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Tag: South Korea

  • Seoul: North Korean hackers stole $1.2B in virtual assets

    Seoul: North Korean hackers stole $1.2B in virtual assets

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    South Korea’s spy agency says North Korean hackers have stolen an estimated 1.5 trillion won ($1.2 billion) in cryptocurrency and other virtual assets in the past five years, more than half of it this year alone

    SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean hackers have stolen an estimated 1.5 trillion won ($1.2 billion) in cryptocurrency and other virtual assets in the past five years, more than half of it this year alone, South Korea’s spy agency said Thursday.

    Experts and officials say North Korea has turned to crypto hacking and other illicit cyber activities as a source of badly needed foreign currency to support its fragile economy and fund its nuclear program following harsh U.N. sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic.

    South Korea’s main spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, said North Korea’s capacity to steal digital assets is considered among the best in the world because of the country’s focus on cybercrimes since U.N. economic sanctions were toughened in 2017 in response to its nuclear and missile tests.

    The U.N. sanctions imposed in 2016-17 ban key North Korean exports such as coal, textiles and seafood and also led member states to repatriate North Korean overseas workers. Its economy suffered further setbacks after it imposed some of the world’s most draconian restrictions against the pandemic.

    The NIS said state-sponsored North Korean hackers are estimated to have stolen 1.5 trillion won ($1.2 billion) in virtual assets around the world since 2017, including about 800 billion won ($626 million) this year alone. It said more than 100 billion won ($78 million) of the total came from South Korea.

    It said North Korean hackers are expected to conduct more cyberattacks next year to steal advanced South Korean technologies and confidential information on South Korean foreign policy and national security.

    Earlier this month, senior diplomats from the United States, South Korea and Japan agreed to increase efforts to curb illegal North Korean cyber activities. In February, a panel of U.N. experts said North Korea was continuing to steal hundreds of millions of dollars from financial institutions and cryptocurrency firms and exchanges.

    Despite its economic difficulties, North Korea has carried out a record number or missile tests this year in what some experts say is an attempt to modernize its arsenal and boost its leverage in future negotiations with its rivals to win sanctions relief and other concessions.

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  • Nuclear fusion: The one relationship Russia and the West just can’t break

    Nuclear fusion: The one relationship Russia and the West just can’t break

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    SAINT-PAUL-LEZ-DURANCE, France — Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has ripped apart Moscow’s ties with the EU and the U.S. on everything from energy to trade to travel — but there’s one partnership they can’t escape.

    Tucked away in a quiet sun-soaked corner of southern France, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) — an effort to harness the power of nuclear fusion to unleash vast amounts of clean energy — continues to purr along with the participation of Russian scientists and Russian technology.

    Earlier this month, scientists at ITER hailed a major breakthrough announced by the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, which said it had overcome a major barrier — producing more energy from a fusion experiment than was put in.

    The 35-nation ITER — born out of U.S. President Ronald Reagan’s and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s 1985 meeting after decades of Cold War tensions — has no way of removing a member gone rogue; there’s no path to kicking Russia out of the experiment without torpedoing the entire scheme.

    The €44 billion project aims to test nuclear fusion — a process occurring in the center of stars — as a viable source of carbon-free energy that’s minimally radioactive. By injecting hot plasma that reaches 150 million degrees Celsius into a device and confining it with magnetic fields, hydrogen nuclei fuse into a helium nucleus and additional neutrons, releasing huge amounts of energy.

    The EU shoulders around half of ITER’s costs and manages its participation through the bloc’s Barcelona-based Fusion 4 Europe (F4E) agency; India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. each have a roughly 9 percent share.

    As an active participant in ITER, Russia still has around 50 staff, including engineers, working onsite.

    Flags of participant nations fly outside the ITER complex | Photo by Victor Jack/POLITICO

    Immediately after Moscow launched its full-scale assault on Ukraine in February, the project was left in a tight spot, especially as Russian government representatives form part of the high-level decision-making board, the ITER Council, alongside their European and American counterparts.

    “It’s a difficult balance between condemning a member and facing the consequences for the project,” said ITER Communication Officer Sabina Griffith, who adds that there were initially intensive discussions about how to respond. Staff even briefly discussed putting a banner on the project’s website condemning the war, before scrapping the idea.

    Even if “the organization itself is apolitical … many people were questioning” what to do after the invasion began, according to ITER’s chief engineer Alain Bécoulet, who added that there was “a lot of sadness” among the staff.

    “The political situation so far is stable, [with] all members … declaring that they want to continue to work together,” he said, adding that the first ITER Council meeting after the invasion in June was “very constructive.”

    ITER Council members again “reaffirmed their strong belief in the value of the ITER mission” when they met at the site for their latest gathering in October.

    The experiment — over budget and over deadline — has already had its fair share of controversies. France’s nuclear safety authority in January suspended the assembly of the fusion reactor over safety concerns. F4E has been plagued by accusations of a high-pressure and overwork culture that critics have linked to at least one suicide.

    Vladimir Tronza | Photo by Victor Jack/POLITICO

    Unlike Geneva-based particle physics laboratory CERN — a collaborative research center that suspended its ties with Russia after the war began — ITER is an international agreement like the U.N., making it hard to suspend Moscow, said Bécoulet.

    That’s because up to 90 percent of the funding comes not in the form of cash but “in-kind” contributions of equipment, with participant countries each manufacturing a one-of-a-kind bespoke piece of the overall reactor that is then put together like a giant puzzle.

    While the set-up was designed to create specialized fusion expertise across the world and stimulate domestic manufacturing, it now means that if one member doesn’t deliver a part, the entire project could collapse, wasting billions.

    Even if they wanted to, countries couldn’t formally kick Russia out of the project, as there’s no clause in ITER’s constitution that would allow them to do so — instead, every other country would have to pull out.

    Going nuclear

    But that doesn’t mean the project hasn’t been impacted by Russia’s war.

    For one, Western sanctions and Moscow’s counter-sanctions have made it a minefield to procure Russian-made parts, according to Bécoulet.

    “It turns out 2022 is one very important year in terms of Russian deliveries” for the project, he said, with Moscow producing crucial parts including busbars — aluminum bars feeding the reactor with a huge electric current — and a 200-ton ring-shaped magnet that shapes the plasma and keeps it suspended in the reactor, called a poloidal field coil.

    Transporting the busbars by truck and the field coil — which is on its way from St. Petersburg to Marseille — by ship required “more paperwork, more justification to explain to the various European countries that no, we are not subject to sanctions — we have derogations,” he said. The “painful” process delayed deliveries by up to two months, he added.

    It also left Russian staff in the lurch, including Moscow-born assembly engineer Vladimir Tronza, who’s worked onsite since 2016.

    “In the beginning, everyone was like, ‘What’s going to happen? Should we look for another job? Should we pack and go back?’” he said, adding that Russian staff members were initially concerned that Moscow would exit the project.

    But Tronza said he hasn’t heard of Russian staff going home, with the “majority not interested to go back” given many have settled in southeastern France.

    “Collaboration is important — it’s important to keep the ties and … talk,” he said, adding that the project is “a global good.”

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  • North Korea claims significant progress toward developing spy satellite

    North Korea claims significant progress toward developing spy satellite

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    South Korea Koreas Tensions
    A TV screen displays images showing a space view of the South Korean capital of Seoul and Incheon, left, during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station on Dec. 19, 2022. 

    Ahn Young-joon / AP


    Seoul, South Korea — North Korea said Monday it fired a test satellite in an important final-stage test for the development of its first spy satellite, a key military capability coveted by its leader Kim Jong Un along with other high-tech weapons systems.

    The North’s official Korean Central News Agency also released low-resolution, black-and-white photos showing a space view of the South Korean capital and Incheon, a city just west of Seoul, in an apparent attempt to show the North is pushing to acquire a surveillance tool to monitor its rival.

    The rocket carrying the test satellite was launched Sunday to assess the satellite’s photography and data transmission systems, KCNA said.

    The country’s National Aerospace Development Administration called the test results “an important success which has gone through the final gateway process of the launch of reconnaissance satellite.” It said it would complete the preparations for its first military reconnaissance satellite by April next year, according to KCNA.

    “From the images released, the resolution does not appear to be so impressive for military reconnaissance,” Soo Kim, a security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation, said. “I’d note, however, that this is probably an ongoing development, so we may see more improvements to North Korea’s military reconnaissance capabilities over time.”

    South Korea, Japan and U.S. authorities said Sunday they had detected a pair of ballistic missile launches by North Korea from its northwestern Tongchang-ri area, where the North’s satellite launch pad is located. They said the two missiles flew about 310 miles at a maximum altitude of 340 miles before landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

    This meant North Korea likely fired two missiles with different types of cameras – one for black-and-white imagery and video and the other for color, given that the North’s state media said Sunday’s test involved both types of cameras, said Lee Choon Geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute.

    An analysis of a photo of the launch also showed the missiles were likely a new type of a liquid-fueled weapon that can be used for a military purpose as well as sending a satellite into orbit, Lee said.

    Geon Ha Gyu, a spokesperson for South Korea’s Defense Ministry, told reporters Monday that the South Korean and U.S. assessments that North Korea fired the two medium-range ballistic missiles remain unchanged. He said South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities were analyzing further details of the launches but declined to elaborate.

    A spy satellite was on a wish list of sophisticated military assets Kim announced during a ruling party meeting early last year, together with multi-warhead missiles, solid-fueled long-range missiles, underwater-launched nuclear missiles and nuclear-powered submarines. Kim has called for such modern weapons systems and an expanded nuclear arsenal to pressure the United States to abandon its hostile polices on North Korea, an apparent reference to U.S.-led sanctions and the U.S.-South Korean military drills that North Korea views as an invasion rehearsal.

