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Tag: Russia-Ukraine war

  • Hijacked satellites and orbiting space weapons

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    WASHINGTON — As Russia held its Victory Day parade this year, hackers backing the Kremlin hijacked an orbiting satellite that provides television service to Ukraine.

    Instead of normal programing, Ukrainian viewers saw parade footage beamed in from Moscow: waves of tanks, soldiers and weaponry. The message was meant to intimidate, and it was also an illustration that 21st century war is waged not just on land, sea and air but also in cyberspace and the reaches of outer space.

    Disabling a satellite could deal a devastating blow without a single bullet, and it can be done by targeting the satellite’s security software or disrupting its ability to send or receive signals from Earth.

    “If you can impede a satellite’s ability to communicate, you can cause a significant disruption,” said Tom Pace, CEO of NetRise, a cybersecurity firm focused on protecting supply chains. He served in the Marines before working on cyber issues at the Department of Energy.

    “Think about GPS,” he said. “Imagine if a population lost that, and the confusion it would cause.”

    More than 12,000 operating satellites now orbit the planet, playing a critical role not just in broadcast communications but also in military operations, navigation systems like GPS, intelligence gathering and economic supply chains. They are also key to early launch-detection efforts, which can warn of approaching missiles.

    That makes them a significant national security vulnerability, and a prime target for anyone looking to undermine an adversary’s economy or military readiness — or to deliver a psychological blow like the hackers supporting Russia did when they hijacked television signals to Ukraine.

    Hackers typically look for the weakest link in the software or hardware that supports a satellite or controls its communications with Earth. The actual orbiting device may be secure, but if it’s running on outdated software, it can be easily exploited.

    As Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, someone targeted Viasat, the U.S.-based satellite company used by Ukraine’s government and military. The hack, which Kyiv blamed on Moscow, used malware to infect tens of thousands of modems, creating an outage affecting wide swaths of Europe.

    National security officials say Russia is developing a nuclear, space-based weapon designed to take out virtually every satellite in low-Earth orbit at once. The weapon would combine a physical attack that would ripple outward, destroying more satellites, while the nuclear component is used to fry their electronics.

    U.S. officials declassified information about the weapon after Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, issued a public warning about the technology. Turner has pushed for the Department of Defense to provide a classified briefing to lawmakers on the weapon, which, if deployed, would violate an international treaty prohibiting weapons of mass destruction in space.

    Turner said such a weapon could render low-Earth orbit unusable for satellites for as long as a year. If it were used, the effects would be devastating: potentially leaving the U.S. and its allies vulnerable to economic upheaval and even a nuclear attack.

    Russia and China also would lose satellites, though they are believed to be less reliant on the same kinds of satellites as the U.S.

    Turner compared the weapon, which is not yet ready for deployment, to Sputnik, the Russian satellite that launched the space age in 1957.

    “If this anti-satellite nuclear weapon would be put in space, it would be the end of the space age,” Turner said. “It should never be permitted to go into outer space. This is the Cuban Missile Crisis in space.”

    Valuable minerals and other materials found on the moon and in asteroids could lead to future conflicts as nations look to exploit new technologies and energy sources.

    Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy announced plans this month to send a small nuclear reactor to the moon, saying it’s important that the U.S. do so before China or Russia.

    “We’re in a race to the moon, in a race with China to the moon,” Duffy said. “To have a base on the moon, we need energy and some of the key locations on the moon. … We want to get there first and claim that for America.”

    The moon is rich in a material known as helium 3, which scientists believe could be used in nuclear fusion to generate huge amounts of energy. While that technology is still decades away, control over the moon in the intervening years could determine which countries emerge as superpowers, according to Joseph Rooke, a London-based cybersecurity expert who has worked in the U.K. defense industry and is now director of risk insights at the firm Recorded Future.

    The end of the Cold War temporarily halted a lot of investments in space, but competition is likely to increase as the promise of mining the moon becomes a reality.

    “This isn’t sci-fi. It’s quickly becoming a reality,” Rooke said. “If you dominate Earth’s energy needs, that’s game over.”

    China and Russia have announced plans for their own nuclear plants on the moon in the coming years, while the U.S. is planning missions to the moon and Mars. Artificial intelligence is likely to speed up the competition, as is the demand for the energy that AI requires.

    Messages left with Russia’s Embassy in Washington were not returned.

    Despite its steps into outer space, China opposes any extraterrestrial arms race, according to Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for China’s Embassy in Washington. He said it is the U.S. that is threatening to militarize the final frontier.

    “It has kept expanding military strength in space, created space military alliances, and attempted to turn space into a war zone,” Liu said. “China urges the U.S. to stop spreading irresponsible rhetoric, stop expanding military build-up in space, and make due contribution to upholding the lasting peace and security in space.”

    Nations are scrambling to create their own rocket and space programs to exploit commercial prospects and ensure they aren’t dependent on foreign satellites. It’s an expensive and difficult proposition, as demonstrated last week when the first Australian-made rocket crashed after 14 seconds of flight.

    The U.S. Space Force was created in 2019 to protect American interests in space and to defend U.S. satellites from attacks from adversaries.

    The space service is far smaller than the more well-established services like the Army, Navy or Air Force, but it’s growing, and the White House is expected to announce a location for its headquarters soon. Colorado and Alabama are both candidates.

    The U.S. military operates an unmanned space shuttle used to conduct classified military missions and research. The craft, known as the X-37B, recently returned to Earth after more than a year in orbit.

    The Space Force called access to space a vital national security interest.

    “Space is a warfighting domain, and it is the Space Force’s job to contest and control its environment to achieve national security objectives,” it said in the statement.

    American dominance in space has been largely unquestioned for decades following the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union. But the new threats and competition posed by Russia and China show the need for an aggressive response, U.S. officials say.

    The hope, Turner said, is that the U.S. can take steps to ensure Russia and China can’t get the upper hand, and the frightening potential of space weapons is not realized.

    “You have to pay attention to these things so they don’t happen,” Turner said.

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  • Trump runs into the difficulty of Putin diplomacy and ending a long war

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    By Jill Colvin and Emma Burrows | Associated Press

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  • Germany’s top diplomat is in Kyiv as Ukraine girds for impact of US election on the war

    Germany’s top diplomat is in Kyiv as Ukraine girds for impact of US election on the war

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    KYIV, Ukraine — Germany’s top diplomat arrived Monday in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on an unannounced visit, in what appeared to be a show of European support for Ukraine on the eve of a U.S. presidential election that could bring far-reaching changes in Washington’s policy toward Russia’s all-out invasion of its neighbor.

    Germany is Ukraine’s second biggest weapons supplier after the U.S., and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock vowed that Berlin’s backing would remain steadfast.

    “Together with many partners around the world, Germany stands firmly by Ukraine’s side,” she said, German news agency dpa reported. “We will support the Ukrainians for as long as they need us so that they can continue on their path to a just peace.”

    The war is at a critical moment for Ukraine, with the Russian army making creeping gains on the battlefield and another hard winter ahead after Russia relentlessly battered the Ukrainian power grid.

    With his army under severe Russian pressure in the eastern Donetsk region, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that Western military aid deliveries have accelerated, including for artillery.

    The grinding attritional warfare being fought in Ukraine requires large amounts of ammunition, and Ukrainian officials have long grumbled that Western pledges of support take too long to arrive.

    Zelenskyy said Ukraine is also trying to strengthen its air defense systems. Russia is currently deploying about 10 times more Iranian-made Shahed drones than it was this time last year, he said.

    Ahead of the U.S. election, Zelenskyy attempted to lock Ukraine’s Western supporters into a long-term “victory plan,” including a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia, but the response was disappointing for Kyiv officials.

    Russia is using its superior numbers to heap pressure on Ukrainian positions along the front line. Ukraine’s top commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Saturday his troops are struggling to hold back “one of the most powerful (Russian) offensives” of the war.

    Russia is now adding to its offensive push what Western intelligence sources say is a force of about 10,000 North Korean combat troops sent by Pyongyang under a pact with Moscow.

    That has deepened Zelenskyy’s frustration with Western help. On Saturday, he urged allies to stop “watching” and take steps before the North Korean troops reach the battlefield.

    Zelenskyy said Kyiv knows at which Russian camps the North Korean troops are being trained but Ukraine can’t strike them without permission from allies to use the Western-made long-range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.

    Baerbock arrived in Kyiv hours after debris from drones intercepted by air defenses fell in two districts of the city, starting small fires, officials said. No people or property were harmed, according to the head of the Kyiv city administration, Serhii Popko.

    A Russian glide bomb attack on Sunday night injured 15 people in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the northeast, regional police said.

    Russia fired some 80 Shahed drones at Ukrainian cities overnight, Ukraine’s air force said.

    ___

    Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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  • The UAE opens its annual oil-and-gas summit as industry weathers Mideast wars and awaits US election

    The UAE opens its annual oil-and-gas summit as industry weathers Mideast wars and awaits US election

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    ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — The United Arab Emirates opened its annual oil-and-gas summit on Monday as it plans to increase the country’s energy output as global prices stay volatile and world politics remain uncertain ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

    The massive Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference comes after the UAE just last year hosted the United Nations COP28 climate talks. Those talks ended with a call by nearly 200 countries to move away from planet-warming fossil fuels — the first time the conference made that crucial pledge.

    But the UAE as a whole still plans to increase its production capacity of oil to 5 million barrels a day in the coming years as it pursues more cleaner energies at home. Meanwhile, UAE officials have made a point to dodge any questions about the U.S. election while maintaining their close ties to Russia despite Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

    “Allow me to say that we in the United Arab Emirates will always choose partnership over polarization, dialogue over division and peace over provocation,” said Sultan al-Jaber, who heads the state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, and who also led the COP28 talks in Dubai.

    Crude oil prices have been depressed this year. Benchmark Brent crude traded around $74 a barrel on Monday as prices have dropped after concerns over the ongoing Mideast wars growing into a regional conflict faded in recent days.

    Slowing economic growth in China and ample supply in the market are additionally dragging down prices.

    In his speech opening the summit, al-Jaber pointed to artificial intelligence as a future technology that could be deployed by the energy industry — and one with a voracious appetite for electricity.

    “No single source of energy is going to be enough to meet this demand,” he said. He called for a variety of energy sources to meet that challenge, including fossil fuels.

    “Oil will continue to be used for fuel and as a building block for many essential products,” al-Jaber added.

    Scientists have called for drastically slashing the world’s emissions by nearly half in the coming years to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with pre-industrial times.

