’s cordial relations with pro-independence parties in the national parliament.
When the Basque pro-independence party EH Bildu included 44 former members of the terrorist group ETA in its official lists for the local elections earlier this month, the Popular Party seized on the issue and turned it into a major talking point in its campaign in cities across the country.
Muñoz has worked to redefine Seville’s identity and reinforce the idea that there’s more to it than bullfights, religious processions and flamenco | Cristina Quicler/AFP via Getty Images
In Seville, José Luis Sanz, the conservative candidate for mayor, rallied supporters by declaring that his neighbors “could not understand how Muñoz’s Socialists have surrendered to the heirs of ETA.”
Like other Socialist candidates, Muñoz has denounced this line of attack, stressing its irrelevance in a campaign that should be about the threat posed by housing insecurity or extreme heat — not a terrorist group that ceased to exist more than a decade ago.
“I think what the [Popular Party] is doing is enormously disrespectful toward voters,” he said. “Instead of talking about what’s needed in this city’s poorest neighborhoods, about what we can do to promote culture, about how we should manage tourism, they want to talk about a party that isn’t up for election in Seville.”
But what politicians want to talk about and what voters are hearing seem to rarely be the same thing.
In the middle-class Los Remedios district, 83-year-old María Camacho Rojas has followed the campaign and decided she won’t give her vote to the mayoral candidate of a party led by Sánchez, a politician she believes to be “a compulsive liar.”
“[Sánchez] does deals with ETA, he doesn’t care about Spain, and I — like most Spaniards — am worried about the state in which he’s going to leave our country,” she said.
She added she’d vote for Muñoz in a heartbeat if he belonged to another party. “I like the mayor, I like how much he does for the city, how much he cares about Seville,” she said. “I’m not going to vote against him but I won’t vote for him: I’ll cast a blank ballot on Sunday.”
In Seville, the latest polls predict a technical tie, with Muñoz’s Socialists winning 12 or 13 seats in the city council and the Popular Party taking 12. That would leave the two mainstream parties dependent on the support of more extreme elements, the far-right Vox party on one side and array of left-wing groups on the other — with those two ideological blocs also nearly tied.
Whatever the outcome, the fallout is not likely to remain contained within city limits: Muñoz’s Sánchez problem could easily become Sánchez’s Seville problem.
Losing the city — the largest municipality controlled by the Socialists — would be a severe blow for the prime minister just months ahead of the national elections.
“One city won’t decide a general election,” said Simón. “But it can make the outcome easier for some, and all the more difficult for others.”
LONDON — Britain will be welcomed into an Indo-Pacific trade bloc late Thursday as ministers from the soon-to-be 12-nation trade pact meet in a virtual ceremony across multiple time zones.
Chief negotiators and senior officials from member countries agreed Wednesday that Britain has met the high bar to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), four people familiar with the talks told POLITICO.
Negotiations are “done” and Britain’s accession is “all agreed [and] confirmed,” said a diplomat from one member nation. They were granted anonymity as they were unauthorized to discuss deliberations.
The U.K. will be the first new nation to join the pact since it was set up in 2018. Its existing members are Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and Canada.
Britain’s accession means it has met the high standards of the deal’s market access requirements and that it will align with the bloc’s sanitary and phytosanitary standards as well as provisions like investor-state dispute settlement. The resolution of a spat between the U.K. and Canada over agricultural market access earlier this month smoothed the way to joining up.
Member states have been “wary” of the “precedent-setting nature” of Britain’s accession, a government official from a member nation said, as China’s application to join is next in the queue. That makes it in the U.K.’s interests to ensure acceding parties provide ambitious market access offers, they added.
Trade ministers from the bloc will meet late Thursday in Britain, or early Friday for some member nations in Asia, “to put the seal on it all,” said the diplomat quoted at the top. The deal will be signed at a later time as the text needs to be legally verified and translated into various languages — including French in Canada. “That takes time,” they said.
Speaking Wednesday afternoon, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said: “Negotiations have been proceeding well on CPTPP, and ministers are due to have discussions with their counterparts later this week.”
Any update will, they added, provided at the “earliest possible opportunity.”
LONDON — Joe Biden’s “protectionist” Inflation Reduction Act won’t help the U.S. counter the rise of China and could create a “single point of failure” in key supply chains, Britain’s trade chief Kemi Badenoch warned.
Speaking at a POLITICO event Tuesday night, Badenoch — recently promoted to head up the U.K.’s new Department for Business and Trade — predicted the flagship law would not achieve its key aims, and insisted the U.K. is not sitting on the sidelines in the transatlantic tussle over the plan.
The comments came just minutes after the U.S. ambassador to the U.K. mounted a spirited defense of the IRA at the same event.
The Inflation Reduction Act offers billions in subsidies and tax credits to try and incentivize take-up of electric vehicles and build up green infrastructure. But European and British carmakers are particularly concerned about the impact on their own industries of massive help for U.S. firms.
Speaking on Tuesday night, Badenoch said Britain — which has been lobbying against the plan but is not prepping its own subsidies — is “working very well with a group of like-minded countries who are worried about the Inflation Reduction Act.”
