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Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management says the country has allowed its property sector, now the “most speculative sector in China,” to run “unabated.”
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Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management says the country has allowed its property sector, now the “most speculative sector in China,” to run “unabated.”
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Showcasing the height of new luxury construction in some of the world’s most sought-after locations, let’s explore an exclusive new development from our worldwide network.
Houston, Texas | Martha Turner Sotheby’s International Realty
Patiently held in reserve for 70 years, 1661 Tanglewood builds upon the founding Farrington-Miller family tradition of bold vision. Accommodating every comfort of urban high rise living, these mansions in the sky offer interiors of exceptional character, generous proportions and a considered lifestyle.
The building welcomes residents through a grand entrance with a guardhouse. Residents and visitors are attended by full-time door and lobby staff. Across the expansive ground floor, rich amenity spaces set the tone.
The spaces are defined by marble pilasters, bas-reliefs, custom upholstery by Rose Tarlow, a bespoke crystal chandelier, and a curated mix of rare antiques. Impeccable marble, onyx and hardwoods extend all the way through the elevator lobby. Every detail, every finish and every element show thoughtful curation for timeless effect.
Discover luxury developments represented by Sotheby’s International Realty around the world
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Melissa Couch
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NEW YORK — Credit Karma is probably best known for giving Americans regular access to their credit scores, but the San Francisco-based company also acts as a starting place to shop for a loan, bank account or mortgage.
Roughly 76 million Americans have used Credit Karma, giving the company a broad view into Americans’ borrowing habits.
CEO Ken Lin spoke to The Associated Press about what financial products borrowers are still shopping for in this high inflation economy, as well as Americans’ spending habits.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Q: What have you seen in credit card activity in recent months as Americans deal with high inflation and economic uncertainty?
A: Unemployment continues to be relatively low. What we’ve been seeing is a lot of origination happening in credit cards. The other unique phenomenon is while interest rates go up, the large banks are still trying to be competitive. They’re able to do a lot of lending in this environment. Consumer spending is going great. Americans still have historically lower credit card balances, and while they are building up those balances again, it’s still healthy.
Q: Mortgage rates have gone up considerably, and we have seen mortgage activity decrease. What are you seeing?
A: Most of the mortgage market is refinancing. Nobody is refinancing right now because the prevailing rate for many mortgages for so many years was 3% or 4%. Now we’re at 7%. You’re not really going refinance to get a higher rate.
What we have seen is a much larger number of people are going into home equity lines of credit or home equity loans. People are finding that more economical. Unless you’re really desperate, you’re not going to do a cash out refinance.
Q: Higher interest rates can mean higher yields on savings accounts, but banks for some time did not need additional deposits so they weren’t paying for them. Are they still dragging their heels?
A: I think this is an opportunity for most consumers to really be more cognizant, more thoughtful around their finances, because we assume when rates are going up, that the money in our savings accounts is going up, and that’s generally not the case. You really need to push your bank to offer you that higher yield, or even open a new account elsewhere.
Q: What are your thoughts on the growth of buy now, pay later loans?
A: I think it’s a little bit of a dangerous space. One of the nice things about the traditional credit industry is they are able to calculate and understand how much debt you have relative to the amount of income you earn. There’s no such visibility into buy now, pay later products. You can take out one loan with multiple companies and none of them would know, which I think makes it easy for borrowers to get in over their heads.
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A look at some of the key business events and economic indicators upcoming this week:
SPOTLIGHT ON DELL
Dell Technologies reports its latest quarterly snapshot Monday.
Wall Street predicts the computer and technology services -company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings fell compared with the same period last year. That would echo the company’s results in its previous two quarters. Investors will be listening for an update on how Dell’s personal computer sales trends are faring heading into the holiday shopping season.
ANOTHER DOWNBEAT QUARTER?
Best Buy has been struggling this year amid weakening consumer demand and rising costs due to supply chain disruptions.