    The 2015 Paris Agreement mentions that limit without specifically calling for a stop on using fossil fuels — something that OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais seized on in remarks.

    “The Paris Agreement, ladies and gentlemen, is about the reduction of emissions,” he said. “It’s not about phasing out or phasing down or keeping the oil under the ground.”

    Suhail al-Mazrouei, the Emirates’ minister of energy and infrastructure, separately stressed that “investments in the oil and gas need to be taken care of” to support demand in the market.

    “We are committed to invest in making more resources in the future to ensure the world will have adequate oil and gas resources,” he said.

    Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s minister of petroleum and natural gas, separately made a point to criticize what he described as his “ideologically motivated colleagues” who sought an end to fossil fuel production.

    “As we accelerate other green energy transition, we will still need affordable traditional energy at least for two decades, if not longer,” he said.

    Politics was also close at hand at the summit on Monday. Whispers among the crowd attending the opening pondered who would be better for their businesses, Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.

    Al-Mazrouei dodged the first question by a presenter over whether his country preferred Trump or Harris.

    “Of course, we will be discussing energy politics here and I (would) rather not … talk about the election in the United States,” al-Mazrouei said. “As a political contest, we wish both candidates the best.”

    Later, ADNOC executive Musabbeh al-Kaabi said he worried that “escalating tensions and trade wars may have an impact on the energy transition going forward.” However, he declined to comment directly on the election.

    The UAE maintains close ties to Russia despite Western sanctions over Moscow’s war. An announcer told the crowd where to find Russian translation for the event, while one of the main partners of the summit was Lukoil, Russia’s largest non-state oil firm.

    Meanwhile, the Mideast wars remain a top concern.

    “I think the conflict in the Middle East is probably the top risk,” U.K.-based BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said. “We’re worried about the safety and security of our people and the security of energy flows.”

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  • Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 983

    Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 983

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    As the war enters its 983rd day, these are the main developments.

    Here is the situation on Monday, November 4:

    Fighting

    • Debris from destroyed Russian drones started park and grass fires in Kyiv, the mayor of the Ukrainian capital said on Monday. Emergency crews were dispatched, with no immediate reports of casualties.
    • Meanwhile, Ukraine’s air defence units tried to repel a Russian drone attack on Kyiv, the military administration said on Monday. “Stay in shelters!” Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s military administration posted on Telegram.
    • A Russian guided bomb attack late on Sunday, which hit a supermarket in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, injured four people. An earlier strike had hit a forested area of the city.
    • Russia’s military said on Sunday its forces had taken control of the village of Vyshneve in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region as they pursue their advance towards the logistical centre of Pokrovsk.
    • One man was killed by a Ukrainian drone attack in Russia’s Belgorod region on Sunday, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Telegram.
    • A second Taiwanese volunteer fighting alongside Ukrainian soldiers against Russia has been killed, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Sunday. The man was a member of Ukraine’s military legion of foreign fighters, the ministry said in a statement.

    Diplomacy

    • United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said he is “very concerned” about reports that North Korean troops have been sent to Russia to possibly aid in its war against Ukraine, said Stephane Dujarric, the UN chief’s spokesperson, on Sunday.
    • Europe will need to rethink its support of Ukraine if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on Sunday, as the continent “will not be able to bear the burdens of the war alone”. Orban opposes military aid to Ukraine and supports Trump in the election, believing he shares his views and would negotiate a peace settlement for Ukraine.

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  • Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says Russia war is being pushed ‘beyond borders’

    Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says Russia war is being pushed ‘beyond borders’

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    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the thousands of North Korean soldiers expected to reinforce Russian troops on the front line in Ukraine are pushing the almost three-year war beyond the borders of the warring parties.

    Western leaders say North Korea has sent some 10,000 soldiers to help Russia’s military campaign and warn that its involvement in a European war could also unsettle relations in the Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and Australia.

    Zelenskyy said on Tuesday he spoke to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and told him that 3,000 North Korean soldiers are already at military bases close to the Ukrainian front line and that he expects that deployment to increase to 12,000.

    Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder on Tuesday said a “relatively small number” of North Korean troops are now in Russia’s Kursk region, where Russian troops have been struggling to push back a Ukrainian incursion, and a couple thousand more are heading in that direction.

    South Korea, which has been in close contact with NATO, the US and the European Union about the latest developments, warned last week that it could send arms to Ukraine in retaliation for the North’s involvement.

    “There is only one conclusion – this war is internationalised and goes beyond the borders” of Ukraine and Russia, Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram.

    The Ukrainian president also said he and Yoon agreed to step up their countries’ cooperation and exchange more intelligence, as well as develop concrete responses to Pyongyang’s involvement.

    More US military support?

    In Washington, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Tuesday with Zelenskyy’s top adviser to discuss the North Korean troops, as well as a coming surge of weaponry that the US is delivering to Kyiv to help the Ukrainians harden protection of their energy infrastructure, The Associated Press news agency reported, citing White House officials familiar with their private talks.

    Sullivan and Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president’s office, shared concerns that North Korean troops could be deployed to Russia’s Kursk region and what such a development could mean for the war.

    The officials, who were not authorised to comment publicly, said during the two-hour meeting at the White House, Sullivan also briefed Yermak on President Joe Biden’s plans to push additional artillery systems, ammunition, hundreds of armoured vehicles and more to Ukraine before he leaves office in January.

    Sullivan told Yermak that by year’s end, the US administration plans to provide Ukraine with 500 additional Patriot and ARAAM missiles to help bolster air defences, according to the officials.

    Later on Tuesday, Biden said Ukraine should strike back if North Korean troops crossed into the country.

    “I am concerned about it,” Biden said when asked about North Korean troops being present in the Kursk region.

    “If they cross into Ukraine, yes,” he said when asked if the Ukrainians should strike back.

    Meanwhile, North Korea said its top diplomat was visiting Russia, in another sign of their deepening relationship.

    North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui arrived in Russia’s far east on Tuesday on her way to Moscow, Russian state media said. Russian state news agencies said it was not clear who Choe, making her second visit in six weeks, would meet.

    The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had no plans to meet her.

    What role the North Korean troops may play remains unclear.

    “The numbers make this more than a symbolic effort, but the troops will likely be in support roles and constitute less than 1 percent of Russia’s forces,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank said in a note.

    “Russia is desperate for additional manpower, and this is one element of Russia’s effort to fill the ranks without a second mobilisation,” it added, noting the presence could grow.

    Ukraine cities bombarded

    Meanwhile, Russian drones, missiles and bombs smashed into Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s biggest cities, in nighttime attacks, killing four people and wounding 15 in a continuing aerial onslaught, authorities said Tuesday.

    Russia has bombarded civilian areas of Ukraine almost daily since its full-scale invasion of its neighbour, causing thousands of casualties.

    The Russian army is also pushing hard against front-line defences in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that Russian troops captured the Donetsk town of Hirnyk and the villages of Katerynivka, and Bohoiavlenka.

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  • Your guide to Georgia’s crucial election: A nation torn between Russia, EU

    Your guide to Georgia’s crucial election: A nation torn between Russia, EU

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    Georgians will vote in parliamentary elections on Saturday that look set to define whether the mountainous nation that straddles Eastern Europe and West Asia will pivot towards Moscow or Brussels.

    The geopolitical bifurcation of the country’s politics has been gradually building for years but came to the fore in April, when wide-scale protests broke out.

    They came in opposition to a controversial “foreign agents” law passed in May. Critics say it resembles Russian legislation, which has been used to crack down on dissent.

    For many protesters, it also points to the Georgian Dream’s pro-Russia tilt, as the governing party seeks to secure a fourth term in power.

    Pro-Western opposition parties aim to form a coalition to secure a majority government and set the country back on the path to European Union membership.

    The opposition can rely on widescale support from the country’s largely western-leaning Gen Z, while Georgia Dream enjoys support among the country’s older generation and voters in rural areas.

    Polls suggest it will be a tightly contested battle. As the Russia-Ukraine war rages on, observers have drawn parallels with recent votes in Moldova, a nation also divided between pro-Russia and pro-West factions.

    Here is what you need to know:

    What’s important about these elections?

    It depends on who you ask.

    “If you listen to the government, this is a choice between peace and war. [For] the opposition, this is a choice between the EU and Russia, and according to civil society, this is a choice between democracy and authoritarianism,” Kornely Kakachia, a professor and the director of the Georgian Institute of Politics, told Al Jazeera.

    Experts agree that geopolitics will be a defining factor in these elections.

    Voters will decide “what kind of state they want to build”, Kakachia said.

    Pro-EU protesters march outside Georgia’s parliament in June 2024 [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera]

    They will either continue to look westwards and pursue the country’s ambition to become a full member of the EU, which is enshrined in its constitution, or turn back to Russia, a country Georgia, as a post-Soviet state, shares a long and complicated history with.

    Russia and Georgia fought a five-day war in 2008 over the breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions in which several hundred people were killed and thousands of ethnic Georgians were displaced.

    The conflict ended in a decisive victory for Russia after its troops swiftly reached a vital highway and camped within striking distance of Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi.

    European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia. Nils Adler
    Members of the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia observe a Russian military base in South Ossetia, June 2024 [File: Nils Adler/Al Jazeera]

    Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe specialising in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region, told Al Jazeera that the vote will define whether Georgia is “going to survive as a democracy” or, if Georgian Dream wins, whether it will become a one-party state like some other counties in the region, including Azerbaijan.

    He cited Georgia’s Dream’s recent promise to ban the largest opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), if it wins as a sign that Georgia could pivot more to a form of “illiberal democracy”.

    What is Georgia Dream and is it pro-Russian?

    Georgian Dream was established by the billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili in 2012 and had initially been perceived as a pro-European party.

    De Waal said that during the party’s first term in power, it enjoyed strong relations with Brussels, culminating in the 2014 Association Agreement that deepened economic and trade ties.

    However, in recent years, the party, particularly Ivanishvili, who made his money in Russia, has shown signs that it is moving closer to Moscow.

    After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Georgia’s government did not support the West’s sanctions against Moscow, and Ivanishvili has failed to publicly condemn it.

    Ivanishvili
    Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili attends the final campaign rally of the ruling Georgian Dream party in Tbilisi on October 23, 2024 [Giorgi Arjevanidze/AFP]

    However, with about 80 percent of the population supporting EU membership, Kakachia explained that the government cannot vocally denounce the EU or any ambitions to shift away from its influence.

    He said instead, the party has focused on criticising the opposition parties and Western influence for threatening to drag Georgia into the war on Ukraine.

