Tag: San Francisco 49ers

The Detroit Lions have never won 10 or more games in consecutive seasons. Will that change this year?

Can anything keep the two-time defending Kansas City Chiefs from nabbing the AFC’s top seed? Will Jayden Daniels’ arrival lift the Washington Commanders? Could Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos or Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers land among the league’s bottom feeders?

Let’s go to our experts to answer these questions, with the help of analytics and our eyes on the beat.

After running 10,000 simulations of the 2024 season, Austin Mock’s NFL betting model has calculated an expected win total for every team, from the San Francisco 49ers (11.4 wins) to the Washington Commanders (5.9). (You can see the AFC teams here and the NFC here.) Now, our beat writers are here to answer: Is the model too high, too low or just right regarding the team you cover?

San Francisco 49ers

Win total: 11.4

This feels just right. The 49ers won 13 games in 2022 and 12 games in 2023. Factor in the exhaustion from repeated postseason runs (the 49ers have played 60 games over the past three seasons), and another decline in win total this season would make sense. But the Niners, assuming there’s a resolution to the contractual situations involving Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk, might’ve actually upgraded their roster this offseason. Seven members of their 2024 draft class made the 53-man roster, including a starter at what had been the offense’s weakest position, right guard. And quarterback Brock Purdy is expected to improve with experience. The 49ers’ defense, coming off a down year, has seen a talent overhaul, which could help them stay in the 11- to 12-win range. — David Lombardi

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Kansas City Chiefs

Win total: 11.3

Projecting the Chiefs to have the best record in the AFC is logical. But they could have more than 11 victories, especially if they sweep their two-game home series to start the season against the Ravens and the Bengals. The Chiefs are clearly favored to win their ninth consecutive AFC West crown. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have dominated the division, and the Chiefs have arguably the league’s best kicker in Harrison Butker, who usually gives them a critical advantage in tight games. The biggest concern is if their defense slides back in the rankings with L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Gay and Mike Edwards no longer on the roster. — Nate Taylor

Detroit Lions

Win total: 10.5

The case for the Lions exceeding 10.5 wins is that they won 12 games a year ago with a young roster and obvious holes. This offseason, they bolstered their secondary, added D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport along the defensive line and expect their young players to take a step forward. At the same time, though, the Lions face a first-place schedule, and the division is tougher on paper. There’s a world in which the team is more complete overall but wins fewer games. But I have the Lions at 12 wins again, so it’s a touch low, in my opinion. — Colton Pouncy

Baltimore Ravens

Win total: 10.2

If you could guarantee Lamar Jackson will play 15 games or more, I’d say 10.2 wins is a bit low, simply because of how good Baltimore has been in the regular season with a healthy Jackson. However, you can’t do that, so 10.2 looks just right to me. The Ravens have a solid and deep team, but they play a really tough schedule and they have legitimate questions in two key areas: offensive line and edge rush. Those factors need to be considered. — Jeff Zrebiec

Cincinnati Bengals

Win total: 10.2

The Bengals had a fully healthy Joe Burrow for just five-and-a-half games last year. Their defense looked nothing like its previous self without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They played one of the toughest schedules in the league. Very little went right. They still won nine games. A projection of 10.2 is solid, but I’d be more comfortable going over than under. They have questions, no doubt, but they added veteran safeties, the schedule appears dramatically easier, the offensive line is as solid as Burrow has played behind. As long as Burrow is healthy (all signs are good) with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins outside, 10 wins feels like the floor. — Paul Dehner Jr.

Win total: 10.2

Mock writes, “Ultimately, this division comes down to how well Eagles QB Jalen Hurts plays.” I agree. And that’s why I still feel comfortable about my 12-5 prediction from the spring. Hurts was noticeably more polished in training camp. He was decisive, effective and dangerous on deep throws. The Eagles’ wealth of offensive talent could produce, at the very least, a top-five offense if Hurts can command this system properly. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has demonstrated patience with his head coaches so long as there’s confidence in a competitive path forward. But it’s worth wondering whether a 10-win season would be considered a regression under Nick Sirianni. — Brooks Kubena

Win total: 10.0

Despite Dallas’ three consecutive 12-win seasons, the model’s 10-win projection is right on line with what most would expect from the Cowboys. After winning the NFC East, the Cowboys have a tough first-place schedule, which includes games against the Ravens, 49ers, Lions, Eagles (twice), Texans and Bengals. If they remain mostly healthy in all of the key spots, anywhere between nine wins and 12 wins seems like a fair projection. — Saad Yousuf

Win total: 9.8

Mock has the Packers’ win total as the fifth-highest in the NFC. I think the Packers will win 10 or 11 games, so it’s just about right and, if anything, a tick low. Jordan Love and company won’t need the first half of the season to work out the kinks of unfamiliarity, and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley seems to have his unit firing on all cylinders. The biggest question marks are offensive line depth, the kicker position and youth in the secondary. Shore up at least two of those three and the Packers will be a legitimate title contender. — Matt Schneidman

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Win total: 9.7

This seems just about right. A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I’m sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC’s fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a new offense without wideout Stefon Diggs or center Mitch Morse. The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don’t rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia

Win total: 9.6

It’s hard to argue with this projection — and fascinating how tightly the AFC East teams are grouped. The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins. They had a top-five defense in each of the last two seasons, and the unit is still mostly intact (and could be even better if/when Haason Reddick finally reports). The offense should be vastly improved. Rodgers is obviously a major upgrade over Zach Wilson and last year’s rotation of backups, Breece Hall is fully healthy, Garrett Wilson is ready to break out and GM Joe Douglas did a good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt

