Tag: south america

The results of Argentina’s midterm elections Sunday were not widely expected. Pre-election polls had predicted a tie nationwide. Instead there was a clear win for President Javier Milei’s coalition, La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Advances), which secured 41 percent of the national vote. The Peronist opposition followed with 32 percent, while regional parties divided the remainder. Voter turnout was 68 percent, below typical midterm participation levels.

The vote consolidated Argentina’s increasingly polarized landscape, with centrist and third-party options virtually disappearing between Milei’s libertarian-leaning movement and the Peronist opposition. Beginning December 10, Freedom Advances will increase its congressional seats from 37 to 101 deputies and from 6 to 20 senators, surpassing the one-third threshold Milei had set as his minimum goal for victory. “We will have, without a doubt, the most reformist Congress in Argentine history,” Milei said after the results were announced.

With a stronger representation in Congress, Milei can now block opposition bills that would undermine his veto power and threaten his fiscal austerity program. Although he did not win an outright majority, the results significantly enhance his bargaining power. Milei plans to pursue labor and tax reforms in the coming legislature and will need support from centrist lawmakers and regional blocs to pass them.

The turnaround in Buenos Aires Province, which represents nearly 40 percent of Argentina’s electorate, was decisive. Milei’s coalition got a narrow victory in the region after suffering a 14-point defeat there in the provincial elections held last month, a vote that Peronist Gov. Axel Kicillof chose to schedule separately from the national contest to boost his own standing ahead of the 2027 presidential race. That early timing reshaped the incentive structure of his party’s local apparatus. Once many provincial officials had already secured their positions in September, the networks that typically drive voter mobilization had little motivation to replicate their efforts in October. The Peronists blame Kiciloff for the underperformance.

The financial markets reacted favorably to Milei’s victory. Argentina’s country risk index and the dollar exchange rate both fell sharply, while the stocks of Argentine companies listed in New York rose. The outcome eased investor concerns about a possible Peronist resurgence. President Donald Trump, who earlier this month tied a $20 billion financial rescue package for Argentina to Milei’s success, congratulated him on Truth Social, praising Milei as a strong ally and celebrating what he called a “big win” for Argentina.

But the outcome is not being read in Argentina as a full endorsement for Milei’s politics. The past month has been a political crisis for Milei, and some cabinet changes are already underway. Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein and Justice Minister Mariano Cúneo Libarona submitted their resignations; Security Minister Patricia Bullrich and Defense Minister Luis Petri were both elected to Congress.

The reshuffle reflects an internal struggle between Milei’s closest confidants: his behind-the-scenes adviser, Santiago Caputo, and his sister and presidential secretary, Karina Milei. Karina has acted as a bridge to the establishment figures within the administration, while Caputo represents the more radical wing of Milei’s libertarian base. A poor electoral result would have strengthened Caputo’s influence, given Milei’s weakened position in recent weeks. The president’s following appointments will likely settle this internal tension in light of the decisive victory he has just secured.

Volatility is a constant in Argentina. The country’s direction now depends on whether Milei can push his central campaign promises, including dollarization, into policy before the 2027 election, when he will be eligible to seek another term.