ReportWire

Tag: Tariffs

  • Americans plan to spend less this holiday season, survey shows

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    Americans are expected to rein in spending this holiday season by the most amount since the pandemic, as they continue to face pressure from high prices and tariffs.

    That’s according to a new survey released by accounting firm PwC on Wednesday, which predicts Americans this year will reduce holiday spending to $1,552 a person on average, which is 5% less than in 2024. That includes spending on gifts, travel, food and entertainment. 

    If the predictions come to pass, it would represent the most significant drop in holiday spending since 2020. While consumers are not cutting purchases entirely, they are getting smarter about how they stretch their dollars, according to Alison Furman, PwC’s consumer markets industry leader.

    “Inflation is kind of creeping in, and they’re seeing it affect their wallets,” Furman told CBS MoneyWatch. 

    For its report, PwC surveyed 4,000 Americans from Gen Zs to baby boomers over a two-week period from June to July, when tariff-related uncertainty was more pronounced. But any perceived changes in the economy over the next couple of months could alter consumers’ attitude toward spending.

    “Economic signals continue to shift and, between now and December, purchasing behavior could evolve in response,” the report states.

    The generation expected to tighten their spending the most is Gen Z. Respondents from this cohort, ages 17 to 28, said they expect to reduce their holiday budgets by 23% — more than any other generation in the study. That’s due in part to the tough job market facing young Americans, along with rising costs.

    Overall, 84% of consumers expect to cut back spending in general over the next six months, according to the report.

    A slowdown in spending could spell trouble for retailers who depend on holiday sales to shore up revenue toward the end of the year. Since 2019, holiday sales during the months of November and December have accounted for 19% of total retail revenue for the year, according to a National Retail Federation report

    Tariffs, high prices top of mind

    The projected pullback in consumer holiday spending underscores Americans’ shaky confidence in the state of the economy. Worries over inflation and tariffs have already led shoppers to be more judicious with their spending.

    Discretionary spending on categories like indoor and outdoor dining were down in August, according to the U.S. Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index each month. Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations among consumers increased to 6.2%, from 5.7% in July.

    Tighter spending

    PwC expects consumers to approach holiday shopping “more deliberately,” with an eye toward saving money, amid ongoing concerns over tariffs and high prices. 

    Furman said the potential for tariff-related price increases has already made the consumers “very conscious of trying to buy things at a discount.”Case in point: Internet searches for “discount” and “coupon code” have climbed by 11% over the past year, according to the survey.

    With deals in mind, consumers are expected to do a large portion, or 39%, of their total planned holiday gift spending, during the time between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, according to the PwC report. With heightened traffic expected during that five-day stretch, Furman advises shoppers to start looking early for popular items.

    “If you’re interested in very hot items, knowing that they’re going to likely be on shelves sooner, to guarantee that you’ll get them, you may want to shop for them in those early promotional cycles, versus wait until the five-day frenzy,” she said.

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  • Fact vs. Fiction: Did Trump’s Tariffs Raise $8 Trillion in Revenue?

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    Claim by Donald Trump:

    In a Labor Day post, Trump claimed that the U.S. has “already taken in trillions of dollars” from tariffs, including an image suggesting “$8 trillion in tariff revenue.”

    Explanation:

    There is no evidence that tariff revenue under Trump’s second term totals anywhere near $8 trillion. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, total gross customs and excise tax revenue from January 20 to August 28, 2025, was about $156 billion. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates net tariff revenue at $135.7 billion during that time—just 1.7% of the $8 trillion figure.

    Even projections fall far short: the Congressional Budget Office estimates all of Trump’s proposed tariffs through 2035 would raise only $3.3 trillion, less than half of the claimed total.

    The chart accompanying Trump’s post also misled viewers by conflating tariff revenue with “new investment.” Even the most generous calculations of foreign direct investment (FDI)—using Global Business Alliance and BEA data—suggest no more than $350 billion in new investment this year, or just 4.4% of the claimed $8 trillion.

    Conclusion:

    Fact or Fiction? Fiction. Trump’s claim of raising $8 trillion in tariff revenue is wildly exaggerated and unsupported by Treasury, CBO, or BEA data.

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    Media Bias Fact Check

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  • Breaking down Trump legal cases on National Guard, tariffs and more

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    Breaking down Trump legal cases on National Guard, tariffs and more – CBS News










































    Watch CBS News



    President Trump faces several ongoing legal challenges over the extent of his executive power. Jessica Levinson joins to discuss.

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  • The White House says Trump’s tariffs have raised $8 trillion in revenue. That’s not even close.

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    The White House celebrated Labor Day by announcing that President Donald Trump’s “protectionist trade policies have helped drive more than $8 trillion in new U.S. investment.” The accompanying photo refers to “$8 trillion in tariff revenue.” There’s a difference between $8 trillion in U.S. investment and $8 trillion in tariff revenue, but Trump’s trade policies have achieved neither.

    The second claim is easier to refute. The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) calculates the gross tariff and excise tax revenue generated from January 1 to August 28 to be $158.8 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Statements. The customs and excise taxes collected from January 20, when Trump took office, to August 28 amount to about $156 billion.

    According to the Treasury Department’s own data, the president’s policies have clearly not raised anywhere near $8 trillion; they’ve raised 2 percent of this figure. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the tariffs Trump has implemented since January will generate an estimated $3.3 trillion over 10 years—significantly less than the $8 trillion that the White House is claiming the tariffs have already raised.

    Gross tariff revenue isn’t even the most relevant statistic; net tariff revenue is. The BPC explains that the latter “removes ‘certain other excise tax revenue’ and accounts for refunds of tariffs,” i.e., the tariff revenue that stays in federal coffers. Although net tariff revenue is not available in the Daily Treasury Statements, the BPC was able to determine that net tariff revenue was $135.7 billion from January through July 31 using the Treasury’s Monthly Treasury Statements, which account for tariff refunds. Net tariff revenue as a percentage of total imports jumped from about 2.4 percent in March to 5.73 percent in April, reflecting the impact of Liberation Day’s “reciprocal tariffs,” and climbed to 10.31 percent in June.

    Still, the net tariff revenue of $135.7 billion amounts to 1.7 percent of the White House’s claimed $8 trillion in tariff revenue. (That’s neglecting the fact that the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that “$1 of excise tax revenue will lead to a $0.25 decline in income and payroll tax revenue,” according to the BPC.)

    The first claim is more slippery; it’s unclear what the White House means by saying Trump’s policies “helped drive” investment. One interpretation is that it is crediting Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and hostile negotiations for producing more foreign direct investment (FDI) in the U.S. than would have otherwise existed. Even assuming that all FDI since January is the direct result of Trump’s protectionist policies, it is completely inconceivable that $8 trillion has been raised as a result.

    The Global Business Alliance, a trade association that “actively promotes and defends an open economy that welcomes international companies to invest in America,” reported $52.8 billion in FDI in the first quarter of 2025—a 34 percent decrease from 2024’s fourth quarter—citing the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The BEA has not released data for the second or third quarter of 2025, but, even if we generously assume a quarter-to-quarter doubling, meaning $100 billion in the second quarter and $200 billion in the third (of which a month remains), we reach a grand total of a little over $350 billion: 4.4 percent of Trump’s touted $8 trillion in “new investment.”

    The Labor Day post also credited Trump with “creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.” Total nonfarm employment increased by 597,000 from January 2025 to July 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July 2025 report. However, total nonfarm employment increased by 1,073,000 from January 2024 to July 2024. If the White House is crediting Trump’s policies with changes in the economy, then it should recognize that they added nearly half as many jobs to the economy as the Biden administration did over the same time period last year.

    Later on Sunday, the White House said to “Trust in Trump,” sharing a screenshot of Trump’s Truth Social post where he refers to “all of the TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS we have already taken in” with tariffs. The data show that you should reject this fictitious figure, as well as his other claims that tariffs are good for the United States.

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    Jack Nicastro

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  • The rationale for the federal circuit’s ‘radical left’ tariff decision is fundamentally conservative

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    After the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled against his tariffs last week, President Donald Trump repeatedly condemned the decision, which he preposterously warned will ruin the country unless it is overturned by the Supreme Court. “It would be a total disaster for the Country,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday. “If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America.” He reiterated that claim on Sunday: “Our Country would be completely destroyed, and our military power would be instantly obliterated,” he said, adding that “we would become a Third World Nation, with no hope of GREATNESS again.”

    Trump’s prophecies of doom were not the only implausible aspect of his comments. He described the appeals court as “Highly Partisan,” implying that its reasoning was driven by political affiliation, and said the majority was “a Radical Left group of judges,” implying that the result was dictated by ideology rather than a careful consideration of the facts and the law. Trump reflexively criticizes judges who rule against him in language like this, to the point that he has stripped ideological labels of all meaning. In this case, his complaints are especially hard to take seriously.

