Fans of quantum computing stocks are no doubt familiar with quantum computing unit (QCU) maker Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI). The quantum chipmaker has won several fans and seen its share price soar over the past year. But Rigetti’s stock is now trading more than 60% off its 2025 high, and it’s even given back all of the gains it’s made so far in 2026.
So is now a good time to buy this up-and-coming quantum computing stock?
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The quantum computing industry is still in its infancy. But that hasn’t stopped companies from jumping into it. Start-ups like Rigetti are competing with tech giants like Alphabet‘s Google and IBM to develop the tech that could become a commercially viable product.
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Essentially, all these companies are trying to optimize their quantum computers on three separate metrics: speed, accuracy, and scale. Speed refers to the amount of time it takes a quantum system to manipulate a quantum particle at a “quantum gate,” and then to move it to the next gate and prepare it for its next computation.
Accuracy is commonly measured by “two-qubit gate fidelity,” and refers to the percentage of computations that are error-free within the system. Scale is the number of physical qubits in a quantum system. The difficulty for all quantum companies is that as scale and speed increase, accuracy tends to decrease.
It seems likely that the companies able to maximize their systems’ performance through a combination of speed, accuracy, and scale are most likely to be among quantum computing’s big winners. How does Rigetti compare to its rivals in this regard?
The speed of Rigetti’s systems is quite impressive. It claims that its 108-qubit system — roughly the largest-scale system available today — has achieved gate speeds of 50-70 nanoseconds. That’s incredibly fast.
But the median accuracy of that 108-qubit system is only 99% as measured by two-qubit gate fidelity. That may sound like a great rate, but in the world of quantum computing, differences of even 0.01% are significant.
The company’s smaller systems are more accurate, though. Its 36-qubit system has achieved two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.6%, and its 9-qubit system has reached 99.7%. The problem here is that rival IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) boasts that it has achieved 99.99% fidelity in a 100-qubit system. To be fair, though, IonQ’s systems, although much more accurate than Rigetti’s, are much slower.
Rigetti CEO Dr. Subodh Kulkarni said last month in a press release that the company has “a clear understanding of what we need to do to achieve 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity” in its Cepheus-1-108Q system, which is set to be released this quarter. But even if it can achieve that benchmark, there’s still a long way to go.
Image source: Getty Images.
For a quantum computer to be commercially viable, it’s estimated to need at least 1 million physical qubits and 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity (and probably closer to 99.99999%). So we’re still a long way from quantum computing becoming mainstream.
Rigetti believes it’s on track to develop a system with 1,000 qubits by 2027 with 99.7% two-qubit gate fidelity, but hasn’t given longer-term estimates. Rival IonQ is targeting a 10,000-qubit system by 2027 and a 2 million-qubit system by 2030. If Rigetti scaled up on a similar trajectory, it would achieve a 200,000-qubit system by 2030 and surpass the 1 million-qubit threshold by 2031.
But there’s no way to know how accurate such a massive system would be, nor whether Rigetti can beat IonQ to the punch as well as deep-pocketed rivals like Google and IBM.
So, is Rigetti a buy now? Nobody but the most risk-tolerant investors should even consider it: The company is too speculative, and a lot can change between now and 2030.
Image source: Getty Images.
On the bright side, according to data from McKinsey & Company, the quantum computing market could be as large as $72 billion by 2030. If Rigetti can control a large enough piece of that pie, it could be a huge winner from here. But a lot would have to go Rigetti’s way for that to happen, and right now there’s no way to know how things will shake out in this rapidly developing field.
For investors who want to buy into the quantum computing trend early, Rigetti isn’t a bad choice, but it’s probably not a good idea to put all your eggs in one (quantum) basket. I would rather take a small stake in Rigetti alongside other quantum computing companies, or invest in a quantum computing ETF so I could give myself the best odds of picking a winner. And I definitely wouldn’t invest money I couldn’t afford to lose.
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John Bromels has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, International Business Machines, and IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Quantum computing has emerged as a prime target for investors chasing high-growth tech sectors. Over the past year, some stocks in this space have climbed by thousands of percent, drawing billions in capital from those betting on revolutionary advancements.
