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Tag: tariffs and trade

  • Trump’s $100k fee on the H-1B visa was so sudden that people don’t even know how to pay it | Fortune

    The Trump administration’s abrupt decision to slap a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas has stunned and confused employers, students and workers from the United States to India and beyond.

    Since announcing the decision Friday, the White House has tried to reassure jittery companies that the fee does not apply to existing visa holders and that their H-1B employees traveling abroad will not be stranded, unable to re-enter the United States without coming up with $100,000. The new policy took effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Sunday.

    Despite the effort at reassurance, “there’s still some folks out there recommending to their H-1B employees that they not travel right now until it’s a little clearer,” Leon Rodriguez, a partner at the Seyfarth law firm who was director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services in the Obama administration.

    Other questions remain, some of them basic. “What actually is the process for paying this $100,000,” Rodriguez said. “Usually, when an agency is going to charge a fee, there’s a whole process. There’s the creation of forms for collecting that fee. … At this point, we don’t actually know what that process will be like.”

    “Key questions remain, such as whether the new fee will apply to universities and nonprofit research organizations, employers that Congress has exempted from the annual limit on H-1B visas,” said Bo Cooper, partner at the immigration law firm Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen & Loewy.

    Here’s a look at what the H-1B visa program is and what the Trump administration is doing to it.

    What are H-1B visas and who uses them?

    Created by the 1990 Immigration Act, they are type of nonimmigrant visa, meant to allow American companies to bring in people with technical skills that are hard to find in the United States. The visas are not intended for people who want to stay permanently. Some eventually do, but only after transitioning to different immigration statuses.

    An H-1B allows employers to hire foreign workers who have specialized skills and a bachelor’s degree or the equivalent. They are good for three years and can be extended another three years, suggesting that there are now “around 700,000 H-1B visa holders in the country and another half a million or so dependents,” economist Stephen Brown of Capital Economics wrote in a commentary Monday.

    At least 60% of the H-1B visas approved since 2012 have been for computer-related jobs, according to the Pew Research Center. But hospitals, banks, universities and a wide range of other employers can and do apply for H-1B visas.

    The number of new visas issued annually is capped at 65,000, plus an additional 20,000 for people with a master’s degree or higher. Those visas are handed out by a lottery. Some employers, such as universities and nonprofits, are exempt from the limits.

    According to Pew, nearly three-quarters of those whose applications were approved in 2023 came from India.

    What did Trump do?

    The White House announced the $100,000 fee. The application fee is currently $215, plus other relatively nominal processing charges. It took effect barely 24 hours later.

    Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the fee would be applied annually, for a total of $600,000 over the maximum number of renewals allowed. The White House clarified Saturday that it was a one-time fee and said it would not apply to current visa holders.

    Trump also rolled out a $1 million “gold card” visa for wealthy individuals.

    The moves are certain to draw lawsuits charging that the president was improperly sidestepping Congress with a dramatic overhaul of the legal immigration system.

    Why target H-1B visas?

    Critics say they undercut American workers, luring people from overseas who are often willing to work for less than American tech workers do. Staffing companies such as Tata Consultancy Services often supply Indian workers to corporate clients.

    “To take advantage of artificially low labor costs incentivized by the program, companies close their IT divisions, fire their American staff, and outsource IT jobs to lower-paid foreign workers,” the White House said in its proclamation Friday.

    In a 2020 report, the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute found that 60% of the H-1B positions certified by U.S. Labor Department are assigned wages below the median for the job.

    Brown at Capital Economics wrote that “it is hard to disagree with the administration’s argument that the program needs reform.”

    Giovanni Peri, director of the Global Migration Center at the University of California, Davis, said that abuses of the program — such as bringing in mid-level coders to replace higher-paid Americans — do occur but are relatively rare.

    Most H-1B visa holders, he said, really are highly skilled workers who are hard to find. “Most of these people come in, and they have helped the productivity of firms; they have helped innovation,” Peri said. “They have complemented the work of Americans, and they have allowed growth.’’

    What impact will the H-1B crackdown have?

    Brown said that many tech firms can probably afford to pay $100,000 to bring in skilled workers.

    “Nonetheless,″ he wrote, “the upfront fee will clearly be too high for many companies to stomach. Last year, the healthcare, retail and accommodation & food services sectors accounted for a quarter of H-1B visas between them, and firms in those sectors will probably find it harder to afford the fee.″

    The higher fee — along with other Trump administration attempts to curb immigration — is likely to reduce the U.S. labor supply and push wages higher, Brown said.

    Foreign workers like Alan Wu are worried – and stunned by the speed with which Trump disrupted the H-1B process. “Can you release some policy which impacts tons of people just like that?” said Wu, who is working in Indianapolis as a data scientist for a pharmaceutical company.

    He is working legally on his student visa after earning a doctorate. He’s failed to win the H-1B lottery for two consecutive years. And he’s now rethinking his plan to live permanently in the United States, where he’s lived for more than a decade. “I am definitely concerned about my job now that the cost and risk of hiring a foreigner is so high,” he said.

    Navneet Singh, who runs a consultancy “Go Global Immigration” in India’s Punjab state, said changes to H-1B visa policies are likely to significantly impact future migration to the U.S., particularly from India.

    “Trump is trying to suffocate new immigrants who are skilled, so that they won’t take the jobs away from the average American. But by doing so, they will be making (U.S.) production expensive,” Singh said.

    He said the new policy is likely to create advantages for competitors in other countries. “Countries like France, Netherlands, Germany and Canada are set to gain from this move,” he added.

    Some Indian students aspiring to pursue higher studies in the U.S. are disappointed. “It feels like a door closing,” said one aspiring student who requested anonymity.

    What businesses will be hurt the most?

    Greg Morrisett, dean and vice provost at Cornell Tech, said startups and small businesses are likely to be the most affected by the fees since there’s “no way they can” pay them. Cornell Tech, for instance, has launched about 120 startups and the “vast majority” have students coming from overseas. The result? “They’ll pick up and move to Europe or Asia, wherever they can find,” he said.

    “The big tech companies will likely move a lot of operations and things into other countries. We saw this when, for example, you know, Ireland made it really attractive from a tax perspective. All of a sudden all the headquarters move to Ireland,” Morrisett said.

    And startups, he added, “the next Amazon, the next Google will give up here and go somewhere else and then we won’t have that advantage in the next generation of tech leadership.”