    The Federal Circuit’s tariff decision addressed two lawsuits, one brought by several businesses and one filed by a dozen states. Both sets of plaintiffs argued that Trump exceeded his statutory authority when he relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose stiff taxes on imports from scores of countries.

    Seven members of the 11-judge panel agreed. And while it is true that six of those judges were appointed by Democratic presidents (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden), the majority also included Alan D. Lourie, who was nominated by George H.W. Bush in 1990. Notably, Lourie was also one of four judges who went further than the majority, arguing that IEEPA “does not authorize the President to impose any tariffs” (emphasis added).

    Four judges dissented, saying the plaintiffs “have not justified summary judgment in their favor on either statutory or constitutional grounds.” Two of the dissenters were appointed by George W. Bush, and two were appointed by Obama.

    These breakdowns do not support Trump’s contention that the judges chose sides based on partisan considerations, as opposed to an honest assessment of the statutory and constitutional issues. That explanation looks even less plausible as applied to the May 28 Court of International Trade (CIT) decision that the Federal Circuit reviewed. Three CIT judges, including one nominated by Ronald Reagan and one nominated by Trump himself, unanimously concluded that the president’s tariffs were not authorized by IEEPA.

    When you consider the reasoning underlying these decisions, the claim that they can be explained only by anti-Trump animus or allegiance to a “Radical Left” ideology looks even sillier. Both courts noted that Trump’s use of IEEPA, which does not mention tariffs at all, was unprecedented and involved an assertion of authority that implicated the “major questions” doctrine, which aims to uphold the separation of powers.

    According to the Supreme Court, that doctrine applies when the executive branch asserts powers of vast “economic and political significance.” In such cases, “the Government must point to ‘clear congressional authorization’ for that asserted power,” the Federal Circuit noted. “The tariffs at issue in this case implicate the concerns animating the major questions doctrine as they are both ‘unheralded’ and ‘transformative.'” The Supreme Court “has explained that where the Government has ‘never previously claimed powers of this magnitude,’ the major questions doctrine may be implicated.”

    Trump claimed to have discovered a heretofore unnoticed delegation of unlimited tariff authority in a statute that is nearly half a century old. That claim, the Federal Circuit concluded, “runs afoul of the major questions doctrine.”

    Far from the invention of “Radical Left” judges, the major questions doctrine stems from a series of Supreme Court decisions spearheaded by conservative justices. The late Antonin Scalia, whom Trump has described as the very model of a “great” jurist, explained the rationale for the doctrine this way in the 2001 case Whitman v. American Trucking Associations: “Congress, we have held, does not alter the fundamental details of a regulatory scheme in vague terms or ancillary provisions—it does not, one might say, hide elephants in mouseholes.”

    The Supreme Court has applied that logic in several decisions rejecting assertions of agency authority, including the Food and Drug Administration’s attempt to regulate tobacco products without explicit congressional authorization, the national eviction moratorium imposed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 vaccine mandate that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration tried to impose on employers in 2021, and the Biden administration’s student debt relief plan. Whatever you might think of those decisions, they are hardly evidence of a “Radical Left” mindset.

    As in those cases, the central question in the tariff case was whether Congress had actually delegated the broad powers claimed by the executive branch. Another issue was whether Congress could, consistent with the Constitution’s separation of powers, delegate such authority. In addition to concluding that IEEPA did not authorize Trump’s tariffs, the Federal Circuit noted that “the Government’s understanding of the scope of authority granted by IEEPA would render it an unconstitutional delegation.”

    The rationale for that ruling is not, by any stretch of the imagination, the product of “Radical Left” thinking. It is conservative in the best sense, aiming to preserve the structure of government established by the Constitution.

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    Jacob Sullum

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  • The federal circuit’s tariff ruling highlights the audacity of Trump’s power grab

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    In ruling against the sweeping tariffs that President Donald Trump purported to impose under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit did not settle the question of whether that law authorizes import taxes. Nor did it uphold the injunction that the Court of International Trade (CIT) issued against the tariffs on May 28. But the Federal Circuit agreed with the CIT that the tariffs are unlawful, and its reasoning highlights the audacity of Trump’s claim that IEEPA empowers him to completely rewrite tariff schedules approved by Congress.

    The decision addresses two challenges to Trump’s tariffs, one brought by several businesses and one filed by a dozen states. Both sets of plaintiffs argued that Trump had illegally seized powers that belong to Congress.

    The Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power to “lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises.” And although Congress has delegated that authority to the president in “numerous statutes,” the Federal Circuit notes in an unsigned opinion joined by seven members of an 11-judge panel, it has always “used clear and precise terms” to do so, “reciting the term ‘duties’ or one of its synonyms.” Furthermore, Congress always has imposed “well-defined procedural and substantive limitations” on the president’s tariff powers.

    IEEPA, by contrast, “neither mentions tariffs (or any of its synonyms) nor has procedural safeguards that contain clear limits on the President’s power to impose tariffs.” Yet under Trump’s reading of the statute, it empowers him to impose any tariffs he wants against any country he chooses for as long as he deems appropriate, provided he perceives an “unusual and extraordinary threat” that constitutes a “national emergency” and avers that the import taxes will “deal with” that threat.

    To justify his tariffs, Trump declared two supposed emergencies, one involving international drug smuggling and the other involving the U.S. trade deficit. The former “emergency,” he said, justified punitive tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, with the aim of encouraging greater cooperation in the war on drugs. The latter “emergency,” he claimed, justified hefty, ever-shifting taxes on imports from dozens of countries, which he implausibly described as “reciprocal.”

    Leaving aside the question of whether it makes sense to characterize drug trafficking and trade imbalances, both of which are longstanding phenomena, as “unusual and extraordinary” threats, Trump’s attempted power grab is striking even for him. “Since IEEPA was promulgated almost fifty years ago, past presidents have invoked IEEPA frequently,” the Federal Circuit notes. “But not once before has a President asserted his authority under IEEPA to impose tariffs on imports or adjust the rates thereof. Rather, presidents have typically invoked IEEPA to restrict financial transactions with specific countries or entities that the President has determined pose an acute threat to the country’s interests.”

    Trump claims to have discovered a heretofore unnoticed tariff power in an IEEPA provision that authorizes the president to “regulate…importation.” And that power, he avers, is not subject to any “procedural and substantive limitations” except for the pro forma requirement that he declare a national emergency based on a foreign threat. As the Federal Circuit dryly observes, “it seems unlikely that Congress intended, in enacting IEEPA, to depart from its past practice and grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs.”

    Trump’s assertion of that authority “runs afoul of the major questions doctrine,” the Federal Circuit says. According to the Supreme Court, that doctrine applies when the executive branch asserts powers of vast “economic and political significance.” In such cases, “the Government must point to ‘clear congressional authorization’ for that asserted power,” the appeals court notes. “The tariffs at issue in this case implicate the concerns animating the major questions doctrine as they are both ‘unheralded’ and ‘transformative.'” The Supreme Court “has explained that where the Government has ‘never previously claimed powers of this magnitude,’ the major questions doctrine may be implicated.”

    The Federal Circuit was unimpressed by the government’s citation of United States v. Yoshida International, a 1975 case in which the now-defunct Court of Customs and Patent Appeals approved a 10 percent import surcharge that President Richard Nixon had briefly imposed in 1971 under the Trading With the Enemy Act (TWEA). Although Nixon relied on a different statute, the government’s lawyers noted, the court concluded that the phrase “regulate importation” in TWEA encompassed tariffs.

    Even assuming that conclusion was correct, the Federal Circuit says, Yoshida “does not hold that TWEA created unlimited authority in the President to revise the tariff schedule, but only the limited temporary authority to impose tariffs that would not exceed the Congressionally approved tariff rates.” Trump, by contrast, claims IEEPA gives him carte blanche to set tariffs, regardless of what Congress has said.

    “The Government’s expansive interpretation of ‘regulate’ is not supported by the plain text of IEEPA,” the Federal Circuit says. “The Government’s reliance on the ratification of our predecessor court’s opinion in [Yoshida] does not overcome this plain meaning.” The appeals court adds that “the Government’s understanding of the scope of authority granted by IEEPA would render it an unconstitutional delegation.”

    Four judges agreed with the majority that IEEPA “does not grant the President authority to impose the type of tariffs imposed by the Executive Orders.” But they went further in a separate opinion, arguing that the statute does not authorize the president to impose any tariffs at all.

    As Reason‘s Eric Boehm notes, the appeals court nevertheless vacated the CIT’s injunction and remanded the case for further consideration in light of the Supreme Court’s June 27 decision in Trump v. CASA. In that June 27 ruling, the Court questioned universal injunctions that judges had issued in two birthright citizenship cases “to the extent that the injunctions are broader than necessary to provide complete relief to each plaintiff with standing to sue.”

