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https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-movers-fb3791aa
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Traveling this Memorial Day Weekend? Put some deep breaths on your checklist.
Americans should brace for jammed highways and long airport lines with more people projected to drive and fly this holiday weekend compared to last year, experts say.
Gas is $1 cheaper than it was at the same point last year and airline passengers aren’t flinching from pricey tickets, still powered by the pent-up demand to see family and friends as the pandemic recedes.
“The roads are going to be pretty packed,” said AAA spokeswoman Aixa Diaz. “The bottom line is, the later you wait in the day, the worse it is — unless you drive at night.”
“If there ever was a time you wanted to get to the airport early, it’s this one,” she added.
“Whether driving or flying, pack your patience and prepare for heavy traffic on the road and at the airport,” said Erika Richter, spokeswoman for the American Society of Travel Advisors.
“AAA is projecting that 37.1 million people will be driving at least 50 miles this upcoming weekend. That’s 2 million more people traveling by automobile compared to last year.”
AAA is projecting that 37.1 million people will be driving at least 50 miles this upcoming weekend. That’s 2 million more people traveling by automobile compared to last year.
They’ll be driving on cheaper gas. Nationally, a gallon of gas averaged $3.57 on Thursday, down from $4.59 one year ago, AAA said.
Read also: Why this falling fuel price is stoking recession fears even as prime gas-demand season nears
Meanwhile, nearly 3.4 million airline passengers are projected to fly this weekend, according to AAA. That would surpass pre-pandemic levels, when 3.2 million people flew over the Memorial Day Weekend in 2019.
All together, 42.3 million people are expected to travel this weekend via cars, planes, buses, trains, according to AAA estimates. That’s higher than the 39.6 million who traveled last Memorial Day Weekend, and just under 2019 levels.
Three major airlines, American Airlines
AAL,
United
UAL,
and Delta Air Lines
DAL,
are expected to handle nearly 60% of the flights, according to a Thursday note from TD Cowen.
Like others, analysts at TD Cowen, a division of TD Securities, say it’s going to be a brisk summer travel season.
“We continue to see strong demand for air travel, with this summer’s focus on international [travel]. Remember, the U.S. government did not eliminate testing until mid-June last year, after most people planned their vacations,” they wrote.
Related: Is it possible to book a cheap summer flight? Here are 5 tricks to save money.
Friday is the day when roads and airports are going to be the busiest.
On the roads, congestion is going to peak that day from 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m., according to INRIX, a traffic-data analytics firm.
Inside airports, approximately 2.6 million people will pass through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints that day, the agency said.
During last year’s Memorial Day Weekend, 2.38 million people passed through TSA checkpoints, the agency’s data showed.
Teens, aged 13-17, can now go with TSA PreCheck-enrolled parents and guardians, when they are on the same reservation and when the TSA PreCheck indicator shows on the child’s pass. Children ages 12 and under can still walk through checkpoints with their enrolled parents or guardians.
Once getting on the plane, don’t count on having a nearby spare seat. Seating capacity is currently slated to be 17% higher than last Memorial Day Weekend, according to the travel app Hopper.com.
This weekend, last-minute tickets are averaging $273, and that’s around $100 less than ticket-price averages at the same point last year and slightly cheaper than 2019 levels, Hopper.com’s data said. International travel is a different story. Fares to Europe, for example, are more than 50% higher than last year, according to Hopper.com.
On the roads, there’s little extra traffic expected on Saturday and Sunday, according to projections from INRIX, a transportation analytics company. On Monday, the worst traveling time is 12 p.m. to 3 p.m. The window for less traffic that day is before 10 a.m., INRIX noted.
As for flights, Richter said airlines and operators “are obligated to share the latest information if it impacts your travel.”
Downloading smartphone apps for your airline, activating the notifications and opting for text and email alerts will also help keep you abreast of any last-minute changes, she said.
Through March, less than 2% of scheduled domestic flights have been canceled, the U.S. Department of Transportation said Tuesday. That’s below last year’s 2.7% cancellation average and the 4.1% rate for the first three months of 2022, the department noted.
A Transportation Department dashboard shows which airline carriers have committed to passenger-friendly accommodations when delays and cancellations occur. For example, some — but not all — airlines will rebook your flight with a partner airline at no additional cost.
But Richter said the volume and potentials for travel snags this Memorial Day Weekend could be a preview for the months to come. “Travel delays will be inevitable this summer, so make sure you are planning ahead,” she said.
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Shares of Delta Air Lines Inc. surged Thursday, after the air carrier swung to a first-quarter profit as revenue rose above expectations, and said it was “confident” in its full-year projections given a “strong” outlook for the current quarter.
The company reported a net loss that narrowed to $363 million, or 57 cents a share, from $940 million, or $1.48 a share, in the same period a year ago.
But…
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Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. were rocked Wednesday, after the air carrier raised its profit outlook, but not by enough to match Wall Street expectations.
The company said before the open that it expects first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 1 cent to 5 cents, compared with a per-share loss of $2.32 a year ago. While that’s better than previous guidance for an “approximately breakeven” quarter, the average EPS estimate of analysts surveyed by FactSet was 5 cents.
The…
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U.S. stocks finished higher Friday, as investors weighed a flurry of bank earnings results for the fourth quarter and fresh data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
All three major benchmarks also booked their best weekly percentage gains since Nov. 11, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
For the week, the Dow rose 2%, the S&P 500 advanced 2.7% and the Nasdaq gained 4.8% gain.
Read: Goldman Sachs sees these ‘prospective’ total returns across assets in 2023
Major stock indexes posted their best week of gains in two months on Friday after companies began reporting their fourth-quarter results, with big banks kicking off the earnings season.