The nation’s consumer electronics chain has posted lower quarterly profits and revenue through the first half of its current fiscal year, which began in February, as consumers have reined in spending on electronics amid sharply higher prices for necessities like food and gas. Wall Street expects the economic trends continued to weigh on Best Buy in the third quarter. The company serves up its quarterly results Tuesday.
HOUSING BAROMETER
The Commerce Department releases its October tally of new U.S. home sales Wednesday.
Economists project that sales slowed last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 572,500 homes. Sales were running at an annual rate of 603,000 homes in September. The housing market has cooled after a strong start to the year as sharply higher mortgage rates have made homeownership less affordable for many would-be buyers.
New home sales, seasonally adjusted annual rate, by month:
May 636,000
June 571,000
July 543,000
Aug. 677,000
Sept. 603,000
Oct. (est.) 572,500
Source: FactSet
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China’s housing prices fell in October due primarily to falling prices in less developed, so-called Tier-3 cities, according to Goldman Sachs analysis of official data.
Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s real estate sector isn’t yet poised for a quick recovery, despite a rally this month in stocks of major property developers.
That’s because recent support by Beijing don’t directly resolve the main problem of falling home sales and prices, analysts say.
Last week, property developer stocks surged after news the central bank and banking regulator issued measures that encouraged banks to help the real estate industry. It comes alongside other support measures earlier this month.
Shares of Country Garden, the biggest Chinese developer by sales, have more than doubled in November, and those of Longfor have surged by about 90%. The stocks have already given back some of this month’s gains.
Meanwhile, iron ore futures surged by about 16% this month — Morgan Stanley analysts say about 40% of China’s steel consumption is used in property construction.
The situation is one of “strong expectations, but weak reality,” and market prices have deviated from the fundamentals, Sheng Mingxing, ferrous metals analyst at Nanhua Research Institute, said in Chinese translated by CNBC.
Sheng said it’s important to watch whether apartments can be completed and delivered during the peak construction period of March and April.
This really is a temporary relief in terms of the developers having to meet less debt repayment needs in the near future…
The new measures, widely reported in China but not officially released, stipulate loan extensions, call for treating developers the same whether they are state-owned or not and support bond issuance. Neither regulator responded to CNBC’s request for comment.
“This really is a temporary relief in terms of the developers having to meet less debt repayment needs in the near future — a temporary liquidity relief rather than a fundamental turnaround,” Hong Kong-based analyst Samuel Hui, director, Asia-Pacific corporates, Fitch Ratings, said Wednesday.
“The key is that we still need the fundamental underlying home sales market to improve,” he said, noting homebuyer confidence relies on whether developers can finish building and delivering apartments.
Earlier this year, many homebuyers refused to continue paying mortgages on apartments when construction was delayed. Homes in China are typically sold ahead of completion, generating a major source of cash flow for developers.
Analysts differ on when China’s property market can recover.
Fitch said a timeline “remains highly uncertain,” while S&P Global Ratings’ Senior Director Lawrence Lu expects a recovery could occur in the second half of next year.
“If this policy is implemented promptly, this will stop the downward spiral to the developers, this will help to restore the investors’ confidence [in] the developers,” he said.
Residential housing sales for the first 10 months of the year dropped by 28.2% from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said last week. S&P Global Ratings said in July it expects a 30% plunge in sales for 2022, worse than in 2008 when sales fell by about 20%.
A slowdown in economic growth, uncertainty about ongoing Covid controls and worries about future income have dampened appetite for buying homes.
Adding to those worries are falling prices.
Housing prices across 70 cities fell by 1.4% in October from a year ago, according to Goldman Sachs analysis of data released Wednesday.
“Despite more local housing easing measures in recent months,” the analysts said, “we believe the property markets in lower-tier cities still face strong headwinds from weaker growth fundamentals than large cities, including net population outflows and potential oversupply problems.”
The report said housing prices in the largest, tier-1 cities rose by 3.1% in October from September, while Tier-3 cities saw a 3.9% drop during that time.
