Young men in recent years have become more politically conservative. But will they vote? Kellen Browning, a New York Times reporter covering the 2024 election with a focus on Nevada and Arizona, discusses the Trump campaign’s efforts to court the group.
Kellen Browning, Christina Shaman and Stephanie Rose
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restore Roe v. Wade.
it’s no place for government.
it’s between a woman and her doctor.
no federal ban.
it’s best left up to the states.
they’re pro-life.
Josh Riley, the Democratic challenger running for Congress in New York’s 19th District, has a clear message on abortion: “I believe that women’s health care decisions are women’s health care decisions and that politicians should stay the hell out of it.”
And his Republican opponent, the incumbent Representative Marc Molinaro, is saying nearly the same thing: “I believe health care decisions should be between a woman and her doctor, not Washington.”
Across the country’s most competitive House races, Republicans have spent months trying to redefine themselves on abortion, going so far as to borrow language that would not feel out of place at a rally of Vice President Kamala Harris. Many Republicans who until recently backed federal abortion restrictions are now saying the issue should be left to the states.
At least a half-dozen Republican candidates have put out direct-to-camera ads declaring their opposition to a federal abortion ban. Instead, they say, they support exceptions to existing state laws and back protections for reproductive health care, such as I.V.F.
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Anthony D’Esposito Republican, N.Y. 4 Mike Lawler Republican, N.Y. 17 Marc Molinaro Republican, N.Y. 19 Joe Kent Republican, Wash. 3 Michelle Steel Republican, C.A. 45 Juan Ciscomani Republican, Ariz. 6
Democrats have raised the possibility of a nationwide abortion ban should Republicans win in November, and they are framing the campaign as another referendum on the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade. They are hoping to continue their run of electoral successes since the 2022 decision to win back control of the House.
Any new federal legislation on abortion would have to pass both the House and the Senate and be signed by the president to become law. But whichever party emerges with a majority in the House will have the ability to dictate the legislative agenda, including whether measures to restrict or expand abortion access have the chance to pass.
Republicans in California and New York in particular, who are running in swing districts in blue states that favor abortion rights, have felt the most pressure to address the issue directly. “If we don’t talk about the issue, we become whatever the Democrats say we are,” said Will Reinert, the press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
To better understand how abortion is playing a role in these campaigns, The New York Times surveyed candidates from both parties in the most competitive House races about their support for federal limits on abortion. The Times also looked at voting records, issues listed on campaign websites, debate and media coverage, and endorsements from major abortion rights and anti-abortion groups.
The Times survey showed that while Republicans are notably focused on what they will not do on abortion at the federal level, their Democratic opponents are talking about what they will do to protect abortion rights. Nearly all the Democratic candidates said they supported restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade, which would allow access to abortion until fetal viability, or around 24 weeks, in every state.
In attack ads, Democrats are pointing to their opponents’ voting records or past statements as evidence of extremism — despite what they may be saying now.
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Josh Riley campaign Democrat, N.Y. 19 Will Rollins campaign Democrat, Calif. 41
More broadly, abortion rights groups said Republicans are misleading voters by claiming they do not support an outright abortion “ban,” when they might support a federal “limit” or “standard,” such as the 15-week proposal put forward by Senator Lindsey Graham in 2022.
“They are playing around with the semantics; they are clearly testing out different framing and messaging in an attempt to try and deceive voters because they realize how politically unpopular their policy stances are,” said Jessica Arons, a director of policy and government affairs at the American Civil Liberties Union.
Republicans in the Times survey almost universally declined to answer questions about gestational limits. Only one, Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, said he supported a specific federal limit, in the third trimester.
“I do not support a federal abortion ban. The Dobbs decision decided this was an issue left to the states and that’s where I believe policy on the issue should be decided.”
David Valadao Republican, Calif. 22
“At the federal level, I would only support legislation to outlaw late-term abortion, with protections for the three exceptions. Otherwise, states must vote on this issue.”
Don Bacon Republican, Neb. 2
“I am pro-life, believe abortion stops a beating heart, and oppose taxpayer funded abortion. Since the U.S. Supreme Court has returned this issue to the states, I will not vote for a national abortion ban.”
Gabe Evans Republican, Colo. 8
The Republican shift away from publicly supporting a federal ban follows the lead of former President Donald J. Trump, who has changed his own language on the issue after seeing the electoral backlash to the Dobbs decision.