    ____

    Barbara Ortutay reported from Oakland, California, and Piyush Nagpal from New Delhi, India.

    AP Writer Fu Ting contributed from Washington.

    Paul Wiseman, Barbara Ortutay, Piyush Nagpal, The Associated Press

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  • Trump may use tariff revenue to bail out farmers, agricultural secretary says. They’re reeling from challenges caused by the levies to begin with | Fortune

    President Donald Trump is weighing a bailout program for farmers that would use tariff income, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. The U.S. agricultural industry is preparing for a harvest season that will likely be characterized by dwindling export opportunities and more expensive tools and equipment as a result of the administration’s aggressive tariff policy.

    “There may be circumstances under which we will be very seriously looking to and announcing a package soon,” Rollins told the Financial Times on Wednesday, adding that using tariff income to finance the package would be “absolutely a potential.”

    In April, Rollins announced the Trump administration would consider providing aid to farmers after trade groups responded critically to tariff plans.

    The administration’s trade policies have already impacted the price of necessary tools for farmers, including a more-than-15% tariff rate on self-propelled machines like tractors and nearly 25% on herbicides and some pesticides, in part because of trade disputes with Canada, according to August data from the North Dakota State University Agricultural Trade Monitor. Agricultural machinery manufacturer John Deere has warned of the adverse impact of tariffs on its own business, including a $600 million hit from the levies in fiscal 2025. 

    Retaliatory tariffs from China as a result of the trade war has also hobbled soybean farmers, who previously relied on China for more than 20% of its soybean exports. Chinese tariffs on the crop reached 34%, making U.S.-exported soybeans more expensive to Chinese importers than beans from Brazil. This effectively prices the U.S. out of the Chinese soybean market ahead of the autumn harvest season, according to the American Soybean Association.

    “Retaliatory tariffs have blunted U.S. soybean growers’ advantage, restricting their access to the very market where demand is growing fastest,” the trade group said in an August report.

    To be sure, not everyone in the agriculture industry is sour on Trump’s trade policies. Some farmers—such as shrimp farmers in Indiana—are celebrating the levies for blocking cheap foreign competitors from gaining U.S. market share. 

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture has laid the blame of today’s agriculture struggles on former President Joe Biden, saying his administration inherited a good farm economy, but “erased” Trump’s efforts to keep interest rates low and open new markets, resulting in a $50 billion agricultural trade deficit. 

    Agricultural exports reached an all-time high in 2022 under the Biden administration, according to USDA data. But despite the record, in 2023, imports exceeded exports by $21 billion.

    The USDA did not provide Fortune any additional information about what a potential farmer bailout program would look like.

    “We are constantly assessing the farm economy and exploring the need for further assistance but have not made a determination if an additional program is needed at this time,” a USDA spokesperson told Fortune in a statement.

    How will a potential bailout impact farmers?

    A bailout from the Trump administration may help to plug the economic holes left by trade dispute fallouts, but long-term erosion in certain agricultural markets will likely remain, according to Wendong Zhang, an associate professor of applied economics and policy at Cornell University’s SC Johnson School of Business.

    “It will compensate for the immediate economic losses due to tariffs, but it doesn’t necessarily improve the long-term competitiveness of agriculture on the global stage,” Zhang told Fortune. “This doesn’t help address the reliability of the U.S. in using these policies on the global stage as well.”

    A similar scenario played out in 2019, following the slew of tariffs Trump outlined in his first term, Zhang said. Between mid-2018 and 2019, U.S. farmers lost $27 billion in U.S. agricultural exports, according to a 2022 report from the USDA. As a result, Trump gave U.S. farmers $28 billion in subsidies, effectively making those losses whole, Zhang said.

    However, economic impacts lingered. While the U.S. regained some of China’s soybean market share from Brazil, that market share remained below pre-retaliatory tariff levels one year after a trade deal was made, according to the USDA report.

    Despite damage to the long-term health of the markets, farmers—a loyal constituency of Trump’s—have historically been supportive of tariffs and administrative aid, seeing the potential for long-term financial gain. According to a 2019 study from Zhang and his colleagues, more than half of farmers in Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois were somewhat or strongly supportive of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products, despite 76% of them recognizing U.S. farmers would take a hit from the levies. More than 60% admitted U.S. agriculture would lose markets as a result of the tariffs.

    These farmers will likely maintain their attitudes about the Trump administration, but the impact of this round of tariffs will be harder to predict and parse through, Zhang explained. Unlike Trump’s first term, when the administration primarily went after trade with China, Trump has imposed tariffs on numerous countries, further complicating the U.S.’ place in global agricultural export markets.

    “There’s so many players and so many potential products, and there’s so many moving parts that…it’s really hard to to really know which ones will be affected,” Zhang said.

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

    Sasha Rogelberg

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  • European firms still can’t easily get Chinese rare earths, says business lobby | Fortune Asia

    European firms still face challenges in securing access to crucial rare earths from China, a business lobby warned Wednesday, despite a July deal to speed up exports.

    China dominates the global industry for extracting and refining the strategic minerals, giving it vital leverage in a renewed trade war this year with Washington.

    Since April, Beijing has required licenses for certain exports, sending ripple effects across worldwide manufacturing sectors.

    Following a tense summit in July hosted by Beijing, European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen said that leaders had agreed to an improved mechanism for Chinese exports of rare earth minerals to the bloc.

    But in its annual position paper released Wednesday, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said that “many companies—particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)—are still experiencing significant supply chain disruptions”.

    “No long-term, sustainable solution has been put forward,” it said, adding that the Chamber is in “regular contact” with Chinese authorities on the matter.

    “We have a number of members who are right now suffering significant losses because of these bottlenecks,” Chamber president Jens Eskelund told journalists.

    “We have raised with our members more than 140 applications and it’s a fraction of these so far that have been resolved,” he said.

    “So this has not gone away.”

    In its latest publication, the lobby representing over 1,600 member companies put forward 1,141 recommendations to Chinese policymakers, aimed at smoothing over various obstacles faced by European firms in the country.

    Chief among those hurdles this year, Eskelund said, is a wavering Chinese economy that has struggled to mount a robust rebound since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Sluggish consumption, a manufacturing glut and prolonged woes in the country’s vast property sector are among the main challenges now vexing Beijing policymakers and businesses.

