This year will be one of “recovery and preparation on both sides, like 1916 and 1941-42 in the last world wars,” said Marc Thys, who retired as Belgium’s deputy defense chief last year with the rank of lieutenant general.
Looking ahead
To assess prospects for the year ahead, POLITICO asked analysts, serving officers and military experts to give their view on the course of the war.
Nobody could provide a precise roadmap for 2024, but all agreed that three fundamentals will determine the trajectory of the coming months. First, this spring is about managing expectations as Ukraine won’t have the gear or the personnel to launch a significant counteroffensive; second, Russia, with the help of its allies, has secured artillery superiority and, together with relentless ground attacks, is pounding Ukrainian positions; and third, without Western air defense and long-range missiles as well as artillery shells, Kyiv will struggle to mount a credible, sustained defense.
“The year will be difficult, no one can predict from which direction Russia will go or whether we will advance this year,” said Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military analyst and sergeant with the Naval Forces Marine Corps Reserve.
It’s clear, however, that Ukraine is on the back foot.
After many weeks of bloody fighting, Russia finally took the fortress city of Avdiivka this month. Without pausing for a breather, its military proceeded to launch attacks on other key Ukrainian strongpoints and logistical hubs: Robotyne in the region of Zaporizhzia, Kupiansk in Kharkiv, and Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region.
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Joshua Posaner, Veronika Melkozerova, Stuart Lau, Paul McLeary and Henry Donovan
Earlier on Monday, Russian investigators informed her and Navalny’s lawyers that his body would be withheld an additional 14 days so it could be examined. Navalny spokesperson Kira Yarmysh suggested the handover could be delayed until after the upcoming presidential election, scheduled for March 15-17.
Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny’s widow, accused Putin of orchestrating her husband’s death. In a video address published on Monday she vowed to continue her husband’s fight against the Russian president.
“These are rude accusations of the head of the Russian state,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday. “I don’t care how the press secretary of the killer interprets my words,” Yulia Navalnaya responded on X (formerly Twitter).
Her account on the social media channel was later inaccessible for about an hour on Tuesday afternoon, but X restored it.
Demands for the release of Navalny’s body continue to grow, with over 70,000 Russians sending emails to the Russian Investigative Committee (SKR), calling on it to release the politician’s body to his family.
The SKR, similar to America’s FBI, is a federal agency that handles high-profile cases including corruption, homicide and terrorism, as well as cases involving the political opposition.
The truth is, Europe only has itself to blame for the morass. Trump has been harping on about NATO’s laggards for years, but he hardly invented the genre. American presidents going back to Dwight D. Eisenhower have complained about European allies freeloading on American defense.
What Europeans don’t like to hear is that Trump has a point: They have been freeloading. What’s more, it was always unrealistic to expect the U.S. to pick pick up the tab for European security ad infinitum.
After Trump lost to Biden in 2020, its seemed like everything had gone back to normal, however. Biden, a lifelong transatlanticist, sought to repair the damage Trump did to NATO by letting the Europeans slide back into their comfort zone.
Even though overall defense spending has increased in recent years in Europe — as it should have, considering Russia’s war on Ukraine — it’s still nowhere near enough. Only 11 of NATO’s 31 members are expected to meet the spending target in 2023, for example, according to NATO’s own data. Germany, the main target of Trump’s ire, has yet to achieve the 2 percent mark. It’s likely to this year, however, if only because its economy is contracting.
The truth is, Europe was lulled back into a false sense of security by Biden’s warm embrace. Instead of going on a war footing by forcing industry to ramp up armament production and reinstating conscription in countries like Germany where it was phased out, Europe nestled itself in Americas skirts.
But Carlson’s monologue, in which he lambasted Western media and claimed it wasn’t making an effort to hear Putin’s side of the story, has sparked backlash from American and Russian journalists.
“Many journalists have interviewed Putin, who also makes frequent, widely covered speeches,” wrote Anne Applebaum, an American journalist and historian, on X (formerly Twitter). “Carlson’s interview is different because he is not a journalist, he’s a propagandist, with a history of helping autocrats conceal corruption.”
Carlson, who was ousted by Fox last year, said the interview would be published “unedited” and “not behind a paywall” on his personal website. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday confirmed that the interview had already taken place, but did not share when it would air.
While Western media outlets have done “scores of interviews” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Carlson said, “not a single Western journalist has bothered to interview the president of the other country involved in this conflict, Vladimir Putin.”
“Most Americans have no idea why Putin invaded Ukraine or what his goals are now,” he said. “They’ve never heard his voice. That’s wrong.”
While it’s true that Carlson will be the first American to interview Putin since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago, journalists from major outlets in the United States and Europe were quick to point out that this is not for lack of trying.
News of Carlson’s visit first broke at the weekend after the Mash Telegram channel, rumored to have links to Russian law enforcement, reported he’d been spotted in Moscow at the Bolshoi Theater after having flown in several days earlier.
In a video published by the Russian outlet Izvestia a day later, Carlson said he had come to Russia to “talk to people, look around, and see how it’s doing … and it’s doing very well.”
Responding to a question as to whether he was there to interview Putin, Carlson responded: “We’ll see.”
Elon Musk, the owner of X (formerly Twitter), the platform on which the video will be published, has promised not to suppress or block the interview once it’s posted, Carlson said. He then aimed another broadside at the West.
“Western governments, by contrast, will certainly do their best to censor this video and other less principled platforms because that’s what they do,” Carlson said.
The last time Putin sat down with an American journalist was in June 2021 with NBC’s Keir Simmons. In October 2021 Putin briefly spoke to CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at the Russian Energy Week event in Moscow. Before that the Russian president also talked to U.S. TV journalist Megyn Kelly, then with NBC, before his last election win in 2018.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will wage war elsewhere if Russia defeats Ukraine.
