Tag: Rochester

NHC is making changes to the cone of uncertainty this year
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will experiment with some tweaks to the way the cone of uncertainty is presented this hurricane season.
What You Need To Know

Inland tropical watches and warnings will be shown on an experimental map with the cone

The cone will still be present over the watches and warnings

The usage of the cone and alerts will not change
Instead of just displaying watches and warnings at the coast, the NHC will distribute display all tropical watches and warnings through inland areas in a new graphic on their website.

“The absence of displaying those warnings inadvertently gives the impression that it’s all clear in the more inland locations,” says Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, Jamie Rhome.

Here is a look at what the new experimental cone will look like.

For reference, here is what the traditional cone of uncertainty looks like.

Studies have shown that it is common for people to misinterpret the cone of uncertainty.

For instance, according to a study by Colorado State University, people perceive the widening of the cone toward the end of the forecast period to mean that the storm will be getting bigger.

In reality, widening the cone is just communicating a greater degree of uncertainty as to where the center of the storm will pass. It is independent of the size or intensity of the storm.

The NHC hopes to reduce misinterpretation with a new look to the cone, and this new experimental graphic is a step in that direction.

“I suspect we will have to make other changes in the realm of hurricane risk communication as time marches on,” says Rhome. “we want to move people off the cone and onto the hazards.”

Other changes could come to the cone in the future, but the National Hurricane Center wants feedback from professionals and the public before going any further.

“That’s what this experimentation is about, to start a discussion and open up a forum and a venue for people to talk to us about what changes need to be made in hurricane risk communication,” says Rhome.

Even with slight changes to how the cone is displayed, the meaning of the cone of uncertainty, along with tropical watches and warnings, will not change.

The traditional, operational cone of uncertainty will continue to be distributed by the NHC. The new, experimental, graphic will be available on the National Hurricane Center Website.

2024 storm names

Here’s a look at the list of names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson

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February 1, 2024
Surviving avalanches: What you need to know
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This time of year, snowboarders and skiers head to some of the most popular snow summits across the country. However, snowy natural disasters called avalanches can become a concern.
What You Need To Know

An avalanche is a mass of snow moving down a slope

Someone in the victim’s party triggers 90% of avalanche incidents

The natural disaster kills about 30 people in the U.S. yearly
According to the National Weather Service, an avalanche occurs when there’s a rapid flow of snow down a hill or mountainside.

Avalanches happen suddenly and “occur during or just after snowstorms on slopes between 30 and 45 degrees.”

Also, look out for Avalanche Watches and Warnings from the Weather Service.

The NWS says 90% of avalanche incidents become triggered by someone in the victim’s party.

They also kill about 30 people a year in the U.S.

So far this year, avalanches have killed four people; in California, Wyoming, Idaho and Colorado.

Placer County sheriff vehicles are parked near the ski lift at Palisades Tahoe where avalanche occurred on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024, in Tahoe, Calif. (AP Photo/Andy Barron)

There are resources people can use to get avalanche safety training and spot potential avalanches.

One resource there is the NWS and Avalanche.org.

Here’s a breakout of avalanche safety tips and warning signs.

Remember, stay vigilant and safe during avalanches and be aware of the signs when you’re on the slopes.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Keith Bryant

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January 28, 2024
The lightning capital of the U.S. stayed in Florida in 2023
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After Four Corners, Florida–in the Kissimmee area–was crowned the lightning capital of the United States in 2022, the most frequently struck place moved a little south in 2023.
What You Need To Know

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale area saw the most lightning flashes in 2023

Over 242 million flashes were recorded across the U.S. in 2023

The global lightning count was over two billion
The Finnish company Vaisala tracks lightning strikes globally every year using a lightning detection network.

They found that the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area had the most total lightning (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) of any metro in the U.S. with 120,998 flashes in 2023.

Florida led the country in lightning density (lightning events per square kilometer), followed by Mississippi and Louisiana.

Texas had the most total lightning of any state, tallying over 42 million flashes.

June 14 was the most lightning-active day in the U.S. in 2023, with more than 3.6 million flashes.

While somewhere in Florida is often the lightning capital of the United States, it is not the most struck place in the world.

Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela is considered the lightning capital of the world, with an average of 233 lightning strikes per square kilometer per year, according to NASA.

Global lightning density in 2023. (Vaisala/Xweather)

You can see Vaisala’s full report here.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Kyle Hanson

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January 27, 2024
Wagering with an edge: How weather affects sports betting
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Sports betting has become increasingly popular over recent years, and bettors are always trying to find an edge.

For outdoor sporting events, weather is one of the biggest variables, and RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has spent the past 10 years combining his weather knowledge and passion for sports to help bettors.
What You Need To Know

Weather can heavily influence outdoor sporting events

Knowing how weather affects a game can help bettors

Altitude is the biggest advantage for a home team
From football, baseball and golf, to NASCAR, tennis, soccer and even the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, if it’s outdoors and sports-related, he’s made a forecast for it.

After earning a master’s degree in meteorology and working on TV for 10 years, Kevin Roth saw that there was a need in the fantasy sports world for real forecasts provided by an actual meteorologist, not just a low-quality automated forecast.

He provides forecasts and live weather updates for outdoor sporting events, and breaks down how the weather could affect the game with the lens of a fantasy sports player or a sports bettor.

In football, fantasy sports players get an entire week to digest the latest forecast and can decide who to start until kickoff. Sports bettors don’t get the same luxury if they want to maximize their profit, since betting lines and totals are fluid.

