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Tag: Sweden

  • U.S. still expects Sweden’s NATO ascension by July despite Turkey tensions, U.S. ambassador says

    U.S. still expects Sweden’s NATO ascension by July despite Turkey tensions, U.S. ambassador says

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    U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye Jeffry Flake speaking in Washington D.C., United States on May 3, 2023.

    Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

    The U.S. is still holding out hope that Sweden will join NATO by July in spite of Turkey’s apprehensions, Ambassador to Ankara Jeffry Flake said.

    “We hope Sweden can become a member of NATO soon,” Flake told CNBC’s Dan Murphy Friday, adding that Sweden has taken a number of measures to address Turkey’s security concerns.

    “We fully expect and hope that by the time Vilnius comes … that Sweden will be a member.”

    Earlier this week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had on Wednesday rebuffed mounting international pressure to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership bid before the defense alliance convenes for the 2023 Vilnius summit of July 11-12.

    Officials from Sweden, Turkey, Finland and NATO had convened in Ankara with hopes of easing Turkey’s objections.

    “Sweden has expectations. It doesn’t mean that we will comply with them,” Erdogan said, according to Turkish state-run outlet Anadolu. Turkey, Finland and Sweden had last year inked an agreement to on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid, committing to address Turkey’s security demands.

    Ankara’s objections are complex, but center mainly on Sweden’s support for Kurdish groups that Turkey considers to be terrorists, and on weapons embargoes that both Sweden and Finland, along with other EU countries, put on Turkey for targeting Kurdish militias in Syria.

    Erdogan also wants Sweden to crack down on protests against his government. For months, Sweden’s capital has seen protests built up against Turkey, which at the start of the year led to the heavily criticised burning of the holy Muslim book Quran by some demonstrators.

    “In order for us to comply with these expectations, first of all, Sweden must do its part,” Erdogan said.

    Prior to the recent elections in May, Turkey’s presidential spokesperson in March said that Ankara has “left the door open” to Stockholm’s bid to be a part of the military alliance “if it shows will and determination.”

    On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden met with NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, emphasizing their “shared desire to welcome Sweden to the Alliance as soon as possible,” a White House statement said.

    “Obviously, our relationship is grounded in NATO. I think it will continue to be so,” Flake said of U.S.-Turkey relations, underscoring both parties’ security and commercial partnership.

    “On the commercial side, we[‘ve] got a healthy amount of balance trade, about 33 billion as of last year. That’s increasing every year,” he said.

    The Turkish leader has previously criticized Flake for paying a visit to Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the presidential candidate of the opposition alliance that Erdogan beat in recent elections. Flake on Friday characterized his relationship with Erdogan as being “in a good place.”

    He added, “Sometimes it’s a challenging relationship. That is true, but we have a good security and commercial and people relationship with Turkey.”

    —CNBC’s Natasha Turak contributed to this article.

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  • Beyoncé single-handedly raised a country’s inflation

    Beyoncé single-handedly raised a country’s inflation

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    When the Beyhive swarmed Sweden, they didn’t just bring the buzz, they also brought inflation. 

    That’s because fans’ pilgrimage to Stockholm for Beyoncé’s Renaissance World Tour sent hotel prices in the country’s capital skyrocketing, Danske Bank Chief Economist Michael Grahn told the Financial Times.

    The “Beyoncé blip,” as he calls it, had a “very rare” effect on Swedish inflation, bumping it up 0.2% in May. Beyoncé played two shows in Sweden on May 10 and 11.

    “Beyoncé is responsible for the extra upside surprise this month,” Grahn told the Financial Times. “It’s quite astonishing for a single event. We haven’t seen this before.” 

    Sweden’s headline inflation was 9.7% in May, down from 10.5% the month prior, Swedish government data shows. But while consumer prices in Sweden are moderating, prices for a large swath of goods and services, including hotels and restaurants, rose. Hotel and restaurant prices increased 3.3% from April to May, according to Statistics Sweden, an organization that publishes the country’s inflation reports.

    Highest-grossing tour contender

    The Renaissance World Tour is on track to clinch the title of highest-grossing tour of all time. The series of stadium performances, named after Beyoncé’s new album, is the megastar’s first time performing in seven years, Billboard reported. As a result, fans are clamoring to get their hands on tickets. 

    During the first round of ticket sales for Beyoncé’s concerts, fan demand exceeded the number of available tickets by more than 800%, Ticketmaster said in a statement in February.  

    While Beyoncé’s modest “blip” effect on an entire country’s inflation is far from usual, it isn’t the first time a singer’s fanbase has pushed up consumer prices. 

    The cost of a one-night stay at some hotels in Nashville nearly quadrupled during Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour performances in the city in May, the Tennessean reported. Her fans also smashed records for hotel bookings in Chicago.

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  • Biden to discuss Ukraine war this week with Denmark and U.K. leaders

    Biden to discuss Ukraine war this week with Denmark and U.K. leaders

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    President Biden is welcoming Denmark and Britain’s prime ministers this week to Washington for talks that will focus heavily on what lays ahead in the war in Ukraine — including the recently launched effort to train, and eventually equip, Ukraine with American-made F-16s fighter jets.

    Britain and Denmark are playing a key role in the joint international plan that Mr. Biden recently endorsed after months of resisting calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for U.S. aircraft.

    The president’s separate meetings with the leaders of two key NATO allies — he’ll see Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen on Monday and the U.K.’s Rishi Sunak on Thursday — come at a critical period in the 15-month war as Ukraine readies to launch a counteroffensive. It’s also a moment when the U.S. and Europe are looking to demonstrate to Moscow that the Western alliance remains strong and focused on cementing a longer-term commitment to Ukraine, with no end to the conflict in sight.

    “One of the things we’ll be looking for their perspectives on and the President will be interested in sharing his perspectives on is the long term security needs of Ukraine,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. “And that’s really where the F-16s kind of come into this discussion.”

    Denmark has purchased dozens of American-made F-16s since the 1970s and has indicated it is open to the possibility of providing Ukraine with some. Britain strongly advocated for a coalition to supply Ukraine with fighter planes, and says it will support Ukraine getting the F-16s it wants. But the U.K. does not have any F-16s, and has ruled out sending Royal Air Force Typhoon jets.

    Instead, Britain says it will give Ukrainian pilots basic training on Western-standard jets starting in early summer to prepare them to fly F-16s. The Ukrainian pilots will then go on to other countries for the next stages of training.

    The F-16 agreement is among several recent high-profile efforts by the U.S. and Europe focused on bolstering Western resolve as the war grinds on. Moscow officials claimed that Ukrainian forces were making a major effort to punch through Russian defensive lines in southeast Ukraine for a second day Monday. Kyiv authorities did not confirm the attacks and suggested the claim was a Russian misinformation ruse.

    Frederiksen and Sunak were among 45 European leaders who traveled to Moldova last week for the first summit of the European Political Community, where they underscored support for Eastern Europe’s ambitions to draw closer to the West and keep Moscow at bay.

    Mr. Biden is also expected to discuss with the two leaders preparations for next month’s NATO summit in Lithuania, which comes amid growing pressure on the alliance from Zelenskyy on NATO to offer Ukraine concrete security guarantees and a defined path for Kyiv to eventually win membership into the group.

    The 31-member alliance is also looking at boosting Ukraine’s non-member status in NATO and preparing a framework for security commitments that it can offer once the war with Russia is over.

    Max Bergmann, a former senior State Department official during the Obama administration, said Mr. Biden and his European counterparts’ task is to stay on the same page for what comes after Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive.

    “Throughout this conflict, we have not only underestimated the Ukrainians but we have also underestimated the Europeans,” said Bergmann, who is now director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “They’re not wavering but they will also need to keep finding new funds to plow into military equipment to support the Ukrainians. There’s a question on both sides of the Atlantic: How much will it actually take to sustain Ukraine?”

    Mr. Biden is also expected to check in with Frederiksen and Rishi on his effort to press fellow NATO member Turkey to back off blocking Sweden from joining the military alliance.

    Sweden and Finland, both historically unaligned militarily, jointly sought NATO membership after being rattled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey initially blocked both countries from joining the alliance before agreeing to membership for Finland while continuing to object to Sweden.

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has objected to Sweden’s perceived support of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, the leftist extremist group DHKP-C, and followers of the U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, who Ankara claims was behind a failed military coup attempt in 2016.

    Erdogan won reelection last week to a third term despite his government’s struggle to deal with runaway inflation and the aftermath of an earthquake that leveled entire cities in the country. Now that his reelection battle is behind him, White House officials are increasingly optimistic that the Turkish leader will withdraw his opposition to Sweden’s membership, according to a U.S. official familiar with internal deliberations. The official was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

    Mr. Biden said he raised Sweden’s NATO application and Turkey’s desire to buy 40 new F-16s from the U.S. — a move some in Congress oppose until Turkey approves NATO membership for Sweden — during a phone call last week with Erdogan.

    “He still wants to work on something on the F-16s. I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let’s get that done,” Mr. Biden told reporters shortly after the call.

    Days later, at his commencement address at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado, the president spoke with certainty about Sweden’s NATO membership hopes. “It will happen. I promise you,” heu said.

    NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken both expressed hope that Sweden will be brought into the NATO fold by the time allied leaders meet in Lithuania on July 11-12. Stoltenberg met with Erdogan on Sunday in Istanbul for talks but no breakthrough was made.

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  • Turkey’s Erdogan takes oath of office, ushering in his third presidential term

    Turkey’s Erdogan takes oath of office, ushering in his third presidential term

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    ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was sworn into his third presidential term on Saturday, reappointed an internationally respected former banker as finance minister in a sign that his new government might pursue more conventional economic policies.

    Erdogan, 69, took the oath of office a week after he won a new five-year term in a runoff presidential race that could stretch his 20-year rule in the key NATO country that straddles Europe and Asia into a quarter-century.

    Unveiling the lineup of his new Cabinet, Erdogan announced the reappointment of Mehmet Simsek – a former finance minister and deputy prime minister – to the helm of the economy. Simsek, a former London-based Merrill Lynch banker, returns to the Cabinet as treasury and finance minister after a five-year break from politics.

    The appointment comes as Turkey is grappling with a cost-of-living crisis fueled by inflation that peaked at a staggering 85% in October before easing to 44% last month. The Turkish currency has lost more than 10% of its value against the dollar since the start of the year.