As recently as 2021, a majority of House Republicans — including seven incumbents in this year’s tossup races — co-sponsored the Life at Conception Act, a bill that would have amounted to a nationwide abortion ban. This year, Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania’s 10th District was the only incumbent in a competitive race to stay on as a co-sponsor.
Two Republican incumbents who now say they oppose a national ban — Representatives Ken Calvert and David Valadao in California — voted in favor of a 20-week ban that passed the House in 2017. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, an Iowa Republican, co-sponsored a 15-week ban on abortion in 2022. She did not respond to questions about whether she still supports it.
Other Republicans described themselves as personally “pro-life” but said they accepted the abortion laws in place in their states. Rob Bresnahan Jr., a challenger in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, said he supported the state’s current law, which allows abortion until 24 weeks.
Democrats, when they were not attacking Republicans, leaned into language about personal freedom, with many in the survey saying the government should not be involved in medical decisions.
Another common refrain was that the decision to have an abortion should be “between a woman and her doctor.” Two Democrats used similar language rather than explicitly calling for federal abortion protections.
“Abortion is health care. This is not a place for government interference. I trust every person I know and love, and any New Mexican to make that decision for themselves.”
Gabe Vasquez Democrat, N.M. 2
“I have always believed that this decision should be left between a woman, her doctor and within her own faith.”
Rudy Salas Democrat, Calif. 22
“I believe the decisions a woman makes for her body and her family are deeply personal and politicians have no place telling her what she can and cannot do.”
Tony Vargas Democrat, Neb. 2
By appearing to moderate their stance on abortion, candidates have risked losing the backing of prominent advocacy groups. Only three Republicans in the tossup races received an endorsement from Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, and seven received one from National Right to Life.
Two major abortion rights groups, by contrast, endorsed nearly all the Democratic candidates. Planned Parenthood — whose political action fund is pouring $40 million into the campaign — endorsed all but six candidates, while Reproductive Freedom for All endorsed all but four.
| Candidate | Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America | National Right to Life |
|---|---|---|
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Anderson Va. 7 |
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Bacon* Neb. 2 |
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Buckhout N.C. 1 |
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Begich Alaska At-Large |
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Ciscomani* Ariz. 6 |
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Miller-Meeks* Iowa 1 |
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Nunn* Iowa 3 |
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Perry* Pa. 10 |
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Schweikert* Ariz. 1 |
| Candidate | Planned Parenthood | Repro. Freedom for All |
|---|---|---|
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Altman N.J. 7 |
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Baccam Iowa 3 |
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Bohannan Iowa 1 |
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Bynum Ore. 5 |
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Caraveo* Colo. 8 |
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Cartwright* Pa. 8 |
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Davis* N.C. 1 |
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Engel Ariz. 6 |
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Gillen N.Y. 4 |
Representative Jared Golden, the Democratic incumbent in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District — an area Mr. Trump won by six points in 2020 — did not get Planned Parenthood’s endorsement this year. He said the reason was his vote for the 2024 defense policy bill, which included an amendment blocking reimbursement for abortion travel costs for service members.
Mr. Golden said he was not concerned about the lack of support from the group, pointing instead to his co-sponsorship of the Women’s Health Protection Act, a bill to restore the protections of Roe.
“I’m quite confident that voters in Maine know where I stand,” he said.
