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Tag: real estate

  • California’s moving van outflow slowed in 2025

     

    California van moves, average shares of 3 companies. (Graphic by Flourish) 

    One yardstick of California’s popularity as a place to live made a slight improvement last year.

    My trusty spreadsheet has collected annual migration data dating back to 2004 from three major moving van providers — Allied, Atlas and United. While having someone else move your stuff by van is usually an option for upper-crust Americans changing home states, this metric is worth following because it tends to parallel California’s competition for residents with other states.

    Jonathan Lansner

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  • President Trump Just Made a Big Move That Could Benefit 1 of My Top Stock Picks for 2026

    • U.S. existing home sales are near a five-year low right now, as elevated interest rates keep buyers sidelined.

    • President Trump just announced a plan that could bring down mortgage rates and reignite the real estate market.

    • Douglas Elliman is one of America’s largest real estate brokerage companies, and its stock could soar in 2026 if the president’s plan works.

    • 10 stocks we like better than Douglas Elliman ›

    Prediction Market powered by

    In August 2023, the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded an aggressive campaign to hike interest rates, which sent the cost of a mortgage skyrocketing to the highest level in two decades. The goal was to tame a soaring inflation rate, and thankfully, it worked, so the Fed has now cut interest rates six times since September 2024.

    That isn’t fast enough for President Donald Trump, though, who regularly calls for the Fed to cut rates more quickly to bring relief to homeowners. However, he might have found a workaround, as last Thursday, he instructed his representatives to purchase $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities (MBSes). These bonds hold thousands of mortgages and are sold to investors.

    As is the case with all bonds, a sudden flurry of buying activity will increase the price of each MBS, while decreasing its yield. A lower yield, in theory, will translate to lower interest rates on mortgages, thus helping Trump achieve his goal without help from the Fed.

    Federal Housing Finance Director Bill Pulte said government-controlled enterprises Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) will carry out the $200 billion in MBS purchases in the public market.

    Image source: Getty Images.

    Existing home sales in the U.S. are currently hovering near a five-year low, and according to Redfin, there were 529,770 more sellers than buyers in November. Elevated interest rates have reduced the borrowing capacity of first-time home buyers, shutting many of them out of the market.

    Additionally, many existing homeowners are locked into 30-year mortgages at significantly lower interest rates than what is currently available, so even if they wanted to upgrade or downsize, moving isn’t a financially sound decision at this time. That takes even more would-be buyers out of the market. It’s very hard for real estate brokers to deliver sales in this environment, especially at favorable prices.

    US Existing Home Sales Chart
    US Existing Home Sales data by YCharts

    Douglas Elliman (NYSE: DOUG) is America’s fifth-largest real estate brokerage company, but it’s one of the leaders in luxury markets in California, Florida, New York, Texas, and more. It was founded in 1911, so it has over a century of experience navigating the peaks and troughs of the housing market.

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  • Metro Denver’s housing crunch hits home for residents of Sheridan RV park that will close

    An RV park in Sheridan that has accommodated low-cost housing for decades will close to make way for a new apartment complex, leaving dozens of residents looking for new places as Colorado remains short on affordable housing and such alternatives as mobile home communities.

    The Sheridan City Council in November approved rezoning the 16-acre Flying Saucer RV Park at the intersection of West Hampden Avenue and South Bryant Street. Indiana-based Garrett Companies will submit plans to the city for a seven-building, 362-unit complex, replacing the 162 spots for recreational vehicles and tiny homes.

    Garrett and the family that has owned the property for 75 years are expected to close the deal by the end of June. Residents will have to move out by then.

    The developer and the family haven’t disclosed the financial terms.

    Anne Whipple, part of the fourth generation of the family to run the business, told Sheridan council members that the decision to sell the property wasn’t made lightly. She read a statement saying the family struggled with ending its legacy of “providing a safe, quiet community for tenants that the City of Sheridan has come to know.”

    But Whipple said the time, cost and energy to keep the park going are unsustainable. The park’s owner, 94-year-old Lucille Tourney, wants “to release her family from this burden,” she added.

    After learning last summer that the site was for sale and being eyed for new development, Steve Ohlfest started a website to rally support for saving Flying Saucer. Ohlfest, a 21-year park resident, urged people to turn out for public meetings on the project. He even contacted area mobile home park owners to gauge their interest in the property.

