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Tag: Russian politics

  • Saakashvili fears for his life in Georgian detention

    Saakashvili fears for his life in Georgian detention

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    Georgia’s former President Mikheil Saakashvili says he fears for his life in detention by the authorities in Tbilisi, while medical reports seen by POLITICO reveal traces of “mercury and arsenic” in his hair and nails, and lacerations “throughout his body.”

    A personal enemy of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Saakashvili was arrested when he returned to his homeland from a self-imposed exile in October 2021. In exclusive audio tapes obtained by POLITICO, the pro-Western, U.S.-educated lawyer said he lost consciousness on several occasions after beatings by his captors.

    Increasing evidence about his worsening condition is likely to ramp up international pressure on the government in Tbilisi, led by the Georgian Dream party, which many Georgians fear is seeking to preserve good relations with the Kremlin. In a sign that the treatment of Saakashvili could also throw up a significant hurdle to the country’s EU bid, the European Parliament passed a resolution last week seeking his release on “humanitarian grounds.”

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also called for Saakashvili to be set free, offering him a place in a Ukrainian clinic and saying his continued detention by the Georgian authorities is an act of cruelty.

    In a sign of his frailty, Saakashvili appeared gaunt and emaciated in a video appearance before a Georgian court on Thursday.

    A few weeks ago, he was visited by his American lawyer, Massimo D’Angelo, and two doctors, in the Tbilisi clinic where he is held. Recordings of their conversations were shared with POLITICO. 

    Asked whether he was “in constant fear for (his) life and safety,” Saakashvili answered: “Yes, for sure.”

    The former president said he “lost consciousness” on several occasions, after “many episodes” where he was “beaten” by prison guards.

    ‘Then I blacked out’

    “They tried to squeeze my hands and to grab me and to pull me down to the floor,” he recounted. “And then I blacked out.”

    These events “have clinical features highly suggestive of seizures,” according to the report from one of the physicians who examined Saakashvili. He had “lacerations … throughout his body, including the left arm and forearm,” the report added.

    Traces of “mercury and arsenic” were found in his hair and nail samples, which were collected during that visit, according to a toxicology report seen by POLITICO. 

    It concludes that Saakashvili suffers from “heavy metal poisoning,” putting him at a “significant increased risk of mortality if he is not immediately transferred out of Georgia and properly treated.”

    In a statement published on Facebook on Tuesday, the Georgian Penitentiary service said it offered to conduct its own toxicology analysis in late November, but claims Saakashvili refused.

    Asked if he suspected he was being poisoned, Saakashvili said: “Well, everything could happen here. But I don’t know.” 

    ‘Hung by his balls’

    Saakashvili became president at 37, in January 2004 — just weeks after storming parliament in Tbilisi along with thousands of demonstrators, forcing his predecessor to resign.

    He served two consecutive terms until 2013, pushing a pro-Western agenda in the Caucasian republic.

    Saakashvili became a personal enemy of Putin, who famously accused Saakashvili of triggering the war between the two countries in August 2008 and said he should be “hung by his balls.”

    He then fled his country in 2014, and spent most of his next seven tumultuous years in exile in Ukraine, where he was briefly appointed governor of the Odesa region, later arrested for forming a “criminal group” and then freed three days later.

    In 2018, he was sentenced in absentia by a Georgian court to a six-year prison term on abuse of power charges, which he says are politically motivated.

    The ex-president was arrested in Georgia in October 2021, shortly after he had returned home in an unexpected effort to boost his United National Movement party in municipal elections.

    After his arrest, Saakashvili went on a 50-day hunger strike, which caused significant damage to his health.

    He has been detained ever since.

    European Dream imperiled

    The case now looks set to hamper Georgia’s efforts to join the European Union. 

    Georgia applied for membership last March, together with Ukraine and Moldova. But, unlike the other two, it was not granted candidate status, and will have to implement several reforms first.

    Saakashvili’s situation is “symbolic” and “one of the main indicators of how the Georgian judiciary works,” together with that of another jailed political opponent, broadcaster Nika Gvaramia, European lawmaker Anna Fotyga told POLITICO.

    These “will be important factors while assessing Georgia’s application,” said Fotyga, who sits in the EU-Georgia Parliamentary Association Committee.

    MEP Raphaël Glucksmann warned: “If Saakashvili dies in jail, it’s the end of Georgia’s European fate, and a shame for European leaders.”

    “Doors are wide open for Georgia if the government makes gestures that can reassure us on rule of law issues,” added the Frenchman, who is a former adviser and “personal friend” of Saakashvili.

    Earlier this month, Georgian Dream Chairman Irakli Kobakhidze said Saakashvili could not be released because it would “destabilize the country,” Georgian news agency InterPressNews reported.

    Last week, Kobakhidze called the European Parliament’s resolution asking for Saakashvili’s release a “manifestation of corruption,” according to InterPressNews.

    Pointing to the corruption scandal that is rocking the EU, he said the resolution reflected “corruption problems and oligarchic influences that are clearly visible in the European Parliament.”

    If the authorities do not budge, it will pit them against their own people, Glucksmann said. According to the latest polls, 85 percent of Georgians support EU membership.

