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Tag: Recessions and depressions

  • Asia stocks follow Wall St down after US recession warning

    Asia stocks follow Wall St down after US recession warning

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    BEIJING — Asian stock markets declined Thursday after the Federal Reserve said its economists expect a “mild recession” this year.

    Shanghai, Hong Kong, Seoul and Sydney retreated. Tokyo advanced. Oil prices fell.

    Wall Street closed lower Wednesday after notes from the central bank’s latest meeting said its economists expect lower bank lending to cause a “mild recession.” Traders already saw an increasing likelihood of at least a brief U.S. recession this year following interest rate hikes to cool inflation. Government data showed consumer prices rose 5% in March, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

    “It seems to be brewing recession fears that shook risk sentiments,” said Yeap Jun Rong of IG in a report. The Fed report “erodes chatters of a soft landing scenario.”

    The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.4% to 3,312.79 while the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo added 0.2% to 28,140.27. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong retreated 0.7% to 20,160.84.

    The Kospi in Seoul gave up 0.1% to 2,548.61 while Sydney’s S&P ASX fell 0.4% to 7,313.90.

    India’s Sensex opened down 0.4% at 60,149.89. New Zealand and Singapore advanced while Jakarta declined.

    Traders have been worried the Fed and other central banks in Europe and Asia might tip the global economy into recession as they try to extinguish inflation that is near multi-decade highs.

    That anxiety was briefly drowned out by fears about the health of global banks following two high-profile failures in the United States and one in Switzerland. But regulators appear to have quelled those concerns by promising more lending and other steps if needed to stabilize banks.

    On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 16.99, or 0.4%, to 4,091.95. About 65% of stocks within the index fell.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 38.29, or 0.1%, to 33,646.50. The Nasdaq composite lost 102.54, or 0.9%, to 11,929.34.

    Traders are still largely betting the Fed will raise short-term interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting, according to data from CME Group. They shaded some bets toward the possibility that the Fed will merely hold rates steady in May, something it has not done for more than a year.

    Traders have built bets the Fed will have to cut interest rates later this year in order to prop up the economy.

    The bond market shows nervousness about a potential recession. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 3.41% from 3.43% late Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, fell to 3.96% from 4.03%.

    Investors are looking ahead to the latest quarterly profit reports U.S. companies are due to start releasing this week.

    Expectations are low. Analysts forecast the worst drop in S&P 500 earnings per share since the pandemic was crushing the economy in 2020. But many also expect this to mark the bottom and call for a return to growth later this year.

    In energy markets, benchmark U.S. crude lost 32 cents to $82.94 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.73 on Wednesday to $83.26. Brent crude, the price basis for international oil trading, shed 40 cents to $86.93 per barrel in London. It advanced $1.72 the previous session to $87.33.

    The dollar gained to 133.35 yen from Wednesday’s 133.19 yen. The dollar declined to $1.0986 from $1.0995.

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  • Asian shares higher after report shows resilience in US jobs

    Asian shares higher after report shows resilience in US jobs

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    Shares were mostly higher in Asia on Monday after a report Friday showed resilience in the U.S. jobs market. European markets were closed for Easter holidays.

    Benchmarks rose in Tokyo and Seoul but fell in Shanghai. Markets were closed in Hong Kong and Sydney. U.S. futures were mixed and oil prices climbed.

    The highly anticipated report on U.S. employment showed hiring slowed more than expected but remained steady last month.

    Friday’s jobs report showed that American employers added 236,000 jobs last month, a slowdown from February’s 326,000 and slightly below economists’ expectations. Wages, meanwhile, grew 0.3% from February to match expectations. But year-over-year wage gains slowed to 4.2% from 4.6%.

    Asian central banks are also struggling to steer the delicate course of curbing inflation while avoiding putting economies into recession.

    In Asian trading Monday, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index added 0.4% to 27,633.66. In Seoul, the Kospi surged 0.9% to 2,512.08

    The Shanghai Composite index gave up early gains, losing 0.4% to 3,315.36. Shares rose in Taiwan but fell in Southeast Asia.

    The Federal Reserve faces a tough decision over whether to raise interest rates to drive down inflation that’s still high or hold off given signs of a slowing economy.

    “I suspect we are entering the peak uncertainty phase around the Fed’s next move as investors debate if credit tightening from financial stress will be enough to warrant cuts or if we are heading for more hikes,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

    The U.S. stock market was closed in observance of Good Friday, as were many markets across Europe. That left the U.S. bond market as one of the few open to react to the latest jobs update.

    The immediate reaction from the bond market seemed to lean toward another hike. Not only did yields rise for Treasurys, so did bets for the Fed to raise rates by another quarter of a percentage point in May at its next meeting.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 3.40% from 3.30% late Thursday. It was at 3.36% early Monday.

    Raising rates is one of the Fed’s most effective ways to undercut inflation, but it’s a notoriously blunt tool that works only by slowing the entire economy. That raises the risk of a recession and hurts prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.

    More data are coming this week, with the latest monthly update on prices consumers are paying on Wednesday. Economists expect it to show inflation slowing but well above the Fed’s target.

    Many economists see a recession later this year as likely. But some say a narrow possibility still exists where the Fed could raise rates just enough to get inflation fully under control without causing a severe recession.

    In other trading, U.S. benchmark crude gained 20 cents to $80.90 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 13 cents to $85.25 per barrel.

    The dollar fell to 132.10 Japanese yen from 132.16 yen. The euro rose to $1.0911 from $1.0902.

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  • Asian shares higher after report shows resilience in US jobs

    Asian shares higher after report shows resilience in US jobs

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    Shares were mostly higher in Asia on Monday after a report Friday showed resilience in the U.S. jobs market.

    Benchmarks rose in Tokyo and Seoul but fell in Shanghai. Markets were closed in Hong Kong and Sydney after last week ended with Good Friday holidays in many countries. U.S. futures and oil prices advanced.

    The highly anticipated report on U.S. employment showed hiring slowed more than expected but remained steady last month.

    Friday’s jobs report showed that American employers added 236,000 jobs last month, a slowdown from February’s 326,000 and slightly below economists’ expectations. Wages, meanwhile, grew 0.3% from February to match expectations. But year-over-year wage gains slowed to 4.2% from 4.6%.

    Asian central banks are also struggling to steer the delicate course of curbing inflation while avoiding putting economies into recession.

    In Asian trading Monday, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index added 0.4% to 27633.98. In Seoul, the Kospi surged 1% to 2,515.49.

    The Shanghai Composite index gave up early gains, losing 0.1% to 3,326.17. Shares rose in Taiwan but fell in Southeast Asia.

    The Federal Reserve faces a tough decision over whether to raise interest rates to drive down inflation that’s still high or hold off given signs of a slowing economy.

    “”I suspect we are entering the peak uncertainty phase around the Fed’s next move as investors debate if credit tightening from financial stress will be enough to warrant cuts or if we are heading for more hikes,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

    The U.S. stock market was closed in observance of Good Friday, as were many markets across Europe. That left the U.S. bond market as one of the few open to react to the latest jobs update.

    The immediate reaction from the bond market seemed to lean toward another hike. Not only did yields rise for Treasurys, so did bets for the Fed to raise rates by another quarter of a percentage point in May at its next meeting.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 3.40% from 3.30% late Thursday. It was at 3.37% early Monday.