About two years ago, Beijing began to crack down on developers’ high reliance on debt for growth. The country’s most indebted developer, Evergrande, defaulted late last year in a high-profile debt crisis that rattled investor confidence.
Worries about other real estate companies’ ability to repay their debt have since spread to once-healthy developers.
Trading in shares of Evergrande, Kaisa and Shimao is still suspended.
While Covid controls have dragged down China’s growth this year, the real estate market’s struggles have also contributed significantly.
The property sector, including related industries, accounts for about a quarter of China’s GDP, according to analyst estimates.
“I think the real estate sector will become lesser of a drag to the economy in 2023,” Tommy Wu, senior China economist at Commerzbank AG, said Wednesday.
“It is too early to tell whether the measures rolled out so far will be enough to rescue the real estate sector,” he said. “But it feels more assuring now because it seems more likely that more forceful measures will be rolled out if the real estate downturn still doesn’t turn around meaningful in the coming months.”
Ultimately, China’s real estate industry is undergoing a state-directed transformation — to a smaller part of the economy and a business model far less reliant on selling apartments before they’re completed.
The property market has shrunk by roughly one-third compared to last year, and will likely remain the same size next year, S&P’s Lu said.
State-owned developers have fared better during the downturn, he pointed out.
In the first three quarters of the year, Lu said sales by state-owned developers fell by 25%, compared to the 58% sales decline for developers not owned by the state.
And despite recent policy moves, Beijing’s stance remains firm in dissuading home purchases at scale.
Whether it’s messaging from the National Bureau of Statistics or the People’s Bank of China, official announcements this month reiterated that houses are for living in, not speculation — the mantra that marked the early beginnings of the real estate market slump.
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Whether it’s the setting for a festive formal fête or a casual weeknight meal, the dining room is a key space in every modern home. From Fifth Avenue to the hills above the Napa Valley, these spaces encourage everyone to gather at the table in style.
Hillary Ryan | Sotheby’s International Realty – St. Helena Brokerage
This 11.5-acre wine country estate on a secluded hillside includes a four-bedroom home, a two-bedroom guesthouse, two swimming pools, a sports court, multiple outdoor entertaining areas, and its own vineyard. The main residence features a primary suite with a spa-like bath, two offices—one with a wet bar—a media room, a wine cellar, a fitness room, a chic living room, and an adjoining dining room with a vaulted ceiling, plentiful windows, and glass doors to a sunny terrace with commanding views of the valley.
Mary Lou Castellanos | Sotheby’s International Realty – San Francisco Brokerage
The regal estate known as the Hampton House was conceived by architect Albert L. Farr in 1928, has been expanded over the ensuing decades, and has been meticulously modernized by the current owners. The 11,150-square-foot three-level residence offers abundant spaces for stylish living and entertaining, including eight bedrooms; living, game, and media rooms; and a stately formal dining room with hardwood floors and an eye-catching chandelier. The impressive one-acre grounds encompass expansive patios, rolling lawns, a tennis court, and a guesthouse.
Leslie McElwreath | Sotheby’s International Realty – Greenwich Brokerage
Built in 1710, this distinctive Napoleon III-style residence offers a unique blend of period details and modern appointments and amenities. The 8,077-square-foot floor plan boasts six bedrooms and both formal and informal spaces for living and entertaining, among them a gourmet kitchen with an adjoining family room, a living room with a fireplace, a butler’s pantry with a wet bar and a wine chiller, and a chic dining room with French doors to the wraparound covered porch and walls that echo the enveloping greenery.
Sheila Ellis | Sotheby’s International Realty – East Side Manhattan Brokerage
No detail has been overlooked in the painstaking renovation of this grand 16-room residence on the third floor of its 1928 Frederick French–designed building. On the corner of 82nd Street and Fifth Avenue, it gazes out toward the Metropolitan Museum of Art and regal neighboring townhouses. Its generously proportioned floor plan features a luxurious primary suite, five guest bedrooms, a chef’s kitchen, a magnificent living room, a library, and adjoining the kitchen, a spacious formal dining room with an elegant chandelier.
