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Tag: securities

  • Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

    Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

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    Both the House and Senate are due to get back to work this week after their Thanksgiving break, and lawmakers have a lot on their plates.

    A divided Washington put off the threat of a partial government shutdown until mid-January by enacting a short-term spending bill in mid-November, but the measure didn’t address President Joe Biden’s $106 billion funding request that includes wartime aid for Israel and Ukraine.

    So…

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  • Here’s how the stock market has performed on Black Friday going back to 1990

    Here’s how the stock market has performed on Black Friday going back to 1990

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    Major U.S. stock indexes were struggling to make any big moves on Friday as traders returned from the Thanksgiving Day holiday, in line with holiday-shortened Black Friday trading sessions over more than three decades.

    U.S. stock exchanges are due to close at 1 p.m. Eastern time Friday, three hours earlier than usual. As the table below from Dow Jones Market Data shows, trading on the day after Thanksgiving has not tended to produce big moves.

    Not…

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  • Why wealthy investors put $125 billion into this new type of private-equity fund last year

    Why wealthy investors put $125 billion into this new type of private-equity fund last year

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    Private-equity funds aimed at wealthy individuals continue to draw in fresh capital as the universe of alternative investments grows beyond its roots serving endowments, pension funds and other institutions, according to industry data.

    Registered funds that take investments from individuals and smaller institutions rose by about $125 billion in 2022 from the previous year to total assets under management (AUM) of $425 billion, according to data from private-equity investor and data provider Hamilton Lane Inc. HLNE.

    The…

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  • Why stocks’ Thanksgiving-week performance is important to watch

    Why stocks’ Thanksgiving-week performance is important to watch

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    While the U.S. trading week is shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday, it’s important to watch the stock market’s performance to see if the rally of the past month can be sustained through the year-end. 

    Stocks have rallied in November so far, with the S&P 500 index SPX logging a 8.6% gain month-to-date, while it’s up 18.6% so far this year, according to FactSet data. 

    “If…

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  • SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

    SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

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    The Securities and Exchange Commission charged cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered securities exchange.

    The charges are the latest effort by regulators to crack down on crypto companies, some of which the SEC views as illegally selling securities without registering with the commission.

    Kraken didn’t immediately…

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  • Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

    Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

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    U.S. stocks have jumped back near to their summertime highs, a big rebound as investors enter the holiday season with Black Friday just days away.

    The shopping frenzy expected on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, kicks off a spending spree for the holidays that could help buoy stocks after their surge this month.

    “With consumers employed…

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  • Short seller Jim Chanos to close hedge funds, return cash to investors: report

    Short seller Jim Chanos to close hedge funds, return cash to investors: report

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    Legendary short seller Jim Chanos told the Wall Street Journal Friday that he is closing his hedge funds, saying that “the marketplace for what I do has changed.” Chanos expects to return most of his investors’ cash by Dec. 31, the newspaper reported. The short seller famously detected issues with Enron Corp.’s filings two decades ago and earlier this year took on Tesla Inc. TSLA, but his funds had dwindled. Chanos & Co. manages less than $200 million currently, down from $6 billion in 2008, the Journal said. Chanos’s funds are down 4% so far this year, while the S&P 500 index SPX has gained more than 17%. Tesla is up…

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  • Market Snapshot – MarketWatch

    Market Snapshot – MarketWatch

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    Dow closes at 3-month high as investors weigh data on retail sales, inflation

    U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday, building on the previous session’s blockbuster rally sparked by subdued inflation data that bolstered hopes for an economic soft landing that would see the Federal Reserve reduce borrow…

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  • Foreign investors may have bailed out of Treasurys at exactly the wrong time

    Foreign investors may have bailed out of Treasurys at exactly the wrong time

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    Foreign investors dumped U.S. Treasury debt in September for the first time since May 2021, but it’s possible these sellers are already regretting it, according to one prominent Wall Street economist.

    The latest installment of the Treasury Department’s monthly reports on buying and selling of U.S. securities by foreign investors — by both central banks and other official parties and private institutions and individuals — showed they sold $1.7 billion in Treasurys on a net basis. That marked the first time foreign investors…

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  • How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

    How a second set of Trump tax cuts could jack up the national debt

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    If Donald Trump were to be elected president in 2024, what would it mean for U.S. tax policy and the national debt?

