Tag: STOCKS

“The Big Cut”

While The Big Short film is a riveting watch, “The Big Cut” may be even more enthralling. 

The Bank of Canada (BoC) made the decision to cut its key interest rate to 4.75% on Wednesday. It’s the first rate cut since March 2020. With about $700 million worth of mortgages coming up for renewal in Canada this year, “The Big Cut” is going to affect a lot of Canadians.

“We’ve come a long way in the fight against inflation. And our confidence that inflation will continue to move closer to the 2% target has increased over recent months.”

– BoC Governor Tiff Macklem 

Macklem also said: “Total consumer price index inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.”

However, in the tradition of central bankers the world over, Macklem was also careful to speak using neutral language, pointing out that the BoC was going to take things “one meeting at a time.” He added “We don’t want monetary policy to be more restrictive than it needs to be to get inflation back to target. But if we lower our policy interest rate too quickly, we could jeopardize the progress we’ve made.”

While the BoC was the first G7 country to begin cutting interest rates, the European Central Bank followed suit on Thursday, cutting its key interest rate from 4% to 3.75%. Market experts are speculating that the BoC will cut interest rates three or four more times in 2024. (There are four announcements left on the BoC interest rate schedule).

The BoC (as well as many other central banks) have taken a lot of flak over the last couple of years. But if they manage to cut interest rates, get the economy growing again, and avoid resurgent interest rates, then they deserve a hand. Such a Goldilocks scenario would certainly qualify as a “soft landing” by most economists’ definitions.

If the BoC manages to slowly cut interest rates, while managing to get the economy growing again—all without supercharging inflation—that would certainly qualify as a “soft landing” by most economists’ definitions. 

Lululemon stops its share price slide, Nvidia skips past Apple

It was a relatively slow week for earnings news, but Canadian retailers Lululemon and the North West Company let investors know how they did last quarter. Note: Lululemon releases its earnings numbers in U.S. dollars, while the North West Company releases its earnings in CAD. You might remember the North West Company from your history textbooks, as the Winnipeg-based grocery chain is significantly older than Canada (1779 versus 1867).

Lulu shared a mostly positive earnings report and saw its share price rise 8% on Wednesday. This was welcome news for shareholders who have watched the stock go down over 36% year to date. Shares of the North West Company were flat the day after announcing earnings that were in line with expectations. (Read more about Lululemon’s earning report.)

Corporations, it seems, are just really, really good at making larger-than-ever profits. There are many reasons for fatter margins. It could be innovative new products and services, lower taxation, decreasing competition, willingness of consumers to pay higher prices, and so on. The bottom line is that the stock market will certainly pull back at some point (as it did this week). And there are solid reasons why companies are worth more now than they were, say, a few years ago.

Stagflation’s disappearing act

Back in spring/summer of 2022, all the “cool” writers were predicting a scary-sounding future of stagflation. We, on the other hand, were a bit more skeptical. We felt that these worst-case economic scenarios were just around the corner.

So, two years later, are we fearing unemployment rates may shoot through the roof? Are we fearing a shrinking GDP? (Gross domestic product, that is.)

Barry Ritholtz doesn’t think so. He’s the co-founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, in New York City.

The above chart illustrates what economists call the “misery index.” It’s a rough approximation of measuring stagflation.

You’ll notice that while things weren’t exactly great in 2020 and 2022, they weren’t historically bad either. Last year was downright tame, and (spoiler alert!) we’re probably in for another not-so-miserable year for 2024.

Note, though, that this features American data. While Canada’s misery index isn’t quite as upbeat as the USA’s, Canada still sits below long-term averages.

Sure, the cost of living is up in for Canadians and Americans. But so are wages. And unemployment in the USA is at 60-year lows. While growth in Canada has been “anemic,” we haven’t experienced the deep recession folks were worried about over the last couple of years. Growth in the U.S. has been excellent. And inflation has steadily trended downward in both countries.

The massive hype behind Nvidia has resulted in a price-to-earnings ratio of over 55x. By comparison, tech giants Microsoft and Apple currently have ratios of 36x and 29x, respectively. Conventional logic says Nvidia’s growth has to fall back into line at some point—but this sustained period of record earnings is tough to argue with for the moment. Nvidia made 18% more money in Q1 2024 than it did in Q4 2023, and it made a whopping 262% more money than it did in Q1 2023.

