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  • Haley, Christie open to raising Social Security retirement age

    Haley, Christie open to raising Social Security retirement age

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    Social Security’s pending insolvency grabbed attention at the Republican presidential debate Wednesday night, with some candidates saying they would be willing to raise the full retirement age for young people just starting out.

    “We have to raise the retirement age,” said former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. “I have a son who’s in the audience tonight, who’s 30 years old. If he can’t adjust to a few years increase in Social Security retirement age over the next 40 years, I got bigger problems with him than his Social Security payments.”

    Also see: ‘Rich people should not be collecting Social Security,’ Chris Christie says at GOP debate

    Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, said promises to current older adults must be kept, but young people just starting out should see higher retirement ages.

    “What we need to do is keep our promises, those that have been promised should keep it,” Haley said. “But for like, my kids in their 20s, you go and you say ‘We’re going to change the rules.’ You change the retirement age for them.”

    Currently, the full retirement age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later.

    Read: Social Security is now projected to be unable to pay full benefits a year earlier than expected

    Haley declined to cite a specific age that retirement should be raised to, but said it should reflect longer life expectancy.

    Sen. Tim Scott, however, said he would protect Social Security for older adults and not raise the retirement age.

    “Let me just say to my mama and every other mama or grandfather receiving Social Security: As president of the United States, I will protect your Social Security.”

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said he’d protect Social Security for seniors.

    “I know a few people on Social Security and … my grandmother lived until 91 and Social Security was her sole source of income. And that’s true for a lot of seniors throughout this country,” DeSantis said. “So I’d say to seniors in America: Promise made, promise kept.”

    When pressed whether he would raise the retirement age, he said: “So it’s one thing to peg it on life expectancy, but we have had a significant decline in life expectancy in this country, and that is the fact.”

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  • Your retirement checklist: 9 steps toward a better retirement

    Your retirement checklist: 9 steps toward a better retirement

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    The U.S. is approaching “peak 65.” Are you ready for it?

    The number of people who turn 65 every day will peak in 2024, and more people will be staring at the possibility of retirement, often without a plan or a roadmap to help them thrive. Given that more people are living longer, that’s a long time to spend bored, lonely or financially insecure.

    Here’s a checklist to help you navigate the financial decisions, legal complications and social ramifications of retiring. Since 60% of workers retire earlier than planned, according to the Transamerica Institute and the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, you shouldn’t leave these tasks to the last minute. Get started now.

    1. Update your will and estate-planning documents

    Your will may be decades out of date and your financial accounts may have beneficiaries linked to a previous marriage. Dust off those documents and get them refreshed as soon as possible.

    “Before you even start thinking about retirement, there’s some housekeeping that needs to get done,” says Eric Bond, the president of Bond Wealth Management. 

    On your immediate to-do list, make sure you have a will, power of attorney and healthcare power of attorney in case you become incapacitated and can’t act on your own behalf. You’ll also need a HIPAA waiver as well as a trust, says Catherine Collinson, the chief executive and president of the nonprofit Transamerica Institute and Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies.

    “There’s still widespread belief that trusts are only for the affluent, but they’re for everyone,” Collinson says. “It’s amazing how small issues can take on enormous bureaucratic proportions. You want to try to avoid that.”

    Nicholas Yeomans, a financial adviser and the president of Yeomans Consulting Group, says to check retirement plans, life insurance and annuity accounts to make sure you have your beneficiaries listed properly. You may have a will, but beware that beneficiaries on such accounts supersede a will, he says. Be sure to name secondary or contingent beneficiaries, as well.

    2. Create a budget

    “It’s really basic, but only 23% of preretirees and 19% of retirees have a written plan. Until you put the numbers into a spreadsheet, it’s impossible to come up with realistic expectations for how you’re going to live your life. Otherwise, you’re just winging it,” Collinson says.

    “Life is much more complicated and challenging. You need backup plans and contingency plans,” she says. “It’s really important to plan for life’s unforeseen circumstances.”

    Bond, meanwhile, cautions that people who retire in their 60s need to realize that longevity has increased and they could be retired for decades.

    “Milk and eggs are not getting cheaper. You have to plan for the long haul,” he says.