    There are growing expectations that he could deliver another round of big tax cuts, with the reductions coming right as those enacted in 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act are due to expire in 2025.

    “If Republicans hold their House…

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  • Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—What Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling

    Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia—What Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Buying and Selling

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    It’s filing season for a string of major hedge funds, and big tech names like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia were among the most-traded equities in the third quarter.

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  • Soros snaps up tech stocks in Q3, but dumps some of the biggest names

    Soros snaps up tech stocks in Q3, but dumps some of the biggest names

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    Soros Fund Management, the investment firm founded by billionaire George Soros, took new positions or bulked up on IPOs and a number of tech names during the third quarter.

    But it sold off small holdings of some of the largest — like Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. — as well as electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive.

    According to a filing on Tuesday, the firm during the third quarter bought up 325,000 shares of chip designer Arm Holdings
    ARM,
    +3.37%
    ,
    which went public in September, for $17.4 million. It also bought smaller stakes in recent IPOs such as Maplebear Inc.
    CART,
    +1.25%
    ,
    better known as grocery-delivery platform Instacart, and digital-marketing firm Klaviyo Inc.
    KVYO,
    +6.90%
    .
    Those purchases were disclosed as investors remain cautious on new IPOs.

    Elsewhere, the fund took a new position, of around 41,000 shares, in Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +1.43%
    .
    And it did so as well for Datadog Inc.
    DDOG,
    +4.58%
    ,
    buying 62,000 shares during the quarter. It also bought up 574,962 shares of Splunk, and took fresh positions in Snowflake Inc.
    SNOW,
    +4.51%

    and Taiwan Semiconductor
    TSM,
    +2.58%
    .

    Soros also packed on more to some of its other tech holdings. It added 125,000 shares to its stake in Uber Technologies Inc.
    UBER,
    +3.14%
    ,
    boosting its position by 16.6% for a total of 878,955 shares. It also bought 42,000 more shares of another gig-economy player, DoorDash Inc.
    DASH,
    +4.37%
    ,
    a 30.9% increase for 178,075 shares.

    While Soros boosted its stake in General Motors
    GM,
    +4.83%
    ,
    it sold off its 4.2 million shares in Rivian
    RIVN,
    +4.39%
    .
    The firm also sold off its positions — of roughly 10,000 shares apiece — in tech giants Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +0.98%

    and Nvidia
    NVDA,
    +2.13%
    .

    Soros Fund Management also sold off its stake in Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    +1.82%
    .

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  • How financial conditions might play into Fed’s thinking after October’s CPI

    How financial conditions might play into Fed’s thinking after October’s CPI

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    Financial markets were jubilant over Tuesday’s data showing that U.S. consumer prices eased by more than expected in October, with Treasury yields plummeting on expectations the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further and might even lower borrowing costs.

    In a nutshell, financial conditions suddenly became looser, with the benchmark 10-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    at 4.46% in New York afternoon trading or down by more than half a percentage point from its October peak. Right now, conditions are “much more accommodative” than when Fed officials first suggested higher long-term yields could do the work of tighter monetary policy and take the place of a rate hike, according to Will Compernolle, a macro strategist for FHN Financial in New York.

    The jury is out on how much a continuation of looser financial conditions will matter to central bankers. At one point in Tuesday’s session, both the 10-year yield and the policy-sensitive 2-year yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD02Y
    were heading for their biggest one-day declines in more than six months as traders revved up expectations for at least four Fed rate cuts in 2024.

    Tuesday’s October CPI inflation report “will be very welcome to the Fed, though it will inevitably make the Fed’s challenge of restraining market optimism and financial conditions more difficult too,” according to New York-based advisory firm Evercore ISI.

    In a note, Evercore’s Vice Chairman Krishna Guha and others wrote that “the Fed’s challenge is that the market sees this and is trying to jump to the endgame, risking a larger/sooner easing in financial conditions than the Fed itself would like to see under prudent upside inflation risk management principles. So expect Fed officials to maintain a very cautious and relatively hawkish tone.”

    Indeed, there’s plenty of reasons to remain careful about reading too much into one report.

    After Tuesday’s data, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he’s not convinced inflation is on a clear path toward 2% despite recent progress in curbing price pressures.

