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  • Champions League draw analysis: City thrilled, Barca-Napoli dream tie and predictions

    Champions League draw analysis: City thrilled, Barca-Napoli dream tie and predictions

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    The draw for the last 16 of the Champions League was made in UEFA’s Nyon headquarters this morning and Europe’s big guns will have largely liked the outcome.

    England’s two remaining representatives, Arsenal and Manchester City, were handed kind draws in Porto and Copenhagen, while Real Madrid were paired with RB Leipzig.

    Of the more established big guns, Barcelona face arguably the toughest task, having been paired with last season’s Italian champions Napoli.

    Here, our experts cast their eye over the draw and what could happen next.

    Which game are you most excited about?

    Oliver Kay: Napoli vs Barcelona. Both clubs are experiencing hangovers from last season’s title success, but what better than a tie like that to get them going? In terms of individual talent, tactical intrigue and the atmosphere expected in Naples in particular, this tie sticks out. Second choice: Paris Saint-Germain vs Real Sociedad.

    James Horncastle: Maurizio Sarri will be disappointed. The Lazio manager wanted the chance to coach at the Camp Nou. Nevertheless, Lazio vs Bayern Munich sees him face Thomas Tuchel, pitting a couple of cantankerous ex-Chelsea coaches against each other in the ‘Miroslav Klose-ico’. Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid is also Simone Inzaghi vs ex-Interista Diego Simeone and looks delicately poised, particularly because last year’s finalists face one of the better vintages of Simeone’s Atleti.

    Laia Cervello Herrero: Barcelona vs Napoli. It could be an interesting match, especially given how Xavi’s team are faring. They are unpredictable and that makes the match more attractive. It will also be the first time in three years that we will see Barca in the knockout stage of the Champions League.


    Victor Osimhen and Giacomo Raspadori pose a threat to Barcelona (Francesco Pecoraro/Getty Images)

    Liam Tharme: PSG vs Real Sociedad. Two teams that will go toe-to-toe, playing out and pressing. Don’t expect this to be a typically cagey knockout game. PSG just about squeezed through their group — even if Group F was the hardest of the lot — and will need a statement performance. They have looked vulnerable when pressed high and La Real will certainly do that.

    Sebastian Stafford-Bloor: Peter Bosz against Borussia Dortmund. Now flying at PSV Eindhoven, Bosz lasted half a season at the Westfalenstadion in 2017 and the way his Dortmund side fell apart still impacts how he’s viewed. Bosz is a punchline to some and he will be thrilled to take his brilliant PSV side (16 wins from 16 in the Eredivisie) to Germany. Fascinating — and that’s without even considering the questions surrounding Edin Terzic’s future.

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    Key dates

    Round of 16: February 13/14/20/21 and March 5/6/12/13
    Quarter-finals: April 9/10 and 16/17
    Semi-finals: April 30/May 1 and May 7/8
    Final (Wembley): June 1

    Who will be happiest with the draw?

    Oliver Kay: Manchester City. No disrespect to Copenhagen, but that is the opponent all the group winners wanted. The Danish team were a real surprise package in the group stage, but they will find City a rather tougher proposition than their neighbours.

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    James Horncastle: City, as usual. I look forward to Stefan Ortega, Micah Hamilton, Oscar Bobb and Mahamadou Susoho helping the treble winners reach the quarter-finals. Serie A leads this season’s UEFA co-efficient sweepstakes and, alongside Ligue 1, still has a full contingent of teams across UEFA’s three competitions. The draws look tough for Italy’s representatives but in the Champions League, Barcelona are not what they used to be and Inter got the ‘right’ team from Madrid, too.

    Laia Cervello Herrero: City, without a doubt. They’ve been drawn with the lowest-ranked opponents and they still have the tag of reigning Champions League winners. They can already see themselves in the quarter-finals.

    Liam Tharme: Presumably City, even if they did draw in Copenhagen in the group stages last season. They have missed the big hitters and get the bonus of a chance to eliminate the team that went through in place of their city rivals — not that they needed to justify which of the Manchester teams is faring better.