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Win total: 9.5

This matches the over/under from BetMGM, so the experts are aligned here. However, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light schedule to start the campaign, I lean toward the over here. I expect coach Mike McDaniel to field another offensive juggernaut while unleashing some new wrinkles that most defenses won’t be able to handle. I’m concerned about Miami’s defensive line without Christian Wilkins but also love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I think Miami gets off to another hot start but will have to fight to get to 10 wins against what looks like a very tough closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello

Win total: 9.4

If the Falcons don’t win at least 10 games, they’ll be disappointed, and they should be. They said they were ready to compete “at the highest level” when they fired Arthur Smith. They guaranteed Kirk Cousins $100 million. They traded for Matthew Judon and signed Justin Simmons. Eighty-one-year-old owner Arthur Blank is pushing all his chips in and making an expensive bet that this team is better than 9.4 wins. — Josh Kendall

Houston Texans

Win total: 9.0

The Texans were a surprise success story last season, going 10-7 and winning the AFC South. Mock projects them for nine wins this season, but I think they could again surpass that. C.J. Stroud has a season of experience under his belt. Bobby Slowik did well as a first-time play caller but will likely find ways to get even more out of Stroud this season, given the additional weapons (including Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon) acquired this offseason. Adding pass rusher Danielle Hunter in free agency should help both Will Anderson Jr. and the Texans’ defense as a whole. DeMeco Ryans’ squad has a good shot at another 10-win season and a return to the playoffs. — Mike Jones

Win total: 8.9

Nine wins feels about right for the Chargers. I had them at 10 in my prediction in May. Consider the extra game the Jim Harbaugh bump. The players are bought in. Harbaugh has led dramatic turnarounds in all of his head-coaching stops — San Diego University, Stanford, the San Francisco 49ers and Michigan. I believe he will have the same impact in Los Angeles. And, of course, the Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in football in Justin Herbert, who looked great in practice last week after returning from his plantar fascia injury. — Daniel Popper

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Win total: 8.8

This feels a little low for a team that exceeded expectations in 2023 and added more resources to both sides of the ball. Injuries will be a major factor early, with the Rams returning multiple key players from absence: Jonah Jackson (shoulder), Puka Nacua (knee) and Darious Williams (hamstring). They should get starting right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) back either in Week 1 or by Week 3. Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson (ankle, suspension) will be back in Week 3. No, there’s no Aaron Donald — but a depleted Rams team won 10 games last season. They will go as quarterback Matthew Stafford goes. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Cleveland Browns

Win total: 8.7

The Browns have a much higher ceiling than 8.7 wins, and internally, they’d say the roster is better than last year’s version that went 11-5 despite having to play five different quarterbacks. But just one quarterback matters in the present and future, and Deshaun Watson just had an unimpressive training camp while coming off of shoulder surgery. He hasn’t played a live snap in almost 10 months and has played 12 games in the last three years. The Browns have a lot of talent, but can they count on Watson? I’d say eight or nine wins feels right. — Zac Jackson

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Win total: 8.2

The Saints entered last year as a no-brainer favorite to win the NFC South with one of the league’s easiest schedules. They only won nine games and missed the playoffs. Their schedule doesn’t seem much tougher this season, but the NFC South improved around them and New Orleans didn’t grow enough along the roster this offseason. These are legitimate reasons as to why the Saints aren’t the favorites in a still seemingly weak division. So an 8.2-win projection feels fair. These projections also indicate the Saints would miss the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, which would likely mean a new coach and new quarterback for the 2025 campaign. — Larry Holder

Win total: 8.2

Seattle went 9-8 thanks to narrow Week 18 victories in each of Pete Carroll’s final two seasons. Mike Macdonald inherited much of the same roster, so even if his new coaching staff is better, this projection feels accurate. The NFC West is a tough division, and Seattle has legitimate questions at inside linebacker and offensive line. Plus there might naturally be some growing pains along the way with an entirely new coaching staff led by a first-year head coach and first-year offensive coordinator. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

Win total: 8.1

The Bears trail the Lions (10.5) and Packers (9.8), but a nine- or 10-win season doesn’t feel like a reach, either. The Bears beat the division-winning Lions last year — and coach Matt Eberflus’ defense should be better this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams will have his rookie moments, but he’s surrounded by talent with receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and running back D’Andre Swift. They’ll all help with Williams’ growing pains. — Adam Jahns

Win total: 8.1

I think this is a 10-win team. And if the Jaguars play closer to the version that went 15-5 from late 2022 to early 2023, they might have 12-win potential. Of course, a lot will have to go right for that to materialize. My biggest concern is the Jags start at the Dolphins, return home for the Browns, then visit the Bills and Texans. If they aren’t on point and fall to 0-4, there’s no telling what that could do to their confidence. But barring a catastrophe of that magnitude, they’ve got enough winnable games over the final three months of the season to exceed the projected 8.1 wins. — Jeff Howe

Pittsburgh Steelers

Win total: 7.6

Mike Tomlin has been the model of consistency, never finishing with a losing record in 17 seasons as coach. The biggest threat to that streak is one of the NFL’s most challenging schedules. The Steelers play in arguably the league’s most competitive division. The backstretch is brutal, with three games — at Baltimore, at Philadelphia and vs. Kansas City — in 10 days in December. Still, it would be hard to bet against Tomlin’s history, making the 7.6 win projection a little low. The remade offensive line and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should help. If Tomlin can get to .500 or better with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, he should be able to do it with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. — Mike DeFabo

Win total: 7.5

The Colts won nine games last year primarily with backup QB Gardner Minshew at the helm. Their schedule is tougher this season, but the belief internally is that a healthy Anthony Richardson can elevate the entire team. I agree that Richardon’s dual-threat abilities make him capable of leading Indianapolis to more wins than Mock’s projected 7.5, though the inexperienced secondary could be a big weakness. Assuming the back end doesn’t completely fall apart, I’ll pencil the Colts in for 10 wins and their first playoff berth since 2020. — James Boyd