    Critics blame the turmoil on Erdogan’s policy of lowering interest rates to promote growth, which runs contrary to conventional economic thinking that rates should rise to combat inflation. Simsek’s appointment is seen as an indication that Erdogan may abandon policies that many economists have branded as “unorthodox.”

    In other appointments, Erdogan chose as his foreign minister Hakan Fidan, who has headed Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency, MIT, since 2010. A former soldier who holds a doctorate in international relations, Fidan replaces Mevlut Cavusoglu, who had held the post since 2014.

    The chief of military staff, Gen. Yasar Guler, meanwhile, will take up the post of defense minister, Erdogan announced.

    Earlier, dozens of foreign dignitaries attended Erdogan’s inauguration ceremony at his vast presidential complex in Ankara. They included NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Carl Bildt, a high-profile former Swedish prime minister. Stockholm hopes to press Erdogan to lift his country’s objections to Sweden’s membership in the military alliance — which requires unanimous approval by all allies.

    Turkey accuses Sweden of being too soft on Kurdish militants and other groups that Turkey considers to be terrorists. NATO wants to bring Sweden into the alliance by the time allied leaders meet in Lithuania on July 11-12, but Turkey and Hungary have yet to endorse the bid.

    Other leaders in attendance included Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan, Pakistan’s Shahbaz Sharif and Libya’s Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.

    The republic will be celebrating its centennial in October, and so presiding over a new “Turkish century” became an important campaign slogan for Erdogan. During his inauguration ceremony, Erdogan hailed “the start of the Turkish century, a new period of glory for our country.”

    “I invite all 81 provinces to come together in fraternity. Let us leave behind the resentments of the campaign. Let us find a way to make up for hurt feelings. Let’s all work together to build the Turkish century,” he said.

    He also expressed his intention to introduce a new constitution, saying: “We will liberate our democracy from the present constitution produced by (the 1980) military coup, and strengthen it with a freedom-promoting, civilian and inclusive constitution.”

    The inauguration ceremony was preceded by a swearing-in ceremony in parliament. Supporters waited outside despite the heavy rain, covering Erdogan’s car with red carnations as he arrived. From there, a procession of cavalry in blue uniforms escorted the president’s convoy to the inauguration ceremony.

    Erdogan was sworn in amid a host of other domestic challenges, including pressure for the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees and the need to rebuild after a devastating earthquake in February that killed 50,000 and leveled entire cities in the south of the country.

    In power as prime minister and then as president since 2003, Erdogan is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader. He has solidified his rule through constitutional changes that transformed Turkey’s presidency from a largely ceremonial role to a powerful office.

    Critics say his second decade in office was marred by sharp democratic backsliding, including the erosion of institutions such as the media and the judiciary, and the jailing of opponents and critics.

    Erdogan defeated opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a runoff vote held on May 28, after he narrowly failed to secure an outright victory in a first round of voting on May 14. Kilicdaroglu had promised to put Turkey on a more democratic path and improve relations with the West. International observers deemed the elections to be free but not fair.

    ___

    Kiper reported from Bodrum, Turkey.

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  • With Erdoğan back, Sweden presses Turkey again on NATO bid 

    With Erdoğan back, Sweden presses Turkey again on NATO bid 

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    LULEÅ, Sweden — Sweden has met all of its commitments to join NATO and expects to become part of the transatlantic military alliance by July, Tobias Billström, the country’s foreign minister, told POLITICO.

    Speaking on the sidelines of the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council summit, Billström said Stockholm had assuaged all of the concerns from Turkey, an existing NATO member which has held up Sweden’s application over concerns about its support for Kurdish groups which Ankara considers to be terrorist entities. Longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured a new term as Turkish president on Sunday.

    Sweden’s tweaks included updating its domestic terrorism legislation, which will come into effect on June 1, to include lengthy prison terms for individuals convicted of participating in extremist organizations in ways that promote such groups. That is a veiled reference to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has a following in Sweden but is banned in Turkey.

    Billström said he now expected Sweden to join the alliance ahead of a NATO meeting in Vilnius on July 11.

    “We have delivered everything that we said that we were going to do,” Billström said. “There is a high expectation that we will be a member before Vilnius.”

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    Mark Scott

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  • Scouring the seas for Putin’s pipeline saboteurs

    Scouring the seas for Putin’s pipeline saboteurs

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    It’s an hour before dawn breaks over the North Sea. Aboard the KV Bergen, the officer of the watch is wide awake. 

    The 93-meter long Norwegian Navy Coast Guard vessel is on patrol, 50 miles out to sea. The sky is dark, the sea darker. But off the starboard bow, bright lights gleam through the rain and mist. Something huge and incongruous is looming out of the water, lit like a Christmas display.  

    “Troll A,” says Torgeir Standal, 49, the ship’s second in command, who is taking the watch on this bleak March morning. 

    It’s a gas platform — a big one.  

    When it was transported out to this desolate spot nearly 30 years ago, Troll A — stretching 472 meters from its seabed foundations to the tip of its drilling rig — became the tallest structure ever moved by people across the surface of the Earth. Last year, Troll, the gas field it taps into, provided 10 percent of the EU’s total supply of natural gas — heating homes, lighting streets, fueling industry. 

    “There are many platforms here,” says Standal, standing on the dark bridge of the Bergen, his face illuminated by the glow from the radar and satellite screens on his control panel. “And thousands of miles of pipeline underneath.” 

    And that’s why the Bergen has come to this spot today. 

    In September 2022, an explosion on another undersea gas pipeline nearly 600 miles away shook the world. Despite three ongoing investigations, there is still no official answer to the question of who blew up the Nord Stream pipe. But the fact that it could happen at all triggered a Europe-wide alert.

    The Norwegian Navy’s KV Bergen, seen in the background, after departing from the port of Bergen

    Against a backdrop of growing confrontation with Moscow over its brutal invasion of Ukraine and its willingness to use energy as a weapon, the vulnerability of the undersea pipes and cables that deliver gas, electricity and data to the Continent — the vital arteries of comfortable, modern European life — has been starkly exposed. 

    In response, Norway, alongside NATO allies, increased naval patrols in the North Sea — an area vital for Europe’s energy security. The presence of the Bergen, day and night, in these unforgiving waters, is part of the effort to remain vigilant. The task of the men and women on board is to keep watch on behalf of Europe — and to stop the next Nord Stream attack before it happens. 

    The officers of the watch 

    But what are they looking for? 

    In recent weeks the Bergen has tracked the movements of a Russian military frigate through the North Sea — something that it has to do “several times every year,” says Kenneth Dyb, 47, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship. 

    The Russians have a right to sail through these seas out to the Atlantic, and it is very unlikely Moscow would be so brazen as to openly attack a gas platform or a pipeline. But, says Dyb, as his ship steams west to another gas and oil field, Oseberg, “it’s important to show that we are present. That we are watching.” 

    Recent reports that Russian naval ships — with their trackers turned off — were present near the site of the Nord Stream blasts in the months running up to the incident have reinforced the importance of having extra eyes on the water itself. 

    The Oseberg oil and gas field, 130 kilometers north-west of Bergen

    Of course, the gas didn’t come for free. Norway has profited hugely from the spike in gas and oil prices that followed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The state-owned energy giant Equinor made a record $75 billion profit in 2022. Oslo is sensitive to accusations of war profiteering — and keen to show Europe that it cares about its neighbors’ energy security as much as it cares about their cash. 

    But the threat to the pipelines could also be more low-key. One of the many theories about the Nord Stream attack is that it was carried out by a small group of divers, operating from an ordinary yacht. In such a scenario, something as seemingly innocent as a ship suddenly going stationary, or following an unaccustomed course through the water, could be suspicious. The Bergen’s crew have the authority to board and inspect vessels that its crew consider a cause for concern.  

    Russia’s covert presence in these waters has been acknowledged by Norway’s intelligence services in recent weeks. A joint investigation by the public broadcasters in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland uncovered evidence of civilian vessels, such as fishing ships, being used for surveillance activities. This is something that has been “going on forever,” according to Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, but it has increased in intensity in recent years. 

    “We always look for oddities, anything that is unusual, like new ships in the area that have not been here before,” says Magne Storebø, 26, senior petty officer, as he takes the afternoon watch on the bridge later that day. 

    The sky is leaden and the horizon lost in cloud. Coffee in hand, Storebø casts his eye over the radar and satellite screens as giant windscreen wipers whip North Sea spray from the floor-to-ceiling windows. There are few ships around, all of them familiar to the crew; service vessels plying back and forth from the gas and oil platforms. 

    The Nord Stream incident and the new security situation has changed the way Storebø thinks about his work, he says. 

    He is “more aware of the consequences suspicious vessels could have,” he says. “More awake, you could say.”   

    Senior Petty Officer Magne Storebø keeps watch from the bridge

    Soft-spoken and calm beyond his years, Storebø is philosophical about the potential dangers of his work. He has been in the Navy for four years, in which time war has broken out on the European continent and the threat to his home waters has come into sharp focus. 

     “If you are going to put a rainy cloud over your head and bury yourself down, I don’t think the Navy or the coastguard is the right place to work in,” he says in conversation with two shipmates later that day. “You need to adjust and to look in a positive direction — and to be ready in case things don’t go that way.” 

    Energy war round two 

    As Europe emerges from the first winter of its energy war with Russia, its gas supplies have held up better than almost anyone expected. 

    But as the Continent braces for next winter, the risk of another Nord Stream-style attack to a key pipeline is taken seriously at the highest levels of leadership. 

    “Things look OK for gas security now,” said one senior European Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters of energy security. “But if Norway has a pipeline that blows up, we are in a different situation.” 

    EU policymakers see four key risks to gas security going into next winter, the senior official added: exceptionally cold weather; a stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery hoovering up global gas supply; Russia cutting off the remaining gas it sends to Europe; and last but not least, an “incident” affecting energy infrastructure. 

    Such an event might not only threaten supply but could potentially spark panic in the gas market, as seen in 2022, driving up prices and hitting European citizens and industries in the wallet. And nowhere is the potential for harm greater than in the North Sea. 