Football

You might think that ‘cold weather teams’ like Kansas City, Buffalo or Green Bay have a built-in advantage during the playoffs when the calendar flips to January, and the weather could offer bitter cold temperatures, high winds and snow.

Earlier this month on Jan. 13, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Miami Dolphins during the AFC Super Wild Card Weekend in a frigid matchup. The kickoff temperature was -4 degrees with a wind chill of -20 degrees, making it the fourth coldest game in NFL history.

But Roth says he’s a firm believer that cold or snowy weather doesn’t inherently favor a ‘cold weather team’ over a ‘warm weather team,’ like Tampa Bay or Miami.

“The cold, wind and snow impacts all humans the same in a physiological way. Patrick Mahomes [Kansas City Chiefs quarterback] will get the same cold fingers in those conditions that Tua [Miami Dolphins quarterback] would.”

In football (and other sports), the weather can really make its presence known with high winds. Kicking a field goal or throwing a deep ball is much more difficult with a brisk wind in your face, versus when it’s at your back.

Baseball

According to Roth, baseball is the most interesting sport for weather effects since every single factor (rain, wind, temperature, humidity, elevation) plays a significant role in the expected outcome.

Since there are 162 games a year, and hundreds of pitches thrown each game, there is a large sample size to help isolate variables and determine how weather affects the game. Baseball is the only major team sport where every ballpark has unique dimensions, so the impacts can vary depending on where ballplayers play the game.

Roth says “in Chicago’s Wrigley Field, a southerly wind creates a jet stream effect that helps balls sail over the fence for home runs. A 15 mph wind blowing out in Wrigley can increase home run probabilities by over 50%. If you were to take that same wind, blowing out at 15 mph, to San Francisco’s Oracle Park, the wind only accounts for a 5% increase in home runs, as that stadium was specifically designed to minimize the impact of those winds.”

Temperature and humidity is a variable that applies to all ballparks more equally. Most of the season (April through October) athletes play in the thick of the warm summer months. Since hotter air is less dense, offensive players score more runs during the dog days of summer since the air is thin. Routine pop-ups can carry further, sometimes becoming a home run.

In the northern climates, teams there play those early and late season games in temperatures between 30 to 40 degrees. Roth says “the cold, dense air mass will limit how far a well-hit ball will travel, and what would have been a home run in 70 degree weather suddenly becomes a fly out.”

Best “home field advantage?”

If you’re a sports fan, you’ve heard of home field advantage. Oddsmakers and sports books will factor in 2 to 3 extra points for the home team in football games when creating lines, determining the favorite and underdog.

Some factors baked into home field advantage include the crowd, home stadium familiarity, potential officiating bias and the lack of travel, sometimes visiting teams travel across multiple time zones. But how does the weather factor in?

Roth says you have to consider elevation, since it’s the exception to the ‘this impacts everyone equally rule.’ “Our bodies take time to adjust to elevation, so any visiting team thrust into a game at elevation (i.e. – Denver) is immediately at a disadvantage when compared to players whose bodies are already acclimated to the thinner air at elevation.”

Denver Broncos defensive end Matt Henningsen (91) leaves the field during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)

Roth says that Colorado teams have the best home field advantage, since the elevation change and thin air can cause fatigue in more active sports, and change the way a pitch breaks in baseball.

What’s next?

Roth says he’s focusing on “quantitative over qualitative.” He’s been compiling weather data on every outdoor baseball game since 2000 and the statistical results (runs, home runs, ERA, strikeouts, etc) of those games.

The large sample size has allowed him to isolate weather as an individual variable, and the next step he plans is taking that data and applying it to the gambling odds or totals.

Instead of saying “it’s hot and winds are blowing out, that’s great for hitting,” he can definitively say “in 72 games with similar heat and wind in this ballpark, we’ve seen a 48% increase in home runs and a 20% increase to runs scored compared to average.”

You can check out RotoGrinders Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth’s forecasts here:

Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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January 26, 2024
Look for the Full Wolf Moon this week
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The Full Wolf Moon rises high in our January sky this week.
What You Need To Know

The January full moon’s common nickname is the Wolf Moon

It’ll turn truly full on Thursday

The moon rises high during the winter, similar to the summer sun

The constellation Gemini appears near this full moon
The moon will become fullest at 12:54 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 25. While it’ll be below our horizon then, don’t worry–it appears full for a couple nights before and after the time it’s truly full.

Native Americans’ names for this full moon include the Great Spirit Moon, Ice Moon and the wonderfully descriptive Someone’s Ears are Freezing Moon.

If those cold weather themes have you yearning for summer, this little nugget may help. Because the full moon resides roughly opposite the sun, it rises high in the winter since the sun’s highest point is relatively low. So, when you look at this month’s full moon, its path is similar to what the sun’s will be in July.

Simulated sky the evening of Thursday, Jan. 25. (Stellarium)

While you’re out, you’ll have no trouble finding a couple other night sights. The full moon will appear near the stars Pollux and Castor, which are the heads of the twins of the constellation Gemini. And toward the north, you’ll see the Big Dipper and Little Dipper.

Since it’s still early in the year, now’s a good time to make note of 2024’s astronomical events.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts

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January 24, 2024
Decoding tree rings: Unveiling the hidden clues of climatic history
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We’ve all heard it before. Tree rings can tell us the age of a tree, but did you know they can also tell us the weather?
What You Need To Know

Tree rings can tell us the age of the tree

They can also help us determine what years were colder, warmer, drier and wetter

Studying tree rings can help us predict future climate
How to prep for research

There are a couple of things to consider before scientists survey trees.

