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Note: Exit poll percentages may have updated since this post was published.
The home-state advantage wasn’t there for Nikki Haley Saturday in the 2024 South Carolina Republican primary.
Former President Donald Trump was projected to win the South Carolina Republican primary, besting Haley among most key demographic groups. He won majorities of both men and women and among all age groups.
Trump ran especially well among parts of the Republican base that were predominant in the GOP electorate, including conservatives and White evangelicals. More than four in 10 South Carolina GOP primary voters identified themselves as part of the MAGA movement and nearly nine in 10 of them backed Trump.
The former president also beat Haley among veterans.
South Carolina has an “open primary,” meaning any registered voter could participate in the state’s Republican presidential primary as long as they did not vote in the state’s Democratic primary. Even so, just over a quarter of voters self-identified as independents and just about 4% as Democrats — a far smaller share compared to the GOP primary electorate in New Hampshire.
So, while Haley did well among independent voters, there weren’t enough of them to make her competitive with Trump.
Haley also performed relatively better among college graduates and moderates, polling even with Trump among the first group and handily beating him among the latter. Haley led among voters who oppose a national abortion ban, something that most GOP primary voters favor, but most likely general election voters oppose it.
The former South Carolina governor also won among those voting in a Republican primary for the first time and among those who made up their minds in the final weeks of the campaign. Both of these groups comprised relatively small shares of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.
Haley campaigned on her foreign policy credentials, and she led Trump among voters who picked foreign policy as their top issue, but few voters chose it relative to issues like immigration and the economy, and Trump won the voters who prioritized those issues.
Haley has argued that she is the more electable candidate in a general election, and CBS News national polling shows she fares better than Trump against President Biden. But Republican primary voters in South Carolina feel Trump is their best shot: more say Trump is very likely to defeat Mr. Biden than say Haley is.
Haley has questioned Trump’s mental fitness for office, but Trump’s voters overwhelmingly refute this, and most charge that it’s Haley who lacks the physical and mental health needed to serve effectively as president. As a result, Trump beats Haley on this measure among overall.
Haley’s charges that Trump is a “chaos candidate” didn’t seem to resonate with South Carolina voters either. Though she led Trump by a wide margin among those who wanted a candidate with the right temperament, few voters picked that as their top quality.
Instead, just as they did in Iowa and New Hampshire, voters were looking for a candidate who fights for people like them and shares their values, and Trump defeated Haley handily among voters who picked these qualities.
Momentum shifted toward Haley in the weeks leading up to primary day. Among the fewer than one in five who made their decision this month, most backed Haley. But most of the electorate had made up their minds before February, and they backed Trump.
Still, Trump’s control of the narrative and political agenda is clear in how the South Carolina GOP electorate views both the state of the country and Donald Trump as a candidate. Voters express pessimism, if not downright anger, at the way things are going in the country — citing immigration as their top concern — and nearly half rate the economy as poor. More than six in 10 reject the idea that Mr. Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, and most think Trump would be fit to serve in the White House even if he were to be convicted of one of the several indictments against him.
The exit poll for South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. It includes interviews with more than 2,100 Republican primary voters across 40 different polling places in South Carolina on the primary election day.
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The myth of Trump’s strength as a candidate is taking another hit in South Carolina, as Nikki Haley’s continued presence is showing Trump’s weakness.
Haley gave her rationale for staying in the race:
This has never been about me or my political future. We need to beat Joe Biden in November. I don’t believe Donald Trump can beat Joe Biden nearly every day. Trump drives people away, including with his comments just yesterday. Today, in South Carolina, we’re getting around 40% of the vote.
That, that’s about what, that’s about what we got in New Hampshire, too. I’m an accountant. I know 40% is not 50%, but I also know 40% is not some tiny group. There, there are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative. I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run for president. I’m a woman of my word.
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Nikki Haley refuses to drop out, “I know 40% is not 50%, but I also know 40% is not some tiny group. There are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who were saying they want an alternative.” pic.twitter.com/i6E9gbGrkh
— Sarah Reese Jones (@PoliticusSarah) February 25, 2024
A bigger problem for Trump was that 59% of Haley supporters in South Carolina say that they won’t support Trump in the general election:
That’s a big number https://t.co/e6JAkRThm0
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) February 25, 2024
If Haley hadn’t been in the race, Trump could have pretended like the Republican Party was unified around him, and he could have sold the myth of strength. Haley’s presence and the opposition vote she has put up in multiple states expose Trump’s weakness.