“If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is real risk that his aggression will not end there,” Stoltenberg told reporters during a meeting with Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico. “Our support is not charity. It is an investment in our security.”
Fico, who won September’s election, is skeptical of aiding Ukraine and has ended military deliveries to Kyiv.
But Stoltenberg wants the alliance to hold firm against Russia.
“The only way to reach a just and lasting solution is to convince President Putin that they will not win on the battlefield.And the only way to ensure that President Putin realizes that he is not winning on the battlefield is to continue to support Ukraine,” the NATO chief said.
His comments came on the same day the Russian leader made clear he has no intention of backing down in his war against Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow has “no interest” in attacking a NATO member and called U.S. President Joe Biden’s warning that Russia would do so if it wins the war in Ukraine “complete nonsense.”
Biden earlier this month warned that “if Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” and will attack NATO countries resulting in “American troops fighting Russian troops.”
Putin said Biden’s words were just an attempt to support “mistaken policy” toward Russia and the war in Ukraine.
“It is complete nonsense — and I think President Biden understands that,” Putin said during an interview published Sunday by Rossiya state television.
“Russia has no reason, no interest — no geopolitical interest, neither economic, political nor military — to fight with NATO countries,” Putin said.
In the interview, Putin also warned of “problems” with Finland after the EU country joined NATO.
“Did we have any disputes with them? All disputes, including territorial ones in the mid-20th century, have long been solved,” Putin said. But “now there will be, because now we are going to create the Leningrad military district and concentrate certain military units there,” he said.
In mid-November, Finland began closing its 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, accusing Moscow of pushing asylum seekers, mostly from Africa and the Middle East, toward the Nordic country.
The Kremlin’s spy chief Sergei Naryshkin warned the U.S. that Ukraine will turn into its “second Vietnam,” amid disagreement in Congress over funding for Kyiv.
“Ukraine will turn into a ‘black hole’ absorbing more and more resources and people,” Russian foreign intelligence chief Naryshkin said Thursday in a written statement published by his agency’s house journal, the Intelligence Operative.
“Ultimately, the U.S. risks creating a ‘second Vietnam’ for itself, and every new American administration will have to deal with it,” he added.
The U.S. was engaged in the Vietnam War — fought between South Vietnam and the U.S. on one side and communist North Vietnam backed by the Soviet Union and China on the other — for nearly two decades. The conflict claimed more than a million lives, including tens of thousands from the U.S., and ended with a comprehensive victory for the North Vietnamese forces.
According to a recent poll, 59 percent of Americans still support sending military aid to Ukraine.
Germany’s sports minister, Nancy Faeser, has called on the International Olympic Committee to examine “very carefully” the backgrounds of Russian and Belarusian athletes competing in next year’s Olympic Games in Paris.
Faeser’s comments came a day after the IOC, headed by Germany’s Thomas Bach, announced that Russians and Belarusians would be able to compete in Paris as neutrals outside of team events, provided they did not actively support the war against Ukraine.
But Faeser, who is also Germany’s interior minister, said that it was important the IOC examine their backgrounds and exclude any athletes found to support President Vladimir Putin’s war, or have any connection to the Russian government or military.
“The warmonger Putin must under no circumstances use the Olympic Games in Paris for his propaganda,” said Faeser, in a statement sent to POLITICO.
In March, the IOC recommended that international sports could reinstate Russian and Belarusian athletes as individuals, under a neutral banner, as long as they had not supported the war and that they were not under contract with either the army or national security agencies.
According to the IOC, 11 athletes — eight Russians and three Belarusians — have so far qualified for Paris 2024.
Faeser said Russian teams being excluded and flags and symbols banned was “the absolute minimum we could expect from the International Olympic Committee.”
“It would be completely unacceptable for Ukrainian athletes to have to compete against Russians who support the Russian war of aggression against their country,” she added. “Ukraine — and Ukrainian sport — must continue to enjoy the full support and solidarity of world sport.”
Top officials from the United States and the EU met with their Russian counterparts for undisclosed emergency talks in Turkey designed to resolve the standoff over Nagorno-Karabakh, just days before Azerbaijan launched a military offensive last month to seize the breakaway territory from ethnic Armenian control.
The off-diary meeting marks a rare — if ultimately unsuccessful — contact between Moscow and the West on a major security concern, after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 upended regular diplomacy.
A senior diplomat with knowledge of the discussions told POLITICO the meeting took place on September 17 in Istanbul as part of efforts to pressure Azerbaijan to end its nine-month blockade of the enclave and allow in humanitarian aid convoys from Armenia. According to the envoy, the meeting focused on “how to get the bloody trucks moving” and ensure supplies of food and fuel could reach its estimated 100,000 residents.
The U.S. was represented by Louis Bono, Washington’s senior adviser for Caucasus negotiations, while the EU dispatched Toivo Klaar, its representative for the region. Russia, meanwhile, sent Igor Khovaev, who serves as Putin’s special envoy on relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Such high-level diplomatic interaction is rare. In March, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov came face to face on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in India — but Moscow insisted the exchange happened “on the move” and no negotiations were held.
In a statement provided to POLITICO, an EU official said “we believe it is important to maintain channels of communications with relevant interlocutors to avoid misunderstandings.” The official also observed Klaar had sought to keep lines open on numerous fronts over the “past years,” including in talks with Khovaev and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin.
A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department declined to comment on the meeting, saying only that “we do not comment on private diplomatic discussions.”
However, a U.S. official familiar with the matter who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters explained the discussions came out of an understanding that the Kremlin still holds sway in the region. “We need to be able to work with the Russians on this because they do have influence over the parties, especially as we’re at a precarious moment right now,” the American official said.
Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, sending tanks and troops into the region under the cover of heavy artillery bombardment. Karabakh Armenian leaders were forced to surrender following 24 hours of fierce fighting that killed hundreds on both sides. Since then, the Armenian government says more than 100,000 people have fled their homes and crossed the border, fearing for their lives.
Azerbaijan insists it has the right to take action against “illegal armed formations” on its internationally recognized territory, and has pledged to “reintegrate” those who have stayed behind. European Council President Charles Michel described the military operation as “devastating,” while Blinken has joined calls for Azerbaijan “to refrain from further hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and provide unhindered humanitarian access.”
Rumors of Admiral Viktor Sokolov’s death may have been greatly exaggerated.
Ukraine on Monday claimed to have killed Sokolov — the commander of Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet — in an attack on the port of Sevastopol last week. But on Tuesday, Sokolov appeared, apparently alive and well, in video footage of a Kremlin defense meeting, published by Russian state-owned newswire RIA Novosti.
In an initial statement after last Friday’s attack, the Russian defense ministry said it had shot down five incoming missiles and only one serviceman was killed, though the fleet’s headquarters were damaged.
But reports about Sokolov’s death circulated online and Ukraine jumped Monday at the chance to announce his killing and say that it had inflicted huge casualties on the Russians in occupied Crimea. POLITICO could not independently verify the Ukrainian claims.
WARSAW — Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is in the fight of its political life ahead of next month’s general election — and in its scramble for votes it’s taking aim at the country’s alliance with Ukraine.
The latest blow came from Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who on Wednesday said that Poland has halted shipments of its own armaments to Ukraine.
“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine, because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Morawiecki told Poland’s Polsat television.
It’s true that Poland has sent most of its Soviet-era tanks, fighters and other weapons to Ukraine and doesn’t have much left in its stocks. Warsaw will also continue allowing arms shipments from other allies to pass through its territory.
“Poland still functions as a hub for international aid,” said government spokesperson Piotr Müller, adding that the country is fulfilling its existing military supply contracts with Ukraine.
But Morawiecki’s comments come at a time when relations between Warsaw and Kyiv are the frostiest since Russia’s invasion a year and a half ago, and add to the impression that the nationalist party is undermining its alliance with Ukraine for electoral gain.
“Morawiecki wasn’t saying anything that wasn’t obvious … but to say such a thing at such a time escalates the conflict,” said Marcin Zaborowski, a director with the Globsec think tank.
The catalyst is grain.
Poland, Hungary and Slovakia have closed their markets to Ukrainian grain imports, in violation of the rules of the European Union’s single market, arguing they need to protect their farmers from price drops.
Ukraine has retaliated by filing a lawsuit against them at the World Trade Organization. It has also threatened to block some Polish agricultural exports to Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took a swipe at those countries at the United Nations this week, saying: “Alarmingly, some in Europe play out solidarity in a political theater — turning grain into a thriller … they’re helping set the stage for a Moscow actor.”
Polish President Andrzej Duda scrapped a meeting with Zelenskyy in New York due to a scheduling conflict, and the Ukrainian ambassador to Warsaw was summoned to the foreign ministry to explain. Morawiecki characterized relations with Kyiv as “difficult.”
Political calculation
In Poland, the core reason for the move is PiS’s need to shore up its support among rural voters and also to peel away supporters from the far-right Confederation party, many of whose backers are skeptical about helping Ukraine.
The Polish government sent tanks and jet fighters to Ukraine at a time when many other countries were balking at sending such equipment to Kyiv | Omar Marques/Getty Images
“Ukrainians ruthlessly took advantage of the Polish government being a sucker, emphasized their sympathy, which of course was not there, took the cash, and now they will declare a trade war on us,” Confederation leader Sławomir Mentzen told the Polish press.
Jacek Kucharczyk, head of the Institute for Public Affairs, a Warsaw-based think tank, characterized the shift in tone by the ruling party as “a desperate electoral ploy.”
In POLITICO’s poll of polls, PiS has the support of 38 percent of voters while Civic Coalition, the leading opposition party, is at 29 percent. If that holds, Law and Justice won’t have enough seats in parliament to rule on its own and so will have to try to form a coalition; Confederation is the likeliest target, although the party says it won’t join forces with PiS.
But the trends look worrying for PiS.
The government has been hit with a growing visas-for-bribes scandal that now has the European Commission asking for explanations. A new poll by United Surveys shows that if the main opposition parties join together, they would be able to cobble together a majority government after the October 15 election.
Shifting narrative
The U-turn on Ukraine may help shore up some of PiS’s electoral base. But it could cause other problems.
It undermines the government’s main foreign policy win. After years of bitter conflicts with the European Union and other key allies over rule of law, media freedom and backsliding on democratic standards, Poland’s strong support for Ukraine changed the narrative in Brussels and in Washington.
Millions of ordinary Poles helped Ukrainian refugees fleeing across the border in the immediate aftermath of the Russian attack. The Polish government sent tanks and jet fighters to Ukraine at a time when many other countries were balking at sending such equipment to Kyiv, fearing Russian retaliation. Warsaw also took delight in pointing out the shortcomings of European countries like Germany and France.
Zelenskyy even called Poland a “sister.”
In an address to the Polish nation made last year in Polish, he said: “I will remember how you welcomed us, how you help us. Poles are our allies, your country is our sister. Your friendship forever. Our friendship forever. Our love forever. Together we will be victors.”
Opinion polls show there is still strong support for helping Ukraine, with about three-quarters of Poles wanting to accept refugees.
Millions of ordinary Poles helped Ukrainian refugees fleeing across the border in the immediate aftermath of the Russian attack | Omar Marques/Getty Images
“The risk is that PiS voters broadly support the pro-Ukraine policy, and such a rapid policy change could be difficult to explain,” said Kucharczyk.