    In turn, it promotes deepening relations with Moscow to avoid antagonising its neighbour.

    At the same time, he said the party signals a desire for Georgia to join the EU but on its “own terms”, which he suggests would look like Hungary’s fractious relationship with the bloc under Viktor Orban.

    Does the UNM stand a chance of toppling Georgia Dream?

    Not by itself.

    Polls range from 13 percent to 20 percent for the party founded by ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili in 2003, the same year it came to power.

    In its third term in power, it was mired by scandals. After wide-scale protests, it was toppled by a coalition formed by Georgian Dream in 2012.

    Saakashvili was arrested in October 2021 after returning to Georgia from Ukraine and is currently serving a six-year jail sentence for “abuse of office”.

    Mikheil Saakashvili
    Georgia’s ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili, centre, gestures surrounded by bodyguards as he tries to leave a terminal upon his arrival at Boryspil Airport, outside Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 29, 2019 [File: Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo]

    The legacy has led to the UNM being perceived as a “toxic brand” for many voters, De Waal said, with many opposition parties seeking to distance themselves from any association with the former president.

    What is the Georgian Charter?

    The charter is an agreement between 19 political parties to consolidate pro-European opposition to Georgian Dream.

    It was introduced in May by Georgia’s current president, Salome Zourabichvili, and promises that if the opposition secures a majority, it will implement judicial and anticorruption reforms under a temporary government to put the country back on track for accession talks with the EU.

    Georgia
    Tensions simmered in Tbilisi after the ‘foreign agents’ bill was passed, and pro-Europe graffiti can be seen across Georgia’s capital. Tbilisi, Georgia, June 2024 [Nils Adler/Al Jazeera]

    According to the charter, after the reforms have been implemented, the temporary government will call snap elections.

    What are the possible outcomes?

    It is difficult to judge.

    The polls suggest that Georgian Dream will secure the most votes but not the majority – at least 76 votes out of 150 parliamentary seats – needed to form a government.

    All opposition parties have ruled out forming a working agreement with Georgia Dream, which could see it cross the threshold.

    De Waal said although the opposition parties stand a real chance of getting the 50 percent of votes needed to form a government, they lack “one charismatic leader” which could matter in such a close race.

    Kakachia cannot predict who will win, but he said election day will represent the “calm before the storm”.

    If Georgia Dream retains power, he expects the younger generation to protest against a return to a Russian sphere of influence, 33 years after independence.

    Should the opposition win, Kakachia predicts a need for international mediation and shuttle diplomacy from the US and other foreign actors to appease Ivanishvili and provide him with security and financial guarantees.

    Earlier in October, the EU adopted a resolution calling on its member states to impose personal sanctions on Ivanishvili.

    Kakachia said Georgia’s neighbour, Russia, would also be antagonised by an opposition win, leading to possible geopolitical consequences.

    He said Moscow could signal its displeasure with a new EU-friendly government by introducing a trade embargo.

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  • EU leader praises Serbia for its advances in EU membership bid despite growing Russian influence

    EU leader praises Serbia for its advances in EU membership bid despite growing Russian influence

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    BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday praised the Serbian president for meeting her and other European Union leaders instead of attending a Russia-organized summit of developing economies held earlier this week.

    Serbia has close ties to Russia and has refused to join international sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. In a telephone conversation Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, populist Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said EU candidate Serbia would maintain its stance on sanctions, notwithstanding EU and other Western pressure.

    However, despite Putin’s invitation, Vucic did not attend a three-day summit of the BRICS group of nations, led by Russia and China, which took place in the Russian city of Kazan earlier this week. Leaders or representatives of 36 countries took part in the summit, highlighting the failure of U.S.-led efforts to isolate Russia over its actions in Ukraine.

    Vucic sent a high-level delegation to the meeting, but said he could not attend himself because he had scheduled meetings with von der Leyen and Polish and Greek leaders. There are fears in the West that Putin is plotting trouble in the volatile Balkans in part to shift some of the attention from its invasion of Ukraine.

    “What I see is that the president of the Republic of Serbia is hosting me here today and just has hosted the prime minister of Greece and the prime minister of Poland. That speaks for itself, I think,” von der Leyen said at a joint press conference with Vucic.

    “And for my part, I want to say that my presence here today, in the context of my now fourth trip to the Balkan region since I took office, is a very clear sign that I believe that Serbia’s future is in the European Union,” she said.

    Vucic said he knows what the EU is demanding for eventual membership — including compliance with foreign policy goals — but did not pledge further coordination.

    “Of course, Ursula asked for much greater compliance with EU’s foreign policy declaration,” he said. “We clearly know what the demands are, what the expectations are.”

    Von der Leyen was in Serbia as part of a trip this week to aspiring EU member states in the Western Balkans to assure them that EU enlargement remains a priority for the 27-nation bloc. From Serbia, von der Leyen will travel to neighboring Kosovo and Montenegro.

    Serbian media reported that von der Leyen refused to meet with Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic because of his talks Friday with a high-level Russian economic delegation, which was in Belgrade to discuss deepening ties with Serbia. Vucic will meet the Russian officials on Saturday.

    In Bosnia on Friday, von der Leyen promised support for the deeply split Balkan country which is struggling with the reforms needed to advance toward EU membership.

    The Western Balkan countries — Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia — are at different stages in their applications for EU membership. The countries have been frustrated by the slow pace of the process, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has propelled European leaders to push the six to join the bloc.

    Bosnia gained candidate status in 2022. EU leaders in March agreed in principle to open membership negotiations, though Bosnia must still do a lot of work.

    “We share the same vision for the future, a future where Bosnia-Herzegovina is a full-fledged member of the European Union,” said von der Leyen at a joint press conference with Bosnian Prime Minister Bojana Kristo. “So, I would say, let’s continue working on that. We’ve gone a long way already, we still have a way ahead of us, but I am confident that you’ll make it.”

    Last year EU officials offered a 6-billion-euro (about $6.5 billion) growth plan to the Western Balkan countries in an effort to double the region’s economy over the next decade and accelerate their efforts to join the bloc. That aid is contingent on reforms that would bring their economies in line with EU rules.

    The Commission on Wednesday approved the reform agendas of Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia following a green light from EU member states. That was a key step to allow payments under the growth plan upon completion of agreed reform steps.

    However, Bosnia’s reform agenda has still not been signed off by the Commission.

    “The accession process is, as you know, merit-based … we do not look at a rigid data but we look at the merits, the progress that a country is making,” said von der Leyen. “The important thing is that we have an ambitious reform agenda, like the other five Western Balkan countries also have. We stand ready to help you to move forward.”

    Long after a 1992-95 ethnic war that killed more than 100,000 people and left millions homeless, Bosnia remains ethnically divided and politically deadlocked. An ethnic Serb entity — one of Bosnia’s two equal parts joined by a common government — has sought to gain as much independence as possible.

    Upon arrival in Bosnia, von der Leyen on Thursday first went to Donja Jablanica, a village in central Bosnia that was devastated in recent floods and landslides. The disaster in early October claimed 27 lives and the small village was virtually buried in rocks from a quarry located on a hill above.

    Von der Leyen said the EU is sending an immediate aid package of 20 million euros ($21 million) and will also provide support for reconstruction later on.

    —-

    AP writer Jovana Gec contributed from Belgrade.

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  • A glance at Ukraine’s plan aimed at nudging Russia into talks to end the war

    A glance at Ukraine’s plan aimed at nudging Russia into talks to end the war

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    KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has partially revealed his five-point plan aimed at prompting Russia to end the war through negotiations. A key element would be a formal invitation into NATO, which Western backers have been reluctant to consider until after the war ends.

    Zelenskyy outlined the plan to Ukraine’s Parliament on Wednesday without disclosing confidential elements that have been presented in private to key allies, including the United States.

    Here’s what we know:

    The plan’s first section involves formally inviting Ukraine to join NATO in the near future.

    While this doesn’t mean Ukraine would become a member until after the war ends, it would signal a “testament of determination” and demonstrate how Western partners view Ukraine within the “security architecture,” Zelenskyy said.

    “For decades, Russia has exploited the geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, particularly the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member,” Zelenskyy said. “This has tempted Russia to encroach upon our security.”

    He described the invitation to join NATO as “truly fundamental for peace” in Ukraine.

    NATO partners have been reluctant to invite Ukraine to join while the war is ongoing, and Zelenskyy’s request for an invitation puts the military alliance in a difficult position.

    Since the onset of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the alliance has faced challenges in finding ways to bring Ukraine closer without formally extending an invitation.

    At their summit in Washington in July, NATO’s 32 members declared Ukraine on an “irreversible” path to membership. But any decision on offering to start membership talks is not likely before the next summit in the Netherlands in June.

    The second section, entitled defense, focuses on strengthening Ukraine’s capability to reclaim territory and “to bring the war back to the Russian territory.”

    It includes the continuation of military operations in Russia with the aim of strengthening Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian forces from occupied territories in Ukraine.

    It also would involve enhancing air defense and jointly intercepting Russian missiles and drones with neighboring countries along the international border. Ukraine wants to expand the use of Ukrainian drones and missiles, and lift restrictions on using Western-supplied weapons for long-range strikes against military infrastructure inside Russia.

    Ukraine also seeks greater access to a broader range of intelligence from allies and real-time satellite data. This section of the plan has confidential elements accessible only to allies with the “relevant assistance potential,” Zelenskyy said.

    He said Ukraine has been providing its partners “with a clear justification of what its goals are, how they intend to achieve them, and how much this will reduce Russia’s ability to continue the war.”

    Western partners have been wary of Ukraine using donated weapons in anything but a defensive capacity, for fear of being drawn into the conflict.

    Ukraine has long been lobbying for the U.S. to drop its restrictions on using long-range Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, but the Biden administration’s red line remained unchanged even after Zelenskyy’s recent visit to Washington, D.C.

    In the deterrence section of the plan, Ukraine calls for deploying “a comprehensive non-nuclear deterrence package on its territory that would be sufficient to protect the country from any military threat posed by Russia.”

    Zelenskyy did not elaborate on the details of such a non-nuclear deterrence, but he said it would be used against specific Russian military targets, meaning that Russia would “face the loss of its war machine.”

    He said this capability would limit Russia’s options for continuing its aggression and prod it into engaging in a fair diplomatic process to resolve the war.

    Classified elements of this section have been shared with the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany, he said. Other countries capable of contributing also would be briefed, Zelenskyy said.