Win total: 7.5

Internal expectations and fan expectations are much greater than this. According to Mock’s model, the Bucs are 11th in the NFC and third in the NFC South behind the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs won nine last year, and the general perception is they improved in the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether they improve or slide might depend largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout year in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has replaced Dave Canales. — Dan Pompei

Win total: 7.3

The quarterback selection of Gardner Minshew over Aidan O’Connell didn’t move the needle much, so it’s no surprise that Mock has the Raiders at 7.3 wins, just clearing the Vegas over-under line of 6.5 wins. The defense should be very good, Davante Adams is still one of the best offensive players in the league, and first-round pick Brock Bowers should have a big impact at tight end. Problems could arise if there are any injuries, as the Raiders are not deep and new general manager Tom Telesco is taking the long view with salary-cap space. And if the Raiders get off to a slow start, Adams might call for a trade, so … 7.3 sounds good, but there is some shaky ground. — Vic Tafur

Win total: 7.1

Local optimism is high. And it should be. Kyler Murray is healthy. The talent around him is better. The Cardinals are trending in the right direction. But coming off a four-win first season under coach Jonathan Gannon, 7.1 wins in Year 2 sounds right. GM Monti Ossenfort inherited a significant rebuilding job, and the worst thing he could’ve done was try to do too much too soon. This is the next step. Maximize Murray. Improve defensively. Develop depth. Learn how to win. Reversals can happen quickly, but for the Cardinals, there are no shortcuts. — Doug Haller

Win total: 6.8

There are days when Mock’s projection feels low — and other days when it feels high. Is it underrating Brian Flores’ defense? Is it accurately assessing quarterback Sam Darnold? Maybe yes, maybe no. If you think it’s too high, it’s probably because of the schedule. The Vikings open with the Giants, then face a gauntlet: 49ers, Texans, Packers, Jets, Lions and Rams. Those six teams have incredible talent and high-end coaching. If you see 6.8 wins as too low, you are probably looking at Darnold’s situation alongside Justin Jefferson and head coach Kevin O’Connell and thinking an explosive offense is in store. Both viewpoints make sense. Anyone who thinks they know how it’ll play out is overconfident. — Alec Lewis

Win total: 6.8

This is on the low side of the Titans’ range, but six or seven wins is certainly possible, especially with the tough NFC North on the schedule. This is a very difficult team to project considering the changes and unknowns. A first-time head coach (Brian Callahan) with first-time coordinators (Nick Holz, Dennard Wilson) will rely heavily on draft picks plugged into key roles immediately (left tackle JC Latham, defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat), and hope key veteran acquisitions (L’Jarius Sneed, Calvin Ridley, Chidobe Awuzie, Tony Pollard, Quandre Diggs) have best-case seasons. Oh, and the Titans hope they have a franchise quarterback in Will Levis. They just don’t know yet. — Joe Rexrode

Win total: 6.7

It’s wild to say about a team with a projection of only 6.7 wins, but this seems too high. The Patriots went 4-13 a year ago, parted with the greatest coach of all time and brought back a remarkably similar roster to last season. Drake Maye won’t be starting at quarterback, the wide receiver and offensive line groups both rank among the league’s worst, and the defense got worse in recent weeks after losing its top two pass rushers (Christian Barmore was diagnosed with blood clots and is out indefinitely, while Matthew Judon was traded to the Falcons). — Chad Graff

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New York Giants

Win total: 6.7

This is right on target. The Giants won six games last year and, yes, there was a Murphy’s Law element involved with so many injuries to top players. But it’s not as simple as expecting improvement if the team manages to stay healthier. First, quarterback Daniel Jones has a lengthy injury history, so health isn’t a given. Additionally, the Giants are without some top players from last season’s roster (Saquon Barkley, Xavier McKinney, Leonard Williams). They traded for Brian Burns and drafted Malik Nabers in the first round with the expectation they’ll be game-changers on both sides of the ball. But there are enough question marks with the roster to temper expectations. — Dan Duggan

Win total: 6.4

The model was not kind to the Panthers, who sit ahead of only Denver (6.0) and Washington (5.9). But it feels about right, considering I picked the Panthers to go 6-11 when schedules were released in May. It’s reasonable to think Bryce Young will take a step forward in a new offensive system and with improved blockers and playmakers. But with sizable holes at cornerback and edge rusher, the defense could take a step back. — Joseph Person

Denver Broncos

Win total: 6.0

This is too low. In 16 seasons as an NFL head coach, Sean Payton has never won fewer than seven games. The Broncos went 8-9 last season, then jettisoned a handful of veterans like Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Jeudy. But Wilson’s replacement at quarterback, Bo Nix, looks more ready to run Payton’s offense than I initially expected. A personnel overhaul in the front seven will make the Broncos better against the run. Many players are in Year 2 in their schemes, and it’s been easy to see the impact of that continuity in training camp. It’s fair to sell the Broncos as a playoff team, but seven wins feels like the floor to me. — Nick Kosmider

Washington Commanders

Win total: 5.9

The broad oddsmakers set the win total at 6.5, a number that many Jayden Daniels believers find shockingly low. Mock’s model went even lower with a league-worst 5.9 wins. What the projections cannot easily consider is the Commanders’ renewed competitive spirit under coach Dan Quinn. Daniels’ upside and more weekly consistency should push Washington above Mock’s number, but it might take injury and bounce-of-the-ball luck (and better-than-expected CB and OT play) to reach seven wins or sniff .500. — Ben Standig

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Ryan Kang, Perry Knotts, Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)

The longest offseason in major professional sports will be over by the end of the week. Five NFL teams have already opened training camp. Twenty-three more start on Tuesday, and the remaining four kick off Wednesday. The Hall of Fame Game between the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears is less than 10 days away.