    In a sign of entrenched woes facing the world’s second-largest economy, data released this week showed factory output and consumption rising in August at their weakest pace in around a year.

    “I actually see a greater convergence in terms of the challenges Chinese companies have and the challenges foreign companies have,” said Eskelund.

    “The big enemy here—that’s the state of the domestic economy and supply-demand balance,” he said.

    “I think we see completely eye-to-eye with the vast majority of Chinese companies.”

    AFP

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  • China starts probes targeting US semiconductor sector | Fortune

    China launched two investigations targeting the US semiconductor sector ahead of planned talks between the two nations on trade and other issues.

    The Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Saturday that it’s opened an anti-dumping probe relating to certain American-made analog IC chips, the sort of products sold by Texas Instruments Inc. and Analog Devices Inc. At the same time, the ministry also kicked off an anti-discrimination investigation into US moves against the Chinese chip sector, according to a separate statement.

    The probes comes shortly after the US added 23 more China-based companies to its entity list, which imposes restrictions on businesses deemed to be “acting contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the US.”

    China’s public rebuke of US trade measures sets up a tense opening for a multi-day meeting between top officials on both sides. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade, economic and national security issues. The talks come after months of back and forth on trade negotiations and a pause on the Trump administration’s elevated tariffs on China while the two sides seek to work out a mutually agreeable deal.

    Read more: Trump Extends China Truce for 90 Days, Averting Tariff Hike

    Semiconductors have grown into a key ground of contestation, as the US has cut off China’s access to the most advanced artificial intelligence accelerators and used the licensing of some less-powerful Nvidia Corp. hardware as a bargaining chip — though Chinese officials have pushed backand expressed reservations about security risks.

    The unsettled state of negotiations has also found expression in China recently making its first use of a so-called anti-circumvention investigation that led to anti-dumping duties on US optical fiber imports. That tool is expected to play a greater role in the future, according to state TV.

    Read more: China Slams US for Imposing New Sanctions Ahead of Spain Talks

    “The US has taken a series of prohibitions and restrictions against China in the field of integrated circuits over recent years, including 301 investigations and export control measures,” a commerce ministry spokesperson said in another statement. “Those protectionist practices are suspected of discrimination against China and are a containment and suppression of China’s development of advanced computing chips and high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence.”

    Officials at the US Trade Representative and spokespeople for Texas Instruments and Analog Devices did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Bessent and He’s discussions will cover, among other matters, the status of ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok, a service that President Donald Trump has estimated could be worth as much as $500 billion to the US. TikTok has until next week to reach a deal to ensure it continues operations in the US, though such deadlines have already been extended several times this year. Efforts to combat money laundering will also be on the agenda, according to the US Treasury Department.

    Read More: China Begins Probe Into US Chip Grants, Alleged Dumping

    China said in January that it will investigate allegations the US dumps lower-end chips and unfairly subsidizes its own chipmakers, marking one of Beijing’s strongest retaliatory moves against American technology sanctions. The anti-dumping probe will run for about a year and may be extended by another six months, if needed, while the anti-bias probe usually takes about three months, according to the trade regulator.

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    Bloomberg

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  • The Fed got it wrong and is late again, top economist says, as job gains collapse

    Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian said the Federal Reserve is behind the curve in lowering rates now that the economy is slowing, just as it was tardy in hiking rates when inflation was spiking.

    The latest jobs report revealed the U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August with revisions to prior months showing June actually saw a decline. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to a four-year high of 4.3%.

    “I think they have gotten it wrong,” he told CNBC on Friday. “I think once again they’re late. They will cut in September, and I suspect there will also be discussion should they cut by 25 or 50” basis points.

    That would mark another policy mistake in recent years. As the economy began to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, prices began surging, but the Fed was slow to hike rates. When it finally started in 2022, it launched the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades, though the economy didn’t tip into a recession as was widely expected.

    El-Erian’s remarks echo President Donald Trump’s criticism of the central bank. Trump has regularly insulted Chairman Jerome Powell, and even toyed with firing him earlier this year. Meanwhile, he has moved to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who is fighting her dismissal in court.

    The Fed should’ve cut rates in July, but Powell’s view of the job market was too narrow and ignored the weakness that was building under the surface, El-Erian said.

    The risk with waiting to provide support to a weakening labor market is that it can deteriorate in a “nonlinear” fashion, meaning that job losses can quickly accelerate, he explained.

    For his part, Powell has pointed to the unemployment rate, which has been relatively steady for more than year, noting that the supply of workers in the labor market has dropped alongside a decline in demand.

    Trump’s immigration crackdown has sent more than 1 million workers out of the labor force this year. As a result, the breakeven level of job gains that are needed to keep unemployment flat is lower than it used to be.

    At the same time, Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is forcing policymakers to balance the risks of further stoking inflation, which has been climbing as Trump’s tariffs ripple through the supply chain.

    Tariffs are also weighing on the job market. In a note on Saturday, Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, observed that job growth in tariff-impacted sectors is negative, while sectors not directly impacted by tariffs are declining but still in positive territory.

    There’s still time for the Fed to correct its mistake, and perhaps cut rates more aggressively, El Erian said. But the risks to the economy are elevated as lower-income households have seen their financial security decline.

    “Could they play catch-up? Yes, they could. Hopefully they will, but it’s a more risky operation than a lot of people expect it to be,” he warned.

    It’s also not certain the Fed can actually save the economy. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi previously warned that with inflation still climbing, the central bank will have a hard time coming to the rescue with a steep easing cycle.

    Similarly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly said rate cuts will reduce interest income for retirees and encourage businesses to hold off on borrowing money and wait for rates to get even lower.

    “The whole history of the 21st century is rate cuts don’t stimulate growth,” he told CNBC on Friday. “They didn’t any in any way after the Great Financial Crisis. So don’t look to the Fed to bail out the economy.”

    On top of that, lower cuts could also raise fears that the reason the Fed is cutting because it sees a recession on the horizon, Kelly added.

    Combined with existing uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown, recession fears could act as another drag on the economy, he explained, noting that “the biggest tax the government levies is an uncertainty tax.”

    “There is a level of uncertainty here which is just causing people to freeze, and that’s really what you see in the hiring numbers,” Kelly said. “That’s the problem. Businesses aren’t laying off thousands and thousands. They’re just waiting to see, and the three most deadly words in economics are ‘wait and see.’ But when everybody decides to wait and see, what you see is not good.”