    Working Americans think they need an average of $1.1 million to retire, according to the Schroders 2023 U.S. Retirement Survey. Financial advisers generally recommend that people have 75% to 85% of their preretirement income for each year of their retirement.

    Also read: How never to outlive your money

    3. Build up your cash reserves

    Once you have a budget in place, build up cash reserves to cover six to nine months of basic expenses, such as mortgage, utilities and living expenses, Yeomans says.

    “People are either one of two extremes when it comes to emergency funds — too much cash or not enough,” he says.

    And in the years leading up to retirement, Brandon Robinson, the president and founder of JBR Associates, recommends that you work on eliminating your “bad” debt, such as credit cards or vehicle payments. Having a mortgage, however, is not necessarily a bad thing, since a house is generally an appreciating asset, he says. 

    4. Consider hiring an adviser

    “Most people only retire once,” Collinson says. “Financial advisers have the depth and breadth of experience to help. Many workers have a 401(k), and with that often comes access to financial guidance. Take advantage of that.” 

    She adds: “In today’s turbulent economy, the many people who may have felt comfortable taking a do-it-yourself approach may need help navigating uncharted territory.”

    And make sure you meet with your financial adviser on an annual basis, Robinson adds.

    5. Plan for healthcare and long-term-care needs

    Healthcare is costly, and it can be even more so for retirees. It can cost as much as $5,100 a month for a home health aide, for instance, and an average of about $8,000 a month for a semiprivate room in a nursing home, according to the Genworth Cost of Care Survey. Genworth is a long-term-care insurance company. 

    By another measure, a 65-year-old retiring in 2023 could spend an average of $157,500 on health and medical expenses throughout his or her retirement, according to Fidelity Investments, which tracks retiree healthcare expenses annually. 

    Also think about the long-term costs of help with the activities of daily living, such as bathing, toileting and dressing — assistance that is not covered by Medicare.

    When asked what their plans are for if and when their heath declined, 46% of retirees said they’d rely on family and friends, and 31% said they don’t have any plans or haven’t thought about it, Collinson says. 

    “People don’t want to think about needing someone to bathe and dress them. The cost and potential impact of these topics is enormous,” she says. 

    Collinson says it’s important to learn about long-term care — what’s available and at what price. That can help guide your decisions about long-term care insurance, but options in that market have contracted and costs have risen, putting such services out of reach for many people

    Only 14% of retirees are very confident they could afford long-term care if needed, she says.

    “Many people are under the impression that Medicare covers more long-term care than it actually does,” Collinson says. “And qualifying for Medicaid is extreme. It means that you’re at dire financial means, if not bankrupt. And Medicaid facilities have long waiting lists.”

    6. Get the facts about Medicare 

    Speaking of Medicare, it’s important to learn what the program covers and what it doesn’t.

    “There are so many decision criteria about the type, level and cost of care,” Collinson says. “It behooves everyone to understand the Medicare options best for them and review those plans regularly.”

    Also, it’s critical to plan for Medicare when you’re 65, even if you’re not planning to retire until 67 or 70.

    There’s a seven-month window to enroll in Medicare, which includes the three months before you turn 65, the month of your birthday and the three months after. If you miss that seven-month window and you don’t have health insurance from a large employer, you can face lifetime penalties for late enrollment in Medicare. 

    The first step is to contact the Social Security Administration — not Medicare itself — to start Medicare. And you’ll enroll only yourself — it’s not a family plan.

    If you’re getting Social Security and you enroll in Medicare, your premiums will come directly out of your Social Security check. However, if you’re not getting Social Security yet, you should set up automatic payments for Medicare, because your enrollment can get canceled for nonpayment.

    7. Plan your Social Security strategy

    You need to know when and how to manage your Social Security claiming. The Social Security Administration website is a great starting point, but be sure to talk with a financial adviser or visit your 401(k) plan’s financial resource center to get more information.

    Read: How much does my Social Security benefit increase when I delay filing?

    “Ideally, you want to wait until the full retirement age or age 70, which is the maximum age,” Collinson says. 

    Full retirement age is 67 for those born in 1960 or later.

    “When to take Social Security is a major decision that depends on your health, the health of your spouse, your jobs. Making that decision is a big one. Don’t take it lightly,” Robinson says. 

