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Sixteen candidates are vying for the U.S. Congressional District 18 seat vacated by the March death of former Rep. Sylvester Turner, and political experts say it will likely be decided in a runoff between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards. The winner will hold the seat until the term expires at the end of 2026.
The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs recently released a poll showing Menefee and Edwards in the lead, with 27 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Texas Rep. Jolanda Jones was in third place with 15 percent, according to the poll.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University who co-authored the survey, said Jolanda Jones is “clearly in a second-tier category compared to Menefee and Edwards.”
“It’s not really a three-candidate race right now. It’s a two-candidate race,” he said.
University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus agreed that all signs are pointing to a runoff, with Menefee and Edwards as the top vote-getters.
“It’s been a pretty quiet race; it’s been pretty dormant,” Rottinghaus said. “There’s a chance that Menefee could [win outright] but I don’t think it’s going to happen. It depends on turnout. I don’t think there’s a ton of enthusiasm at this point.”
Early voting began Monday, and Election Day is November 4. The boundaries of Congressional District 18 were redrawn over the summer and are currently being challenged in federal court, creating confusion for some voters who aren’t sure whether they still live in CD 18.
Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth reminded voters at a press conference Monday that the current District 18 boundaries, the ones that have been in place for the past several election cycles, remain in place until 2026. They will also remain the same in a runoff, but not in next year’s election, when the seat will be up for grabs again.
The UH report states that if federal judges affirm Texas’s new district maps for the 2026 election, much of Congressional District 9 would be redistricted into Congressional District 18. U.S. Rep. Al Green, who has represented District 9 for two decades, received high (89 percent) favorability ratings by the Democratic voters living within the current boundaries of District 18, according to the poll.
Green is not participating in the District 18 race to fill Turner’s unexpired term but said he’s considering a bid for the seat next year.
The district has elected a Black Democrat for more than 50 years; the late former U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee represented the area for almost three decades. Lee died in July 2024, and Turner, a former Houston mayor, held the seat for less than three months before his death.
Other noteworthy hopefuls in the District 18 race for Turner’s unexpired term include Republican journalist Carmen Maria Montiel, Democrat Isaiah Martin, and Independent candidate George Foreman IV. Montiel received support from 6 percent of likely voters; Martin and Foreman received support from 4 percent. No other candidate received more than 3 percent.
The polling numbers have not discouraged political newcomer Stephen Huey from remaining in the race to fill Turner’s seat. The Democrat told the Houston Press his party is “not getting a lot done right now.”
“We need to communicate better to the rest of the American people,” he said. “The preaching to the choir thing doesn’t work.” Huey, a technology consultant, said he’s the only Democrat in the race who has extensive industry experience in healthcare, finance, and energy. He added, however, that even though he speaks Spanish and spent part of his childhood in West Africa, he’s still a white guy running in a district heavily populated by Black and Latino voters.
“Some people I’ve talked to insist that maybe [the Congress member] should be someone from Third Ward, and I totally understand that,” Huey said. “For me, I’m most concerned about the district being served well.”
About 1,200 likely voters were surveyed in the UH poll between October 7 and 11. When presented with eight policy issues, 44 percent said civil rights and civil liberties were the top concerns facing the nation, followed by jobs and the economy (13 percent), healthcare (12 percent), and inflation and prices (11 percent).
Rottinghaus suggested that the top two candidates may be saving some of their “best stuff” for the runoff. Both Menefee and Edwards have been campaigning nonstop since they filed for the post shortly after Turner’s funeral. They’re both young Black lawyers and have taken similar positions on opposing the mid-decade redistricting effort, supporting affordable healthcare for all Americans and standing up to the Trump administration.
Menefee, 37, recently sued the federal government, claiming the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency illegally rescinded its $7 billion Solar for All grant program. The county attorney also joined government leaders across the country in filing a legal motion opposing a federal law that would strip Medicaid funding from Planned Parenthood.
Edwards, 43, hosted an “Uplifting Black Women’s Voices” media event last week featuring Alison Leland, the widow of Mickey Leland, who held the District 18 seat for 10 years. Edwards has highlighted her service as an at-large Houston City Council member and her community advocacy.
Edwards ran for the District 18 seat in 2024, placing second to Jackson Lee in the primary. After Jackson Lee’s death, Edwards made another bid and lost to Turner in a special election. During those campaigns, she built a base of supporters and increased her name recognition among the district’s 825,000 residents.
As it stands today, Congressional District 18 is about 43 percent Hispanic, 32 percent Black and 17 percent white.
The UH survey shows that Jolanda Jones did not poll well among white voters, compared to Menefee and Edwards. The state rep broke quorum this summer, fleeing the state to avoid voting on a redistricting map that she deemed racist and illegal. While she has said her constituents supported her action, she lost valuable campaign time. Jones also filed almost three months after Menefee and Edwards did, saying she didn’t want to abandon the constituents of her Texas House district while the Legislature was in session.
Nancy Sims, a political science lecturer at the University of Houston, said Congressional District 18 is “a pretty solidly liberal district.”
“It has a vast array of people that span from far north Harris County all the way to the inner city,” she said. “It’s a diverse district. I think it’s fair to say that the voters of District 18 are proud of the heritage of their representatives, from Barbara Jordan to Mickey Leland to Sheila Jackson Lee. They like the outspoken, opinionated representatives that fight for them.”
Democrats have criticized Gov. Greg Abbott for delaying the election to November when he could have called it immediately after Turner’s death in March. By the time a runoff is held, likely in February, the district will have been without representation for almost a year.
“All of this was intentional,” candidate Isaiah Martin told the Texas Tribune. “Republicans knew that when they did this sham process, and they’re trying to depress our turnout. And so it’s up to us to make sure that we don’t let them succeed.”
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.
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April Towery
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