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Tag: Ray Dalio

  • At Davos 2026, the New A.I. Race Is About Execution

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    Davos 2026 revealed a clear pivot: as A.I. enters its infrastructure phase, competitive advantage hinges on governance, integration and execution. Photo by Fabrice Coffrini / AFP via Getty Images

    At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, artificial intelligence was no longer framed as an emerging technology. It was treated as infrastructure. Across panels, private dinners and side conversations, the debate had clearly shifted: the question is not whether A.I. will transform economies and institutions, but who can operationalize it at scale under tightening geopolitical and social constraints.

    Polished talking points and transactional networking were expected. Instead, the prevailing tone was unusually open and collaborative. Leaders across industry, government and investment circles engaged in candid discussions about what it actually takes to build, deploy and govern A.I. systems in the real world. 

    From breakthroughs to infrastructure

    In prior years, A.I. at Davos was often positioned as a horizon technology or a promising experiment. This year, leaders spoke about it the way they talk about energy grids or the internet: as a foundational capability that must be embedded across operations. In closed-door sessions and enterprise-focused discussions, including an Emerging Tech breakfast hosted by BCG, A.I. was consistently framed as something organizations must build into their core operating model, not test at the margins.

    Enterprise leaders stressed that A.I. can no longer live in pilots or innovation labs. It is becoming a core operating layer, reshaping workflows, governance structures and executive accountability. One panelist put it bluntly: in the future, there may not be Chief A.I. Officers, because every Chief Operating Officer will effectively be responsible for A.I. The real work now is redesigning roles, incentives and processes around systems that are always on and deeply embedded, rather than treating A.I. as a bolt-on feature.

    The rise of agentic systems

    Another notable shift was the focus on agentic A.I. systems. Instead of tools that merely assist human work, these systems are designed to plan, decide and act across entire workflows. In practical terms, that means A.I. that does more than answer questions: it can determine next steps, call other tools or services and close the loop on tasks.

    This evolution is forcing a rethink of traditional software-as-a-service models. Many founders and executives spoke about rebuilding products as A.I.-native platforms that actively run processes, rather than software that passively supports human operators. As these systems take on greater autonomy, questions of liability, oversight and human intervention are moving from the margins of product design to the center of both enterprise architecture and regulation.

    Workforce pressure and the hollowing of entry-level work

    Concerns about labor displacement were far less theoretical than in previous years. Executives spoke openly about hiring freezes and the quiet erosion of traditional entry-level roles. Routine analysis, reporting and coordination work—the tasks that used to anchor junior jobs—is precisely where A.I. systems are advancing fastest. 

    In response, reskilling is shifting from talking point to strategy. Rather than assuming A.I. capability can be “hired in,” organizations are building structured pathways to retrain existing employees into A.I.-augmented roles. A parallel trend is intrapreneurship: with experimentation costs lowered by A.I., companies are encouraging employees to propose pilots and launch internal ventures, channeling entrepreneurial energy inward instead of losing it to startups.

    Governing speed, not stopping it

    Despite the urgency to deploy A.I., some of the most grounded conversations in Davos centered on governance. These were not abstract ethics debates, but rather operational discussions about how to move quickly without creating unacceptable legal, reputational or societal risks.

    The emerging consensus has formed around what many described as “controlled speed”: rapid iteration paired with mechanisms that make systems observable and correctable in real time. Leaders described embedding governance directly into workflows through auditability, data controls, red teaming, human-in-the-loop checkpoints and clear ownership for A.I. outcomes. 

    In policy-facing sessions, including gatherings of world leaders, similar themes surfaced around embedding accountability into A.I. deployments at scale, rather than trying to slow progress from the outside.

    A.I. as a geopolitical asset and the rise of sovereign A.I.

    One of the clearest through-lines was the link between A.I. and geopolitical power. At a TCP House panel, Ray Dalio captured a widely shared view: whoever wins the technology race will win the geopolitical race. Across Davos, speakers framed A.I. capability as a determinant of national influence, economic resilience and security.

    This framing is driving a wave of sovereign A.I. initiatives. Governments are investing in domestic data centers, local model training and tighter control over critical infrastructure to reduce strategic dependency. The goal is not isolation so much as resilience, a balance between domestic capability and selective global partnerships. At the Semafor CEO Signal Exchange, for instance, Google’s Ruth Porat warned of the risk of an emerging A.I. power vacuum if the United States fails to move quickly enough, creating space for competitors to set the terms of the next era.

    For enterprises, these dynamics translate into concrete decisions around data residency, model dependency and vendor concentration in a more multipolar world.

    Diverging regional strategies

    Regional differences in A.I. strategy were hard to miss. Europe’s regulatory-first approach is shaping global norms, but many participants voiced concern that it may constrain commercial leadership. Europe is becoming a reference point for risk mitigation and rights protection, even as questions persist about whether it can also serve as the primary engine of A.I.-driven growth.

    By contrast, the United States and parts of the Middle East are advancing aggressively through coordinated policy, capital investment and large-scale infrastructure build-outs. Discussions around semiconductors, satellites and cybersecurity reinforced how tightly A.I. deployment is now coupled with national resilience and defense considerations. Regions that move fastest on infrastructure and deployment are likely to set technical, regulatory and commercial defaults that others will eventually be forced to adopt.

    Domain-specific A.I., with biohealth in front

    While general-purpose models remain central, much of the energy in Davos was focused on domain-specific A.I. Healthcare, biotechnology, energy and agriculture stood out as sectors where A.I. promises enormous value alongside heightened risk. Biohealth, in particular, was central to discussions of drug discovery, diagnostics and clinical decision support.

    Across these domains, participants stressed that success depends on deep collaboration between engineers, domain experts and regulators. Transparency, verifiability and accountability were repeatedly described as prerequisites for A.I. systems that touch public safety, critical infrastructure or social trust. In one AgriTech-focused session, for example, speakers emphasized that A.I.’s role in food security hinges as much on governance and data integrity as on optimization.

    A human signal amid rapid change

    Beyond the technical themes, the tone of Davos 2026 was striking in its human-centric nature. Panel after panel emphasized deploying A.I. in the service of humanity, not just efficiency or profit. Many speakers pushed back against deterministic or doom-driven narratives, highlighting that humans still write the models, set the rules and decide what A.I. ultimately serves.

    An Oxford-style debate hosted by Cognizant and Constellation Research captured this spirit. Participants were divided into “Team Humanity” and “Team A.I.,” and the format was deliberately interactive, not about winning an argument, but about changing minds on humanity’s purpose in an A.I. age. That focus on agency and responsibility ran through both formal sessions and late-night conversations.

    Davos does not dictate the future of technology. It reflects what people with power and capital are already preparing for. This year, the signal was clear: A.I. has entered its infrastructure phase. Competitive advantage will come from how organizations govern it, integrate it into work, retrain their people and navigate sovereignty and dependency risks, not from who can demo the flashiest model.

    Amid the urgency, what stood out most was the human element of thoughtful, collaborative people trying to build something better. In a moment defined by rapid change, that may be the most important signal of all.

