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  • Analysis: Putin’s nuclear treaty move raises stakes over China’s growing arsenal

    Analysis: Putin’s nuclear treaty move raises stakes over China’s growing arsenal

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    • Efforts to nudge China to nuclear talks now harder -analysts
    • China warhead stocks rise but still far below U.S., Russia
    • Long term ‘no first use’ policy in question amid build-up

    HONG KONG, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Russia’s suspension of its last remaining nuclear weapons treaty with the United States may have dashed any hopes of dragging China to the table to start talking about its own rapidly accelerating nuclear arms programmes.

    Regional diplomats and security analysts had held out the prospect of China somehow being convinced to join U.S.-Russian talks on extending the New START arms control treaty ahead of its expiry in 2026 as a way of alleviating growing fears over Beijing’s rapid military modernisation.

    China’s nuclear arsenal sits at the core of those concerns as it grows in size and sophistication – an expansion that the United States recently noted is now gathering pace.

    The Pentagon’s annual China report released last November noted that Beijing appeared to accelerate its expansion in 2021 and now has more than 400 operational nuclear warheads – a figure still far below U.S. and Russian arsenals both deployed and in reserve.

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    By 2035 – when the ruling Communist Party’s leadership wants its military to be fully modernised – China will likely possess a 1,500 nuclear warhead stockpile and an advanced array of missiles, the Pentagon says.

    “Compared to traditional Russian-U.S. exchanges, China is a black box – but one getting bigger every year,” an Asian security diplomat said on Wednesday.

    “Putin’s suspension may have set us further back in terms of getting China to step up to the transparency table. There is so much we need to know about its policies and intentions.”

    In a speech ahead of the first anniversary on Friday of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow was suspending a treaty signed in 2010 that caps at 1,550 the number of strategic nuclear warheads the United States and Russia can each deploy while providing for mutual inspections.

    Analysts said the move could imperil the delicate calculus that underpins mutual deterrence between the two countries, long the largest nuclear powers by far, and spark an arms race among other nuclear states.

    Tong Zhao, a U.S.-based nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he believed Putin’s move limits the prospects of U.S.-China nuclear cooperation.

    “This is only going to make China even less interested in pursuing cooperative nuclear security with the United States,” Zhao told Reuters. “Now even this last example of arms control cooperation is being seriously undermined.”

    NO FIRST USE

    A nuclear power since the early 1960s, China for decades maintained a small number of nuclear warheads and missiles as a deterrent under its unique “no first use” pledge.

    That pledge remains official policy but the arsenal that surrounds it has grown rapidly in recent years as part of Beijing’s broader military modernization under President Xi Jinping.

    The People’s Liberation Army now has the ability to launch long-range nuclear-armed missiles from submarines, aircraft and an expanding range of silos in China’s interior – a “nuclear triad” that some experts fear could be used, for example, to coerce rivals in a conflict over Taiwan.

    The Pentagon also warns of possible conditions over “no first use” as the build-up continues – questions that echo many raised by regional military attaches and security scholars.

    “Beijing probably would also consider nuclear use to restore deterrence if a conventional military defeat gravely threatened PRC survival,” the Pentagon report notes, using the initials for China’s official name.

    A month earlier, Washington’s Nuclear Posture Review said Beijing is reluctant to engage in strategic nuclear discussions but that both bilateral and multilateral talks are needed.

    “The scope and pace of the PRC’s nuclear expansion, as well as its lack of transparency and growing military assertiveness, raise questions regarding its intentions, nuclear strategy and doctrine, and perceptions of strategic stability,” it said.

    Some experts believe Beijing has long been wary of being bound by any three-way talks with Russia and the United States given how far it remains behind U.S. capabilities, at least for another decade or more.

    FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE

    Academics familiar with once-regular unofficial and semi-official exchanges – so-called Track 2 and Track 1.5 discussions – with Chinese counterparts over nuclear policy say they have dried up over the last five years amid wider political tensions.

    Singapore-based strategic adviser Alexander Neill said he believed China might increasingly support Russia’s position rhetorically, while feeling emboldened to further accelerate its own build-up.

    That would make it harder for the United States and its allies to engage Beijing on its nuclear doctrine, particularly on “no first use”.

    “China has been consistent in supporting arms control between the U.S. and Russia and has long wanted to maintain the image of being a responsible stakeholder – but there are growing questions about the future,” said Neill, an adjunct fellow with Hawaii’s Pacific Forum think-tank.

    “The aim of the U.S. and its allies is to get crystal clarity over its ‘no first use’ policy because there’s the Taiwan question,” he said, referring to the democratically governed island that Beijing sees as its own territory.

    Carnegie’s Zhao said Putin’s announcement might increase the risk of inciting other nuclear powers to expand their nuclear arsenals and break long-held commitments not to stage fresh tests.

    “If that happens, it is a very negative development in terms of international … nuclear order.”

    Reporting By Greg Torode in Hong Kong and Martin Quin Pollard in Beijing; editing by Nick Macfie and Mark Heinrich

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Host India doesn’t want G20 to discuss further Russia sanctions – sources

    Host India doesn’t want G20 to discuss further Russia sanctions – sources

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    BENGALURU, Feb 22 (Reuters) – India does not want the G20 to discuss additional sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine during New Delhi’s one-year presidency of the bloc, six senior Indian officials said on Wednesday, amid debate over how even to describe the conflict.

    On the sidelines of a G20 gathering in India, financial leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations will meet on Feb. 23, the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion, to discuss measures against Russia, Japan’s finance minister said on Tuesday.

    The officials, who are directly involved in this week’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank chiefs, said the economic impact of the conflict would be discussed but India did not want to consider additional actions against Russia.

    “India is not keen to discuss or back any additional sanctions on Russia during the G20,” said one of the officials. “The existing sanctions on Russia have had a negative impact on the world.”

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    Another official said sanctions were not a G20 issue. “G20 is an economic forum for discussing growth issues.”

    Spokespeople for the Indian government and the finance and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    On Wednesday, the first day of meetings to draft the G20 communique, officials struggled to find an acceptable word to describe the Russia-Ukraine conflict, delegates of at least seven countries present in the meetings said.

    India tried to form a consensus on the words by calling it a “crisis” or a “challenge” instead of a “war”, the officials said, but the discussions concluded without a decision.

    These discussions have been rolled over to Thursday when U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be part of the meetings.

    Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has previously said the war has disproportionately hit poorer countries by raising prices of fuel and food.

    India’s neighbours – Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh – have all sought loans from the International Monetary Fund in recent months to tide over economic troubles brought about by the pandemic and the war.

    U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Tuesday that Washington and its allies planned in coming days to impose new sanctions and export controls that would target Russia’s purchase of dual-use goods like refrigerators and microwaves to secure semiconductors needed for its military.

    The sanctions would also seek to do more to stem the trans-shipment of oil and other restricted goods through bordering countries.

    In addition, Adeyemo said officials from a coalition of more than 30 countries would warn companies, financial institutions and individuals still doing business with Russia that they faced sanctions.

    Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has not openly criticised Moscow for the invasion and instead called for dialogue and diplomacy to end the war. India has also sharply raised purchases of oil from Russia, its biggest supplier of defence hardware.

    Jaishankar told Reuters partner ANI this week that India’s relationship with Russia had been “extraordinarily steady and it has been steady through all the turbulence in global politics”.

    Additional reporting by Krishn Kaushik; Writing by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Nick Macfie

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Putin cancels decree underpinning Moldova’s sovereignty in separatist conflict

    Putin cancels decree underpinning Moldova’s sovereignty in separatist conflict

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    CHISINAU, Feb 22 (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin revoked on Tuesday a 2012 decree that in part underpinned Moldova’s sovereignty in resolving the future of the Transdniestria region – a Moscow-backed separatist region which borders Ukraine and where Russia keeps troops.

    The decree, which included a Moldova component, outlined Russia’s foreign policy 11 years ago which assumed Moscow’s closer relations with the European Union and the United States.

    The order revoking the 2012 document was published on the Kremlin’s website and states that the decision was taken to “ensure the national interests of Russia in connection with the profound changes taking place in international relations”.

    It is part of a series of anti-Western moves announced by Putin on Tuesday.

    Alexandru Flenchea, Moldovan chairman of the joint control commission in the security zone around Transdniestria, said the cancellation did not mean that Putin was abandoning the notion of Moldovan sovereignty.

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    “The decree is a policy document that implements the concept of Russia’s foreign policy,” Flenchea told Publika-TV. “Moldova and Russia have a basic political agreement that provides for mutual respect for the territorial integrity of our countries.”