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    Jason Ma

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  • The Trump administration flubbed a detail on its Japan trade deal so it apologized and agreed to refund overcharged tariffs

    Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s signing of an order to implement lower tariffs on automobiles and other Japanese imports as a step that addressed uncertainty for key industries.

    The reduction to 15% from the previous 25% was agreed between the two sides on July 22.

    “Tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States was the top priority for the government and we have put all our effort into achieving an agreement in a best possible way as soon as possible,” Ishiba said Friday. “The way it was achieved … is just excellent.”

    The step on tariffs comes as the Japanese prime minister faces pressure from right-wing rivals within his party to resign over its July election loss.

    In Washington, Japan’s top tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and his U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also signed a joint statement, confirming a $550 billion Japanese investment in U.S. projects.

    Akazawa said Trump’s order brings down tariffs on automobiles and auto parts to 15% and that there will be no stacking on the existing rate, and so-called reciprocal tariffs on most other goods are also set at the same rate without stacking. He said aircraft and aircraft parts will be excluded from reciprocal tariffs.

    The two allies agreed on the deal in July but Japanese officials discovered days later the preliminary deal had added 15% on existing rates and objected. Washington acknowledged the mistake and agreed to fix and to refund any excess import duties paid.

    Akazawa said he expected the order to take effect within two weeks.

    Ishiba said Akazawa carried the prime minister’s letter to Trump, stating his wish to build “a golden era of Japan-U.S. relations” together, and inviting the president to visit Japan.

    He welcomed the deal as a result of his consistent push for investment instead of tariffs and stressed that “it is important to implement the agreement faithfully and promptly.”

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    Mari Yamaguchi, The Associated Press

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  • Tariff instability and a break with China is hitting American companies hard, and homegrown manufacturer John Deere is no exception

    John Deere is the kind of homegrown, domestic manufacturer President Donald Trump claims to support, yet his tariffs and hostility toward China are threatening its bottom line.

    The Moline, Ill.–based tractor and agriculture machinery manufacturer boasted a record profit just two years ago, but since then its luck has turned. That’s partly because of instability related to tariffs and an economic fight with China. Last month, the company said it would lay off 238 production employees in Illinois and Iowa, citing “decreased demand and lower order volumes.”

    In Q3, the company’s net profit fell by a quarter compared with the same time last year, and its worldwide net sales and revenues fell by 9% to $3.9 billion, down from $5.8 billion last year. The company also lowered its guidance for its annual net profit through the end of the year. 

    On the company’s most recent earnings call, investor relations director Josh Beale said there were “pockets of optimism” across John Deere’s business, but added customers may be feeling the sting of tariffs and instability.

    “Given challenging industry fundamentals and evolving global trade environment and ever-changing interest rate expectations, our customers are operating in increasingly dynamic markets, which naturally drives caution as they consider capital purchases,” Beale said.

    Agriculture is an industry in constant flux. Elevated crop prices mean farmers can consider buying new tractors and equipment, but in challenging times they may buy used equipment or hold off on a big purchase. New tractors can cost tens of thousands of dollars depending on their capabilities, and many farmers rely on credit for these purchases. Prices are low for the two main American crops: corn and soybeans. Corn is selling for 50% less than its price in 2022, while prices for soybeans are down 40%, the New York Times reported

    John Deere’s customers, apart from the confusion of tariffs, are also facing headwinds from an economic battle with China. In response to Trump’s tariff escalations, the world’s second-biggest economy retaliated with tariffs on U.S. soybeans; last year, China imported $13 billion worth—or about equal to the market cap of John Deere competitor Kubota. Soybean imports to China are down by 51% this year, and the country hasn’t made any advanced soybean purchases for the upcoming harvest, the NYT reported.

    If John Deere customers make fewer equipment purchases, the cutback will hit the company’s domestic manufacturing, which makes up 80% of its U.S. sales and a quarter of its international sales.

    John Deere did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

    Still, there may be a silver lining to Trump’s policies for John Deere. The company could benefit from bonus depreciation changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill, passed in July, which gives farmers a tax break on equipment purchases.

    Because of its robust domestic manufacturing, the company may also be more immune to tariffs on foreign imports than competitors Kubota, Fendt, and Mahindra, which manufacture more of their products internationally.

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    Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez

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  • The housing market is no longer a wealth-building engine as home prices continue to slump

    High home prices and mortgage rates have created unaffordable conditions for many Americans, but the housing market’s ability to create more wealth has sputtered.

    That’s because even as home prices continue to hover around record levels, they are also edging lower and lagging behind the rate of inflation, which has heated up amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

    “For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation,” said Nicholas Godec, head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement on Tuesday. The last time that happened was mid-2023.

    The latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price data showed that the 20-city index fell 0.3% in June from the prior month, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

    On an annual basis, the 20-city composite was up 2.1%, down from a 2.8% increase in the previous month, and the national index saw a 1.9% yearly gain, down from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose 2.7% in June from a year ago.

    “This reversal is historically significant: During the pandemic surge, home values were climbing at double-digit annual rates that far exceeded inflation, building substantial real wealth for homeowners,” Godec added. “Now, American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”

    Weak prices suggest underlying housing demand remains muted, he said, despite the spring and summer historically being the peak period for homebuying.

    In fact, this year’s selling season has been a bust. While sales of existing homes have ticked up recently, they are still subdued and prices are flat. In addition, sales of new homes are slumping with prices down.

    Conditions have been so dire that Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi sounded the alarm on the housing market even louder last month.

    In Godec’s view, the recent shift in the housing market could represent a new normal—but one that also has a positive angle.

    “Looking ahead, this housing cycle’s maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years,” he said.

    That’s as pandemic-era hot spots in the Sun Belt have cooled off with demand increasingly tilting toward established industrial centers that enjoy sustainable fundamentals like employment growth, greater affordability, and favorable demographics.

    “While this represents a loss of the extraordinary gains homeowners enjoyed from 2020-2022, it may signal a healthier long-term trajectory where housing appreciation aligns more closely with broader economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess,” Godec added.

    Meanwhile, analysts at EY-Parthenon sounded gloomier about the housing market in a report that also came out on Tuesday, predicting that home prices will turn negative on an annual basis by year-end due to low demand and rising inventories.