Discover luxury homes for sale and rent around the world on sothebysrealty.com
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Melissa Couch
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The holiday season is finally upon us, and with it comes the return to beloved traditions and holiday cheer.
For many, that means rewatching the 1983 film A Christmas Story, a quintessential Christmas classic that follows the adorable Ralphie Parker on his quest to get the toy of his dreams.
Now fans of the movie can buy a piece of cinematic history, as the home where the Parkers lived just hit the real estate market in Cleveland.
Located at 3159 West 11th Street, the yellow house with green shutters and trim has since been turned into a museum estimated to bring in over $1 million each year, allowing Christmas Story fans and customers to tour the rooms and step right into the film.
“I’m looking for the right buyer,” the current owner Brian Jones told WKYC Cleveland. “It’s something you not only own but that you have to take care of.”
The property sits on 1.3 acres and boasts an entire museum and gift shop, a separate rental property, a parking lot for guests and visitors, and the neighboring house that served as the Bumpus’ home in the film (The Parker’s neighbors.)
According to Zillow, the actual Parker house is valued at around $188,000, which includes four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and 896 square feet of living space.
The property has no official listing price, but Jones says he would consider upwards of $10 million a “competitive offer.”
“This adventure has been awesome, but it’s time for something different,” Jones said about his decision to sell the property. “It’s gone so far beyond what I expected it to be.”
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Emily Rella
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With the ambition to reach 5.000 bedrooms across 11 cities by the end of 2026, Cohabs looks to initiate the next step in expansion through increased institutional support.
Press Release
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Nov 18, 2022
BRUSSELS, November 18, 2022 (Newswire.com)
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Cohabs, a Brussels-based company specializing in coliving, announces the entry into its capital of three new institutional investors: global real estate investor Ivanhoé Cambridge, Belfius Insurance, and the real estate arm of the Belgian Sovereign Fund (SFPIM – Real Estate). All the founders and historical shareholders AG Real Estate and Alphastone remain on board to fuel the growth of the company.
Founded in 2016 by four Belgian entrepreneurs — Youri Dauber, François Samyn, Malik Dauber, and Lionel Jadot — Cohabs is a fully integrated coliving platform that both owns and operates its real estate assets. They provide a unique shared housing experience through fully furnished, premium accommodations. The 50-person company has a current portfolio of 1.550 bedrooms across five cities (Brussels, Paris, New York, Madrid, and Luxembourg), with the majority of its team and assets based in Brussels.
Driven by a community-first approach, Cohabs prioritizes the experience of its members through a tech-centric and flexible process. The company is committed to limiting its impact on the environment by focusing on a global, sustainable approach. From a social standpoint, Cohabs is committed to maintaining 5% of the Belgium portfolio as solidarity bedrooms with 50% reduced rent to ensure coliving is accessible for all.
With the ambition to reach 5.000 bedrooms across 11 cities by the end of 2026, Cohabs looks to initiate the next step in expansion through increased institutional support.
This equity investment will allow investors to assist Cohabs in terms of structuring, financing, and operational growth due to their extensive resources and experience in developing high-quality real estate around the world. This will significantly strengthen Cohabs’ capital structure and increase its capacity to position itself as a major player with a focus on a sustainable coliving experience that always puts its members first.
With that in mind, this step forward is not just a win for one organization, but a major step forward for the institutionalization of the coliving industry.
Cohabs was advised on this transaction by Natixis Partners & Tandem Capital Advisors.
“From the very first meeting with Ivanhoé Cambridge, it was clear we were a good fit. They immediately understood our vision of coliving and shared our fundamental values. They have the experience, resources, and drive to help us reach the next level. Combine this dynamic with the belief and support from our historical Belgian investors and our ambition has all the fuel necessary for us to accomplish our goals. Our mission will remain the same: be the most qualitative, sustainable, and member-centric coliving company in the world.“
Youri Dauber, Founder & CEO of Cohabs.