    The Kremlin has said that Russia’s relations with Moldova, which last week approved a new pro-Western prime minister that vowed to pursue a drive to join the EU, were very tense. It accused Moldova of pursuing an anti-Russian agenda.

    Wedged between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest nations, has been led since 2020 by President Maia Sandu with strong U.S. and European Union backing. U.S. President Joe Biden met her in Poland on Tuesday affirming his support.

    The 2012 decree committed Russia to seeking ways to resolve the separatist issue “based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova in determining the special status of Transdniestria”.

    The Russian-speakers of Transdniestria seceded from Moldova in 1990, one year before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, amid fears that Moldova would merge with Romania, whose language and culture it broadly shares.

    A brief war pitted newly independent Moldova against the separatists in 1992. But there has been virtually no violence in the past 30 years, with Russian “peacekeepers” still posted in the tiny sliver of land, which has no international recognition.

    Moldova’s foreign ministry said it would “carefully study” the document.

    Reporting by Alexander Tanas, Lidia Kelly and Ron Popeski; Writing by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by Michael Perry

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • U.N. to mark one year of Ukraine war with vote to ‘go down in history’

    U.N. to mark one year of Ukraine war with vote to ‘go down in history’

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    UNITED NATIONS, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Marking one year of war, Ukraine and Russia lobbied countries at the United Nations on Wednesday for backing ahead of a vote by the 193-member General Assembly that the United States declared will “go down in history.”

    “We will see where the nations of the world stand on the matter of peace in Ukraine,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the General Assembly.

    The General Assembly appeared set to adopt a resolution on Thursday, put forward by Ukraine and supporters, stressing “the need to reach, as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in line with the founding U.N. Charter.

    U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres denounced Russia’s invasion and said the Charter was “unambiguous,” citing from it: “All members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state.”

    Ukraine and its supporters hope to deepen Russia’s diplomatic isolation by seeking yes votes from nearly three-quarters of the General Assembly to match – if not better – the support received for several resolutions last year.

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    They argue the war is a simple case of one unprovoked country illegally invading another, while Russia portrays itself as battling a “proxy war” with West, which has been arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Moscow since the invasion.

    “The West has … brazenly ignored our concerns and continue bringing the military infrastructure of NATO closer and closer to our borders,” Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the General Assembly.

    [1/6] United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres speaks during a high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to mark one year since Russia invaded Ukraine and to consider the adoption of a resolution on Ukraine at U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, U.S., February 22, 2023. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

    ‘VERY SIMPLE’

    Nebenzia said Moscow “had no other option” but to launch what it has called a “special military operation” on Feb. 24 last year to defend Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine and ensure “the safety and security of our country, using military means.”

    The draft U.N. resolution, which is non-binding, but carries political weight, mirrors a demand the General Assembly made last year for Moscow to withdraw troops and halt the hostilities. Russia has described the text as “unbalanced and anti-Russian” and urged countries to vote no.

    Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters Ukraine was exercising its right to self-defense as enshrined in the U.N. Charter and that “when you are sending weapons to Ukraine, you are helping Ukraine to defend U.N. Charter.”

    “Russia violated the U.N. Charter by becoming an aggressor,” he said at the United Nations. “When you are sending weapons to them, you are helping to destroy the U.N. Charter and everything that the United Nations stand for. It’s very simple.”

    The General Assembly has been the focus for UN action on Ukraine, with the 15-member Security Council paralyzed due to veto power by Russia and the United States along with China, France and Britain.

    The Security Council has held dozens of meetings on Ukraine in the past year and will again discuss the war on Friday at a ministerial gathering, due to be attended by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Diplomats say Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is not scheduled to attend.

    Reporting by Michelle Nichols, editing by Kanishka Singh and David Gregorio

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Analysis: Loans to Russian soldiers fuel calls for European banks to quit

    Analysis: Loans to Russian soldiers fuel calls for European banks to quit

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    BERLIN/LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) – A Russian scheme to grant loan payment holidays to troops fighting in Ukraine, and for banks to write off the entire debt if they are killed or maimed, has added to growing pressure for the remaining overseas lenders in Russia to leave.

    Almost a year since Moscow launched what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine, a handful of European banks, including Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International (RBIV.VI) and Italy’s UniCredit (CRDI.MI), are still making money in Russia.

    The loan relief scheme has not only triggered criticism from Ukraine’s central bank, which said it had appealed to Raiffeisen and other banks to stop doing business in Russia, but also from investors concerned about any reputational impact.

    Raiffeisen and UniCredit are both deeply embedded in the Russian financial system and are the only foreign banks on the central bank’s list of 13 “systemically important credit institutions”, underscoring their importance to Russia’s economy, which is grappling with sweeping Western sanctions.

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    Their role in supporting the Russian economy at a critical time for President Vladimir Putin has prompted some investors to go public with their misgivings.

    “Companies should be very careful,” said Kiran Aziz, of Norwegian pension fund KLP, cautioning of a major risk that the banks could be used to “in other ways finance the war”. KLP funds hold shares in both Raiffeisen and UniCredit.

    At the time the payment holiday law was going through parliament in September, Vyacheslav Volodin, the influential speaker of the lower house, made clear its importance to Russia.

    “Soldiers and officers ensure the security of our country and we must be sure that they will be taken care of,” he said.

    Eric Christian Pederson of Nordea Asset Management, which has more than 300 billion euros ($320 billion) under management, said he too was concerned about Raiffeisen and UniCredit’s Russian presence and had raised this with them.

    The requirement that the banks grant payment holidays to soldiers “illustrates the dangers of operating in jurisdictions where companies can … be forced into actions that go directly against their corporate values,” he added.

    “We feel that it is right for companies to withdraw from Russia, given its unprovoked attack on Ukraine,” said Pederson. Refinitiv data shows Nordea owns shares in UniCredit.

    Banks restructured a total of 167,600 loans for military personnel or their family members, worth more than 800 million euros, between Sept. 21 and the end of last year, Russian central bank data shows.

    Raiffeisen said that only 0.2% of its Russian loans are affected by the “government-imposed loan moratorium”, a sum it described as “negligible”. The bank has a total of almost 9 billion euros of loans in Russia, where it has been for more than 25 years, including to companies.

    It made a net profit of roughly 3.8 billion euros last year, thanks in large part to a 2 billion euro plus profit from its Russia business.

    UniCredit, which entered the Russian market almost 20 years ago when it acquired an Austrian bank, said that the rule was “mandatory under the federal law … for all banks”, declining to say how many of its loans had been forgiven.

    The Italian bank added that its business in Russia was focused on companies rather than individuals. Of UniCredit’s more than 20 billion euro total revenue last year, Russia accounted for more than 1 billion euros.

    But despite an initial sharp fall, UniCredit’s shares are now significantly higher than before Russia moved its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year, while Raiffeisen’s, with a more limited free float, have not recovered.

    “Any profiteering on the ongoing war is not acceptable or aligned with our view of responsible investments,” said a spokesperson for Swedbank Robur, one of Scandinavia’s top investors, adding that reputational risk was a worry.

    Swedbank Robur said it has stakes in both banks, but did not disclose figures.

    Larger institutional investors, including France’s Amundi and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, which advocates responsible investing, declined to comment when asked for their views.

    WINDOW CLOSING?

    Some foreign banks have made relatively quick exits.

    France’s Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) severed its Russia ties in May by selling Rosbank (ROSB.MM) to businessman Vladimir Potanin’s Interros Group.

    But the continued presence of two of Europe’s biggest banks is attracting the attention of regulators at the European Central Bank (ECB), one person familiar with the matter said.

    Andrea Enria, the ECB’s chief supervisor, said the window to quit was “closing a bit” because Russian authorities were taking a more “hostile” approach. But he also voiced support for any bank wanting to reduce their business there or leave.

    Raiffeisen and UniCredit confirmed they were in discussions about Russia with the ECB.

    UniCredit said it kept the ECB “fully and regularly up to date on our strategy of orderly de-risking our exposure to Russia”.

    But with money still to be made, Raiffeisen saw profit from its business in Russia more than triple last year.

    Meanwhile, Russian savers lodged more than 20 billion euros with the bank, which offers a place to deposit funds with fewer sanctions risks.

    This means there is no great impetus for banks to leave Russia, despite regulatory pressure.

    And in Austria, which has close historical and economic ties to eastern Europe and Russia, politicians are largely silent on Raiffeisen’s continuing Russian presence, which in recent months prompted protests outside its headquarters.