    The fourth section focuses on developing Ukraine’s strategic economic potential and strengthening sanctions against Russia.

    Zelenskyy highlighted that Ukraine is rich in natural resources, including critically important metals “worth trillions of U.S. dollars,” such as uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, etc.

    “Ukraine’s deposits of critical resources, combined with its globally significant potential in energy and food production, are among Russia’s key objectives in this war,” he said. But it also “represents our opportunity for growth.”

    The economic component of the plan also includes a confidential addendum shared only with selected partners, he said.

    “Ukraine offers … a special agreement for the joint protection of Ukraine’s critical resources, shared investment, and use of its economic potential,” he said. “This, too, is peace through strength — economic strength.”

    The fifth section is geared toward the post-war period. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will have a big army of experienced military personnel after the war.

    “These are our soldiers — warriors who will possess real experience in modern warfare, successful use of Western weaponry, and extensive interaction with NATO forces,” he said. “This Ukrainian experience should be used to strengthen the alliance’s defense and ensure security in Europe. It’s a worthy mission for our heroes.”

    He also mentioned that, with partners’ approval, Ukrainian units could replace certain U.S. military contingents stationed in Europe.

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  • Africans recruited to work in Russia say they were duped into building drones for use in Ukraine

    Africans recruited to work in Russia say they were duped into building drones for use in Ukraine

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    The social media ads promised the young African women a free plane ticket, money and a faraway adventure in Europe. Just complete a computer game and a 100-word Russian vocabulary test.

    But instead of a work-study program in fields like hospitality and catering, some of them learned only after arriving on the steppes of Russia’s Tatarstan region that they would be toiling in a factory to make weapons of war, assembling thousands of Iranian-designed attack drones to be launched into Ukraine.

    In interviews with The Associated Press, some of the women complained of long hours under constant surveillance, of broken promises about wages and areas of study, and of working with caustic chemicals that left their skin pockmarked and itching.

    To fill an urgent labor shortage in wartime Russia, the Kremlin has been recruiting women aged 18-22 from places like Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, South Sudan, Sierra Leone and Nigeria, as well as the South Asian country of Sri Lanka. The drive is expanding to elsewhere in Asia as well as Latin America.

    That has put some of Moscow’s key weapons production in the inexperienced hands of about 200 African women who are working alongside Russian vocational students as young as 16 in the plant in Tatarstan’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) east of Moscow, according to an AP investigation of the industrial complex.

    “I don’t really know how to make drones,” said one African woman who had abandoned a job at home and took the Russian offer.

    The AP analyzed satellite images of the complex and its internal documents, spoke to a half-dozen African women who ended up there, and tracked down hundreds of videos in the online recruiting program dubbed “Alabuga Start” to piece together life at the plant.

    The woman who agreed to work in Russia excitedly documented her journey, taking selfies at the airport and shooting video of her airline meal and of the in-flight map, focusing on the word “Europe” and pointing to it with her long, manicured nails.

    When she arrived in Alabuga, however, she soon learned what she would be doing and realized it was “a trap.”

    “The company is all about making drones. Nothing else,” said the woman, who assembled airframes. “I regret and I curse the day I started making all those things.”

    One possible clue about what was in store for the applicants was their vocabulary test that included words like “factory” and the verbs “to hook” and “to unhook.”

    The workers were under constant surveillance in their dorms and at work, the hours were long and the pay was less than she expected — details corroborated by three other women interviewed by AP, which is not identifying them by name or nationality out of concern for their safety.

    Factory management apparently tries to discourage the African women from leaving, and although some reportedly have left or found work elsewhere in Russia, AP was unable to verify that independently.

    Russia and Iran signed a $1.7 billion deal in 2022, after President Vladimir Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine, and Moscow began using Iranian imports of the unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, in battle later that year.

    The Alabuga Special Economic Zone was set up in 2006 to attract businesses and investment to Tatarstan. It expanded rapidly after the invasion and parts switched to military production, adding or renovating new buildings, according to satellite images.

    Although some private companies still operate there, the plant is referred to as “Alabuga” in leaked documents that detail contracts between Russia and Iran.

    The Shahed-136 drones were first shipped disassembled to Russia, but production has shifted to Alabuga and possibly another factory. Alabuga now is Russia’s main plant for making the one-way, exploding drones, with plans to produce 6,000 of them a year by 2025, according to the leaked documents and the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security.

    That target is now ahead of schedule, with Alabuga building 4,500, said David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector who works at the institute.

    Finding workers was a problem. With unemployment at record lows and many Russians already working in military industries, fighting in Ukraine or having fled abroad, plant officials turned to using vocational students and cheap foreign labor.

    Alabuga is the only Russian production facility that recruits women from Africa, Asia and South America to make weapons according to experts and the AP investigation.

    About 90% of the foreign women recruited via the Alabuga Start program work on making drones, particularly the parts “that don’t require much skill,” he said.

    Documents leaked last year and verified by Albright and another drone expert detail the workforce growing from just under 900 people in 2023 to plans for over 2,600 in 2025. They show that foreign women largely assemble the drones, use chemicals and paint them.

    In the first half of this year, 182 women were recruited, largely from Central and East African countries, according to a Facebook page promoting the Alabuga Start program. It also recruits in South America and Asia “to help ladies to start their career.”

    Officials held recruiting events in Uganda, and tried to recruit from its orphanages, according to messages on Alabuga’s Telegram channel. Russian officials have also visited more than 26 embassies in Moscow to push the program.

    The campaign gave no reasons why it doesn’t seek older women or men, but some analysts suggest officials could believe young women are easier to control. One of the leaked documents shows the assembly lines are segregated and uses a derogatory term referring to the African workers.

    The factory also draws workers from Alabuga Polytechnic, a nearby vocational boarding school for Russians age 16-18 and Central Asians age 18-22 that bills its graduates as experts in drone production. According to investigative outlets Protokol and Razvorot, some are as young as 15 and have complained of poor working conditions.

    The foreign workers travel by bus from their living quarters to the factory, passing multiple security checkpoints after a license plate scan, while other vehicles are stopped for more stringent checks, according to the woman who assembles drones.

    They share dormitories and kitchens that are “guarded around the clock,” social media posts say. Entry is controlled via facial recognition, and recruits are watched on surveillance cameras. Pets, alcohol and drugs are not allowed.

    The foreigners receive local SIM cards for their phones upon arrival but are forbidden from bringing them into the factory, which is considered a sensitive military site.

    One woman said she could only talk to an AP reporter with her manager’s permission, another said her “messages are monitored,” a third said workers are told not to talk to outsiders about their work, and a fourth said managers encouraged them to inform on co-workers.

    The airframe worker told AP the recruits are taught how to assemble the drones and coat them with a caustic substance with the consistency of yogurt.

    Many workers lack protective gear, she said, adding that the chemicals made her face feel like it was being pricked with tiny needles, and “small holes” appeared on her cheeks, making them itch severely.

    “My God, I could scratch myself! I could never get tired of scratching myself,” she said.

    “A lot of girls are suffering,” she added. A video shared with AP showed another woman wearing an Alabuga uniform with her face similarly affected.

    Although AP could not determine what the chemicals were, drone expert Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies confirmed that caustic substances are used in their manufacture.

    In addition to dangers from chemicals, the complex itself was hit by a Ukrainian drone in April, injuring at least 12 people. A video it posted on social media showed a Kenyan woman calling the attackers “barbarians” who “wanted to intimidate us.”

    “They did not succeed,” she said.

    Although one woman said she loved working at Alabuga because she was well-paid and enjoyed meeting new people and experiencing a different culture, most interviewed by AP disagreed about the size of the compensation and suggested that life there did not meet their expectations.

    The program initially promised recruits $700 a month, but later social media posts put it at “over $500.”

    The airframe assembly worker said the cost of their accommodation, airfare, medical care and Russian-language classes were deducted from her salary, and she struggled to pay for basics like bus fare with the remainder.

    The African women are “maltreated like donkeys, being slaved,” she said, indicating banking sanctions on Russia made it difficult to send money home. But another factory worker said she was able to send up to $150 a month to her family.

    Four of the women described long shifts of up to 12 hours, with haphazard days off. Still, two of these who said they worked in the kitchen added they were willing to tolerate the pay if they could support their families.

    The wages apparently are affecting morale, according to plant documents, with managers urging that the foreign workers be replaced with Russian-speaking staff because “candidates are refusing the low salary.”

    Russian and Central Asian students at Alabuga Polytechnic are allowed visits home, social media posts suggest. Independent Russian media reported that these vocational students who want to quit the program have been told they must repay tuition costs.

    AP contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry and the offices of Tatarstan Gov. Rustam Minnikhanov and Alabuga Special Economic Zone Director General Timur Shagivaleev for a response to the women’s complaints but received no reply.

    Human rights organizations contacted by AP said they were unaware of what was happening at the factory, although it sounded consistent with other actions by Russia. Human Rights Watch said Russia is actively recruiting foreigners from Africa and India to support its war in Ukraine by promising lucrative jobs without fully explaining the nature of the work.

    Russia’s actions “could potentially fulfill the criteria of trafficking if the recruitment is fraudulent and the purpose is exploitation,” said Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, noting that Moscow is a party to the U.N. Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime.

    The AP contacted governments of 22 countries whose citizens Alabuga said it had recruited for the program. Most didn’t answer or said they would look into it.

    Betty Amongi, Uganda’s Minister for Gender, Labour and Social Development, told AP that her ministry raised concerns with its embassy in Moscow about the Alabuga recruiting effort, particularly over the age of the women, because “female migrant workers are the most vulnerable category.”

    The ministry said it wanted to ensure the women “do not end up in exploitative employment,” and needed to know who would be responsible for the welfare of the Ugandan women while in Russia. Alabuga’s Facebook page said 46 Ugandan women were at the complex, although Amongi had said there were none.

    Bolstered by the foreign recruits, Russia has vastly increased the number of drones it can fire at Ukraine.

    Nearly 4,000 were launched at Ukraine from the start of the war in February 2022 through 2023, Albright’s organization said. In the first seven months of this year, Russia launched nearly twice that.

    Although the Alabuga plant’s production target is ahead of schedule, there are questions about the quality of the drones and whether manufacturing problems due to the unskilled labor force are causing malfunctions. Some experts also point to Russia’s switching to other materials from the original Iranian design as a sign of problems.

    An AP analysis of about 2,000 Shahed attacks documented by Ukraine’s military since July 29 shows that about 95% of the drones hit no discernible target. Instead, they fall into Ukraine’s rivers and fields, stray into NATO-member Latvia and come down in Russia or ally Belarus.