PiS has toyed with skepticism about Ukraine in the past — raising the issue of wartime massacres of Poles by Ukrainian nationalist guerrillas — but the overarching message was that Poland is Ukraine’s firmest friend.
The narrative shift is being welcomed in Moscow.
In New York, Duda compared Ukraine to a desperate, drowning person.
“A drowning person is extremely dangerous, he can pull you down to the depths … simply drown the rescuer,” Duda said.
That got a thumbs-up from the Kremlin.
“Never before did I agree with Duda as strongly as I did after this statement. Everything he said is correct,” said Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
The Polish opposition is also going on the attack.
Radosław Sikorski, a former Polish foreign minister and now a member of the European Parliament for the Civic Coalition, called Morawiecki’s comments “criminally stupid.”
“Even if we don’t have much more to give then why is he saying this in public! Does he really want [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to calculate that one or two more pushes and Ukraine will fall?” he tweeted.
Kyiv is now trying to downplay any rift with Warsaw.
Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s parliament committee on foreign relations, said he felt Morawiecki’s weapons comments weren’t linked to the growing trade fight.
“Like every politician, I know that during an election campaign, rhetoric can be quite emotional,” he said.
Bartosz Brzeziński and Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting.
Eva Hartog, POLITICO Europe’s reporter in Moscow, has been expelled from Russia after 10 years reporting in the country.
Russia’s foreign ministry told Hartog last Monday that her visa would not be extended and gave her six days to leave the country. Hartog was told the decision had been made by the “relevant authorities,” but was given no additional information about how the ruling was made.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began last year, foreign journalists have been required to reapply for their visa and media accreditation every three months, as opposed to once a year before the war started.
Anna-Lena Laurén, the Russian correspondent for Swedish outlet Dagens Nyheter and for Finnish newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet, was also expelled from Russia this week, reported DN. After 16 years in the country, Laurén’s accreditation was not renewed, a move that she said she “knew would happen.” Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich was locked up on espionage charges in March.
Since President Vladimir Putin launched all-out war against Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian authorities have progressively cleared the field of any remaining critics at home. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been imprisoned for decades in a maximum-security prison on extremism charges, while practically all independent Russian journalists have fled the country because of new censorship laws which criminalize critical coverage of the war.
In a statement, Jamil Anderlini, POLITICO Europe’s editor-in-chief, said: “Eva Hartog has safely departed Moscow after the renewal of her visa and transfer of her press accreditation to POLITICO were rejected by the Russian authorities. We are extremely disappointed by these actions, but they do not diminish POLITICO’s unwavering commitment to covering the Russian government and its war in Ukraine. We hope that Eva and POLITICO will return to Moscow in the near future to continue our factual and nonpartisan coverage of Russian politics.”
A Dutch citizen with Russian roots, Hartog, 35, moved to Moscow in 2013. She first worked as web editor at the Moscow Times, later taking on the role of editor-in-chief. Since 2019, she has been writing for the Dutch news magazine De Groene Amsterdammer and more recently as POLITICO Europe’s Russia correspondent.
“Thankfully, Eva is safe and was able to leave Russia — however Evan Gershkovich of the Wall Street Journal remains unjustly imprisoned for committing fair and accurate journalism and should be released immediately,” Anderlini added.
The Kremlin has selectively targeted foreign journalists and international media in recent years. In 2021, the BBC’s Russia correspondent Sarah Rainsford was pushed out after she was declared a threat to national security. At the time, Russia said the move was in retaliation for the U.K.’s refusal to grant visas to Russian journalists.
Just months later, Russia then expelled Tom Vennink, Russia correspondent for Dutch newspaper de Volkskrant, over “administrative violations.” Vennink was given three days to leave the country and was barred from entering Russia until January 2025.
Dozens of foreign journalists and organizations exited Russia in the days and weeks after Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but many of them eventually returned.
Then, in March this year, Russia arrested Gershkovich on espionage charges — denied by Gershkovich and his employer — making him the first foreign journalist to be arrested on allegations of spying since the Cold War. Gershkovich, who faces up to 20 years in jail, remains detained in Russia. His arrest sent shockwaves through the community of American and foreign journalists still in Russia, with many considering their future in the country.
Until this week, it remained the only known example of Russia’s crackdown on foreign reporters since its assault on Kyiv began.
In June Moscow indicated it would respond directly in kind to the latest round of EU sanctions, which targeted “individuals responsible for disinformation,” blacklisting several war bloggers and a war correspondent for the state-owned Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK).
During a press conference in February this year, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced the end of a “regime of maximum favorable treatment” toward foreign journalists.
“Everything is over now. Foreign correspondents will live and apply for their documents in a new way,” she added.
The first Russian lunar mission in nearly half a century ended with a bang.
The Luna-25, which left earth on August 10, crash-landed on the moon nine days later after an incident involving the pre-landing maneuvers malfunctioned, Russian space agency Roscosmos said late Saturday on its Telegram channel.
According to Roscosmos, the last communication with the spacecraft was at 2:57 p.m. Moscow time (13:57 CEST) on Saturday. Efforts after that to get back in contact with the craft did not produce any results, the agency said.
A specially formed commission will now look at why the Luna craft malfunctioned, Roscosmos said.
Russia’s Luna-25 mission was sent to scope out the lunar south pole, where scientists believe there is a plentiful supply of water locked in ice in the perpetual shade of mountain ridges. Firming up water reserves is a critical requirement for supporting life on the moon with breathable oxygen, drinking water and even rocket fuel, which would then help space-faring nations further explore the cosmos from any lunar outpost in the future.
Other countries are also eyeing the moon’s southern region. The U.S. plans to send a mission to the south pole later this decade as part of its Artemis program supported by Canada and European countries.
More immediately, India’s Chandrayaan-3 mission is scheduled to land on the lunar surface on August 23 to explore the south pole. An earlier Indian mission crashed in 2019.