    At Davos 2026, the New A.I. Race Is About Execution

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    Mark Minevich and Dr. Kathryn Wifvat

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  • Bitcoin Capital Flow Must Enter The Network Before Global Dominance — Here’s What Will Happen

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    My name is Godspower Owie, and I was born and brought up in Edo State, Nigeria. I grew up with my three siblings who have always been my idols and mentors, helping me to grow and understand the way of life.

    My parents are literally the backbone of my story. They’ve always supported me in good and bad times and never for once left my side whenever I feel lost in this world. Honestly, having such amazing parents makes you feel safe and secure, and I won’t trade them for anything else in this world.

    I was exposed to the cryptocurrency world 3 years ago and got so interested in knowing so much about it. It all started when a friend of mine invested in a crypto asset, which he yielded massive gains from his investments.

    When I confronted him about cryptocurrency he explained his journey so far in the field. It was impressive getting to know about his consistency and dedication in the space despite the risks involved, and these are the major reasons why I got so interested in cryptocurrency.

    Trust me, I’ve had my share of experience with the ups and downs in the market but I never for once lost the passion to grow in the field. This is because I believe growth leads to excellence and that’s my goal in the field. And today, I am an employee of Bitcoinnist and NewsBTC news outlets.

    My Bosses and co-workers are the best kinds of people I have ever worked with, in and outside the crypto landscape. I intend to give my all working alongside my amazing colleagues for the growth of these companies.

    Sometimes I like to picture myself as an explorer, this is because I like visiting new places, I like learning new things (useful things to be precise), I like meeting new people – people who make an impact in my life no matter how little it is.

    One of the things I love and enjoy doing the most is football. It will remain my favorite outdoor activity, probably because I’m so good at it. I am also very good at singing, dancing, acting, fashion and others.

    I cherish my time, work, family, and loved ones. I mean, those are probably the most important things in anyone’s life. I don’t chase illusions, I chase dreams.

    I know there is still a lot about myself that I need to figure out as I strive to become successful in life. I’m certain I will get there because I know I am not a quitter, and I will give my all till the very end to see myself at the top.

    I aspire to be a boss someday, having people work under me just as I’ve worked under great people. This is one of my biggest dreams professionally, and one I do not take lightly. Everyone knows the road ahead is not as easy as it looks, but with God Almighty, my family, and shared passion friends, there is no stopping me.

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Ray Dalio calls for ‘redistribution policy’ when AI and humanoid robots start to benefit the top 1% to 10% more than everyone else | Fortune

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    Legendary investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has issued a stark warning regarding the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and humanoid robots, predicting a dramatic increase in wealth inequality that will necessitate a new “redistribution policy”. Dalio articulated his concerns, suggesting that these advanced technologies are poised to benefit the top 1% to 10% of the population significantly more than everyone else, potentially leading to profound societal challenges.

    Speaking on “The Diary Of A CEO” podcast, Dalio described a future where humanoid robots, smarter than humans, and advanced AI systems, powered by trillions of dollars in investment, could render many current professions obsolete. He questioned the need for lawyers, accountants, and medical professionals if highly intelligent robots with PhD-level knowledge become commonplace, stating, “we will not need a lot of those jobs.” This technological leap, while promising “great advances,” also carries the potential for “great conflicts.”

    He predicted “a limited number of winners and a bunch of losers,” with the likely result being much greater polarity. With the top 1% to 10% “benefiting a lot,” he foresees that being a dividing force. He described the current business climate on AI and robotics as a “crazy boom,” but the question that’s really on his mind is: why would you need even a highly skilled professional if there’s a “humanoid robot that is smarter than all of us and has a PhD and everything.” Perhaps surprisingly, the founder of the biggest hedge fund in history suggested that redistribution will be sorely needed.

    Five big forces

    “There certainly needs to be a redistribution policy,” Dalio told host Steven Bartlett, without directly mentioning universal basic income. He clarified that this will have to more than “just a redistribution of money policy because uselessness and money may not be a great combination.” In other words, if you redistribute money but don’t think about how to put people to work, that could have negative effects in a world of autonomous agents. The ultimate takeaway, Dalio said, is “that has to be figured out, and the question is whether we’re too fragmented to figure that out.”

    Dalio’s remarks echo those of computer science professor Roman Yampolskiy, who sees AI creating up to 80 hours of free time per week for most people. But AI is also showing clear signs of shrinking the jobs market for recent grads, with one study seeing a 13% drop in AI-exposed jobs since 2022. Major revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that AI has begun “automating away tech jobs,” an economist said in a statement to Fortune in early September.

    Dalio said he views this technological acceleration as the fifth of five “big forces” that create an approximate 80-year cycle throughout history. He explained that human inventiveness, particularly with new technologies, has consistently raised living standards over time. However, when people don’t believe the system works for them, he said, internal conflicts and “wars between the left and the right” can erupt. Both the U.S. and UK are currently experiencing these kinds of wealth and values gaps, he said, leading to internal conflict and a questioning of democratic systems.

    Drawing on his extensive study of history, which spans 500 years and covers the rise and fall of empires, Dalio sees a historical precedent for such transformative shifts. He likened the current era to previous evolutions, from the agricultural age, where people were treated “essentially like oxen,” to the industrial revolutions where machines replaced physical labor. He said he’s concerned about a similar thing with mental labor, as “our best thinking may be totally replaced.” Dalio highlighted that throughout history, “intelligence matters more than anything” as it attracts investment and drives power.

    Pessimistic outlook

    Despite the “crazy boom” in AI and robotics, Dalio’s outlook on the future of major powers like the UK and U.S. was not optimistic, citing high debt, internal conflict, and geopolitical factors, in addition to a lack of innovative culture and capital markets in some regions. While personally “excited” by the potential of these technologies, Dalio’s ultimate concern rests on “human nature”. He questions whether people can “rise above this” to prioritize the “collective good” and foster “win-win relationships,” or if greed and power hunger will prevail, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions.

    Not all market watchers see a crazy boom as such a good thing. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Alman himself has said it resembles a “bubble” in some respects. Goldman Sachs has calculated that a bubble popping could wipe out up to 20% of the S&P 500’s valuation. And some long-time critics of the current AI landscape, such as Gary Marcus, disagree with Dalio entirely, arguing that the bubble is due to pop because the AI technology currently on the market is too error-prone to be relied upon, and therefore can’t be scaled away. Stanford computer science professor Jure Leskovec told Fortune that AI is a powerful but imperfect tool and it’s boosting “human expertise” in his classroom, including the hand-written and hand-graded exams that he’s using to really test his students’ knowledge.

    For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

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    Nick Lichtenberg

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  • Crypto To Overtake The Dollar? Ray Dalio Flags End Of Debt Cycle

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    Crypto sits at the heart of Ray Dalio’s new message. On September 3, 2025, the Bridgewater Associates founder published a point-by-point rebuttal to what he called the Financial Times’ “mischaracterizations,” releasing the full written Q&A he says he provided to the paper. The exchange restates his “Big Debt Cycle” framework and argues that rising US debt burdens, risks to Federal Reserve independence, and mounting geopolitical fractures are eroding the dollar’s role as a store of wealth—conditions that he says are boosting gold and crypto.