    Before July, about 14% of Shaheds hit their targets in Ukraine, according to data analyzed by Albright’s team.

    The large failure rate could be due to Ukraine’s improved air defenses, although Albright said it also could be because of the low-skilled workforce in which “poor craftsmanship is seeping in,” he said.

    Another factor could be because Russia is using a Shahed variant that doesn’t carry a warhead of 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of explosives. Moscow could be launching these dummy drones to overwhelm air defenses and force Ukraine to waste ammunition, allowing other UAVs to hit targets.

    The Alabuga Start recruiting drive relies on a robust social media campaign of slickly edited videos with upbeat music that show African women visiting Tatarstan’s cultural sites or playing sports.

    The videos show them working — smiling while cleaning floors, wearing hard hats while directing cranes, and donning protective equipment to apply paint or chemicals.

    One video depicts the Polytechnic school students in team-building exercises such as paintball matches, even showing the losing side — labeled as “fascists” — digging trenches or being shot with the recreational weapons at close range.

    “We are taught patriotism. This unites us. We are ready to repel any provocation,” one student says.

    The videos on Alabuga’s social media pages don’t mention the plant’s role at the heart of Russian drone production, but the Special Economic Zone is more open with Russian media.

    Konstantin Spiridonov, deputy director of a company that made drones for civilian use before the war, gave a video tour of an Alabuga assembly line in March to a Russian blogger. Pointing out young African women, he did not explicitly link the drones to the war but noted their production is now “very relevant” for Russia.

    Alabuga Start’s social media pages are filled with comments from Africans begging for work and saying they applied but have yet to receive an answer.

    The program was promoted by education ministries in Uganda and Ethiopia, as well as in African media that portrays it as a way to make money and learn new skills.

    Initially advertised as a work-study program, Alabuga Start in recent months is more direct about what it offers foreigners, insisting on newer posts that “is NOT an educational programme,” although one of them still shows young women in plaid school uniforms.

    When Sierra Leone Ambassador Mohamed Yongawo visited in May and met with five participants from his country, he appeared to believe it was a study program.

    “It would be great if we had 30 students from Sierra Leone studying at Alabuga,” he said afterward.

    Last month, the Alabuga Start social media site said it was “excited to announce that our audience has grown significantly!”

    That could be due to its hiring of influencers, including Bassie, a South African with almost 800,000 TikTok and Instagram followers. She did not respond to an AP request for comment.

    The program, she said, was an easy way to make money, encouraging followers to share her post with job-seeking friends so they could contact Alabuga.

    “Where they lack in labor,” she said, “that’s where you come in.”

    ___

    Associated Press writers Michael Biesecker in Washington and Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report.

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  • Russia downs over 100 Ukrainian drones in one of the largest barrages of the war

    Russia downs over 100 Ukrainian drones in one of the largest barrages of the war

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    KYIV, Ukraine — More than 100 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russia Sunday, officials said, sparking a wildfire and setting an apartment block alight in one of the largest barrages seen over Russian skies since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

    Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that it had shot down 125 drones overnight across seven regions. The southwestern region of Volgograd came under particularly heavy fire, with 67 Ukrainian drones reportedly downed by Russian air defenses.

    Seventeen drones were also seen over Russia’s Voronezh region, where falling debris damaged an apartment block and a private home, said Gov. Aleksandr Gusev. Images on social media showed flames rising from the windows of the top floor of a high-rise building. No casualties were reported.

    A further 18 drones were reported over Russia’s Rostov region, where falling debris sparked a wildfire, said Gov. Vasily Golubev.

    He said that the fire did not pose a threat to populated areas, but that emergency services were fighting to extinguish the blaze, which had engulfed 20 hectares (49.4 acres) of forest.

    Elsewhere, 16 civilians were injured in an overnight barrage on the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia after Ukrainian military leaders warned that Moscow could be preparing for a new military offensive in the country’s south.

    The city was targeted by Russian guide bombs in 10 separate attacks that damaged a high-rise building and several residential homes, regional Gov. Ivan Fedorov wrote on his official Telegram channel. More people could still be trapped beneath the rubble, he said.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also said that the Zaporizhzhia attack had damaged the city’s transport links. “Today, Russia struck Zaporizhzhia with aerial bombs. Ordinary residential buildings were damaged and the entrance of one building was destroyed. The city’s infrastructure and railway were also damaged,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X.

    The Ukrainian leader appeared Sunday at a memorial service to make the 83rd anniversary of the Babyn Yar massacre, one of the most infamous mass slaughters of World War II.

    Babyn Yar, a ravine in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, is where nearly 34,000 Jews were killed within 48 hours in 1941 when the city was under Nazi occupation.

    “Babyn Yar is vivid proof of the atrocities that regimes are capable of when led by leaders who rely on intimidation and violence. At any time, they are no different,” Zelenskyy said in a statement. “But the world’s response should be different. This is the lesson the world should have learned. We must guard humanity, life, and justice.”

    The Ukrainian military warned Saturday that Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in the wider Zaporizhzhia region. Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern military command, said that Russia was amassing personnel in this direction.

    Ukraine’s air force also reported that 22 Russian drones were launched over the country overnight. It said that 15 were shot down in Ukraine’s Sumy, Vinnytsia, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions, and that five more were destroyed using electronic defenses. The fate of the remaining two drones was not specified. ___

    Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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  • China, at UN, warns against ‘expansion of the battlefield’ in the Ukraine war

    China, at UN, warns against ‘expansion of the battlefield’ in the Ukraine war

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    NEW YORK — Three days before his communist government turns 75, China’s foreign minister warned fellow leaders Saturday against an “expansion of the battlefield” in Russia’s war with Ukraine and said the Beijing government remains committed to shuttle diplomacy and efforts to push the conflict toward its end.

    “The top priority is to commit to no expansion of the battlefield. … China is committed to playing a constructive role,” Wang Yi said. He warned against other nations “throwing oil on the fire or exploiting the situation for selfish gains,” a likely reference to the United States.

    Wang’s speech appeared to break no new ground, as is generally China’s recent practice at the U.N. General Assembly’s annual meeting of leaders. In fact, his boss, Chinese President Xi Jinping, has not participated in the leaders’ meeting since 2021 — and then only virtually, during the pandemic. Xi has not attended in person for several years.

    On Friday, on the assembly sidelines, China and Brazil sought to build enthusiasm for their peace plan for Ukraine. They said about a dozen countries signed a communique that says they “note” the six-point plan. The plan calls for a peace conference with both Ukraine and Russia and no expansion of the battlefield, among other provisions.

    Ukrainian officials have given the proposal a cold shoulder, but the countries that signed the communique are forming a group of “friends for peace” for their U.N. ambassadors to keep the conversation going among themselves. Ranging from Algeria to Zambia, the members are largely African or Latin American countries. Wang made sure to note Friday that the group doesn’t decree individual countries’ policies.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a news conference Saturday that Russia was ready to provide assistance and advice to the group, adding that “it’s important for their proposals to be underpinned by the realities and not just be taken from some abstract conversations.”

    China has been an ally of Russia, a nation that has been accused of violating the U.N. Charter by Secretary-General António Guterres, the U.S. and many world nations. Moscow insists its so-called “special military operation” is in self-defense, which is allowed in the U.N. Charter.

    China’s continuing and vehement insistence on respect for other nations’ sovereignty is not only a cornerstone of its foreign policy but a foundational ethos for the government of a nation that has traditionally struggled to maintain control at its edges — from Xinjiang and Tibet in the far west to Hong Kong and Taiwan off its east coast.

    China’s current government was established on Oct. 1, 1949, when it was proclaimed by communist revolutionary-turned-leader Mao Zedong in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square after a civil war with Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist government. The Nationalists began ruling Taiwan as a self-governed island, and that practice continues today — and is something that China rejects and insists is only a temporary situation for territory it considers sovereign.

    “There is no such thing as two Chinas or one China-one Taiwan. On this matter there is no gray zone,” Wang said. “Taiwan will eventually return to the embrace of the motherland. This is the overwhelming trend of history that no one can stop.”

    The Republic of China — the government in Taiwan established by Chiang Kai-shek — was a member of the United Nations until 1971, when the U.N. recognized the Beijing government. Since then, Beijing has worked to isolate Taiwan by rewarding nations that recognize it diplomatically and, sometimes, punishing those who do not. At every General Assembly high-level meeting, the leaders of scattered Taiwan-supporting nations — usually small ones — lament at the rostrum about the island’s government being shunned by the international community.

    Wang also weighed in with China’s positions on increasing Mideast tensions and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The latter has always been a key strategic priority for Beijing.

    THE MIDEAST: Saying that “the question of Palestine is the biggest wound in human conscience,” Wang reiterated that China supports Palestinian statehood and full U.N. membership and insisted that a two-state solution is “the fundamental way out.” He did not mention Israel by name or directly reference the war that began when Hamas fighters streamed across the Gaza border into Israel, killing hundreds and taking dozens hostage.

    THE KOREAN PENINSULA: As is China’s policy, Wang expressed support for a transition “from the armistice to a peace mechanism.” The two Koreas technically remain in a state of war since a 1950-53 conflict separated the peninsula into north and south. China has been a longtime backer of North Korea while the United States is a close ally of the South. He offered a veiled warning about others trying to pull strings in East Asia: “We are firmly against the meddling of countries outside the region.”

    The Korean Peninsula broke into the U.S.-supported, capitalistic South Korea and the Soviet-backed, socialist North Korea after its liberation from Japan’s 35-year colonial rule at the end of the World War II in 1945. The two Koreas have the world’s most heavily fortified border.

    HUMAN RIGHTS: Wang repeated China’s usual talking points, saying that “no country should infringe on another’s internal affairs in the name of human rights” and insisting that China had chosen its own way, which is just as legitimate as others’.

    “We have found a path of human rights development that suits China’s national condition,” Wang said.

    Other nations and international rights groups have long condemned Beijing’s treatment of Tibetans, ethnic Uyghurs in the far-west region of Xinjiang and — more recently — activists in the “special administrative region” of Hong Kong.