To put this growth in perspective, Nvidia’s market capitalization has grown more than $1.1 trillion since Jan. 1, 2024. That’s bigger than the entire market capitalization of Canada’s 14 largest companies—and that’s just growth so far this year!

Founder and CEO Jensen Huang sounded appropriately upbeat in stating, “The next industrial revolution has begun—companies and countries are partnering with Nvidia … to produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence.”

Nvidia bought back $7.7 billion worth of its shares in Q1 and announced it was increasing its dividend from four cents to 10 cents per share (on a pre-split basis).

Frankly, I think it’s just a matter of time until competitors start to close the gap with Nvidia and some of those juicy profit margins start to shrink. That said, there is a whole lot of money to be made while that process plays out. Clearly, investors are willing to pay a premium for Nvidia’s future earnings.

Tough week for U.S. retail

Despite last week’s record good news for Walmart, the first quarter was not universally good for big American retailers. All figures below are in U.S. dollars.

All three of these retail heavy hitters cited a stretched consumer as the main reason for mediocre quarterly earnings reports. Target CEO Brian Cornell explained that low sales numbers reflected “continued soft trends in discretionary categories.” Compared to its rival Walmart, Target has substantially fewer customers coming into its stores to buy groceries, so the consumer shift to necessities appears to be hitting it harder.

Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison had similar thoughts on the current retail scene, saying, “Interest rates can go down, but you still need consumer confidence to come up.” Macy’s CFO and COO Adrian Mitchell went so far as to say that its team expects consumers “will remain under pressure for the balance of the year.”

Rainey went on to comment on the state of American consumers. While “wallets are still stretched,” it was also the case that “even the low-income consumer seems to be holding in there pretty well,” he said. He also added that shoppers were still coming to Walmart to buy necessities like food and health-related items, along with less general merchandise (such as home goods and electronics).

Going forward, Walmart is banking for growth on new revenue drivers, such as its subscription program, Walmart+. Global advertising grew 24% in Q1 and will be an interesting supplemental line of business for the company going forward—as it has been for retail rival Amazon. 

In less celebratory news, Walmart has plans to streamline its store offerings by shuttering Walmart health clinics in American locations.

Fellow big box-store titan Home Depot had a predictably-less stellar quarter than Walmart.

Given that consumers continue to cut back on home renovations after the massive COVID reno-boom, it stands to reason that Home Depot shareholders might be in for a bit of a sideways run for a while.

On Monday, the company revealed that while it was reporting its worst revenue miss in two decades, its bottom line was still holding up pretty well. Shares were mostly flat on the week.

Meme stock madness returns 

One post on X, formerly known as Twitter, is all it took to squeeze a billion dollars out of companies shorting GameStop this week.

pic.twitter.com/YgjVqtgcNS

— Roaring Kitty (@TheRoaringKitty) May 13, 2024

For those who haven’t watched Dumb Money or Eat The Rich (excellent airplane flicks btw), GameStop stock is the iconic “meme stock.”

What is a meme stock?

A meme stock is an equity that sees growth instigated by internet memes—usually not based on earnings or value. To sum it up: GameStop is a semi-dying company that appears unlikely to make a profit in the foreseeable future. Consequently, it doesn’t make a lot of sense (according to traditional investing metrics) to pay a high price for GameStop stock. However, speculative bets on where its price could move can quickly make investors money (or make them lose it) quite quickly. Investors who short sell GameStop’s stock are essentially betting that the price will continue to go down. If enough people buy shares of GameStop, those short bets against its share price can cost those investors a ton of money.

Buffett not “uncomfortable” with Canada

When countries look to attract the attention of big financial funds, they often attempt to brand themselves in a manner that will bring much-needed foreign investment to their shores. For example, you might see buzzwords such as:

• Innovative
• Efficient
• Attractive 
• Shareholder-friendly

But given Canada’s stagnating economy, I think it’s appropriate to get excited about this Warren Buffett quote:

“We do not feel uncomfortable in any shape or form putting our money into Canada.”