Sure, Trump is winning these states by double digits, but there are a whole lot of Republicans in these primaries who aren’t voting for him.
Every day that Haley stays in the primary is another day that Trump’s weakness is visible.
Trump wanted Haley gone because he can’t afford a long primary race, but Haley has also shown Joe Biden and the Democrats that the Republican Party is not unified around Trump, and there are potential anti-Trump Republican votes that can be targeted in November.
Haley is doing immense damage to Trump simply by refusing to leave.
Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association
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Washington — CBS News projects that former President Donald Trump will win the South Carolina GOP primary, defeating former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in her home state. Haley however had vowed to press forward in the GOP nomination contest whatever the outcome.
A home-state advantage did not translate into a lead in the polls for the former governor of South Carolina, who has argued that Trump faces an electability problem, given his legal troubles, and surrounds himself with chaos. Nearly two-thirds of likely GOP primary voters said in a recent CBS News poll before the primary that they would vote for Trump, with Haley trailing by double digits.
A number of South Carolina politicians, whose careers were once helped by Haley’s support, are backing Trump. The former president also benefits from the state’s conservative evangelical voter base.
Still, Haley predicted it would be a “close” and “competitive” race and has vowed to stay in the competition for the long haul, framing it as a race between David and Goliath.
“Dropping out would be the easy route,” she said Tuesday in a major speech in Greenville, South Carolina, announcing she had no plans to end her campaign. “I’ve been the underdog in every race I’ve ever run. I’ve always been David taking on Goliath. And like David, I’m not just fighting someone bigger than me. I’m fighting for something bigger than myself.”
In the days leading up to the primary, Haley has intensified her criticism of Trump, accusing him of emboldening Russian President Vladimir Putin after the former president said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO country that doesn’t meet defense spending obligations.
“What he just did was put all of our allies in danger and every military service person who’s serving,” she said Monday in Camden, South Carolina. “I don’t know why he keeps getting weak in the knees when it comes to Russia.”
She has also accused Trump of trying to “take” the 2024 election by endorsing his daughter-in-law to serve as co-chair of the Republican National Committee.
In Tuesday’s speech, Haley called Trump “unstable and unhinged,” said he’s “getting meaner and more offensive” and is “taking out his anger on others.”
Trump has returned the jabs.
His campaign characterized Haley as a “wailing loser hell-bent on an alternative reality.” While campaigning in the state earlier this month, Trump mocked Haley over the absence of her husband, who is deployed with the South Carolina Army National Guard in Africa.
South Carolina’s Republican primary is scheduled for Saturday, Feb. 24. It follows the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, which were both held in January, and Nevada’s primary and caucuses earlier this month.
Democrats held their primary in South Carolina on Feb. 3, and President Biden defeated two long-shot candidates.
The dates were each decided by the political parties.
Polls were open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. ET. Voters who were in line when polls closed at 7 p.m. will be allowed to cast their ballots.
Voters can find their polling place here.
Before Saturday, Trump held a big advantage over Haley, who served as South Carolina governor from 2011 to 2017 before joining the Trump administration, according to the latest CBS News polling, with over than double the support Haley had among likely GOP primary voters, 65%-30%. Three-quarters of voters said it made “no difference” that Haley is from South Carolina in determining whether they would vote for her.
Polling before the primary also showed that her arguments against Trump weren’t resonating. A majority of voters didn’t see Trump’s legal fights as a reason to back Haley and saw her criticism of his mental fitness as unfair.
Heading into the South Carolina primary, Trump had an estimated 63 delegates, compared to Haley’s 17 delegates. Fifty delegates are up for grabs in South Carolina.
Nidia Cavazos and Olivia Rinaldi contributed reporting.
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Note: percentages may update as CBS News collects more data.
Voters in South Carolina are weighing in on the 2024 Republican primary election Saturday. Here’s the latest on the factors that went into voters’ decisions — how they chose between former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at the ballot box, according to exit polls.
Most South Carolina GOP primary voters reject the charge that Trump is mentally unfit to serve as president, according to early exit polls.