First, they must find a site where humans haven’t affected the area with logging or other research.

Then they pick a group of the same species of trees to take samples from. Having numerous samples from the same area can provide a more reliable look at climate similarities over the years.

Christine Buhl, a forest health specialist for the Oregon Department of Forestry, uses an increment borer to core a dead western red cedar at Magness Memorial Tree Farm in Sherwood, Ore., Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023. (AP Photo/Amanda Loman)

How scientists take samples

Much like coring an apple, scientists core the trees with an instrument called an increment borer.

This allows them to take a thin sample that shows the rings from the outside to the center of the tree.

This method does not harm the tree, and the tree can heal quickly after it’s cored.

After coring the tree, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that the scientists return to the lab, sand the samples so every ring is perfectly visible, and place them upright for a microscope to begin research.

What the rings tell us

Counting the rings on the sample can tell us the trees’ age, but it can also tell us what weather patterns were like each year.

NOAA explains, “trees will have narrow rings during cold periods and wider rings for warm periods.”

They also say “trees that depend heavily on moisture during the growing season will have wider rings during rainy periods and narrower rings during dry periods.”

(Pixabay)

How this helps us

Studying tree rings can help scientists determine what climate was like for each year the tree was alive.

Because trees can live for hundreds to thousands of years, we can see what the climate was like well before record-keeping began for most in the 1800s.

Determining climate through tree rings over the past thousands of years can help reveal weather patterns and predict what climate we might see in the future.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 23, 2024
Warming temperatures and gender disparities in sea turtles
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Few species have their sex determined by temperatures, but for sea turtles it’s almost a certainty.

However, this natural occurrence could become a biological disadvantage as global temperatures continue to rise, leading to larger gender disparities.
What You Need To Know

A sea turtle’s gender is determined by the temperatures in its surrounding environment

Higher nest temperatures produce females, while cooler temperatures yield males

A warming planet will likely upset gender diversity in the sea turtle population
Temperature-driven gender reveals

The differences in reproduction between humans and sea turtles extend beyond the obvious ‘one lays eggs while the other does not.’ One key difference between the two is how sex is determined.

For humans and many other species, gender is determined from the by sex chromosomes when fertilization occurs. But this is not the case with sea turtles and other reptiles, given that they lack sex chromosomes.

For them, the gender of their offspring is determined after fertilization, and the deciding factor all depends on temperature. This kind of sexual determination is called temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD).

Building their nest onshore, a female will lay their eggs in the sand, where they will continue to develop before hatching about two months later.

A baby Olive Ridley sea turtle crawls to the sea past discarded turtle eggs at Ostional beach on the northern Pacific coast of Costa Rica, Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2007. (AP Photo/Kent Gilbert)

During that time, the temperature of the surrounding sand can activate an enzyme, aromatase, in the embryos responsible for converting sex hormones, and determining gender.

Higher temperatures stimulate more aromatase activity. This yields an increase in female hormones and thus, the baby sea turtle will hatch as a female.

On the contrary, cooler temperatures limits aromatase activity. This promotes male hormones to dominate, and so the sea turtles that hatch will be male.

(AP Photo/Cody Jackson)

According to NOAA, sand temperatures of 88.8 degrees or more will yield female sea turtles, while sand temperatures of 81.86 degrees or less will produce males.

Eggs incubated in sand temperatures falling between these two thresholds will cause a mix of male and female sea turtles.

A warming world and gender inequality

Following the world’s warmest year on record in 2023, rising global temperatures will likely upset gender diversity within sea turtle populations in the years to come.

(NOAA)

Researchers from Florida Atlantic University Marine Lab announced warmer nest temperatures in recent years have produced more female hatchlings, some years even recorded no male offspring at all.

As the male sea turtle populations continue to decrease, growing disparities in gender could ultimately endanger the species’ existence in the future.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shawnie Caslin

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January 22, 2024
Where does the rain go? Understanding river basins and watersheds
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Have you ever wondered where all the rain goes? It goes to the same place as snowmelt when temperatures thaw out in the spring.

It’s called a river basin, or a watershed, and whether you know it, all the land we stand on is part of a river basin.
What You Need To Know

Rain and snowmelt goes into river basins

A river basin channels runoff into larger bodies of water

Some water soaks into the ground
Some water will seep into the shallow ground, moving through the soil and helping keep grass, trees and plants healthy. It can even travel deeper down, recharging groundwater aquifers.

Once the ground becomes saturated, a river basin collects runoff and excess water and drains it into a larger body of water.

Depending on where in the basin, it can move into small bodies of water like creeks, streams and rivers, and eventually to outflow points into larger bodies of water like a reservoir, bay or the ocean.

In the U.S., most rain runoff eventually finds its way into the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, or the Great Lakes.

This map below from Grasshopper Geography shows all the permanent and temporary streams and rivers of the Lower 48 in the U.S., divided into catchment areas.

River basins of the United States. (Robert Szucs/www.grasshoppergeography.com)

The Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (highlighted in pink) is one of the largest in the world. It includes parts or all of 31 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces, collecting precipitation for 41% of the contiguous United States.

The Mississippi River’s water level closely correlates to precipitation totals across the basin. Persistent, heavy rainfall or excessive snowmelt can cause high water levels and put sections of the river into flood stage, threatening communities along the river.