“Cohabs offers everything we are looking for in terms of an innovative concept in an alternative asset class, which aligns with a strong and growing trend in the living sector, and we are confident the company will grow further internationally. This operation is another demonstration of Ivanhoé Cambridge’s ability to successfully close complex private equity deals, and to diversify its portfolio with alternative asset classes.“
Arnaud Malbos, Head of Investments Europe for Ivanhoé Cambridge.
“We are delighted with this important step in the life of Cohabs, which we have supported with conviction since its inception. Flexibility, agility, service and quality in addition to a strong local Belgian base: these are all assets that have undoubtedly attracted Ivanhoé Cambridge. As a top-tier financial and strategic partner, AG Real Estate is convinced that such a pool of investors can only ensure the growth and sustainability of Cohabs! Congratulations to the teams for this new milestone in their history.“
Amand-Benoît D’Hondt, Chief Alternative Investments & Sustainability Officer at AG Real Estate.
Source: Cohabs
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It’s no secret that it’s a tough market for prospective home buyers.
In October, U.S. buyers needed to earn $107,281 to afford the median monthly mortgage payment of $2,682 for a “typical home,” Redfin reported this week.
That’s 45.6% higher than the $73,668 yearly income needed to cover the median mortgage payment 12 months ago, the report finds.
The primary reason is rising mortgage interest rates, said Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage. “The bottom line is mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year,” she said.
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Despite the sharp drop reported this week, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of $647,200 or less was hovering below 7%, compared to under 3.50% at the beginning of January.
And while home values have softened in some markets, the average sales price is up from one year ago.
“Home prices have gone up substantially, mortgage rates have more than doubled and that’s just crushing affordability,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage website HSH.
Meanwhile, a higher cost of living is still cutting into Americans’ budgets, with annual inflation at 7.7% in October.
While the current conditions may feel bleak for buyers, experts say there are a few ways to reduce your monthly mortgage payment.
For example, a higher down payment means a smaller mortgage and lower monthly payments, Gumbinger explained. “More down in this sort of environment can definitely play a role in getting your mortgage cost under control,” he said.
Another option is an adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, which offers a lower initial interest rate compared to a fixed-rate mortgage. The rate later adjusts at a predetermined intervals to the market rate at that time.
An ARM may also be worth considering, as long as you understand the risks, Cohn said.
If you’re planning to stay in the home for several years, there’s a risk you won’t be able to refinance to a fixed-rate mortgage before the ARM adjusts, she said. And in a rising rate environment, it’s likely to adjust higher.
Your eligibility for a future refinance can change if your income declines or your home value drops. “That’s a greater risk, especially for a first-time homebuyer,” Cohn said.
Of course, home values and demand vary by location, which affects affordability, Gumbinger said. “Being patient and being opportunistic is a good strategy for market conditions like this,” he said.
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About Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC
Founded in 1976 to provide independent brokerages with a powerful marketing and referral program for luxury listings, the Sotheby’s International Realty network was designed to connect the finest independent real estate companies to the most prestigious clientele in the world. Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC is a subsidiary of Realogy Holdings Corp. (NYSE: RLGY), a global leader in real estate franchising and provider of real estate brokerage, relocation and settlement services. In February 2004, Realogy entered into a long-term strategic alliance with Sotheby’s, the operator of the auction house. The agreement provided for the licensing of the Sotheby’s International Realty name and the development of a full franchise system. Affiliations in the system are granted only to brokerages and individuals meeting strict qualifications. Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates LLC supports its affiliates with a host of operational, marketing, recruiting, educational and business development resources. Franchise affiliates also benefit from an association with the venerable Sotheby’s auction house, established in 1744.
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Melissa Couch
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Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell in October for the ninth month in a row to the slowest pre-pandemic sales pace in more than 10 years, as homebuyers grappled with sharply higher mortgage rates, rising home prices and fewer properties on the market.