So we can officially say the NFL is back, and the power rankings are just as happy about that as the rest of you. The preseason rankings start where last season’s rankings ended — with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at the top — but there’s been some movement down the line. The Hall of Fame Game participants, for instance, are among the biggest risers because of one young quarterback who has already proven himself and another who everyone expects to soon.

On with the list:

Last season: 11-6 in regular season, Super Bowl champions

The last time the Chiefs failed to make the NFL’s final four, Matthew Stafford was a Lion, Ryan Tannehill was a Dolphin and Ben Roethlisberger was an active player. That was 2017. Since then, Patrick Mahomes has won 15 playoff games (more than all quarterbacks but Tom Brady and Joe Montana) and never finished a season as a starter short of the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes is 28 years old. If he plays as long as Brady, that means 17 more years to pad what could be an otherworldly stat line.

Last season: 12-5, lost Super Bowl

The 49ers are the NFL’s narrative busters. Need a top-10 quarterback to compete at the highest level? Nope. San Francisco has gone to two Super Bowls and two more NFC title games with Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. There are consequences for missing on a top-five quarterback? Not for the Niners. This team traded three first-round picks to draft Trey Lance No. 3 in 2021 and hasn’t missed a beat despite Lance already being off the team. Kyle Shanahan, despite his near misses, might be underpaid.

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Last season: 12-5, lost NFC Championship Game

The Lions have won more games since Nov. 6, 2022 (22), than they did in the previous 1,769 days (18). These are giddy times in Detroit, and the Lions have responded by throwing cash around, extending quarterback Jared Goff, offensive lineman Penei Sewell and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to big-money deals this offseason. Maybe just as importantly, Detroit retained offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who led the Lions to the fifth-best offense in the league last season based on EPA (expected points added) per play, according to TruMedia.

Last season: 10-7, lost in AFC divisional round

For most of the NFL’s history, calling a team the Lions of the AFC would have been fighting words. Not anymore. The Texans are the cross-conference counterparts of the Lions, which is to say they are their conference’s best-vibes team. After C.J. Stroud’s remarkable rookie season, Houston is going all in behind its young quarterback, re-signing tight end Dalton Schultz and adding wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to an offense that scored 45 points against one of the league’s best defenses in Stroud’s first career playoff game. If the Texans can survive being this offseason’s hot team, it could be a special season in Houston.

Last season: 13-4, lost AFC Championship Game

The 2023 Ravens were the NFL’s best team for long stretches. The 2024 Ravens are something different. Baltimore has added Derrick Henry but lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, linebacker Patrick Queen, safety Geno Stone, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, three starting offensive linemen and about 10 percent of a quarterback. Reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson appears to have lost more than 20 pounds. Will he be the same player who has led Baltimore in rushing and passing each of the last five years? Probably.

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Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC wild-card round

In the first four seasons of Deshaun Watson’s career, he had a passer rating of 104.5, a 2.4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and was off target on only 6.4 percent of his throws, according to TruMedia. It’s why the Browns sent three first-round picks, a third and two fourths to the Texans to acquire him. In two seasons in Cleveland, Watson has a passer rating of 81.7, a 1.6 TD-to-interception ratio and has been off target on 15.8 percent of his throws. Last year’s Browns still won 11 games. If Watson and running back Nick Chubb (coming off a knee injury) can return to form this year, Cleveland will be a contender.

Last season: 12-5, lost in NFC wild-card round

In the last three seasons, the Cowboys have won 36 regular-season games and one playoff game. Owner Jerry Jones is so fed up that he … did basically nothing this offseason to improve the team. Head coach Mike McCarthy is back (with a new defensive coordinator — Mike Zimmer, who replaced Dan Quinn). Linebacker Eric Kendricks and running back Royce Freeman were Dallas’ only free-agency additions. Plus, quarterback Dak Prescott will be playing with a $55 million cap hit and in the final year of his contract this season because the Cowboys don’t seem concerned about getting an extension done.

Last season: 9-8, lost in NFC divisional round

Green Bay was the fourth-youngest playoff team in NFL history last season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. In the second half of the season, the Packers’ offense was eighth in the league in scoring (23.7) and fourth in yards per play (6.0), and they won seven of their last 10 games. In the playoffs, Green Bay put 48 points on the Cowboys and then lost by just three to the 49ers in the divisional round. Coach Matt LaFleur and 25-year-old quarterback Jordan Love seem to be getting along fine.

Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC divisional round

Only the Chiefs have a longer active streak of double-digit-win seasons than the Bills’ five. Whether Buffalo can continue that streak is one of the league’s most interesting questions. It lost Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Tyrel Dodson and Leonard Floyd in the offseason. That means more of the load falls on quarterback Josh Allen, who already carries plenty for the Bills. In the last five seasons, no player has averaged more fantasy points per game, according to TruMedia. It’s not an exact match for on-field value, but it’s a pretty good indicator.

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Last season: 11-6, lost in NFC wild-card round

Questions abound in Philly. Will new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s system suit quarterback Jalen Hurts? How will the offensive line hold up without “the other Kelce,” center Jason who, like his brother Travis, is a future Hall of Famer but, unlike his brother, is not dating Taylor Swift and is now retired? But the biggest question is: What the heck happened last season? The Eagles lost six of their last seven games, and their point differential (minus-59) was the fourth worst in the league during that stretch, suggesting something more than personnel fits was amiss with the one-time juggernaut.