    Read: Inflation is already racing past next year’s Social Security COLA

    8. Consider downsizing

    “Consider downsizing or moving, but take your time,” Yeomans says. “People make major purchase mistakes in the first 12 to 18 months of retirement. But take your time. Consider renting before pulling that trigger.”

    Aging in place is something about nine out of 10 people want to do, according to a survey from Transamerica Institute and the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, but Collinson says people need to prepare their homes for that.

    You may need wider doorways that can accommodate a wheelchair, as well as chairlifts, grab bars and shower seats. 

    “If your dream home in retirement has lots of stairs, know that you may need to move when stairs become unmanageable,” she says.

    9. Retire to something meaningful

    Once you have the financial and legal aspects taken care of, think about how — and with whom — you want to spend your time in retirement. 

    “Make sure you’re not retiring from something, but instead retiring to something,” Yeomans says. “Men struggle with this the most. The average man has no close friends in their life who aren’t connected to work. And so much of our health in retirement comes from relationships.”

    Now read: In retirement, time is short. Don’t waste it on things you hate.

    People often don’t realize what they’ll lose when they quit working: routine, structure, social interactions, mental stimulation and in some cases physical activity, says Robert Laura, founder of the Retirement Coaches Association.

    People also often don’t take their personality into account when considering retirement.

    “If you’re a Type A personality, you may feel out of sorts with endless time. A lot of people don’t critically question retirement. They think it’s golden. But people often don’t want to retire — they just want to stop doing their primary job,” Laura says. 

    Joe Casey, managing partner of retirement-coaching company Retirement Wisdom, recommends talking to people who are thriving in retirement and learning how they spend their time and energy. 

    “People miss the challenge of working. What’s the new challenge that will help you keep growing? Don’t get too hung up on finding a singular new purpose. Try new things. Volunteer. Try several activities and be open to experimenting,” Casey says. 

    Casey suggests mapping out what a typical day or week will look like in retirement and how you plan to fill those hours. Give yourself some structure by having three things to do every day. That will provide you with a road map of how to spend your time but will also give you flexibility to let the day unfold.

    Laura says the newly retired should set 30-, 60- and 90-day goals to create some structure and have small objectives to work toward.

    “People suffer from choice paralysis — they have all the time in the world and so many options open to them. People go into retirement with vague ideas and don’t know where to start doing something, so they never do it,” Laura says. 

    “Retirement is the longest New Year’s resolution. It’s goals you have and never accomplish unless you’re focused. You don’t get extra motivation or energy in retirement, so you need to focus on what you want to accomplish,” Laura says.

    A sobering statistic may spur you into action: The average retiree watches as much as 47 hours of television a week, according to AgeWave.

    To avoid that, start thinking about and planning for retirement with your partner far ahead of the actual date. Learn each other’s goals and expectations for retirement and compare notes. Some adjustments might be in order.

    “What if one wants to sail around the world and the other wants to see the grandkids every month?” Laura says.

    Casey also recommends taking retirement for a test drive by taking a week off work. “You can get a good sense of retirement in a week trial,” he says. “It will show you how long a day can be.”

    And Collinson says to prioritize physical fitness — but don’t forget about your mental health, too. Stay engaged with other people and avoid isolation. 

    Loneliness is as deadly as smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day and is associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular disease, dementia, stroke, depression, anxiety and premature death, according to a recent advisory from the U.S. Surgeon General.

    The takeaway: Make sure you plan how you’ll carry out your hopes and dreams in retirement to make it all feel worthwhile.

    “What was the reason you worked hard for so many years?” Casey says. “It wasn’t to watch 47 hours of TV each week.”

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  • $1.8 million to retire? Are you kidding?

    $1.8 million to retire? Are you kidding?

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    This time it’s in the latest Charles Schwab Retirement Survey. Among 1,000 people surveyed, the average respondent figured he or she needed to save $1.8 million to retire. (That figure is up from $1.7 million in the same survey a year earlier.)

    Touchingly, 86% also told Schwab they were either “somewhat” or “very” likely to achieve their goals.

    Er, no.

    If the numbers show anything, it’s that most people don’t understand math, don’t understand finance and are wildly out of touch with reality.

    Some simple calculations will show that these figures are all wrong.

    First, let’s start with the bad news. There is no way 86% of people should be “very” or “somewhat” confident that they are going to hit that $1.8 million target, or anything like it. Let alone that 37% think they are “very” likely to hit it.