    ‘All about politics’

    Yet, a growing number of Georgians fear that their government is moving closer to Moscow under Georgian Dream, the ruling party, in power since 2012.

    Its founder, former chairman and ex-Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, has close ties to Russia, where he built his fortune in the 1990s. 

    Officially no longer involved in politics, the billionaire is still widely believed to be pulling the strings.

    Saakashvili claims he is a “political prisoner” and says his incarceration “is all about politics.”

    “He is dying in a Georgian jail, at the hands of an oligarch that made his fortune in Russia,” said Glucksmann, the French MEP, calling it “an incredible injustice.”

    “He was Putin’s personal enemy. Now, he’s Putin prisoner,” Glucksmann added.

    Contacted by POLITICO, Georgian Dream Chairman Kobakhidze was not available for comment.

    Dato Parulava contributed reporting.

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    Nicolas Camut

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  • Drone attack hits Russia’s Engels airbase for second time in a month

    Drone attack hits Russia’s Engels airbase for second time in a month

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    An overnight drone attack on Monday targeted the Engels airbase deep inside Russia for the second time this month, killing three servicemen in what appears to be a renewed sign of Ukraine’s readiness to target offensive threats way beyond its border areas.

    Russian Telegram channels reported a strong explosion and a fire, while Russia’s state-run Ria-Novosti news agency, citing the defense ministry, said air defenses downed a Ukrainian drone heading towards the base. Engels air base is located about 600 km northeast of the Ukrainian border.

    Delivering a symbolic blow, this second long-range attack on one of Russia’s most strategically important bases — home to nuclear-capable bombers — came on the same day the Russian army was celebrating the 107th anniversary of the creation of its air defense units.

    The previous attack happened on December 5.  New York Times has reported that Ukraine carried out the attack with drones and the help of a military reconnaissance unit coordinating it deep inside Russian territory. Russian authorities claimed that attack damaged two planes, killed three servicemen and wounded four others.

    On Monday, locals reported a strong blast in the same airfield but the Russian defense ministry claimed no significant damage was done to its aircraft.

    Ukraine has not taken responsibility for either strike.

    “There is absolutely no threat to residents. Civil infrastructure facilities were not damaged,” Roman Busargin, governor of the Saratov region, said in a statement.

    “Law enforcement agencies have been investigating the incident at a military facility.”

    Busargin also issued a warning about criminal liability for spreading false information, claiming that news on the incident published in media and by citizens will be promptly sent to law enforcement agencies.

    Engels airfield is a base for Russian strategic bombers used to carry missile strikes against Ukraine. In addition, those bombers are also a part of Russia’s nuclear triad, as they can carry nuclear warheads.

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    Veronika Melkozerova

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  • Ukraine takes two steps forward, one step back in anti-corruption fight

    Ukraine takes two steps forward, one step back in anti-corruption fight

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    KYIV — Even when the Russians are invading your country, that doesn’t stop the clock when it comes to sweeping out corruption and fixing the judiciary in line with EU convergence criteria.

    With the EU set to issue reports on Kyiv’s progress in March and then again in October, Ukraine’s advances on rule of law are swifter than expected, but it’s a case of two steps forward and one (very worrying) step back.

    For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has declared that his country’s “future is in the EU,” it is vital to maintain momentum, when he knows Kyiv’s membership faces resistance from traditional EU members, whose powers would be diluted by such a big new member. France’s President Emmanuel Macron said in May that Kyiv was “in all likelihood decades” from EU membership, and Western European countries express constant concerns about insecurity, corruption and the cost of rebuilding a nation shattered by war.

    In that context, Ukraine is now moving surprisingly quickly. The appointment of a new chief prosecutor has given the fight against graft a boost with many high-profile cases finally resulting in sentences. The Ukrainian parliament also liquidated the Kyiv Administrative District Court, infamous as the most corrupt court in Ukraine. 

    On the downside, however, concern is now growing over the Constitutional Court, with its supreme legal oversight that can overrule government decisions. A new reform threatens to allow political interference in a body that would filter candidates for judges. This could throw a major hurdle in the path of Ukraine’s European aspirations. Both the European Commission and the Venice Commission, a Council of Europe advisory body on constitutional law, have already sounded the alarm.

    Shutting Ukraine’s most corrupt court

    Ukraine’s liquidation of the Kyiv Administrative District Court is being widely viewed as one of the most positive steps in the battle against corruption, but it didn’t come easily.

    Zelenskyy submitted the bill to kill off the court as a priority back in April 2021. However, the Ukrainian parliament did so only on December 13, four days after the U.S. Department of State sanctioned its chairman, Pavlo Vovk, for soliciting bribes in return for interfering in judicial and other public processes. 

    The U.S. sanction on the court’s head judge was the final straw, said Mykhailo Zhernakov, chairman of the board of the Dejure Foundation, a nongovernmental organization focusing on legal reform.

    But Vovk’s removal was also the fruit of intense pressure from Ukrainian civil society groups that exposed the court’s misdeeds and anti-corruption organizations that investigated its lead judges.  