KYIV — Ukraine’s long-range Beaver drones seem to be making successful kamikaze strikes in the heart of Moscow, but Serhiy Prytula is coy about how much he knows.
“We are not sure whether we are involved in this,” he says with a charming but inscrutable smile, when asked about these mysterious new weapons.
Prytula rose to fame — just like President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — as an actor, TV star and comedian, but is now best known for his contribution to the war, running a foundation that acquires components, helps support domestic arms production and supplies front-line forces. Tracking down parts for drones has proved to be one of his fortes.
Whether or not Prytula played any role in finding parts for the Beaver, it has now joined the ranks of other homegrown creations such as the Shark, Leleka and Valkyrie.
From the outside, his foundation looks like any other nondescript five-story apartment block in the quiet side streets of Kyiv. Inside, it is a chaotic human hive of volunteers, preparing packages and dispatching deliveries to soldiers on the front. On August 9, the team packed 75 drones for military units. That’s barely a drop in the ocean, given the needs of Ukraine’s forces across a 1,000-kilometer front, but every extra eye in the sky can help save dozens of lives.
The crowd of young, energetic volunteers at Prytula’s headquarters epitomizes an important dimension of the war: Ukrainians are increasingly taking matters into their own hands when it comes to weapons supply. With the defense ministry and the traditional state arms sector widely criticized for inefficiency and tarnished by corruption scandals over past years, the country is now witnessing an explosion of private enterprise to deliver kit to the front lines and to ramp up domestic production in the most hazardous of conditions. With arms-makers being prime targets for Russian cruise missiles, factories are spreading their manufacturing over numerous secret locations.
This sense that Ukrainians need to take the initiative at home both by scouring the global arms bazaar for hi-tech gizmos and by making more of their own heavy armor and shells is only amplified by the looming threat of a return to the White House by Donald Trump, who argues that America should not be “sending very much” to Ukraine and that Kyiv should sue for peace with the invader. Other Republican candidates have only heightened Ukrainians’ fears that the next U.S. president could sell out their young democracy to the Kremlin.
In addition to the aerial drones, there have been other homegrown success stories — Ukrainian-made armored vehicles are on the front lines beside U.S. Bradleys and locally made maritime drones have hit Russian ships in the Black Sea.
Not that anyone reckons going it alone is an option. Ukraine cannot even begin to match the vast military expenditure of Russia — Kyiv is expected to spend €24 billion on defense over 2023, while Russia is probably splurging well over €80 billion — so foreign assistance will always prove vital to keeping Ukraine in the fight.
But that’s no reason to sit idly by. Almost an entire country has mobilized for national defense, and there are many ways in which entrepreneurial private suppliers are now proving nimbler than state behemoths and bureaucrats in getting soldiers what they need.
When it came to the key question — on every Ukrainian’s mind — of continued Western support, Prytula stressed the efforts that Ukrainians were making to defend themselves made it less likely that outside aid would diminish. “I am convinced that they will keep supplying us with weapons because the world sees the war efforts of Ukrainian society.”
Beaver blitz
The back story of the Beaver is a closely guarded secret.
Last year, Ukrainian blogger and volunteer Ihor Lachenkov announced he was aiming to collect 20 million hryvnia (about €500,000) to produce and buy five Beaver drones for military intelligence, and later posted pictures of himself hugging one. Since then drones that looked like Beavers have hammered Russian oil depots and other military targets deep inside Russian territory and even hit Moscow’s business district. Officially, Ukraine is saying nothing about where this kit is coming from, and men such as Lachenkov and Prytula provide a useful smokescreen.
The country is now witnessing an explosion of private enterprise to deliver kit to the front lines | Sergey Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
Prytula in late July also showed off grinning pictures of himself walking past three Beaver drones on a landing strip, quipping ironically: “We have no idea what can fly to Moscow.”
Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Prytula’s foundation has raised $135 million, which has been used to buy more than 7,000 drones, 1,200 vehicles, over 17,000 communication devices and much more.
When asked about his role in getting the Beaver drones, Prytula diplomatically said a volunteer’s job is to buy what the military needs and hand it over. “But it is not always necessary to talk about it. We honestly always say that we have nothing to do with it. When we see oil bases are exploding somewhere in Russia, or that there are some attacks on military facilities, we are glad that our army has learned to take out the enemy outside the country,” Prytula said.
Indeed, Prytula’s volunteers play a key middleman role in acquiring components more quickly than the state bureaucracy can.
China is a key part of the puzzle as the Ukrainian defense ministry cannot buy Chinese-made civilian drones directly. Shenzhen-based drone maker DJI no longer openly sells to Russia or to Ukraine, so the key trick is to acquire their wares quickly from third countries, or pick up parts and components internationally that can be assembled by Ukrainian technicians. There is a boom in small Ukrainian arms producers, with more than 100 companies active in the field.
“For the Russians, it was always easier to get [the Chinese products] in the never-ending race. So, when I hear Ukrainians managed to snatch up 10,000 components for … drones from Russians, I am happy,” Prytula said, sitting in his office, beside a giant wooden map of Ukraine.
This sense that Ukrainians need to take the initiative at home is only amplified by the looming threat of a return to the White House by Donald Trump, who argues that America should not be “sending very much” to Ukraine and that Kyiv should sue for peace with the invader | Brandon Bell/Getty Images
“The defense ministry also can’t buy [drones] that are not in serial production yet. But we can, and the producers can reinvest the money to increase the number, if soldiers’ feedback from the front was good,” Prytula continued. “So, by donating money people are not only helping the army, but also stimulating domestic military production.”
The game-changing role of drone producers has also made them a target. Over the weekend, Russia attacked a theater in the center of Chernihiv, a city north of Kyiv, where drone producers and volunteers had organized a closed meeting with the help of the local military administration. Most of them managed to escape to shelter but people walking around the theater on the central square did not, with seven killed and 129 injured.