    Norway is now Europe’s biggest single supplier of gas. After Russian President Vladimir Putin and the energy giant Gazprom shut off supply via Nord Stream and other pipelines, Norway stepped up its own production in the North Sea, delivering well over 100 billion cubic meters to the EU and the U.K. in 2022. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Troll A herself in March this year — the first visit of a Commission president to Norway since 2011 — to personally thank the country’s president, Jonas Gahr Støre, for supplies that “helped us through the winter.” 

    “We have a huge responsibility, supplying the rest of Europe with energy,” Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram told POLITICO. “To be a stable, reliable producer of energy, of gas, is an important role for us and we take that very seriously. That is why we are also doing so much to protect this infrastructure.” 

    The vast majority of that gas is transported into northwest Europe via a complex network of seabed pipes — more than 5,000 miles of them in Norway’s jurisdiction alone. The North Sea has an average depth of just 95 meters. That’s not much deeper than the Nord Stream pipes at the location they were attacked.  

    “It actually doesn’t take a particularly sophisticated capability to attack a pipeline in relatively shallow waters,” says Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in the U.K. A small vessel, “some divers and an [explosive] charge” are all it could take, Kaushal says. 

    The navy chief 

    After the Nord Stream incident in September, suspicion instantly fell on Russia. Moscow has a record of operating in the so-called gray zone — committing hostile acts short of warfare, often covertly.  

    To date, the three investigations looking into the incident have yet to confirm that suspicion. But European governments — and their militaries — are not taking any chances. 

    In the days immediately following the explosions, NATO navy chiefs started calling each other to try to coordinate efforts to protect energy infrastructure, says Rune Andersen, the chief of Norway’s navy, speaking to POLITICO at Haakonsvern naval base, before the KV Bergen’s voyage. 

    Everyone had the same thought, he says. “If that happens in the North Sea, we will have a problem.”  

    Andersen joined the Navy as a young man in 1988, in the last days of the Cold War. Now 54, he is used to the Russian threat overshadowing Norway’s and Europe’s security. 

    “After decades of attempts to integrate or cooperate with Russia, we now have war in Europe. We see that our neighbor is brutal and willing to use military force,” he says grimly. “I worked in the Navy in the ’90s when it was enduring peace and partnership on the agenda. We are back to a situation where our job feels more meaningful — and necessary.” 

    Kenneth Dyb, the skippsjef, or commander of the ship

    However, he points out, his own forces have so far not seen any Russian movements or operations “that are different to what they were before” the Nord Stream attacks. “The job we are doing is precautionary, rather than tailored to any specific threat,” he adds. 

    Even so, those early discussions with NATO allies have now formalized into daily coordination via the Allied Maritime Command headquarters in the U.K., to ensure there are always NATO ships on hand that can act as “first responders” to potential incidents. British, German and French ships have joined their Norwegian counterparts in the monitoring and surveillance effort. 

    It is “by nature challenging” to protect every inch of pipeline, all of the time, Andersen says. 

    The role of the Bergen and ships like it, he adds, is just “one bit of the puzzle.” Simply by their presence at sea, these ships increase the chances of catching would-be saboteurs in the act, and hopefully deter them from trying in the first place.  

    The goal, in other words, is to reduce the size of the “gray zone” — or to “increase the resolution” of the navy’s picture of the activity out on the North Sea, as Andersen puts it. 

    In collaboration with the energy companies and pipeline operators, unmanned underwater vehicles — drones — using cameras and high-resolution sonar have been used, Andersen says, to “map the micro-terrain” around pipelines. These are sensitive enough to spot an explosive charge or other signs of foul play. 

    Equinor, alongside the pipeline operator Gassco, has carried out a “large inspection survey” of its undersea pipeline infrastructure, a company spokesperson says. The survey revealed “no identified signs of malicious activities” but pipeline inspections are ongoing “continuously.” 

    Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand speaks to the crew. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past. We are probably less naïve nowadays,” he says.

    Perhaps understandably, the heightened level of alert has led to the occasional false alarm. A spate of aerial drone sightings near Norwegian energy infrastructure around the time of the Nord Stream attacks last year included a report of a suspicious craft circling above Haakonsvern naval base itself. 

    “After a while, we concluded it was a seagull,” says Andersen, with the shadow of a grin.  

    Europe on alert 

    The navy chief is nonetheless deadly serious about the potential threat. A Nord Stream-style attack in the North Sea is possible. Anderson will not be drawn on the most vulnerable points in the network, saying only that “easy to access” places and “key hubs” are “two things in the back of mind when we think [about] risk.” 

    Throughout Europe, the alert has been raised. This month, NATO warned of a “significant risk” that Russia could target undersea pipelines or internet cables as part of its confrontation with the West. 

    Several countries are increasing patrols and underwater surveillance capabilities. The British Royal Navy accelerated the purchase of two specialist ocean surveillance ships, the first of which will be operational this summer. The EU and NATO have established a new joint task force focusing on critical infrastructure protection, and a “coordination cell” has been established at NATO headquarters in Brussels to improve “engagement with industry and bring key military and civilian stakeholders together” to keep the cables and pipelines secure. 

    Norway — and Europe — are in this struggle for the long haul, Andersen believes.  

    Indeed, even as Europe transitions from fossil fuels to green energy, the North Sea will remain a vital powerhouse of offshore wind energy, with plans for a huge expansion over the next 25 years. Earlier this year, the Netherlands’ intelligence services reported a Russian ship seeking to map wind farm infrastructure in the Dutch sector of the North Sea. “We think the Russians wanted to investigate the possibilities for potential future sabotage,” Jan Swillens, head of the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service tells POLITICO in an emailed statement. “This incident makes clear that these kinds of Russian operations are performed closer than one might think.” 

    At the same time in the Baltic, countries are shoring up security around their infrastructure, at sea and on land. Late last year, Estonia carried out an underwater inspection of the two Estlink power cables and the Baltic Connector gas pipeline linking it to Finland, the Estonian navy says. Lithuania, meanwhile, is paying “special attention” to security around its LNG terminal at Klaipėda and the gas cargoes that arrive there, a defense ministry spokesperson says. 

    Torgeir Standal, left, the KV Bergen’s second in command

    It was in Lithuania that Europe had its first major false alarm since the Nord Stream incident, when a gas pipeline on land exploded on a Friday evening in January. Foul play was briefly considered a possibility in the immediate aftermath but was quickly ruled out. The pipe was 40 years old, and had been subject to a technical fault. 

    The danger posed by Russia to infrastructure throughout Europe should not be underestimated, says Vilmantas Vitkauskas, director of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre and a former NATO intelligence official. 

    “We know their way of thinking, [the way] they send signals or apply pressure,” Vitkauskas says. “We understand Russia quite well, and we are quite worried by what we see — and how vulnerable our infrastructure is in Europe.” 

    The watchers on the water 

    Back aboard the Bergen, life for the sailors carries on as normal. It’s a young crew, with an average age of around 30. Some are conscripts. It’s still compulsory in Norway for 19-year-olds to present themselves for national service, but only around one in four are actually recruited for the mandated 19-month stint.   

    The days are long. Surveillance, maintenance and exercises in search and rescue are all part of the crew’s regular routine. A helicopter from one of the Oseberg oil and gas platforms soars overhead, and the crew are drafted into an exercise winching people on and off the deck of the Bergen in the dead of night, simulating a rescue operation. 

    The ship needs to be ready to respond to an incident should the call come in from naval headquarters that help is required, or a suspicious vessel has been identified in their patch of the North Sea. But in their downtime, the sailors head to the gym on the lower deck, or play FIFA on the X-box in the sparse games room. Three hearty meals a day are served in the galley kitchen. There is even a ship’s band, cheekily named “Dyb Purple” after their commander. Dyb “takes it well,” says Senior Petty Officer Storebø. 

    In the daily whirl of activity, most of the young sailors don’t think of their work in the grand strategic sense of protecting the energy security — the warmth, the light, the industry — of an entire continent. 

    But the context of the Ukraine war — and the precedent set by the Nord Stream attack — has added a note of solemnity just below the surface of the comradeship and bonhomie. 

    “We are probably less naïve nowadays,” says 33-year-old Senior Petty Officer Simen Strand, who has a wife and two children, a boy and a girl, back home in Bergen. “We haven’t had much to fear in the past, there hasn’t been a concrete threat.” 

    Storebø agrees but is characteristically sanguine. “Russia has always been there … I’ve not personally felt any more unease than before.” 

    The next day, Storebø has the night watch, from midnight to four in the morning, as the Bergen travels back to base for a short stop before heading out to sea again.  

    It’s dark up on the bridge, with the glow of the control panel screens the only light inside. Twenty miles away, little lights can be seen on the Norwegian coast. A lighthouse flares to the south, at Slåtterøy, not far from Storebø’s home island of Austevoll. Beneath the waves, unseen, gas flows from the Troll field back to the mainland, where it is processed. From there, it continues its journey south to light the dark of European nights.  

    All is quiet but Storebø can’t afford to lose focus. “Coffee and music help,” he says. “I like the night shifts.”  

    As the officer of the watch, he has to be ready, should the radar, the satellites, or his own eyes see something out of the ordinary — ready to call the captain and raise the alarm. 

    That’s the job, he says. “You always have it in the back of your mind.” 

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  • China fears threaten to shatter G7 unity

    China fears threaten to shatter G7 unity

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    HIROSHIMA, Japan — As the leaders of the Group of Seven gather for their annual summit in Japan this week, three world-changing conflicts — past, present and potential — will converge. 

    The atomic bomb that ended World War II destroyed much of the city of Hiroshima, where the leaders will meet. Today, Russia’s war in Ukraine is costing thousands of lives and billions of dollars as it drags on. And then there’s the risk of another horrifying catastrophe to come, as China threatens Taiwan. 

    And it’s over China where the alliance may come unstuck. 

    For hawks like the U.S. and Japan, the summit beginning Friday offers a timely opportunity to make the case to Europe’s leaders directly that it’s time to get off the fence when it comes to confronting China. 

    “This G7 Summit will be an appropriate venue to also discuss security issues and our security cooperation not only in Europe, but also in the Indo-Pacific region,” Noriyuki Shikata, cabinet secretary at the Japanese prime minister’s office, told POLITICO. 

    The U.S. is betting on at least the appearance of common ground with allies about the People’s Republic of China. Ahead of the summit, U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters: “You can expect to hear at the end of those discussions that all the G7 leaders are of a common mind about how to deal with the challenges that the PRC presents.”

