ReportWire

Tag: Rights

  • Recording immigration agents: Legal do’s and don’ts

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    A federal agent in Minnesota grabbed a woman’s phone as it recorded him approaching her Jan. 9, two days after a federal agent shot a U.S. citizen. “Have y’all not learned from the past couple of days?” the agent asked the woman. 

    Weeks later in Maine, a woman let her phone camera roll as an agent filmed her license plate and told her her name would be added to a database and she was now considered a domestic terrorist.

    “For videotaping you?” the woman asked. “Are you crazy?”

    And on Jan. 29, a Minnesota driver with a dash cam filmed masked immigration agents as they swerved in front of her car, got out of their vehicle and pulled their guns. 

    What are the rules around filming immigration agents in public?

    Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz encouraged the state’s residents to record agents to create a record of evidence. Bystanders’ video footage has been critical in painting fuller pictures of what happened in agent’s confrontations with civilians, including the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

    Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who is overseeing the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement tactics, said recording on-duty immigration agents is an act of violence. The department’s spokesperson also called videoing officers “doxing,” a “federal crime and a felony.”

    After immigration agents fatally shot Pretti, bystander video from multiple angles challenged Noem’s statements that Pretti had brandished his gun at immigration agents before he was killed. 

    The incidents reveal tension between the public’s First Amendment protections and what law enforcement officers see as obstruction. 

    A federal judge in January ruled against DHS’ attempt to dismiss a case brought by journalists who say the department infringed on their constitutional rights while they were covering immigration enforcement in California. The judge said the journalists had established that DHS has a policy considering filming immigration agents as unlawful civil unrest.

    We spoke to five legal experts about bystanders’ rights when recording immigration agents. 

    “Knowing your rights is paramount. Reminding officers of your rights is important. Standing on your rights is a personal decision,” Kevin Goldberg, vice president at Freedom Forum, a First Amendment rights advocacy group, said.

    Federal Bureau of Prisons officers threaten Associated Press video journalist Mark Vancleave with arrest on Jan. 28, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP)

    Is it legal to record immigration officials?

    Yes. Recording in public is allowed under the First Amendment. 

    A few states require bystanders to stay a certain distance away from first responders. For example, under Florida’s Halo Law, people are required to stay at least 25 feet away from law enforcement officers, firefighters and emergency medical responders.

    Some buffer-zone laws, such as one in Indiana, have been struck down in federal courts. 

    What does it mean to obstruct law enforcement?

    Even though it’s legal to record law enforcement officers in public, it is not legal to obstruct their activities. 

    Obstructing law enforcement generally requires physical action under federal law, legal experts said, such as standing between an officer and the person they’re trying to arrest. An obstruction must impede officers from carrying out their duties, which is why filming or yelling doesn’t count, Rachel Moran, a law professor at the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota, said.

    Immigration agents have accused several bystanders who record them of obstruction. 

    In many cases agents approach people who are in their cars recording agents. Agents tell the bystanders that this is their one warning and if they continue to follow the agent they will be arrested for obstructing.  

    Goldberg said, “Holding up a camera at an appropriate distance and filming should not inhibit any law enforcement officials from doing their jobs unless they think they’re doing something wrong.”

    A federal judge ruled Jan. 16 that following federal agents “at an appropriate distance does not, by itself, create reasonable suspicion to justify a vehicle stop.”

    An appeals court temporarily paused that order.

    “Following a police car or ICE vehicle on a public road is not obstructing,” Jessica West, a professor at Mitchell Hamline School of Law, said. “Blocking a car in to prevent it from moving in the direction it was headed, might be considered obstructing.”

    Moran agreed, she said the only way following an ICE officer could rise to the level of obstruction would be if a person yelled threats at an officer or drove so close to them “that the agents reasonably believed they were in danger of getting hit.” 

    People’s rights to observe and record law enforcement officers don’t change when someone is in a car, Goldberg said. However, because cars take up more space they can increase the likelihood of an obstruction in small spaces.

    “People are allowed to drive cars on public roads. People are allowed to film from public spaces. But all rules of the road must be followed,” Goldberg said.

    Federal agent brandishing a firearm approaches activists for following agent vehicles Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in Minneapolis. (AP)

    Who decides obstruction? 

    The decision about whether someone is obstructing law enforcement can be subjective. 

    First, a law enforcement officer must determine that there is probable cause — meaning, it’s more likely than not — that someone physically obstructed their actions, West said. Once that’s determined, the officer can make an arrest.

    A judge or a grand jury reviews the evidence and decides whether to charge the person. If charged, a judge or jury decides whether to convict.

    “Courts have given a lot of deference to law enforcement officials and so that is something that anyone who’s recording should be aware of,” Goldberg said.

    However, several grand juries have recently refused to indict cases related to impeding or assaulting immigration officers. Other cases have been dismissed.

    Can immigration agents take an observer’s phone or legally compel them to stop recording? 

    Immigration agents cannot legally compel somebody to stop recording so long as the person is not obstructing their work. They may tell observers to step back for safety reasons. 

    There have been recent cases of agents acting unconstitutionally by yelling at people to stop recording or knocking phones out of people’s hands.

    “It can be scary to maintain your rights when an agent is threatening you so ultimately it is the choice of the person recording whether to continue doing that and risk retaliation by the government,” Moran said.

    Agents also can’t take phones without arresting people.

    “It is a violation of civil rights to confiscate someone’s phone or other recording device if they are merely recording and not actively interfering with or obstructing law enforcement activities,” Timothy Zick, a constitutional law professor at William and Mary, said.

    Legal experts recommend disabling Face ID as that might make it easier for officers to unlock a phone.

    To search a person’s phone, agents need a warrant signed by a judge.

    Is recording law enforcement officers doxing and, if so, is that illegal? 

    Homeland Security officials have said that recording immigration agents is a form of doxing, which means publicly identifying or publishing private information about a person, especially as a form of punishment or revenge. (However, DHS’s social media profiles include several videos and photos of immigration agents conducting enforcement operations.)

    Legal experts agreed that recording an immigration agent in public is not considered doxing.

    “It is not doxing to film something that is happening in public, even though somebody would rather not have that information public,” Goldberg said. “Even if someone is masked to hide their identity.”

    Doxing often refers to publishing personal information, such as home or email addresses, phone numbers or private financial information, without someone’s consent.

    Some states have anti-doxing laws that hinge on whether there was an intention to harass or harm someone. ​

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  • Senate to take up book ban restrictions

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    BOSTON — The state Senate is poised to approve a plan to restrict efforts to ban books from public libraries and schools in response to a rise in challenges from parents and conservative groups.

    The “free expression” legislation, which cleared the Senate Ways and Means Committee on Thursday with bipartisan support, would make Massachusetts one of a handful of states to effectively outlaw book bans because of “personal, political or doctrinal” views by setting new restrictions on receiving state funding.


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    By Christian M. Wade | Statehouse Reporter

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  • Trump asks Supreme Court to uphold restrictions he wants to impose on birthright citizenship

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    President Donald Trump’s administration is asking the Supreme Court to uphold his birthright citizenship order declaring that children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily are not American citizens.Previous reporting: A legal win for birthright citizenship after Supreme Court setbackThe appeal, shared with The Associated Press on Saturday, sets in motion a process at the high court that could lead to a definitive ruling from the justices by early summer on whether the citizenship restrictions are constitutional.Lower-court judges have so far blocked them from taking effect anywhere. The Republican administration is not asking the court to let the restrictions take effect before it rules.The Justice Department’s petition has been shared with lawyers for parties challenging the order, but is not yet docketed at the Supreme Court.Any decision on whether to take up the case is probably months away, and arguments probably would not take place until the late winter or early spring.“The lower court’s decisions invalidated a policy of prime importance to the president and his administration in a manner that undermines our border security,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote. “Those decisions confer, without lawful justification, the privilege of American citizenship on hundreds of thousands of unqualified people.”Cody Wofsy, an American Civil Liberties Union lawyer who represents children who would be affected by Trump’s restrictions, said the administration’s plan is plainly unconstitutional.“This executive order is illegal, full stop, and no amount of maneuvering from the administration is going to change that. We will continue to ensure that no baby’s citizenship is ever stripped away by this cruel and senseless order,” Wofsy said in an email.Trump signed an executive order on the first day of his second term in the White House that would upend more than 125 years of understanding that the Constitution’s 14th Amendment confers citizenship on everyone born on American soil, with narrow exceptions for the children of foreign diplomats and those born to a foreign occupying force.In a series of decisions, lower courts have struck down the executive order as unconstitutional, or likely so, even after a Supreme Court ruling in late June that limited judges’ use of nationwide injunctions.While the Supreme Court curbed the use of nationwide injunctions, it did not rule out other court orders that could have nationwide effects, including in class-action lawsuits and those brought by states. The justices did not decide at that time whether the underlying citizenship order is constitutional.But every lower court that has looked at the issue has concluded that Trump’s order violates or likely violates the 14th Amendment, which was intended to ensure that Black people, including former slaves, had citizenship.The administration is appealing two cases.The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit in San Francisco ruled in July that a group of states that sued over the order needed a nationwide injunction to prevent the problems that would be caused by birthright citizenship being in effect in some states and not others.Also in July, a federal judge in New Hampshire blocked the citizenship order in a class-action lawsuit including all children who would be affected.Birthright citizenship automatically makes anyone born in the United States an American citizen, including children born to mothers who are in the country illegally, under long-standing rules. The right was enshrined soon after the Civil War in the first sentence of the 14th Amendment.The administration has asserted that children of noncitizens are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States and therefore not entitled to citizenship.

    President Donald Trump’s administration is asking the Supreme Court to uphold his birthright citizenship order declaring that children born to parents who are in the United States illegally or temporarily are not American citizens.

    Previous reporting: A legal win for birthright citizenship after Supreme Court setback

    The appeal, shared with The Associated Press on Saturday, sets in motion a process at the high court that could lead to a definitive ruling from the justices by early summer on whether the citizenship restrictions are constitutional.

    Lower-court judges have so far blocked them from taking effect anywhere. The Republican administration is not asking the court to let the restrictions take effect before it rules.

    The Justice Department’s petition has been shared with lawyers for parties challenging the order, but is not yet docketed at the Supreme Court.

    Any decision on whether to take up the case is probably months away, and arguments probably would not take place until the late winter or early spring.

    “The lower court’s decisions invalidated a policy of prime importance to the president and his administration in a manner that undermines our border security,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote. “Those decisions confer, without lawful justification, the privilege of American citizenship on hundreds of thousands of unqualified people.”

    Cody Wofsy, an American Civil Liberties Union lawyer who represents children who would be affected by Trump’s restrictions, said the administration’s plan is plainly unconstitutional.

    “This executive order is illegal, full stop, and no amount of maneuvering from the administration is going to change that. We will continue to ensure that no baby’s citizenship is ever stripped away by this cruel and senseless order,” Wofsy said in an email.

    Trump signed an executive order on the first day of his second term in the White House that would upend more than 125 years of understanding that the Constitution’s 14th Amendment confers citizenship on everyone born on American soil, with narrow exceptions for the children of foreign diplomats and those born to a foreign occupying force.

    In a series of decisions, lower courts have struck down the executive order as unconstitutional, or likely so, even after a Supreme Court ruling in late June that limited judges’ use of nationwide injunctions.

    While the Supreme Court curbed the use of nationwide injunctions, it did not rule out other court orders that could have nationwide effects, including in class-action lawsuits and those brought by states. The justices did not decide at that time whether the underlying citizenship order is constitutional.

    But every lower court that has looked at the issue has concluded that Trump’s order violates or likely violates the 14th Amendment, which was intended to ensure that Black people, including former slaves, had citizenship.

    The administration is appealing two cases.

    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit in San Francisco ruled in July that a group of states that sued over the order needed a nationwide injunction to prevent the problems that would be caused by birthright citizenship being in effect in some states and not others.

    Also in July, a federal judge in New Hampshire blocked the citizenship order in a class-action lawsuit including all children who would be affected.

    Birthright citizenship automatically makes anyone born in the United States an American citizen, including children born to mothers who are in the country illegally, under long-standing rules. The right was enshrined soon after the Civil War in the first sentence of the 14th Amendment.

    The administration has asserted that children of noncitizens are not “subject to the jurisdiction” of the United States and therefore not entitled to citizenship.

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  • Charter school supporters rally for ‘equal treatment’, more funding as mayoral election nears • Brooklyn Paper

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    A coalition of over 200 New York City public charter schools marched across the Brooklyn Bridge last week in what school networks are calling a show of support for a “child’s right to learn” and opponents have labeled as forced advocacy.

