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Tag: price increases

  • Amazon CEO warns prices have gone up from tariffs

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    Some of the things people buy the most are at their most expensive point of the year as the calendar changes over to 2026. Our get the facts data team dug into what actually caused the prices of some items to go up or go down. Let’s start with beef. Right now, the average price for ground beef is 823 per pound and 967 for steaks, the highest prices for both all year. Several factors like President Trump’s tariffs. Cattle inventories and an aging farming population contributed to the increase, but so did something called the New World screwworm, *** parasitic fly that produced *** deadly disease in some places like Mexico. Another grocery staple that is more expensive now, coffee. Our get the Facts data team found the price rose each month throughout the year, maxing out at 926 cents *** pound. Two of the world’s biggest coffee producers, Brazil and Vietnam, Were impacted by drought and excessive rains earlier this year, which reduced coffee production, and Brazil saw an additional 40% tariff over the summer as well. One of the biggest talking points, especially from President Trump about the state of the economy was egg prices. They are one of the few items tracked that actually are cheapest now. Egg prices saw their biggest price hike in nearly 10 years in January, then rose to an all-time high of 623. Per dozen in March. This was in large part to ongoing bird flu outbreaks. Egg prices would start falling in the summer and are now 286 *** dozen. Some other groceries that saw increases this year, cookies, potato chips, bacon, cheddar cheese, and orange juice. But it wasn’t all increases at the supermarket. Some items are cheaper now compared to January, like pasta, white bread, tomatoes, and strawberries. In Washington, I’m Amy Lou.

    If your next Amazon order seems more expensive, President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs may be partially to blame, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said Tuesday.Like many retailers, Amazon and its vast network of third-party sellers loaded up on inventory ahead of Trump’s tariff rollout last spring. But that supply ran out by the fall, Jassy said in a CNBC interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.“So you start to see some of the tariffs creep into some of the prices, some of the items,” he said. “Some sellers are deciding that they’re passing on those higher costs to consumers in the form of higher prices, some are deciding that they’ll absorb it to drive demand and some are doing something in between.”The comments are a stark shift from last June, when Jassy said in a CNBC interview that the company had not seen “prices appreciably go up.” That was after Amazon drew the direct ire of Trump and members of his administration following reports that the e-commerce giant planned to display how tariffs were impacting prices.After Trump spoke with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos at the time, a company spokesperson told CNN the move “was never a consideration for the main Amazon.” It was only being considered for certain products on its spinoff site, Haul, which sells items below $30, the company said.On Tuesday, though, Jassy said: “We’re going to do everything we can to work with our selling partners to make prices as low as possible for consumers, but you don’t have endless options.”In a statement, though, the company told CNN that overall price levels have not changed more than expected. “While we are seeing prices for some sellers and some brands go up, overall the prices of products on Amazon have not changed outside of normal fluctuations,“ an Amazon spokesperson said.And the White House said it maintains that foreign exports are footing that tariff bill.“The average tariff imposed by America has increased by almost tenfold under President Trump, and inflation has continued to cool from Biden-era highs,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.“The Administration has consistently maintained that foreign exporters who depend on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market, will ultimately pay the cost of tariffs, and that’s what’s playing out,” he added.Amazon isn’t the only retailer warning of higher prices because of tariffs. Walmart, Target and Home Depot and many other companies have publicly said tariffs are making products more expensive. And while overall consumer inflation was modest last year, many businesses surveyed by the Federal Reserve in its latest Beige Book, a collection of anecdotes, warned they’re planning bigger price hikes this year.

    If your next Amazon order seems more expensive, President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs may be partially to blame, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said Tuesday.

    Like many retailers, Amazon and its vast network of third-party sellers loaded up on inventory ahead of Trump’s tariff rollout last spring. But that supply ran out by the fall, Jassy said in a CNBC interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

    “So you start to see some of the tariffs creep into some of the prices, some of the items,” he said. “Some sellers are deciding that they’re passing on those higher costs to consumers in the form of higher prices, some are deciding that they’ll absorb it to drive demand and some are doing something in between.”

    The comments are a stark shift from last June, when Jassy said in a CNBC interview that the company had not seen “prices appreciably go up.” That was after Amazon drew the direct ire of Trump and members of his administration following reports that the e-commerce giant planned to display how tariffs were impacting prices.

    After Trump spoke with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos at the time, a company spokesperson told CNN the move “was never a consideration for the main Amazon.” It was only being considered for certain products on its spinoff site, Haul, which sells items below $30, the company said.

    On Tuesday, though, Jassy said: “We’re going to do everything we can to work with our selling partners to make prices as low as possible for consumers, but you don’t have endless options.”

    In a statement, though, the company told CNN that overall price levels have not changed more than expected. “While we are seeing prices for some sellers and some brands go up, overall the prices of products on Amazon have not changed outside of normal fluctuations,“ an Amazon spokesperson said.

    And the White House said it maintains that foreign exports are footing that tariff bill.

    “The average tariff imposed by America has increased by almost tenfold under President Trump, and inflation has continued to cool from Biden-era highs,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.

    “The Administration has consistently maintained that foreign exporters who depend on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market, will ultimately pay the cost of tariffs, and that’s what’s playing out,” he added.

    Amazon isn’t the only retailer warning of higher prices because of tariffs. Walmart, Target and Home Depot and many other companies have publicly said tariffs are making products more expensive. And while overall consumer inflation was modest last year, many businesses surveyed by the Federal Reserve in its latest Beige Book, a collection of anecdotes, warned they’re planning bigger price hikes this year.

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  • Microsoft increases the price of Xbox dev kits by $500

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    Players aren’t the only ones facing higher price tags from Xbox. According to a report by The Verge, Microsoft has upped the cost of the Xbox Development Kit from $1,500 to $2,000. That’s a 33 percent jump in cost for these custom hardware kits, which are essential for devs to make and test games for release on the console.

    “The adjustment reflects macroeconomic developments,” Microsoft said in an email sent to Xbox devs and seen by The Verge. “We remain committed to providing high-quality tools and support for your development efforts.” Although the macroeconomics in question are almost certainly the tariffs enacted by the US, it appears this is a blanket increase that will impact developers in other countries as well. The new kit costs appear to be effective immediately.

    The change caps off a series of price increases for the Xbox ecosystem. Game Pass prices recently rose, with the Ultimate tier now costing $30 a month compared to the previous $20. And Microsoft has upped the cost of the Xbox twice this year, once in May and again in September. Between these additional expenses and the little matter of cutting thousands of gaming jobs earlier this year, a lot of us are giving up on Xbox before Microsoft can disappoint us yet again.

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  • Climate change has ravaged India’s rice stock. Now its export ban could deepen a global food crisis | CNN Business

    Climate change has ravaged India’s rice stock. Now its export ban could deepen a global food crisis | CNN Business

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    Harayana, India
    CNN
     — 

    Satish Kumar sits in front of his submerged rice paddy in India’s Haryana state, looking despairingly at his ruined crops.

    “I’ve suffered a tremendous loss,” said the third generation farmer, who relies solely on growing the grain to feed his young family. “I will not be able to grow anything until November.”

    The newly planted saplings have been underwater since July after torrential rain battered northern India, with landslides and flash floods sweeping through the region.

    Kumar said he has not seen floods of this scale in years and has been forced to take loans to replant his fields all over again. But that isn’t the only problem he’s facing.

    Last month, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice, announced a ban on exporting non-basmati white rice in a bid to calm rising prices at home and ensure food security. India then followed with more restrictions on its rice exports, including a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice.

    The move has triggered fears of global food inflation, hurt the livelihoods of some farmers and prompted several rice-dependent countries to seek urgent exemptions from the ban.

    More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports.

    Economists say the ban is just the latest move to disrupt global food supplies, which has suffered from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as weather events such as El Niño.

    They warn the Indian government’s decision could have significant market reverberations with the poor in Global South nations in particular bearing the brunt.

    And farmers like Kumar say market price rises caused by poor harvests doesn’t result in a windfall for them either.

    “The ban is going to have an adverse effect on all of us. We won’t get a higher rate if rice isn’t exported,” Kumar said. “The floods were a death blow to us farmers. This ban will finish us.”

    Satish Kumar with whatever is left of his rice crops.

    The abrupt announcement of the export ban triggered panic buying in the United States, following which the price of rice soared to a near 12-year high, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

    It does not apply to basmati rice, which is India’s best-known and highest quality variety. Non-basmati white rice however, accounts for about 25% of exports.

    India wasn’t the first country to ban food exports to ensure enough supply for domestic consumption. But its move, coming just one week after Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal — a crucial pact that allowed the export of grain from Ukraine — contributed to global concerns about the availability of grain staples and whether millions would go hungry.

    “The main thing here is that it is not just one thing,” Arif Husain, chief economist at the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) told CNN. “[Rice, wheat and corn crops] make up bulk of the food which poor people around the world consume.”

    Workers in India sift through rice grains in capital New Delhi.

    Nepal has seen rice prices surge since India announced the ban, according to local media reports, and rice prices in Vietnam are the highest they have been in more than a decade, according to customs data.

    Thailand, the world’s second largest rice exporter after India, has also seen domestic rice prices jump significantly in recent weeks, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

    Countries including Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines, have appealed to New Delhi to resume rice exports to their nations, according to local Indian media reports. CNN has reached out to India’s Ministry of Agriculture but has not received a response.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has encouraged India to remove the restrictions, with the organization’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, telling reporters last month that it was “likely to exacerbate” the uncertainty of food inflation.

    “We would encourage the removal of these types of export restrictions because they can be harmful globally,” he said.

    Now, there are fears that the ban has the world market bracing for similar actions by rival suppliers, economists warn.

    “The export ban is happening at a time when countries are struggling with high debt, food inflation, and declining depreciating currencies,” Husain from the WFP said. “It’s troubling for everyone.”

