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Tag: Prediction Markets

  • Kalshi Touts Success in Closing MrBeast, Political Insider Trading Cases

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    Posted on: February 25, 2026, 04:37h. 

    Last updated on: February 25, 2026, 04:37h.

    • Prediction market operator is clamping down on insider trading
    • One case involved an editor working for social media star MrBeast
    • Another involved the California gubernatorial race

    Kalshi wants market participants and regulators to know it takes allegations of insider trading seriously with the prediction today highlighting success in closing two such cases.

    Kalshi word mark on a black background on a phone
    A Kalshi social media ad. The company successfully closed a pair of insider trading cases. (Image: Getty)

    One of the cases involved an editor working for YouTube personality MrBeast, who’s well-known in gaming circles. The other pertained alleged insider trading involving the California race for governor. The MrBeast staffer is said to have traded approximately $4,000 in YouTube markets on Kalshi.

    In both of these cases, our systems flagged the trades and our surveillance team froze the traders’ accounts. Neither trader withdrew any profits,” according to the prediction market operator. “These penalties are not indicative of future penalties – everything depends on the case, including amount traded and rules violated.”

    Kalshi levied a two-year suspension and a financial penalty equivalent to five times the trade size against the MrBeast employee.

    Not California Dreamin’ on Kalshi

    In the other case, Kalshi suspended Republican Kyle Langford who previously wagered on himself in the California governor’s race and posted about it on social media. He’s since dropped out of that contest and is running for congress in the state’s 26th district.

    “Punishment: 5-year ban + financial penalty (10 times the initial trade size). Note: this candidate recently announced he is no longer running for Governor and is now instead running for Congress,” adds Kalshi.

    Separately, Stephen Cloobeck, a significant donor to Democrat candidates and himself a former candidate for California’s top office, was barred from trading Kalshi event contracts on California’s gubernatorial after he touted making bets on friend Rep. Eric Swalwell (D).

    One of Cloobeck’s wagers was $1,000 on Swalwell to become the next governor of the Golden State. Another was $2,000 on the congressman to beat San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D) in the upcoming primary. Cloobeck has only been barred from trading the California gubernatorial market on Kalshi.

    The moves by Kalshi arrive as the prediction markets industry is under increasing scrutiny to better regulate insider trading. Currently, the industry isn’t beholden to the same protocols as traditional markets though some politicians are aiming to change that.

    CFTC Chimes In

    The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Division of Enforcement issued an advisory, noting that while Kalshi handled the MrBeast and Langford cases internally, the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) grants the division authority to get involved if it sees fit.

    “In appropriate cases, the Division will investigate and prosecute violations, as it always has with respect to conduct occurring on designated contract markets (DCMs),” notes the division. “The Division continues to coordinate with DCMs regarding their enforcement dockets and referral of appropriate potential violations to the Division for investigation.”

    The CFTC is the federal regulator of prediction markets.

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    Todd Shriber

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  • How AOC’s presidential odds stand after Munich appearances

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    New York’s Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez’s highest‑profile outing on the world stage yet at the Munich Security Conference last week has sharpened speculation about her long‑term political ambitions.

    Newsweek has reached out to Ocasio‑Cortez via email for comment. 

    Why It Matters

    Ocasio‑Cortez’s emergence on an international platform comes as Democrats begin to look beyond President Donald Trump’s time in office and toward a generational reshaping of party leadership. 

    How seriously she is taken as a future contender is increasingly reflected in both betting odds and prediction markets.

    What To Know

    Ocasio‑Cortez’s trip to Germany marked her most prominent international appearance to date, placing the New York congresswoman alongside world leaders and senior policymakers at one of the world’s most closely watched global security forums.

    She has defended the purpose of her trip and rejected suggestions that it was about positioning herself for a White House run.

    But William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, told Newsweek the Munich Security Conference represented a significant step in how her political trajectory is now being viewed.

    “AOC’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference was a notable step, an outing onto the world stage where she received as much attention as some other heads of state,” Kedjanyi said. 