    Although the Supreme Court “held that the universal injunctions at issue ‘likely exceed the equitable authority Congress has granted to federal courts,'” the Federal Circuit notes, “it ‘decline[d] to take up…in the first instance’ arguments as to the permissible scope of injunctive relief. Instead, it instructed ‘[t]he lower courts [to] move expeditiously to ensure that, with respect to each plaintiff, the injunctions comport with this rule and otherwise comply with principles of equity’ as outlined in the opinion. We will follow this same practice.”

    On remand, the Federal Circuit says, “the CIT should consider in the first instance whether its grant of a universal injunction comports with the standards outlined by the Supreme Court in CASA.” The CIT, in other words, is tasked with deciding what sort of order is appropriate to grant the plaintiffs “complete relief.” Alternatively, as Boehm suggests, Congress could intervene by asserting the tariff authority that Trump is trying to usurp.

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    Jacob Sullum

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  • A federal appeals court ruled against Trump’s tariffs. Here’s what could happen next.

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    President Trump has claimed the authority to bypass Congress and impose sweeping tariffs on foreign products, arguing the import duties are necessary to strengthen the U.S. economy.

    Now a federal appeals court has thrown a roadblock in his path.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled Friday that Mr. Trump went too far when he declared national emergencies to justify tariffs on nearly every country on Earth. The ruling largely upheld a May decision by a federal trade court in New York. 

    But Friday’s 7-4 appeals court decision tossed out a part of that ruling striking down the tariffs immediately, giving his administration time to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. The ruling represents a major setback for Mr. Trump, who has said his trade policies will enrich the U.S. by bringing back manufacturing jobs and contributing billions in new revenue for the federal government. 

    “This ruling highlights a serious legal threat to one of the president’s most high-profile economic policies,” said Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory company deVere Group, in an emailed report.

    On Friday, Mr. Trump lashed out against the 7-4 ruling in a Truth Social post, calling the appeals court “Highly Partisan” and noting that the tariffs are still in effect. 

    Six of the seven judges who ruled against the tariffs are appointees of Democratic presidents, while the seventh is an appointee of former President George H.W. Bush. Of the four judges who dissented, two were appointed by former President Obama and two by former President George W. Bush.

    Here’s what could happen next as the legal case proceeds.

    How did the dispute arise? 

    Friday’s ruling came as part of a months-long legal challenge over the tariffs brought by Democratic states and small businesses, which are arguing that the president has exceeded his authority in issuing the import duties. 

    The appeals court’s decision is focused on the tariffs Mr. Trump imposed in April on most trading partners, along with earlier levies on China, Mexico and Canada.

    Mr. Trump on April 2 — or Liberation Day, he called it — imposed so-called reciprocal tariffs of up to 50% on countries with which the U.S. runs a trade deficit and 10% baseline tariffs on almost everybody else.

    The president later suspended the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to give countries time to negotiate trade agreements with the U.S. — and reduce their barriers to American exports. Some of them did — including the U.K., Japan and the EU — and agreed to deals with Mr. Trump to avoid even bigger tariffs.

    Countries that didn’t comply faced higher tariffs earlier this month. Laos got rocked with a 40% tariff, for instance, and Algeria with a 30% levy. Mr. Trump also kept the baseline tariffs in place.

    What is the IEEPA?

    Mr. Trump justified the taxes under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, by declaring longstanding U.S. trade deficits “a national emergency.”

    In February, he’d invoked the law to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, saying that illegal immigration and drug trafficking amounted to a national emergency and that the three countries needed to do more to stop it.

    The U.S. Constitution gives Congress the power to set taxes, including tariffs. But lawmakers have gradually let presidents assume more power over tariffs — and Mr. Trump has made the most of it.

    Does the ruling apply to all tariffs?

    No, the court’s ruling doesn’t cover all of Mr. Trump tariffs. For instance, his levies on foreign steel, aluminum and autos were imposed under a different regulation after Commerce Department investigations concluded that those imports were threats to U.S. national security.

    Nor does it include tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on China in his first term — and President Biden kept — after a government investigation concluded that the Chinese used unfair practices to give their own technology firms an edge over rivals from the U.S. and other Western countries.

    The administration had argued that courts had approved then-President Richard Nixon’s emergency use of tariffs in the economic chaos that followed his decision to end a policy that linked the U.S. dollar to the price of gold. The Nixon administration successfully cited its authority under the 1917 Trading With Enemy Act, which preceded and supplied some of the legal language later used in IEEPA.

    In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York rejected the argument, ruling that Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs “exceed any authority granted to the President” under the emergency powers law. In reaching its decision, the trade court combined two challenges — one by five businesses and one by 12 U.S. states — into a single case.

    On Friday, the federal appeals court wrote in its 7-4 ruling that “it seems unlikely that Congress intended to … grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs.”

    What happens next? 

    The president vowed to take the fight to the Supreme Court. “If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America,” he wrote on his social media platform on Friday.

    A dissent from the judges who disagreed with Friday’s ruling clears a possible legal path for Mr. Trump, concluding that the 1977 law allowing for emergency actions “is not an unconstitutional delegation of legislative authority under the Supreme Court’s decisions,” which have allowed the legislature to grant some tariffing authorities to the president.

    The government has argued that if Mr. Trump’s tariffs are struck down, it might have to refund some of the import taxes that it’s collected, delivering a financial blow to the U.S. Treasury. Revenue from tariffs totaled $159 billion by July, more than double what it was at the same point the year before. 

    Tariffs are paid by U.S. importers, such as American manufacturers or retailers that rely on foreign-made products. While the U.S. companies typically swallow some of the cost, they pass on much of the added expenses to consumers in the form of higher prices. 

    The Justice Department warned in a legal filing this month that revoking the tariffs could mean “financial ruin” for the U.S.

    It could also put Mr. Trump on shaky ground in trying to impose tariffs going forward.

    “While existing trade deals may not automatically unravel, the administration could lose a pillar of its negotiating strategy, which may embolden foreign governments to resist future demands, delay implementation of prior commitments or even seek to renegotiate terms,” Ashley Akers, senior counsel at the Holland & Knight law firm and a former Justice Department trial lawyer, said before the appeals court decision.

    Does the Trump administration have other options? 

    Mr. Trump does have alternative laws for imposing import taxes, but they would limit the speed and severity with which he could act. 

    For instance, in its decision in May, the trade court noted that Mr. Trump retains more limited power to impose tariffs to address trade deficits under another statute, the Trade Act of 1974. But that law restricts tariffs to 15% and to just 150 days on countries with which the U.S. runs big trade deficits.

    The administration could also invoke levies under a different legal authority — Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 — as it did with tariffs on foreign steel, aluminum and automobiles. But that requires a Commerce Department investigation and cannot be imposed at the president’s sole discretion.

    “Even if the tariffs are struck down, we believe the Trump administration will look for new ways to tax imports or otherwise raise revenue from companies selling into the U.S.,” noted Green of the deVere Group.

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  • Federal Circuit Rules Against Trump’s Massive IEEPA Tariffs in Our Case Challenging Them

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    NA

    Today the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled against President Trump’s massive “Liberation Day” tariffs in VOS Selections v. Trump, a case filed by Liberty Justice Center and myself on behalf of five small US businesses (we have since been joined by prominent Supreme Court litigators Michael McConnell and Neal Katyal; Neal skillfully conducted the oral argument before the Federal Circuit). The ruling also covers the case filed by twelve states led by Oregon; they prevailed, as well. On these points, a 7-4 majority of the en banc Federal Circuit affirmed the earlier trial court decision issued by the Court of International Trade. The court also remanded the issue of how broad the injunction against the tariffs should be to the Court of International Trade. That litigation is, however, postponed until October 14, to give the government a chance to ask the Supreme Court to review the case.

    The majority concluded that the tariffs in question are not authorized by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977  (IEEPA), and that the major questions doctrine precludes interpreting IEEPA to give the president the virtually unlimited tariff authority he claims.

    The majority, concurring and dissenting opinions, are 127 pages long, and I will not attempt to cover everything in them here. I will merely highlight some key points.

    Here is an excerpt from the per curiam majority decision (issued in the name of all seven majority judges), explaining why IEEPA doesn’t authorize the tariffs imposed by the president:

    [I]n each statute delegating tariff power to the President, Congress has provided specific substantive limitations and procedural guidelines to be followed in imposing any such tariffs. It seems unlikely that Congress intended, in enacting IEEPA, to depart from its past practice and grant the President unlimited authority to impose tariffs. The statute neither mentions tariffs (or any of its synonyms) nor has procedural safeguards that contain clear limits on the President’s power to impose tariffs….