    Median retirement-account balance at the moment? Try $27,000 and change, says 401(k) giant Vanguard.

    Even that’s overstating the picture. The Federal Reserve’s most recent triennial Survey of Consumer Finances says the median American household has $26,000 in total financial assets, including savings accounts, life insurance, 401(k) plan and the like. Among those aged 45 to 54, the figure is $37,000, and among those 55 to 64 it’s $47,000. How anyone thinks they are getting from there to $1.8 million by retirement age is a mystery. Magic carpets? Magic beans?

    Granted, the survey is from 2019, but the intervening pandemic period won’t have changed the picture that much — in either direction.

    It’s not clear from the survey whether those polled included the value of the equity in their homes. Throw that in, and the median household’s total net worth rises to $122,000. Among those aged 45 to 54 it rises to $169,000, and among those 55 to 64 to $213,000. COVID policies helped drive up average U.S. home prices by about 30%, so those figures will have risen since 2019.

    But again we are not nearing $1.8 million.

    Not even close.

    The good news, though, is that you don’t actually need this amount or anything like it to retire.

    Naturally if someone hasn’t figured life out by the time they retire, and they still think that buying yet more stuff is the route to happiness, no amount is going to be enough.

    How much we’d like and how much we need are very different things.

    A $1.8 million balance would buy a 65-year-old couple an immediate annuity paying a guaranteed lifetime income of $9,500 a month, or just over $110,000 a year.

    The average Social Security benefit on top of that for a retired couple is just under $3,000 a month, or $36,000 a year. So in total you’d be on about $146,000 a year. What are these people planning to do in retirement?

    Even with a 3% annual rise, to account for inflation risk, that annuity will pay out $83,000 a year, and that’s for a couple, not just for one person. The money continues until both of you have gone.

    How much do we really need? Well, while acknowledging that each person and each person’s situation is going to be different, let’s do some simple math.

    Actual seniors are living on median annual incomes of around $45,000 to $50,000, says the Federal Reserve. And most of them say they are either reasonably satisfied with retirement or actually happy. So, at least, they tell Gallup and the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

    Meanwhile, a new survey from Schroders finds that the average person thinks a comfortable retirement can be had on around $5,000 a month, or $60,000 a year.

    The average Social Security benefit for a retired couple is $36,000 a year. To bring that income up to $50,000 you’d need an annuity paying $14,000 a year.

    Current cost in the annuities market: $225,000.

    To bring that up to $60,000 the annuity would cost $385,000.

    For $350,000 you can get an income of $18,000 with a 3% annual increase to deal with inflation.

    For $800,000 you can double your Social Security income, bringing in another $36,000 a year — with a 3% annual increase to deal with inflation.

    The cost of housing is a major component for retirees. No, someone doesn’t have to move to Iowa to be able to retire in comfort. But they can move the dial by cashing in their home in an expensive neighborhood — especially the kind of location they may have moved to for a high-paying job or the best schools — and moving somewhere cheaper. Away from coastal California or the “Acela” corridor in the Northeast, a lot of U.S. homes are really cheap.

    Retirement savings generally are grossly inadequate, and many people face genuine hardship in their senior years. And, of course, pretty much everyone could use more money. On the other hand, you can retire in comfort with a lot less than $1.8 million.

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  • The debt ceiling deal: This clause is bad for Social Security

    The debt ceiling deal: This clause is bad for Social Security

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    If there were no tax cheats in America, there would be no Social Security crisis. Benefits could be paid, and payroll taxes kept the same, for the next 75 years.

    That’s not me talking. That’s math. It comes from the number crunchers at the Social Security Administration and the Internal Revenue Service.

    And it explains why those of us who support Social Security should be pounding the table in outrage over one clause of the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling deal: The part where the president has to retreat from his crackdown on tax cheats just so McCarthy and the House Republicans would agree to prevent America defaulting on its debts.

    It’s just two years since the administration got into law an extra $80 billion for the IRS to beef up enforcement. That was supposed to include hiring an estimated 87,000 IRS agents. 

    OK, so nobody likes paying taxes and nobody likes the IRS. Cue the inevitable critiques of an IRS tax “army,” and so on. But this isn’t about whether taxes should be higher or lower. It’s about whether everyone should pay the taxes that they owe.