Last season: 10-7, lost in NFC wild-card round

The Rams won seven of eight to end the regular season and dropped a one-point game to the Lions in the playoffs. In the offseason, they remade their secondary and fortified their offensive line. And just like that, 38-year-old coach Sean McVay is back in the fray in the NFC. McVay enters his eighth season already in the top 100 of all-time head-coaching wins (70). Just two years ago, he coached a five-win team and the media job offers were piling up. Now, he’s coaching a contender again.

Last season: 11-6, lost in AFC wild-card round

Through Week 15 last season, the Dolphins led the NFL with 31.5 points per game. From Week 16 through a wild-card round playoff loss, they were 30th in scoring with 15.5 points per game. Did defenses figure out the league’s fastest offense? Did injuries catch up to Miami? Was it just that they played better teams down the stretch? Yes to all three, but coach Mike McDaniel has had an entire offseason to adjust, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa should have lots of motivation playing in the final year of his contract.

Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs

Aaron Rodgers is ninth all time in the NFL in passing yards (59,055), and he realistically could pass Dan Marino and Matt Ryan this year to move to seventh. He’s fifth in passing touchdowns (475) and could pass Brett Favre to get to fourth. These numbers are provided here in case anyone forgot Rodgers actually plays football. And usually pretty well. If he can do that again this year after playing only four snaps before snapping his Achilles tendon last year, the Jets will be legitimate contenders. New York returns most of a defense that was second in the NFL in expected points added last season.

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Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs

The defense that quietly helped power Cincinnati to Super Bowl LVI completely fell apart last season. The Bengals gave up 6 yards per play, the worst number in the league. That’s going to have to be corrected if the vaunted return of Joe Burrow is going to mean much. The quarterback played only 10 games last season because of a wrist injury that everyone in Cincinnati hopes is behind him. In the last three seasons, Burrow’s passer rating (101) is the fourth best in the league, and he’s going to need to be special again this year.

Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs

A quick NFL history lesson: This team used to be referred to as the Monsters of the Midway. That’s right. The Bears were once good but have had only one winning season since 2012 and one playoff win since 2006. So why are Bears fans so giddy? No one in the NFL has added more in the offseason. The list includes No. 1 pick quarterback Caleb Williams, No. 9 pick wide receiver Rome Odunze, veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, safety Kevin Byard and running back D’Andre Swift. They also overhauled their entire offensive coaching staff.

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Last season: 5-12, missed playoffs

Jim Harbaugh won 11 games in his second season as the University of San Diego’s head coach. He won 12 games and an Orange Bowl in his fourth year at Stanford. He won double-digit games in each of his first three seasons as coach of the 49ers. He won 10 games in his first year at the University of Michigan and a national title seven years later. The former quarterback is an odd duck, but he can coach. And now he has quarterback Justin Herbert, who has topped 4,700 passing yards in two of his four professional seasons.

Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs

The Falcons gave 35-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins the largest total-money free-agency deal in NFL history (four years worth up to $180 million) and then spent the No. 8 pick on University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. That’s how scarred Falcons owner Arthur Blank and his executives were after two years of alternating Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder as the starting quarterback. Cousins will be playing in the McVay offensive system thanks to Atlanta’s hiring of former Rams defensive coordinator (and before that Atlanta interim head coach) Raheem Morris as head coach.

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Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs

Entering his second season, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is 15th in the NFL’s MVP odds, according to BetMGM. His odds are as good or better than those of Cousins, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson and many more proven players. So it seems the betting markets are putting as much pressure on the young quarterback as the Colts, who seem to be expecting Richardson to be some sort of Superman despite playing only four games in 2024 before a shoulder injury ended his season. He averaged 144 passing yards and 36 rushing yards per game in his four starts, during which Indianapolis went 2-2.

Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs

If you allow Seattle to have a mulligan on the 2009 season, when Jim Mora went a forgettable 5-11 before being fired, the Seahawks have had only two head coaches since 1999. Mike Holmgren held the job for 10 years, and Pete Carroll just finished a 14-year stint. Now it’s Macdonald’s turn. The former Ravens defensive coordinator was a college graduate assistant just 11 seasons ago and is taking over a team that could go either direction. The hopes of Macdonald and the Seahawks rest on quarterback Geno Smith, who is on a career-redefining run in Seattle.

Last season: 10-7, lost in AFC wild-card round

After 17 almost maddeningly consistent seasons in Pittsburgh, it seems like coach Mike Tomlin is going one way or the other in a big way this year. He has two new quarterbacks who come from starting jobs — Russell Wilson and Justin Fields — and a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith. Tomlin has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh, but this offensive mix might end that. Or it might rejuvenate a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. Wilson and Fields both bring dynamic talents to the mix, and Smith has a good history with athletic quarterbacks. It should be fun to watch either way.

Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs

The Jaguars and their quarterback are the NFL’s Rorschach test — is this team the AFC South favorite led by one of the league’s best quarterbacks or is it teetering on the brink of a rebuild? It depends on how you squint. Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in 2021, has topped 4,000 passing yards in each of his two non-Urban Meyer-coached seasons, but his touchdown-to-interception ratio since joining the league (1.5) is 27th in the last three years. That’s Daniel Jones and Garoppolo territory. Meanwhile, Jacksonville went 15-5 from Week 12 of 2022 through Week 12 of 2023 and then lost five of its last six to fall out of playoff contention.

Last season: 9-8, lost in NFC divisional round

Most of the Buccaneers’ offseason work consisted of holding on to their own free agents — quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. chief among them. The status quo feels fine to the Bucs these days after four straight seasons making the playoffs. That has happened only once before in the team’s 47-year history. A fifth straight trip would set a team record but likely will require holding off a restocked Falcons team in the NFC South. Given the recent history of both teams, the Bucs probably like their chances.