    A cooler job market is exactly what the Fed is trying to achieve. Raising rates is one of the Fed’s most effective ways to undercut inflation, but it’s a notoriously blunt tool that works only by slowing the entire economy. That raises the risk of a recession and hurts prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.

    More data are coming this week, with the latest monthly update on prices consumers are paying on Wednesday. Economists expect it to show inflation slowing but well above the Fed’s target.

    Many economists see a recession later this year as likely. But some say a narrow possibility still exists where the Fed could raise rates just enough to get inflation fully under control without causing a severe recession.

    In other trading, U.S. benchmark crude picked up 7 cents to $80.77 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, edged 1 cent higher to $85.13 per barrel.

    The dollar rose to 132.57 Japanese yen from 132.16 yen. The euro was unchanged at $1.0902.

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  • Major trading platform CEO sees signs of a bond ETF revival

    Major trading platform CEO sees signs of a bond ETF revival

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    Demand for bond ETFs appears to be rising.

    According to MarketAxess CEO Chris Concannon, there are signs Treasury ETFs are on the cusp of substantial inflows.

    “We’re about to see what I’d call [a] bond renaissance,” the electronic-trading platform CEO told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “The Fed is still taking action, so I would expect bond yields overall to remain relatively high and attractive.”

    In late March, the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point — its ninth hike since March 2022. Next Wednesday, Wall Street will get the Fed minutes from the last policy meeting and more clarity on what may come next.

    VettaFi vice chairman Tom Lydon sees a similar pattern.  

    “They’re starting to move back not just into Treasurys, but into corporates and high yields with the idea that we may be able to lock in longer duration and longer payment for those higher rates, [and] with the idea that we’re not going to see higher rates a year from now,” he said.

    VettaFi’s latest data finds international and U.S. fixed income exchange-traded funds saw about $45 billion in inflows since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, it found corporate bond ETFs saw $6 billion in outflows in the first quarter

    Lydon speculates the renewed interest is caused by investors losing faith in traditional 60/40 investment portfolios.

    “We’ve seen a lot of advisors take a little bit off the table, both in the equity side and the fixed income side,” he said. “So, safety is key until we start to see confidence that the Fed really has some handle on inflation and [there’s] stability in the marketplace.”

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  • Yields, expectations for rate hikes rise after jobs report

    Yields, expectations for rate hikes rise after jobs report

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    NEW YORK — Yields are rising in the U.S. bond market Friday following a highly anticipated report on the U.S. job market.

    The U.S. stock market is closed in observance of Good Friday, as are many markets across Europe. That leaves the U.S. bond market as one of the few open to react to the latest jobs update, which showed hiring lost a bit more momentum than expected last month but largely remained resilient.

    The data was so anticipated because it could offer a big clue for the Federal Reserve, which faces a tough decision on interest rates that will affect the entire economy. Should it keep raising rates in order to drive down inflation that’s still high? Or should it hold off given all the signs of slowing across the economy and stress in the banking system that’s already been caused by the past year’s swift surge in rates?

    The immediate reaction from the bond market Friday morning seemed to lean toward another hike. Not only did yields rise for Treasurys, so did bets for the Fed to raise rates by another quarter of a percentage point in May at its next meeting.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 3.36% from 3.30% late Thursday, as of 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. The two-year yield, which tends to move more on expectations for the Fed, rose to 3.94% from 3.83%.

    Friday’s jobs report showed that employers added 236,000 jobs last month, a slowdown from February’s 326,000 and slightly below economists’ expectations. Wages, meanwhile, grew 0.3% from February to match expectations. But year-over-year wage gains slowed to 4.2% from 4.6%.

    A cooler job market is exactly what the Fed has been hoping for. Raising rates is one of the Fed’s most effective tools to undercut inflation, but it’s a notoriously blunt one that works only by slowing the entire economy. That raises the risk of a recession and hurts prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.

    “The labor market is getting winded,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments. “Payroll gains are still high, but the aggregate hours worked have fallen two months in a row. The payroll gains are not as broad-based as they used to be and hours are getting cut.”

    Jacobsen said he doesn’t see reason for the Fed to hike rates based on the jobs report alone, and he said next week’s update on inflation may be more important.

    Friday’s jobs report follows a string of reports on the economy this week that showed flagging momentum. A measure of health for the U.S. manufacturing industry contracted by its worst level since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was wrecking the global economy. A separate measure of the U.S. services industries was weaker than expected, while employers posted fewer job openings across the country.

    Many economists see a recession later this year or next as the most likely outcome. But some economists say a narrow possibility still exists where the Fed could raise rates just enough to get inflation fully under control without causing a severe recession.

    Also complicating things for the Fed is the belief in the bond market that the central bank will have to cut interest rates later this year in order to prop up the economy.

    Such cuts can act like steroids for financial markets and relax conditions for the economy, but they also can give inflation more oxygen. The Fed has so far consistently said it sees no rates cuts this year because it doesn’t want to let off the fight against inflation too early.

    “Below-trend job growth and a modest rise in the unemployment rate is what the Fed is aiming for, but the weakening labor market supports the recession narrative and reinforce markets expectations of rate cuts,” said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco.

    Before the release of the U.S. jobs report, stocks rose across much of Asia.

    Stocks in Shanghai gained 0.4%, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.2% and the Kospi in Seoul rose 1.3%. Bangkok, Taiwan and Malaysia also gained.

    ___ AP Business Writer Joe McDonald contributed.

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  • Asian shares mostly fall amid worries about slowing economy

    Asian shares mostly fall amid worries about slowing economy

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    TOKYO — Asian shares were trading mostly lower Thursday as investors turned their attention to upcoming earnings reports and other economic indicators.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 shed 1.3% in afternoon trading to 27,439.88. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.4% to 7,208.10. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.4% to 2,461.12. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.4% to 20,204.33. The Shanghai Composite slipped less than 0.1% to 3,311.55.

    While efforts to cool inflation by raising interest rates are designed to slow overheated economies, the worry is that central bank policymakers might overdo it, leading to recession.

    Many regional economies are seeing weakness in exports due to softer demand in major markets like the United States. That has dulled the impact of a rebound in China as its economy recovers from pandemic-related disruptions.

    Stocks on Wall Street mostly slipped Wednesday following the latest signals that the U.S. economy is slowing under the weight of much higher interest rates.

    “Wall Street is realizing that you need a strong economy to keep stocks heading higher,” Edward Moya of Oanda said in a commentary. “The US economy is clearly in slowdown mode and expectations should be for further labor market weakness.”

    The S&P 500 dipped 0.2% to 4,090.38 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 33,482.72. But the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.1% to 11,996.86.

    One report from the Institute for Supply Management said that growth in the U.S. services sector slowed last month by more than economists expected, as the pace of new orders cooled. A separate report suggested private employers added 145,000 jobs in March, down sharply from February’s 261,000. Perhaps more importantly for markets, pay raises also weakened for workers, according to the ADP Research Institute.

    ADP’s private payroll report could offer a preview of what Friday’s more comprehensive jobs report from the U.S. government will show. Economists expect it to say employers added 240,000 jobs last month, down from 311,000 in February.

    If the job market really is slowing from the strong growth that’s helped to prop up the larger economy recently, it could offer the Fed reason to pause on its hikes to interest rates.

    That’s a big deal for markets not only because it could lessen the odds of an upcoming recession, which some economists already see as a high probability. Higher rates also drag on prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.

    Other reports on the economy this week also came in weaker than expected, including readings on the number of job openings across the country and the health of the manufacturing sector.