    After all, if we’re going to cut taxes, shouldn’t they apply to those of us who obey the laws as well as those who don’t? Or do we just support the “Tax Cuts for Criminals” Act?

    Why would any voter rally around a platform of “I stand with tax cheats?”

    The Congressional Budget Office calculated that the extra funding for the IRS would have reduced the deficit, because it would more than pay for itself. But it’s now been cut by an estimated $21 billion out of $80 billion.

    If this seems abstract, consider the context and how it affects you and your retirement — and the retirements of everyone you know.

    Social Security is now running at an $80 billion annual deficit. That’s the amount benefits are expected to exceed payroll taxes this year. (So say the Social Security Administration’s trustees.)

    Next year, that deficit is expected to top $150 billion. By 2026, we’re looking at $200 billion and rising. The trust fund will run out of cash by 2034, and without extra payroll taxes will have to slash benefits by a fifth or more.

    Over the next 75 years, says the Congressional Budget Office, the entire funding gap for the program will average about 1.7% of gross domestic product per year.

    Meanwhile, how much are tax cheats stealing from the rest of us? A multiple of that.

    According to the most recent estimates from the IRS, tax cheats steal about $470 billion a year. And that figure is four years out of date, relating to 2019. That’s the figure after enforcement measures.

    Oh, and the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration says that’s a lowball number.

    But it still worked out at around 12% of all the taxes people were supposed to pay (including payroll taxes). And around 2.3% of GDP.

    Over the next 10 years, based on similar ratios to GDP, that would come to another $3.3 billion. 

    Sure, Social Security’s trust fund is theoretically separate from the rest of Uncle Sam’s finances. But that’s an accounting issue: A distinction without a difference.

    Social Security is America’s retirement plan. Few could retire in dignity without it. Yet it is facing a fiscal crisis. By 2034, without changes, the program will be forced to cut benefits — drastically.

    Some people want to cut benefits. Others want to raise the retirement age, which also means cutting benefits. Others want to raise taxes on benefits — which also means cutting benefits. Others want to hike payroll taxes, either on all of us or (initially) only on very high earners.

    At last — just 40 or so years out of date — some are starting to talk about investing some of the trust fund like nearly every other pension plan in the world, in high-returning stocks instead of just low-returning Treasury bonds. 

    (It is hard for me to believe that it’s now almost 16 years since I first wrote about this ridiculously obvious fix And, yes, I’ve been boring readers on the subject ever since, including here and most recently here, and, no, I have no plans to stop.)

    But if investing some of the trust fund in stocks is a no-brainer, so, too, is insisting everyone obey the law and pay the taxes they actually owe each year. I mean, shouldn’t we do that before we think about raising taxes even further on those who abide by the law?

    How could anyone object? Any party that believes in law and order would support enforcing, er, law and order on tax evasion. And any party of fiscal conservatism would support measures, like tax enforcement, to narrow the deficit.

    And, actually, any party that truly supported lower taxes for all would be tough on tax evasion: It is precisely this $500 billion in evasion by a small, scofflaw minority that forces the rest of us to pay more. We have, quite literally, a tax on obeying the law.

    One of the many arguments in favor of taxing assets or wealth, instead of just income, is that enforcement would be easier and evasion much harder

    Washington, D.C., seems to be a place where people come up with complex proposals just so they can avoid the simple, fair ones.

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  • What’s your retirement ‘number’? How to figure it out.

    What’s your retirement ‘number’? How to figure it out.

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    There’s a lot of numbers to weigh when it comes to retirement—but what’s your number? 

    Working Americans think they need $1.1 million to retire, according to the Schroders 2023 U.S. Retirement Survey, but how does each individual really figure out what they will need in a retirement that could last decades?

    “It is very difficult for someone at 35 to have any comprehension about what life at 65 will cost,” said Robert Gilliland, managing director and senior wealth adviser with Concenture Wealth Management. “You have no comprehension what $100 will buy in 30 years. It gets easier to imagine as you get closer to retirement but you need to start planning.”

    Read: What’s the magic number for retirement savings? Americans say it’s more than $1 million, but most will fall short of that goal.