    But — beyond the inevitably bland diplomatic lines of a summit communique — getting consensus on meaningful security measures for the Indo-Pacific region will be hard, even in the symbolic setting of Hiroshima. 

    East Asia is again descending into a state of growing security risks and military imbalance, this time due to China’s aggressive moves against Taiwan and the South China Sea. 

    “There’s a feeling that there’s a little bit of a gap, perhaps, between where the Europeans are on some China issues and where the U.S. is,” said Zack Cooper, former aide to the U.S. National Security Council and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. 

    Chief among the points of tension is how far to go in trying to stop a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which could trigger world war and wreck the global economy. The self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own, provides most of the world’s advanced computer chips that are vital to the tech and defense industries. Not all European governments are convinced it’s something they need to prioritize. “It’s going to be a continuing challenge,” Cooper said. 

    Picking friends

    NATO is set to extend its footprint in Asia and set up a new liaison office in Tokyo to better coordinate with regional partners, such as Australia, South Korea and New Zealand. 

    However, French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly called on NATO to focus only on the Euro-Atlantic theater, saying Asia — China — is not covered geographically. He also triggered an outcry with recent comments to POLITICO, suggesting that Taiwan’s security was not Europe’s fight, and that the EU should not automatically follow America’s lead.  

    Justin Trudeau comes to the G7 following months of intelligence leaks that have painted his government as weak on foreign interference | Yuchi Yamazaki/AFP via Getty Images

    Macron’s stance sets France — which is the EU’s biggest military power — apart from the U.S. and Japan, and also from the U.K., where Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to announce a new security deal with Japan during his visit.

    “Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said last year, not long after Russia’s full-scale invasion began. Last week, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi made an even more explicit warning in a speech made to his 27 EU counterparts in Sweden.

    “China is continuing and intensifying its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East and South China Seas. China is also increasing its military activities around Taiwan,” Hayashi said. “In addition, China and Russia are strengthening their military collaboration, including joint flights of their bombers and joint naval exercises in the vicinity of Japan.”

    The Chinese-Russian ties will be part of the G7 leaders’ discussions, according to two officials involved in the process, who spoke on condition of anonymity because summit preparations are not public. While the Chinese authorities stop short of openly arming Russia in its war against Ukraine, a long-term strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow is unshakable for President Xi Jinping.

    G7 countries such as the U.S. and Japan are expected to raise the need to sanction countries that work around Western trade restrictions on Russia, according to the officials. Chinese companies found to be selling dual use goods to Russia would be a top focus. 

    Bully tactics

    China’s willingness to throw around its economic weight is one area where there’s likely to be more unity between G7 allies. 

    The need to fight back against economic coercion will take center stage at the summit. The EU, U.S., Canada and Japan are going to rally around calls to combat China’s use of its economic power to bully smaller economies that act against its political interests.

    “The sense of urgency and unity is a force factor in and of itself. For example, never before has the G7 addressed economic coercion,” Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, told POLITICO. 

    “When measured against the recent past, the G7 and EU are more strategically aligned in key economic and military matters,” added Emanuel, who served as chief of staff to former U.S. President Barack Obama.

    When it comes to the European view, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is clear that the bloc is “competing with China” and will need to up its game. “We will reduce strategic dependencies — we have learned the lessons of the last year,” she said in a press conference ahead of the trip.

    Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, comes to the G7 following months of intelligence leaks that have painted his government as weak on foreign interference, specifically from China. He’ll be carrying Canada’s message that it can be a safe, non-authoritarian alternative to Russia and China for supplying critical minerals and energy, including nuclear power. 

    Despite the toughening rhetoric on China, what still unites the G7 countries is an eagerness not to shut the door on talks with Beijing. 

    US President Joe Biden arrives to attend the G7 Summit in Hiroshima on May 18, 2023 | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    The Biden administration has for months been seeking to secure a visit to China for top Cabinet members, such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, held eight hours of talks with the Chinese Communist Party’s foreign policy chief, Wang Yi, this month. 

    Just before he left for Japan on Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden was asked whether his last-minute decision to truncate his trip abroad could be seen as “almost a win for China.” Instead of staying in the region for a summit of the Quad — Japan, India, the U.S. and Australia — Biden plans to return to Washington Sunday to deal with domestic issues. 

    The president downplayed the move as something China could use to its advantage, noting he will still meet with Quad nation leaders in Japan. “We get a chance to talk separately at the meeting,” he said

    Then, Biden was asked whether he has plans to speak with the Chinese president soon.

    “Whether it’s soon or not, we will be meeting,” he said, before leaving the room. 

    Cristina Gallardo in London and Zi-Ann Lum in Ottawa contributed reporting.

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    Eli Stokols, Phelim Kine and Stuart Lau

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  • Wellness travel is rising among a particularly weary group of travelers — parents

    Wellness travel is rising among a particularly weary group of travelers — parents

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    Amusement parks and road trips — this is this stuff many family vacations are made of.  

    But a new survey shows parents increasingly want in on a trend that isn’t often aimed at families: wellness travel.

    A report published Thursday by the market intelligence company Morning Consult showed that parents, compared with others, showed less interest in traveling to relax or for cultural experiences, and more interest in traveling for mental and physical health.  

    The data showed an emerging picture of family travel — one in which parents may be starting to prioritize their own needs alongside those of their children.   

    Traveling to improve physical health

    American Kristen Graff took a diving trip with her family to Fiji in 2022.

    “It was something we could all do that was active,” she said.

    But “we were doing it for us,” she said, referring to herself and her husband. The kids just happened to be invited too, she said with a laugh.

    Purpose of leisure travel for trips planned in next year.

    Source: Morning Consult

    She said the family reserved one day for kid-centric activities, like all-terrain vehicle riding, but spent most of their time in the water. Graff said she and her husband are avid divers, and, as it turned out, her sons ended up loving it too.

    Compared with nonparents, parents were nearly twice as likely to have plans to travel to improve their physical health, according to Morning Consult’s survey of some 2,200 American adults.

    And the trend appears to be growing. Traveling for physical health is up eight points among parents since last year, said Lindsey Roeschke, travel and hospitality analyst at Morning Consult.

    “One bit of data I find particularly interesting is, when looking at the various goals for traveling, we asked parents who benefits from those goals — the parent themself, the kids, someone else, or everyone on the trip — and the idea of traveling to improve physical health is the one most likely to benefit the parent alone,” she said.

    And “mental health is a close second,” she said.

    One in five adult respondents said they are planning to travel to improve their mental health, but among parents the rate rose to nearly one in three — perhaps reflecting the lack of time parents have in their daily lives to focus on their own well-being, according to the report.  

    “The idea of traveling for mental or physical wellness is attractive to them because they themselves feel the benefit of it, rather than putting someone else’s needs before their own — which parents have to do all the time,” Roeschke said.

    Traveling to relax

    Simply put, it’s harder for parents to relax when traveling,

    Lindsey Roeschke

    travel and hospitality analyst at Morning Consult

    Parents of young kids are also the most likely to be deterred from traveling, because of costs or the added stress of lugging around car seats and strollers, according to the report.

    Simply put, it’s harder for parents to relax when traveling,” said Roeschke. “I’ve often heard it said that traveling with a child is just parenting in a new location, and it can actually be more difficult than parenting at home due to schedule changes, lack of comforts of home — like toys, games, cribs, highchairs — and upended routines.” 

    Parents also showed less enthusiasm to travel to spend time with family and friends, the May report showed.

    “Parents are doing that often at home, so they’re less likely to think of it as the purpose of their trip,” she said.

    Planning a wellness family vacation

    In February, Napa Valley’s Carneros Resort and Spa debuted a spring “Little Seedlings” program for children that includes garden tours and chicken feeding. Kids can also take yoga classes, embark on scavenger hunts and sleep outside in a tent — fireside smores included.

    “Napa doesn’t just have to be an adults-only experience,” said managing director Edward Costa. “The Little Seedlings program was designed to inspire our youngest guests … while allowing the adults to fully embrace the charm and amenities of our luxury resort.”

    Guests must be at least 17 years old to visit the BodyHoliday Saint Lucia, but the all-inclusive resort makes an exception on major holidays and during fitness-themed weeks in the summer. From July 3 to Aug. 25, the family-based fitness weeks combine yoga, sailing, healthy cooking and “beach boot camps” hosted by visiting Olympians.

    Planning your own wellness trip

    Madikwe Safari Lodge accepts children aged seven and older, and drives don’t go as close to dangerous game, according to its website.

    Hoberman Collection | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

    In the winter, Harlow recommends Sweden for sleigh rides, watching the Northern Lights and a stay at the Ice Hotel — which has beds and chandeliers made of ice — while families keen on history can cruise the Nile in Egypt.

    Parents can also swap the traditional family vacation for a couples or even solo trip — or by booking a trip that includes just part of the family.  

    “Globally, we’ve noticed a growing trend of one parent taking one child away for a bonding holiday,” said Harlow. “Mother and daughter trips, in particular, are on the rise.”

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  • ‘We can’t get to your passport:’ People stranded in Sudan after Western diplomats flee without returning travel documents | CNN

    ‘We can’t get to your passport:’ People stranded in Sudan after Western diplomats flee without returning travel documents | CNN

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    CNN
     — 

    A growing number of people say they are stranded in Sudan because Western embassy workers fled the conflict-ridden country without returning passports that were surrendered during visa applications.

    Diplomats from at least three Western missions have been unable to grant access to travel documents belonging to Sudanese nationals, according to nine testimonies reviewed by CNN.

    Most Western embassies in Sudan were evacuated a week into the fighting, leaving many Sudanese visa applicants without their travel documents and in legal limbo.

    In some cases, embassy workers advised people to “apply for a new [Sudanese] passport” despite the violence grinding Sudanese government services to a halt, according to screenshots seen by CNN.

    In one case, a Swedish official suggested that the Sudanese visa applicant use a photocopy of his passport in lieu of his travel document.

    The Sudanese nationals who spoke to CNN accused the embassies of neglect, obstructing their legal passage out of the country, where the violence has claimed at least 512 lives.

    The Dutch foreign ministry confirmed to CNN that “a number of Sudanese passports” were left behind at the embassy after it closed “with immediate effect” due to the conflict.