    Johann Strobl, Raiffeisen’s CEO, has said he is examining options for the Russian business, although points out that any move is complicated, having earlier said that the bank is not “a sausage stand” that could be closed overnight.

    For some the question is more about morality than money.

    Heinrich Schaller, head of RBI’s third largest shareholder Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberoesterreich and deputy chairman of Raiffeisen, is among those to have aired doubts about staying.

    “Of course it is a question of morals,” he said recently. “No doubt about it.”

    Whatever shareholders may say, a decree by Putin is likely to make getting out of Russia difficult. It banned investors from so-called unfriendly countries from selling shares in banks, unless the Russian President grants an exemption.

    ($1 = 0.9376 euros)

    Additional reporting by Alexandra Schwarz-Goerlich in Vienna and Tom Sims in Frankfurt; Writing by John O’Donnell; Editing by Alexander Smith

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Putin evokes Stalingrad to predict victory over ‘new Nazism’ in Ukraine

    Putin evokes Stalingrad to predict victory over ‘new Nazism’ in Ukraine

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    • Russian president speaks in Volgograd
    • 80 years have passed since Soviet victory in Stalingrad
    • Putin draws parallels with Russia’s campaign in Ukraine
    • This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine.

    VOLGOGRAD, Russia, Feb 2 (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin evoked the spirit of the Soviet army that defeated Nazi German forces at Stalingrad 80 years ago to declare on Thursday that Russia would defeat a Ukraine supposedly in the grip of a new incarnation of Nazism.

    In a fiery speech in Volgograd, known as Stalingrad until 1961, Putin lambasted Germany for helping to arm Ukraine and said, not for the first time, that he was ready to draw on Russia’s entire arsenal, which includes nuclear weapons.

    “Unfortunately we see that the ideology of Nazism in its modern form and manifestation again directly threatens the security of our country,” Putin told an audience of army officers and members of local patriotic and youth groups.

    “Again and again we have to repel the aggression of the collective West. It’s incredible but it’s a fact: we are again being threatened with German Leopard tanks with crosses on them.”

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    Russian officials have been drawing parallels with the struggle against the Nazis ever since Russian forces entered Ukraine almost a year ago.

    Ukraine – which was part of the Soviet Union and itself suffered devastation at the hands of Hitler’s forces – rejects those parallels as spurious pretexts for a war of imperial conquest.

    Stalingrad was the bloodiest battle of World War Two, when the Soviet Red Army, at a cost of over 1 million casualties, broke the back of German invasion forces in 1942-3.

    Putin evoked what he said was the spirit of the defenders of Stalingrad to explain why he thought Russia would prevail in Ukraine, saying the World War Two battle had become a symbol of “the indestructible nature of our people”.

    “Those who draw European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia, and … expect to win a victory over Russia on the battlefield, apparently don’t understand that a modern war with Russia will be quite different for them,” he added.

    “We don’t send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won’t end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that.”

    [1/6] Russian service members drive a tank during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the victory of Red Army over Nazi Germany’s troops in the Battle of Stalingrad during World War Two, in Volgograd, Russia February 2, 2023. REUTERS/Kirill Braga

    VICTORY PARADE

    As Putin finished speaking, the audience gave him a standing ovation.

    Putin had earlier laid flowers at the grave of the Soviet marshal who oversaw the defence of Stalingrad and visited the city’s main memorial complex, where he held a minute’s silence in honour of those who died during the battle.

    Thousands of people lined Volgograd’s streets to watch a victory parade as planes flew overhead and modern and World War Two-era tanks and armoured vehicles rolled past.

    Some of the modern vehicles had the letter ‘V’ painted on them, a symbol used by Russia’s forces in Ukraine.

    Irina Zolotoreva, a 61-year-old who said her relatives had fought at Stalingrad, saw a parallel with Ukraine.

    “Our country is fighting for justice, for freedom. We got victory in 1942 and that’s an example for today’s generation. I think we’ll win again now whatever happens.”

    The focal point for the commemorations was the Mamayev Kurgan memorial complex, on a hill overlooking the River Volga dominated by a hulking statue called The Motherland Calls – of a woman brandishing a giant sword.

    The five-month-long battle reduced the city that bore Soviet leader Josef Stalin’s name to rubble, while claiming an estimated 2 million dead and wounded on both sides.

    A new bust of Stalin was erected in Volgograd on Wednesday along with two others, of Soviet marshals Georgy Zhukov and Alexander Vasilyevsky.

    Despite Stalin’s record of presiding over a famine that killed millions and political repression that killed hundreds of thousands, Russian politicians and school textbooks have in recent years stressed his role as a successful wartime leader who turned the Soviet Union into a superpower.

    Reporting by Tatiana Gomozova
    Writing by Andrew Osborn
    Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Kevin Liffey

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • CIA chief warns against underestimating Xi’s ambitions toward Taiwan

    CIA chief warns against underestimating Xi’s ambitions toward Taiwan

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    WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) – U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said on Thursday that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ambitions toward Taiwan should not be underestimated, despite him likely being sobered by the performance of Russia’s military in Ukraine.

    Burns said that the United States knew “as a matter of intelligence” that Xi had ordered his military to be ready to conduct an invasion of self-governed Taiwan by 2027.

    “Now, that does not mean that he’s decided to conduct an invasion in 2027, or any other year, but it’s a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition,” Burns told an event at Georgetown University in Washington.

    “Our assessment at CIA is that I wouldn’t underestimate President Xi’s ambitions with regard to Taiwan,” he said, adding that the Chinese leader was likely “surprised and unsettled” and trying to draw lessons by the “very poor performance” of the Russian military and its weapons systems in Ukraine.

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    Russia and China signed a “no limits” partnership last February shortly before Russian forces invaded Ukraine, and their economic links have boomed as Russia’s connections with the West have shriveled.

    The Russian invasion had fueled concerns in the West of China possibly making a similar move on Taiwan, a democratic island Beijing says is its territory.

    China has refrained from condemning Russia’s operation against Ukraine, but it has been careful not to provide the sort of direct material support which could provoke Western sanctions like those imposed on Moscow.

    “I think it’s a mistake to underestimate the mutual commitment to that partnership, but it’s not a friendship totally without limits,” Burns said.

    As Burns spoke, news came from U.S. officials that a suspected Chinese spy balloon had been flying over the United States for a few days, and that senior U.S. officials had advised President Joe Biden against shooting it down for fear the debris could pose a safety threat.

    Burn made no mention of the episode but called China the “biggest geopolitical challenge” currently faced by the United States.

    “Competition with China is unique in its scale, and that it really, you know, unfolds over just about every domain, not just military, and ideological, but economic, technological, everything from cyberspace, to space itself as well. It’s a global competition in ways that could be even more intense than competition with the Soviets was,” he said.

    There was no immediate comment from China’s Washington embassy about the remarks from Burns or the balloon flight.

    Burns said the next six months will be “critical” for Ukraine, where Moscow has been making incremental gains in recent weeks.

    He also said Iran’s government was increasingly unsettled by affairs within the country, citing the courage of what he described as “fed up” Iranian women.

    Reporting by Michael Martina, Rami Ayyub, David Brunnstrom and Phil Stewart; Editing by Christopher Cushing

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Analysis: Ukraine’s new weapon will force a Russian shift

    Analysis: Ukraine’s new weapon will force a Russian shift

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    WASHINGTON/KYIV, Feb 2 (Reuters) – The United States has answered President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s plea for rockets that can strike deep behind the front lines of the nearly year-long conflict with Russia.

    Now Russian forces will need to adapt or face potentially catastrophic losses.

    The new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), will allow Ukraine’s military to hit targets at twice the distance reachable by the rockets it now fires from the U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). If included as expected in an upcoming weapons-aid package first reported by Reuters, the 151 km (94 mile) GLSDB will put all of Russia’s supply lines in the east of the country within reach, as well as part of Russian-occupied Crimea.

    This will force Russia to move its supplies even farther from the front lines, making its soldiers more vulnerable and greatly complicating plans for any new offensive.

    “This could slow down [a Russian assault] significantly,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defence minister. “Just as HIMARS significantly influenced the course of events, these rockets could influence the course of events even more.”

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    GLSDB is GPS-guided glide bomb that can manoeuvre to hit hard-to-reach targets such as command centres. Made jointly by SAAB AB (SAABb.ST) and Boeing Co (BA.N), it combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.

    It is not yet compatible with HIMARS, but the United States will provide Ukraine new launchers for the rockets, said sources. GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters.