Conversely, severe drought across the Mississippi River basin can lead to low water levels, which can disrupt the shipping industry and expose some oddities from the bottom of the river.

Snowmelt

When snow melts, the water goes to the same place that rain would go. Generally, 10 to 12 inches of snowfall produces 1 inch of liquid water.

In the western U.S. mountains, environmental and utility experts work to conserve that water and replenish lakes and reservoirs that shrink or dry up during times of drought. In the Central U.S., most of the snowmelt ends up in the Mississippi River.

The annual snowpack in mountain ranges can help forecast potential flooding concerns when temperatures warm up. If there’s a large snowpack, rapid snowmelt can cause flooding.

Below, you can see a video from Dec. 2023, after heavy rainfall and snowmelt from warm temperatures combined and led to significant flooding and high waters in Fairfax, Vt.

It’s more common during the spring, but also possible if temperatures climb well above normal during winter.

Snowmelt can be just as important as rain for areas when it comes to recharging groundwater and supplying freshwater for people and animals. Less snowfall means less snowmelt and less water that could be resourceful for us.

Our team of meteorologists dive deep into the science of weather and break down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Reid Lybarger

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January 21, 2024
Arctic blast brings the chill across the U.S. this weekend
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We have one more day of this arctic chill across the parts of the United States.

The jackets, scarves, and beanies won’t be needed from Midwest to the Northeast after Sunday.
What You Need To Know

Cold air covers the central and eastern U.S. through the weekend

Dozens of record cold temperatures have been broken

This kind of cold can be dangerous
The arctic air wraps up from the Northeast and Southeast Sunday morning.

Parts of Florida will wake up to freezing temperatures on Sunday.

Highs will reach 15 to 25 degrees below the average for numerous spots, although this arctic surge won’t be as powerful as the previous one.

And by Monday, temperatures should be closer to normal for this time of the year.

What we saw

The arctic air has been enough to tie or break dozens of record cold temperatures over the past few days–not just morning lows, but afternoon highs.

Sunday morning saw temperatures as low as -20 to -40 degrees in northern and northeast Montana. Saco, Mont., dropped to -51 degrees, and subzero lows reached as far south as Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and parts of Indiana, according to Zack Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in College Park, Maryland.

The Associated Press reports the winter weather over the past two weeks is blamed for at least 45 deaths. That includes 14 in Tennessee alone, where 9 inches of snow fell around Nashville. Three people in Oregon were electrocuted by a live power line that fell on a car, and five people in Seattle died from exposure to cold.

Brutal cold earlier in the week made Monday’s Iowa caucuses the coldest ever, and heavy lake-effect snow and intense wind gusts forced the Steelers-Bills NFL game to be postponed from its original kickoff. A storm system on the leading edge of the cold dropped accumulating snow as far south as Arkansas and northern Mississippi, whereas much as six inches fell.

This week’s arctic waves have easily been the coldest of the season so far. Check your local forecast to see how cold you’ll get, and take a look at the stories below to be ready for the bitter blast.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 20, 2024
The coldest time of the year largely varies on where you live
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As winter progresses across the Northern Hemisphere, cold outbreaks are becoming more common. And for many across the nation, the coldest day of the year is likely on the way to your city.
What You Need To Know

The coldest day of the year largely varies if you live east or west of the Rocky Mountains

Most across the eastern United States find their coldest time of the year in late January

The western United States typically is coldest in December

NOAA has found that the coldest day has been shifting later into winter
As we move deeper into the heart of winter, the coldest part of the year is upon us across the Midwest and Northeast. Back in 2022, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an interactive map that details when the coldest day of the year is for your city.

In the analysis conducted by NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), climate experts found that this chilly milestone is now happening later than it used to.

Check out the map below. It reveals when, on average, the coldest day of the year hits based on data from 1991 to 2020. From the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, temperatures hit rock bottom around mid-to-late January.

According to their report, the study found several interesting regional differences across the nation. But the most notable observation was the separation between dates the Rocky Mountains bring forth.

That’s because temperatures out west of the Rockies are largely influenced by the parade of storm systems moving ashore from the Pacific Ocean. These storm systems determine the temperature influences, and thus temperatures more closely align with the seasonal solar cycle if you live west of the Rocky Mountains.

While a few pockets out west have seen their date for the coldest day of the year slide later into the season, these locations are typically found in deep valleys, where calm winds and the bountiful snow cover can cause a temperature inversion—where the temperature at the surface is colder than the temperature above the ground.

But for those located east of the Rockies, the analysis found that the date for the coldest day of the year has slid later into the season.

While the West largely finds their temperature fluctuations based on storm systems, the eastern U.S. finds their temperature regime largely dictated by modified snow cover to the north.

Believe it or not, snowfall in Canada drives the temperature forecast for the eastern half of the country. That’s because as snow falls and blankets the ground in Canada, that snowfall at the surface helps cool temperatures.

As Canada’s snow cover grows, it reflects more and more solar radiation away from the ground and back out to space, keeping temperatures colder than they could be.

As storm systems develop and move eastward across Canada, the wind flow can then push this colder air mass at the surface southward into the United States. This is what’s responsible for those cold air outbreaks across the northern tier of the country.

Now, keep in mind, these dates are calculated by averaging temperatures over a 30-year period, from 1991 to 2020. The actual coldest day may happen in your area earlier or later than what the map above suggests.

NOAA’s analysis points out an interesting shift, however: Compared to climatological averages from 1981 to 2010, the coldest day is now occurring three to six days later or more in many places east of the Rockies.