    “A number of Sudanese passports were left behind at the Dutch embassy. These are passports of Sudanese passport holders who have applied for a short-stay Schengen visa or an MVV (provisional residence permit). The sudden outburst of fighting in the early morning of April 15, forced the Dutch embassy to close with immediate effect,” a spokesperson for the ministry said in a statement.

    “The diplomatic staff has since been evacuated and transferred to the Netherlands. Unfortunately, we have not been able to collect these passports due to the poor security situation. We understand that this has put the people involved in a difficult situation. We are actively investigating possibilities to provide individual support,” they added.

    The Italian foreign ministry told CNN it was aware of the problem, and will try to return passports to Sudanese nationals “as soon as possible.”

    “We are well aware of the problem. Keeping in touch with all concerned people and will do our outmost [sic], even under the current circumstances, to return the passports as soon as possible. We are taking care of Sudanese nationals who are in this situation with the same attention we are devoting to our evacuees. We are actively working to be able to respond quickly to the requests,” Niccolò Fontana, the head of communication for Italian Foreign Ministry, said to CNN.

    CNN also asked the Swedish foreign ministry for comment, but had not received a response by the time of publication.

    A spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross told CNN the aid organization does not issue emergency travel documents to Sudanese citizens trying to leave the country.

    “I can’t imagine, how incredibly difficult it must be for Sudanese people who want to leave the country, but can’t do so because they don’t have their documents. But unfortunately the ICRC cannot issue emergency travel documents for people to leave their own country,” they told CNN in a statement.

    Sporadic attacks have continued to flare in parts of the capital Khartoum, the epicenter of the power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

    Civilian hopes of fleeing the danger through safe and legal routes are dwindling, as the clashes persist despite a ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese army and paramilitary forces.

    On Friday, RSF claimed it had secured all the roads into the capital and controlled 90% of what is Sudan’s most populous state.

    Meanwhile, SAF accused the paramilitary group of violating international humanitarian law and targeting retired military and police officers.

    “[The RSF] is committing crimes and terrorist practices that have nothing to do with the legacies of the Sudanese people,” the SAF said in a statement, vowing a harsh response.

    Since the conflict broke out, more than 50,000 people have fled Sudan to Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said on Twitter on Friday.

    The number includes both Sudanese nationals and refugees who were forced to return to their countries, Grandi said, warning that the number will continue to rise until the violence stops.

    India’s Ministry of External Affairs said on Friday that it had evacuated “nearly 2,400” Indian citizens from Sudan since the start of the conflict. They were transported out by the Indian Navy and Air Forces in 13 batches.

    News of those stranded without passports comes amid a growing chorus of criticism against foreign governments and international aid organizations leading rescue operations to extract their own nationals, leaving locals to fend for themselves. Power, food and water shortages are rampant as the conflict devastates large parts of the country.

    Fatima – a pseudonym CNN is using for security reasons – said she is desperate to leave the country. Two people in her east Khartoum neighborhood were killed in the fighting. But her travel documents are locked in the Italian Embassy, where she said staff members denied her repeated pleas to retrieve her passport.

    “I’m still trying to communicate with them, trying to explain that this is a critical situation,” she said. “Of course no country will allow people to enter their lands without a valid passport.”

    Zara, another Sudanese woman caught up in the passport bind, said her family has refused to leave the country without her. CNN is using a pseudonym for security reasons. The evacuated Dutch Embassy – where she said her passport has been held for more than three weeks – has not responded to her attempts to contact them.

    Men walk past shells on the ground near damaged buildings in Khartoum North in Sudan on Thursday, where the violence has left some locals trapped inside their homes.

    “I am now an obstacle for my family since they cannot travel and leave me,” she told CNN.

    “Please help end this war. And please consider this passport issue. It might save lives. The house in front of us has been attacked.”

    In a social media exchange seen by CNN, between another visa applicant and the Dutch Embassy, the official Facebook page of the diplomatic mission declined a request to return a withheld passport.

    “We deeply regret the current situation you’re in,” the embassy replied to 35-year-old Sarah Abdalla. “We were forced to close the embassy and evacuate our staff. This unfortunately means we can’t get to your passport.”

    “We advise to apply [sic] for a new passport with your local authorities,” the embassy added.

    For many, that’s not possible. Sudanese government services have been largely suspended in Sudan due to the fighting.

    “I am in urgent need of my passport to leave to Egypt through the road,” Abdalla told CNN. “We are in an unsafe condition and suffering from lack of water in the taps now for 13 days.

    “We go out threatening our lives to fetch water and usually get salty water. I have four other colleagues [whose] passports [are] stuck and facing the same situation.”

    Nabta Seifelyazal Mohamed Ali, a 20-year-old Sudanese medical student at the University of Khartoum, said she urgently needs to obtain her passport from the Dutch Embassy so she can make the treacherous journey to Egypt with her family, including her mother, father, uncle, and her four siblings.

    In an email correspondence with the Dutch Embassy, seen by CNN, an embassy worker replied: “We understand your situation but it is not safe enough to reopen our services. We do not know how long this situation will last. If there are any updates we will inform you.”

    Ali said that the family needs to leave their home by Sunday because they are running out of medication for her sick uncle, who has a chronic kidney condition.

    Filmmaker Ahmad Mahmoud, 35, said the Swedish Embassy has held his passport since he applied for a visa to attend Sweden’s Malmo Arab Film Festival, which started on April 28.

    Christina Brooks, the head of migration at the Swedish Embassy in Khartoum, repeatedly told Mahmoud that personnel could not access his passport because they had evacuated the building, according to excerpts of phone messages seen by CNN.

    “Please please let me know when I can go to the embassy and take my passport. I need to be ready to leave the country. Our building is not safe anymore,” Mahmoud said in one excerpted message to Brooks.

    Brooks replied: “As mentioned, I’m deeply sorry to say that it is not possible.”

    In lieu of travel documents, she recommended he use a photocopy of his passport to exit Sudan and to “collect all other documents of identification” including his marriage certificate, the messages said.

    “At least it is good that you have a copy if you manage to get out without the actual passport,” said Brooks. “I hope that you and your family manage to get out and that you stay safe!”

    “I can’t leave with this,” Mahmoud said, attaching a picture of his faded photocopied passport.

    CNN asked Brooks for comment but had not received a response by the time of publication.

    When CNN last spoke to Mahmoud on Thursday, he and his wife were en route to the coastal city of Port Sudan on the Red Sea. They will contend with chaotic border crossings, where confused border guards have frequently been denying people passage out of the country, including some Sudanese-American dual nationals.

    “Not having my passport with me puts crazy, crazy stress on me because my wife is not going to accept leaving without me,” he told CNN.

    Mahmoud said he will attempt to “go to Ethiopia or Egypt from [Port Sudan]. It’s going to be a huge, huge problem that I have no idea how to deal with. I’m just hoping for an end to the war, I guess, so I can get a new passport.”

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  • Don’t isolate China, Brussels tells EU capitals

    Don’t isolate China, Brussels tells EU capitals

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    BRUSSELS — The EU’s high command is calling on European governments to keep talking to China amid deepening tensions between Washington and Beijing. 

    The European Union’s diplomatic arm wants member countries to “be prepared” for a potentially critical escalation in the crisis over Taiwan, warning that a military conflict would upend the vital supply of microchips to Europe. 

    But while there’s a need to reduce risks to Europe, it may not seal itself off from China, according to an internal document drafted by the European External Action Service and seen by POLITICO. 

    The document, which will be discussed by the bloc’s foreign ministers at a gathering in Stockholm on Friday, comes at a crucial time for the EU as it navigates an increasingly complex relationship with China. The U.S. is doubling down on its hawkish stance toward Beijing, while European leaders have not yet agreed on a unified approach. 

    The paper triggered immediate backlash from some of Europe’s more hawkish governments. “With all possible alarm lights flashing, we seem to prefer hitting a snooze button again,” one senior EU diplomat said on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive issues.

    In the document, prepared by the EU executive’s diplomatic officials, the bloc’s 27 member countries are urged to seize “a window of opportunity” to reduce the risk of China’s growing influence over economic and security matters. 

    A chance remains for Europe to speak directly to President Xi Jinping’s government, the paper says. “China and Europe cannot become more foreign to each other. Otherwise there is a risk that misunderstandings will grow and spread to other areas,” according to the draft. 

    “Systemic rivalry may feature in almost all areas of engagement. But this must not deter the EU from maintaining open channels of communication and seeking constructive cooperation with China […] Such cooperation can serve to break through a growing self-induced isolation of the Chinese leadership but most importantly should advance the EU’s core interests,” the paper continued.

    Friday’s debate at an informal meeting of foreign ministers in Sweden will fire the starting gun on a discussion over the EU’s relationship with China that is expected to dominate policymaking in the coming months, with a more comprehensive debate expected at an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels this June. 

    De-risking Beijing

    The paper calls on member countries to speed up plans for “de-risking” and reducing overdependence on China. 

    “De-risking can ensure predictability and transparency in our economic and trade relations, while promoting a secure, rules-based approach,” the paper says. 

    The call for de-risking comes as Beijing appears increasingly impatient with the narrative that it poses a threat to the West. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, speaking in Berlin this week, criticized European politicians for attempting to “get rid of China” in the name of de-risking. 

    The paper also tackles the politically sensitive issue of Taiwan, with ministers due to discuss this issue as well on Friday. French President Emmanuel Macron told POLITICO in an interview last month that Europe should avoid getting dragged into a confrontation between China and the U.S. over the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own. 

    On Taiwan, the paper says: “The EU is […] adamant that any unilateral change of the status quo and use of force could have massive economic, political and security consequences, at global level, especially considering Taiwan’s primary role as supplier of the most advanced semiconductors.” 

    The document continues: “The EU needs to be prepared for scenarios in which tensions increase significantly. The risk of escalation in the Taiwan Strait clearly shows the necessity to work with partners to deter the erosion of the status quo in the interest of all.”

    Some 90 percent of advanced semiconductors imported into the EU come from Taiwan, according to the bloc’s own estimates.

    Taiwan’s semiconductor giant TSMC has been under pressure to relocate some of its manufacturing capabilities, but so far it has only moved in the direction of Taiwan’s two presumed security providers — the U.S. and Japan.  