    The reports have traders increasing bets for the Fed to hold rates steady at its next meeting in May, which would be the first time that’s happened in more than a year. Many traders are also betting the Fed will have to cut rates later this year, something that can act like steroids for markets.

    The Fed, though, has consistently said it doesn’t expect to cut rates this year.

    On the winning side Wednesday was Johnson & Johnson, which rose 4.5% after it proposed to pay nearly $9 billion to cover allegations that its baby powder containing talc caused cancer. It was one of the biggest drivers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain for Wednesday.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.30% from 3.34% late Tuesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other loans. The two-year yield, which tends to move more on expectations for the Fed, slipped to 3.80% from 3.82%.

    Gold held relatively steady and dipped $2.60 to settle at $2,035.60 per ounce. It’s up more than 11% amid worries about the strength of the global banking system.

    In other trading, benchmark U.S. crude fell 58 cents to $80.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost 10 cents to $80.61 on Wednesday. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 56 cents to $84.43 a barrel.

    The U.S. dollar inched down to 131.24 Japanese yen from 131.30 yen. The euro cost $1.0896, down from $1.0908.

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  • Asian shares mostly fall amid worries about slowing economy

    Asian shares mostly fall amid worries about slowing economy

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    TOKYO — Asian shares were trading mostly lower Thursday as investors turned their attention to upcoming earnings reports and other economic indicators.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 shed 1.3% in afternoon trading to 27,439.88. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.4% to 7,208.10. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.4% to 2,461.12. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.4% to 20,204.33. The Shanghai Composite slipped less than 0.1% to 3,311.55.

    While efforts to cool inflation by raising interest rates are designed to slow overheated economies, the worry is that central bank policymakers might overdo it, leading to recession.

    Many regional economies are seeing weakness in exports due to softer demand in major markets like the United States. That has dulled the impact of a rebound in China as its economy recovers from pandemic-related disruptions.

    Stocks on Wall Street mostly slipped Wednesday following the latest signals that the U.S. economy is slowing under the weight of much higher interest rates.

    “Wall Street is realizing that you need a strong economy to keep stocks heading higher,” Edward Moya of Oanda said in a commentary. “The US economy is clearly in slowdown mode and expectations should be for further labor market weakness.”

    The S&P 500 dipped 0.2% to 4,090.38 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 33,482.72. But the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.1% to 11,996.86.

    One report from the Institute for Supply Management said that growth in the U.S. services sector slowed last month by more than economists expected, as the pace of new orders cooled. A separate report suggested private employers added 145,000 jobs in March, down sharply from February’s 261,000. Perhaps more importantly for markets, pay raises also weakened for workers, according to the ADP Research Institute.

    ADP’s private payroll report could offer a preview of what Friday’s more comprehensive jobs report from the U.S. government will show. Economists expect it to say employers added 240,000 jobs last month, down from 311,000 in February.

    If the job market really is slowing from the strong growth that’s helped to prop up the larger economy recently, it could offer the Fed reason to pause on its hikes to interest rates.

    That’s a big deal for markets not only because it could lessen the odds of an upcoming recession, which some economists already see as a high probability. Higher rates also drag on prices for stocks, bonds and other investments.

    Other reports on the economy this week also came in weaker than expected, including readings on the number of job openings across the country and the health of the manufacturing sector.

    The reports have traders increasing bets for the Fed to hold rates steady at its next meeting in May, which would be the first time that’s happened in more than a year. Many traders are also betting the Fed will have to cut rates later this year, something that can act like steroids for markets.

    The Fed, though, has consistently said it doesn’t expect to cut rates this year.

    On the winning side Wednesday was Johnson & Johnson, which rose 4.5% after it proposed to pay nearly $9 billion to cover allegations that its baby powder containing talc caused cancer. It was one of the biggest drivers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain for Wednesday.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.30% from 3.34% late Tuesday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other loans. The two-year yield, which tends to move more on expectations for the Fed, slipped to 3.80% from 3.82%.

    Gold held relatively steady and dipped $2.60 to settle at $2,035.60 per ounce. It’s up more than 11% amid worries about the strength of the global banking system.

    In other trading, benchmark U.S. crude fell 58 cents to $80.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost 10 cents to $80.61 on Wednesday. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 56 cents to $84.43 a barrel.

    The U.S. dollar inched down to 131.24 Japanese yen from 131.30 yen. The euro cost $1.0896, down from $1.0908.

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  • Asian shares mixed after Wall St dips on weak economic data

    Asian shares mixed after Wall St dips on weak economic data

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    TOKYO — Asian shares were trading mixed Wednesday following a decline on Wall Street after reports on the U.S. economy came in weaker than expected.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.7% in afternoon trading to 27,808.75. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 stood little changed, inching down less than 0.1% to 7,232.60. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.5% to 2,493.83. Trading was closed in Hong Kong and Shanghai for the Qingming Festival, a holiday.

    New Zealand’s benchmark fell 0.3% after the central bank surprised economists by imposing an aggressive half-point rate rise to bring its policy interest rate to 5.25%. It was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 11th straight rate hike as it tries to cool inflation, which is running at 7.2%, far above the bank’s target level of around 2%.

    Central banks have diverged somewhat in adjusting interest rates to reflect the latest trends in their economies. On Tuesday, Australia’s central bank kept its rate at 3.6%, citing a need for time to assess where the economy is headed as inflation moderates.

    On Wall Street, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6% to 4,100.60, breaking a four-day winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, to 33,402.38. The Nasdaq composite sank 0.5% to 12,126.33.

    Investors are still split on whether the U.S. economy will fall into a recession and how badly corporate profits might drop. The biggest question remains what the Federal Reserve will do next with interest rates after hiking them furiously over the last year to get high inflation under control.

    The reports on job openings and factory orders released Tuesday may have heightened recession fears. But they may also give the Fed reason to hold rates steady at its next meeting, for the first time in more than a year, offering a possible upside for markets.

    One report showed employers advertised 9.9 million job openings in February, a sharper fall-off than economists expected. The Fed has been paying close attention to the numbers because the job market has remained so strong despite higher rates. The hope is that a softening in the number of openings could take some pressure off inflation without having to throw many people out of work.

    A separate report showed that factory orders weakened in February more than economists expected.

    A potentially more impactful report will arrive with Friday’s update on how many jobs were created across the country last month.

    Traders flipped bets back toward the Fed holding steady on rates at its meeting next month. A day earlier, a slight majority was betting on another increase in rates. That helped yields in the bond market to fall.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.34% from 3.42% late Monday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans. The two-year Treasury, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, dropped to 3.82% from 3.97%.

    Longer term, there seems to be more confidence on Wall Street that the Fed will have to cut rates later this year.

    Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected readings on the economy follow a report on Monday that showed U.S. manufacturing continues to shrink faster than economists forecast.

    On Wall Street, shares of Virgin Orbit plunged 23.2% to 15 cents after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It’s been contending with the fallout of a failed mission this year and increasing difficulty in raising funding for future missions.

    Stocks in industries whose profits are closely tied to the strength of the economy also fell more than the rest of the market, such as industrial and energy companies. Valero Energy fell 8% for one of the biggest losses in the S&P 500.

    In other trading Wednesday, benchmark U.S. crude gained 33 cents to $81.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose 29 cents to $80.71 per barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 40 cents to $85.34 per barrel in London.

    The U.S. dollar slipped to 131.52 Japanese yen from 131.71 yen. The euro cost $1.0954, up from $1.0951.

