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  • Tesla stock slips after it reports 462,890 total deliveries during the third quarter

    Tesla stock slips after it reports 462,890 total deliveries during the third quarter

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    A worker unloads a new Tesla Model 3 from a truck at a logistics drop zone in Seattle, Washington, US, on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. 

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Tesla posted its third-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report on Wednesday. The stock fell about 3.5% in premarket trading after the report.

    Here are the key numbers:

    Total deliveries Q3 2024: 462,890

    Total production Q3 2024: 469,796

    Analysts were expecting deliveries of 463,310 in the period ending Sept. 30, according to estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount.

    Deliveries are not defined in Tesla’s financial disclosures, but are the closest approximation to units sold reported by the company. It’s one of the most closely-watched metrics on Wall Street.

    In the year-ago period, Tesla reported 435,059 deliveries and production of 430,488 EVs. Last quarter, the company reported 443,956 deliveries, and production of 410,831 vehicles.

    Tesla is facing increased competitive pressure, especially in China, from companies like BYD and Geely, along with a new generation of automakers, including Li Auto and Nio.

    In the U.S., EV competitors like Rivian are maturing, while legacy automakers Ford and General Motors are selling more electric vehicles after walking back more ambitious goals for electrification.

    GM this week reported a roughly 60% increase in EV sales for the third quarter from a year earlier. Still, its electric business is tiny compared to Tesla’s, with just 32,100 units sold in the latest period, accounting for 4.9% of the company’s total sales.

    Ford plans to report results on Wednesday.

    Tesla hasn’t issued specific guidance for 2024 deliveries, but executives have said they expect a lower delivery growth rate this year versus last despite the company having added a new vehicle, the angular stainless steel Cybertruck, to their lineup.

    The company also said on Wednesday that it deployed 6.9 GWh of energy storage products in the quarter.

    Shares of Tesla climbed 32% in the third quarter, erasing their loss for the year in the process. The stock is now up almost 4% in 2024, trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 19%.

    Tesla’s brand has been under pressure in the U.S. due in part to the antics of CEO Elon Musk, who, in addition to endorsing former President Donald Trump, has shared what the White House called “racist hate,” and false claims about immigrants and election fraud on X, his social media app.

    But Tesla still sells more battery electric vehicles in the U.S. than any other automaker, with Hyundai a distant second.

    In its third-quarter earnings report later this month, investors will be particularly focused on profit margins.

    Tesla has continued to offer attractive financing options and an array of incentives to drive sales volume in recent months in China as well as in the U.S. Prior to earnings, Tesla will host a marketing event on Oct. 10, and is expected to show off the design of “dedicated robotaxi.”

    Musk has promised Tesla self-driving cars for years, but the company has yet to deliver. Meanwhile competitors like Waymo and Pony.ai have begun operating commercial robotaxi services.

    WATCH: Tesla is a place where investors can find safety, says RBC’s Tom Narayan

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  • Ford turns ‘dirty’ business into a profit driver. GM and Stellantis are taking notice

    Ford turns ‘dirty’ business into a profit driver. GM and Stellantis are taking notice

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    2023 Ford Super Duty F-350 Limited

    Ford

    DETROIT — A once “dirty” word, and business, in the automotive industry has become a multibillion-dollar battleground for U.S. automakers, led by Ford Motor.

    The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker has turned its fleet business, which includes sales to commercial, government and rental customers, into an earnings powerhouse. And Ford’s crosstown rivals General Motors and Chrysler parent Stellantis have taken notice, restructuring their operations as well.

    “There’s much more of an emphasis now on profitability and how fleet can help that,” said Mark Hazel, S&P Global Mobility associate director of commercial vehicle reporting. “[Automakers] are looking at how they strategically go about this. It’s been a very targeted approach with how they deal with fleets.”

    Many fleet sales, especially daily rentals, have historically been viewed as a negative for auto companies. They are traditionally less profitable than sales to retail customers and are used by automakers at times as a dumping ground to unload excess vehicle inventories and boost sales.

    But Ford has proven that’s not always the case by breaking out financial results for its “Ford Pro” fleet business. The operations have raked in about $18.7 billion in adjusted earnings and $184.5 billion in revenue since 2021.

    Such results have led Wall Street to praise the business, as analysts have called it a “hidden gem” and Ford’s “Ferrari,” referring to the highly profitable Italian sports car manufacturer.

    “No other company has Ford Pro. We intend to fully press that advantage,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said July 24 during the company’s second-quarter earnings call, in which Ford Pro was the dominant performer.

    Fleet sales typically account for 18% to 20% of annual industrywide U.S. light-duty vehicle sales, which exclude some larger trucks and vans, according to J.D. Power.

    Part of the opportunity in fleet sales comes from the aging vehicles on U.S. roadways. The average age of the 25 million fleet and commercial vehicles on American roads was 17.5 years last year, according to S&P. That compares with light-duty passenger vehicles at 12.4 years in 2023.

    While commercial sales, which are viewed as the best fleet sales, are estimated to be slightly lower this year compared with 2023, both GM and Stellantis have recently redesigned and doubled down on such operations. However, neither reports such results out separately.

    “Breaking apart the fleet channel, we see that Commercial sales have been the weakest. And zooming in further, there are just two [original equipment manufacturers] that appear especially challenged: STLA and, to a lesser extent, GM,” Wolfe Research said in an investor note Wednesday.

    Meanwhile, Ford’s commercial volumes have increased a “strong” 7% this year compared with 2023, Wolfe said.

    While fleet sales data isn’t as available as retail, Wolfe Research estimates Ford is by far the leader in such earnings at a forecast of $9.5 billion this year. That compares with North American operations at GM at $5.5 billion and Stellantis around $3.5 billion, Wolfe estimates.

    S&P Global Mobility reports Ford has been the fleet leader for some time. Since 2021, Ford’s market share of new fleet vehicle registrations (categorized by businesses with 10 or more vehicles weighing under 26,000 pounds) has been about 30%. GM, meanwhile, had around 21%-22% during that time, and Stellantis about 9%.

    GM, citing third-party data, claims it outsold Ford last year in a segment of fleet sales: commercial vehicles sold exclusively to businesses (with five or more vehicles) and not individual buyers.

    Ford, meanwhile, said it counts “all customers who register their full-size, Class 1-7 truck or van under their business,” not just those with five or more vehicles.

    Ford claims to lead sales of commercial vehicles, categorized as Class 1-7 trucks and vans, with a roughly 43% share of U.S. registrations through May of this year. That’s up 2.3 percentage points compared with a year earlier, the company said.

    Ford Pro

    The Ford Pro business is led by sales of the automaker’s Super Duty trucks, which are part of its F-Series truck lineup with the Ford F-150, and range from large pickups to commercial trucks and chassis cabs.

    It also covers sales of Transit vans in North America and Europe, all sales of the Ranger midsize pickup in Europe, and service parts, accessories and services for commercial, government and rental customers.

    Ford Super Duty trucks are seen at the Kentucky Truck assembly plant in Louisville, Kentucky, on April 27, 2023.

    Joe White | Reuters

    But automakers, including Ford, also see fleet operations as a key driver in other ways, including for electric vehicle sales, as well as reoccurring revenue options such as software and logistical services.

    “This revenue has gross margins of 50-plus-percent which drives significant operating leverage and improved capital efficiency,” Farley said during the quarterly call. “The major part of this new software business is actually Ford Pro.”

    Ford is aiming to achieve $1 billion in sales of software and services in 2025, led by its fleet and commercial business.

    “Ford Pro is core to Ford, and there is potential upside on volumes as well as in software and service,” BofA’s John Murphy said Thursday in an investor note. “On software, Ford Pro accounts for ~80% of Ford’s software subscriptions with an attach rate of only 12%, which is projected to grow to 35%+ over the next few years.”

    Ram, GM retool

    As Ford touts its fleet business, its closest rivals have amped up their operations.

    Chrysler parent Stellantis is relaunching its “Ram Professional” unit this year with goals of achieving record profitability in 2025 and, eventually, becoming the No. 1 seller of light-duty commercial vehicles, which exclude some larger vehicles.

    Christine Feuell, CEO of Stellantis’ Ram brand, declined to disclose a time frame for achieving that target but said the automaker believes it can do so after completely revamping its operations to focus on better mainstreaming operations for customers and earnings growth through sales and new services.

    “It’s a highly profitable business. Not only on the product side, but on the services side,” she told CNBC during a media event last week. “Software and connected services are really a significant growth opportunity for us as well.

    “We’re a little bit behind Ford in launching those services, but we definitely expect to see similar kinds of growth and revenues generated from those connected services.”

    Ram makes up about 80% of Stellantis’ U.S. fleet and commercial business. It has a new or revamped lineup of trucks and vans coming to market, plus a host of connected and telematics products to assist fleet customers. It also increased the availability of financing and lending for commercial customers.

    “This year truly begins our commercial offensive,” Ken Kayser, vice president of Stellantis North American commercial vehicle operations, said during the media event. “2024 is a foundational year for our brand, as we look to build momentum into 2025.”

    GM isn’t sitting idle either. It has revamped its fleet and commercial business. It launched “GM Envolve” last year, its overhauled fleet and commercial business focused on fleet sales, digital telematics and logistics for commercial customers.

    Sandor Piszar, vice president of GM Envolve in North America, said the Detroit automaker views the business as a competitive advantage not just to sell vehicles but to create reoccurring revenue and relationships with businesses.