No big surprises have come from the banks’ earnings results so far, with Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicating a potentially mild recession this year, according to Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.
“I think the base case for most of the market right now is that we’re going to see a mild recession,” Saglimbene said in a phone interview Friday. “I don’t think anything that was said across bank earnings today surprised investors.”
Typically, the release of megabank earnings marks the unofficial start of the U.S. earnings reporting season, and market analysts will be watching closely this quarter for indications of how America’s largest companies are bracing for an expected economic downturn driven by higher interest rates.
JPMorgan
JPM,
Bank of America
BAC,
Wells Fargo & Co.
WFC,
and Citigroup
C,
were among banks that reported their fourth-quarter earnings Friday. JPMorgan was the top performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with its shares closing 2.5% higher, FactSet data show.
Earnings will continue to be a “big focus” for markets this month, according to Saglimbene. “Analysts took down estimates pretty aggressively in the fourth quarter,” he said. “So the bar is pretty low for companies. We’ll see if they can hurdle past that.”
In U.S. economic data released Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index climbed in January to its highest level in nine months, as expectations for the rate of inflation one year out moderated.
“Signs that inflation has peaked and is moderating slowly kind of eases some of the anxiety that we’re going to see runaway inflation this year,” said Saglimbene.
A reading from the consumer-price index on Thursday showed U.S. inflation fell in December. Many investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest rate hikes this year as the cost of living has cooled.
Read: Inflation slows again and clears path for slower Fed rate hikes
Stocks on Thursday pushed higher after St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the probability of a soft landing for the economy has increased due to “encouraging” inflation data.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said by phone Friday that he still favors consumer-staples stocks and companies with “more steady streams than more cyclical streams” of income. “If you’re looking at an economy that’s likely to slow down, it’s really hard for me to think that somehow ‘the cyclicals’ will be immune from the economic cycle,” he said.
Read: Why earnings season could be a ‘market-moving event’
—Barbara Kollmeyer contributed to this article.
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Pour one out for the beleaguered economists, who for once got an important indicator, the consumer price index, right on the nose, after CPI fell 0.1% in December, while core prices rose 0.3%.
“The 2021 surge in durable goods demand normalized, and the resulting collapse in durable goods price inflation was stunningly fast,” says Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management.
“The commodity wave of inflation is fading, and that leaves the profit margin expansion in focus,” he adds. What a good time for earnings season to be upon us, and what do you know, it is, kicking off with the banking sector on Friday before broadening out next week.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs have a new note out, saying that the market is pricing in a soft landing even though the trend of earnings revisions points to a hard landing.
They’re not that optimistic — even in the soft-landing scenario, the team led by David Kostin say the S&P 500
SPX,
will end the year right around current levels, at 4,000. But they identify 46 stocks that could benefit — profitable, cyclical companies that are trading at price-to-earnings valuations below their 10-year median, among other factors.
One name jumps out: Tesla
TSLA,
which trades at 22 times forward earnings versus the 10-year median of 117 times. But the other 45 names are less flashy, ranging from Capital One
COF,
and Carlyle Group
CG,
to a host of industrials including 3M
MMM,
Parker-Hannifan
PH,
and Otis Worldwide
OTIS,
As a whole, these typically $10 billion companies are trading at 12 times earnings, versus 17 times usually.
In the hard landing scenario, S&P 500 profit margins would shrink by 125 basis points, to 10.9% — about in line with the median peak-to-trough decline during the eight recessions since 1970, which has been 132 basis points. Consensus expectations are for a 26 basis-point margin decline.
The Goldman team also have a 36 stock screen for a hard landing — profitable companies in defensive industries with a positive dividend yield. They’re typically food, beverage and tobacco companies as well as software and services companies — including Costco Wholesale
COST,
Kroger
KR,
Altria
MO,
Tyson Foods
TSN,
Microsoft
MSFT,
MasterCard
MA,
and Visa
V,
As a whole, these $37 billion companies are trading at 22 times earnings vs. a historical 24 times.
After a 2.3% advance for the S&P 500
SPX,
over the last three sessions, U.S. stock futures
ES00,
NQ00,
declined on Friday.
The yield on the Japanese 10-year bond
TMBMKJP-10Y,
exceeded 0.5%, the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, ahead of next week’s rate decision , prompting a second day of aggressive bond purchases from the central bank.
For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.
Fourth-quarter earnings were rolling out from Bank of America
BAC,
JPMorgan Chase
JPM,
Citigroup
C,
and Wells Fargo
WFC,
and outside of banks, Delta Air Lines
DAL,
BlackRock
BLK,
and UnitedHealth
UNH,
JPMorgan shares slumped after forecast-beating earnings, though investment bank revenue came in light of estimates. Delta shares also declined after topping earnings estimates.
Tesla
TSLA,
cut prices of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the U.S. and elsewhere by up to 20%. The electric vehicle maker stock dropped 6%.
Virgin Galactic
SPCE,
surged after saying it’s on track to launch space-tourism flights in the second quarter.
Apple
AAPL,
says CEO Tim Cook requested, and received, a pay cut after investor criticism.
The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index is due at 10 a.m. Eastern, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker are due to speak.
Tyler Winklevoss said charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission brought about Gemini Trust for allegedly offering unregistered securities were “super lame” as it seeks to unfreeze $900 million in investor assets.
There’s a bull market in swearing on corporate earnings calls.
The West is now preparing to send tanks to Ukraine in what could be another escalation of its conflict with Russia, which on Friday claimed victory in the eastern town of Soledar.
A look back at photos of Lisa Marie Presley, who died at age 54.
