Stock-market investors have been adjusting to the jump in interest rates amid high inflation, but they have yet to cope with profit headwinds faced by the S&P 500, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“While a rate peak may solidify estimates for the equity risk premium and valuation multiples, equity investors still face the bear market’s second act — the earnings outlook,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Monday.
“They have been slow to recognize that pricing power and operating margins, which hit all-time highs in the past two years, are unsustainable,” she said. “Even without a recession, the mean reversion of profits in 2023 translates to a 10%-to-15% decline from current estimates.”
MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT NOTE DATED OCT. 17 2022
Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus during the throes of the pandemic had led to the largest U.S. companies booking record operating margins that were 150 to 200 basis points above norms seen in the past decade, according to Shalett.
She said that company profits may now be imperiled by slowing growth, with “demand skewing toward services” after pulling forward toward goods earlier in the pandemic, and a likely reversal in “extremely strong” pricing power as the Fed fights surging inflation with interest-rate hikes.
“Such risks are not discounted in 2023 consensus yet, constituting a material risk to stocks for the remainder of the year,” Shalett said.
While many sectors have discounted the potential drop in 2023 profits from current estimates that could stir headwinds even with no recession, “the megacap secular growth stocks that dominate market-cap indexes have not,” she warned. “And those indexes are where risk gets repriced in the bear market’s final stages.”
Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson estimates as much as 11% downside from consensus estimates, with his base-case, earnings-per-share forecast for the S&P 500 for 2023 being $212, according to Shalett’s note.
U.S. stocks were bouncing Monday, with major stock benchmarks trading sharply higher in the afternoon, after sinking Friday amid inflation concerns as earnings season got under way. The S&P 500 SPX, +2.65%
was up 2.7% in afternoon trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.86%
gained 1.9% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 3.5%, FactSet data show, last check.
In the bond market, Treasury rates were trading slightly lower Monday afternoon, after the 2-year yield hit a 15-year high and the 10-year yield notched a 14-year high on Friday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Two-year yields ended last week at 4.507%, the highest level since August 8, 2007 based on 3 p.m. Eastern time levels, while the 10-year rate climbed to 4.005% for its highest rate since Oct. 15, 2008.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.992%
was down about 1 basis point Monday afternoon at around 4%, while two-year yields TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.439%
fell about five basis points to around 4.45%, FactSet data show, at last check.
Meanwhile, as investors capitulated to higher inflation, “peak policy rates moved up aggressively in the fed funds futures market, with the terminal rate now at nearly 5%, an aggressive stance that smacks of ‘peak hawkishness,’” according to the Morgan Stanley note.
“Critically, although the market is still pricing 1.5 cuts in 2023, the January 2024 fed-funds rate is estimated at 4.5%, a comfortable 100 basis points above our forecast” for core inflation measured by the consumer-price index, Shalett wrote.
“Consider locking in solid short-term yields in bonds and shoring up positions in high growth, dividend-paying stocks,” she said. “Short-duration Treasuries look attractive, especially because the yield is more than 2.5 times that of the dividend yield on the S&P 500.”
This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.
Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500 SPX, +2.78%
— that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.
Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom
Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund BUFEX, -2.86%
and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund BUFTX, -2.82%,
said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”
The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.
Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”
He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”
He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.
Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”
Leaders for the stock market’s recovery
After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”
He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp. NVDA, +6.14%
and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD, +3.69%
were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”
Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V. ASML, +3.79%,
which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.
Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc. AAPL, +3.09%,
Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +3.88%,
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +6.63%
and Alphabet Inc. GOOG, +3.91%
Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH, +1.77%,
Danaher Corp. DHR, +2.64%
and Linde PLC LIN, +2.25%
recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s ADBE, +2.32%
price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.
Summarizing the declines
To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX, +2.12%,
which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX, +2.29%
of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.
Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:
You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.
The world needs metals like copper, iron, and cobalt, but investors don’t seem to need mining stocks. They should reconsider.
Investor reluctance is understandable. Why get exposure to an industry whose profits hinge on the health of industrial activity when the global economy seems headed for a downturn that would probably send metal prices lower?
(BEP), Cameco agreed to buy Westinghouse Electric, a servicer to nuclear power plants, for $7.88 billion, including debt. Cameco will own 49% of the joint venture once the deal is completed.
U.S. stock indexes edged higher on Wednesday, while hotter-than-expected producer price inflation data deepened concerns that the Federal Reserve may continue its aggressive interest rate hikes.
How are stock-index futures trading
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.50%
was up 120 points, or 0.4% to around 29,355
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.35%
gained 5.3 points, or 0.2% to about 3,594
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -6.31%
traded 5.1 points, or 0.1% higher to 10,430
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 36 points, or 0.12%, to 29239, the S&P 500 declined 24 points, or 0.65%, to 3589, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 116 points, or 1.1%, to 10426. The S&P 500 closed down 1,177 points, or 24.7% for the year to date.
What’s driving markets
The 12-month rate of producer price inflation slowed to to 8.5% from 8.7% while the annual core rate, excluding food and energy, was unchanged at 5.6%, but the monthly rate rose 0.4% in September, above forecast, and the monthly core PPI was also up 0.4% in September.
Such data has worsened fears that to curb inflation, the Fed will continue its aggressive rate hikes, which may steer the U.S. economy into a recession.
“We believe the odds of a recession in 2023 are now better than 50%,” Greg Bassuk, chief executive at AXS Investments, wrote in a Wednesday note. “Last week’s market turbulence saw volatility at levels we have not seen since July, and we believe investors should brace for ongoing market volatility and uncertainty throughout Q4, in concert with another likely Fed interest rate hike to the tune of 0.75% in November,” according to Bassuk.
The 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, which started the year around 1.65% was trading at 3.931% on Wednesday, off 1.3 basis points, after the producer price inflation data.
Traders are also awaiting U.S. September consumer prices data on Thursday due at 8:30 am Eastern Time.
“Inflation has proven to be difficult to forecast and given the negative ‘shock’ from the August CPI, it would be difficult for any investor to have conviction going into this report,” according to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat.
“For us, analyzing the month over month numbers is much more important than looking at the headline,” Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments, said in an interview.
“The way we’ve been thinking about it, the last three months annualized [inflation] gives you a kind of a decent idea of where the shorter term trends are around inflation,” Hill said. “We think that’s what the Fed is going to be looking at to see progress towards their 2% goal. And unfortunately, based on various measures, we’re nowhere near that today.”
Investors have become increasingly concerned of late that severe stresses in the financial system may emerge as central banks switch from the era of zero or negative interest rates to sharply higher borrowing costs as they try to tackle inflation at multi-decade highs.
“[G]lobal financial conditions have tightened as central banks continue to raise interest rates. Our latest Global Financial Stability Report shows that financial stability risks have increased since our last report, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside,” said the International Monetary Fund in a report released on Tuesday.