    Manchester City were held in Copenhagen last year (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

    Sebastian Stafford-Bloor: Bayern Munich. Tuchel will probably have two or three new players to weave into his first team at the end of the transfer window and this tie, against Sarri’s underwhelming Lazio, should offer a chance to grow into the latter stages of the tournament. Bayern’s worst-case scenario would have been a fast-paced, vertical opponent, and Lazio certainly aren’t that.

    Which ‘giant’ could be in the most trouble?

    Oliver Kay: Barcelona, although I would still put them as slight favourites to overcome Napoli. It’s a funny season. None of the heavyweights are performing particularly well, so it’s possible to imagine any one of Barcelona, Bayern or Real Madrid coming unstuck — plus PSG, whom I’m not going to categorise as giants.

    James Horncastle: The underwhelming Barcelona. Will Xavi still be in charge come February? Robert Lewandowski seems a shadow of himself. Of course, a lot can change in two months. But a Spalletti-less Napoli still has enough skill to win the ‘Maradona derby’.

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    Laia Cervello Herrero: Real Sociedad have shown a great level in La Liga and the Champions League and they have a chance against PSG, who are not having the best season.

    Liam Tharme: PSG, for all the reasons I mentioned above. Luis Enrique was brought in as a project coach — which is reflected in their summer signings, more youth and less galactico-y — but PSG have gone out in the last 16 in the past two seasons (though to bigger European clubs, in Bayern Munich and Manchester City). If they lose to Real Sociedad, it will probably be down to tactics.


    Luis Enrique is under pressure at PSG (Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images)

    Sebastian Stafford-Bloor: The draw didn’t create too much jeopardy, but it’s probably Barcelona. Napoli are not what they were under Spalletti, but Xavi’s Barca have so little life in them — and so few goals. You can imagine them losing in Naples.

    Your predicted quarter-finalists

    Oliver Kay: Arsenal, Barcelona, PSG, Atletico, Dortmund, Bayern, City and Real Madrid.

    James Horncastle: Arsenal, Napoli, Real Sociedad, Inter, Dortmund, Bayern, City and Real Madrid.

    Laia Cervello Herrero: Arsenal, Barcelona, PSG, Atletico, Dortmund, Bayern, Manchester City and Real Madrid.

    Liam Tharme: Arsenal, Napoli, Real Sociedad, Inter, Dortmund, Bayern, City and Real Madrid.

    Sebastian Stafford-Bloor: Arsenal, Napoli, PSG, Inter, PSV, Bayern, City and Real Madrid.

    What would be your dream final from these teams?

    Oliver Kay: I’m not going to say an all-English final (too parochial) and I’m not going to say one English club and not the other. From a neutral perspective, in terms of what the clubs stand for, I like the idea of Real Sociedad vs Borussia Dortmund, but that’s not going to happen, is it?

    James Horncastle: Copenhagen against Real Sociedad. You asked for a dream final and this is the wildest fever dream. Jokes aside, I would like to see an outsider make it to Wembley on the 20th anniversary of Porto’s victory in Gelsenkirchen.

    Laia Cervello Herrero: Barcelona vs Manchester City. Although it is unlikely and it would be painful for the Catalans, I would like to see a final between Pep Guardiola and Barca.

    Liam Tharme: I would love to see Inter get to the final again, so wouldn’t be against a repeat of last season’s final, or perhaps against Arsenal, for another clash of styles.

    Sebastian Stafford-Bloor: City against Real Madrid. They bring out the best in each other; something always happens to make those games a spectacle. Adding Jude Bellingham seems unlikely to make it any less so, but the broader sub-plots are just so compelling. The contrasting historical and evolutionary dynamics have really made this into an absorbing rivalry between a symbol of the game’s past and a vision of its future.


    Jude Bellingham will be targeting Champions League glory (Angel Martinez/Getty Images)

    How will Arsenal view the draw?

