ReportWire

Tag: public security

  • Russia’s Ambitious Plans in Africa Are Unraveling

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    Russia, not long ago a rising military force in Africa, is now struggling to maintain its footprint on the continent.

    The Kremlin’s new official guns-for-hire military force, the Africa Corps, has failed to replicate the financial success and political sway once held by Russia’s private Wagner Group mercenary outfit. And some of Wagner’s own African ventures have unraveled since 2023 when its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, rebelled against President Vladimir Putin and then died when an explosive device blew the wing off his plane at 28,000 feet. 

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    Benoit Faucon

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  • Denmark Says New Drone Flights Over Military Base, Airports Are ‘Hybrid Attack’

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    Denmark said it had suffered a hybrid attack by a professional actor after drones were observed over several airports late on Wednesday, the second time in less than a week that unmanned aircraft have disrupted air traffic in the Nordic nation, a NATO member.

    Drones were spotted over at least four airports in the western part of the country, including a military air base housing most of Denmark’s F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. 

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    Sune Engel Rasmussen

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  • Kenya Uses U.S.-Funded Antiterrorism Courts for Political Crackdown

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    NAIROBI, Kenya—The Kenyan government is using special antiterrorism courts—established with U.S. money to combat al Qaeda—to threaten political dissidents with decades in prison.

    Prosecutors have charged 75 Kenyans with terrorism in recent weeks, the majority for allegedly destroying government property during street demonstrations against President William Ruto.

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    Caroline Kimeu

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  • Oil prices jump after drone attack kills U.S. troops, escalating Mideast crisis

    Oil prices jump after drone attack kills U.S. troops, escalating Mideast crisis

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    Oil futures popped higher Sunday evening, after a drone attack that killed three U.S. service members in northern Jordan, blamed by the White House on Iran-backed militants, marked a major escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

    West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery
    CL00,
    +1.22%

    CL.1,
    +1.22%

    CLH24,
    +1.22%

    was up $1.09, or 1.4%, at $79.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March Brent crude
    BRN00,
    +1.15%

    BRNH24,
    +1.14%
    ,
    the global benchmark, gained $1.11, or 1.3%, to trade at $84.66 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

    Much will ultimately depend on the U.S. response and whether Iran takes action aimed at shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch on Sunday afternoon.

    “We are on the cusp of this escalating, which could seriously impact the flow of crude oil,” he said.

    Three U.S. service members were killed and more than two dozen injured in a drone strike on a U.S. base in northeast Jordan, according to U.S. Central Command. They were the first U.S. fatalities in months of attacks on U.S. bases by Iran-backed militias since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October.

    President Joe Biden attributed the Sunday attack to an Iran-backed militia group and said the U.S. “will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner (of) our choosing.” News reports said U.S. officials were still working to conclusively identify the precise group responsible for the attack, but have assessed that one of several Iranian-backed groups is to blame.

    Some congressional Republicans called for direct retaliation on Iran.

    “We must respond to these repeated attacks by Iran & its proxies by striking directly against Iranian targets & its leadership. The Biden administration’s responses thus far have only invited more attacks. It is time to act swiftly and decisively for the whole world to see,” wrote Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the senior Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, in a post on X.

    Oil futures rallied last week to their highest since November, but with gains attributed in part to production outages in the U.S. and more upbeat expectations around economic growth.

    “Crude already has the wind to its back, so this will only offer further upside,” Chris Weston, head of research at Australian brokerage Pepperstone told MarketWatch in an email.

    With the U.S. election later this year, “Biden needs to strike a balance between increasing aggression that potentially puts U.S. serviceman lives in danger and could potentially raise the cost of living…while also showing a defiant stance that shows his resolve against terror,” Weston said.

    Oil prices have seen short-lived rallies around developments in the Middle East since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, but have failed to build in a lasting geopolitical risk premium. West Texas Intermediate crude
    CL00,
    +1.22%

    CL.1,
    +1.22%
    ,
    the U.S. benchmark, remains around $15 below its 2023 peak in the mid-$90s set in late September. Brent crude
    BRN00,
    +1.15%
    ,
    the global benchmark, pushed back above $80 a barrel last week.

    Attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants on Red Sea shipping have forced a rerouting of tankers and cargo ships. For crude, that’s had implications for the physical market but hasn’t interrupted the flow of crude from the Middle East.

    A move by Iran aimed at closing off the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s biggest oil-transportation chokepoint, remains a top worry.

    The strait is a narrow waterway that links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, the waterway is only 21 miles wide, and the width of the shipping lane in either direction is just two miles, separated by a two-mile buffer zone.


    Energy Information Administration

    Around 21 million barrels a day of crude moved through the waterway in the first half of 2023, equivalent to around a fifth of daily global consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

    The U.S. stock market has largely looked past Middle East tensions, with the S&P 500
    SPX
    returning to record territory this month, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    has also set a series of records.

    Dow futures
    YM00,
    -0.20%

    were off 94 points, or 0.3% as Asian trading got under way, while S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    -0.22%

    fell 12 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq-100 futures
    NQ00,
    -0.24%

    lost 0.3%.

    Read: Stock-market rally faces Fed, tech earnings and jobs data in make-or-break week

    Away from oil, there were no signs of a significant surge in demand for instruments that traditionally serve as havens during periods of increased geopolitical tension. Futures on U.S. Treasurys
    TY00,
    +0.21%

    saw a modest rise of 0.2%, while the U.S. dollar
    DXY
    was little changed versus major rivals and gold futures
    GC00,
    +0.41%

    ticked up 0.4%.

    Escalating Middle East tensions won’t go unnoticed by traders, but probably doesn’t warrant a “solid derisking,” Weston said, particularly with investors facing a barrage of major market events in the week ahead.

    For U.S.-focused investors, the week ahead features a Federal Reserve policy meeting, earnings from tech industry heavyweights and a crucial December jobs report.

    The Middle East situation “won’t take us too far off the rates, growth track, but we have an eye on whether this escalates,” Weston said.

    —Associated Press contributed.



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  • U.K. police arrest six people in plan to disrupt London Stock Exchange

    U.K. police arrest six people in plan to disrupt London Stock Exchange

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    Six people are in custody on Sunday as Metropolitan Police detectives investigate a plot to disrupt the London Stock Exchange, authorities said.

    The police said the arrests were made in Brighton, Liverpool, and London.

    In a statement, the Metropolitan Police in the U.K. said the allegations are that activists from the Palestine Action group were intending to target the LSE on Monday, “causing damage and ‘locking on’ in an effort to prevent the building opening for trading.”

    A representative from the LSE said they had no comment but noted that no trading takes place at London Stock Exchange itself. Equity trading is fully electronic, and there hasn’t been a physical trading floor since 1986.

    A representative from Palestine Action said in an email: “The London Stock Exchange raise billions of pounds for apartheid Israel and trade shares in weapons manufacturers which arm Israel’s genocide of the Palestinian people. Whilst Britain remains complicit in the brutal colonisation of Palestine, our direct action campaign will not be deterred.” 