    Eva Moskowitz, founder and CEO of Success Academy — after hosting organizer webinars, sending SOS emails to supporters, family and faculty, and allegedly admonishing employees for failing to lobby elected officials to her — rallied on Sept. 18 with some 15,000 students, parents and staff, then “marched for excellence” from Brooklyn to Printing House Square, just outside New York’s City Hall.

    The rally was described by organizers as an opportunity for advocates to “raise their voices in unity” and send a message demanding “excellence as a civil right,” as well as “equal treatment and access to excellent schools.”

    Supporters said the rally was an opportunity to demand equal treatment of and access to charter schools. Photo by Jonathan Portee

    “This rally is about equity, justice and opportunity,” said Samantha Robin, a parent at Dream Charter School. “Parents deserve the freedom to choose schools that honor their children’s genius, their culture, and their potential.”

    With mere weeks before the New York City mayoral election, charter schools, facing the prospect of a new mayor opposed to their expansion in Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, are framing the “March for Excellence” rally as part of a yearslong larger fight for the equal treatment of charter school students.

    The rally comes at a delicate moment for the charter sector. Charters, which are publicly funded and privately run, serve 15% of city students but have experienced slowed growth in enrollment since the pandemic, according to research from the New York City Charter School Center.

    Mamdani, the only major mayoral candidate running in November, has been critical of charters. He centered his education platform on universal child care and has been vocal about his intention to review charter school funding as mayor.

    rally
    Thousands of people attended the rally and march.Photo courtesy of March for Excellence
    success academy CEO eva moskowitz
    Success Ccademy CEO Eva Moskowitz, who organized the rally and allegedly demanded that Success students and teachers attend. Photo by Jonathan Portee

    Supporters in attendance included Rafiq Kalam Id-Din, Chair of the Black, Latinx, and Asian Charter Collaborative; Leslie-Bernard Joseph, CEO of KIPP NYC public schools; and many charter school families and faculty, who were instructed on organizing and staying on message throughout the event.

    Rumors circulated online that faculty attendance at the rally was compulsory.

    In the r/survivingsuccess group on Reddit, one user’s simple question concerning the veracity of the claim sent members of the small but sprawling community of current and former charter school teachers into a frenzy.

    Reporting that details internal emails and other documents about the event suggest a coordinated effort to pressure employees into participating and coerce students into demonstrating what the charters are calling targeted advocacy.

    Will Doyle, 21, grew up attending public schools in the Bay Ridge area. Now a first-year teacher with Success Academy in Sheepshead Bay, Doyle explained the reason for the rally.

    charter school students at rally
    A number of charter schools canceled classes for the day and brought students to the rally instead. Photo by Jonathan Portee

    “We’re here advocating for charter schools, but I do know that with the mayoral elections coming up, some candidates oppose the expansion of charter schools,” Doyle said. “From what I’ve heard, mayoral candidate Mamdani seeks to oppose the expansion of charter schools. I don’t have a source for that, but I have done some personal research. I don’t know if he’s the only one.”

    Doyle said he was happy to attend the rally because he works for a charter school and all employees are required to attend these events as part of their job.

    An operations associate with Success, who asked not to remain anonymous, echoed that the event was planned due to a general concern about “certain candidates” in the upcoming election. The associate noted that Success Academy is trying to show a presence for the cause of charter schools.

    “I think that [charters] definitely would advocate that they need more money and space. But I think the big thing is just accounting for future challenges,” he said.

    students march across brooklyn bridge
    Rallygoers marched across the Brooklyn Bridge to Manhattan after the Cadman Plaza event. Photo by Jonathan Portee

    While the repercussions for skipping the rally may not seem swift or severe, staff at the charters have said they worry about the condition of their working environments should they opt not to attend the rally.

    “I think that there is pressure. I know that it might not reflect directly on your employment, but it’ll reflect on your experience in the school building if you weren’t going to be here,” the associate said.

    CUNY law professor David Bloomfield told Gothamist that under laws governing nonprofits, charters can require staff to participate in demonstrations if they are advocating for the schools, rather than speaking in support or opposition to a political candidate.

    Documents obtained by a reporter for Labor New York showed that Zeta Charter elementary and middle schoolers had classroom instruction canceled for the day and instead were scheduled to participate in a “school-on-a-bus” civics lesson, suggesting the event was part of the school’s curriculum for the 2025-2026 academic year.

    charter school rally
    Some lawmakers are calling for an investigation of the event, which they said was a “misuse” of public funds. Photo by Jonathan Portee

    Pop-up tents for rally “marshals” to hand out water, snacks, and protest signs were scattered around Cadman Plaza Park. First-year parents and teachers showed little hesitation in sharing their excitement about the event, while members of the charter system with more than a year under their belt were often skittish about sharing their reasons for attending. 

    A day after the rally, two lawmakers — state Sens. John Liu and Shelley Mayer, who chair the senate’s education committee — called for an investigation of the event, which they said had been an “egregious misuse of instructional time and state funds.” 

    The pair said in a letter that the state provides public funding to charter schools “to educate students, not for political activism or for influencing elections.” If violations are uncovered, they said, the state should take back a portion of the funding it had provided to the participating charter schools. 

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    By Jonathan Portee

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  • LGBTQ+ voter education town hall held tonight in Los Angeles

    LGBTQ+ voter education town hall held tonight in Los Angeles

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    LOS ANGELES – As the world gets a little warmer and we settle into the Spring season, the Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation is proud to announce the return of our Youth Baseball and Softball Leagues for the Spring 2023 season.

    BASEBALL & SOFTBALL ARE BACK!

    Sign up for our Spring Sports Leagues, Coming to an LA County Parks Near You!

    REGISTER FOR YOUTH SPORTS LEAGUES TODAY!

    YOUTH BASEBALL 

    Photo Credit: County of Los Angeles

    Baseball season is right around the corner, now’s the perfect time to sign up your young athletes for our Youth Baseball Leagues! Our Baseball Leagues will provide an emphasis on learning fundamentals of Baseball, skill development, sportsmanship, teamwork, and fun. League will run for 10 weeks and consist of one weekday practice and one game every Saturday. Game score and league standing will be kept. Rules will be enforced. Registration fee will include uniform, award, and umpire. Qualifying teams will advance and participate in the playoffs.  

    Divisions & Dates:
    D3-D6: April 15 – June 12

    AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING PARKS
    Divisions 3 – 6

    NORTH AGENCY

    Castaic Sports Complex: 31230 N. Castaic Rd., Castaic 91384  | (661) 775 8865

    George Lane Park: 5520 W. Avenue, L-8, Quartz Hill, 93534 | (661) 722 7780

    Jackie Robinson Park: 8773 E. Avenue R, Littlerock, 93543 | (661) 944 2880

    Stephen Sorensen Park: 16801 E. Avenue P, Lake Los Angeles, 93591 | (661) 264 1249

    El Cariso: 13100 Hubbard Street, Sylmar, 91342 | (818) 367 5043

    Loma Alta: 3330 North Lincoln Avenue, Altadena, 91001 | (626) 398 5451

    Pearblossom Park: 33922 North 121st St East, Pearblossom, 93553 | (661) 944 2988

    Val Verde Park: 30300 Arlington St Castaic,  91384 | (661) 257 4014

    EAST AGENCY

    Arcadia Park: 405 S. Santa Anita Ave. Arcadia 91006 | (626) 821 4619

    Allen Martin Park: 14830 E. Giordano St. La Puente 91744 | (626) 918 5263

    Bassett Park: 510 Vineland Ave. Bassett | (626) 333 0959

    Charter Oak Park: 20261 E. Covina Blvd. Covina, 91723 | (626) 339 0411

    Dalton Park: 18867 E. Armstead St., Azusa, 91702 | (626) 852 1491

    Manzanita Park: 1747 S. Kwis Ave., Hacienda Heights, 91745 | (626) 336 6246

    Pathfinder Park: 18150 Pathfinder Rd., Rowland Heights, 91748  (562) 690 0933

    Pamela Park: 2236 Goodall Ave. Duarte, 91010 | (626) 357 1619

    Rimgrove Park: 747 North Rimgrove Dr. La Puente 91744 | (626) 330 8798

    Rowland Heights Park: 1500 Banida Ave. Rowland Heights, 91748 | (626) 912 6774

    San Angelo Park: 245 S. San Angelo Ave. La Puente 91746 | (626) 333 6162

    Sunshine Park: 515 S. Deepmead Ave. La Puente, 91744  | (626) 854 5559

    Steinmetz Park: 1545 S. Stimson Ave. Hacienda Heights, 91748 | (626) 855 5383

    Valleydale Park: 5225 N. Lark Ellen Ave., Azusa, CA 91702 – (626) 334-8020

    SOUTH AGENCY

    Amigo Park: 5700 Juarez Ave. Whittier, 90606 | (562) 908-4702

    La Mirada Park: 13701 South Adelfa Ave. La Mirada, 90638 | (562) 902-5645

    Mayberry Park: 13201 East Meyer Rd, Whittier, 90605 | (562) 944-9727

    Sorenson Park: 11419 Rosehedge Dr. Whittier, 90606 | (562) 908-7763


    GIRLS SOFTBALL 

    Girl’s Softball League will provide an emphasis on learning fundamentals of Softball, skill development, sportsmanship, teamwork, and fun. League will run for 10 weeks and consist of one weekday practice and one game every Saturday. Game score and league standing will be kept. Softball rules will be enforced. Registration fee will include uniform, award, and umpire. Qualifying teams will be advance and participate in the playoffs.

    Divisions & Dates

    D3 – D6: April 15 – June 12

    AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING PARKS
    DIVISIONS 3 – 6

    NORTH AGENCY

    George Lane Park: 5520 W. Avenue, L-8, Quartz Hill, 93534 | (661) 722 7780

    Jackie Robinson Park: 8773 E. Avenue R, Littlerock, 93543 | (661) 944 2880

    Stephen Sorensen Park: 16801 E. Avenue P, Lake Los Angeles, 93591 | (661) 264 1249

    El Cariso: 13100 Hubbard Street, Sylmar, 91342 | (818) 367 5043

    Loma Alta: 3330 North Lincoln Avenue, Altadena, 91001 | (626) 398 5451

    Pearblossom Park: 33922 North 121st St East, Pearblossom, 93553 | (661) 944 2988

    Val Verde Park: 30300 Arlington St Castaic,  91384 | (661) 257 4014

    EAST AGENCY

    Arcadia Park: 405 S. Santa Anita Ave. Arcadia 91006 | (626) 821 4619

    Allen Martin Park: 14830 E. Giordano St. La Puente 91744 | (626) 918 5263

    Bassett Park: 510 Vineland Ave. Bassett | (626) 333 0959

    Charter Oak Park: 20261 E. Covina Blvd. Covina, 91723 | (626) 339 0411

    Dalton Park: 18867 E. Armstead St., Azusa, 91702 | (626) 852 1491

    Manzanita Park: 1747 S. Kwis Ave., Hacienda Heights, 91745 | (626) 336 6246

    Pathfinder Park: 18150 Pathfinder Rd., Rowland Heights, 91748  (562) 690 0933

    Pamela Park: 2236 Goodall Ave. Duarte, 91010 | (626) 357 1619

    Rimgrove Park: 747 North Rimgrove Dr. La Puente 91744 | (626) 330 8798

    Rowland Heights Park: 1500 Banida Ave. Rowland Heights, 91748 | (626) 912 6774

    San Angelo Park: 245 S. San Angelo Ave. La Puente 91746 | (626) 333 6162

    Sunshine Park: 515 S. Deepmead Ave. La Puente, 91744  | (626) 854 5559

    Steinmetz Park: 1545 S. Stimson Ave. Hacienda Heights, 91748 | (626) 855 5383

    Valleydale Park: 5225 N. Lark Ellen Ave., Azusa, CA 91702 | (626) 334 8020

    SOUTH AGENCY

    Adventure Park: 10130 Gunn Ave. Whittier, CA – (562) 698 7645

    Amigo Park: 5700 Juarez Ave. Whittier, 90606 | (562) 908 4702

    Mayberry Park: 13201 East Meyer Rd, Whittier, 90605 | (562) 944 9727

    Sorenson Park: 11419 Rosehedge Dr. Whittier, 90606 | (562) 908 7763


    Photo Credit: County of Los Angeles

    Through an exciting partnership with the Dodgers Foundation, Dodgers Dreamteam (formerly Dodgers RBI) brings the sport of Baseball and Softball at a lower price! The goal of DDT is to provide an inclusive, barrier-free sports-based youth development program for communities that have historically been left out of consideration. 

