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There may be a lot less ho-ho-hoing in 2025’s holiday season hi-hi-hiring. Early evidence suggests that businesses may be planning to fill fewer jobs than usual during the last three months of the year, even as the number of people looking for those positions surges.
The looming holiday season employment slowdown comes as national job creation has essentially flatlined since spring. The last official data before the government shutdown indicated monthly hiring rates dipped to an average of 26,750 new positions from May through August, largely because companies concerned about the economy’s health limited recruitment to replacing departing employees. Now that caution appears to have also been adopted by retailers and other businesses that typically add extra staff during the last months of the year to handle the expected boost in consumer buying.
A report by executive outplacement company Challenger, Gray, and Christmas released in September forecasted retailers to only add 500,000 seasonal positions this year. It noted that volume would represent the lowest rate of year-end hiring since 2009. The company said those cautious staffing plans reflect the same concerns as other business owners who aren’t doing much hiring. Those worries include the impact of import tariffs, relatively high and enduring inflation rates, and potentially reduced spending by consumers whose budgets are being pinched by higher prices.
A report by job posting platform Indeed painted a less Grinchy holiday season employment picture, but it still wasn’t terribly merry.
An analysis by its Hiring Lab research unit found year-end employment opportunities on September 30 were just 2.7 percent higher than on the same date last year. But at the same time, the number of people seeking those positions were 27 percent greater than in September 2024, and 50 percent higher than during the same month in 2023.
“The level of searches related to seasonal work is far above levels seen immediately before and after the pandemic,” wrote Indeed economist Cory Stahle in a recent Hiring Lab blog post. “But while searches have soared, the number of seasonal jobs available has not… This holiday hiring season will likely be highly competitive for job seekers, with fewer positions available and increased worker interest.”
Of course, things may change over the next few weeks if retailers and other companies that rely on big year-end business ramp up their hiring plans as the holidays near. But another detail Hiring Lab discovered suggests those belated recruitment hopes may be a long shot. Its analysis found only 2.1 percent of seasonal job postings so far have stressed an urgent need for help, far lower than the 10 percent level in September 2021.
By contrast, people looking for that work are really in need of seasonal jobs. The higher numbers of people searching for those opportunities indicate many employment seekers have learned the lessons from several months of a sluggish national employment market — and have started looking for year-end opportunities early. If so, that could be be worsening the supply and demand mismatch.
“It’s possible that some of this shift in timing represents job seekers adjusting to a cooling labor market, longer hiring times, and less employer urgency,” Stahl wrote. “Beyond urgency, workers may also feel the need to get their foot in the door earlier because they are competing for a shrinking pool of holiday jobs… The result is a more competitive seasonal job market with fewer opportunities for a growing supply of workers.”
Not all retailers are holding back as 2025 nears its end. Spirit Halloween said it’s recruiting as many people as it did last year, and Amazon is hiring 250,000 seasonal workers. Other big chains have said they’re adding unspecified numbers of employees to their staffs, while others declined to reveal their holiday season hiring plans.
The upshot, Indeed’s Hiring Lab said, is that so far this year, businesses with doubts about the economy are showing similar reluctance to significantly expand headcounts in the holiday run-up as they did this summer. While that’s bad news for seasonal job seekers, it should make recruitment easier for employers who are adding year-end staff.
“Seasonal work is still out there, but it’s not as easy to come by as it was a few years ago,” Stahl wrote. “All told, this year’s holiday season looks to be a tougher one for job seekers and a little easier for employers.”
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Bruce Crumley
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