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  • Asian shares mixed after Wall St dips on weak economic data

    Asian shares mixed after Wall St dips on weak economic data

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    TOKYO — Asian shares were trading mixed Wednesday following a decline on Wall Street after reports on the U.S. economy came in weaker than expected.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.7% in afternoon trading to 27,808.75. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 stood little changed, inching down less than 0.1% to 7,232.60. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.5% to 2,493.83. Trading was closed in Hong Kong and Shanghai for the Qingming Festival, a holiday.

    New Zealand’s benchmark fell 0.3% after the central bank surprised economists by imposing an aggressive half-point rate rise to bring its policy interest rate to 5.25%. It was the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 11th straight rate hike as it tries to cool inflation, which is running at 7.2%, far above the bank’s target level of around 2%.

    Central banks have diverged somewhat in adjusting interest rates to reflect the latest trends in their economies. On Tuesday, Australia’s central bank kept its rate at 3.6%, citing a need for time to assess where the economy is headed as inflation moderates.

    On Wall Street, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6% to 4,100.60, breaking a four-day winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, to 33,402.38. The Nasdaq composite sank 0.5% to 12,126.33.

    Investors are still split on whether the U.S. economy will fall into a recession and how badly corporate profits might drop. The biggest question remains what the Federal Reserve will do next with interest rates after hiking them furiously over the last year to get high inflation under control.

    The reports on job openings and factory orders released Tuesday may have heightened recession fears. But they may also give the Fed reason to hold rates steady at its next meeting, for the first time in more than a year, offering a possible upside for markets.

    One report showed employers advertised 9.9 million job openings in February, a sharper fall-off than economists expected. The Fed has been paying close attention to the numbers because the job market has remained so strong despite higher rates. The hope is that a softening in the number of openings could take some pressure off inflation without having to throw many people out of work.

    A separate report showed that factory orders weakened in February more than economists expected.

    A potentially more impactful report will arrive with Friday’s update on how many jobs were created across the country last month.

    Traders flipped bets back toward the Fed holding steady on rates at its meeting next month. A day earlier, a slight majority was betting on another increase in rates. That helped yields in the bond market to fall.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 3.34% from 3.42% late Monday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans. The two-year Treasury, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, dropped to 3.82% from 3.97%.

    Longer term, there seems to be more confidence on Wall Street that the Fed will have to cut rates later this year.

    Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected readings on the economy follow a report on Monday that showed U.S. manufacturing continues to shrink faster than economists forecast.

    On Wall Street, shares of Virgin Orbit plunged 23.2% to 15 cents after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It’s been contending with the fallout of a failed mission this year and increasing difficulty in raising funding for future missions.

    Stocks in industries whose profits are closely tied to the strength of the economy also fell more than the rest of the market, such as industrial and energy companies. Valero Energy fell 8% for one of the biggest losses in the S&P 500.

    In other trading Wednesday, benchmark U.S. crude gained 33 cents to $81.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose 29 cents to $80.71 per barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 40 cents to $85.34 per barrel in London.

    The U.S. dollar slipped to 131.52 Japanese yen from 131.71 yen. The euro cost $1.0954, up from $1.0951.

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  • Credit Suisse chief admits failure, anger to shareholders

    Credit Suisse chief admits failure, anger to shareholders

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    ZURICH — The chairman of Credit Suisse apologized Tuesday to shareholders for failures of the once-venerable bank and acknowledged the shock and anger felt as the troubled Swiss lender is set to be swallowed up by rival UBS in a government-arranged takeover.

    Axel Lehmann, who took the top board job only last year after joining Credit Suisse from UBS in 2021, decried the “massive outflows” of customer funds in October and a “downward spiral” that culminated last month as turmoil from a U.S. banking crisis spilled overseas.

    “The bank could not be saved,” he said, and only two options awaited — a deal or bankruptcy.

    “The bitterness, anger and shock of those who are disappointed, overwhelmed and affected by the developments of the past few weeks is palpable,” Lehmann told what is likely the last Credit Suisse shareholder meeting in its 167-year history.

    “I apologize that we were no longer able to stem the loss of trust that had accumulated over the years and for disappointing you,” he said.

    Protesters, including some hoisting a boat labeled “Crisis Suisse,” gathered outside a Zurich hockey arena hosting the meeting and some shareholders voiced their anger as they got their last crack at managers following a collapse of the bank’s stock price over the last decade and an impending merger engineered to sidestep investor approval.

    In 2007, Credit Suisse shares fetched as much nearly 88 Swiss francs (dollars). Today, they’re trading at about 80 cents.

    As the stock skid worsened and jittery depositors pulled their money, Swiss government officials hastily orchestrated a $3.25 billion takeover by UBS two weekends ago. Political leaders, financial regulators and the central bank feared a teetering Credit Suisse could further roil global financial markets following the collapse of two U.S. banks.

    Crosstown competitor UBS has been known for a more conservative culture after surviving the 2008 financial crisis, thanks in part to a government bailout. Executives hope that the deal will close in coming months but acknowledged a complex transaction.

    Some shareholders, who did not receive a vote on the takeover after the government passed an emergency ordinance to bypass the step, came to hear managers explain what went wrong.

    “The whole thing — how this happened — makes me a little bit angry,” said shareholder Markus Huber, 56, as he lined up to attend his first Credit Suisse annual meeting.

    Huber, who is self-employed in handyman services, suspected government officials and bank leaders cooked up the deal “in secrecy” and said there should have been greater transparency.

    Shareholders felt “a little bit astonished that there hadn’t been warnings out before,” he said.

    The takeover, however, isn’t on the docket for the annual general meeting, the first held in person in four years because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pared-down agenda includes discussion on issues like a dividend of about 5 cents per share, the reelection of the board under Lehmann and granting a form of approval to managers for most of their actions running the bank.

    Credit Suisse swooned from scandal to scandal in recent years: Bad bets on hedge funds; accusations of violating a U.S. plea deal by failing to report secret offshore accounts held by wealthy Americans to avoid paying taxes; failing to do enough to prevent money laundering by a Bulgarian cocaine ring.

    The Swiss federal prosecutor’s office on Monday announced it has opened a probe into events surrounding Credit Suisse ahead of the UBS takeover.

    A couple dozen activists, including one wearing a mask of the head of the Swiss central bank, took parting shots at Credit Suisse: Some held signs decrying the bank’s ties to Mozambique, where the bank was found to have violated anti-money-laundering rules and paid nearly $700 million in settlements to British and U.S. authorities.

    Environmentalists, meanwhile, lashed out at Credit Suisse’s investments in oil and natural gas — a longstanding complaint. Six years ago, about a dozen activists led a peaceful protest by donning tennis outfits and whacking balls in a bank branch near Lausanne, riffing off Roger Federer’s role as a bank pitchman.

    For Credit Suisse investors, the takeover deal has meant losses. Shareholders collectively will get 3 billion francs in the combined company, while investors holding about 16 billion francs ($17.3 billion) in higher-risk Credit Suisse bonds were wiped out.

    Typically, shareholders face losses before those holding bonds if a bank goes under. Swiss regulators have defended the move, saying contracts for the higher-risk bonds show that they can be written down in a “viability event,” particularly if the government offers extraordinary support.

    That happened under the Swiss executive branch’s emergency measures, regulators say.

    Global law firm Quinn Emanuel said Monday that bondholders have hired the firm to “represent them in discussions with Swiss authorities and possible litigation to recover losses” following the merger announcement.