    Divisions & Dates:

    April 15 – June 12

    Divisions 3 – 6

    AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING PARKS

    EAST AGENCY

    Belvedere Park: 4914 E. Cesar Chavez Ave. Los Angeles, 90022 |  (323) 260 2342

    Obregon Park: 4021 E. 1st St., Los Angeles, CA 90063 | (323) 260 2344

    Salazar Park: 3864 Whittier Blvd. Los Angeles, 90023 | (323) 260 2330

    Saybrook Park: 6250 E. Northside Dr. Los Angeles, 90022 | (323) 724 8546

    SOUTH AGENCY

    Alondra Park: 3850 W. Manhattan Beach Blvd. Lawndale, 90260 | (310) 217-8366

    Athens Park: 12603 S. Broadway Los Angeles, 90061 | (323) 241 6700 

    Bethune Park: 1244 E. 61st St. Los Angeles, 90001 | (323) 846 1895

    Bodger Park: 14900 S. Yukon Ave. Hawthorne, 90250 | (310) 676 2085

    Campanella Park: 14812 S Stanford Ave, Compton, 90220 | (310) 603 3720

    Carver Park: 1400 E 118th St, Los Angeles, 90059 | (323) 357 3030

    Del Aire Park: 12601 Isis Ave, Hawthorne, 90251 | (310) 643 4976

    Helen Keller Park: 12521 Vermont Ave, Los Angeles, 90044 |  (323) 241-6702

    Lennox Park: 10828 Condon Ave, Lennox, 90304 | (310) 419 6712

    Mona Park: 2291 E 121st St, Compton, 90222 | (310) 603 3729

    Franklin D. Roosevelt Park 7600 Graham Ave. Los Angeles, 90001 | (323) 586 5888

    Ted Watkins Park: 1335 E 103rd St Los Angeles, 90002 | (323) 357 3032

    Victoria Park: 419 M.L.K. Jr. St, Carson, 90746 | (310) 217 8370


    REGISTER NOW!

    For questions, contact LA County Parks at [email protected] or (626) 588-5364.

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    Gisselle Palomera

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  • Scenes From the Trump Trial, the NBA’s New Rights Deal, the Afterlife of the Alt-Weeklies, and Remembering Howie Schwab

    Scenes From the Trump Trial, the NBA’s New Rights Deal, the Afterlife of the Alt-Weeklies, and Remembering Howie Schwab

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    Bryan and David start the show by remembering Howie Schwab, who died over the weekend. They reflect on his legacy as a producer, researcher, and the final boss on Stump the Schwab (1:00). Then they discuss the Donald Trump trial, at which cameras were barred from the courtroom and Trump struggled to stay awake (9:41). Afterward, they get into upcoming bids for NBA rights (15:56). They then talk about the Summer Olympics, how much of it they’ll watch, and who will be featured (27:43). Later, during the Notebook Dump, they bring up the afterlife of the alt-weeklies (36:35).

    Plus, the Overworked Twitter Joke of the Week and David Shoemaker Guesses the Strained-Pun Headline.

    Hosts: Bryan Curtis and David Shoemaker
    Producer: Brian H. Waters

    Subscribe: Spotify / Apple Podcasts / Stitcher / RSS

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    Bryan Curtis

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  • US aid ‘indispensable’ for defense of Ukraine, Scholz says

    US aid ‘indispensable’ for defense of Ukraine, Scholz says

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    Citing the EU’s decision to allocate more funding for Ukraine at the extraordinary European Council summit last week, the German chancellor urged the U.S. Congress to do its part to defend Ukraine by green-lighting the further aid proposed by Biden.

    Scholz said congressional approval of the aid package would “send the right message to the Russian president that his hopes are in vain, that he simply has to wait long enough for the support of Ukraine’s friends in Europe, North America and elsewhere to wane.”

    NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, meanwhile, said the defense alliance needs to improve its military capabilities and be prepared for a decades-long conflict with Russia.

    If Russian President Vladimir Putin “wins in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that Russian aggression will not spread to other countries,” Stoltenberg warned in an interview with German newspaper Welt Am Sonntag.

    “We have to prepare ourselves for a confrontation that could last decades,” he said. “We need to restore and expand our industrial base more quickly so that we can increase deliveries to Ukraine and replenish our own stocks,” Stoltenberg said.

    Germany’s Scholz, asked about the ongoing crisis in the Middle East and Israel’s planned offensive in Rafah, said that the Israeli government needed to conduct military operations in a balanced manner. “I have already said it very precisely: the type of warfare must meet the demands that Israel makes on itself, but which are also imposed by international law,” Scholz said.



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    Aitor Hernández-Morales

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  • Music publishing: What songwriters need to know – ReverbNation Blog

    Music publishing: What songwriters need to know – ReverbNation Blog

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    If you create original music, it’s always helpful to understand your rights and revenue sources.

    The guide below will provide a high-level view of music publishing, and spotlight the most relevant points for songwriters.

    Music publishing is the business of songs.

    It’s the work of promoting and earning money from composition copyrights. NOT from recordings, but rather the song that underlies any recording. In fact, the term “publishing” comes from the days before recorded music existed, back when the owners of songs published sheet music and songbooks. 

    Of course today a recording is often the thing that delivers a song to the marketplace, and to our ears. Streams, downloads, usage in social video, radio plays, placements on TV and film, game soundtracks, and even physical formats like vinyl and CD — they’re all means of transmitting a recording. Which, in turn, contains the song. So there is often a relationship between recorded tracks and the underlying songwriting when it comes to generating revenue. 

    But music publishing specifically deals with the song side of that revenue equation. 

    What is a “song?”

    That might sound like a silly question, but the answer is crucial to the monetization of compositions:

    From the perspective of music copyright, a song consists of the melody and lyrics. If it’s an instrumental composition, it’s just the melody. 

    Chord progression? Nope. 

    Groove, tempo, or key? Nope. 

    Synth pads and drum patterns? Definitely not. 

    Chord progressions are considered a basic building-block of music, similar to colors for a painter, or materials for an architect. So you can’t copyright chord sequences, only the melody and lyrics that tie those chords together. 

    Groove, tempo, and key are foundational aspects of an arrangement, but a “song” can be arranged in numerous ways. So arrangements aren’t songs. 

    Particular instruments like synth or drums? Effects and EQ? Nope. Those are production and arrangement choices, which can exist separately from the song. 

    It’s sometimes difficult to illustrate this point because so much music in the 21st century has blurred the lines between production and songwriting. For some artists, those two processes are the same creative act. 

    However, you could take any new chart-topping song and play it with an acoustic guitar around a campfire, or arrange it for an a cappela group, and the foundational elements are what remain — melody and lyrics. That’s the song.

    Or imagine there’s no such thing as recorded music, and your music only exists as sheet music. The notes on the score, the words on the page. That’s the song. 

    As discussed in our guide to music copyright, there are two main forms of intellectual property rights that apply to musicians:

    1. The composition copyright — These are rights related to the song. They are owned and controlled by the songwriter(s), unless those writers have a relationship with a music publisher to help them monetize the song and collect royalties. 
    2. The sound recording (or “master recording”) copyright — These are rights related to the ownership of a specific recording. Recordings are usually owned by labels, or the artists and producers who made the track. 

    If you’re an artist who records and writes your own music, you own BOTH rights listed above, as long as you haven’t signed away any rights or ownership to a label or publisher. If you record cover songs, you own the master recording but not the composition. 

    And again, music publishing is the business of making money from the composition copyright. 

    The 3 main kinds of music publishing royalties 

    Music publishing is a complicated business, so I’ll try to keep it simple. 

    There are — generally — three kinds of music publishing royalties you can earn from your composition copyright:

    1. Mechanical Royalties

    The name comes from a time when songs were mechanically reproduced in a physical format. And the publisher was paid a royalty for each of the units pressed. That’s still true for vinyl, CD, cassette, etc. 

    But mechanicals are also generated in the digital age, via streaming. And you can collect these royalties through certain rights societies or a collective such as the MLC

    In the world of music publishing, it’s deemed a digital reproduction of the song whenever a listener actively chooses to stream a certain song. “Choose” is perhaps loosely defined, since playlist listening can generate mechanicals. But it’s worth pointing out that non-interactive streams through digital radio services such as Pandora do NOT generate mechanical royalties. 

    Instead, they generate…

    2. Performance Royalties

    These royalties are paid for “public performances” of your song, including:

    • Radio play
    • Broadcast in public places such as a restaurant 
    • Streams
    • Live performances at venues

    As you can probably tell, “public performances” is an imprecise term, since you’re not expected to perform the song live in order to generate royalties (although live performances ARE included).

    Nor are all performances or broadcasts “public,” since some people are streaming music with headphones on. Instead of “performance,” I tend to think about broadcast or projection of a song into a listening space. 

    You can collect Performance Royalties from a P.R.O. (performance rights organization) such as ASCAP, BMI, PRS, GEMA, etc.

    3. Sync Licensing Fees

    When tracks are licensed for placement in film, TV, games, and commercials, there are actually two rights at play, and two fees being negotiated:

    The recording (owned by the artist or label), and the song (owned by the songwriter or publisher). 

    The fact that these are separate rights may illustrate why there are so many cover songs on TV shows. Because licensing the most famous version of a tune can be expensive. 

    If a music supervisor wants a Rolling Stones song, but doesn’t have the budget for the composition AND the original recording, well maybe they have the budget for the composition and an indie artist’s rendition.

    Now, if you wrote and recorded your own song entirely, you obviously lose the advantage of being… the Rolling Stones. You don’t have a composition in high-demand. But you have a different kind of advantage: Speed!

    Because you own the rights to both the track and the song, you’re able to quickly grant permissions and all negotiations are streamlined. That’s why so much independent music ends up in modern media, not just because it conserves the production’s budget, but because productions move fast and music supervisors don’t want to wait around and have 10 different meetings, calls, or email threads going just to clear one song. 

    One last interesting note about sync licensing and music publishing, when you DO get an  original song placed, you’ll receive an upfront fee. But certain usages such as TV broadcast will ALSO generate the performance royalties discussed above. 

    What kind of publishing arrangement is best?

    Like many aspects of the music business, there’s a stratification of services around songwriter rights. From basic royalty collection for unknown indies, all the way up to powerhouse publishers leveraging the catalogs of chart-topping legends. 

    The level of publishing assistance you need depends upon your songs, of course. How much revenue are they already generating? What potential there is for future earnings? 

    Basic publishing support for new songwriters

    When you’re first starting out, you’ll want to build a publishing rights foundation. This would include:

    • Affiliating with a Performance Rights Organization
    • Registering your songs with that PRO
    • Affiliating with the MLC or a similar organization to collect mechanical royalties (in some cases this may be your existing PRO. Though in the USA, organizations like ASCAP and BMI do NOT collect mechanicals.)
    • Exploring sync licensing opportunities, either on your own or by including your music in a pre-cleared licensing catalog

    Publishing administration for emerging songwriters

    Once your music starts to gain traction, it may be time to professionalize your songwriter rights in a more focused way. 

    A publishing administration service is able to act on your behalf to collect your publishing royalties and possibly seek new opportunities for your songs. They do not claim ownership of your songs, but are empowered on a shorter-term basis to act as your publisher.

    However, be aware that the administration service will take an additional cut of your publishing royalties beyond what the PROs and mechanical collection societies keep. 

    An actual publishing deal

    When your songs show enough potential, doors will open to explore a publishing deal. 

    These deals can be structured in various ways, but the simple explanation is that you give up some (or all) of your rights in exchange for more revenue opportunity. When a music publisher has shared or total ownership of your song, they’re incentivized to work harder for that song’s success. 

    To be clear, just because you’ve reached the level where a publishing deal is realistic, doesn’t mean you NEED a traditional publishing deal. All careers are built different. There are good deals and bad deals. And if you’ve already found success for your songwriting without a publisher, it’s possible to sustain that momentum without outside help. 

    However, if a great publisher is interested in your songs, it’s possible they could add fuel to the fire — so whatever ownership you sacrifice might be worth it for greater revenue, more exposure, and possible advances.

    Like with all things, just understand the tradeoffs before you ink any deals!


    Conclusion

    Well there it is: A bird’s-eye view of music publishing.

    (Plus a few moments where we zoomed in close for detail.)

    Hopefully this article gives you a greater sense of your rights and revenue opportunities when it comes to original songwriting. 

    If you want to learn more about your music rights that extends beyond the composition, check out our practical guide to music copyright

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    Chris Robley

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  • Yemen: US and EU ignored our warnings about Houthis to court Iran for nuclear deal

    Yemen: US and EU ignored our warnings about Houthis to court Iran for nuclear deal

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    “We have been saying this a long time,” he said on a visit to Brussels. “I have been here three times before and always we said if we didn’t do this … the Houthis will never stop. The Houthis have an ideology, have a project. Iran has a project in the region and unfortunately, the others do not respond.”