    “While it was not all plain sailing, the fact she was there shows an intention and a seriousness to be at the very least heavily involved in any conversation.”

    Although Ocasio‑Cortez has built her reputation largely through domestic policy battles, the Munich appearance elevated her international profile and placed her within a broader discussion about future Democratic leadership. 

    The visibility alone has contributed to renewed scrutiny of her standing in early 2028 calculations.

    Star Sports currently lists Ocasio‑Cortez at 12/1 to win the 2028 U.S. presidential election, placing her behind Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, but ahead of a wide field of potential contenders. 

    Within the Democratic race, she is priced at 7/1 to secure the party’s nomination, second only to Newsom, the 6/4 favorite.

    “Newsom is very much dominating the betting from the Democrat side, but Ocasio‑Cortez is the only person to get close,” Kedjanyi said. 

    “If she were to express a serious interest in running, I’m sure that those odds would go much shorter than they are now.”

    Kedjanyi also pointed to shifting dynamics on the Democratic left, where Ocasio‑Cortez is widely seen as a natural heir to the progressive movement once led nationally by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

    “There’s no doubt that there is a lot of youth energy behind Ocasio‑Cortez, particularly with Senator Bernie Sanders on the left of the party, perhaps not as prominent as he once was after his two runs for president,” he said. 

    “And despite having perhaps the largest international profile of any Democrats at this moment in time, Newsom does have an open exposed flank on his left.”

    Prediction Markets

    Prediction markets tracking the 2028 Democratic nomination and the presidential race more broadly largely mirror the picture seen in traditional betting, with Newsom consistently positioned as the front-runner and Ocasio‑Cortez grouped among the leading alternatives.

    Kalshi and PolyMarket put her chances of securing the Democratic presidential nominee at 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively, at the time of writing, with Kalshi’s figure rising 3 percentage points since her arrival in Germany on February 12 and PolyMarket’s staying relatively flat.  

    While no sharp post‑Munich surge has been recorded, markets continue to place Ocasio‑Cortez firmly within the top tier of speculative contenders, reflecting her sustained national prominence and the added exposure from her highest‑profile international appearance to date.

    Prediction markets tend to move decisively only after candidates signal formal intent, meaning her position could shift quickly if she were to indicate clearer presidential ambitions.

    What People Are Saying

    William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, said: “It would be no surprise if Ocasio‑Cortez could mount a challenge from the left of the party using its progressive wing.”

    President Donald Trump said of Ocasio‑Cortez following her appearance in Munich: “I watched AOC answering questions in Munich. This was not a good look for the United States.”

    He added in remarks to reporters on Air Force One: “She’s just Trump deranged. She was so deranged. She is an angry woman. But I watched the other two speaking and answering basic questions.

    “I never heard her speak very much, and they started answering questions. She had no idea what was happening. She had no idea how to answer, you know, very important questions concerning the world, but she can’t answer questions concerning New York City, either, because New York City has got some problems.

    Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez said during a Sunday: “Progressive foreign policy has not been represented internationally in a very long time, if not ever, and I felt that it was very important to start bringing that into spaces of power.”

    She added: “I remain ambitious, but my ambitions are in changing our political environment. That’s why I—when I was first elected—my ambition was to change the Democratic Party.”

    New York Democratic strategist Jon Reinish previously told The Hill: “She has flubbed on foreign policy before, in speeches, in interviews, in some pretty high‑profile ways. So it was a bit surprising to me that she put herself in a position to do so again, on an even more high‑profile stage.”

    What Happens Next

    Ocasio‑Cortez has not officially declared any intention to run for president, and the Democratic field remains unsettled with years still to go before formal campaigning begins.

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  • Political Prediction Market ETFs Gain Momentum With Two New Filings

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    Posted on: February 17, 2026, 08:42h. 

    Last updated on: February 18, 2026, 05:50h.

