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The Rockets have been on an upward trajectory the last three seasons finishing second in the Western Conference in the 2024-25 season before bowing out in the first round of the playoffs. It’s a far cry from three straight seasons of absolute misery and high draft picks. But, as the organization would say, improving is not enough. They feel like they are now ready for actual postseason contention in a stacked conference.
GM Rafael Stone did his part in acquiring Kevin Durant from Phoenix this summer while also adding wing Dorian Finney-Smith and bringing back veterans like Fred VanVleet and Aaron Holiday. Now, it will be up to head coach Ime Udoka to figure out how to blend this very talented, but slightly off-kilter lineup to try and top where he took his squad last season.
There are plenty of questions to be answered about the upcoming season. Let’s try to answer a few of them.
How do they make up for the loss of VanVleet?
The Rockets are a big-heavy team. It makes them formidable defensively and on the glass, but they are less flexible in the backcourt. Losing VanVleet the week before training camp to a torn ACL makes an already light guard group look downright concerning. FVV was critical for the team less because of his pure numbers and more because of the steadiness he brought on the floor. Prior to his arrival, the Rockets were one of the worst turnover teams in basketball. Since, they have been near the top of the league. He really does make that substantial of a difference.
Now, this will be more of a point-by-committee situation with Amen Thompson (more on him in a moment) and Reed Sheppard (also him) splitting most of the duties while sprinkling in Aaron Holiday. Can they re-create FVV in the aggregate? We’ll see.
Are they really going to go that big? Really?
The “double big” lineup of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams was effective down the stretch last season. Udoka has already said they plan to employ it liberally this year, especially now that they’ve added Clint Capela and Durant. But how big will they go, exactly. Udoka has hinted at a lineup of Adams, Sengun, Durant, Jabari Smith, Jr. and Amen Thompson. They could sub in Tari Eason or Dorian Finney-Smith at one of the wings as well.
While not a row of seven footers, they might as well be with their collective wingspan. The issue is whether or not that lineup would be effective for more than short bursts of time. Defensively, they would almost certainly need to employ mostly a zone defense, which can be susceptible to good shooting teams and those that work the baseline. It will be fascinating to watch, but hard to imagine they could use this as much as some might believe.
Is Reed Sheppard ready?
It feels a little strange to wonder how a player who was mostly an afterthought last season could be the lynchpin to the Rockets success this year, but when VanVleet went down, Sheppard became their most viable option for a traditional point guard currently on the roster. While he was the third pick in the 2024 draft, it was a pretty weak draft year. In other years, he might have gone later in the first round.
Still, Sheppard has a lot of the qualities the Rockets need in a point. He’s a great passer and ball handler. He shot lights out from three in college. And he’s got very quick hands which made him one of the better pickpockets in the draft. But, is he ready? After limited minutes in his rookie season, he’ll get the first crack at holding down a big chunk of the point guard duties this year. The Rockets probably won’t fall off the edge of the Earth if he isn’t up for the challenge, but if he is, and becomes a quality NBA guard this year, their ceiling seems almost unlimited.
Will Amen Thompson become a superstar?
The other likely guy to see time at the point is Thompson, a wonderfully athletic, gifted player who made All-NBA First Team Defense last season. He is still working hard to improve his outside shot and, if he does, he has the stuff to be one of the best players in the world.
This is his third year and he’s already showing signs of being that guy. The Rockets will need him for a lot this year. Defense, getting to the rim, finding open players on offense, and, most importantly, helping to keep the team together. It’s a heavy burden he will have to carry, but he seems up to the task.
How healthy will Durant remain?
Since missing all of the 2019-20 COVID season to injury, Durant has struggled to remain healthy and on the floor. In the four seasons after 2020, he played in 35, 55, 47 and 39 games. The last two, however, he’s played in 75 and 62 games, which is about as healthy as he has been since they year before his season lost to injury.
At 37, he is still one of the best in basketball (ranked 15th by ESPN this year), but there is no question the Rockets will do everything they can to maximize Durant’s longevity for the playoffs, including resting him when needed. If he plays in 60-plus games this year, it would be a victory for everyone. The key is having him healthy for the postseason.
Could Stone make another huge deal during the season?
The Rockets are absolutely loaded with tradable assets, more than any other contending team in the NBA, thanks to Stone’s clever managing of the team’s draft and player salaries. They own two first round picks from Phoenix and a pick swap with Brooklyn over the next few years when both of those teams promise to be awful.
Additionally, they have some young players on reasonable contracts including Smith and Eason. If the Rockets wanted to make a big swing during the season for another franchise-level talent, they probably could. Obviously, with the VanVleet injury, it would be tempting to eyeball backcourt help if they need it. For now, expect them to stand pat and wait. They can afford it and understand they will likely be repaid for their patience.
This article appears in Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025.
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Jeff Balke
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