The newer 30-year averages ending in 2020 also show more warming early in the winter in the eastern U.S., according to NOAA. This lines up with findings from Climate Central, which revealed that winters in the United States are warming faster than any other season east of the Rockies and in Alaska.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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January 20, 2024
‘Sudden stratospheric warming’ can drive arctic outbreaks. Here’s how
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You’ve almost certainly heard of the polar vortex. But what about “sudden stratospheric warming,” a weather term that’s started making the rounds on social media? They’re related to one another, and they can play a big role in winter weather.
What You Need To Know

Not all our weather happens near the ground

Atmospheric waves sometimes break on the polar vortex, making it weaken

A weaker polar vortex sometimes makes air far aloft descend and quickly warm

These events can cause arctic outbreaks
The polar vortex

First, a quick review of the polar vortex. The one we care about lives in the stratosphere, the second-lowest layer of the atmosphere. The stratosphere is above where most of our weather happens, starting about 6 miles above the ground and reaching up about 31 miles.

That polar vortex forms in the fall as polar nights get longer and temperatures turn colder. In the spring, it breaks down as daylight returns and temperatures become more balanced.

Polar temperatures in the stratosphere are very cold in the winter, but turn relatively warm in the summer. (NOAA)

But something else can make it break down during the winter, waves in the atmosphere. That’s where sudden stratospheric warming comes in.

Sudden stratospheric warming

The atmosphere has waves, just like the ocean. After all, it pretty much is an ocean… just made of air, not salt water. These waves rise up and down, and sometimes they’ll break and crash on the polar vortex, weakening it.

What happens if the vortex weakens enough? Its winds can reverse direction, causing cold air in the stratosphere to descend and quickly warm. And that’s where the name “sudden stratospheric warming” comes from.

“Sudden” doesn’t mean it happens out of the blue, completely unexpectedly. And “warming” is relative, since we’re still talking temperatures that are way below zero.

Polar vortex temperature centered on 2022, when a sudden stratospheric warming event happened. (NOAA)

Cold air outbreaks

Forecasters try to get a sense of whether sudden stratospheric warming might happen because it can give clues about weather patterns a few weeks away.

Instead of a stable swirl keeping the arctic air bottled up, the polar vortex is knocked off-kilter, coming off the North Pole or splitting into a couple pieces. The frigid air mass sometimes spills southward, although it doesn’t always dump into North America. It can just as easily hit Europe or Russia.

Major sudden stratospheric warming events happen once every winter or two on average, according to NOAA. These can cause big cold air outbreaks, although not every cold wave can lead to sudden stratospheric warming.

It also turns out that El Niño can cause sudden stratospheric warming events–and polar vortex breakdowns–because of how it influences the pattern of waves in the jet stream in the late winter.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts

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January 19, 2024
Why we don’t officially name winter storms
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Every spring, the World Meteorological Organization releases a list of names for hurricanes that season.

But why don’t we name any other storm, particularly winter storms?
What You Need To Know

The U.S. does not officially name winter storms

Other countries name non-tropical storms year round

The National Weather Service has no plans for naming winter storms
History of naming storms

We have unofficially named winter storms throughout history.

Storms such as The Great Blizzard of 1888, a storm that brought feet of snow to the Northeast and killed over 400 people, or a more recent storm in 2010, Snowmageddon, that crippled the mid-Atlantic with snow.

But naming winter storms didn’t become regular until 2012, when a television weather company did so. At the time, this decision divided the weather community. Some saw the practice as more of a publicity stunt than a way to save lives, as they did not consult any official weather agency.

After 5 years of The Weather Channel naming winter storms, an ad hoc committee of the American Meteorological Society conducted a study and agreed that there was no evidence to support that the naming of storms increases the safety of the public.

The flip side

Even though the U.S. does not name storms other than tropical cyclones, the UK Met Office started officially naming storms in 2015. They not only name winter storms, but powerful storms that form throughout the year that cause substantial impact.

Each area in the UK has different criteria for naming storms, but the fun part is that the public can suggest names for the upcoming year.

Taking a stand

However, the National Weather Service still stands on the side of not naming winter storms, but what is the reason?

I talked to Maureen O’Leary, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service, and she said, “unlike tropical storms, winter storms are diverse with conditions that evolve throughout the storm’s life. That is why our forecasts, watches and warnings focus on specific impacts such as wind conditions, snowfall, ice, temperature, visibility and other impacts.

“Winter storm conditions can vary widely and over a very large area, from community to community. It’s critical that people understand how a storm will impact them, in their area, or where they are going.”

She also said there are no plans to consider naming winter storms.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Shelly Lindblade

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January 15, 2024
This year’s Iowa caucuses will be the coldest ever
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Iowans are used to cold weather, but the arctic blast that’s spread across much of the country is the biggest one to happen at the same time as the caucuses.
What You Need To Know

The coldest Iowa caucuses before this year were in 2004

Most have had highs in the 30s and 40s

This year, wind chills will be in the -20s throughout Iowa on caucus night
The Iowa caucuses began in 1972. That year, the high in Des Moines was 25 degrees and scattered snow fell around the state.

Since then, the warmest caucus day was 49 degrees on Feb. 20, 1984. The coldest, in 2004, had a high of just 16 degrees with wind chills in the single digits.

That’ll seem almost tropical compared to what’s coming on Monday.

Highs throughout Iowa will struggle to even get close to 0 degrees–and that’s just the actual temperature. Caucus-goers are going to face frigid wind chills in the -20s while they’re heading to and from their local precincts in the evening.