    [W]henever Congress intends to delegate to the President the authority to impose tariffs, it does so explicitly, either by using unequivocal terms like tariff and duty, or via an overall structure which makes clear that Congress is referring to tariffs. This is no surprise, as the core Congressional power to impose taxes such as tariffs is vested exclusively in the legislative branch by the Constitution; when Congress delegates this power in the first instance, it does so clearly and unambiguously…

    Contrary to the Government’s assertion, the mere authorization to “regulate” does not in and of itself imply the authority to impose tariffs. The power to “regulate” has long been understood to be distinct from the power to “tax.” In fact, the Constitution vests these authorities in Congress separately. U.S. Const. art. I, § 8 cl. 1, 3; see also Gibbons v. Ogden, 22 U.S. 1, 201 (1824) (“It is, that all duties, imposts, and excises, shall be uniform. In a separate clause of the enumeration, the power to regulate commerce is
    given, as being entirely distinct from the right to levy taxes and imposts, and as being a new power, not before conferred. The constitution, then, considers these powers as
    substantive, and distinct from each other.”); Nat’l Fed’n. of Indep. Bus. v. Sebelius, 567 U.S. 519, 552, 567 (2012) (holding that the individual mandate provision of the Patient
    Protection and Affordable Care Act was a permissible exercise of Congress’s taxing power but exceeded Congress’s power to regulate commerce). While Congress may use its taxing power in a manner that has a regulatory effect,… the power to tax is not always incident to the power to regulate…

    Upon declaring an emergency under IEEPA, a President may, in relevant part, “investigate, block during the pendency of an investigation, regulate, direct and compel, nullify, void, prevent or prohibit” the “importation or exportation of . . . any property in which any foreign country or a national thereof has any interest.” 50 U.S.C. § 1702(a)(1)(B). “Regulate” must be read in the context of these other verbs, none of which involve monetary actions or suggest the power to tax or impose tariffs…

    The majority also emphasized that the government’s claim to unlimited tariff authority goes against the major questions doctrine:

    The Government’s interpretation of IEEPA as providing the President power to impose unlimited tariffs also runs afoul of the major questions doctrine. See, e.g., Oral Arg.16at 19:28–19:39 (the Government stating “there is no limit on the cap of the tariff in IEEPA itself”). The Supreme Court has explained that the doctrine applies in “cases in
    which the ‘history and the breadth of the authority . . . asserted'” by the Government entails vast “economic and political significance.”West Virginia v. EPA, 597 U.S. 697,
    721 (2022)…. In such cases, there may be a “‘reason to hesitate before concluding that Congress’ meant to confer such authority.” Id…. When the major questions doctrine is
    implicated, the Government must point to “clear congressional authorization” for that asserted power. Id. at 732….

    The tariffs at issue in this case implicate the concerns animating the major questions doctrine as they are both “unheralded” and “transformative.” Id. at 722, 724; see also
    id. at 725 (“[J]ust as established practice may shed light on the extent of power conveyed by general statutory language, so the want of assertion of power by those who presumably would be alert to exercise it, is equally significant in determining whether such power was actually conferred.)” ….

    Since IEEPA was promulgated almost fifty years ago, past presidents have invoked IEEPA frequently. But not once before has a President asserted his authority under IEEPA to impose tariffs on imports or adjust the rates thereof. Rather, presidents have typically invoked IEEPA to restrict financial transactions with specific countries or entities that the President has determined pose an acute threat to the country’s interests….

    Additionally,…  tariffs are a core Congressional power. The “basic and consequential
    tradeoffs” that are inherent in the President’s decision to mpose the Trafficking and Reciprocal Tariffs “are ones that Congress would likely have intended for itself.” Ne-
    braska, 600 U.S. at 506 (quoting West Virginia, 597 U.S. at 730). Moreover, the United States imports more than $4 trillion of goods annually; these imports account for
    14 percent of the nation’s economy. J.A. 215. The Government itself has claimed that the Reciprocal Tariffs will “generate between $2.3 trillion and $3.3 trillion over the
    budget window….” The Executive’s use of tariffs qualifies as a decision of vast economic and political significance, so the Government must “point to clear
    congressional authorization” for its interpretation of IEEPA. West Virginia, 597 U.S. at 723…

    For the reasons discussed above, we discern no clear congressional authorization by IEEPA for tariffs of the magnitude of the Reciprocal Tariffs and Trafficking Tariffs.
    Reading the phrase “regulate . . . importation” to include imposing these tariffs is “a wafer-thin reed on which to rest such sweeping power.” Ala. Ass’n of Realtors v. Dep’t of Health & Hum. Servs., 594 U.S. 758, 765 (2021)

    The majority goes on to reject claims that the major questions doctrine does not apply to delegations to the president (their reasoning is similar to that which I outlined here). It also rejects the argument that the doctrine does not apply because tariffs are a “foreign affairs” power.

    The majority did not address whether the government’s claim of unlimited tariff authority would also run afoul of the nondelegation doctrine, which limits the extent to which Congress can delegate legislative authority to the executive. But it does note the significance of the fact that tariffs are a “core congressional power.”

    The majority explicitly chose not resolve the issue of whether IEEPA can be used to impose any tariffs at all. But their reasoning suggests either that such imposition is indeed categorically barred, or that any tariff authority that exists under IEEPA is strictly limited.

    The concurring opinion, written by Judge Cunningham, on behalf of four judges goes further than the majority. It concludes that IEEPA does not authorize any tariffs at all. It also indicates that the sort of sweeping delegation of tariff authority claimed by the president here is precluded by the nondelegation doctrine, which which limits the extent to which Congress can delegate legislative power to the president, relying in part on the Supreme Court’s recent ruling in FCC v. Consumers’ Research (which was helpful to our case in a number of ways):

    The Government’s interpretation of IEEPA would render it an unconstitutional delegation. Because taxation authority constitutionally rests with Congress, any delegation of that authority to the President must at least set out an intelligible principle that includes “both ‘the general policy'” that the President “must pursue and ‘the boundaries of [its] delegated authority.'” FCC v. Consumers’ Rsch., 145 S. Ct. 2482, 2497 (2025)… Similarly, Congress must “provide[ ] sufficient standards to enable both ‘the courts and the public [to] ascertain'” whether the President “has followed the law.” Id…. Because this is undoubtedly a case that “affect[s] the entire national economy,” the “‘guidance’ needed is greater . . . than when [Congress] addresses a narrow, technical issue.” Id…. For taxes, both “quantitative” and “qualitative limits on how much money” the President can raise are permissible, but it would “pose a constitutional problem” if the “statute gives the [executive branch] power, all on its own, to raise [a] hypothetical $5 trillion” with no “ceiling.” Id. at 2501–02.

    The Government’s interpretation of IEEPA would be a functionally limitless delegation of Congressional taxation authority.

    The majority did however vacate the trial court’s universal injunction against the tariffs, and remand the issue of the scope of the injunction to the trial court to determine how broad it should be, in light of the Supreme Court’s recent ruling restricting universal injunctions, in Trump v. CASAWe have a variety of arguments as to why a broad injunction is appropriate in this case, even after CASA (see relevant section of our brief).

    The dissent by Judge Taranto, on behalf of himself and three other judges, largely accepts many of the government’s arguments. I won’t go over them in detail here, as this post is already too long. Obviously, I have responded to these arguments in some detail in previous writings, and our legal team also did so in our briefs.

    The court has, for the moment, stayed its ruling until October 14, to give the government a chance to ask the Supreme Court to review the decision. We shall see what the justices choose to do.

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    Ilya Somin

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  • Buyer beware: End of de minimis exemption means higher prices for overseas goods, experts say

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    The end of the de minimis tax loophole on Friday means that low-cost shipments to the U.S. are no longer exempt from import duties, a potential hit to consumers ordering goods from abroad. 

    Under the prior tax break, parcels containing goods worth less than $800 were not subject to tariffs, making many products from overseas, such as clothing and beauty products, a cheaper alternative to U.S.-made items.  

    Now, stepped-up duties apply to all online orders entering the U.S. That could lead to higher costs and longer delivery times given that customs agents must now inspect and process the shipments, experts said. 

    “This means that, when making e-commerce purchases from your favorite international sites that you didn’t have to worry about paying duties on before — now you have to,” Rathna Sharad, CEO and co-founder of FlavorCloud, a global logistics platform, told CBS MoneyWatch. “This increases the cost of common consumer goods, and it varies widely by category of product.”

    In her case, Sharad said the cost of the Korean beauty products she likes has already risen about 15%. “It’s a massive change for U.S. consumers, and a big change for brands and retailers because they have to scramble to figure out their pricing strategies and what this means for them.”

    The White House on July 30 announced it would suspend the de minimis treatment, calling it a “catastrophic loophole” that provided a pathway for opioids “as well as other unsafe or below-market products that harm American workers and businesses” to enter the U.S.  

    The White house said in a statement to CBS MoneyWatch that the loophole was exploited by bad actors. 

    “Between 2015 and 2024, shipments that entered the United States under de minimis ballooned by over 900%,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement. “Thanks to President Trump’s historic action, the days of criminal exporters and drug traffickers exploiting the de minimis loophole to flood our country with counterfeit goods, lead toys and illicit drugs like fentanyl are over.” 

    The International Trade Administration, a federal agency, also cited statements from companies praising the move. 