    Home listings are up 25% from a year ago, and inventories have risen for 21 consecutive months. Homebuilders are also cautious given that demand is under pressure and construction costs are still elevated.

    “Looking forward, the housing market is expected to stay stagnant, as slowing income growth and persistently high borrowing costs continue to limit demand,” the EY report said. “While proposed changes to the regulatory environment can help improve builder sentiment, elevated construction costs due to higher tariffs along with ample inventories will continue to constrain construction activity.”

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  • Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are struck down by federal appeals court, putting trade deals and huge revenue windfall at risk

    President Donald Trump’s trade war suffered a severe blow late Friday, when a federal appeals court stuck down most of his so-called reciprocal tariffs against global trading partners.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade, which found that the tariffs’ legal basis under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) wasn’t valid, saying that the administration’s argument for the tariffs didn’t constitute an emergency.

    “Both the Trafficking Tariffs and the Reciprocal Tariffs are unbounded in scope, amount, and duration,” the majority wrote. “These tariffs apply to nearly all articles imported into the United States (and, in the case of the Reciprocal Tariffs, apply to almost all countries), impose high rates which are ever-changing and exceed those set out in the [U.S. tariff system], and are not limited in duration.”

    The 7-4 ruling won’t take effect until Oct. 14, as the court sought to give the Trump administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court. The decision also doesn’t cover sectoral tariffs, such as those on aluminum and steel, that were imposed under a separate legal basis.

    The judges also sent the case back to the trade court, which must decide if the ruling applies to anyone affected by the global tariffs or just the plaintiffs who filed the case. They include a collection of Democratic-led states and a group of small businesses.

    “ALL TARIFFS ARE STILL IN EFFECT!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “Today a Highly Partisan Appeals Court incorrectly said that our Tariffs should be removed, but they know the United States of America will win in the end.”

    In fact, the latest ruling marks the administration’s third defeat in court. In addition to the Court of International Trade, U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras had also found that IEEPA doesn’t give Trump the power to impose most of his tariffs.

    Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—which shocked global markets on April 2 and triggered a massive selloff—helped leverage a series of trade deals. That includes an agreement with the European Union, which pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products, with “vast amounts” of American weapons in the mix. Similarly, the U.S.-Japan trade deal entails $550 billion in investments from Tokyo.

    Meanwhile, the reciprocal and sectoral tariffs are expected to generate $300 billion-$400 billion a year, a huge revenue windfall that was seen propping up the fiscal outlook.

    Last week, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that tariffs would shave trillions of dollars off the federal budget deficit. Meanwhile, S&P Global reaffirmed its AA+ credit rating and stable outlook on U.S. debt last week owing in part to “robust tariff income,” which should help offset the impact of tax cuts and spending in the federal budget. 

    But if the decision remains in place and applies to everyone affected, importers that paid the IEEPA tariffs could demand reimbursement from the federal government.

    Ahead of the ruling, there were hints that the court might rule against the administration. Earlier this month, Solicitor General D. John Sauer and Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate sent at letter to the court warning of an apocalyptic doomsday outcome if the tariffs were struck down.

    “In such a scenario, people would be forced from their homes, millions of jobs would be eliminated, hardworking Americans would lose their savings, and even Social Security and Medicare could be threatened,” they wrote. “In short, the economic consequences would be ruinous, instead of unprecedented success.”

    The sudden dire tone suggested to some on Wall Street that the Trump administration expected to lose in the federal appeals court.

    James Lucier at Capital Alpha Partners said in a note earlier this month that Trump doesn’t have the legal authority to replicate the IEEPA tariffs under other tariff statutes. For example, the sectoral tariffs were imposed under separate authorization based on national security.

    “In other words, the president is in a jam because if the court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, his trade deals have no legal basis,” he wrote.

    In another note on Wednesday, Lucier predicted that while the case is appealed to the Supreme Court, most countries would adhere to their trade deals with the U.S. to avoid antagonizing Trump, even if the administration has to come up with a new legal justification for its tariffs.

    But trading partners that held off on immediately retaliating against the U.S. may become more willing to strike back over time, changing negotiations over the details of any trade deals that haven’t been fully fleshed out, he added.

    “This could lead to months of uncertainty in global trade as the tariffs collected under IEEPA are refunded and the U.S. switches to a different set of levies,” Lucier warned. “Trading partners who cooperated with Trump may be less willing to cooperate the second time around.”

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  • Trump is bringing in enough revenue from tariffs to cut deficits by $4 trillion over the next decade, CBO says

    President Donald Trump’s hike in tariffs is projected to generate enough revenue to cut federal deficits by $4 trillion over the next decade, according to the latest analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The nonpartisan agency said it had updated its estimates of tariff revenues as part of the development of the short-term economic forecast covering 2025 to 2028, to be published on September 12.

    The CBO report found that increased tariffs—many targeting imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and the European Union as well as automobiles, steel, and other goods—have raised effective tariff rates by about 18 percentage points compared to last year. If these rates remain, primary deficits would shrink by $3.3 trillion and interest payments would fall by another $700 billion, bringing the total deficit reduction to $4 trillion over 10 years.

    Impact of tariffs on deficit

    Higher tariff revenues mean less need for federal borrowing, resulting in significant savings on national debt interest payments. This marks a substantial revision from the CBO’s June estimates following recent hikes in tariff rates and broader coverage across key imports, when the agency projected a $2.5 trillion decrease in primary deficits and $500 billion reduction in interest outlays in a report that examined the effects of the tariffs implemented between January 6 and May 13, 2025. The CBO said it used the same methods to generate the projections, mainly based on data from the Census Bureau, Customs and Border Protection, and the Treasury.

    The study notes that tariff revenue could partially offset deficits caused by new tax cuts and spending bills, such as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which is expected to raise deficits by $3.4 trillion, also according to the CBO. However, legal challenges and evolving trade negotiations may impact future tariff-related revenues, the CBO cautioned.

    Wider economic context

    The federal debt currently stands at about $37 trillion, and analysts remain concerned about upward pressures on interest rates and borrowing costs due to rising debt levels. Lawmakers are also facing a government funding deadline at the end of September, which places added scrutiny on deficit management in upcoming fiscal debates.

    Separately, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan budget watchdog that sits outside the government, has calculated that Trump’s tariff regime, if kept permanent, could reduce the deficit by up to $2.8 trillion in the next decade. The CRFB called the revenue being generated by the tariffs both “meaningful” and “significant.”