Here’s a snapshot of the conditions people had to brave through to caucus.

If there’s any good weather news in the Hawkeye State, it’s that they’ll have dry weather on Monday. That’ll be a welcome change after two powerful winter storms socked parts of the state with heavy snow in the days before. The bad weather forced Republican candidates to cancel some events.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts

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January 15, 2024
Your astronomical calendar for 2024
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We’re heading into another year, and there are so many astronomical events we can look forward to.
What You Need To Know

A rare total solar eclipse will occur in April

We have many meteor showers happening throughout the year

Mercury will be our most-viewed planet

We’ll also see Neptune, Jupiter and Saturn
Check out what to expect for each month. The second half of the year will bring plenty of fun shows.

January

Quadrantids meteor shower: We started the year with a bang. This meteor shower produced 40 meteors per hour at its peak on the night of the 3rd. Don’t worry if you missed it. We have plenty more meteor showers this year.

(AP Photo/Francisco Seco)

View of Mercury: Our first 2024 view of Mercury occurred on the 12th. We’ll be able to view this planet six more times this year!

February

February is quiet, only offering a new moon on the 9th and a full moon on the 24th.

March

First day of spring, also called the vernal equinox in the northern hemisphere (the autumnal equinox in the southern hemisphere) will occur on the 19th this year at 11:06 p.m. ET. The Sun will pass directly over the equator, and we’ll have nearly equal amounts of day and night across the planet.

(Spectrum News/Lacy Leonardi)

Mercury in sight: our second view of Mercury will happen on the 24th. Look for it low in the western sky just after sunset.

Penumbral lunar eclipse: occurring when the moon passes through Earth’s penumbra. This eclipse will take place on the 25th and be visible through all the U.S.

April

Total solar eclipse: this rare event will occur on the 8th and be visible in the eastern U.S. The Moon will completely block the Sun, letting us see the outer ring of the Sun. You don’t want to miss it because it won’t happen again until 2045.

(Pixabay)

Lyrids meteor shower: this is a decent shower that produces about 20 meteors per hour at its peak. It will run from the 16th to the 25th but will peak on the night of the 22nd. Unfortunately, the full moon will block out many meteors, but you should still be able to catch a glimpse of the brightest ones.

May

Eta Aquarids meteor shower: this decent meteor shower will produce 30 meteors per hour in the Northern Hemisphere at its peak on the 6th. The new moon means we’ll have a dark sky and an excellent show.

Mercury returns: our third viewing of Mercury this year will occur on the 9th. You can see it in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

June

First day of summer: this year, the summer solstice will occur at 4:50 p.m. ET on June 20, marking the first day of summer for the northern hemisphere. The North Pole will tilt toward the Sun, and the Sun will travel over the Tropic of Cancer.

July

Another view of Mercury: our fourth view of Mercury will happen on the 22nd. Look for it low in the western sky just after sunset.

(Pixabay)

Delta Aquarids meteor shower: this shower will produce 20 meteors per hour at its peak on the night of the 28th. The moon will block out a lot of the meteors, but you will still catch a few bright ones.

August

Perseids meteor shower: one of the best meteor showers of the year, you’ll see 60 meteors per hour at its peak on the night of the 12th. The good news is the Moon will set shortly after midnight, leaving us with dark skies for the show.

Full moon and blue moon: we’ll get this full moon and blue moon on the 19th. It’s called a blue moon because it’s the third of four full moons of the season.

September

View of Mercury: our fifth view of Mercury will be on the 5th. Look for it low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

See Saturn’s rings: Saturn should be visible all night on the 8th. You’ll see a glimpse of its rings and brightest moons with a medium or large telescope.

Full moon and supermoon: this full moon and supermoon will occur on the 18th. Don’t miss it, as the moon will look larger and brighter.

Partial lunar eclipse: occurring when the Moon passes through the penumbra and partially through the umbra. We’ll see this partial lunar eclipse on the 18th, and most of the U.S. will be able to view it.

(Photo by Anthony Leone)

The Blue Giant: we’ll get a view of Neptune all night on the 20th. Unfortunately, because of its distance, it’ll only look like a tiny blue dot in the sky unless you have an extremely powerful telescope.

First day of fall: the autumnal equinox will occur at 8:43 a.m. ET on the 22nd. We’ll have nearly equal amounts of day and night across the world as the Sun shines over the equator, marking the first day of fall in the northern hemisphere.

October

Draconids meteor shower: practice patient with this shower on the 7th, as it only produces 10 meteors per hour. Unlike other showers, you’ll want to view this one in the early evening.

Another full moon and supermoon: this full moon and supermoon will happen on the 17th. It’ll be the second supermoon of three in 2024.

Orionids meteor shower: this shower will peak on the night of the 21st, bringing us 20 meteors per hour. The waning gibbous moon will block fainter meteors, but you should still be able to catch some brighter ones.

November

Taurids meteor shower: a very minor shower. This show will only produce 5-10 meteors per hour at its peak on the night of the 4h. The first quarter moon will block most of the meteors, but you’ll still see a few after midnight.

Full moon and supermoon: the last of the supermoons of 2024, you can catch this full, big and bright moon on the 15th.

Mercury’s back: Mercury loves to show off, as this will be our sixth view of the planet on the 16th.

Uranus: Uranus appears on the 17th and you’ll be able to view it all night. Unfortunately, if you don’t have an extremely power telescope, you’ll only see a tiny dot in the sky.