    The arrests were made earlier Sunday, the police said. The Metropolitan Police added that they are in touch with City of London Police and other forces in the U.K. after a suggestion that this was one part of a planned week of action “to ensure that appropriate resources are in place to deal with any disruption.”

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  • U.S., British launch massive retaliatory strike against Houthi rebels in Yemen

    U.S., British launch massive retaliatory strike against Houthi rebels in Yemen

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    WASHINGTON — The U.S. and British militaries were bombing more than a dozen sites used by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen on Thursday, in a massive retaliatory strike using warship-launched Tomahawk missiles and fighter jets, several U.S. officials told The Associated Press. The military targets included logistical hubs, air defense systems and weapons storage locations, they said.

    Associated Press journalists in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, heard four explosions early Friday local time but saw no sign of warplanes. Two residents of Hodieda, Amin Ali Saleh and Hani Ahmed, said they heard five strong explosions. Hodieda lies on the Red Sea and is the largest port city controlled by the Houthis.

    Oil prices
    CL.1,
    +1.99%

    jumped more than 2% immediately after news of the attacks, on fears that a wider Middle East war could imperil oil production and shipments.

    The strikes marked the first U.S. military response to what has been a persistent campaign of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships since the start of the Israel-Hamas. The coordinated military assault comes just a week after the White House and a host of partner nations issued a final warning to the Houthis to cease the attacks or face potential military action. The officials confirmed the strikes on condition of anonymity to discuss military operations.

    The warning appeared to have had at least some short-lived impact, as attacks stopped for several days. On Tuesday, however, the Houthi rebels fired their largest-ever barrage of drones and missiles targeting shipping in the Red Sea, with U.S. and British ships and American fighter jets responding by shooting down 18 drones, two cruise missiles and an anti-ship missile. On Thursday, the Houthis fired an anti-ship ballistic missile into the Gulf of Aden, which was seen by a commercial ship but did not hit the ship.

    The rebels, who have carried out 27 attacks involving dozens of drones and missiles just since Nov. 19, said Thursday that any attack by American forces on its sites in Yemen will spark a fierce military response.

    “The response to any American attack will not only be at the level of the operation that was recently carried out with more than 24 drones and several missiles,” said Abdel Malek al-Houthi, the group’s supreme leader, during an hour-long speech. “It will be greater than that.”

    The Houthis say their assaults are aimed at stopping Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But their targets increasingly have little or no connection to Israel and imperil a crucial trade route linking Asia and the Middle East with Europe.

    Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution Wednesday that demanded the Houthis immediately cease the attacks and implicitly condemned their weapons supplier, Iran. It was approved by a vote of 11-0 with four abstentions — by Russia, China, Algeria and Mozambique.

    Britain’s participation in the strikes underscored the Biden administration’s effort to use a broad international coalition to battle the Houthis, rather than appear to be going it alone. More than 20 nations are already participating in a U.S.-led maritime mission to increase ship protection in the Red Sea.

    U.S. officials for weeks had declined to signal when international patience would run out and they would strike back at the Houthis, even as multiple commercial vessels were struck by missiles and drones, prompting companies to look at rerouting their ships.

    On Wednesday, however, U.S. officials again warned of consequences.

    “I’m not going to telegraph or preview anything that might happen,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters during a stop in Bahrain. He said the U.S. has made clear “that if this continues as it did yesterday, there will be consequences. And I’m going to leave it at that.”

    The Biden administration’s reluctance over the past several months to retaliate reflected political sensitivities and stemmed largely from broader worries about upending the shaky truce in Yemen and triggering a wider conflict in the region. The White House wants to preserve the truce and has been wary of taking action in Yemen that could open up another war front.

    MarketWatch contributed to this report.

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  • Supreme Court to decide if Trump can be kept off 2024 election ballots

    Supreme Court to decide if Trump can be kept off 2024 election ballots

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    WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court said Friday it will decide whether former President Donald Trump can be kept off the ballot because of his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, inserting the court squarely in the 2024 presidential campaign.

    The justices acknowledged the need to reach a decision quickly, as voters will soon begin casting presidential-primary ballots across the country. The court agreed to take up a case from Colorado stemming from Trump’s role in the events that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    Arguments will be held in early February.

    The court will be considering for the first time the meaning and reach of a provision of the 14th Amendment barring some people who “engaged in insurrection” from holding public office. The amendment was adopted in 1868, following the Civil War. It has been so rarely used that the nation’s highest court had no previous occasion to interpret it.

    Colorado’s Supreme Court, by a 4-3 vote, ruled last month that Trump should not be on the Republican primary ballot. The decision was the first time the 14th Amendment was used to bar a presidential contender from the ballot.

    Trump is separately appealing to state court a ruling by Maine’s Democratic secretary of state, Shenna Bellows, that he was ineligible to appear on that state’s ballot over his role in the Capitol attack. Both the Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine secretary of state’s rulings are on hold until the appeals play out.

    Three of the nine Supreme Court justices were appointed by Trump, though they have repeatedly ruled against him in 2020 election-related lawsuits, as well as his efforts to keep documents related to Jan. 6 and prevent his tax returns from being turned over to congressional committees.

    At the same time, Justices Amy Coney Barrett, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh have been in the majority of conservative-driven decisions that overturned the five-decade-old constitutional right to abortion, expanded gun rights and struck down affirmative action in college admissions.

    Some Democratic lawmakers have called on another conservative justice, Clarence Thomas, to step aside from the case because of his wife’s support for Trump’s effort to overturn the results of the election, which he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. Thomas is unlikely to agree. He has recused himself from only one other case related to the 2020 election, involving former law clerk John Eastman, and so far the people trying to disqualify Trump haven’t asked Thomas to recuse.

    The 4-3 Colorado decision cites a ruling by Gorsuch when he was a federal judge in that state. That Gorsuch decision upheld Colorado’s move to strike a naturalized citizen from the state’s presidential ballot because he was born in Guyana and didn’t meet the constitutional requirements to run for office. The court found that Trump likewise doesn’t meet the qualifications due to his role in the U.S. Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021. That day, the Republican president had held a rally outside the White House and exhorted his supporters to “fight like hell” before they walked to the Capitol.

    The two-sentence provision in Section 3 of the 14th Amendment states that anyone who swore an oath to uphold the constitution and then “engaged in insurrection” against it is no longer eligible for state or federal office. After Congress passed an amnesty for most of the former confederates the measure targeted in 1872, the provision fell into disuse until dozens of suits were filed to keep Trump off the ballot this year. Only the one in Colorado was successful.

    Trump had asked the court to overturn the Colorado ruling without even hearing arguments. “The Colorado Supreme Court decision would unconstitutionally disenfranchise millions of voters in Colorado and likely be used as a template to disenfranchise tens of millions of voters nationwide,” Trump’s lawyers wrote.

    They argue that Trump should win on many grounds, including that the events of Jan. 6 did not constitute an insurrection. Even if it did, they wrote, Trump himself had not engaged in insurrection. They also contend that the insurrection clause does not apply to the president and that Congress must act, not individual states.