    On Ukraine, the EU is not impressed with China’s latest diplomatic show, marked by President Xi Jinping’s belated first call with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    “China’s ’12-point position paper on the Ukraine Crisis’ […] confirms its firmly pro-Russian stance,” the document said. “Direct dialogue between China and Ukraine would be the best opportunity for China to contribute to a fair political settlement,” it continued.

    EU member countries should keep warning Beijing to refrain from supporting Russia, including by circumventing sanctions, the same paper added.

    The paper also casts gloom on the outlook for China’s domestic development, saying the Asian superpower “is likely to face unprecedented economic and political challenges internally” due to the deceleration of economic growth and demographic change. 

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    Stuart Lau , Jacopo Barigazzi and Suzanne Lynch

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  • Swedish research rocket flies off course, accidentally lands in Norway

    Swedish research rocket flies off course, accidentally lands in Norway

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    A microgravity research rocket launched by Sweden on Monday morning accidentally landed inside Norway, the Swedish Space Corporation said in a statement Tuesday. 

    The rocket reached an altitude of about 155 miles, but then it “took a slightly longer and more westerly trajectory than calculated” and landed in a mountain range about 9 miles into Norwegian territory, the SSC said. 

    “It landed in the mountains at 1,000 meters altitude, and 10 kilometers from the closest settlement,” Philip Ohlsson, head of communications at SSC, told Reuters.

    The launch of the “SubOrbital Express 3” suborbital rocket from the Esrange Space Center in Jukkasjärvi, northern Sweden, on November 23, 2022. 

    MARC PREEL/AFP/Getty Images


    Shortly after landing, Swedish and Norweigan authorities were notified, the SSC confirmed later on Tuesday. The rocket and its payload were found to be in good condition and were transported back to Esrange Space Center in Sweden by helicopter.

    “This is a deviation that we take seriously. We are now investigating the reason why the rocket flew further northwest than nominal. It is still too early to speculate about the cause, and we await more information from the current investigation,” Marko Kohberg, rocket and balloons operations manager at Esrange, said to the SSC. 


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  • Saturday Sessions: The Tallest Man On Earth performs

    Saturday Sessions: The Tallest Man On Earth performs

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    Saturday Sessions: The Tallest Man On Earth performs “Looking for Love” – CBS News


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    Swedish singer-songwriter Kristian Matsson is the voice behind The Tallest Man on Earth. The singer-songwriter captivates audiences with his folk-inspired melodies and poetic lyrics, and is relesasing his sixth album, “Henry Street.” Here is The Tallest Man On Earth with “Looking for Love”

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  • Saturday Sessions: The Tallest Man On Earth performs

    Saturday Sessions: The Tallest Man On Earth performs

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    Saturday Sessions: The Tallest Man On Earth performs “In Your Garden Still” – CBS News


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    Swedish singer-songwriter Kristian Matsson is the voice behind the band Tallest Man on Earth. The singer-songwriter captivates audiences with his folk-inspired melodies and poetic lyrics, and is relesasing his sixth album, “Henry Street.” Here is The Tallest Man On Earth with “In Your Garden Still”

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  • 2023’s most important election: Turkey

    2023’s most important election: Turkey

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    Press play to listen to this article

    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    For Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, next month’s election is of massive historical significance.

    It falls 100 years after the foundation of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic and, if Erdoğan wins, he will be empowered to put even more of his stamp on the trajectory of a geostrategic heavyweight of 85 million people. The fear in the West is that he will see this as his moment to push toward an increasingly religiously conservative model, characterized by regional confrontationalism, with greater political powers centered around himself.

    The election will weigh heavily on security in Europe and the Middle East. Who is elected stands to define: Turkey’s role in the NATO alliance; its relationship with the U.S., the EU and Russia; migration policy; Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine; and how it handles tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

    The May 14 vote is expected to be the most hotly contested race in Erdoğan’s 20-year rule — as the country grapples with years of economic mismanagement and the fallout from a devastating earthquake.

    He will face an opposition aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi,” who is promising big changes. Polls suggest Kılıçdaroğlu has eked out a lead, but Erdoğan is a hardened election campaigner, with the full might of the state and its institutions at his back.

    “There will be a change from an authoritarian single-man rule, towards a kind of a teamwork, which is a much more democratic process,” Ünal Çeviköz, chief foreign policy adviser to Kılıçdaroğlu told POLITICO. “Kılıçdaroğlu will be the maestro of that team.”

    Here are the key foreign policy topics in play in the vote:

    EU and Turkish accession talks

    Turkey’s opposition is confident it can unfreeze European Union accession talks — at a standstill since 2018 over the country’s democratic backsliding — by introducing liberalizing reforms in terms of rule of law, media freedoms and depoliticization of the judiciary.

    The opposition camp also promises to implement European Court of Human Rights decisions calling for the release of two of Erdoğan’s best-known jailed opponents: the co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş and human rights defender Osman Kavala.

    “This will simply give the message to all our allies, and all the European countries, that Turkey is back on track to democracy,” Çeviköz said.

    Even under a new administration, however, the task of reopening the talks on Turkey’s EU accession is tricky.

    Turkey’s opposition is aligned behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi” | Burak Kara/Getty Images

    Anti-Western feeling in Turkey is very strong across the political spectrum, argued Wolfango Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis company Teneo.

    “Foreign policy will depend on the coherence of the coalition,” he said. “This is a coalition of parties who have nothing in common apart from the desire to get rid of Erdoğan. They’ve got a very different agenda, and this will have an impact in foreign policy.”

    “The relationship is largely comatose, and has been for some time, so, they will keep it on life support,” he said, adding that any new government would have so many internal problems to deal with that its primary focus would be domestic.

    Europe also seems unprepared to handle a new Turkey, with a group of countries — most prominently France and Austria — being particularly opposed to the idea of rekindling ties.

    “They are used to the idea of a non-aligned Turkey, that has departed from EU norms and values and is doing its own course,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş a visiting fellow at Brookings. “If the opposition forms a government, it will seek a European identity and we don’t know Europe’s answer to that; whether it could be accession or a new security framework that includes Turkey.”

    “Obviously the erosion of trust has been mutual,” said former Turkish diplomat Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, arguing that despite reticence about Turkish accession, there are other areas where a complementary and mutually beneficiary framework could be built, like the customs union, visa liberalization, cooperation on climate, security and defense, and the migration agreement.

    The opposition will indeed seek to revisit the 2016 agreement with the EU on migration, Çeviköz said.

    “Our migration policy has to be coordinated with the EU,” he said. “Many countries in Europe see Turkey as a kind of a pool, where migrants coming from the east can be contained and this is something that Turkey, of course cannot accept,” he said but added. “This doesn’t mean that Turkey should open its borders and make the migrants flow into Europe. But we need to coordinate and develop a common migration policy.”

    NATO and the US

    After initially imposing a veto, Turkey finally gave the green light to Finland’s NATO membership on March 30.

    But the opposition is also pledging to go further and end the Turkish veto on Sweden, saying that this would be possible by the alliance’s annual gathering on July 11. “If you carry your bilateral problems into a multilateral organization, such as NATO, then you are creating a kind of a polarization with all the other members of NATO with your country,” Çeviköz said.

    A protester pushes a cart with a RRecep Tayyip Erdoğan doll during an anti-NATO and anti-Turkey demonstration in Sweden | Jonas Gratzer/Getty Images

    A reelected Erdoğan could also feel sufficiently empowered to let Sweden in, many insiders argue. NATO allies did, after all, play a significant role in earthquake aid. Turkish presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın says that the door is not closed to Sweden, but insists the onus is on Stockholm to determine how things proceed.

    Turkey’s military relationship with the U.S. soured sharply in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system, a move the U.S. said would put NATO aircraft flying over Turkey at risk. In response, the U.S. kicked Ankara out of the F-35 jet fighter program and slapped sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.

    A meeting in late March between Kılıçdaroğlu and the U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Jeff Flake infuriated Erdoğan, who saw it as an intervention in the elections and pledged to “close the door” to the U.S. envoy. “We need to teach the United States a lesson in this elections,” the irate president told voters.

    In its policy platform, the opposition makes a clear reference to its desire to return to the F-35 program.

    Russia and the war in Ukraine

    After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey presented itself as a middleman. It continues to supply weapons — most significantly Bayraktar drones — to Ukraine, while refusing to sanction Russia. It has also brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea.

    Highlighting his strategic high-wire act on Russia, after green-lighting Finland’s NATO accession and hinting Sweden could also follow, Erdoğan is now suggesting that Turkey could be the first NATO member to host Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    “Maybe there is a possibility” that Putin may travel to Turkey on April 27 for the inauguration of the country’s first nuclear power reactor built by Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom, he said.

    Çeviköz said that under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, Turkey would be willing to continue to act as a mediator and extend the grain deal, but would place more stress on Ankara’s status as a NATO member.

    “We will simply emphasize the fact that Turkey is a member of NATO, and in our discussions with Russia, we will certainly look for a relationship among equals, but we will also remind Russia that Turkey is a member of NATO,” he said.

    Turkey’s relationship with Russia has become very much driven by the relationship between Putin and Erdoğan and this needs to change, Ülgen argued.

    Turkey brokered a U.N. deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea | Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images

     “No other Turkish leader would have the same type of relationship with Putin, it would be more distant,” he said. “It does not mean that Turkey would align itself with the sanctions; it would not. But nonetheless, the relationship would be more transparent.”

    Syria and migration

    The role of Turkey in Syria is highly dependent on how it can address the issue of Syrians living in Turkey, the opposition says.

    Turkey hosts some 4 million Syrians and many Turks, battling a major cost-of-living crisis, are becoming increasingly hostile. Kılıçdaroğlu has pledged to create opportunities and the conditions for the voluntary return of Syrians.

    “Our approach would be to rehabilitate the Syrian economy and to create the conditions for voluntary returns,” Çeviköz said, adding that this would require an international burden-sharing, but also establishing dialogue with Damascus.

    Erdoğan is also trying to establish a rapprochement with Syria but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he will only meet the Turkish president when Ankara is ready to completely withdraw its military from northern Syria.

    “A new Turkish government will be more eager to essentially shake hands with Assad,” said Ülgen. “But this will remain a thorny issue because there will be conditions attached on the side of Syria to this normalization.”