“The EU is very worried and we’re working jointly with them on it,” she said. “It’s not just the EU doing stuff and we’re not in the room. Japan is worried. South Korea is worried. Switzerland is worried.”
Many countries, Badenoch contended, are now “looking at what the U.S. is doing” with concern.
“It is onshoring in a way that could actually create problems with the supply chain for everybody else,” she said.
“And that will not have the impact that it wants to have when it’s looking at the economic challenge that China presents. So no, I don’t think it’s a good idea, not just because it’s protectionist. But it also creates a single point of failure in a different place, when actually what we want is diversification and strengthening of supply chains across the board.”
Speaking earlier Tuesday night, U.S. Ambassador to the U.K. Jane Hartley argued that the plan could have major positive implications for countries beyond the U.S.
“One of the things I would say is there’s going to be a huge amount of money, R&D — the technology is going to improve, the technology is going to be cheaper,” she said. “The technology is going to be used by everyone in the world — not just the U.S.”
Hartley stressed that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is “looking pretty hard” at the act during its so-called comment period, when U.S. agencies take feedback on a plan. Both President Biden and U.S. Trade Secretary Katherine Tai had, she said, stressed that their country “didn’t do this to hurt our allies — we want to protect our allies.”
CORRECTION: A previous version of this article misstated Janet Yellen’s job title. She is the treasury secretary.
A major overhaul of the bloc’s flagship carbon market and a brand new fund to protect vulnerable people from rising CO2 costs were agreed on by EU negotiators in the early hours of Sunday as part of a “jumbo” trilogue that started on Friday morning.
“After 30 hours of (net!) negotiation time we have an agreement about a new ETS and the creation of a social climate fund (SCF),” tweeted Esther de Lange, vice chair of the European People’s Party and a key climate lawmaker.
Touted as the cornerstone of Europe’s climate efforts, reforming the Emissions Trading System (ETS) is key to achieving the goal of slashing 55 percent of CO2 emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels.
“We just found an agreement on the biggest climate law ever negotiated in Europe,” said German MEP Peter Liese, who steered the negotiations on the bill.
As part of the hard-fought compromise, EU brokers stipulated that power generators and heavy polluters covered by the ETS will have to curb their pollution by 62 percent by the end of the decade, 1 percent more than what the European Commission had initially proposed.
Waste will be covered by the scheme from 2028, with potential derogations until 2030.
The deal also mandates that all the revenues generated by the carbon market “shall” be spent on climate action.
“That’s one of the biggest wins of the Parliament,” Liese told a briefing held shortly after the end of the talks.
Free CO2 certificates, given to industry to remain competitive against rivals from outside the bloc, will be phased out entirely by 2034 as a planned Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is due to enter into force from 2026 at the end of a three-year transition period. The Commission and the Council sought an end-date of 2036, while the Parliament fought for a speedier phaseout by 2032.
The border tax covers cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electric energy production, hydrogen, iron and steel.
However, negotiators stopped short of introducing rebates to protect exports, arguing they would have proven incompatible with World Trade Organization rules. Instead, the EU’s 27 nations will be granted the right to ring-fence revenues to support companies at risk of being harmed by the phaseout of free permits.
The deal also calls for a parallel carbon market to cover fossil fuels used to power cars and heat buildings from 2027 — easily one of the most controversial elements due to worries that it could increase energy poverty and unleash political turmoil if not designed in a just way.
“Germany desperately wanted the second carbon market and the inclusion of other fuels. They got it and they should celebrate,” said German MEP Peter Liese | John Thys/AFP via Getty images
To reach a deal, Parliament dropped its call for a split between commercial users and private owners — something the Commission and Council had called unworkable.
But to make it more palatable, policymakers agreed the so-called ETS2 would come with an emergency brake to be triggered in the event carbon prices per ton exceed €90 — which would cause the start to be delayed by one year. The pact also foresees that prices will be capped at €45 at least until 2030.
To help low-income households swiftly shift to cleaner forms of transport and heating so that they won’t be unfairly hit by the measure, EU policymakers signed off on a Social Climate Fund worth €86.7 billion running from 2026 until 2032.
That’s much larger than the €59 billion fund supported by the Council; 25 percent will be raised through co-financing by EU governments while a so-called “all fuels approach” covering process emissions means more CO2 permits will be sold under the scheme.
Several negotiators said the talks were made particularly tough by Germany’s foot-dragging.
“Germany desperately wanted the second carbon market and the inclusion of other fuels. They got it and they should celebrate,” said Liese, adding that, “instead of celebrating, they created problems until the last minute.”
The agreement also confirmed that the ETS will be extended to the shipping sector.
LONDON — Three years after leaving the EU to chart its own course, Britain finds itself caught between two economic behemoths in a brewing transatlantic trade war.
In one corner sits the United States, whose Congress in August passed the Biden administration’s much-vaunted $369 billion program of green subsidies, part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
In the opposing corner is the European Union, which fears Washington’s subsidy splurge will pull investment — particularly in electric vehicles — away from Europe, hitting carmakers hard.