    • Bitwise, GraniteShares throw hats into prediction markets ETF ring
    • Funds appear similar to previously pitched products
    • SEC hasn’t approved these ETFs

    The prediction markets industry is fiercely competitive and the same is true of the race to launch exchange funds (ETFs) tied to political event contracts.

    American Gaming Association prediction markets
    A photograph shows a computer displaying Kalshi odds for the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election on Oct. 13, 2024. Two more ETF issuers filed plans for political prediction market funds. (Image: Getty)

    Just days after Roundhill Investments filed plans with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for ETFs that would hold event contracts based on the 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential elections, rivals Bitwise Investments and GraniteShares followed suit with filings for competing products.

    Under the PredictionShares brand, Bitwise filed for ETFs based on either potential outcome of the 2028 presidential election — Democrat or Republican — as well as four funds based on which party will control the two houses of Congress following the November midterms. The filing for the PredictionShares presidential derivatives ETFs implies the funds won’t be rolled forward after the 2028 election.

    Following the conclusion of the 2028 Presidential Election and the settlement of the Democratic President Contracts pursuant to their terms, the Fund will liquidate its positions, settle any outstanding liabilities and will distribute all remaining assets to holders of Fund Shares,” according to the regulatory document. “To the extent that a member of the Democratic Party is not the winner of the 2028 Presidential Election, the Fund will lose substantially all of its value and such distribution should be expected to be de minimis. Following this distribution, the Fund will wind up its affairs and terminate.”

    It’s possible Bitwise will later alter the structure of the PredictionShares ETFs, assuming they’re approved, to efficiently transition to the next election cycles as Roundhill indicated it would do in its filing with the SEC. The commission hasn’t approved any of the political prediction market ETFs.

    Examining the GraniteShares Filing

    GraniteShares also has its eyes on election-based yes/no event contracts, which are likely to experience surges in volumes as this year’s primary and general election seasons evolve.

    That asset manager wants to bring Democrat and Republican presidential and congressional election ETFs to market. Its filing with the SEC indicates that if its ETFs are approved, they won’t terminate after Election Days 2026 and 2028. Rather, the 2026 House and Senate funds will be reconfigured for the 2028 elections and the presidential ETFs will be altered to hold derivatives based on the 2032 election.

    Regardless of issuer, all of the proposed political prediction markets ETFs tap into the zero sum nature of politics. Translation: The ETFs tied to the losing party will basically be worthless after Election Day. As just one example…

    “The GraniteShares Democratic Senate ETF’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate following the conclusion of the U.S. Senate Elections taking place on November 3, 2026,” according to that issuer’s filing. “IN THE EVENT THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS NOT WON CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE FOLLOWING THE ELECTIONS TAKING PLACE ON NOVEMBER 3, 2026, the Fund will lose substantially all of its value.”

    No Indications About Contract Sources

    As was the case with the Roundhill filing, neither Bitwise nor GraniteShares provided clues as to which exchanges they’ll work with to source political event contracts, though the issuers noted they’ll work with Designated Contract Markets (DCMs).

    Kalshi and Polymarket are the dominant prediction market operators, but by way of owning ForecastEx, Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) is a major player in the political derivatives niche.

    If the ETFs are approved, it’s possible issuers will partner with multiple yes/no exchanges. More details are likely to emerge as the regulatory process moves forward.

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    Todd Shriber

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  • Roundhill Eyes Launches of Political Prediction Market ETFs

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    Posted on: February 14, 2026, 02:52h. 

    Last updated on: February 14, 2026, 02:52h.

    • Fund sponsor files for six ETFs that would track domestic political prediction markets
    • The ETFs haven’t been approved as of yet
    • Roundhill is the company behind a well-known sports betting ETF

    Bettors and traders focusing on political prediction markets could have new tools at their disposal for the 2026 midterm elections if a batch of exchange traded funds (ETFs) proposed by Roundhil Investments are approved.

    politicians stocks
    The US Capitol building. An ETF issuer filed to launch six political prediction markets ETFs. (Image: Getty Images)

    In a Feb. 13 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Roundhill disclosed plans for six ETFs that would hold yes/no contracts tied to US electoral outcomes. Those are ETFs are as follows with proposed tickers in parentheses: Roundhill Democratic President ETF (BLUP), Roundhill Republican President ETF (REDP), Roundhill Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS), Roundhill Republican Senate ETF (REDS), Roundhill Democratic House ETF (BLUH), and the Roundhill Republican House ETF (REDH).