    Some economists also said October’s CPI report isn’t the game changer that markets think it is. And FHN’s Compernolle said that if the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), shows “horizontal momentum” when the October data is released later this month, there could be some on the Federal Open Market Committee “who feel the lower bond yields necessitate a higher fed funds rate.”

    Read: Economists in hawkish camp don’t surrender in wake of October consumer-inflation print

    At Hirtle Callaghan & Co., a West Conshohocken, Pa.-based firm which manages $18.5 billion in assets, Brad Conger, deputy chief investment officer, said that October’s CPI readings validate the Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach and that “it will take a rather long series of this order of magnitude to give them confidence to ease policy.”

    Meanwhile, “we worry that the recent easing of financial conditions and energy prices could easily start to counter the restraint,” Conger wrote in an email on Tuesday.

    In addition to a broad-based decline in Treasury yields, all three major U.S. stock indexes
    DJIA

    SPX

    COMP
    were higher as of Tuesday afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 500 points on a buying frenzy as investors also cheered Tuesday’s low “supercore” inflation figure that acts as a proxy for labor costs.

    Just last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is wary of “head fakes” from inflation, or temporary improvements that only reverse over time.

    If Tuesday’s CPI data for October isn’t a “head fake,” “the Fed may be able to accept a loosening of financial conditions in order to prevent a recession,” said Lawrence Gillum, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based fixed-income strategist for broker-dealer for LPL Financial. “If it is a head fake, then the Fed will talk up the need for higher long-end yields. It will probably take a couple more months of this type of report or better to see whether that plays out.”

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  • This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

    This week’s October inflation data looms large on Washington’s economic radar

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    Inflation data, a Fed speech and a government-shutdown deadline are on the calendar this week.


    MarketWatch photo illustration/iStock

    U.S. inflation data for October is clearly the economic highlight for markets, economists and policymakers this coming week. That’s because if price pressures continue their cooling trend from the summer, the Fed might be able to refrain from any more interest-rate hikes.

    Here’s a preview of the inflation report and other critical data and events that will have the markets’ attention this week.

    See: MarketWatch’s comprehensive economic calendar

    October consumer inflation

    Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    No economic reports matter more for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy outlook than consumer inflation data. Inflation has been trending down since the summer, but many economists are wary that most of the progress was low-hanging fruit, and that it will take a lot to get back to the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised this concern in remarks on Thursday, saying the central bank was concerned about inflation “head fakes.”

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect headline CPI to moderate to a 0.1% rise in October, down from a 0.4% gain in the prior month, and the smallest increase since May.

    Over the past year, inflation is expected to rise at a 3.3% rate, down from 3.7% in the prior month.

    The improvement is expected to come mainly from gasoline prices.

    Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.3%, matching a 0.3% gain in the prior month. The year-over-year rate is seen holding steady at a 4.1% annual rate.

    October retail sales

    Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. Eastern

    Economists expect retail sales to be weak, falling 0.1% in October after a 0.7% jump in September and a 0.8% gain in August.

    The outlook for consumer spending is one of the most intriguing questions about the outlook.

    Will the strong spending seen in the late summer fade away? With above-trend job growth and incomes rising, there seems no reason for consumers to pull back sharply. But many economists think that consumers are running out of excess spending power built up during the pandemic.

    Also see: Retail earnings begin this week. ‘It’s getting worse,’ an analyst says.

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s speech to the Detroit Economic Club

    Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. Eastern

    There are just under 20 public remarks from Fed officials scheduled this week. One of the highlights will be Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s moderated question-and-answer session before the Detroit Economic Club.

    Goolsbee, who joined the Fed at the beginning of the year, is comfortable speaking in public and on television from his days in the Obama administration, and afterwards as a pundit. His views also carry weight because he will be on any short list of potential replacements for Powell if President Joe Biden wins a second term.

    Goolsbee has looked prescient so far. In his first public speeches this summer, he suggested that there could be an improvement in inflation without a big rise in unemployment.

    Biden-Xi to meet at APEC summit

    Wednesday

    Biden and Xi will meet for the first time in a year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, amid struggles in the Chinese economy and the recent strengthening of ties between XI and Russian Vladimir Putin.

    Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said investors should not expect anything market-moving from the talks. The Biden administration simply wants to get face time with Xi, he said.