    Arsenal will feel slightly at ease by drawing Porto for the round of 16, but should not be lulled into a false sense of security.

    They have missed most of the big names in the draw, including PSG, Inter and Napoli, but Porto are doing well in Liga Portugal. They have an identical record to Sporting Lisbon, with both clubs two points off league leaders Benfica and a game in hand against each other tonight (Monday). Last season, Arsenal drew Sporting in the Europa League round of 16, which was seen as a favourable draw, but the Portuguese side advanced via a penalty shootout.

    Even so, Arsenal have looked exceptional in this year’s Champions League and should be strong enough to progress. They had the best goal difference (+12) of any team in this year’s group stage and have looked more free-flowing in Europe than the Premier League.

    Mikel Arteta has not rotated his side as much as he did in the Europa League last term. A consistent team, mixed with the fact that European defences do not defend as deep or tightly as English ones, has allowed his attacking players to flourish on Champions League nights. These encounters should lift Arsenal’s confidence before they kick on into the business end of the season.

    And there is an intriguing sub-plot, as well: a reunion for Fabio Vieira with his boyhood club, the midfielder having signed from Porto in the summer of 2022.

    Art de Roche


    Fabio Vieira will return to his old club Porto (Glynn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)

    How will Manchester City view the draw?

    It will be a great trip to a lovely city for the fans (albeit a bit pricey) and City should win.

    They only played each other last season and the game at Parken was a goalless shocker, but only after City had back-up left-back Sergio Gomez sent off in the first half.

    City have got their problems but we have seen time and time again, not just with this club but many others (often Real Madrid), that issues in December often count for very little by the time the last 16 rolls around in February.

    And even if City are still struggling with silly mistakes (which is basically what is costing them) there should still be a big enough margin for error given how strong they are compared to Copenhagen.

    Inter and PSG could have caused a bigger headache and, while you can never say never in football, City can be very pleased with this draw.

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    Sam Lee

    How will Real Madrid view the draw?

    They avoided Kylian Mbappe’s PSG, Inter and Lazio, but Real Madrid won’t consider Leipzig comfortable opponents. Far from it.

    Last season, Leipzig beat Madrid 3-2 in the Champions League group stage — a defeat that will not have been forgotten. And even though Leipzig have seen important players move on since, including Josko Gvardiol, Dominik Szoboszlai and Christopher Nkunku, they are doing well this season; third in the Bundesliga behind Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, comfortable runners-up behind Manchester City in Group G.

    That is why Carlo Ancelotti’s Real should not be overconfident — although, as always in European matches, they start as favourites. Even more so when bearing in mind that the second leg is at the Santiago Bernabeu, where the atmosphere always helps.

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    Guillermo Rai

    How will Barcelona view the draw?

    With Barcelona seven points behind Real Madrid in La Liga and with Girona still to play Alaves this evening, the Champions League is a huge deal.

    Falling short on domestic expectations means Xavi has to deliver in Europe — and returning some self-esteem to a club that last played in the knockout stages in 2021 would greatly help overcome the trauma of recent European failures.

    The draw could have been better, but it could have been way worse — especially with PSG in the mix.

    Barca and Napoli have met twice in knockout ties over the past four years. In February 2022, Xavi helped Barca past the Italians in the Europa League intermediate stage in his first season in charge. In 2020, Barca beat them over two legs in the Champions League last 16.

    This term, Napoli have struggled to match their dominating form of last season. Barca are struggling under Xavi, too, but this match-up will at least mean they can have realistic hopes of reaching the quarter-finals — which would also provide a huge financial relief.

    Pol Ballus

    (Top photo: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Why everyone wants Xabi Alonso as their next head coach

    Why everyone wants Xabi Alonso as their next head coach

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    From the relegation zone to being level on points with Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga, Xabi Alonso has led Bayer Leverkusen on quite the ride in his 12 months as manager. Some sort of rebound was almost inevitable given the team’s talent, but the complete change in the team’s attitude under the Spaniard has been nothing short of remarkable.