    VULNERABLE SUPPLY LINES

    When the United States first sent HIMARS launchers in June, it supplied rockets with a 77 km (48 mile) range. This was a major boost for the Ukrainian military, allowing it to destroy Russian ammunition dumps and weapons storage facilities.

    Once Ukraine has the new glide bombs, say military experts, Russia will need to push its supplies even farther away.

    “We are currently unable to reach Russian military facilities more than 80 kilometres away,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Musiyenko. “If we can reach them practically all the way to the Russian border, or in occupied Crimea, then of course this will lower the attacking potential of Russian forces.”

    Crucially, Ukraine will soon be able to reach every point of the occupied overland route to Crimea via Berdiansk and Melitopol. That will force Russia to redirect its supply trucks to the Crimean bridge, which was badly damaged in an attack in October.

    “Russia is using Crimea as a big military base from which it sends reinforcements for its troops on the southern front,” said Musiyenko. “If we had a 150km (munition), we could reach that and disrupt the logistical connection with Crimea.”

    Beyond the logistical impact, the addition of a longer-range weapon to Ukraine’s arsenal could help shake Russian confidence.

    Tom Karako, a weapons and security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that while Ukraine would benefit from an even longer range weapon, GLSDB is “a really important step to give the Ukrainians longer reach and to keep the Russians guessing.”

    NO ATACMS – YET

    For the Biden administration, the decision to send GLSDB to Ukraine represents a step toward meeting Ukraine’s demand for the 185-mile (297km) range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missile, which the administration has so far declined to provide, fearing a further escalation of the conflict.

    The glide bombs, while not as powerful, are much cheaper, smaller and easier to deploy than ATACMS, making them well suited for much of what Ukraine hopes to accomplish: disrupting Russian operations and creating a tactical advantage.

    Still, said Karako, it is possible the Ukrainians could end up receiving an even longer range weapon in the future.

    “Time and again, we’ve seen the administration say that they would go up to a certain point, but not beyond,” he said. “Then, as the situation has deteriorated, they’ve found the necessity to, in fact, go further.”

    This was the case with HIMARS, the Patriot missile defence system, and, just this month, Abrams tanks, all initially off-limits to Ukraine before the administration ended up approving shipments.

    But for now, the focus will be on how quickly the new glide bombs can arrive in Ukraine, said Zagorodnyuk.

    “If they speed it up…this could hugely change the situation on the field of battle.”

    Editing by Don Durfee and Peter Graff

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Turkey summons nine Western ambassadors over security alerts

    Turkey summons nine Western ambassadors over security alerts

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    ANKARA, Feb 2 (Reuters) – Turkey summoned ambassadors of nine Western countries including the United States and Sweden on Thursday to criticise their decisions to temporarily shut diplomatic missions and issue security alerts following Koran-burning incidents in Europe.

    The envoys of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Britain were also summoned, according to foreign ministry sources in Ankara.

    Over the last two weeks, far-right activists burned copies of the Muslim holy book, the Koran, in Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands, acts that prompted Turkey to halt negotiations meant to lift its objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

    The European countries have denounced the incidents but some say they cannot prevent them because of free speech rules.

    Over the last week, France, Germany, Italy and the United States were among those issuing warnings to their citizens of an increased risk of attacks in Turkey, particularly against diplomatic missions and non-Muslim places of worship.

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    Germany, France and the Netherlands were among countries that temporarily closed diplomatic missions in Turkey for security reasons this week. Some cited central Istanbul areas of high concern but did not provide the source of the information.

    “Such simultaneous activities do not constitute a proportional and commonsense approach and…only serve the covert agenda of terrorist organizations,” said a foreign ministry source who asked not to be further identified.

    The source added that the security of all diplomatic missions is ensured in accordance with international conventions and “allies should cooperate with” Turkish authorities.

    The interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, said on Twitter the embassies were waging “a new psychological war” against Turkey.

    All 30 NATO members must approve newcomers. Sweden and Finland applied for membership last year in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but ran into surprise resistance from Turkey.

    Since then they have sought to win its backing including agreeing to take a harder line domestically against those Turkey says are members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PKK, designated a terrorist group by Ankara and the European Union.

    On Thursday, police in NATO member Norway banned a planned anti-Islam protest including the burning of the Koran for security reasons, hours after the Turkish foreign ministry summoned Oslo’s ambassador to complain.

    Diplomatic tensions rose last weekend when Turkey responded to the initial U.S. security alert by warning its citizens against “possible Islamophobic, xenophobic and racist attacks” in the United States and Europe.

    The U.S. embassy confirmed its Ambassador Jeffry Flake attended a meeting at Turkey’s foreign ministry on Thursday. Two European diplomatic sources said envoys from Germany, France and the Netherlands were also summoned.

    Writing by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Alison Williams, Peter Graff and Mark Heinrich

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Erdogan to Sweden: Don’t expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest

    Erdogan to Sweden: Don’t expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest

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    ANKARA, Jan 23 (Reuters) – Sweden should not expect Turkey’s support for its NATO membership after a protest near the Turkish embassy in Stockholm at the weekend including the burning of a copy of the Koran, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday.

    Protests in Stockholm on Saturday against Turkey and against Sweden’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have heightened tensions with Turkey, whose backing Sweden needs to gain entry to the military alliance.

    “Those who allow such blasphemy in front of our embassy can no longer expect our support for their NATO membership,” Erdogan said in a speech after a Cabinet meeting.

    “If you love members of terrorist organisations and enemies of Islam so much and protect them, then we advise you to seek their support for your countries’ security,” he said.

    Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom declined to immediately comment on Erdogan’s remarks, telling Reuters in a written statement he wanted to understand exactly what had been said.

    “But Sweden will respect the agreement that exists between Sweden, Finland and Turkey regarding our NATO membership,” he added.

    Sweden and Finland applied last year to join NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but all 30 member states must approve their bids. Ankara has previously said Sweden in particular must first take a clearer stance against what it sees as terrorists, mainly Kurdish militants and a group it blames for a 2016 coup attempt in Turkey.

    U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Finland and Sweden are ready to join the alliance, but declined to comment on whether Washington thought Erdogan’s comments meant a definitive shutting of the door to them.

    “Ultimately, this is a decision and consensus that Finland and Sweden are going to have to reach with Turkey,” Price said.

    Price told reporters that burning books that are holy to many is a deeply disrespectful act, adding that the United States is cognizant that those who may be behind what took place in Sweden may be intentionally trying to weaken unity across the Atlantic and among Washington’s European allies.

    “We have a saying in this country – something can be lawful but awful. I think in this case, what we’ve seen in the context of Sweden falls into that category,” Price said.

    The Koran-burning was carried out by Rasmus Paludan, leader of Danish far-right political party Hard Line. Paludan, who also has Swedish citizenship, has staged a number of demonstrations in the past where he burned the Koran.

    Several Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait denounced the event. Turkey had already summoned Sweden’s ambassador and cancelled a planned visit by the Swedish defence minister to Ankara.

    Reporting by Ece Toksabay and Huseyin Hayatsever; Additional reporting by Niklas Pollard in Stockholm and Humeyra Pamuk in Washington; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Grant McCool

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Germany starts deploying Patriot air defence units to Poland

    Germany starts deploying Patriot air defence units to Poland

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    GNOIEN, Germany Jan 23 (Reuters) – Germany on Monday dispatched the first two out of three Patriot air defence units that will be sent to the Polish town of Zamosc close to the Ukrainian border where they will be deployed to prevent stray missile strikes.

    Two men were killed by a stray Ukrainian missile that struck the Polish village of Przewodow in the region last November, in an incident that raised fears of the war in Ukraine spilling over the border.

    As a result, Berlin offered to deploy three of its Patriot units to Poland to help secure its air space.

    Ground-based air defence systems such as Raytheon’s (RTX.N) Patriot are built to intercept incoming missiles.

    “One of the reasons why Germany will now support NATO’s eastern flank in Poland with Patriots is certainly because we saw how quickly the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could spill over to NATO member countries,” Colonel Joerg Sievers told reporters in the eastern German town of Gnoien before the Patriots’ departure.

    Sievers, who will command the German unit in Poland, underlined the defensive nature of the Patriot system.

    “We are not the only defence forces on the ground, the British and Americans are also on the ground,” he said.

    “Patriot is a strictly defensive system, and we hope that we will be able to provide sufficient protection there to prevent attacks or accidents like the one in November in the future,” he added.

    .

