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Tag: Short selling

  • Private equity, private debt and more alternative investments: Should you invest? – MoneySense

    Private equity, private debt and more alternative investments: Should you invest? – MoneySense

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    What are private investments?

    “Private investments” is a catch-all term referring to financial assets that do not trade on public stock, bond or derivatives markets. They include private equity, private debt, private real estate pools, venture capital, infrastructure and alternative strategies (a.k.a. hedge funds). Until recently, you had to be an accredited investor, with a certain net worth and income level, for an asset manager or third-party advisor to sell you private investments. For their part, private asset managers typically demanded minimum investments and lock-in periods that deterred all but the rich. But a 2019 rule change that permitted “liquid alternative” mutual funds and other innovations in Canada made private investments accessible to a wider spectrum of investors.

    Why are people talking about private assets?

    The number of investors and the money they have to invest has increased over the years, but the size of the public markets has not kept pace. The number of operating companies (not including exchange-traded funds, or ETFs) trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange actually declined to 712 at the end of 2023 from around 1,200 at the turn of the millennium. The same phenomenon has been noted in most developed markets. U.S. listings have fallen from 8,000 in the late 1990s to approximately 4,300 today. Logically that would make the price of public securities go up, which may have happened. But something else did, too.

    Beginning 30 years ago, big institutional investors such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and university endowments started allocating money to private investments instead. On the other side of the table, all manner of investment companies sprang up to package and sell private investments—for example, private equity firms that specialize in buying companies from their founders or on the public markets, making them more profitable, then selling them seven or 10 years later for double or triple the price. The flow of money into private equity has grown 10 times over since the global financial crisis of 2008.

    In the past, companies that needed more capital to grow often had to go public; now, they have the option of staying private, backed by private investors. Many prefer to do so, to avoid the cumbersome and expensive reporting requirements of public companies and the pressure to please shareholders quarter after quarter. So, public companies represent a smaller share of the economy than in the past.

    Raising the urgency, stocks and bonds have become more positively correlated in recent years; in an almost unprecedented event, both asset classes fell in tandem in 2022. Not just pension funds but small investors, too, now worry that they must get exposure to private markets or be left behind.

    What can private investments add to my portfolio?

    There are two main reasons why investors might want private investments in their portfolio:

    • Diversification benefits: Private investments are considered a different asset class than publicly traded securities. Private investments’ returns are not strongly correlated to either the stock or bond market. As such, they help diversify a portfolio and smooth out its ups and downs.
    • Superior returns: According to Bain & Company, private equity has outperformed public equity over each of the past three decades. But findings like this are debatable, not just because Bain itself is a private equity firm but because there are no broad indices measuring the performance of private assets—the evidence is little more than anecdotal—and their track record is short. Some academic studies have concluded that part or all of private investments’ perceived superior performance can be attributed to long holding periods, which is a proven strategy in almost any asset class. Because of their illiquidity, investors must hold them for seven years or more (depending on the investment type).

    What are the drawbacks of private investments?

    Though the barriers to private asset investing have come down somewhat, investors still have to contend with:

    • lliquidity: Traditional private investment funds require a minimum investment period, typically seven to 12 years. Even “evergreen” funds that keep reinvesting (rather than winding down after 10 to 15 years) have restrictions around redemptions, such as how often you can redeem and how much notice you must give.
    • Less regulatory oversight: Private funds are exempt from many of the disclosure requirements of public securities. Having name-brand asset managers can provide some reassurance, but they often charge the highest fees.
    • Short track records: Relatively new asset types—such as private mortgages and private corporate loans—have a limited history and small sample sizes, making due diligence harder compared to researching the stock and bond markets.
    • May not qualify for registered accounts: You can’t hold some kinds of private company shares or general partnership units in a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP), for example.
    • High management fees: Another reason why private investments are proliferating: as discount brokerages, indexing and ETFs drive down costs in traditional asset classes, private investments represent a market where the investment industry can still make fat fees. The hedge fund standard is “two and 20”—a management fee of 2% of assets per year plus 20% of gains over a certain threshold. Even their “liquid alt” cousins in Canada charge 1.25% for management and a 15.7% performance fee on average. Asset managers thus have an interest in packaging and promoting more private asset offerings.

    How can retail investors buy private investments?