    North Korea has since taken steps to develop such weapons systems. In February and March, North Korea said it conducted tests to check a camera and data transmission systems to be used on a spy satellite. In November, it test-launched its developmental, longest-range Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon believed to be designed to carry multiple warheads. Last week, North Korea said it performed a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” to be used for a new strategic weapon, an apparent reference to a solid-fueled ICBM.

    Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said North Korea will likely make a proper orbital launch for a reconnaissance satellite probably around April 15, the birthday of Kim’s late grandfather and state founder Kim Il Sung. The day is one of the most important state anniversaries in North Korea.

    North Korea has previously put what it called Earth observation satellites into orbit in 2012 and 2016. Many foreign experts say both satellites were tasked with spying on its rivals though there has been no evidence that either satellite has ever relayed any imagery back to North Korea.

    According to North Korea’s state media, one of the cameras tested Sunday has a 20-meter resolution, which Lee, the expert, said can only recognize relatively big targets such as warships sailing on the ocean and military installations in South Korea.

    Lee said North Korea may be able to covertly get a more advanced camera that enables it to monitor tanks and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets to South Korea. He said such a camera would greatly boost North Korea’s surveillance capability.

    Earlier this year, North Korea test-launched a record number of missiles, many of them nuclear-capable missiles with varying ranges to reach the U.S. mainland and its allies South Korea and Japan. It also legislated a law authorizing the preemptive use of nuclear weapons on a broad range of scenarios, causing security jitters in South Korea and elsewhere.

    North Korea has avoided fresh U.N. sanctions for those moves, however, because U.N. Security Council permanent members Russia and China won’t support U.S. attempts to impose them.

    “Having codified his country’s nuclear law earlier this year, tested missiles of varying capabilities, and made it very clear he has no interest in diplomacy with the U.S. and South Korea, Kim has essentially paved the way for nuclearization,” Soo Kim, the analyst, said. “He’s lent the appearance that the only possible way out of this quagmire is for the international community to fold the conditions set forth by the regime.”

    She said a handful of other high-priority geopolitical concerns involving China and Russia “has allowed Kim to buy time and the grace of the international community to push forward with his plan.” 

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  • South Korea warns of deepening economic slump

    South Korea warns of deepening economic slump

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    Asia’s fourth-largest economy is widely expected to see growth fall below 2 percent next year.

    South Korea has warned of a deeper economic slowdown than expected next year, extending sales tax breaks on some fuel oil products and passenger cars by a few months.

    “Our economy’s growth is expected to slow next year due to the effects from a global economic slump, and the difficulty will be focused on the first half,” Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho said on Monday at a meeting with the ruling party leadership, adding the economy was slowing at a more rapid pace than expected.

    The government is expected later this week to announce its economic policy strategies for next year, which will be the first full-year statement for President Yoon Suk-yeol’s administration since its launch in May.

    South Korea’s economy, the fourth-largest in Asia, relies heavily on exports ranging from cars and ships to chips and smartphones. It is widely expected to see growth fall below 2 percent next year, down from close to 3 percent this year.

    The central bank last month cut its projection for next year’s economic growth to 1.7 percent from the previous 2.1 percent in its scheduled revision, citing falling exports and the resultant reduction likely in corporate investment.

    As the economy has now to rely more on domestic consumption to offset cooling export demand, the finance ministry has extended by as much as six months tax breaks on fuel oil products and passenger car sales beyond their original end-2022 expiry.

    The ministry is due to unveil its 2023 economic projections and strategies on Wednesday.

    President Yoon, struggling against low approval ratings, says exports are the best choice for the manufacturing-heavy country to overcome its slump.

    China, South Korea’s top export market, is facing its own problems as its economy feels the effect of years of strict controls to fight COVID-19.

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  • North Korea says rocket launch was test of 1st spy satellite

    North Korea says rocket launch was test of 1st spy satellite

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    SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea said Monday it fired a test satellite in an important final-stage test for the development of its first spy satellite, a key military capability coveted by its leader Kim Jong Un along with other high-tech weapons systems.

    The North’s official Korean Central News Agency also released black-and-white photos showing a space view of the South Korean capital and Incheon, a city just west of Seoul, in an apparent attempt to show the North is pushing to monitor its rival with its advancing technologies.

    The rocket carrying the test satellite was launched Sunday to assess the satellite’s photography and data transmission systems, KCNA said.

    The country’s National Aerospace Development Administration called the test results “an important success which has gone through the final gateway process of the launch of reconnaissance satellite.” It said it would complete the preparations for its first military reconnaissance satellite by April next year, according to KCNA.

    “From the images released, the resolution does not appear to be so impressive for military reconnaissance,” Soo Kim, a security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation, said. “I’d note, however, that this is probably an ongoing development, so we may see more improvements to North Korea’s military reconnaissance capabilities over time.”

    South Korea, Japan and U.S. authorities had said Sunday they had detected a pair of ballistic missile launches by North Korea from its northwestern Tongchang-ri area, where the North’s satellite launch pad is located. They said the two missiles flew about 500 kilometers (310 miles) at a maximum altitude of 550 kilometers (340 miles) before landing in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. This could mean North Korea might have fired a missile or two to send the test-piece satellite into space.

    A spy satellite was on a wish list of sophisticated military assets Kim announced during a ruling party meeting early last year, together with multi-warhead missiles, solid-fueled long-range missiles, underwater-launched nuclear missiles and nuclear-powered submarines. Kim has called for such high-tech weapons systems and an expanded nuclear arsenal to pressure the United States to abandon its hostile polices on North Korea, an apparent reference to U.S.-led sanctions and the U.S.-South Korean military drills that North Korea views as an invasion rehearsal.

    North Korea has since taken steps to develop such weapons systems. In February and March, North Korea said it conducted tests to check a camera and data transmission systems to be used on a spy satellite. In November, it test-launched its developmental, longest-range Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, a weapon believed to be designed to carry multiple warheads. Last week, North Korea said it performed a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” to be used for a new strategic weapon, an apparent reference to a solid-fueled ICBM.

    Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that North Korea will likely make a proper orbital launch for a reconnaissance satellite next April — probably around April 15, the birthday of Kim’s late grandfather and state founder Kim Il Sung. The day is one of the most important state anniversaries in North Korea.

    Earlier this year, North Korea test-launched a record number of missiles, many of them nuclear-capable missiles with varying ranges to reach the U.S. mainland and its allies South Korea and Japan. It also legislated a law authorizing the preemptive use of nuclear weapons on a broad range of scenarios, causing security jitters in South Korea and elsewhere.

    North Korea has avoided fresh U.N. sanctions for those moves, however, because U.N. Security Council permanent members Russia and China won’t support U.S. attempts to impose them.

    “Having codified his country’s nuclear law earlier this year, tested missiles of varying capabilities, and made it very clear he has no interest in diplomacy with the U.S. and South Korea, Kim has essentially paved the way for nuclearization,” Soo Kim, the analyst, said. “He’s lent the appearance that the only possible way out of this quagmire is for the international community to fold the conditions set forth by the regime.”

    She said a handful of other high-priority geopolitical concerns involving China and Russia “has allowed Kim to buy time and the grace of the international community to push forward with his plan.”

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  • N Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles in resumption of testing

    N Korea fires 2 ballistic missiles in resumption of testing

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    SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea fired a pair of ballistic missiles on Sunday toward its eastern waters, its first weapons test in a month and coming two days after it claimed to have performed a key test needed to build a more mobile, powerful intercontinental ballistic missile designed to strike the U.S. mainland.

    South Korea’s military detected the launch of two North Korean ballistic missiles from its northwest Tongchangri area. The missiles flew across the country toward its eastern waters, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

    It said the missiles were fired about 50 minutes apart but gave no further details, like precisely what type of weapons North Korea fired and how far they flew. The Joint Chiefs of Staff said South Korea’s military has bolstered its surveillance posture and maintains a readiness in close coordination with the United States.

    Japanese officials also said they spotted the two missile launches from North Korea. Its coast guard said the missiles fired from North Korea fell in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Japanese coast guard officials said both missiles landed outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

    The Tongchangri area is home to North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, where the country in past years launched satellite-carrying long-range rockets in what the U.N. called a disguised test of ICBM technology.

    On Thursday, in the Sohae facility, North Korea also performed what it called the test of a “high-thrust solid-fuel motor” for a new strategic weapon, a development that experts say could allow it to possess a more mobile, harder-to-detect arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the U.S. mainland.

    It wasn’t immediately known if Sunday’s launches occurred from the Sohae facility.

    Sunday’s launch is the North’s first public weapons test since the country last month launched its developmental, longest-range liquid-fueled Hwasong-17 ICBM capable of reaching the entire U.S. homeland. Earlier this year, North Korea test-launched a variety of other missiles at a record pace, despite pandemic-related economic hardships and U.S.-led pressures to curb its nuclear program.

    North Korea has defended its weapons testing as self-defense measures to cope with the expanded U.S.-South Korea military drills that it views as an invasion rehearsal. But some experts say North Korea likely used its rivals’ military training as an excuse to enlarge its weapons arsenal and increase its leverage in future negotiations with the U.S.

    The weapon North Korea said it could build with the recently tested motor likely refers to a solid-fueled ICBM, which is among a list of high-tech weapons systems that leader Kim Jong Un vowed to procure during a major ruling Workers’ Party conference early last year. Other weapons systems Kim promised to manufacture include a multi-warhead missile, underwater-launched nuclear missiles and spy satellites.