    Now, Ohlfest and his wife, Tina, aren’t sure where their next home will be. Just a handful of RV parks in metro Denver allow year-round living and their rates are generally higher. The Ohlfests are 16th on a waiting list for a spot in Loveland where they could move their tiny home. A Woodland Park site that caters to tiny homes hasn’t had anyone leave in five years.

    A community in Montrose that accepts tiny homes is a possibility for them. They expect to pay thousands of dollars to haul their 26,000-pound home and other belongings to the Western Slope if they move there.

    “What are our other options? We can’t afford a house in Denver,” Ohlfest said.

    Garrett Companies said it will hire a consultant to work with individual Flying Saucer residents who need help moving their recreational vehicles, finding a place to live or applying for housing and social services. The company said in December that residents should hear from the consultant after the first of the year.

    “The intent is to do right by people, particularly people of lesser means and people who are older,” said Cary Brazeman, a spokesman for Garrett.

    Meredith Long has rented a spot at Flying Saucer for three years, living in a travel trailer part of the year and moving it to Steamboat Springs where she runs a business during the winter. Long said park residents include people who travel back and forth from other homes, retirees and disabled veterans who’ve lived there for several years.

    Several have turned the park that runs along Bear Creek and has tree-lined roads into long-term homes with fenced yards and outdoor decks.

    “They kept trying to say it is temporary housing and never meant to be permanent, but that’s not how they operated it,” Long said of the park’s owners.

    The room was packed for an October Sheridan planning commission meeting on the project, Long said. After the planning commission recommended that the city council approve the rezoning, she said turnout for the meetings dropped because people felt defeated.

    Flying Saucer RV Park in Sheridan, Colorado on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025. (Photo by Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post)

    “For me it’s just been the process that’s been the most frustrating, with the lack of communication and transparency from the city of Sheridan,” Long said.

    The park owners haven’t kept residents informed either, she added. People are uneasy after a couple of tenants were served eviction notices in the last few months, Long said.

    Whipple, the onsite manager at Flying Saucer, declined to talk to The Denver Post about Long’s concerns. She told the city council in the November meeting that 40 of the park’s spots were vacant.

    “There have been several people who have left without paying rent, leaving us with significant expenses,” Whipple said.

    City officials said they’ve kept in touch with Flying Saucer residents while considering the development plans. The city held a neighborhood meeting in June on the proposed rezoning. Notices of the planning commission and city council meetings were sent to property owners and residents within 300 feet of the RV park, including the individual RV spots.

    Notice was published in the Littleton Independent newspaper and signs in English and Spanish were posted on the property, according to the city.

    Home sweet home?

    Sheridan Community Development Director Andrew Rogge said the Garrett Companies’ rezoning application met city criteria and was consistent with the goals of the city’s comprehensive plan. He said rezoning the property from business/light industrial to planned unit development will make the site more compatible with surrounding properties, which include the River Point at Sheridan shopping center.

    And Rogge noted that a 2025 housing needs assessment showed Sheridan is short of 309 units and will need 409 more units over the next 10 years.

    Rents for the apartments that will replace the RV park will be market-rate. Rogge said in an email that Sheridan doesn’t have an ordinance requiring the developer to build a certain number of affordable housing units.

    However, city officials said two affordable housing projects were recently approved. One development will add 149 apartment units. A Habitat for Humanity project will add 63 single-family homes.

    The U.S. Census Bureau reported in 2024 that Sheridan’s median household income was $58,571 and the poverty rate was 13.5%. The statewide median household income was $97,113 and the poverty rate was 9.6%.

    A Garrett representative said during the June neighborhood meeting that rents for its apartments would likely range from $1,600 to $2,600.

    “I couldn’t afford your apartment and I make good money,” Councilman Ernie Camacho.told Garrett representatives during the council meeting.

    Camacho, the lone vote against rezoning the RV park, voiced support for more single-family homes rather than apartments.

    The council members who favored rezoning said they cared about the fate of the RV park’s residents, but respected the owner’s right to sell the property. They also said the limited terms of the leases underscored that the park wasn’t intended to be a permanent home.

    Whipple said when the family decided in 2024 to put the property on the market, they let new tenants know the leases would be capped at six months. Before then, leases were month to month but didn’t have a maximum term.

    Dawn Shepherd of Littleton urged the city council to reject the rezoning application. The former director of the Englewood Housing Authority said Sheridan has typically tried to provide housing for lower-income residents.