    Critics of the former president who sued in Colorado agreed that the justices should step in now and resolve the issue, as do many election law experts.

    “This case is of utmost national importance. And given the upcoming presidential-primary schedule, there is no time to wait for the issues to percolate further. The Court should resolve this case on an expedited timetable, so that voters in Colorado and elsewhere will know whether Trump is indeed constitutionally ineligible when they cast their primary ballots,” lawyers for the Colorado plaintiffs told the Supreme Court.

    The issue of whether Trump can be on the ballot is not the only matter related to the former president or Jan. 6 that has reached the high court. The justices last month declined a request from special counsel Jack Smith to swiftly take up and rule on Trump’s claims that he is immune from prosecution in a case charging him with plotting to overturn the 2020 presidential election, though the issue could be back before the court soon depending on the ruling of a Washington-based appeals court.

    And the court has said that it intends to hear an appeal that could upend hundreds of charges stemming from the Capitol riot, including against Trump.

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  • Shale Is Keeping the World Awash With Oil as Conflicts Abound

    Shale Is Keeping the World Awash With Oil as Conflicts Abound

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    Updated Jan. 1, 2024 12:05 am ET

    A surprise surge in American oil and gas production and exports is helping to keep the world stocked, blunting the impact of widening conflict in the Middle East that has crimped key shipping lanes. 

    When Iranian-backed Houthi militants began launching missiles and drones at ships crossing the Red Sea near Yemen in October, many feared disruption to the vital shipping lane would drive up energy prices. But oil and gas prices this past month have sunk about 5% and 23%, respectively. 

    Copyright ©2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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  • When Colorado removed Trump from the ballot, a Supreme Court showdown looked likely. Maine removed all doubt.

    When Colorado removed Trump from the ballot, a Supreme Court showdown looked likely. Maine removed all doubt.

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    DENVER (AP) — First, Colorado’s Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trump wasn’t eligible to run for his old job in that state. Then, Maine’s secretary of state ruled the same for her state.

    Both decisions are historic. The Colorado court was the first court to apply to a presidential candidate a rarely used constitutional ban against those who “engaged in insurrection.” Maine’s secretary of state was the first top election official to unilaterally strike a presidential candidate from the ballot under that provision.

    What’s next? Can Trump be put back on the ballot?

    Both decisions are on hold while the legal process plays out. That means that Trump remains on the ballot in Colorado and Maine and that his political fate is now in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court.

    The Maine ruling will likely never take effect on its own. Its central impact is increasing pressure on the nation’s highest court to state clearly whether Trump remains eligible to run for president after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

    What’s the legal issue that could keep Trump off the ballot?

    After the Civil War, the U.S. ratified the 14th Amendment to guarantee rights to former slaves and more. It also included a two-sentence clause called Section 3, designed to keep former Confederates from regaining government power after the war.

    Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution doesn’t require a criminal conviction to take effect.

    The measure reads: “No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

    Congress did remove that disability from most Confederates in 1872, and the provision fell into disuse. But it was rediscovered after Jan. 6.

    See: Nikki Haley was asked by N.H. voter to name Civil War cause. Slavery was absent from her answer.

    How does this apply to former president Trump exactly?

    Trump is already being prosecuted for the attempt to overturn his 2020 loss that culminated with Jan. 6, but Section 3 doesn’t require a criminal conviction to take effect. Dozens of lawsuits have been filed to disqualify Trump, claiming he engaged in insurrection on Jan. 6 and is no longer qualified to run for office.

    All the suits failed until the Colorado ruling. And dozens of secretaries of state have been asked to remove him from the ballot. All said they didn’t have the authority to do so without a court order — until Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’s decision.

    See: As Colorado court bars Trump from ballot, poll finds 62% of GOP voters would want him as nominee even with more legal woes

    Also: Police investigating ‘incidents’ against Colorado justices after Trump removed from state’s ballot

    The Supreme Court has never ruled on Section 3. It’s likely to do so in considering appeals of the Colorado decision — the state Republican Party has already appealed, and Trump is expected to file his own shortly.

    Bellows’s ruling cannot be appealed straight to the U.S. Supreme Court — it has to be appealed up the judicial chain first, starting with a trial court in Maine.

    The Maine decision does force the high court’s hand, though. It was already highly likely the justices would hear the Colorado case, but Maine removes any doubt.

    Trump lost Colorado in 2020, and he doesn’t need to win it again to garner an Electoral College majority next year. But he won one of Maine’s four Electoral College votes in 2020 by winning the state’s 2nd Congressional District, so Bellows’s decision would have a direct impact on his odds next November.

    Until the high court rules, any state could adopt its own standard on whether Trump, or anyone else, can be on the ballot. That’s the sort of legal chaos the court is supposed to prevent.

    What is Trump’s argument?

    Trump’s lawyers have several arguments against the push to disqualify him. First, it’s not clear Section 3 applies to the president — an early draft mentioned the office, but it was taken out, and the language “an officer of the United States” elsewhere in the Constitution doesn’t mean the president, they contend.

    Second, even if it does apply to the presidency, they say, this is a “political” question best decided by voters, not unelected judges. Third, if judges do want to get involved, the lawyers assert, they’re violating Trump’s rights to a fair legal procedure by flatly ruling he’s ineligible without some sort of fact-finding process like a lengthy criminal trial. Fourth, they argue, Jan. 6 wasn’t an insurrection under the meaning of Section 3 — it was more like a riot. Finally, even if it was an insurrection, they say, Trump wasn’t involved in it — he was merely using his free speech rights.

    Of course, the lawyers who want to disqualify Trump have arguments, too.

    The main one is that the case is actually very simple: Jan. 6 was an insurrection, Trump incited it, and he’s disqualified.

    Why has this process taken so long?

    The attack of Jan. 6, 2021, occurred nearly three years ago, but the challenges weren’t “ripe,” to use the legal term, until Trump petitioned to get onto state ballots this fall.

    But the length of time also gets at another issue — no one has really wanted to rule on the merits of the case. Most judges have dismissed the lawsuits because of technical issues, including that courts don’t have the authority to tell parties whom to put on their primary ballots. Secretaries of state have dodged, too, usually telling those who ask them to ban Trump that they don’t have the authority to do so unless ordered by a court.

    No one can dodge anymore. Legal experts have cautioned that, if the Supreme Court doesn’t clearly resolve the issue, it could lead to chaos in November — or in January 2025, if Trump wins the election. Imagine, they say, if the high court ducks the issue or says it’s not a decision for the courts to make, and Democrats win a narrow majority in Congress. Would they seat Trump or declare he’s ineligible under Section 3?

    Why was this action taken in Maine?

    Maine has an unusual process in which a secretary of state is required to hold a public hearing on challenges to politicians’ spots on the ballot and then issue a ruling. Multiple groups of Maine voters, including a bipartisan clutch of former state lawmakers, filed such a challenge, triggering Bellows’s decision.