Here were the most active stock-market tickers as of 6 a.m. Eastern.
| Ticker | Security name |
|
BBBY, |
Bed Bath & Beyond |
|
TSLA, |
Tesla |
|
GME, |
GameStop |
|
AMC, |
AMC Entertainment |
|
MULN, |
Mullen Automotive |
|
NIO, |
Nio |
|
APE, |
AMC Entertainment preferreds |
|
AAPL, |
Apple |
|
SPCE, |
Virgin Galactic |
|
AMZN, |
Amazon.com |
Like a scene out of “Stranger Things” — there’s uproar after new restrictions on the Hasbro
HAS,
game Dungeons & Dragons.
Starting next month, Starbucks
SBUX,
rewards will be less generous for most items, though iced coffee will be easier to get.
Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.
Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.
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Southwest Airlines Co. canceled more than two-thirds of its flights Monday and plans to slash its schedules Tuesday and Wednesday, in a meltdown that stranded thousands of customers and that worsened while other airlines began to recover from the holiday winter storm.
“We had a tough day today. In all likelihood we’ll have another tough day tomorrow as we work our way out of this,” Chief Executive Bob Jordan said in an interview Monday evening. “This is the largest scale event that I’ve ever seen.”
Southwest
LUV,
plans to operate just over one-third of its typical schedule in the coming days to give itself leeway for crews to get into the right positions, he said, adding that the reduced schedule could be extended.
Southwest’s more than 2,800 scrapped flights Monday, the highest of any major U.S. airline, came as the Dallas-based airline proved unable to stabilize its operations amid the past week’s storm. Between Thursday and Monday, the airline canceled about 8,000 flights, according to FlightAware.
On Monday, the Department of Transportation called Southwest’s rate of cancellations “disproportionate and unacceptable” and said it would examine whether the cancellations were controllable and whether the airline is complying with its customer service plan.
Ryan Green, Southwest’s chief commercial officer, said in an interview the airline is taking steps such as covering customers’ reasonable travel costs—including hotels, rental cars and tickets on other airlines, and will be communicating the process for customers to have expenses reimbursed. He also said customers whose flights are being canceled as the airline recovers are entitled to refunds if they opt not to travel.
The troubles at Southwest intensified Monday despite generally improving weather conditions and warming temperatures throughout much of the eastern half of the country, which had been pummeled by snow, wind and subfreezing temperatures in recent days.
An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.
Trending at WSJ.com:
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Delta Air Lines’ stock rose 4.7% before market open on Wednesday after the company raised its earnings guidance.
The carrier
DAL,
said it is executing on its three-year recovery plan, with year-one results ahead of expectations. Delta also highlighted robust demand for air travel as the industry recovers from the widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The carrier raised its 2022 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.07 to $3.12. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for earnings of $2.88 a share. For 2023, Delta Air Lines Inc. forecast a near doubling of adjusted earnings to $5 to $6 a share.
See Now: After too little, too much, there are ‘Goldilocks’ conditions for air travel in 2023
Delta also forecast 2023 revenue growth at 15% to 20% compared with 2022 and said it is on track to meet its 2024 earnings target of more than $7 a share. “Demand for air travel remains robust as we exit the year and Delta’s momentum is building,” said Delta CEO Ed Bastian, in a statement.
Delta said it expects to deliver strong topline growth in 2023 and significant operating leverage, boosted by a full restoration of its network and continued improvements in premium and loyalty revenue.
Non-fuel unit costs are expected to decline 5% to 7%, driving Delta’s margin expansion and adjusted earnings growth, the company said. Delta expects to generate more than $2 billion of free cash flow, which it said will enable further debt reduction.
See Now: Delta kicked off airline earnings season with a bang. What does it mean for other carriers?
“2022 is proving to be a pivotal year as we rebuild the world’s best-performing airline,” said Bastian, in the statement.
The company’s robust guidance boosted other airline stocks before market open, with United Airlines Holdings Inc.
UAL,
rising 1.4%, American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL,
gaining 1.3%, and JetBlue Airways Corp.
JBLU,
rising 1.3%.
Delta shares have fallen 14.6% this year, compared with the S&P 500 index’s
SPX,
decline of 15.7% and the U.S Global Jets ETF’s
JETS,
slump of 14.3%.
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Following a sharp and sustained rise in interest rates, U.S. stocks have taken a broad beating this year.
But 2023 may bring very different circumstances.
Below are lists of analysts’ favorite stocks among the benchmark S&P 500
SPX,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
MID
and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
SML
that are expected to rise the most over the next year. Those lists are followed by a summary of opinions of all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA.
Stocks rallied on Dec. 13 when the November CPI report showed a much slower inflation pace than economists had expected. Investors were also anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee’s next monetary policy announcement on Dec. 14. The consensus among economists polled by FactSet is for the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%.
Read: 5 things to watch when the Fed makes its interest-rate decision
A 0.50% increase would be a slowdown from the four previous increases of 0.75%. The rate began 2022 in a range of zero to 0.25%, where it had sat since March 2020.
A pivot for the Fed Reserve and the possibility that the federal funds rate will reach its “terminal” rate (the highest for this cycle) in the near term could set the stage for a broad rally for stocks in 2023.
Among the S&P 500, 92 stocks are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts working for brokerage firms. That number itself is interesting — at the end of 2021, 93 of the S&P 500 had this distinction. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined 16% in 2022, with all sectors down except for energy, which has risen 53%, and the utilities sector, which his risen 1% (both excluding dividends).