    Indian farmers account for nearly half of the country’s workforce, according to government data, with rice paddy mainly cultivated in central, southern, and some northern states.

    Summer crop planting typically starts in June, when monsoon rains are expected to begin, as irrigation is crucial to grow a healthy yield. The summer season accounts for more than 80% of India’s total rice output, according to Reuters.

    This year, however, the late monsoon arrival led to a large water deficit up until mid-June. And when the rains finally arrived, it drenched swathes of the country, unleashing floods that caused significant damage to crops.

    The heavy floods have affected the country's farmers.

    Surjit Singh, 53, a third generation farmer from Harayana said they “lost everything” after the rains.

    “My rice crops have been ruined,” he said. “The water submerged about 8-10 inches of my crops. What I planted (in early June) is gone… I will see a loss of about 30%.”

    The World Meteorological Organization last month warned that governments must prepare for more extreme weather events and record temperatures, as it declared the onset of the warming phenomenon El Niño.

    El Niño is a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that brings warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures and has a major influence on weather across the globe, affecting billions of people.

    The impact has been felt by thousands of farmers in India, some of whom say they will now grow crops other than rice. And it doesn’t just stop there.

    India's rice stock is piling up as a result of the ban.

    At one of New Delhi’s largest rice trading hubs, there are fears among traders that the export ban will cause catastrophic consequences.

    “The export ban has left traders with huge amounts of stock,” said rice trader Roopkaran Singh. “We now have to find new buyers in the domestic market.”

    But experts warn the effects will be felt far beyond India’s borders.

    “Poor countries, food importing countries, countries in West Africa, they are at the highest risk,” said Husain from the WFP. “The ban is coming on the back of war and a global pandemic… We need to be extra careful when it comes to our staples, so that we don’t end up unnecessarily rising prices. Because those increases are not without consequences.”

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  • US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in July | CNN Business

    US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in July | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    US wholesale inflation rose more than expected in July, reversing a yearlong cooling trend, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

    The Producer Price Index, which tracks the average change in prices that businesses pay to suppliers, rose 0.8% annually. That’s above June’s upwardly revised increase of 0.2% and higher than expectations for a 0.7% gain, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv.

    Producer price hikes increased 0.3% from June to July, the highest monthly increase since January.

    PPI is a closely watched inflation gauge since it captures average price shifts before they reach consumers, and is a proxy for potential price changes in stores.

    Services and demand for services were the primary culprits behind the lift higher for producer prices, said Kurt Rankin, senior economist for PNC Financial Services. Services prices rose 0.5% from June, the highest monthly increase since March 2022 for the category, BLS data shows.

    “The inflation story now, be it for producers or consumers, is demand,” he told CNN. “Mainly that’s consumers still spending money on services.”

    The food index, which had declined for three straight months, rose 0.5% in July, suggesting a 6.3% annualized pace of inflation, he said.

    “Consumers continue to go out and spend money,” Rankin said. “And as long as consumers are spending money, that’s going to create demand from producers, so that’s going to drive up their costs for their raw materials, for their transportation needs, etc.”

    “And they’re going to pass those prices on to consumers,” he added.

    That’s an unpleasant cycle.

    “The numbers over the past six months have been much more encouraging, but it’s a reminder that the Federal Reserve has an eye toward the possibility of inflation flaring up again,” he said.

    The report comes just one day after the Consumer Price Index showed that prices rose 3.2% annually in July. That increase, which was below the 3.3% economists were anticipating, was largely driven by year-over-year comparisons to a softer inflation number the year before.

    Similar base effects played their role in the headline PPI increase as well, noted Rankin.

    The tick upward to 0.8% doesn’t tell the whole story, because the index decreased in five of the previous seven months. Annualizing the 0.3% monthly gain, however, would put the PPI rate at about 3.6% and core at 3.8%, he said.

    “So the July number does suggest that there’s still some producer cost pressures,” he said.

    When stripping out the more volatile categories of food and energy, core PPI rose 2.4% annually in July. That’s in line with what was seen in June but a tick above economists’ expectations for a slight cooling.

    On a month-to-month basis, core PPI increased 0.3%, also the highest monthly gain since January.

    “The underlying trends show that PPI inflation is reverting to its pre-pandemic run rate, though progress is likely to be slower in [the second half of 2023] than [the first half],” Oxford Economics economists Matthew Martin and Oren Klachkin wrote Friday in a note. “While these data will comfort Fed officials, policymakers will likely maintain a hawkish tone and keep a close eye on whether last month’s jump in services prices persists in the months ahead.”

    US stock futures tumbled after the report was released, as the hotter-than-expected data fueled concerns that the Fed could continue to hike rates in order to rein in inflation. The Dow has since pared its losses and is back in the green.

    One month does not make a trend, and this result alone should not trigger a September increase from the Fed, but it certainly could heighten concerns, Rankin said.

    “One spark could reignite this,” he said. “We’re seeing energy prices, oil prices, rising over the past few weeks. Any flareup in oil prices goes straight through to not only manufacturing costs, but transportation of goods to market, even transportation of food to restaurants. So even services, leisure and hospitality get hit when energy prices spike, so that possibility is always there.”

    The PPI’s energy index, which increased 0.7% in June, showed that prices were flat for July.

    “So the fact that energy prices were not a contributor tho this month’s reading makes this number jumping a bit a stark reminder that the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation and their rhetoric regarding that fight is going to remain hawkish in the near term.”

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  • Why do businesses keep raising their prices? | CNN Business

    Why do businesses keep raising their prices? | CNN Business

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    Los Angeles
    CNN
     — 

    After two years of surging prices, economists still can’t agree on what has caused the world’s worst inflation crisis in decades.

    While the usual culprits cited by economists include pandemic-era supply chain bottlenecks, the war in Ukraine and various US economic policies, others say it’s due to “greedflation,” the idea that companies use higher inflation rates as an excuse to jack up prices and grow their margins.

    However, according to preliminary findings in a New York Federal Reserve survey, there might be something else at play.

    The survey of 700 businesses across New York, Atlanta and Cleveland found that strength of customer demand outranked all other factors that companies weigh when setting prices, including steady profit margins and overall inflation.

    That means a business can essentially set prices as high as it wants, as long as they aren’t so high that they drive away the customer base. In other words, it’s Econ 101: Good, old-fashioned supply and demand.

    More than 82% of businesses surveyed said demand factored into their pricing decisions, while only 52% of businesses said they take the overall rate of inflation into account when setting prices.

    Customers have become trained to tolerate price hikes, said John Zheng, a professor of marketing at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

    “As a consumer during inflation, you know the costs for companies are increasing, so, therefore, you become more receptive to a higher price,” he said.

    Approval of price increases could fuel even higher pricing in the future — a cycle that can be hard to break, said Zheng.

    Mr. Mac’s mac and cheese restaurant in Manchester, New Hampshire tried boosting prices a little at a time to keep up with inflation in 2021, but it wasn’t enough to cover the cost increases to the business, vice president of operations Mark Murphy told CNN. Fearing customer backlash, the restaurant accepted smaller margins instead of pricing out their diners.

    When the business finally hiked prices, Murphy said the decision was “painful.”

    “We were looking at our sales and our orders daily, and we were checking every review to see what people were saying,” Murphy said. “It was very scary.”

    Despite those fears, Mr. Mac’s elevated prices did not cut into business.

    “What we ended up finding was customers may not have been happy about it, but they were not surprised. I think they kind of understood that prices are increasing. They see it everywhere they go,” he said.

    Murphy said the restaurant has since raised prices more than once to keep up with inflation.

    Multinational companies Colgate, Procter & Gamble and PepsiCo have raised prices by double-digit percentages over the past year, according to their first-quarter earnings reports, outpacing the US inflation rate.

    However, as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates and the economy slows down, customers may soon be less keen to pay through the nose for goods and services, Zheng said.

    Businesses may already be in tune with the change: Those surveyed by the New York Fed said they expect lower cost and price pressures in the coming year.

    Emily Netti, a wedding photographer in Syracuse, New York, said she has raised prices by a few hundred dollars multiple times over the past two years to pay competitive rates to the additional photographers and editors she hires. However, she said she is mindful that her local customer base may soon want to cut back on expenses.

    “I’ve started to slow down in my own market within Syracuse,” she said.

    “I do see myself raising by $100 rather than $300 for now, so I can match the market.”

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  • Britain is getting so desperate to tame inflation it’s talking about food price caps | CNN Business

    Britain is getting so desperate to tame inflation it’s talking about food price caps | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Brits woke up to yet more grim news on inflation Tuesday, with new data showing prices in UK stores are rising at a record pace. It’s the latest sign of a seemingly intractable cost-of-living crisis that has Prime Minster Rishi Sunak considering drastic measures, including price controls, to keep inflation in check.

    The cost of store items, known as shop price inflation, rose 9% through the year to May, a fresh high for an index that dates back to 2005, according to the British Retail Consortium. Food inflation dipped slightly to 15.4% in May, but that’s still the second-highest rate on record.

    Lower energy and commodity costs helped reduce prices of some staples, including butter, milk, fruit and fish. But chocolate and coffee prices are rising as global commodity prices soar, British Retail Consortium CEO Helen Dickinson said.

    The slight drop in food prices will give cold comfort to consumers, and piles the pressure on Sunak, who has promised to halve inflation this year as one of his five pledges to voters.

    The British public “are still wincing when their total comes up at the checkout… a weekly shop that cost £100 last year is now clocking in at £115,” Laura Suter, head of personal finance at stockbroker AJ Bell wrote in a note.

    Poor households are being hit the hardest because they spend more of their disposable income on food. More people are using food banks in the United Kingdom than ever before, eclipsing even the peak of the pandemic.

