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Tag: tax incentives

  • ‘Inflation will surprise to the downside in 2026’: Why Wall Street expects juiced economy, stock gains this year

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    Investors may be “having a cake and eating it” in 2026, with Wall Street strategists predicting stock market gains driven by Fed rate cuts, tax incentives, and lower-than-expected inflation.

    As Wall Street prepares for this week’s highly anticipated monthly Consumer Price Index report, which is expected to stay unchanged from the prior month at an annual increase of 2.7%, strategists are pointing to cheap oil prices and easing shelter costs as a sign that prices may be cooling.

    “Our view is that inflation will surprise to the downside in 2026,” Longview Economics global economist and chief market strategist Chris Watling told Yahoo Finance last week.

    It’s not all good news on the economic front. Last month’s employment report, released on Friday, showed the economy added fewer jobs than expected to cap a weak 2025.

    But a cooling labor market gives the Federal Reserve reason to cut rates this year, which could push bond yields lower. That’s especially true if President Trump’s pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May shifts the central bank in a more dovish direction.

    Lower yields mean cheaper borrowing costs, which can boost economic activity and keep corporate capital expenditures high.

    “You could really get an economy pretty juiced as we go through this year, because you can have the capex, and you can have the sort of consumption starting to improve as housing fixes up and bond yields move lower,” Watling added. “This is what I call having a cake and eating it.”

    Wall Street is already spotting “green shoots” as companies take advantage of the depreciation tax benefits from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act, signed into law in July.

    “If you are a CFO of a company, and the OBBB allows you to get 100% depreciation for capex in one year … you will absolutely accelerate as much of your multi-year capex spend into 2026 as possible, or risk getting fired for missing those tax benefits,” Nomura Securities equity derivatives analyst Charlie McElligott wrote in a note last week.

    Economic growth happens even as affordability challenges maintain a K-shaped divide, with the bottom half of consumers struggling to cover basic needs. In a nod to affordability ahead of the midterms, Trump recently criticized firms like Blackstone for buying single-family homes as investments, a hot-button issue for voters.

    Read more: What is a ‘K-shaped’ economy, and what’s causing the divide?

    Rents have started to ease after years of relentless growth. That’s one reason Goldman Sachs expects the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to trend toward the Fed’s 2% target. The firm also noted that the one-time price bump from last year’s tariffs is fading, which should further ease inflation.

    “Healthy economic and revenue growth, continued profit strength among the largest US stocks, and an emerging productivity boost from AI adoption should lift S&P 500 EPS by 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027,” Goldman’s Ben Snider wrote on Wednesday.

    The latest data shows worker productivity in the third quarter grew at its fastest clip in two years, as businesses spent heavily on AI and pulled back on hiring.

    That productivity boost is expected to broaden the stock market rally, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) touched all-time highs last week. Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were some of the leading sectors as investors trimmed tech exposure.

    “We’re producing a lot more with less people,” RCM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance on Friday, though he believes the full impact of AI is still a couple of years away.

    Wall Street strategists predict stock market gains in 2026 driven by Fed rate cuts, tax incentives, and lower-than-expected inflation. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

    Against that backdrop, strategists are watching for sectors and companies positioned to benefit from leaner headcounts and growing AI adoption.

    “Pay attention to high human capital businesses — so let’s say finance companies, retail companies, consulting, accounting type businesses,” Clark Capital CIO Sean Clark told Yahoo Finance recently.

    “Quality value companies are now starting to experience the benefit of this AI revolution, driving earnings, driving productivity, [and] driving margins higher,” he added.

    However, some warn that if the labor market is replaced by AI too quickly, it could pose a sudden threat to the broader economy.

    “We term it as the dark side of AI,” Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovative Capital Management, told Yahoo Finance. Urbanowicz estimates that 15%-20% of the layoffs at the end of last year were related to artificial intelligence.

    “If you start to see the jobs market or labor market starting to be replaced by AI in a major way, we think that becomes problematic,” he added.

    StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.
    StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.

    Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

    Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

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  • Federal tax credit for electric vehicles expires, but some state incentives remain

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    The expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, initially passed by Democrats during the Biden administration, leaves consumers looking for other ways to save on their next purchase.Experts say the tax credit previously helped make electric vehicles more affordable, increasing interest in them. Aaron Bragman, the Detroit Bureau Chief at Cars.com, said automakers are now offering electric vehicles that are both profitable for them and affordable for consumers. Bragman noted, “The tax credit has been good for just about everybody. It’s really kind of fostered this whole nascent industry of electric vehicles. It’s gotten people a lot more familiar with them and how they work. It’s helped to build out the infrastructure, the charging infrastructure in the United States, because there’s demand for it. People want the fast charging infrastructure throughout the country, even that has really been starting to accelerate.”There may still be separate incentives available at state and local levels. “The affordable EV isn’t necessarily going away, and there are still some incentives out there,” Bragman said. “It just takes some research and some partnering with your local dealership to find out what those might be where you are.”Car companies such as Ford, Nissan, and Kia are offering deals on electric vehicles, and Tesla has recently changed its referral program to boost incentives for consumers.Keep watching for the latest from the Washington News Bureau:

    The expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, initially passed by Democrats during the Biden administration, leaves consumers looking for other ways to save on their next purchase.

    Experts say the tax credit previously helped make electric vehicles more affordable, increasing interest in them.

    Aaron Bragman, the Detroit Bureau Chief at Cars.com, said automakers are now offering electric vehicles that are both profitable for them and affordable for consumers.