    In 2020, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) released the so-called Vovk tapes — wiretaps of both Administrative Court judges and top lawyers in connection to a criminal case against Vovk — which revealed a large number of fake lawsuits, unlawful rulings and pressure by Vovk on judges and officials.  

    “What made the Kyiv Administrative District Court so powerful was its unique jurisdiction that covered not only local authorities of Kyiv, but also all the government bodies located in Kyiv. And that means all government bodies,” Zhernakov said. “That broad jurisdiction gave them an enormous concentration of power. And that is why it must be divided with the creation of the new administrative court.” 

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

    After the tapes were published by local investigative journalists, the public got an insight into massive obstruction of justice and bribery flourishing at the highest level. All of the judges and officials identified on the tapes deny their authenticity to this day, however.  

    Vovk himself called the liquidation of the court “a rushed decision” by parliament, adopted under pressure from “certain activists and lobbyists groups.” British Ambassador Melinda Simmons, by contrast, called it a “good day for judicial reform.”

    Rostyslav Kravets, a lawyer defending many Ukrainian judges, said the accusations against Vovk were all fabricated and slammed the court reform as “backed by foreign forces.” 

    Activists and Ukraine’s international partners have indeed repeatedly asserted that foreign experts should guarantee transparent competition over appointments in the Ukrainian judicial system, highly infiltrated by political connections, but Kravets resented the international pressure.

    “This is wrong. Can you imagine me coming to London to help them elect judges?” Kravets said. “Europe has been trying to sell the idea that all judges in Ukraine are criminals, who take bribes. That forced many to leave their posts or rule in favor of unlawful decisions.”

    A second step forward

    The second major advance has come with the appointment of Oleksandr Klymenko as the chief anti-corruption prosecutor.

    In 2021, the notorious Kyiv Administrative District Court blocked the appointment of the former detective from the NABU anti-corruption bureau. Klymenko became famous for investigating a bribery case against another top official in Zelenskyy’s administration: Oleg Tatarov, deputy head of the president’s office. Although Tatarov was charged with bribery, his case was transferred from the jurisdiction of independent anti-corruption bodies to the security service of Ukraine. Shortly afterward, the case died.

    Deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, who is responsible for law enforcement, Oleg Tatarov | Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty images

    Tatarov publicly promised to prove his innocence and said the case against him was a personal vendetta by Artem Sytnyk, then head of the NABU.

    Only in July this year was Klymenko appointed as the new head of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutors Office after almost two years of foot-dragging and tremendous pressure from international partners. “Independent anti-corruption infrastructure is an important component of democracy in Ukraine,” Andriy Yermak, head of the president’s office, said in a statement on Klymenko’s appointment.

    Since Klymenko took over, several graft investigations were unblocked, with former high officials ending up in courts, pre-trial detention centers or paying fines.  

    The big step back

    On the same day that Ukraine liquidated the administrative court, however, it made a major misstep on reforming its all-important Constitutional Court.

    On December 13, Ukraine’s parliament voted on a law to reform the Constitutional Court, but watchdogs pointed out the potential for political interference in the way judges are appointed in the new system.

    The new procedure establishes an advisory group of three government officials and three independent experts with the same number of votes during the selection of judges. They would choose candidates by a simple majority vote. The decision of the group is also not final, making it possible for candidates who did not pass the evaluation to still run for Constitutional Court seats.

    On December 19, the Venice Commission recommended changing the new law and introducing a seventh member to the advisory group to give the independent experts a casting vote during the selection. It also recommended making the decisions of the advisory group binding, making it impossible for candidates with negative evaluations to become Constitutional Court judges.  

    Only the next day, however, Zelenskyy, on his way from the frontline city of Bakhmut to Washington, signed the bill into law, ignoring the Venice Commission’s recommendation. 

    “Simple majority voting means that independent experts will need the votes of the political appointees from the government to select a candidate to the next stage. With these kind of rules, the advisory group won’t be able to push through independent candidates,” said Zhernakov from the Dejure Foundation.  

    Ukraine’s reformists need pressure from abroad

    Ukrainian civil society groups called on international partners to keep up their pressure over the Constitutional Court reform. Zhernakov argued that, because of the Russian invasion, some foreign partners were now shying away from public criticism of Kyiv in order not to play into the hands of Russia or of Ukraine’s critics in the EU.

    “Due to Zelenskyy’s well-deserved popularity, international partners prefer not to criticize Ukraine as harshly as they did before as they don’t want to undermine him in any way during active warfare. But there has to be a red line,” Zhernakov said.   

    On December 23, the European Commission finally weighed in. Ana Pisonero, spokesperson for enlargement, said the Commission expected Ukrainian authorities to fully address the Venice Commission recommendations, and would monitor the process.  

    Vitaliy Shabunin, the head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, a Kyiv-based watchdog, said in a statement that, if not changed, the new selection procedure would give effective control over the Constitutional Court to the president’s office. The president’s office did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

    Ukrainian anti-corruption campaigner Vitaly Shabunin | Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty images

    “This is a fantastic risk. The Constitutional Court is the only institution that currently limits political power in the country. And precisely because it is not controlled by the government, it can control the government,” Zhernakov said.

