THE BLUEPRINT:
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45% of Long Island businesses forecast growth in 2026, down from 52% last year.
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Inflation (45%) and retention of young professionals (34%) rank as top concerns.
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59% say AI will positively impact business; 51% have invested in AI tools.
Businesses on Long Island are projecting a cautious outlook for growth in 2026.
That’s according to the HIA-LI‘s “2026 Business Climate Survey” released last week. Conducted in partnership with Adelphi University and Citrin Cooperman, the survey polled an estimated 120 leaders of Long Island-based businesses across a wide range of industries.
That cautious optimism “doesn’t surprise us,” said Terri Alessi-Miceli, president and CEO of HIA-LI, introducing a panel discussion about the survey, adding that entrepreneurs “go out and fight the good fight every day.”
And, she said, “I know at least half of you said that you’re going to expand in some way. I think that’s really positive news.”
The “survey showed that in 2025, many businesses expanded more than they had anticipated, and that was a great thing to see,” said John Fitzgerald, a partner at Citrin Cooperman, who moderated the panel. “We’re seeing … a more cautious outlook for 2026.”
Forty-five percent of survey respondents forecasted growth, compared to 52 percent last year.
Kevin Santacroce, chief banking officer of ConnectOne Bank said on the panel that his team is “very optimistic about 2026.”
Looking historically “at the performance of our loan portfolios, our past-dues, we’re at all-time lows with regards to delinquencies and troubled credit,” he said. In addition, he said, viewing balance sheets, “most people are not overly leveraged.” And there’s been a stabilization in interest rates. Most client, she said, also have strong liquidity. “We see our clients pretty well-positioned,” he said.
Despite optimism in the economy, the “real estate development industry has struggled,” said Jimmy Coughlan, executive vice president and partner of Tritec. With a rise in construction costs and a period of increased interest rates, “we actually took about a five year pause on new developments outside of Station Yards.” But now, he said, “we’re finally getting optimistic again.” There is expectation of more rate cuts in the next two years, which would have “a big impact on our industry. And the housing crisis here is so acute that the demand is overwhelming,” he said.
The survey found that 59 percent expected revenue to increase by less than 10 percent or stay the same, while 14 percent expected revenue to increase by 10 percent or more. Still 14 percent expected revenue to drop by less than 10 percent, and another 13 percent expected decreases of more than 10 percent.
Of the challenges facing Long Island businesses, 45 percent cited inflation, 34 percent said retention of young professionals and families. And 8 percent said tariffs.
As for artificial intelligence, 59 percent thought it would positively impact their business, and 7 percent thought it could negatively impact business. And while 25 percent expected no effect, 79 percent said they had no plans to freeze hiring or implement a workforce reduction because of efficiencies created by AI. Meanwhile, 51 percent have made some investment into AI tools.
As for cybersecurity threats, 37 percent of respondents reported being very to extremely concerned, 45 percent were moderately to slightly concerned and 3 percent had no concerns.
When it comes to political issues, 35 percent expressed concern over partisan policy-making that influences the business environment, while 26 percent said immigration is one of most important issues facing Long Island.
Top human resources concerns for business included compensation and benefits (41 percent), retention (19 percent), workforce productivity (14 percent) and hiring (13 percent).
With government investment to facilitate growth on Long Island, 40 percent said it was needed for housing, 35 percent said transportation and infrastructure, 19 percent wanted to see more business grants or incentives while 3 percent said workforce training and education.
Additional panelists included Rich Humann, president and CEO of H2M architects + engineers; Rick Lewis, CEO of the Suffolk Y Jewish Community Center; Christopher Nelson, president of St. Catherine of Siena Hospital; and Chris Storm, interim president of Adelphi University.
Before the panel discussion, Rob Calarco, New York State assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs – Long Island, delivered a presentation of the governor’s budget proposal.
The full survey, along with insights, is available here.
Adina Genn
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