    If the ETFs are approved, it could amount to good timing for Roundhill, because prior to the industry’s embrace of football derivatives, political event contracts were the major drivers of prediction markets activity. With 2026 being an election year, some operators are expecting more of the same and increases in election-related volume.

    The asset manager’s SEC filing doesn’t mention specific prediction markets from which it will source contracts, but it does note it will work with Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), which is the designation necessary for companies to offer exchange-listed derivatives, including yes/no event contracts, in the US.

    How Political Prediction Market ETFs Will Work

    Examining the plumbing on the BLUP and REDP ETFs, should they come to market, one of those funds will essentially be worthless after the 2028 presidential race is decided, but those ETFs won’t go away after Election Day.

    Instead, following a determination that the outcome of the 2028 Presidential Election has been decided, the Fund will recognize the gain or loss associated with its Democratic President Contracts tied to the 2028 Presidential Election and will invest in event contracts that settle to $1.00 in the event that the winner of the U.S. Presidential Election taking place on November 2, 2032, is a member of the Democratic Party,” according to regulatory filing. “The Fund will make the determination that the 2028 Presidential Election has been decided.”

    As for the Senate ETFs, BLUS and REDS, those funds will hold event contracts tied to the parties’ odds of controlling the upper chamber after the 2026 midterms. So if the Republicans maintain their current majority, BLUS “will lose substantially all of its value,” according to the Roundhill filing. The same would be true of REDS if the Democrats gain control of the Senate.

    The House ETFs, BLUH and REDH, will function in similar fashion and like the presidential ETFs, the House and Senate ETFs won’t fold after the 2026 midterms. Rather, the funds will be reorganized into 2028 election products.

    Roundhill Familiar to Bettors, Investors

    Plenty of gaming investors are familiar with Roundhill because it’s the issuer of the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (NYSE: BETZ) — the first ETF dedicated to online casino and sportsbook operators.

    That fund, which turns six years old in June, tracks the Morningstar Sports Betting & iGaming Select Index and holds shares of well-known gaming companies, including FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG).

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    Todd Shriber

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  • Kalshi App Gains Ground on Sportsbooks Before Super Bowl

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    A newcomer to the sports betting scene has jumped into the limelight right before the year’s biggest game. Kalshi, a small-time player next to big-name sportsbooks, saw a big jump in people downloading its mobile app in January. It was ahead of well-known brands like DraftKings and FanDuel as the Super Bowl got closer.

    Kalshi Outpaces Sportsbook Giants in January Download Race

    Based on numbers from Apptopia, an app analytics company, Kalshi’s app saw over 3 million downloads in the US last month. This number tops the combined January downloads of DraftKings and FanDuel, reaching a growth level neither traditional sportsbook has ever hit in one month. Just a few months before, when the NFL season kicked off in August, Kalshi’s downloads were much lower than those of its rivals, reported Bloomberg.

    The surge’s timing stands out. Sports betting interest hits its peak during football season, with the Super Bowl as the main event. Industry projections indicate that traditional sportsbooks will handle a record $1.76 billion in bets on this year’s championship game between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. Prediction markets, though, are growing even quicker. H2 Gambling Capital experts expect platforms like Kalshi to draw about $630 million in Super Bowl-related trading, making up most of the year-over-year growth linked to the event.