    He expressed frustration that the EU and U.S. spent years pouring their diplomatic energies into wooing Tehran for a nuclear deal, rather than exerting more pressure on the Islamic Republic to stop supporting their Houthi allies, fellow Shi’ite Muslims who were seeking to impose what he labeled a “theocratic, totalitarian” police state.  

    The idea behind the nuclear talks was that Tehran should limit its nuclear ambitions in return for sanctions relief, but an accord proved out of reach.  

    No one paid attention

    Bin Mubarak noted international momentum for action — which has included U.S. and British strikes on Houthi targets — did not finally come about “because of what [the Houthis] did to the Yemenis. They killed thousands of Yemenis. Not because of the atrocities they committed, raping women … jailing women … Just look at what Houthis did. No one is paying attention.”   

    He explained Western diplomacy toward Iran was supposed to have focused on three elements: the nuclear program, Tehran’s support for regional proxies, and its ballistic missile program. The fixation on the first, to the detriment of the other two, means the West is now facing an adversary in Yemen that has been very well armed by Iran, bin Mubarak complained.  

    “[Iran’s] Shahed drones, the first time we started hearing the European Union talking about it, they were being used in Ukraine. But before that, for years, we were saying Iran is supplying Houthis and drones are attacking Yemeni people. No one was believing [it],” he continued, adding that Houthi drone strikes stopped Yemeni oil exports in October 2022.    



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    Christian Oliver

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  • Music copyright: A practical guide for musicians – ReverbNation Blog

    Music copyright: A practical guide for musicians – ReverbNation Blog

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    Your music is more than just lyrics, melodies, hooks, and waveforms. 

    It’s intellectual property!

    Do you record your own tracks? Do you write your own songs? Then YOU control your music copyright. (Assuming you haven’t signed certain rights away to a label or publisher). 

    The flow of money through the music business is mostly based on copyright. So understanding the power of music copyright can significantly impact your career, helping you control, protect, and monetize your original work. 

    In this guide, we’ll delve into:

    • The essentials of music copyright
    • The different kinds of music copyright
    • How to register the copyright for your music
    • And how to leverage your rights to generate income as an artist, songwriter, or producer

    Let’s begin with some copyright basics.

    Music copyright is a collection of rights associated with the ownership of intellectual property.

    Copyright grants exclusive privileges to the creator(s) and rights-holder(s) of a particular work for a limited time.

    Your rights include:

    • The right to reproduce that work
    • The right to be credited as the work’s creator (the “right of attribution”)
    • The right to approve or deny “derivative works”
    • The right to distribute the work
    • The right to perform the work publicly
    • The right to license the work

    Because you are, presumably, a self-releasing musician who write and records original music, it’s simple. You OWN the songs you write. And you OWN the tracks you record.

    Those assets are often referred to as the “composition” and the “sound recording.” And your ownership of a song or track empowers you to exploit your copyright. Meaning, you can put your copyright to work.

    • Earn money from the usage of your music
    • Have control over how your music is used*
    • Collect damages in the event that someone uses your music unlawfully
    • Transfer rights to another entity via sale, licensing, or assigning

    * You CANNOT prevent another artist from performing your song live or distributing a cover version of your song, assuming you’ve already commercially released that song. However, you must be paid the associated publishing royalties for those usages.

    1. Composition Copyright— Related to the music and lyrics that underlie any particular recording or performance of a song. The business of making money from composition copyrights is called Music Publishing.
    2. Sound Recording Copyright — Related to a specific recorded version of a composition. The business of making money from sound recording copyrights is often thought of as the domain of record labels, though the rise of independent music over the last 30 years has altered that assumption to some degree.

    Composition copyrights are typically owned by songwriters and publishers. If you write original music and have never signed away those rights to a publisher or other entity, you own your songs!

    Sound Recordings copyrights are usually owned by artists or labels. If you self-produced your music, or if you funded your own recording project and never signed-away those rights to a label or other entity, you own your tracks!

    Copyright, as discussed above, is a bundle of rights associated with the making and ownership of a sufficiently-original creative work. 

    Trademark is a name, phrase, symbol, or logo closely associated with the provider of a good, service, or artwork. When it comes to music, your band name could be trademarked, whereas a song or recording has a copyright. In the USA, you can apply to obtain a registered trademark at https://www.uspto.gov/

    Patent is the protection of inventions and processes, as well as improvements to those processes. Patents are meant to forward the interests of technological innovation. If you came up with a new kind of musical instrument, for instance, you may be able to patent it. 

    Technically, you own your musical copyright the moment you capture the composition or recording in a fixed medium. This could be something as crude as a voice memo on your phone. Or typing your lyrics to a friend in an email. And in many countries, this is sufficient to fully establish your copyright. However, things are slightly different in the USA.

    Despite owning your copyright from the moment your music provably exists, it’s still advisable in the USA to register your copyright. This step helps you secure the most protection for your work.

    You’ll want to register with the U.S. Copyright Office. Because registration is necessary before you can file a lawsuit against any entity who’s infringed upon your rights. 

    By registering your copyright early (preferably before your music is released publicly), you’ll have additional benefits in the event of intentional infringement. This includes rewards of up to $150,000 and attorney fees. 

    However, approval of a formal registration can take a while. So I don’t usually advise that people WAIT for approval before releasing music.

    There is no such thing as comprehensive, global copyright protection. Each country has its own laws and practices. 

    But through international treaties such as the Berne Convention, partner nations can help to enforce one another’s copyright protections for citizens. 

    If creators outside the United States want full protection in the event of infringement that happens within the USA, they can register their copyright with the USCO. 

    There are some exceptions to the rule, but in general, copyright lasts for the duration of the author’s life PLUS another 70 years. For songs or recordings with multiple creators, copyright protection expires 70 years after the death of the last-surviving author.

    The “poor man’s copyright” involves mailing a composition or recording to yourself via registered mail with a dated postmark. Then you leave the package sealed. If your copyright is infringed upon, you bring the unopened package before a judge.

    Today this practice is somewhat obsolete. Because while “poor man’s copyright” may provide some evidence that your work was created before the infringing work, the Supreme Court of the USA ruled that in order to get legal protection, you need to register your copyright with the USCO.  

    It’s been stated a few times above that you’ll receive additional protections from registering your copyright. But here’s a more detailed explanation of those benefits:

    If you file your registration AFTER your music has been used unlawfully, you can’t bring a lawsuit against the infringer until the application is approved by the USCO. This can take between 3-9 months, assuming there are no other issues with your registration forms. 

    After approval you can file a lawsuit. And in the event that you win the case, you are only entitled to receive between $200 and $30,000 per work. In some instances, that won’t even cover your legal fees. 

    Contrast that with an early registration. You can file a lawsuit immediately in federal or small claims court, and no attorney is required. You also stand to receive up to $150,000 in damages for intentional copyright infringement. Plus attorney fees. 

    To register your copyright in the USA, visit the U.S. Copyright Office website.

    Go to their registration portal and submit the proper form from the options below:

    • The PA form — short for “performing arts” — can be used to register a composition (song and lyrics) or collection of songs. 
    • The SR form — short for “sound recording” — can be used to register… a sound recording (the recorded track or album).

    IMPORTANT: If the creators and owners are exactly the same for every song in a collection, you can use the SR form to register BOTH the sound recording(s) and the composition(s) at the same time. 

    As the owner of your work, there are various avenues to generate income, including:

    Performance Royalties

    This is a form of music publishing royalty.

    It’s owed to songwriters and publishers when their compositions are played on the radio, performed in public, and more.

    To collect these royalties, you should affiliate yourself with your country’s performing rights organization (PRO) such as:

    Mechanical Royalties

    This is another form of music publishing royalty, owed to songwriters and publishers when their compositions are streamed, downloaded, or mechanically reproduced in physical formats such as CD and vinyl.

    Many PROs do NOT collect mechanicals, so you should affiliate yourself with mechanical collection societies such as the MLC

    Sound Recording Royalties

    As the owner of your sound recordings, you control “master rights” and can get paid when your tracks are streamed, downloaded, synced in TV or film, and sold on CD or vinyl.

    You can think of these royalties as the typical revenue sources of labels. Because, as a self-releasing artist, you are acting as your own label.

    Neighbouring Rights Revenue

    This is another type of royalty associated with the recording, NOT the composition. It’s called “neighbouring” rights because it neighbours the world of publishing (songwriter rights), but is tied instead to the usage of the track.

    In many countries around the world, radio airplay generates revenue for the recording rights holder and artist. However, this is NOT the case in the USA, where only publishers earn money from terrestrial radio play.

    But in the USA, as the owner of your sound recordings, or as the primary artist who performed on them, you CAN collect an additional kind of revenue similar to neighbouring rights when your tracks are played via digital radio, satellite radio, and other forms of non-interactive music streaming.

    To collect neighbouring rights revenue, check out organizations such as:

    Sync Licensing Revenue

    Explore licensing options for your compositions and sound recordings.

    When your music is placed in movies, TV shows, commercials, video games, and online platforms like YouTube, you stand to earn both publishing royalties AND a fee for licensing the track.

    Cover Versions

    If another artist wants to record one of your songs that you’ve already released, you CAN’T say no. It’s just one of those odd little caveats to copyright. But you ARE owed money… which we actually already mentioned above: Mechanical Royalties!

    Samples

    Unlike cover songs, you do have ALL the power when it comes to someone else being able to sample one of your recordings.

    And you can say yes, no, or anything in between. You set the terms, and you should be compensated for both the track and the underlying composition being used. 

    Derivative Works

    You also have the ability to permit or deny someone the right to incorporate your music into one of their new compositions. Similar to samples, you set the terms. 

    Conclusion

    Copyright ownership is yours the moment you fix your original music in some form of permanent media. But now you also know there may be additional benefits to formal copyright registration, plus how to file that registration. You also know the various forms of music revenue you should be earning for the usage of your copyrighted material. 

    Armed with all of that, you should be better empowered to protect your work, manage your catalog, and profit from your music!

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    Chris Robley

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  • Netanyahu trapped by clashing demands from war cabinet and hawks

    Netanyahu trapped by clashing demands from war cabinet and hawks

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    TEL AVIV — As he tries to cling to power, Benjamin Netanyahu is being buffeted by contradictory demands over the direction of the war in Gaza. His war cabinet is increasingly urging a cease-fire deal to be struck with Hamas — to secure the return of Israeli hostages — while lawmakers in his own Likud party are pushing in the opposite direction and pressing for military operations to remain unrelenting.

    Unable to square the circle, the Israeli leader appears to have chosen to postpone decisions about the direction of the war, but it is doubtful they can be delayed for much longer. A public groundswell is starting to build for military operations to be put on hold and for a cease-fire to be reached with Hamas for the release of more than a hundred Israelis still being held in Gaza.

    There’s rising alarm about the captives’ treatment and the conditions they are enduring. Thousands of Israelis took to the streets over the weekend calling for the hostages to be prioritized over the military campaign. And in a television interview Thursday, a war cabinet minister, Gadi Eisenkot, a former and highly popular chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), warned the only way to save hostages in the near term is through a deal even if that comes at a high price.

    Eisenkot, whose 25-year-old son and 19-year-old nephew died fighting in Gaza in December, also appeared to criticize Netanyahu’s management of the war with Hamas, suggesting the Israeli leadership is not telling the Israeli public the truth about the conflict and that talk of destroying Hamas is over-blown. A complete victory over the militant group is unrealistic, he said.

    “Whoever speaks of the absolute defeat [of Hamas in Gaza] and of it no longer having the will or the capability [to harm Israel], is not speaking the truth. That is why we should not tell tall tales,” Eisenkot said.

    Eisenkot also said elections should be held soon to restore public trust in the Israeli government following the devastating October 7 attack on southern Israel by Hamas. Eisenkot is seen by some as a future prime minister candidate, favored by some even over Benny Gantz, a former defense minister. The two are leaders of the centrist National Unity Party and agreed to join Netanyahu’s war cabinet after October 7 as a demonstration of national solidarity.

    The Eisenkot interview, broadcast by Israel’s Channel 12 News, was especially damaging as it was broadcast hours after Netanyahu rejected in a press conference the idea of holding elections in the middle of a war. Netanyahu said he could continue in power well into 2025. He vowed to “bring about a complete victory” over Hamas.

    Netanyahu’s indecision is also infuriating his own lawmakers — they worry there is a lack of defined goals beyond the slogan of “destroying Hamas,” and fear the prime minister will cave to pressure for a cease-fire. And they complain about a throttling back of military operations, which has seen the IDF move away from large-scale ground operations and air strikes to conduct more targeted missions.

    Tactical transition

    Senior Israeli military officials first confirmed on January 8 the tactical transition, with military spokesman Daniel Hagari saying the IDF would reduce troop numbers in the Palestinian enclave and conduct “one-off raids there instead of maintaining wide-scale maneuvers.”