    It’s an open question whether the tariffs will offset the impact of OBBBA, from a deficit standpoint. The CRFB has gamed out several scenarios—including the bulk of the tariffs being ruled illegal and thrown out by an appeals court—and warned that the nation’s finances have “deteriorated” since January. In June, the CRFB also warned that the tariffs wouldn’t cover the costs of OBBBA, however the CBO’s significant upgrade of deficit reduction calls that calculation into question. Still, there is the question of who “eats” the tariffs, to paraphrase Trump’s famous instructions to Walmart about its margins. As many economists have noted, the tariffs essentially function as a sales tax on American consumers, so the deficit reduction is coming from, more or less, you and me.

    While Trump and supporters frame tariffs as a key tool for deficit reduction without raising taxes on U.S. households, critics caution about broader economic impacts, including higher consumer prices and trade tensions. The CBO indicates its projections assume ongoing tariff regimes, noting that changes in trade policy or international negotiations could alter the fiscal outlook.

    For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

    Nick Lichtenberg

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  • Tariffs will take a $100 million bite out of Estee Lauder’s bottom line, company says

    The S&P 500 dropped 1% and was on track for its worst day since the first of the month. It’s also heading for a fourth straight loss after setting an all-time high last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 115 points, or 0.3%, as of 10:50 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.8% lower.

    Nvidia, whose chips are powering much of the world’s move into AI, dropped 3.7% and was on track to be the heaviest weight on Wall Street for a second straight day following its 3.5% fall on Tuesday.

    Palantir Technologies, another AI darling, sank 9.3% to add to its 9.4% loss from the day before.

    One possible contributor to the swoon was a study from MIT’s Nanda Initiative that warned most corporations are not yet seeing any measurable return from their generative AI investments, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management.

    But such companies have also been facing criticism for a while that their stock prices simply shot too high, too fast amid the furor around AI and became too expensive. Nvidia, whose profit report scheduled for next week is one of Wall Street’s next major events, had soared 35.5% for the year so far before Tuesday. Palantir had surged even more, more than doubling.

    The tech stocks still have supporters, though, who say AI will bring the next generational revolution in business.

    Mixed profit reports from big U.S. retailers helped keep the rest of the market in check.

    TJX, the company behind the TJ Maxx and Marshalls stores, climbed 4.4% after beating analysts’ forecasts for profit and revenue. It also raised its forecast for profit over its full fiscal year, while CEO Ernie Herrman said TJX is seeing “strong demand at each of our U.S. and international businesses” and that its current quarter is off to a strong start.

    Lowe’s added 0.9% after the home-improvement retailer delivered a profit for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ expectations. It also said it agreed to buy Foundation Building Materials, a distributor of drywall, ceiling systems and other interior building products, for about $8.8 billion.

    Target, meanwhile, tumbled 7.3% even though it edged past analysts’ expectations for profit in the spring. The struggling retailer said that CEO Brian Cornell plans to step down Feb. 1 and that an insider, 20-year veteran Michael Fiddelke, will replace him. He helped reenergize the company, but it has struggled to turn around weak sales in a more competitive post-COVID retail landscape.

    Estee Lauder dropped 5.8% after offering a forecast for profit this upcoming fiscal year that fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. The beauty company said it expects tariffs to shave roughly $100 million off its upcoming earnings.

    La-Z-Boy sank 13.4% after the furniture maker’s profit and revenue for the spring came up shy of analysts’ expectations. CEO Melinda Whittington said it’s contending with “soft industry demand” and that it’s looking at potential alternatives “to address financial pressure from non-core’ parts” of its business.

    The week’s biggest news for Wall Street is likely arriving on Friday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give a highly anticipated speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The setting has been home to big policy announcements from the Fed in the past, and the hope on Wall Street is that Powell will hint that an interest rate cut is coming soon.

    The Fed has kept its main interest rate steady this year, primarily because of the fear of the possibility that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could push inflation higher. But a surprisingly weak report on job growth across the country may be superseding that.

    Treasury yields have come down sharply on expectations for coming cuts to interest rates, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.28% from 4.30% late Tuesday.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia.

    London’s FTSE 100 rose 1.1% despite a report that said inflation in the U.K. rose more than expected through July, in part due to soaring airfares and food prices.

    Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.5% after Japan reported that its exports fell slightly more than expected in July, pressured by higher tariffs on goods shipped to the U.S. Imports also fell from a year ago.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.2%. Shares that trade there of Chinese toy company Pop Mart International Group soared 12.5% after its CEO said its annual revenue could top $4 billion this year and announced the release of a mini version of its popular Labubu dolls.

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    Stan Choe, The Associated Press

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  • Bessent says China tariff status quo ‘working pretty well’

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the U.S. is satisfied with the current tariff set up with China, a signal the Trump administration is looking to maintain calm with its economic rival before a trade truce expires in November.

    When asked in a Fox News interview when progress in negotiations would be seen and if the U.S. needed a trade agreement because of how tariffs were going, Bessent said that “we’re very happy” with the situation with China. “I think right now the status quo is working pretty well,” he said. 

    “China is the biggest revenue line in the tariff income—so if it’s not broke, don’t fix it,” he said in the interview on Tuesday. “We have had very good talks with China. I imagine we’ll be seeing them again before November.”

    Bessent’s remarks indicate that an easing of tensions between the two sides remains in place, potentially creating an opening for President Donald Trump to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

    The Trump administration has generally dialed down its confrontational tone with Beijing recently to get a summit with Xi and a trade deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said a meeting between the two leaders is likely, though no date has been set.

    Last week, Trump extended a pause on higher tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November, a move that stabilized trade ties between the world’s two largest economies.

    That was possible because the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tit-for-tat tariff hikes and ease export restrictions on rare earth magnets and certain technologies. S&P Global Ratings has said revenues from Trump’s tariffs would help soften the blow to the U.S.’s fiscal health from the president’s tax cuts, enabling it to maintain its current credit grade.

    Still, the trade dispute with China is causing some pain for the U.S. Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, said in a letter to Trump dated Tuesday that American soybean farmers are near a “trade and financial precipice” and cannot survive a prolonged dispute. 

    Trump said last week that he hoped China would massively step up its purchases of American soybeans. China hasn’t bought a single cargo of soybeans from the next harvest, which starts in September.