Last season: 7-10, missed playoffs

Jefferson became the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league this offseason when he signed a four-year, $140 million contract extension. That raise comes with heightened workplace expectations because instead of playing with a veteran quarterback in Cousins, Jefferson will have some combination of journeyman Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy this season. Jefferson already has 4,825 receiving yards, the most by any player in his first three seasons. He’ll have longtime Packers running back Aaron Jones to help on offense this season.

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Last season: 6-11, missed playoffs

The Titans will attempt to play a football season without Henry this year. Maybe it’ll work, but it feels like a bad idea. Since being selected 45th in the 2016 draft, Henry has accounted for 24 percent of Tennessee’s yards from scrimmage. In place of the bruising Henry, new head coach Brian Callahan has added running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver Calvin Ridley to pair with DeAndre Hopkins around young quarterback Will Levis.

Last season: 9-8, missed playoffs

New Orleans’ cold war against the salary cap continues. The Saints, who are scheduled to be $88 million over the cap next year, are paying a lot of old players a lot of money this year. Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Derek Carr and Taysom Hill, all 29 or older, are their highest-paid players and on the back end of their peaks. If free-agency addition Chase Young can jump-start his career, it will help.

Last season: 8-9, missed playoffs

The Raiders signed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to the third-largest free-agency contract of this offseason, so they’re not acting like a rebuilding team. Just a thought, maybe it’s time they did. Las Vegas has had only two winning seasons since 2002 and will be quarterbacked by Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew this season. In defensive tackle Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams, the Raiders have two of the most coveted trade pieces in the league. The Raiders can miss the playoffs without Crosby and Adams the same as they will with them, and they could restock with lots of high draft picks if they move them.

Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs

The Commanders signed a host of second-tier free agents in March, but the big move came in April when they drafted Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick. It looks to be a long build behind Daniels. The Commanders were 25th in scoring (19.35 ppg) and last in points allowed (30.5 per game) last season. Former Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn was hired in the offseason to fix things after a long courtship with Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson proved unfruitful.

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Last season: 6-11, missed playoffs

Giants fans should keep Oct. 19 clear on their calendar. That’s when the Georgia Bulldogs will be playing the Texas Longhorns, and chances are at least fair the Giants’ next quarterback will be on the field. With Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, the 2025 quarterback draft class should have plenty of options. Of course, maybe Daniel Jones (and his $41 million, soon-to-be $58 million cap hit) will be the answer. His career 22-36-1 record and career 6.6 yards-per-attempt average, which ranks 39th in the NFL in the last five years, would suggest otherwise, though.

Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs

The first Patriots season without Bill Belichick as head coach since Bill Clinton was president starts with a question at quarterback. How long can veteran Jacoby Brissett hold off No. 3 pick Drake Maye? That’ll be up to new head coach Jerod Mayo, the former New England linebacker and linebackers coach. Both Maye and Mayo should get some grace as they start their careers because New England is 29-38 in the last four seasons (yes, that’s how long Brady has been gone).

Last season: 4-13, missed playoffs

The Cardinals enter coach Jonathan Gannon’s second season with more optimism than has been earned by the team’s eight wins in the last two seasons. Quarterback Kyler Murray got some help this offseason in the form of No. 4 pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but it’s the defense that really needs a boost. Arizona gave up the second-most points (455) in the NFL last season. The Cardinals have been the most generous team in the league over the last two seasons, allowing 904 points.

Last season: 8-9, missed playoffs

Sean Payton’s career post-Drew Brees hasn’t gone much better than Belichick’s did after Brady left New England. Payton is 17-17 in two seasons without Brees — one in New Orleans and last year in Denver. Payton thinks he’s found the answer in rookie quarterback Bo Nix, whom the Broncos took with the 12th pick of the first round. Not many people agree with him. Nix was widely considered a second-round prospect who padded his college numbers in a quarterback-friendly offense at Oregon. In fact, Denver’s entire quarterback room — Nix, Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson — makes it seem like Payton just wants to prove how good he is as a quarterbacks coach.

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Last season: 2-15, missed playoffs

Maybe the Panthers really, really wanted Dave Canales as their head coach. Or, maybe more high-profile candidates were scared off by the combination of owner David Tepper and quarterback Bryce Young. Canales had a nice year as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator in 2023, but it was his only season as a coordinator. If he can reverse Young’s career track, none of that will matter. The former Alabama quarterback’s 5.5 yards per attempt in his rookie season were the fewest for any quarterback in the last eight seasons.

(Top photo of C.J. Stroud: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

The NFL Draft is complete, which means the country’s most dominant sports league will now take a short break from dominating television ratings and the athletic world’s oxygen (no offense to Schedule Release Day or the social media teams that work so hard to make that fun). But before we get started on summer, the Power Rankings will assess where everyone stands after their rookie additions.

Post-free agency rank: 1

Dane Brugler’s draft ranking: 13

The Chiefs have managed to muddle through just fine in the two seasons since trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. In fact, they’ve won two Super Bowls. Still, they seem to have decided a three-peat might be easier with another jet-pack wide receiver. That’s why they traded up for Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL combine history (4.21).

Post-free agency rank: 2

Brugler’s draft ranking: 25

Did the 49ers take Florida wide receiver Ricky Pearsall because they plan to trade Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel? Or did they did do it because coach Kyle Shanahan just wants another tough-as-nails wide receiver to terrorize defenses? We don’t know yet, but they did strengthen their defense with two defensive backs (Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha) who will help right away.

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Post-free agency rank: 3

Brugler’s draft ranking: 3

Detroit was 28th last season in defensive passing EPA so it used its first two picks on cornerbacks. Sensible enough. Then the Lions returned to their contrarian form by using their third pick (a fourth-rounder, which they acquired by trading away a 2025 third-rounder) on a Tongan offensive tackle from Canada (Giovanni Manu) whom Brugler projected as a priority free agent. That’s the wacky Brad Holmes-Dan Campbell Lions we’ve come to love here.