The New York Times asked candidates and their campaigns about support for a federal minimum standard on abortion. Statements have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
|
Mary Peltola* No response to survey. “Roe v. Wade set a precedent that was the law of the land for 50 years. She believes that standard was the right one — furthermore we know the importance of having strong exceptions for rape, incest, life of mother and health of mother throughout.” |
Nick Begich No response to survey. “While I strongly support efforts that defend the rights of those not yet born, the courts have made it clear, abortion is a state issue and not an issue for the federal government to decide.” |
|
Amish Shah No response to survey. “As a doctor, I understand that these personal decisions should be made by women and their physicians. That’s why we need to codify Roe v. Wade and give women across the country the right to control their own bodies and health care.” |
David Schweikert* No response to survey. “It’s pretty clear that it belongs to the states,” via Business Insider. |
|
Kirsten Engel No response to survey. “Protecting women’s reproductive freedoms at the federal level will be one of my top priorities when elected to Congress. Women had those protections for over 50 years when Roe v. Wade was the law of the land, and that is what I will advocate for us to return to.” |
Juan Ciscomani* No response to survey. “I’m pro-life, I reject the extremes, and I trust women. I’m against a federal ban on abortion. I’m for timetables and exceptions, including for rape, incest and the life of the mother,” via campaign site. |
|
Adam Gray No response to survey. “What I support and will vote for is restoring Roe v. Wade into federal law so that women regain the federal rights they had for generations.” |
John Duarte* No response to survey. “Congressman Duarte opposes federal abortion restrictions.” |
|
Rudy Salas No response to survey. “I have always believed that this decision should be left between a woman, her doctor and within her own faith. Women should have the freedom to choose what happens with their own bodies and to determine their own health care.” |
David Valadao* No response to survey. “I do not support a federal abortion ban. The Dobbs decision decided this was an issue left to the states and that’s where I believe policy on the issue should be decided.” |
|
George Whitesides No response to survey. “I strongly support a woman’s right to make her own health care decisions, and if elected to Congress, I will vote to codify Roe v. Wade to ensure reproductive freedom for all Americans.” |
Mike Garcia* No response to survey. “I oppose a national abortion ban — California’s law on abortion stays the law — and I support exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.” |
|
Will Rollins No response to survey. “I support a federal minimum standard for abortion. In Congress, I will advocate for legislation that restores Roe v. Wade, which prohibits states from banning abortions before fetal viability. It’s critical that we protect a woman’s right to choose nationwide.” |
Ken Calvert* No response to survey. “Congressman Calvert does not support a federal abortion ban and supports the right of Californians to determine this for themselves.” |
|
Derek Tran No response to survey. “Derek Tran supports enshrining reproductive rights into law as California voters did through Proposition 1 in 2022.” |
Michelle Steel* No response to survey. “Michelle’s position has always been, and remains, that this issue is best left up to the states, and she does not support a national ban on abortion.” |
|
Yadira Caraveo* No response to survey. “Rep. Caraveo believes we need to codify Roe v. Wade. This was the law of the land for decades, and since the Dobbs decision, the lives of far too many women have been at risk.” |
Gabe Evans No response to survey. “I am pro-life, believe abortion stops a beating heart, and oppose taxpayer-funded abortion. Since the U.S. Supreme Court has returned this issue to the states, I will not vote for a national abortion ban.” |
|
Christina Bohannan No response to survey. “On Day 1 in Congress, I will work to codify Roe v. Wade and ensure women in Iowa and across the country once again have the freedom to make their own health care decisions.” |
Mariannette Miller-Meeks* No response to survey. “The congresswoman has been clear that she is pro-life with the exceptions of rape, incest, and life of the mother.” |
|
Lanon Baccam No response to survey. “It’s more important than ever to restore the protections of Roe v. Wade, and that’s why I’ll support the Women’s Health Protection Act in Congress. I believe women’s health care decisions should be between her and her doctor — not politicians.” |
Zach Nunn* No response to survey. “He is pro-life, but has voted for exceptions. He’s fought for expanded access to contraception and IVF. He opposes a national abortion ban.” |
|
Jared Golden* No response to survey. “I’m a cosponsor of the Women’s Health Protection Act, to restore Roe, and I would vote for it if it came to the floor again.” |
Austin Theriault No response to survey. “Austin opposes and will vote against a national abortion ban.” |
|
Curtis Hertel No response to survey. “When Roe was overturned and abortion rights came under attack in our state, I worked across the aisle to get rid of the 1931 abortion ban and fought to enshrine abortion rights in Michigan’s constitution. I’m running to make Roe the law of the land and protect reproductive freedom.” |
Tom Barrett No response to survey. “Tom does not support a federal ban. He has consistently argued this is a decision for the states and while he disagrees with Prop. 3, Michigan voters have made that decision.” |
|
Kristen McDonald Rivet No response to survey. “After Roe was overturned, I protected abortion rights in Michigan by helping to repeal our state’s 1931 ban without exceptions for rape or incest. In Congress, I’ll fight for a federal law restoring the Roe standard across America.” |
Paul Junge No response to survey. “I would never and have never supported a national abortion ban.” |
|