Bringing it all back home
While almost everyone now wants to get involved in the defense business, that wasn’t always the case. Just as Russia was building up its military from 1991 to 2014, Ukraine neglected its own arms factories. In the wild years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, illegal networks smuggled out arms. While the country remained a heavyweight military producer, it focused on export earnings rather than tailoring weapons for Ukraine’s own forsaken troops.
“No one predicted any military conflicts either with Russia or other countries,” Maksym Polyvianyi, acting director of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries, told POLITICO. “In a way, Russia’s 2014 invasion boosted our defense industry. Dozens of defense companies appeared and started the modernization of Ukrainian armory and the army.”
Still, the old scourge of corruption held the country back, even after Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Under the presidency of Petro Poroshenko, the state arms industry was rocked by scandals in which money was siphoned off, even as the country faced open conflict against Russia in the east.
Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 forced another change, however, accelerating diversification from the state industrial complex. “As of 2022, Ukrainian armed forces buy up to 70 percent of defense products from private military companies,” Polyvianyi said.
Under the presidency of Petro Poroshenko, the state arms industry was rocked by scandals in which money was siphoned off, even as the country faced open conflict against Russia in the east | Chris McGrath/Getty Images
With the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s defense producers became primary targets for Russian missiles. Many were bombed. But others managed to relocate to western Ukraine and spread out production.
“You have to be creative to survive nowadays. Two months after the start of the invasion, we resumed our work,” Vladislav Belbas, director general of Ukrainian Armor, told POLITICO. Since 2018, Ukrainian Armor produced the Varta and Novator armored vehicles, as well as 60mm, 82mm, and 120 mm-caliber mortars for the army. “We recently restarted production even though we’ve lost an important components contractor. It is now located on the territory controlled by Russia.”
Secrecy is also crucial. “We do everything to protect our staff, hide information about our production whereabouts. We move and test equipment at night, when it is more difficult to track us. We try not to concentrate equipment in one place,” Belbas said.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s strategic industries minister, stressed output was rising dramatically but that it was inconceivable to match Russia without major foreign support. “In seven months of 2023, we made 10 times more artillery and mortar ammo than in the entire 2022. But we are still very far from what we need,” he told POLITICO. “Today we have a war of such a scale that the entire capacity of the free world is not enough to support our consumption. We definitely cannot do this without help.”
Ministry malaise
The defense ministry — the main supplier of weapons, food, uniforms and other necessities — is struggling to shake off a reputation for graft and inefficiency.
In a high-profile profiteering scandal earlier this year, it transpired the ministry had paid absurdly inflated prices for soldiers’ rations to a contractor. The ministry denies violations, but keeps hiding behind military secrecy.
Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s strategic industries minister, stressed output was rising dramatically but that it was inconceivable to match Russia without major foreign support | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images
Other more recent scandals and procurement hiccups have focused on the ministry’s failure to secure delivery of everything it paid for. In private, Ukrainian officials admit the defense ministry is not up to scratch in supplying the army, and some Ukrainian lawmakers openly criticize the minister, Oleksii Reznikov, over his record on procurement.
The Ukrainian government has found alternative ways to cover some of the needs of the Ukrainian army, with the digital transformation ministry engaging in drone supplies, using state donations platform UNITED 24, and liberalizing customs and production rules for drones in Ukraine.
“President Zelenskyy took domestic defense production under personal control,” Kamyshin said.
Prytula, the founder of the foundation, said it was hard to judge the defense ministry during war. “They are quite successful when it comes to accumulating help in the international arena, but have some troubles at home. I think the defense ministry is doing what it can in terms of its responsibility. But with such a war it is never enough,” he said.
But Polyvianyi noted that’s where volunteers were coming into their own as parallel supply lines, filling the gaps left by the ministry. “The task of the state today is to provide heavy equipment. Without help, the state cannot provide all the needs of each army unit. Charitable foundations work in close connection with the ministry of defense and other structures.”
That’s a partnership in which Prytula is one of the most important players. But he is among the first to admit that all of Ukraine’s Herculean efforts at home will amount to nothing without the support of the international coalition.
“So it is hard to imagine we can win if we’re left on our own. As in the war of two formerly Soviet armies, the one with more people and weapons will win. Only better technology can help change the situation,” Prytula said. “It will be very difficult for us to fight alone with such a huge monster. But the civilized world has two options: to help us restore our 1991 borders, or to throw away all claims of shared values and just watch us bleed.”
KYIV — Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death in a Russian jet crash has been greeted in Ukraine with dark humor and jubilation.
“I am thrilled that people who killed or were responsible for killing thousands of Ukrainians have died. And they will no longer kill any Ukrainian, nor will they escape punishment, which would be very likely if they survived,” Ukrainian media expert Otar Dovzhenko told POLITICO.
Many others reacted with memes and sarcastic comments, after the fiery plane crash which apparently killed Prigozhin and a number of his top Wagner lieutenants.
“Well, Prigozhin specifically asked to send him more weapons,” Ukrainian standup comedian Anton Tymoshenko joked in a Facebook post, connecting Prigozhin’s battlefield video demands for more weapons and one of the versions of what happened in the jet crash, that a Russian air defense missile shot it down.
Prigozhin’s death was also widely cheered as a great present for Ukraine’s Independence Day, celebrated every year on August 24.
“The show-stopping removal of Prigozhin and the Wagner command two months after the coup attempt is Putin’s signal to Russian elites ahead of the 2024 elections: ‘Fight! Disloyalty equals death,’” Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian president’s office head adviser, said in a statement.
Notorious reputation
Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries fought in Ukraine until May, when they finally occupied what was left of Bakhmut, a town in the Donetsk region that was razed to the ground during nine months of brutal fighting.