    Judith Kohler

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  • Research Reports & Trade Ideas – Yahoo Finance

    Daily Spotlight: Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.4%

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    Daily Spotlight: Global Stocks Were Leaders in 2025

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  • The tax implications of moving to Québec – MoneySense

    Two tax systems

    Unlike other parts of Canada, you file two tax returns when you live in Québec: a federal tax return with the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and a provincial tax return with Revenu Québec. 

    In addition to a federal T1 tax return, you file a provincial TP1 tax return. This alone can add complexity and, in many cases, higher accounting costs—especially if you have a business, significant investment income, or multiple sources of income.

    Québec tax rates

    The tax rates in Québec are relatively high compared to other provinces. This is noticeable particularly at lower- and middle-income levels. The gap tends to narrow at higher incomes, but taxpayers can expect to pay more in Québec than the rates payable in Ontario or western provinces. 

    For example, at $75,000 of taxable income, a Québec resident would pay about $17,000 of tax, ignoring tax deductions or credits. In Ontario, that same taxpayer would pay about $13,600 of tax. In Alberta, it would be roughly $14,100. 

    Tax credits and social programs for families

    Like other parts of Canada, there are province-specific credits and programs that apply. Two appealing ones for families are the Québec Parental Insurance Plan (QPIP) and subsidized daycare program.

    The QPIP replaces federal employment insurance (EI) parent benefits by providing income to parents after the birth or adoption of a child. It is more generous and flexible, and administered through payroll. 

    Income Tax Guide for Canadians

    Deadlines, tax tips and more

    Licensed daycare centres offer heavily subsidized care with a flat fee of about $10 per day. 

    Child benefits—the Allocation familiale (Québec Family Allowance)—is integrated with the Canada Child Benefit (CCB). Québec residents receive a lower CCB in recognition of the provincial benefits provided in that province. The combined total is comparable to what a parent would receive in other provinces. 

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    Québec Pension Plan for retirees

    The Québec Pension Plan (QPP) complements the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) for retiree pension benefits. Just like an employee or self-employed person in other parts of Canada pays CPP premiums, a Québec worker pays QPP premiums. The two programs coordinate benefits, including retirement pensions. 

    If you worked in both Québec and elsewhere in Canada, and apply for your pension while living outside Québec, you apply to the CPP. If you always worked in Québec but live outside of Québec in retirement, you apply to the QPP with Retraite Québec. 

    Expatriates who retire outside of Canada apply to the Retraite Québec if the last province they lived in was Québec; otherwise, they apply for CPP with Service Canada. 

    Sales tax

    Québec sales tax includes both the federal Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the Québec Sales Tax (QST), as opposed to the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) that applies in some other provinces. 

    QST may apply to some goods and services that are exempt from GST, so there can be some differences versus other provinces. 

    Companies providing services or selling goods in the province of Québec may need to register for and charge QST, despite living and generally operating outside of Québec. 

    Language requirements

    The provincial government and Revenu Québec operate primarily in French, though some English options may be available. This can result in another layer of administration for some taxpayers who are not bilingual. 

    Timing rule

    Like other provinces, your province of residency is determined by where you live on December 31 of the tax year. So, even if you move to or from Québec on December 30, the final day of the calendar year is what determines your tax filing requirements. There is no proration for the year. 

    Jason Heath, CFP

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  • How much is your home really worth? – MoneySense

    That confusion comes down to two different measures: market price and appraised value. While they sound similar, they serve different purposes and can vary widely. Understanding the difference helps you make better decisions when selling, refinancing, renovating, or dealing with legal and tax matters.

    Market price vs. appraised value

    The market price of your home is what a buyer will pay for it today. It can shift quickly since it’s driven by factors such as:

    • Demand in the specific neighbourhood
    • Competing offers or bidding-war situations
    • Buyer emotions, urgency, and fear of missing out (FOMO)
    • Interest rates and affordability

    In fast-moving markets like Toronto and Vancouver, the market price can change from week to week, or even sometimes day to day.

    In contrast, appraised value is designed to be steady and defensible. It answers one key question: Based on recent evidence, what is this home worth in the current market? Rather than considering emotion or competition, an appraiser focuses on:

    • Recent nearby sales
    • Property size, layout, and condition
    • Number of bedrooms and bathrooms
    • Quality and relevance of renovations
    • Finishes and fitments of the property
    • Overall quality of workmanship
    • Neighbourhood trends
    • Lot size, zoning, and external influences
    • Basement finishes
    • Parking and/or garage

    Banks, lawyers, courts, and the CRA rely on appraisals since they’re unbiased and consistent, even when market sentiment is volatile.