    The Trussell Trust, the UK’s biggest food bank network, handed out close to 3 million emergency food parcels over the 12 months to March 2023 — a 37% increase on the previous year.

    Even the Bank of England, tasked with keeping inflation at 2%, has been caught off guard by stubbornly high food prices, which seem to have barely responded to 12 successive interest rate hikes.

    Food prices have contributed to keeping inflation “higher than we expected it to be,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told a Treasury committee hearing last week. “We have a lot to learn about operating monetary policy in a world of big shocks,” he admitted.

    The United Kingdom’s inflation problem is now so dire that Sunak is considering asking retailers to cap the price of essential food items, in a throwback to the 1970s. Back then, governments in the United States and United Kingdom imposed wage and price controls to tame inflation, although the policies weren’t very effective at bringing inflation down and were later dropped.

    Economists say that capping prices encourages companies to produce less of a product, while making it more attractive to consumers. Supply goes down, and demand goes up, with shortages being the inevitable result.

    Price controls distort markets and should only be used “in extreme circumstances,” Neal Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note Tuesday. “The current food price shock does not warrant such an intervention,” he added.

    The Sunday Telegraph was first to report the government’s proposal, which was quickly rejected by retailers.

    Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium said controls would not make a “jot of difference” to high food prices, which are the result of soaring energy, transport and labor costs.

    “As commodity prices drop, many of the costs keeping inflation high are now arising from the muddle of new regulation coming from government,” Opie added in a statement. These include tighter rules on recycling and full border controls on food imports from the European Union, due to be implemented by the end of this year.

    According to a government spokesperson, any price caps would not be mandatory. “Any scheme to help bring down food prices for consumers would be voluntary and at retailers’ discretion,” the spokesperson said in a statement shared with CNN.

    Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt “have been meeting with the food sector to see what more can be done,” the spokesperson added.

    For Sunak, the pressure is on — particularly ahead of a general election widely expected to be held next year. Inflation was hovering above 10% when he made the promise to halve it in January. It dropped back to 8.7% in April, still well above his target. The Bank of England expects it to fall to “around 5%” by the end of this year, leaving little margin for error.

    According to Opie of the British Retail Consortium, the government should focus on “cutting red tape” rather than “recreating 1970s-style price controls.”

    At the top of the list of burdensome regulations are those introduced as a result of the country’s exit from the European Union, which is its main source of food imports.

    Brexit is responsible for about a third of UK food price inflation since 2019, according to researchers at the London School of Economics.

    New regulatory checks and other border controls added nearly £7 billion ($8.7 billion) to Britain’s domestic grocery bill between December 2019 and March 2023, or £250 ($310) per household, economists at the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance wrote in a recent paper.

    Food prices rose by almost 25 percentage points over this period. “Our analysis suggests that in the absence of Brexit this figure would be 8 percentage points (30%) lower,” the researchers wrote.

    Imports of meat and cheese from the European Union were now subject to high “non-tariff barriers.”

    — Mark Thompson contributed reporting.

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  • Another key inflation gauge cooled further in April | CNN Business

    Another key inflation gauge cooled further in April | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Wholesale annual inflation slowed in April, adding to signs that price pressures are easing.

    The Producer Price Index, a key measure of price changes at the wholesale level, slowed to 2.3% for the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.

    That was below the annual increase of 2.7% in March and economists’ expectations of a 2.4% increase. It’s also the slowest annual increase since 2021.

    On a monthly basis, prices ticked up 0.2%. During the previous month, they fell by 0.4%.

    This story is developing and will be updated.

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  • Oil prices surge after OPEC+ producers announce surprise cuts | CNN Business

    Oil prices surge after OPEC+ producers announce surprise cuts | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong/Atlanta
    CNN
     — 

    Oil prices spiked during Asian trade Monday after OPEC+ producers said they would cut production in a surprise move.

    Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped 4.8% to $83.73 a barrel, while WTI, the US benchmark, rose 4.9% to $79.36.

    Rising oil prices could mean inflation remains higher for longer, adding pressure to a hot-button issue for consumers around the world.

    On Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced that it would start “a voluntary reduction” in its production of crude oil, alongside other members or allies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

    The cuts will start in May and last through the end of the year, an official with the Saudi Ministry of Energy was quoted as saying by Saudi state-run news agency SPA.

    The reductions are on top of those announced by OPEC+ in October, according to SPA.

    That month, oil producers had agreed to slash output by 2 million barrels a day, the largest cut since the start of the pandemic and equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand.

    Saudi Arabia now says it will cut oil production by another half a million barrels a day.

    Meanwhile, Iraq will slash production by 200,000 barrels per day, and the United Arab Emirates will decrease output by 144,000 barrels per day.

    Kuwait, Algeria and Oman will also lower production by 128,000, 48,000 and 40,000 barrels per day, respectively.

    In a Sunday note, Goldman Sachs analysts said the move was unexpected but “consistent with the new OPEC+ doctrine to act pre-emptively because they can without significant losses in market share.”

    The collective output cut by the nine members of OPEC+ totals 1.66 million barrels per day, said the analysts, who hiked their price forecast for Brent this year to $95 per barrel.

    Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry described its latest reduction as a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil markets, according to SPA.

    The White House pushed back on that notion — as well as the latest cuts by OPEC+.

    “We don’t think cuts are advisable at this moment given market uncertainty — and we’ve made that clear,” a spokesperson for the National Security Council said. “We’re focused on prices for American consumers, not barrels.”

    In October, OPEC+’s decision to cut production had already rankled the White House.

    US President Joe Biden pledged at the time that Saudi Arabia would suffer “consequences.” But so far, his administration appears to have back off on its vows to punish the Middle East kingdom.

    Russia, a member of OPEC+, also said Sunday that it would extend a voluntary reduction of 500,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. The move was announced by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, as cited by state-run news agency TASS.

    That decision was less surprising. Goldman analysts said they had forecast the cut would last into the second half of the year.

    — CNN’s Hanna Ziady and Arlette Saenz contributed to this report.

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  • This is one of the worst times to buy a car in decades. 3 charts explain why | CNN Business

    This is one of the worst times to buy a car in decades. 3 charts explain why | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    It has almost never been as hard to buy a new or used car in the United States as it is today, despite improving supply issues and inflation beginning to steady.

    Vehicle transaction prices — the price you actually end up paying after any dealer discounts or markups — have been climbing higher and faster since 2020 than any other point in more than 35 years, according to recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The consumer price indexes for both new and used cars — the average changes in vehicle transaction price over time — are much higher than they were four years ago in 2019.

    There is a silver lining. BLS data shows inflation for used cars has been cooling down just as dramatically since December 2022 as it increased in the months before that. But used cars have a long way to go before approaching 2019 sales prices and new car prices have yet to slow down.

    The average transaction price of a new car has jumped nearly $12,000 in the past five years, according to data from auto website Edmunds.com. For used cars, the average transaction price is still nearly $9,000 higher than it was in February 2018.

    “[Prices are] coming down a bit, but not coming down nearly as fast as one would hope,” said Ivan Drury, the director of insights at Edmunds.com. “If you look back, or if you’ve ever done a transaction before in your life, all of these numbers are bad.”

    Car buyers haven’t seen price hikes like these since the 1970s and 80s. What makes the 2020s unique is how much car prices rose in a short period of time. Over the used car market’s worst 12 months of the pandemic, the index rose 45%. There’s never been a 12-month period since the BLS began keeping records in 1947 when used car prices have inflated more.

    Recent trends in prices have been similar across regions of the United States, though in some areas, the starting prices may be higher than others. Preferences for more expensive vehicles in some areas drive these regional differences, Drury said.

    There’s a large market for pickup trucks and SUVs in the south, he said, where BLS data shows new car transaction prices have risen the most since 1987.

    The average price of a large pickup truck nationwide was $62,430 in 2022, according to Edmunds.com. The average midsize car price was only $31,381.

    The road to more reasonable prices for new and used cars remains littered with potholes.

    Consumer tastes have shifted towards larger and more expensive pickup trucks and SUVs. New car buyers are loading up on options, compared to more stripped-down models available a few years ago. Both of these trends drive up prices and also create incentive for automakers to produce pricier rides. The used market is still affected by the decline in leasing trade-ins and rental car companies competing with consumers for the same limited supply of three to five-year-old vehicles.

    “We’ve got a few things that are really hindering the US market,” Drury said. “I don’t see those going away anytime soon.”

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  • Key inflation gauge in Europe hits record high even as overall price rises slow sharply | CNN Business

    Key inflation gauge in Europe hits record high even as overall price rises slow sharply | CNN Business

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    London
    CNN
     — 

    Inflation in Europe has fallen to its slowest pace in more than a year, though stark signs of persistent underlying pressure on prices will complicate policymakers’ next move on borrowing costs.

    Prices in the 20 countries that use the euro rose 6.9% this month compared with a year ago, the European Union’s statistics agency said Friday.

    That’s a sharp decline from 8.5% in February and the lowest inflation rate since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sending energy prices soaring. The pullback in inflation this month was driven by a 0.9% year-on-year fall in energy prices.

    But the latest data includes evidence of lingering upward pressure on prices. The price of food, alcohol and tobacco climbed 15.4% year over year, up from 15% in February. And prices for services rose 5%, up from 4.8%.

    More worryingly, core inflation — a measure that strips out volatile food and energy prices — ticked up to 5.7% in March from 5.6% in February, reaching a new record high.

    That is likely to create a headache for policymakers at the European Central Bank, who have been hiking borrowing costs aggressively. They have had to balance the need to tame inflation with limiting stress to the economy. The recent turmoil in the banking sector has also underscored the dangers that rapid interest rate rises pose to some lenders and to the wider financial system.