Existing home sales fell 5.9% last month from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. The string of monthly sales declines this year is the longest on record on data going back to 1999, the NAR said.
Sales cratered 28.4% from October last year. Excluding the steep slowdown in sales that occurred in May 2020 near the start of the pandemic, sales are now at the slowest annual pace since December 2011, when the housing market was still mired in a deep slump following the foreclosure crisis of the late 2000s.
Despite the slowdown, home prices continued to climb last month, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. The national median home price rose 6.6% in October from a year earlier, to $379,100.
The median home price is now down about 8% from its peak in June, but remains 40% above where it was in October 2019, before the pandemic, said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. Since January, home prices have fallen nearly 32%, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“That’s really hurting affordability,” he said. “Most household incomes have not risen by 40%.”
House hunters had fewer properties to choose from as the inventory of homes on the market declined for the third month in a row. Some 1.22 million homes were on the market by the end of October, down 0.8% from September, the NAR said.
That amounts to 3.3 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. In a more balanced market between buyers and sellers there is a 5- to 6-month supply.
The housing market has been slowing as average long-term U.S. mortgage rates have more than doubled from a year ago, making homes less affordable.
The average rate on a 30-year home loan was 6.61% this week, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. A year ago, the average rate was 3.1%. Late last month, the average rate topped 7% for the first time since 2002.
“The plunge in sales this year has tracked the collapse in mortgage demand as affordability has deteriorated,” Pantheon chief economist Ian Shepherdson said in a report, noting that he expects residential real estate sales to slump even further.
Surging home loan rates reduce homebuyers’ purchasing power by adding hundreds of dollars to monthly mortgage payments. They also discourage homeowners who locked in an ultra-low rate the last couple of years from buying a new home. That, in turn, can limit the number of homes that are available for sale.
Mortgage rates are likely to remain a significant hurdle for would-be homebuyers for some time as the Federal Reserve has consistently signaled its intent to keep raising its short-term interest rate in its bid to squash the hottest inflation in decades.
Two weeks ago, the Fed raised its short-term lending rate by another 0.75 percentage points, three times its usual margin, for a fourth time this year. Its key rate now stands in a range of 3.75% to 4%.
While mortgage rates don’t necessarily mirror the Fed’s rate increases, they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The yield is influenced by a variety of factors, including investors’ expectations for future inflation and global demand for U.S. Treasurys.
With the number of properties on the market still relatively scarce by historical standards, sellers continue to receive multiple offers, especially for the most affordable homes where competition remains fierce.
On average, homes sold in just 21 days of hitting the market last month, up from 19 days in September, the NAR said. Before the pandemic, homes typically sold more than 30 days after being listed for sale.
For buyers, of course the ongoing slowdown in the housing market has benefits.
“Other leading indicators of home demand suggest that the housing market likely has more downside to go,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said in an email. “The low supply of homes, the demographic landscape and the continued geographic reshuffling imply that the housing market will not likely repeat the experience of the Great Financial Crisis. As the housing market cools further, median prices should decline, helping affordability levels come back into balance.”
According to Zillow, in October the monthly mortgage payment on the purchase of a typical house was $1,910. That’s up 77% from a year ago and a 107% higher — or nearly $1,000 — than in 2019.
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CNBC’s Diana Olick, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss existing home sales numbers slowing, year-over-year price declines in home sales, and the factors weighing on higher-end home buyers.
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Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell in October for the ninth month in a row, the slowest pre-pandemic sales pace in more than 10 years, as homebuyers grappled with sharply higher mortgage rates, rising home prices and fewer properties on the market.
Existing home sales fell 5.9% last month from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.
Sales fell 28.4% from October last year, and are now at the slowest annual pace since December 2011, excluding the steep slowdown in sales that occurred in May 2020 near the start of the pandemic.