“The mood of global investors was gloomy enough and hardly needed yesterday’s reminder from the IMF that the risks to financial stability have increased,” Ian Williams, strategist at Peel Hunt, noted. “Its report highlighted specifically (if obviously) the threats from persistent inflation, China’s slowdown and the war in Ukraine. The highlighted ‘disorderly repricing of risk’ is arguably already underway.”
The Fed may offer its view on the topic as a number of officials are due to give comments on Wednesday. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed is “dead serious” about getting inflation down. Fed vice chair Michael Barr will speak at 1:45 p.m. The minutes of the Fed’s previous monetary policy setting meeting will be released at 2 p.m. ET and Fed governor Michelle Bowman will deliver comments at 6.30 pm.
PHG, -11.33%
plunged 12% after the Dutch tech company issued its second profit warning this year, forewarning that supply chain problems will impact sales and third-quarter profits.
Intel Corp. INTC, +1.50%
may fire thousands of workers by the end of the month, around the same time the chip manufacturer reports quarterly results amid a tough year for semiconductor makers, Bloomberg reported late Tuesday. The company’s shares rose 1% Wednesday.
Shares of PepsiCo Inc. climbed 4.6% Wednesday, after the beverage and snack giant reported third-quarter profit and revenue that rose above expectations and raised its full-year outlook, as higher prices helped offset some volume weakness.
U.S. stocks finished with losses on Monday, sending the Nasdaq Composite to its lowest close in more than two years, after investors failed to shake off worries about further Federal Reserve rate hikes and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon warned of a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500.
How stocks traded
The Dow DJIA, -0.32%
closed down by 93.91 points, or 0.3% at 29,202.88.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.75%
finished down by 27.27 points, or 0.8%, at 3,612.39.
The Nasdaq Composite gave up 110.30 points, or 1%, to end at 10,542.10 — the lowest close since July 28, 2020.
Monday’s declines exacerbated losses which occurred at the end of last week. On Friday, the Dow fell 630 points, or 2.1%, the S&P 500 declined 2.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 31.9% for the year to date through Friday.
What drove markets
Major indexes finished lower for a fourth consecutive session on Monday as concerns about additional rate hikes by the Fed continued to damp sentiment. Dow industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all fell to session lows after a CNBC interview with Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan JPM, -0.93%,
who said the S&P 500 could fall by “another easy 20%” from current levels.
Soft data a week ago had raised hopes that the Fed would soon pause its monetary tightening cycle in its battle to suppress multidecade high inflation, and the market subsequently rebounded off its near two-year lows. But a strong jobs report on Friday crushed that Fed “pivot” narrative and stocks plunged again.
On Monday, the CBOE Vix index VIX, +3.48%,
a gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility, sat at 32.15, well above its long-term average of 20.
“The low interest-rate environment forced investors to chase yield and bid up the asset prices too high. Eventually the market is fair and asset values have to achieve some sense of common ground or base level valuation. So it was inevitable that this valuation correction would happen,” said Siddharth Singhai, chief investment officer for New York-based hedge fund IronHold Capital.
“Panic will swing the market towards excessive pessimism and then the valuations will be too cheap. That hasn’t happened yet. Upcoming rate hikes will most likely be a catalyst for panic, however,” he wrote in an email to MarketWatch on Monday.
Coming into Monday’s session, trading had been expected to be somewhat thinned by the Columbus Day and Indigenous People’s Day holiday, which closed the Treasury market.
Now, traders are looking toward more data later in the week for further guidance on Fed thinking and equity valuations. The U.S. producer price numbers will be released on Wednesday and the consumer prices report on Thursday, the last of their kind before the Fed’s policy decision on Nov. 2.
Then on Friday, third-quarter corporate earnings season really kicks into gear when big banks like JPMorgan JPM, -0.93%
and Citigroup C, -1.40%
present their numbers.
Investors were also keeping an eye on the strong U.S. dollar, which is considered a drag on the earnings of U.S. multinationals. The dollar index DXY, +0.25%
rose 0.3% to 113.12 as the euro intermittently broke below $0.97 after Russia sent missiles into cities across Ukraine.
“We expect a lot more volatility in markets for the remainder of the year as the inevitability of higher rates sinks in and the economic consequences become more pronounced,” said Arthur Laffer Jr., president of Nashville-based Laffer Tengler Investments. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “will not be a very popular person but it seems his legacy is focused on fighting any resurgence of 1970s inflation in the U.S. at all costs.”
Companies in focus
Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN, -7.28%
intends to recall about 13,000 vehicles due to a possible safety issue that has so far been found to have affected several units, the company said Friday night. Shares finished down by 7.3%.
Tesla Inc. TSLA, -0.05%
reported record monthly sales of China-made electric vehicles in September, as it continues to ramp production in the world’s number-two economy. The electric-vehicle maker delivered 83,135 EVs from its Shanghai plant in September, an 8% rise from August, according to a report by the China Passenger Car Association. Tesla shares nonetheless finished down by less than 0.1%.
U.S. stock futures were looking for direction Monday as worries about Fed rate rises persisted, with major indexes trading not far off their 2022 lows set at the end of last month.
Investors were looking ahead to key inflation data due later this week, as well as minutes of the Fed’s September policy meeting and the start of earnings season.
How stocks are trading
S&P 500 futures ES00, -0.04%
erased earlier losses to tick up 3.50 points, or 0.1%, to 3,656.75.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, +0.34%
rose 63 points, or 0.2%, to 29,416.
Nasdaq 100 futures NQ00, -0.54%
were down 9.50 points, or 0.1%, at 11,092.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.11%
fell 630 points, or 2.1%, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.31%
declined 2.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.61%
dropped 3.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 31.9% for the year to date through Friday.
What’s driving markets
U.S. stocks were in line for a fourth consecutive session of losses as concerns about additional interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve continued to dampen sentiment.
Trading was expected to be somewhat thinned by the Columbus Day and Indigenous People’s Day holiday, which closed the Treasury market.
Soft data a week ago raised hopes that the Fed would soon pause its monetary tightening cycle in its battle to suppress multi-decade high inflation, and the market subsequently rebounded off its near two-year lows. But a strong jobs report on Friday crushed that Fed “pivot” narrative and stocks plunged again.
The 5-day round trip saw an average move for the S&P 500 of 1.9%. Little surprise then that the CBOE Vix index VIX, +5.20%,
a gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility, sat on Monday at 31.4, more than 50% above its long term average of 20.
“The market response to Friday’s U.S. jobs report was characteristic of a bear market in equities. U.S. indices reversed sharply in the absence of the bad economic news required to shake the Fed’s hawkish determination,” said Ian Williams, strategist at Peel Hunt.
Now traders will look toward more data due later in the week for further guidance on Fed thinking and equity valuations.
The U.S. producer price numbers will be released on Wednesday and the consumer prices report on Thursday, the last of their kind before the Fed’s rate-setting meeting on Nov. 2.