    2021 GMC Sierra HD pickup

    GM

    GM Envolve, formerly known as GM Fleet, reorganized the automaker’s business to be a one-stop shop for fleet customers — from sales and financing to fleet management, logistics and maintenance.

    “GM Envolve is a critically important piece of General Motors business. It’s a profitable business,” he told CNBC earlier this year. “We think it is a competitive advantage in the approach we’re taking in this consultative approach of a single point of contact and coordinating the full portfolio that General Motors has to offer.”

    GM and Stellantis declined to disclose the earnings and profitability of their fleet businesses.

    EV goals

    GM Envolve includes the company’s EV commercial business BrightDrop, which was folded back into the automaker last year instead of it acting as a subsidiary. It didn’t accomplish the growth GM had expected, but EVs have an opening for automakers’ fleet and commercial sales.

    “BrightDrop is a great opportunity for General Motors and for GM Envolve,” Piszar said, citing all-electric vans specifically for last-mile deliveries as well as small local businesses. “There’s a lot of use cases and as we ramp up production and get customers to try the vehicle that’s a key piece of our model.”

    Unlike retail customers, many fleet and commercial customers have predefined routes or schedules that could accommodate EVs well because they drive locally in a region and could charge overnight when electricity costs are lower.

    Brightdrop EV600 van

    Source: Brightdrop

    S&P Global reports EV startup Rivian Automotive led the U.S. in all-electric cargo van registrations last year, roughly doubling Ford, its closest competitor, at No. 2.

    While the upfront investment is high, automakers have argued the eventual payback could be worthwhile for some businesses.

    All three of the legacy Detroit automakers are touting such advantages to their fleet customers, while still offering traditional vehicles with internal combustion engines.

    Stellantis and Ford also have started highlighting their portfolios of different powertrains such as hybrids and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as adoption of EVs has not occurred as quickly as many had expected.

    Ford last month announced plans valued at about $3 billion to expand Super Duty production, including to “electrify” Super Duty trucks.

    “We’ve gone to, on all of our commercial vehicles, a multi-energy platform so we will offer customers the choice that we think no other competitor will have,” Farley said during the earnings call. “We believe we will be a first mover, if not the first mover, in multi-energy Super Duty.”

    CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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  • CNBC Daily Open: Micron slides, Amazon’s $2 trillion

    CNBC Daily Open: Micron slides, Amazon’s $2 trillion

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    A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on March 4, 2024 in New York City. 

    Angela Weiss | Afp | Getty Images

    This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

    What you need to know today

    Clinging on 
    The
    S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just about finished the session in positive territory. The Nasdaq Composite, on course for an 18.6% gain in the first six months of the year, rose 0.49%. After trading mostly in negative territory, Nvidia made a small gain following the previous session’s 7% surge. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose as investors parse comments from Fed officials and await key inflation data due Friday. U.S. oil prices rose amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. 

    Micron slides 
    Shares of Micron fell almost 8% in extended trading on Wednesday as its revenue forecast failed to top analysts’ expectations. The computer memory and storage maker expects revenue of $7.6 billion in the current quarter, in line with estimates. Micron’s shares have doubled in the past year as its most advanced memory is needed for AI graphics processing units. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said the company’s AI-oriented products were likely to increase in price and its data center business grew 50% on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

    $2,000,000,000,000
    Amazon‘s market capitalization surpassed $2 trillion for the first time on Wednesday, joining the ranks of tech giants like Apple and Microsoft. The surge in megacap tech stocks has been driven by investor excitement around generative AI. Amazon’s stock has risen 26% this year, outpacing the Nasdaq’s 18% increase. The stock rose 3.9% on Wednesday. Separately, CNBC’s Annie Palmer reports Amazon plans to launch a discount store in bid to fend off Temu and Shein. 

    Southwest cuts guidance
    Southwest Airlines cut its second-quarter revenue forecast due to difficulties adapting its revenue management to recent booking trends. Despite the revised outlook, the airline still expects record quarterly operating revenue. Activist investor Elliott Management reiterated calls for leadership changes, “Southwest is led by a team that has proven unable to adapt to the modern airline industry.” Higher costs and increased capacity have impacted fares and profits across the industry, while competitors like Delta and United have benefited from the return of international travel. Southwest shares fell 4% before recovering to end the session just 0.2% lower.

    Asian stocks fall, yen weakens
    Japan’s export-heavy Nikkei 225 and the broad-based Topix fell as the yen weakened to a 38-year low against the U.S. dollar, raising the prospect of intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned the country was “deeply concerned about FX impact on economy,” per Reuters. Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led the rest of the Asia-Pacific region lower, tumbling 2%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.58% and South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.37%

    [PRO] Investing in India
    India’s unexpected election results haven’t dampened Causeway Capital Management’s bullish outlook. Although portfolio manager Arjun Jayaraman predicts modest short-term returns for the BSE Sensex index, he suggests ETFs that could benefit from higher returns.  

    The bottom line

    There was a surge of activity in the auto industry that may have been overshadowed by Volkswagen's $5 billion investment in the loss-making EV maker Rivian. While VW makes solid cars, its electric vehicles are plagued with glitchy software. As CNBC's Sophie Kiderlin notes this investment will take years to yield returns. Analysts, however, are wary of the current "EV winter" marked by tepid demand and increased competition. Despite these challenges, Rivian's stock surged 23%, reflecting investor optimism.

    Elsewhere in the industry, Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving car unit, expanded its robotaxi service to all users in San Francisco. Meanwhile, General Motors's Cruise autonomous vehicle division appointed former Amazon and Microsoft executive Marc Whitten as its new CEO. This leadership change follows a series of collisions that led to investigations and the suspension of Cruise's license in California, heightening public skepticism about driverless technology.

    While Waymo is steadily rolling out its services and Cruise is restarting its operations, Tesla has yet to introduce its long-promised robotaxi. Elon Musk's projections for a 2020 launch and fully autonomous driving by 2018 have yet to materialize. Nevertheless, Musk envisions Tesla as a potential $7 trillion robotaxi enterprise. The unveiling of Tesla's robotaxi on Aug. 8 will be closely watched to gauge its competitive edge.

    Rivian shareholder Amazon joined the exclusive $2 trillion market cap club, alongside Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft. This milestone comes as Amazon aggressively cuts costs.

    While enthusiasm for AI remains high, Wall Street experienced a more measured session as investors sought to lock in profits from the Nvidia-driven surge. Despite the current optimism, strategists caution that the S&P 500 might face a correction over the summer. CNBC's Sarah Min explores the factors behind Citi's projections and a series of recent upgrades.

    CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Brian Evans, Alex Sherman, Samantha Subin, Annie Palmer, Ece Yildirim, Michael Wayland, Sophie Kiderlin, Spencer Kimball, Leslie Josephs, Sarah Min, Sheila Chiang and Lim Hui Jie contributed to this report.

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  • Mercedes-Benz workers in Alabama vote against UAW union membership

    Mercedes-Benz workers in Alabama vote against UAW union membership

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    United Auto Workers (UAW) members and supporters on a picket line outside the ZF Chassis Systems plant in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, US, on Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023.

    Andi Rice | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Mercedes-Benz workers in Alabama have voted against union representation by the United Auto Workers, the National Labor Relations Board said Friday.

    The results are a blow to the UAW’s organizing efforts a month after the Detroit union won an organizing drive of roughly 4,330 Volkswagen plant workers in Tennessee. Voting started Monday and ended Friday.

    Union organizing failed with 56% of the vote, or 2,642 workers, casting ballots against the UAW, according to the NLRB, which oversaw the election. More than 90% of the 5,075 eligible Mercedes-Benz workers voted in the election, according to the results.

    The NLRB said 51 ballots were challenged and not counted, but they aren’t determinative to the outcome of the election. There were five void ballots. 

    The union and company have five business days to file objections to the election, including any alleged interference, according to the NLRB. If no objections are filed, the election result will be certified, and the union will have to wait one year to file for a union election for a similar bargaining unit.

    Mercedes-Benz in a statement said company officials “look forward to continuing to work directly with our Team Members to ensure [Mercedes-Benz US International] is not only their employer of choice, but a place they would recommend to friends and family.”

    United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain (right) and UAW Secretary-Treasurer Margaret Mock (left) lead a march outside Stellantis’ Ram 1500 plant in Sterling Heights, Michigan after the union called a strike at the plant on Oct. 23, 2023.

    Michael Wayland / CNBC

    The loss is expected to hurt the UAW in an unprecedented organizing drive launched late last year of 13 non-union automakers in the U.S. after securing record contracts with Detroit automakers Ford Motor, General Motors and Stellantis. Those agreements included significant wage increase, reinstatement of cost-of-living adjustments and other benefits.

    UAW President Shawn Fain said while the Mercedes-Benz vote was obviously not the result the union wanted, it was a valiant effort, adding the vote “isn’t a failure” but a “bump in the road.”

    “While this loss stings, I’ll tell you this, we’re going to keep our heads up, keep our heads up high. These workers have nothing to do but be proud in the effort they put forth and what they’ve done,” he said Friday during a media conference. “We fought the good fight and we’re going to continue on, continue forward. Ultimately, these workers here are going to win.”

    The Mercedes-Benz vote was expected to be more challenging for the union than the Volkswagen plant in Tennessee, where the union had already established a presence after two failed organizing drives in the past decade and where it faced less opposition from the automaker.

    Stephen Silvia, author of “The UAW’s Southern Gamble: Organizing Workers at Foreign-Owned Vehicle Plants,” noted Mercedes-Benz replaced the plant’s leader weeks ahead of the election. He said companies routinely do this, promising workers changes at their facilities in an effort to stave of organizing.