For months Prigozhin sent his fighters into deadly attacks, exhausting Ukrainian positions in what Kyiv described as “meat waves.” At the same time, the Wagner chief continued to publicly criticize Russia’s defense ministry for sabotaging his military gains and not sending enough shells and ammunition.
After Russia lost more than 20,000 soldiers fighting for Bakhmut, Prigozhin withdrew Wagner forces from Ukraine and rose up against President Vladimir Putin on June 23. Even though Prigozhin aborted his coup — while closing in on Moscow — in a deal brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, it weakened Putin’s image in the international arena.
In light of the humiliation for the Kremlin, Ukraine’s chief spy Kyrylo Budanov predicted Prigozhin wouldn’t be around much longer.
“We are aware that the FSB was charged with a task to assassinate him. Will they be successful in doing that? We’ll see with time. In any case, all of such potential assassination attempts will not be fast. It will take them some time to have the proper approaches and to reach the stage when they’re ready,” Budanov told the War Zone.
KYIV — An overnight naval drone attack against a Russian tanker in the Black Sea signals a potential new front in the Ukraine war, with Kyiv delivering its strongest message to date that it is willing to target Moscow’s all-important shipments of oil and fuel.
The battle for supremacy in the Black Sea is ramping up fast, with massive implications for global energy and food security. The attack on the tanker off Crimea came only a day after another Ukrainian marine drone — a flat, arrowhead-shaped vessel packed with explosives — targeted a Russian naval base near the port of Novorossiysk, badly damaging a warship.
“The tanker was damaged in the Kerch Strait during an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” Russia’s state-run TASS news agency reported on Saturday. “The crew is safe, the Maritime Rescue Center informed us. The engine room was damaged. Two tugboats arrived at the scene of an emergency with a tanker in the Kerch Strait, the question of the towing vessel is being resolved,” it said.
Russia’s Federal Marine and River Transport Agency reported it was a SIG oil and chemical tanker — a ship whose owner, St. Petersburg-based company Transpetrochart, was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2019 for supplying jet fuel for Russian forces in Syria.
Tensions are rising in the Black Sea after Russia last month announced it was withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative and started attacking Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea coast and on the Danube River with missiles, destroying tens of thousands of tons of Ukrainian grain.
After those attacks and the blockade, Ukrainian officials issued a statement in July that Russian vessels will be no longer safe in the Black Sea. Kyiv’s defense ministry said in a statement that such vessels “may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military cargo with all the corresponding risks” from midnight Friday.
On Saturday, Kyiv announced a “war risk area” around Russian ports on the Black Sea, specifically citing the ports of Novorossiysk, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Taman. The declaration will be in effect from August 23 “until further notice,” it said.
‘Completely legal’
Marine Traffic, an online maritime tracking site, has the latest position of the SIG tanker fixed near the Kerch Strait “at anchor.”
Russia’s Marine and River Transport Agency reported all 11 crew members on board were safe and that the tanker was struck in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, presumably as a result of an attack by a marine drone. By morning, the water pouring to the engine room has been staunched, and the vessel was afloat, Russian official said.
Ukraine almost never directly takes responsibility for these kinds of attacks. However, Vasyl Malyuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, has previously claimed responsibility for the attacks on the Crimean bridge and hinted that there will be more similar attacks soon.
“Anything that happens with the ships of the Russian Federation or the Crimean Bridge is an absolutely logical and effective step in relation to the enemy. Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal,” Malyuk said in a statement on Saturday.
“So, if the Russians want that to stop, they should leave the territorial waters of Ukraine and our land. And the sooner they do it, the better it will be for them. Because we will one hundred percent defeat the enemy in this war.”
Waters near Russian-occupied Crimea and the Kerch Strait are Ukrainian territorial waters, according to international maritime law.
“Since 1991, Russia has systematically used the territorial waters of Ukraine to organize armed aggressions: against the Georgian people and against the people of Syria,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a social media post on Saturday.
“Today, they terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain, condemning hundreds of millions to starvation. It’s time to say to the Russian killers, ‘It’s enough.’ There are no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas,” the ministry said.
VILNIUS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday denounced NATO negotiators for balking at offering Kyiv a concrete path to joining NATO in a draft communiqué being hammered out at an alliance summit.
The alliance’s leaders are gathering in the Lithuanian capital for a two-day summit, and Ukraine’s bid to join NATO is the most sensitive item on the agenda.
In the latest draft summit communiqué, allies are now considering stating that “we will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine when allies agree and conditions are met,” according to a senior NATO diplomat and a person familiar with the talks, who like others were granted anonymity to discuss internal negotiations.
The language is not yet finalized, but the draft seen by Kyiv on Tuesday enraged Ukraine’s leader.
“We value our allies,” Zelenskyy tweeted. “But Ukraine also deserves respect.”
“It’s unprecedented and absurd when [a] time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership. While at the same time vague wording about ‘conditions’ is added even for inviting Ukraine,” he added.
NATO allies are seeking a compromise that would both send Ukraine a public signal that it is moving closer to the alliance and placate allies — in particular Washington and Berlin — who are hesitant about making promises right now that would make post-war membership automatic.
But the Ukrainian leader, who is expected to attend the summit in Vilnius, is pushing for more.
“It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the Alliance,” he wrote. “This means that a window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in NATO in negotiations with Russia. And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror.”
U.S. President Joe Biden told NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday that he agrees “with the language you proposed relative to the future of Ukraine joining NATO.”
The Ukrainian leader’s tweet did raise eyebrows in Vilnius.
“I am critical of many aspects and particularly of some allies’ attitude, but I think that this is not a thoughtful and fair approach,” said one senior diplomat from Central Europe, adding that Zelenskyy “is going too far.”