    “The goal is to find out how to reach him, who are you supposed to talk to [to reach him in the future], and then have a good conversation with him where Biden can say a few things that we think he really needs to hear from us,” Scissors said.

    Gone are the days when the U.S. and China cooperated on economic issues, he said.

    Xi simply doesn’t care that much about the economy, Scissors said. He is more focused on “really strict party control of everything,” he added.

    Threat of a government shutdown

    Friday, midnight deadline

    The federal government will run out of money late Friday unless Congress passes legislation to keep the lights on.

    It is the first test for new House Speaker Mike Johnson. He has proposed a two-step government spending plan to keep the government open until early next year, but it remains uncertain whether this will break the logjam.

    Late Friday, Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to “negative” from “stable.”

    This is actually positive for the prospects of a congressional deal, said Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, a political forecasting firm.

    Haines said he has lowered the odds of a government shutdown to 30% from 40% before the Moody’s move.

    “The last thing House Republicans should want to do…is show newly skeptical markets that they can’t even handle a continuation of government funding,” Haines said, in a note to clients.

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  • Markets – MarketWatch

    Markets – MarketWatch

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    Technology-stock gains drive big day, week on Wall Street

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  • How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

    How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

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    It was a trading day unlike any other for traders in the $25 trillion Treasury market, with a 30-year bond auction seen as having been partially undermined by a cyberattack on the U.S. unit of a Chinese bank.

    In recapping Treasury’s poorly received $24 billion bond auction on Thursday, traders said the weaker-than-expected results likely had at least something to do with this week’s ransomware hit on the American arm of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, known as ICBC. That attack reportedly caused disruptions across the market and had some impact on liquidity, with the Financial Times citing unnamed sources as saying hedge funds and asset managers were forced to reroute trades.

    Traders were grappling on Friday to answer the question of what created the sudden lack of interest at the auction, which went so badly that it also shook up U.S. stock investors. Thursday’s sale was the worst since November 2021, based on the extent to which primary dealers were forced to step in and pick up the slack in demand, one trader said. And it reinforced a recent pattern of weak auctions for the 30-year bond that may not bode well for future sales of that long-dated maturity.

    It’s possible that bonds simply “look much less attractive” following a recent “explosive rally” since late October, according to Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities in New York. However, “this might be the case of ‘more than meets the eye’ to this ‘ugly auction evidencing low demand for duration’ story,” he wrote in a note.

    “One dynamic that makes yesterday’s ugly auction results murky was the ICBC cyberattack described across various financial media, which gunked-up anybody who clears UST trades through them, and made it so that many dealers were then likely unable to trade with those clients until resolved, on account of unsettled trades which weren’t able to be matched,” McElligott said.

    Adding to Thursday’s uncertainty was another random event. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on stage in an International Monetary Fund panel, was interrupted by a climate protester, and then uttered a seven-letter expletive that could be heard on the event’s livestream.

    Powell’s policy-related remarks, which indicated the central bank might take further action to control inflation, “didn’t help things and kind of spooked people again,” said John Farawell, head of municipal trading at New York bond underwriter Roosevelt & Cross.

    Read: Fed’s Powell Made Cryptic Comments. How He’s Guiding the Market.

    On Friday, the Treasury market found stabilization as buyers returned to segments of government debt in a sign that calm was being restored. A rush of buying was seen on the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y,
    sending its yield down to 4.733% and to a third straight weekly decline.

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that the repercussions of the ICBC cyberattack included an inability to deliver U.S. debt that was being pledged as collateral. ICBC’s U.S. unit was forced to rely on a messenger carrying a USB stick across Manhattan to complete disrupted trades, according to the news service, which also described Thursday’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction as one of the worst in a decade.

    The ICBC attack “might have had a dramatic impact on the auction. I don’t know how much, but I also can’t imagine it didn’t,” said Tom di Galoma, co-head of global rates trading for BTIG in New York. “When people see that there are trade-settlement issues, there’s a willingness to back off and that’s exactly what happened yesterday. Institutional accounts were saying, ‘We don’t know who is settling this trade.’ If the cyberattack hadn’t happened, I think the auction would have gone a lot better.”

    Ben Emons, a senior portfolio manager and head of fixed income for NewEdge Wealth in New York, said that once the Treasury market got upended by the ICBC cyberattack, the bad auction, and the interruption during Powell’s appearance, liquidity on U.S. government debt “was, for a moment, a dark matter.”