    Reporting by Oliver Ellrodt and Stefan Remter, writing by Sabine Siebold

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  • Germany, U.S. to send battle tanks to Ukraine, Russia slams decision

    Germany, U.S. to send battle tanks to Ukraine, Russia slams decision

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    • U.S. providing Abrams tanks, Germany to send Leopard tanks
    • Biden: Tanks pose ‘no offensive threat’ to Russia
    • Russian-backed leader: Wagner force advancing on Bakhmut

    WASHINGTON/BERLIN/KYIV, Jan 26 (Reuters) – The United States and Germany have announced plans to arm Ukraine with dozens of battle tanks in its fight against Russia, which denounced the decisions as an “extremely dangerous” step.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy praised the commitments and urged allies to provide large quantities of tanks quickly.

    “The key now is speed and volumes. Speed in training our forces, speed in supplying tanks to Ukraine. The numbers in tank support,” he said in a nightly video address on Wednesday. “We have to form such a ‘tank fist’, such a ‘fist of freedom’.”

    Ukraine has been seeking hundreds of modern tanks to give its troops the firepower to break Russian defensive lines and reclaim occupied territory in the south and east. Ukraine and Russia have been relying primarily on Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

    The promise of tanks comes as both Ukraine and Russia are expected to launch new offensives in the war and as fighting has intensified in Bakhmut in Ukraine’s east.

    Ukrainian forces destroyed 24 drones, including 15 over Kyiv, that Russia launched in overnight attacks, the military said on Thursday, adding there was major danger of more Russian air raids. An alert had been declared over most of the country.

    U.S. President Joe Biden announced his decision to supply 31 M1 Abrams tanks hours after Berlin said it would provide Leopard 2 tanks – the workhorse of NATO armies across Europe.

    Maintaining Kyiv’s drumbeat of requests for more aid, Zelenskiy said he spoke to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and called for long-range missiles and aircraft.

    Ukraine’s allies have already provided billions in military support including sophisticated U.S. missile systems.

    The United States has been wary of deploying the difficult-to-maintain Abrams but had to change tack to persuade Germany to send to Ukraine its more easily operated Leopards.

    Biden said the tanks pose “no offensive threat” to Russia and that they were needed to help the Ukrainians “improve their ability to manoeuvre in open terrain”.

    Germany will send an initial company of 14 tanks from its stocks and approve shipments by allied European states.

    The Abrams can be tricky, but the Leopard was designed as a system that any NATO member could service and crews and repair specialists could be trained together on a single model, Ukrainian military expert Viktor Kevlyuk told Espreso TV.

    “If we have been brought into this club by providing us with these vehicles, I would say our prospects look good.”

    ‘DANGEROUS DECISION’

    [1/17] Spanish army tank Leopard 2 of NATO enhanced Forward Presence battle group fires during the final phase of the Silver Arrow 2022 military drill on Adazi military training grounds, Latvia September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins

    Russia reacted with fury to Germany’s decision to approve the delivery of the Leopards.

    “This extremely dangerous decision takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation,” said Sergei Nechayev, Russia’s ambassador to Germany.

    Since invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year, Russia has shifted its rhetoric on the war from an operation to “denazify” and “demilitarise” its neighbour to casting it as a face-off between it and the U.S.-led NATO alliance.

    Senior U.S. officials said it would take months for the Abrams to be delivered and described the decision to supply them as providing for Ukraine’s long-term defence.

    Germany’s tanks would probably be ready in three or four months, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said.

    Pledges to Ukraine from other countries that field Leopards have multiplied with announcements from Poland, Finland and Norway. Spain and the Netherlands said they were considering it.

    Britain has offered 14 of its comparable Challenger tanks and France is considering sending its Leclercs.

    BAKHMUT FIGHTING

    The Kyiv government acknowledged on Wednesday its forces had withdrawn from Soledar, a small salt-mining town close to Bakhmut in the east, that Russia said it captured more than a week ago, its biggest gain for more than six months.

    The area around Bakhmut, with a pre-war population of 70,000, has seen some of the most brutal fighting of the war.

    Ukraine’s military said that Russian forces were attacking in the direction of Bakhmut “with the aim of capturing the entire Donetsk region and regardless of its own casualties”.

    The Russian-installed governor of Donetsk said earlier that units of Russia’s Wagner contract militia were moving forward inside Bakhmut, with fighting on the outskirts and in neighbourhoods recently held by Ukraine.

    Analyst Kevlyuk said losing Bakhmut would not change much in terms of the tactical scheme of things but that he was more concerned by Russian efforts to regroup and concentrate resources in the Luhansk region.

    Donetsk and Luhansk make up the Donbas region. Russian forces control nearly all of Luhansk, while Russians and their proxies say they control about half of Donetsk.

    Reuters could not verify battlefield reports.

    The 11-month war has killed thousands of people, driven millions from their homes and reduced cities to rubble.

    Reporting by Reuters bureaus; writing by Cynthia Osterman and Himani Sarkar; editing by Grant McCool, Robert Birsel

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  • Russia’s military reforms respond to NATO’s expansion, Ukraine -chief of general staff

    Russia’s military reforms respond to NATO’s expansion, Ukraine -chief of general staff

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    • Reforms call for creation of two additional military districts
    • Army corps to be based near border with Finland
    • Forces to be boosted in territories Moscow has claimed to annex

    Jan 23 (Reuters) – Russia’s new military reforms respond to possible NATO expansion and the use of Kyiv by the “collective West” to wage a hybrid war against Russia, the newly appointed general in charge of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine said.

    Valery Gerasimov, in his first public comments since his Jan. 11 appointment to the role, admitted also to problems with the mobilisation of troops, after public criticism forced President Vladimir Putin to reprimand the military.

    The military reforms, announced mid-January, have been approved by Putin and can be adjusted to respond to threats to Russia’s security, Gerasimov told the news website Argumenty i Fakty in remarks published late Monday.

    “Today, such threats include the aspirations of the North Atlantic Alliance to expand to Finland and Sweden, as well as the use of Ukraine as a tool for waging a hybrid war against our country,” said Gerasimov, who is also the chief of Russia’s military general staff.

    Finland and Sweden applied last year to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after Russia invaded Ukraine.

    Under Moscow’s new military plan, an army corps will be added to Karelia in Russia’s north, which borders with Finland.

    The reforms also call for two additional military districts, Moscow and Leningrad, which existed before they were merged in 2010 to be part of the Western Military District.

    In Ukraine, Russia will add three motorized rifle divisions as part of combined arms formations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, parts of which Moscow claims it annexed in September.

    “The main goal of this work is to ensure guaranteed protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country,” Gerasimov said.

    ‘ACTING AGAINST THE ENTIRE COLLECTIVE WEST’

    Gerasimov added that modern Russia has never seen such “intensity of military hostilities”, forcing it to carry out offensive operations to stabilise the situation.

    “Our country and its armed forces are today acting against the entire collective West,” Gerasimov said.

    In the 11 months since invading Ukraine, Russia has been shifting its rhetoric on the war from an operation to “denazify” and “demilitarise” its neighbour to increasingly casting it as defence from an aggressive West.

    Kyiv and its Western allies call it a an unprovoked act of aggression, and the West has been sending increasingly heavy weaponry to Ukraine to help it resist Russian forces.

    Gerasimov and the leadership of the defence ministry have faced sharp criticism for multiple setbacks on the battlefield and Moscow’s failure to secure victory in a campaign the Kremlin had expected to take just a short time.

    The country’s mobilisation of some 300,000 additional personnel in the fall proceeded chaotically.

    “The system of mobilization training in our country was not fully adapted to the new modern economic relations,” Gerasimov said. “So I had to fix everything on the go.”

    Writing by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by Himani Sarkar

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Analysis: Russian mercenary boss courts Putin with Ukrainian battlefield success

    Analysis: Russian mercenary boss courts Putin with Ukrainian battlefield success

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    • Wagner Group spearheaded assault on Ukraine’s Soledar
    • Mercenary chief, in PR push, claims credit for Wagner
    • Success hailed by some, played down by others

    LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – In the twilight of the Soviet Union, Yevgeny Prigozhin was languishing in prison for theft. Now as the founder of Russia’s most powerful mercenary group, he is vying for Vladimir Putin’s favour by claiming a rare battlefield win in Ukraine.

    His aim is to leverage the success that Wagner Group, his mercenary outfit, had this week in pushing Ukrainian forces out of the salt mining town of Soledar, a move that revives Russian plans to seize more of eastern Ukraine after multiple defeats.

    Russia claimed victory on Friday but Ukraine said its troops were still fighting in the town. Reuters could not immediately verify the situation.