    In a sign of the Constitutional Court’s importance, it ignited a crisis in 2020 when it recognized certain parts of Ukraine’s law as unconstitutional. That decision canceled public access to the electronic declaration of assets, as well as criminal punishment for lies in electronic declarations. Those changes practically paralyzed the fight against corruption in Ukraine, the National Agency on Corruption Prevention reported. The court’s decision was criticized by the Venice Commission and condemned by international society. 

    More than a thousand officials avoided responsibility for lying in declarations, and only the efforts of the authorities and the public made it possible to neutralize the threat to the anti-corruption infrastructure.  

    Civil society and international partners with the help of Zelenskyy managed to clean the Constitutional Court, as well as other high judicial authorities. And the ex-chairman of the court fled abroad.  

    When asked why Zelenskyy had now signed such a controversial law, Zhernakov said that while the Ukrainian government has been doing a lot to bring Ukraine closer to the EU, there are still people in the president’s office resisting change.

    “And while Zelenskyy is in Bakhmut or in the U.S., they are slipping in things like this. Because they want to keep control over the key legislative institutions,” Zhernakov said.  

    Civil society is getting ready to fight back, although now the space for criticism is limited because of war. Zhernakov said the risk was that Russia would unfairly use criticism like that over the Constitutional Court to cast Ukraine as an undemocratic and corrupt country.

    “Usually, Russian propaganda is baseless and can be refuted with simple fact-checking. But when instead of EU integration reforms the authorities sign the laws like the Constitutional Court one, they give not just a weapon, but a HIMARS to Russian propaganda,” Zhernakov said.

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    Veronika Melkozerova

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  • Ukrainians prep for a possible Russian nuclear attack

    Ukrainians prep for a possible Russian nuclear attack

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    KYIV — There’s a nuclear threat hanging over Ukraine.

    The atomic saber rattling by the Kremlin ranges from President Vladimir Putin’s threat to defend illegally annexed Ukrainian territory “by all means available,” to increasingly unhinged comments from former President Dmitry Medvedev and Moscow’s (false) hints that Ukraine is developing a nuclear “dirty bomb” — something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned might be Russia preparing for a so-called false flag attack.

    For many Ukrainians, these are far from empty words and the country is getting ready.

    The Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation in downtown Kyiv has one bomb shelter in the carpark below the building to protect staff from conventional Russian attacks and another to be used in case of a nuclear attack.

    “The second shelter is equipped accordingly. It has a supply of medicines, food, drinking and distilled water, flashlights and batteries,” said TV star Serhiy Prytula, who heads the eponymous foundation.

    “[Predicting the actions of] the Russian military and political leadership is always difficult if you use normal logic. We have been very unfortunate to have this neighbor. This is why anything connected to a nuclear threat should be taken very seriously, as a real threat, and prepare accordingly,” he said.

    The language coming out of Moscow is worrying.

    Earlier this month, Medvedev, who now serves as deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, warned that Kyiv’s aim to recapture all of its lost territory “is a threat to the existence of our state and of a dismemberment of today’s Russia,” something he said was a “direct reason” to implement Russia’s nuclear deterrent.

    The Russian military is on the back foot in Ukraine and setting off a nuclear weapon could be seen as a desperate measure by the Kremlin to force a halt in the war.

    Kyiv’s reaction to Medvedev was swift.

    An Ukrainian Emergency Ministry rescuer attends an exercise in the city of Zaporizhzhia on August 17, 2022, in case of a possible nuclear incident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant | Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

    Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, branded his nuclear threats “an act of suicide,” saying: “Russia will finally turn into enemy No. 1 for the whole world.”

    Even Russia’s ally China is warning about the danger of using nuclear weapons. Last week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said: “Nuclear weapons cannot be used, a nuclear war cannot be waged.”

    U.S. President Joe Biden told Putin that it would be an “incredibly serious mistake” to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

    Brace brace

    Those international warnings aren’t stopping Ukrainians from prepping for the worst.

    The authorities in the Kyiv region have hundreds of shelters that could be used in case of nuclear attack. 

    “The past eight months have taught us that anything can happen. As an official, I am preparing for the worst-case scenario, but I hope that everything will be fine,” Oleksii Kuleba, head of the capital region’s military administration, told local media. 

    Kuleba said the shelters are below ground, have ventilation, two entrances, and by November 15 should be equipped with radio sets — which Ukrainian authorities believe might be the only means of communications after a nuclear attack.

    Ukraine’s government bodies have also recently published detailed instructions — informed by the country’s experience with the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster — on what to do in case of a nuclear strike.

    Secretary of the National security and defence council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

    “The use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine is considered unlikely, and the main purpose of these threats is to scare Ukrainians and the world and force us to make concessions, and our partners to weaken their support for Ukraine,” say the instructions, which then add: “At the same time, Ukrainians must have an action plan in case of any emergency situations: the use of nuclear weapons, a ‘dirty bomb’ or in the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant.”

    The instructions detail everything from not looking at the blast — “when you notice a flash in the sky (or its reflection), in no case look in that direction” — to covering your ears to prevent damage from a shock wave and removing clothing that has been exposed to radiation. “Run for cover as soon as you can get back on your feet and when the blast wave from the use of nuclear weapons has passed,” they say.