    To invest in private investment funds the conventional way, you still have to be an accredited investor—which in Canada means having $1 million in financial assets (minus liabilities), $5 million in total net worth or $200,000 in pre-tax income in each of the past two years ($300,000 for a couple). But for investors of lesser means, there is a growing array of workarounds:

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    Michael McCullough

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  • One of Wall Street’s most feared short sellers takes aim at Blackstone Mortgage Trust, warning it could be ‘completely wiped out’ by rising losses

    One of Wall Street’s most feared short sellers takes aim at Blackstone Mortgage Trust, warning it could be ‘completely wiped out’ by rising losses

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    Carson Block, the founder of the famed short-selling investment firm Muddy Waters, revealed he’s betting against Blackstone Mortgage Trust on Wednesday, in a sign that he expects commercial real estate’s woes to drag on into next year. In a report titled “Here Comes the Cliff!,” Block suggested that the publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT), which provides loans for the ailing commercial real estate sector, faces a “perfect macro storm” of rising interest rates and office vacancies. 

    Despite many CEOs’ pleas and threats for their employees to return to the office, office vacancies hit a record high of 13.3% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors. And overdue commercial real estate loans also hit a 10-year high last month as property values in the sector continue to sink amid higher interest rates.

    Muddy Waters fears that this means “a large number” of Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s borrowers will be unable to refinance or repay their loans in 2024. The investment firm estimates that between 70% and 75% of Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s U.S. borrowers are currently “unable to cover interest expense from property cash flows.” That could, per Muddy Waters’ estimates, lead to losses of between $2.5 billion and $4.5 billion for the REIT. 

    In other words, Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s $4 billion market cap is “at risk of being completely wiped out by these losses,” the short-seller’s report warns. While the REIT hasn’t faced issues yet because it has been able to extend and modify loans for clients, that can’t last forever, according to Block.

    “There’s been a lot of extending and pretending when things have been backed by paper profits,” he told Bloomberg at the Sohn investment conference in London on Wednesday. “It’ll be the second half of next year that we’ll really start to see losses.”

    Once losses begin to pile up in the second half of 2024, Muddy Waters expects Blackstone Mortgage Trust will be forced to cut its dividend, which has soared to nearly 12%. Even the increasing prospect of interest rate cuts from the Fed that could provide relief for the commercial real estate sector in the form of cheaper loans would be “too little, too late,” according to the short-seller.

    Blackstone Mortgage Trust did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment, but a spokesperson told Bloomberg in a statement that the REIT is “well positioned to navigate this environment,” adding that they believe ”Muddy Waters’ report was “self-interested,”  “misleading,” and “designed solely…for the short seller’s own benefit.”

    Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s stock sank 8% on Wednesday after the release of Muddy Waters’ report.

    Block’s Muddy Waters is one of a few noted short-sellers who have risen to fame over the past decade for making large, and often quite profitable, bets against a myriad of companies, foreign and domestic. 

    Founded in 2010, the investment firm burst onto the scene in its first year of operation by shorting shares of China’s Rino International, a formerly Nasdaq-listed maker of desulfurization gear for steel plants. Block warned at the time that the company was misstating its revenue and making misleading claims about its status as an industry leader in key steel markets. 

    Rino International was eventually delisted from the Nasdaq, and the CEO and his wife, the company chairman, faced U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission charges of overstating revenues and diverting money for personal use.

    Since then, Block has made big bets against a number of firms, including the medical supplier St. Jude and the European real estate company Corestate Capital Holding SA. However, in an interview with Bloomberg earlier this year, Block said that his short-selling days may be ending in the next few years, noting that the toll of corporate lawsuits against his firm for its negative reports is taking its toll.

    Of short-selling, he said, “It is a decent living, but per unit of brain damage, it’s definitely one of the worst businesses in the asset management industry.”

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    Will Daniel

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  • South Korean Stocks Jump After Regulator Bans Short Selling

    South Korean Stocks Jump After Regulator Bans Short Selling

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    (Bloomberg) — South Korean stocks surged after regulators reimposed a full ban on short-selling for about eight months, a controversial move that authorities said was needed to stop illegal use of a trading tactic deployed regularly by hedge funds and other investors around the world.

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    The ban may help appeal to retail investors who have complained about the impact of shorting — the selling of borrowed shares by institutional investors — ahead of elections in April. However, it could deter some foreign investors and hold back MSCI Inc. from upgrading Korean equities to developed market from emerging status.

    The benchmark Kospi jumped as much as 4%, the most since January 2021, leading gains among major regional gauges in Asia on Monday. Stocks that had seen recent jumps in short-selling positions, including LG Energy Solution Ltd. and Posco Future M Co., were among the biggest boosts. The small-cap Kosdaq Index surged as much as 5.9%, the most since June 2020.

    The nation’s Financial Services Commission said on Sunday that new short-selling positions will be prohibited for equities on the Kospi 200 Index and Kosdaq 150 Index from Monday through the end of June 2024. Pandemic-era restrictions on the practice had been lifted for those two gauges only in May 2021, while the ban has remained in place for some 2,000 stocks.