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  • Here’s how to use the new tax-bracket information for 2024 to lower your tax bill

    Here’s how to use the new tax-bracket information for 2024 to lower your tax bill

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    When it comes to managing your taxes, where you fall in one of the seven progressive tax brackets is the key to understanding how much you’re going to end up paying when you file your return.

    The Internal Revenue Service announced new inflation-adjusted brackets for 2024 on tax rates that go from 10% to 37%. The dollar amounts of income separating the bands run from as little as $11,600 to more than $365,000, for those filing single, with similar ratios for those married filing jointly. 

    You can pay no attention to this at all, and just let your tax preparer or software figure out the math for you. Or you can delve into the details and potentially reduce the amount you owe. 

    A progressive tax system means you don’t pay the top rate on your whole income. Instead, you pay the rates for each band in a row as you go up the income ladder. If your taxable income as a single filer is $11,600 in 2024, you’ll pay 10% on the entire amount. Anything above that, and you pay the 10% tax on that first chunk, and then add each additional band on top of it.

    Next year, for instance, if you have taxable income of more than $609,350, that puts you in the 37% bracket. You’ll pay $183,647.25 — the stacked combination of the 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32% and 35% brackets — plus 37% of the excess over $609,350. 

    To figure out where you fall on the spectrum, you just need to estimate your 2024 taxable income or extrapolate from your previous tax returns. You can see the full tax-bracket charts here

    This may seem like just a curiosity for those with straightforward income, but you’ll need to pay close attention if you’re planning any atypical financial moves, such as a retirement, a conversion from a 401(k) to a Roth IRA or the sale of a business or significant piece of property. 

    “Everyone seems to care about tax brackets,” says Sri Reddy, the senior vice president of retirement and income solutions at Principal Financial Group. “But I wouldn’t tell you to worry about it. You should make as much money as you want, because you get to keep some portion of it. I’d just rather have you have an awareness of what it might mean to you.”

    Here’s where tax-bracket management matters most: 

    Retirement savings

    You can know your tax bracket now, but you don’t know what it will be in the future. Your retirement savings are stuck in the middle. 

    Should you pay tax on your retirement savings now and save in a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k), so the growth is tax-free after you’re 59½? Or should you save in tax-deferred accounts and pay tax down the road when you spend the money — or are forced to withdraw it yearly for required minimum distributions? And if you do this, at some point do you want to convert some of those funds to Roth, pay the tax and then let the funds grow tax-free into the future? 

    “If you’re in a high tax bracket now, doing a Roth contribution to your 401(k) makes no fiscal sense,” says Chris Chen, a Boston-based certified financial planner who runs Insight Financial Strategists

    Chen recently advised a couple in their 50s who wanted to shift all of their 401(k) contributions from tax-deferred accounts to Roth to save the hassle of converting the funds later. The challenge is they are currently in the 35% tax bracket, and must also pay Massachusetts’ 5% state income tax. They plan to retire early, at which point they’ll probably drop to the 12% bracket.

    “So putting money in Roth now does not make sense from a tax standpoint,” says Chen. “They got persuaded to continue putting money into a traditional 401(k), and they deferred the Roth idea to later.”

    Roth conversions

    When you do come to the Roth conversion stage, you’ll need to look even closer at your tax bracket so that you can see how much income you can add without pushing into the next level. It’s a particularly steep increase from the 12% bracket to the 22% bracket, and then from the 24% bracket to the 32% bracket. 

    “You have to see at what point is it too painful to pay the tax,” says Ryan Losi, a CPA and executive vice president at PIASCIK, based in Glen Allen, Va. “We don’t want to go up to 32% or 35%, because that’s too big a payment.”

    For example, if your taxable income for 2024 is going to be $80,000 as a married couple, you’d be in the 12% bracket. If you plan to convert $20,000 from your 401(k) or IRA to Roth, that pushes you over the $94,300 limit, and $5,700 would be taxable at 22%, to the tune of $1,254. So perhaps you’d want to only convert $14,000 instead, and by controlling the size of the conversion, you can minimize your tax liability. 

    You can do some of this tax-bracket management on the income side as well, Reddy says. You can employ a bunching strategy, meaning you make all your stock sales that would cause capital gains in one year and avoid transactions the following year. Or you might be due a lump-sum payment for disability or severance or from an annuity, and you can spread it out instead. “This is where awareness is important,” says Reddy. 