The EU is preparing its own retaliatory package of subsidies; Washington shows little sign of changing course. Fears of a trade war are growing fast.
Now sitting squarely outside the ring, the U.K. can only look on with horror, and quietly ask Washington to soften the blow. But there are few signs the softly-softly approach is bearing fruit. Britain now risks being clobbered by both sides.
“It’s not in the U.K.’s interest for the U.S. and EU to go down this route,” said Sam Lowe, a partner at Flint Global and expert in U.K. and EU trade policy. “Given the U.K.’s current economic position, it can’t really afford to engage in a subsidy war with both.” The British government has just unleashed a round of fiscal belt-tightening after a market rout, following months of political turmoil.
For iconic British motor brands, the row over the Biden administration’s IRA comes with real costs.
The U.S. is the second-largest destination for British-made vehicles after the EU, and the automotive sector is one of Britain’s top goods exporters.
Manufacturers like Jaguar Land Rover have warned publicly about the “very serious challenges” posed by the new U.S. law and its plan for electric vehicle tax credits aimed at boosting American industry.
Kemi on the case
U.K. Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch has for months been privately urging top U.S. officials to soften the impact of the electric vehicle subsidies on Britain by carving out exemptions, U.K. officials said.
When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited London in early October, Badenoch pushed her to rethink the strategy. The U.K. trade chief brought that same message to Washington in a series of private meetings earlier this month, including at a sit-down with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo.
Badenoch has “raised this issue on many levels,” an official from the U.K.’s Department for International Trade said, citing conversations with U.S. Ambassador to Britain Jane Hartley, with Secretary Raimondo, “and with members of the Biden administration and senior representatives of both parties.”
The Cabinet minister has also spoken out in public, telling the pro-free market Cato Institute in Washington earlier this month that “the substantial new tax credits for electric cars not only bar vehicles made in the U.K. from the U.S. market, but also affect vehicles made in the U.S. by U.K. manufacturers.”
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
Badenoch’s comments echo concerns raised by both British automotive lobby group the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), and by Jaguar Land Rover, in comments filed with the U.S. Treasury Department.
The SMMT warned that Biden’s green vehicle package has several “elements of concern that risk creating an uneven competitive environment, with U.K.-based manufacturers and suppliers potentially penalised.” The lobby group is taking aim at the credit scheme’s requirement for green vehicles to be built in North America, with significant subsidies available only if critical minerals are sourced from the U.S. or a U.S. ally.
In response to Washington’s plans, the EU is preparing what could amount to billions in subsidies for its own industries hit by the U.S. law, which also offers tax breaks to boost American green businesses such as solar panel manufacturers. Britain faces being squeezed in both markets, while lacking any say in whatever response Brussels decides.
Protectionism that impacts like-minded allies “isn’t the answer to the geopolitical challenges we face,” the British trade department official warned, adding “there is a serious risk” the law disrupts “vital” global supply chains of batteries and electric vehicles.
The conversations Badenoch had this month in Washington were “reassuring,” the official added. “But it’s for them to address and find solutions.”
‘Ton of work to do’
Yet others believe Badenoch will have a hard time getting her colleagues in the U.S. — now cooling on a much-touted bilateral trade deal — to take action. “The U.S. is minimally focused on how any of their policies are going to impact the U.K.,” admitted a U.S.-based representative of a major business group.
While Britain and the U.S. are “very close allies”, they added, those in Washington “just don’t really view the U.K. as an interesting trade partner and market right now.” The U.S. is more focused, they noted, on pushing back against China, meaning Badenoch has “a ton of work to do” getting the administration to soften the IRA.
Nevertheless the U.S. is still working out how its law will actually be implemented, the business figure said, and is assembling a working group on how the IRA impacts trade allies. This has the potential, they added, to “alleviate a lot of the concerns coming out of the U.K.”
Late Tuesday evening, the SMMT called on the British government to provide greater domestic support for the sector as it prepares to ramp up its own electric vehicle production. The group wants an extension past April on domestic support for firms’ energy costs; a boost to government investment in green energy sources; and a speedier national rollout of charging infrastructure and staff training.
In the meantime, Britain’s options appear limited.
Newly manufactured Land Rover and Range Rover vehicles parked and waiting to be loaded for export | Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images
The U.K. “could consider legal action” and haul the U.S. before the World Trade Organization or challenge the EU through provisions in the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement, said Lowe of consultancy Flint. “But — to be blunt — neither of them care what we have to say.”
Anna Jerzewska, a trade advisor and associate fellow at the UK Trade Policy Observatory, suggested pressing ahead “with your own domestic policy and efforts to support strategic industries is perhaps more important” than complaining about foreign subsidy schemes. But she noted that after a “chaotic” political period, Britain is “likely to take longer to respond to external changes and challenges.”
And in truth, Britain “can’t afford to out-subsidize the U.S. and EU,” said David Henig, a trade expert with the European Centre For International Political Economy think tank.
Outside the EU, Britain could work to rally allies such as Japan and South Korea who are also unhappy with the Biden administration’s protectionist measures, he noted. “But I don’t think we’re in that position,” Henig said, as it would take a concerted diplomatic effort, and the U.K.’s automotive sector would “have to be well positioned” in the first place, not struggling as it is. He predicted London’s lobbying in Washington and Brussels is “not going to get anywhere.”