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  • Here’s how banks fail

    Here’s how banks fail

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    The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse is a harsh reminder of how quickly a trusted institution could fail, putting billions of dollars at risk. Over 550 banks have failed since 2001, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. So what exactly causes a bank to fail? And what are the broader implications on the U.S. economy?

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  • ‘SVB’s failure could and should have been prevented’: Experts argue for better regulation and supervision by the Fed

    ‘SVB’s failure could and should have been prevented’: Experts argue for better regulation and supervision by the Fed

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    Like any other trusted institutions, banks are capable of failing. Over 550 banks have collapsed since 2001, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

    Nonetheless, the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse was a harsh reminder of how quickly a trusted institution could fail, putting billions of dollars at risk.

    But experts say these financial disasters could have been prevented.

    “Silicon Valley Bank’s failure could and should have been prevented by better regulation and supervision by the Federal Reserve,” said Aaron Klein, a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution. “The Federal Reserve needed to be the one saying, ‘Wait a second, you have some serious interest rate risk that you need to hedge against.’ And they failed [to do that].”

    Experts say the focus should be on ensuring that the rules are being enforced.

    “As recently as 2019 and more recently even, there were warnings that things needed to be changed here, that they’re taking on additional interest rate risk, and that they’re going to have some potential liquidity problems in the event that interest rates begin to rise,” said William T. Chittenden, an associate professor of finance and economics at Texas State University.

    The collapse of SVB also revealed the danger of deregulation. Several politicians and researchers have pointed to the rollback of Dodd-Frank regulations by the Trump administration as one of the main reasons for the bank’s failure.

    “What happened in Dodd-Frank was they said that all banks over $50 billion would be subject to enhanced prudential standards,” explained Klein. “The rollback said nobody’s subject to that between $50 billion and $100 billion, and between $100 billion and $250 billion, it is optional.”

    “SVB happened to fall in that category of between $50 billion and $250 billion so when they raised that, they weren’t subject to this great scrutiny,” said Chittenden.

    Watch the video to find out more about why banks fail in the U.S.

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  • Spiraling housing prices spark worry about Hawaii’s future

    Spiraling housing prices spark worry about Hawaii’s future

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    WAIANAE, Hawaii — Tedorian Gallano would like to buy a house for his wife and three youngest children in Hawaii, but real estate prices soared so high eight years ago he moved his family back to his childhood home outside Honolulu — and last year, his older brother followed suit.

    Now, eight members from three generations of Gallano’s extended family share one bathroom in a house that’s so packed they’ve jerry-rigged an extra bedroom in the garage. Buying a home is “pretty much unattainable for the average working family” in Hawaii, the 49-year-old carpenter said.

    “We always seem to have these hot markets that drive the prices up, and then it’s the hardworking local families that cannot buy houses who are kind of left out,” Gallano said.

    Gallano’s situation is emblematic of the acute affordable housing crisis afflicting Hawaii, a problem so deep that there’s now widespread concern that many of Hawaii’s children won’t be able to afford to live there as adults. Many residents are fearful their entire state — a diverse and culturally vibrant society with unique values and a complex identity — is being gentrified before their eyes as home prices soar.

    The median price of a single-family home topped $1 million in most areas of Hawaii during the coronavirus pandemic and has declined only modestly since. The state has the fourth-highest per capita rate of homelessness in the nation after California, Vermont and Oregon. On Thursday, new data showed the islands experienced net population loss five of the last six years. In 2022, U.S. census data showed more Native Hawaiians live outside Hawaii than within.

    Now, amid growing urgency, both the governor and Hawaii’s legislative leaders are making housing a top priority.

    In one of his first moves after taking office in January, Democratic Gov. Josh Green created a new housing czar to oversee the effort. One thing Chief Housing Officer Nani Medeiros is focused on is identifying roadblocks and redundant permitting at local and state levels that can hold up construction. The administration also wants to pour $1 billion into housing programs, including $450 million to subsidize the construction of affordable dwellings.

    Lawmakers have sponsored bills to trim bureaucracy, fund public housing renovations and encourage construction of dense housing on state land next to Honolulu’s planned rail line.

    Determined to find solutions, a college student taking a break during COVID-19 and a recent college graduate co-founded a nonprofit advocacy organization called Housing Hawaii’s Future to lobby on the issue. Nearly 1,500 people have signed their pledge to back more housing.

    “It really bothers me that we are saying to the young people of Hawaii, ‘It’s great that you might have been born and raised and educated here, but now that you’ve become an adult, you have to leave and you cannot come back,’” said state Sen. Stanley Chang, a Democrat who chairs the Senate housing committee.

    The departure of so many Native Hawaiians could dissipate Hawaiian values, like caring for the land, kuleana (sense of responsibility) and lokahi (working together), said Williamson Chang, a University of Hawaii law professor who is Native Hawaiian and not related to the senator.

    “There’s not a great effort to preserve Hawaiian values if you don’t have Hawaiians. In other words, who’s going to transmit these values? Who is going to teach these values?” he said.

    Some moves to shore up affordable housing by easing development regulations are being met with trepidation by conservationists, who warn that going too far in that direction could endanger the islands’ world-famous ecosystems and farmland.

    Wayne Tanaka, the director of the Hawaii chapter of the environmental and social justice nonprofit the Sierra Club, said efficiencies could expedite needed housing development, but the “devil is in the details.” He said the community must also consider the environment, water sources, food security and climate change threats, like severe drought and powerful hurricanes.

    “We don’t want to just build, build, build and then all of a sudden we don’t know how we’re going to feed ourselves when the climate crisis shuts down our harbors or dries up the places where we import our food from,” Tanaka said.

    Currently, housing construction is not keeping up with demand. Only 1,000 to 2,000 new housing units are being built in Hawaii each year. Those numbers are dwarfed by the 50,000 new units a 2019 state-commissioned study estimated would be needed by 2025.

    In contrast, in 1973, Honolulu approved permits for some 13,700 housing units, and the state’s three other main counties approved more than 4,000, said Paul Brewbaker, an economics consultant with TZ Economics.

    In extreme cases, developers face backlogs of years, or even decades.

    Kauai County officials labored more than a decade obtaining state and county permits before they could break ground to build affordable homes on former sugar cane land.

    Everett Dowling, the president of Maui developer Dowling Companies, said a developer can’t begin work on other housing when its money is tied up in a project awaiting permits. Engineers, architects and lawyers also can’t move on. And costs escalate.

    “The longer you hold a piece of property, the more you spend on it, the less affordable the housing becomes,” Dowling said.

    Housing director Medeiros said even with the new urgency, some of the reforms might not happen fast enough for her to be able to afford a home. But she hopes her 20-year-old daughter will be able to do so when she’s 40 and “my grandchildren hopefully, definitely will,” she said.

    Housing Hawaii’s Future, the youth advocacy group, is also helping to get housing built now.

    Evan Kamakana Gates, a Native Hawaiian who is attending Harvard University in Massachusetts, is one of the group’s co-founders. He’s worried Hawaii might be unrecognizable when he returns home because the people who make it home may not be there.

    “That’s a real fear,” he said. “Being in Hawaii but losing it, in a sense.”

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  • Yellen seeking more regulation in aftermath of bank collapse

    Yellen seeking more regulation in aftermath of bank collapse

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    WASHINGTON — Weeks after the failure of two banks, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen planned to call Thursday for tighter financial regulations.