    Why Crypto Is An “An Attractive Alternative”

    Dalio frames the US fiscal position as late-cycle and dangerously self-reinforcing. “The great excesses that are now projected as a result of the new budget will likely cause a debt-induced heart-attack in the relatively near future—I’d say three years, give or take a year or two,” he wrote. He quantified the near-term squeeze in stark terms, citing “about $1 trillion a year in interest” and “about $9 trillion needed to roll over the debt,” alongside roughly “$7 trillion” in spending versus “$5 trillion” in revenues, requiring “an additional roughly $2 trillion in debt.” That expanding supply, he argued, collides with weakening demand when investors question whether bonds “are good storeholds of wealth.”

    Related Reading

    The fulcrum, in Dalio’s telling, is now the Federal Reserve. If political pressure undermines the central bank’s independence, he warned, “we will see an unhealthy decline in the value of money.” Should a “politically weakened Fed” allow inflation to “run hot,” the consequence would be that “bonds and the dollar [go] down in value” and, if not remedied, becoming “an ineffective storehold of wealth and the breaking down of the monetary order as we know it.” He linked this to a broader late-cycle pattern: foreign holders “reducing their holdings of US bonds and increasing their holdings of gold due to geopolitical worries,” which he called “classically symptomatic” of the endgame.

    Dalio connected the macro and political strands to a more interventionist policy backdrop, referencing actions “to take control of what businesses do” and likening the current phase to the 1928–1938 period. He did not pin the dynamic on a single administration—“this situation has been going on for a long time under presidents from both parties”—but said post-2008 and especially post-2020 policies accelerated it. “The interaction of these five forces will lead to huge and unimaginable changes over the next 5 years,” he added, listing debt, domestic politics, geopolitics, acts of nature, and technology (with AI most important) as the drivers.

    Within that late-cycle schema, Dalio placed crypto squarely in the “hard currency” bucket. “Crypto is now an alternative currency that has its supply limited,” he wrote. “If the supply of dollar money rises and/or the demand for it falls, that would likely make crypto an attractive alternative currency.” He tied the recent “rises in gold and cryptocurrency prices” to “reserve currency governments’ bad debt situations,” and reiterated his long-running focus on “storeholds of wealth.”

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    On whether crypto could “meaningfully replace the dollar,” he emphasized mechanics over labels, noting that “most fiat currencies, especially those with large debts, will have problems being effective storeholds of wealth and will go down in value relative to hard currencies,” a pattern he said echoed the 1930–1940 and 1970–1980 episodes.

    Dalio addressed crypto stablecoin risk in that context, separating asset price drawdowns from systemic fragility: “I don’t think so,” he said when asked if stablecoins’ Treasury exposure is a systemic risk, adding that “a fall in the real purchasing power of Treasuries” is the real hazard—mitigated “if they are well-regulated.” He also rejected the notion that deregulation alone threatens the dollar’s reserve status: “No,” he said, pointing again to debt dynamics as the primary vulnerability.

    Dalio’s latest remarks fit within a decade-long evolution of his public stance on Bitcoin and crypto rather than a whiplash reversal. Early on, he emphasized gold as the superior “storehold of wealth” and warned that if Bitcoin ever became too successful, governments might restrict it—tempering enthusiasm with regulatory risk.

    By 2020–2021 he began calling Bitcoin “one hell of an invention,” acknowledged owning a small amount, and increasingly framed it as a portfolio diversifier that rhymes with digital gold, while still stressing its volatility and policy sensitivities. With his latest remarks, Dalio puts the entire crypto market inside the monetary hierarchy he uses to analyze late-cycle dynamics.

    At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.79 trillion.

    Total crypto market cap
    Crypto market cap, 1-week chart | Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Billionaire investor Ray Dalio refuses to endorse Biden or Trump

    Billionaire investor Ray Dalio refuses to endorse Biden or Trump

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    If you’re one of the millions of Americans wondering how the country wound up stuck between a twice-impeached convicted felon and an increasingly frail incumbent for its next President, Ray Dalio can sympathize. 

    The billionaire founder of Bridgewater, the world’s fourth largest hedge fund, said the unfortunate reality is that he, along with about half of the country, wished there was a realistic alternative to Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

    “I feel like I am faced with the choice between a strong, unethical, almost fascist Republican Party and a frail, untruthful and enigmatic Democratic Party,” he wrote in a column for Time he simultaneously posted on LinkedIn. “As things now stand, there is no good presidential contender and no good party for me to choose from.”

    The speculator, who handed over the reins at Bridgewater in 2022, had told Fortune CEO Alan Murray prior to the first primary contest in Iowa that he was already dreading a potential rematch of Trump vs Biden. 

    Since Dalio wrote that he respected and liked Biden, he turned his crosshairs instead towards leading Democrats who sought to hide the President’s “weak and rapidly declining condition” from the American public.

    By pretending the 82-year-old had the constitution to face another four years of the most demanding and important job around when it was clear the emperor had no clothes, the party undermined trust. 

    “That is obviously ridiculous and an insult to people’s intelligence,” Dalio wrote, adding claims that Biden could still function most hours of the day only lead to a “terrible loss of confidence in its honesty and judgement”.

    Major Democratic donors, including the Disney heiress Abigail Disney, have signaled their unwillingness to fund his re-election campaign any further, comparing Biden to an elderly parent whose car keys need to be taken away from them.

    ‘Four months left’ to prevent a sweep in November

    On Tuesday, Michael Bennet emerged as the first Senate Democrat to state publicly that Biden faced losing to his opponent in November.

    Speaking to CNN, the Colorado legislator even went a step further, arguing the President’s continued candidacy could spark a landslide victory for Trump’s party and a clean sweep of the House, Senate and Presidency.

    “We have four months to figure out how we’re going to save the country from Donald Trump,” he told the cable news network. “The stakes could not be higher.” 

    In a sign of how conflicted the party is, Bennet acknowledged he only came forward after his comments—made privately to his peers—had been leaked to the press.

    In Dalio’s column, the Bridgewater founder concluded the Democrats now had only three options left going forward, none of which were particularly appealing. 

    They could either unite behind Biden in the hopes of white-knuckling it to a re-election victory and then tackling the problem afterward (“bait and switch”), hand Vice President Kamala Harris the nomination on a silver platter and drop her into the race (“coronation”), or organize a shortened contest among leading contenders to take Biden’s stead (“mini-primary”).

    While the latter was Dalio’s preferred option, since it would offer Americans a choice as to who should lead the ticket, he acknowledged it would likely harm their chances of winning in November.

    “I am still hoping for honest, smart, strong and ideally moderate-bipartisan Democrats (or Republicans) to step forward,” he wrote.

    Until then, it looks as if neither Trump nor Biden will earn his vote—or his donation checks.

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    Christiaan Hetzner

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  • Steve Cohen Predicts Golf Industry Will Boom When AI Enables the Four-Day Workweek

    Steve Cohen Predicts Golf Industry Will Boom When AI Enables the Four-Day Workweek

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    Steve Cohen at the SportiConference Invest In Sports 2023 in New York. Bryan Bedder/Sportico via Getty Images

    Billionaire Steve Cohen is betting big on golf. The hedge fund manager predicts that with the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (A.I.), the normalization of the four-day workweek will cause a boom in leisure and give workers more time to hit the greens.

    Cohen, the media-shy head of Point72 Asset Management, discussed his prediction in a rare interview with CNBC Squawk Box. “My belief is the four-day workweek is coming,” he said. “I just think it’s an eventuality.”