The national median home price rose 6.6% in October from a year earlier, to $379,100.
House hunters had fewer properties to choose from as the inventory of homes on the market declined for the third month in a row. Some 1.22 million homes were on the market by the end of October, which amounts to 3.3 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace, NAR said.
The housing market has been slowing as average long-term U.S. mortgage rates have more than doubled from a year ago, making homes less affordable.
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The Associated Press
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The numbers: Existing-home sales fell 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Compared with October 2021, home sales were down 28.4%.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an decrease to 4.37 million units.
The level of sales is the lowest since December 2011 excluding the 2020 pandemic.
This is also the ninth straight monthly decline in sales, the longest streak on record.
Key details: The median price for an existing home was $379,100 up 6.6% from October 2021.
But price gains are decelerating. Prices were up over 20% on a year-on-year basis earlier this year.
Housing inventory fell 0.8% to 1.22 million units in October. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months a year ago.
A 6-month supply of homes is generally viewed as indicative of a balanced market.
Sales declined in all regions of the country.
Big picture: Home sales have dropped as mortgage rates have risen sharply and affordability has dropped.
Softer inflation data in October have led to a drop in mortgage rates, which could lead for a floor on sales.
At the same time, Federal Reserve officials may pencil in a “peak” interest rate above 5% at the policy meeting next month.
Economists see home prices have further to fall in this market.
What the NAR is saying: Home sales have been very low and the softness could continue for a few months. But sales could pick up early next year if the mortgage rate has peaked, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR.
Market reaction: Stocks
DJIA,
SPX,
opened lower on Friday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
rose to 3.79%.
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Home sales declined for the ninth straight month in October, as higher interest rates and surging inflation kept buyers on the sidelines.
Sales of previously owned homes dropped 5.9% from September to October, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is the slowest pace since December 2011, with the exception of a very brief drop at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The October reading put sales at a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 4.43 million units. Sales were 28.4% lower year over year.
Even as sales slow, supply is still stubbornly low. There were 1.22 million homes for sale at the end of October, an decrease of just under 1% both month to month and year over year. That’s a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace. Historically, a balanced market is considered to be a six-month supply.
The median price of an existing home sold in October was $379,100, an increase of 6.6% from the year before. The price gains, however, are shrinking, as the seasonal drop in home prices this time of year appears to be much deeper than usual.
“Inventory levels are still tight, which is why some homes for sale are still receiving multiple offers,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. “In October, 24% of homes received over the asking price. Conversely, homes sitting on the market for more than 120 days saw prices reduced by an average of 15.8%.”
A “For Sale” sign outside a house in Albany, California, on Tuesday, May 31, 2022.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Overall, homes went under contract in 21 days in October, up from 19 days in September and 18 days in October 2021. More than half, 64%, of homes sold in October 2022 were on the market for less than a month, suggesting that there is still strong demand if the home is priced right.
While sales are dropping now across all price points, they are weakening most in the $100,000 to $250,000 range and in the $1 million plus range. On the lower end, that is likely due to the severe shortage of available homes in that price range. Big losses in the stock market, as well as inflation and global economic uncertainty, may be weighing on high-end buyers.
First-time buyers, who are likely most sensitive to the increase in mortgage rates, made up just 28% of sales, down from 29% the year before. This cohort usually makes up 40% of home purchases. Investors or second-home buyers pulled back, buying just 16% of the homes sold in October compared with 17% in October 2021.
Mortgage rates are now more than double the record lows seen just at the start of this year. But recent volatility in rates is also wreaking havoc on potential buyers. Rates shot up in June, settled back in July and August, and continued even higher in September and October. Then they dropped back again pretty sharply last week.
“For many, the week-to-week volatility in mortgage rates alone, which in 2022 has been three times what was typical, may be a good reason to wait,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist with Realtor.com. “With week-to-week changes in mortgage rates causing $100+ swings in monthly housing costs for a median-priced home, it’s tough to know how to set and stick to a budget.”
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