    Europe’s economic growth is also at risk from emerging efforts by banks to conserve cash following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States and the downfall of Credit Suisse, which could make it more expensive to take out loans.

    Stubbornly high core inflation makes it harder for the ECB to judge whether it has done enough to rein in inflation.

    “Descending headline inflation thanks to cooling energy prices will not be enough for the ECB to stop tightening, as policymakers are looking for clear signs of core inflation easing,” Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani of Oxford Economics said in a note to clients.

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  • Price hikes are double whammy for pet owners who are crushed by inflation | CNN Business

    Price hikes are double whammy for pet owners who are crushed by inflation | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    As head of PAWS Atlanta, Joe Labriola can get a good sense of the region’s economic well-being from the day-to-day activity of the city’s oldest no-kill animal shelter.

    Through the course of the past year, it’s become increasingly clear to him that people in the area are struggling under the weight of inflation and economic uncertainty.

    Practically the entirety of the daily call volume consists of requests to rehome pets. The shelter’s “surrender queue” is full, awaiting adoptions to free up space in the main shelter. And the shelves at PAWS Atlanta’s Pet Food Pantry quickly go bare.

    But perhaps the most heartbreaking indicator is something this particular shelter never had to track before 2022. Last year, 166 pets were found abandoned at the shelter’s front gate.

    “A number of animals are being abandoned that have serious medical issues,” Labriola told CNN. “The only thing we can guess is that people just can’t afford those expenses, and they’re hoping by dropping off [their pets] at our facility that we’re going to be able to pick up the slack. And we do as best we can, but it’s really putting a strain on our resources.”

    Overall inflation remains high across the United States, but has slowly and methodically stepped down since setting a fresh 40-year record of 9.1% in June 2022, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. However, during the past eight months, inflation in pet-related products and services has only worsened, rising in some cases to record-setting levels.

    In February, when annual CPI declined to 6%, the catch-all “pets, pet products and services” index rose to 10.9%, veterinary services jumped nearly 2 percentage points to 10.3% and pet food increased to 15.2%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

    Those price increases are a double whammy for pet owners whose household finances have been weakened by persistently high inflation and for those who fear for rising instances of “economic euthanasia,” when animals are humanely put to death for financial reasons.

    The recent pet-specific price spikes also are compounding pressures facing organizations tasked with providing a safety net for animals in need.

    Nationwide, shelters are not seeing increases in pets being surrendered, said Kitty Block, chief executive officer and president of the Humane Society of the United States. However, when there are certain communities seeing spikes in abandoned or surrendered pets, that’s a sign of broader societal hardship, she said.

    “When people are having to surrender their animals for economic reasons or because they’re in the middle of a horrible disaster or war zone area, that’s a people problem; this is not some issue that is not relevant to people,” Block said. “This is bigger than dogs or cats in shelters. It’s about the people who love them.”

    At the store level, many pet products saw double-digit average unit price increases during the past year, with several items — including pet food, non-clumping cat litter and bird grooming items — seeing year-over-year price hikes north of 20%, according to Nielsen IQ data for the 52-week period ended January 28, 2023.

    “Throughout 2022, price increases were pretty extensive — all the way up to 20% and almost 30% price hikes versus the year prior — across the pet department,” said Andrea Binder, vice president of NielsenIQ North America. “In early 2023, we have started to see those start to taper off a little bit. Prices are still increasing but at a lower rate than they were in 2022.”

    The price hikes have been attributed to rising input and ingredient costs, she added.

    “The cost of chicken, the cost of beef, the cost of aluminum to make a wet cat food can … a lot of those commodity prices have been rising pretty dramatically throughout 2021 and 2022, which has caused manufacturers to increase their costs, and then therefore a lot of retailers follow suit,” she said.

    Linda Harding's dogs, Lola and Phoebe.

    Pet products, services and food have become “exponentially” more expensive, said Linda Harding, who lives in San Diego with two dogs. She said her pet food costs for Lola, her Australian Shepherd mix, and for Phoebe, her Golden Retriever, have doubled to $250 per month.

    Harding has cut back on her own expenses. She hasn’t turned on the heat much all winter, she’s limited electricity use and she has stopped buying items like clothes and eggs.

    “When you take on a pet, you take on a big responsibility,” she said. “It’s almost like when you buy a car, you’re going to have a lot of responsibility with that car. That car is going to break down, that car’s going to need repairs. It’s an investment.”

    She added: “And they’re our furbabies. We love them to pieces. So it’s not really even a question. I need to find the money to keep them as healthy as possible so we can love them as long as possible.”

    Mary Avila, a disabled veteran who lives on a fixed income, keeps things simple.

    She doesn’t go clothes shopping anymore, she buys cheaper cuts of meat, and she does try to sock away money in case her pets need a small medical procedure.

    “They always give,” said Avila, who lives in Bakersfield, California, with her cat, Jack, and two dogs, Domino and Squirt. “The cat doesn’t give as much, because cats. But the dogs, they always give, they’re always happy, they always want you around. They always are there for you.”

    Patricia Kelvin of Poland, Ohio, said her Social Security benefits and pension can only go so far, so when the cost of utilities, food or trash collection go up, she has to cut back.

    But not for her cat, Jesse.

    Patricia Kelvin's cat, Jesse.

    “If he had some major medical concern, there are a lot of things I would give up so he would get care,” she said. “There’s just no question in my mind. If my diet was going to be more beans than something else, I wouldn’t hesitate. If I had to sell my sterling silver, which I’ve had for 60 years, that would go before my little ‘Whiskers’ would be deprived.”

    The Animal Rescue League of Iowa is the largest nonprofit rescue organization in the Hawkeye State and adopted out 8,400 dogs, cats and small farm animals throughout last year.

    As pet support services manager, Josh Fiala’s role at ARL is to help keep animals out of the shelter by offering programs — such as a pet food pantry, vaccine clinics, veterinary assistance and crisis care — to help keep pets with their people.

    “We definitely, without question, have seen a dramatic increase in pretty much every one of those services,” he said, noting that the pet food pantry in particular has seen spikes in demand.

    Josh Fiala, Animal Rescue League of Iowa's Pet Support Services Manager, helps load pet food into a vehicle during a Pet Food Pantry in January 2022.

    ARL gave out about 40,000 pounds of pet food in both 2020 and 2021. Last year, it distributed 146,000 pounds of food.

    Waggle, a pet-dedicated crowdfunding platform for medical expenses and emergencies, has seen recent spikes in the volume of postings on its website — with some of the biggest increases coming from pet owners in rural communities and areas with high costs of living, said Steven Mornelli, chief executive officer and founder. Additionally, Waggle has also seen a 30% increase in posting for help with medical bills $250 and under, he told CNN.

    “We have taken that as a correlation with the stresses of inflation,” he said.

    In 2022, 4% more animals entered shelters than left, according to Shelter Animals Count, a national database of animal shelter statistics launched by some of the largest animal welfare organizations in the United States.

    That’s the largest gap seen in the past four years and is the result of fewer pets leaving shelters, not increases in surrenders, said Christa Chadwick, vice president of shelter services at the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals.

    Adoption levels have remained essentially flat, but there has been a large decline in animals being transferred to other shelters because of staffing and driver shortages, she added.

    Joey, a shelter dog at Baypath Humane Society in Hopkinton, Massachusetts, on April 9, 2021.

    But she also highlighted the economic pressures affecting current and prospective pet owners.

    “It’s heartbreaking to know that there are situations where pet owners are being put in a position where they are making a decision about their pet, whether it’s to surrender that pet to an animal shelter or they have to make a decision about euthanasia because they can’t afford care, she said.

    “People tend to get angry at the pet owner when they [abandon or surrender their pet] but our experience has shown that when pet owners get to that point, it’s the only option they see available to them,” Chadwick. “And that’s real, and that’s hard for everybody involved, and that’s really hard for the animal who’s at the center of that.”

    Chadwick sees a role for shelters and other organizations to provide a safe and welcoming place for owners who may feel like they have no other option.

    Despite the broader economic challenges occurring within the US, PAWS Atlanta’s Labriola has had its share of feel-good success stories this year.

    PAWS Atlanta's staff members take care of pets during a public vaccine clinic on February 23.

    Donations have remained strong as has the volunteer program, he said. The low-cost public vaccination and spay and neuter clinics are sold out, indicating that people are taking advantage of inexpensive ways to care for their pets, he added.

    And just recently, the shelter’s focus of working with dogs who have been there for more than a year, or “long-term guests,” is starting to pay off, he said.

    “We’ve been able to place three long-termers into forever homes recently, freeing up space to rescue more homeless dogs,” he said.

    • Shelters, veterinarians and local rescue groups can serve as first points of contact.
    • The Humane Society of the United States’ website has a variety of resources for people facing financial challenges and need vet care, food, boarding, supplies and information to help keep pets with their families. The website has a list of national, state and local organizations.
    • Inquire if veterinarians accept Care Credit, ScratchPay or a similar service but be sure to carefully review the terms of repayment and how interest rates would be applied.
    • Ask if your veterinarian has a client-driven donation fund to help other clients in need; consider fundraising platforms such as Waggle and GoFundMe
    • Consider purchasing pet health insurance.

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  • Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch | CNN Business

    Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The possibility of a 2023 market rally ground to a halt last week amid an onslaught of unfortunate inflation and economic data that spooked investors and increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue its economically painful rate hikes campaign for longer than Wall Street hoped.

    All major indexes notched their largest weekly losses of 2023 on Friday. The S&P 500 fell by 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 3%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.3%.

    What’s happening: It appears that after months of steady decline, the pace of inflation is going sideways. January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures price index – the Fed’s favored inflation gauge – came in hotter than expected on Friday.

    Prices rose a whopping 5.4% in January from a year earlier, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. In December, prices rose 5.3% annually.