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, based on consensus price targets:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| EQT Corp. | EQT | Oil and Gas Production | $36.91 | $59.70 | 62% | 78% | 69% |
| Catalent Inc. | CTLT | Pharmaceuticals | $45.50 | $72.42 | 59% | 75% | -64% |
| Amazon.com Inc. | AMZN | Internet Retail | $90.55 | $136.02 | 50% | 91% | -46% |
| Global Payments Inc. | GPN | Misc. Commercial Services | $99.64 | $147.43 | 48% | 75% | -26% |
| Signature Bank | SBNY | Regional Banks | $122.73 | $180.44 | 47% | 78% | -62% |
| Salesforce Inc. | CRM | Software | $133.11 | $195.59 | 47% | 80% | -48% |
| Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A | BIO | Medical Specialties | $418.28 | $591.00 | 41% | 100% | -45% |
| Zoetis Inc. Class A | ZTS | Pharmaceuticals | $152.86 | $212.80 | 39% | 87% | -37% |
| Delta Air Lines Inc. | DAL | Airlines | $34.77 | $48.31 | 39% | 90% | -11% |
| Diamondback Energy Inc. | FANG | Oil and Gas Production | $134.21 | $182.33 | 36% | 84% | 24% |
| Caesars Entertainment Inc | CZR | Casinos/ Gaming | $50.27 | $67.79 | 35% | 81% | -46% |
| Alphabet Inc. Class A | GOOGL | Internet Software/ Services | $93.31 | $125.70 | 35% | 92% | -36% |
| Halliburton Co. | HAL | Oilfield Services/ Equipment | $34.30 | $45.95 | 34% | 86% | 50% |
| Alaska Air Group Inc. | ALK | Airlines | $45.75 | $61.08 | 34% | 93% | -12% |
| Targa Resources Corp. | TRGP | Gas Distributors | $70.42 | $93.95 | 33% | 95% | 35% |
| Charles River Laboratories International Inc. | CRL | Misc. Commercial Services | $201.94 | $269.25 | 33% | 88% | -46% |
| ServiceNow Inc. | NOW | Information Technology Services | $401.64 | $529.83 | 32% | 92% | -38% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. | TTWO | Software | $102.61 | $135.04 | 32% | 79% | -42% |
| EOG Resources Inc. | EOG | Oil and Gas Production | $124.06 | $158.24 | 28% | 82% | 40% |
| Southwest Airlines Co. | LUV | Airlines | $38.94 | $49.56 | 27% | 76% | -9% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Most of the companies on the S&P 500 list expected to soar in 2023 have seen large declines in 2022. But the company at the top of the list, EQT Corp.
EQT,
is an exception. The stock has risen 69% in 2022 and is expected to add another 62% over the next 12 months. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to double during 2023 (in part from its expected acquisition of THQ), after nearly a four-fold EPS increase in 2022.
Shares of Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
are expected to soar 50% over the next year, following a decline of 46% so far in 2022. If the shares were to rise 50% from here to the price target of $136.02, they would still be 18% below their closing price of 166.72 at the end of 2021.
Read: Here’s why Amazon is Citi’s top internet stock idea
You can see the earnings estimates and more for any stock in this article by clicking on its ticker.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The lists of favored stocks are limited to those covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.
Among components of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, there are 84 stocks with at least 75% “buy” ratings. Here at the 20 expected to rise the most over the next year:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ARWR | Biotechnology | $31.85 | $69.69 | 119% | 83% | -52% |
| Lantheus Holdings Inc. | LNTH | Medical Specialties | $54.92 | $102.00 | 86% | 100% | 90% |
| Progyny Inc. | PGNY | Misc. Commercial Services | $31.21 | $55.57 | 78% | 100% | -38% |
| Coherent Corp. | COHR | Electronic Equipment/ Instruments | $35.41 | $60.56 | 71% | 84% | -48% |
| Exelixis Inc. | EXEL | Biotechnology | $16.08 | $26.07 | 62% | 81% | -12% |
| Darling Ingredients Inc. | DAR | Food: Specialty/ Candy | $61.17 | $97.36 | 59% | 93% | -12% |
| Perrigo Co. PLC | PRGO | Pharmaceuticals | $31.83 | $49.25 | 55% | 100% | -18% |
| Mattel Inc. | MAT | Recreational Products | $17.39 | $26.58 | 53% | 87% | -19% |
| ACI Worldwide Inc. | ACIW | Software | $20.75 | $31.40 | 51% | 83% | -40% |
| Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. | MODG | Recreational Products | $21.99 | $32.91 | 50% | 83% | -20% |
| Dycom Industries Inc. | DY | Engineering and Construction | $86.03 | $128.13 | 49% | 100% | -8% |
| Travel + Leisure Co. | TNL | Hotels/ Resorts/ Cruiselines | $37.98 | $56.00 | 47% | 75% | -31% |
| Frontier Communications Parent Inc. | FYBR | Telecommunications | $25.21 | $36.18 | 44% | 82% | -15% |
| Manhattan Associates Inc. | MANH | Software | $120.06 | $171.80 | 43% | 88% | -23% |
| MP Materials Corp Class A | MP | Other Metals/ Minerals | $31.39 | $44.79 | 43% | 92% | -31% |
| Lumentum Holdings Inc. | LITE | Electrical Products | $54.45 | $76.44 | 40% | 76% | -49% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corp. | THC | Hospital/ Nursing Management | $44.22 | $62.00 | 40% | 80% | -46% |
| Repligen Corp. | RGEN | Pharmaceuticals | $166.88 | $233.10 | 40% | 82% | -37% |
| STAAR Surgical Co. | STAA | Medical Specialties | $59.57 | $82.67 | 39% | 82% | -35% |
| Carlisle Cos. Inc. | CSL | Building Products | $251.99 | $348.33 | 38% | 75% | 2% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Among companies in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, 91 are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts. Here are the 20 with the highest 12-month upside potential indicated by consensus price targets:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| UniQure NV | QURE | Biotechnology | $22.99 | $51.29 | 123% | 95% | 11% |