    Ever since the club acquired the unwanted “Neverkusen” moniker following three runners-up spots in 2002, Bayer had been a byword for underachievement and lack of resilience. Now though, they are coming back from a late goal away to serial champions Bayern to score an even later equaliser and generally play with a swagger that befits the most balanced, confident team in the league.

    Sporting director Simon Rolfes makes no effort to underplay the manager’s role in this transformation. “There’s a seriousness and maturity in our football that reflects Xabi as a person,” the 41-year-old tells The Athletic. “He’s a natural competitor and winner. He’s instilled a battle-hardened attitude and a fighting spirit in the side.”

    Rolfes points to February’s knockout-stage win against Monaco in the Europa League as a key game in lifting spirits last season. “We were the better team in the first leg at home but lost 3-2 because of two late goals.

    “In Monaco, we were again the better team and should have won it in 90 minutes. But we had to go into extra time and then to penalties — after we had missed the last seven spot kicks in a row. It was all set up for another unlucky finish. Things looked like they were going against us all season. But we scored all five and won! That was an important moment for the team and all of us.” Bayer went on to narrowly lose against Jose Mourinho’s Roma in the semi-final.

    Tactically, Alonso has drawn from many of the different ideas he encountered playing under Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho, Carlo Ancelotti and Rafael Benitez. His first move was to stabilise the defence, playing counter-attacking football. Once they were more solid out of possession, Alonso put his attention to improving Leverkusen’s quality on the ball. They have taken another big step forward this year, becoming more and more watchable, and they are now playing the best football in Germany.

    “Xabi is not a dogmatic manager,” Rolfe says. “When necessary, the team know how to defend or be pragmatic in certain situations, it’s not always the beautiful build-up from the back. Finding a way to win is what matters to him, more than anything.”


    Alonso relays instructions to Jonas Hofmann (Christof Koepsel/Getty Images)

    However, there is a sense that Alonso’s philosophy is firmly rooted in his development at his boyhood club, Real Sociedad. He had his first playing and managerial opportunities at a club that has an emphasis on producing technically gifted players to play controlled, possession-based football.

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    He took La Real’s B team to promotion to the Spanish second tier for the first time in 60 years. Although they were relegated at the end of that campaign, there are caveats, namely his youthful squad, which had an average age of 21.4 years). His inexperienced team still topped 70 per cent possession in seven separate games.

    At Leverkusen, their steady improvement has coincided with the increased control in their build-up across the last calendar year, with their blistering start to the season built on pass-heavy attacking moves.

    As the scatterplot below illustrates, no side have averaged more passes per sequence throughout the opening five games. They have even more than Bayern. Leverkusen’s slightly higher ‘direct speed’ (how fast the ball moved upfield) suggests that they can be quick and incisive when the space opens up too.

    Summer recruitment has also accelerated Leverkusen’s progress, with tactically versatile players allowing for a new system.

    Wing-back Alejandro Grimaldo has given Alonso an attacking threat down the left-hand side — after generating 12.7 expected assists (a measurement of the quality of chances a player creates) last season at Benfica, a figure that only five players in Europe’s top-seven leagues could better — along with defensive solidity, which allows Leverkusen to shift into a solid back-four shape in the build-up.

    Centre-backs Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah and Odilon Kossounou all move over, allowing the dangerous Jeremie Frimpong to push on with more freedom.

    In the middle, the experienced Jonas Hofmann is a talented technician who can combine with Frimpong and cover defensively for his live-wire team-mate, while Granit Xhaka has reinforced a solid double-pivot, encouraging the creative presence of Florian Wirtz to roam across the attacking third in search of the ball, as below.

    Leverkusen scored their second goal against Heidenheim with this exact structure at the weekend, as Hofmann darted in behind to receive a perfect through pass from Exequiel Palacios.

    There’s also the relentless Victor Boniface, who has averaged an incredible 7.6 shots per 90 minutes since joining the Bundesliga, to go alongside his explosive off-the-ball running. Leverkusen are a potent attacking force.