    Described as Phase 3 in the military campaign, officials in briefings cast the transition as necessary to give reservists some rest for the long haul in a war they say will take months, and to return others to their jobs to help the country’s ailing economy. The officials also said some troops needed to be redeployed to Israel’s tense northern border, where Hezbollah attacks have prompted Israel to threaten a ground campaign in Lebanon.   

    But the reasons given for the adjustment are disputed by some Likud lawmakers, including by Danny Danon, a former U.S. envoy to the U.N. He and others view the shift more than anything as an effort to placate the Biden administration and European governments anxious about the civilian death toll in Gaza. And there’s mounting talk of a possible future party leadership challenge to Netanyahu.

    “We hear a lot of declarations both from the prime minister and [Defense Minister] Yoav Gallant almost every day about how we’re going to eradicate and destroy Hamas. But when you look at what’s happening now, I’m not sure it’s going in that direction,” Danon told POLITICO in an exclusive interview. “If he will not win the war, then I’m sure there will be another leader from the right that will step in because that will be the time,” he added.

    Danon has twice challenged Netanyahu for the party leadership, in 2007 and 2014, but waves off a question about whether he will again seek the party’s leadership, saying merely that Likud is growing uneasy. “I speak with a lot of people and I hear them. They demand victory,” he said. “He’s being tested. Netanyahu has done a lot for Israel over the years, but he will be remembered by the way he finishes the war.”

    Danon said the only acceptable conclusion to the war is “either Hamas surrenders or it is destroyed.” Military pressure is what led to the release of some hostages in December, he said. “What has happened now is that we have changed the way we are conducting the operation because of the pressure coming from the U.S.,” he added.

    With opinion polls suggesting Likud has lost a third of its electoral support since October 7, Danon suggested victory could restore the party’s fortunes as well as being necessary for the security of Israel. “We need to hit Hamas so hard they will not be able to come against us anymore,” he said, adding that prime ministers, including Netanyahu have too often pulled up short before and announced Israel has been made safe and its enemies have now been deterred only for attacks to resume. “You cannot play that game anymore,” he said.

    Party unease

    With Likud members becoming increasingly restless, Netanyahu is more and more focusing on trying to tamp down internal party dissent. “It is all about Likud at the moment,” said a senior Israeli official, who was granted anonymity to talk about a sensitive issue. The official acknowledged that talk of a party rebellion might be premature and that Likud critics would have to calculate that an attempt to oust Netanyahu could ultimately trigger early elections that would see Likud lose badly. Nonetheless, the Israeli leader is agitated about the unease within the ranks of a party that he molded over the years in his own image, stacking it with loyalists and promoting those who share his views. 

    Likud disapproval partly explains Netanyahu’s strong push back last week on Washington’s readout of a phone conversation between the Israeli leader and U.S. President Joe Biden — their first since December. Israeli officials on Saturday took issue with Biden’s remarks after the call in which he said a two-state solution may still be possible even while Netanyahu is in power. Biden told reporters some “types” of two-state solution may be acceptable to the Israeli premier, even though Netanyahu has frequently ruled out the notion of establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel.

    Netanyahu’s office reiterated his rigid opposition in a statement sent to POLITICO following Biden’s take. “In his conversation with President Biden, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his policy that after Hamas is destroyed Israel must retain security control over Gaza to ensure that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel, a requirement that contradicts the demand for Palestinian sovereignty,” his office said.

    A two-state solution is anathema for the right-wing of the Likud party. 

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  • Germany’s far-right AfD is soaring. Can a ban stop it?

    Germany’s far-right AfD is soaring. Can a ban stop it?

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    BERLIN — As the far-right Alternative for Germany continues to rise — and its radicalism becomes increasingly pronounced — a growing chorus of mainstream politicians is asking whether the best way to stop the party is to try to ban it.

    The debate kicked off in earnest after Saskia Esken, the co-chief of the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD), came out earlier this month in favor of discussing a ban — if only, as she put it, to “shake voters” out of their complacency.

    Since then, politicians from across the political spectrum have weighed in on whether a legal effort to ban Alternative for Germany (AfD), while possible under German law, would be tactically smart — or only further fuel the party’s rise.

    Like so much of German politics, the conversation is colored by the country’s Nazi past. In a society mindful that Adolf Hitler initially gained strength at the ballot box, with the Nazis winning a plurality of votes in federal elections before seizing power, a growing number of political leaders, particularly on the left, view a prohibition of the AfD — a party they view as a dire threat to Germany’s democracy — as an imperative rooted in historical experience.

    Others fear the attempt would backfire by allowing the AfD to depict their mainstream opponents as undermining the democratic will of the German people, desperate to ban a party they can’t beat.

    Indeed, the AfD appears to be trying to turn the debate to its tactical advantage.

    “Calls for the AfD to be banned are completely absurd and expose the anti-democratic attitude of those making these demands,” said Alice Weidel, co-leader of the party, in a written statement to POLITICO. “The repeated calls for a ban show that the other parties have long since run out of substantive arguments against our political proposals.”

    The debate is assuming greater urgency in a key year in which the AfD appears set to do better than ever in June’s European Parliament election as well as in three state elections in eastern Germany in September. The party is currently in second place with 23 percent support in national polls; across all the states of the former East Germany, not including Berlin, the AfD is currently leading in polls.

    Calls for a party ban grew louder this week following revelations that AfD members attended a secretive meeting of right-wing extremists where a “master plan” for deporting millions of people, including migrants and “unassimilated citizens,” was discussed. The news sent shockwaves across the country, with many drawing parallels to similar plans made by the Nazis. One of the people reportedly in attendance was Roland Hartwig, a former parliamentarian and now a close personal aide to Weidel, the party’s co-leader.

    In a post on X, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suggested it was a matter for the German judiciary.

    “Learning from history is not just lip service,” he said. “Democrats must stand together.”

    Many of the AfD’s most extreme leaders operate in eastern Germany, where the party is also the most popular. In two of the three states where the AfD will be competing in state elections next year — Thuringia and Saxony — state-level intelligence authorities have labeled local party branches as “secured extremist” — a designation that strengthens legal arguments for a ban.

    Saskia Esken of the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) called for a ban on the AfD party to ‘shake’ up complacent voters | Michele Tantussi/Getty Images

    Germany’s constitution allows for bans of parties that “seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order” — essentially allowing the state to use anti-democratic means to prevent an authoritarian party from corroding democracy from within.

    In reality, the legal hurdle for imposing a ban is very high. Germany’s constitutional court has only done it twice: The Socialist Reich Party, an heir to the Nazi party, was banned in 1952, while the Communist Party of Germany was prohibited in 1956.

    More recently, in 2017, the court ruled that a neo-Nazi party known as the National Democratic Party (NPD), while meeting the ideological criteria for a prohibition, was too fringe to ban, as it lacked popular support and therefore the power to endanger German democracy.

    Given the AfD’s poll numbers, however, an effort to ban it would pose an entirely different dilemma: How would politicians handle the backlash from the party’s many supporters?

    Germany’s postwar democracy has arguably never faced a greater test, and politicians — as well as the public — remain divided over how to respond.

    Center-right conservatives, who are leading in national polls, tend to view a ban attempt unfavorably.

    “Such sham debates are grist to the AfD’s mill,” Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union, told the Münchner Merkur newspaper. In response to Esken, the SPD leader who favors exploring a ban, Merz added: “Does the SPD chairwoman seriously believe that you can simply ban a party that reaches 30 percent in the polls? That’s a frightening suppression of reality.”

    For the SPD, the stakes in terms of their political survival are much higher. The party has experienced a sharp decline in its popularity, and in two states in Germany’s east it is dangerously close to falling below the 5 percent hurdle needed to win seats in state parliaments.

    Even within the SPD —  a party whose history of resistance to the Nazis is a source of great internal pride —  there is sharp disagreement over whether a ban is a good idea.

    “If we ban a party that we don’t like, but which is still leading in the polls, it will lead to even greater solidarity with it,” Carsten Schneider, a social democrat who serves as federal commissioner for eastern Germany, told the Süddeutsche Zeitung. “And even from people who are not AfD sympathizers or voters, the collateral damage would be very high.”

    Peter Wilke contributed reporting

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  • The ‘dirty dozen’ of Davos

    The ‘dirty dozen’ of Davos

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    It’s that time of year again: Leaders, business titans, philanthropists and celebs descend on the Swiss ski town of Davos to discuss the fate of the world and do deals/shots with the global elite at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

    This year’s theme: “Rebuilding trust.” Prescient, given the dumpster fire the world seems to be turning into lately, both literally (climate change) and figuratively (where to even begin?).

    As always, the Davos great and good will be rubbing shoulders with some of the world’s absolute top-drawer dirtbags. While there’s been a distinct dearth of Russian oligarchs in attendance at the WEF since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Donald Trump will be tied up with the Iowa caucus, there are still plenty of would-be autocrats, dictators, thugs, extortionists, misery merchants, spoilers and political pariahs on the Davos guest list.

    1. Argentine President Javier Milei

    Known as the Donald Trump of Argentina — and also as “The Madman” and “The Wig” — the chainsaw-wielding Javier Milei has it all: a fanatical supporter base, background as a TV shock jock, libertarian anarcho-capitalist policies (except when it comes to abortion), and a … memorable … hairdo.

    A long-time Davos devotee (he’s been attending the WEF for years), Milei’s libertarian policies have turned from kooky thought bubbles to concerning reality after he was elected president of South America’s second-largest economy, riding a wave of discontent with the political establishment (sound familiar?). The question now is how far Milei will go in delivering on his campaign promises to hack back public service and state spending, close the Argentine central bank and drop the peso.

    If you do get stuck talking to Milei in the congress center or on the slopes, here are some conversation starters …

    Milei’s likes: 1) American mobster Al Capone — “a hero.” 2) His cloned English Mastiff dogs — his advisers. 3) Spreading the gospel on tantric sex. 4) Selling human organs on the open market.

    Milei’s dislikes: 1) Pope Francis — “a filthy leftist” and “communist turd” — though the Milei administration has recently invited him back to Argentina to visit. 2) Taxes — insisting (incorrectly) Jesus didn’t pay ’em. 3) Sex education — a Marxist plot to destroy the family. 4) Fighting climate change — a hoax, naturally.

    2. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

    Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event, accompanied by a giant posse of top Saudi officials.

    It’s the ultimate redemption arc for the repressive authoritarian ruler of a country with an appalling human rights record — who, according to United States intelligence, personally ordered the brutal assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. 

    Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event | Leon Neal/Getty Images

    Perhaps MBS would still be a WEF pariah — consigned to rubbing shoulders with mere B-listers at his own Davos in the desert — if it were not for that other one-time Davos-darling-turned-persona-non-grata: Russian President Vladimir Putin. By launching his invasion of Ukraine, which killed thousands of civilians and hundreds of thousands of troops, Putin managed to push the West back into MBS’ embrace. Guess it’s all just oil under the bridge now.

    Here’s a piece of free advice: Try to avoid being caught getting a signature MBS fist-bump. Unless, of course, you’re the next person on our list …

    3. Jared Kushner, founder of Affinity Partners

    Jared Kushner is the closest anyone on the mountain is likely to come to Trump, the former — and possibly future — billionaire baron-cum-anti-elitist president of the United States of America. 

    On the one hand, a chat with The Donald’s son-in-law in the days just after the Iowa caucus would probably be quite a get for the Davos devotee. On other hand … it’s Jared Kushner.

    The 43-year-old, who is married to Ivanka Trump and served as a senior adviser to the former president during his time in office, leveraged his stint in the White House to build up a lucrative consulting career, focused mainly on the Middle East.

    Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is largely funded through Gulf countries. That includes a $2 billion investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, led by bin Salman — which was, coincidentally, pushed through despite objections by the crown prince’s own advisers

    Kushner struck up a friendship and alliance with MBS during his father-in-law’s term in office, raising major conflict-of-interest suspicions for the Trump administration — especially when the then-U.S. president refused to condemn the Saudi leader in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, despite the CIA concluding he was directly involved.

    4. Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president

    What does an autocrat do with a breakaway state within his country’s borders? Take advantage of Russia’s attention being elsewhere along with the EU’s thirst for his gas to launch a lightning-fast offensive, seize control, deport those pesky ancestral residents, lock up any rascally reporters — and then call a snap election to capitalize on the freshly whipped patriotic fervor, of course!

    Not that elections matter much for Ilham Aliyev — a little ballot stuffing here, a bit of double-voting there, add a sprinkle of violence and suppression — and hey presto, you’ve got a winning recipe, for two decades and counting.

    Running Azerbaijan is something of a family business for the Aliyevs — Ilham assumed power after the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev, an ex-Soviet KGB officer who ruled the country for decades. And the junior Aliyev changed Azerbaijan’s constitution to pave the path to power for the next generation of his family — and appointed his own wife as vice president to boot.