| Cara Therapeutics Inc. | CARA | Biotechnology | $11.34 | $23.63 | 108% | 88% | -7% |
| Vir Biotechnology Inc. | VIR | Biotechnology | $25.50 | $53.00 | 108% | 75% | -39% |
| Dynavax Technologies Corp. | DVAX | Biotechnology | $11.22 | $23.20 | 107% | 100% | -20% |
| Thryv Holdings Inc. | THRY | Advertising/ Marketing Services | $18.40 | $36.75 | 100% | 100% | -55% |
| Artivion Inc. | AORT | Medical Specialties | $12.93 | $23.13 | 79% | 83% | -36% |
| Cytokinetics Inc. | CYTK | Pharmaceuticals | $38.33 | $67.43 | 76% | 100% | -16% |
| Harsco Corp. | HSC | Environmental Services | $7.17 | $12.30 | 72% | 80% | -57% |
| Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. | LGND | Pharmaceuticals | $64.80 | $110.83 | 71% | 100% | -35% |
| Corcept Therapeutics Inc. | CORT | Pharmaceuticals | $20.84 | $34.20 | 64% | 80% | 5% |
| Payoneer Global Inc. | PAYO | Misc. Commercial Services | $5.70 | $9.33 | 64% | 100% | -22% |
| Xencor Inc. | XNCR | Biotechnology | $28.69 | $46.71 | 63% | 93% | -28% |
| Pacira Biosciences Inc. | PCRX | Pharmaceuticals | $45.50 | $72.90 | 60% | 80% | -24% |
| BioLife Solutions Inc. | BLFS | Chemicals | $19.72 | $31.38 | 59% | 89% | -47% |
| Customers Bancorp Inc. | CUBI | Regional Banks | $30.00 | $47.63 | 59% | 75% | -54% |
| ModivCare Inc. | MODV | Other Transportation | $92.22 | $145.83 | 58% | 100% | -38% |
| Stride Inc. | LRN | Consumer Services | $32.56 | $51.25 | 57% | 100% | -2% |
| Ranger Oil Corp. Class A | ROCC | Oil and Gas Production | $36.98 | $58.00 | 57% | 100% | 37% |
| Outfront Media Inc. | OUT | Real Estate Investment Trusts | $17.59 | $27.00 | 53% | 83% | -34% |
| Walker & Dunlop Inc. | WD | Finance/ Rental/ Leasing | $82.22 | $125.20 | 52% | 100% | -46% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Here are all 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ranked by how much analysts expect their prices to rise over the next year:
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Closing price – Dec. 12 | Consensus price target | Implied 12-month upside potential | Share “buy” ratings | Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12 |
| Salesforce Inc. | CRM | Software | $133.11 | $195.59 | 47% | 80% | -48% |
| Walt Disney Co. | DIS | Movies/ Entertainment | $94.66 | $119.60 | 26% | 82% | -39% |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | Telecommunications Equipment | $144.49 | $173.70 | 20% | 74% | -19% |
| Verizon Communications Inc. | VZ | Telecommunications | $37.95 | $44.60 | 18% | 21% | -27% |
| Visa Inc. Class A | V | Misc.s Commercial Services | $214.59 | $249.33 | 16% | 86% | -1% |
| Microsoft Corp. | MSFT | Software | $252.51 | $293.06 | 16% | 91% | -25% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Integrated Oil | $169.75 | $191.20 | 13% | 54% | 45% |
| Cisco Systems Inc. | CSCO | Information Technology Services | $49.30 | $53.76 | 9% | 44% | -22% |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc. | UNH | Managed Health Care | $545.86 | $593.30 | 9% | 85% | 9% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc. | GS | Investment Banks/ Brokers | $363.18 | $392.63 | 8% | 59% | -5% |
| Walmart Inc. | WMT | Specialty Stores | $148.02 | $159.86 | 8% | 72% | 2% |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. | JPM | Banks | $134.21 | $143.84 | 7% | 59% | -15% |
| Home Depot Inc. | HD | Home Improvement Chains | $327.98 | $346.61 | 6% | 61% | -21% |
| American Express Co. | AXP | Finance/ Rental/ Leasing | $157.31 | $164.57 | 5% | 43% | -4% |
| McDonald’s Corp. | MCD | Restaurants | $276.62 | $288.67 | 4% | 72% | 3% |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | Pharmaceuticals | $177.84 | $185.35 | 4% | 36% | 4% |
| Coca-Cola Co. | KO | Beverages: Non-Alcoholic | $63.97 | $66.62 | 4% | 73% | 8% |
| Boeing Co. | BA | Aerospace and Defense | $186.27 | $192.69 | 3% | 77% | -7% |
| Intel Corp. | INTC | Semiconductors | $28.69 | $29.54 | 3% | 13% | -44% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. | WBA | Drugstore Chains | $41.06 | $42.24 | 3% | 17% | -21% |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | MRK | Pharmaceuticals | $108.97 | $110.62 | 2% | 65% | 42% |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT | Trucks/ Construction/ Farm Machinery | $233.06 | $236.23 | 1% | 41% | 13% |
| Honeywell International Inc. | HON | Aerospace and Defense | $214.50 | $217.35 | 1% | 54% | 3% |
| Nike Inc. Class B | NKE | Apparel/ Footwear | $112.07 | $112.58 | 0% | 64% | -33% |
| 3M Co. | MMM | Industrial Conglomerates | $126.85 | $127.30 | 0% | 5% | -29% |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Household/ Personal Care | $152.47 | $150.22 | -1% | 59% | -7% |
| Travelers Companies Inc. | TRV | Multi-Line Insurance | $187.11 | $184.24 | -2% | 18% | 20% |
| Amgen Inc. | AMGN | Biotechnology | $276.78 | $264.79 | -4% | 24% | 23% |
| Dow Inc. | DOW | Chemicals | $51.11 | $48.73 | -5% | 15% | -10% |
| International Business Machines Corp. | IBM | Information Technology Services | $149.21 | $140.29 | -6% | 33% | 12% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Don’t miss: 10 Dividend Aristocrat stocks expected by analysts to rise up to 54% in 2023
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recorded their worst day in almost a month on Monday, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. services-sector reading fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be even more aggressive in its inflation battle.