    “The de minimis loophole has long provided an opportunity for some importers & retailers to avoid paying their fair share of U.S. duties,” Gap said Friday. “These packages are also typically subject to minimal inspection, raising potential safety concerns for U.S. consumers. Closing this loophole strengthens our nation’s supply chain integrity, improves consumer protection, and levels the playing field for all retailers.”

    Peter Navarro, Mr. Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, said on a call with reporters on Thursday that ending the exemption would generate up to $10 billion a year in tariff revenues, while also creating thousands of jobs. 

    How much pricier?

    According to a recent FlavorCloud analysis, a pair of lined slippers made in China and shipped to the U.S. that previously cost $30 when the de minimis exemption was in force will now cost $44.37, an increase of 51%. That figure factors in several U.S.tariffs on imports: a 12.5% levy on slippers; 20% duty on Chinese goods; and a 10% universal tariff on all imports, as well as a $2.62 merchandise processing fee to calculate the new price.

    A nutritional supplement from Canada that formerly cost $37 will now run $60.17 with tariffs in effect, FlavorCloud also found. And a stainless steel water bottle from the U.K. that cost $15 when ordered online in the U.S. will see its price rise to $21.81 once tariffs are applied. 

    Additionally, a chef’s knife from Japan that previously sold for $240 online could cost $298.49 after accounting for applicable tariffs, according to the same analysis. 

    To be sure, some foreign manufacturers could choose to absorb the cost of higher U.S. tariffs — which are typically paid by importers here at home — experts said.  

    “Because consumers want bargains, many companies may choose to bite the bullet and incur the increased import costs if they could remain competitive,” said Augustine Lo, a partner at international law firm Dorsey & Whitney, while noting that abolishing the de minimis loophole amounts to a heavy burden on small and midsize businesses. 

    Indeed, for now tariffs have had relatively little impact on the rate of U.S. inflation, economic data shows, although forecasters note that it can take up to a year for levies to trickle into consumer prices. 

    Avoiding surprise costs

    Shoppers can take certain steps to avoid being hit with surprise costs when ordering goods online from overseas. 

    First, check a product’s country of origin before making a purchase. U.S.-based sellers often ship goods from their warehouses abroad, which could greatly increase the cost of an item now that tariffs are being applied. More specifically, look for tariff surcharges listed as line items on companies’ websites, and decide if the extra charges are worth the cost. 

    For example, if the imports duties on a particular good exceed its value, it may not be worth buying. At minimum, factor in such added costs into your budget while shopping, FlavorCloud recommends. 

    The bottom line is that the end of the de minimis loophole amounts to a major shift for consumers and businesses alike, according to Sean Henry, CEO and co-founder of Stord, an e-commerce fulfillment platform. 

    “It’s a large change because over the last decade, de minimis has accounted for such a large portion of online sales,” Henry told CBS MoneyWatch. 

    In 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol processed $65 billion worth of de minimis packages. 

    “It was a way to allow international sellers a fast path, with no paperwork or customs duties, into the U.S.,” Henry said. “It’s like they were in the fast line at the airport and ran right through. Now, all of a sudden, those same packages are being put into general boarding, and it’s going to slow everything down.”

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  • Appeals Court Finds President Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs Unconstitutional But Leaves Them In Place For Now – KXL

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal appeals court is ruling that President Donald Trump had no legal right to impose sweeping tariffs but is leaving in place for now his effort to build a protectionist wall around the American economy.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled Friday that Trump wasn’t legally allowed to declare national emergencies and impose import taxes on almost every country on earth, largely upholding a May decision by a specialized federal trade court in New York.

    But the court tossed out a part of that ruling striking down the tariffs immediately, allowing his administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court.

    More about:

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    Grant McHill

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  • Here are the biggest takeaways from the government’s latest inflation data

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    Inflation continued to run hot in July, underlining the Federal Review’s dilemma as it looks to lower prices for American consumers while propping up a job market that is starting to wobble. 

    Prices across the U.S. rose at an annual rate of 2.6% last month, according to personal consumption expenditures data released on Friday. That’s the same figure as in June, a sign inflation remains persistent. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, inflation in July actually ticked up to 2.9% from a year ago, up from 2.8% in June.

     Read on for a breakdown of Friday’s PCE report.

    How are consumers faring?

    The latest PCE data shows that consumer spending rose 0.5% in July, suggesting that Americans are continuing to open their wallets even in the face of economic uncertainty.

    But while people continue to spend, many consumers are increasingly having to make trade-offs on what they spend their money on, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CBS MoneyWatch. 

    “Consumers are trying to push through — they’re doing the best they can, but they’re increasingly under pressure, and therefore they’re being more cautious with discretionary outlets,” he said. “They travel less. They spend less on restaurants, spend more cautiously on transportation.”

    Such caution can augur a deeper slump given that consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity. The closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed that Americans are increasingly concerned about inflation. 

    How fast are prices rising? (Line chart)

    Although inflation has cooled significantly since peaking in 2022, it remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% annual target. And consumers continue to feel the pain in the form of higher prices for some groceries as well as rising electricity costs. Another key inflation gauge — the Consumer Price Index — shows that the price of coffee was up 14.8% from a year ago, while beef and egg costs were 15.5% and 16.4%, respectively. 

    Are tariffs impacting inflation?

    Not yet. In a positive sign, the price of goods, which are most susceptible to tariffs than services, cooled slightly in July, the PCE data shows, decreasing 0.1% from the month prior. That suggests tariffs have had a minimal impact on prices so far.

    “It’s not showing up in a goods prices, in the government statistics at least,” Adam Crisafulli, head of Vital Knowledge, told CBS MoneyWatch.

    Still, analysts say inflation could bare its teeth more in the coming months as U.S. tariffs start to trickle through the economy. 

    “We continue to expect tariffs to take a growing bite out of growth in real income and real consumer spending,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told investors in a report. 

    A critical question facing the economy is whether any tariff-induced inflation amounts to a one-time boost to prices or results in a more prolonged increase. Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid out the scenarios in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, earlier this month, noting that even if inflation does end up being a “one-time” scenario, it will still “take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks.”

    What does the latest inflation data mean for a Fed rate cut?

    Most Wall Street analysts think the latest inflation figures keep the Fed on track to lower interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 meeting. 

    “Today’s numbers on both the personal consumption, expenditure, and income and spending, were right down the middle of the fairway,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist for B. Riley Wealth. “This leaves the door wide open for the Fed to cut rates in September, and likely again in October and in December.”

    Traders put the likelihood of a rate cut at 87%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. 

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  • “De minimis” U.S. tariffs exemption for low-value imports ends

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    An exemption that allowed low-value parcels shipped to the United States to avoid tariffs ended at 12:01 a.m. Friday, Trump administration officials said.

    President Trump signed an executive order suspending what’s known as the de minimis exemption late last month. 

    At the time, the White House said that would close what it called a “catastrophic loophole” that shippers use to “evade tariffs and funnel deadly synthetic opioids or below-market products” into the U.S.

    The exemption applied to parcels valued at $800 or less and let overseas retailers ship inexpensive goods to consumers in the U.S. tax-free. 

    Mr. Trump “is putting an end to the proliferation of shippers worldwide that, among other things, deceptively exploit the de minimis privilege in an effort to evade duties, inspection, and U.S. law,” the White House said in a fact sheet outlining the new policy.

    The president “ending of the deadly de minimum loophole will save thousands of American lives by restricting the flow of narcotics and other dangerous prohibited items, and add up to $10 billion a year in tariff revenues to our Treasury,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told reporters Thursday, the Reuters news agency reported.  

    But there will still be a six-month transition period when postal service shippers can choose to pay a flat duty of $80 to $200 per package depending on the country of origin, Reuters said, citing Trump administration officials.

    Mr. Trump ended the de minimis loophole for imports from China and Hong Kong in May. It had allowed retailers such as Shein and Temu to ship ultra low-cost apparel and other goods to U.S.-based consumers at bargain-basement prices. Shipments from China and Hong Kong account for most de minimis shipments to the U.S., according to the White House.

    The exemption’s end now applies to all nations.

    The de minimis provision was added to the Tariff Act of 1930 several years after the law passed. It was intended to facilitate trade by eliminating the administrative burden of collecting modest import duties on low-cost goods. 

    The number of low-value parcels entering the U.S. has surged over the past decade. Between 2015 and 2025, that figure jumped from 134 million shipments per year to nearly 1.4 billion. Customs and Border Patrol was processing more than 4 million de minimis shipments to the U.S. daily, the White House said. 

    Retailers such as Shein and Temu were forced to scramble when the loophole for imports from China and Hong Kong was suspended China-based Temu halted shipments of Chinese goods to American customers and shifted to only selling products to U.S. shoppers that could be sourced from the company’s U.S. warehouses.

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  • The Duty-Free Loophole Is Closing. What That Means for You—and Your Packages

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    Want to buy something online and have it shipped into the US? Well, get ready to pay more for the privilege. Starting Friday, small packages imported into the country will be subjected to a duty.