    Bellows is a Democrat and the former head of the Maine chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union. Trump’s attorneys asked her to recuse herself from the case, citing social-media posts calling Jan. 6 an “insurrection” and bemoaning Trump’s acquittal in his impeachment trial over the attack.

    She refused, saying she wasn’t ruling based on personal opinions. But the precedent she sets is notable, critics say. In theory, election officials in every state could decide a candidate is ineligible based on a novel legal theory about Section 3 and end their candidacies.

    Conservatives argue that Section 3 could apply to Vice President Kamala Harris, for example — it was used to block from office even those who donated small sums to individual Confederates. Couldn’t it be used against Harris, they say, because she raised money for those arrested in the unrest after the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in 2020?

    Is this a partisan issue?

    Bellows is a Democrat, and all the justices on the Colorado Supreme Court were appointed by Democrats. Six of the 9 U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Republicans, three by Trump himself.

    But courts don’t always split on predictable partisan lines. The Colorado ruling was 4-3 — so three Democratic appointees disagreed with barring Trump. Several prominent legal conservatives have championed the use of Section 3 against the former president.

    Now we’ll see how the high court handles it.

    Read on:

    Trump’s name can appear on ballot in Michigan, says state’s top court

    Georgia election workers sue Rudy Giuliani again, seek to bar him from repeating lies about them

    Trump’s Republican rivals rally to his defense after Colorado ballot ruling

    Supreme Court to hear case that could undermine obstruction charges against hundreds of Jan. 6 defendants

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  • Oil prices post first weekly gain in 8 weeks amid ship attacks in Red Sea

    Oil prices post first weekly gain in 8 weeks amid ship attacks in Red Sea

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    Oil futures fell on Friday, but finished off the session’s lows to eke out a gain for the week — the first for U.S. and global benchmark crude prices in eight weeks.

    Attacks on ships traveling through the Red Sea, blamed on Yemen’s Houthi rebels, raised the potential for disruptions to the transport of oil and other goods, providing some support for prices.

    Oil saw larger declines early Friday after a Federal Reserve official walked back dovish comments made earlier this week by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, helping to strengthen the U.S. dollar.

    Price action

    • West Texas Intermediate crude for January
      CL00,
      +0.49%

      CL.1,
      +0.49%

      CLF24,
      +0.49%

      declined by 15 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $71.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices ending 0.3% higher for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    • February Brent crude
      BRN00,
      +0.52%

      BRNG24,
      +0.52%
      ,
      the global benchmark, fell 6 cents, or nearly 0.1%, to $76.55 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, settling 0.9% higher for the week.

    • January gasoline
      RBF24,
      -0.16%

      added 0.9% to $2.14 a gallon, up almost 4.3% for the week, while January heating oil
      HOF24,
      +0.20%

      climbed 1.1% to $2.62 a gallon on Nymex, marking a weekly rise of 1.5%.

    • Natural gas for January delivery
      NGF24,
      -0.88%

      gained 4.1% to $2.49 per million British thermal units, but still logged a weekly loss of 3.5%.

    Price support

    Danish shipping company A.P. Moeller-Maersk
    MAERSK.A,
    +7.52%

    said it will pause all of its container shipments through the Red Sea until further notice and detour them around Africa, Reuters and Bloomberg reported Friday, amid rising risks to its fleet posed by Houthi militants.

    The Red Sea is “one of the hot pockets of seaborne crude flows,” accounting for approximately 10% of global volume, said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners. “Although the attackers lack sophistication … shipping crews are even less sophisticated, making them easy targets.” 

    A potential blockage of the Red Sea route would be “chaotic indeed, but not nearly as detrimental as blockage of [the] Strait of Hormuz near Iran, for which there is no viable alternative,” Raj said.

    Read from the AP: How are Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea affecting global trade?

    For now, there is concern over higher insurance costs for these ships, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group.

    With ships in the Red Sea continuing to be at high risk, ‘it won’t take that much for the market’ to see oil prices spike if an oil tanker should be hit.


    — Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group

    Obviously, the risk to oil supply is large, although “so far, most of the attacks have been on cargo ships and not oil-related ships,” Flynn told MarketWatch.

    However, as ships in the Red Sea continue to be at high risk, “it won’t take that much for the market” to see oil prices spike if an oil tanker is hit, Flynn said.

    For the week, both U.S. and global benchmark crude prices posted gains.

    “The combination of lower U.S. inventories, stronger economic data, and improved OPEC compliance [with production cuts] for the month of November were the highlights of the week,” said Peter McNally, global head of sector analysts at Third Bridge.

    “However, there are ongoing seasonal challenges that forced OPEC to sustain production cuts through the first quarter of 2024, so it remains to be seen if they have done enough to prevent inventories from continuing their upward trend,” he said.

    Read The Year Ahead: Why oil may not see a return $100 a barrel in 2024

    Price pressures

    Oil had been trading lower early Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams told CNBC that it is “premature” to discuss whether it is time to cut interest rates. “We aren’t really talking about cutting interest rates right now,” Williams said.

    That ran contrary to Powell’s comments Wednesday that Fed officials were starting to discuss when to cut rates.

    After the euphoria in the U.S. stock market over the Powell “pivot party” on Wednesday, we got a “wake-up call” from Williams when he pushed back on market expectations for a March rate cut, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said in market commentary.

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  • Israel fighter jets begin striking Gaza strip targets again as Hamas truce expires

    Israel fighter jets begin striking Gaza strip targets again as Hamas truce expires

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    JERUSALEM (AP) — The Israeli military said Friday that its fighter jets have begun striking Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, in the clearest sign yet that the war has resumed with full force after a weeklong truce.

    The announcement came 30 minutes after the cease-fire expired at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) Friday.

    Earlier Friday, Israel accused Hamas of having violated the terms of the cease-fire, including by firing rockets toward Israel from Gaza.

    The temporary truce in the Israel-Hamas war expired Friday morning, without immediate word from mediator Qatar on an extension, raising the possibility of renewed fighting.

    The halt in fighting began a week ago, on Nov. 24. It initially lasted for four days, and then was extended for several days with the help of Qatar and fellow mediator Egypt.

    During the week-long truce, Hamas and other militants in Gaza released more than 100 hostages, most of them Israelis, in return for 240 Palestinians freed from prisons in Israel. Virtually all of those freed were women and children.

    Reaching agreements on swaps appeared to be growing harder as most women and children held in Gaza had already been released.

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  • Hamas releases first group of hostages under truce agreement with Israel

    Hamas releases first group of hostages under truce agreement with Israel

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    DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — Hamas released the first batch of hostages under a ceasefire deal that began Friday, including 13 Israelis who have been held in the Gaza Strip since the militant group staged a raid on Israel nearly seven weeks ago, according to officials and media reports.

    Twelve Thai nationals were also released, according to Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.

    Dozens of Palestinian prisoners are expected to be freed by Israel.

    The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began Friday, setting the stage for the exchange and allowing sorely needed aid to start flowing into Gaza.