    Kalshi’s Exchange-Style Betting Tests the Boundaries of US Gambling Rules

    Kalshi’s quick rise has a strong connection to its regulatory position. Unlike sportsbooks, which must deal with different gambling laws in each state, Kalshi works under federal supervision from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Its contracts are seen as financial tools instead of bets, letting the platform offer sports-related markets across the country, even in states where you cannot bet on sports on your phone. However, Apptopia data shows the app is popular in all states, which means users pick it because they like how it works, not just to get around local rules.

    The platform works differently from sportsbooks. Rather than betting against users, Kalshi pairs them up and takes a cut of each transaction. This marketplace approach has allowed it to expand into non-sports areas like elections and economic data, though sports markets have seen the most action since football kicked off.

    The company’s growth has hit some snags. A number of state regulators have tried to limit Kalshi’s sports offerings, with legal battles still going on in places like Massachusetts. Meanwhile, the NFL has stopped prediction market firms from running ads during the Super Bowl, pointing to worries about fair play and partnership rules.Big betting companies are paying attention. DraftKings and FanDuel have rolled out their own apps for making predictions in some states, but so far, not many people have downloaded them.

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    Silvia Pavlof

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  • NFL Bans Super Bowl Ads for Prediction Markets • This Week in Gambling

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    The NFL has established a firm boundary regarding Super Bowl ads for its upcoming championship game by prohibiting advertisements for prediction markets. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has publicly supported this decision, characterizing the league’s stance as a victory for the integrity of professional sports over potential advertising revenue.

    Christie, who currently serves as a strategic advisor for the American Gaming Association, spoke with iGaming Business about the league’s decision to exclude certain platforms from its broadcast. He argued that the NFL is demonstrating a commitment to regulated markets that offer fan protections. According to Christie, the decision shows the league believes the integrity of the game and the safety of its audience are more important than the financial gains associated with these commercials.

    The ban specifically targets prediction markets, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of various events, including sports. While traditional sportsbooks are permitted to air a limited number of Super Bowl ads under strict league guidelines, prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have been added to a prohibited category list that also includes tobacco and adult content.

    The league has expressed concerns that these platforms often operate outside the oversight of state regulatory authorities. NFL officials have noted that prediction markets lack the same level of integrity monitoring and safeguards found in the licensed sports betting industry. Christie echoed these sentiments, suggesting that unregulated markets create opportunities for corruption and insider trading. He specifically pointed to contracts involving student athletes and the transfer portal as high risk areas for manipulation.

    As the former governor who led the legal battle to overturn the federal ban on sports betting, Christie remains a vocal advocate for state level regulation. He argues that the existing system of state licenses and league cooperation is the only effective way to detect irregular activity and protect consumers.

    While prediction markets are seeing rapid growth and attracting significant investment, they continue to face a challenging legal landscape. Several states have already issued cease and desist orders against these platforms. Christie expects the conflict between state regulators and federal oversight of these markets to eventually reach the Supreme Court. For now, the absence of these companies from the lineup of Super Bowl ads marks a significant moment in the ongoing debate over the future of sports wagering in the United States.

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  • NFL Won’t Allow Prediction Market Ads During Super Bowl

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    Posted on: January 29, 2026, 07:48h. 

    Last updated on: January 29, 2026, 07:48h.

    • League adds prediction markets to list of prohibited advertisers
    • DraftKings, FanDuel will still run sportsbook ads

    Fans of Super Bowl commercials shouldn’t expect to see advertisements from Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction markets during the big game because the NFL isn’t allowing it.

    The NFL logo. Prediction market companies are reportedly banned from advertising during the Super Bowl. from (Image: Shutterstock)

    Several media reports surfaced earlier Thursday indicating the league added prediction markets to its prohibited advertisers list, a group that’s rumored to include industries such adult entertainment, firearms makes, and tobacco.

    While NFL games have been important drivers of increased volume across prediction markets, the league itself has taken a hard line against sports event contracts, saying those derivatives are unregulated gambling that threatens league and game integrity. The league has gone so far as to ban players and staff from participating in prediction markets.

    That’s a departure from the NHL and Major League Soccer (MLS), both of which are embracing prediction markets. The NHL has agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket. Earlier this week, MLS announced a marketing accord with Polymarket.