    “Companies do anti-union campaigns because they can be effective, and I think this one was effective,” said Silvia, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C. “A common piece of an anti-union campaign is firing the plant manager … That seems to have persuaded enough of the workers to vote against the union.”

    Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, who was one of six Republican governors to condemn the union’s organizing drive, hailed the outcome of the vote.

    “The workers in Vance have spoken, and they have spoken clearly! Alabama is not Michigan, and we are not the Sweet Home to the UAW. We urge the UAW to respect the results of this secret ballot election,” she said.

    Workers at Mercedes-Benz’s Tuscaloosa plant, located about 60 miles southwest of Birmingham, have produced more than 4 million vehicles since the plant opened in 1997, including 295,000 vehicles in 2023, according to the plant’s website.

    The Alabama plant currently produces vehicles such as the gas-powered GLE and GLS Maybach SUVs as well as the all-electric EQS and EQE SUVs.

    The NLRB last week said it continues to process and investigate open unfair labor practice charges filed by the UAW against automakers, including six unfair labor practice charges against Mercedes-Benz since March.

    Fain said Friday the union would continue to move forward with those charges. He declined to say whether the union plans to challenge the election results, saying he’d “leave that” to the union’s legal team.

    The charges allege that Mercedes-Benz has “disciplined employees for discussing unionization at work, prohibited distribution of union materials and paraphernalia, surveilled employees, discharged union supporters, forced employees to attend captive audience meetings, and made statements suggesting that union activity is futile,” the NLRB said.

    The union has filed other charges against automakers Honda, Hyundai, Lucid, Rivian, Tesla and Toyota, according to the NLRB.

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  • Redditors bank millions of dollars as a group on stock’s opening day

    Redditors bank millions of dollars as a group on stock’s opening day

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    Reddit power users who participated in the company’s IPO made millions of dollars as a group in profits after the stock’s big jump in its first day on the market.

    While Redditors interviewed by CNBC ahead of the offering said they were skipping out on the IPO due to concerns about the business and the company’s often fraught relationship with moderators, Chief Financial Officer Drew Vollero told Axios that tens of thousands of users ended up purchasing shares.

    The stock jumped 48% in its debut on Thursday, closing at $50.44, up from the $34 offer price.

    Certain Redditors — along with company insiders and their friends and family members — were able to join the initial public offering through the company’s directed-shared program, or DSP. It’s a model that was used by companies like Airbnb, Rivian and Doximity to reward their loyal users and customers.

    Of the 22 million shares that Reddit and existing stakeholders sold in the offering, some 1.76 million were made available through the DSP, equal to 8% of the deal. The shares were offered based on a user’s reputation, measured through what the company calls karma.

    Because Reddit’s DSP doesn’t have a lockup period, participants could immediately sell shares, unlike company insiders and early investors, who have to wait about 180 days. The stock shot up as high as $57.80 shortly after the IPO, and some users said they sold after the early rally.

    One Redditor with the username LearnedButt claimed on the r/RedditIPO forum to have made a profit of $20,000 after the initial pop. The user said they sold the stock at $54 a share.

    “Even if it goes to 100/share, I’m cool and feel not an ounce of FOMO,” LearnedButt wrote, using the acronym for fear of missing out. “This is 20K I didn’t have an hour ago.”

    In a reply to LearnedButt, Reddit user friskevision wrote, “Although I didn’t invest as much as you, I did make a quick $1,500. Reddit finally pays me back for those years of using it. :)”

    Meanwhile, the user blackberrydoughnuts expressed regret for selling too late after the shares dropped below $50.

    “I sold my 1000 shares at $48 and I’m sad I didn’t sell earlier when it was at $54!” blackberrydoughnuts wrote. “I really should have!”

    Redditors used E-Trade to purchase shares via the DSP, which was only available to U.S. residents.

    Reddit user Reepicheepee made a small investment in the shares.

     “Just sold 15 at $50,” Reepicheepee said. “I saw the price dropping and decided to cash in. Small net of $250, though! I’ll continue watching the price throughout the day to see if I made the right call …”

    Though some Redditors were out to make a quick buck, others like follysurfer plan on becoming long-term Reddit shareholders.

    “Got 20 shares,” follysurfer wrote. “Guess I’ll hold them for 20yrs and see what happens.”

    Stock chatter on Reddit is a familiar subject and one of the reasons the site is so well known.

    The Wallstreetbets subreddit also became known known for its role in helping spawn the 2021 meme stock boom and the meteoric rise of stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment.

    Reddit CEO Steve Huffman acknowledged the importance of Wallstreetbets in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, brushing aside concerns that the vocal community could cause any problems on Reddit’s first day of trading.

    “That’s the beautiful thing about Reddit, is that they tell it like it is,” Huffman said. “But you have to remember they’re doing that on Reddit. It’s a platform they love, it’s their home on the internet.”

    Redditor erjo5055 said in the Wallstreetbets forum, “Guess using this site for nearly 10 years has finally paid off. I’m sad I didn’t buy more shares, was going to buy 2x as many.”

    The Reddit user Galactic responded, “High-5, fellow DSP dumper,” adding, “Never thought this site would make me money, but here we are!”

    One commenter on Wallstreetbets, PatrickBateman-AP, had a word of caution for anyone who hasn’t yet sold.

    “It will absolutely plummet tomorrow,” PatrickBateman-AP wrote.

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  • Reddit pops as much as 70% in NYSE debut after selling shares at top of range

    Reddit pops as much as 70% in NYSE debut after selling shares at top of range

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    Reddit shares jumped as much as 70% in their debut on Thursday in the first initial public offering for a major social media company since Pinterest hit the market in 2019.

    The 19-year-old website that hosts millions of online forums priced its IPO on Wednesday at $34 a share, the top of the expected range. Reddit and selling shareholders raised about $750 million from the offering, with the company collecting about $519 million.

    The stock opened at $47 and reached a high of $57.80. At that price, the company had a market cap of about $10.9 billion. Reddit shares then dropped to $48.64 roughly a half hour after they began trading, giving the company a market cap of about $7.9 billion.

    Trading under the ticker symbol “RDDT,” Reddit is testing investor appetite for new tech stocks after an extended dry spell for IPOs. Since the peak of the technology boom in late 2021, hardly any venture-backed tech companies have gone public and those that have — like Instacart and Klaviyo last year — have underwhelmed. On Wednesday, data center hardware company Astera Labs made its public market debut on Nasdaq and saw its shares soar 72%, underscoring investor excitement over businesses tied to the surge in artificial intelligence.

    At its IPO price, Reddit was valued at about $6.5 billion, a haircut from the company’s private market valuation of $10 billion in 2021, which was a boom year for the tech industry. The mood changed in 2022, as rising interest rates and soaring inflation pushed investors out of high-risk assets. Startups responded by conducting layoffs, trimming their valuations and shifting their focus to profit over growth.

    Reddit’s annual sales for 2023 rose 20% to $804 million from $666.7 million a year earlier, the company detailed in its prospectus. The company recorded a net loss of $90.8 million last year, narrower than its loss of $158.6 million in 2022.

    Based on its revenue over the past four quarters, Reddit’s market cap at IPO gave it a price-to-sales ratio of about 8. Alphabet trades for 6.1 times revenue, Meta has a multiple of 9.7, Pinterest’s sits at 7.5 and Snap trades for 3.9 times sales, according to FactSet.

    In addition to those companies, Reddit also counts X, Discord, Wikipedia and Amazon’s Twitch streaming service as competitors in its prospectus.

    Reddit is betting that data licensing could become a major source of revenue, and said in its filing that it’s entered “certain data licensing arrangements with an aggregate contract value of $203.0 million and terms ranging from two to three years.” This year, Reddit said it plans to recognize roughly $66.4 million in revenue as part of its data licensing deals.

    Google has also entered into an expanded partnership with Reddit, allowing the search giant to obtain more access to Reddit data to train AI models and improve its products.

    Reddit revealed on March 15 that the Federal Trade Commission is conducting a nonpublic inquiry “focused on our sale, licensing, or sharing of user-generated content with third parties to train AI models.” Reddit said it was “not surprised that the FTC has expressed interest” in the company’s data licensing practices related to AI, and that it doesn’t believe that it has “engaged in any unfair or deceptive trade practice.”

    Reddit was founded in 2005 by technology entrepreneurs Alexis Ohanian and Steve Huffman, the company’s CEO. Existing stakeholders, including Huffman, sold a combined 6.7 million shares in the IPO.

    As part of the IPO, Reddit gave some of its top moderators and users, known as Redditors, a chance to buy stock through a directed-share program. Companies like Airbnb, Doximity and Rivian have used similar programs to reward their power users and customers.

    “I hope they believe in Reddit and support Reddit,” Huffman told CNBC in an interview on Thursday. “But the goal is just to get them in the deal. Just like any professional investor.”

    Redditors have expressed skepticism about the IPO, both because of the company’s financials and its often troubled relationship with moderators. Huffman said he recognizes that reality and acknowledged the controversial subreddit Wallstreetbets, which helped spawn the surge in meme stocks like GameStop.

    “That’s the beautiful thing about Reddit, is that they tell it like it is,” Huffman said. “But you have to remember they’re doing that on Reddit. It’s a platform they love, it’s their home on the internet.”

    OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is one of Reddit’s major shareholders along with Tencent and Advance Magazine Publishers, the parent company of publishing giant Condé Nast. Altman’s stake in the company was worth over $400 million before the stock began trading. Altman led a $50 million funding round into Reddit in 2014 and was a member of its board from 2015 through 2022.

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  • Reddit prices IPO at $34 per share in first major social media offering since 2019

    Reddit prices IPO at $34 per share in first major social media offering since 2019

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    In this photo illustration a Reddit logo is seen displayed on a smartphone.

    Mateusz Slodkowski | Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    Reddit, the 19-year-old website that hosts millions of online forums, priced its IPO on Wednesday at $34 a share, the top of the expected range.

    The offering brought in $519 million, according to a press release, and values the company at close to $6.5 billion. Reddit had planned to price the deal at $31 to $34 a share.

    Reddit’s public market debut on Thursday, under ticker symbol “RDDT,” will be the first for a major social media company since Pinterest’s debut in 2019 and one of the very few venture-backed tech deals of the past two years. Reddit sold 15.28 million shares in the offering, while existing shareholders sold another 6.72 million.

    The company is taking a haircut from its private market valuation of $10 billion in 2021 at the peak of the tech boom. Soaring inflation and rising interest rates pushed investors out of risky assets in 2022, eventually forcing startups to downsize, slash their valuations and focus on profit over growth.

    On Wednesday, data center hardware company Astera Labs went public, and saw its shares skyrocket 72%, as investors flock to anything involving artificial intelligence. However, the IPO market has been in an extended dry spell for more than two years, with Instacart, Klaviyo and Arm Holdings among the few tech companies to hold offerings over that stretch.

    Reddit’s core business of online advertising faces competition from industry giants like Alphabet and Meta. The company also counts Snap, X, Pinterest, Discord, Wikipedia and Amazon’s Twitch streaming service as competitors, according to its prospectus.

    Revenue increased 20% last year to $804 from $666.7 million in 2022. Its net loss in 2023 was $90.8 million, marking an improvement from the $158.6 million net loss it recorded the previous year.

    The company has said in filings that data licensing could become a big money maker, and that it plans to recognize about $66.4 million in such deals in 2024. The company recently entered an expanded partnership with Google, allowing the search giant more access to Reddit data to train AI models and other tasks.

    Last week, Reddit said the Federal Trade Commission sent a letter to the company inquiring about its data-licensing practices.

    As part of the initial public offering, Reddit gave some of its leading moderators and users, known as Redditors, a chance to buy stock through a directed-share program. It’s a model that was previously used by Airbnb, Doximity and Rivian to reward their power users and customers.

    Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

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  • Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Rivian, Apple, AMD, Amazon, Biogen, DataDog, Bumble & more

    Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Rivian, Apple, AMD, Amazon, Biogen, DataDog, Bumble & more

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  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Meta, Warby Parker, McCormick and more

    Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Meta, Warby Parker, McCormick and more

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    McCormick spices are displayed on a shelf at a supermarket on March 28, 2023 in San Anselmo, California. Spice Maker McCormick reported better-than-expected first quarter earnings with revenues of $1.57 billion compared to $1.52 billion one year ago. 

    Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.

    Warby Parker — The eyewear maker popped 6% after Evercore ISI upgraded shares to outperform from in line. The firm said 2024 should be a “fundamental inflection year” for Warby Parker.

    Trex — Shares of the wood-alternative decking manufacturer declined by 3.9% even after Goldman Sachs initiated Trex with a buy rating. The bank said the company is “well-positioned” to drive growth and profitability.

    Eli Lilly, Point Biopharma — Eli Lilly shares slumped 3.7% after the pharmaceutical giant announced plans to purchase cancer therapy developer Point Biopharma for $12.50 a share in cash, or about $1.4 billion. Point Biopharma shares surged more than 85%.

    Rivian Automotive — Shares of the electric vehicle maker lost 5%, even though Rivian’s deliveries topped estimates and showed sustained demand. Morgan Stanley earlier reiterated the company as overweight, saying the Rivian’s FY23 production guide of 52,000 units supports the firm’s delivery forecast of 48,000 units. Concerns remain about softening demand for EVs in the U.S. due to higher borrowing costs.

    Airbnb — The short-term vacation rental company fell more than 5% after KeyBanc downgraded the stock to sector weight from overweight. KeyBanc said that AirBnb’s margins will be squeezed as post-pandemic travel demand eases.

    McCormick — Shares of the spice maker slipped 9% after McCormick reported earnings of 65 cents per share, excluding items, for the recent quarter on revenues of $1.68 billion. That came in roughly in line with the earning-per-share of 65 cents and $1.7 billion in revenue expected by analysts polled by StreetAccount.

    Meta — Shares of the social media behemoth slipped more than 2% following news that the company is considering charging European Union Facebook and Instagram users a $14 monthly fee to access both platforms without ads.

    Fiverr International — Shares gained 2% after Roth MKM upgraded the company to buy from neutral. The Wall Street firm is “incremental positive” on the stock, citing a freelancer survey that supports Fiverr’s leading position among gig workers.

    Ally Financial — The home and auto company lost 2.5%. Earlier in the day, Evercore ISI added a tactical outperform rating on the stock, noting it appears oversold near term. However, Evercore ISI reiterated a long-term in-line rating on Ally and trimmed its 12-month price target.

    — CNBC’s Alex Harring, Brian Evans, Samantha Subin and Jesse Pound contributed reporting.

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  • What a stressed commercial real estate market means for these exposed bank stocks

    What a stressed commercial real estate market means for these exposed bank stocks

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    Collin Madden, founding partner of GEM Real Estate Partners, walks through empty office space in a building they own that is up for sale in the South Lake Union neighborhood in Seattle, Washington, May 14, 2021.

    Karen Ducey | Reuters

    Banks are facing mounting uncertainty as the commercial real estate (CRE) sector continues to struggle. But, tailwinds in our financial names should help safeguard their bottom lines.

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  • ‘Long path to profitability:’ What analysts are saying about Rivian’s second-quarter numbers

    ‘Long path to profitability:’ What analysts are saying about Rivian’s second-quarter numbers

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  • Tesla books record revenue of $24.9 billion with margin declining after price cuts

    Tesla books record revenue of $24.9 billion with margin declining after price cuts

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    Chief Executive Officer of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of Twitter, Elon Musk attends the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at the Porte de Versailles exhibition centre on June 16, 2023 in Paris, France.

    Chesnot | Getty Images

    Tesla reported earnings after the bell, showing a record for quarterly revenue but lower margins thanks to price cuts and incentives. The stock price is essentially unchanged in after-hours trading.

    • Revenue: $24.93 billion, versus $24.47 billion expected according to Refinitiv.
    • Earnings: 91 cents per share adjusted, versus 82 cents per share expected as per Refinitiv.

    Net income (GAAP) was $2.70 billion, an increase of 20% from last year. Operating income, however, was off 3% from the year-ago quarter at $2.40 billion.

    By way of comparison, during the first quarter of 2023, Tesla reported net income of $2.51 billion on revenue of $23.33 billion. During the second quarter last year, Tesla reported net income of $2.27 billion on $16.93 billion in revenue.

    On the company’s earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said, “We continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, but expect Q3 production will be a little bit down because we’ve got summer shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades.”

    Early this month, Tesla reported 466,140 total vehicle deliveries for the second quarter and said it had produced 479,700 electric vehicles. Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales that Tesla reports.

    Those deliveries were higher than Wall Street expected, and were partly driven by incentives and discounts. Correspondingly, operating margins came in at 9.6%, the lowest for at least the last five quarters. Total gross margin came in at 18.2%, also a low for the same period.

    Tesla explained in a shareholder deck that its lower margins in the second quarter resulted from reduced average sales prices “due to mix and pricing” of the cars it has been selling, and the cost of ramping up production of battery cells it designed in-house, known as the 4680 cells, among other factors.

    Revenue from Tesla’s core automotive business rose 46% year-over-year to $21.27 billion, about a 6.5% increase sequentially. Its energy generation and storage revenue — from solar installations, and backup batteries — rose 74% year-over-year to $1.51 billion. With more vehicles on the road, Tesla’s “services and other” revenue, including fees for out-of-warranty vehicle repairs, rose 47% to $2.15 billion.

    Tesla’s research and development costs rose to $943 million (from $771 million in the first quarter) with the company writing in a shareholder deck that it is focused on “being at the forefront of AI development,” and has started production of its Dojo “training computers.”

    Tesla’s crossover, the Model Y, became the best-selling vehicle worldwide in the first quarter of 2023.

    Tesla said in an investor deck that Cybertruck “factory tooling” is on track but the company is only producing “release candidate” builds so far. The news could disappoint fans who are eagerly awaiting start of deliveries of the angular, sci-fi inspired pickup that Elon Musk first promoted in 2019. In recent days, Tesla posted a photo via its social media account on Twitter showing factory workers crowded in around a Cybertruck in their Austin, Texas facility. The tweet said, “First Cybertruck built at Giga Texas!”

    On the earnings call, Musk that the Cybertruck would include lots of “new technology,” with 10,000 “unique parts and processes.” Giving the caveat that it is “always difficult to predict the ramp initially,” Tesla will be making the Cybertruck, “in high volume next year, and we will be delivering the car this year.”

    Musk also said Tesla will be spending more than $1 billion on Dojo over the next year. Dojo is a supercomputer that Tesla is developing for AI machine learning and computer vision training purposes. Tesla hoovers up video clips and data from its customers’ and company vehicles to improve existing software, and to develop new features that become part of its driver assistance systems.