Then on Friday, third-quarter corporate earnings season really kicks into gear when big banks like JPMorgan JPM, +0.47%
and Citigroup C, -0.31%
present their numbers.
“The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 2.4%. If 2.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%),” said John Butters, senior earnings analyst at Factset.
Further hurting risk appetite on Monday was additional gains for the dollar, whose strength is considered a drag on the earnings of U.S. multinationals. The dollar index DXY, +0.28%
rose 0.3% to 113.15 as the euro broke back below $0.97 after Russia sent missiles into cities across Ukraine.
Companies in focus
Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN, -8.25%
intends to recall about 13,000 vehicles due to a possible safety issue that has so far been found to have impacted several units, the company said Friday night. Shares were down 7.1% in premarket trade.
Tesla Inc. TSLA, +0.06%
reported record monthly sales of China-made electric vehicles in September, as it continues to ramp production in the world’s number-two economy. The electric-vehicle maker delivered 83,135 EVs in September, an 8% rise from August, according to a report by the China Passenger Car Association on Sunday. Tesla shares were down 0.2%.
It’s a regular day of business for the U.S. stock market on Monday, October 10, as equity exchanges stay open for Columbus Day, a federal holiday that also has been recognized as Indigenous Peoples’ Day.
Bond markets, however, take the day off, which means a long weekend for the Treasury market, corporate bonds and other forms of tradable debt, starting after the close of business on Friday.
Stocks have endured a brutal selloff in the first nine months of the year as the Federal Reserve has worked to fight inflation that’s been stuck near it highest levels since the early 1980s.
The central bank’s main tool to battle inflation has been to dramatically increase interest rates, while also shrinking its balance sheet, in an effort to tighten financial conditions and squelch demand for goods and services, while also bringing down stubbornly high costs of living, including food, shelter and energy prices.
The Fed’s focus in recent months also has been on cooling the roaring labor market, with strong wage gains in the past year viewed as one of several culprits behind elevated inflation.
Friday’s jobs report for September pegged the unemployment rate as matching a prepandemic low of 3.5%, dashing hopes for now of a significant trend toward a pullback in the labor market.
The S&P 500 index SPX, -2.80%
tumbled 2.8% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.11%
fell 630.15 points, or 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -3.04%
dropped 3.8%. An early October rally had offered some hope for a bounce for stocks, after a brutal first nine months for investors.
Bonds also have undergone a painful repricing this year as volatility tied to the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign has eroded the value of bonds issued in the past decade of low rates.
The S&P 500 is down about 24% for the year, while the Dow is off 19% and the Nasdaq nearly 32%.The 10-year Treasury rate TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.889%
was near 3.9% Friday, after recently touching 4%, it’s highest since 2010
U.S. stock indexes ended modestly lower on Wednesday, despite briefly turning positive in the final hour of trading, while data showed steady growth in private-sector jobs and in the service sector, indicating more scope for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates.
How stocks traded?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.03%
lost 42.45 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 30,273.87
The S&P 500 SPX, +0.21%
was off 7.65 points, or 0.2%, ending at 3,783.28
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +18.82%
shed 27.77 points, or 0.2%, to end at 11,148.64
On Tuesday, the Dow jumped 825 points, or 2.8%, while the S&P 500 increased 3.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 3.3%.
What drove markets?
Wall Street stocks finished in the red after three main indexes bounced back from earlier losses in the final hour of trade, following a strong September private employment report in the morning.
Data released Wednesday showed that private-sector payrolls rose by 208,000 in September, indicating steady growth and supporting the view that the Fed has enough scope to keep raising interest rates. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a rise of 200,000.
The report came two days before the closely watched nonfarm payrolls data issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Investors are eying on it for important guidance on the Fed’s policy stance in the November meeting.
Friday’s employment report is expected to show the economy added 275,000 jobs in September, compared with 315,000 new positions added in August, according to a survey polled by Dow Jones.
“That certainly could move the needle,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco. “Again, it doesn’t mean that it actually is going to change the market, but it could be the catalyst for short term rally if we get a disappointing jobs report.”
“But keep in mind, that’s just the anticipation of a Fed pivot based on data. But that does not ensure a Fed pivot. And so it could be one of those short-term rallies like the one we saw earlier this week,” Hooper said.
In other data Wednesday, an ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector dipped to 56.7% in September but still showed steady growth and rising employment in a sign the economy is still expanding.
The U.S. trade deficit in August fell to $67.4 billion, the lowest level since mid 2021, paving the way for a resumption of growth in gross domestic product in the third quarter.
The S&P 500 had just enjoyed its largest two day percentage gain since April 2020 on Monday and Tuesday, and the best start to a quarter since 1938, according to Dow Jones Market data.
The bounce followed three quarters of declines, the worst such run since 2008, during which time the S&P 500 fell 24.8% to a near two-year trough as investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes to crush inflation would harm the economy.
Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, believes the volatility in the stocks will continue because markets are getting a very “consistent message” from the Fed.
“Given what has happened over the last five trading sessions alone, we would be basically telling our clients to tighten your seatbelt a little bit because it’s definitely going to continue to be a bumpy ride,” Mulberry told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Wednesday. “If we get a ‘Goldilocks’ (jobs) report, that would mean decent economic activity is going on. That’s good for earnings overall in the market, but it’s not growing to a point where interest rates would have to be ratcheted up another 125 basis points by the end of the year.”
One major reason behind the rise early this week was the view that the Fed would pivot away from its aggressive monetary tightening.
Johanna Chua, chief Asia economist at Citi, said that though U.S economic growth remained in better shape than other countries and Fed officials continued to sound hawkish, the market risked being wrongfooted by any signs that interest rates could soon peak.
“Even as the overall fundamental setup has not changed… trimming of bearish risk/bearish rates/bullish USD positions has driven a sharp reversal,” Chua said.
Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve needs to keep raising its benchmark interest rate in order to cool inflation that hit a 40-year high earlier this year and has shown little signs of cooling. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at 4 p.m. Eastern.
CLX22,
rose $1.24, or 1.4%, to settle at $87.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The S&P 500’s energy sector SP500.10, -0.07%
rose 2.1% following the news, up 12.6% over the last three trading days. According to Dow Jones Market Data, it was the best three-day percentage gain since November 2020 when it gained 16.1%. Shares of Schlumberger SLB, +0.77%
gained 6.3% at the close, while Exxon Mobil XOM, +1.32%
shares advanced 4%.
Companies in focus
Shares of Helen of Troy Ltd. HELE, -2.75%
finished 3.4% higher Wednesday, after the consumer products company, with brands including OXO, Hydro Flask and Braun, reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that beat expectations but cut its full-year outlook, as rising inflation has prompted consumers to change their spending patterns.
Shares of Monopar Therapeutics Inc. MNPR, +6.36%
gained 1.8% after the company said it completed enrollment in a Phase 2b clinical trial evaluating its experimental therapy aimed at preventing severe oral mucositis in patients undergoing chemoradiotherapy for oropharyngeal cancer.