    The public push is part of a larger effort by the Biden administration to safeguard the U.S. economy and ensure that individual bank failures can be contained without triggering a chain reaction across the wider financial system.

    Yellen plans to note that regulations have been weakened in recent years as the shocks of the 2008 financial crisis wore off, but that the recent failures required swift government intervention in order to preserve public confidence.

    “The failures of two regional banks this month demonstrate that our business is unfinished,” Yellen said in remarks prepared for delivery at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Washington. “Regulation imposes costs on firms, just like fire codes do for property owners. But the costs of proper regulation pale in comparison to the tragic costs of financial crises.”

    California-based Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank failed over the course of a weekend. Then another financial institution, First Republic Bank, received an emergency $30 billion infusion of funds from 11 large private banks.

    What seemed unique in the two failures was how quickly bank runs started in a digital era, putting at risk accounts that exceeded the $250,000 limit on deposit insurance. The banks’ holdings were also hurt by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in order to tame inflation.

    Yellen is focused not just on banks, but also rules for money market funds, hedge funds and cryptocurrency.

    “If there is any place where the vulnerabilities of the system to runs and fire sales have been clear-cut, it is money market funds,” she said in her prepared remarks. In February, money market funds contained net assets worth $5.3 trillion, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    She also was prepared to call for more oversight of digital assets and cryptocurrency, saying in her prepared remarks that “we must identify and fill gaps in existing authority for the oversight of other crypto-assets.” Yellen pointed to volatility in the market, as well as the collapse of FTX, the large crypto exchange that failed in November, which left investors and customers with billions in losses.

    President Joe Biden has called for restoring regulations that were undone during the Trump years that regulated midsize banks. He also has called for tougher penalties on the executives of failed banks, including clawing back compensation and making it easier to bar them from working in the industry.

    The root cause of the bank failures is still being explored and Yellen planned to caution in her remarks that government officials should not prejudge any inquiries that could inform changes in regulations.

    The Justice Department, the Fed, the SEC and several congressional committees have announced some form of investigation into the bank failures.

    Lawmakers have held hearings with regulators from the Fed, FDIC and Treasury this week. Both political parties blame Fed officials for not quickly spotting the unique risk that the banks were exposed to by holding onto an unusually large amount of uninsured deposits. The banks simultaneously invested in long-term government bonds and mortgage-backed securities that tumbled in value as interest rates rose.

    One thing that made Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse unique was the “extraordinary scale and speed” of customers trying to make withdrawals, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, told a congressional committee on Wednesday.

    Barr has said the Fed’s review of the bank’s collapse will consider whether stricter regulations are needed, including whether supervisors have the tools they need. The Fed will also consider whether tougher rules are needed on liquidity — the ability of the bank to access cash — and capital requirements, which govern the level of funds a bank needs to hold.

    A day before Silicon Valley Bank’s failure, customers tried to withdraw $42 billion, triggering a swift bank run that Barr said he had never seen before. “All of us were caught incredibly off-guard by the massive bank run that occurred when it did,” he said.

    __

    Boak reported from Baltimore.

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  • Average Wall Street bonuses dipped 26% to $176,700 last year

    Average Wall Street bonuses dipped 26% to $176,700 last year

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    Average Wall Street bonuses dropped sharply last year to $176,700 amid lagging profits and recession fears

    NEW YORK — Average Wall Street bonuses dropped sharply last year to $176,700 amid lagging profits and recession fears, New York state’s comptroller reported Thursday.

    The bonuses for employees in New York City’s securities industry dropped 26% from 2021, when the average was a record $240,400, according to New York state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s annual estimate. DiNapoli noted that bonuses last year returned to pre-pandemic levels.

    “Wall Street’s cash bonuses were expected to fall as several factors weighed on the securities’ industry profitability in 2022,” DiNapoli said in a prepared release.

    The comptroller said Wall Street’s pretax profits fell 56% in 2022 due to a sharp decline in investment-banking fees driven by inflation, interest-rate hikes and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    The bonus pool for 2022 was $33.7 billion, down 21% from the previous year’s record of $42.7 billion, according to the comptroller.

    The securities industry plays a major role in state and city tax revenue, accounting for an estimated 22% of the state’s tax collections and 8% of collections for the city.

    “Employment in leisure and hospitality, retail, restaurants and construction must continue to improve for the city and state to fully recover,” DiNapoli said.

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  • US revises down last quarter’s economic growth to 2.6% rate

    US revises down last quarter’s economic growth to 2.6% rate

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    The U.S. economy maintained its resilience from October through December despite rising interest rates, growing at a 2.6% annual pace, the government said Thursday in a slight downgrade from its previous estimate

    ByPAUL WISEMAN AP Economics Writer

    WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy maintained its resilience from October through December despite rising interest rates, growing at a 2.6% annual pace, the government said Thursday in a slight downgrade from its previous estimate.

    The government had previously estimated that the economy expanded at a 2.7% annual rate last quarter.

    The rise in the gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — for the October-December quarter was down from the 3.2% growth rate from July through September. Exports and consumer spending were revised lower in Thursday’s report.

    For all of 2022, the U.S. economy expanded 2.1%, down significantly from a robust 5.9% in 2021.

    Most economists say they think growth is slowing sharply in the current January-March quarter, in part because the Federal Reserve has steadily raised interest rates in its drive to curb inflation.

    The resulting surge in borrowing costs has walloped the housing industry and made it more expensive for consumers and businesses to spend and invest in major purchases. As a consequence, the economy is widely expected to slide into a recession later this year.

    The central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times over the past year. The Fed’s policymakers are betting that they can stick a so-called soft landing — slowing growth just enough to tame inflation without tipping the world’s biggest economy into recession.

    Yet as higher loan costs spread through the economy, analysts are generally skeptical that the United States can avoid a downturn. The main point of debate is whether a recession will prove mild, with only minor damage to hiring and growth, or severe, with waves of layoffs.

    In the meantime, the job market has remained robust and exerted upward pressure on wages, which feeds into inflation. The pace of hiring is still healthy, and the unemployment rate is near a half-century low. The confidence and spending of consumers, who fuel the bulk of U.S. economic growth, remains relatively solid.

    Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department was its third and final estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022. On April 27, the department will issue its initial estimate of growth in the current first quarter. Forecasters surveyed by the data firm FactSet have estimated that growth in the January-March quarter is decelerating to a 1.4% annual rate.

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  • Asia stocks mostly rise after Wall St rally, bank fears ease

    Asia stocks mostly rise after Wall St rally, bank fears ease

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    TOKYO — Asian shares were mostly higher Thursday following a rally on Wall Street as worries over banks following the collapses of several lenders in recent weeks receded.

    Forceful actions by regulators have helped to calm markets as investors have turned their focus to how central banks might adjust their interest rate policies to reflect persisting worries over how higher rates might affect lenders.

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 shed 0.5% to 27,740.58. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 1.0% to 7,122.30. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.7% to 2,459.73.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4% to 20,266.96, while the Shanghai Composite advanced 0.6% to 3,259.64 after China’s new No. 2 leader, Premier Li Qiang, said the recovery from a long slowdown picked up pace in March.

    The economy showed “encouraging momentum of rebounding” in January and February, Li said at the Boao Forum for Asia, a gathering of businesspeople and politicians on the southern island of Hainan.

    “The situation in March is even better,” he said.

    On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 1.4% Wednesday to 4,027.81, for its fourth gain in the last five days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1% to 32,717.60, while the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.8% to 11,926.24.