Stocks finished mixed on Friday, although they clinched gains last week, following a robust November jobs report, which stoked fears that inflation might not be so easily defeated.
Strong wage growth numbers released Friday were followed up on Monday by a robust reading for the U.S. services sector — both of which helped to stoke fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, along with the central bank’s modest balance-sheet unwind, haven’t had much of an impact on the tight labor market.
The ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector came in stronger than expected, rising to 56.5% in November, a healthy showing that signals the U.S. economy is still expanding at a steady pace.
“If nothing else, the ISM services report is being interpreted as very strong, and thus the economy is overheating and that means more Fed tightening,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York. “Consumer resilience has proven to be more intense than I would have expected. In the two most interest-rate sensitive sectors — housing and autos — tightening has channeled into markets in meaningful ways.”
But there has been so much pent-up demand, that higher interest rates haven’t been cooling overall spending as much as the Fed would like because companies are still having to fill a backlog of orders, he said via phone.
In other economic data, the final November S&P Global U.S. services PMI edged up to 46.2 from 46.1, but remained in contractionary territory.
November jobs data released on Friday showed average hourly wages grew over the past year by more than 5% as of November, beating economists’ expectations and stoking concerns that robust wage growth would continue to fuel inflation, market strategists said.
Worries about a more-aggressive Fed also helped to drive Treasury yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year note rose 9.6 basis points to 3.6% on Monday. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and yields had fallen sharply over the past month, driven by shifting expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes.
Monday’s ISM services figure “surprised to the upside, suggesting that the economy is still running above its long-run sustainable path and that the Fed is going to have to slow the economy more than expected in 2023,” Bill Adams, the Dallas-based chief economist for Comerica Inc. CMA, said via phone.
In other markets news, signs that China’s government is easing its COVID restrictions helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
HSI,
finish with a 4.5% gain.
See also: Chinese ADRs and casino operators rally on signs of easing COVID
Meanwhile, oil futures ended lower on Monday, a day after Sunday’s decision by OPEC and its allies to keep production quotas unchanged.
Falling equity prices helped drive the CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
also known as the VIX, back above 20 on Monday. The volatility gauge had fallen sharply in recent weeks as stocks rallied, potentially signaling complacency that could ultimately hurt stocks, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients.
––Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article.
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United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock rallied after hours Tuesday after the airline said it expected the travel rebound to weather a shakier economy in the months ahead and reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.
“Looking forward through the end of the year, the airline expects the strong COVID recovery trends to continue to overcome the recessionary pressures in the macroeconomic environment,” company executives said in a statement.
That backdrop — along with tighter flight networks and changes in how people work — helped justify the airline’s more upbeat forecast for the fourth quarter. United Airlines
UAL,
said it expected adjusted fourth-quarter operating margin of around 10%, the first time the figure would end above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
United also forecast adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share of between $2.00 and $2.25, well above FactSet forecasts for 98 cents per share. The carrier also said it expected a 24% to 25% gain in total fourth-quarter unit revenue — a much-watched industry metric that measures sales as spread out across an airline’s flight capacity — when compared to the same period in 2019.
Adjusted fourth-quarter unit costs were seen up between 11% and 12%, and roughly 15% for the full year, when compared to the respective periods in 2019.
For the third quarter, United reported net income of $942 million, or $2.86 per share, compared with $473 million, or $1.44 per share, in the prior-year quarter.
On an adjusted basis, the company earned $2.81 per share, compared with a $1.02 per-share loss in the quarter a year ago and $4.07 in 2019. Revenue was $12.877 billion, compared with $7.75 billion a year ago and $11.38 billion in 2019.
Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings of $2.28 per share, on revenue of $12.743 billion.
Shares jumped 7% after the market’s close. American Airlines Group Inc.
AAL,
which reports earnings on Thursday, rose 3.6% after hours.
United, in its earnings release, also called out three demand trends that it said were “more than fully offsetting any economic headwinds.” It said that “Air travel is still in the COVID recovery phase, hybrid work gives customers the freedom and flexibility to travel for leisure more often, and external supply challenges will limit industry supply for years to come.”
The carrier said it expected total flight capacity, a measure of available seats on flights, to be down between 9% and 10% for the fourth quarter and down around 13% for the full year, when compared to 2019 levels.
United reported as analysts look for cracks in the travel industry’s rebound and holiday demand, after eager travelers this summer ran into flight delays and cancellations, insufficient staffing and severe weather. Airfares and fuel costs are more expensive — a function of strong demand and thinner supplies. Aircraft supply is tight, some executives have said. Airlines have also tried to bulk up flight crews, particularly pilots, after encouraging buyouts in 2020, as the pandemic left the industry without passengers and burning through cash.
Delta Air Lines Inc.
DAL,
last week said it expected fourth-quarter sales to grow from pre-pandemic levels, as demand for travel, after two years of pandemic-related restraint, holds up against rising prices.
“The travel recovery continues as consumer spend shifts to experiences and demand improves in corporate and international,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in its earnings release.
Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth, in a research note last week, said she expected United to see similar momentum, helped by corporate travel and international demand.
She said American and JetBlue Airways Corp.