Shares of Eiger BioPharmaceuticals Inc. EIGR, +0.85%
tumbled 5% after the company said it will not pursue emergency authorization of its experimental treatment for mild and moderate COVID-19 infections.
Shares of Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. LW, +2.45%
ended 4.2% higher Wednesday, after the potato supplier reported fiscal first-quarter profit that beat expectations, higher prices helped offset a volume decline.
U.S. stock index futures dipped on Wednesday as a more cautious tone prevailed following a strong start to the fourth quarter.
How are stock index-futures trading
S&P 500 futures ES00, -0.80%
dipped 31 points, or 0.8%, to 3772
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, -0.80%
fell 242 points, or 0.8%, to 30123
Nasdaq 100 futures NQ00, -0.82%
eased 90 points, or 0.8%, to 11550
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.80%
rose 825 points, or 2.8%, to 30316, the S&P 500 SPX, +3.06%
increased 113 points, or 3.06%, to 3791, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +7.79%
gained 361 points, or 3.34%, to 11176. The Nasdaq Composite was up 5.7% from its 52-week closing low, but it remains down 28.6% for the year to date.
What’s driving markets
Wall Street was on course Wednesday for a relatively mild pullback, as stock index futures suffered some selling after a sturdy rally over the past two sessions.
The S&P 500 has just enjoyed its largest two day percentage gain since April 2020, and the best start to a quarter since 1938, according to Dow Jones Market data.
The bounce followed three quarters of declines, the worst such run since 2008, during which time the S&P 500 fell 24.8% to a near two-year trough as investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes to crush inflation would harm the economy.
However, recent soft U.S data, covering job openings and manufacturing, have encouraged some traders to trim bets on aggressive Fed interest rate rises.
A week ago markets were forecasting the Fed’s benchmark interest rate would peak at nearly 4.8% by April 2023, but that figure has come down to 4.5%.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at 4 p.m. Eastern.
Johanna Chua, chief Asia economist at Citi, said that though U.S economic growth remained in better shape than other countries and Fed officials continued to sound hawkish, the market risked being wrongfooted by any signs that interest rates could soon peak.
“Even as the overall fundamental setup has not changed… trimming of bearish risk/bearish rates/bullish USD positions has driven a sharp reversal,” Chua said.
This view that oversold conditions and overly bearish sentiment was a key contributor to the latest advance was endorsed by Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, though he accepted that bulls may be chastened by the recent past.
“Given the generally poor win-ratio for rallies in 2022, investors are naturally viewing the gains over the past two days as just another ‘bear market rally’,” said Lee in a note to clients.
Still, a number of shifting factors suggest the positive run could continue according to Lee.
These included the dip in Fed fund futures; a 5% pullback in the dollar index DXY, +0.73%
; and the Vix volatility index VIX, +1.07%
moving back below 30 with Vix futures back in contango.
In addition: “the Nasdaq 100 was ‘100% bid’ Tuesday…since 1996, this has only happened 6 times, and 6 of 6 times the [Nasdaq 100] is higher 6M and 12M later with average gains of 27% and 34%,” said Lee.
U.S. economic updates set for release on Wednesday include the September ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m.; international trade balance data for August at 8:30 a.m.; the September S&P Global service sector PMI survey at 9:45 a.m.; and the September ISM services report at 10 a.m.
The ADP report sets up the market for heightened nervousness when the nonfarm payrolls data for September is published at the end of the week.
“All eyes are on the employment data on Friday, which has priced in tremendous one day volatility in the options market,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
When the stock market has jumped two days in a row, as it has now, it is easy to become complacent.
But the Federal Reserve isn’t finished raising interest rates, and recession talk abounds. Stock investors aren’t out of the woods yet. That can make dividend stocks attractive if the yields are high and the companies produce more cash flow than they need to cover the payouts.
Below is a list of 21 stocks drawn from the S&P Composite 1500 Index SP1500, +3.12%
that appear to fit the bill. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500 SPX, +3.06%,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index MID, +3.18%
and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index SML, +3.80%.
The purpose of the list is to provide a starting point for further research. These stocks may be appropriate for you if you are looking for income, but you should do your own assessment to form your own opinion about a company’s ability to remain competitive over the next decade.
Cash flow is key
One way to measure a company’s ability to pay dividends is to look at its free cash flow yield. Free cash flow is remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This money can be used to pay for dividends, buy back shares (which can raise earnings and cash flow per share), or fund acquisitions, organic expansion or for other corporate purposes.
If we divide a company’s estimated annual free cash flow per share by its current share price, we have its estimated free cash flow yield. If we compare the free cash flow yield to the current dividend yield, we may see “headroom” for cash to be deployed in ways that can benefit shareholders.
For this screen, we began with the S&P Composite 1500, then narrowed the list as follows:
Dividend yield of at least 5.00%.
Consensus free cash flow estimate available for calendar 2023, among at least five analysts polled by FactSet. We used calendar-year estimates, even though fiscal years for many companies don’t match the calendar.
Estimated 2023 free cash flow yield of at least double the current dividend yield.
For real-estate investment trusts, dividend-paying ability is measured by funds from operations (FFO), a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) takes this a step further, subtracting cash expected to be used to maintain properties. So for the two REITs on the list, the FCF yield column makes use of AFFO.
For many companies in the financial sector, especially banks and insurers, free cash flow figures aren’t available, so the screen made use of earnings-per-share estimates. These are generally considered to run close to actual cash flow for these heavily regulated industries.
Here are the 21 companies that passed the screen, with dividend yields of at least 5% and estimated 2023 FCF yields at least twice the current payout. They are sorted by dividend yield:
Any stock screen has its limitations. If you are interested in stocks listed here, it is best to do your own research, and it is easy to get started by clicking the tickers in the table for more information about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
For the “estimated FCF yields,” consensus free cash flow estimates for calendar 2023 were used for all companies except the following:
For the REITs, (Uniti Group Inc. UNIT, +7.36%
and Macerich Co. MAC, +8.18%
), consensus AFFO estimates were used.
Consensus EPS estimates were used for Prudential Financial Inc. PRU, +5.66%,
Invesco Ltd. IVZ, +6.76%
and Franklin Resources Inc. BEN, +4.37%.
It was a September investors will remember — and not in a good way.
A Friday drop left the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average with their biggest monthly losses since March 2020. And it was the worst September performance for both indexes since 2002. Seasonally inclined investors may wonder what that means for October.
Dow Jones Market Data took a look at how equities have done in the wake of particularly brutal Septembers.
But first, how does the month just ended stack up? The S&P 500 SPX, -1.51%
fell 9.34%, while the Dow DJIA, -1.71%
dropped 8.84% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.43%
declined 10.5%. The Nasdaq’s drop marked its worst September performance since 2008.