Post-free agency rank: 6

Brugler’s draft ranking: 12

Baltimore did Baltimore things in the draft, stockpiling players at premium positions up and down the board. The beauty of the Ravens’ approach is they never seem to need immediate help. This is still the team that led the NFL in point margin last year (plus-203). Second-round offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten could end up being one of the steals of the draft.

Post-free agency rank: 4

Brugler’s draft ranking: 28

The Texans added a lot of players (nine) but nobody who is expected to move the needle much this season. Having no first-round pick this year is the price they paid for wheeling and dealing in last year’s draft. It’s a price they were happy to pay considering they got quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge Will Anderson Jr. in that draft, which is why they’re still high on this list.

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Post-free agency rank: 5

Brugler’s draft ranking: 21

While everyone’s draft focus was on the Falcons saying they were trying to turbocharge the Packers’ quarterback succession model, Green Bay might have quietly done it again. The Packers picked Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt in the seventh round. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound Pratt might have to wait a long time if he’s going to succeed Jordan Love, but he’s more than worth the gamble at pick No. 245 after starting 44 college games and throwing 90 career touchdowns.

Post-free agency rank: 9

Brugler’s draft ranking: 10

For 51 weeks of the year, it feels like the Cowboys are all over the map. Somebody, usually the owner, is saying quizzical things. Expectations are being elevated and then left unmet. And then comes draft week, and Cowboys just quietly go about doing a very good job. It’s why they get away with all the other stuff. Dallas got value with all three of its top picks, and second-round edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland could be a star. (Adding back Ezekiel Elliott in free agency doesn’t move the needle much at this point.)

Post-free agency rank: 7

Brugler’s draft ranking: 30

It’s tough to add much help when your first pick is at No. 54, but Cleveland was still paying bills from the Deshaun Watson trade. The good news is that trade is now officially complete, and the Browns will have a first-round draft pick in 2025 for the first time since 2021. Unless, of course, they make another deal.

Post-free agency rank: 8

Brugler’s draft ranking: 18

Let’s take a moment to visualize Cincinnati’s dream offensive line of the future. The Bengals used their first-round pick on 6-8, 340-pound Amarius Mims even though Mims made only eight college starts. Cincinnati already has 6-8, 345-pound Orlando Brown Jr. entrenched at left tackle and 6-8, 355-pound Trent Brown penciled in on the right side on a one-year contract. It’s possible Mims won’t start this season, but if he does, it will be fun to watch.

Post-free agency rank: 10

Brugler’s draft ranking: 20

The draft was another reminder that the Bills are in a controlled rebuild. They traded all the way out of the first round to add more affordable assets to the roster. The good news is they still came away with a pretty good receiver with their first pick, taking Florida State’s Keon Coleman with the first choice of the second round. If Coleman can develop a quick connection with Josh Allen, it will go a long way toward stabilizing Buffalo’s reset.

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Post-free agency rank: 16

Brugler’s draft ranking: 4

After grabbing two of the top corners early in the draft, Philadelphia added some potential high-reward players in Round 3 and later. Edge rusher Jalyx Hunt out of Houston Christian (6-4, 252 pounds) is a perfect example. Hunt started his career as an Ivy League safety, but he had the fifth-longest arms of any edge rusher in this class and is an explosive athlete who could turn into a steal.

Post-free agency rank: 11

Brugler’s draft ranking: 24

Jared Verse must feel special. That’s whom Los Angeles picked with its first first-round pick since 2016 (which it spent on Jared Goff). Verse, and his former Florida State teammate Braden Fiske, a defensive tackle, will help a defense that finished 22nd last year in points allowed (22.2). Now if they can keep quarterback Matthew Stafford happy (he wants a contract adjustment with more guaranteed money, NFL Network reported during the draft), they’ll be a sleeper NFC title game candidate.

Post-free agency rank: 23

Brugler’s draft ranking: 1

No one moved up more in this edition of the Power Rankings than the Bears, who drafted uber-talented quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick and elite wide receiver prospect Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick. They made only five draft picks, but that’s not doing anything to slow down expectations in Chicago. The Bears have one division title in the last 13 years, but they’re expected to be true challengers to the Lions and Packers this year.

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Post-free agency rank: 14

Brugler’s draft ranking: 14

The Colts landed two of the draft’s most talented players with their first two picks, which is impressive considering those picks came at 15 and 52. They did have to take on some risk to do it, though. UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu medically retired from football at one point in his college career, and Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell raised some concerns about non-football issues in the scouting community. (Don’t tell GM Chris Ballard about that second part, though. He doesn’t want to hear it.)

Colts GM Chris Ballard was preachin’ about the pre-draft reports on AD Mitchell 🗣️pic.twitter.com/KqyJFwsLY8

— Jon Tweets Sports (@jontweetssports) April 27, 2024

Post-free agency rank: 12

Brugler’s draft ranking: 22

Jason Licht might be the NFL’s poster boy for patience. Licht has been the Buccaneers’ general manager since 2014. In four of his first five seasons, Tampa Bay finished last in the NFC South. Now the Bucs have won the division three years in a row, and Licht seems to keep bringing in good players. This year, he got every analyst’s favorite under-the-radar offensive lineman, Duke’s Graham Barton.

Post-free agency rank: 13

Brugler’s draft ranking: 23

Mike McDaniel is committed to the bit. The head coach of the NFL’s fastest team traded up to take the second-fastest running back in this year’s draft in Round 4 (Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright) and then drafted a high school sprinting state champion — Virginia wide receiver Malik Washington — in the fifth round. Give him credit, too, for getting big guys in the first two rounds in edge Chop Robinson and offensive tackle Patrick Paul.