    Prigozhin, 61, who is sanctioned in the West and casts himself as a ruthless patriot, had posed in combat gear with his men in a salt mine beneath Soledar and said they were fighting alone, an assertion initially contradicted by defence officials.

    The Kremlin on Thursday spoke of the “absolutely heroic selfless actions” of those fighting in Soledar. The defence ministry on Friday attributed victory to its airborne units, missile forces and “artillery of a grouping of Russian forces”.

    Prigozhin said Russian officials were not giving his forces due credit.

    “They constantly try to steal victory from the Wagner PMC (private military company) and talk about the presence of other unknown people just to belittle Wagner’s merits,” he complained.

    The defence ministry responded hours later with a new statement “to clarify” the situation which acknowledged that Wagner fighters, whose actions it hailed as “courageous and selfless,” had been the ones to storm the town.

    Some commentators have said Prigozhin could one day be made defence minister, but it is not fully clear how much influence the businessman from St Petersburg has gained with Putin, who tends to balance factions with a strategy of divide and rule.

    ‘A NEW HERO’

    Prominent Putin supporters, some with access to the Russian leader, have contrasted Prigozhin’s progress with what they say has been a less impressive performance by the regular military.

    Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, has hailed the shaven-headed mercenary chief as “a new hero.”

    “Prigozhin has flaws too. But I won’t tell you about them. Because Prigozhin and Wagner are now Russia’s national treasure. They are becoming a symbol of victory,” Markov wrote on his blog, saying they should be given more resources by the state.

    Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the state-controlled RT channel and close to the Kremlin, thanked Prigozhin for Soledar.

    Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speech writer, suggested on his blog that Prigozhin was manoeuvring in case Putin removed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, 67, his long-standing ally.

    Prigozhin has played down the idea he is seeking official elevation in the past, while not emphatically ruling it out. His press service, and the Kremlin, did not immediately reply to requests for fresh comment.

    Putin has said Wagner does not represent the state and is not breaking Russian law and has the right to work and promote its business interests anywhere in the world.

    One of the military bloggers who help shape Russians’ view of the conflict likened Prigozhin to a Roman centurion licensed to operate above and outside the law to achieve Putin’s goals.

    “A couple more successful Wagner operations and online votes proposing Prigozhin for Minister of Defence will cease to be fantasy,” said Zhivov Z.

    Yet Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist and former Federal Security Service officer who helped launch the original Donbas war in 2014 and is under U.S. sanctions, has said Prigozhin is careless with the lives of his men. He has also said capturing Soledar and nearby Bakhmut would not be militarily significant.

    Prigozhin, nicknamed “Putin’s Chef” by Western media because he once ran a floating restaurant in St Petersburg where Putin ate, has plenty to gain or lose.

    He has his own future to consider at a time of tumult as well as the commercial interests of Wagner, which Russian officials say has military and mining contracts in Africa and is active in Syria. He also has a vast catering company serving state entities, as well as troll farms and media outlets.

    “In essence, he is a private businessman who is highly dependent on how his relations with the authorities are structured. This is a very vulnerable position,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik analysis firm.

    The attendance on a Wagner training course this month of the governor of Russia’s Kursk region bordering Ukraine looked like another way for Prigozhin to enhance his connections, she said.

    ‘UNSPECIFIED SAFEGUARDS’

    Russia has allowed Prigozhin to recruit tens of thousands of convicts from its prisons for Wagner, which U.S. officials say is a 50,000-strong force, and let him equip them with tanks, aircraft and missile defence systems.

    It has also stood by while he flung sometimes profane criticism at the top brass, although some Western military analysts suggested the appointment of the most senior general to lead the war in Ukraine was designed to balance his influence.

    Before Russia’s invasion, something Moscow calls “a special military operation”, Prigozhin had denied his Wagner connection. In September, he said he had founded the mercenary group in 2014.

    Despite its sometimes publicly strained ties with the Russian defence ministry, some Western military analysts suspect Wagner is closely affiliated with it.

    Leonid Nevzlin, an Israel-based former executive at oil major Yukos which he says was illegally appropriated by the Russian state, something it denies, said this week there was a risk Wagner could throw off Kremlin control.

    One source close to the Russian authorities, who declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to the media, said the Kremlin viewed Prigozhin as a useful operator but maintained unspecified safeguards over leaders of armed groups.

    “There is a ceiling (of growth) and mechanisms in place,” said the source, who declined to provide more details.

    Reporting by Andrew Osborn; editing by Philippa Fletcher

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Factbox: What do we know about the Ukrainian New Year’s Eve attack on Russian troops?

    Factbox: What do we know about the Ukrainian New Year’s Eve attack on Russian troops?

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    MAKIIVKA, Ukraine, Jan 3 (Reuters) – A Ukrainian missile strike on Jan. 1 against a vocational school in the Russian-controlled Donetsk region of Ukraine housing mobilised Russian troops has become one of the bloodiest incidents of Russia’s nearly year-long war in Ukraine.

    What do we know, and what do we not know, about what happened?

    WHAT HAPPENED

    The strike on Professional Technical School No. 19 in Makiivka, a twin city to the regional capital of Donetsk which has been controlled by Russian proxy forces since 2014, occurred at 0001 on New Year’s Day, Daniil Bezsonov, a Russian-installed Donetsk official, said.

    Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine struck with six U.S.-made HIMARS rockets.

    The governor of Russia’s Samara region said that many of the dead soldiers were locals.

    Unconfirmed footage circulated on social media purportedly shows residents watching Russian President Vladimir Putin’s midnight address before running for cover as missiles strike the ground nearby.

    Reuters photographs from the scene show the ruined remains of the school.

    LOSSES

    Reports of casualties vary. Reuters was unable to independently verify how many people were killed.

    Russia’s defence ministry said on Monday that 63 soldiers had been killed in the strike, an assessment echoed by a source close to Donetsk’s Russia-installed separatist leadership, who told Reuters that dozens had died.

    The ministry acknowledged the attack only in the final paragraph of a 528-word daily roundup, more than 36 hours after the attack took place.

    Russia has consistently underplayed its casualty figures, including claiming that only one man died during the sinking of the battleship Moskva in April.

    Ukraine has claimed a far higher casualty figure, saying that around 400 died. A number of Russian military bloggers, who have gained large followings through mixing pro-Kremlin advocacy with unvarnished information on the state of the front, have also given casualty figures closer to the Ukrainian number.

    In a post on the Telegram messaging app, Igor Girkin, a former FSB officer instrumental in starting the initial 2014 war in the Donbas, said that there were “many hundreds” of killed and injured.

    Girkin said that ammunition and military equipment had been stored in the buildings, contributing to the strength of the blast. He blamed Russia’s “untrainable” generals for the losses.

    Grey Zone, a Telegram channel linked to the Wagner mercenary outfit, said that around 500 men were billeted in the complex.

    In footage circulated on social media and geolocated by Reuters, the vocational school, a large complex of Soviet-era buildings, appears virtually razed as emergency service workers sift through rubble.

    OUTCRY

    Coming at the climax of the new year’s celebrations, the most important holiday of the year in Russia, the attack has resonated within Russia.

    A report by state-owned news agency TASS, citing Donetsk officials, saying that Ukrainian forces were able to identify the target from soldiers using their Russian mobile phones has provoked anger among Russia’s military blogger community.

    “As expected, the blame for what happened in Makiivka began to be blamed on the mobilised soldiers themselves. You see, they turned on their phones and got spotted,” wrote Grey Zone, a Telegram channel linked to the Wagner Group mercenary outfit.

    Grey Zone went on to blame commanders for lodging large numbers of soldiers in a building vulnerable to artillery fire.

    In a post on Telegram, Sergei Mironov, leader of a Kremlin-loyal party in Russia’s parliament, said that an investigation was necessary to determine whether “treachery or criminal negligence” was behind the strike. He said that officials responsible should be prosecuted.

    Reporting by Reuters; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Nick Macfie

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Soldiers’ widows group calls on Putin to order major mobilisation for Ukraine war

    Soldiers’ widows group calls on Putin to order major mobilisation for Ukraine war

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    • This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine

    MOSCOW, Jan 3 (Reuters) – A little known patriotic group which supports the widows of Russian soldiers has called on President Vladimir Putin to order a large-scale mobilisation of millions of men and to close the borders to ensure victory in Ukraine.

    Putin, Russia’s 70-year-old paramount leader, is under intense pressure to deliver victory in Ukraine more than 10 months since he sent troops as part of an operation he says was intended to defend Russians in eastern Ukraine.