Sample size is limited. Not counting the current month, the S&P 500 has seen a September decline of 7% or more 11 times, according to data going back to 1928. The Dow has dropped 7% or more in September 13 times based on data back to 1928. The Nasdaq Composite has suffered a fall of 9% or more in September six times going back to 1986.
Dow Jones Market Data found that in Octobers that follow a 7% or larger fall in September, the S&P 500 rises 0.53% on average in October and sees a median gain of 1.81%. That’s better than the average for all Octobers at 0.47% and the median at 1.03%. October is positive in years following an outsize September loss 54.55% of the time, versus 57.45% for all Octobers (see table below).
S&P 500
Category
7% or worse
All
Average
0.53%
0.47%
Median
1.81%
1.03%
Worst Performance
-16.94%
-21.76%
Best Performance
16.30%
16.30%
% of October’s higher
54.55%
57.45%
Seasonal patterns, however, are only a guide. As MarketWatch’s Isabel Wang noted in a Friday report, many strategists are skeptical of October’s reputation as “bear killer.” They argued that a macroeconomic environment dominated by central banks aggressively tightening monetary policy in a bid to wring out inflation is likely to overshadow favorable seasonal factors.
October is also associated with historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929. The S&P 500 plunged nearly 17% in October 2008 following a 9.1% fall in September in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Dow Jones Market Data, meanwhile, found that in Octobers following a September drop of 7% or more, the Dow has seen an average fall of 1.51% and a median drop of 1.46%. That compares with an average rise of 0.37% for all Octobers and a median gain of 0.79%. The S&P 500 has risen 46.15% of the time in Octobers that follow a 7% or more September decline, versus a rise 57.6% of the time for all Octobers (see table below).
DJIA
Category
7% or worse
All
Average
-1.51%
0.37%
Median
-1.46%
0.79%
Worst Performance
-20.36%
-23.22%
Best Performance
10.60%
10.65%
% of October’s higher
46.15%
57.60%
And here are the numbers for the Nasdaq in October following a September drop of 9% or more:
Category
9% or worse
All
Average
2.19%
0.73%
Median
4.26%
2.16%
Worst Performance
-17.73%
-27.23%
Best Performance
17.17%
17.17%
% of October’s higher
50.00%
54.90%
Since 1950, September has been the worst performing month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 and the worst for the Nasdaq Composite since 1971 and the small-cap Russell 2000 since 1979, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
One cruel truth the stock market confirmed this past week is that trying to pick the bottom for technology stocks is a fool’s errand. The Nasdaq Composite’s terrible September—it was down 10.5% on the month—has made the bottom-fishing that took place over the summer look ill-advised. As I’ve noted before, the first downturn in tech earlier this year was all about valuations. This new phase of the decline is all about softening earnings. When it comes to price-to-earnings ratios, the market is running into a denominator problem.
The market downturn, the weaker economy, and the reversal of some pandemic-era trends have exposed weaknesses in the business models of companies such as
Peloton Interactive
(SNAP), and investors have adjusted valuations accordingly. But there are still some powerful underlying secular trends that should eventually drive tech stocks higher. Investors with long time horizons and strong stomachs might consider inching into the market. I have a few ideas on where to look.
Stocks declined again on Friday, closing out September with large losses across the board as the rally from the June lows partway through August faded into memory.
The S&P 500 SPX, -1.51%
fell 1.5% on Friday. The benchmark index slumped 9.3% for September, leading to a 2022 loss of 24.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.71%
gave up 1.7% on Friday, for a September decline of 8.8%. The Dow has now fallen 20.9% for 2022. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -1.51%
pulled back 1.5% on Friday for a September drop of 10.5% and a year-to-date plunge of 32.4%. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends.)
Below is a list of stocks in the S&P 500 that fell the most during September.
Nike Inc. NKE, -12.81%
was down 13% on Friday for a September decline of 22%, after the company warned that discounting to clear inventory would continue to affect its earnings performance. Here’s how analysts reacted.
U.S. stocks dropped sharply Friday, with major indexes posting their lowest finishes since 2020 and logging a third straight quarterly decline as investors grew more fearful that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will drive the economy into a downturn in an attempt to quell inflation.
What’s happening
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.71%
dropped 500.10 points, or 1.7%, to close at 28,725.51.
The S&P 500 SPX, -1.51%
dropped 54.85 points, or 1.5%, to end at 3,585.61.
The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.43%
shed 161.88 points, of 1.5%, finishing at 10,575.61.
The drop left the Dow and S&P 500 at their lowest since November 2020, while the Nasdaq posted its lowest close since July 29, 2020. The Dow dropped 8.8% in September, while the S&P 500 tumbled 9.3% and the Nasdaq lost 10.5%.
For the quarter, the Dow dropped 6.7%, the S&P 500 declined 5.3% and the Nasdaq gave up 4.1%.
What’s driving the market
In keeping with the historical pattern, U.S. stocks suffered during the month of September as an assertive Federal Reserve helped push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which in turn undermined equity valuations.
Investors on Friday digested a reading from the personal consumption expenditure inflation index for August, which showed that core consumer prices climbed by 0.6% last month, more than Wall Street’s forecast of 0.5%. The core inflation measure excludes volatile food and energy prices.
“That means the Fed will remain hell-bent on killing inflation. And the best way to do that is to increase rates, kill the housing market, and get rental costs down. The PCE doesn’t have housing and rents as a big component as the CPI does, so the fact that it is rising is a warning sign,” said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates, in emailed comments.
The reading largely confirmed similar data from the consumer-price index, another closely watched inflation barometer, which sent stocks lower earlier this month. Since that report was released just over two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 10%.
Helping to underscore this point, data out of the eurozone showed inflation accelerated at a record pace last month.
In other news, investors also heard from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated that the central bank would keep interest rates elevated to combat inflation, even if it harms the economy.
Since it will take time for high interest rates to bring inflation down, Brainard said the Fed is “committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”
Investors were also keeping an eye on megacap tech stocks. Apple Inc. AAPL fell 3% on Friday after leading markets lower a day earlier following a downgrade by Bank of America.
A final reading on the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index for September showed consumers’ view of the economy improved somewhat during the month due to falling gas prices, even as their outlook remained broadly pessimistic.
Investors are now facing “what may be one of the most important earning seasons in a very long time, with a major rally in the cards if earnings don’t disappoint, and if the bears are right, lead to a further leg down if earnings disappoint and 4th quarter estimates are cut,” Navellier said.
Micron Technology MU, +0.18%
stock rose 0.2% after a report that Japan will grant it a $320 million subsidy to make advanced memory chips at its Hiroshima plant. That came a day after Micron posted quarterly earnings that included a forecast for a loss in the coming quarter and plans to scale back a build out of capacity.
— Steve Goldstein and Barbara Kollmeyer contributed to this article
Changing leaves, cooler weather, the scent of pumpkin spice — break out the flannel, Autumn’s here! For many, that might mean back to school, but even if not, it’s a great time to refocus your Japanese studies. Here’s some of the best Japanese learning resources that were new to us over the past few months. So get cozy and get studying!