    In early October, the capital city’s administration said the city has enough potassium iodide pills — medicine to help prevent the absorption of radioactive iodine by the thyroid gland — to distribute to medical facilities and family doctors “in case of a radiation threat or a radiation emergency.”

    “If evacuation is necessary, potassium iodide will be distributed at evacuation points to members of the population who were exposed to the radiation zone, in accordance with the recommendations of medical professionals,” the administration added.

    Meanwhile, many Kyiv residents are taking their own preventive measures.

    Kristina Riabchyna, a sustainable stylist living in Kyiv and originally from Donetsk, has bought iodine tablets from a local pharmacy. 

    “I really want to believe that there won’t be a nuclear attack. But unfortunately, we have this insufferable neighbor, so we have no choice but to believe that this absurd thing might actually be possible,” she said.

    “Buying potassium iodide was probably a way of coping with the fear,” Riabchyna added. “What I mean is, I have done what I can at this stage, for my safety and for my loved ones, I haven’t ignored the danger and this means I can carry on living my life. But it goes without saying that I understand that this isn’t a countermeasure that will save us if this threat becomes reality.”

    Mykhailo, 49, and his mother in a school’s bomb shelter where they have stayed for nearly two months on June 4, 2022 in Velyka Novosilka, Ukraine | Anastasia Vlasova/Getty Images

    Foreigners in Kyiv are taking similar measures. 

    In recent weeks, staff working for an EU-funded project — they asked that the project not be identified — received thorough instructions on what to do in case of a nuclear attack or the use of a dirty bomb — a conventional bomb laced with radioactive material.

    “Nuclear explosions can cause significant damage and casualties from blast, heat, and radiation but there are steps you can take to try to mitigate against the impact,” the instructions said, recommending that, “If warned of an imminent attack, immediately get inside the nearest building, ideally under ground, and move away from windows.”

    The instructions go on to explain how to wash off radioactive fallout, how an electromagnetic pulse can damage electronic equipment and listen for advice on possible evacuation.

    If the attack is a tactical nuclear strike on the frontlines far from Kyiv, then, “The only plan of action for our Kyiv-based staff in such a case is to jump into cars and to be on the border [with Poland] within a couple of hours,” said an EU national with the program, speaking on condition of not being identified.

    Ukrainian troops on the front lines have been given potassium iodine tablets and also received training on what to do in the event of a nuclear attack — although spokespeople from the defense ministry and the military would not specify what those instructions were.

    For Prytula, the charity boss, the danger of a nuclear attack won’t end soon.

    “The threat of a nuclear weapon being used against Ukraine, or indeed any other country in the world, will be real as long as the Russian Federation exists,” he said. 

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    Sergei Kuznetsov

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  • Call for probe into Truss phone hack claims

    Call for probe into Truss phone hack claims

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    Claims that former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss’ mobile phone was hacked by foreign agents while she was serving as foreign secretary must be “urgently investigated,” the opposition Labour Party said.

    Private messages exchanged between Truss’ personal phone and foreign officials — including detailed discussions about arms shipments to Ukraine — are thought to have been intercepted by foreign agents, the Mail on Sunday reported, citing security sources.

    The newspaper claimed that the hack was uncovered during this summer’s Conservative leadership campaign, but that details were suppressed by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Cabinet Secretary Simon Case, the U.K.’s most senior civil servant. Russia was suspected to be behind the hack, the report said.

    Labour’s shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, said the allegations were “extremely serious.”

    “There are immensely important national security issues raised by an attack like this by a hostile state,” Cooper said in a statement.

    “There are also serious security questions around why and how this information has been leaked or released right now which must also be urgently investigated,” she said. “It is essential that all of these security issues are investigated and addressed at the very highest level.”

    Speaking to Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday program, U.K. Housing Secretary Michael Gove did not deny the hack took place but insisted “very robust protocols” were in place to ensure the security of governmental communications.

    “I don’t know the full details of what security breach, if any, took place,” Gove said. “I’m sure that the right protocols were followed. I’m sure that more information, as appropriate, will be released.”

    Citing allies of Truss, the Mail on Sunday reported that the former foreign secretary had been worried that revelations about the hack would compromise her bid to become prime minister, with one claiming she “had trouble sleeping” until it was confirmed that news of the alleged security breach would not be disclosed by the government.

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  • UK slams Russian claim British Navy had part in Nord Stream blasts

    UK slams Russian claim British Navy had part in Nord Stream blasts

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    The British Navy stands accused by the Russian government, without evidence, of blowing up the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, a claim the U.K. rejected as “false.”

    “According to available information, representatives … of the British Navy took part in the planning, provision and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year — blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines,” the Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday, according to media reports.

    The accusation did not include any further information or evidence to support claims of state sabotage. The Russian government also said that U.K. operatives helped plan a drone attack on its fleet at the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea on Saturday.

    The U.K. Defense Ministry quickly denied Moscow’s claim.

    “To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale,” the British ministry said in a tweet. “This invented story says more about arguments going on inside the Russian government than it does about the West.”