    ___

    Associated Press writers Jennifer Peltz and Edith M. Lederer contributed to this report. See more of AP’s coverage of the U.N. General Assembly at https://apnews.com/hub/united-nations

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  • Russia’s adaptability to US sanctions stymied their effectiveness, economists say

    Russia’s adaptability to US sanctions stymied their effectiveness, economists say

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    Waves of sanctions imposed by the Biden administration after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine haven’t inflicted the devastating blow to Moscow’s economy that some had expected. In a new report, two researchers are offering reasons why.Oleg Itskhoki of Harvard University and Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argue that the sanctions should have been imposed more forcefully immediately after the invasion rather than in a piecemeal manner.Related video above: Russia can only be forced into peace, Zelensky says to the United Nations Security Council”In retrospect, it is evident that there was no reason not to have imposed all possible decisive measures against Russia from the outset once Russia launched the full scale invasion in February 2022,” the authors state in the paper. Still, “the critical takeaway is that sanctions are not a silver bullet,” Ribakova said on a call with reporters this week, to preview the study.The researchers say Russia was able to brace for the financial penalties because of the lessons learned from sanctions imposed in 2014 after it invaded Crimea. Also, the impact was weakened by the failure to get more countries to participate in sanctions, with economic powers like China and India not included. The report says that “while the count of sanctions is high, the tangible impact on Russia’s economy is less clear,” and “global cooperation is indispensable.”The question of what makes sanctions effective or not is important beyond the Russia-Ukraine war. Sanctions have become critical tools for the United States and other Western nations to pressure adversaries to reverse actions and change policies while stopping short of direct military conflict.The limited impact of sanctions on Russia has been clear for some time. But the report provides a more detailed picture of how Russia adapted to the sanctions and what it could mean for U.S. sanctions’ effectiveness in the future. The paper will be presented at the Brookings Institution next week. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has sanctioned more than 4,000 people and businesses, including 80% of Russia’s banking sector by assets.The Biden administration acknowledges that sanctions alone cannot stop Russia’s invasion — it has also sent roughly $56 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since the 2022 invasion. And many policy experts say the sanctions are not strong enough, as evidenced by the growth of the Russian economy. U.S. officials have said Russia has turned to China for machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in the war.A Treasury representative pointed to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s remarks in July during the Group of 20 finance ministers meetings, where she called actions against Russia “unprecedented.””We continue cracking down on Russian sanctions evasion and have strengthened and expanded our ability to target foreign financial institutions and anyone else around the world supporting Russia’s war machine,” she said. Still, Russia has been able to evade a $60 price cap on its oil exports imposed by the U.S. and the other Group of Seven democracies supporting Ukraine. The cap is enforced by barring Western insurers and shipping companies from handling oil above the cap. Russia has been able to dodge the cap by assembling its own fleet of aging, used tankers that do not use Western services and transport 90% of its oil.The U.S. pushed for the price cap as a way of cutting into Moscow’s oil profits without knocking large amounts of Russian oil off the global market and pushing up oil prices, gasoline prices and inflation. Similar concerns kept the European Union from imposing a boycott on most Russian oil for almost a year after Russia invaded Ukraine.G-7 leaders have agreed to engineer a $50 billion loan to help Ukraine, paid for by the interest earned on profits from Russia’s frozen central bank assets sitting mostly in Europe as collateral. However, the allies have not agreed on how to structure the loan. __Associated Press reporter Dave McHugh in Frankfurt contributed to this report.

    Waves of sanctions imposed by the Biden administration after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine haven’t inflicted the devastating blow to Moscow’s economy that some had expected. In a new report, two researchers are offering reasons why.

    Oleg Itskhoki of Harvard University and Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argue that the sanctions should have been imposed more forcefully immediately after the invasion rather than in a piecemeal manner.

    Related video above: Russia can only be forced into peace, Zelensky says to the United Nations Security Council

    “In retrospect, it is evident that there was no reason not to have imposed all possible decisive measures against Russia from the outset once Russia launched the full scale invasion in February 2022,” the authors state in the paper. Still, “the critical takeaway is that sanctions are not a silver bullet,” Ribakova said on a call with reporters this week, to preview the study.

    The researchers say Russia was able to brace for the financial penalties because of the lessons learned from sanctions imposed in 2014 after it invaded Crimea. Also, the impact was weakened by the failure to get more countries to participate in sanctions, with economic powers like China and India not included.

    The report says that “while the count of sanctions is high, the tangible impact on Russia’s economy is less clear,” and “global cooperation is indispensable.”

    The question of what makes sanctions effective or not is important beyond the Russia-Ukraine war. Sanctions have become critical tools for the United States and other Western nations to pressure adversaries to reverse actions and change policies while stopping short of direct military conflict.

    The limited impact of sanctions on Russia has been clear for some time. But the report provides a more detailed picture of how Russia adapted to the sanctions and what it could mean for U.S. sanctions’ effectiveness in the future.

    The paper will be presented at the Brookings Institution next week.

    Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has sanctioned more than 4,000 people and businesses, including 80% of Russia’s banking sector by assets.

    The Biden administration acknowledges that sanctions alone cannot stop Russia’s invasion — it has also sent roughly $56 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since the 2022 invasion. And many policy experts say the sanctions are not strong enough, as evidenced by the growth of the Russian economy. U.S. officials have said Russia has turned to China for machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in the war.

    A Treasury representative pointed to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s remarks in July during the Group of 20 finance ministers meetings, where she called actions against Russia “unprecedented.”

    “We continue cracking down on Russian sanctions evasion and have strengthened and expanded our ability to target foreign financial institutions and anyone else around the world supporting Russia’s war machine,” she said.

    Still, Russia has been able to evade a $60 price cap on its oil exports imposed by the U.S. and the other Group of Seven democracies supporting Ukraine. The cap is enforced by barring Western insurers and shipping companies from handling oil above the cap. Russia has been able to dodge the cap by assembling its own fleet of aging, used tankers that do not use Western services and transport 90% of its oil.

    The U.S. pushed for the price cap as a way of cutting into Moscow’s oil profits without knocking large amounts of Russian oil off the global market and pushing up oil prices, gasoline prices and inflation. Similar concerns kept the European Union from imposing a boycott on most Russian oil for almost a year after Russia invaded Ukraine.

    G-7 leaders have agreed to engineer a $50 billion loan to help Ukraine, paid for by the interest earned on profits from Russia’s frozen central bank assets sitting mostly in Europe as collateral. However, the allies have not agreed on how to structure the loan.

    __

    Associated Press reporter Dave McHugh in Frankfurt contributed to this report.

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  • 21 wounded in Russian strikes that hit apartment buildings in Ukrainian city of Kharkiv

    21 wounded in Russian strikes that hit apartment buildings in Ukrainian city of Kharkiv

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    KYIV, Ukraine — Russia launched new strikes in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv that hit high-rise apartment buildings, leaving at least 21 wounded in a second consecutive nighttime attack, authorities said.

    The bombs fell Saturday night on the district of Shevchenkivsky, north of the center of Kharkiv, which is the second-largest Ukrainian city, local Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said. Residential buildings sustained varying degrees of damage, including 16- and nine-story buildings, he added. Kharkiv’s city council said that 18 buildings were damaged.

    The wounded included an 8-year-old child, according to Syniehubov and Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov. Terekhov said that 60 residents were evacuated from one of the buildings, a high-rise that was hit directly.

    Kharkiv has been a frequent target of Russian attacks since Moscow launched its all-out invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February 2022. On late Friday, 15 people, including children ages 10 and 12, were wounded when Russian airstrikes hit three Kharkiv neighborhoods, Terekhov said.

    Ukrainian officials said that KAB-type aerial glide bombs — a retrofitted Soviet weapon that has for months laid waste to eastern Ukraine — were used in both attacks.

    President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strike and urged Kyiv’s Western allies to send more weapons to help it “protect lives and ensure safety.”

    “Ukraine needs full long-range capabilities, and we are working to convince our partners of this,” Zelenskyy said on X, as he prepared to kick off a busy week in the United States shoring up support for Kyiv in the war.

    And Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Sunday that Kyiv was in talks with partners in Europe to secure Swedish-made Gripen and European Eurofighter Typhoon jets. Umerov said that commitments were already in place for deliveries of U.S.-made F-16s and French Mirages.

    Russia also launched 80 Shahed drones and two missiles at Ukraine overnight into Sunday, the Ukrainian air force said. Ukrainian defenses shot down 71 drones, and another six were lost on location because of electronic warfare countermeasures, the statement said.

    Farther south, a 12-year-old girl and a woman died after a Russian drone struck a passenger car in the city of Nikopol, local Gov. Serhii Lysak reported. Two others, including a 4-year-old child, suffered wounds.

    In the eastern Donetsk region, a Russian airstrike on Sunday morning struck homes in the city of Sloviansk, trapping a woman under rubble and wounding two of her neighbors, regional prosecutors reported.

    In the same province, two miners died and one other person was injured late Saturday after Russian forces shelled a mine west of the city of Pokrovsk, local Gov. Vadym Filashkin and Ukraine’s Energy Ministry reported.

    Pokrovsk and Sloviansk have both been key targets for Russian forces as they continue their grinding push westwards aimed at capturing the entirety of Ukraine’s industrial east.

    In southern Ukraine, a Russian drone strike on Sunday morning wounded two civilians in the city of Kherson, regional authorities said. Hours later, police reported that Russian attacks wounded at least four more people elsewhere in the province.

    Other Russian drone attacks Sunday damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s central Poltava region and the northern city of Shostka, officials reported.

    Shostka lies in the Sumy region, across the border from Russia’s Kursk province — the target of a startling Ukrainian military incursion launched last month. Weeks into the incursion, Zelenskyy said that the aim is to create a buffer zone to prevent further Russian cross-border strikes that have for months wreaked havoc in Sumy.

    Around 10,000 residents have left the nearby town of Hlukhiv because of intensified Russian shelling, around a third of its prewar population, the local military administration said Sunday.

    That includes almost 70% of the town’s children, following the regional government’s calls to evacuate parts of the Sumy region nearest the Russian border. Hlukhiv lies less than 15 kilometers (9 miles) from Russian territory, and about 40 kilometers (25 miles) southeast of Shostka.

    Also on Sunday, a firefighter was killed and two others were injured by a Ukrainian drone in the Russia-occupied Luhansk province in eastern Ukraine, the Russian Emergencies Ministry said.

    In Russia proper, in the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine, Ukrainian shelling wounded at least 12 people including a village official and members of a volunteer self-defense force, according to regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov.

    Several Russian regions, including Belgorod in the south, set up so-called territorial defense units to counter-sabotage activity after Russian troops moved into Ukraine in February 2022.