    “We have people call us on a weekly basis to ask ‘do we have enough to retire?’ Yes, but it depends on what lifestyle you want,” Gilliland said. “We sit down with them, talk about the lifestyle they’re living now and the lifestyle they want to live if working was optional.”

    Start with a budget

    In the information gathering phase, you want to start with a budget. Look at your current expenses for everything from housing, food, utilities and transportation to extras like travel, gifts, and entertainment. You can keep a simple log or use more sophisticated budgeting software, but the key to the process is honesty, said John Leonard, vice president, client adviser with Spinnaker Trust. 

    “Be honest with yourself on what you really spend. It may surprise you,” Leonard said. “And think about your goals or what lifestyle do you want to live? Do you want to travel, move to a different state? What do you want your retirement to look like?”

    By retirement, you’ve likely paid down all or most of your debt and you’re no longer saving for retirement. So that will free up those funds. There will be some reduction in expenses, such as commuting costs or clothes costs associated with work, and you’ll likely be in a different tax situation with lower earnings, said Matt Fleming, wealth adviser executive with Vanguard.

    Plan for the long haul

    Plan for retirement to last several decades and base your budget around living to age 100.

    “You don’t want to plan for the average life expectancy. You want to plan conservatively and plan for expenses through age 100,” Fleming said. 

    Next, look at what potential sources of income you might have in retirement. That includes your 401(k), IRAs, pensions, savings and Social Security, plus any additional income streams such as rental properties, annuities or inheritance. Also, this is a good time to check on your insurance policies. To figure out your Social Security benefits, use the Social Security website at SSA.gov

    “Get to know your inflows and outflows,” said Fleming said.

    Vanguard estimates people should expect to have 75% to 85% of their preretirement income for retirement years, Fleming said.

    Another rule of thumb is the 4% rule, but that has evolved over time and may be lower now—as low as 2.5% to 3%, according to Gilliland. The original 4% benchmark suggested that a $1 million in savings and investments would allow you to spend an inflation-adjusted $40,000 each year in retirement with minimal odds of outliving your money. 

    Read: The 4% retirement spending rule may be too high. Could you get by on 1.9%?

    Social Security questions

    As far as whether to include Social Security in your planning, it depends on your age, experts said.

    “For those close to retirement, Social Security confidence is higher. For early accumulators just starting out in their retirement savings, we have little confidence Social Security will exist in a meaningful way,” Fleming said. “It’s better to overfund your plan than underfund.”

    Social Security’s combined trust funds will become depleted in 2034, with 80% of benefits payable at that time. The issue of how to “fix” Social Security has grabbed headlines in recent months with President Biden vowing to protect Social Security and Medicare and some politicians suggesting changes to the system. 

    Read: Social Security is now projected to be unable to pay full benefits a year earlier than expected

    “For those 45 and older, they will likely have Social Security. Generally, for those 35 and younger, we don’t talk about Social Security,” Gilliland said. “There will always be some form of Social Security. Politicians will want to be re-elected. Some form of Social Security will always be there—but how meaningful it will be, I don’t know.”

    Other factors to consider in budgeting include healthcare costs, travel expenses or helping with college tuition for grandchildren. 

    “People end up spending more in the first five to 10 years of retirement than they though they would—they’re active, traveling, involved with grandkids. They have an active lifestyle. Then spending goes down a bit until healthcare costs kick in,” Gilliland said 

    “People need to be aware and conscious of spending in this time,” Leonard said. “Put your expenses in buckets in terms of needs, wants and wishes.”

    Healthcare costs

    Weigh factors such as getting Medicare at 65, and the impact of long-term care costs and the estimated $315,000 the average couple is expected to spend on healthcare alone in retirement, according to Fidelity Investment’s 2022 report.

    Gilliland said to plan for healthcare costs to grow at about 7% a year. Family history and your own health should also shape how you budget for healthcare, he said. 

    For those who haven’t started saving for retirement—don’t wait. Start now, no matter how small. Eventually, work toward a goal of putting 12% to 15% of your pay toward retirement, said Fleming.

    “The earlier you start, the better. Stick to a plan and revisit it on an annual basis. Keep checking in and rein in your spending if you’re not on track,” Leonard said. “Be conservative and lean on the side of caution.”

