The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 3.8% in the first six months of the year, lagging way behind the Nasdaq, up 18.1%, and the S&P 500, which jumped 14.5% — as investors plowed into artificial intelligence-related stocks.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
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What you need to know today
Dow lags tech rally
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 3.8% in the first six months of the year, lagging way behind the Nasdaq, up 18.1%, and the S&P 500, which jumped 14.5% — as investors plowed into artificial intelligence-related stocks. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs before pulling back. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose as investors digested the latest inflation data. U.S. oil prices rose for the third straight week amid fears of a war between Israel and the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah.
Boeing ‘guilty plea’
U.S. prosecutors plan to seek a guilty plea from Boeing over a charge related to two fatal 737 Max crashes in 2018 and 2019, attorneys for the victims’ family members said. The Justice Department is reviewing whether Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that shielded the company from federal charges. Boeing agreed then to pay a $2.5 billion penalty for a conspiracy charge tied to the crashes. The DOJ revisited the agreement after a door panel blew out of a new 737 Max 9 in January, sparking a new safety crisis.
Under fire
Nike CEO John Donahoe faces growing discontent as the company’s stock plummeted 20% on Friday, its worst day since 1980, after forecasting a significant decline in sales. As Wall Street digested the dismal outlook from the world’s largest sportswear company, at least six investment banks downgraded Nike’s stock. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Stifel took it a step further, specifically calling the company’s management into question.
Bitcoin windfall
Mt. Gox, a bankrupt Japanese bitcoin exchange, is set to repay creditors nearly $9 billion worth of Bitcoin following a 2011 hack. The court-appointed trustee overseeing the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings said distributions to the firm’s roughly 20,000 creditors would begin this month. The payout is likely to be a windfall for those who waited a decade, with Bitcoin’s value surging from around $600 in 2014 to over $60,000 today. One claimant, Gregory Greene, could potentially receive $2.5 million for his $25,000 investment.
Inflation cooling
A key inflation measure, watched closely by the Federal Reserve, slowed to its lowest annual rate in over three years in May, with the core personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.6% from a year ago. “This is just additional news that monetary policy is working, inflation is gradually cooling,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin during a “Squawk Box” interview. “That’s a relief for businesses and households who have been struggling with persistently high inflation. It’s good news for how policy is working.”
[PRO] Rally will broaden
The tech sector has driven market performance in 2024, with the S&P 500 tech group up 28% and Nvidia soaring 149%, while small-caps have lagged. Oppenheimer’s chief market strategist John Stoltzfus believes the rally will broaden. CNBC’s Lisa Kailai Han looks at the reasons behind his call.
The bottom line
The New York Times editorial board has lost faith in President Joe Biden, calling for him to step aside. Iranians will need another go at electing a new president, French voters cast their votes in the first round of snap elections that saw big gains for Marie Le Pen's far-right party and Brits will go to the polls on Thursday.
It's a busy political environment for markets to navigate. Wall Street has shown remarkable resilience thanks to the AI-powered rally in the first half of the year, which has seen the Nasdaq soar 18% so far. Nvidia is up almost 150%. There could be more to come; Bank of America believes Nvidia and Apple could still deliver "superior returns."
While one of the biggest bulls on the Street expects the rally to broaden away from the megacaps, Wall Street wasn't feeling any love for Nike's CEO. The company had its worst day of trading since its IPO in December 1980, losing $28 billion in market cap on Friday after slashing its sales forecasts.
John Donahoe was brought in from eBay to transform the athletic apparel giant's digital channels. The company ditched its retail partners, became too dependent on its aging sneaker ranges and lost ground to new contenders Hoka and On. It'll certainly make an interesting case study for MBA programs for all the wrong reasons. As Wall Street questioned Donahoe's position, he still had the approval of its founder.
Friday also saw the Fed's favored inflation measure come in line with expectations, raising the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year.
"I really think the Fed should tee up a cut at the July 31 meeting, confirm it at Jackson Hole in August and do it in September," Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." He added that one or maybe one-and-a-half rate cuts have already been priced in.
"I actually think there will be more because there might be a little bit more softness in the economy and better inflation numbers, both of those feeding better rates," he continued. Siegel also said it is "hard to say" where the bull market's trajectory currently stands.
In a four-day trading week — markets are closed for the July 4 Independence Day holiday — the big economic number to watch is the June jobless data on Friday. CNBC's Sarah Min has more on what to expect.
— CNBC's Lisa Kailai Han, Yun Li, Jeff Cox, Leslie Josephs, Gabrielle Fonrouge, Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans, Spencer Kimball, Ryan Browne and MacKenzie Sigalos contributed to this report.
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