    READ: South Korea to Ban Short-Selling of Stocks Until June 2024

    The move comes ahead of general elections in April for the National Assembly in South Korea, where public perception of short-selling remains deeply negative. Some ruling party lawmakers urged the government to temporarily end stock short-selling in response to demands by retail investors, who have staged protests against the tactic. Most short-selling in South Korea is conducted by institutional investors.

    “This policy reversal with respect to short selling is unwarranted at the current time,” said Wongmo Kang, an analyst at Exome Asset Management. “Many people view it as a political move aimed at next year’s general election,” he said, adding that the Korean market tend to be “heavily influenced by retail investors”.

    The Kospi surged earlier this year on frenzied buying of electric-vehicle battery names and chip stocks related to the artificial intelligence theme. Concerns over geopolitical tensions and high interest rates reversed the rally in recent months, driving the benchmark into a technical correction and nearly erasing its gain for the year.

    The latest ban is “unusual” as authorities are comprehensively prohibiting short selling at a time when there is no financial crisis, said Huh Jae-Hwan, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities.

    The financial regulator said the market had been disrupted due to “massive” naked short-selling by global investment banks. The so-called naked variety of the trade involves shorting shares without borrowing them first. The regulator said it is now seeking to make improvements to create a level playing field for retail investors, with stronger punishments for traders who break the rules.

    READ: Korea to Fine Banks for Naked Shorts; Local Media Name HSBC, BNP

    While regulators argue that naked short-selling inhibits fair price formation and hurts confidence, some observers say broad outright bans make the market less transparent and therefore less attractive. Some say the restrictions may keep the market from being upgraded in MSCI indexes.

    “It does compromise their status and certainly would hold them back from achieving developed market status,” said Gary Dugan, chief investment officer at Dalma Capital Management Ltd. “Given that there is an immediate ban there will be an initial sharp move higher in stock prices of companies that have had some short selling,” but the impact may be limited given low levels of short positions in the overall market, he said.

    “There is a possibility that international investors may lose trust and opportunity in the Korean market,” Exome Asset’s Kang said. “Without the ability for investors to express a view that markets and individual stocks are ‘mispriced’ to the upside, stock markets lose long term credibility on the world stage.”

    –With assistance from Abhishek Vishnoi.

    (An earlier version of this story was corrected to show the ban was partially lifted in May 2021)

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    ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: The Fed wants inflation at 2%. But the economy may be fine with higher inflation

    CNBC Daily Open: The Fed wants inflation at 2%. But the economy may be fine with higher inflation

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    The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C.

    Stefani Reynolds | Bloomberg Creative Photos | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    The Fed wants to bring inflation down to 2%. But the economy may be fine with higher inflation.

    What you need to know today

    • The U.S. Federal Reserve — and many other central banks in the world — have been proclaiming their determination to bring inflation down to 2%. But this 2% target is relatively arbitrary.
    • Darktrace, a U.K. cybersecurity firm, was accused by Quintessential Capital Management, a New York-based short seller, of accounting flaws that inflate revenue. Darktrace denied the allegations and appointed EY to review its processes.
    • PRO It’s unclear if the recent rise in markets is a bear market rally or the start of a new bull market. In this volatile environment, it’s best to be “defensively offensive,” according to a portfolio specialist.

    The bottom line

    The 2% inflation target has been repeated so often by Fed officials and central bankers worldwide that it seems absolutely crucial to a healthy economy. But “the 2% inflation target, it’s relatively arbitrary,” said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute.

    In fact, it was invented in New Zealand in the 1980s. Arthur Grimes, professor of wellbeing and public policy at Victoria University, said that New Zealand was experiencing skyrocketing inflation then, and the central bank picked an inflation target — seemingly out of nowhere —so that it could work toward a goal.

    Other central banks followed suit. In 1991, Canada announced its inflation target; the United Kingdom followed a year later. It was not until 2012 that the U.S. declared its 2% inflation target, but that number has remained stubbornly alive in the minds of the Fed ever since.

    But if the 2% target is arbitrary, it implies that the economy could function normally at a higher level of inflation. Indeed, in 2007, some economists wrote a letter to the Fed arguing for a higher ceiling. “There’s no evidence that 3% or 4% inflation does substantial damage relative to 2% inflation,” said Laurence Ball, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, who was among those who signed that letter.

    The Fed, however, is unlikely to change its target amid the current hiking cycle — it might look like it’s caving to investor demands for lower rates. Reconsidering what healthy inflation means will be a task left to another generation of central bankers.

    CNBC’s Andrea Miller contributed to this report.

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