    Despite being known for the owner of the New York Mets, Cohen has made moves in the golf world in recent months. In September, he acquired the rights to a New York team in TGL, a high-tech golf league formed by tiger woods and Rory McIlroy. And as part of a consortium that includes Boston Red Sox owner John Henry and former Milwaukee Bucks co-owner Marc Lasry, the hedge fund manager invested as much as $3 billion in the PGA Tour earlier this year.

    “We think it’s an interesting investment,” Cohen told CNBC of the golf industry, adding that “the way it’s been run, we can improve the operations and make it much more profitable.” Some of that profit could come from expanded leisure time. Between the rise of A.I. and the fact that “people are not as productive on Fridays,” Cohen is gearing up for four-day work weeks to become the norm in the future. With an extra day off, he believes industries around travel and experience will benefit. “I guess courses will be crowded on Fridays,” he said.

    Get ready for year-round three-day weekends

    Don’t expect Cohen’s employees at Point72 to be taking part as long as the markets remain open throughout the week. “If they’re taking off Friday and they have a portfolio, that’s a problem,” he noted. “Forgetting us, the vast majority of people will get an opportunity, I think at some point, to get a three-day weekend.”

    Cohen isn’t the only finance heavyweight to predict a move toward compressed work weeks. Fellow billionaire Ray Dalio made a similar point while speaking at the Milken Institute’s Asia Summit last year, where he claimed that A.I. will let humans work fewer hours and urged for policies to prevent a potential widening of the wealth gap. And back in 2018, business magnate Richard Branson predicted in a blog post that emerging technologies would transform the five-day workweek as we know it.

    While traditional working hours have remained largely steady across the U.S., some companies have been increasingly experimenting with work structures. The clothing reseller ThredUp, for example, has already embraced a four-day workweek, while New York City’s largest public employee union recently launched a compressed workweek pilot program that will run until May of next year.

    Beyond its effects on work structures, Cohen told CNBC that A.I. is poised to transform how companies operate. “My view is this is a very durable theme,” he said, noting that his firm could save $25 million by using large language models to improve efficiency. “Now, we’re a nice-sized firm; we’re not a huge firm. Imagine what big companies can do.”

    Cohen also discussed his plans for the New York Mets, which have recently had an unsuccessful run under his ownership despite a large injection of cash. Moving forward, he will continue overseeing strategy experts and prioritizing the development of young talent. These tactics parallel his approach towards running Point72, noted Cohen. “I’m used to operating in a very centralized way. I give people a lot of rope.”

    Steve Cohen Predicts Golf Industry Will Boom When AI Enables the Four-Day Workweek

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    Alexandra Tremayne-Pengelly

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  • Billionaire Ray Dalio on the most important vote of our lifetime: ‘I pray that we do not have another Trump-Biden election’

    Billionaire Ray Dalio on the most important vote of our lifetime: ‘I pray that we do not have another Trump-Biden election’

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    Bridgewater Associates founder and legendary investor Ray Dalio sounded the alarm on the perilous state of American politics, admitting he’s dreading a rerun of the fractious 2020 Trump-Biden election which scarred the country.

    That deeply divisive contest for the White House, which resulted in a Biden win, eventually led to an insurrection on January 6, 2021, where Trump engaged in a “multi-part conspiracy” to overturn the lawful election results and failed to act to stop Republican supporters from attacking the Capitol.

    Dalio has already called the 2024 election the most important one of our lifetimes, as Fortune CEO Alan Murray reminded him in conversation at Fortune’s Global Forum in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday. Dalio responded that he was praying.

    “I pray that we do not have another Trump-Biden election because that will produce a lot of problems,” Dalio said.

    “What we need is a very strong middle,” Dalio urged, advocating for a return to a more centrist approach that could bridge the divide between ideological extremes. Then he laid out how he sees that playing out—or not.

    ‘Irreconcilable differences’

    “We have irreconcilable differences by sides that will not accept losing,” Dalio declared, pointing to the festering extremism that threatened to tear the fabric of the nation apart in 2021, while also framing the polarization issue as a far-left versus a far-right in America, with a shrinking middle, or moderate, political center.

    The outspoken investor minced no words, asserting that “no good government, no good society exists with this kind of fighting.” Dalio expressed deep concern over the dire implications of such political skirmishes, emphasizing their potential economic and tax ramifications.

    “This is not good governance; it has big implications and can have a big economic and tax impact,” he warned. The big question, he continued, is whether an alternative candidate will emerge on the Republican side, and he sees two scenarios for how that will play out.

    “Nikki Haley is the leading candidate from my point of view. She’s smart, can work across party lines, has the quality of the character and she’s been through the system.”

    “If Haley did get the nomination (from Republicans), she would be the probable winner in a presidential election,” Dalio said. “Almost everybody would say that.”

    Dalio added that if Haley gets the nomination, he strongly believes the Democrats would have to reconsider running Biden against her. “The question is whether Biden runs. The combination of his age issue, his popularity and so on is a problem.”

    This all means that the real race has not yet begun, the billionaire said. “The interesting election” will be the South Carolina primary between whatever alternative candidate emerges and Trump.

    Regardless of who wins, Dalio concluded, “We’re also going to need reforms” to ensure the system is working for most people.

    He highlighted that his family office has three branches: in the U.S., in Singapore and in Abu Dhabi, and as he told Murray, “In the world today there are bright spots.” These places “have a culture in which there’s excellent education for most people, in which there’s civility,” and in which the economy is thriving.

    And he is praying—but he isn’t exactly hopeful—that the U.S. will remain one of these places.

    Get the business news that matters most to you with our customizable digest, Fortune Daily. Register to get it delivered free to your inbox.

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    Massimo Marioni

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  • Ray Dalio hails the Gulf’s ‘renaissance states’ amid a period of ‘greater disorder’ globally

    Ray Dalio hails the Gulf’s ‘renaissance states’ amid a period of ‘greater disorder’ globally

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    ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Amid a turbulent global environment, hedge fund titan Ray Dalio sees one particular part of the world as holding promise for investors: the Middle East’s Gulf states.

    The Bridgewater Associates founder specifically highlighted the United Arab Emirates, while speaking during a CNBC panel at Abu Dhabi Finance Week.

    “We’re talking today about how the world order is changing, and how the region, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) region is becoming an important region. It’s very classic. It’s a renaissance state. We’re now talking about a renaissance state here that happens within this greater geopolitical and economic environment,” Dalio told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday.

    Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates is the world’s largest hedge fund, which had $97.2 billion in assets under management as of September 2023, according to the latest annual report by Pensions & Investments. The billionaire financier in April opened a new branch of his family office, the Dalio Family Office, in Abu Dhabi, expanding his push into the Middle East and supplementing the business’ existing locations in the U.S. and Singapore. 

    The UAE “is a renaissance state,” Dalio said. “What I mean is, I look for fundamentally, do you earn more than you spend? So [do] you have a good income statement? Do you have a good balance sheet? Are your assets greater than your liabilities?”

    He added, “Do you have a culture in which there’s the development of people and the working together of those people to be productive?,” he continued.