Tony Vargas No response to survey. “I believe the decisions a woman makes for her body, and her family, are deeply personal and politicians have no place telling her what she can and cannot do. In Congress, I’ll vote to codify the protections earned from the Roe v. Wade decision into federal law.” |
Don Bacon* No response to survey. “I support the Nebraska law that puts a reasonable three-month restriction on abortions with exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the mother. At the federal level, I would only support legislation to outlaw late-term abortion, with protections for the three exceptions. Otherwise, states must vote on this issue.” |
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Gabe Vasquez* No response to survey. “Abortion is health care. This is not a place for government interference. I trust every person I know and love, and any New Mexican, to make that decision for themselves.” |
Yvette Herrell No response to survey. “Yvette has been clear that since the Dobbs decision returned abortion policy to the states, she does not support a federal ban.” |
|
Sue Altman No response to survey. “Sue will work to protect access to contraception, reproductive choice, and women’s health,” via campaign site. |
Thomas Kean Jr.* No response to survey. “Tom is opposed to a national abortion ban. He has voted to protect access to mifepristone and believes any legislation should be left to the voters of each state to advocate for their positions to their legislatures.” |
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Mondaire Jones No response to survey. “We must enshrine protections for abortion into federal law.” |
Mike Lawler* No response to survey. “He does not and never will support a national abortion ban.” |
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Josh Riley No response to survey. “I believe that women’s health care decisions are women’s health care decisions and that politicians should stay the hell out of it. In Congress, I will codify the right to abortion as it existed under Roe v. Wade into law.” |
Marc Molinaro* No response to survey. “I believe health care decisions should be between a woman and her doctor, not Washington. I kept my promise to reject a national abortion ban — keeping New York’s laws in place.” |
|
Laura Gillen No response to survey. “The standard should be the same as it was the day before the disastrous Dobbs decision. It worked for a half a century, and we should return to it.” |
Anthony D’Esposito* No response to survey. “Congressman D’Esposito does not support a nationwide abortion ban and believes legislating on abortion should fall under the purview of state governments.” |
|
Don Davis* No response to survey. “Congress must take action and codify Roe v. Wade. He firmly believes that a woman’s health decisions should remain private between her and her doctor,” via campaign site. |
Laurie Buckhout No response to survey. “As the only candidate to be endorsed by the pro-life SBA (Susan B. Anthony) List, I believe every life is precious and would vote to preserve life, including the mother’s,” via The Perquimans Weekly. |
|
Emilia Sykes* No response to survey. “Congresswoman Sykes has a strong record of supporting the protections provided under Roe that give women across the country the right to make decisions about what is best for their bodies.” |
Kevin Coughlin No response to survey. “Issues related to abortion are best left to the states, and there should be no federal ban.” |
|
Janelle Bynum No response to survey. “Rep. Bynum supports codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law so that women across the country can have those rights back. This is a decision that should be kept between a woman and her doctors.” |
Lori Chavez-DeRemer* No response to survey. “The congresswoman doesn’t support any federal standard limiting Oregonians’ access to abortion.” |
|
Susan Wild* No response to survey. “I have always believed that private medical decisions, including whether or not to receive abortion care, should be made by a woman, her doctor, her partner and her faith if she so chooses.” |
Ryan Mackenzie No response to survey. “He’s opposed to a national abortion ban; he supports exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.” |
|
Matt Cartwright* No response to survey. “I strongly support the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would restore Roe’s protections into federal law. We should trust women with their health care decisions, not politicians.” |
Rob Bresnahan Jr. No response to survey. “Rob Bresnahan does not support a national abortion ban and does support the current Pennsylvania protections of 24 weeks and exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother. ” |
|
Janelle Stelson No response to survey. “I think these most intimate health care decisions should be made by women and their doctors … If elected, I will put those decisions back in the hands of women, where they belong.” |
Scott Perry* No response to survey. “Scott Perry believes firmly in the sanctity of Life — period. He makes exceptions for circumstances that involve rape, incest and danger to the life of the mother,” via campaign site. |
|
Eugene Vindman No response to survey. “In Congress, I will fight to make sure that the rights of women and girls in Virginia are never dependent on politicians in Richmond or Washington by voting to restore the protections of Roe nationwide.” |
Derrick Anderson No response to survey. “Derrick opposes and would vote against a national abortion ban.” |
|
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez* No response to survey. “Marie is an original co-sponsor of the Women’s Health Protection Act and supports codifying the abortion protections of Roe v. Wade in federal law, as well as ensuring women have continued access to contraception and I.V.F.” |
Joe Kent No response to survey. “Following the Supreme Court decision that made abortion a state issue, Joe Kent opposes any new federal legislation on the issue.” |
Methodology
The New York Times survey asked candidates or their campaigns two questions: 1) Do you support any federal minimum standard on abortion? 2) If so, until how many weeks in pregnancy (i.e. 6 weeks, 15 weeks, viability, etc.)?