    “You see a lot of AI companies doing you know LLMs and what not and I’m thinking, if they’re so great why can’t they make a self-driving car? Because it’s harder!”

    Musk has been promising Tesla would deliver a self-driving car since at least 2016, and at that time promised a Tesla would be able to complete a cross-country trip with no driver intervention in 2017. So far, that still hasn’t happened. The company’s driver assistance systems, marketed as Autopilot or Full Self-Driving capability in the US, requires a human driver ready to steer or brake at any time.

    More futuristically, Musk spoke about combining a Neuralink brain implant with a robotic arm or leg made by Tesla. Speaking of amputees, he said, “We believe we can give [them] a cyborg body that is incredibly capable — six-million-dollar man in real life, but it won’t cost six million dollars.” He joked, “Sixteen-thousand-dollar man.”

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  • Recycling ‘end-of-life’ solar panels, wind turbines, is about to be climate tech’s big waste business

    Recycling ‘end-of-life’ solar panels, wind turbines, is about to be climate tech’s big waste business

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    Solarcycle CTO Pablo Dias and COO Rob Vinje show a solar panel laminate after it’s been cleanly separated from the glass to investors and partners. The laminate is where most of the value is contained in a panel, like silver, silicon, and copper.

    Solarcycle

    The growing importance of wind and solar energy to the U.S. power grid, and the rise of electric vehicles, are all key to the nation’s growing need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, lower carbon emissions and mitigate climate change.

    But at the same time, these burgeoning renewable energy industries will soon generate tons of waste as millions of photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, wind turbines and lithium-ion EV batteries reach the end of their respective lifecycles.

    As the saying goes, though, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Anticipating the pileup of exhausted clean-energy components — and wanting to proactively avoid past sins committed by not responsibly cleaning up after decommissioned coal mines, oil wells and power plants — a number of innovative startups are striving to create a sustainable, and lucrative, circular economy to recover, recycle and reuse the core components of climate tech innovation.

    Wind and solar energy combined to generate 13.6% of utility-scale electricity last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and those numbers will undoubtedly rise as renewable energy continues to scale up. Some leading utilities across the nation are far ahead of that pace already.

    Meanwhile, sales of all-electric vehicles rose to 5.8% of the total 13.8 million vehicles Americans purchased in 2022, up from 3.2% in 2021. And with the Environmental Protection Agency’s newly proposed tailpipe emissions limits and power plant rules, EV sales could capture a 67% market share by 2032 and more utilities be forced to accelerate their power generation transition.

    Solarcycle is a prime example of the companies looking to solve this climate tech waste problem of the future. Launched last year in Oakland, California, it has since constructed a recycling facility in Odessa, Texas, where it extracts 95% of the materials from end-of-life solar panels and reintroduces them into the supply chain. It sells recovered silver and copper on commodity markets and glass, silicon and aluminum to panel manufacturers and solar farm operators.

    “Solar is becoming the dominant form of power generation,” Solarcycle CEO Suvi Sharma said, citing an EIA report stating that 54% of new utility-scale electric-generating capacity in the U.S. this year will come from solar. “But with that comes a new set of challenges and opportunities. We have done a phenomenal job making solar efficient and cost-effective, but really have not done anything yet on making it circular and dealing with the end-of-life [panels].”

    Keeping solar panels out of landfills

    The average lifespan of a solar panel is about 25 to 30 years, and there are more than 500 million already installed across the country, Sharma said, ranging from a dozen on a residential home’s rooftop to thousands in a commercial solar farm. With solar capacity now rising an average of 21% annually, tens of millions more panels will be going up — and coming down. Between 2030 and 2060, roughly 9.8 million metric tons of solar panel waste are expected to accumulate, according to a 2019 study published in Renewable Energy.

    Currently, about 90% of end-of-life or defective solar panels end up in landfills, largely because it costs far less to dump them than to recycle them. “We see that gap closing over the next five to 10 years significantly,” Sharma said, “through a combination of recycling becoming more cost-effective and landfilling costs only increasing.”

    Indeed, the market for recycled solar panel materials is expected to grow exponentially over the next several years. A report by research firm Rystad Energy stated they’ll be worth more than $2.7 billion in 2030, up from only $170 million last year, and accelerate to around $80 billion by 2050. The Department of Energy’s National Renewable Laboratory (NREL) found that with modest government support, recycled materials can meet 30%-50% of solar manufacturing needs in the U.S. by 2040.

    Both the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provide tax credits and funding for domestic manufacturing of solar panels and components, as well as research into new solar technologies. Those provisions are intended to cut into China’s dominant position in the global solar panel supply chain, which exceeds 80% today, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency.

    One recipient of this federal funding is First Solar, the largest solar panel manufacturer in the U.S. Founded in 1999 in Tempe, Arizona, the company has production facilities in Ohio and another under construction in Alabama. It has been awarded $7.3 million in research funds to develop a new residential rooftop panel that is more efficient than current silicon or thin-film modules.

    First Solar has maintained an in-house recycling program since 2005, according to an email from chief product officer Pat Buehler. “We recognized that integrating circularity into our operations was necessary to scale the business in a sustainable way,” he wrote. But rather than extracting metals and glass from retired panels and manufacturing scrap, “our recycling process provides closed-loop semiconductor recovery for use in new modules,” he added.

    Massive wind turbines, blades are almost all recyclable

    Retired wind turbines present another recycling challenge, as well as business opportunities. The U.S. wind energy industry started erecting turbines in the early 1980s and has been steadily growing since. The American Clean Power Association estimates that today there are nearly 72,000 utility-scale turbines installed nationwide — all but seven of them land-based — generating 10.2% of the country’s electricity.

    Although the industry stalled over the past two years, due to supply chain snags, inflation and rising costs, turbine manufacturers and wind farm developers are optimistic that the tide has turned, especially given the subsidies and tax credits for green energy projects in the IRA and the Biden administration’s pledge to jumpstart the nascent offshore wind sector.

    The lifespan of a wind turbine is around 20 years, and most decommissioned ones have joined retired solar panels in landfills. However, practically everything comprising a turbine is recyclable, from the steel tower to the composite blades, typically 170 feet long, though the latest models exceed 350 feet.

    Between 3,000 and 9,000 blades will be retired each year for the next five years in the U.S., and then the number will increase to between 10,000 and 20,000 until 2040, according to a 2021 study by NREL. By 2050, 235,000 blades will be decommissioned, translating to a cumulative mass of 2.2 million metric tons — or more than 60,627 fully loaded tractor trailers.

    How the circular renewable energy economy works

    Players in the circular economy are determined not to let all that waste go to waste.

    Knoxville-based Carbon Rivers, founded in 2019, has developed technology to shred not only turbine blades but also discarded composite materials from the automotive, construction and marine industries and convert them through a pyrolysis process into reclaimed glass fiber. “It can be used for next-generation manufacturing of turbine blades, marine vessels, composite concrete and auto parts,” said chief strategy officer David Morgan, adding that the process also harvests renewable oil and synthetic gas for reuse.

    While processing the shredded materials is fairly straightforward, transporting massive turbine blades and other composites over long distances by rail and truck is more complicated. “Logistics is far and away the most expensive part of this entire process,” Morgan said.

    In addition to existing facilities in Tennessee and Texas, Carbon Rivers plans to build sites in Florida, Pennsylvania and Idaho over the next three years, strategically located near wind farms and other feedstock sources. “We want to build another five facilities in the U.K. and Europe, then get to the South American and Asian markets next,” he said.

    In the spirit of corporate sustainability — specifically not wanting their blades piling up in landfills — wind turbine manufacturers themselves are contracting with recycling partners. In December 2020, General Electric’s Renewable Energy unit signed a multi-year agreement with Boston-based Veolia North America to recycle decommissioned blades from land-based GE turbines in the U.S.

    Veolia North America opened up a recycling plant in Missouri in 2020, where it has processed about 2,600 blades to date, according to Julie Angulo, senior vice president, technical and performance. “We are seeing the first wave of blades that are 10 to 12 years old, but we know that number is going to go up year-on-year,” she said.

    Using a process known as kiln co-processing, Veolia reconstitutes shredded blades and other composite materials into a fuel it then sells to cement manufacturers as a replacement for coal, sand and clay. The process reduces carbon dioxide emissions by 27% and consumption of water by 13% in cement production.

    “Cement manufacturers want to walk away from coal for carbon emissions reasons,” Angulo said. “This is a good substitute, so they’re good partners for us.”

    GE’s wind turbine competitors are devising ways to make the next generation of blades inherently more recyclable. Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy has begun producing fully recyclable blades for both its land-based and offshore wind turbines and has said it plans to make all of its turbines fully recyclable by 2040. Vestas Wind Systems has committed to producing zero-waste wind turbines by 2040, though it has not yet introduced such a version. In February, Vestas introduced a new solution that renders epoxy-based turbine blades to be broken down and recycled.

    Electric vehicle lithium-ion battery scrap

    Lithium-ion batteries have been in use since the early 1990s, at first powering laptops, cell phones and other consumer electronics, and for the past couple of decades EVs and energy storage systems. Recycling of their valuable innards — lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper — is focused on EVs, especially as automakers ramp up production, including building battery gigafactories. But today’s EV batteries have a lifespan of 10-20 years, or 100,000-200,000 miles, so for the time being, recyclers are primarily processing battery manufacturers’ scrap.