    In January alone, prices were up 0.6% from the prior month, a higher monthly gain from December’s increase of 0.2%.

    This inflationary crab walk is almost certainly causing Fed officials to rethink their policy.

    A paper presented Friday at the Booth School of Business Monetary Policy Forum in New York argued that disinflation will likely be slower and more painful than markets anticipate.

    “Significant disinflations induced by monetary policy tightening are associated with recessions,” said the paper. “An ‘immaculate disinflation’ would be unprecedented.” (Immaculate, in this instance, refers to the possibility of inflation falling quickly to the Fed’s 2% goal without any serious economic damage).

    Several Fed presidents, governors and top economists were on hand at the Booth School forum to discuss the paper and monetary policy on Friday. The majority of those speaking expressed deep concern about the stubbornness of inflation and general market reaction.

    Inflation won’t quit: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that while price growth has moderated from its recent high, the overall pace of inflation remains too high and could be more persistent than her colleagues currently anticipate.

    “I anticipate further rate increases to reach a sufficiently restrictive level, then holding there for some, perhaps extended, time,” echoed Boston Fed President Susan Collins at the conference.

    Collins referred to inflation as “recalcitrant,” a loaded million-dollar word that means uncooperative, or defiant to authority.

    Fed Governor Philip Jefferson struck a more befuddled stance on Friday, observing that inflation continues to baffle economists. “The inflationary forces impinging on the US economy at present represent a complex mixture of temporary and more long-lasting elements that defy simple, parsimonious explanation,” he said. Parsimonious being another million-dollar word for frugal.

    Economists stressed that more pain lies ahead. “It’s important that markets understand that ‘no landing’ is not an option,” said Peter Hooper, vice chair of research at Deutsche Bank, an author of the report.

    While recent data has signaled that the US economy remains strong, “by the time we get to the middle of this year we expect to see some bad news coming and the sooner the markets get that message the more helpful it will be to the Fed,” he said.

    The final word: Former Bank of England Governor Lord Mervyn King summed up what many were thinking on Friday: Given the complexity of the current monetary situation, he said, “I wouldn’t want to give advice to any central banks about what we should do.”

    Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York have issued a dire warning: If President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan doesn’t come to fruition, the US could face another credit crisis.

    Some background: The Covid-19 crisis triggered a sudden shift in student loan policy and a new openness to forgiveness. In March 2020, Congress passed the CARES Act, which automatically paused required payments on all federally held student loans.

    That forbearance has since been extended eight times and is set to end as late as August, 40 months after it began.

    The Biden Administration had announced an unprecedented debt cancellation proposal which would provide relief to more than 40 million borrowers. An analysis by the New York Fed found that roughly $441 billion of federal student loans are eligible for forgiveness under the proposal, canceling about 30% of all outstanding federal student loan debt.

    That forgiveness proposal is now on hold after an injunction by the 8th US Circuit Court of Appeals. On Tuesday, The Supreme Court of the United States will hear the case with its decision expected by June 2023.

    What’s on the line: If the Biden Administration’s forgiveness plan survives the court challenge, it will mark the largest mass discharge of consumer debt in modern history, according to the New York Fed. About 40% of those with federal student loan debt would have a zero balance; even more would have a much smaller monthly payment.

    But, “if payments resume without debt relief, we expect both student loan default and delinquencies to rise and potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels,” warned Fed researchers.

    “We note a stark increase in new credit card and auto loan delinquency for borrowers with eligible student loans over the past few quarters, growing at a faster pace than those without student loans and those with ineligible loans,” they wrote.

    Those missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations. “We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief,” said the report.

    The data “may be suggestive of problems to come, a sign of economic distress that may appear particularly concerning when the burden of student loan payments resumes.”

    Future concerns: If student loan borrowers expect future debt cancellation, they may borrow even more, said researchers, which would increase debt balances even more sharply. “Absent direct policies to address this growing burden, taxpayers may be again called to for relief in the future,” they concluded.

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  • China’s capital offers $6 monthly handout to offset inflation. The public says it’s not nearly enough | CNN Business

    China’s capital offers $6 monthly handout to offset inflation. The public says it’s not nearly enough | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong
    CNN
     — 

    Beijing will give out a $6 monthly cash subsidy to low-income residents to cushion the impact of rising food prices, a move that has unexpectedly angered many online who say the amount is far too low.

    The announcement from the city government comes as food inflation accelerated in China after policymakers scrapped their zero-Covid strategy in December and eased monetary policy further to fuel economic recovery.

    Last week, protests by retirees broke out in the cities of Wuhan and Dalian over cuts to their medical care benefits, highlighting the growing risk of unrest over livelihood issues as China’s economy struggles to regain its footing after being drained by pandemic policies.

    The demonstrations were the latest outburst of public discontent since mass protests against Covid curbs gripped the country late last year. The recent protests underscored the financial pressure on local governments, after three years of the zero-Covid policy strained their coffers and a property market slump severely eroded their income.

    According to the Beijing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform, the city’s economic regulator, more than 300,000 people on low incomes will each receive a cash payment of 40 yuan (about $6) per month. The first payment will be given out later this month and it’s unclear for how long they will continue.

    “In January, food prices in Beijing rose by 6.6%, meeting the conditions for starting the price-linked subsidy program,” the state-run Beijing Daily newspaper quoted an official from the commission as saying in a Friday report.

    “[We will] try to do a good job in ensuring the basic livelihood of the needy people … and continuously enhance the people’s sense of gain, happiness and security.”

    China launched a low-income subsidy program in 2011 to offer cash handouts to the needy when the consumer price index or food prices hit certain thresholds. Each city or region sets its own standard as living costs vary across the country.

    The news of Beijing’s latest handout was not well received by the public, who took to social media to complain about the high cost of living in the city.

    “40 yuan? Are you serious? [When] the low-income people take the subway to collect the money and then they return, they lose 8 yuan,” said one comment on Weibo.

    “Is it like an insult? [The amount] just subsidizes a bowl of noodles,” another Weibo user said.

    Some people criticized the country’s weak social welfare system, while others blasted the government’s move to write off billions of debt to other countries.

    “Can’t we question the move? Do you think the current welfare system in our country is good? Can it meet the needs of people?” one said.

    China’s consumer inflation accelerated in January, as the CPI rose 2.1% from a year earlier. Although the headline figure remains relatively low compared to other countries, food prices jumped 6.2%, with pork and fruit prices rising the most.

    In Beijing, food prices outpaced the national level. Vegetable prices soared 24% last month.

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  • Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

    Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling | CNN Business

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    Washington, DC
    CNN
     — 

    Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.

    Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year.

    “A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

    Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.

    San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. But that median price of $1,577,500 is actually down 5.8% from a year ago — and prices there have already dropped 17% from the peak $1,900,000 median price in the second quarter of last year, according to NAR.

    San Francisco had the biggest price drop in the country, year over year, last quarter, with the median price of $1,230,000 — down 6.1% from a year ago. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter.

    Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%.

    Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. They also tend to be appealing lifestyle destinations where people moved to as remote work provided more flexibility. These include Boise, Idaho, where prices fell 3.4% from a year ago and Austin, Texas, where prices are down 1.3%.

    The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In addition, the price increases are smaller, with far fewer markets experiencing double-digit price gains in the fourth quarter.

    “A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42% in the past three years,” said Yun, noting these cost increases have far surpassed wage increases and consumer price inflation since 2019.

    Throughout much of the pandemic, home prices across the country moved in a single direction: up. Some hotspots like Austin and Boise saw prices skyrocket. Other areas — particularly in the Midwest — saw prices go up more moderately. Yet, because mortgage rates were near historic lows, buyers came out in droves.

    That story changed last year, when mortgage rates spiked as a result of the Federal Reserve’s historic campaign to rein in inflation. Homebuying fell off a cliff. By the end of 2022, sales of existing homes were down nearly 18% from 2021 as would-be homebuyers left the market, according to NAR.

    Typically, a drop in demand to buy would mean excess supply and ultimately lead to prices coming down. But that’s not happening, broadly speaking, in the housing market.

    Instead, prices for single-family homes climbed in nearly 90% of metro areas tracked by NAR in the fourth quarter: 166 markets out of 186 saw prices still going up. The national median price of a single-family home increased 4% last quarter from one year ago to $378,700.

    How can this be?

    One main driver of this phenomenon is that there is a shortage of inventory due to chronic underbuilding of affordable homes in the United States, along with homeowners who don’t want to part with the ultra-low mortgage rate they secured over the past few years.

    “Even with a projected reduction in home sales this year, prices are expected to remain stable in the vast majority of the markets due to extremely limited supply,” said Yun.

    There are still places where home prices continue to climb at double-digit rates. The top 10 cities with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains of at least 14.5%, with seven of those markets in Florida and the Carolinas, according to NAR.

    Farmington, New Mexico, saw the biggest price increase in the fourth quarter, up 20.3% from a year ago. It was followed by Sarasota, Florida, up 19.5%; Naples, Florida, up 17.2%; Greensboro, North Carolina, up 17.0%; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, up 16.2%; Oshkosh, Wisconsin, up 16.0%; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, up 15.7%; El Paso, Texas, up 15.2%; Punta Gorda, Florida, up 15.2%; and Daytona Beach, Florida, up 14.5%.

    In the last quarter of 2022 a family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 71 markets, up from 59 in the prior quarter, according to NAR.

    Yet there were 16 markets where a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home, although that was down from 17 the previous quarter. Some of those included Peoria, Illinois, where a family can qualify for a loan with an income of $33,660; Waterloo, Iowa, with an income of $40,639; and Montgomery, Alabama, with an income of $48,172.

    Nationally, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,969 in the fourth quarter according to NAR. That’s a 7% increase from the third quarter of last year, when the monthly payment was $1,838, but a major surge of 58% — or a $720 monthly increase — from one year ago.