JBLU,
should benefit to a lesser degree, “due to large corp and transatlantic exposure at the former and large coastal-city exposure at the latter.” JetBlue reports earnings on Oct. 25.
Delta’s international-unit revenue growth outpaced that in its domestic business for the first time since the pandemic started. Leisure travel to Europe helped propel results, as did strong demand for Delta’s premium-class seats. Bastian said he expected Delta’s flight network to be fully restored by summer next year.
“Demand has not come close to being quenched by a hectic summer travel season,” he said on Delta’s earnings call. “At the same time, industry supply is constrained by aircraft availability, regional pilot shortages and hiring and training needs.”
Delta rose 3% after the bell on Tuesday.
United Airlines stock is down 15% so far this year. By comparison, the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
is down 22% over that time.
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TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were mostly lower on Wednesday following another volatile day on Wall Street, as traders braced for updates on inflation and corporate earnings.
Benchmarks fell in Tokyo
NIY00,
Shanghai
SHCOMP,
and Hong Kong
HSI00,
but rose in Sydney.
South Korea’s Kospi
180721,
lost 0.1% to 2,189.86 after the Bank of Korea raised its key rate by 0.5 percentage point, amid the backdrop of Fed rate hikes in the U.S. and growing inflation risks from the weak won and rebounding global oil prices.
In currency trading the Japanese yen declined to a 24-year low against the U.S. dollar
JPYUSD,
at 146 yen-levels, raising expectations of another intervention by Tokyo to prop up the yen. By midday the dollar
USDJPY,
was at 146.17 yen, up from 145.80 late Tuesday. The euro
EURUSD,
cost 96.96 cents, inching down from 97.07 yen.
The weaker yen raises costs for both consumers and businesses who rely on imports of food, fuel and other needs, but the bigger purchasing power for foreign currencies is expected to boost tourism. Japan reopened fully to individual tourist travel this week after being closed for more than two years because of the pandemic.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 0.2% to 26,348.73 in morning trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
ASX10000,
gained nearly 0.2% to 6,656.00. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 2% to 16,491.39, while the Shanghai Composite shed 1.2% to 2,943.24.
On Tuesday, the S&P 500
SPX,
fell 0.7%, marking its fifth straight loss, closing at 3,588.84. The Nasdaq
COMP,
dropped 1.1% to 10,426.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
added 0.1% to 29,239.19, while the Russell 2000 index
RUT,
rose 1 point, or about 0.1%, to 1,692.92.
Recession fears have been weighing heavily on markets as stubbornly hot inflation burns businesses and consumers. Economic growth has been slowing as consumers temper spending and the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 to 2.7%, down from the 2.9% it had estimated in July. The cut comes as Europe faces a particularly high risk of a recession with energy costs soaring amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Wall Street is closely watching the Federal Reserve as it continues to aggressively raise its benchmark interest rate to make borrowing more expensive and slow economic growth. The goal is to cool inflation, but the strategy carries the risk of slowing the economy too much and pushing it into a recession.
“The market desperately wants a reason for the Fed to be able to stop tightening and the data recently hasn’t given them that opening with respect to inflation,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts.
Computer-chip manufacturers continued slipping in the wake of the U.S. government’s decision to tighten export controls on semiconductors and chip manufacturing equipment to China. Qualcomm
QCOM,
fell 4%.
Uber
UBER,
fell 10.4% and Lyft
LYFT,
slumped 12% following a proposal by the U.S. government that could give contract workers at ride-hailing and other gig economy companies full status as employees.
The Fed will release minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday, possibly giving Wall Street more insight into its views on inflation and next steps.
Investors still expect the Fed to raise its overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next month, the fourth such increase. That’s triple the usual amount, and would bring the rate up to a range of 3.75% to 4%. It started the year at virtually zero.
Rex Nutting: Leading indicators show inflation is slowing, but Fed policy makers are too busy looking in rearview mirror to notice
The government will also release its report on wholesale prices Wednesday, providing an update on how inflation is hitting businesses. The closely watched report on consumer prices will be released on Thursday, and a report on retail sales is due Friday.
“Everyone is still hoping that every inflation report will be the one that shows that pressure is alleviating,” Delwiche said.
Wall Street is also gearing up for the start of the latest corporate earnings reporting season, which could provide a clearer picture of inflation’s impact.
Among the companies reporting quarterly results this week: PepsiCo
PEP,
Delta Air Lines
DAL,
and Domino’s Pizza
DPZ,
Banks including Citigroup
C,
and JPMorgan Chase
JPM,
will also report results.
In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude
CL00,
lost 82 cents to $88.53 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S. crude-oil prices fell 2% Tuesday. Brent crude
BRN00,
the international pricing standard, fell 62 cents to $93.67 a barrel.
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When the stock market has jumped two days in a row, as it has now, it is easy to become complacent.
But the Federal Reserve isn’t finished raising interest rates, and recession talk abounds. Stock investors aren’t out of the woods yet. That can make dividend stocks attractive if the yields are high and the companies produce more cash flow than they need to cover the payouts.
Below is a list of 21 stocks drawn from the S&P Composite 1500 Index
SP1500,
that appear to fit the bill. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500
SPX,
the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
MID,
and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
SML,
The purpose of the list is to provide a starting point for further research. These stocks may be appropriate for you if you are looking for income, but you should do your own assessment to form your own opinion about a company’s ability to remain competitive over the next decade.
One way to measure a company’s ability to pay dividends is to look at its free cash flow yield. Free cash flow is remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This money can be used to pay for dividends, buy back shares (which can raise earnings and cash flow per share), or fund acquisitions, organic expansion or for other corporate purposes.