    The month has being dominated by worries about banks and whether the industry is cracking under the pressure of much higher interest rates.

    But a measure of fear among stock investors on Wall Street has fallen to nearly where it was on March 8, the day before Silicon Valley Bank’s customers suddenly yanked out $42 billion in a panicked dash. It became the second-largest U.S. bank failure in history and sparked harsher scrutiny of banks around the world.

    After regulators in Switzerland brokered a takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS, UBS said it’s bringing back its former CEO, Sergio Ermotti, to help it absorb Credit Suisse. Ermotti led a turnaround at UBS following the 2008 financial crisis.

    On Wall Street, nearly all of the financial stocks in the S&P 500 rose Wednesday. Some banks hit hardest in recent weeks rose sharply. First Republic Bank jumped 5.6%, and PacWest Bancorp. gained 5.1%.

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced the sale of much of Silicon Valley Bank’s assets early this week. Regulators have also announced programs to help banks raise cash and indicated support for depositors in case of crisis.

    The path ahead for the Federal Reserve and other central banks has become much more difficult because of the banking industry’s struggles. Typically, the still-high inflation seen around the world would call for even higher interest rates. But that would risk more pressure on banks, which could pull back on lending and squeeze the economy.

    Traders are largely betting the Fed will have to cut rates as soon as this summer, something that can act like steroids for markets. That’s helped Big Tech and other high-growth stocks in particular, which are seen as some of the biggest beneficiaries of lower rates.

    But the Fed has hinted it sees one more hike before holding rates steady through this year and many Wall Street professionals take it at its word, saying rate cuts would likely come more quickly only if the economy is in serious trouble.

    For now, a resilient job market has been holding up the economy, even as parts of it weaken under higher interest rates. Most of Wall Street will soon begin reporting how much profit they made in the first three months of the year under such conditions.

    In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude rose 21 cents to $73.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, edged up 2 cents to $78.30 a barrel.

    In currency trading, the U.S. dollar slipped to 132.50 Japanese yen from 132.75 yen. The euro cost $1.0839, inching down from $1.0847.

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  • Fed official: Bank rules under review in wake of SVB failure

    Fed official: Bank rules under review in wake of SVB failure

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    WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve’s bank supervisors informed Silicon Valley Bank’s management as early as the fall of 2021 of risks stemming from its unusual business model, a top Fed official said Tuesday, but the bank’s managers failed to take the steps necessary to fix its problems.

    The Fed official, Michael Barr, the nation’s top banking regulator, said during a Senate Banking Committee hearing that the Fed is considering whether stronger bank rules are needed to prevent a similar bank failure in the future.

    “Supervisors had rated the bank at a very low rating,” Barr said. “At the holding company level it was rated deficient, which is also clearly not well-managed.”

    The timeline that Barr laid out for when the Fed had alerted Silicon Valley Bank’s management to the risks it faced is earlier than the central bank has previously said the bank was on its radar screen.

    Tuesday’s hearing is the first formal congressional inquiry into the March 10 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the subsequent failure of New York-based Signature Bank, the second- and third-largest bank failures in U.S. history.

    The failures set off financial tremors in the U.S. and Europe and led the Fed and other government agencies to back all deposits at the two banks, even though nearly 90% of both banks’ deposits exceeded the $250,000 insurance threshold. The Fed also established a new lending program to enable banks to more easily raise cash if needed.

    Late Sunday, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said that resolving the two banks, including reimbursing depositors, would cost its insurance fund $20 billion, the largest such impact in its history. The FDIC plans to recoup those funds through a levy on all banks, which will likely be passed on to consumers.

    Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrat who leads the committee, suggested that Silicon Valley Bank’s failure and the government’s rescue of its depositors, which included wealthy venture capitalists and large tech companies, had caused “justified anger” among many Americans.

    “I understand why many Americans are angry — even disgusted — at how quickly the government mobilized, when a bunch of elites in California were demanding it,” Brown said.

    Silicon Valley’s deposits grew rapidly and were heavily concentrated in the high-tech sector, which made it particularly vulnerable to a downturn in a single industry. It had bought long-term Treasurys and other bonds with those funds.

    The value of those bonds fell as interest rates rose. When the bank was forced to sell those bonds to repay depositors as they withdrew funds, Silicon Valley absorbed heavy losses and couldn’t repay all its customers.

    Barr said the Fed’s review of what happened with Silicon Valley will consider whether stricter regulations are needed, including whether supervisors have the tools needed to follow up on their warnings. The Fed will also consider whether tougher rules are needed on liquidity — the ability of the bank to access cash — and capital requirements, the level of funds held by the bank.

    “A review will consider whether the supervisory warnings were sufficient and whether supervisors had sufficient tools to escalate,” Barr said. “I anticipate the need to strengthen capital and liquidity standards for firms over $100 billion,” which would have included SVB.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he will support any regulatory changes that are proposed by Barr.

    Last September, before the banks’ collapse, Barr had said he was conducting a “holistic review” of the government’s capital requirements. He suggested that he might support toughening those requirements, which prompted criticism from the banking industry and Republican senators.

    Barr also said in prepared remarks that the Fed will review whether a 2018 law that weakened stricter bank rules also contributed to the financial turmoil.

    “SVB’s failure is a textbook case of mismanagement,” Barr said.

    Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the FDIC, and Nellie Liang, the Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, also testified Tuesday. On Wednesday, all three will testify to a House committee.

    Gruenberg said the FDIC, which insures bank deposits, and the Fed and Treasury, took steps to protect the two banks’ depositors to prevent a broader bank run, in which customers would swiftly withdraw their funds and can cause even healthy banks to buckle.

    “I think there would have been a contagion,” Gruenberg said, “and I think we would have been in a worse situation today.”

    Gruenberg said in his testimony that the top 10 depositors at Silicon Valley held $13.3 billion in their accounts. That is an enormous figure that reflects the wealth of many of its customers, which included large companies such as Roku, the streaming video company, which held about $500 million in an SVB account.

    Democratic senators charged that the failures can be attributed, to some extent, to the 2018 softening of the stricter bank regulations that were enacted by the 2010 Dodd-Frank law.

    The 2018 law exempted banks with assets between $100 billion to $250 billion — Silicon Valley’s size — from requirements that it maintain sufficient cash, or liquidity, to cover 30 days of withdrawals. It also meant that banks of that size were subject less often to so-called “stress tests,” which sought to evaluate how they would fare in a sharp recession or a financial meltdown.

    Simon Johnson, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-wrote a book about the 2008-2009 financial crisis, said he believed the 2018 regulatory rollback “contributed to a big relaxation of supervision and fed into this lackadaisical attitude around Silicon Valley Bank.’’

    But Steven Kelly, senior research associate at the Yale program on financial stability, said he believed that Silicon Valley Bank’s business model was so flawed that requiring it to hold more liquidity wouldn’t have helped it withstand the lightning-fast bank run that toppled it. On Thursday, March 9, depositors — many of them operating swiftly, using smart phones — withdrew $42 billion, or 20% of its assets, in a single day.

    “You’re never going to write liquidity regulations that are strict enough to prevent that, when there’s a run on a fundamentally unviable bank,” Kelly said.

    The Fed has come under harsh criticism by groups advocating tighter financial regulation for failing to adequately supervise Silicon Valley Bank and prevent its collapse, and Barr will likely face tough questioning by members of both parties.