Migaku Pitch Trainer
Have trouble getting the pitch of that word just right? This is where Migaku Pitch Trainer comes in! With both a free and paid version, users can take lessons and practice training their ears to distinguish between different types of pitch accents used when pronouncing Japanese words. Unlike some other apps with fantasy words to focus on pitch or computer-generated recordings, Migaku Pitch Trainer uses real Japanese words, and has recordings by native speakers.
The home page contains four main areas: Learn, Train Now, Custom Session, and Achievements. Near the bottom are links to a placement test, as well as a reference guide. Many of these features are free to use to a point, but some (like the Custom Session and placement test) require a paid account from the get-go. Later lessons also require a paid account. For the overall design and quality, it seems like a site worth using. And the audio sound quality is great which makes being able to distinguish between different pitch patterns easy.
Some of the audio files may not play immediately upon being clicked, and some of the recordings may cut off at weird places, but other than that, this site is a great place to get in some pitch accent practice. The addition of a fluid interface and an achievements section really add to the appeal of the site. Going through the lessons is fun, and you can really feel the improvement in your pitch accent skills.
Pokémon Kids TV Japan
Pokémon-loving learners of Japanese, rejoice! If you didn’t know already, there is a Pokémon-themed YouTube channel with lots of great videos in Japanese (and English) that may be useful for listening practice and immersion. Videos are designed for kids, so the Japanese used in each one is relatively simple, slow, and many videos come with Japanese subtitles!
There are a number of different kinds of videos. The channel currently boasts 23 different playlists ranging in content from ASMR, to exercise videos, to stories, and more. The Experience Adventure playlist is also very educational. Ever want to learn more about airplanes and pilots? There’s a video for that! What about sumo or dentistry? There are videos all about those too.
Even though these videos are aimed at Japanese children, they can be very valuable to learners of Japanese as well. The inclusion of subtitles in Japanese helps viewers confirm what they are hearing, and can serve as a way to encounter new vocabulary. It’s fun to use Pokémon Kids TV to learn new words in context. Learners looking to improve their listening skills can use the audio as listening practice, while confirming later with subtitles. But learning aside, the videos on this channel are top-notch quality and overall enjoyable to watch. The abundance of topics also means that there is just about something for everyone to enjoy!
JLPT Grammar List and Example Sentences by Chika Sensei’s Japanese Academy
Chika Sensei’s Japanese Academy is a site dedicated to helping Japanese learners study for the Japanese Language Proficiency Test (JLPT) at all levels. They offer a range of services, from private classes to grammar explanation videos on YouTube. Now, Chika Sensei has a list of Japanese grammar points into documents differentiated by JLPT level. By submitting your name and email address at her website, you will be sent an email containing links to these grammar lists free of charge.
The lists themselves are high quality, and contain a large amount of grammar structures. In every level, she demonstrates each point with an example sentence. At lower levels (N5-N4), she includes an English equivalent of the grammar structure, as well as an English translation of the example sentence in Japanese. And in the N1 lists, all English goes away and is instead supplemented by multiple example sentences in Japanese. It seems that N1 learners get some tough love here, as they will have to look up each grammar point via other resources if they desire an explanation.
A major plus about these grammar lists is the fact that there is a checkbox for every grammar point. This allows learners to physically check off any grammar structure they think is mastered. Paper-and-pen studiers may particularly enjoy this feature. And arguably the best part about these lists is that they are all free. To create such a nice, useful resource and put it out on the Internet in this way is absolutely amazing.
JPDB.io
JPDB.io is a web app combining a rich Japanese native material database with an SRS to learn the vocabulary for anime, dramas, novels, and more; before you dive in to immerse yourself. Many Japanese learners are familiar with using reading or other native material to learn Japanese as it’s used in context, from grammar to vocabulary. However, rather than making flashcards from words you don’t know from a book you’re currently reading, for example, JPDB.io allows you to learn and review the words you don’t know before even opening the cover.
Combined with this novel approach to vocabulary building is a full-featured Japanese media database. While other sites offer lists of various recommended books or TV series for Japanese learners, by combining this with an SRS that knows your vocabulary, JPDB.io is able to offer recommendations for media that should already be very comprehensible to you.
It’s still in active development, so it’s not quite perfect yet, but JPDB is quickly becoming a one-stop-shop for Japanese learners who want to build their vocabularies and practice with native media all in one place.
Immersion Kit
Ever find a Japanese word out of context, and want an example sentence you’ll actually remember? Or find a word in a novel, news article, or out in the world, and want something a little more dynamic to make a flashcard out of? Look no further than Immersion Kit!
Immersion Kit is a dictionary site containing over 400,000 different Japanese sentences from various anime series. Additionally, every sentence has a screenshot from that moment in the anime, as well as the audio of the line from the show. From there, users can download entire flashcards to add to their Anki decks, or just the audio or picture if you’d like to make your own.
By default, the sentences are sorted by length, with the shortest appearing up top, but you can filter by JLPT level, WaniKani level, or even the anime it comes from (if you wanted to make a deck with only sentences from Fullmetal Alchemist Brotherhood, for example). The anime database is by far the largest, though sentences from dramas, games, news, and literature are slowly being added as well.
All in all, Immersion Kit is a great site for Japanese learners who appreciate seeing words in context to learn.
Speak Japanese Naturally
Speak Japanese Naturally is a Japanese-language learning YouTube channel launched in June of 2020. The host, Fumi, offers a wide range of instructive videos, focusing on grammar, pronunciation, and as the name implies, getting closer to how Japanese is actually spoken rather than “textbook language.”
Fumi uses a ton of different sources, from interviews, music, and anime, to help convey her explanations. These explanations are offered in English, making Speak Japanese Naturally a great channel for even beginner or lower-intermediate Japanese learners.
While pitch accents, pronunciation, and natural phrasing are cornerstones of Speak Japanese Language, the content isn’t quite as honed in as some channels, which might only focus on grammar, for example. But on the other hand, this keeps videos feeling fresh, offering a spread of videos interesting to many different types of learners. If you want to make your Japanese sound a bit more natural, or just want to mix up your YouTube rotation, give Speak Japanese Naturally a try!
週末の酒がうまい、BRUTUSの聞くレシピ
Cooks and foodies alike are in for a treat with the Brutus Weekend Cooking podcast, 週末の酒がうまい、BRUTUSの聞くレシピ. If you’re not yet familiar with BRUTUS, it’s a Japanese lifestyle magazine with articles on fashion, travel, and more. Each of these podcast episodes is around 20 minutes long and focuses on one dish and one beverage that pair nicely together. The podcast hosts and occasional guests discuss how to make the food and drink as well as related topics, like the best place to enjoy these meals.