    Familiar Betting Names Still Running Super Bowl Ads

    While Kalshi, Polymarket, and friends won’t be running Super Bowl spots, their sportsbook rivals, several of which are in event contracts space, will.

    For example, Fanatics Sportsbook is already generating buzz with a campaign poking fun at the Kendall Jenner “curse.” FanDuel and DraftKings, the two largest US online sportsbooks and recent entrants to the prediction markets industry, are expected to run Super Bowl ads tied to their sports betting operations. FanDuel, a unit of Flutter Entertainment, will reportedly run a pregame spot.

    For now, the list of Super Bowl advertisers doesn’t include other gaming companies, but it is chock full of familiar faces such as Budweiser, Google, Instacart, Pepsi, Toyota, Uber Eats, Wegovy, and Wix, among many others.

    Prediction Markets Saving Money by Not Running Super Bowl Ads

    If there’s a silver lining for prediction market operators in the NFL advertising ban, it’s that those companies — some of which are well-heeled startups — will save some cash. The Super Bowl has long been prime time to roll out new ad campaigns and pricing reflects that status.

    Reports suggest 30-second spots for the big game, which will air on NBC on Feb. 8, are selling for $8 million to $10 million. At the high end of that range, advertisers are paying a staggering $243,000 per second for exposure.

    Talk about inflation: A 30-second ad during the first edition of the Super Bowl cost just $37,500. If the $10 million figure is accurate, that means the cost has nearly doubled in a decade.

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    Todd Shriber

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  • Leading Operators Consider Super Bowl Prediction Parlays

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    US gaming operators are weighing whether to launch new parlay-style products within the growing prediction markets segment. This development could reshape how fans engage with the Super Bowl. However, operators remain wary of potential regulatory scrutiny and must weigh whether the engagement boost is worth potential risks.

    Parlays Offer New Engagement Opportunities

    FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions both appear poised to offer multi-leg football contracts pitched as “combos.” This development comes shortly after their exchange partner, CME Group, self-certified a new multi-leg football contract with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The filing clears the way for bundled outcomes tied to the Super Bowl, provided the regulator raises no objections.

    CME operates as a designated contract market where customers access contracts through brokers. FanDuel Predicts functions as a futures commission merchant, while DraftKings Predictions operates as an introducing broker. The two platforms currently allow users to trade single-outcome contracts on sports events. Introducing multi-leg offerings will represent a significant expansion opportunity.

    Parlays have been a longtime staple of traditional sportsbooks. They enable users to combine multiple game results into a single bet with a higher potential payout. However, converting that idea to prediction markets poses several difficulties. While sportsbooks price parlays internally, prediction platforms must rely on supply and demand, adding significant complexity to combo contracts.

    Implementation Poses Unique Challenges

    It is unclear whether users can create their own parlays or whether the exchange will provide only pre-made options. The user-created option could present significant liquidity challenges. Kalshi has resolved this issue through its request-for-quotes system that allows institutional market makers to respond after a trader creates a custom contract.

    This move aligns with a broader market push for multi-leg event contracts. Robinhood recently expanded its offerings with Kalshi’s parlay-style products, demonstrating that mainstream audiences are ready for more complex prediction tools. However, Flutter Entertainment remains cautious. CEO Peter Jackson previously suggested that FanDuel prediction market parlays could come sometime in 2026, hinting at a measured rollout.

    With fan excitement around the Super Bowl skyrocketing, operators have a limited time to gauge demand, test their infrastructure, and weigh regulatory risks. The launch of Super Bowl multi-leg event contracts could further blur the line between sportsbooks and prediction markets. However, such a move could also invite increased controversy, especially as platforms like Kalshi face escalating legal challenges.

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    Deyan Dimitrov

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  • Super Bowl Parlays Heading to DraftKings, FanDuel Prediction Markets

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    Posted on: January 28, 2026, 08:11h. 