Those surveyed were major-party candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives whose races were rated “tossups” by the Cook Political Report at any point in October 2024. Alaska’s at-large congressional district includes four candidates and will be decided by ranked-choice voting; the two candidates who received the most votes in the primary were included in the survey. All but six candidates responded to emailed requests for comment. In these cases, position summaries were taken from campaign websites or from other public statements.
Note: Counts of candidate statements in the top graphic were taken from survey responses only.
Additional work by June Kim.
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transcript
00:00:00.000 —> 00:00:03.210 Not interested in seeing Biden-Trump rematch again. 00:00:03.210 —> 00:00:04.730 We’ve done that already. 00:00:04.730 —> 00:00:06.860 I think both parties can do better. 00:00:06.860 —> 00:00:09.320 I kind of felt like, why are you making me choose 00:00:09.320 —> 00:00:10.760 between these two people? 00:00:10.760 —> 00:00:13.790 ”We are here at the Iowa State Fair, that bastion 00:00:13.790 —> 00:00:15.770 of fried food and politics, to talk 00:00:15.770 —> 00:00:19.460 to voters about how they are feeling about the 2024 00:00:19.460 —> 00:00:20.047 election.“ 00:00:20.047 —> 00:00:22.130 The polls are showing us that a lot of the people — 00:00:22.130 —> 00:00:24.500 the candidates coming through this fair greeting, 00:00:24.500 —> 00:00:26.600 voters, making their stump speech — 00:00:26.600 —> 00:00:28.880 really don’t have a chance, at least not right now, 00:00:28.880 —> 00:00:32.000 unless things change — that this is really shaping up 00:00:32.000 —> 00:00:35.090 to be a race between a president, Joe Biden, 00:00:35.090 —> 00:00:37.220 and a former president, Donald Trump, 00:00:37.220 —> 00:00:39.750 coming back together for a rematch. 00:00:39.750 —> 00:00:41.960 And that’s really something that voters are not very 00:00:41.960 —> 00:00:43.430 enthusiastic about. 00:00:43.430 —> 00:00:45.300 I do feel like people want options. 00:00:45.300 —> 00:00:49.290 And it’s not like a — like, cut-and-dry thing. 00:00:49.290 —> 00:00:50.630 Right? You did it. 00:00:50.630 —> 00:00:51.950 You’re done. 00:00:51.950 —> 00:00:53.610 Let’s get some fresh blood in here. 00:00:53.610 —> 00:00:57.080 I would want someone younger who 00:00:57.080 —> 00:00:59.690 is less committed to the two-party system in the sense 00:00:59.690 —> 00:01:03.150 that I feel like people run based on party values and not 00:01:03.150 —> 00:01:04.410 individual values. 00:01:04.410 —> 00:01:05.800 We’re not getting younger voters. 00:01:05.800 —> 00:01:07.590 And so the older voters are kind 00:01:07.590 —> 00:01:10.120 of staying with who they know 00:01:10.120 —> 00:01:12.660 and what we’ve seen — you know, sometimes lesser of two 00:01:12.660 —> 00:01:13.540 evils. 00:01:13.540 —> 00:01:15.270 ”If the choice is Trump-Biden, 00:01:15.270 —> 00:01:18.020 you guys, 100 percent —“ ”Oh, 100 percent Trump. Yep.“ 00:01:18.020 —> 00:01:21.600 I would bite my tongue and go ahead and vote for Trump 00:01:21.600 —> 00:01:22.740 again. 00:01:22.740 —> 00:01:25.770 Would vote Biden again just for our two-party 00:01:25.770 —> 00:01:26.830 political system 00:01:26.830 —> 00:01:29.440 that kind of doesn’t give us very many options. 00:01:29.440 —> 00:01:31.810 So it’ll be interesting to see as we move forward, 00:01:31.810 —> 00:01:34.890 whether people do get more enthusiastic about 00:01:34.890 —> 00:01:37.980 their party’s nominee as we get closer to Election Day, 00:01:37.980 —> 00:01:42.060 or if we see a contest where turnout isn’t quite as high 00:01:42.060 —> 00:01:45.560 as we’ve been seeing in the past couple races.
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