    Toronto-based Li-Cycle, launched in 2016, has developed a two-step technology that breaks down batteries and scrap to inert materials and then shreds them, using a hydrometallurgy process, to produce minerals that are sold back into the general manufacturing supply chain. To avoid high transportation costs for shipping feedstock from various sites, Li-Cycle has geographically interspersed four facilities — in Alabama, Arizona, New York and Ontario — where it’s deconstructed. It is building a massive facility in Rochester, New York, where the materials will be processed.

    “We’re on track to start commissioning the Rochester [facility] at the end of this year,” said Li-Cycle’s co-founder and CEO Ajay Kochhlar. Construction has been funded by a $375 loan from the Department of Energy (DOE), he said, adding that since the company went public, it’s also raised about $1 billion in private deals.

    A different approach to battery recycling is underway at Redwood Materials, founded outside of Reno, Nevada, in 2017 by JB Straubel, the former chief technology officer and co-founder of Tesla. Redwood also uses hydrometallurgy to break down batteries and scrap, but produces anode copper foil and cathode-active materials for making new EV batteries. Because the feedstock is not yet plentiful enough, the nickel and lithium in its cathode products will only be about 30% from recycled sources, with the remainder coming from newly mined metals.

    Former Tesla CTO JB Straubel tackles battery recycling with Redwood Materials

    “We’re aiming to produce 100 GWh/year of cathode-active materials and anode foil for one million EVs by 2025,” Redwood said in an email statement. “By 2030, our goal is to scale to 500 GWh/year of materials, which would enable enough batteries to power five million EVs.”

    Besides its Nevada facility, Redwood has broken ground on a second one in Charleston, South Carolina. The privately held company said it has raised more than $1 billion, and in February it received a conditional commitment from the DOE for a $2-billion loan from the DOE as part of the IRA. Last year Redwood struck a multi-billion dollar deal with Tesla’s battery supplier Panasonic, and it’s also inked partnerships with Volkswagen Group of America, Toyota, Ford and Volvo.

    Ascend Elements, headquartered in Westborough, Massachusetts, utilizes hydrometallurgy technology to extract cathode-active material mostly from battery manufacturing scrap, but also spent lithium-ion batteries. Its processing facility is strategically located in Covington, Georgia, a state that has attracted EV battery makers, including SK Group in nearby Commerce, as well as EV maker Rivian, near Rutledge, and Hyundai, which is building an EV factory outside of Savannah.

    Last October, Ascend began construction on a second recycling facility, in Hopkinsville, Kentucky, using federal dollars earmarked for green energy projects. “We have received two grant awards from the [DOE] under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law that totaled around $480 million,” said CEO Mike O’Kronley. Such federal investments, he said, “incentivizes infrastructure that needs to be built in the U.S., because around 96% of all cathode materials are made in East Asia, in particular China.”

    As the nation continues to build out a multi-billion-dollar renewable energy supply chain around solar, wind and EVs, simultaneously establishing a circular economy to recover, recycle and reuse end-of-life components from those industries is essential in the overarching goal of battling climate change.

    “It’s important to make sure we keep in mind the context of these emerging technologies and understand their full lifecycle,” said Garvin Heath, a senior energy sustainability analyst at NREL. “The circular economy provides a lot of opportunities to these industries to be as sustainable and environmentally friendly as possible at a relatively early phase of their growth.”

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  • Baird’s three favorite plays on the future of energy and mobility going into earnings season

    Baird’s three favorite plays on the future of energy and mobility going into earnings season

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  • Here are Friday’s biggest analyst calls: Amazon, VF Corp, Deere, Netflix, Rivian, Nvidia & more

    Here are Friday’s biggest analyst calls: Amazon, VF Corp, Deere, Netflix, Rivian, Nvidia & more

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  • Tech stocks just finished a five-week rally — the longest stretch since market peak in November 2021

    Tech stocks just finished a five-week rally — the longest stretch since market peak in November 2021

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    Tech stocks on display at the Nasdaq.

    Peter Kramer | CNBC

    The Nasdaq just wrapped up its fifth straight week of gains, jumping 3.3% over the last five days. It’s the longest weekly winning streak for the tech-laden index since a stretch that ended in November 2021. Coming off its worst year since 2008, the Nasdaq is up 15% to start 2023.

    The last time tech stocks enjoyed a rally this long, investors were gearing up for electric carmaker Rivian’s blockbuster IPO, the U.S. economy was closing out its strongest year for growth since 1984, and the Nasdaq was trading at a record.

    This time around, there’s far less champagne popping. Cost cuts have replaced growth on Wall Street’s checklist, and tech executives are being celebrated for efficiency over innovation. The IPO market is dead. Layoffs are abundant.

    Earnings reports were the story of the week, with results landing from many of the world’s most valuable tech companies. But the numbers, for the most part, weren’t good.

    Apple missed estimates for the first time since 2016, Facebook parent Meta recorded a third straight quarter of declining revenue, Google‘s core advertising business shrank, and Amazon closed out its weakest year for growth in its 25-year history as a public company.

    While investors had mixed reactions to the individual reports, all four stocks closed the week with solid gains, as did Microsoft, which reported earnings the prior week and issued lackluster guidance in projecting revenue growth this quarter of only about 3%.

    Cost control is king

    Meta was the top performer among the group this week, with the stock soaring 23%, its third-best week ever. In its earnings report Wednesday, revenue came in slightly above estimates, even with sales down year over year, and the first-quarter forecast was roughly in line with expectations.

    The key to the rally was CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s pronouncement in the earnings statement that 2023 would be the “Year of Efficiency” and his promise that “we’re focused on becoming a stronger and more nimble organization.”

    “That was really the game-changer,” Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, said in an interview Friday with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

    “The quarter itself was OK, but it was the cost-cutting that they finally got religion on, and that’s why I think Meta really took off,” she said.

    Zuckerberg acknowledged that the times are changing. From the year of its IPO in 2012 through 2021, the company grew between 22% and 58% a year. But in 2022 revenue fell 1%, and analysts expect growth of only 5% in 2023, according to Refinitiv.

    On the earnings call, Zuckerberg said he doesn’t expect declines to continue, “but I also don’t think it’s going to go back to the way it was before.” Meta announced in November the elimination of 11,000 jobs, or 13% of its workforce.

    Link said the reason Meta’s stock got such a big bounce after earnings was because “expectations were so low and the valuation was so compelling.” The stock lost almost two-thirds of its value last year, far more than its mega-cap peers.

    Navigating ‘a very difficult environment’

    Apple, which slid 27% last year, gained 6.2% this week despite reporting its steepest drop in revenue in seven years. CEO Tim Cook said results were hurt by a strong dollar, production issues in China affecting the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, and the overall macroeconomic environment. 

    “Apple is navigating what is, of course, a very difficult environment quite well overall,” Dan Flax, an analyst at Neuberger Berman, told “Squawk Box” on Friday. “As we move through the coming months and quarters, we’ll see a return to growth and the market will begin to discount that. We continue to like the name even in the face of these macro challenges.”

    Watch CNBC's full interview with Neuberger Berman's Dan Flax

    Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who succeeded Jeff Bezos in mid-2021, took the unusual step of joining the earnings call with analysts Thursday after his company issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for the first quarter. In January, Amazon began layoffs, which are expected to result in the loss of more than 18,000 jobs.

    “Given this last quarter was the end of my first full year in this role and given some of the unusual parts in the economy and our business, I thought this might be a good one to join,” Jassy said on the call.

    Managing expenses has become a big theme for Amazon, which expanded rapidly during the pandemic and subsequently admitted that it hired too many people during that period.

    “We’re working really hard to streamline our costs,” Jassy said.

    Alphabet is also in downsizing mode. The company announced last month that it’s slashing 12,000 jobs. Its revenue miss for the fourth quarter included disappointing sales at YouTube from a pullback in ad spending and weakness in the cloud division as businesses tighten their belts.

    Ruth Porat, Alphabet’s finance chief, told CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa that the company is meaningfully slowing the pace of hiring in an effort to deliver long-term profitable growth.

    Alphabet shares ended the week up 5.4% even after giving up some of their gains during Friday’s sell-off. The stock is now up 19% for the year.

    Ruth Porat, Alphabet CFO, at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on May 23rd, 2022. 

    Adam Galica | CNBC

    Should the Nasdaq continue its upward trend and notch a sixth week of gains, it would match the longest rally since a stretch that ended in January 2020, just before the Covid pandemic hit the U.S.

    Investors will now turn to earnings reports from smaller companies. Some of the names they’ll hear from next week include Pinterest, Robinhood, Affirm and Cloudflare.

    Another area in tech that flourished this week was the semiconductor space. Similar to the consumer tech companies, there wasn’t much by way of growth to excite Wall Street.

    AMD on Tuesday beat on sales and profit but guided analysts to a 10% year-over-year decline in revenue for the current quarter. Intel, AMD’s primary competitor, reported a disastrous quarter last week and projected a 40% decline in sales in the March quarter.

    Still, AMD jumped 14% for the week and Intel rose almost 8%. Texas Instruments and Nvidia also notched nice gains.

    The semiconductor industry is dealing with a glut of extra parts at PC and server makers and falling prices for components such as memory and central processors. But after a miserable year in 2022, the stocks are rebounding on signs that an easing of Federal Reserve rate increases and lightening inflation numbers will give the companies a boost later this year.

    WATCH: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Truist’s Youssef Squali

    Watch CNBC's full interview with Truist Securities' Youssef Squali

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  • Tesla just had its best week since May 2013

    Tesla just had its best week since May 2013

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    Tesla CEO Elon Musk smiles as he addresses guests at the Offshore Northern Seas 2022 (ONS) meeting in Stavanger, Norway on August 29, 2022.