Unlike a cooking video, where viewers can watch the cooking techniques and mimic them later, the lack of visuals forces you to test your listening comprehension. If you’ve been wanting to learn more cooking-related terminology, this will be a good opportunity for you to hear more about how to mix, chop, or sauté in Japanese. The speed of the conversation is relatively slow despite being a podcast for native speakers. Japanese learners from upper beginner on will be able to enjoy this series.
Each podcast episode is also accompanied by an article on the menu, which you can find on the BRUTUS website under the “Cook” or 料理する section. The articles are in Japanese and include the recipe as well as some beautiful photos of the pairings. Listen before your next dinner party and see how your creation turns out!
AxTongue
Do you learn best through music? Are you a fan of Japanese karaoke? If so, AxTongue could be a resource you want to know about. AxTongue is a website that features YouTube videos of Japanese songs with user-submitted lyrics in both Japanese and English. That means that you can listen to Japanese songs and practice the language at the same time.
While watching a music video, you can follow along with the captions conveniently displayed below. The highlighted portion of the Japanese lyrics will correspond to the highlighted portion of the English lyrics. There’s an added element of learning with some words removed from the lyrics, and later revealed when that part is sung. There are also more detailed explanations in the upper corner for specific grammar and word help.
Currently, AxTongue primarily features songs, but also includes some language learning conversation videos as well. This resource could be used by any level of learner but is particularly good for upper beginners and intermediate learners. Whether you’d like to give these songs a listen or contribute your own lyrics to a video, head on over to their site.
にほんごで働く！ビジネス日本語30時間
Have you ever thought about working for a Japanese company? Does the thought of using honorific speech and strict business mannerisms scare you? If so, you may want to check out にほんごで働く！ビジネス日本語30時間 (meaning Work in Japanese! Business Japanese in 30 Hours). Originally published in 2009, this book was updated in early 2022. Like your standard business Japanese textbook, it makes sure you are well-versed in using honorific speech (keigo) and provides plenty of opportunities to practice through sample conversations and role-play activities.
Separated into eight chapters, you will learn what to do and say at a Japanese company in a number of situations: taking phone calls, asking requests, receiving permission, making appointments, and more. Each chapter begins with a warm-up quiz, special expressions, and business-related vocabulary. Then it goes into short interactions, which become the basis of longer conversations in the following section. After that is a role-play section, a practice section (with an emphasis on honorific speech), and finally, a business column in which aspects of Japanese business culture and manners are explained.
As the title indicates, the entire book can be completed in just 30 hours if you dedicate around 3-4 hours per chapter. The design is minimalistic and completely in monochrome which may not be ideal for some learners. It also does not directly teach you honorific speech in each chapter; an explanation of honorific speech is provided in the back of the book.
That said, it does include a separate word booklet with English, Chinese, and Korean translations of all the vocabulary and phrases, which is convenient for people who dislike having to flip to the glossary in the back of the book when they want to look up a word. Additionally, furigana is used above every kanji, so that every word is readable. Plus, all vocabulary presented in each chapter includes pitch accent information. This is valuable for learners who wish to sound as native as possible. And as with many textbooks, there is an accompanying CD with native recordings of all of the sample conversations.
While the minimalist, wordy design may not be everyone’s cup of tea, the amount of content and features packed into this book is definitely worth the price. There’s a consistent flow throughout, and the business culture information at the end of each chapter is really valuable. According to the teacher information at the front of the book, this text’s difficulty is somewhere around JLPT N2 and above. If you are studying for those tests (or just for business Japanese in particular), then this book may be just what you are looking for.
RiceBurger Studios
If you’re looking for some cute and entertaining videos to watch to learn Japanese, RiceBurger Studios has you covered. These videos can be found on both their YouTube channel and Instagram page, with slightly different content depending on the platform. The main two characters, Oni and Han – derived from the words onigiri and hanbāgā — are a talking riceball and hamburger duo that teach Japanese in a fun and approachable way. This is similar to their creators, two friends whose imagination inspired the voices and animation behind it.
The videos that RiceBurger offers cover various topics like helpful conversational phrases, casual speech, grammar points, and other exercises. Most of these videos are under two minutes in length so you can breeze through them quickly. In these videos, the characters use a mix of Japanese and English. Oftentimes, there are captions to go along with the dialogue in both languages as well. Learners who are around intermediate level will find this the most helpful, but these can be viewed and enjoyed by almost all learners.
Let’s Learn Japanese with Movies Podcast
Any film buffs out there? The Let’s Learn Japanese with Movies Podcast is a podcast designed for people just like you! The way it works is there are three parts to the resource — the film, the podcast, and the transcripts of the podcast. You can choose the order of operations here based on what you’d like to focus on. The films are short, mostly award-winners, and in various languages, including silent films.
Each film is broken down into multi-part podcast series where the host, Aki, discusses the film in slow and simple Japanese. The speed and level of vocabulary makes this a good podcast for beginner learners, which it’s intended for. The episodes are all about ten minutes long and are entirely in Japanese, except for the occasional English translation word used to help listeners. There is also a Q&A session during the podcasts where Aki asks the listener questions based on what’s been said, motivating the listener to pay close attention to the details. Give it a watch, a listen, and a read!
Kanji Adventures for Gamers and Vtuber Fans by Nihongo Picnic
Kanji Adventures for Gamers and Vtuber Fans is an online course by Nihongo Picnic, a Japanese language school that offers a variety of different courses geared towards the JLPT, business Japanese, kanji, and more.
The class is geared towards learners around the JLPT N3 level but can accommodate learners at the N4 and N2 levels as well. Words with kanji that are common in the Japanese gaming and vtuber (short for virtual YouTuber — someone that makes videos on YouTube using a virtual avatar) communities make up the main content of each lesson. And while word meanings and usages are broken down, the real focus is on their kanji. The entire course covers about 140 kanji and lasts three months, meeting once a week. English is often used by the teacher to explain difficult concepts.
A typical lesson will open with a theme and short discussion. The theme for the sample class was ゲームスキル (game skills) and introduced six words made up of two kanji each, totaling 12 kanji to be learned in that session. For example, we covered two words: 連打 (renda, button-mashing) and 裏技 (urawaza, hidden move or life hack).
Learners are first taught how to pronounce each word
using standard pitch-accent based on the NHK pitch accent dictionary.
Then, kanji for each of these words are broken down into their
individual components and memory hints are provided (similar to what WaniKani does). Learners are also given a chance to write each character on the screen. Once each character is broken down and the full word can be recognized, there is a short conversation that utilizes the word in question. Students are given a chance to practice the dialogue with other students and the teacher. When the class finishes going through all of the words for that lesson, homework is assigned. The class also references WaniKani a lot, offering students a coupon code, and optional homework connected to the app; though being a WaniKani user is not required.
We sampled this Kanji Adventures for Gamers and Vtuber Fans class and it was highly enjoyable; the instructor was very understanding and really made sure all the students were accommodated. The colorful slides, and opportunities to use what one has learned are a huge plus that learners of any level will benefit from.