    The fuel in solid-propellant rockets is already loaded inside, which helps to shorten launch preparation times, increase the weapon’s mobility and make it harder for outsiders to detect what’s happening before liftoff. North Korea already has a growing arsenal of short-range, solid-fueled ballistic missiles targeting key locations in South Korea, including U.S. military bases there.

    The exact status of North Korea’s nuclear attack capability remains in secrecy, as all its intercontinental ballistic missile tests in recent years have been carried out at a steep angle to avoid neighboring countries.

    Some experts speculate North Korea already has functioning nuclear-tipped missiles that can hit the entire U.S., given the number of years it has spent on its nuclear program. But others say country is still years away from acquiring such weapons, saying it has yet to publicly prove it has a technology to protect warheads from the harsh conditions of atmospheric reentry.

    ——

    Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.

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  • Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN

    Taiwan’s military has a problem: As China fears grow, recruitment pool shrinks | CNN

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    Taipei, Taiwan
    CNN
     — 

    Taiwan has noticed a hole in its defense plans that is steadily getting bigger. And it’s not one easily plugged by boosting the budget or buying more weapons.

    The island democracy of 23.5 million is facing an increasing challenge in recruiting enough young men to meet its military targets and its Interior Ministry has suggested the problem is – at least in part – due to its stubbornly low birth rate.

    Taiwan’s population fell for the first time in 2020, according to the ministry, which warned earlier this year that the 2022 military intake would be the lowest in a decade and that a continued drop in the youth population would pose a “huge challenge” for the future.

    That’s bad news at a time when Taiwan is trying to bolster its forces to deter any potential invasion by China, whose ruling Communist Party has been making increasingly belligerent noises about its determination to “reunify” with the self-governed island – which it has never controlled – by force if necessary.

    And the outlook has darkened further with the release of a new report by Taiwan’s National Development Council projecting that by 2035 the island can expect roughly 20,000 fewer births per year than the 153,820 it recorded in 2021. By 2035, Taiwan will also overtake South Korea as the jurisdiction with the world’s lowest birth rate, the report added.

    Such projections are feeding into a debate over whether the government should increase the period of mandatory military service that eligible young men must serve. Currently, the island has a professional military force made up of 162,000 (as of June this year) – 7,000 fewer than the target, according to a report by the Legislative Yuan. In addition to that number, all eligible men must serve four months of training as reservists.

    Changing the mandatory service requirement would be a major U-turn for Taiwan, which had previously been trying to cut down on conscription and shortened the mandatory service from 12 months as recently as 2018. But on Wednesday, Taiwan’s Minister of National Defence Chiu Kuo-cheng said such plans would be made public before the end of the year.

    That news has met with opposition among some young students in Taiwan, who have voiced their frustrations on PTT, Taiwan’s version of Reddit, even if there is support for the move among the wider public.

    A poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in March this year found that most Taiwanese agreed with a proposal to lengthen the service period. It found that 75.9% of respondents thought it reasonable to extend it to a year; only 17.8% were opposed.

    Many experts argue there is simply no other option.

    Su Tzu-yun, a director of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that before 2016, the pool of men eligible to join the military – either as career soldiers or as reservists – was about 110,000. Since then, he said, the number had declined every year and the pool would likely be as low as 74,000 by 2025.

    And within the next decade, Su said, the number of young adults available for recruitment by the Taiwanese military could drop by as much as a third.

    “This is a national security issue for us,” he said. “The population pool is decreasing, so we are actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs.

    “We are now facing an increasing threat (from China), and we need to have more firepower and manpower.”

    Taiwan’s low birth rate – 0.98 – is far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, but it is no outlier in East Asia.

    In November, South Korea broke its own world record when its birth rate dropped to 0.79, while Japan’s fell to 1.3 and mainland China hit 1.15.

    Even so, experts say the trend poses a unique problem for Taiwan’s military, given the relative size of the island and the threats it faces.

    China has been making increasingly aggressive noises toward the island since August, when then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi controversially visited Taipei. Not long after she landed in Taiwan, Beijing also launched a series of unprecedented military exercises around the island.

    Since then, the temperature has remained high – particularly as Chinese leader Xi Jinping told a key Communist Party meeting in October that “reunification” was inevitable and that he reserves the option of taking “all measures necessary.”

    Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force, said that while low birth rates were common across East Asia, “the situation in Taiwan is very different” as the island was facing “more and more pressure (from China) and the situation will become more acute.”

    “The United States has military bases in Japan and South Korea, while Singapore does not face an acute military threat from its neighbors. Taiwan faces the greatest threat and declining birth rate will make the situation even more serious,” he added.

    Roy Lee, a deputy executive director at Taiwan’s Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research, agreed that the security threats facing Taiwan were greater than those in the rest of the region.

    “The situation is more challenging for Taiwan, because our population base is smaller than other countries facing similar problems,” he added.

    Taiwan’s population is 23.5 million, compared to South Korea’s 52 million, Japan’s 126 million and China’s 1.4 billion.

    Besides the shrinking recruitment pool, the decline in the youth population could also threaten the long-term performance of Taiwan’s economy – which is itself a pillar of the island’s defense.

    Taiwan is the world’s 21st largest economy, according to the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research, and had a GDP of $668.51 billion last year.

    Much of its economic heft comes from its leading role in the supply of semiconductor chips, which play an indispensable role in everything from smartphones to computers.

    Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor giant TSMC is perceived as being so valuable to the global economy – as well as to China – that it is sometimes referred to as forming part of a “silicon shield” against a potential military invasion by Beijing, as its presence would give a strong incentive to the West to intervene.

    Lee noted that population levels are closely intertwined with gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic activity. A population decline of 200,000 people could result in a 0.4% decline in GDP, all else being equal, he said.

    “It is very difficult to increase GDP by 0.4%, and would require a lot of effort. So the fact that a declining population can take away that much growth is big,” he said.

    Taiwan’s government has brought in a series of measures aimed at encouraging people to have babies, but with limited success.

    It pays parents a monthly stipend of 5,000 Taiwan dollars (US$161) for their first baby, and a higher amount for each additional one.

    Since last year, pregnant women have been eligible for seven days of leave for obstetrics checks prior to giving birth.

    Outside the military, in the wider economy, the island has been encouraging migrant workers to fill job vacancies.

    Statistics from the National Development Council showed that about 670,000 migrant workers were in Taiwan at the end of last year – comprising about 3% of the population.

    Most of the migrant workers are employed in the manufacturing sector, the council said, the vast majority of them from Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

    Lee said in the long term the Taiwanese government would likely have to reform its immigration policies to bring in more migrant workers.

    Still, there are those who say Taiwan’s low birth rate is no reason to panic, just yet.

    Alice Cheng, an associate professor in sociology at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, cautioned against reading too much into population trends as they were affected by so many factors.

    She pointed out that just a few decades ago, many demographers were warning of food shortages caused by a population explosion.

    And even if the low birth rate endured, that might be no bad thing if it were a reflection of an improvement in women’s rights, she said.

    “The educational expansion that took place in the 70s and 80s in East Asia dramatically changed women’s status. It really pushed women out of their homes because they had knowledge, education and career prospects,” she said.

    “The next thing you see globally is that once women’s education level improved, fertility rates started declining.”

    “All these East Asian countries are really scratching their head and trying to think about policies and interventions to boost fertility rates,” she added.

    “But if that’s something that really, (women) don’t want, can you push them to do that?”

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  • Asia’s year in review: Who had it good — and who had it bad — in 2022

    Asia’s year in review: Who had it good — and who had it bad — in 2022

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    Police officers step into the vandalized gateway to Sri Lanka’s presidential palace in July. The country has been hit hard by an economic crisis.

    Abhishek Chinnappa | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Curtis S. Chin, a former U.S. ambassador to the Asian Development Bank, is managing director of advisory firm RiverPeak Group. Jose B. Collazo is an analyst focusing on the Indo-Pacific region. Follow them on Twitter at @CurtisSChin and @JoseBCollazo.

    As the new year approaches, we turn again to our annual look at Asia’s winners and losers. Government and business leaders in every major economy — China now included — may well hope 2023 is the year when draconian pandemic-related lockdowns become a matter of history.

    In our 2021 annual review, we awarded “worst year in Asia” to Afghan women and girls — a consequence of the U.S. and its allies’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the return of Taliban rule. “Best year” went to Asia’s Cold War warriors, as social media, “wolf warriors” and politicians helped spark a return to Cold War rhetoric amid worsening U.S.-China relations.

    Now, with hopes that Covid is in retreat and that inflation will moderate in the year ahead, we take a last look at who had it good and who had it bad in 2022.

    Best Year: Southeast Asia’s comeback kids — Marcos and Anwar

    Perseverance proved a winner in 2022 as the year ended with Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. of the Philippines and Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia becoming leaders of their respective countries. One salvaged a family legacy, the other moved from prison to power — storylines befitting a Netflix series.

    In the Philippines, Marcos — the namesake son of his authoritarian father — won a landslide election in May for president, despite what detractors see as a family legacy of corruption and impunity. More than 35 years ago, in February 1986, the senior Marcos and his wife Imelda fled to Hawaii in exile, driven out by a People Power Revolution and a loss of U.S. support.

    And in Malaysia, Anwar finally proved a winner in November, shedding the long-held descriptor of “prime-minister-in-waiting” to become his nation’s 10th prime minister. That followed decades marked by smear campaigns, imprisonment and backroom intrigue as the onetime deputy prime minister challenged vested interests with his vows to combat corruption.