(NASA/JPL)

Leonids meteor shower: another minor shower, this one will produce 15 meteors per hour at its peak on the night of the 17th. The best time to view this show will be during the early morning of the 18th, but the nearly full moon will block out most of the meteors.

December

Jupiter and its moons: Jupiter will appear on the 7th and be visible all night. You’ll be able to see Jupiter’s cloud bands with a medium telescope. Even with just binoculars, you’ll be able to see its four largest moons.

Geminids meteor shower: welcome to the best meteor shower of every year. Peaking from Dec. 13-14, this shower will produce 120 multicolored meteors per hour. Unfortunately, an almost full moon means we won’t see a lot of the meteors, but we should still be able to catch a good amount. Bundle up and head outside after midnight for the best viewing time.

First day of winter: on the 21st, the winter solstice will occur at 4:19 a.m. ET, marking the first day of winter. The South Pole will tilt toward the Sun, and the Sun will be in its southernmost position in the sky.

(Photo by Sean Organ)

Ursids meteor shower: the last shower of the year will be the Ursids meteor shower on Dec. 21-22. It is minor, producing 5-10 meteors per hour, and the waning gibbous moon will block out many of the meteors.

One last view of Mercury: Mercury was the first planet we saw this year, and it’ll be the last. You’ll be able to view it on the 25th low in the eastern sky just before sunrise.

Viewing these events

If you’re trying to view a planet, it might become a little tricky differentiating it from a star. Caballero-Nieves, assistant professor in Astronomy at FL Institute of Tech., explains “planets are typically brighter than stars. Stars also twinkle. This is called scintillation. Stars will change a little in brightness and even color, and planets do not.”

“Finally, if you look at a planet over several nights or months, you will notice that it moves with respect to the stars near it. That’s where the Greeks gave the planets their names, which means wanderer.”

If you want to view all these heavenly events this year, head to a dark area away from city lights.

It also doesn’t hurt to buy a telescope, either. What kind of telescope should you buy?

Caballero-Nieves suggests that “You should first decide what you are interested in observing. Reflecting telescopes use mirrors and are more compact, but reflecting telescopes that use lenses can be more affordable.”

“Smaller telescopes are great for looking at bright things like the Moon, planets and bright stars. Larger telescopes are better for observing faint things like galaxies, nebulas and comets.”

Hopefully, you will see some wonderful views this year!

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 13, 2024
Weather Explained: Understanding the wind chill

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Learn how wind can affect the outside temperature.

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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 12, 2024
2023 saw a record 28 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters
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The U.S. dealt with 28 disasters that each cost over $1 billion last year, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. That’s the most in one year since records began in 1980.
What You Need To Know

The U.S. had 28 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2023

19 of them were severe storms and tornadoes

The 28 disasters cost an estimated $93 billion

Last year broke the record of 22 such events in 2020
The average number of billion-dollar disasters since 1980 is 8.5 per year. However, from 2019 to 2023, the average was 20.4 events, including the previous record of 22 events in 2020.

NOAA adjusts for the Consumer Price Index to account for inflation.

Here’s when and where 2023’s billion-dollar disasters happened.

The majority were from severe storms and tornadoes, which made up 19 of them. The rest included four floods, two tropical cyclones (including Hurricane Idalia), one wildfire, one winter storm and one drought/heat wave.

The year may end up with one more, depending on the tally from the mid-December East Coast storm.

In total, NCEI estimates 2023’s billion-dollar disasters cost $93.0 billion, above the average of $60.5 billion. They also say these also contributed to at least 492 deaths.

NOAA’s information on 2023’s costly disasters came the same day that Europe’s climate agency reported the global average temperature last year set a record that was 2.66 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The Lower 48 had its fifth-hottest year on record, according to NOAA.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Justin Gehrts

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January 11, 2024
How rainbow clouds dazzle the skies
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Clouds come in many shapes and forms, but did you know there are rainbow clouds?
What You Need To Know

Rainbow clouds form when light scatters through tiny ice crystals and creates a cascade of colors

These types of clouds form in altocumulus, cirrocumulus, lenticular and cirrus clouds

High-altitude clouds, the uniform distribution of ice crystals, sunlight and a sun that is high in the sky is the recipe of iridescence
According to NOAA, “a rainbow cloud can occur because of something called cloud iridescence.”

You’ll see this dazzling phenomena in altocumulus, cirrocumulus, lenticular and cirrus clouds.

These rainbow clouds, or as they’re scientifically known, ‘nacreous clouds’, form when small ice crystal scatter the sun’s light. Once the light hits the droplets, it creates a vibrant hue of colors.

Check out this video of rainbow clouds see above Aylesford, United Kingdom in late December.

Cloud iridescence is a rare phenomenon. Clouds need to be thin and have a lot of water droplets that are about the same size.

Iridescence is a combination of high-altitude clouds, the uniform distribution of ice crystals, sunlight and a sun that is high in the sky.

(Photo by: CameraLeon/WEATHER TRAKER/TMX)

Nacreous clouds are rare sites to see. According to the World Meteorological Organization, you can see these dazzling sites in Alaska, Canada and parts of Scandinavia and the Arctic.

Plus, the clouds form in colder climates because the ice crystals in the clouds need to be chilled to freezing or below.

Whenever you see rainbow or nacreous clouds, enjoy these color clouds and experiences.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Keith Bryant

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January 8, 2024
Look at incredible video of tornado spinning through Fort Lauderdale

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A tornado ripped through parts of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on Saturday, Jan. 6.