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    Answer a few quick questions to get a personalized quote, whether you’re buying, renewing or refinancing.

    Why don’t market and appraisal value always match?

    It’s not uncommon for appraisals to come in lower (or occasionally higher) than the market price. Here are some of the most common reasons why.

    1. Buyers don’t always make decisions based on logic

    People fall in love with homes, they get attached, they get competitive, and they get tired of losing bidding wars. All of this can result in making an unrealistic offer on a property that doesn’t depict what’s actually happening in the market. 

    A buyer who’s fed up or emotionally invested might pay well above what recent sales support. An appraiser cannot use a one-off emotional purchase to justify the final value.

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    2. Appraisers steer past active listings

    Homeowners often compare their home to what others are asking for down the street. But list prices are just that—prices that someone hopes to get. Some listings sell for less than list price, some sell for more, and some never sell at all.

    Appraisers focus only on sold data because it reflects actual behaviour, not speculation.

    3. Renovations don’t always add dollar-for-dollar value

    This is one of the most common misunderstandings. You might spend $70,000 on a new kitchen, but the market might only value that upgrade at $25,000 to $40,000. Landscaping and high-end finishes often have even lower returns.

    Appraisers measure value based on how the market reacts to upgrades, not how much they cost you.

    4. Timing can shift value quickly

    Values can change even within the same month based on what’s happening in the market and wider economy. For example, a rate announcement might push buyers in or out of the market, a sudden spike in listings could cool prices, or seasonal patterns (like a December lull or summer slowdown) could reduce activity. 

    Appraisers capture a snapshot of the market at a very specific moment.

    5. Unique homes are difficult to compare

    A one-of-a-kind home like a heritage property, custom build, or oversized lot might attract a buyer willing to pay a premium simply because they love it. But an appraiser must look at the broader market. If there aren’t many comparable sales, their valuation will naturally be more conservative.

    6. Homeowners often overestimate their home’s value

    This is completely understandable—you are emotionally attached to your home and online valuation tools or old sales prices can set unrealistic expectations. Appraisals strip out emotion and focus only on evidence.

    Tejveer S. Walia, P.App, CRA

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  • $524,000 annual salary needed to buy median-priced home in this Bay Area county

    It is no secret living in the Bay Area comes with a high price tag.

    A new report from the California Association of Realtors solidifies what is already known about the region’s pricey real estate. The association reports anyone wanting to buy a median-priced home in San Mateo County will need to earn more than half a million dollars a year — $524,000 to be exact.

    Yep, just over half a mil to purchase on the Peninsula. The minimum qualifying amount for a median-priced home in Santa Clara County goes down a notch to the tune of $482,400 annually.

    In San Francisco, one would need to make just north of $400,000 a year.

    The association said those staggering numbers are the result of the Bay Area’s unique mix of high tech salaries and low housing inventory.

    Business and tech reporter Scott Budman examines the latest numbers and what is fueling the rising prices. Watch his report in the video above.

    Scott Budman and Kristofer Noceda

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  • Big Tech’s fast-expanding plans for data centers run into stiff community opposition

    SPRING CITY, Pa. — Tech companies and developers looking to plunge billions of dollars into ever-bigger data centers to power artificial intelligence and cloud computing are increasingly losing fights in communities where people don’t want to live next to them, or even near them.

    Communities across the United States are reading about — and learning from — each other’s battles against data center proposals that are fast multiplying in number and size to meet steep demand as developers branch out in search of faster connections to power sources.

    In many cases, municipal boards are trying to figure out whether energy- and water-hungry data centers fit into their zoning framework. Some have entertained waivers or tried to write new ordinances. Some don’t have zoning.

    But as more people hear about a data center coming to their community, once-sleepy municipal board meetings in farming towns and growing suburbs now feature crowded rooms of angry residents pressuring local officials to reject the requests.

    “Would you want this built in your backyard?” Larry Shank asked supervisors last month in Pennsylvania’s East Vincent Township. “Because that’s where it’s literally going, is in my backyard.”

    A growing number of proposals are going down in defeat, sounding alarms across the data center constellation of Big Tech firms, real estate developers, electric utilities, labor unions and more.