Some diplomats said they understand the Ukrainian leader’s feelings.
“His frustration is understandable given Russia’s war of aggression,” said the first senior NATO diplomat. “It is always for allies to agree the communiqué. The summit will show steadfast and unwavering support for Ukraine.”
A second senior NATO diplomat added: “We respect everything he says. Because they are in the middle of a war and it is only understandable that they have the highest expectations.”
But, the diplomat stressed, “whatever the wording in our communiqué, all allies are agreed that Ukraine’s future rightful place is in NATO and only us and them can decide on this. So the membership perspective is unquestionably clear and strong.”
However, the person familiar with the current draft text said allies were sending a strong signal to Kyiv that this language is near final and that Ukraine should accept it.
While eastern flank NATO countries want to send a clear signal to Kyiv about a path to membership during the summit, Washington and Berlin have been more cautious, preferring to focus on helping Ukraine fend off Russia now.
“Look, we’ve already said that Ukraine’s place in the future is going to be in the alliance at some point,” John Kirby, the U.S. National Security Council spokesperson, said in Washington. “They’ve got reforms they have to work out. Rule of law, good governance, political reforms that need to be done, and they’re at war right now … Eventually, yes, NATO will be in the forefront for them, but now is not the time for that.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Vilnius: “Now it’s about us actively supporting Ukraine in defending its sovereignty and integrity — including with the arms supplies that all the countries are mobilizing,” adding: “The U.S. and Germany have participated very closely in the discussion to make it possible that we are doing exactly the right thing here.”
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was also cautious about the terms being offered to Ukraine.
“Everybody already said and emphasized over the last one-and-a-half years that the future of Ukraine is in NATO,” he told a forum at the NATO meeting. “There is no doubt about it. It’s only an issue of the way to go there. There are certain preconditions to be fulfilled. There are certain circumstances we need to make that step.”
Mutinous warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin is not currently in Belarus, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday morning, hinting the Wagner Group founder could still be in Russia.
“As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, he is in St. Petersburg. Where is he this morning? Maybe he went to Moscow, maybe somewhere else, but he is not on the territory of Belarus,” Lukashenko said, according to Belarusian state media.
The Belarusian strongman added that, “as far as I know,” Wagner’s fighters have remained at their encampments following Prigozhin’s announcement that they would stand down from their march on Moscow to avoid further bloodshed.
The mercenary chief was supposed to be in Belarus, after being exiled from Russia following an aborted mutiny he led against Moscow’s military establishment in June.
Last week, Lukashenko claimed Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus, having taken credit for brokering a cease-fire between Wagner and Moscow’s forces as its mercenaries closed in on the capital.
Since then, his whereabouts have been a mystery, with his private jet having landed in Minsk and unverified sightings of the outspoken oligarch taking social media by storm.
However, speaking to POLITICO on Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Prigozhin’s men had not moved en masse to the neighboring country.
“We have seen some preparations for the hosting of Wagner forces,” Stoltenberg said, while adding “we have so far not yet seen so many of them arriving.”
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Prigozhin’s fighters three choices — return to the front lines in Ukraine as regular Russian soldiers; go back to their families; or join their leader in Belarus.
“Wagner Group soldiers are also patriots, loyal to the state, they have proven this in combat,” the embattled Russian leader said. “They were used blindly, forced to turn on their comrades with whom they fought shoulder to shoulder.”
KYIV – Ukrainian officials and intelligence officers warned Russia could be preparing to blow up a nuclear power station, leading to a radioactive environmental disaster.
After the Kakhovka dam destruction last month, Kyiv fears the Kremlin plans to organize an explosion at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — the largest in Europe — located in the Russian-occupied city of Enerhodar.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian workers have been told to leave the power station by July 5.
“There is a serious threat. Russia is technically ready to provoke a local explosion at the plant, which could lead to the release of dangerous substances into the air,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said to Spanish journalists in Kyiv over the weekend. “We are discussing all this with our partners so that everyone understands why Russia is doing this and put pressure on the Russian Federation politically so that they don’t even think about such a thing.”
Last week as the State Emergency Service of Ukraine conducted radioactive safety drills in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported that a Russian military contingent, as well as Russian-backed nuclear power plant workers, were gradually leaving the plant.
“Among the first to leave the station were three Rosatom employees, who managed the actions of the Russians,” Ukrainian military intelligence said in a statement. They were advised to leave by July 5. “The personnel remaining at the station were instructed to blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies.”
Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a statement the fact that Ukrainian officials conducted radioactive safety drills and set additional radiation measurement devices in several cities means “Kyiv is preparing a false flag” operation. However Zakharova provided no evidence for her claim. The plant is currently Russian controlled.
Earlier last month Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov said Russia was ready to orchestrate a technological disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The part most likely to be blown up would be the artificial pond needed for cooling the power station, Budanov said.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has not confirmed Ukraine’s information that the cooling pond has been mined, although it also said it has not had full access to all sites at the plant.
According to the IAEA, its experts were able to inspect parts of the plant’s cooling system, including some sections of the perimeter of the large cooling pond, which still has a stable level of water needed to cool down the reactors. The IAEA experts have also been conducting regular walk-downs across reactor units and other areas around the site. The IAEA said it still expected to gain access to other parts of the site including the cooling system.
In an earlier update on June 21, the IAEA said that while they did not see any visible mines around the cooling pond, experts were aware of previous placements of mines outside the plant perimeter and also at particular places inside, which Russian security personnel on site explained were for defensive purposes.
Zelenskyy has not backed down on his claims, saying Russians might blow up the power station at some point in future, even when it comes back under Ukrainian control, using mines that can be activated from a distance. “There can be remote mines — then to say that everything was fine under the control of the occupiers, but blew up as soon as it went back to Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said.