    ___

    Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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  • FACT FOCUS: A look at claims made by Trump at news conference

    FACT FOCUS: A look at claims made by Trump at news conference

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    In his first news conference since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for president, former President Donald Trump said he would debate her on Sept. 10 and pushed for two more debates. The Republican presidential nominee spoke for more than an hour, discussing a number of issues facing the country and then taking questions from reporters. He made a number of false and misleading claims. Many of them have been made before.

    Here’s a look at some of those claims.

    CROWD SIZES

    CLAIM: “The biggest crowd I’ve ever spoken — I’ve spoken to the biggest crowds. Nobody’s spoken to crowds bigger than me. If you look at Martin Luther King when he did his speech, his great speech, and you look at ours, same real estate, same everything, same number of people, if not we had more. And they said he had a million people, but I had 25,000 people.”

    THE FACTS: Trump was comparing the crowd at his speech in front of the White House on Jan. 6, 2021, to the crowd that attended Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous “I Have a Dream” speech on Aug. 28, 1963, at the Lincoln Memorial.

    But far more people are estimated to have been at the latter than the former.

    Approximately 250,000 people attended the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom, at which King gave his speech, according to the National Park Service. The Associated Press reported in 2021 that there were at least 10,000 people at Trump’s address.

    Moreover, Trump and King did not speak in the same location. King spoke from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, which looks east toward the Washington Monument. Trump spoke at the Ellipse, a grassy area just south of the White House.

    ___

    JAN. 6

    CLAIM: “Nobody was killed on Jan. 6.”

    THE FACTS: That’s false. Five people died in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot and its immediate aftermath. Pro-Trump rioters breached the U.S. Capitol that day amid Congress’ effort to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory.

    Among the deceased are Ashli Babbitt, a Trump supporter shot and killed by police, and Brian Sicknick, a police officer who died the day after battling the mob. Four additional officers who responded to the riot killed themselves in the following weeks and months.

    Babbitt, a 35-year-old Air Force veteran from San Diego, was shot and killed by a police officer as she climbed through a broken part of a Capitol door during the violent riot. Trump has often cited Babbitt’s death while lamenting the treatment of those who attended a rally outside the White House that day and then marched to the Capitol, many of whom fought with police.

    ___

    DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

    CLAIM: “The presidency was taken away from Joe Biden, and I’m no Biden fan, but I tell you what, from a constitutional standpoint, from any standpoint you look at, they took the presidency away.”

    THE FACTS: There is nothing in the Constitution that prevents the Democratic Party from making Vice President Kamala Harris its nominee. That process is determined by the Democratic National Committee.

    Harris officially claimed the nomination Monday following a five-day online voting process, receiving 4,563 delegate votes out of 4,615 cast, or about 99% of participating delegates. A total of 52 delegates in 18 states cast their votes for “present,” the only other option on the ballot.

    The vice president was the only candidate eligible to receive votes after no other candidate qualified by the party’s deadline following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race on July 21.

    What to know about the 2024 Election

    ___

    THE ECONOMY

    CLAIM: Suggesting things would be different if he had been in office rather than Biden: “You wouldn’t have had inflation. You wouldn’t have had any inflation because inflation was caused by their bad energy problems. Now they’ve gone back to the Trump thing because they need the votes. They’re drilling now because they had to go back because gasoline was going up to 7, 8, 9 dollars a barrel.”

    THE FACTS: There would have been at least some inflation if Trump had been reelected in 2020 because many of the factors causing inflation were outside a president’s control. Prices spiked in 2021 after cooped-up Americans ramped up their spending on goods such as exercise bikes and home office furniture, overwhelming disrupted supply chains. U.S. auto companies, for example, couldn’t get enough semiconductors and had to sharply reduce production, causing new and used car prices to shoot higher. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022 also sent gas and food prices soaring around the world, as Ukraine’s wheat exports were disrupted and many nations boycotted Russian oil and gas.

    Still, under Biden, U.S. oil production reached a worldwide record level earlier this year.

    Many economists, including some Democrats, say Biden’s $1.9 trillion financial support package, approved in March 2021, which provided a $1,400 stimulus check to most Americans, helped fuel inflation by ramping up demand. But it didn’t cause inflation all by itself. And Trump supported $2,000 stimulus checks in December 2020, rather than the $600 checks included in a package he signed into law in December 2020.

    Prices still spiked in countries with different policies than Biden’s, such as France, Germany and the U.K., though mostly because of the sharp increase in energy costs stemming from Russia’s invasion.

    ___

    IMMIGRATION

    CLAIM: “Twenty million people came over the border during the Biden-Harris administration — 20 million people — and it could be very much higher than that. Nobody really knows.”

    THE FACTS: Trump’s 20 million figure is unsubstantiated at best, and he didn’t provide sources.

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports 7.1 million arrests for illegal crossings from Mexico from January 2021 through June 2024. That’s arrests, not people. Under pandemic-era asylum restrictions, many people crossed more than once until they succeeded because there were no legal consequences for getting turned back to Mexico. So the number of people is lower than the number of arrests.

    In addition, CBP says it stopped migrants 1.1 million times at official land crossings with Mexico from January 2021 through June 2024, largely under an online appointment system to claim asylum called CBP One.

    U.S. authorities also admitted nearly 500,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela under presidential authority if they had financial sponsors and arrived at an airport.

    All told, that’s nearly 8.7 million encounters. Again, the number of people is lower due to multiple encounters for some.

    There are an unknown number of people who eluded capture, known as “got-aways” in Border Patrol parlance. The Border Patrol estimates how many but doesn’t publish that number.

    ___

    CLAIM: Vice President Kamala Harris “was the border czar 100% and all of a sudden for the last few weeks she’s not the border czar anymore.”

    THE FACTS: Harris was appointed to address “root causes” of migration in Central America. That migration manifests itself in illegal crossings to the U.S., but she was not assigned to the border.

    ___

    NEW YORK CASES

    CLAIM: “The New York cases are totally controlled out of the Department of Justice.”

    THE FACTS: Trump was referring to two cases brought against him in New York — one civil and the other criminal.

    Neither has anything to do with the U.S. Department of Justice.

    The civil case was initiated by a lawsuit from New York Attorney General Letitia James. In that case, Trump was ordered in February to pay a $454 million penalty for lying about his wealth for years as he built the real estate empire that vaulted him to stardom and the White House.

    Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a state-level prosecutor, brought the criminal case. In May, a jury found Trump guilty on 34 felony counts in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor who said the two had sex.

    ___ Associated Press writers Melissa Goldin and Elliot Spagat and economics writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this article. ___

    Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.

    __

    An earlier version of this story mixed up “latter” and “former” in the third paragraph. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech on Aug. 28, 1963, drew a far larger crowd than Donald Trump’s speech near the White House on Jan. 6, 2021.

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  • Faked video targeting France and UAE likely Russian despite Moscow’s links to Gulf Arab states

    Faked video targeting France and UAE likely Russian despite Moscow’s links to Gulf Arab states

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — A fake video that ricocheted across the internet claiming tensions between France and the United Arab Emirates after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s detention in Paris likely came from Russia, an analysis by The Associated Press shows, despite Moscow’s efforts to maintain crucial ties to the UAE.

    It remains unclear why Russian operatives would choose to publish such a video falsely claiming the Emirates halted a French arms sale, which appears to be the first noticeable effort by Moscow to target the UAE with a disinformation campaign. The Emirates remains one of the few locations to still have direct flights to Moscow, while Russian money has flooded into Dubai’s booming real estate market since President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

    France, however, remains one of the key backers of Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the war grinds on. Meanwhile, Russia likely remains highly interested in what happens to Telegram, an app believed to be used widely by its military in the war and one that’s also been used by activists in the past. And the move comes amid concerns in the United States over Russia, Iran and China interfering in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

    Russia’s Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

    The fake video began circulating online Aug. 27, bearing the logos of the Qatar-based satellite news network Al Jazeera and attempting to copy the channel’s style. It falsely claimed the Emirati government had halted a previously announced purchase of 80 Rafale fighter jets from France worth 16 billion euros ($18 billion) at the time, the largest-ever French weapons contract for export. It also sought to link Dubai’s ruler and his crown prince son to the decision, as Durov holds an Emirati passport and has lived in Dubai.

    Such a decision, however, was never made. The UAE and France maintain close relations, with the French military operating a naval base in the country. French warplanes and personnel also are stationed in a major facility outside the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi.

    Reached for comment, Al Jazeera told the AP that the footage was “fake and we refute this attribution to the media network.” The network never aired any such claim when reporting on Durov’s detention as well, according to an AP check. On the social platform X, a note later appended by the company to some posts with the video identified it as “manipulated media.”

    The video also appeared to seek to exploit the low-level suspicion still gripping the Gulf Arab states following the yearslong Qatar diplomatic crisis by falsely attributing it to the news network. State-funded Al Jazeera has drawn criticism in the past from Gulf nations over its coverage of the 2011 Arab Spring, from the United States for airing videos from al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden and most recently in Israel, where authorities closed its operation over its coverage of the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

    The social media account that first spread the video did not respond to questions from the AP and later deleted its post. That account linked to another on the Telegram message app that repeatedly shared graphic images of dead Ukrainian soldiers and pro-Russian messages.

    Such accounts have proliferated since the war began and bear the hallmark of past Russian disinformation campaigns.

    In Ukraine, the Center for Countering Disinformation in Kyiv, a government project there focused on countering such Russian campaigns, told the AP that the account engaged in “systematic cross-quoting and reposting of content” associated with Russian state media and its government.

    That indicates the account “is aimed at an international audience for the purpose of informational influence,” the center said. It “probably belongs to the Russian network of subversive information activities abroad.”

    Other experts assessed the video to be likely Russian disinformation.

    The Emirati government declined to comment. The French Embassy in Abu Dhabi did not respond to AP’s request to comment.

    Durov is now free on 5 million euros bail after being questioned by French authorities and preliminarily charged for allegedly allowing Telegram to be used for criminal activity. He has disputed the charges and promised to step up efforts to fight criminality on the messaging app.

    Despite the video being flagged as fake online, captions and versions of the video continue to circulate, showing the challenge of trying to refute such messages. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov just attended a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Saudi Arabia attended by the UAE. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have mediated prisoner exchanges amid the war.

    Given those close ties, the UAE likely will or has reached out quietly to Moscow over the video, said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a research fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute who has long studied the region.

    “It may be that this is a part of the Russian playbook which is to seek to create wedges between political and security partners, in a bid to create divisions and sow uncertainty,” Ulrichsen said.