Post-free agency rank: 15

Brugler’s draft ranking: 17

The Jets drafted an Aaron Rodgers support staff, getting offensive tackle Olu Fashanu, wide receiver Malachi Corley and running back Braelon Allen with their first three picks. Fashanu might not start right away, but he has that kind of talent, and Corley should join Mike Williams and Garrett Wilson in the starting lineup immediately.

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Post-free agency rank: 22

Brugler’s draft ranking: 2

Whoever ends up playing quarterback for the Steelers (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are the contenders, in case you hadn’t heard), he should have plenty of protection. Pittsburgh took three offensive linemen, including two of the feistiest in this draft (tackle Troy Fautanu and center Zach Frazier), with their first two picks.

Post-free agency rank: 18

Brugler’s draft ranking: 16

Seattle’s first two picks weigh a combined 614 pounds, so we know general manager John Schneider, in his first draft post-Pete Carroll, wanted to rebuild the Seahawks’ trenches. Defensive tackle Bryron Murphy II (6-foot, 297 pounds) might end up being the best defensive player in this draft, and guard Christian Haynes (6-3, 317) will provide immediate offensive line depth and a possible Day 1 starter.

Post-free agency rank: 19

Brugler’s draft ranking: 15

If J.J. McCarthy is as good as (or even close to as good as) Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will have had the best draft of the year. If he’s not the guy, then Minnesota will have let a solid veteran quarterback leave and then expended a lot of draft assets only to fail to answer the quarterback question. Getting Alabama edge Dallas Turner at No. 17 is a nice touch either way.

Post-free agency rank: 26

Brugler’s draft ranking: 6

Jim Harbaugh stuck to his guns. After saying for weeks leading up to the draft that his team placed a premium on offensive linemen, he passed on two elite wide receiver prospects (Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze) to take offensive tackle Joe Alt fifth. “Offensive linemen we look at as weapons,” Harbaugh said. “Offensive line is the tip of the spear.”

Post-free agency rank: 17

Brugler’s draft ranking: 32

The talk of the draft, but not for the right reasons, the Falcons passed on their best chance to make the 2024 team better by drafting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick. It might turn out to be a genius move for the future, but it won’t help this year with Penix sitting behind Kirk Cousins. The five front-seven defenders they drafted after Penix might help, though.

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Post-free agency rank: 28

Brugler’s draft ranking: 9

The Commanders completed their extreme home makeover (the owner, general manager and head coach are all brand new) with their quarterback of the future. At least, that’s the hope. Former LSU quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels was the most physically dynamic quarterback on the board, but he does not come without risk. Should be a fun season in Washington, which would be new, too.

Post-free agency rank: 29

Brugler’s draft ranking: 8

The Patriots had the good fortune to be picking third in a draft that had three highly regarded quarterback prospects. And they had the good sense to simply take North Carolina’s Drake Maye instead of trading the pick. New England signed Jacoby Brissett in free agency, so it can afford to give Maye plenty of time to get ready before throwing him into an offense that isn’t good enough to help him as a rookie.

Post-free agency rank: 21

Brugler’s draft ranking: 11

The Raiders were rumored to be in the quarterback trade market but stayed in their draft slot and took the best player available — Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. It was a very un-Vegas move. Then they compounded the common sense by taking offensive linemen with their next two picks.

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Post-free agency rank: 20

Brugler’s draft ranking: 29

The Jaguars like LSU players, and they don’t much care what everyone else thinks of their new players. Jacksonville started the draft by taking wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., the first of three Tigers it drafted. The next eight players all ranked among some of the biggest reaches in the draft based on consensus mock draft rankings.

Post-free agency rank: 27

Brugler’s draft ranking: 7

The Giants passed on an opportunity to get out of the Daniel Jones business and really shake up the draft by taking a quarterback with the sixth pick. Instead, they went with dynamic wide receiver Malik Nabers in hopes he’ll help lift Jones to another level. If that doesn’t work, New York can exit Jones’ contract pretty easily after this year. It did bring in Drew Lock as a veteran contingency plan.

Post-free agency rank: 24

Brugler’s draft ranking: 26

The Titans got bigger in the draft. A lot bigger, using their first pick on 342-pound offensive tackle JC Latham and their second pick on 366-pound defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat. The Sweat pick in the second round (No. 38) raised eyebrows because he wasn’t expected to go nearly that high, but if he matures and can keep his weight in check, he could be a superstar. Latham is expected to be a Day 1 starter.

Post-free agency rank: 31

Brugler’s draft ranking: 5

This was the draft Arizona had been waiting for. The Cardinals had seven of the first 90 picks. Teams generally hope to get at least starting-quality players out of that type of draft capital. If Arizona did that, its turnaround could begin now.

Post-free agency rank: 30

Brugler’s draft ranking: 19

The Saints might have stumbled into their next starting quarterback … or into a quarterback controversy. New Orleans drafted South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler with the 150th pick. Given current starter Derek Carr’s sometimes shaky hold on the job and Rattler’s NFL arm, Saints fans might be calling for a change by midseason.

Post-free agency rank: 25

Brugler’s draft ranking: 31

The Falcons’ quarterback selection kept Denver off the national hot seat. The Broncos took Oregon quarterback Bo Nix at No. 12, which was 32 spots higher than The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him ranked. If it works, Sean Payton can turn Denver around quickly. If it doesn’t, it’ll be another in a series of very curious Broncos moves.

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Post-free agency rank: 32

Brugler’s draft ranking: 27

Owner David Tepper stole the show again. And, again, not in a good way. Tepper turned the draft weekend narrative on himself when he stopped at a local bar to question the owner about a snarky sign out front. There’s a reason Carolina has occupied this spot in the rankings for so long.

(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)