    Russia had already blamed the West in general terms for undersea explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipes last month. Those blasts have likely rendered the energy infrastructure unusable, according to the German government.

    An investigation by Danish and Swedish authorities is ongoing into the explosions, which took place inside the two countries’ exclusive economic zones close to the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm.

    Russia had already stopped gas transit through the pipeline sparking concerns earlier this year that it would use gas supply to blackmail Europe as its brutal war on Ukraine continues.

    While the first phase of Nord Stream had been operating for nearly 11 years, the second phase of the project — dubbed Nord Stream 2 — had not yet been brought into commercial operation.

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    Joshua Posaner

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  • Planning for the chaotic post-Putin world

    Planning for the chaotic post-Putin world

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    Vladimir Putin in power has brutalized millions as he careens into tyranny. 

    Yet Vladimir Putin out of power will bring its own brand of chaos: a Shakespearean knife-fight for power; unleashed regional leaders; a nuclear arsenal up for grabs.

    For now, few want to publicly talk about that post-Putin world, wary of the perception of meddling in domestic politics. But privately, western countries and analysts are plotting the scenarios that could unfold when Putin inevitably departs — and how Ukraine’s allies should react.

    “I will be careful speculating too much about the domestic political situation in Russia,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week when asked how the alliance was preparing for the possibility of the Russian leader leaving office. 

    “Regardless of what different analyses may indicate, I think what we need to do at NATO is to be prepared for all eventualities and when it comes to Ukraine, be prepared to continue to support them,” he said. 

    One consensus: It won’t be a clean transition, posing myriad dilemmas that could strain Western allies. How much can — and should — they influence the succession process? What should they do if a Russian republic breaks away? What relationship should they pursue with Putin’s successor?

    “We should put aside any illusions that what happens next immediately is democracy,” said Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia. 

    “What I think happens next,” he added, “is probably a time of troubles.” 

    An explosive succession fight 

    For now, Putin is in a safe position. He still controls the state apparatus, and the military is executing his murderous orders in Ukraine. 

    But the Russian leader’s flailing invasion of Ukraine has diminished his position at home and deepened uncertainties over who would take over, and how. 

    “To manage a stable succession when the time comes — which will in Putin’s mind be a time of his choosing — then you need a high degree of elite consensus,” said Bristow, who served as the United Kingdom’s envoy in Moscow from 2016 until 2020. 

    “What they’ve done now is break that consensus,” he said, noting there is now more vying for power within the Kremlin. 

    That fighting could turn bloody once the Kremlin’s top job finally opens up. 

    “This could get very Shakespearean, think King Lear, or [the] Roman Empire, like I, Claudius, or Games of Thrones, very quickly,” said William Alberque, a former director of NATO’s arms control center. 

    Alexander Vershbow, a former senior U.S. and NATO official, said the most likely scenario was still a “smooth transition” within Putin’s current inner circle — but he conceded that toppling tyrants can beget turmoil. “There could be internal instability,” he said, “and things become very unpredictable in authoritarian systems, in personalistic dictatorships.”

    Bristow, the former British ambassador, warned Western powers to stay out of such succession fights: “I think we have to recognize the limits of our ability to influence these outcomes.”

    Although, the ex-envoy conceded, “we certainly have an interest in the outcome.”

    Nukes = power

    Russia is sitting on the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, featuring thousands of warheads that can each inflict massive destruction, death and trauma on a population.

    The arsenal has long been a source of Russian strength on the world stage and a dominant part of its global image — for years, the possibility of a Kremlin nuclear strike dominated the public imagination in the U.S. and elsewhere. 

    In a period of leadership uncertainty, that arsenal could become a coveted symbol of power. That would put focus on the Russian military’s nuclear protector, the 12th Main Directorate, or GUMO. 

    “There’s a real possibility,” said Alberque, “that there would be deadly competition — competition to include people trying to rally different parts of the military — particularly the 12th GUMO that controls Russia’s nuclear arsenal.”

    Rogue regions

    Put simply, Russia is the largest country in the world, stretching across 11 time zones and climbing from the Caucasus to the Arctic. 

    While Putin may seem to hold a despotic grip on that entire expanse, there are a number of Russian republics with more tenuous connections to Moscow — and some with ambitious political figures. A power vacuum in a faraway capital could present an opening for local leaders to seize more control.

    While most analysts believe the Russian Federation would largely hold together through a battle for Kremlin control, they acknowledge the Russian government has long feared fragmentation. 

    In the event of such factional fighting, all eyes will be on Ramzan Kadyrov, the brutal head of the Chechen Republic. 

    “Does he throw his weight behind a competing faction? Or does he say, ‘I’m good with a decade of massive Russian subsidies — now let’s break off, and I can probably rule Chechnya and Dagestan; I can have my own empire here’?” said Alberque, now a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

    Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine could also come back to haunt the Kremlin.

    Vershbow, a former American ambassador to Russia, said there is a “low probability” of disintegration but noted that “ironically” Putin’s annexation of areas in eastern Ukraine “could be cited as a precedent by separatist leaders inside the Russian Federation, to say ‘borders are now up for grabs’.”