Companies like Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS), and Quantum Computing (NASDAQ:QUBT) have seen share prices skyrocket, fueled by optimism around potential applications in drug design, optimization, and cryptography. Billions have poured into funds and direct investments, pushing market caps higher despite limited revenue streams.
Yet, skeptics point to ongoing technical hurdles and question short-term commercial viability, as most systems remain experimental. Investors, however, keep bidding up valuations, viewing quantum as the next AI-like boom. With such fervor, could IonQ (NYSE:IONQ) have just delivered a breakthrough that sends its stock soaring even further?
Today, IonQ announced a major technical milestone: it achieved 99.99% fidelity in two-qubit gates, setting a new world record. In simple terms, qubits are the building blocks of quantum computers, and two-qubit gates handle interactions between them. These gates are crucial because quantum computations rely on precise entanglements and operations; even minor errors can cascade, rendering results unreliable.
Historically, error rates have been a major bottleneck, forcing engineers to dedicate vast resources to error correction — they often require thousands of physical qubits to simulate just one reliable “logical” qubit. IonQ’s “four nines” fidelity — meaning just one error per 10,000 operations — beats the prior record of 99.97% and marks the first time any company has hit this threshold on mass-producible chips.
By using electronic qubit control (EQC) technology instead of traditional lasers, IonQ integrates all controls onto standard semiconductor chips. This approach, borrowed from classical computing manufacturing, makes systems cheaper to produce, more stable in operation, and far easier to scale up.
Unlike laser-based methods, which are prone to environmental interference and require specialized setups, EQC leverages precision electronics for better reliability. For IonQ, this milestone validates its acquisition of Oxford Ionics and accelerates its roadmap. The company now projects demonstrating 256-qubit systems by 2026, with ambitions for millions of qubits by 2030.
In broader quantum computing terms, it shortens the path to commercial viability. High fidelity reduces the overhead for error correction dramatically — IonQ claims up to a 10 billion times improvement over older 99.9% benchmarks. This means quantum machines can tackle real-world problems without needing impractically large hardware. Industries such as pharmaceuticals, where IonQ has already shown 20x speed-ups in drug discovery, stand to benefit first.
Overall, it signals that quantum computing is transitioning from theoretical promise to engineered reality, potentially compressing industry timelines by years and attracting more enterprise adoption.
But will this spark a breakout for IonQ shares? The stock has risen about 350% over the past year, a strong performance but trailing its peers amid volatile market conditions.
Rigetti’s shares, despite a recent 25% drop from mid-October highs, have still delivered outsized gains of 3,800% in the same timeframe. D-Wave has surged 3,200% — even after yesterday’s 10% tumble — by capitalizing on its focus on annealing quantum systems for optimization tasks, while Quantum Computing has posted 2,170% returns.
IonQ’s announcement could shift this dynamic, showcasing tangible progress in a field often criticized for hype over substance. With partnerships like those with Amazon‘s (NASDAQ:AMZN) AWS and AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) already in place, this fidelity breakthrough might draw fresh investment, validating IonQ’s trapped-ion approach over competitors’ superconducting or photonic methods.
If it leads to new contracts or funding, a rally could follow, especially as quantum stocks often move on technical news rather than earnings.
As impressive as IonQ’s achievement is, it won’t land quantum computers in everyday use soon. Systems remain lab-bound, far from consumer shelves, with challenges like maintaining qubit coherence in larger arrays still unresolved. Competition is also fierce, from giants like IBM (NYSE:IBM) and Google to startups, and regulatory hurdles around quantum-safe encryption add uncertainty.
That said, investors have pumped up prices on slimmer news, so a surge isn’t out of the question — quantum enthusiasm often defies fundamentals. Valuations, though, are stretched: IonQ’s price-to-sales ratio hovers around 260, while Rigetti’s exceeds 1,770, D-Wave’s sits at 528, and Quantum Computing’s tops 14,700.
Even with triple-digit revenue growth, normalizing these could take years, as current sales are tiny — often in the low millions annually. Risks abound, including potential tech setbacks or economic downturns that dry up venture capital.
IonQ has advanced meaningfully, potentially extending its edge if you’re optimistic on quantum’s future in solving intractable problems like climate modeling or AI training. A small position makes sense for diversified portfolios, but it’s no cue to go all-in; these remain highly speculative plays with plenty of road ahead, where patience is key amid boom-and-bust cycles.