    5. Chinese Premier Li Qiang

    Li Qiang is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ultra-loyal right-hand man, and will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year.

    Li’s claim to infamy: imposing a brutal lockdown on the entirety of Shanghai for weeks during the coronavirus pandemic, which trapped its 25 million-plus inhabitants at home while many struggled to get food, tend to their animals or seek medical help — and tanking the city’s economy in the process.

    Li’s also the guy selling (and whitewashing) China’s Uyghur policy in the Islamic world. In case you need a refresher, China has detained Uyghurs, who are mostly Muslim, in internment camps in the northwest region of Xinjiang, where there have been allegations of torture, slavery, forced sterilization, sexual abuse and brainwashing. China’s actions have been branded genocide by the U.S. State Department, and as potential crimes against humanity by the United Nations.

    Li Qiang will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year | Johannes Simon/Getty Images

    The Chinese government claims the camps carry out “reeducation” to combat terrorism — a story Li has brought forward during recent meetings with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar. Guess we know whom Li will be lunching with.

    6. Rwandan President Paul Kagame

    Nicknamed “the Napoleon of Africa” in a nod to his campaign to seize power in 1994, Paul Kagame has ruled over the land of a thousand hills since. He’s often praised for overseeing what is probably the greatest development success story of modern Africa; he’s also a dictator.

    The former military officer changed the Rwandan constitution to scrap an inconvenient term limit and cement his firm grip on the levers of power, while clamping down on dissent. But despite being accused of overseeing the imprisonment, exile and torture of Rwandan dissidents and journalists, Kagame has managed to stay in the West’s good books — and on the Davos guest list. 

    7. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico

    Slovakia just can’t seem to quit Robert Fico. 

    Forced from office in 2018 by mass protests following the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová, Fico rose from the political ashes to become Slovakian prime minister for the fourth time late last year. His Smer party ran a Putin-friendly campaign, pledging to end all military support for Ukraine.

    Slovakian courts are still working through multiple organized crime cases stemming from the last time Smer was in power, involving oligarchs alleged to have profited from state contracts; former top police brass and senior military intelligence officers; and parliamentarians from all three parties in Fico’s new coalition government.

    8. President of Hungary Katalin Novák

    Katalin Novák, elected Hungarian president in 2022, must’ve pulled the short straw: she’s been sent to Davos to fly the flag for the EU’s pariah state. Luckily, the 46-year-old is used to being the odd one out at a shindig: She’s both the first woman and the youngest-ever Hungarian president.

    You’d think Novák, given her background, would be a trail-blazing feminist seeking to inspire women to reach for the stars. But the arch social conservative is a hero of the international anti-abortion, anti-equality, anti-feminism movement.

    It’s her thoughts on the gender pay gap, though, that ought to get attention at the famously male-dominated World Economic Forum: In an infamous video posted back in late 2020, Novák told the sisterhood: “Do not believe that women have to constantly compete with men. Do not believe that every waking moment of our lives must be spent with comparing ourselves to men, and that we should work in at least the same position, for at least the same pay they do.” That’s us told.

    9. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet

    You may be surprised to see Hun Manet on this list: The new, Western-educated Cambodian prime minister has been touted in some circles as a potential modernizer and reformer. 

    But Hun Manet is less a breath of fresh air and a lot more continuation of the same stale story. Having inherited his position from his father, the longtime autocrat Hun Sen, Hun Manet has shown no signs of wanting to reform or modernize Cambodia. While some say it’s too early to tell where he’ll land (given his dad’s still on the scene, along with his Communist loyalists), the fact is: Many hallmarks of autocracy are still present in Cambodia. Repression of the opposition? Check. Dodgy “elections”? Check. Widespread graft and clientelism? Check and check

    10. Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani

    How has a small kingdom of 2.6 million inhabitants in the Persian Gulf managed to play a starring role in so many explosive scandals?

    There were the influence-buying allegations that claimed the scalps of multiple European Union lawmakers. The claims of undisclosed lobbying by two Trump-aligned Republican operatives. The multiple controversies over attempts at sportswashing. Not to mention the questions raised about what officials in the emirate knew ahead of the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas — of which Qatar is the biggest financial backer.

    Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani is the prime minister of Qatar, a country that’s played a starring role in many explosive scandals | Chris J. Ratcliffe/AFP via Getty Images

    You’d think that sort of record would see Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani shunned by the world’s top brass. Nah! Just this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Qatari leader and told him the U.S. was “deeply grateful for your ongoing leadership in this effort, for the tireless work which you undertook and that continues, to try to free the remaining hostages.” 

    See you on the slopes, Mohammed!

    11. Polish President Andrzej Duda

    When you compare Polish President Andrzej Duda to some of the others on this list, he doesn’t seem to measure up. He’s not a dictator running a violent petro-state, hasn’t invaded any neighbors or even wielded a chainsaw on stage.

    But Duda is yesterday’s man. As the last one standing from Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party that was swept out of office last year, Duda’s holding on for dear life to his own relevance, doing his best to act as a spoiler against the Donald Tusk-led government by wielding his veto powers and harboring convicted lawmakers. All of which is to say: When you catch up with President Duda at Davos, don’t assume he’s speaking for Poland.

    12. Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco

    The Saudi Arabian state oil and gas company is Aramco — the world’s biggest energy firm — and Amin Nasser is its boss. If you read Aramco’s press releases, you’d be forgiven for assuming it is also the world’s biggest champion of the green energy transition. Spoiler alert: It’s far from it.

    Exhibit A: Aramco is reportedly a top corporate polluter, with environment nongovernmental organization ClientEarth reporting that it accounts for more than 4 percent of the globe’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1965. Exhibit B: Bloomberg reported in 2021 that it understated its carbon footprint by as much as 50 percent. 

    Nasser, meanwhile, has criticized the idea that climate action should mean countries “either shut down or slow down big time” their fossil fuel production. Say that to Al Gore’s face!

    This article has been updated to reflect the fact Shou Zi Chew is no longer going to attend the World Economic Forum.

    Dionisios Sturis, Peter Snowdon, Suzanne Lynch and Paul de Villepin contributed reporting.

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    Zoya Sheftalovich

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  • Netanyahu’s coalition bickers over Gaza

    Netanyahu’s coalition bickers over Gaza

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    Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s brittle governing coalition isn’t anywhere near resolving its internal splits over how the Gaza Strip should be governed once Hamas has been crushed, and the situation is testing the patience of the country’s Western allies — including an increasingly exasperated United States.

    Judging by an ill-tempered security Cabinet meeting last week, which was an exceptionally rowdy affair even by the rambunctious standards of Israel’s politics, Netanyahu’s coalition — widely judged as the most right-wing in the country’s history — is fraying. And the sharp differences over Gaza’s fate aren’t helping.

    More of a no-holds-barred verbal brawl than a sober meeting at a moment of great national peril, last week’s security Cabinet had been summoned to agree on outlines for a “day-after” plan for Gaza, which the U.S. is ever more urgently demanding. But according to local media reports, as well as background briefings by officials, stark differences between the governing parties over a Gaza plan are exposing deeper underlying divides that are both ideological and personal.

    This, in turn, raises questions about just how much longer the country’s wartime unity government can hang together, especially as a protest movement calling for Netanyahu to quit is starting to flex its muscles.

    Ministers rounded on each other for much of the acrimonious meeting, with religious nationalists and hard-right leaders excoriating the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces Herzi Halevi, and taking potshots at a proposal offered by Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

    Coming on the eve of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s arrival in Israel, where he’ll be pressing Netanyahu to start winding down military operations in Gaza and conform to U.S. expectations on the enclave’s postwar future, the brawl was especially poorly timed. It also augurs badly for any meeting of the minds on postwar Gaza governance between Israel and Washington — let alone with Israel’s Arab neighbors.

    The sharp-tongued bickering was initially sparked by Halevi disclosing he’d set up an internal army inquiry headed by former defense officials, probing the failings of Israel’s security services before the October 7 attacks by Hamas.

    Led by ministers Miri Regev, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition partners complained that holding an internal inquiry while fighting rages in Gaza is inappropriate and would distract from what should be the real focus — winning the war.

    But their anger was largely concentrated on the inclusion of former Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz — who oversaw the 2005 Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — in the inquiry team. They see Israel’s Gaza disengagement as the original sin that allowed Hamas to grow and become the force it has, able to launch attacks as devastating as the ones on October 7. They want the 2005 withdrawal reversed and Israel to annex part, or all, of Gaza, even discussing the possibility of Gazans “voluntarily” being resettled elsewhere — including the DR Congo.

    This clash, which saw some defense officials walk out in protest, merely added fuel to the fire over Gallant’s proposal that Palestinians unaffiliated with Hamas administer the enclave after the war. Under Gallant’s plan, there would be no Israeli resettlement of Gaza — which infuriated religious nationalists like Smotrich — however, the IDF would retain military control on the borders, and have the right to mount military operations inside Gaza when deemed necessary.

    “Gaza residents are Palestinian. Therefore, Palestinian bodies will be in charge, with the condition that there will be no hostile actions or threats against the State of Israel,” Gallant said last week. But for Smotrich, “Gallant’s ‘day after’ plan is a re-run of the ‘day before’ October 7.”

    Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich walks with soldiers during a visit to Kibbutz Kfar Aza near the border with the Gaza Strip | Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images

    Scorned by the government’s hard right, the defense minister’s proposal is unlikely to cut it with the U.S. or with Israel’s Arab and Gulf neighbors either, as there would be no role for the Palestinian Authority (PA), which oversees the West Bank. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration wants Gaza to be handed over to what it calls a “revitalized” PA, although it hasn’t detailed exactly what that means or the necessary steps for such a revamp.

    Netanyahu eventually broke up the Cabinet meeting after three hours of confrontational exchanges, insults and ministers swearing at each other, once again leaving Gaza’s postwar future unresolved in Israeli minds. And all this, just as the Biden administration redoubles its insistence on a serious and credible postwar plan that Arab nations can accept.

    The disastrous meeting also prompted three key centrists in the wartime government — Benny Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot and Yechiel Tropper of the National Unity government’s Blue and White faction — to skip a full meeting on Sunday, highlighting the growing tensions and coalition rifts.

    Tropper linked his boycott to the right-wing ministers assailing Halevi. He told national broadcaster Kan that he didn’t know “how long we will be in the government; I only know that we entered for the good of the country and our exit will also be related to the good of the country.”

    Gantz, a former defense minister and onetime chief of the General Staff, had led his centrists into Netanyahu’s government after October 7 for the sake of national unity. “There is a time for peace and a time for war. Now is a time for war,” he had said when accepting Netanyahu’s offer to join the war Cabinet.

    But Gantz’s popularity has risen dramatically since then, and he’s now seen as Netanyahu’s most likely challenger. So, if he chose to bolt from the government, it would increase the likelihood of an early election — and that’s something anti-Netanyahu activists are starting to demand once more. Until very recently, there was little appetite for demonstrations, with small turnouts of around just a few dozen to a few hundred people. However, rallies over the weekend saw several thousand participating, with protesters taking to the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, calling for the prime minister’s removal.

    So far, Netanyahu has been circumspect in outlining a postwar Gaza plan, mainly restricting himself to dismissing a role for the PA. And this has partly been due to his worry that disputes over Gaza’s postwar governance could prove fatal for his coalition. It looks like that may well turn out to be true.

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    Jamie Dettmer

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  • Macron goes all in with high-stakes reshuffle to combat far right

    Macron goes all in with high-stakes reshuffle to combat far right

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    PARIS  — French President Emmanuel Macron has propelled rising star Gabriel Attal center stage in a high-risk gamble aimed at stopping the far right’s surge ahead of the European election.  

    In a surprise move on Tuesday, Macron appointed his former education minister and one of France’s most popular politicians as the country’s youngest-ever prime minister in a bid to re-energize his flagging presidency — at the risk of hastening the end of his own reign.

    Macron has been under pressure to jump-start his presidency as the far-right National Rally outstrips the centrists in polls ahead of the EU election in June, and in the wake of two brutal fights last year over immigration and pensions. 

    In contrast to the no-holds-barred election campaign led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, the National Rally’s lead candidate, Macron’s presidency has struggled to project any energy and vitality after seven years running France, and talk of a lame-duck presidency has become widespread in political circles.

    Despite his short political career, the 34-year-old Attal has earned himself a reputation as an obstinate attack dog or a “word sniper” against the far right, having already crossed swords with Bardella in past election debates, and a deft operator fluent as government spokesperson during the Covid pandemic and as education minister. 

    “It’s a great media coup,” said a conservative Les Républicains heavyweight, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. Macron “is doing it because [Attal] will lead the European election campaign … he was the only one who could hold his own against Bardella,” he said. 