And South Carolina Republican primary voters are also dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country overall and rate the nation’s economy negatively, according to early exit polls. In fact, nearly nine in 10 of these voters say they’re dissatisfied with how things in the country are going — including nearly half who say they are angry about it. This is currently higher than the 36% of New Hampshire primary voters who said they were angry. Eight in 10 say the economy is either not so good or poor.
Haley has questioned Trump’s mental fitness for office, but Trump’s voters overwhelmingly refute this, and most instead charge that it’s Haley who lacks the physical and mental health needed to serve effectively as president. As a result, Trump beats Haley on this measure among Republican primary voters overall in South Carolina.
These early exit polls show a largely conservative electorate, and one that more closely resembles that of the Iowa GOP caucuses than the New Hampshire Republican primary.
This electorate is more conservative than it was in 2016, when Trump won the Republican primary in this state.
Conservative: More than four in 10 of GOP primary voters call themselves “very conservative,” higher than the 38% who identified themselves that way in the 2016 primary. In 2016, those who were “somewhat conservative” outnumbered those who were “very conservative.” But the reverse is the case in the primary today.
MAGA: Almost half of South Carolina GOP voters identify as “MAGA,” in line with Iowa GOP caucusgoers (46%), but higher than what CBS News saw in the New Hampshire primary.
Evangelical: About six in 10 voters are White evangelicals, about three times as many as there were in the New Hampshire Republican primary. And if this holds, it would be higher than the 55% who identified as White evangelical in the Iowa caucuses.
Independents: Only about a quarter of voters call themselves independents, lower than the 44% in New Hampshire. About 4% of today’s primary voters identify as Democrats.
Race: As we often see with Republican primary electorates, this electorate is largely White. More than nine in 10 voters are White.
Primary results in the South Carolina Republican primary will start to come in after the polls close. CBS News will not characterize or project the outcome of the race before the last polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
This is the latest CBS News’ estimate of how many delegates have been allocated to Republican candidates, based on the results of the nominating contests to date. Heading into the South Carolina primary, Trump had an estimated 63 delegates, compared to Haley’s 17 delegates. South Carolina allocates 50 delegates. Twenty-nine of them are state delegates and the winner will take all of them. Twenty-one are allocated by congressional district — three for each of the seven districts, and the winner takes all the delegates in each district.
There are 50 delegates at stake and 29 will be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Twenty-one delegates will be allocated according to the vote in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. The top vote-getter in each district will get three delegates from that district. The tracker currently includes estimated delegates allocated after the GOP contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.
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President Joe Biden has asked Democratic National Committee leaders to drastically reshape the 2024 presidential nominating calendar and make South Carolina the first state to host a primary, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on the same day a week later, Georgia the following week and then Michigan, a source confirms to CNN.
Biden’s preferences were announced Thursday evening at a dinner for members of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee by committee co-chairs Jim Roosevelt, Jr. and Minyon Moore. The committee is set to meet Friday and Saturday in Washington and is poised to propose a new presidential nominating calendar.
Biden’s expression of his preferences will play a significant role in the process. A DNC source said his elevation of South Carolina to the first-in-the-nation primary has sparked significant debate as members meet Thursday night. But with Biden’s support, this proposal is likely to ultimately gain the support of the committee, though this person emphasized that nothing is final until the votes are held.
If the DNC ultimately adopts this calendar, it would be an extraordinary shake up of the existing order and would strip Iowa of the first-in-the-nation status that it has held since 1920. Iowa has traditionally gone first, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. It would also add a fifth state to the slate before Super Tuesday (the first Tuesday in March) and elevate Georgia and Michigan as early nominating states for the first time.
South Carolina’s primary would be held on February 6, Nevada and New Hampshire would have their contests on February 13, Georgia’s primary would be on February 20 and Michigan’s would be on February 27, according to the source.
Biden had also sent a letter to DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee members on Thursday laying out what he believed should be guiding principles for the committee as it discusses the calendar.
“Just like my Administration, the Democratic Party has worked hard to reflect the diversity of America – but our nominating process does not,” the president’s letter reads. “For fifty years, the first month of our presidential nominating process has been a treasured part of our democratic process, but it is time to update the process for the 21st century. I am committed to working with the DNC to get this done.”
The president wrote: “We must ensure that voters of color have a voice in choosing our nominee much earlier in the process and throughout the entire early window. As I said in February 2020, you cannot be the Democratic nominee and win a general election unless you have overwhelming support from voters of color – and that includes Black, Brown and Asian American & Pacific Islander voters.