Look at this incredible video of the tornado in the area.

The video was shot by one of our Spectrum News photographers who was in the area covering the Buffalo Bills game against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday Jan. 7.

Ft. Lauderdale city officials on X (formerly known as Twitter) said the twister was spotted near Las Olas and the Intracoastal.

The twister was a part of a storm system bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of South Florida.

In another video, you can see sparks fly as the tornado spins through the area.

Plus, the tornado touched down shortly after the National Weather Service in Miami issued a Tornado Warning for the area.

There were no reports of injuries, just scattered debris and some power outages.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.

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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 7, 2024
Here are your top 5 astronomical events for 2024
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Every year, avid sky gazers book their calendar full of events that are sure to have you looking up. And 2024 promises to bring a series of events you don’t want to miss.
What You Need To Know

Several noteworthy events are possible in the skies above North America in 2024

A coast-to-coast solar eclipse will be found in April

A beautiful meteor shower will dazzle in August

A new comet could light the skies in October
North America is set for dozens of potential sky gazing events during 2024. From a pair of eclipses to a brand new comet and several meteor showers, here are the top five astronomical events for North America in 2024.

1. America’s total solar eclipse

The most anticipated event of the year across the nation will come in April when the Great American Solar Eclipse will streak across the United States.

On April 8, 2024, the nation will be greeted by the moon passing right in front of our sun, creating a breathtaking experience for those who can reach totality. While the entire nation will enjoy the eclipse, only a few select states will get the joys of totality.

Totality occurs when the moon blocks out the entire sun from view, leading to a darker sky resembling if it were dawn or dusk.

A look at the path of the total solar eclipse.

Just prior to totality, another phenomenon known as Baily’s beads will occur. These beads look like distinct balls of light found just on the edge of the moon’s surface as it passes in front of the last bit of the sun.

Baily’s beads are caused by the sun’s light shining through the craters on the surface of the moon and will flicker on and off as the sun passes through the valleys of the moon’s surface.

Totality will be enjoyed by states like Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, New York and Maine. Totality will last for nearly four and a half minutes in cities across Texas—the longest in the nation.

2. America’s penumbral lunar eclipse

Just two weeks before the total solar eclipse, the nation will be greeted by an eclipse of a different kind. On March 24-25, 2024, the nation will observe a penumbral lunar eclipse.

Often, during a total lunar eclipse, the moon passes through the inner shadow of Earth, known as Earth’s umbra. During that passage, the moon darkens noticeably, and can produce a unique nighttime effect.

But during a penumbral lunar eclipse, the moon stays out of the inner shadow and only breaches Earth’s outer shadow, known as the penumbra.

During a lunar eclipse, the moon passes by Earth’s shadow.

This leads to a less deep and typically less dramatic eclipse. Sometimes it can even be mistaken as a normal Full Moon event versus an actual eclipse.

Regardless, this eclipse will be found nationwide. The best time to view the eclipse will be around maximum eclipse time, when one half of the moon will appear slightly darker than the other half.

3. Planets align

A favorite of sky gazers alike, planetary alignment is expected in late June across the nation. This celestial alignment will feature the planets Jupiter, Mars and Saturn along with our Moon.

During this alignment, you can expect to find all the planets and our moon situated near one another in the eastern sky during sunrise.

If you are heading east during your morning commute, you may notice all these celestial bodies shining brightly next to the moon, resembling stars.

4. Perseid meteor shower

Often called the most reliable meteor shower of the year, the Perseid meteor shower will happen in the heart of August. The peak of the shower will occur on the nights of Aug. 12 and 13.

The Perseid shower is caused by Earth’s movement through a debris cloud left behind from the comet Swift-Tuttle, a comet last passed by Earth in 1992.

Two Perseid meteors, centre and lower left, streak across the sky during the annual Perseid meteor shower above a forest on the outskirts of Madrid, in the early hours of Monday, July 28, 2014. (AP Photo/Andres Kudacki)

2024 is likely to be a decent year for this shower, as the moon will only be illuminated 50%. This should allow for between 200 to 350 meteors an hour if you can get to a place with no light pollution. For those in cities, expect that number to be closer to 40 to 60 meteors an hour.

5. A new comet passes by

While there is a bit of a debate about how big this event may be, October will bring a new comet to the skies of Earth.

Discovered back in Feb. 2023, Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will make its closest pass to Earth’s Northern Hemisphere during October. The comet will be roughly 44 million miles away from our planet, or roughly 100 million miles closer than our closest neighbor, Mars.

The comet will appear too close to the sun to be seen in early October, but it will get into a better position for observation around and after Oct. 14.

Comet Hale–Bopp. (NASA)

Scientists are still debating how visible the comet could be on Earth, but some scientists believe this could be a very bright passing, outshining some of the brightest stars in our sky during the peak passage.

A few scientists believe it could be the brightest comet in our skies since Comet Hyakutake in 1996 or Comet Hale-Bopp in 1997. Comet Hale-Bopp was the most observed comet in human history.

If these hypotheses prove to be correct, Comet C/2023 A3 could feature a very prominent tail that observers could see with their own eye.

Our team of meteorologists dives deep into the science of weather and breaks down timely weather data and information. To view more weather and climate stories, check out our weather blogs section.
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Meteorologist Zach Covey

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January 6, 2024
Weather Explained: Why bridges freeze before roads

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It all has to do with the flow of cold air.

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Spectrum News Weather Staff

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January 5, 2024