    A return of the reset debate

    Once a new leadership team is in place, that’s when the most bedeviling policy debates will begin for Western governments.  

    With Putin off the political stage, some officials — in particular in western Europe — may argue there is an opportunity to forge a fresh relationship with Moscow. 

    The U.S. infamously offered Russia a symbolic “reset” button at the start of Barack Obama’s presidency, only to see relations deteriorate further. And Germany for years preached the gospel of economic engagement with Russia, only to declare a historic “Zeitenwende,” or turning point, after Moscow’s invasion.

    With new leadership in the Kremlin, Germany may say “oh, Zeitenwende, never mind. Let’s push the U.S. to do another reset with the new Russian leader,” Alberque said. 

    Inevitably, NATO’s eastern wing would deplore such overtures. They’d argue “Russia never changes,” Alberque said, and lean on allies to not recede from the more assertive NATO stance adopted since the war began.

    Polish Minister for National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak made exactly that point to POLITICO.

    “Russia in a version with Tsar as a leader was the same like Russia in a version with a secretary-general of Communist party as a leader, and now it’s the same as Vladimir Putin as a leader,” he said. 

    “What is important from our perspective,” he added, “is to isolate Russia.”

    For now, there is no expected Putin successor. But officials say they are expecting a regime with a similar ideology — or one even more extreme. 

    Jānis Garisons, a Latvian state secretary, pointed out that Putin has already jailed critics — and possible future leaders — like Alexei Navalny, and only more hardliners on the outside are ready to step in. 

    Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen at the Bocharov Ruchei state residence | Pool photo by Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images

    “The only people who criticize him” and not in prison “are from the right wing,” Garisons said. 

    “We should not fall victim to a junta or some group of people coming forward saying that they want a reset,” said Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, “if it’s still the same.” 

    One major difference this time around is that Europe is now less economically dependent on Moscow, reducing a key incentive to re-engage.

    “We have gone a long way to stop buying from Russia,” said a senior EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “That would leave only the issues of nukes — but that will largely be with the Americans.” 

    Another signal Western leaders can look for is whether a Putin successor cooperates with international organizations seeking to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine — a possibility, of course, that seems remote.

    “Only a Russia determined to cooperate, would not represent a threat to Europe,” said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský.

    Yet for all the assumptions that a cooperative Russia is far off, several current and former officials cautioned that western governments must combine deterrence with a longer-term effort to engage Russian civil society. 

    The Western alliance, said Bristow, must consider “how we reach out to Russian society beyond the Kremlin, to the next generation of Russian politicians, thinkers, intellectuals, teachers, businesspeople, to kind of spell out an alternative vision to the one they’ve got.” 

    “My sense,” he added, “is that quite a lot of people in Russia would like to do that.” 

    Paul McLeary contributed reporting 

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    Lili Bayer

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  • Ukraine bats away Lukashenko’s border threats

    Ukraine bats away Lukashenko’s border threats

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    KYIV — Ukraine is giving short shrift to increased posturing from Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who this week pledged to conduct joint deployments with Russian forces and triggered fears that Minsk could be seeking to engineer a false flag operation on the border.

    Belarus’ chief strategic significance in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is that its territory — and importantly its airfields — are a springboard for attacks against northern Ukraine, most significantly Kyiv. Indeed, Putin used Belarus in exactly this way in the opening phases of the war.

    Crucially, however, Lukashenko has avoided sending his own forces into the conflict, sensing it would be a political disaster.

    Just two years ago, Lukashenko survived massive street protests against his rule by using brutal force, and the heavy casualties that the Belarusian army would probably sustain in the war against Ukraine could reignite popular anger against his rule. His direct involvement in the war would also mean more Western sanctions against a nation that has already been seriously hit by restrictions over the rigged 2020 presidential election.

    Law enforcement officers respond to a protest against President Lukashenko’s rule in 2020 | AFP via Getty Images

    Attention swung back to Lukashenko’s motives this week when he said on Monday that he had agreed with Putin to deploy a joint regional military group. He added that this order had been given two days before, apparently after the explosion of the Russia-Crimea bridge, which Moscow blamed on Ukraine. Lukashenko said that the Belarusian army would form the base of this group.

    Lukashenko also made fake claims about a potential Ukrainian attack against Belarus. He issued a warning to the Ukrainian leadership in the light of supposed information on “strikes on Belarus from the territory of Ukraine.” Think tankers and independent Belarusian journalists considered this to be Minsk laying the ground for a possible false-flag operation.

    “This information was immediately brought to my attention. My answer was simple: Tell the president of Ukraine and other insane people … that the Crimea bridge will be just the thin end of the wedge to them, if only they touch a single meter of our territory with their dirty hands.”

    He made his statement as Russia was hitting Ukraine with barrages of missiles on Monday, and Lukashenko’s reference to the Crimea bridge was most likely a hint at Moscow’s retaliation.

    Despite this escalation in rhetoric, Ukraine’s military is remaining cool-headed about potential risks from Belarus.

    “The units of the Defence Forces are monitoring the situation, there are no signs of the formation of offensive groups on the territory of Belarus,” the general staff said in a statement on Tuesday.