    Andy Cvengros, who helps lead the data center practice at commercial real estate giant JLL, counted seven or eight deals he’d worked on in recent months that saw opponents going door-to-door, handing out shirts or putting signs in people’s yards.

    “It’s becoming a huge problem,” Cvengros said.

    Data Center Watch, a project of 10a Labs, an AI security consultancy, said it is seeing a sharp escalation in community, political and regulatory disruptions to data center development.

    Between April and June alone, its latest reporting period, it counted 20 proposals valued at $98 billion in 11 states that were blocked or delayed amid local opposition and state-level pushback. That amounts to two-thirds of the projects it was tracking.

    Some environmental and consumer advocacy groups say they’re fielding calls every day, and are working to educate communities on how to protect themselves.

    “I’ve been doing this work for 16 years, worked on hundreds of campaigns I’d guess, and this by far is the biggest kind of local pushback I’ve ever seen here in Indiana,” said Bryce Gustafson of the Indianapolis-based Citizens Action Coalition.

    In Indiana alone, Gustafson counted more than a dozen projects that lost rezoning petitions.

    For some people angry over steep increases in electric bills, their patience is thin for data centers that could bring still-higher increases.

    Losing open space, farmland, forest or rural character is a big concern. So is the damage to quality of life, property values or health by on-site diesel generators kicking on or the constant hum of servers. Others worry that wells and aquifers could run dry.

    Lawsuits are flying — both ways — over whether local governments violated their own rules.

    Big Tech firms Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Facebook — which are collectively spending hundreds of billions of dollars on data centers across the globe — didn’t answer Associated Press questions about the effect of community pushback.

    Microsoft, however, has acknowledged the difficulties. In an October securities filing, it listed its operational risks as including “community opposition, local moratoriums, and hyper-local dissent that may impede or delay infrastructure development.”

    Even with high-level support from state and federal governments, the pushback is having an impact.

    Maxx Kossof, vice president of investment at Chicago-based developer The Missner Group, said developers worried about losing a zoning fight are considering selling properties once they secure a power source — a highly sought-after commodity that makes a proposal far more viable and valuable.

    “You might as well take chips off the table,” Kossof said. “The thing is you could have power to a site and it’s futile because you might not get the zoning. You might not get the community support.”

    Some in the industry are frustrated, saying opponents are spreading falsehoods about data centers — such as polluting water and air — and are difficult to overcome.

    Still, data center allies say they are urging developers to engage with the public earlier in the process, emphasize economic benefits, sow good will by supporting community initiatives and talk up efforts to conserve water and power and protect ratepayers.

    “It’s definitely a discussion that the industry is having internally about, ‘Hey, how do we do a better job of community engagement?’” said Dan Diorio of the Data Center Coalition, a trade association that includes Big Tech firms and developers.

    Winning over local officials, however, hasn’t translated to winning over residents.

    Developers pulled a project off an October agenda in the Charlotte suburb of Matthews, North Carolina, after Mayor John Higdon said he informed them it faced unanimous defeat.

    The project would have funded half the city’s budget and developers promised environmentally friendly features. But town meetings overflowed, and emails, texts and phone calls were overwhelmingly opposed, “999 to one against,” Higdon said.

    Had council approved it, “every person that voted for it would no longer be in office,” the mayor said. “That’s for sure.”

    In Hermantown, a suburb of Duluth, Minnesota, a proposed data center campus several times larger than the Mall of America is on hold amid challenges over whether the city’s environmental review was adequate.

    Residents found each other through social media and, from there, learned to organize, protest, door-knock and get their message out.

    They say they felt betrayed and lied to when they discovered that state, county, city and utility officials knew about the proposal for an entire year before the city — responding to a public records request filed by the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy — released internal emails that confirmed it.

    “It’s the secrecy. The secrecy just drives people crazy,” said Jonathan Thornton, a realtor who lives across a road from the site.

    Documents revealing the extent of the project emerged days before a city rezoning vote in October. Mortenson, which is developing it for a Fortune 50 company that it hasn’t named, says it is considering changes based on public feedback and that “more engagement with the community is appropriate.”

    Rebecca Gramdorf found out about it from a Duluth newspaper article, and immediately worried that it would spell the end of her six-acre vegetable farm.

    She found other opponents online, ordered 100 yard signs and prepared for a struggle.

    “I don’t think this fight is over at all,” Gramdorf said.

    ___

    Follow Marc Levy on X at https://x.com/timelywriter.