    This made the affordability picture even harder for many home buyers. Families typically spent 26.2% of their income on mortgage payments, which was up from 25% in the prior quarter and 17.5% one year ago.

    First-time buyers were evidently pushed to a breaking point on affordability. They typically spent 39.5% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 37.8% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment, including principal and interest, amounts to more than 25% of the family’s income. Generally, a common financial rule of thumb is to not spend more than 30% of your income on housing costs.

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  • After a steep fall, used car prices poised to rise again | CNN Business

    After a steep fall, used car prices poised to rise again | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The price of used cars has been falling steadily, and steeply, for much of the last year. Unfortunately for car buyers, that could be about to change.

    Wholesale prices for used cars being sold at auction have risen sharply in the last few weeks, according to industry data. Higher retail prices on used car dealer lots are likely to be close behind.

    According to data from Manheim, the largest wholesale automotive marketplace, prices jumped 4% in just the last two weeks, an unusually large increase in such a short time period. While many in the industry expected the drop in prices wouldn’t last, the sudden increase caught many by surprise.

    “We did not anticipate that prices would jump as much as they have,” said Chris Frey, senior industry insights manager at Cox Automotive, which owns Manheim. “It made my eyes jump out.”

    Dealers started pulling back on their inventory of used cars as prices were declining late last year and into January. Much of the decline began late last year as a larger supply of new cars became available for purchase.

    A shortage of parts, particularly computer chips, caused automakers to scale their production back far below the demand for new vehicles, and push potential new car buyers, even rental car companies, into the used car market. That shortage of new car inventory helped drive both new and use car prices to record levels earlier last year.

    But part supplies and computer chip inventory improved in the last half of 2022, and with that used car prices started to decline. In January used car prices were down 11.6% from the year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index, the government’s key inflation reading – the biggest 12-month decline since the depths of the Great Recession in early 2009.

    The busy selling season for used cars is only months away — it’s tied to when potential buyers get their tax refunds. Now dealers are scrambling to rebuild inventories, and that is driving up prices.

    The strong labor market, with employers unexpectedly adding more than 500,000 jobs in January, is also driving demand for used cars.

    “If you want to point at one factor that drives demand for cars, it’s jobs,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds. “If you’ve got a job, you’ve got a car.”

    Part of the problem in the months ahead can be traced to the early days of the pandemic three years ago. The disruptions to the new car market at that time are about to be felt by today’s used car market.

    In March and April of 2020, auto plants across the nation were shut by stay-at-home orders, and many dealerships were closed. Demand for cars also fell off a cliff amid record job losses and millions of additional workers shifted to working from home rather than commuting.

    So the 2020 plunge in car sales meant that few people were signing up for three-year leases on new vehicles, contracts that would normally be coming to an end now and in turn feed those vehicles into the supply of used cars on the markets.

    “The repercussions of the pandemic are coming through,” Drury said. “The supply is definitely not going to be there.” The disruptions in the car markets in 2020 and early 2021 could affect used car prices much of the year.

    “We are entering a period of tight supply on 3- and 4-year-old vehicles, which make up the majority of [used] car sales,” said Michael Manley, CEO of AutoNation

    (AN)
    , the nation’s largest car dealership, in a call with investors Friday. “And that’s going to impact wholesale prices and ultimately, retail prices.”

    It’s tough to know how long the rise in used car prices will last.

    The labor market and consumer spending is strong at the moment, but there are still worries about a possible recession. The Federal Reserve appears likely to keep raising interest rates, at least in the near term, which in turn will raise the cost of car loans, and for the financing that car dealers use when purchasing their own inventories.

    The drop in used car prices has been a major factor in the slowing of inflation, but a sustained rise in used car prices could make it more difficult for the Fed to pull back on rate hikes.

    Overall prices are up 6.4% over the last 12 months, according to CPI, but that reading has fallen for seven straight months. And prices would have risen 6.9% over the same 12 month period if used car prices had posted such a steep decline and instead just stayed unchanged.

    So broader economic conditions in the US economy are certain to have an effect on supply, demand and pricing of used cars, which makes forecasting future prices very difficult, said Frey.

    “I don’t think this latest increase is a blip. But I imagine prices could come down after spring and tax refunds land,” said Frey. But he added that forecasts are tough to make in the current market.

    “We’ve been calling for a 4% decline in prices from December last year to December this year,” Frey said. “We may have to revise that.”

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  • Bad news: Consumer prices actually climbed in December | CNN Business

    Bad news: Consumer prices actually climbed in December | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    December consumer prices rose from the month before and did not fall as previously thought, according to revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday.

    The newly calibrated Consumer Price Index shows that prices rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December from November versus a previously estimated decline of 0.1%.

    Every year, the BLS recalculates seasonal adjustment factors for CPI going back five years. (However, the year-over-year data, which is not seasonally adjusted, is not revised.)

    The latest annual adjustments show slight shifts in the month-on-month inflation trend for 2022 — with November and October revised up by 0.1 percentage points.

    Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy, saw upward revisions of 0.1 percentage points in December and November to 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

    “Whether you’re talking about inflation, labor markets, GDP, these things all go through seasonal adjustment procedures and do get revised over time,” said Andrew Patterson, senior economist in Vanguard’s investment strategy group.

    “There’s not usually a whole lot of focus on it, but given the magnitude of inflation and the volatility of macro fundamentals these days, it’s probably gotten a little bit more attention than typical,” he added.

    The latest BLS tweaks show the importance of not reading into any one data point but instead reviewing a variety of different metrics over a longer-term period, he said, a point that has been repeatedly stressed by officials such as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as they measure the path of inflation.

    But the revisions don’t change the overall storyline, Patterson noted.

    “We continue to believe that inflation is going to grind down over the course of the year,” he said.

    The annual revisions also come just days before the release of the January CPI report, which will debut some modifications of its own: changing its weighting methodology from consumption patterns collected every two years to a single year of spending data.

    “This means that this 2023 CPI report will be based on consumer spending patterns that took place in 2021, as opposed to 2022’s CPI data, which was based on spending data over 2019-2020,” William Blair analyst Richard de Chazal wrote in a note Friday. “From the BLS’s perspective, this makes the data more timely and relevant, and a better reflection of actual spending patterns.”

    The adjustments could help better gauge economic activity during what’s been a very unpredictable time, noted Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist, in a Twitter thread this week.

    “The U.S. statistical agencies work extremely hard to measure and seasonally adjust the data accurately to reflect what where once considered normal season variations — everything from the surge in extreme weather events we are enduring to the unusual dynamics of an economy that is still emerging from a pandemic have distorted normal seasonal patterns,” she wrote.

    “Those shifts, coupled with the rapid pace at which the economy is currently shifting has made measuring current economic conditions more difficult. It is hard to tell where we are, let alone where the economy is headed,” she said.

    Here’s how the adjusted data looks for 2022:

    Month: Original data vs. Revised

    January: 0.6% vs. 0.6%

    February: 0.8% vs. 0.7%

    March: 1.2% vs. 1%

    April: 0.3% vs. 0.4%

    May: 1% vs. 0.9%

    June: 1.3% vs. 1.2%

    July: 0.1% vs. 0%

    August: 0.1% vs. 0.2%

    September: 0.4% vs. 0.4%

    October: 0.4% vs. 0.5%

    November: 0.1% vs. 0.2%

    December: -0.1% vs. 0.1%

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  • Japan’s workers haven’t had a raise in 30 years. Companies are under pressure to pay up | CNN Business

    Japan’s workers haven’t had a raise in 30 years. Companies are under pressure to pay up | CNN Business

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    Hong Kong/Tokyo
    CNN
     — 

    Hideya Tokiyoshi started his career as an English teacher in Tokyo about 30 years ago.

    Since then, his salary has stayed pretty much the same. That’s why, three years ago, after giving up hopes for higher pay, the schoolteacher decided to start writing books.

    “I feel lucky, as writing and selling books gives me an additional income stream. If not for that, I would’ve stayed stuck in the same wage loop,” Tokiyoshi, now 54, told CNN. “That’s why I was able to survive.”

    Tokiyoshi is part of a generation of workers in Japan who have barely gotten a raise throughout their working lives. Now, as prices rise after decades of deflation,the world’s third largest economy is being forced to reckon with the major problem of falling living standards, and companies are facing intense political pressure to pay more.

    Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is urging businesses to help workers keep up with higher living costs. Last month, he called on companies to hike pay at a level above inflation, with some already heeding the call.

    Like other parts of the world, inflation in Japan has become a major headache. In the year to December, core consumer prices rose 4%. That’s still low by comparison with America or Europe, but represents a 41-year high for Japan, where people are more used to prices going backwards.

    “In a country where you haven’t had nominal wage growth over 30 years, real wages are declining quite rapidly as a result [of inflation],” Stefan Angrick, a Tokyo-based senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN.

    Last month, Japan recorded its biggest drop in earnings, once inflation is taken into account, in nearly a decade.

    In 2021, the average annual paycheck in Japan was $39,711, compared with $37,866 in 1991, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

    That means workers got a pay bump of less than 5%, compared to a rise of 34% in other Group of Seven economies, such as France and Germany, over the same period.

    Experts have pointed to a series of reasons for the stagnant wages. For one, Japan has long grappled with the opposite of what it’s facing now: low prices. Deflation started in the mid-1990s, because of a strong yen — which pushed down the cost of imports — and the bursting of a domestic asset bubble.

    “For the past 20 years, basically, there has been no change in consumer price inflation,” said Müge Adalet McGowan, senior economist for the Japan desk at the OECD.

    Until now, consumers wouldn’t have taken a hit to their wallets or felt the need to demand better pay, she added.

    But as inflation rises, people are likely to start making “strong” complaints about the lack of raises, predicted Shintaro Yamaguchi, an economics professor at the University of Tokyo.