“For decades, Black voters in particular have been the backbone of the Democratic Party but have been pushed to the back of the early primary process,” he continued. “We rely on these voters in elections but have not recognized their importance in our nominating calendar. It is time to stop taking these voters for granted, and time to give them a louder and earlier voice in the process.”
Biden said in the letter the Democratic Party should abolish caucuses, arguing they are “inherently anti-participatory” and “restrictive.”
The Washington Post was first to report on the president’s preferred order for the nominating calendar and the letter he sent to committee members.
The DNC earlier this year approved a plan to prioritize diverse battleground states that choose to hold primaries, not caucuses, as it considers which states should hold early contests. Beyond the tumult of the 2020 caucuses, Iowa is largely White, no longer considered a battleground state and is required by state law to hold caucuses.
“There’s very little support for Iowa because they don’t fit into the framework and because of the debacle of 2020. There’s a lot of emotional momentum – it’s not unanimous – but there’s a lot of emotional momentum to replace Iowa with a state that is more representative, more inclusive and instills more confidence and is a battleground state,” one DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member told CNN.
Any new proposal by the committee would have to be approved at a full DNC meeting, which will take place early next year. If a new schedule is adopted, it would be the first changes made to the Democratic nominating calendar since 2006, when Nevada and South Carolina were added as early states. It would also break with the Republican calendar, as the Republican National Committee voted earlier this year to reaffirm the early state lineup of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell, who has spearheaded Michigan’s effort to become an early-voting state, told CNN earlier on Thursday she was “feeling good” about Michigan’s chances and that she believed the state was in a “strong position” heading into the committee meeting.
“The White House knows that we don’t win presidencies without the heartland,” Dingell said. “And we’ve got to have a primary system where candidates are campaigning in a heartland state that reflects the diversity of this country and that they’re testing them because that’s where we win or lose in general elections.”
Nevada has been making a play to move up further in the calendar and unseat New Hampshire as the first-in-the-nation primary. New Hampshire has held the first primary on the presidential nominating calendar since 1920 and that status is protected by state law.
Nevada Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, whose reelection in November was critical to allowing Democrats to maintain control of the Senate, argues her state’s diverse electorate makes it a “microcosm of the rest of the country.”
“If you’re a presidential candidate and you can win in Nevada, you have a message that resonates across the country,” Cortez Masto told MSNBC earlier this month.
The Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ political arm, CHC BOLD PAC, on Wednesday announced it was backing Nevada’s application to host the first-in-the-nation primary.
“The state that goes first matters, and we know that Latino voters will only become even more decisive in future election cycles when it comes to winning the White House and majorities in the House and Senate,” Reps. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Raul Ruiz of California, leaders of the CHC BOLD PAC, said in a statement.
New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen tweeted Thursday, “NH’s First-In-The-Nation primary gives every candidate an opportunity to connect directly with engaged, informed voters in a battleground state – and Granite Staters are experts at assessing candidates & campaigns. I’m proud to support NH’s #FITN primary.”
Earlier this year, the DNC committee heard presentations from 16 states – including the four current early states – as well as Puerto Rico on their pitches on why they should become an early state or hold on to their spot. Amid pressure to boot Iowa from its top position, the Hawkeye State made its case to stay first in the calendar and proposed simplifying the caucus process.
Minnesota is also among the states jockeying to join the early-state ranks. The chairman of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, Ken Martin, sent a memo to DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee members on Wednesday arguing Minnesota is “more diverse and has a stronger party infrastructure than Iowa, but unlike Michigan, it is not large enough that it would overshadow the other early primary states or make it harder and more expensive for candidates to compete in during this critical window.”
Both Michigan’s and Minnesota’s cases were bolstered after Democrats in both states won trifecta control of the governor and state legislatures in the midterms. Primary dates are generally set by law, so state parties would need cooperation from their legislatures and governors to become early-voting states. The Michigan state Senate, which is currently controlled by Republicans, this week already took the step of voting to move the presidential primary up a month earlier to February.
Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, along with other party leaders in the state, sent a letter this month to members of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee pledging to passing legislation moving up the primary date if Minnesota was selected as an early state. The letter, obtained by CNN, argued Minnesota is a “highly representative approximation of the country, paired with a robust state and local party infrastructure, an engaged electorate, and a logistical and financial advantage for campaigns.”
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