    The Ukrainian political leadership also played down Lukashenko’s provocative talk of the past days. 

    “Lukashenko continues to sell [Belarus’] sovereignty to Russia. The request to deploy Russian contingent in Belarus under false pretenses is the formalization of occupation,” Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, tweeted on Monday.

    Ukraine assesses risks and is ready for any threat from the Belarusian territory, he added. “The situation is under control, currently there is no sign of repeated invasion from Belarus.”

    Ukrainian forces have also added context about how much help they think Belarus is really offering Putin.

    Belarus is “involved in the repair” of Russian military equipment damaged during the war in the Ukrainian territory, the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said on Wednesday.

    Perhaps more significantly, the general staff added the first batch of 20 T-72 tanks was removed from storage in Belarus and sent to Russia’s Belgorod region, apparently with the aim of beefing up the army’s depleted reserves in eastern Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, the leader of the Belarusian opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who ran against Lukashenko in 2020’s fraudulent presidential election and now lives in exile in Lithuania, urged Kyiv on Tuesday to build a joint “alliance against Russian aggression.”

    So far, the relationship between the Ukrainian authorities and Tikhanovskaya’s team has been limited. Unlike many Western leaders, Zelenskyy, as well as other senior Ukrainian officials, has never officially met Tikhanovskaya, much less recognized her as the legitimate leader of Belarus.

    Kyiv has always tried to distance itself from expressing direct sympathy for Tikhanovskaya, one of Lukashenko’s main political rivals, seeking not to provoke the authoritarian leader, who might then refrain from holding back and join Russia’s ground war in Ukraine.

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    Sergei Kuznetsov

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  • Kyiv vows Russian troops will ‘simply be exterminated’ after Putin annexes Ukrainian territory

    Kyiv vows Russian troops will ‘simply be exterminated’ after Putin annexes Ukrainian territory

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    KYIV — Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions, announced by President Vladimir Putin on Friday, will not affect Kyiv’s resolve to free them with military force, said an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    “For our plans, [Russia’s annexation] doesn’t matter,” Mykhailo Podolyak told POLITICO, speaking before the signing ceremony in Moscow orchestrated by Putin. The Russian leader railed at the United States and the West, denounced the Ukrainian government, and warned: “We will protect our land using all our forces.”

    The annexation comes on a day when Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly encircled thousands of Russian troops near the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, and a couple of weeks after a successful counteroffensive that pushed Russian forces from the region near Kharkiv — the country’s second city.

    The nation “should liberate all its territories,” Podolyak said.

    Ukrainian troops have “likely nearly completed” the encirclement of Russian troops in Lyman in the Donetsk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

    “Virtually all approaches, logistics routes of the enemy, through which it delivered ammunition and manpower, are already under our fire control,” Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the Ukrainian eastern military grouping, told Ukrainian television.

    Moscow has not commented on the situation.

    Podolyak also shrugged off Putin’s announcement of a “partial” mobilization of reservists last week, with thousands called up and thousands more fleeing the country.

    “The mobilization shows that Russia has run out of a professional army,” Podolyak said, adding: “This army is being replaced by absolutely untrained people. A living resource has been thrown onto the front lines, and it will simply be exterminated.”

    “This may sound paradoxical, but it’s actually to our advantage that Russia has announced this mobilization,” he said. “This shows the people of Russia that the country really is at war, that it’s not doing very well in this war, and that the Russians themselves will be the ones to pay the price.”

    The mobilization is prompting Kyiv to call for more weapons from its Western allies.

    “For example, 100 more 155mm-caliber missiles would solve the problem, if you will excuse me for putting it that way, of additional human resources being utilized by Russia on the field of battle,” Podolyak said. 

    Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed four Ukrainian territories after holding sham referendums | Kay Nietfeld/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

    On Wednesday, U.S. authorities announced a $1.1 billion arms package for Ukraine, including 18 additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

    “Russia now has one card left to play in this war: nuclear weapons. Against a non-nuclear nation. That’s absurd,” Podolyak said.

    The worry is how Putin will react to Ukraine’s efforts to liberate the territories seized by Russia, and if the Kremlin will see that as an attack on Russia itself. However, Ukrainian attacks on Crimea and even strikes into Russia proper over the course of the seven-month war have not led to such a retaliation.

    Last week, Putin warned: “We doubtlessly will use all weapons resources at our disposal … This is not a bluff.”

    U.S. President Biden has warned Putin of the consequences of using nuclear or chemical weapons. Podolyak wants those warnings to be “clearly communicated” to Moscow and for “very tough retaliation measures aimed at the destruction of Russia’s defense infrastructure” to follow.

    “For instance, Russia’s naval forces in the Black Sea could be completely destroyed,” he said. “This would be a proportionate response to Russia’s attempt to launch a tactical nuclear strike against the combat positions of the Ukrainian army.”

    Meanwhile, Ukraine “will keep doing its job” to liberate its territory, he said.

    “We have no other options when it comes to ending the war properly. We can’t leave some enclave [under Russian occupation] or create a new dividing line,” he said, referring to the frozen conflict that followed Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Donbas war in 2014-2015.

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    Sergei Kuznetsov

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