The transatlantic reset between Brussels and Washington is on life support.
After four years of discord and disruption under Donald Trump, hopes were high that Joe Biden’s presidency would usher in a new era of cooperation between Europe and the U.S. after he declared: “America is back.”
But when senior officials from both sides meet in Washington on Monday for a twice-yearly summit on technology and trade, the mood will be gloomier than at any time since Trump left office.
The European Union is up in arms over Biden’s plans for hefty subsidies for made-in-America electric cars, claiming these payments, which partly kick in from January 1, are nothing more than outright trade protectionism.
At the same time, the U.S. is increasingly frustrated the 27-country bloc won’t be more aggressive in pushing back against China, accusing some European governments of caving in to Beijing’s economic might.
Those frictions are expected to overshadow the so-called EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council (TTC) summit this week. At a time when the Western alliance is seeking to maintain a show of unity and strength in the face of Russian aggression and Chinese authoritarianism, the geopolitical stakes are high.
Biden may have helped matters last Thursday, during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, by saying he believed the two sides can still resolve some of the concerns the EU has raised.
“We’re going to continue to create manufacturing jobs in America but not at the expense of Europe,” Biden said. “We can work out some of the differences that exist, I’m confident.”
But, as ever, the details will be crucial.
It is unclear what Biden can do to stop his Buy American subsidies from hurting European car-markers, for example, many of which come from powerful member countries like France and Germany. The TTC summit offers a crucial early opportunity for the two sides to begin to rebuild trust and start to deliver on Biden’s warm rhetoric.
Judging by the TTC’s record so far, those attending, who will include U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, will have their work cut out.
More than 20 officials, policymakers and industry and society groups involved in the summit told POLITICO that the lofty expectations for the TTC have yet to deliver concrete results. Almost all of the individuals spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be attending the TTC | Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Some officials privately accused their counterparts of broken promises, particularly on trade. Others are frustrated at a lack of progress in 10 working groups on topics like helping small businesses to digitize and tackling climate change.
“With these kinds of allies, who needs enemies?” said one EU trade diplomat when asked about tensions around upcoming U.S. electric car subsidies. A senior U.S. official working on the summit hit back: “We need the Europeans to play ball on China. So far, we haven’t had much luck.”
Much of the EU-U.S. friction is down to three letters: IRA.
Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which provides subsidies to “Buy American” when it comes to purchasing electric vehicles, has infuriated officials in Brussels who see it as undermining the multilateral trading system and a direct threat to the bloc’s rival car industry.
“The expectation the TTC was established to provide a forum for precisely these advanced exchanges with a view to preventing trade frictions before they arise appears to have been severely frustrated,” said David Kleimann, a trade expert at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels.
Biden’s room for flexibility is limited. The context for the subsidies and tax breaks is his desire to make good on his promise to create more manufacturing jobs ahead of an expected re-election run in 2024. The U.S. itself is hovering on the edge of a possible recession.
In addition, the U.S. trade deficit with the EU hit a record $218 billion in 2021, second only to the U.S. trade deficit with China. The U.S. also ran an auto trade deficit of about $22 billion with European countries, with Germany accounting for the largest share of that.
Washington has few, if any, meaningful policy levers at its disposal to calm European anger. During a recent visit to the EU, Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, urged European countries to pass their own subsidies to jumpstart Europe’s electric car production, according to three officials with knowledge of those discussions.
“It risks being the elephant in the room,” said Emily Benson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, when asked about the electric car dispute.
After a push from Brussels, there were increasing signs on Friday that the TTC could still play a role. In the latest version of the TTC’s draft declaration, obtained by POLITICO, both sides commit to addressing the European concerns over Biden’s subsidies, including via the Trade and Tech Council. Again, though, there was no detail on how Washington could resolve the issue.
Politicians across Europe are already drawing up plans to fight back against Biden’s subsidies. That may include taking the matter to the World Trade Organization, hitting the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs or passing a “Buy European Act” that would nudge EU consumers and businesses to buy locally made goods and components.
Officials and business leaders pose for a photo during the TTC in September 2021 | Pool photo by Rebecca Droke/AFP via Getty Images
Privately, Washington has not been in the mood to give ground. Speaking to POLITICO before Biden met Macron, five U.S. policymakers said the IRA was not aimed at alienating allies, stressing that the green subsidies fit the very climate change goals that Europe has long called on America to adopt.
“There’s just a huge amount to be done and more frankly to be done than the market would provide for on its own,” said a senior White House official, who was not authorized to speak on the record. “We think the Inflation Reduction Act is reflective of that type of step, but we also think there is a space here for Europe and others, frankly, to take similar steps.”
China tensions
Senior politicians attending the summit are expected to play down tensions this week when they announce a series of joint EU-U.S. projects.
These include funds for two telecommunications projects in Jamaica and Kenya and the announcement of new rules for how the emerging technology of so-called trustworthy artificial intelligence can develop. There’s also expected to be a plan for more coordination to highlight potential blockages in semiconductor supply chains, according to the draft summit statement obtained by POLITICO.