    “The importance of the UAE to Russia post-2022 does make it unusual, but it may be that the campaign is aimed primarily at France and that any impact on the UAE’s image and reputation is a secondary issue as far as those behind the video are concerned.”

    ___

    Associated Press writer Volodymr Yurchuk in Kyiv, Ukraine, contributed to this report.

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  • Iranian missiles in Russia are a legitimate target, a Ukrainian official says

    Iranian missiles in Russia are a legitimate target, a Ukrainian official says

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    KYIV, Ukraine — A senior Ukrainian official said Monday Western partner countries must allow Ukraine to use weapons they have supplied to strike military warehouses inside Russia because of strong suspicions Iran has provided ballistic missiles for the Kremlin’s war effort.

    The United States has told allies it believes Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine, two people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press at the weekend.

    Western countries supporting Ukraine in the war have hesitated to let its military strike targets on Russian soil, fearing they could be sucked into Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II, but the head of the Ukrainian presidential office said “protection is not escalation.”

    “In response to the supply of ballistic missiles to Russia, Ukraine must be allowed to destroy warehouses storing these missiles with Western weapons in order to avoid terror,” Andrii Yermak said on his Telegram channel. He did not specify which country was supplying the missiles.

    Russia has already subjected Ukraine to repeated and devastating long-range missile and drone bombardments that have killed more than 10,000 civilians since the start of the war in February 2022, according to a United Nations tally. The barrages have also crippled electricity production.

    Ukraine has refused to cave in, however, and recently launched a bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk region even while toiling to hold back a Russian push in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

    Russia has been receiving Iranian-made Shahed drones since 2022. The possible shipment of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia as well has alarmed Western governments as President Vladimir Putin reaches out to other countries to provide him with support.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday said of the Iranian missile reports that “this kind of information is not true every time.”

    He added, however: “Iran is our important partner. We are developing our trade and economic relations. We are developing our cooperation and dialogue in all possible areas, including the most sensitive ones, and will continue to do so in the interests of the peoples of our two countries.”

    In Iran, foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani denied Tehran armed Russia with missiles.

    “We strongly reject allegations about Iran’s role in sending weapons to one side of the war and we assess these allegations as politically motivated by some parties,” Kanaani said.

    The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on Saturday expressed “deep concern” about that possibility.

    “Iran must completely and definitively stop providing weapons to Russia in order to prove with actions, not words, the sincerity of its political leadership’s statements about non-involvement in fueling the Russian war machine of death,” a statement said.

    CIA Director William Burns warned in London at the weekend of the growing and “troubling” defense relationship involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Those ties, he said, threaten both Ukraine and Western allies in the Middle East.

    China’s Defense Ministry on Monday announced joint naval and air drills with Russia starting this month.

    While China has not directly provided Russia with arms, it has become a vital economic lifeline as a leading customer for Russian oil and gas. It has also supplied electronics and other items with both civilian and military uses.

    ___

    Jon Gambrell contributed from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

    ___

    Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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  • Poland’s cybersecurity experts foil Russian and Belarussian attacks

    Poland’s cybersecurity experts foil Russian and Belarussian attacks

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    WARSAW, Poland — Poland’s security officials said Monday they have foiled cyberattacks and online blackmail attempts by groups acting for Russian and Belarusian services.

    Poland has registered up to 1,000 online attacks daily targeting government institutions and agencies, officials said, linking them to the country’s support for neighboring Ukraine in its 2 1/2-year war against Russia’s invasion.

    The group that was broken up was seeking access to information in state and individual companies with the goal of blackmailing them, said Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski.

    He said that in the first half of 2024, more than 400,000 attempted or successful cyberattacks were recorded, compared to 370,000 in all of last year.

    The government plans new legislation to increase Poland’s cybersecurity, Gawkowski said. The government would like internet operators to store data on servers in Poland, not abroad, to ensure better internal protection and oversight by national authorities.

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  • US, UK spy chiefs praise Ukraine’s ‘audacious’ Russia incursion

    US, UK spy chiefs praise Ukraine’s ‘audacious’ Russia incursion

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    LONDON — The heads of the British and American foreign intelligence agencies said Saturday that Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia is a significant achievement that could change the narrative of the grinding 2 1/2-year war, as they urged Kyiv’s allies not to be held back by Russian threats of escalation.

    Richard Moore, the head of MI6, said Kyiv’s surprise August offensive to seize territory in Russia’s Kursk region was “typically audacious and bold on the part of the Ukrainians, to try and change the game.” He said the offensive — which Ukraine said has captured about 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) of Russian territory — had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians.”

    Speaking alongside Moore at an unprecedented joint public event in London, CIA Director William Burns said the offensive was a “significant tactical achievement” that had exposed vulnerabilities in the Russian military.

    It has yet to be seen whether Ukraine can turn the gains into a long-term advantage. So far the offensive has not drawn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s focus away from eastern Ukraine, where his forces are closing in on the strategically situated city of Pokrovsk.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly pressed allies to let Kyiv use Western-supplied missiles to strike deep inside Russia and hit sites from which Moscow launches aerial attacks. While some countries, including Britain, are thought to tacitly support the idea, others including Germany and the U.S. are reluctant.

    U.S. President Joe Biden has allowed Ukraine to fire U.S.-provided missiles into Russia in self-defense, but the distance has been largely limited to cross-border targets deemed a direct threat, out of concerns about further escalating the conflict.

    Burns said the West should be “mindful” of the escalation risk but not be “unnecessarily intimidated” by Russian saber-rattling, revealing that there was a moment in late 2022 when there was a “genuine risk of the use of tactical nuclear weapons” by Moscow.

    Burns also warned of the growing and “troubling” defense relationship between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea that he said threatens both Ukraine and Western allies in the Middle East. North Korea has sent ammunition and missiles to Russia to use against Ukraine, while Iran supplies Moscow with attack drones.

    Burns said the CIA had yet to see evidence of China sending weapons to Russia, “but we see lot of things short of that.” And he warned Iran against supplying ballistic missiles to Moscow, saying “it would be a dramatic escalation” of the relationship.

    Ahead of their joint appearance at the FT Weekend Festival at London’s Kenwood House, the two spymasters wrote an opinion piece for the Financial Times, calling for a cease-fire in Israel’s war against Hamas and saying their agencies had “exploited our intelligence channels to push hard for restraint and de-escalation.”

    Burns has been heavily involved in efforts to broker an end to the fighting, traveling to Egypt in August for high-level talks aimed at bringing about a hostage deal and at least a temporary halt to the conflict.

    So far there has been no agreement, though United States officials insist a deal is close. Biden said recently that “just a couple more issues” remain unresolved. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has said reports of a breakthrough are “exactly inaccurate.”

    “I cannot tell you how close we are right now,” Burns told the London audience. He said negotiators are working on new, detailed proposals that would be presented within several days.

    Burns said that while 90% of the text has been agreed between the warring sides, “the last 10% is the last 10% for a reason, because it’s the hardest part to do.”

    Burns said ending the conflict would require “some hard choices and some difficult compromises” from both Israel and Hamas.

    The U.S. and the United Kingdom are both staunch allies of Israel, though London diverged from Washington on Monday by suspending some arms exports to Israel because of the risk they could be used to break international law.

    The intelligence chiefs’ speech came ahead of a busy week of trans-Atlantic diplomacy that includes a meeting in Washington between Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The White House said the talks would touch on Ukraine, Gaza and other issues.

    In their article, Burns and Moore stressed the strength of the trans-Atlantic relationship in the face of “an unprecedented array of threats,” including an assertive Russia, an ever-more powerful China and the constant drumbeat of international terrorism — all complicated by rapid technological change.

    They highlighted Russia’s “reckless campaign of sabotage” across Europe and the “cynical use of technology to spread lies and disinformation designed to drive wedges between us.”

    U.S. officials have long accused Moscow of meddling in American elections, and this week the Biden administration seized Kremlin-run websites and charged employees of Russian broadcaster RT with covertly funding social media campaigns to pump out pro-Kremlin messages and sow discord around November’s presidential contest.

    Russia has also been linked by Western officials to several planned attacks in Europe, including an alleged plot to burn down Ukrainian-owned businesses in London.

    Moore said Russia’s spies were acting in an increasingly desperate and reckless way.

    The “Russian intelligence service has gone a bit feral,” he said.

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  • Russia says it downed over 150 drones in one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks of the war

    Russia says it downed over 150 drones in one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks of the war

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    Russian air defenses intercepted and destroyed 158 Ukrainian drones overnight, including two over Moscow and nine over the surrounding region, the Defense Ministry said Sunday.

    Forty-six of the drones were over the Kursk region, where Ukraine has sent its forces in recent weeks in the largest incursion on Russian soil since World War II. A further 34 were shot over the Bryansk region, 28 over the Voronezh region, and 14 over the Belgorod region — all of which border Ukraine.

    Drones were also shot down deeper into Russia, including one each in the Tver region, northwest of Moscow, and the Ivanovo region, northeast of the Russian capital. Russia’s Defense Ministry said drones were intercepted over 15 regions, while one other governor said a drone was shot down over his region, too.

    Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said that falling debris from one of the two drones shot down over the city caused a fire at an oil refinery.

    Ukrainian drone strikes have brought the fight far from the front line into the heart of Russia. Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has stepped up aerial assaults on Russian soil, targeting refineries and oil terminals to slow down the Kremlin’s assault.

    Also in Russia, regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said nine people were wounded in Ukrainian aerial missile attacks in the Russian border region of Belgorod on Sunday. These included eight in the regional capital, also called Belgorod.

    Meanwhile, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Sunday it had taken control of the towns of Pivnichne and Vyimka, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The Associated Press could not independently verify the claim.

    Russian forces have been driving deeper into the partly occupied eastern region, the total capture of which is one of the Kremlin’s primary ambitions. Russia’s army is closing in on Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub for the Ukrainian defense in the area.

    At least three people were killed and nine wounded on Sunday in Russian shelling in the town of Kurakhove, some 20 miles (33 kilometers) south of Pokrovsk, Donetsk regional Gov. Vadym Filashkin said.

    In Ukraine overnight, eight drones were shot down out of 11 launched by Russia, according to the Ukrainian air force.

    One person was killed and four wounded in shelling overnight in the Sumy region, local officials said, while Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said five people were wounded in his region. On Sunday, 41 more were wounded when Russia shelled the regional capital, also called Kharkiv, Syniehubov said.

    Syniehubov said a shopping center, a sports facility and residential buildings were among those damaged in Sunday’s attack.

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    Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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