    “We ask our President, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, to allow the Russian Army to carry out a large-scale mobilisation,” the Soldiers’ Widows of Russia group said in a post on Telegram.

    “We ask our President, our Supreme Commander-in-Chief, to prohibit the departure of men of military age from Russia. And we have a full moral right to do this: our husbands died protecting these men, but who will protect us if they run away?”

    After ordering what he cast as a “partial mobilisation” on Sept. 21, Russia’s first since World War Two, around 300,000 additional men were drafted, though several hundred thousand more Russian men fled abroad to avoid being called up.

    The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the appeal from the widows’ group. Putin said last month that there was no need for an additional mobilisation.

    A representative of the widows’ group told Reuters that all fit Russian men should be mobilised to defend the Motherland.

    “The coming war will require completely different resources: human, psychological, economic,” she told Reuters. “Protecting the Motherland is a duty.”

    GEOPOLITICAL SHOWDOWN

    Putin has for months been casting the war as part of a much wider historical struggle between Russia and the West which the Kremlin chief says wants to carve up and destroy Russia.

    Western powers deny they aim to destroy Russia.

    In a grim New Year’s Eve message, Putin said that defending the Motherland was the sacred duty of all Russians and promised victory in Ukraine.

    Ukraine and the West say Putin has no justification for what they cast as an imperial-style war of occupation.

    The widows group began work about two months ago to assist the wives of soldiers killed in Ukraine and has contacts with the Kremlin administration, its representative said.

    “We are in constant contact with the presidential administration, and if necessary, we transmit requests to it in order to receive this or that support,” the representative said.

    Invoking Soviet leader Josef Stalin, the group said that now was the time for tough measures to defend against the evil forces coalescing around Russia’s borders.

    “Today, all the world’s evil has united against Russia – the entire Western world has turned against us,” the group said. “It’s either us or them, there is no other choice.”

    Stalin in 1942 issued Order No. 227 which became known as the “Not a step back” order. It was an attempt to establish discipline within the Red Army though thousands of Soviet troops were shot by their own side for alleged cowardice.

    Stalin “did not think about ratings or dissatisfaction among dissidents: he thought only of victory,” the group said. “Now is not the time to be cowardly.”

    Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge;
    Editing by Andrew Cawthorne

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Putin’s call for Orthodox Christmas truce in Ukraine greeted with scepticism

    Putin’s call for Orthodox Christmas truce in Ukraine greeted with scepticism

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    • Putin orders ceasefire to start at noon on Friday
    • Ukraine says no truce until invaders leave
    • Germany, U.S. agree to send combat vehicles to Ukraine

    KYIV/BAKHMUT, Ukraine, Jan 5 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Thursday for a 36-hour ceasefire in Ukraine to mark Orthodox Christmas, a move rejected by Kyiv which said there could be no truce until Russia withdraws its troops from occupied land.

    The United States and Germany made a joint announcement to supply Ukraine with armoured combat vehicles, a boost for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy who has urged Western allies to provide his forces with armour and heavy weapons for months.

    Fifty Bradley Fighting Vehicles would be included in a $2.8 billion U.S. package. Germany said it was sending Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles, following an announcement by France on Wednesday it was sending AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles.

    The Kremlin said Putin had ordered Russian troops to cease firing from midday on Friday along the entire front, in response to a call for a Christmas truce from Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, a close Putin ally.

    “Proceeding from the fact that a large number of citizens professing Orthodoxy live in the areas of hostilities, we call on the Ukrainian side to declare a ceasefire and allow them to attend services on Christmas Eve, as well as on Christmas Day,” Putin said in his order.

    Russia’s Orthodox Church observes Christmas on Jan. 7. Ukraine’s main Orthodox Church has rejected the authority of the Moscow patriarch, and many Ukrainian believers have shifted their calendar to celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25 as in the West.

    A genuine truce in Ukraine would be the first since May, when the sides halted intense fighting in the devastated port of Mariupol to allow Ukrainian forces to surrender there.

    On Thursday night, Zelenskiy accused Russia of wanting to use a truce as cover to stop Ukrainian advances in the strategic industrial area and eastern frontline known as the Donbas.

    “They now want to use Christmas as a cover, albeit briefly, to stop the advances of our boys in Donbas and bring equipment, ammunitions and mobilised troops closer to our positions,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address, speaking pointedly in Russian rather than Ukrainian.

    ‘CYNICAL’ SAYS U.S.

    In Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden, the State Department and the Pentagon greeted Putin’s order with scepticism. Biden said he thought Putin was “trying to find some oxygen”.

    Ukraine has scored some battlefield successes in the past few months although Russia has kept up a barrage of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy plants, knocking out power to millions of people at times in the middle of winter. Russia has denied targeting civilians since its invasion began Feb. 24 but the strikes included Christmas Day and New Year’s attacks on civilian infrastructure, according to Kyiv.

    “There’s one word that best described that and it’s ‘cynical’,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a press briefing of Putin’s ceasefire order.

    “Our concern … is that the Russians would seek to use any temporary pause in fighting to rest, to refit, to regroup, and ultimately to re-attack,” Price said.

    Putin’s ceasefire also appeared to face challenges from Russia’s own side. Denis Pushilin, Russian-installed leader in Ukraine’s Donetsk province, scene of the heaviest fighting, wrote on Telegram: “There can be no talk of any truce!”

    He said Putin’s order involved only halting offensive operations.

    Earlier on Thursday, the Kremlin said Putin had told Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow was ready for peace talks – but only under the condition that Ukraine “take into account the new territorial realities”, a reference to Kyiv acknowledging Moscow’s annexation of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhailo Podolyak called that demand “fully unacceptable”.

    MEAT GRINDER

    Ten months after Putin ordered what he calls a “special military operation” to protect Russian security, Moscow and Kyiv have entered the new year with hardened diplomatic positions.

    Putin has shown no willingness to discuss relinquishing his territorial conquests, despite mounting losses among his troops.

    While some of the heaviest fighting of the war continues, the front line has been static since the last big Russian retreat in mid-November. The worst battles have taken place near the eastern city of Bakhmut, which both sides have compared to a meat grinder.

    Ukraine says Russia has lost thousands of troops despite seizing scant ground in months of futile waves of assaults on Bakhmut. Russia says the city is key to its aim to capture the rest of Donetsk province, one of four partially occupied regions it claims to have annexed.

    Near the front, Reuters saw explosions from outgoing artillery and smoke filling the sky.

    “We are holding up. The guys are trying to hold up the defence,” said Viktor, a 39-year-old Ukrainian soldier driving an armoured vehicle out of Soledar, a salt-mining town on Bakhmut’s northeastern outskirts.

    Most civilians have been evacuated from Bakhmut. Those who have stayed survive under near constant bombardment, with no heat or electricity. Parts of the city are a wasteland, with sections of residential apartment blocks flattened into concrete piles.

    Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Peter Graff and Grant McCool; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Cynthia Osterman

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Ukraine says Russia strike kills at least 10; Moscow blames pro-Kyiv forces

    Ukraine says Russia strike kills at least 10; Moscow blames pro-Kyiv forces

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    KYIV, Dec 24 (Reuters) – A Russian strike on Ukraine’s recently recaptured city of Kherson killed at least 10 people, wounded 58 and left bloodied corpses on the road, authorities said, in what Kyiv condemned as wanton killing for pleasure.

    A pro-Moscow official responded by saying Ukrainian forces had launched the attack in a bid to blame the Russian military.

    Fresh from a trip to the United States seeking weapons to resist the 10-month-old Russian invasion, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy published photos showing streets strewn with burning cars, smashed windows and bodies.

    “Social networks will most likely mark these photos as ‘sensitive content’. But this is not sensitive content – it is the real life of Ukraine and Ukrainians,” he wrote.

    “These are not military facilities. … It is terror, it is killing for the sake of intimidation and pleasure.”

    Russia controls most but not all of Kherson region. Local Governor Yaroslav Yanushevych, appointed by Kyiv, told national television the death toll had risen to 10, Interfax Ukraine news agency said.

    Vladimir Saldo, the region’s Russian-installed governor, said Kyiv had ordered troops to shell the city.

    “This is a disgusting provocation with the obvious aim of blaming the Russian armed forces,” he wrote on Telegram.

    Yuriy Sobolevskyi, deputy chair of the regional council, said a missile landed next to a supermarket by the city’s Freedom Square.