    The Trump administration is levying a new tax on all packages coming into the country—regardless of value—starting August 29. This is the latest push in President Trump’s global trade war.

    The new policy is the result of an executive order issued in July that officially suspended the de minimis import exemption for all countries. Previously this exemption allowed shipments valued at less than $800 to enter the country without being subjected to a duty fee. The change means any seller shipping packages into the US will now be charged a fee even if the value is well under $800.

    The fee amount for imports varies depending on the tariff rate the Trump administration has levied on the shipment’s specific country of origin. This fee can range from 10 to 50 percent of the item’s value. For at least the next six months, shippers can also choose to pay a flat fee instead of the new value-based duty, and that fee will be anywhere between $80 and $200 per shipment.

    Lots of people are freaking out about this. Postal services in Europe, Mexico, and Japan, along with companies like DHL have said they will suspend shipments to the US. Independent sellers on platforms like Etsy are worrying that the additional costs will make it pricier to ship their bespoke goods. And, like the tariff shuffles earlier this year, the move has caused further chaos for merchants and supply chains as sellers consider how much more to charge going forward.

    “There’s obviously going to be some sort of a balancing act of not trying to raise prices quickly to avoid shocking consumers,” says Juozas Kaziukėnas, a technology analyst who focuses on global trade and services like Temu and Shein. “There’s really no way to get around it.”

    Gift It

    If you’re not selling something and just want to send a package across country lines, you can still declare the item a gift. If you’re using a service like Royal Mail in the UK, the package will avoid the new costs if you classify it as a gift and declare the value to be under $100.

    Declaring something a gift is not exactly a winning strategy for businesses or Etsy sellers, though, as it would be seen as an effort to wriggle out of the increased cost.

    “Catching tariff avoidance is probably one of the top priorities for the DOJ right now,” Kaziukėnas says. “It’s not something you want to mess around with.”

    Sellers Beware

    While there has been a lot of consternation about tariffs this year, Kaziukėnas says most of the chaos and upheaval has been felt by the sellers. The new fees are also likely to hit independent sellers harder, since their smaller sales volumes makes it more difficult for them to absorb the added costs.

    “Things you would buy on eBay, things you would buy on Etsy, random things from Japan or random things from somewhere in Portugal, those are now uniquely exposed to this change.” Kaziukėnas says.

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    Boone Ashworth

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  • ‘Tariffs will simply put us all out of business’: Trump’s trade war is crushing American crafters

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    As President Donald Trump’s tariffs make life less affordable and predictable for Americans, they’re also threatening to make it less creative. American craft stores are struggling to keep up with ever-changing trade policies, which are making the foreign-made products they stock more expensive and difficult to access. Many foreign craft supply companies are now unable to ship to American consumers at all.

    Dana Chadwell founded Chattanooga Yarn Company three years ago when she “saw a niche in the local market that wasn’t being filled by the big box stores such as JoAnn, Michael’s, and Hobby Lobby.” She envisioned “a place to find fine yarns for hand knitting and crochet, and a place to build community around yarn crafting.” It’s been a successful venture “in both the business and community aspect” and “I’m truly living my dreams,” Chadwell explains—but tariffs have thrown her shop into a world of uncertainty.

    Over 90 percent of her stock has been affected by tariffs, Chadwell says. “Every supplier I have, minus one, from major to minor, has had a price increase,” she continues. “Because the tariff situation has been so unpredictable…it has made long term planning impossible.”

    “I feel like I’m stuck in a reactive rather than proactive status,” says Chadwell.

    From aluminum knitting needles to printed garment fabric to bottles of oil paint, American crafters work with many materials that are produced abroad. That has left them particularly vulnerable to Trump’s trade war. Imports from Europe currently face tariffs of 15 percent, and while sky-high tariffs on China are paused until mid-November, they still stand at 57.6 percent, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Worse still, Trump is doing away with the de minimis exemption, which allows goods valued at under $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free. Casual crafters and bustling craft stores alike will see their costs go up.

    Chadwell did all of her fall 2025 shopping this past spring—something she says is typical of yarn shops. “Think about how many changes there have been to tariffs since then,” she points out. “It has been extremely chaotic.” With no hope of planning for the long term, she decided to buy more inventory than she typically would in an attempt to lock in “lower, pre-tariff costs.” As a business owner, she doesn’t intend to spend beyond her means—”I opened with no debt and intend to stay that way,” she explains—so she emptied her rainy-day fund “in order to front-load [her] ordering.”

    Chadwell has told customers that they can expect higher prices starting this fall. “I simply can’t ‘eat’ the tariffs as a small business,” she says. She’s stopped carrying certain products “due to tariff-based cost increases” and tried to stock lower-priced items “to help my customers keep within their family budgets.” She’s brought in more American-made yarns, but “those are luxury yarns without the tariffs, so they’re a higher priced option.”

    Exclusively stocking U.S.-produced materials isn’t an option for most craft stores. “Tariffs impact American-made yarns as well,” pointed out Fibre Space, a yarn store in Alexandria, Virginia. That’s because “American-made goods still rely on materials made in other countries.” Yarn “is an agricultural product,” observes Chadwell, “so certain crops and certain livestock produce the best fiber in very specific climates that aren’t necessarily” found in the United States. Meanwhile, “needles, notions, doodads, [and] bags…can only be produced at much higher prices” here.

    Joann craft store, long the first stop for budget-conscious crafters or people hoping to try out a new hobby, closed its doors in May. Many craft shops “have started to try to bring in products at a more affordable price point to serve” those customers, says Abby Glassenberg, co-founder and president of the Craft Industry Alliance, a trade association for craft businesses. “But with the tariffs, that becomes also more difficult, because a lot of those more budget-friendly supplies are made overseas.”

    Once the de minimis exemption expires on Friday, even small orders of goods will be subject to country-specific tariffs. “According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, 1.36 billion packages that qualified for the exemption arrived during 2024,” reported Reason‘s Eric Boehm. Several European shippers, including DHL, Britain’s Royal Mail, and France’s La Poste, have announced that they will temporarily pause shipments to the U.S., “citing ambiguous policies and the need to establish brand-new logistics systems,” reported NPR. Danish, Swedish, Italian, and Austrian postal companies have also halted U.S.-bound shipments.

    Even before those decisions would have prevented European vendors from selling their products to American crafters, several companies cut off orders to the United States. The popular Danish yarn brand Knitting for Olive announced that it would only ship to American yarn stores—not direct to individual crafters—as a result of U.S. trade policies. The British craft store Wool Warehouse suspended all shipments to the U.S. on August 21. “Clearly this is not something we want to do,” explained the shop, calling U.S. sales “a significant part of our business.” But “the likely average extra charges will be in the region of 50%” per order. The shop anticipated that few customers would be willing to pay that charge upon receipt, leading “to HUGE amounts of undelivered packages being returned to us.”

    The “vast majority” of businesses in America’s crafts industry are small businesses, says Glassenberg. Many rely on the de minimis exemption to place small wholesale orders to afford the component parts that go into craft kits and handmade products. “The reality is the supply chain in the U.S. is just not robust enough at this time to be able to provide those items,” she continues.

    Some crafters will find ways to adapt. Glassenberg sees increased interest in mending workshops and creative reuse centers, which are secondhand craft supply stores. In online forums about tariffs, knitters and crocheters predict that they’ll weather the trade war by working through their yarn stashes or unraveling previous projects and thrifted sweaters to reuse the material.

    Still, those tactics leave out many casual crafters who just want to buy a cheap crochet hook and a skein of acrylic yarn. That might sound like a small thing, but tariffs prevent all sorts of voluntary transactions that shape lives and culture in big—and often inconspicuous—ways. That means shops that won’t be started, gifts that won’t be made by hand, and hobbies that won’t be taken up. And more immediately, tariffs are punishing business owners who want to help Americans fill their lives with more creativity.

    “Those of us who are running our shops as a profitable business are deeply concerned but also very frustrated because we feel like we have no control over our fates,” says Chadwell. “There is a point at which tariffs will simply put us all out of business no matter how well we manage our shops.”

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    Fiona Harrigan

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  • Investors are looking at bargains in China, says HSBC investment boss, pushed by AI discounts and fears over Trump 2.0

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    When President Trump returned to the White House his intention was clear: Make America Great Again. But the United States’s economic partners, and some of its rivals, are also benefitting from having the unorthodox showman back in the Oval Office.

    Investors are watching the U.S. stock market with both enthusiasm and trepidation: The S&P 500 is up 15% over the past year, Treasuries have remained relatively steady, and the Fed’s monetary policy is expected to begin a downwards trajectory.

    But overlaying the strong fundamentals are questions: Is the soaring growth of the Magnificent 7 stocks overvalued on the unfulfilled promises of AI? Will Trump’s unusual foreign policy materially damage the domestic economy? And where might the true winners of the artificial intelligence race emerge from?

    Increasingly, investors are answering those questions by diversifting into a key region says Willem Sels, the global chief investment officer for HSBC’s global private bank. That region is China.