    Experts say Japan’s wages have also suffered because it lags in another metric: its productivity rate.

    The country’s output, measured by how much workers add to a country’s GDP per hour, is lower than the OECD average, and “probably the biggest reason” for flat wages, according to Yamaguchi.

    “Generally, wages and productivity growth go hand-in-hand together,” McGowan said. “When there’s productivity growth, firms perform better and [when] they do better, they can offer higher wages.”

    She said Japan’s aging population was an additional issue because an older labor force tends to equate to lower productivity and wages. The way people are working is also changing.

    In 2021, nearly 40% of Japan’s total workforce was employed part-time or worked irregular hours, up from roughly 20% in 1990, according to McGowan.

    “As the share of these non-regular workers has gone up, of course the average wages also stay low, because they make less,” she said.

    People crossing a street in the Ginza area of Tokyo in November. The shape of Japan's workforce is shifting, with more people working part-time.

    Japan’s unique work culture is contributing to wage stagnation, according to economists.

    Many people work in the traditional “lifetime employment” system, where companies go to extraordinary lengths to keep workers on the payroll for life, Angrick said.

    That means they’re often very cautious about raising wages in good times so that they have the means to protect their workers when times are tough.

    “They don’t want to lay people off. So they need to have that buffer in order to be able to keep them on the payroll when a crisis hits,” he said.

    Its seniority-based pay system, where workers are paid based on their rank and length of service rather than performance, lowers incentives for people to change jobs, which in other countries generally helps push up wages, according to McGowan.

    “The biggest issue in Japan’s labor market is the stubborn insistence on pay by seniority,” Jesper Koll, a prominent Japan strategist and investor, previously told CNN. “If genuine merit-based pay were introduced, there would be much more job switching and career climbing.”

    Last month, Kishida warned the economy was at stake, saying Japan risked falling into stagflation if wage rises continued to fall behind price increases. The term refers to a period of high inflation and stagnant economic growth.

    Raising wages by 3% or more a year was already a core goal of Kishida’s administration. Now, the prime minister wants to take another step further, with plans to create a more formalized system.

    Asked for details, a government spokesperson told CNN that new “comprehensive economic measures will include expanded support for wage increases, integrated with an improvement in productivity.”

    Authorities plan to roll out guidelines for companies by June, said a representative from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

    Hideya Tokiyoshi, a teacher in Japan, told CNN he had barely seen his salary go up over the last 30 years.

    Meanwhile, the country’s largest labor group, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation or Rengo, is now demanding wage increases of 5% at this year’s talks with the management of various companies. The annual negotiations kick off this month.

    In a statement, Rengo said it was making the push because workers were making “inferior wages on a global scale,” and needed help with rising prices.

    Some companies have already acted. Fast Retailing

    (FRCOF)
    , the company behind Uniqlo and Theory, announced last month that it would boost salaries in Japan by up to 40%, acknowledging that compensation had “remained low” in the country in recent years.

    While inflation was a factor, the company wanted to align “with global standards, to be able to increase our competitiveness,” a Fast Retailing spokesperson told CNN.

    According to a Reuters poll released last month, more than half of the country’s big firms are planning to raise wages this year.

    Suntory, one of Japan’s biggest beverage makers, may be one of them.

    Customers browsing for vegetables at a supermarket in Tokyo in January. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is urging businesses to hike pay and help workers keep up with the higher costs of living.

    CEO Takeshi Niinami is weighing a 6% raise for its Japanese workforce of approximately 7,000 people, according to a spokesperson, adding that it was subject to negotiation with a union.

    The news may prompt other businesses to follow suit.

    “If some of the biggest companies in Japan raise wages, many other firms will follow,” if only to stay competitive, said Yamaguchi. “Many firms look at what other firms do.”

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  • Blackouts and soaring prices: Pakistan’s economy is on the brink | CNN Business

    Blackouts and soaring prices: Pakistan’s economy is on the brink | CNN Business

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    Islamabad/London
    CNN
     — 

    Muhammad Radaqat, a 27-year-old greengrocer, is worried. He doesn’t know how much an onion will cost next week, let alone how he’ll be able to afford the fuel he needs to heat his home and keep his family warm.

    “All we’re being told by the government is that things are going to get worse,” Radaqat told CNN.

    His anxiety reflects the mood of a nation racing to ward off an economic meltdown. Faced with a shortage of US dollars, Pakistan only has enough foreign currency in its reserves to pay for three weeks of imports.

    Thousands of shipping containers are piling up at ports, and the cost of essentials like food and energy is skyrocketing. Long lines are forming at gas stations as prices swing wildly in the country of 220 million.

    A nationwide power outage last month made people even more alarmed. It brought Pakistan to a standstill, plunging residents into darkness, shutting down transit networks and forcing hospitals to rely on backup generators. Officials have not identified the cause of the blackout.

    Pressure is growing on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to unlock billions of dollars in emergency financing from the International Monetary Fund, which sent a delegation to the country this week for talks.

    Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, recently dropped to new lows against the US dollar after authorities eased currency controls to meet one of the IMF’s lending conditions. The government had been resisting the changes the IMF requested, such as easing fuel subsidies, since they would cause fresh price spikes in the short term.

    “We need the IMF agreement to go through as soon as possible for us to save the ship,” said Maha Rehman, an economist and the former head of analytics at the Centre for Economic Research in Pakistan.

    Pakistan is experiencing what economists call a balance-of-payments crisis. The country has been spending more on trade than it has brought in, running down its stock of foreign currency and weighing on the rupee’s value. These dynamics make interest payments on debt from foreign lenders even more expensive and push the cost of importing goods higher still, requiring even bigger drawdowns in reserves that compound the distress.

    The country is also grappling with rampant price increases. The country’s central bank has hiked its key interest rate to 17% in a bid to clamp down on annual consumer inflation of almost 28%.

    Some issues the country faces are specific to Pakistan. Political instability and efforts to prop up its currency, for example, have weighed on investment and exports, according to Tahir Abbas, head of investment research at Arif Habib, the country’s largest securities brokerage.

    Historic floods last summer have also led to huge bills for reconstruction and aid, adding to strains on the government budget. The World Bank has estimated that at least $16 billion is needed to cope with damage and losses.

    Pakistan's usually bustling ports, like this one in Karachi, have ground to a halt as the country grapples with a severe shortage of foreign currency.

    Yet global factors are making the situation worse. The economic slowdown has weighed on demand for Pakistan’s exports, while a sharp rally in the value of the US dollar last year piled pressure on countries that import significant volumes of food and fuel. Prices for these commodities had already spiked due to the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, requiring larger outlays.

    The IMF has warned repeatedly that this could stress vulnerable economies. While it forecasts that emerging market and developing economies will see a modest uptick in growth this year as the dollar comes off its highs, global inflation falls and China’s reopening spurs demand, the ability to manage debt loads remains a concern.

    It estimated this week that 15% of low-income countries are already in debt distress, while another 45% are at high risk of struggling to meet their obligations. An additional 25% of emerging market economies are also at high risk. Tunisia, Egypt and Ghana have all sought IMF bailouts worth billions of dollars in recent months.

    “The combination of high debt levels from the pandemic, lower growth and higher borrowing costs exacerbates the vulnerability of these economies, especially those with significant near-term dollar financing needs,” the IMF wrote in its world economic outlook this week.

    For Pakistan to avoid default, talks with the IMF to restart its stalled assistance program must succeed, according to investors and economists. The IMF’s delegation arrived on Tuesday and is set to stay through Feb. 9.

    “Availability of the IMF loan is critical,” said Ammar Habib Khan, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.

    But Farooq Tirmizi, the CEO of Elphinstone, a startup geared at Pakistani investors, said that even if the IMF program resumes, it won’t fix all the problems, since the main issues plaguing Pakistan are “not economic, but political, with a government in place that is not willing to make structural changes.”

    Pakistan’s economic crisis was at the center of a political showdown between Sharif and his predecessor, Imran Khan, last year. Khan was ousted by a no-confidence vote in April after Sharif accused him of economic mismanagement.

    The situation has remained turbulent since then. Pakistan has gone through three finance ministers in less than a year. The last two were part of the current government, raising questions about whether Sharif can hold onto power. The country is expected to hold a general election this summer.

    A woman checks rice prices at a wholesale market in Karachi, Pakistan.

    The tumult comes as Pakistan faces a fresh wave of attacks by militants. Earlier this week, a suicide bomb ripped through a mosque in the city of Peshawar, killing at least 100 people. It was one of the deadliest attacks in the country in years.

    People are suffering in the meantime. Farmers who lost cotton, date, sugar and rice crops to flooding still need help. The World Bank predicted in October that as many as nine million Pakistanis could be pushed into poverty without “decisive relief and recovery efforts to help the poor.”

    High inflation is only boosting pain for households struggling to make ends meet. Food prices in January rose 43% year over year, according to data released this week.

    Attention focused recently on a man in the southern province of Sindh who lost his life in a scramble to obtain a bag of subsidized flour handed out by local authorities. He was crushed to death by the crowd alongside him.

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  • Jobs report to give further clues about where economy is headed | CNN Business

    Jobs report to give further clues about where economy is headed | CNN Business

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    A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here.


    New York
    CNN
     — 

    The Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates again on Wednesday. But will it be another half-point hike or just a quarter-point increase? And what about the rest of the year?

    The Fed’s actions beyond this week’s meeting will depend primarily on whether inflation is truly slowing. Investors will get another clue when the January jobs report is released on Friday.

    Economists predict that 185,000 jobs were added last month, a slowdown from the gain of 223,000 jobs in December and 263,000 in November. A further deceleration in the labor market would likely please the Fed, as it would show that last year’s rate hikes are successfully taking some air out of the economy.