The course can seem a bit pricey, but that stems from the fact that Nihongo Picnic offers small courses with certified professional, native Japanese teachers. If you would like online lessons with a small class size, Nihongo Picnic likely has something you can take for the right price.
While that might be all for this edition, the fun doesn’t have to stop here! Should you happen across any other great resources, send us an email at hello@tofugu.com, or reach out to us on Twitter @tofugu. We love hearing from you, and finding new study resources to share together!
[ad_2]
David Honeycutt, Ian J. Battaglia, and Rachel Grant
The numbers: Mortgage rates continue to march towards 7%, continuing to pressure potential homeowners looking to buy a home.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.7% as of Sept. 29, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC, +0.75%
on Thursday.
Mortgage rates are up as the Federal Reserve pushed key interest rates up to deal with the worst inflation the country has seen in 40 years.
That’s up 41 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point, or 1% of 1%.
The rise in rates is bad news for prospective buyers, as it potentially adds hundreds of dollars to their mortgage payments.
Mortgage rates are now at highs last seen since mid-2007. To put the latest rate in perspective: A year ago, the 30-year was at 3.01%.
“Mortgage rates are now at highs last seen since mid-2007. To put the latest rate in perspective: A year ago, the 30-year was at 3.01%.”
Bloomberg’s chief economist Michael McDonough said a $2,500 monthly mortgage payment — with 20% down — would have gotten a buyer a $758,000 home last year.
This year? You’d get a lot less house — with $2,500 per month, you’d only be able to afford a $476,000 home, he wrote on Twitter TWTR, -1.12%.
The median price of an existing home in the U.S. was $389,500 in August, down from $403,800 the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said.
The average rate on the 15-year mortgage also rose over the past week to 5.96%. The adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 5.3%, up from the prior week.
“The uncertainty and volatility in financial markets is heavily impacting mortgage rates,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement.
Khater added that Freddie Mac’s survey of lenders revealed a large dispersion in rates, so home buyers should shop around with lenders to find a good quote.
Mortgage applications also fell in the latest week, as cautious buyers continue to pull back as rates march towards 7%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.784%
rose slightly above 3.8% in morning trading on Thursday.
Got thoughts on the housing market? Write to MarketWatch reporter Aarthi Swaminathan at aarthi@marketwatch.com
The weather is forecasted to be brutally hot this weekend, starting at 100 degrees today and going up to 104 tomorrow. Even though the heat is bad enough, we know that this could get much worse if there are any power outages. The more we do TODAY, the more likely we are to stay on top of any catastrophic changes that may arise without warning. You can help us get the resources we need to stay ahead of the danger by giving NOW.
By making a gift today, you immediately help us keep animals safe. But there are several more ways you can help. Just like with Winter Storm Uri, we know we have to tackle this emergency with a three-prong approach.
1. The pets in our care: The most important thing we need today is to move as many dogs as possible to foster homes where they can get out of the deadly heat. Despite the work that has gone into improving our facilities with more shade and misters, this weather is still extremely dangerous for our most vulnerable dogs.
We need fosters and adopters to show up from 12-6 p.m. and help by taking home a dog while we get through this triple-digit heat wave.
2. The pets in our community: Triple-digit heat waves like this can kill pets much faster than people. You can save animals NOW by posting on NextDoor asking neighbors to put water out for wildlife and community cats. If you can, offer to help a neighbor who has an outdoor dog with shade, ice, lots of water and even fans, and ask folks to keep pets indoors from 10 a.m.-8 p.m. each day to avoid accidental heatstroke. Our Positive Alternatives to Shelter Surrender (P.A.S.S.) Program ([email protected]) is also standing by to connect people to hot weather supplies and advice.
We have put up signs along the trails around Town Lake warning of heat stroke in dogs and we have sent press releases to the media almost every day this week. We need your help continuing to spread the word that this 100+ degree weather will kill.
3. The pets in Texas: Austin is very fortunate to have so much love for pets in need, as many communities do not have the same resources. Our American Pets Alive! team regularly helps shelters in these communities treat illnesses and get more pets adopted instead of euthanized. Right now, those communities have asked for support in keeping pets cool. We are preparing large transports of supplies to these shelters tomorrow and through the weekend to include fans, misters, and kongs that can be frozen.
You can help us support these communities in Texas with the supplies they need to keep shelter pets safe by making a gift NOW.
Thank you for supporting pets during this weather emergency. We know how important the lives of companion animals are to you and we are so grateful for your teamwork to make sure pets are safe.
WASHINGTON, April 29, 2022 (Newswire.com)
– NHCOA is launching an online campaign dedicated to bringing awareness about caring for the caregiver sponsored by AARP. Being a caregiver can be very rewarding, but it can also be stressful. Caregivers not only have to take charge of looking after their loved ones but also need to upkeep their personal lives; it can be an overwhelming way of life. But as a very important role in society, it is extremely crucial for caregivers to practice day-to-day activities that will help them to maintain a healthy mindset.
Caregivers need to be mentally and physically healthy in order to be able to assist those who need their help. Family and professional caregivers need to be aware of their own health, and self-care and be mindful to not put their well-being at risk. The combination of loss, prolonged stress, the physical demands of caregiving, and the biological vulnerabilities that come with age can place one at risk for significant health problems as well as early death.
“The importance of the campaign is to ensure that caregivers can recognize themselves as an essential part of the field and that they need to care for themselves with the same diligence as they care for others. Through the virtual campaign, they can find resources and tools to keep themselves mentally and physically healthy,” states Dr. Yanira Cruz, President and CEO of NHCOA.
“As Latinos, caring for family and friends is one of life’s greatest honors,” says Yvette Peña, Vice President in the Office of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion at AARP. “It’s also one of life’s greatest responsibilities. AARP is proud to work with NHCOA to make sure caregivers feel supported in their role by equipping them with the resources, knowledge, and plans they need to look after those they love.“
Faced with the urgent need to make caregivers aware of the importance of caring for their own health with the same attention they give to their loved one’s health, NHCOA has partnered with AARP to create an online campaign titled “Caring for the Caregiver.” The digital campaign consists of social media posts and articles that will be published on NHCOA’s social channels. Follow the campaign on our social media to learn more about this project and see important information for taking care of caregivers.
About the National Hispanic Council on Aging (NHCOA): NHCOA is the leading national organization working to improve the lives of Hispanic older adults, their families and their caregivers. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., NHCOA has been a strong voice dedicated to promoting, educating, and advocating for research, policy, and practice in the areas of economic security, health, and housing for Hispanic older adults, families, and caregivers for more than 50 years.
About AARP: AARP is the nation’s largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering people 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence and nearly 38 million members, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also produces the nation’s largest circulation publications: AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org, www.aarp.org/espanol or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspanol and @AARPadvocates, @AliadosAdelante on social media.
——————————————-
Contact: Marcela Martínez
Company: National Hispanic Council on Aging (NHCOA)