    America continues to prove to its economic resilience and earnings deliverables, Sels told Fortune in an exclusive interview, but geopolitical uncertainty is pushing investors towards balancing risk with other regions.

    Traditionally, the question of political influence over portfolios has centered on emerging markets, said Sels, but over the past few years that has moved into developed markets as well. As such, diversification has become more of a focus—particularly for business owners looking to spread risk between the economy they operate in and the assets used to protect their wealth.

    “When a client comes in the door … the first discussion is please build a global portfolio. Maybe try to have as little as possible in your home country if you already have your business here, because that’s diversification,” Sels said. “Clearly the debate over the last few months was about, will there be diversification away from the U.S.? And there are a number of elements to that.”

    Part of the question is how dominant U.S. Big Tech has become in equity markets, with the Magnificent 7 stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) providing most of the growth. As such, if these stocks hiccup it can have major ramifications for portfolios.

    “Clearly you potentially need to do something around that … to diversify,” Sels said, “We highlight things like make sure that you don’t only have the growth stocks but have some value stocks, do some sector diversification, do some geographical diversification and so on. 

    “The other thing that triggered that diversification discussion obviously was the rapid policy changes in the U.S., and the growth of the debt pile, which led people to ask the question, is there a de-dollarization story and what does that mean in terms of my portfolio and other people’s portfolio? What we’ve seen in the data is that there have been two months or so where there were some outflows out of bonds and equity markets, but that has not lasted—to a large extent because policy has become a little bit clearer.”

    Safe haven out of Europe and into China

    “People are adding a little bit to other regions, adding a little bit to other sectors to be less concentrated in the U.S. market, but they are not fleeing away from it,” Sels continued. “There was enthusiasm for European stocks, but it was very short-lived. The Asian investors over the last 15 [to] 20 years that I’ve been going there find it very hard to get excited about Europe.”

    Part of the problem is that these investors don’t see as many new or emerging companies which could materially change the European economy, and there’s also the issue of brand recognition beyond companies like LVMH and BMW, Sels said.

    “This is the first time that we’re again seeing flows from Europe into China,” Sels added. “That is to a large extent because of the AI trade that people want to play, and then secondly this concept of anti-involution … with the supply side reforms which would address the issue of overcapacity, therefore the deflation issue and therefore the earnings growth, because what you have in China is a lot of very competitive companies … therefore they have no pressing power and therefore earnings growth has been reasonably weak.”

    China has signaled a shift in priorities to address involution, with the country’s Central Finance and Economic Affairs Commission telling President Xi Jinping in a meeting last month that Beijing must “focus on key and difficult issues, regulate enterprises’ disorderly and low-price competition” and “guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity.”

    Beijing is no stranger to the issue. In 2015 the government launched similar action to address overcapacity, particularly in key regions like steel and coal, in order to boost corporate profitability.

    Flash forward to 2025 and “they’re now addressing that,” Sels said, “Therefore we think that earnings expectations will go up … one of the main obstacles for our clients had been the belief that [Chinese companies are] over-competing and therefore your earnings are not there, the economic growth is potentially there, but your earnings are not there.” 

    “That’s now changing, so we’re seeing flows back and obviously also encouraged by ‘How can I diversify my big U.S. trunk of assets?’”

    AI discount

    With discussions about diversification out of U.S. remaining active, China seems to have emerged as the region to balance that risk, Sels said. And Beijing’s typically lower share prices also offer the category of the moment, AI, at a bargain.

    In a note published last week, HSBC noted that within the AI ecosystem, infrastructure stocks are outperforming enablers and adopters—at 22.2% versus 11.3% and 13.5% since July. Indeed, this week Chinese chipmaker Cambricon Technologies briefly became the country’s most expensive stock, surging 10% on Wednesday to 1,465 yuan ($204.62). At the time of writing, the share price has dropped back but is up 112% for the year to date.

    And while Cambricon exemplifies the more expensive end of the scale, Sels highlights that other equivalents to U.S. stocks can be found at a “30 to 40% discount.”

    “We’re basically saying, listen, don’t just look at the chips makers but also look at the guys that build out the infrastructure around it. The guys that build out the energy, the electricity supply around it, the robotics and automation where it is not just a matter of we move the data a little bit—this is real, big innovation. And so by diversifying throughout the AI ecosystem, I think you address a little bit the question about valuations.”

    China’s stock market is soaring: The SSE Composite Index is up 33.4% over the past year while the S&P 500 is up 14.9%. While the growth in China is marked, HSBC’s research points out U.S. AI-related capex (driven by the “Big 4” of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta along with
    Stargate and other private companies) are outspending China’s “Big 4” (Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and Baidu, as well as telecom services companies) by eight to 10 times.

    Moreover, HSBC’s research adds: “U.S. firms achieve higher returns on AI capex, with cloud platforms generating significantly more revenue than their Chinese counterparts – close to USD $400bn in the U.S. vs. USD $60bn in China in 2024, according to Statista.”

    So while clients may be balancing against over-reliance on American companies, Sels said, the upside fundamentals of the U.S. remain strong—enough so to take a recession off the table. Indeed, while blips in tech stocks recently led to questions over an AI bubble, the HSBC boss remained bullish: “We certainly think that that AI liftoff is structural in nature.”

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    Eleanor Pringle

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  • August Consumer Confidence Dips In US With Jobs, Tariffs, And High Prices Driving Most Unease – KXL

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans’ view of the U.S. economy declined modestly in August as anxiety over a weakening job market grew for the eighth straight month.

    The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index ticked down by1.3 points to 97.4 in August, down from July’s 98.7, but in the same narrow range of the past three months.

    A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market fell by 1.2 points to 74.8, remaining significantly below 80, the marker that can signal a recession ahead.

    Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation also fell modestly, to 131.2 in August from 132.8 in July.

    More about:

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    Grant McHill

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  • Whirlpool hopes Trump’s tariffs will give the American appliance maker a competitive edge

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    Whirlpool, the century-old American appliance manufacturer known for its washers, dryers and other home appliances, says Trump’s tariffs could give it a leg up on competitors that rely heavily on imports.

    The American manufacturer of home, kitchen and laundry appliances says it makes 80% of its products in the U.S., where it operates 10 factories. 

    “You’re absolutely proud to know that it was built in America, in Ohio, and in these small communities that thrive,” Jason Ebert, senior vice president of North American manufacturing at Whirlpool, told CBS News. 

    Ebert hopes that the company’s large domestic manufacturing footprint positions it for success amid the Trump administration’s trade war. President Trump has said he’s using tariffs as a tool to revitalize American industry by limiting importers’ ability to undercut domestic manufacturers on price.

    Ebert said its U.S. factories are well-positioned to handle a surge in demand. 

    “When the factory is running the way we want, every three seconds a unit’s coming out of the factory,” he said.

    He added that the company’s Clyde, Ohio, factory is not currently running at capacity, because customer demand doesn’t require it to turn out as many machines it’s capable of producing. 

    “We’ve seen volumes decline over the past three to four years,” Ebert said. 

    He attributes the sales dip to the ability of foreign competitors — including South Korea’s LG and Samsung — to undercut Whirlpool’s U.S. prices by using cheaper imported steel. 

    Whirlpool, by contrast, sources 96% of metal for domestic products from the U.S., according to Ebert, leading to higher prices for American consumers. 

    For this reason, Whirlpool hopes President Trump’s 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum will allow the company to better compete with the likes of LG and Samsung. 

    Pay the penalty on steel

    “Our competition overseas, really just on the raw material side — just take steel and resin — when the tariff is in place, they’re going to have to pay that penalty,” Ebert said. “They either are going to make less money or they are going to have to charge more for the consumer.”

    “That puts their price in line with ours,” Ebert added. 

    Tariffs on imported washing machines during President Trump’s first term spurred domestic manufacturing while upping prices on washing machines by an average of $86, according to research from the University of Chicago and the Federal Reserve. 

    If demand for domestic-made appliances increases, Ebert said Whirlpool is ready to ramp up hiring to produce more machines. 

    He also said the company is harnessing AI to make its workers more efficient, without replacing them, to reduce labor costs.

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  • Small businesses are scrambling as US tariff exemption comes to an end

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    (CNN) — International postal services are suspending shipments to the United States after an exemption on tariff duties for small packages is set to expire. It’s the latest example of how President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade policy is impacting US consumers and businesses.

    Beginning Friday, the “de minimis” exemption, which allowed shipments of goods worth $800 or less to enter the United States duty free, will be eliminated.

    It’s another blow to the exemption that provided a loophole for e-commerce giants: In May, the Trump administration suspended the rule on packages coming from China and Hong Kong. Those high duties, which were reduced from 120% to 54%, especially hurt low-cost sellers like Shein and Temu.

    European and Asian postal services have taken matters into their own hands by announcing plans to halt shipments as early as Monday. Singapore’s SingPost and India’s Department of Posts said they will also temporarily suspend some shipments to the United States.