Yet even on an issue like microchips — where both Washington and Brussels have earmarked tens of billions of euros to subsidize local production — geopolitics intervenes.
For months, U.S. officials have pushed hard for their European counterparts to agree to export controls to stop high-end semiconductor manufacturing equipment being sent to China, according to four officials with knowledge of those discussions.
Washington already passed legislation to stop Chinese companies from using such American-made hardware. The White House had been eager for the European Commission to back similar export controls, particularly as the Dutch firm ASML produced equipment crucial for high-end chipmaking worldwide.
Yet EU officials preparing for the TTC meeting said such requests had never been made formally to Brussels. The draft summit communiqué makes just a passing reference to China and threats from so-called non-market economies.
Unlike the U.S., the EU remains divided on how to approach Beijing as some countries like Germany have long-standing economic ties with Chinese businesses that they are reluctant to give up. Without a consensus among EU governments, Brussels has little to offer Washington to help its anti-China push.
“In theory, the TTC is not about China, but in practice, every discussion with the U.S. is,” said one senior EU official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “If we talk with Katherine Tai about Burger King, it has an anti-China effect.”
Gavin Bade, Clea Caulcutt, Samuel Stolton and Camille Gijs contributed reporting.
BERLIN — With only six weeks to avoid a transatlantic trade showdown over green industries, the Germans are frustrated that Washington isn’t offering a peace deal and are increasingly considering a taboo-breaking response: European subsidies.
Europe’s fears hinge on America’s $369 billion package of subsidies and tax breaks to bolster U.S. green businesses, which comes into force on January 1. The bugbear for the Europeans is that Washington’s scheme will encourage companies to shift investments from Europe and incentivize customers to “Buy American” when it comes to purchasing an electric vehicle — something that infuriates the big EU carmaking nations like France and Germany.
The timing of this protectionist measure could hardly be worse as Germany is in open panic that several of its top companies — partly spurred by energy cost spikes after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — are shuttering domestic operations to invest elsewhere. The last thing Berlin needs is even more encouragement for businesses to quit Europe, and the EU wants the U.S. to cut a deal in which its companies can enjoy the American perks.
A truce seems unlikely, however. If this spat now spirals out of control, it will lead to a trade war, something that terrifies the beleaguered Europeans. While the first step would be a largely symbolic protest at the World Trade Organization (WTO), the clash could easily slide precipitously back toward the tit-for-tat tariff battles of the era of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
This means that momentum is growing in Berlin for a radical Plan B. Instead of open tariff war with America, the increasingly discussed option is to rip up the classic free-trade rulebook and to play Washington at its own game by funneling state funds into European industry to rear homegrown green champions in sectors such as solar panels, batteries and hydrogen.
France has long been the leading advocate of strengthening European industry with state largesse but, up until now, the more economically liberal Germans have not wanted to launch a subsidy race against America. The sands are now shifting, however. Senior officials in Berlin say they are increasingly leaning toward the French thinking, should the talks with the U.S. not lead to an unexpected last-minute solution.
Berlin is the 27-nation bloc’s economic powerhouse, so it will be a decisive moment if Berlin ultimately decides to throw its might behind the state-led subsidy approach to an industrial race with the U.S.
Running out of time
The clock is ticking for a truce with Biden that looks increasingly unlikely.
Recent attempts by a special EU-U.S. task force to address EU concerns have met little enthusiasm on the American side to amend the controversial legislation, the European Commission told EU countries this week.
“There are only a few weeks left,” warned Bernd Lange, the chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, adding that “once the act is implemented, it will be too late for us to achieve any changes.”
Lange said that the failure to reach a deal would likely trigger a WTO lawsuit by the EU against the U.S., and Brussels could also strike back against what it sees as the discriminatory U.S. subsidies by imposing punitive tariffs. Warnings of a trade war are already overshadowing the runup to a high-level EU-U.S. meeting in Washington on December 5.
MEP Bernd Lange Lange said that the failure to reach a deal would likely trigger a WTO lawsuit by the EU against the U.S. | Philippe Buissin/European Union
It’s precisely the kind of spat that the German government wants to avoid, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz hopes to forge unity among like-minded democracies amid Russia’s war and the the increasing challenges posed by China. Earlier this month, Scholz’s government made an overture to Washington by suggesting that a new EU-U.S. trade deal could be negotiated to resolve differences, but that proposal was quickly rejected.
There are sympathizers for the subsidies approach in Brussels, with officials at the EU’s executive saying powerful Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is a leading proponent. Breton is already advocating for a “European Solidarity Fund” to help “mobilizing the necessary funding” to strengthen European autonomy in key sectors like batteries, semiconductors or hydrogen. Support from Germany could help Breton win the upper hand in internal EU strategy discussions over the more cautious Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.
Breton will travel to Berlin on November 29 to discuss the consequences of the Inflation Reduction Act as well as industrial policy and energy measures with Scholz’s government.