    Don’t miss: A secret line of communication and a pivotal U.S. role: How the hostage-release deal evolved — and nearly fell apart — in final days

    There were no reports of fighting after the truce began. The deal offered some relief for Gaza’s 2.3 million people, who have endured weeks of Israeli bombardment and dwindling supplies of basic necessities, as well as for families in Israel worried about loved ones taken captive during Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, which triggered the war.

    The truce raised hopes of eventually winding down the conflict, which has flattened vast swaths of Gaza, fueled a surge of violence in the occupied West Bank and stirred fears of a wider conflagration across the Middle East. Israel, however, has said it is determined to resume its massive offensive once the ceasefire ends.

    Under the deal, Gaza’s ruling Hamas group pledged to free at least 50 of the about 240 hostages it and other militants took in the Oct. 7 raid. In exchange, Hamas said Israel would free 150 Palestinian prisoners.

    It was not expected that captive Americans would be among those released late Friday afternoon, but the Biden White House said in a statement that it continued to work to ensure that U.S. nationals, including an Israeli-American girl who turns 4 on Friday, are among the initial 50.

    Both sides agreed to release women and children first, in stages starting Friday, and as planned 13 Israelis were released, according to Israeli media, citing security officials. An Israeli official, meanwhile, confirmed that the Thai captives left Gaza and were en route to a hospital in Israel.

    The official spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to discuss the releases with the media.

    Israel said the deal calls for the truce to be extended an extra day for every additional 10 hostages freed.

    Early in the day, ambulances were seen arriving at the Hatzerim air base in southern Israel, preparing for the release. Those freed will then be taken to hospitals for assessment and treatment, Israeli officials said.

    See: Ambulances positioned at Israeli military base ahead of Hamas hostage release

    Among the Israeli citizens freed some have a second nationality, according to a Hamas official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss details with the media.

    Israel’s Justice Ministry published a list of 300 Palestinian prisoners eligible for release. Thirty-nine — 24 women, including some convicted of attempted murder for attacks on Israeli forces, and 15 teenagers jailed for offenses like throwing stones — were expected to be freed Friday, Palestinian authorities said.

    On Friday, the truce brought quiet after weeks in which Gaza saw heavy bombardment and artillery fire daily as well as street fighting as ground troops advanced through neighborhoods in the north. The last report of air-raid sirens in Israeli towns near the territory came shortly after the truce took effect.

    Not long after, four tankers with fuel and four with cooking gas entered the Gaza Strip from Egypt, Israel said.

    Israel has agreed to allow the delivery of 130,000 liters, or 34,340 gallons, of fuel per day during the truce — still only a small portion of Gaza’s estimated daily needs of more than 1 million liters.

    For most of the past seven weeks of war, Israel had barred the entry of fuel to Gaza, claiming it could be used by Hamas for military purposes — though it has occasionally allowed small amounts in.

    U.N. aid agencies pushed back against the claim, saying fuel deliveries were closely supervised and urgently needed to avert a humanitarian catastrophe since fuel is required to run generators that power water-treatment facilities, hospitals and other critical infrastructure.

    The Israeli military dropped leaflets over southern Gaza, warning hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians who sought refuge there not to return to their homes in the territory’s north, the focus of Israel’s ground offensive.

    Even though Israel warned that it would block such attempts, hundreds of Palestinians could be seen walking north Friday.

    Two were shot and killed by Israeli troops and another 11 were wounded. An Associated Press journalist saw the two bodies and the wounded as they arrived at a hospital.

    Sofian Abu Amer, who had fled Gaza City, said he decided to risk heading north to check on his home.

    “We don’t have enough clothes, food and drinks,” he said. “The situation is disastrous. It’s better for a person to die.”

    The hope is that “momentum” from the deal will lead to an “end to this violence,” said Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, which served as a mediator along with the United States and Egypt.

    But hours before it came into effect, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was quoted telling troops that their respite would be short and that the war would resume with intensity and continue for at least two more months.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also vowed to continue the war to destroy Hamas’s military capabilities, end its 16-year rule in Gaza and return all the hostages.

    Israel’s northern border with Lebanon was also quiet on Friday, a day after the militant Hezbollah group, an ally of Hamas, carried out the highest number of attacks in one day since fighting there began Oct. 8.

    Hezbollah is not a party to the ceasefire agreement but was widely expected to halt its attacks.

    The war erupted when several thousand Hamas militants stormed into southern Israel, killing at least 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking scores of hostages, including babies, women and older adults, as well as soldiers.

    The soldiers will only be released in exchange for all Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, according to the Islamic Jihad militant group, which is reportedly holding about 40 hostages.

    It is not clear how many of the hostages are currently serving in the military or whether the militants also consider reserve soldiers to be “military hostages.”

    According to the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club, an advocacy group, Israel is currently holding 7,200 Palestinians on security charges or convictions, including about 2,000 arrested since the start of the war.

    The Israeli offensive has killed more than 13,300 Palestinians, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-ruled Gaza, which resumed its detailed count of casualties in Gaza after stopping for weeks because of the health system’s collapse in the north.

    The ministry says some 6,000 people have been reported missing, feared buried under rubble.

    The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and militants in its death tolls. Women and minors have consistently made up around two-thirds of the dead, though the new number was not broken down. The figure does not include updated numbers from hospitals in the north.

    Israel says it has killed thousands of Hamas fighters, without presenting evidence for its count.

    MarketWatch contributed.

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  • How the Hamas hostage-release deal evolved — and nearly fell apart — in final days

    How the Hamas hostage-release deal evolved — and nearly fell apart — in final days

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The negotiations hardly ran smoothly. But, in the end, persistence paid off.

    Six weeks ago, not long after Hamas killed more than 1,200 people in Israel and took scores of others hostage in a surprise assault, the government of Qatar quietly reached out to the United States to discuss how to secure the release of those who were taken captive by the militant group.

    But…

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  • Here’s how much aid the U.S. gives to Israel — and why it may get billions of dollars more

    Here’s how much aid the U.S. gives to Israel — and why it may get billions of dollars more

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    Israel’s military campaign against Hamas has entered its sixth week, and the country is facing a growing backlash against the humanitarian toll of the war as well as uncertainty over the fate of a U.S. military aid package that has stalled amid partisan bickering in Washington, D.C.

    President Joe Biden has requested $14.3 billion in military assistance for Israel as it seeks to destroy Hamas after the group killed 1,200 Israeli citizens and took more than 200 hostage last month. More than 12,000 Palestinians have died in…

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  • How the Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco could help prevent a world war

    How the Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco could help prevent a world war

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    President Joe Biden will meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping near San Francisco Wednesday, and hanging over the summit is the threat of war over the island of Taiwan, a conflict that would likely cripple the world economy and plunge the U.S. and its allies into a devastating global conflict.

    Experts are divided on how Biden can best avoid such an outcome, but there is a consensus that a war with China would be extremely costly in economic, political and human terms. China has long seen self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province.