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    “Having a deep theoretical understanding of football and a superstar aura from winning everything as a player is a ridiculously powerful combination for a manager,” one senior Bayer official tells The Athletic on condition of anonymity, maintained to protect relationships. “He’s done it all but he has the work ethic and humility of a total novice.” Alonso is the first one in and last one out every day, brooding over tactical details for hours on end.

    An employee who saw him address the annual staff meeting described him as “a rather dry” orator who’s not a natural entertainer nor a tactile ‘Menschenfanger’ (catcher of men) like Jurgen Klopp. Unlike some of his predecessors at Bayer, he has shown little interest in club departments that don’t directly impact football. He only really cares about the game.

    But that sort of single-mindedness has also inspired staff members at a club that has sometimes been mockingly described as a ‘Wohlfuhloase, an oasis of comfort, due to the relative lack of pressure to succeed. Alonso has managed to energise Leverkusen staffers with his professionalism, charm and hunger for success. “You just sort of believe every word he says, because of who he is and the way he says it,” the employee says. “You believe that he will bring success. Because he does.”

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    The players are similarly entranced. It doesn’t hurt that Alonso is still the best footballer on the training pitch six years into retirement. He regularly pings 50-metre diagonals that land on the intended blade of grass and plays vertical passes that cut through lines like a freshly sharpened yanagiba knife, all without breaking a drop of sweat.

    Some people in the club were initially concerned his fantastic technique might intimidate the team, or worse, rub them the wrong way. They recalled 1990 World Cup winner Pierre Littbarski, in his role as assistant coach to Berti Vogts in Leverkusen in 2001, showing off his free-kick-taking skills, teasing the players for falling short of his standards. “You have to take out the shoe trees from your boots,” the former midfielder used to joke. Until one day, one Bayer player sought revenge — and ‘accidentally’ scythed down Littbarski in a training game.

    That won’t happen to Alonso, and not just because he’s too slick to get caught by a mean-spirited tackle. The team respects and admires him far too much. “There are some former pros who try to impress players with their skills on the ball, since they don’t have much else to offer by way of coaching,” the senior club official says. “Xabi doesn’t need that. He just plays a killer pass to get his idea across — like somebody would draw an arrow on the tactics board — and to raise the quality of the training exercise.”


    Alonso’s glittering playing career earns him respect (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)

    There’s an air of focus and commitment to the cause that hasn’t always been observed on the training pitches just across from the BayArena stadium. Alonso moves a lot, talks a lot and sometimes shouts if he feels that a specific message needs emphasis. Recently, he set his team a challenge to be more effective from set pieces. When they duly improved, he rewarded them with two days off.

    “He’s a very clever man with sensitive antennas that pick up all sorts of signals,” says another Bayer source who works with Alonso on a daily basis. He points to the manager making sure that some players whose contributions are in danger of getting overlooked by the public receive their due share of the limelight and a bit of extra attention from him.

    Alonso isn’t the sole reason for Bayer’s positive momentum, obviously. He has a strong relationship with Leverkusen’s Spanish CEO Fernando Carro and Rolfes, a former central midfielder who’s the same age as Alonso and shares many of his footballing convictions. His ideas are closely aligned with Leverkusen’s transfer policy, too.

    The club’s scouting has been formidable for decades, but last summer they were especially smart. Selling French winger Moussa Diaby to Aston Villa for €60million (£52m, $63m) enabled them to invest in a couple more seasoned pros to complement the array of talented youngsters.

    Former Arsenal midfielder Xhaka and Germany international Hofmann, both 31, have added character and mentality as much as quality to the dressing room. Grimaldo, 28, is also being mentioned as a hugely positive influence behind the scenes. And on top of that, it’s always useful to add a dynamic goalscorer in Boniface (six goals in five league games), signed for €20.5m from Union Saint-Gilloise.