The German considerations even echo calls from top officials of the Biden administration, including U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, who are urging the EU to not engage in a transatlantic trade dispute and instead roll out their own industrial subsidies; a strategy that Washington also sees as way to reduce dependence on China.
Plan B
Scholz first indicated late last month that the EU might have to respond to the U.S. law with its own tax cuts and state support if the negotiations with Washington fail to reach a solution, lending support to similar plans articulated by French President Emmanuel Macron, who will meet Biden on December 1 in Washington.
Although Scholz does not endorse Macron’s framing of the initiative as a “Buy European Act” (which sounds too protectionist for the Germans), the chancellor agrees that the EU cannot stand by idly if it faces unfair competition or lost investments, people familiar with his thinking said late last month.
Negative economic news, such as carmaker Tesla putting plans for a new battery factory in Germany on hold and instead investing in the U.S., or steelmaker ArcelorMittal partly closing operations in Germany, have increased calls in Berlin to consider more state support to counter a negative trend caused by both the U.S. scheme and high energy prices.
Although the official government line remains that Berlin is still holding out hope for a negotiated solution with Washington, officials in Berlin say that it could be possible to increase incentives for industries to locate the production of green technologies in Europe.
A spokesperson for the German Economy Ministry said that faced with the challenges stemming from the Inflation Reduction Act, “we will have to come up with our own European response that puts our strengths first … The aim is to competitively relocate green value creation in Europe and strengthen our own production capacities.”
The spokesperson warned, however, that both the U.S. and EU “must be careful that there is no subsidy race that prevents the best ideas from prevailing in the market,” and added: “Green technologies in particular thrive best in fair competition; protectionism cripples innovation.”
One important condition that could help Germany and the EU to safeguard said fair competition and to avoid the global free trade system descending into protectionist tendencies would be to ensure that any EU state subsidies remain in line with WTO rules. That means, in contrast to the U.S. law, that those subsidies would not discriminate between local and foreign producers.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz first indicated late last month that the EU might have to respond to the U.S. law with its own tax cuts and state support | Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Crucially, support is also coming from German industry.
“In the area of industrial policy and subsidies, we could look at measures that are compatible with WTO rules — as the EU is already doing in the chip sector,” said Volker Treier, the head of foreign trade at the German Chamber of Commerce.
Treier also stressed that “there must be no discrimination” against foreign investors, but added: “This explicitly does not rule out the possibility of settlement bonuses, which in turn should be available to investors from all countries who would be interested in such investment commitments in Europe.”
In Brussels, the Commission’s competition department has also made clear that it’s looking with an open mind at upcoming proposals.
“There are no instruments excluded a priori” when it comes to the EU’s response to the U.S. subsidies, the department’s state aid Deputy Director General Ben Smulders said Thursday.
Barbara Moens, Suzanne Lynch and Pietro Lombardi in Brussels and Laura Kayali and Clea Caulcutt in Paris contributed reporting.
PRAGUE — U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai traveled more than 4,000 miles to prevent a transatlantic trade war over electric vehicles, but her EU counterparts signaled on Monday that they would be a tough crowd to win round.
The growing spat hinges on U.S. legislation that encourages consumers via tax credits to “Buy American” when it comes to choosing an electric car.
At a time when the U.S. and Europe want to present a united front against Russia, this protectionist measure has triggered outrage in many EU countries, including France and Germany, two leading European carmaking nations. Beyond the EU, China, Japan and South Korea have also voiced concern.
After speaking with Tai at a meeting of EU ministers in Prague, the bloc’s trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis predicted it would be difficult to resolve the dispute.
“It will not be easy to fix it — but fix it we must,” he said.
Among the 27 EU countries, anxiety about the U.S. measure is growing. Sweden’s new trade minister, Johan Forssell, whose country takes over the presidency of the Council of the EU in January, told POLITICO on Sunday that aspects of the U.S. legislation were “worrying” and “not in accordance with [World Trade Organization] rules.”
Another senior official stressed: “It’s not only one or two member states, which are concerned … It’s also the small ones; they will have no access at all” to the U.S. market.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed over lunch last week that the EU should retaliate if Washington pushed ahead with the controversial bill. Macron floated the idea of a “Buy European Act” to strike back.
The new tax credits for electric vehicles are part of a huge U.S. tax, climate and health care package, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed the U.S. Congress in August.
The idea is that a U.S. consumer can claim back $7,500 of the value of an electric car from their tax bill. To qualify for that credit, however, the car needs to be assembled in North America and contain a battery with a certain percentage of the metals mined or recycled in the U.S., Canada or Mexico.
Czech Trade Minister Jozef Síkela, whose country currently holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, said that European carmakers wanted to qualify for the scheme, just as the North Americans do.
In its current form, the bill is “unacceptable,” and “is extremely protective against exports from Europe,” said Síkela as he walked into Monday’s meeting. “We simply expect that we will get the same status as Canada and Mexico.”
U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis | Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
“But we need to be realistic,” Síkela told reporters later. “This is our starting point in the negotiations and we’ll see what we’ll manage to negotiate at the end.”
In a bid to soothe tensions, a joint task force was set up last week by the European Commission and the U.S. The task force is supposed to meet at the end of this week, although the exact date isn’t yet fixed, according to thesenior official.