    Carina Johansen | AFP | Getty Images

    Tesla shares surged 33% this week, marking their best weekly performance since May 2013 and second best on record.

    The stock rose 11% on Friday to close at $177.88. The rebound followed a six-month period in which Tesla shares had declined more than 40%. The stock’s 65% plunge in 2022 was its worst in Tesla’s 12-plus years as a public company.

    Tesla’s rally this week was aided by an upbeat fourth-quarter earnings report. During the call with shareholders and analysts, CEO Elon Musk said the company was on target to potentially produce 2 million vehicles in 2023, and he suggested demand would support sales of those cars as well.

    Official guidance called for production of 1.8 million vehicles this year. The company has not revised its longstanding target for 50% compound annual growth rate over a multi-year horizon.

    Tesla’s five day performance charted against Rivian and Ford Motor Company.

    Tesla beat on both the top and the bottom lines, recording total revenue of $24.32 billion, including $324 million of deferred revenue related to Tesla’s driver assistance systems. The company cut prices for its cars dramatically in December and January, leading to concern about demand and a buildup of inventory.

    Analyst reaction to Tesla’s numbers was mixed.

    “For bulls, the growth story is alive and well,” Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi, who has an underperform rating on the stock, wrote in a note on Thursday. “For bears, the numbers don’t lie.”

    In early January, Tesla reported fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries and production that fell shy of expectations.

    Tesla’s stock jump came amid a broader market rally. The S&P 500 was up 2.2% for the week and the Nasdaq gained 4.3%.

    Other U.S.-based electric vehicle makers saw their shares climb higher. Rivian rose 22% during the week, while shares in legacy automakers Ford and General Motors each gained more than 7%.

    Rival electric car manufacturer Lucid spiked on Friday as well, rising 43% on reports of rumors that Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, intended to take the company private.

    Some of Tesla’s underperformance last year was attributed to Musk’s shift of focus to Twitter, which he acquired for $44 billion in October. Under Musk’s leadership, Twitter has experienced mass layoffs and fleeing advertisers, gutting morale.

    Tesla remains the second most-shorted stock in U.S. markets, behind only Apple, meaning that a large numbers of investors are betting on a decline. Over 94 million of the automaker’s shares are shorted, according to data from S3 Partners.

    Despite the rally, active short selling continues, S3 managing director Ihor Dusaniwsky told CNBC. Short sellers view Tesla’s appreciation as having created “an overheated and overbought stock that is due for at least a short-term reversal,” he said. In the last week, S3 Partners said it’s seen a 3.9% increase in total shares shorted, while investors shorting the stock lost $4.3 billion over that stretch.

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  • India is learning to love electric vehicles — but they’re not cars 

    India is learning to love electric vehicles — but they’re not cars 

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    Electric vehicle charging stations from Tata Power can be found on 350 of the 600 highways in India.

    Puneet Vikram Singh, Nature And Concept Photographer, | Moment | Getty Images

    When most people think about electric vehicles, they think cars.

    From brands like Tesla and Rivian in the United States, to Nio and XPeng in China, global sales of electric vehicles have surged. Two million EVs were sold in just the first quarter of 2022 — that’s a significant jump from a decade ago when sales hit only 120,000 cars worldwide, the International Energy Agency reported.

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    India’s different. The United States and China have focused on the adoption of EV cars. But in India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, two-wheel vehicles such as scooters, mopeds and motorbikes, dominate the market.

    James Hong, head of mobility research at Macquarie Group, said two-wheel vehicles are in higher demand than cars in India, and that shouldn’t come as a surprise.

    Underdeveloped road infrastructure and lower personal incomes make it more convenient and affordable for people to own scooters, motorbikes or mopeds, rather than cars, Hong said.

    Still, adoption remains low.

    Consumers in India are ready to transition to electric vehicles, says Ola CEO

    EVs make up only around 2% of total automobile sales, but the Indian government has ambitious targets to increase EV adoption in the next decade, focusing on raising purchases of two-wheel vehicles.

    Sales in India are expected to rise by between 40% and 45% by 2030, at which point 13 million new vehicles will be sold annually, according to projections from Bain & Company published in December. 

    India’s four-wheel vehicle sector is poised to grow by only 15% to 20% by 2030, with 1 million new vehicles sold annually, the consulting firm said.

    Growth of India’s four-wheel EV segment is expected to be smaller because the cars are mostly owned only by drivers who travel out of the city on longer routes, said Arun Agarwal, deputy vice president of equity research at Kotak Securities. 

    Bain & Co. predicts that total revenue across the full supply chain of India’s EV industry will generate $76 billion to $100 billion by 2030.

    Reducing cost to increase adoption 

    People in India have long preferred two wheels to four, and the country is home to more than 10 startups serving the market, Agarwal said.

    For India to increase purchases of two-wheel vehicles, they need to be cheaper, and more charging infrastructure needs to be in place, Jinesh Gandhi, equity research analyst at Motilal Oswal Securities, told CNBC. 

    Gandhi said that 90% of two-wheel vehicles with internal combustion engines cost between 70,000 rupees ($845) and 140,000 rupees ($1,690). The starting price of electric two-wheel vehicles can be as high as 160,000 rupees.

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    The cost of EVs will come down if battery prices drop, Kotak’s Agarwal said.

    High inflation and disrupted supply chains have driven batter prices higher in 2022, Bain & Co. said. The cost would have to fall by an additional 20% to 30% for EVs to compete with internal combustion engine vehicles.

    Arun Kumar, chief financial officer of two-wheel EV manufacturer Ola Electric, said it’s a “myth” that EVs are more expensive than internal combustion vehicles because the “lifecycle cost of ownership of an EV is lower” than a two- or four-wheel vehicle that runs on fuel.

    Ola Electric’s two-wheel scooters, and upcoming motorbike and four-wheel passenger car, all range between $1,000 and $50,000.

    Ola Electric

    That means the amount of money EV owners can save in fuel and maintenance costs can offset the higher initial purchase price, he said.

    Ola’s two-wheel scooters, an upcoming motorbike, and four-wheel passenger car range between $1,000 and $50,000, he said.

    “There’s no coming back to [internal combustion engine] vehicles. It’s a single direction,” Kumar added. 

    Government help

    Central and state governments in India have been providing incentives to encourage consumers in India to make the switch to EVs, Kotak’s Agarwal said. 

    According to the International Energy Agency, government programs have provided funding to ramp up production of EV public buses and taxis, as well as increase charging stations around India.

    EV owners are also granted road tax exemption at the time of purchase, and will receive a deduction on their income tax, the Accelerated e-Mobility Revolution for India’s Transportation said.

    Including taxes, owners of two-wheel internal combustion engine vehicles in India typically pay 3,000 rupees a month for their vehicle, Kumar said. Government initiatives coupled with money saved on petrol would therefore mean that the monthly installment on a vehicle becomes largely free to a customer, he said.

    ‘Range anxiety’

    As the adoption of electric vehicles is set to increase, so will charging infrastructures around the country. That remains a factor deterring people from making the switch away from carbon-intensive vehicles, Kotak’s Agarwal said.

    “If you are stranded on the road, you don’t have any option but to get the vehicle towed to the nearest charging station, which is time- as well as a cost-consuming,” Gandhi said.

    India’s charging infrastructure will need to significantly expand to support the number of EV companies that are set to come on the roads, the Bain & Co. report said, noting that several companies have made early investments and are committed to increasing the availability of chargers.

    Tata Power claimed that it has built about 2,500 charging stations over 300 cities and towns in India.

    Tata Power

    One of them is Tata Power, India’s largest privately owned power generation company. 

    Tata Power claimed it has built about 2,500 charging stations in 300 cities and towns in India. They can be found on 350 of 600 highways in the country, said Virendra Goyal, the firm’s head of business development.  

    Many EV owners suffer from “range anxiety” when the distance between charging stations is too far, and bridging the gap would encourage more drivers to migrate to e-mobility, he said.

    The company aims to have 25,000 chargers across India by 2028, Goyal said.

    Correction: This article has been updated to accurately report where India ranks among the world’s biggest economies. An earlier version misstated its ranking.

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  • Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

    Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year

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    Tesla just published its fourth-quarter vehicle production and delivery report for 2022.

    Here are the key numbers.

    Total deliveries Q4 2022: 405,278
    Total production Q4 2022: 439,701
    Total annual deliveries 2022: 1.31 million
    Total annual production 2022: 1.37 million

    Deliveries are the closest approximation of sales disclosed by Tesla. These numbers represented a new record for the Elon Musk-led automaker and growth of 40% in deliveries year-over-year.

    However, the fourth quarter numbers fell shy of analysts’ expectations.

    According to a consensus of analysts’ estimates compiled by FactSet, as of Dec. 31, 2022 Wall Street was expecting Tesla to report deliveries around 427,000 for the final quarter of the year. Estimates updated in December, and included in the FactSet consensus, ranged from 409,000 to 433,000.

    Those more recent estimates were in line with a company-compiled consensus distributed by Tesla investor relations Vice President Martin Viecha. That consensus, published by electric vehicle industry researcher @TroyTeslike, said that 24 sell-side analysts expected Tesla deliveries of about 417,957 on average for the quarter (and about 1.33 million deliveries for the full year).

    Tesla started production at two new factories this year — in Austin, Texas and Brandenburg, Germany — and ramped up production in Fremont, California and in Shanghai, but it does not disclose production and delivery numbers by region.