    Also read: Biden says his goal for Xi meeting is to get U.S.-China communications back to normal

    “The U.S. Air Force and Navy would have to operate in an environment unlike anything they’ve seen since World War II,” said Mark Cancian, a former Marine Corps colonel, Defense Department official and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

    Earlier this year, Cancian led a wargame simulation of what would happen if China attempted an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and found that if the U.S. intervened to defend the island, it would likely lead to the loss of dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and 15,000 U.S. casualties in just the first month of the war.

    Other experts argue that this is too optimistic a scenario. Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Engagement program at the think tank Defense Priorities, criticized the war game in a recent panel discussion as too optimistic in its estimate of the forces China would bring to bear in a Taiwan invasion, arguing that the Chinese would use their coast guard and merchant marine as well as military vessels to invade the island.

    “The idea that we would have anywhere near the munitions to sink tens of thousands of ships that would be involved is a major fallacy,” he said, adding that a war with China would make the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza “look like small brushfires.”

    Biden and Xi last met about a year ago in Indonesia, and the U.S. leader at the time told his Chinese counterpart that he objected to China’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive actions” toward Taiwan. Speaking with reporters on Nov. 9, a senior Biden administration official said the U.S. is concerned about “a ramping up of military activities around Taiwan in ways that are unprecedented, that are dangerous, that are provocative.”

    Now see: Taiwan says more than 100 Chinese warplanes flew toward the island in past day

    Economic fallout

    The CSIS report underscores the damage that U.S. armed forces and those of its allies would suffer in a war with China, but the economic fallout would also have a profound affect on Americans at home.

    “It’s almost hard to calculate the just how bad a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be economically,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former National Security Council official under President George W. Bush.

    Barron’s: China’s clout undimmed as U.S. companies line up to meet Xi Jinping. Why it’s a two-way street.

    He noted that because of Taiwan’s central importance in the supply chain for advanced semiconductors
    SMH,
    it could grind to a halt markets for advanced electronic devices as well as consumer goods like automobiles that increasingly rely on computer chips.

    “I think we’d be looking at a global financial crash that’s more in line with what we’ve seen in World War I and World War II than anything we’ve seen recently,” he said.

    Market observers have latched onto the idea that China’s recent economic woes make it less likely that it will behave aggressively on the global stage.

    “If Chinese consumers have been spooked by COVID lockdowns and a cascading property collapse, imagine how an escalating confrontation might shatter their outlook,” wrote Christopher Smart, managing partner at Arbroath Group, in a recent note.

    But some U.S. policymakers disagree, including Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, chairman of the House select committee on competition with China, who said at a recent event that it’s “plausible that as China confronts serious economic and demographic issues, Xi Jinping could get more risk accepting, and could get less predictable and do something very stupid.”

    Biden’s task

    The foreign policy community in Washington is divided over what the best strategy for deterring a Chinese invasion, with some emphasizing restraint and others the need to show strength in the face of a progressively belligerent Xi Jinping.

    “Taiwan is increasingly discussed as being a critical strategic location for the United States that it must defend and can’t allow to fall to China because it will have a domino effect across the region,” said Michael Swaine, a China expert and senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

    He added that this is a departure from the stance the U.S. adopted in 1979 when it established official relations with the People’s Republic of China, which was that it does not seek Taiwanese independence and would not stand in the way of a peaceful reunification.

    Biden has underscored this drift with several statements in recent years that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to try to take it by force, a change from the so-called strategic ambiguity that has guided U.S. policy in the past.

    Swain argues that the Biden administration must do more to foster communication with China on a broad set of issues and take seriously Chinese concerns that the U.S. alliance system in Asia is seeking to contain Chinese growth with military means.

    Others argue that Xi Jinping is a rational actor and U.S. efforts to foster alliances in the region are necessary to show China that a Taiwanese invasion would be costly and potentially threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s rule.

    “There’s a big difference between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin,” AEI’s Cooper said. “Most experts don’t see Xi as a risk taker, and we need to be doing everything we can to have the deterrence capability to convince him not to start a conflict.”

    The summit

    It’s unlikely that the public will will see evidence from Wednesday’s meeting of thawing tensions over the Taiwan issue, as the two sides have already said there will be no joint statement issued, Swaine of the Quincy Institute said.

    “They will repeat their talking points on Taiwan and move on,” he said. “But it’s possible we could see them state very clearly their commitment to resuming a crisis communication dialogue” between each country’s militaries, which was cut off following former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year.

    Cooper of AEI said that the reason for the meeting isn’t concrete deliverables, but mutual understanding that can result from a leader-to-leader dialogue.

    “The real value of the Xi meeting is the administration’s ability to interact with him directly and try to understand better how he’s thinking, what information he’s getting,” he said. “It’s not something you’ll see in a statement, it will be done behind closed doors and judging the aftermath will be difficult.”

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  • Foreign passport holders leaving Gaza for first time since war began

    Foreign passport holders leaving Gaza for first time since war began

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    Dozens of foreign passport holders could be seen entering the Rafah crossing from Gaza to Egypt on Wednesday. It appeared to be the first time foreign passport holders have been allowed to leave the besieged territory since the start of the Israel-Hamas war more than three weeks ago.

    Early Wednesday, providers Paltel and Jawwal reported a “complete disruption” of communications and internet services in Gaza, the second major cut in five days. Humanitarian aid agencies have warned that such blackouts severely disrupt their…

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  • Oil falls, markets hold steady as Israel launches Gaza ground offensive

    Oil falls, markets hold steady as Israel launches Gaza ground offensive

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    Oil futures dropped Sunday night as markets saw a calm opening following Israel’s launch of a ground offensive in Gaza that drew implied threats from Iran amid market fears of a wider conflict that could disrupt global crude supplies.

    Oil declined as Israel “seems to be approaching the situation with caution, which has brought a sense of relief that the worst-case scenarios may not materialize,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in a note.

    Innes, however, said investors should remember “this is likely to be a long, drawn-out affair with many false dawns.”

    West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery
    CL00,
    -1.51%

    CL.1,
    -1.51%

    CLZ23,
    -1.51%

    fell 93 cents, or 1%, to $84.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Sunday night. December Brent crude
    BRNZ23,
    -1.34%
    ,
    the global benchmark, was off $1, or 1.1%, at $89.48 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, dipping back below the $90-a-barrel threshold.

    Oil futures jumped nearly 3% on Friday, but suffered weekly declines, eroding the modest risk premium priced into the market.

    Read: 4 reasons why oil prices have only seen a modest Middle East risk premium

    Israeli solders had moved at least two miles deep into the Gaza Strip as of Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported, after beginning a delayed ground incursion into the enclave aimed at routing Hamas following its Oct, 7 attack on southern Israel that left more than 1,400 dead and saw more than 200 Israelis taken hostage.

    A sustained bombardment of the densely populated Gaza Strip by Israel has resulted in more than 8,000 casualties, according to Palestinian authorities. Israel has been under pressure by the U.S. and others to minimize civilian casualties.

    U.S. stock-index futures ticked higher, with S&P 500 futures
    ES00,
    +0.32%

    up 0.3%, while futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    YM00,
    +0.20%

    added 68 points, or 0.2%.