    However, Piccoli from Teneo said voluntary returns of Syrians was “wishful thinking.”

    “These are Syrians who have been living in Turkey for more than 10 years, their children have been going to school in Turkey from day one. So, the pledges of sending them back voluntarily, it is very questionable to what extent they can be implemented.”

    Greece and the East Med

    Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with the Erdoğan even warning that a missile could strike Athens.

    But the prompt reaction by the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and a visit by the Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new backdrop for bilateral relations.

    A Turkish drill ship before it leaves for gas exploration | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images

    Dendias, along with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced that Turkey would vote for Greece in its campaign for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for 2025-26 and that Greece would support the Turkish candidacy for the General Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization.

    In another sign of a thaw, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi visited Turkey this month, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar saying he hoped that the Mediterranean and Aegean would be a “sea of friendship” between the two countries. Akar said he expected a moratorium with Greece in military and airforce exercises in the Aegean Sea between June 15 and September 15.

    “Both countries are going to have elections, and probably they will have the elections on the same day. So, this will open a new horizon in front of both countries,” Çeviköz said.

    “The rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in their bilateral problems [in the Aegean], will facilitate the coordination in addressing the other problems in the eastern Mediterranean, which is a more multilateral format,” he said. Disputes over maritime borders and energy exploration, for example, are common.

    As far as Cyprus is concerned, Çeviköz said that it is important for Athens and Ankara not to intervene into the domestic politics of Cyprus and the “two peoples on the island should be given an opportunity to look at their problems bilaterally.”

    However, analysts argue that Greece, Cyprus and the EastMed are fundamental for Turkey’s foreign policy and not much will change with another government. The difference will be more one of style.

    “The approach to manage those differences will change very much. So, we will not hear aggressive rhetoric like: ‘We will come over one night,’” said Ülgen. “We’ll go back to a more mature, more diplomatic style of managing differences and disputes.”

    “The NATO framework will be important, and the U.S. would have to do more in terms of re-establishing the sense of balance in the Aegean,” said Aydıntaşbaş. But, she argued, “you just cannot normalize your relations with Europe or the U.S., unless you’re willing to take that step with Greece.”

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  • Finland to join NATO on Tuesday 

    Finland to join NATO on Tuesday 

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    Finland will formally become a full-fledged NATO ally on Tuesday, the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Monday. 

    “This is an historic week,” the NATO chief told reporters. “Tomorrow, we will welcome Finland as the 31st member of NATO, making Finland safer and our alliance stronger.” 

    A ceremony marking Finland’s accession is set to take place Tuesday afternoon. 

    “We will raise the Finnish flag for the first time here at the NATO headquarters,” Stoltenberg said, adding: “It will be a good day for Finland’s security, for Nordic security, and for NATO as a whole.”

    The move comes after Hungary and Turkey ratified Finland’s membership bid last week, removing the last hurdles to Helsinki’s accession. 

    Sweden’s membership aspiration, however, remains in limbo as Budapest and Ankara continue to withhold support. 

    Speaking ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Stoltenberg reiterated that he believes Stockholm is still on its way to ultimately joining the alliance as well. 

    “All allies,” he said, “agree that Sweden’s accession should be completed quickly.”

    At their meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, ministers will discuss the alliance’s defense spending goals and future relationship with Kyiv. 

    They will also attend a session of the NATO-Ukraine Commission together with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and meet with partners from ​Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

    In his press conference, the NATO chief also addressed multiple challenges facing the transatlantic alliance, including Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent announcement that Russia will deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. 

    Putin’s announcement is “part of a pattern of dangerous, reckless nuclear rhetoric” and an effort to use nuclear weapons as “intimidation, coercion to stop NATO allies and partners from supporting Ukraine.”

    “We will not be intimidated,” the NATO boss said.

    NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin of Finland | Heikki Saukkomaa/Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images

    The alliance “remains vigilant, we monitor very closely what Russia does,” he said. “But so far,” he added, “we haven’t seen any changes in their nuclear posture” that require any change in NATO’s nuclear stance.

    In a statement Monday, the Finnish president’s office said that, “Finland will deposit its instrument of accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the U.S. State Department in Brussels on Tuesday” before the start of NATO foreign ministers’ session. 

    Sanna Marin, the prime minister when Finland applied to join NATO, suffered defeat in a national election on Sunday. Her Social Democrats finished third, with the center-right National Coalition Party coming out on top.

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  • Finland cleared to join NATO following Turkish vote

    Finland cleared to join NATO following Turkish vote

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    The Turkish parliament on Thursday unanimously ratified Finland’s accession to NATO, effectively allowing Helsinki to join the military alliance but leaving Sweden out in the cold.

    Finland could now become a formal member of NATO within days. 

    “All 30 NATO members have now ratified Finland’s membership,” Finnish President Sauli Niinistö tweeted. “I want to thank every one of them for their trust and support. Finland will be a strong and capable Ally, committed to the security of the Alliance,” he said. 

    His country, the president added, “is now ready to join NATO.” 

    The Turkish vote, occurring minutes before midnight in Ankara, comes after months of delays. 

    Finland and Sweden initially applied for membership last May, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And while the two countries were formally invited to join the alliance last summer, both Turkey and Hungary have been stalling on ratifying their memberships.  

    Ankara has raised concerns about the countries’ support of Kurdish groups and limitations on arms exports. But despite striking a deal with both Helsinki and Stockholm that spurred policy changes, Ankara ultimately decided to greenlight Finland while holding Sweden back.

    Hungary’s parliament on Monday also ratified Finland’s membership but like Turkey has yet to schedule a vote on Sweden. 

    Western officials had hoped that both countries would become full members before a summit of NATO leaders scheduled to take place in Vilnius in July, but it remains uncertain whether Sweden could still become a member before the gathering. 

    Turkey is set to hold elections in May, fuelling speculation that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is withholding support for Sweden for domestic political reasons and could change his mind at a later stage. 

    Niinistö, the Finnish president, said in his tweet late Thursday that “we look forward to welcoming Sweden to join us as soon as possible.” 

    Now that Finland has Turkey’s formal support, only procedural steps are left before Helsinki officially joins NATO. 

    Finland will soon get a formal invitation from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and then give the U.S. its so-called instrument of accession. The U.S. will then issue a statement that Finland is now part of the North Atlantic Treaty.

    The NATO chief welcomed Turkey’s vote.

    “This,” Stoltenberg tweeted, “will make the whole NATO family stronger & safer.” 

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  • Finland on course for NATO membership after Hungarian vote

    Finland on course for NATO membership after Hungarian vote

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    The Hungarian parliament ratified Finland’s NATO membership on Monday, putting Helsinki one step closer to joining the alliance but leaving Sweden waiting in the wings. 

    Members of Hungary’s parliament voted by a margin of 182 to 6 in favor of Finnish accession.

    Helsinki now only needs the Turkish parliament’s approval — expected soon — to become a NATO member. 

    Hungary’s move comes after repeated delays and political U-turns. 

    Hungarian officials spent months telling counterparts they had no objections and their parliament was simply busy with other business. 

    Budapest then changed its narrative last month, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — who has an iron grip over his ruling Fidesz party — arguing the point that some of his legislators had qualms regarding criticism of the state of Hungarian democracy. 

    Finland and Sweden have been at the forefront of safeguarding democratic standards in Hungary, speaking out on the matter long before many of their counterparts.

    But earlier this month — just as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that he will support Finland’s NATO membership — the Fidesz position flipped again, with its parliamentary group chair then announcing support for Helsinki’s bid.

    Turkey’s parliament is expected to ratify Finnish membership soon. But it is keeping Sweden in limbo, as Turkish officials say they want to see the country implement new anti-terror policies before giving Ankara’s green light. 

    Following in Turkey’s footsteps, Hungary is now also delaying a decision on Sweden indefinitely — prompting criticism from Orbán’s critics. 

    Attila Ara-Kovács, a member of the European Parliament from Hungary’s opposition Democratic Coalition, said that Orbán’s moves are part of a strategy to fuel anti-Western attitudes at home. 

    The government’s aim is “further inciting anti-Western and anti-NATO sentiment within Hungary, especially among Orbán’s fanatical supporters — and besides, of course, to serve Russian interests,” he said. 

    “This has its consequences,” Ara-Kovács said, adding that “support for the EU and NATO in the country is significantly and constantly decreasing.”

    A recent Eurobarometer poll found that 39 percent of Hungarians view the EU positively. A NATO report, published last week, shows that 77 percent of Hungarians would vote to stay in the alliance — compared to 89 percent in Poland and 84 percent in Romania.

    But Hungarian officials are adding the spin that they do support Sweden’s NATO membership. 

    The Swedish government “constantly questioning the state of Hungarian democracy” is “insulting our voters, MPs and the country as a whole,” said Balázs Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister’s political director (no relation to the prime minister).

    It is “up to the Swedes to make sure that Hungarian MPs’ concerns are addressed,” he tweeted on Sunday. “Our goal,” he added, “is to support Sweden’s NATO accession with a parliamentary majority as broad as possible.” 

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  • France pushes protectionism in Ukraine defense plan

    France pushes protectionism in Ukraine defense plan

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    As Russia’s war in Ukraine puts a heavy strain on EU arms, there’s infighting in Brussels over how best to reload.

    The latest skirmish is focused around a procurement fund intended to ramp up production of arms in Europe.

    POLITICO has learned that key committees in the European Parliament — namely, the committees for industry, the internal market, and the subcommittee on security and defense — have clashed over the fund, formally known as European Defense Industry Reinforcement Through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA). It holds €500 million for now, with the possibility to grow.

    A French-led group in the Parliament is vying to keep the joint defense purchase pot within the borders of the European Union — which opponents are deriding as a power grab for France.

    Currently, a compromise text seen by POLITICO leaves the door open to spending outside the EU. It says non-EU companies may be involved “provided that this does not contravene … the security and defense interests of the union and its member states.”

    A faction across the relevant committees — consisting mainly of Polish, Estonian, Portuguese, German and Luxembourgish parliamentarians — has also amended the text to include “associated third countries.” They want to keep open the option to tap non-EU countries, like South Korea or the United States, to fill any gaps in weapon production.

    In light of grinding ground battles on Ukrainian territory, concerns have been growing over the EU’s capacity to ramp up production of ammunition and weapons.