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  • Social Security’s COLA could be 3.1% in 2024, and buying power has dropped 36% since 2000

    Social Security’s COLA could be 3.1% in 2024, and buying power has dropped 36% since 2000

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    The buying power of Social Security has dropped 36% since 2000, meaning that oldest adults who retired before 2000 would need more than $500 a month extra just to maintain the same level of buying power, according to a new study by the Senior Citizens League, a pro-senior think tank.

    The Senior Citizens League also said it expects the 2024 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security to be 3.1%, compared with the 8.7% increase in 2023’s COLA. The organization said last month it expected COLA for 2024 to be less than 3%. 

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  • The government may stop issuing Social Security payments after the debt limit is hit — here’s why

    The government may stop issuing Social Security payments after the debt limit is hit — here’s why

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    There’s a very real possibility the government will stop issuing Social Security payments after the debt limit is hit.

    Scary as that prospect is, however, the alternative might be even worse: A little-known provision of a 1996 law could be interpreted to allow the Social Security trust fund to be used not only to pay Social Security’s monthly checks but also to circumvent the debt limit and pay all the government’s otherwise overdue bills.

    If that happens, any short-term relief to Social Security recipients would come with a potentially huge long-term price tag: The Social Security trust fund could be exhausted much sooner than currently projected—in just a couple of years, in fact.

    Read: I’ll be 60, have $95,000 in cash and no debts — I think I can retire, but financial seminars ‘say otherwise’

    These dire possibilities emerge from an analysis conducted by Steve Robinson, the chief economist for The Concord Coalition, a group that describes itself as “a nonpartisan organization dedicated to educating the public and finding common sense solutions to our nation’s fiscal policy challenges.”

    An issue brief he wrote, entitled “Social Security’s Debt Limit Escape Clause,” is available on the group’s website.

    Let me hasten to add that Robinson is not advocating that the Social Security trust fund be used in this way. In an interview, he instead stressed that he wrote his issue brief because we need to be aware not only that this “escape clause” exists but that its use could have unintended consequences. Though hardly anyone outside Washington knows that it even exists, and relatively few on Capitol Hill, the Treasury Department and the Social Security Administration are very much aware of it.

    Read: ChatGPT is about to make the business of retirement planning and financial advice profoundly human

    Before reviewing the details of this escape clause, it’s worth focusing on the political dynamics that surround it. Because the escape clause lessens the pressure on Congress and the president to come up with a solution to the debt crisis, neither side has an incentive to publicize its existence. But if the government is otherwise pushed to the edge of the fiscal cliff, and it’s facing the potentially huge consequences of an outright default (including the nonpayment of monthly Social Security checks), the political pressure to use the escape clause could be intense.

    The 1996 law that creates the escape clause was passed in the wake of the government hitting its debt limit in 1995 and 1996. Ironically, the intent of that law was to prevent the Social Security trust fund from being used for anything other than paying Social Security benefits. But, Robinson explains, that’s unworkable in the real world. That’s because Social Security checks are sent out by the Treasury’s general account, and if that account is in default the checks would bounce.

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    If and when the debt limit is hit, therefore, the only way—in practice—for Social Security checks to continue being issued and cleared through the banking system would be for the Social Security trust fund to “lend” the Treasury sufficient funds that it could pay all the government’s unmet obligations. (I put “lend” in quotes because that’s not exactly how it works; the key is that the “loan” can be structured in ways that don’t count against the debt limit. If you’re interested in reading more about the complex logistics involved, you should read Robinson’s issue brief.)

    Therefore, if the debt limit is hit, which it is projected to do perhaps as early as June, Congress and the president will be on the horns of a huge dilemma:

    • Do they allow Social Security checks to continue getting paid, risking the political fallout of being accused of “raiding” the Social Security trust fund?

    • Or do they stop issuing Social Security payments, risking the political fallout of not issuing Social Security payments, on whom the very livelihoods of many elderly currently depend?

    You can appreciate why Congress and the president don’t want us to know that this escape clause exists. Once we are aware of it, they are put in a no-win situation.

    So fasten your seat belts for a wild ride in coming months as both parties play political brinkmanship over the debt limit and, by extension, Social Security. With both sides by the day hardening their stances, there’s a very real possibility that the debt limit will be hit.

    If that happens, we’ll be hearing a lot more about the little-known provision of a nearly 30-year-old law.

    Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com.

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