    Several political insiders told POLITICO the battle of the European election was one of the main reasons Macron chose Attal.

    “Gabriel Attal and Jordan Bardella are of the same generation, it’s obvious. Attal has political acumen, knows how to deliver a punchline, with substance, so it’s someone who can face off with the National Rally,” said an aide to Macron. But it’ll be thanks to “his action” that he’ll be able to beat the National Rally, he added.

    The nomination of a pugnacious politician with his own ambitions also carries a sizeable risk for the president, who has in the past favored more self-effacing, technocratic figures as his lieutenants. An Attal premiership may accelerate conversations on what comes after Macron as the French president cannot run for a third term. 

    The meteoric rise of Attal, not unlike Macron himself, is also ruffling feathers among Macron’s heavyweight allies who look askance at the young uber-achiever taking over the reins of government. Macron was “forced to work hard” to get the nomination accepted when it was supposed to be “a slam dunk,” said an ally of the president on Monday. 

    Macron’s Mini-Me on the campaign

    The upcoming European election will be the last time Macron faces off with his nemesis Marine Le Pen before the end of his mandate in four years. A far-right victory would resonate for years and poison the president’s legacy. 

    The clash comes at the worst possible time for the president, however. Not only does the National Rally lead his centrist alliance by almost 10 points in polls, but Macron’s presidency has hit rock bottom. 

    EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

    The president’s troops have emerged battered after his much-hardened immigration bill was passed with the support of the far-right, an episode that almost splintered his centrist alliance. The immigration battle came on the heels of acrimonious debates last spring over the reform of French pensions which sparked weeks of nationwide protests.

    Macron is languishing in poll ratings according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls with only 30 percent approval ratings.

    His outgoing Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne was criticized as a technocrat who lacked charisma and political agility, worn out by successive struggles to pass legislation following Macron’s defeat in parliamentary elections last year. She also lost a lot of political capital when she failed to anticipate or prevent a shock defeat in parliament, when the National Assembly rejected the immigration bill without a vote in December.

    Attal, on the other hand, is a fresh hand at the helm. 

    “It’s great news, we’re going to have a government head who is a political operator, and capable of embodying Macron’s pro-European vision,” said Alexandre Holroyd, an MP from Macron’s Renaissance Party.

    “To stop the far-right, which is rising not just in France but across Europe, we have to show that political action is efficient,” and talking to the general public is one thing Attal is good at, he added. 

    Strategically, Attal’s nomination may also help secure the support of center-left voters, as leftwing MEP Raphaël Glucksmann emerges as a competing candidate ahead of the European election. Attal, a former Socialist Party member and the first openly gay prime minister, espouses progressive ideas and has made cyber-bullying and homophobia prominent causes. 

    What’s really changed?

    Macron himself has tasked Attal with the “regeneration” of his government, with “audacity” and “in the spirit of 2017,” his first election year, he wrote on X.

    But while Attal is a fresh face, Macron’s margin of maneuver on the domestic front is shrinking, and it’s unlikely the new premiership will be plain sailing. The centrists still lack a majority in parliament, so passing legislation will remain a painful, humiliating process as the government seeks ad hoc alliances with opposition MPs. 

    Macron is also struggling to find inspiration for his second mandate, and has piled up vague initiatives, such as the “100 days” last year, the “Saint Denis meetings” with opposition leaders, and this month “the meeting with the nation.”

    But the nomination does partially resolve an issue that has dogged Macron’s camp for weeks: who will run as Macron’s lead candidate in the European election? The far right has been hitting the campaign trail for weeks and Macron, a notorious procrastinator, has still not chosen a lead candidate for France’s Renew campaign.

    With many heavyweights in government reluctant to lead a difficult campaign, the names floated in Paris — Europe Minister Laurence Boone or Renew Group leader Stéphane Séjourné — appeared to lack sufficient clout to stand up to the far-right.

    Gabriel Attal carries more than just the European campaign on his shoulders | Pool photo by Ludovic Marin via AFP/Getty Images

    With this week’s reshuffle, Renew’s lead candidate in France could play more of a supporting role. 

    But Attal carries more than just the European campaign on his shoulders. As one of the stars of “Génération Macron,” young politicians who straddle the left-right divide and came to power with the French president, Attal will save or hasten the end of Macronism and its centrist, pro-European political offer.

    It’s the “last bullet before the end of his mandate,” said the same conservative heavyweight cited above.

    Pauline de Saint Remy contributed reporting 

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    Clea Caulcutt

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  • Hezbollah fires rockets at Israel in response to killing of Hamas leader

    Hezbollah fires rockets at Israel in response to killing of Hamas leader

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    Lebanese militant group Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets at Israel on Saturday in retaliation for the targeted killing of a Hamas leader in Beirut this week amid mounting fears of a larger regional war, according to media reports.

    Hezbollah said in a statement Saturday that it targeted an Israeli air surveillance base in northern Israel with 62 missiles as an “initial response” to the suspected Israeli strike on January 2 that killed senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. The Israeli military said around 40 rockets were fired from Lebanon at its territory.

    Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, said earlier this week that the killing of al-Arouri will “not go unpunished.”

    Israel’s military said it responded to the Hezbollah rocket attacks with a drone strike on “the terrorist cell responsible for the launches toward the area of Metula.”

    The escalation comes as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has embarked on his fourth diplomatic tour of the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas war reaches its three-month mark and amid growing international criticism of Israel’s strategy. Yemen’s Houthi militants have also increased their attacks on cargo ships and fuel tankers in the Red Sea.

    Blinken met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Saturday. U.S. officials said Blinken was seeking Turkish buy-in, or at least consideration, of potential monetary or in-kind contributions to reconstruction efforts and some form of participation in a proposed multi-national force that could operate in or adjacent to the territory, the Associated Press reported.

    Turkey has been harshly critical of Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the prosecution of the war and the impact it has had on Palestinian civilians.

    In addition, officials said, Blinken will stress the importance Washington places on Ankara ratifying Sweden’s membership in NATO, a long-delayed process that the Turks have said they will complete soon. Sweden’s accession to the defense alliance is seen as one critical response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who was in Lebanon on Saturday, warned that it was imperative to avoid the Israel-Hamas war growing into a regional conflict.

    Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, killing nearly 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages, some of whom have been released.

    Israel has for the last three months bombed the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, resulting in nearly 23,000 people dying and around 59,000 others being injured, according to the Palestinian enclave’s health authorities.

    In another warning, the United Nations’ humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said on Friday that Gaza has become “uninhabitable” for its nearly 2.3 million inhabitants and repeated that “a public health disaster is unfolding” in the enclave. 

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    Clothilde Goujard

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  • Sinn Féin walks immigration tightrope toward power in Ireland

    Sinn Féin walks immigration tightrope toward power in Ireland

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    DUBLIN – For Sinn Féin chief Mary Lou McDonald to become Ireland’s next prime minister, she will have to negotiate a delicate path over the newly hot-button topic of immigration.

    Tensions about Ireland’s overwhelmed refugee system have shot to the top of the political agenda following race riots in Dublin — and now pose challenges for all parties ahead of elections later this year.

    While centrists in Ireland’s coalition government face their own backroom tensions over immigration policy, it is the main opposition party, Sinn Féin, which is considered most at risk of splitting its base and shedding support to right-wing rivals.

    Such a development would undercut Sinn Féin right on the cusp of an historic breakthrough in the Republic of Ireland, where it appears poised to gain power for the first time following decades of expansion from its longtime stronghold in neighboring Northern Ireland. The Irish republicans, with popular anti-establishment messages and strong working-class roots, have held a commanding lead in every opinion poll since 2020 — an advantage that could slip away as public unease over immigration spikes.

    Unusually for a nationalist party in Europe, Sinn Féin principally fishes for votes on the crowded left of the Irish political divide, not the relatively empty right – where, according to polling, many of its traditional supporters are flowing as they seek a tougher line on asylum seekers.

    Since November 23 — when an Algerian man stabbed three schoolchildren and a teacher in central Dublin, igniting rioting and vandalism by hundreds of protesters chanting bigoted slogans — Sinn Féin has seen its popularity fall below 30 percent in national polls for the first time in two years. Much of the lost support has drifted to rural independent politicians and right-wing fringe parties, among them Sinn Féin defectors now free to express immigration-critical views.

    Rank and file Sinn Féin politicians have been warned internally not to post anything on social media at odds with McDonald’s immigration stance, which focuses on the impact on services — reflecting a hyper-twitchy environment in which commentators are primed to pounce on any perceived hardening in her position.

    McDonald wants her party to stay focused on housing, specifically its core pre-election promise to build tens of thousands of public housing units beyond the government’s own expanding commitments.

    She sees anti-immigrant sentiment as tied to the soul-crushing struggle to secure an affordable home in a country where property prices and rents are among the highest in Europe. This market dysfunction reflects a Europe-leading population boom amid tight supply.

    ‘I share that anger’

    The pace of social change has been staggering, particularly on the relatively impoverished north side of Dublin. Barely a generation ago, Ireland had only 3.5 million people and almost no immigrants in a country where its own people were its biggest export. By contrast, a fifth of today’s nearly 5.3 million residents were born outside Ireland.

    The population boom has been fueled by nearly a decade of strong multinational-driven economic growth and, more recently, a disproportionate intake of 100,000 Ukrainian war refugees and more than 26,000 other asylum seekers, hundreds of whom are now sleeping in tents in parks and side streets. Starting later this month, the government is poised to cut benefits to new Ukrainian arrivals in a bid to reduce them coming via other EU states, where benefits are lower.

    “If you are a person who can’t get a home, or your son or daughter can’t get housed, and then you reckon that lots more people are coming to the country, naturally enough, you’re going to say: ‘Well, how am I going to be housed?’” McDonald told the Business Post, the latest in a series of interviews in which she portrays anti-immigrant sentiment as both understandable and unfair.

    Followers of Hare Krishna, many of whom fled Ukraine during the war, listen to a lecture after prayer near Enniskillen, western Northern Ireland | Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images

    “All of that anger about housing, I share that anger,” she said. “But that’s on the government, not on new people coming into the state.”

    It’s an argument that, behind the scenes, McDonald and senior party lieutenants are having with their own supporters, whose anti-immigrant sentiment has been vividly captured by pollsters if not permitted on official Sinn Féin platforms.

    According to the most detailed recent survey isolating the views of each party’s grassroots, Sinn Féin voters came out as the most anti-immigrant.

    While majorities of voters for other parties identified continued immigration as positive, Sinn Féin’s took the opposite tack. More than 70 percent said too many immigrants were arriving, with a majority associating this with “an increase in crime” and Ireland “losing its personality.” Only 38 percent viewed immigration as “beneficial for the economy.”

    Tapping into those sentiments are a disparate array of right wing upstarts. Among them is Aontú (Unity), a party founded by ex-Sinn Féin lawmaker Peadar Tóibín, and the Rural Independents, a loose grouping of lawmakers including another Sinn Féin defector, Carol Nolan. Two other Rural Independents from Cork and Limerick have just founded a new party, Independent Ireland, which they bill as offering “a comfortable alternative” to Sinn Féin.

    Independents could potentially hold the balance of power following the next general election, which must come by March 2025 but is widely expected in late 2024.

    Sinn Féin vice president Michelle O’Neill, left, watches on during the Sinn Féin Ard Fheis | Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

    First, however, these and other rising voices on the far right will get the chance to build grassroots organizations in local council elections, which take place in June alongside European Parliament elections. Likely candidates include anti-immigrant activists who have led protests outside vacant properties earmarked for housing asylum seekers, some of which have subsequently been torched.

    Police have failed to bring charges in relation to any of these arson attacks, which began in 2018 and escalated in size and frequency in the past year.

    McDonald – a Dubliner who succeeded Gerry Adams as Sinn Féin leader in 2018 – has started to experience heckling from far right activists as she attends meetings with local groups in her central Dublin constituency. These critics vow to field candidates for June’s council elections, potentially gaining a toehold in democratic institutions for the first time.

    Some are members of the Brexiteer-aping Irish Freedom Party, which predicts shelters “will continue to burn” unless government policy on immigration is reversed. Others back the far-right National Party, although its divided leadership is mired in dispute over the ownership of €400,000 in gold bars seized by police from the party’s HQ.

    The irony of Irish people demonizing immigrants is not lost on government ministers tasked with salvaging Ireland’s tourist-focused image of céad míle fáilte – “a hundred thousand welcomes.”

    When Nolan introduced a Rural Independents anti-immigration motion in parliament last month, Green Party Minister for Integration Roderic O’Gorman recalled how Ireland had “closed the doors” to Jews fleeing the Holocaust and should never act that way again – particularly given millions of Irish had emigrated since the 18th century in search of a better life.