    The two now face the challenge of governing and moving their respective countries forward. Stay tuned for the next episode.

    Good Year: Taiwan’s semiconductor chipmakers 

    In a year that saw tensions between the U.S and China reach a feverish peak when U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, the island’s sophisticated semiconductor industry ends the year in a good position. Taiwan’s chipmakers are more essential than ever.  

    Semiconductor chips lie at the heart of everything from computers to cars to smartphones. Underscoring the Taiwanese tech industry’s critical role, a Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)/Boston Consulting Group 2021 study found that 92% of the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity is located in Taiwan. The other 8% was in South Korea. 

    TSMC headquarters in Hsinchu, Taiwan. The semiconductor manufacturer’s products lie at the heart of everything from automobiles to smartphones.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    A rare bipartisan U.S. Congress has taken notice, passing in July 2022 the CHIPS and Science Act, which allocates $52 billion in federal funding to spur further domestic production of semiconductor chips. In December, the world’s dominant chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), announced plans for a second semiconductor chip plant in Arizona, raising to $40 billion what is already one of the largest foreign investments in U.S. history. 

    With numbers like those, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry ends the year on the move, still building ties and winning growing support from business and government in the United States and elsewhere.

    Mixed Year: Asia’s ‘love’ for crypto

    As in much of the world, investors in Asia — once bedazzled if not bewitched by the crypto industry — end the year in a mixed mood. Industry meltdowns have left many, including in government, wondering if the message of caveat emptor — buyer beware — is sufficient, and new regulations loom. 

    The crypto exchange FTX’s billions-dollar implosion set off alarm bells throughout the region. Singapore’s Temasek Holdings, which has written off its entire $275 million investment in the now-collapsed FTX cryptocurrency business, has suffered “reputational damage,” Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said.

    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is led by officers of the Royal Bahamas Police force following his arrest.

    Mario Duncanson | Afp | Getty Images

    Bad Year: Sri Lanka, the (one-time) pearl of South Asia 

    Even amid food insecurity and economic worries across much of Asia, the images of angry citizens storming the official residence of Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the Presidential Secretariat stand out in what was most decidedly a bad year for this one-time “pearl of South Asia.”

    Sri Lanka continues to face a multidimensional crisis. A broken economy, depleted foreign currency reserves, high inflation — at one point reaching more than 70% — and power, fuel and food shortages made worse by the impact of the war in Ukraine, a growing “brain drain” and meager tourism numbers characterize this south Asian nation today.

    Negotiations for an IMF deal remain complicated by large amounts of Sri Lankan debt held so by China, India and Japan.

    By September, nearly 200,000 Sri Lankans had left the island nation, and thousands of would-be emigrants were planning to do the same in search of a brighter future elsewhere. 

    An IMF deal to restructure Sri Lanka’s debt could provide much needed cash and economic stability, but negotiations remain complicated by large amounts of Sri Lankan debt held so by China, India and Japan.

    Worst year: China’s beleaguered, locked-down citizens

    While China has taken pride in an extraordinarily low number of (officially reported) Covid-related deaths, the nation has also become a showcase for the negative consequences of efforts to contain the virus. In what should have been a good year for Chinese President Xi Jinping, he has seen the year close with a wave of Chinese discontent. 

    By year-end, anti-lockdown protests were reported in numerous cities, including at the world’s largest iPhone assembly factory in Zhengzhou, as China’s zero-Covid policy took its toll on the economy and everyday people’s mental health.

    China will come through the Covid reopening, but it's going to be a bumpy ride

    “We want freedom, not Covid tests,” became a common chant of some protesters, according to Reuters, as individuals “pushed the boundaries by speaking for change in a country where space for dissent has narrowed dramatically.”

    The spark that set off the rare protests was news of the deaths of 10 people, including several children, in an apartment building fire in Urumqi in China’s Xinjiang province — in an area that had been locked down for several months. A storyline on social media that resonated across the country focused on the role that Covid controls might have played in those deaths.

    Chinese citizens can take heart that those protests may well have had an impact. The Chinese government has begun to relax zero-Covid restrictions. Still, the nation continues to lag the world in opening and moving forward, and worries continue about the nation’s rate of vaccination among the elderly.

    And so, even as hope has returned for a better year ahead, China’s beleaguered, locked-down citizens take the dubious honors of worst year in Asia 2022.

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  • US military creates space unit in SKorea amid NKorea threats

    US military creates space unit in SKorea amid NKorea threats

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    SEOUL, South Korea — The U.S. military formally launched a space force unit in South Korea on Wednesday, a move that will likely enable Washington to better monitor its rivals North Korea, China and Russia.

    The activation of the U.S. Space Forces Korea at Osan Air Base near Seoul came after North Korea test-fired a barrage of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles designed to strike the U.S. mainland and its allies South Korea and Japan in recent months.

    “Just 48 miles north of us exists an existential threat; a threat that we must be prepared to deter, defend against, and – if required – defeat,” Lt. Col. Joshua McCullion, chief of the new space unit, said during the activation ceremony at Osan. He apparently refered to North Korea, whose heavily fortified border with South Korea is just an hour’s drive from Seoul, the South’s capital.

    The unit belongs to the U.S. Space Force, which was launched in December 2019 under then-President Donald Trump as the first new U.S. military service in more than 70 years.

    The Space Force was seen soberly as an affirmation of the need to more effectively organize for the defense of U.S. interests in space — especially satellites used for civilian and military navigation, intelligence and communication. A previous Pentagon report said China and Russia had embarked on major efforts to develop technologies that could allow them to disrupt or destroy American and allied satellites in a crisis or conflict.

    The U.S. Space Forces Korea is a subordinate of a bigger U.S. Space Force unit established within the Indo-Pacific command in Hawaii last month.

    Jung Chang Wook, head of the Korea Defense Study Forum think tank in Seoul, said the U.S. Space Force was created to bring together diverse surveillance assets including space-based satellites in one organization to manage and develop them in an effective, systemic manner. He said its unit in South Korea would work like a field unit while the other one in the Indo-Pacific Command would be its headquarters.

    “The U.S. Space Forces Korea would maintain, operate and asses related equipment. Simply speaking, I would say the actual U.S. space operations will be done at Osan Air Base,” Jung said. He said the main role of the U.S. Space Forces Korea would be receiving, processing and analyzing tremendous amount of data and information transmitted by U.S. satellites.

    “The U.S. military is faster, better connected, more informed, precise and lethal because of space,” Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander of the 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea, said during the ceremony. “Specifically, the activation here today, of U.S. Space Forces Korea … enhances our ability to defend the homelands and ensure peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.”

    Jung said the launch of a space unit in South Korea was primarily aimed at better monitoring North Korea, followed by China and then Russia.

    The United States and South Korea have expanded their regular military drills and pushed to further bolster their combined defense capability in the face of North Korea’s advancing nuclear program. North Korea has threatened to use nuclear weapons preemptively in potential conflicts with the United States and South Korea, and the U.S. military warned the North that the use of nuclear weapons “will result in the end of that regime.”

    ——

    Associated Press video journalist Kim Yong Ho in Osan, South Korea, contributed to this report.

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  • Jin becomes first member of K-Pop supergroup BTS to enlist for mandatory military service

    Jin becomes first member of K-Pop supergroup BTS to enlist for mandatory military service

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    jin-bts-ap22346208461452.jpg
    Jin of K-Pop band BTS shows off his freshly shaved head on the K-pop social media platform Weverse, Dec. 11, 2022, ahead of his upcoming military conscription.

    Weverse via AP


    Seoul — Jin, a member of South Korea’s K-Pop superstar band BTS, has shaved his head and joined the army. At 30 Jin is the eldest member of the band, making him first in line to put his pop career on hold to fulfil his mandatory national military service.

    A big purple banner was hung near the entrance to the Yeoncheon County military training center Tuesday, welcoming “Jin and every enlisted man” as they signed up for service.

    BTS announced in June that it would pause its touring schedule, leading to a sudden drop in the stock price of the group’s parent entertainment company, Hybe, of almost 25% in a single day.

    A photo posted on the group’s Twitter account showed Jin, with his new regulation military buzz cut, laughing with his BTS bandmates. The accompanying message read: “My brother! Come back safe! I love you.”

    Questions over whether the young men of BTS would be required to enlist under South Korean law bubbled for years, stoking heated debates over everything from the requirement being for men only, to whether the band’s huge cultural contribution and earning power — both domestically and as representatives of South Korea on a global stage — should exempt them.

    After machinations by the government to grant the band a pass drew a sharp rebuke — especially from former members of the military — the Ministry of Defense ruled in 2019 that the boys of BTS would, in fact, have to serve.


    BTS, the Korean pop sensation

    08:22

    Most healthy Korean men are required to serve in the military for 18 months.

    Pop star Psy, of “Gangnam Style” fame, has even been enlisted twice: As he managed to squeeze in so many musical performances during his first stint in the army, officials deemed his national service inadequate and required him to enlist again. He has now completed his second enlistment period and taken his singing career back on the road.

    But there is no guarantee for boy band members that careers shelved for military service will be waiting for them when they return. In the world of pop and popular culture, 18 months is a long time. Being out of the public eye for so long — especially for a band like BTS, which has members of a range of ages, meaning its hiatus will be staggered and drag on for years — can see even the most fervent of fanbases fade away.