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  • Research Reports & Trade Ideas – Yahoo Finance

    Daily Spotlight: Stocks Typically Start Strong

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  • Research Reports & Trade Ideas – Yahoo Finance

    Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term

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  • China Vanke’s near-default exposes fragility of the faltering recovery in the property industry

    HONG KONG — State-backed property developer China Vanke, once the country’s largest homebuilder by sales, narrowly avoided defaulting on a 2 billion yuan ($284 million) bond last week as the painfully slow recovery in China’s property market drags on.

    The Chinese developer also was seeking to delay repayment of another 3.7 billion yuan ($530 million) of onshore debt due on Dec. 28, with bondholders agreeing to extend the deadline to February.

    Years after the downturn in the housing market began, Chinese developers are still struggling to regain their footing, despite a slew of government policies meant to revive the industry. Weak investment and housing prices have shaken investor confidence, spilling into the broader economy since millions of homeowners are stuck with apartments worth far less than what they paid for them.

    Instead of the huge driver of prosperity that it once was, the property market is weighing on the economy.

    Although Vanke’s bondholders have approved extensions for repayments of its debt, the risk of a default remains.

    About a third-owned by Shenzhen Metro, a state-owned railway, publicly listed Vanke’s finances are a mess. Its revenue fell 27% from a year earlier in the latest July-September quarter, and several of its onshore bonds were suspended from trading after prices plunged.

    The developer owes more than $50 billion, less than the more than $300 billion in debt racked up by China Evergrande, one of the first property dominos to fall when it defaulted in 2021 after the government cracked down on excessive borrowing in the industry.

    Analysts say Vanke, founded in the 1980s in the southern boomtown of Shenzhen, may be testing the limits of state support for property developers in reviving the industry, which once accounted for more than a quarter of total economic activities in China.

    More than four years after the downturn began, China’s property sector has yet to recover. The situation varies from city to city, but overall home prices have fallen by 20% or more from their peak in 2021.

    The decline has continued, with new home sales falling 11.2% by value year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, according to official statistics. Property investments fell nearly 16% from a year earlier.

    The slump has caused massive layoffs, hurting overall consumer confidence and spending.

    “The continued slide in the property market remains one of the most significant risks to China’s efforts to shift to a domestically demand-driven growth model,” wrote Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, in a recent commentary.

    China Evergrande, once deemed “too big to fail” as one of the country’s largest developers, ran into trouble in 2021 and eventually was forced into liquidation. Many other Chinese developers also defaulted and in some cases were restructured. Tough measures to fight Covid-19 during the pandemic took a toll as construction projects were suspended.

    Restoring confidence in the property sector may take years, economists at Morgan Stanley say, and Vanke’s woes will only further weigh on its real estate market outlook. Economists at Morningstar say home prices are unlikely to rebound until 2027 due to excess supply, despite repeated pledges by regulators to stabilize the real estate market.

    While Vanke’s debt is way smaller than Evergrande’s was, a default would sting: It had been considered one of the financially sounder real estate developers in China.

    Shenzhen Metro Group, which is controlled by the Shenzhen government, has provided more than 29 billion yuan ($4 billion) in shareholder loans to Vanke so far this year to help with its debt repayments, according to S&P Global.

    That’s not enough to repay its full obligations. Vanke reported 60 billion yuan ($8 billion) of cash by the end of September 2025, against short-term debts of about 151 billion yuan ($21 billion), Fitch Ratings said.

    “This is one of the most significant, quasi state-backed developers that may be defaulting (on) their repayment,” said Foreky Wong, a founding partner at Fortune Ark Restructuring.

    S&P Global, one of the world’s main rating agencies, recently downgraded Vanke to “selective default,” saying it viewed the extension of its bond repayment period as a distressed debt restructuring “tantamount to a default.” Fitch Ratings also downgraded Vanke’s rating to “restricted default”.

    Vanke — which employed more than 120,000 people as of last year — still faces hundreds of millions of dollars more of debt repayments in 2026. S&P said it faces more than 9.4 billion yuan of bonds maturing over the next six months.

    A default by Vanke could spill over into the wider real estate sector, making it more difficult for non-state owned developers to get help, said Jeff Zhang, an analyst at Morningstar.

    “Without a strong commitment by the Shenzhen government on the bailout, we think Vanke’s liquidity profile should remain fragile,” Zhang said.

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  • Research Reports & Trade Ideas – Yahoo Finance

    Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term

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