    The biggest worry among investors is a conflict that sees Iran become more directly involved. Iranian crude exports have rebounded from lows seen after the Trump administration withdrew the U.S. from a nuclear accord with Tehran and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

    A renewed crackdown on Iran could take up to 1 million barrels a day of crude off the market, while a spiraling conflict could see Tehran threaten transportation chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, or otherwise attack infrastructure in the region, while driving up a fear premium.

    Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, in a post on X written in English, said Saturday that Israel had “crossed the red lines, which may force everyone to take action.”

    U.S. warplanes on Friday struck two locations in eastern Syria, which the Pentagon said were linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, following a string of attacks on U.S. air bases in the region that started last week.

    U.S. stocks are poised to book another round of monthly losses as October draws to an end, though pressure has been attributed largely to a surge in Treasury yields. The S&P 500
    SPX
    last week joined the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    in correction territory, while the Dow
    DJIA
    is down more than 2% year to date.

    The rise in yields, which move opposite price, has come as U.S. government debt has failed to attract its usual haven-related buying amid rising Mideast tensions.

    See: Israel-Hamas war sees investors shun most traditional havens, except for these two

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  • Here’s what the Israel-Hamas war has done to U.S. gasoline and diesel prices

    Here’s what the Israel-Hamas war has done to U.S. gasoline and diesel prices

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    Fuel prices, with the cost of gasoline and diesel at the pump both down from a month ago, don’t appear to be fazed by the escalating risks to oil supplies in the Middle East from the Israel-Hamas war, but they are.

    The decline in fuel prices seen nationally is actually a “bit above what would be ‘normal’ for this time of year,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. However, he believes “prices won’t fall as far as they would have had the attacks on Israel not happened.”

    On Friday, the average retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.528, down 5.7 cents from a week ago, while the average retail diesel price was at $4.465 a gallon on Friday, down 7.8 cents from Sept. 30, according to data from GasBuddy.

    U.S. retail gasoline prices have fallen so far this month.


    GasBuddy

    “Geopolitical risk is now heightened, changing the calculus” for the fuel market, said Brian Milne, product manager, editor and analyst at DTN.

    ‘Seasonal component’

    In considering retail gasoline prices during the fourth quarter, the “seasonal component is less pronounced than in years past,” said Milne. Demand for gasoline tends to fall following the summer travel season. Combined with a “strong slate of refinery maintenance,” which led to less fuel supply on the market, the rise in crude oil prices has slowed the decline in fuel prices, said Milne.

    If not for the heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East, he said he might have expected to see gasoline prices decline by another 30 cents to 40 cents per gallon into late December because of lower demand.

    Retail gas prices may fall another 20 cents a gallon or more, depending on the location within the U.S., if we avoid broader hostilities in the Middle East, said Milne.

    However, if a conflict breaks out beyond Israel and the Gaza Strip, gasoline prices are likely to move sharply higher because of a spike in crude costs, he said.

    For its part, oil has seen volatile trading following the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, with futures prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude
    CLZ23,
    -0.42%

    CL.1,
    -0.39%

    higher for the week, but lower for the month.

    California prices ‘plummet’

    For now, California, which typically is among the states that pays the most per-gallon for gasoline partly due to taxes on the fuel, is seeing prices “plummet” — down nearly 60 cents in the last three weeks, said GasBuddy’s De Haan.

    “The West Coast is certainly seeing a much larger decline than is ‘normal’ and it’s due to the refinery situation now improving drastically,” as well as California’s RVP waiver, he said.

    The California Air Resources Board allowed gasoline sold or supplied for use in California that exceeds the RVP, or Reid Vapor Pressure, limits through the end of Oct. 31, marking an early transition for the state from the lower RVP gas used in the summer to help cut gasoline emissions to the higher RVP gas used in the winter.

    On Friday, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in California sold for $5.476, GasBuddy data show. That’s down 16.7 cents in just the last week.

    Gas price outlook

    De Haan said he does not expect to see a spike in gas prices nationally at this point, and there’s still room for prices to fall — just not as much following the Hamas attack on Israel.

    “If we get to November and Iran gets involved in the situation, then we certainly could see gas prices impacted in some way as the current drops will likely be fully passed on by then, giving stations no ‘room’ to absorb higher prices reflected by a potential rise in oil,” said De Haan.

    Still, falling demand, as well as “seasonality in general,” are what are pushing prices down, “enhanced by refinery improvements in areas” that saw price surges, he said.

    Prices may even fall further after refinery maintenance season wraps up in mid-November, and refiners have to find places to put even more gasoline output, said De Haan.

    He’s comfortable with the gasoline price forecasts GasBuddy issued in December of last year, which predicted a monthly national average for the fuel of $3.53 for October — matching the current price. The forecast also called for an average of $3.36 a gallon for November and $3.17 for December.

    GasBuddy doesn’t have a forecast for 2024 yet, but prices may look similar to this year, as long as the situation in the Middle East doesn’t further crumble,” said De Haan.

    View on diesel

    Diesel, however, is another story.

    Price for that fuel have dropped by 85.5 cents a gallon from a year ago to Friday’s $4.465 level, GasBuddy data show.

    U.S. retail diesel prices are sharply lower than a year ago.


    GasBuddy

    While down from a year ago, diesel prices are currently at a “very high level historically” because global supply is low, said DTN’s Milne.

    At this time in 2022 diesel fuel inventory was even tighter than it is now, and Europe was heading into winter without Russian natural gas after it was cutoff following the invasion of Ukraine, he said.

    That led to a spike in natural-gas prices and prices for gasoil, a European heating oil, also surged, lifting heating oil and diesel prices globally, explained Milne.

    Like gasoline, diesel prices could move “sharply higher if the war in Israel expands, and oil flow is put at greater risk,” he said.

    De Haan, meanwhile, said diesel prices could climb closer to $5 a gallon if there’s a “squeeze,” with relief then [coming] in the spring/summer” seasons.

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  • Police shoot dead suspected extremist accused of killing 2 Swedish soccer fans on a Brussels street

    Police shoot dead suspected extremist accused of killing 2 Swedish soccer fans on a Brussels street

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    BRUSSELS (AP) — Police in Belgium on Tuesday shot dead a suspected Tunisian extremist accused of killing two Swedish soccer fans in a brazen shooting on a Brussels street before disappearing into the night.

    Hours after a manhunt began in the Belgian capital, Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden told broadcaster VRT: “We have the good news that we found the individual.” She said that the weapon believed to have been used in the shooting was recovered.

    The federal prosecutor’s office was more cautious, saying in a text message to The Associated Press: “There are strong presumptions but no certainties” that the man was the shooter. He was shot by police in the Schaerbeek neighborhood where the rampage had taken place.

    Amateur videos posted on social media of Monday’s attack showed a man wearing an orange fluorescent vest pull up on a scooter, take out a large weapon and open fire on passersby before chasing them into a building to gun them down.