    “And number four would be, are you outside of a great power conflict? Are you in the middle of the war? Or are you outside the war? And so, I look at that around the world as to the places I want to invest in, the places I want to be. And this region is very, very attractive and is at the takeoff point for the reasons that were discussed in the other sessions.”

    Bridgewater's Ray Dalio says America needs 'bipartisan' leadership

    Many economic observers have pointed to the Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as leveraging their oil wealth, geographic location between eastern and western markets, and long-term development plans to become highly attractive spots for both foreign investment and fundraising.

    Dubai, the UAE’s glitzy commercial capital, was home to 40 registered hedge funds as of July, more than a third of which arrived in the previous 12 months, according to the Dubai International Financial Centre. The vast majority set up shop in the years following the Covid-19 pandemic, when relatively relaxed rules and financial liberalization reforms ushered in a new wave of foreign investment. The majority of those funds are regional subsidiaries of London or New York-based firms.

    Amid higher oil prices in recent years, the region’s mammoth sovereign wealth funds have ever more to spend.

    The region’s combined 10 largest sovereign wealth funds managed some $4 trillion in early 2023, according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute. That’s more than the gross domestic product of France or the U.K. — and it doesn’t include private money. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund alone manages more than $700 billion in assets, according to the SWFI.

    Those figures and the funds’ willingness to make large investments in advanced industries around the world are drawing visible interest from venture capitalists and startup founders, in sectors such as fintech, digital transformation and renewable energy technology.

    Rise of the ‘middle powers’

    Geopolitically, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are also among the so-called “middle power” countries, which maintain good relations with both the Western world and heavyweights like Russia and China. This allows them to leverage those relationships to maximize advantages in trade and political influence.

    The countries have played mediating roles in the Ukraine-Russia war and engage with both the rest of the Muslim world and, officially or unofficially, with Israel, all while avoiding getting pulled into the war raging between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

    The rise of these so-called “middle powers” in mediating such large-scale conflict signals a new world where players beyond the U.S. and the West can call the shots, and where smaller states aren’t forced to tie themselves to the U.S., Russia, or China. 

    The lure of high dividends has been a major draw for global investors amid a recent wave of mega listings across the Gulf region.

    Rustam Azmi | Getty Images

    It’s also key for global positioning, as U.S. influence in the world and the region wanes, Dalio said.

    “In the broader sense, you have now a serious war in Europe, you have a serious war in the Middle East, and you have a change in control,” Dalio said. “You used to have a dominant power … the United States would have a greater role in influencing things. Now we’re having a testing of power. And that’s going on in different ways. And so we’re in a period, I think of greater disorder, and then it has its economic implications.”

    The financial status, regulatory environment and, thus far, political stability of the Gulf states — particularly their ability to stay outside the fray of major conflicts — are crucial for institutional investors, Dalio said.

    “I want to emphasize, as an investor, I would say important things are first to know how to diversify well, to be in those places that have those four qualities I mentioned before — the good income statement, good balance sheet, the civility of the people and (being) the renaissance states that are outside the great conflict states,” he said.

    “You’re seeing this renaissance with Gulf countries and so on, to be able to go on and have … prosperity in the region.”

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  • Nvidia wins fresh support as firms tied to Bill Gates and Ray Dalio reveal stakes in the microchip giant

    Nvidia wins fresh support as firms tied to Bill Gates and Ray Dalio reveal stakes in the microchip giant

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    Bill Gates.Ramin Talaie / Getty

    • Firms tied to Bill Gates and Ray Dalio purchased small stakes in Nvidia last quarter, filings show.

    • The Gates Foundation Trust and Bridgewater Associates both bought shares of the microchip maker.

    • Funds linked to George Soros, Jim Simons, and Stanley Druckenmiller pared or exited their positions.

    Nvidia attracted two high-profile backers last quarter, as funds linked to Bill Gates and Ray Dalio took small stakes in the microchip maker.

    The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust, which invests the Gates Foundation’s endowment, bought Nvidia shares for the first time on record, a SEC filing revealed this week. It purchased about 9,200 shares, worth $4 million at the end of September.

    The Gates’ trust diversified its stock portfolio in the period, expanding it from 23 holdings to 74, but its total value was almost flat at $39 billion. Its largest positions were a $12 billion stake in Microsoft, and nearly $8 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock as a result of Warren Buffett’s yearly gifts to the foundation.

    While the bet on Nvidia was relatively small, the wager still ranked in the top half of the trust’s portfolio by value. Cascade, the asset manager which oversees the Trust and Gates’ personal fortune, also disclosed new stakes in Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet. It may have invested in Nvidia as part of a broader effort to boost its Big Tech exposure.

    Dalio-founded Bridgewater Associates established a stake in Nvidia last quarter too, filings show. The hedge-fund behemoth, run by three co-CIOs since Dalio stepped down last year, purchased just over 48,000 shares worth $21 million at September’s close.

    The last time that Bridgewater reported a Nvidia stake was in the third quarter of last year. It’s worth noting the new wager is small relative to the firm’s biggest positions on September 30, which included a $700 million stake in Procter & Gamble and roughly $500 million positions in each of Costco and Coca-Cola.

    Nvidia’s stock price has soared by about 240% this year, as investors wager the artificial-intelligence boom will supercharge demand for its graphics chips. The company has certainly received a boost; its revenue roughly doubled year-on-year to about $14 billion in the three months to July, lifting its net income by nearly 10-fold to over $6 billion.

    Funds tied to other high-profile investors took a different tack to Gates and Dalio’s firms. Soros Fund Management dumped its entire $4 million stake in Nvidia, Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies slashed its bet by 34% to 1.2 million shares, and Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office trimmed its position by about 8% to 875,000 shares, filings showed this week.

    Read the original article on Business Insider

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  • Inside James Comey’s Bizarre $7M Job as a Top Hedge Fund’s In-House Inquisitor

    Inside James Comey’s Bizarre $7M Job as a Top Hedge Fund’s In-House Inquisitor

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    As head of security, Comey reported to Dalio’s longtime deputy Greg Jensen, who seemed eager to prove that he took the protection of Bridgewater’s secrets as seriously as Dalio. With little evidence of actual offending behavior to snuff out, they created their own. Comey helped come up with a plan to leave a binder, clearly labeled as Jensen’s, unattended in the Bridgewater offices. It worked like a charm. Comey watched as a low-ranked Bridgewater employee stumbled upon the binder and began to peruse it. Jensen and Comey put the employee on trial, found him guilty, and fired him, with Dalio’s approval.

    During and after Comey’s era at Bridgewater, tens of thousands of hours of the firm’s internal deliberations, arguments and trials were uploaded into what was called the “Transparency Library” and available for playback for all at the firm.

    Lordy, there was plenty to watch.

    No doubt Comey’s most infamous internal case was his prosecution of Bridgewater co-chief executive officer, Eileen Murray, who stood out like a pimple in Bridgewater’s blue-blooded executive suite. She’d grown up in a housing project in Queens, rarely wore skirts, never married, never had children, and talked frequently about her dogs. A former Morgan Stanley executive, she sent emails off the cuff, all lowercase, with typos, suggesting she was too busy to give anything her full attention.