Asked whether Brussels would retaliate should no agreement be struck with Washington, Dombrovskis took a cautious approach: “Setting up this task force is already … a response of us, raising those concerns … At this stage, we are focusing on a negotiated solution before considering what other options there may be.”
The midterm elections in the U.S., where President Joe Biden’s Democrats look likely to lose ground, compound the difficulties.
It doesn’t seem like the tensions will be eased by the next Trade and Technology Council, which takes place between U.S. and European negotiators in early December.
Dismay over the U.S. subsidies has overshadowed the preparatory work for the next TTC meeting, for which the EU and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic want to see rapid concrete results to avoid the perception that the format is simply a talking shop.
Tai herself had no immediate comment in Prague, but later released a statement on her meeting with Síkela that gave no hint of a breakthrough.
“Ambassador Tai and Minister Síkela discussed the ongoing work of the Trade and Technology Council, and the importance of achieving meaningful results for the December TTC Ministerial and beyond. They also discussed the newly-created U.S.-EU Task Force on the Inflation Reduction Act,” the statement said.
This article is part of POLITICO Pro
The one-stop-shop solution for policy professionals fusing the depth of POLITICO journalism with the power of technology
Europe, the world’s largest economic bloc, enjoyed stable trade surpluses for a decade but the war in Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis have tipped the Continent into a spiraling external deficit unseen since the launch of the euro.
The terms-of-trade shock maxed out in August, the latest month for which trade figures are available. And, even though energy prices have since eased, European leaders are still scrambling to shore up supplies of affordable oil and gas to replace lost Russian deliveries. A harsh winter looms.
A breakdown of the trade figures shows that the EU’s manufacturing trade surplus has nearly halved this year.
Can Europe bounce back? Or will its industrial base become hollowed out as industry moves offshore? And will the eurozone, and the EU more broadly, end up being saddled with the chronic external deficits that have long plagued the United States and, more recently, destabilized Britain? POLITICO breaks it down for you:
What’s going on?
The eurozone’s negative trade balance with the rest of the world in August stood at €50.9 billion, the highest deficit ever recorded, compared to a €2.8 billion surplus a year ago, according to the latest Eurostat numbers.
The trade deficit for the EU as a whole spiraled to €64.7 billion.
The eurozone’s current account balance — the balance of all trade in goods and services as well as international transfers of capital, such as remittances — hit a €26.32 billion deficit in August, largely driven by the trade deficit in goods, the European Central Bank reported.
Is that a bad thing?
A trade deficit occurs when a country or trading bloc’s imports exceed its exports. A trade surplus is the opposite. Trade deficits are not per se good or bad, although many countries seek a trade surplus, including by setting up tariffs and quotas to artificially boost their trade balance, a practice known as mercantilism.
Is it temporary?
The trade deficit is largely driven by high energy prices, which in August hit a record €350 per megawatt hour. Prices have come down from their peak, trading at around €150/MWh, but they are still a multiple of where they were a year ago.
“Markets have gone from pricing this energy crisis as being temporary, they are now pricing it to be a much longer-term story, albeit not as elevated as it was in August,” said Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, chief FX analyst at Danske Bank.
“We think that it is a kind of a more long-term thing that is going to weigh on the currencies of economies that are energy importers, where the eurozone, of course, stands out to a very large extent,” he added.
Others believe that the shift, being largely energy related, could resolve itself over time, said Sam Lowe, who covers trade policy at Flint Global.
An EU official also pointed to EU-Russia trade. “The peak in energy prices has made the value of our imports from Russia increase substantially (while the volume of those imports from Russia decreased), and our exports have spiralled down because of sanctions (export controls),” the official said.
Will the EU be less competitive if energy prices remain high?
A negative trade balance and consequently a weaker currency makes imports more expensive. “Net importers will have to pay more for goods and services,” said Lomholt.
On the other hand, a weaker euro could fuel exports, said Matthias Krämer, head of external economic policy at German industry federation BDI. “If the euro currency was a little bit weaker, it could also make Europe’s position on global markets better by making exports cheaper,” he said.
But there’s another way of looking at this. Lowe argued the sustained large eurozone trade surplus was itself problematic, in that it was a function of intra-EU demand being lower than it should be. “Being overly dependent on external demand also leaves the EU quite vulnerable to both external shocks, and political coercion.”
What does that mean for the euro?
“We expect the euro to decline further in coming months as part of this adjustment,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance.
A negative trade balance or current account deficit puts downward pressure on the value of free-floating currencies, which move with demand of goods: less demand for a country’s exports means less demand for its currency, which in turn lowers its value relative to others. Conversely, strong foreign demand for goods strengthens a country’s currency.
“Foreign investors need to be compensated via a real depreciation of the exchange rate, and generally higher real interest rates,” said Lomholt at Danske Bank.
The Danish lender has recently downgraded its forecast for the € to $ exchange rate to $0.93 in 12 months from virtual parity now, driven in part by the energy price shock. “We have for some time been arguing that €/$ looked overvalued and not undervalued … And just given the additional push to the energy crisis that we got during summer, we saw a case that the euro/dollar [exchange rate] should actually hit even lower,” he said.