    Charitable giving

    Bunching strategies also are helpful with charitable giving. Losi’s high-income clients are big users of donor-advised funds, which are charitable accounts that allow donors to take a deduction the year they deposit the funds and then distribute them later. “Clients will call and ask me, ‘What do I need to contribute this year to get me out of the 37% bracket?’” Losi says. 

    This works with the lower brackets, too, not just among the rich. If you’re in a high-tax state or paying a mortgage, it might benefit you to see where you are in your tax bracket. If you make a charitable donation of even a few hundred dollars, it could make sense for you to itemize instead of taking the standard deduction, and that extra amount could push you into a lower bracket. 

    Business owners and QBI

    Business owners and sole practitioners are the ones who pay the most attention to their tax brackets, Losi says, especially because of the qualified business income deduction that can reduce taxes on business income by up to 20%. The rules are complicated, and it takes a lot to manage not only where you fall in the brackets, but also the phase-outs for specific trades. 

    For these taxpayers, it may make sense to try to get paid less by clients in a certain calendar year, and pay themselves more. 

    “You can invoice, but tell clients to hold off on payment,” Losi says. “You can accelerate deductions. You can deduct 100% of capital spent for automobiles, desks, chairs — everything [a business] needs to run.”

    Losi also encourages business owners to pay themselves a healthy salary, which can reduce business income, and then set up solo qualified plans and cash-balance pension plans to put that money away pretax. “Heck yeah, cash-balance pension plans,” Losi says. “I’m the trustee of ours.”

    More on investment tax strategy:

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  • Treasury’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction goes poorly, trader says

    Treasury’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction goes poorly, trader says

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    Thursday afternoon’s $24 billion sale of 30-year Treasury bonds drew weaker-than-expected demand, according to Greg Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities in New York, citing the bid-to-cover ratio and yield concession which came in. The 1 p.m. Eastern time auction caps a trio of sales that have taken place since Tuesday, totaling $112 billion, and which were seen as important tests of demand. Treasury yields moved up slightly after the Thursday’s auction results came out, reflecting a further selloff in underlying government debt.

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  • Market Snapshot – MarketWatch

    Market Snapshot – MarketWatch

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    Dow records best three-day gain since April after Fed keeps interest rate steady

    U.S. stocks moved higher to kick off November trading after the Federal Reserve kept its key policy interest rate unchanged, as expected, and the Treasury Department released details of its debt auction plans.

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  • Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

    Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

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    Going back decades, if you wanted to buy or sell a stock on the open market, you had to pay a 2% commission to buy and a 2% commission to sell. Then the advent of discount brokerage, led by Charles Schwab Corp.
    SCHW,
    +1.64%
    ,
    made lower commissions available until eventually, with improved technology and efficiency, the entire industry changed to enable the average investor to avoid commissions completely.

    But the internet hasn’t done much to reduce the cost of selling a home in the U.S. Sellers typically pay a 6% commission to a real-estate agent to list and sell a home, with the seller’s agent splitting that commission with the buyer’s agent. But all of that may change because of a verdict this week in a class-action lawsuit in federal court against the National Association of Realtors.

    Aarthi Swaminathan covers the case, what may happen next and the implications for home sellers and buyers:

    Real-estate advice from the Moneyist


    MarketWatch illustration

    Quentin Fottrell — the Moneyist — works with three readers to answer tricky real-estate questions:

    Economic outlook

    On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have bolstered the case that the central bank is finished raising interest rates for this economic cycle. The federal-funds rate was left in its target range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

    Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, spoke with MarketWatch Editor in Chief Mark DeCambre and said he expected the Fed to succeed in bringing down inflation without pushing the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

    Friday employment numbers: Jobs report shows 150,000 new jobs in October as U.S. labor market cools

    Bond-market trend switches again

    The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year.


    FactSet

    Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than those with short maturities. But the yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year, with 3-month U.S. Treasury bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    having higher yields than 10-year Treasury notes
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.

    There has been elevated demand for long-term bonds, as investors have anticipated a recession and a reversal in Federal Reserve interest-rate policy. When interest rates decline, bond prices rise and vice versa.