    Yet French MEPs who dominate the Renew Europe group have been pushing back, seeking to make the fund a European-only affair.

    Nathalie Loiseau, chair of the parliamentary defense subcommittee, denied that the push to limit funding to European countries would benefit only France. “France is not the only country producing weapons in Europe,” the Renew MEP told POLITICO, pointing also to Germany, Italy and Poland. 

    Loiseau said the entire remit of EDIRPA is intended to strengthen European industrial policy. “We need our industries to be able to produce [arms] more quickly, and we need to find a way to encourage this, so we need a solid EDIRPA.”

    Ivars Ījabs, a Latvian MEP in the Renew Europe group who is leading work on the file in the internal market committee, described how he and his colleagues are “aware of the immediate challenges to European defense forces.”

    As one of the MEPs most opposed to the French position, he explained: “My French colleagues are very much in support of the European Commission’s original proposal, with an emphasis on strengthening the defense industrial base in the medium term.”

    Loiseau added that while she is open to non-European companies producing the weapons, “they must be produced in Europe,” arguing that spending EU money on weapons produced outside the bloc would be illegal under EU treaties, risking collapse of the entire procurement program.

    Striking a balance

    The increasingly acrimonious row in Parliament over the defense plan hits on a question raised since Europe began discussing beefing up its defense capabilities: Who will be able to get their hands on the extra billions of euros the EU intends to invest?

    Thierry Breton, the internal market commissioner who announced the plan last year and has been championing it, is also French. Unveiling the initiative, he said, “These investments, funded by the European taxpayers … should benefit first and foremost European industry wherever that is possible.”

    French industry accounts for more than 25 percent of European military capabilities. But many other countries, from Italy to Sweden, also have strong defense sectors (and many key companies based there often have strong corporate ties with countries outside the EU, such as the U.K. and the U.S.).

    German center-right MEP Andreas Schwab said a balance needs to be struck to get the process moving. 

    “This instrument needs to find a middle ground, a middle way: sufficiently flexible for foreign components, but also a boost to EU industry — and especially, a boost to make ministries of defense start working together on bigger joint procurement projects,” he told POLITICO. 

    Thierry Breton announced the procurement plan last year, arguing it should benefit first and foremost European industry | Pool photo by Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images

    All major players agree on one thing: The fund should be bigger.

    While the Commission’s plan earmarked an initial €500 million, the draft European Parliament proposal by the internal market and defense committees increased that to €1.5 billion. 

    But even €1.5 billion is “peanuts” when it comes to military hardware, said Dragoş Tudorache, Renew’s lead on EDIRPA in the defense subcommittee.

    Tudorache explained that Parliament could theoretically wrap it up within two to three weeks once there’s agreement among the three committees.

    As to which of the two camps will win out: “Right now I would not call it either way,” the MEP said.

    A vote of the full Parliament — possibly in June — may be the most likely outcome.

    EDIRPA is separate to the European Peace Facility, an off-budget intergovernmental EU fund that is now being used to backfill member countries’ supplies once they’ve sent arms to Ukraine. This mechanism is at the center of current plans to provide ammunition quickly to Ukraine, as first reported by POLITICO.

    In contrast, EDIRPA is a medium-term project, originally meant to be for 2022 to 2024, to carry forward the joint procurement of arms and ammunition. 

    Based on EDIRPA, the Commission is meant to present an even larger program for joint procurement, called the European defence investment programme, which was originally expected for last year but is now tapped to arrive later this year.

    Diplomats point out that is unclear where the Commission could find the money for a more ambitious joint procurement program.

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  • Who blew up Nord Stream?

    Who blew up Nord Stream?

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    Nearly six months on from the subsea gas pipeline explosions, which sent geopolitical shockwaves around the world in September, there is still no conclusive answer to the question of who blew up Nord Stream.

    Some were quick to place the blame squarely at Russia’s door — citing its record of hybrid warfare and a possible motive of intimidation, in the midst of a bitter economic war with Europe over gas supply.

    But half a year has passed without any firm evidence for this — or any other explanation — being produced by the ongoing investigations of authorities in three European countries.

    Since the day of the attack, four states — Russia, the U.S., Ukraine and the U.K. — have been publicly blamed for the explosions, with varying degrees of evidence.

    Still, some things are known for sure.

    As was widely assumed within hours of the blast, the explosions were an act of deliberate sabotage. One of the three investigations, led by Sweden’s Prosecution Authority, confirmed in November that residues of explosives and several “foreign objects” were found at the “crime scene” on the seabed, around 100 meters below the surface of the Baltic Sea, close to the Danish Island of Bornholm.

    Now two new media reports — one from the New York Times, the other a joint investigation by German public broadcasters ARD and SWR, plus newspaper Die Zeit — raised the possibility that a pro-Ukrainian group — though not necessarily state-backed — may have been responsible. On Wednesday, the German Prosecutor’s Office confirmed it had searched a ship in January suspected of transporting explosives used in the sabotage, but was still investigating the seized objects, the identities of the perpetrators and their possible motives.

    In the information vacuum since September, various theories have surfaced as to the culprit and their motive:

    Theory 1: Putin, the energy bully

    In the days immediately after the attack, the working assumption of many analysts in the West was that this was a brazen act of intimidation on the part of Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin.

    Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, spelt out the hypothesis via his Twitter feed on September 27 — the day after the explosions were first detected. He branded the incident “nothing more [than] a terrorist attack planned by Russia and act of aggression towards the EU” linked to Moscow’s determination to provoke “pre-winter panic” over gas supplies to Europe.

    Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki also hinted at Russian involvement. Russia denied responsibility.

    The Nord Stream pipes are part-owned by Russia’s Gazprom. The company had by the time of the explosions announced an “indefinite” shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 pipes, citing technical issues which the EU branded “fallacious pretences.” The new Nord Stream 2 pipes, meanwhile, had never been brought into the service. Within days of Gazprom announcing the shutdown in early September, Putin issued a veiled threat that Europe would “freeze” if it stuck to its plan of energy sanctions against Russia.

    But why blow up the pipeline, if gas blackmail via shutdowns had already proved effective? Why end the possibility of gas ever flowing again?

    Simone Tagliapietra, energy specialist and senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, said it was possible that — if it was Russia — there may have been internal divisions about any such decision. “At that point, when Putin had basically decided to stop supplying [gas to] Germany, many in Russia may have been against that. This was a source of revenues.” It is possible, Tagliapietra said, that “hardliners” took the decision to end the debate by ending the pipelines.

    Blowing up Nord Stream, in this reading of the situation, was a final declaration of Russia’s willingness to cut off Europe’s gas supply indefinitely, while also demonstrating its hybrid warfare capabilities. In October, Putin said that the attack had shown that “any critical infrastructure in transport, energy or communication infrastructure is under threat — regardless of what part of the world it is located” — words viewed by many in the West as a veiled threat of more to come.

    Theory 2: The Brits did it

    From the beginning, Russian leaders have insinuated that either Ukraine or its Western allies were behind the attack. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said two days after the explosions that accusations of Russian culpability were “quite predictable and predictably stupid.” He added that Moscow had no interest in blowing up Nord Stream. “We have lost a route for gas supplies to Europe.”

    Then a month on from the blasts, the Russian defense ministry made the very specific allegation that “representatives of the U.K. Navy participated in planning, supporting and executing” the attack. No evidence was given. The same supposed British specialists were also involved in helping Ukraine coordinate a drone attack on Sevastopol in Crimea, Moscow said.  

    The U.K.’s Ministry of Defence said the “invented” allegations were intended to distract attention from Russia’s recent defeats on the battlefield. In any case, Moscow soon changed its tune.

    Theory 3: U.S. black ops

    In February, with formal investigations in Germany, Sweden and Denmark still yet to report, an article by the U.S. investigative journalist Seymour Hersh triggered a new wave of speculation. Hersh’s allegation: U.S. forces blew up Nord Stream on direct orders from Joe Biden.

    The account — based on a single source said to have “direct knowledge of the operational planning” — alleged that an “obscure deep-diving group in Panama City” was secretly assigned to lay remotely-detonated mines on the pipelines. It suggested Biden’s rationale was to sever once and for all Russia’s gas link to Germany, ensuring that no amount of Kremlin blackmail could deter Berlin from steadfastly supporting Ukraine.

    Hersh’s article also drew on Biden’s public remarks when, in February 2022, shortly before Russia’s full-scale invasion, he told reporters that should Russia invade “there will be no longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”

    The White House described Hersh’s story as “utterly false and complete fiction.” The article certainly included some dubious claims, not least that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has “cooperated with the American intelligence community since the Vietnam War.” Stoltenberg, born in 1959, was 16 years old when the war ended.

    Russian leaders, however, seized on the report, citing it as evidence at the U.N. Security Council later in February and calling for an U.N.-led inquiry into the attacks, prompting Germany, Denmark and Sweden to issue a joint statement saying their investigations were ongoing.

    Theory 4: The mystery boatmen

    The latest clues — following reports on Tuesday from the New York Times and German media — center on a boat, six people with forged passports and the tiny Danish island of Christiansø.

    According to these reports, a boat that set sail from the German port of Rostock, later stopping at Christiansø, is at the center of the Nord Stream investigations.

    Germany’s federal prosecutor confirmed on Wednesday that a ship suspected of transporting explosives had been searched in January — and some of the 100 or so residents of tiny Christiansø told Denmark’s TV2 that police had visited the island and made inquiries. Residents were invited to come forward with information via a post on the island’s Facebook page.

    Both the New York Times and the German media reports suggested that intelligence is pointing to a link to a pro-Ukrainian group, although there is no evidence that any orders came from the Ukrainian government and the identities of the alleged perpetrators are also still unknown.

    Podolyak, Zelenskyy’s adviser, tweeted he was enjoying “collecting amusing conspiracy theories” about what happened to Nord Stream, but that Ukraine had “nothing to do” with it and had “no information about pro-Ukraine sabotage groups.”

    Meanwhile, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned against “jumping to conclusions” about the latest reports, adding that it was possible that there may have been a “false flag” operation to blame Ukraine.

    The Danish Security and Intelligence Service said only that their investigation was ongoing, while a spokesperson for Sweden’s Prosecution Authority said information would be shared when available — but there was “no timeline” for when the inquiries would be completed.

    The mystery continues.

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    Charlie Cooper

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