    “Last night, three people left for what was supposed to be a wonderful soccer party. Two of them lost their lives in a brutal terrorist attack,” Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said at a news conference just before dawn. “Their lives were cut short in full flight, cut down by extreme brutality.”

    De Croo said his thoughts were with the victims’ families and that he had sent his condolences to the Swedish prime minister. Security has been beefed up in the capital, particularly around places linked to the Swedish community in the city.

    “The attack that was launched yesterday was committed with total cowardice,” De Croo said.

    Not far from the scene of the shooting, the Belgium-Sweden soccer match in the Belgian national stadium was suspended at halftime and the 35,000 fans held inside as a precaution while the attacker was at large.

    Prosecutor Eric Van Duyse said “security measures were urgently taken to protect the Swedish supporters” in the stadium. More than two hours after the game was suspended, a message flashed on the big stadium screen saying, “Fans, you can leave the stadium calmly.” Stand after stand emptied onto streets filled with police as the search for the attacker continued.

    “Frustrated, confused, scared. I think everyone was quite scared,” said Caroline Lochs, a fan from Antwerp.

    De Croo said the assailant was a Tunisian man living illegally in Belgium who used a military weapon to kill the two Swedes and shoot a third, who is being treated for ”severe injuries.”

    Federal Prosecutor Frederic Van Leeuw described how the suspect, a 45-year-old man who wasn’t identified, had posted a video online claiming to have killed three Swedish people.

    The suspect is alleged to have said in the video that, for him, the Quran is “a red line for which he is ready to sacrifice himself.”

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  • Biden will travel to Israel Wednesday amid rising concern conflict will spread

    Biden will travel to Israel Wednesday amid rising concern conflict will spread

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    TEL AVIV, Israel — President Joe Biden will travel to Israel and on to Jordan Wednesday to meet with both Israeli and Arab leadership, as concerns increase that the raging Israel-Hamas war could expand into a larger regional conflict.

    U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Biden’s travel to Israel as the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip grows more dire and as Israel prepares for a possible ground attack on the 141-square-mile territory to root out Hamas militants responsible for what U.S. and Israeli officials say was the most lethal assault against Jews since the Holocaust.

    Biden is looking to send the strongest message yet that the U.S. is behind Israel. His Democratic administration has pledged military support, sending U.S. carriers and aid to the region. Officials have said they would ask Congress for upward of $2 billion in additional aid for both Israel and Ukraine, which is fighting Russia’s invasion.

    It’s a chance for Biden to burnish his national security credentials to U.S. voters with the 2024 election just over a year away. It’s also an opportunity to demonstrate that he’s making good on his campaign promise of exercising American leadership after four years of former President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy.

    But Biden’s presence could be seen as a provocative move by Hamas’ chief sponsor, Iran, or potentially viewed as tone-deaf by Arab nations as civilian casualties mount in Gaza. Blinken has already been traveling around the Mideast this past week trying to prevent the war with Hamas from igniting a broader regional conflict.

    Blinken made the announcement early Tuesday after more than seven hours of talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials.

    “He is coming here at a critical moment for Israel, for the region and for the world,” Blinken said.

    Shortly after in Washington, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby announced that Biden would also go to Jordan to meet with King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

    “We’ve been crystal clear about the need for humanitarian aid to be able to continue to flow into Gaza,” Kirby said. “That has been a consistent call by President Biden and certainly by this entire administration.”

    Truckloads of aid idled Monday at Egypt’s border with Gaza, barred from entry, as residents and humanitarian groups pleaded for water, food and fuel for dying generators, saying the tiny Palestinian territory sealed off by Israel after last week’s rampage by Hamas was near total collapse.

    Biden had been scheduled to travel to Pueblo, Colorado, on Monday but decided to postpone the visit so he could consult with his aides and speak with fellow leaders about the unfolding situation in the Middle East.

    The announcements came after Biden consulted with a trio of world leaders and his own national security team on Monday amid growing global concern about the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the Gaza Strip and fears that the Israel-Hamas war could metastasize into a broader regional conflict.

    Biden spoke by phone with Egypt’s el-Sissi, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about the fallout from Hamas militants’ surprise attacks on Israel that left 1,400 dead and retaliatory strikes that have killed at least 2,778 Palestinians.

    European Union leaders will hold an emergency summit on Tuesday as concern mounts that the war between Israel and Hamas could fuel tensions in Europe and bring more refugees in search of sanctuary.

    Biden’s call with the Egyptian leader came one day after el-Sissi met with Blinken in Cairo. Egypt’s state-run media said el-Sissi told Blinken that Israel’s Gaza operation has exceeded “the right of self-defense” and turned into “a collective punishment.”

    Kirby declined to comment on el-Sissi’s concerns about how Israel is conducting the war.

    “The humanitarian situation was high on the list of the discussion with President el-Sissi,” Kirby said.

    Iran’s foreign minister warned Monday that “preemptive action is possible” if Israel moves closer to its looming ground offensive in the Gaza Strip.

    Iran is a chief financial sponsor of Hamas militants in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The comments by Hossein Amirabdollahian follow a pattern of escalating rhetoric from Iran.

    “Leaders of the resistance will not allow the Zionist regime to do whatever it wants in Gaza and then go after other resistance groups after it’s done with Gaza,” he told state television. “Therefore any preemptive action is possible in the coming hours.”

    Kirby said the U.S. has not seen any signs that Iran might try to get directly involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict.

    White House officials have said that U.S. intelligence shows that Iran has been broadly aware that Hamas had been preparing for a possible strike against Israel. But the U.S. says it has yet to uncover evidence of direct Iranian involvement in the Oct. 7 attack.

    Israel is also preparing for the potential of a new front opening on its northern border with Lebanon, where it has exchanged fire repeatedly with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group. The military ordered residents of 28 Israeli communities near the border to evacuate.

    Air raid sirens interrupted Blinken’s meetings with Israeli officials on three different occasions Monday, including twice as he huddled with Netanyahu and his war cabinet.

    In Washington, Biden was briefed in the Oval Office by their national security team on the situation on the ground in Israel and Gaza. White House chief of staff Jeff Zients joined the briefing led by national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns, according to the White House.

    Blinken was in Israel on Monday for his second visit in less than a week for talks with Israeli leaders. He has been crisscrossing the Middle East with stops in Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

    Blinken, in talks Monday with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, carried back some of the feedback he received from Arab leaders. He also “underlined his firm support for Israel’s right to defend itself from Hamas’ terrorism and reaffirmed U.S. determination to provide the Israeli government with what it needs to protect its citizens,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.

    White House officials said Biden’s talks with Arab leaders in Amman will largely focus on humanitarian concerns for Gaza’s 2.3 million people. He’ll also make clear that Hamas does not stand for the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and self-determination.

    Still, White House officials bristled about whether Biden would ask Netanyahu and Israel officials to show restraint or set any conditions on any new U.S. military aid that could be in the pipeline.

    “We are not putting conditions on the military assistance that we are providing to Israel,” Kirby said. “They have a right to defend themselves. They have a right to go after this terrorist threat.”

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