If we divide a company’s estimated annual free cash flow per share by its current share price, we have its estimated free cash flow yield. If we compare the free cash flow yield to the current dividend yield, we may see “headroom” for cash to be deployed in ways that can benefit shareholders.
For this screen, we began with the S&P Composite 1500, then narrowed the list as follows:
For real-estate investment trusts, dividend-paying ability is measured by funds from operations (FFO), a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) takes this a step further, subtracting cash expected to be used to maintain properties. So for the two REITs on the list, the FCF yield column makes use of AFFO.
For many companies in the financial sector, especially banks and insurers, free cash flow figures aren’t available, so the screen made use of earnings-per-share estimates. These are generally considered to run close to actual cash flow for these heavily regulated industries.
Here are the 21 companies that passed the screen, with dividend yields of at least 5% and estimated 2023 FCF yields at least twice the current payout. They are sorted by dividend yield:
| Company | Ticker | Type | Dividend yield | Estimated 2023 FCF yield | Estimated “headroom” |
| Uniti Group Inc. |
UNIT, |
Real-Estate Investment Trusts | 8.33% | 25.25% | 16.92% |
| Hanesbrands Inc. |
HBI, |
Apparel/ Footwear | 8.33% | 17.29% | 8.96% |
| Kohl’s Corp. |
KSS, |
Department Stores | 7.68% | 16.72% | 9.04% |
| Rent-A-Center Inc. |
RCII, |
Finance/ Rental/ Leasing | 7.52% | 17.26% | 9.73% |
| Macerich Co. |
MAC, |
Real-Estate Investment Trusts | 7.43% | 18.04% | 10.60% |
| Devon Energy Corp. |
DVN, |
Oil & Gas Production | 7.13% | 14.47% | 7.33% |
| AT&T Inc. |
T, |
Major Telecommunications | 6.98% | 14.82% | 7.84% |
| Newell Brands Inc. |
NWL, |
Industrial Conglomerates | 6.59% | 17.42% | 10.82% |
| Dow Inc. |
DOW, |
Chemicals | 6.18% | 15.63% | 9.45% |
| LyondellBasell Industries NV |
LYB, |
Chemicals | 6.09% | 16.07% | 9.99% |
| Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. Class A |
SMG, |
Chemicals | 6.04% | 12.68% | 6.65% |
| Diamondback Energy Inc. |
FANG, |
Oil & Gas Production | 5.56% | 13.63% | 8.08% |
| Best Buy Co. Inc. |
BBY, |
Electronics/ Appliance Stores | 5.53% | 14.08% | 8.55% |
| Viatris Inc. |
VTRS, |
Pharmaceuticals | 5.50% | 28.95% | 23.45% |
| Prudential Financial Inc. |
PRU, |
Life/ Health Insurance | 5.38% | 13.30% | 7.91% |
| Ford Motor Co. |
F, |
Motor Vehicles | 5.23% | 15.95% | 10.72% |
| Invesco Ltd. |
IVZ, |
Investment Managers | 5.23% | 14.95% | 9.73% |
| Franklin Resources Inc. |
BEN, |
Investment Managers | 5.17% | 13.21% | 8.04% |
| Kontoor Brands Inc. |
KTB, |
Apparel/ Footwear | 5.17% | 14.15% | 8.98% |
| Seagate Technology Holdings PLC |
STX, |
Computer Peripherals | 5.11% | 13.19% | 8.07% |
| Foot Locker Inc. |
FL, |
Apparel/ Footwear Retail | 5.03% | 15.52% | 10.49% |
| Source: FactSet | |||||
Any stock screen has its limitations. If you are interested in stocks listed here, it is best to do your own research, and it is easy to get started by clicking the tickers in the table for more information about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
For the “estimated FCF yields,” consensus free cash flow estimates for calendar 2023 were used for all companies except the following:
Don’t miss: Dividend yields on preferred stocks have soared. This is how to pick the best ones for your portfolio.
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Press Release
–
updated: Nov 16, 2020
MILAN, N.Y., November 16, 2020 (Newswire.com)
–
The Sackett and Van Dam Guest Cottage at Little 9 Farm, recently featured in Hudson Valley Happenings and selected by Travel & Leisure Magazine Online as one of “The 10 Best Remote Airbnbs for an Escape From Reality,“ is gearing up for a busy winter season.
Besides the sprawling, 119 acre property’s usual charm, the colder months bring myriad activities for those who don’t mind a little nip in the air. With private hiking trails through rolling meadows and pristine forests, guests can experience being lost in nature without even leaving the grounds. When snow is in the forecast, sledding, snow-shoeing and even cross country skiing are all just steps from the Cottage door. For those longing for the slopes, Little 9 Farm is within an hour’s drive of half a dozen of the Northeast’s best ski mountains.
When relaxation is on the agenda, The Sackett and Van Dam Guest Cottage’s outdoor fire pit and indoor gas fireplace provide a cozy respite, whether you prefer outside or in. And, as always, guests are provided with farm fresh eggs daily from the working farm’s hens in residence.
“Many people think of the Hudson Valley as only a summer or fall getaway, but the winter is arguably the best season of all here,” said Matt Trust, co-owner of the property. “Whether you like to bundle up and sit by the fire, or have an active winter vacation, this is the place.”
Little 9 Farm’s history dates back to the Royal Patent of 1706 that gives rise to its name. Over 300 years later, it maintains its colonial charm, at the same time reflecting the sophisticated sensibilities of its four owners, who have lovingly restored the property after acquiring it in 2019. Under two hours by car from the New York metro area, Little 9 Farm allows guest to experience “farmhouse luxury” in historic Dutchess County. For more information, or to book a winter getaway, visit the Little 9 Farm website here.
Source: MMSD Partners LLC
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