    And in a move that’s likely to irk Beijing, the Trump administration is set to step up scrutiny of imports of steel, copper, lithium and other materials from the world’s No. 2 economy to enforce a U.S. ban on goods allegedly made with forced labor in the country’s Xinjiang region. 

    The plan dovetails with Trump’s broader trade goals, given he wants to lower the U.S. trade deficit with China and put pressure on Beijing to curb shipments of fentanyl and precursor chemicals

    Earlier this month Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, saying the hike was punishment for India’s purchases of discounted oil from Russia, which he argues helps fund President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.

    There’s been concern that the U.S. may also target other nations—China is the largest overall buyer of Moscow’s crude—but so far India has been the only major economy to be hit with such “secondary tariffs.”

    Bessent defended the administration’s lack of secondary tariffs on China in an interview with CNBC, saying India only ramped up its purchases after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

    Bloomberg

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  • Wayfair CFO says sellers on the company’s $12 billion marketplace are trying to ‘insulate’ customers from tariffs

    The home goods category has seen its share of twists and turns over the past five years: a pandemic-era boom and then a slump when consumers pivoted toward travel and experiences rather than physical items. Now, it’s facing headwinds in the form of tariffs and an uncertain economy, and generative AI could be changing how people shop.

    Kate Gulliver, CFO and chief administrative officer at Wayfair, spoke with CFO Brew about her career, and about her company’s plan to roll with the punches.

    From startup to category leader: In some ways, Gulliver has grown along with Wayfair. After working in private equity, she joined the company as head of investor relations in 2014, and helped to run its IPO. At that time, it had about $1 billion in sales and 2,000 employees, Gulliver said. She describes it as “a super high-growth but relatively immature company from a systems and process perspective.” Today, Wayfair employs around 12,000 people and brought in $12 billion in revenue from June 2024 through June 2025.

    From investor relations, Gulliver became global head of talent, and was named CFO and CAO in 2022. Her career at Wayfair has evolved in an organic fashion.

    “I largely let my career be guided by the opportunity most immediately in front of me,” she said. “I’ve never tried to guide toward ‘10 years from now, here’s where that role is getting me.’ It’s been more ‘Is this the next right move?’”

    As a combined CFO and chief administrative officer, Gulliver has plenty on her plate: HR, finance, real estate, legal and compliance, corporate affairs, and communications all report to her. She enjoys the breadth of the dual role, which she says gives her insight into the “backbone” of the company. “Intellectually,” the many departments she oversees “can feel quite different day to day, which is fun,” she said.

    A turbulent five years for retail: As a seller of discretionary goods, Wayfair has been on a rocky ride over the past five years. It was able to capitalize on the home goods boom of the pandemic, when shoppers stuck in lockdown were buying items for their spaces. But as restrictions lifted and consumers pivoted toward spending on experiences, it saw net losses for three consecutive years. Wayfair had to restructure and underwent several rounds of layoffs, cutting around 13% of its workforce, or 1,650 jobs, in 2024.

    Now, though, the category is “starting to stabilize,” Gulliver said. Wayfair had a bumper second quarter this year, with revenues rising 5% year over year.

    “We’re feeling good about the momentum currently,” she said.

    Wayfair isn’t seeing consumer softness yet due to tariffs and economic uncertainty, Gulliver said, though it’s seeing more strength in its high-end lines, such as Perigold, AllModern, and Joss & Main, than in its “core mass” lines. (“There’s no question the higher-end market is stronger than mass,” CEO Niraj Shah said during a recent earnings call.) The company is keeping its eye on the macroeconomic picture, though. It’s doing a lot of forecasting, incorporating both its internal data and third-party inputs such as credit card data and housing market trends, Gulliver said.

    So far tariffs haven’t had that much of an impact, Gulliver said. That’s partly because Wayfair is a marketplace. Sellers post many unbranded items that look similar to one another, so they’re largely competing on price, she said. Lower prices also allow for better placement on Wayfair’s search results, boosting sales. Sellers, Gulliver said, are finding ways to absorb or offset tariffs at different points along the supply chain, which is “helping to insulate consumers” from higher prices. “Consumers are still seeing like-for-like pricing,” she said.

    AI, how about midcentury modern? Wayfair is also anticipating changes generative AI might make to shopping habits. It’s partnering with some major AI providers on developing agentic shopping tools, Gulliver said. And it’s added GenAI features to its website and app that show customers how furniture might look in different spaces within a home, alongside recommendations for similar Wayfair products. “It’s a fun way to capitalize on how consumers might be changing how they shop,” Gulliver said.

    At the same time, the retailer’s made a surprisingly analog move: opening brick-and-mortar stores. Its Chicago store has resulted in a “halo” effect, boosting sales and brand recognition in the Chicago area, Shah said on an earnings call. Three more physical stores are planned in the coming years.

    As a Wayfair shopper and home design fan herself (“That is the thing I read about in my spare time”), Gulliver understands what consumers are looking for. But even her broad remit, she acknowledges, only goes so far. “I’m always going to the brand team or the merchant team” and asking, ‘Have we thought about getting this product?’,” she said. “And they’re like, ‘Kate, stay in your lane.’”

    This report was originally published by CFO Brew.

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    Courtney Vien, CFO Brew

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  • After Tesla snub, Mexico vows production of its own compact EVs

    After Tesla snub, Mexico vows production of its own compact EVs

    Snubbed by Tesla, Mexico’s new president pledged Friday to create a Mexican-made small, affordable electric car to compete with vehicles imported from China.

    President Claudia Sheinbaum said Teslas were too “onerous,” or expensive, for the Mexican market anyway. Tesla’s cheapest car, the Model 3, costs about $30,000.

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in July the company had “paused” plans for a plant in Mexico, citing Donald Trump’s remarks about possible auto tariffs.

    Sheinbaum said her government will try to bring together Mexican companies and researchers to produce a “compact, cheap electric car.”

    “The idea is to use Mexican companies and Mexican researchers’ ingenuity, to bring them together to assemble this electric car,” Sheinbaum said. “The idea is to create production chains so that this entire electric car is made in our country.”

    She cited electric vehicles from China and India — some of which are already flooding into Mexico — as examples. Small electric motorbikes from China have flooded Mexican streets in recent months, but Sheinbaum said motorbikes, which in Mexico are often ridden by three people at a time, were too dangerous.