    64th Annual GRAMMY Awards - Arrivals
    From left to right, V, Suga, Jin, Jungkook, RM, Jimin and J-Hope of BTS attend the 64th Annual Grammy Awards in Las Vegas on April 3, 2022.

    Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic


    And BTS may have the most fervent group of fans in the world – or at least on the internet. “The Army,” as they somewhat ironically call themselves, replied to the band’s tweet on Tuesday with remorse, lament, and vows to remain loyal to their K-Pop heroes.

    “We will wait for u jin, we love u,” declared one fan under the user handle mia. Another simply posted a short clip of a woman crying on her knees with the word “ARMY” emblazoned over her, in front of a superimposed image of the car driving Jin into the recruitment center.

    It is widely assumed at this stage that BTS will at least attempt to reunite in 2025, once all the members have fulfilled their military service requirement.

    At a daily news briefing, a Defense Ministry official sought to reassure nervous fans about Jin’s safety as he enlisted, noting that some 300 security personnel were dispatched to help control crowds gathered at the site.

    The force, consisting of members of the South Korean Army (the actual army, not the BTS fans), local police and fire departments were “jointly doing their best to prevent safety accidents.”

    Extra Police Deployed To Manage Fans As Jin From BTS Reports For Mandatory Military Service
    Fans wait to see BTS’s Jin join the military in front of the 5th Infantry Division recruit training center, December 13, 2022 in Yeoncheon-gun, South Korea.

    Chung Sung-Jun/Getty


    From Tuesday, Jin will go through five weeks of bootcamp training. It has been reported, though not confirmed by the military, that he will then be assigned to a front-line unit near the tense border with North Korea. 

    CBS News’ Tucker Reals contributed to this report.

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  • BTS member Jin begins military duty at front-line boot camp

    BTS member Jin begins military duty at front-line boot camp

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    YEONCHEON, South Korea — Jin, the oldest member of K-pop supergroup BTS, began his 18 months of mandatory military service at a front-line South Korean boot camp Tuesday as fans gathered near the base to say goodbye to their star.

    Six other younger BTS members are to join the military in coming years one after another, meaning that the world’s biggest boy band must take a hiatus, likely for a few years. Their enlistments have prompted a fierce domestic debate over whether it’s time to revise the country’s conscription system to expand exemptions to include prominent entertainers like BTS, or not to provide such benefits to anyone.

    With lawmakers squabbling at Parliament and surveys showing sharply split public opinions over offering exemptions to BTS members, their management agency said in October that all BTS members would perform their compulsory military duties. Big Hit Music said that both the company and the members of BTS “are looking forward to reconvening as a group again around 2025 following their service commitment.”

    Jin, who turned 30 earlier this month, entered the boot camp at Yeoncheon, a town near the tense border with North Korea, for five weeks of basic military training together with other new conscript soldiers, the Defense Ministry said. After the training involving rifle shooting, grenade throwing and marching practices, he and other conscripts would be assigned to army units across the country.

    About 20-30 fans — some holding Jin’s photos — and dozens of journalists gathered near the camp. But Jin didn’t meet them as a vehicle carrying him moved into the boot camp without getting him out.

    “I want to wait (for) Jin and see him go into the military and wish him all the best,” Mandy Lee from Hong Kong said before Jin’s entrance to the camp.

    “Actually it’s complicated. I wanna be sad. I wanna be happy for him,” said Angelina from Indonesia. “Mixed feelings. He has to serve (for) his country.” Angelina, like many Indonesians, uses only one name.

    A couple dozen fans could be seen as a small turnout given Jin’s huge popularity. But Jin and his management agency had earlier asked fans not to visit the site and notified them there wouldn’t be any special event involving the singer, in order to prevent any issue caused by crowding.

    Authorities still mobilized 300 police officers, soldiers, emergency workers and others to maintain order and guard against any accidents, according to the army. Strict safety steps were expected as South Korea is still reeling from the devastating Halloween crush in October in Seoul that killed 158 people.

    Hours before entering the camp, Jin — whose real name is Kim Seok-jin — wrote on the on the online fan platform Weverse that “It’s time for a curtain call.” He posted a photo of himself Sunday with a military buzzcut and a message saying, “Ha ha ha. It’s cuter than I had expected.”

    By law, all able-bodied South Korean men must serve in the military for 18-21 months under a conscription system established to deal with threats from North Korea. But the law gives special exemptions to athletes, classical and traditional musicians, and ballet and other dancers if they have won top prizes in certain competitions and enhance national prestige. K-pop stars and other entertainers aren’t given such benefits even if they gain worldwide fame and win big international awards.

    “Though BTS members have opted to go to the military, there are still some sort of regrets,” said Jung Duk-hyun, a pop culture commentator. “Those in the pop culture sector experience little bit of disadvantages and unfairness, compared with those in the pure art sector or athletes. This will likely continue to be an issue of controversy so I wonder if it must be discussed continuously.”

    Exemptions or dodging of duties are a highly sensitive issue in South Korea, where the draft forces young men to suspend their studies or professional careers. Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and Lee Ki Sik, head of South Korea’s enlistment office, previously said it would be “desirable” for BTS members to fulfill their military duties to ensure fairness in the country’s military service.

    Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general who commanded South Korea’s special forces, said the government must move to repeal any exemptions as the military’s shrinking recruitment pool is “a very serious” problem amid the country’s declining fertility rate. He called a debate over BTS’s military service “unnecessary” as it wasn’t raised by BTS members, who have shown willingness in carrying out their duties.

    BTS was created in 2013 and has a legion of global supporters who call themselves the “Army.” Its other members are RM, Suga, J-Hope, Jimin, V and Jungkook, who is the youngest at 25. The group expanded its popularity in the West with its 2020 megahit “Dynamite,” the band’s first all-English song that made BTS the first K-pop act to top Billboard’s Hot 100. The band has performed in sold-out arenas around the world and was even invited to speak at United Nations meetings.

    Hybe Corp., the parent company of Big Hit, said in October that each member of the band for the time being would focus on individual activities scheduled around their military service plans. In October, Jin released “The Astronaut,” a single co-written by Coldplay.

    Jung, the commentator, said sold projects could give BTS members much-needed time to develop themselves after working together as a group for many years. But Cha Woo-jin, a K-pop commentator, said it’s unclear if BTS would enjoy the same popularity as a group when they get together again after finishing their military duties in a few years.

    In August, Lee, the defense minister, said BTS members who are serving would likely be allowed to continue practicing and to join other non-serving BTS members in overseas group tours.

    Cha said K-pop’s global influence wouldn’t be hurt much because of BTS members’ enlistments as they “appear to represent K-pop but aren’t everything of K-pop.” Chung agreed, saying that other K-pop groups like BLACKPINK, Stray Kids and aespa could rise further.

    ———

    Kim reported from Seoul, South Korea.

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  • BTS member Jin begins military duty at front-line boot camp

    BTS member Jin begins military duty at front-line boot camp

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    YEONCHEON, South Korea (AP) — Jin, the oldest member of K-pop supergroup BTS, began his 18 months of mandatory military service at a front-line South Korean boot camp Tuesday as fans gathered near the base to say goodbye to their star.

    Six other younger BTS members are to join the military in coming years one after another, meaning that the world’s biggest boy band must take a hiatus, likely for a few years. Their enlistments have prompted a fierce domestic debate over whether it’s time to revise the country’s conscription system to expand exemptions to include prominent entertainers like BTS, or not to provide such benefits to anyone.

    With lawmakers squabbling at Parliament and surveys showing sharply split public opinions over offering exemptions to BTS members, their management agency said in October that all members would perform their compulsory military duties. Big Hit Music said that both the company and the members of BTS “are looking forward to reconvening as a group again around 2025 following their service commitment.”

    Jin, who turned 30 earlier this month, entered the boot camp at Yeoncheon, a town near the tense border with North Korea, for five weeks of basic military training together with other new conscript soldiers, the Defense Ministry said. After the training involving rifle shooting, grenade throwing and marching practices, he and other conscripts would be assigned to army units across the country.

    About 20-30 fans — some holding Jin’s photos — and dozens of journalists gathered near the camp. But a vehicle carrying Jin moved into the camp without him getting out. The BTS official Twitter account later posted photos showing Jin with other members, likely at the camp, with a message saying: “Our bro!! Have a safe service!! Love you.”

    One image showed smiling members touching Jin’s shaved head.

    “I want to wait (for) Jin and see him go into the military and wish him all the best,” Mandy Lee from Hong Kong said before Jin’s entrance to the camp.

    “Actually it’s complicated. I wanna be sad. I wanna be happy for him,” said Angelina from Indonesia. “Mixed feelings. He has to serve (for) his country.” Angelina, like many Indonesians, uses only one name.

    A couple dozen fans could be seen as a small turnout given Jin’s huge popularity. But Jin and his management agency had earlier asked fans not to visit the site and notified them there wouldn’t be any special event involving the singer, in order to prevent any issue caused by crowding.

    Authorities still mobilized 300 police officers, soldiers, emergency workers and others to maintain order and guard against any accidents. Strict safety steps were expected as South Korea is still reeling from the devastating Halloween crush in October in Seoul that killed 158 people.

    Jin — whose real name is Kim Seok-jin — wrote on the online fan platform Weverse earlier Tuesday that “It’s time for a curtain call.” He posted a photo of himself Sunday with a military buzz cut and a message saying, “Ha ha ha. It’s cuter than I had expected.”