    Sinn Féin principally fishes for votes on the crowded left of the Irish political divide, not the relatively empty right | Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

    Referring to the motion’s claim that placing “unvetted single males” in rural towns and villages presented “grave potential consequences for residents,” O’Gorman said the opposition should vet their own family trees.

    “Can any of us put our hand on our heart and say there is not a male member of our family who has not gone abroad seeking work?” he said. “There are ‘unvetted’ male migrants in every one of our families. We are lucky as a country that other countries let them come in and contribute to the system.”

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    Shawn Pogatchnik

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  • Viktor Orbán: The EU is blackmailing Hungary

    Viktor Orbán: The EU is blackmailing Hungary

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    Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Thursday the European Commission is blackmailing Hungary by withholding billions in frozen funds over rule-of-law concerns.

    Orbán said the blackmail is “a fact,” even admitted by the blackmailers themselves — members of the European Parliament.

    “In our view, Hungary fulfils all the qualities of the rule of law, and when the European Commission has specific needs, we implement everything from them, and we are also cooperative,” Orbán told reporters in Budapest during a press conference. “You cannot blame me for doing everything I can to promote Hungary’s interests in such a blackmailed situation.”

    Orbán’s government has been embroiled in a long-standing dispute with Brussels, which has frozen billions of EU funds intended for Hungary over concerns about human rights and the rule of law in the country.

    Last week, the European Commission unblocked €10.2 billion in frozen EU cohesion funds earmarked for Hungary.

    The commission said the timing of the funding release — which came just a day before the European Council, where Orbán was threatening to block the start of Ukraine’s accession talks to the EU and a further aid package to Kyiv — was coincidental. But many EU politicians have warned Brussels not to give in to what they perceive as blackmail from the Hungarian leader.

    In the end, Orbán did a U-turn and allowed EU leaders to approve the start of negotiations for Ukraine to join the bloc.

    There is more money at stake for Budapest and Orbán is still blocking a €50 billion aid package for Kyiv, which leaders are set to discuss early next year.

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    Claudia Chiappa

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  • The first nail-biter election of 2024: Taiwan

    The first nail-biter election of 2024: Taiwan

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    TAIPEI — 2024 will be a bumper year of elections around the world, but one of the first votes on the calendar will also be one of the most hotly contested and consequential: Taiwan, where there are vital strategic interests at play for both the U.S. and China on January 13.

    If the campaign started with expectations in the U.S. that the ruling, pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), whose top brass are frequent and welcome guests in Washington, would stroll to victory, the final stages of the presidential and legislative race have turned into a nail-biter.

    Chinese President’s Xi Jinping’s Communist Party leadership, increasingly assertive in its claim that democratic Taiwan is part of China and keen to see the ruling party in Taipei ousted, is trying to swing the election through a disinformation campaign of hoaxes and outlandish claims on social media.

    And the tactics may be working. The latest polls for the first-past-the-post presidential race on the My Formosa portal have DPP leader William Lai on 35.2 percent, only just keeping his nose out in front of his main challenger from the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang (KMT), Hou Yu-ih, on 30.6 percent. On Tuesday, the Beijing-leaning United Daily News put both candidates on 31 percent.

    “This is not a walk in the park,” admitted Vincent Chao, a city councillor and prominent DPP personality, speaking to POLITICO’s Power Play podcast at a campaign event in New Taipei, a municipality surrounding the capital.

    It could hardly be a more febrile period in terms of security fears over the Taiwan Strait, where insistent Chinese maneuvering has been matched by a high-stakes U.S.-backed boost to the island’s defenses. Only on December 15, the U.S. approved another $300 million of spending on defense kit, sparking a retort from China that the expenditure would harm “security interests and threaten peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”

    Lai’s opponents are playing hard on these security implications of the vote, and are accusing him of bringing the island closer to conflict because of his past comments in favor of the island’s independence. China has, after all, continually warned that independence “means war” and Xi has said Beijing is willing to use “all necessary measures” to secure unification. Lai has hit back that his rivals “are parroting the [Chinese Communist Party line] as propaganda to score electoral benefits.”

    For the global economy, open war over Taiwan would be a disaster, perhaps even outstripping the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, due in particular to the island’s critical role in microchip supplies.

    Head-to-head race

    The specter of a DPP defeat has raised the temperature of the fevered last few weeks of the campaign.

    Chao, the DPP councillor and a former political secretary in Taiwan’s Washington representation, admitted that the DPP ends the year in “a head-to-head race” in the final stretch. “I mean, it’s democracy and the party has been in power for eight years. Anything could change,” he said.

    Wearing a jaunty white and green “Team Taiwan” tracksuit, the party’s signature colors, he talks above the backstage din of an evening event, held among the tower block estates of New Taipei. Volunteers hand out pork dumplings, the outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen gives a rousing speech about freedom and security, and there are ballads of national loyalty and singalong love songs. It feels heartfelt, but also very Taiwanese in its orderliness, the crowd sitting on stools in the evening heat, waving small flags in unison. 

    Chao is candid about the scale of China’s social media offensive.

    The specter of a DPP defeat has raised the temperature of the fevered last few weeks of the campaign | Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

    “What we’re seeing is a much more sophisticated China,” Chao reflected. “They’ve grown much more confident in their abilities to influence our elections, not through military coercion or other overt means, but through disinformation, through influencing public opinion, through controlling the information that people see … through social media organizations like TikTok.”

    One of the many unfounded stories that gained currency on social posts was a claim the U.S. had asked Taiwan to develop biological weapons research, a rumor aimed at raising anxiety about an arms race. Another accused the DPP of covert surveillance of its rivals.

    Trade and business links are another lever. According to Japan’s Nikkei newspaper, some 300 executives from big Taiwanese businesses operating China were called to a meeting by by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office Director Song Tao, a close ally of China’s President Xi, in early December and roundly encouraged to fly home to Taiwan support a pro-Beijing outcome in January.

    A third concern is an international system buckling under new conflicts and crises, with less time to devote to Taiwan’s freedoms, all compounded by an uncertain outcome in the upcoming U.S. election. In the wake of Beijing’s ’s clampdown on freedoms in Hong Kong and with the backwash of the Ukraine crisis, anxieties run high among DPP supporters about Taiwan’s outlook and the need for high levels of deterrence.

    “We really do not want to be the next Ukraine,” Chao added, with feeling.

    Bending with Beijing

    Opinion is strongly divided about the smartest tactical response toward China’s muscle flexing.

    Opinion is strongly divided about the smartest tactical response toward China’s muscle flexing. | Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

    Across town, at one of the opposition’s bases, where campaigners wear tracksuits in the white and blue of the Kuomintang party, International Relations Director Alexander Huang said his political troops were “within touching distance” of a possible victory.

    Keen to shake off a reputation of being reflexively pro-China, as opposed to merely cautious about riling its powerful neighbour, the KMT hosted cocktails for foreign journalists in a trendy, Christmas-decorated bar, bringing together Chinese news-agency writers with Western reporters covering the election.

    Huang, who hails from a military intelligence background and studied Chinese military and security doctrine in Washington, argued renewed Western support and commitments of defence expenditure by the U.S. administration increased the risk of something backfiring over Taiwan’s security. “We are under a great military threat [from China],” he told Power Play. “Our position is deterrence without provocation: assurance without appeasement.”

    He also reckoned the current chilly relations between the governing DPP party and Beijing were widening distrust. “Our current government has no direct communication with the other side. If you are not able to communicate your view to your adversary, how can you change that?”

    It’s less clear what reassurances the KMT expects from Beijing in return for a more accommodating relationship. Huang cites a possible decrease in trade tensions, which can hit Taiwanese agriculture and fishing when Beijing turns the screws, and further action on climate change and pollution (Taiwan is downwind of China’s emissions).

    Colorful cast

    The race certainly does not lack for colorful personalities.

    The DPP’s presidential candidate, Lai, is a doctor and parliamentarian, while his KMT rival Hou is a former policeman and mayor in New Taipei. Mindful that the mood has become cynical about political elites, both sides have chosen frontmen who can claim humble roots: Hou hails from a family that scratched a living as food market traders, while Lai, the epitome of a slick Taiwanese professional, grew up with a widowed mother after his father died in a mining accident. 

    Hou is a former policeman and mayor in New Taipei | Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

    The “Veep” contenders are flashier than the main candidates and more media-friendly. Hsiao Bi-khim, educated in the U.S. and until recently ambassador to Washington, is a pet-lover who styles herself as an agile “cat warrior” in stark contrast to China’s pugnacious “wolf-warrior” diplomats. Her KMT opponent is Jaw Shaw-kong, a formidable, populist-tinged debater and TV personality, who channels overt pro-Beijing sentiment, recently calling for more alignment in military planning with China’s leadership. 

    The billionaire Foxconn founder Terry Gou, who had run as a maverick, wafting pets as incentives to couples to have more babies to combat a worryingly low birthrate, quit the race after China’s tax authorities launched punitive investigations into his company, the builder of iPhones.

    Russell Hsiao of the Global Taiwan Institute, a non-partisan research organization, reckoned that even if the DPP wins, its mandate will be less compelling than in the glory days of 2020, when it surged to a record level.

    The guessing game of how likely an intervention — or even invasion — by China is helps explain the nervy tenor of this race.

    The KMT’s Huang thought a “full-scale, kinetic invasion” is unlikely in the immediate future. How long does he think that guarantee would hold? “I would say not for the next five years, if we get our policy right.” 

    Hardly the most durable time-frame. 

    Taipei politics being a small world, Huang is a longstanding frenemy of the DPP’s Chao, who counters that Taiwan urgently needs to retain its defiant stance and deepen its strategic alliances with the West. They just disagree widely on the means to secure its future.

    “The aim of [Beijing’s] engagements is unification … by force if necessary. Democracy, freedom, they are not just words. They represent what our people sincerely believe and hope to uphold.”

    Stuart Lau contributed reporting.

    Anne McElvoy is host of POLITICO’s weekly Power Play interview podcast, whose latest episode comes from the Taiwan election campaign.

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    Anne McElvoy

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  • I’m no lame duck, Macron says, vowing to stop Le Pen’s rise

    I’m no lame duck, Macron says, vowing to stop Le Pen’s rise

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    PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron hit back Wednesday against speculation he has become a lame-duck president paving the way for the far right to come to power, a day after his flagship immigration bill was voted through — with the support of the far-right National Rally.

    Macron’s government has been in crisis since his coalition splintered over a bill that was deemed too right-wing by many centrist lawmakers, raising critical questions as to whether he can still govern effectively.

    In his first interview since Monday’s vote, the French president denied any long-term damage, even while National Rally leader Marine Le Pen celebrated and cast the toughened bill as an “ideological victory” for her camp.

    My majority “hasn’t shrunk,” the French president said on the France 5 TV channel. “I respect the women and men who abstained or voted against the bill, but has one of them left our coalition? Has one of them said I’m breaking away?”

    On Tuesday, almost a quarter of the 251 MPs in Macron’s coalition abstained or voted against the immigration bill after it was significantly hardened to win the backing of the conservative Les Républicains party. Health Minister Aurélien Rousseau resigned within 24 hours of the vote, telling journalists he could not “explain the bill.” Meanwhile, the National Rally’s 88 lawmakers voted in favor, in a surprise U-turn that has embarrassed Macron’s troops.

    During 10 days of high drama in parliament, Macron’s government lost control of the bill and was forced to accede to mounting requests from conservatives, feeding speculation that the president had finally lost his ability to govern France after his defeat in parliamentary elections last year.

    But on Wednesday, Macron appeared bullish and dismissed those doubts: “I haven’t finished the work. I still have three and a half years ahead of me, and let me tell you, I’m not stopping now,” he said.

    The French president also pushed back against accusations he was encouraging the rise of the far right, despite Le Pen’s gleeful claims of victory.

    The latest version of the immigration bill includes a host of measures to curb illegal migration, including quotas limiting the number of arrivals in France and tighter conditions for family residency permits. One of the most contentious measures is an imposed five-year wait for legal immigrants who wish to apply for social security benefits, which can be reduced to 30 months if the applicant has a job.

    Macron argued that tackling the core issues of the far right — security and immigration — was the only way to stop the National Rally, which is rising in the polls.

    “If you want to stop the National Rally coming to power, you have to tackle the problems that are feeding it. And what is feeding the National Rally is the impression that our answers [on migration] are not efficient,” he said.

    Macron insisted he was working on exactly the sort of legislation needed to keep the right at bay.

    “What we are doing with Europe, the migration pact, and this law, will very clearly help us fight trafficking networks, will help us deport people who are illegally on French soil … that’s what I call efficiency,” he added.

    PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON APPROVAL RATING

    For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

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    Clea Caulcutt

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