    Cars burn on a street after a Russian military strike, amid Russia’s attack of Ukraine, in Kherson, Ukraine December 24, 2022. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS

    “There were civilians there, each of whom lived their own life, went about their own business,” he said, noting a girl selling phone Sim cards, others unloading items from a truck, and passersby.

    Reuters was unable to independently verify the reports from Kherson.

    Ukraine retook the city, the only regional capital Russia had since its Feb. 24 invasion, in November. Since then, Kyiv says Russian forces have heavily shelled the city from across the vast Dnipro river.

    ‘KILL WITH IMPUNITY’

    Ukrainian presidential aide Kyrylo Tymoshenko said the attack came from a Grad multiple rocket launcher.

    Another aide, Mykhailo Podolyak, criticized those calling for Kyiv to seek peace talks with Russia, referencing Moscow’s relentless pounding of Ukraine’s power grid since October that has left millions without heat or water.

    “I’ll remind those who propose to take into account (Russian) ‘peace’ initiatives: Right now Russia is ‘negotiating,’ killing Kherson residents, wiping out Bakhmut, destroying Kyiv/Odesa grids, torturing civilians in Melitopol,” Podolyak wrote.

    “Russia wants to kill with impunity. Shall we allow it?”

    Yanushevych had earlier shared a message from the city’s blood bank calling for urgent donations.

    Kyiv was still recovering from Monday’s wave of missile strikes, which knocked out half the city’s power supply into the next day, according to Ukraine’s prime minister.

    Reporting by Max Hunder;
    Editing by Andrew Cawthorne, David Ljunggren, Josie Kao and Leslie Adler

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Taliban bans female NGO staff, jeopardizing aid efforts

    Taliban bans female NGO staff, jeopardizing aid efforts

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    • Taliban orders NGOs to stop female staff from working
    • Comes after suspension of female students from universities
    • U.N. says order would seriously impact humanitarian operations
    • U.N. plans to meet with Taliban to seek clarity

    KABUL, Dec 24 (Reuters) – Afghanistan’s Taliban-run administration on Saturday ordered all local and foreign NGOs to stop female employees from working, in a move the United Nations said would hit humanitarian operations just as winter grips a country already in economic crisis.

    A letter from the economy ministry, confirmed by spokesperson Abdulrahman Habib, said female employees of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) were not allowed to work until further notice because some had not adhered to the administration’s interpretation of Islamic dresscode for women.

    It comes days after the administration ordered universities to close to women, prompting global condemnation and sparking some protests and heavy criticism inside Afghanistan.

    Both decisions are the latest restrictions on women that are likely to undermine the Taliban-run administration’s efforts to gain international recognition and clear sanctions that are severely hampering the economy.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Twitter he was “deeply concerned” the move “will disrupt vital and life-saving assistance to millions,” adding: “Women are central to humanitarian operations around the world. This decision could be devastating for the Afghan people.”

    Ramiz Alakbarov, the U.N. deputy special representative for Afghanistan and humanitarian coordinator, told Reuters that although the U.N. had not received the order, contracted NGOs carried out most of its activities and would be heavily impacted.

    “Many of our programmes will be affected,” he said, because they need female staff to assess humanitarian need and identify beneficiaries, otherwise they will not be able to implement aid programs.

    International aid agency AfghanAid said it was immediately suspending operations while it consulted with other organisations, and that other NGOs were taking similar actions.

    The potential endangerment of aid programmes that millions of Afghans access comes when more than half the population relies on humanitarian aid, according to aid agencies, and during the mountainous nation’s coldest season.

    “There’s never a right time for anything like this … but this particular time is very unfortunate because during winter time people are most in need and Afghan winters are very harsh,” said Alakbarov.

    He said his office would consult with NGOs and U.N. agencies on Sunday and seek to meet with Taliban authorities for an explanation.

    Aid workers say female workers are essential in a country where rules and cultural customs largely prevent male workers from delivering aid to female beneficiaries.

    “An important principle of delivery of humanitarian aid is the ability of women to participate independently and in an unimpeded way in its distribution so if we can’t do it in a principled way then no donors will be funding any programs like that,” Alakbarov said.

    When asked whether the rules directly included U.N. agencies, Habib said the letter applied to organisations under Afghanistan’s coordinating body for humanitarian organisations, known as ACBAR. That body does not include the U.N., but includes over 180 local and international NGOs.

    Their licences would be suspended if they did not comply, the letter said.

    Afghanistan’s struggling economy has tipped into crisis since the Taliban took over in 2021, with the country facing sanctions, cuts in development aid and a freeze in central bank assets.

    A record 28 million Afghans are estimated to need humanitarian aid next year, according to AfghanAid.

    Reporting by Kabul newsroom; additional reporting by Susan Heavey in Washington
    Editing by Mark Potter and Josie Kao

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Ukraine, Baltics rebuke Macron for suggesting ‘security guarantees’ for Russia

    Ukraine, Baltics rebuke Macron for suggesting ‘security guarantees’ for Russia

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    • World needs security guarantees from Russia, says Zelenskiy aide
    • Baltic states also reject Macron’s suggestion
    • Senior U.S. diplomat says Putin not sincere about peace talks

    Dec 4 (Reuters) – French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion the West should consider Russia’s need for security guarantees if Moscow agrees to talks to end the war in Ukraine unleashed a storm of criticism in Kyiv and its Baltic allies over the weekend.

    In an interview with French TV station TF1, Macron said that Europe needs to prepare its future security architecture and also think “how to give guarantees to Russia the day it returns to the negotiating table.” read more

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s top aide, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that it is the world that needs security guarantees from Russia, not the other way around.

    “Civilized world needs ‘security guarantees’ from barbaric intentions of post-Putin Russia,” Podolyak said on Twitter on Sunday.

    Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, said a “denunclearized and demilitarized” Russia would be the best guarantee of peace not only for Ukraine, but also for the world.

    “Someone wants to provide security guarantees to a terrorist and killer state?” Danilov wrote on Twitter.

    “Instead of Nuremberg – to sign an agreement with Russia and shake hands?”

    The trials in Nuremberg to prosecute Nazi war criminals after World War Two are seen today seen as the forerunners of tribunals like the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Moscow denies allegations its forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine.

    After several rounds of talks earlier in the war, Kyiv and Moscow have not met to negotiate the end of the conflict for months. Kyiv says peace talks are only possible if Russia halts its attacks and withdraws from all Ukrainian territories it seized.

    But the Kremlin said the West must recognise Moscow’s declared annexation in September of “new territories” before any talks with Putin. read more

    Macron last week held talks with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington on the war in Ukraine. Biden said afterwards that there were no conditions for U.S.-Russia discussions about ending the conflict. read more

    U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, however, said Putin’s insistence on recognition of the declared annexations indicated he was not serious about peace talks.

    “Diplomacy is obviously everyone’s objective but you have to have a willing partner,” she told reporters after meeting Zelenskiy in Kyiv on the weekend. “And it’s very clear … that Putin is not sincere or ready for that.”

    Zelenskiy has not commented on Macron’s suggestion.

    “IT WILL NOT FLY”

    Macron’s suggestion of security guarantees for Moscow has also spurred criticism in some Baltic countries that border Russia and see it as growing threat.

    Former Finnish prime minister Alexander Stubb said he “fundamentally” disagreed with Macron.

    “The only security guarantees we should focus on are essentially non-Russian,” he said on his Twitter account. “Russia needs first to guarantee that it does not attack others.”

    Lithuania’s former foreign minister, Linas Linkevicus, said that Russia has security guarantees as long as it does not “attack, annex or occupy” its neighbours.

    “If anyone wants to create a new security architecture that allows a terrorist state to continue its methods of intimidation, they should think again, it will (n)ot fly,” Linkevicus said on Twitter.

    In Kyiv, David Arakhamia, a lawmaker and member of Ukraine’s negotiation team with Russia when negotiations were taking place, said Ukraine is ready to provide Russia with security guarantees as long as it met four conditions.

    “For this it is enough: leave the territory of our country, pay reparations, punish all war criminals; voluntarily surrender nuclear weapons,” Arakhamia said on the Telegram messaging app.

    “After that, we are ready to sit down at the negotiation table and talk about security guarantees.”

    Macron and Zelenskiy have held frequent talks during the more than nine months of war, and Zelenskiy has thanked the French president for trying to find diplomatic solutions while also rejecting Macron’s suggestions that Kyiv could be ready to compromise.

    In May, Macron was also widely criticised for saying Russia should not be humiliated so that when the fighting stops in Ukraine a diplomatic solution can be found. read more

    Writing in Melbourne by Lidia Kelly; Editing by Stephen Coates

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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