    As recently as mid-February 2023, Barr says in his prepared testimony, Fed staffers told the central bank’s board of governors that rising rates were threatening the finances of some banks and highlighted, in particular, the risk-taking at Silicon Valley Bank.

    “But, as it turned out,” Barr says, “the full extent of the bank’s vulnerability was not apparent until the unexpected bank run on March 9.”

    ___

    AP Economics Writer Paul Wiseman contributed to this report.

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  • Brazil has a new biggest favela, and not in Rio de Janeiro

    Brazil has a new biggest favela, and not in Rio de Janeiro

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    SOL NASCENTE, Brazil — The buzzing main avenue of this poor Brazilian neighborhood is filled with people popping off buses after work or grabbing a bite. Teens attend an open-air rap battle and gymnastics class. Hymns and prayers from tiny church services spill into the night.

    It’s an ordinary Wednesday in Brazil’s biggest favela, or low-income neighborhood. And for the first time since poverty, lack of opportunity and economic inequality caused favelas to mushroom across many of the nation’s cities, that superlative doesn’t belong to a favela in Rio de Janeiro.

    Sol Nascente (Rising Sun, in English) is just 21 miles (34 kilometers) from capital Brasilia in the Federal District, whose GDP per capita is by far higher than any Brazilian state, underscoring the inequality between affluent public servants’ neighborhoods and the district’s outskirts.

    The number of households in Sol Nascente has swelled 31% since 2010 to more than 32,000, surpassing Rio’s hillside Rocinha favela that had been Brazil’s most populous, according to preliminary data from the ongoing census. Rocinha has almost 31,000 households, the data show.

    Along Sol Nascente’s unpaved dirt roads of self-built homes and inside the main strip’s busy stores and restaurants, no one The Associated Press spoke welcomed the new ranking,

    “We still need lots of things, like basic sanitation and infrastructure, but people nowadays have better conditions. Some even have a car,” said street vendor Francisca Célia, 43.

    Célia added that, despite its challenges, Sol Nascente isn’t nearly as disorganized nor dangerous as the favelas she saw when visiting Rio three years ago. Plus, available plots of land are much bigger.

    “It’s a paradise here,” she said.

    The growth of Sol Nascente’s population reflects new arrivals searching for cheap or unoccupied land to build homes, whereas elsewhere in the Federal District poor people often pay relatively high rents. It also mirrors the surge of people living in working-class neighborhoods nationwide, driven by a generalized housing crisis caused by deep recession and higher rent prices, the effects of which were compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Marcelo Neri, an economist and social researcher at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university and think tank.

    The number of people living in areas the national statistics institute classifies as “subnormal agglomerates” jumped 40% to 16 million people since the 2010 census, according to the institute’s preliminary data, reviewed by the AP. Brazil’s population as a whole grew less than 9% in that period.

    Subnormal agglomerates include not just favelas, but also other terms used in Brazil to describe urban areas with irregular occupation and deficient public services. Residents of Sol Nascente acknowledge that it once was a favela, but told the AP that many areas of the community have outgrown that term.

    The statistics institute ceases to consider communities subnormal agglomerates once most residents gain legal title to their properties or all essential services are available, according to the institute’s geography coordinator, Cayo Franco.

    Favelas grow as settlers move onto unoccupied public and private land, whether on steep hillsides or flatland, like Sol Nascente.

    Sol Nascente still has poor public transport and unpaved, impassable roads, which flood frequently during the months of summer rains. Only some residents have obtained legal title, and services aren’t universally accessible.

    “I pay electricity, water, taxes, but there’s no sewage nor asphalt here in front,” said Débora Alencar, 39, who moved to Sol Nascente 15 years ago after finding the opportunity to buy land and build a house.

    “This is where I gained dignity,” she added.

    Alencar runs a collective that receives food, clothing and school materials for the needy. It also provides vocational training for manicurists and make-up artists, as well as dance and theater classes.

    She has also been a community representative since 2019, negotiating with the Federal District’s government for investments. She said she has secured some improvements, but not enough.

    A common characteristic among favelas is that the stigma lingers even after residents obtain titles and services, according to Theresa Williamson, executive director of non-profit Catalytic Communities, a Rio-based non-profit that studies favelas.

    That sentiment is familiar to Nayara Miguel, a housewife with two kids in a tidy area of Sol Nascente that now has electricity and water, and where the local government recently paved streets and installed public lighting. The federal government’s cities ministry has earmarked funds for a housing project there.

    “For me, this isn’t a favela; it’s a city,” said Miguel, 30. “Of course, it’s lacking a lot: I couldn’t get a spot in daycare for my daughter, so I can’t work; we can get to the hospital, but there’s no doctor there to attend to us.”

    Neighboring areas still feature shacks. Bruno Ferreira and his wife have been carving out a life in a destitute area of Sol Nascente for the last seven years. They found a place where, with their own hands, they could build a one-bedroom home to call their own and escape the rent trap.

    Ferreira, 39, works odd jobs and his wife has a formal, full-time job at a lunch counter. They are raising five children, with a sixth on the way, and saving to put in tile atop their home’s earthen floor.

    Neither desires to leave.

    “It’s very good here,” he said. “It’s just lacking infrastructure to be beautiful and legal.”

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  • Global shares mostly rise on relief over US bank strength

    Global shares mostly rise on relief over US bank strength

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    TOKYO — Global shares were mostly higher on Tuesday as investors got some relief from worries over troubled U.S. lenders from a takeover of failed Silicon Valley Bank.

    France’s CAC 40 added 0.5% to 7,116.72 in early trading. Germany’s DAX rose 0.4% to 15,191.93. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.4% to 7,504.04. The future for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% while the future for the S&P 500 was virtually unchanged.

    Asian shares finished higher. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 edged up 0.2% to finish at 27,518.25. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.0% to 7,034.10. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.1% to 2,434.94. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.9% to 19,751.94, while the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to 3,245.38.

    “Asian equities were positive on Tuesday, lifted by mostly higher major indices in the previous session. Receding fears surrounding the banking crisis and surging oil prices led to solid risk-taking flows,” Anderson Alves of ActivTrades said in a report.

    Markets have been in turmoil following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, the second-largest U.S. bank failure in history, earlier this month, and then the third-largest failure, by New York-based Signature Bank.

    On Monday, the S&P 500 eked out a 0.2% gain led by bank and energy stocks. The Dow industrials rose 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5%, reflecting losses in Google parent Alphabet and other tech companies.

    Investors have been hunting for which banks could be next to fall as the system creaks under the pressure of much higher interest rates.

    A broader worry has been that all the weakness for banks could cause a pullback in lending to small and midsized businesses across the country. That in turn could lead to less hiring, less growth and a higher risk of a recession. Many economists were already expecting an economic downturn before all the struggles for banks.

    The Federal Reserve has pulled its key overnight rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, up from virtually zero at the start of last year. It indicated last week that the troubles in the banking system could end up acting like rate hikes on their own, by slowing lending.

    Huge, quick swings in expectations for the Fed have caused historic-sized moves in the bond market.

    Yields jumped Monday in their latest lunge. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans, rose to 3.53% from 3.37% late Friday. It was above 4% earlier this month.

    In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added 43 cents to $73.24 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It gained $3.55 to $72.81 per barrel on Monday.

    Brent crude, the international standard, rose 24 cents to $78.36 a barrel.

    In currency trading, the U.S. dollar fell to 131.17 Japanese yen from 131.56 yen. The euro cost $1.0823, up from $1.0804.

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