    By law, all able-bodied South Korean men must serve in the military for 18-21 months under a conscription system established to deal with threats from North Korea. But the law gives special exemptions to athletes, classical and traditional musicians, and ballet and other dancers if they have won top prizes in certain competitions and enhance national prestige. K-pop stars and other entertainers aren’t given such benefits even if they gain worldwide fame and win big international awards.

    Jin had faced an impending enlistment because the law disallows most men from further delaying their military service after they turn 30.

    “Those in the pop culture sector experience little bit of disadvantages and unfairness, compared with those in the pure art sector or athletes,” Jung Duk-hyun, a pop culture commentator, said. “This will likely continue to be an issue of controversy so I wonder if it must be discussed continuously.”

    Exemptions or dodging of duties are a highly sensitive issue in South Korea, where the draft forces young men to suspend their studies or professional careers. Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup previously said it would be “desirable” for BTS members to fulfill their military duties to ensure fairness in the country’s military service.

    Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general who commanded South Korea’s special forces, said the government must move to repeal any exemptions as the military’s shrinking recruitment pool is “a very serious” problem amid the country’s declining fertility rate.

    BTS was created in 2013 and has a legion of global supporters who call themselves the “Army.” Its other members are RM, Suga, J-Hope, Jimin, V and Jungkook, who is the youngest at 25. The group expanded its popularity in the West with its 2020 megahit “Dynamite,” the band’s first all-English song that made BTS the first K-pop act to top Billboard’s Hot 100. The band has performed in sold-out arenas around the world and was even invited to speak at United Nations meetings.

    Hybe Corp., the parent company of Big Hit Music, said in October that each member of the band for the time being would focus on individual activities scheduled around their military service plans. In October, Jin released “The Astronaut,” a single co-written by Coldplay.

    Jung, the commentator, said solo projects could give BTS members much-needed time to develop themselves after working together as a group for many years. But Cha Woo-jin, a K-pop commentator, said it’s unclear if BTS would enjoy the same popularity as a group when they get together again after finishing their military duties in a few years.

    In August, Lee, the defense minister, said BTS members who are serving would likely be allowed to continue practicing and to join other non-serving BTS members in overseas group tours.

    Cha said K-pop’s global influence wouldn’t be hurt much because of BTS members’ enlistments as they “appear to represent K-pop but aren’t everything of K-pop.” Jung agreed, saying that other K-pop groups like BLACKPINK, Stray Kids and aespa could rise further.

    ___

    Kim reported from Seoul, South Korea.

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  • South Koreans are about to get a year or two younger, thanks to a new law | CNN

    South Koreans are about to get a year or two younger, thanks to a new law | CNN

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    Seoul, South Korea
    CNN
     — 

    South Koreans are about to get a year or two younger, thanks to a new law passed on Thursday that aims to standardize how age is calculated in the country.

    At present it’s common for South Koreans to have not just one age, but three – an “international age,” a “Korean age” and a “calendar age.”

    But to end confusion, the country’s parliament has decreed that from June 2023 all official documents must use the standard “international age.”

    That move, which follows a long-running debate over the issue, will bring the country into line with most of the rest of the world and cut down on legal discrepancies that arise from the use of three different systems.

    In South Korea, a person’s “international age” refers to the number of years since they were born, and starts at zero – the same system used in most other countries.

    But when asked their age in informal settings, most South Koreans will answer with their “Korean age,” which could be one or even two years older than their “international age.”

    Under this system, babies are considered a year old on the day they’re born, with a year added every January 1.

    In some circumstances, South Koreans also use their “calendar age” – a kind of mash-up between international and Korean age – which consider babies as zero years old the day they’re born and adds a year to their age every January 1.

    Take “Gangnam Style” singer Psy, for example. Born on December 31, 1977, he is considered 44 by international age; 45 by calendar year age; and 46 by Korean age.

    If this sounds confusing, it is, with daily life in the country often switching between the hodgepodge of different systems.

    Most people use Korean age, which has its roots in China, in everyday life and social scenarios, while international age is more often used for legal and official matters – for instance, when dealing with civil laws.

    However, some laws – including those surrounding the legal ages for drinking, smoking, and military conscription – use calendar year age.

    The law passed Thursday will standardize the use of international age across all “judicial and administrative areas,” according to the parliament website and documents related to the bill.

    “The state and local governments shall encourage citizens to use their ‘international age’ and conduct necessary promotion for that,” it says.

    The decision is the result of years of campaigning by lawmakers fed up with the multiple systems.

    “The revision is aimed at reducing unnecessary socio-economic costs because legal and social disputes as well as confusion persist due to the different ways of calculating age,” Yoo Sang-bum of the ruling People Power Party told parliament, according to Reuters.

    Another bill introduced by lawmaker Hwang Ju-hong in 2019 argued that apart from sowing confusion, the three methods also caused conflict by “fostering a culture of hierarchy based on age and avoiding certain months for childbirth.”

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  • South Korea’s truth commission to probe foreign adoptions

    South Korea’s truth commission to probe foreign adoptions

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    SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission will investigate the cases of dozens of South Korean adoptees in Europe and the United States who suspect their origins were falsified or obscured during a child export frenzy in the mid- to late-1900s.

    The decision Thursday opens what could be South Korea’s most far-reaching inquiry into foreign adoptions yet. Frustration over broken family connections and laundered child statuses and identities grew and demanded government attention.

    The adopted South Koreans are believed to be the world’s largest diaspora of adoptees. In the past six decades, about 200,000 South Koreans — mostly girls — were adopted overseas. Most were placed with white parents in the United States and Europe during the 1970s and ′80s.

    After a meeting Tuesday, the commission decided to investigate 34 adoptees who were sent to Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, and the United States from the 1960s to the early 1990s. The adoptees say they were wrongfully removed from their families through falsified documents and corrupt practices.

    They were among the 51 adoptees who first submitted their applications to the commission in August through the Danish Korean Rights Group, led by adoptee attorney Peter Møller. The applications filed by Møller’s group have since grown to over 300, and dozens of adoptees from Sweden and Australia are also expected to file applications on Friday, which is the commission’s deadline for investigation requests, Møller said.

    The investigation will likely expand over the next few months as the commission reviews whether to accept the applications submitted after August. Cases that are seen as similar will likely be fused to speed up the investigations, commission official Park Young-il said.

    The applications cite a broad range of grievances that allege carelessness and a lack of due diligence in the removal of scores of children from their families amid loose government monitoring.

    During that time, the country was ruled by a succession of military leaders who saw adoptions as a way to deepen ties with the democratic West while reducing the number of mouths to feed and removing the socially undesirable, including children of unwed mothers and orphans. South Korea was a rare country that enforced special laws aimed at promoting adoptions, which allowed profit-driven agencies to manipulate records and bypass proper child relinquishment.

    Most of the South Korean adoptees sent abroad were registered by agencies as legal orphans found abandoned on the streets, a designation that made the adoption process quicker and easier. But many of the so-called orphans had relatives who could be easily identified and found.

    Some of the adoptees say they discovered that the agencies had switched their identities to replace other children who died or got too sick to travel, which often made it impossible to trace their roots.

    The adoptees called for the commission to broadly investigate agencies for records falsification and manipulation and for allegedly proceeding with adoptions without the proper consent of birth parents.

    They want the commission to establish whether the government was responsible for the corrupt practices and whether adoptions were fueled by increasingly larger payments and donations from adoptive parents, which apparently motivated agencies to create their own supply.

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  • North Korea fires artillery again over South’s drills

    North Korea fires artillery again over South’s drills

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    SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea on Tuesday fired a barrage of artillery rounds into waters near rival South Korea for the second consecutive day in a tit-for-tat for the South’s live-fire drills in an inland border region.

    South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected North Korea firing around 90 artillery rounds from a front-line area along its eastern coast around 10 a.m. It said the shells, which were likely from multiple rocket launchers, landed in the northern side of a maritime buffer zone the Koreas established in 2018 to reduce border tensions.

    The firings came shortly after the North Korean People’s Army’s General Staff said it instructed front-line units to launch artillery into the sea as a warning following South Korean artillery exercises in a region near their land border.

    North Korea also on Monday fired around 130 artillery rounds into waters near the buffer zones with South Korea, while accusing the South of raising unnecessary tension in front-line areas.

    The latest North Korean military action has worsened animosity between the rivals, whose relations have sharply declined amid a prolonged pause in nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang.

    The South Korean army was conducting live-fire exercises involving multiple rocket launch systems and howitzers in two separate testing grounds in the Cheorwon region. They began on Monday and continue through Wednesday.

    North Korea’s military said it ordered Monday’s artillery fire after detecting dozens of South Korean projectiles flying southeast from the Cheorwon region. That was the first time North Korea has fired weapons into the maritime buffer zones since Nov. 3, when around 80 shells landed within North Korea’s side of the zone off its eastern coast.

    North Korea has fired dozens of missiles as it increased its weapons demonstrations to a record pace this year, including multiple tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile system with a potential of reaching deep into the U.S. mainland, and an intermediate-range missile over Japan.

    North Korea has also conducted a series of short-range launches it described as simulated nuclear attacks on South Korean and U.S. targets in an angry reaction to an expansion of joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises that North Korea views as rehearsals for a potential invasion.

    Experts say North Korea hopes to negotiate economic and security concessions from a position of strength and force the United States to accept it as a nuclear power. South Korean officials have said North Korea might up the ante soon by conducting its first nuclear test since 2017.