    The proximate cause of Murray’s lesson in the application of The Principles was innocuous enough. A job candidate mentioned to a Bridgewater executive that he was familiar with the hedge fund’s head of accounting, Perry Poulos, one of Murray’s hires. The job candidate evinced surprise—didn’t they know Poulos had been fired from Morgan Stanley?

    Comey grabbed a former FBI agent on the Bridgewater staff and went to intercept the unsuspecting Poulos. The duo pulled him into a conference room without warning.

    “Hi, guys,” Poulos said.

    “We just want to know, is there anything in your background we should know about?” Comey responded.

    “I had some things there, but it’s all cleared up now.”

    “You wouldn’t mind if we ask a few questions and look a little more?”

    There’s really nothing to find, Poulos said.

    Go ahead. He exited the room, heart racing, and soon found Murray. She knew, as he did, that he had been let go from Morgan Stanley after questions were raised about his expenses. But Murray sensed a larger target at play. “It’s not you,” she told Poulos. “It’s me. They are trying to get to me.”

    Comey called in Poulos for another interview.

    “Did you talk to anyone about this?” Comey asked.

    “No.”

    “Are you sure?”

    “No, I haven’t talked to anyone.”

    “You live with Eileen, don’t you?”

    Knowing Bridgewater’s reputation for intimate relationships, Poulos assumed Comey was sniffing for a romantic angle. During the week, Poulos said, he sometimes spent the evening at Murray’s place, in separate bedrooms.

    “Even that evening, after we spoke, you didn’t talk to her?” Comey asked.

    “I don’t remember saying anything in particular.”

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    Rob Copeland

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  • Ray Dalio says to hold cash ‘temporarily’ — but don’t buy debt and bonds

    Ray Dalio says to hold cash ‘temporarily’ — but don’t buy debt and bonds

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    Ray Dalio, billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, speaks during the Milken Institute Conference

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    As concerns mount over rising interest rates and inflation levels, billionaire investor Ray Dalio says he prefers to hold cash for now, not bonds.

    “I don’t want to own debt, you know, bonds and those kinds of things,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates said when asked how he would deploy capital in today’s investment environment.

    “Temporarily, right now, cash I think is good … and the interest rates are fine. I don’t think [it] will be sustained that way,” Dalio told an audience at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore on Thursday.

    Dalio’s comments come as the yield on the 30-day U.S. Treasury bill climbs above 5% while investors can get 4% on certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts.

    Dalio says the biggest mistake that most investors make is “believing that markets that performed well are good investments, rather than more expensive.”

    When asked how a new industry watcher should deploy capital, Dalio’s advice was: Be in the right geographies, diversify, pay attention to the implications of disruptions and pick asset classes that are creating new technologies and using them “in the best possible way.”

    Rising debt

    Touching on how to address the rising global debt, the hedge fund manager pointed out that when debt accounts for a substantial share of a country’s economy, the situation “tends to compound and accelerate … because you have to have interest rates that are high enough for the creditor and not so high that they are harming the debtor.”

    “We’re at that turning point of acceleration. But the real problem comes when individuals or investors don’t hold the bonds, because it comes as a supply-demand, one man’s debts or another man’s assets,” he explained.

    Dalio cautioned that investors will sell their bonds if they are not receiving real interest rates that are high enough.

    “The supply-demand [imbalance] isn’t just the amount of new bonds. It’s the issue of ‘do you choose to sell the bonds?’” he explained.

    When there’s a sell-off in bonds, prices fall and yields rise, as they have an inverse relationship. As a result, borrowing costs will increase and drive up inflationary pressure, thereby posing an uphill task for central banks.

    “When the interest rates go up, the central bank then has to make a choice: Do they let them go up and have the consequences of that, or do they then print money and buy those bonds? And that has inflationary consequences,” Dalio explained.

    “We’re seeing that dynamic happen now. I personally believe that the bonds longer term are not a good investment,” he stressed.

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  • China-Taiwan tensions could grip 2024 election as Musk, Buffett and Dalio sound alarms

    China-Taiwan tensions could grip 2024 election as Musk, Buffett and Dalio sound alarms

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    Chinese tourists walk past an installation depicting Taiwan (R) and mainland China at a tourist area on Pingtan island, the closest point to Taiwan, in China’s southeast Fujian province on April 6, 2023.

    Greg Baker | AFP | Getty Images

    Fraying U.S.-China relations and rising tensions over Taiwan have influential business leaders such as Elon Musk and Warren Buffett sounding alarms about a possible invasion – a matter that will likely loom over the 2024 election.

    China is already bound to be a major issue in the U.S. campaign as President Xi Jinping pushes to expand his nation’s power. China’s policy regarding Taiwan, the world’s leader in the semiconductor industry, could end up making it an even bigger focus.

    The cross-strait strife has already provoked commentary from some top contenders in the Republican presidential primary race who have stressed the need to deter a possible Chinese invasion invasion of the island. Taiwan is also a topic of discussion during this week’s Group of Seven meeting in Japan, which President Joe Biden is attending.

    Xi has made Taiwan “reunification” a focal point of his agenda and Beijing has ramped up hostilities against the island, putting a spotlight on its importance to the global economy and conjuring fears of a major international conflict that could eclipse Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine.

    “The official policy of China is that Taiwan should be integrated. One does not need to read between the lines, one can simply read the lines,” Tesla CEO Musk said in an interview Tuesday with CNBC’s David Faber.

    “So I think there’s a certain — there’s some inevitability to the situation,” Musk said, adding that it would be bad for “any company in the world.”

    Tesla just last month announced plans to open a new factory in Shanghai that will build “Megapack” batteries.

    Musk’s remarks came one day after Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed in a filing that it has completely abandoned its recently acquired stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., once worth more than $4 billion. The world’s largest chipmaker, based in Hsinchu, Taiwan, produces the majority of the advanced semiconductors used by top tech companies like Apple, Amazon, Google, Qualcomm and more.

    Buffett said in recent weeks that the geopolitical strife over Taiwan was “certainly a consideration” in his decision to offload the shares over the last two fiscal quarters. And in an analyst call earlier this month, Buffett said that while the company was “marvelous,” he had “reevaluated” his position “in the light of certain things that were going on.”

    “I feel better about the capital that we’ve got deployed in Japan than Taiwan. And I wish it weren’t so, but I think that’s a reality,” he said.

    Meanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund titan Bridgewater Associates, in late April wrote a lengthy post on LinkedIn warning that the U.S. and China were on the “brink of war” — though he specified that that could mean a war of sanctions rather than military might.

    The apparent worries from the three members of Forbes’ list of the world’s richest people come “a little late to the party,” Longview Global senior policy analyst Dewardric McNeal said in an interview with CNBC.

    “It’s frustrating to me,” McNeal said. “We’ve been talking about this for years, and we’ve also been trying to warn against being overly dependent on China as your source for selling products [and] manufacturing products.”

    He also noted that Berkshire Hathaway still holds stock in BYD, an electric car maker based in Shenzhen, China. “Quite frankly, it is advantageous for China to scare investors away from Taiwan and damage or taint that economy, because that is one of the scenarios [in which] that they could bring Taiwan to heel without an armed intervention,” McNeal said.

    Buffett’s company has sold more than half the stake in BYD it held as of last year.