    The plan faces a number of problems, including the fact that Mexico doesn’t produce any lithium, the key ingredient for batteries, nor any mass quantity of batteries. High domestic electricity rates could also be a roadblock.

    There are some clay-encased lithium deposits in northern Mexico, which the government nationalized under the last administration. However, Sheinbaum said the techniques for mining that lithium weren’t currently commercially viable, and that production from those sources was “a little bit more long term.”

    And anybody seeking to charge a battery at home could face punishingly high bills. Mexico subsidizes low-level domestic power consumption at about 10 cents per kilowatt hour, a bit lower than the U.S. average.

    But a vastly higher rate kicks in for any electricity consumption above the minimal level, which is basically just enough to power a dozen light bulbs, a washing machine and a refrigerator.

    Moreover, Mexico’s decrepit power lines and transmission facilities are barely able to keep up with current demand, let alone widespread at-home charging of vehicle batteries.

    Sheinbaum did not say what sales price Mexico was aiming at for its ultra-small electrical car, but that could be another problem.

    Some Mexican discount stores are offering a tiny mail-order Chinese electric car for about $1,000. It would be very hard for Mexican manufacturers to compete with that motorcycle-level price.

    Mexico was stung after Tesla postponed plans to build a Gigafactory in the northern border state of Nuevo Leon earlier this year. The promise of the plant had sparked stiff competition among Mexican governors to get the facility.

    Musk said in July “I think we need to see just where things stand after the election. Trump has said that he will put heavy tariffs on vehicles produced in Mexico. So it doesn’t make sense to invest a lot in Mexico if that is going to be the case.”

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  • Chinese suppliers shrug off U.S. tariff threats as customers flock to their cheap goods

    Chinese suppliers shrug off U.S. tariff threats as customers flock to their cheap goods

    China can withstand any new tariffs the world throws at it—even the punitive ones Donald Trump is planning if he wins a second presidential term—because its prices are simply too competitive to resist.

    That’s the predominant view at this month’s Canton Fair. Many buyers and sellers at China’s biggest trade event, held in the southern city of Guangzhou, shrugged off the risk of an escalating trade war.

    “My customers told me even a 50% tariff won’t come close to driving them away,” said Jack Jin, who sells cargo-control tools and truck parts from southeast China. He says about half his orders come from Americans—who can sell his products for four times what they pay him.

    Tension between China and its trading partners is escalating in a U.S. election year, amid allegations the world’s top manufacturer is dumping goods and unfairly subsidizing industries. The list of targeted products is getting longer, including metals and ships as well as electric vehicles.

    Trump says he might impose an across-the-board China tariff of more than 60%. President Joe Biden—his opponent in November’s election—last week pledged to triple charges on Chinese steel, an area where emerging economies have voiced concerns too. The EU launched a probe into Chinese EV subsidies that could lead to new tariffs within months, and is scrutinizing the solar and rail industries.

    But traders at the Canton Fair say the world will need Chinese goods no matter what. They’re coming up with workarounds for tariffs. And even buyers who are looking into supply-chain alternatives said they still expect China to remain their top source, because other countries lag in quality and cost.

    ‘Skin the Cat’

    Samuel Jackson, who was at the fair as a purchaser for a Bosnian furniture company, said he can get products of “very, very similar” standard at half the price that European makers charge. Tariffs might have some impact, he said, “but China is too big a country. They have other countries to sell to.”

    For Alex Student, an auto accessories importer from California, it’s U.S. consumers who’ve borne the brunt of tariffs on China-made goods. His retailers at home refused to pay higher prices when Trump slapped on the taxes, and instead asked him to get the producers to supply a slightly cheaper version. 

    “At the end of the day, who paid? The consumer,” he said. “You either gave something up in terms of the quality of the product, or you gave up more money for the same product.” 

    Student described one way he found to offset the tariffs, by switching to so-called Free On Board pricing. That meant logistics and warehousing costs were left to his U.S. customers—and the sale price, on which tariffs are based, came down. There’s “a lot of different ways to skin the cat,” he said.

    Chinese products are cheap even for buyers from less developed countries. Daniel Lulandala, owner of a machinery trading company in Tanzania, was on his first trip to China and excited about being able to negotiate directly with local manufacturers.

    He found the prices on offer at the Canton Fair so low that it’s led him to expand his business ambition, and he’s now thinking of opening a factory back home to make building blocks, using a Chinese machine that costs about $8,000. He’s confident he could earn that back within just three months.

    “If I was here a few years earlier, I could be somewhere higher now, business-wise,” Lulandala said. 

    Out of 125,000 foreign buyers who’d attended the fair through April 19, only 18% were from the U.S. and Europe, according to the organizers. That’s not just down to trade tensions, but also because ties with those economies are well established and the buyers tend to be larger if fewer in number. Two-thirds of attendees come from the mostly emerging nations that are part of Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure plan, up from about half a decade ago.

    ‘Contingency Plans’

    Of course, importers who made the trek to Guangzhou are likely among the China optimists—and some producers there did express trade-war concerns.

    A saleswoman for a Shanghai producer of plastic strapping, who asked not to be identified discussing her concerns about the economy, said she was worried by the prospect of another Trump presidency. She said her company has been scraping by in the past few years, under pressure to keep developing more products even though profits were falling, and described business conditions as akin to a rat race.

    If China’s falling production costs impress foreign buyers, they’re also a symptom of weak demand at home, where households are reluctant to spend after a prolonged real estate slump that’s left the country at risk of deflation. A pivot to exports may help meet this year’s growth target of around 5%, but it also undercuts the longer-term plan for domestic consumers to play a bigger part in driving the economy.

    Jin, the truck-part seller, acknowledged being “a little” worried about Trump, who he sees as more unpredictable than Biden. He’s also aware of growing competition from other emerging nations. His company stopped making a metal ring used on trucks because Indian producers, unburdened by tariffs, were able to offer lower prices.

    Student said he’s started looking for what he calls “contingency plans.” His firm imported some goods from Vietnam last year, the first time it’s bought from anywhere except China since the 2000s, and he’s looked at Thailand and Indonesia for certain products.

    But all those countries have a long way to go before they’re competitive with China, he said. So even in a “worst-case scenario” China will still likely get about 75% of his firm’s business. “I can’t foresee it being less.”

    Bloomberg

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