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Stabilization. Admittedly, an odd choice of words in a year when little feels normal and uncertainty dominates on macroeconomic, geopolitical, and real estate fronts. Yet call me an optimist: I believe we are overlooking signals pointing toward it.
The premise may surprise when recent media coverage has been awash with predictions of Florida real estate’s inevitable collapse, spotlighting several west coast markets appearing on rankings lists, and not the good ones.
Let us be candid. Year-to-date, every market from Naples to Tampa has delivered fewer sales. Inventories of unsold homes have swelled compared to the same period last year. Typically, these conditions foreshadow downward pressure on prices.
Still, context matters. Across the country, values surged in the wake of a pandemic once feared to be the death knell of real estate. Florida, in particular, benefited with home values rising an estimated 60% between 2019 and 2024. At present, equity is unprecedented.
With such accelerated sales and appreciation, demand was undoubtedly pulled forward with prices overshooting traditional benchmarks. Yet homes remain an emotional asset with values often defined as much by perception and desire as by fundamentals.
Today, many reports highlight the unprecedented gap between consumer price inflation trends and home values, or the disconnect between wage growth and housing costs. Understandably, potential buyers are waiting anxiously for a “crash” to unleash opportunity.
In more than four decades in the industry, I have never witnessed a sustained sales slowdown like the present one without an eventual toll on prices. Historically, it’s simply a matter of timing, with some cycles lagging others. Yet this time may prove different, once again because of the basics of supply and demand.
Recent weeks – hardly long enough to declare a trend – have nonetheless shown an uptick in activity along the Gulf Coast. Pending contracts are climbing. In more than one market, the first four months lagged the prior year, but the last three outpaced it. Whether due to buyers sensing leverage, recognizing interest rates will not shift materially in the near term, or simply deciding life cannot wait on global certainty, energy is returning. Mortgage applications are up almost 20 percent year-over-year, and online portals reflect the highest level of home search terms in the last two years. NAR just reported that June closed sales came in above last year for the first time in six months.
On the supply side, patterns are shifting as well beyond normal seasonality. While the first half of the year brought more new listings than last year, since June the reverse has been true. National data confirms: June’s inventory dipped below May’s.
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