    “I don’t think an attack is imminent, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be using this time to plan,” McNeal said. “And what I often see is businesses sort of talking beyond the point, hoping — hope is not a strategy — that this won’t happen.”

    The U.S. policy on Taiwan

    U.S. intelligence officials have said Xi is pushing China’s military to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027. China is “likely preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the [People’s Republic of China] by force,” the Pentagon said in 2021.

    China asserts Taiwan, a self-governing democracy, is part of its territory. It has pushed to absorb the island under the banner of “one country, two systems,” a status rejected by Taiwan’s government in Taipei.

    Beijing in recent years has steadily ramped up its pressure over Taiwan on economic and military fronts. It flexed its might as recently as last month by conducting large combat drills near Taiwan, while vowing to crack down on any hints of Taiwanese independence.

    China has not ruled out using force to take control of Taiwan.

    Taiwan’s recent interactions with the U.S. have provoked aggressive reactions from China. After then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., visited Taipei last summer, China launched missiles over Taiwan and cut off some diplomatic channels with the U.S.

    A meeting in California last month between Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, and current House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., prompted more threats and fury from Beijing.

    McCarthy meeting Taiwan leader clearly about increased aggression from China, says Dewardric McNeal

    Even in a political climate where both major U.S. parties have been critical of China and wary of its encroaching global influence, leaders have tread carefully around the volatile subject of Taiwan. The U.S. has officially recognized a “One China” policy — that Taiwan is a part of the mainland — for more than four decades, and China has vowed to sever diplomatic ties with countries that seek official diplomacy with Taiwan.

    While Pelosi spoke of America’s interest in preserving Taiwan’s democracy on her trip to Taipei, she stressed in a Washington Post op-ed at the time that her visit “in no way contradicts the long-standing one-China policy.”

    Biden was seen to break with America’s longstanding stance on Taiwan when he said last year that U.S. forces would defend the island if it was attacked by China. The White House, however, maintains the U.S. policy on Taiwan is unchanged.

    2024 contenders weigh in

    Dalio predicted that the brinksmanship between the two superpowers will grow more aggressive over the next 18 months, in part because the 2024 U.S. election cycle could usher in a swell of anti-Chinese rhetoric.

    There’s little doubt that China will a major topic on the campaign trail. At least three Republicans who are seen as potential presidential candidates — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton — have recently embarked on trips to Asia, including Taiwan, to meet with allied leaders.

    Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers at every level have produced an array of legislation seeking to reverse China’s growing influence, some of which has drawn accusations of fearmongering. And some of the potential presidential contenders have already weighed in with calls to meet Chinese aggression with strength.

    “Xi clearly wants to take Taiwan at some point,” DeSantis said in an interview with Nikkei while in Japan. “He’s got a certain time horizon. He could be emboldened to maybe shorten that horizon. But I think ultimately what I think China respects is strength,” DeSantis said.

    DeSantis had drawn criticism for a previous foray into geopolitics when he described Russia’s war in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute.” His views on U.S. policy toward Taiwan, in contrast, were more vague.

    Former Vice President Mike Pence: The last thing we ought to do is raise taxes

    “I think our policy should really be to shape the environment in such a way that really deters them from doing that,” DeSantis said of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. “I think if they think the costs are going to outweigh whatever benefits, then I do think that they would hold off. That should be our goal.”

    DeSantis, who is gearing up to formally announce his presidential campaign next week, is seen as former President Donald Trump‘s top rival for the Republican nomination.

    Trump said last year that he expected China to invade Taiwan because Beijing is “seeing that our leaders are incompetent,” referring to the Biden administration.

    Former Vice President Mike Pence, who says he will make his own decision about running for president by next month, said in April that the U.S. should increase sales of military hardware to Taiwan, “so that the Chinese will have to count the cost before they make any move against that nation.”

    In an interview Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Pence cited the cross-strait tensions as an argument against cutting U.S. military spending.

    “At a time when China is literally floating a new battleship every month and continuing military provocations across the Asia-Pacific and Russia’s waging an unprovoked war in Eastern Europe, the last thing we ought to be doing is cutting defense spending,” he said.

    Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who launched her presidential campaign in February, said in a statement to CNBC, “American resolve matters to China.”

    “They are watching what we do in Ukraine. If we abandon our friends in Ukraine, as some want us to do, it will only encourage China to attack our friends in Taiwan,” Haley said.

    ‘Like trying to separate conjoined twins’

    But the political will to defend Taiwan in a Chinese invasion may clash with economic forces.

    “Almost no one realizes that the Chinese economy and the rest of the global economy are like conjoined twins. It would be like trying to separate conjoined twins,” Musk told CNBC on Tuesday. “That’s the severity of the situation. And it’s actually worse for a lot of other companies than it is for Tesla. I mean, I’m not sure where you’re going to get an iPhone, for example.”

    Some CEOs of America’s biggest banks have said they would pull their business from China if directed to do so following an invasion of Taiwan. But Musk’s characterization of the entangled global economy is no exaggeration — and much of the focus has fallen on TSMC.

    “If Taiwan were taken out, we would be like severing our brain, because the world economy will not work without [TSMC] and the chips that come out of Taiwan today,” John Rutledge, chief investment strategist of Safanad, said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” in response to Musk’s comments.

    David Sacks, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said on CNBC that Apple is in a “very tough position” because the most advanced chips it needs are made in a single building on TSMC’s campus in Taiwan.

    We'd be fooling ourselves if we think we can be self-reliable on chips, says CFR's David Sacks

    The company’s technological edge in the production of semiconductors, which are used in all manner of products from cars to washing machines, has led to it being a potential “single point of failure” for many companies, McNeal said.

    But he also noted that the global reliance on TSMC — including by China, which reportedly depends on the company to provide about 70% of the chips needed to fuel its electronics industry — could act as a sort of bulwark against an invasion.

    A paper from the Stimson Center on Taiwan’s “Silicon Shield” put a fine point on the issue: “Without a doubt, the first Chinese bomb or rocket that should fall on the island would make the supply chain impact of the COVID pandemic seem like a mere hiccup in comparison.”

    CNBC Politics

    Read more of CNBC’s politics coverage:

    There are nevertheless efforts underway to diversify the industry geographically, including through a $40 billion investment to expand TSMC chip production in Arizona.

    McNeal said the issue should not solely be centered around TSMC and possible supply chain woes.

    “For our Taiwan friends, that message says you don’t give a damn about them, their lives, their safety. You’re only in this for what it means for your bottom line,” he said. “For me personally, that’s not a message that I want to send.”

    CNBC’s Amanda Macias and Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

    Disclosure: Dewardric McNeal is a CNBC contributor.

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  • EXCLUSIVE | Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio speaks to Business Today: Key Highlights

    EXCLUSIVE | Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio speaks to Business Today: Key Highlights

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    Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, in an exclusive interview with Business Today has said that India should have the highest growth rate in the near future if various indicators and prevailing global factors are considered. Dalio said as India’s neutral stand on geopolitical tensions is a good thing.

    He said that the country was opening up to the global capital markets and if that continued, it would be good for the capital market in India, in terms of capital flows.

    Here are a few excerpts from his interview:

    • US Federal Reserve and central banks’ stand on interest rate hike

    RD: The inflation rate and the bond yield will have to be high enough to satisfy creditors. So that, bond holders can get higher returns that are above the inflation rate. That’s the current challenge for US Fed because debtors do not want to receive interest rates that are too high.