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  • S. Korea says N. Korea fired artillery rounds near border

    S. Korea says N. Korea fired artillery rounds near border

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    FILE – A TV screen shows a file image of North Korea’s military exercise during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2022. South Korea’s military says North Korea has fired around 130 suspected artillery rounds Monday, Dec. 5, 2022, in waters near the rivals’ western and eastern sea borders in another display of belligerence. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, File)

    The Associated Press

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  • Seoul arrests ex-top security official over border killing

    Seoul arrests ex-top security official over border killing

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    SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s former national security director was arrested Saturday over a suspected cover-up surrounding North Korea’s killing of a South Korean fisheries official near the rivals’ sea boundary in 2020.

    Suh Hoon’s arrest early Saturday came as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative government investigates his liberal predecessor’s handling of that killing and another border incident the same year, cases that prompted criticism Seoul was desperately trying to appease the North to improve relations.

    Former President Moon Jae-in, who staked his single-term on inter-Korean rapprochement before leaving office in May, has reacted angrily to the investigation into Suh’s actions. Moon issued a statement this week accusing Yoon’s government of raising groundless allegations and politicizing sensitive security matters.

    Judge Kim Jeong-min of the Seoul Central District Court granted prosecutor’s request to arrest Suh over concerns that he may attempt to destroy evidence, the court said in a statement. Suh didn’t answer reporters’ questions about the allegations on Friday as he appeared at the court for a review over the prosecution’s warrant request.

    A previous inquiry by South Korea’s Board of Audit and Inspection concluded that officials from Moon’s government made no meaningful attempt to rescue Lee Dae-jun after learning that the 47-year-old fisheries official was drifting in waters near the Koreas’ western sea boundary in September 2020.

    After confirming that Lee had been fatally shot by North Korean troops, officials publicly played up the possibility that he had tried to defect to North Korea, citing his gambling debts and family issues, while withholding evidence suggesting he had no such intention, the audit board said in an October report.

    Suh also served as Moon’s spy chief before being appointed as national security director two months before the killing. He faces suspicions that he used a Cabinet meeting to instruct officials to delete intelligence records related to the incident while the government crafted a public explanation of Lee’s death.

    Suh is also suspected of ordering the Defense Ministry, National Intelligence Service, and the Coast Guard to portray Lee as trying to defect in their reports on his killing.

    Critics say the Moon government went out of its way to paint Lee as unsympathetic as it tried to appease a nuclear-armed rival with a brutal human rights record.

    In June, the Defense Ministry and coast guard reversed the Moon government’s description of the incident, saying there was no evidence that Lee had tried to defect.

    Moon’s Democratic Party issued a statement criticizing Suh’s arrest, saying suspicions he might destroy evidence were unreasonable since “all the materials are in the hands of the Yoon Suk Yeol government.”

    “The Defense Ministry, Coast Guard, National Intelligence Service and other security-related agencies have made a judgment on the Western Sea incident based on an analysis of information and circumstances,” the party said in a statement. It called the investigation a type of political vendetta.

    Yoon’s government is separately investigating the 2019 forced repatriation of two North Korean fishermen, despite their reported wish to resettle in South Korea.

    In July, the National Intelligence Service filed charges against Suh and his spy chief successor Park Jie-won for alleged abuse of power, destruction of public records and falsification of documents regarding the two cases.

    The agency accused Park, who served as its director until May, of ordering the destruction of intelligence reports on Lee’s death. It accused Suh of forcibly closing an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the 2019 repatriation of the two North Korean fisherman captured in South Korean waters.

    Critics say Moon’s government never provided a clear explanation of why it sent the two escapees back to the North to face possible execution. Moon’s officials described the men as criminals who confessed to murder and questioned the sincerity of their wish to defect.

    Dozens of international organizations, including Human Rights Watch, issued a joint statement accusing Moon’s government of failing to provide due process or to “protect anyone who would be at substantial risk of torture or other serious human rights violations after repatriation.”

    Moon left office with little to show for his engagement efforts with the North and the investigations into the two incidents have further tarnished his legacy.

    Moon met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un three times in 2018 and lobbied hard to set up Kim’s meetings with former U.S. President Donald Trump as part of efforts to defuse the nuclear standoff and improve inter-Korean ties.

    But the diplomacy never recovered from the failure of the second Kim-Trump meeting in 2019 in Vietnam. Talks collapsed when the sides could not agree on exchanging an end to crippling U.S.-led sanctions against North Korea for steps by the North to wind down its nuclear weapons and missile programs.

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  • Brexit Britain trapped in the middle as US and EU go to war on trade

    Brexit Britain trapped in the middle as US and EU go to war on trade

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    LONDON — Three years after leaving the EU to chart its own course, Britain finds itself caught between two economic behemoths in a brewing transatlantic trade war.

    In one corner sits the United States, whose Congress in August passed the Biden administration’s much-vaunted $369 billion program of green subsidies, part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

    In the opposing corner is the European Union, which fears Washington’s subsidy splurge will pull investment — particularly in electric vehicles — away from Europe, hitting carmakers hard.

    The EU is preparing its own retaliatory package of subsidies; Washington shows little sign of changing course. Fears of a trade war are growing fast.

    Now sitting squarely outside the ring, the U.K. can only look on with horror, and quietly ask Washington to soften the blow. But there are few signs the softly-softly approach is bearing fruit. Britain now risks being clobbered by both sides.

    “It’s not in the U.K.’s interest for the U.S. and EU to go down this route,” said Sam Lowe, a partner at Flint Global and expert in U.K. and EU trade policy. “Given the U.K.’s current economic position, it can’t really afford to engage in a subsidy war with both.” The British government has just unleashed a round of fiscal belt-tightening after a market rout, following months of political turmoil.

    For iconic British motor brands, the row over the Biden administration’s IRA comes with real costs.

    The U.S. is the second-largest destination for British-made vehicles after the EU, and the automotive sector is one of Britain’s top goods exporters.

    Manufacturers like Jaguar Land Rover have warned publicly about the “very serious challenges” posed by the new U.S. law and its plan for electric vehicle tax credits aimed at boosting American industry.

    Kemi on the case

    U.K. Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch has for months been privately urging top U.S. officials to soften the impact of the electric vehicle subsidies on Britain by carving out exemptions, U.K. officials said.

    When Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited London in early October, Badenoch pushed her to rethink the strategy. The U.K. trade chief brought that same message to Washington in a series of private meetings earlier this month, including at a sit-down with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo.

    Badenoch has “raised this issue on many levels,” an official from the U.K.’s Department for International Trade said, citing conversations with U.S. Ambassador to Britain Jane Hartley, with Secretary Raimondo, “and with members of the Biden administration and senior representatives of both parties.”

    The Cabinet minister has also spoken out in public, telling the pro-free market Cato Institute in Washington earlier this month that “the substantial new tax credits for electric cars not only bar vehicles made in the U.K. from the U.S. market, but also affect vehicles made in the U.S. by U.K. manufacturers.”

    U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

    Badenoch’s comments echo concerns raised by both British automotive lobby group the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), and by Jaguar Land Rover, in comments filed with the U.S. Treasury Department.

    The SMMT warned that Biden’s green vehicle package has several “elements of concern that risk creating an uneven competitive environment, with U.K.-based manufacturers and suppliers potentially penalised.” The lobby group is taking aim at the credit scheme’s requirement for green vehicles to be built in North America, with significant subsidies available only if critical minerals are sourced from the U.S. or a U.S. ally.

    In response to Washington’s plans, the EU is preparing what could amount to billions in subsidies for its own industries hit by the U.S. law, which also offers tax breaks to boost American green businesses such as solar panel manufacturers. Britain faces being squeezed in both markets, while lacking any say in whatever response Brussels decides.

    Protectionism that impacts like-minded allies “isn’t the answer to the geopolitical challenges we face,” the British trade department official warned, adding “there is a serious risk” the law disrupts “vital” global supply chains of batteries and electric vehicles.

    The conversations Badenoch had this month in Washington were “reassuring,” the official added. “But it’s for them to address and find solutions.”

    ‘Ton of work to do’

    Yet others believe Badenoch will have a hard time getting her colleagues in the U.S. — now cooling on a much-touted bilateral trade deal — to take action. “The U.S. is minimally focused on how any of their policies are going to impact the U.K.,” admitted a U.S.-based representative of a major business group.

    While Britain and the U.S. are “very close allies”, they added, those in Washington “just don’t really view the U.K. as an interesting trade partner and market right now.” The U.S. is more focused, they noted, on pushing back against China, meaning Badenoch has “a ton of work to do” getting the administration to soften the IRA.

    Nevertheless the U.S. is still working out how its law will actually be implemented, the business figure said, and is assembling a working group on how the IRA impacts trade allies. This has the potential, they added, to “alleviate a lot of the concerns coming out of the U.K.”

    Late Tuesday evening, the SMMT called on the British government to provide greater domestic support for the sector as it prepares to ramp up its own electric vehicle production. The group wants an extension past April on domestic support for firms’ energy costs; a boost to government investment in green energy sources; and a speedier national rollout of charging infrastructure and staff training.

    In the meantime, Britain’s options appear limited.

    Newly manufactured Land Rover and Range Rover vehicles parked and waiting to be loaded for export | Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images

    The U.K. “could consider legal action” and haul the U.S. before the World Trade Organization or challenge the EU through provisions in the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement, said Lowe of consultancy Flint. “But — to be blunt — neither of them care what we have to say.”

    Anna Jerzewska, a trade advisor and associate fellow at the UK Trade Policy Observatory, suggested pressing ahead “with your own domestic policy and efforts to support strategic industries is perhaps more important” than complaining about foreign subsidy schemes. But she noted that after a “chaotic” political period, Britain is “likely to take longer to respond to external changes and challenges.”