    Bragman noted, “The tax credit has been good for just about everybody. It’s really kind of fostered this whole nascent industry of electric vehicles. It’s gotten people a lot more familiar with them and how they work. It’s helped to build out the infrastructure, the charging infrastructure in the United States, because there’s demand for it. People want the fast charging infrastructure throughout the country, even that has really been starting to accelerate.”

    There may still be separate incentives available at state and local levels.

    “The affordable EV isn’t necessarily going away, and there are still some incentives out there,” Bragman said. “It just takes some research and some partnering with your local dealership to find out what those might be where you are.”

    Car companies such as Ford, Nissan, and Kia are offering deals on electric vehicles, and Tesla has recently changed its referral program to boost incentives for consumers.

    Keep watching for the latest from the Washington News Bureau:

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  • California is about to give Hollywood studios a lucrative tax deal during the writers’ strike | CNN Business

    California is about to give Hollywood studios a lucrative tax deal during the writers’ strike | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    The state of California is about to give movie and TV studios a new lucrative tax perk.

    A bill awaiting California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s signature would the state’s tax incentive program for film and TV productions for five years but with a key update: Studios with more tax credits than they can use will be able to exchange those credits for cash. The bill, part of the state’s overall budget plan, was passed by California legislators on Tuesday, and Newsom is expected to sign it on Friday.

    The bill also mandates any production that receives the tax credit to comply with new on-set firearm safety protocols following the 2021 deadly shooting on the set of Alec Baldwin’s film “Rust,” and it implements requirements aiming to meet diversity hiring targets.

    The new, refundable tax credits come as competition for film and TV production from other states and countries is on the rise. States like New York and Georgia are gaining share of the TV and film market, thanks to their own tax incentive programs, according to a 2021 report from FilmLA — a nonprofit organization that helps creators with production planning and film permitting.

    The bill should be a boon for studios like Netflix. The streaming giant had not previously been able to take full advantage of the tax credit program since it uses a separate research and development incentive from California to significantly reduce its tax liability. In a 2020 SEC filing, Netflix said it had $250 million in California R&D tax credits — far more than it could use.

    Disney and Comcast’s Universal Studios were the only two studios that benefited under California’s existing tax incentive program, due to their relatively larger tax bills from theme parks, according to Democratic assemblywoman Wendy Carrillo, one of the bill’s sponsors. The new bill could benefit other studios that don’t have theme parks in the state, including Warner Bros, which is owned by CNN parent company Warner Bros. Discovery.

    The bill’s safety measures require productions to employ an adviser to oversee production safety and complete detailed risk assessments. Studios must also establish training requirements and standards that focus on the safe handling of firearms. Many of these safety protocols were voluntary before the bill.

    Dave Cortese, the Democratic state senator who introduced the safety protocols in the bill, said research for the legislation began soon after actor Baldwin fired a live round of ammunition from what he said he believed to be an unloaded prop gun during a film’s rehearsal. Cinematographer Halyna Hutchins was killed.

    “Conversations about this legislation started the week after the tragic loss of a cinematographer. Those negotiations have produced the nation’s first and best safety practices for California workers in the state’s vital motion picture industry,” Cortese said.

    In addition to refundable tax credits and stricter safety standards, the bill establishes specific diversity requirements. Studios must submit data about the diversity of their workforce to qualify for the full credit. The bill also adds a new member to the state’s film commission with diversity, equity, and inclusion expertise.

    The tax perk for Hollywood comes amid ongoing tension between the industry’s workforce and the studios’ bosses. The Writers Guild of America, has been on strike since early May, halting the production of many shows. The association’s more than 11,000 members are fighting over substantial issues like pay, the number of writers staffed on any given project, and whether artificial intelligence can be used in writing material.

    Actors may soon stage a work stoppage, as well. Members of the actors’ union, SAG-AFTRA, have voted to authorize a strike against the major studios if they cannot agree to the terms of a new contract. Similar to the WGA, the actors’ union has voiced similar concerns about pay and the use of AI.

    Democratic lawmakers in California celebrated the bill. Carrillo said the plan was a “grand compromise,” and it would help protect jobs in the state.

    “These are hundreds of thousands of jobs, most of which impact Los Angeles County and the city of Los Angeles. They’re good union jobs, they’re production jobs, they’re creative jobs,” she said.

    However, the bill has attracted some criticism. Chris Hoene, the executive director of the California Budget & Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank that provides analysis on state budget issues intending to improve outcomes for low-income communities and people of color in the state, called it “bad policy.”

    “Refundable tax credits were designed to help low-income households… so to take that refundability structure and apply it to a business tax credit, you would think there are some film companies that struggle to make ends meet and don’t make enough money to owe any taxes, but that’s not how it works,” he said.

    Hoene called the new policy a “giveaway that doesn’t have any positive outcomes.”

    The refundable credits are designed to help more than just the big studios, Carrillo said. Film and TV productions help support surrounding businesses in the area, including “small restaurants and catering services,” Carrillo said.

    “It’s very important that California has a competitive advantage and ultimately keeps these jobs and productions in our state while other states continue to announce more incentives,” she added.

    Still, Hoene argued that there were more effective ways to create well-paying jobs in California.

    “If we wanted to take scarce state resources to help workers, we could do that in ways that could provide them with assistance directly, rather than giving it to large corporations who are already minimizing their tax bills in other ways,” he said.

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