    I think we’re going to have an inflation rate that is probably in the vicinity of 5 per cent-ish. But it’s a very uncertain inflation rate because of all the shocks that we have around it.

    The real rate, in other words, the rate above inflation that the interest rate is now at is in the vicinity of 1.5 per cent, a little bit higher than that. So that would mean that they would be probably approaching a 6 per cent, risk-free rate. And the Federal Reserve will put the short-term rate up towards that level. That level of interest rate is very harmful, very damaging to the economy.

    • Interest rates and inflation

    The world, the United States is going to spend a lot more money than it is taking in. In the United States, we will have a budget deficit, which is in the vicinity of 5 per cent of GDP. As is now planned, the Federal Reserve will also sell its bonds, and short-term debt to the tune of about 5 per cent of GDP. That’s 10 per cent of GDP. So that’s going to create a very tight set of circumstances.  

    At some point, we see that there’s not a demand for that, for various reasons. The real rates are not high enough, the bond market is going down, investors are losing money in it, and so on. And so, there’s a mismatch there. So that will shrink private credit. So those conditions create a bad set of conditions for growth.

    • Balancing growth and inflation

    We need money for poverty alleviation, building infrastructure, repairing Ukraine, spending money for climate change. The big difference between individuals and governments is the governments don’t have that constraint because they can print money. So, I think we have this trade-off. Whenever in history, you have a lot of debt and a lot of financial assets, it becomes very, very difficult for those to be balanced. And we’re now in a shift.  

    The prior decade, we had falling interest rates. Cash was very cheap, free, almost. And so, the whole investment landscape was very much built around that. Now we’re having this adjustment away from that. So central banks try to balance growth and inflation.  

    • How investors are managing with high interest rates

    I think that what you’re going to see is a classic sequence of events, where the interest rate rise is high enough that it is good for the creditor, but bad for the economy. And that when economic conditions become a bigger worry than inflation, you will see them come in and print more money and the value. So, I think it’s very important for investors over the long term, to not hold debt instruments. Over the short term, as long as those exist, then I would say neutral or slightly attractive.

    • Investment during high inflation, interest rates

    Whether whichever country you’re in, whichever currency you’re denominated in, look at the returns relative to inflation. Too many people look at just the level of returns, and they don’t pay enough attention to inflation. Generally, stay away from debt assets, debt denominated assets. Third, have a well-diversified portfolio. Diversification reduces risk without reducing expected returns, if you do it well.

    • Changing dynamics in global politics

    It is now Russia and China. And there are five kinds of wars. There is a trade war, a technology war, a geopolitical influence war, a capital and economic war, and a military war– five of those. We are in the first four of those. If we never go to a military war, we still having damage happening. Because we are still in an environment where globalisation, as we know it, is declining. Because right now in fears of those wars, there is the desire for self-sufficiency. It used to be that the world would come close to producing items and trading items, wherever it was most efficient. That is now changing.

    I think India has a great potential. India, I use indicators, we use indicators of the next 10 years growth rate. Some of the indicators are the cost of an educated person. In other words, what is the education level, but also how expensive are they? Barriers to trade and capital flows, level levels of corruption, many different indicators. And on balance, India should have the highest growth rate of any country. And it’s opening up to the global capital markets. If that continues, that’ll be efficient for the capital markets in India, and capital flows.

    India is largely taking a neutral position in these conflicts. It of course, needs to develop a very strong leading economy related to technology. It is not the two main competitors in technology development. Big technology platforms and all of that are still of course, the United States and China. And those are going to be cutting edge areas.

    India’s level of indebtedness, a number of indicators indicates that it should do very well over the next 10 years. But it’ll be important to have a modernisation, particularly of the capital markets, to bring in the efficiencies.

    • Tech stocks on NASDAQ (Facebook stocks are down by 40-50%)

    So, there was a bubble in tech stocks. Mostly, what’s happening is that a number of these have negative cash flows. That means they didn’t have earnings that will support those prices. And in many cases, they didn’t have earnings. And they relied on either borrowing money to make up the gap or raising venture capital or private equity money. And free money was basically free and plentiful. Money was basically the paradigm. And so, you’re now seeing those companies who have negative cash flows, being severely hurt. Because if the money doesn’t come in, then they’ll go broke, they’ll run out of money, they have to contract and so on. And we’re seeing that happen.

    If we look at climate change, or even the environment for pandemics, you know, that’s something that’s also worrying. The surprises for climate are not going to be on the upside, they’re going to be worse.

    Climate remediation is estimated to cost $9 trillion a year in order to reach goals which probably won’t be reached, and who’s going to pay for that money? That’s very expensive at this time. So, I think between now and 2024, it’ll become an increasingly difficult period, but there’ll be good inventions, and there’ll be good developments.

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  • EXCLUSIVE: ‘India should have highest growth rate,’ says Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio

    EXCLUSIVE: ‘India should have highest growth rate,’ says Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio

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    Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, finds great potential in India. Dalio says he uses various indicators and believes India should have the highest growth rate going ahead.

    In an interview with Business Today TV’s Udayan Mukherjee, Dalio said India was opening up to the global capital markets and if that continued, it would be good for the capital market in India, in terms of capital flows.

    Dalio said India was largely taking a neutral position in the ongoing global conflicts, which was good. “We use indicators of the next 10 years growth rate. Some of the indicators include the cost of an educated person. In other words, not only the education level, but also how expensive it is. Others include barriers to trade and capital flows and the level of corruption. On balance, India should have the highest growth rate of any country,” Dalio said.

    Dalio also touched on a number of other issues, including inflation and interest rate hikes, during the interaction.

    Inflation

    Dalio said inflation peaking would depend on three factors with the first being creation of debt. Besides, he pointed out two other factors that were “disruptive and related.”

    “And those other two factors are a great internal conflict due to large wealth differences, that is producing populism of the left and populism of the right, which are at war with each other. We could see that particularly in the United States. How do you deal with those money issues? They’re not just money issues, but ballot politics,” he said.

    The third factor, he said, was the great power conflict internationally.

    “No longer is the United States, the sole dominant power. So, we have a great rivalry between China and the United States. And that is having economically disruptive effects. It makes the supply chains more difficult and so on. And that is adding to the inflation. And of course, it creates other worries as well. So, it’s the interaction of those three things that is determining it,” he said.

    Interest rate

    Dalio suggested interest rate curve would depend on what the Fed’s looking to do. “I think we’re going to have an inflation rate that is probably in the vicinity of 5 per cent-ish. But it’s a very uncertain inflation rate because of all the shocks that we have around it. But let’s say 4.5-5 per cent is probably what it settles down at after this tightening. The real rate, in other words, the rate above inflation that the interest rate is now at is in the vicinity of 1.5 per cent, a little bit higher than that. So that would mean they would be probably approaching a 6 per cent, risk-free rate,” Dalio said.

    The Federal Reserve would put the short-term rate up towards that level, Dalio said, adding the level of interest rate was harmful and damaging to the economy.

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  • Ray Dalio says he’s changed his mind and cash is no longer trash as an investment

    Ray Dalio says he’s changed his mind and cash is no longer trash as an investment

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