Is business freaking out?
A bit.
“The data are not so surprising considering the high energy prices, but they are worrying”, said Luisa Santos, responsible for international relations at BusinessEurope. She called on the EU to try to bring energy prices down and to boost exports by opening new market opportunities via more trade agreements.
Germany, the bloc’s export powerhouse, increased its exports by 14 percent in the first eight months of the year but imports have surged by more than 27 percent, according to national trade figures.
“We’re not performing in a segment which is highly influenced by a cost driven competition,” said Krämer at the German industry federation. “But if this situation will last longer of course some parts of our industry will be more and more under pressure.”
This article is part of POLITICO Pro
The one-stop-shop solution for policy professionals fusing the depth of POLITICO journalism with the power of technology
PARIS — U.S. President Joe Biden needs to watch out; France is resuming its traditional role as Europe’s troublemaker on the transatlantic trade front.
It had seemed like the bad blood between Brussels and Washington was easing on Biden’s watch. Facing a common foe in China, the EU and the U.S. last year struck a truce on the tariffs that former President Donald Trump slapped on European steel and aluminium. Over this year, Russia’s war against Ukraine has meant that America and Europe needed to present a united front, at least politically.
Cracks are now starting to re-emerge, however. The EU is furious that the U.S. is pouring subsidies into the homegrown electric car industry. Accusing Washington of protectionism, Europe is now threatening to draw up its own defenses.
Unsurprisingly, French President Emmanuel Macron is leading the charge. “The Americans are buying American and pursuing a very aggressive strategy of state aid. The Chinese are closing their market. We cannot be the only area, the most virtuous in terms of climate, which considers that there is no European preference,” Macron told French daily Les Echos.
Upping the ante, he called on Brussels to support consumers and companies that buy electric cars produced in the EU, instead of ones from outside the bloc.
There are good reasons why the Europeans are fretting about their trade balances.
The war has delivered a huge terms-of-trade shock, with spiraling energy costs hauling the EU into a yawning bloc-wide trade deficit of €65 billion in August, from only €7 billion a year earlier. In one manifestation of those strains, Europe’s growing reliance on American liquefied natural gas to substitute for lost Russian supplies has re-ignited tensions.
Macron’s comments are a reflection of EU consternation over Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivizes U.S. consumers to “Buy American” when purchasinga greener car. The EU argues that requiring that car needs to be assembled in North America and contain a battery with a certain percentage of local content discriminate against the EU and other trade partners.
The European Commission hopes to convince Washington to find a diplomatic compromise for European carmakers and their suppliers. If not, that leaves the EU no choice but to challenge Washington at the World Trade Organization, EU officials and diplomats told POLITICO — even if a new transatlantic trade war is the last thing both sides want to spend their time and money on.
Macron’s comments “are clearly a response against the Inflation Reduction Act,” noted Elvire Fabry, a trade policy expert at the Institut Jacques Delors in Paris. “Macron plays the role of the bad cop, compared to the European Commission, which left Washington some political room to make adjustments,” she noted.
‘American domination’
The Commission hopes to find a diplomatic compromise with the U.S. for European carmakers and their suppliers | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
France has traditionally been the bloc’s most outspoken country when it came to confronting Washington on a wide range of trade files. Paris, for instance, played a key role in killing a transatlantic trade agreement between the EU and U.S. (the so-called “TTIP”). Its digital tax angered U.S. Big Tech and triggered a trade war with the Trump administration.
More recently, during its rotating Council of the EU presidency, Paris focused on trade defense measures, which will give Brussels the power to retaliate against unilateral trade measures, including from the U.S.
New tensions are bad news for the upcoming meeting of the Trade and Tech Council early December, which so far has had trouble to show that it’s more than a glorified talking shop.
France won’t be left alone in a possible trade war on electric cars. According to Fabry, these tensions will bring Paris and Berlin closer, as the German car industry is also particularly affected by the U.S. measures.
But the “Buy American” approach is not the only bone of contention. The fact that Europe is increasingly relying on gas imports from the U.S. brought European discontent to the next level.
Although gas import prices fell in September from their all-time highs in August, they were still more than 2.5 times higher than they were a year ago. And, taking into account increased purchase volumes, France’s bill for imports of LNG multiplied more than tenfold in August, year on year, by one estimate.
Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire last week warned that Russia’s war against Ukraine should not result in “American economic domination and a weakening of Europe.” Le Maire criticized the U.S. for selling LNG to Europe “at four times the price at which it sells it to its own companies,” and called on Brussels to take action for a “more balanced economic relationship” between the two continents.
That very same concern is shared by some Commission officials, POLITICO has learned, but also among French industrialists.
It is “hardly contestable” that the U.S. had some economic benefits from the war in Ukraine and suffered less than Europe from its economic consequences, said Bernard Spitz, head of international and European affairs at France’s business lobby Medef.
This article is part of POLITICO Pro
The one-stop-shop solution for policy professionals fusing the depth of POLITICO journalism with the power of technology