    In the fourth quarter of 2022, Tesla said deliveries of its entry level Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover amounted to 325,158, while deliveries of its higher end Model S sedan and Model X SUV amounted to 18,672.

    In its third-quarter shareholder presentation, Tesla wrote: “Over a multi-year horizon we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.”

    The period ending Dec. 31, 2022 was marked by challenges for Tesla, including Covid outbreaks in China, which caused the company to temporarily suspend and reduce production at its Shanghai factory.

    During the fourth quarter, Tesla also offered steep price cuts and other promotions in the U.S., China and elsewhere in order to spur demand, even though doing so could put pressure on its margins.

    In a recent e-mail to Tesla staff, Elon Musk asked employees to “volunteer” to deliver as many cars to customers as possible before the end of 2022. In his e-mail, Musk also encouraged employees not to be “bothered” by what he characterized as “stock market craziness.”

    Shares of Tesla plunged by more than 45% over the last six months.

    In December, several analysts expressed concern about weakening demand for Tesla electric vehicles, which are relatively expensive compared with an increasing number of hybrid and fully electric products from competitors.

    Along with competitors ranging from industry veterans Ford and GM to upstart Rivian, Tesla is poised to reap the benefits of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act this year, which includes incentives for domestic production and purchases of fully electric cars.

    Retail shareholders and analysts alike attributed some of Tesla’s falling share price in 2022 to a so-called “Twitter overhang.”

    Musk sold billions of dollars worth of his Tesla holdings last year to finance a leveraged buyout of the social media business Twitter. That deal closed in late October. Musk appointed himself CEO of Twitter and has stirred controversy by making sweeping changes to the company and its social media platform.

    Shares of Tesla started to rise again in the final days of December 2022, in anticipation of record fourth-quarter and full-year deliveries.

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  • The tech IPO market collapsed in 2022, and next year doesn’t look much better

    The tech IPO market collapsed in 2022, and next year doesn’t look much better

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    The Nasdaq MarketSite in New York.

    Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Following a record-smashing tech IPO year in 2021 that featured the debuts of electric car maker Rivian, restaurant software company Toast, cloud software vendors GitLab and HashiCorp and stock-trading app Robinhood, 2022 has been a complete dud.

    The only notable tech offering in the U.S. this year was Intel’s spinoff of Mobileye, a 23-year-old company that makes technology for self-driving cars and was publicly traded until its acquisition in 2017. Mobileye raised just under $1 billion, and no other U.S. tech IPO pulled in even $100 million, according to FactSet.

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    In 2021, by contrast, there were at least 10 tech IPOs in the U.S. that raised $1 billion or more, and that doesn’t account for the direct listings of Roblox, Coinbase and Squarespace, which were so well-capitalized they didn’t need to bring in outside cash.

    The narrative completely flipped when the calendar turned, with investors bailing on risk and the promise of future growth, in favor of profitable businesses with balance sheets deemed strong enough to weather an economic downturn and sustained higher interest rates. Pre-IPO companies altered their plans after seeing their public market peers plunge by 50%, 60%, and in some cases, more than 90% from last year’s highs.

    In total, IPO deal proceeds plummeted 94% in 2022 — from $155.8 billion to $8.6 billion — according to Ernst & Young’s IPO report published in mid-December. As of the report’s publication date, the fourth quarter was on pace to be the weakest of the year.

    With the Nasdaq Composite headed for its steepest annual slump since 2008 and its first back-to-back years underperforming the S&P 500 since 2006-2007, tech investors are looking for signs of a bottom.

    But David Trainer, CEO of stock research firm New Constructs, says investors first need to get a grip on reality and get back to valuing emerging tech companies based on fundamentals and not far-out promises.

    As tech IPOs were flying in 2020 and 2021, Trainer was waving the warning flag, putting out detailed reports on software, e-commerce and tech-adjacent companies that were taking their sky-high private market valuations to the public markets. Trainer’s calls appeared comically bearish when the market was soaring, but many of his picks look prescient today, with Robinhood, Rivian and Sweetgreen each down at least 85% from their highs last year.

    “Until we see a persistent return to intelligent capital allocation as the primary driver of investment decisions, I think the IPO market will struggle,” Trainer said in an email. “Once investors focus on fundamentals again, I think the markets can get back to doing what they are supposed to do: support intelligent allocation of capital.”

    Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” last week that she’s “optimistic about 2023” because the “backlog has never been stronger,” and that activity will pick up once volatility in the market starts to dissipate.

    NYSE president very optimistic about 2023 public listings: 'Backlogs never been stronger'

    Hangover from last year’s ‘binge drinking’

    For companies in the pipeline, the problem isn’t as simple as overcoming a bear market and volatility. They also have to acknowledge that the valuations they achieved from private investors don’t reflect the change in public market sentiment.

    Companies that were funded over the past few years did so at the tail end of an extended bull run, during which interest rates were at historic lows and tech was driving major changes in the economy. Facebook’s mega IPO in 2012 and the millionaires minted by the likes of Uber, Airbnb, Twilio and Snowflake recycled money back into the tech ecosystem.

    Venture capital firms, meanwhile, raised ever larger funds, competing with a new crop of hedge funds and private equity firms that were pumping so much money into tech that many companies were opting to stay private for longer than they otherwise would.

    Money was plentiful. Financial discipline was not.

    In 2021, VC firms raised $131 billion, topping $100 billion for the first time and marking a second straight year over $80 billion, according to the National Venture Capital Association. The average post-money valuation for VC deals across all stages rose to $360 million in 2021 from about $200 million the prior year, the NVCA said.

    Those valuations are in the rearview mirror, and any companies who raised during that period will have to face up to reality before they go public.

    Some high-valued late-stage startups have already taken their lumps, though they may not be dramatic enough.

    Stripe cut its internal valuation by 28% in July, from $95 billion to $74 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Checkout.com slashed its valuation this month to $11 billion from $40 billion, according to the Financial Times. Instacart has taken a hit three times, reducing its valuation from $39 billion to $24 billion in May, then to $15 billion in July, and finally to $13 billion in October, according to The Information.

    Klarna, a provider of buy now, pay later technology, suffered perhaps the steepest drop in value among big-name startups. The Stockholm-based company raised financing at a $6.7 billion valuation this year, an 85% discount to its prior valuation of $46 billion.

    “There was a hangover from all the binge drinking in 2021,” said Don Butler, managing director at Thomvest Ventures.

    Butler doesn’t expect the IPO market to get appreciably better in 2023. Ongoing rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are looking more likely to tip the economy into recession, and there are no signs yet that investors are excited to take on risk.

    “What I’m seeing is that companies are looking at weakening b-to-b demand and consumer demand,” Butler said. “That’s going to make for a difficult ’23 as well.”

    Butler also thinks that Silicon Valley has to adapt to a shift away from the growth-first mindset before the IPO market picks up again. That not only means getting more efficient with capital, showing a near-term path to profitability, and reining in hiring expectations, but also requires making structural changes to the way organizations run.

    For example, startups have poured money into human resources in recent years to handle the influx in people and the aggressive recruiting across the industry. There’s far less need for those jobs during a hiring freeze, and in a market that’s seen 150,000 job cuts in 2022, according to tracking website Layoffs.fyi.

    Butler said he expects this “cultural reset” to take a couple more quarters and said, “that makes me remain pessimistic on the IPO market.”

    Cash is king

    One high-priced private company that has maintained its valuation is Databricks, whose software helps customers store and clean up data so employees can analyze and use it.

    Databricks raised $1.6 billion at a $38 billion valuation in August of 2021, near the market’s peak. As of mid-2021, the company was on pace to generate $1 billion in annual revenue, growing 75% year over year. It was on everybody’s list for top IPO candidates coming into the year.

    Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi isn’t talking about an IPO now, but at least he’s not expressing concerns about his company’s capital position. In fact, he says being private today plays to his advantage.

    “If you’re public, the only thing that matters is cash flow right now and what are you doing every day to increase your cash flow,” Ghodsi told CNBC. “I think it’s short-sighted, but I understand that’s what markets demand right now. We’re not public, so we don’t have to live by that.”

    Ghodsi said Databricks has “a lot of cash,” and even in a “sky is falling” scenario like the dot-com crash of 2000, the company “would be fully financed in a very healthy way without having to raise any money.”

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    Databricks has avoided layoffs and Ghodsi said the company plans to continue to hire to take advantage of readily available talent.

    “We’re in a unique position, because we’re extremely well-capitalized and we’re private,” Ghodsi said. “We’re going to take an asymmetric strategy with respect to investments.”

    That approach may make Databricks an attractive IPO candidate at some point in the future, but the valuation question remains a lingering concern.

    Snowflake, the closest public market comparison to Databricks, has lost almost two-thirds of its value since peaking in November 2021. Snowflake’s IPO in 2020 was the largest ever in the U.S. for a software company, raising almost $3.9 billion.

    Snowflake’s growth has remained robust. Revenue in the latest quarter soared 67%, beating estimates. Adjusted profit was also better than expectations, and the company said it generated $65 million in free cash flow in the quarter.

    Still, the stock is down almost 20% in the fourth quarter.

    “The sentiment in the market is a little stressed out,” Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman told CNBC’s Jim Cramer after the earnings report on Nov. 30. “People react very strongly. That’s understood, but we live in the real world, and we just go one day at a time, one quarter at a time.”

    — CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed to this report.

    WATCH: Snowflake CEO on the company’s light guidance

    Snowflake CEO on the company's light guidance

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