    International postal service DHL said August 25 will be the last day it accepts shipments to the United States, joining European peers in halting shipments, including the Austrian Post, which will stop accepting shipments to the United States on August 26.

    “There is currently insufficient information available on the customs clearance procedures that will be required in the future. This tightening of regulations poses major challenges for all postal companies worldwide when shipping goods to the USA,” the Austrian Post said.

    The change is expected to affect discount sellers, like Amazon Haul and TikTok Shop, as well as online marketplaces Etsy and Shopify, all of which have connected US consumers to businesses worldwide.

    Reshaping business models

    US Customs and Border Protection estimated that more than 1.36 billion de minimis shipments entered the country last fiscal year. The agency processes more than 4 million de minimis shipments each day.

    According to the latest executive order, businesses may face an $80 per item charge for a country with a tariff rate less than 16%, or costs as high as $160 per item for a country with a tariff rate of between 16% and 25%, and $200 per item for a country with a tariff rate above 25%. On August 7, the US imposed new tariff rates on many trading partners, with Brazil facing the highest tariff rate, at 50%.

    Abbott Atelier Jewelry, a Vancouver, Canada-based business, warned customers in an Instagram post that it would “pause shopping for a little while as we look for a solution” and August 25 would be the “cut off date to bring orders across the border.”

    Some businesses are passing the additional tariff costs on to shoppers.

    Korean cosmetics brand Olive Young said that once the de minimis exemption ends, 15% duties will be applied to all orders, “regardless of the purchase amount,” beginning August 27. The duty and taxes will be shown at checkout, so “there will be no additional charges upon delivery.”

    Wool Warehouse, a United Kingdom-based yarn and crafting company, estimated extra charges on its exports to the United States may average 50% more. But the company doubts customers would eat the additional costs and decided to suspend shipping on August 21.

    “Clearly this is not something we want to do. The US is a significant part of our business. This decision is based on our current understanding of the rules,” the company wrote on its website.

    Britain’s Royal Mail will also halt services for US shipments beginning Tuesday. It would last roughly two days, until a system is prepared for the new shipping requirements.

    Etsy recommended sellers pay duties and other fees when purchasing shipping labels. That option allows tariff-inclusive prices to be present and calculated on Etsy for a “seamless shopping experience.”

    But some Etsy sellers plan to halt sales to US customers anyway.

    Shed Maid, a UK-based jewelry maker, said its shop would close to US customers from August 29 — a customer base that accounts for 50% of its orders, according to a post on TikTok.

    “It is going to have a huge impact on my business … I’m not sure what I’m going to do,” they said, adding, “I hope to be able to send to (American customers) again soon.”

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    Auzinea Bacon and CNN

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  • Trump teases tariffs on imported furniture

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    Trump teases tariffs on imported furniture

    President Donald Trump has announced an investigation into tariffs on foreign-made furniture, which could affect prices and manufacturing in the U.S.

    Updated: 4:31 AM PDT Aug 23, 2025

    Editorial Standards

    President Donald Trump said on Friday that new tariffs on foreign-made furniture are coming later this year following an investigation.”Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.”A White House official clarified that the president is referencing a previously announced investigation that “will assess the national security risks arising from the United States’ increasing dependence on imported timber, lumber, and derivative products like paper, furniture, and cabinetry.”Nevertheless, the president’s comments on Friday sank some furniture stocks, from Wayfair to Williams-Sonoma. An industry coalition, called “Furniture for America,” expressed concerns about steeper tariffs earlier this year in written comments to the Commerce Department.”There is no rational relationship between imports of wood products or furniture and the national security of the United States,” the coalition wrote. “Second, no amount of tariffs will bring back American furniture manufacturing back to its prior levels. Tariffs will harm manufacturing still being done in the United States.” The White House said new tariffs on this sector would not stack on top of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs that are already targeting a wide range of countries, including major furniture suppliers like China and Vietnam. Federal data suggests those tariffs may be starting to show up in some furniture prices for consumers. The latest Consumer Price Index shows that, while overall inflation held steady between June and July 2025, furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9 percent month-to-month. Some experts have identified this as an early warning sign, while conceding that the impact of tariffs on prices has generally been less severe than anticipated, perhaps because many businesses are absorbing added costs instead of passing them on to consumers. It remains to be seen how Trump’s latest batch of tariffs on most trading partners that took effect earlier this month will impact these trends.

    President Donald Trump said on Friday that new tariffs on foreign-made furniture are coming later this year following an investigation.

    “Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.”

    A White House official clarified that the president is referencing a previously announced investigation that “will assess the national security risks arising from the United States’ increasing dependence on imported timber, lumber, and derivative products like paper, furniture, and cabinetry.”

    Nevertheless, the president’s comments on Friday sank some furniture stocks, from Wayfair to Williams-Sonoma.

    An industry coalition, called “Furniture for America,” expressed concerns about steeper tariffs earlier this year in written comments to the Commerce Department.

    “There is no rational relationship between imports of wood products or furniture and the national security of the United States,” the coalition wrote. “Second, no amount of tariffs will bring back American furniture manufacturing back to its prior levels. Tariffs will harm manufacturing still being done in the United States.”

    The White House said new tariffs on this sector would not stack on top of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs that are already targeting a wide range of countries, including major furniture suppliers like China and Vietnam.

    Federal data suggests those tariffs may be starting to show up in some furniture prices for consumers.

    The latest Consumer Price Index shows that, while overall inflation held steady between June and July 2025, furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9 percent month-to-month. Some experts have identified this as an early warning sign, while conceding that the impact of tariffs on prices has generally been less severe than anticipated, perhaps because many businesses are absorbing added costs instead of passing them on to consumers.

    It remains to be seen how Trump’s latest batch of tariffs on most trading partners that took effect earlier this month will impact these trends.

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  • Trump teases tariffs on imported furniture

    [ad_1]

    Trump teases tariffs on imported furniture

    President Donald Trump has announced an investigation into tariffs on foreign-made furniture, which could affect prices and manufacturing in the U.S.

    Updated: 7:31 AM EDT Aug 23, 2025

    Editorial Standards

    President Donald Trump said on Friday that new tariffs on foreign-made furniture are coming later this year following an investigation.”Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.”A White House official clarified that the president is referencing a previously announced investigation that “will assess the national security risks arising from the United States’ increasing dependence on imported timber, lumber, and derivative products like paper, furniture, and cabinetry.”Nevertheless, the president’s comments on Friday sank some furniture stocks, from Wayfair to Williams-Sonoma. An industry coalition, called “Furniture for America,” expressed concerns about steeper tariffs earlier this year in written comments to the Commerce Department.”There is no rational relationship between imports of wood products or furniture and the national security of the United States,” the coalition wrote. “Second, no amount of tariffs will bring back American furniture manufacturing back to its prior levels. Tariffs will harm manufacturing still being done in the United States.” The White House said new tariffs on this sector would not stack on top of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs that are already targeting a wide range of countries, including major furniture suppliers like China and Vietnam. Federal data suggests those tariffs may be starting to show up in some furniture prices for consumers. The latest Consumer Price Index shows that, while overall inflation held steady between June and July 2025, furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9 percent month-to-month. Some experts have identified this as an early warning sign, while conceding that the impact of tariffs on prices has generally been less severe than anticipated, perhaps because many businesses are absorbing added costs instead of passing them on to consumers. It remains to be seen how Trump’s latest batch of tariffs on most trading partners that took effect earlier this month will impact these trends.

    President Donald Trump said on Friday that new tariffs on foreign-made furniture are coming later this year following an investigation.

    “Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.”

    A White House official clarified that the president is referencing a previously announced investigation that “will assess the national security risks arising from the United States’ increasing dependence on imported timber, lumber, and derivative products like paper, furniture, and cabinetry.”

    Nevertheless, the president’s comments on Friday sank some furniture stocks, from Wayfair to Williams-Sonoma.

    An industry coalition, called “Furniture for America,” expressed concerns about steeper tariffs earlier this year in written comments to the Commerce Department.

    “There is no rational relationship between imports of wood products or furniture and the national security of the United States,” the coalition wrote. “Second, no amount of tariffs will bring back American furniture manufacturing back to its prior levels. Tariffs will harm manufacturing still being done in the United States.”

    The White House said new tariffs on this sector would not stack on top of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs that are already targeting a wide range of countries, including major furniture suppliers like China and Vietnam.

    Federal data suggests those tariffs may be starting to show up in some furniture prices for consumers.

    The latest Consumer Price Index shows that, while overall inflation held steady between June and July 2025, furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9 percent month-to-month. Some experts have identified this as an early warning sign, while conceding that the impact of tariffs on prices has generally been less severe than anticipated, perhaps because many businesses are absorbing added costs instead of passing them on to consumers.

    It remains to be seen how Trump’s latest batch of tariffs on most trading partners that took effect earlier this month will impact these trends.

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