    Picking the right club to succeed is a coach’s most underrated skill. Alonso has been especially careful in that respect. He took this time to learn the trade in three years at Real Sociedad B and turned down a chance to coach Borussia Monchengladbach in the spring of 2021 — he knew from his time at Bayern as a player (2014-2017) that Leverkusen were a better fit.

    Bayer are a relatively wealthy club committed to attacking football but they don’t operate in a cacophony of media noise, due to the small size of the city. It’s an ideal place for a young manager to make his next steps. The only question now is how long Bayer can keep up with a manager who’s going places.

    Rolfes says they are not worried about reports linking Alonso to the Real Madrid job. “I never mind rumours about our players or coaches. If they’re good and successful, others will take note. In April, there were plenty of stories that Alonso would leave this summer. Didn’t happen.” Instead, he signed a new contract until 2026.

    Bayer are not naive. If Alonso gets offered the Bernabeu job for next season and decides he’s ready to take it, the Germans won’t keep him against his will and will try to manage that process in a way that minimises disruption. But there’s still hope it won’t be over come May. Bayer have received no indication that Alonso wants to move on. And from everything they’ve seen so far, he’s not a man in a hurry.

    (Top photo: Getty Images)

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    The New York Times

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  • Erik Ten Hag Hails Casemiro’s Impact At Manchester United

    Erik Ten Hag Hails Casemiro’s Impact At Manchester United

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    Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag has hailed the impact of Casemiro at the Old Trafford club since his arrival from Real Madrid in the summer.

    The Brazilian midfielder has played an increasingly central part in Ten Hag’s improving side since they were beaten 6-3 by Manchester City a month ago.

    Casemiro was not in the starting line-up at the Etihad stadium that day, but since his recall to the side United have remained unbeaten in eight games.

    The former Real Madrid man has started every game in this run as United have won six games, against Everton, Tottenham and West Ham in the Premier League, and Omonia twice and Sheriff once in the Europa League, and drawn twice.

    It was Casemiro who kept the unbeaten run going with a late equaliser against Chelsea in United’s 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge at the end of October.

    “He told me when we had the first talk he needs a new challenge,” Ten Hag said at a press conference on Wednesday. “Because with Real Madrid he won everything.”

    “He was a big part of Real Madrid, still they don’t want him to go but he had the feeling I have to go to another club, to another league to prove myself and that shows his hunger, I really like that.”

    “From the first day he is coming with that attitude to every training, to every match and he proves it. I really like it and he will be more and more important to our team.”

    “I said it the other day, he is the cement between the stones in and out of possession. You see him growing from game to game and with that, our team is growing. We are really happy with that process but we have to keep that process going, because we are not satisfied, good is not good enough, we have to do better, so tomorrow we have another challenge and another test to do better.”

    The Dutchman was speaking ahead of Manchester United’s final Europa League group game against Real Sociedad in San Sebastian on Thursday.

    In the Reale Arena United need to win by two goals to overtake the Spanish side and finish top of their group to avoid having to play an extra round in the competition against one of the eight sides who will finish third in their Champions League group.

    A two goal victory on Thursday would see United straight through to the Europa League round of sixteen and avoid extra games in what will already be a congested schedule after the World Cup.

    The Spaniards have won all of their five Europa League group games so far this season, including a 1-0 victory over United back in September.

    Ten Hag believes his side has significantly improved since then. “It’s six weeks ago or so and it’s a different team, not all the players then are fit,” he said. “We’re growing, developing, making good progress.”

    “We know it’s difficult to win games here but we like the challenge. We know we have to win by two goals, we have a plan for that and we will do everything to get it done.”

    A draw would see Real Sociedad win the group, but Ten Hag believes they won’t be able to sit back for ninety minutes. “I think their coach likes proactive football, they want to play and I think they will stick to that. If it’s a different approach we will adapt but we know what to do.”

    Ten Hag confirmed United will be without Jadon Sancho, who is ill, and Antony and Antony Martial, who are both recovering from injuries.

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    Sam Pilger, Contributor

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