    And in truth, Britain “can’t afford to out-subsidize the U.S. and EU,” said David Henig, a trade expert with the European Centre For International Political Economy think tank.

    Outside the EU, Britain could work to rally allies such as Japan and South Korea who are also unhappy with the Biden administration’s protectionist measures, he noted. “But I don’t think we’re in that position,” Henig said, as it would take a concerted diplomatic effort, and the U.K.’s automotive sector would “have to be well positioned” in the first place, not struggling as it is. He predicted London’s lobbying in Washington and Brussels is “not going to get anywhere.”

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    Graham Lanktree

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  • South Korea orders striking cement truckers back to work

    South Korea orders striking cement truckers back to work

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    SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s government issued an order Tuesday for some of the thousands of truck drivers who have been on strike to return to work, insisting that their nationwide walkout over freight fare issues is hurting an already weak economy.

    Despite facing the threat of delicensing or even prison terms, the strike’s organizers said they would defy the order and accused President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative government of suppressing their labor rights and ignoring what they described as worsening work conditions and financial strain caused by rising fuel costs and interest rates.

    The order was approved in a Cabinet meeting called by Yoon and targeted the drivers of cement trucks among a broader group of truckers participating in the walkout. It marked the first time a South Korean government has exercised controversial powers under a law revised in 2004 to force truckers back to their jobs.

    A failure to comply without “justifiable reason” is punishable by up to three years in jail or a maximum fine of 30 million won ($22,400). Critics have denounced the law as unconstitutional, saying it doesn’t clearly define what qualifies as acceptable conditions for a strike.

    Yoon said the truckers’ strike is threatening to “devastate the foundation of our industries,” citing delays in deliveries of materials such as cement and steel to construction sites and factories. He accused the strikers of illicit activities such as disrupting the work of colleagues who have refused to participate in the strike.

    “There’s no way to justify the act of taking the lives of people and the national economy as hostage to accomplish their own interest,” Yoon said in the Cabinet meeting. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the government was planning to expand the order to drivers transporting steel and other supplies if the strike continues.

    Thousands of members of the Cargo Truckers Solidarity Union have been striking since last Thursday, in their second nationwide walkout since June, calling for the government to make permanent a minimum freight rate system that is to expire at the end of 2022.

    While the minimum fares are currently applied to shipping containers and cement, the striking truckers are calling for the benefits to be expanded to other cargoes including oil and chemical tankers, steel and automobile carriers and package delivery trucks.

    Yoon’s government has offered to temporarily extend the minimum freight fares for another three years but balked at the demand to widen the scope of such payments. Officials say the truckers’ strike is threatening to inflict serious damage to the country’s economy and logistics systems.

    According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, nearly 8,000 truckers participated in the strike on Monday, and container traffic at ports was at 21% of normal levels as of 10 a.m. It said the strike slowed shipments and deliveries of cement, steel and refined oil products. Lee Sang-min, minister of the interior and safety, said Monday that the strike is estimated to cost the economy 300 billion won ($224 million) each day but didn’t specify how the government calculated that amount.

    The strike’s damage so far has been largely limited to domestic industries such as construction and there have been no reports of substantial disruptions of key exports such as computer chips and automobiles.

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  • NATO’s looming fault line: China

    NATO’s looming fault line: China

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    NATO allies finally agreed earlier this year that China is a “challenge.” What that means is anyone’s guess. 

    That’s the task now facing officials from NATO’s 30-member sprawl since they settled on the label in June: Turning an endlessly malleable term into an actual plan. 

    Progress, thus far, has been modest — at best. 

    At one end, China hawks like the U.S. are trying to converge NATO’s goals with their own desire to constrain Beijing. At the other are China softliners like Hungary who want to engage Beijing. Then there’s a vast and shifting middle: hawks that don’t want to overly antagonize Beijing; softliners that still fret about economic reliance on China. 

    U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith insisted the American and NATO strategies can be compatible.

    “I see tremendous alignment between the two,” she told POLITICO. But, she acknowledged, translating the alliance’s words into action is “a long and complicated story.” 

    Indeed, looming over the entire debate is the question of whether China even merits so much attention right now. War is raging in NATO’s backyard. Russia is not giving up its revanchist ambitions.

    “NATO was not conceived for operations in the Pacific Ocean — it’s a North Atlantic alliance,” said Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, in a recent interview with POLITICO.

    “Certainly one can consider other threats and challenges,” he added. “But [for] the time being, don’t you think that we have enough threats and challenges on the traditional scenario of NATO?”

    The issue will be on the table this week in Bucharest, where foreign ministers from across the alliance will sign off on a new report about responding to China. While officials have agreed on several baseline issues, the talks will still offer a preview of the tough debates expected to torment NATO for years, especially given China’s anticipated move to throttle Taiwan — the semi-autonomous island the U.S. has pledged to defend.

    “Now,” said one senior European diplomat, “the ‘so what’ is not easy.” 

    30 allies, 30 opinions

    NATO’s “challenge” label for China — which came at an annual summit in Madrid — is a seemingly innocuous word that still represented an unprecedented show of Western unity against Beijing’s rise. 

    In a key section of the alliance’s new strategic blueprint, leaders wrote that “we will work together responsibly, as Allies, to address the systemic challenges” that China poses to the military alliance.

    It was, in many ways, a historic moment, hinting at NATO’s future and reflecting deft coordination among 30 members that have long enjoyed vastly different relationships with Beijing. 

    The U.S. has driven much of the effort to draw NATO’s attention to China, arguing the alliance must curtail Beijing’s influence, reduce dependencies on the Asian power and invest in its own capabilities. Numerous allies have backed this quest, including Canada, the United Kingdom, Lithuania and the Czech Republic. 

    China is “the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it,” the U.S. wrote in its own national security strategy released last month. 

    NATO is a wide-ranging alliance | Denis Doyle/Getty Images

    But NATO is a wide-ranging alliance. Numerous eastern European countries lean toward these hawks but want to keep the alliance squarely focused on the Russian threat. Some are wary of angering China, and the possibility of pushing Beijing further into Moscow’s arms. Meanwhile, a number of western European powers fret over China’s role in sensitive parts of the Western economy but still want to maintain economic links. 

    Now the work is on to turn these disparate sentiments into something usable.

    “There is a risk that we endlessly debate the adjectives that we apply here,” said David Quarrey, the United Kingdom’s ambassador to NATO. 

    “We are very focused on practical implementation,” he told POLITICO in an interview. “I think that’s where the debate needs to go here — and I think we are making progress with that.” 

    For Quarrey and Smith, the U.S. ambassador, that means getting NATO to consider several components: building more protections in cyberspace, a domain China is seeking to dominate; preparing to thwart attacks on the infrastructure powering society, a Western vulnerability Russia has exposed; and ensuring key supply chains don’t run through China. 

    Additionally, Quarrey said, NATO must also deepen “even further” its partnerships with regional allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. 

    While NATO allies can likely broadly agree on goals like boosting cyber defenses, there’s some grumbling about the ramifications of pivoting to Asia.

    The U.S. “wants as much China as possible to make NATO relevant to China-minded Washingtonians,” the senior European diplomat said. But, this person added, it is “not clear where NATO really adds value.” 

    And the U.K., the diplomat argued, is pressing NATO on China because it is “in need of some multilateral framework after Brexit.” 

    Perhaps most importantly, a turn to China raises existential questions about Europe’s own security. Currently, Europe is heavily reliant on U.S. security guarantees, U.S. troops stationed locally and U.S. arms suppliers. 

    “An unspoken truth is that to reinforce Taiwan,” the European diplomat said, the U.S. would not be “in a position to reinforce permanently in Europe.”

    Europeans, this person said, “have to face the music and do more.”

    Compromise central  

    Smith, the U.S. ambassador, realizes different perspectives on China persist within NATO. 

    The upcoming report on China therefore hits the safer themes, like defending critical infrastructure. While some diplomats had hoped for a more ambitious report, Smith insisted she was satisfied. The U.S. priority, she said, is to formally get the work started. 

    “We could argue,” she said, about “the adjectives and the way in which some of those challenges are described. But what was most important for the United States was that we were able to get all of those workstreams in the report.”

    But even that is a baby step on the long highway ahead for NATO. Agreeing to descriptions and areas of work is one thing, actually doing that work is another. 

    “We’re still not doing much,” said a second senior European diplomat. “It’s still a report describing what areas we need to work on — there’s a lot in front of us.”

    Among the big questions that remain unanswered: How could China be integrated into NATO’s defense planning? How would NATO backfill the U.S. support that currently goes to Europe if some of it is redirected to Asia? Will European allies offer Taiwan support in a crisis scenario? 

    Western capitals’ unyielding support for Kyiv — and the complications the war has created — is also being closely watched as countries game plan for a potential military showdown in the Asia-Pacific. 

    Asked last month whether the alliance would respond to an escalation over Taiwan, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told POLITICO that “the main ambition is, of course, to prevent that from happening,” partly by working more closely with partners in the area.

    Smith similarly demurred when asked about the NATO role if a full-fledged confrontation breaks out over Taiwan — a distinct possibility given Beijing’s stated desire to reunify the island with the mainland. 

    Instead, Smith pointed to how Pacific countries had backed Ukraine half a world away during the current war, saying “European allies have taken note.”

    She added: “I think it’s triggered some questions about, should other scenarios unfold in the future, how would those Atlantic and Pacific allies come together again, to defend the core principles of the [United Nations] Charter.” 

    Stuart Lau contributed reporting. 

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    Lili Bayer

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