When Buffett takes the stage at his annual “Woodstock for capitalists” in Omaha each year, the investing world sits up to take notice. So, it was noteworthy to hear his lukewarm notes about Canada, including:

“There are a lot of countries we don’t understand at all. So, Canada, it’s terrific when you’ve got a major economy, not the size of the U.S., but a major economy that you feel confident about operating there. … Obviously, there aren’t as many big companies up there as there are in the United States. There are things we actually can do fairly well that Canada could benefit from Berkshire’s participation.”

He went on to reveal his company’s possible Canadian strategy, saying, “In fact, we’re actually looking at one thing now.” While most other investors are cool on Canadian stocks, it’s interesting to see Buffett warm (again).

Buffett’s last major foray into Canada generated a massive 70% gain in a single year back in 2017 when he invested in Home Capital Group, so he may know a thing or two about making money in the Great White North.

Other highlights from the annual general meeting included (all figures in U.S. dollars):

• Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/NYSE) is currently benefiting from high interest rates, as it sits on a massive cash hoard of $189 billion.

• Berkshire sold about $39 billion worth of Apple stock during the quarter. Berkshire remains Apple’s single biggest shareholder with over $135 billion still invested.
• In the absence of big deals, Berkshire continues to reward its shareholders by buying back its own shares to the tune of $2.6 billion for the quarter. When asked why he hadn’t used the cash to make big, flashy investments, Buffett responded, “I don’t think anyone sitting at this table has any idea how to use it effectively, and therefore we don’t use it. We only swing at pitches we like.”
• Berkshire’s operating profit rocketed up 39% on a year-over-year basis.
• Underwriting profits at Buffett’s insurance companies were up 185% year-over-year to $2.6 billion.
• Buffett told the audience that he had sold all of Berkshire’s remaining Paramount Global shares and was refreshingly honest in admitting, “It was 100% my decision, and we’ve sold it all and we lost quite a bit of money.”

Buffett wrapped up the annual meeting by saying humbly, “I not only hope you come next year, [but] I hope I come next year.” He later added, “I know a little about actuarial tables,” in reference to his insurance expertise.

This insight was made particularly relevant given the absence of long-time friend and partner Charlie Munger at this year’s event. Munger passed away at age 99 in November 2023.

Oil sands producers await TMX price bump

Diluted bitumen started flowing through the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline on Wednesday (even at a brisk walking pace, it’ll take weeks to reach its destination). This is raising hopes that at last Canada’s oil sands producers will be able to narrow the discount paid by a now-larger cohort of refiners for their product. Meanwhile, two of the largest shippers on the pipeline reported first-quarter earnings sans that hoped-for revenue bump.

Cenovus output and profits both surprised on the upside, and the company further sweetened the pot by hiking its base dividend by 29% and announcing a variable dividend of 13.5¢ a share for this quarter. Production for the quarter exceeded 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. At the same time the company modestly reduced its overall debt level.

Results for Canadian Natural Resources  suffered from lower-than-expected production and realized prices, especially on the natural gas side. Output came in at 1.33 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Amazon, Apple still magnificent

Two more technology mega-caps reported first-quarter results this week, helping keep the Magnificent 7 bandwagon rolling.

Amazon reported continued strong demand for its Web Services, as corporate customers signed longer-term deals with bigger commitments. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) components added to the overall spend, the company said. Advertising revenue also enjoyed strong growth, although there are signs consumers are turning more cautious with retail spending. Following the earnings release, the stock rose 3% Wednesday morning. 

Amazon rival Walmart, meanwhile, opted to close 51 health clinics at U.S. stores and discontinue its virtual health services, the company announced Tuesday. It blamed high operating costs and “a challenging reimbursement environment” for poor profitability in the division first launched in 2020.

Apple’s revenues fell less than expected and earnings surpassed Wall Street estimates. The company also said it would boost its dividend to 25¢ a share and authorize $110 billion worth of share buybacks. Services revenue grew to nearly $24 billion, offsetting declines in sales of iPhones and other devices. Sales fell 8% in Greater China (including Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong), but that drop-off was not as severe as analysts anticipated. Apple shares surged nearly 6% before markets opened Friday, and more than a dozen analysts raised their target price on Apple.

Tipping on fast food

There’s no accounting for taste as fast-food purveyors moved in divergent ways in the first quarter; some were squeezed between cost inflation and consumer austerity while others continued to super-size their sales.