    The Fed knows it’s in a tough situation. Inflation pressures are partly fueled by wage gains for workers. In an environment where the unemployment rate is at a half-century low of 3.5%, employees have been able to command big increases in pay to keep up with rising prices of consumer goods and services.

    Along those lines, average hourly earnings, a measure of wages that is also part of the monthly jobs report, are expected to increase 4.3% year-over year. That’s down from 4.6% in December and 5.1% in November.

    As wage growth cools, so do price increases. The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation – the Personal Consumption Price Index or PCE – rose “just” 5% over the past 12 months through last December, compared to a 5.5% annual increase in November.

    That is still uncomfortably high, but the trend is moving in the right direction.

    The problem for the Fed, though, is that it may need to keep raising interest rates until there is further evidence that the labor market is cooling off enough to push the rate of inflation even lower.

    Several other job market indicators continue to show that the US economy is in no serious danger of a recession just yet. The number of people filing for weekly jobless claims dipped last week to 186,000, a nine-month low. Investors will get the latest weekly initial claims numbers on Thursday.

    The market will also be closely watching reports about private-sector job growth from payroll processor ADP and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Department of Labor this week. The last JOLTS report showed that more jobs were available than expected in November.

    Still, some expect that wage growth should continue to fall, which should take pressure off the Fed somewhat.

    “Wage growth has been on a slowing trajectory, and we suspect that softer wage growth will be a trend in 2023 as jobs available contract,” said Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, a wealth management firm, in a report.

    Not everyone agrees with that assessment. Organized labor has been winning bigger pay increases lately in the transportation industry. And more workers at tech and retail giants have been unionizing as of late.

    “Workers will be loath to relinquish the bargaining power they perceive to have gained over the past year,” said Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam, in a report.

    Vaillancourt also pointed out that many consumers are still flush with cash that they saved up during the early stages of the pandemic. That could mean that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon.

    And even though the pace of jobs gains may be slowing, it’s not as if economists are starting to predict monthly job losses like the US has had in previous recessions.

    “Combine a strong labor market with a still substantial reserve of excess savings, and you have all the components in place to keep the Fed up at night,” Vaillancourt said.

    So as long as hopes for an economic “soft landing” persist, the Fed will have to keep worrying that inflation is too high. That increases the chances the Fed could go too far with rate hikes and ultimately lead to a recession.

    Wall Street is clearly buying into the “soft landing” argument. Just look at how well tech stocks have done so far this year, despite a series of high-profile layoff announcements from top Silicon Valley companies in the past few months.

    The Nasdaq is up 11% so far in January, putting it on track for its best monthly performance since July.

    Some argue that more tech layoffs won’t be a problem. Investors seem to be (somewhat perversely) taking the view that companies cutting costs is a good thing for profits and that revenue likely won’t be impacted in a negative way because consumers are still spending.

    “A theme that can’t go unnoticed this month is how traders are rewarding firms for cutting jobs. With corporate layoffs making headlines each evening, you might think the consumer is strained. Maybe not so much. It turns out that demand is decent,” said Frank Newman, portfolio manager at Ally Invest, in a report.

    But a continuation of the Nasdaq’s surge may depend a lot on how well a quartet of tech leaders do when they report fourth quarter earnings next week: Facebook and Instagram owner Meta Platforms, Apple

    (AAPL)
    , Google owner Alphabet

    (GOOGL)
    and Amazon

    (AMZN)
    .

    “A set of much weaker-than-expected reports from these firms could dent the market’s strong start to 2023,” said Daniel Berkowitz, senior investment officer for investment manager Prudent Management Associates, in a report.

    So far, tech earnings season is not off to an inspiring start, with Microsoft

    (MSFT)
    , Intel

    (INTC)
    and IBM

    (IBM)
    all reporting weak results. But it’s important to note that that trio is part of the “old tech” guard while Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all have more rapidly growing businesses.

    Tesla

    (TSLA)
    reported strong results last week, which could be a sign of good things to come from other more dynamic tech companies.

    Monday: IMF releases world outlook; earnings from Philips

    (PHG)
    , GE Healthcare, Franklin Resources

    (BEN)
    , SoFi, Ryanair

    (RYAAY)
    , Whirlpool

    (WHR)
    and Principal Financial

    (PFG)

    Tuesday: China official PMI; Europe GDP; US employment cost index; US consumer confidence; earnings from Exxon Mobil

    (XOM)
    , Samsung

    (SSNLF)
    , GM

    (GM)
    , Phillips 66

    (PSX)
    , Marathon Petroleum

    (MPC)
    , UPS

    (UPS)
    , Pfizer

    (PFE)
    , Sysco

    (SYY)
    , Caterpillar

    (CAT)
    , UBS

    (UBS)
    , McDonald’s

    (MCD)
    , Spotify

    (SPOT)
    , Mondelez

    (MDLZ)
    , Amgen

    (AMGN)
    , AMD

    (AMD)
    , Electronic Arts

    (EA)
    , Snap

    (SNAP)
    and Match

    (MTCH)

    Wednesday: Fed meeting; US ADP private sector jobs; US JOLTS; China Caixin PMI; Europe inflation; earnings from AmerisourceBergen

    (ABC)
    , Humana

    (HUM)
    , T-Mobile

    (TMUS)
    , Novartis

    (NVS)
    , Altria

    (MO)
    , Peloton

    (PTON)
    , Meta Platforms, McKesson

    (MCK)
    , MetLife

    (MET)
    and AllState

    (ALL)

    Thursday: US weekly jobless claims; US productivity; BOE meeting; ECB meting; Germany trade data; earnings from Cardinal Health

    (CAH)
    , ConocoPhillips

    (COP)
    , Merck

    (MRK)
    , Bristol-Myers

    (BMY)
    , Honeywell

    (HON)
    , Eli Lilly

    (LLY)
    , Stanley Black & Decker

    (SWK)
    , Hershey

    (HSY)
    , Sirius XM

    (SIRI)
    , Penn Entertainment

    (PENN)
    , Ferrari

    (RACE)
    , Harley-Davidso

    (HOG)
    n, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Ford

    (F)
    , Qualcomm

    (QCOM)
    , Starbucks

    (SBUX)
    , Gilead Sciences

    (GILD)
    , Hartford Financial

    (HIG)
    , Clorox

    (CLX)
    and WWE

    (WWE)

    Friday: US jobs report; US ISM non-manufacturing (services) index; earnings from Cigna

    (CI)
    , Sanofi

    (SNY)
    , LyondellBasell

    (LYB)
    and Regeneron

    (REGN)

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  • Prices rose at a slower pace last month, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge shows | CNN Business

    Prices rose at a slower pace last month, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge shows | CNN Business

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    Minneapolis
    CNN
     — 

    The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices rose at a slower pace last month, indicating further progress in the central bank’s battle with higher prices.

    The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, rose by 5% in December, compared to a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

    In December alone, prices rose 0.1% from November.

    On a month-to-month basis, prices for goods decreased 0.7% and prices for services increased 0.5%, according to the PCE price index for December. Within those categories, food prices increased 0.2% and energy prices decreased 5.1%.

    Core PCE, which doesn’t include the more volatile food and energy categories, increased by 4.4% annually, down from November’s annual rate of 4.7%. On a monthly basis, it was up 0.3%.

    Core PCE, which is now at its lowest level since October 2021, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge as it provides a more complete picture of consumer costs and spending.

    “It’s clear, continued progress on the inflation front — which is something we expected, but good to see,” Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist, told CNN. “I think you’re seeing continued softening across the entire report.”

    The data showed that consumers pulled back in December, with spending falling by 0.2% from the month before. Personal income rose 0.2% last month, the smallest increase since April.

    Through much of 2022, consumer spending remained robust in spite of high inflation, rising interest rates, and simmering recession fears. However, as the months dragged on, economic data suggested that consumers were running out of dry powder: Reliance on credit grew and delinquencies started to tick up, while savings levels declined.

    Retail sales fell 1.1% in December, the Commerce Department reported earlier this month.

    In Friday’s report, the personal saving rate as a percentage of disposable income increased to 3.4% from 2.9% in November. The savings rate is now up 1 percentage point from its September low.

    The increase is “a sign that consumers are growing cautious after rapidly drawing down their savings last year,” Lydia Boussour, senior economist for EY Parthenon, said in a statement.

    Separately on Friday, a closely watched measurement of consumer attitudes toward the economy showed increased confidence in January for the second consecutive month. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index landed at 64.9 for January, up nearly 9% from December.

    Despite the uptick, the director of the school’s Surveys of Consumers cautioned that there are “considerable downside risks” to sentiment and that two-thirds of consumers surveyed said they expect an economic downturn to occur in the next year.

    Massud Ghaussy, senior analyst of Nasdaq IR Intelligence, said consumer sentiment hinges heavily on the labor market.

    “The big question this year so far is, ‘is the jobs market the next shoe to fall?’” he told CNN. “The economic picture is still quite murky, and the reason why we’re seeing consumer confidence still relatively strong is because of a strong job market.”

    Friday’s PCE report is the last key inflation data before the Federal Reserve meets next week for its first policymaking meeting of 2023.

    Economists and investors are expecting the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by just quarter of a point, signaling another downshift following a spree of blockbuster rate hikes last year.

    The Fed is not expected to pivot simply because inflation is cooling, Davis said, noting that PCE isn’t yet at the Fed’s 2% target.

    The labor market, which has remained strong and tight despite inflation and interest rate hikes, remains a crucial area of focus in the Fed’s inflation fight. The latest data on employment turnover as well as job growth will be released next week.

    “The labor market is clearly Exhibit A in this debate between a soft landing or a mild recession,” Davis said. “The bigger wild card is, do the modest layoffs that we’re seeing in the technology sector in particular spread to other parts of the economy?”

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