    As you can see on the chart above, the yield curve was narrowing until mid-October. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were close to 5% on Oct. 19, but they have been falling the past several days as the three-month yield has remained close to 5.5%.

    In this week’s ETF Wrap, Christine Idzelis reports on where all the money is flowing in the bond market.

    In the Bond Report, Vivien Lou Chen summarizes the action as investors react to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to change its federal-funds-rate target range this week and to other economic news.

    For income-seekers looking to avoid income taxes, here’s a deep dive into municipal bonds, with taxable-equivalent yields and a deeper look at those within four high-tax states.

    Ford’s good news — in the bond market

    Ford Motor Co.’s debt rating has been lifted by S&P to investment-grade.


    Getty Images

    Ford Motor Co.’s
    F,
    +4.14%

    credit rating was upgraded to an investment-grade rating by Standard & Poor’s on Monday. This takes about $67 billion in bonds out of the high-yield, or “junk,” market, as Ciara Linnane reports.

    A stock-market warning based on history

    The original Magnificent Seven.


    Courtesy Everett Collection

    By now you have probably heard the term “Magnificent Seven” used to describe stocks of the tremendous tech-oriented companies that have led this year’s rally for the S&P 500
    SPX
    : Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.52%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.29%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.38%
    ,
    Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +3.45%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.26%

    GOOG,
    +1.39%
    ,
    Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.20%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.66%
    .
    With Tesla’s recent decline, that company is now the ninth-largest holding in the portfolio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    which tracks the benchmark index. Here are the top 10 companies held by SPY (11 stocks, including two common-share classes for Alphabet), with total returns through Thursday:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of SPY portfolio

    2023 total return

    2022 total return

    Total return since end of 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    -0.52%
    7.2%

    37%

    -26%

    1%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +1.29%
    7.1%

    46%

    -28%

    5%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +0.38%
    3.5%

    64%

    -50%

    -17%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +3.45%
    3.0%

    198%

    -50%

    48%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL,
    +1.26%
    2.1%

    44%

    -39%

    -12%

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    +1.20%
    1.9%

    158%

    -64%

    -8%

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +1.39%
    1.8%

    45%

    -39%

    -11%

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    BRK.B,
    +0.80%
    1.8%

    13%

    3%

    17%

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    +0.66%
    1.7%

    77%

    -65%

    -38%

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    -0.98%
    1.4%

    2%

    7%

    9%

    Eli Lilly and Company

    LLY,
    -2.15%
    1.3%

    60%

    34%

    115%

    Sources: FactSet, State Street (for SPY holdings)

    Five of these stocks (including the two Alphabet share classes) are still down from the end of 2021. SPY itself has returned 14% this year, following an 18% decline in 2022. It is still down 7% from the end of 2021.

    Mark Hulbert makes the case that a decade from now, the Magnificent Seven are unlikely to be among the largest companies in the stock market.

    More from Hulbert: These dividend stocks and ETFs have healthy yields that can lift your portfolio

    A different market opportunity: India is seeing a multidecade growth surge. Here’s how you can invest in it.

    The MarketWatch 50


    MarketWatch

    The MarketWatch 50 series is back, with articles and video interviews starting this week, including:

    PayPal soars after earnings report

    PayPal CEO Alex Chriss.


    MarketWatch/PayPal

    After the market close on Wednesday, PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    +1.89%

    announced quarterly results that came in ahead of analysts’ expectations, and the stock soared 7% on Thursday even though the company lowered its target for improving its operating margin.

    In the Ratings Game column, Emily Bary reports on the positive reaction to PayPal’s new CEO, Alex Chriss.

    A less enthusiastic earnings reaction: EV-products maker BorgWarner’s stock suffers biggest drop in 15 years after downbeat sales outlook

    Consumers drive mixed reactions to earnings results

    Apple Inc. reported mixed quarterly results.


    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Here’s more of the latest corporate financial results and reactions. First the good news:

    And now the news that may not be so good:

    Harsh verdict for SBF

    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.


    AP

    It might seem that some legal battles never end, but it took only a year from the collapse of FTX for the cryptocurrency exchange’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, to be convicted on all seven federal fraud and money-laundering charges brought against him. The charges were connected to the disappearance of $8 billion from FTX customer accounts.

    Here’s more reaction and coverage of the virtual-currency industry:

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