    Last updated on: January 28, 2026, 08:11h.

    • CME self-certifies multi-leg bets in CFTC filing
    • The exchange operator is FanDuel’s prediction markets partner
    • It’s also one of the exchanges to which DraftKings Predictions connects

    Super Bowl combos — prediction market nomenclature for parlays — could be available on the event contracts platforms operated by DraftKings and FanDuel as soon as tomorrow.

    CME
    The CME Group logo. The exchange operator filed to bring Super Bowl parlays to the DraftKings and FanDuel prediction market platforms. (Image: CME Group)

    That after CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) self-certified multi-leg Super Bowl event derivatives in a new filing with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) –– the federal regulator overseeing prediction markets in the US.

    CME’s filing with the CFTC also indicates plans for NHL point spreads, event contracts on the upcoming Winter Olympics, and the Grammy Awards. Other prediction market operators have leaned on self-certification to bring football parlays to market.

    Under that process, a prediction market or exchange operator in the case of CME alerts the CFTC to its plans to bring new contracts to market. Those filings include a date on which the company intends to offer the derivatives. If the commission doesn’t respond before that date, those new event contracts are made available to customers.

    Super Bowl Could Be Big for Prediction Markets

    Some analysts are forecasting a modest downturn in overall Super Bowl wagering while acknowledging some of the pressure on traditional sportsbooks comes by way of prediction markets. Slated for Sunday, Feb. 8, Super Bowl LX marks the first edition of the big game where event contract platforms will feature broad sports menus, including parlays.

    The Super Bowl could also be an important test and client acquisition tool for DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts, both of which are new to prediction markets arena. DraftKings launched its event contracts platform in 38 states last month, but sports event contracts aren’t available in all of those jurisdictions, but those derivatives are available in California, Texas, Florida, and Georgia – states long coveted by sportsbook operators.

    FanDuel Predicts, the prediction market platform of CME Group and the sportsbook giant, debuted in five states last month and is now available in all 50. The app, which is separate from the standard FanDuel sportsbook app, features sports event contracts in just 18 states. California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas are part of that group.

    FanDuel, a unit of Flutter Entertainment, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange owner CME Group announced their partnership last August.

    CME Tapping Into Hockey Event Contracts

    While the NHL trails the NFL, NBA, and Major League Baseball in terms of betting handle, the top pro hockey league was the first of its counterparts to widely embrace prediction markets, inking deals with Kalshi and Polymarket.

    Whether or not that stokes increased interest among prediction markets bettors and traders remains to be seen, but CME is rolling the dice. The exchange operator is also attempting to self-certify derivatives on Olympic hockey games and medal counts, indicating those are the only Olympic events it will feature on the DraftKings and FanDuel platforms.

    As for the Grammy contracts, those are as follows: Album, record, and song of the year and best new artist.

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    Todd Shriber

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  • Aloha May Mean Goodbye for Prediction Markets in Hawaii

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    Posted on: January 27, 2026, 08:26h. 

    Last updated on: January 27, 2026, 08:26h.

    • Hawaii Democrats introduce bill to ban prediction markets in the state
    • Ban would apply to broad swath of event contracts, extending beyond sports
    • State has long been averse to gaming expansion

    Hawaii lawmakers want to wave “aloha” — the goodbye varietal — to prediction markets.

    Hawaii casinos gambling tourism gaming
    An aerial view of Honolulu, Hawaii’s capital and largest city. Lawmakers there proposed a bill to ban prediction markets. (Image: Shutterstock)

    Democrats there introduced House Bill 2198 – legislation that if enacted into law would ban a broad swath of event contracts, extending well beyond the sports derivatives that have brought the prediction markets industry into the mainstream.

    The legislature finds that recent developments in the consumer-focused sector of the financial market have allowed for individuals to create financial incentives and motivations for the occurrence of events involving athletics, politics, catastrophe, and death,” according to text of the bill.

    Included in the bill are comments on event contracts violating various “moral and ethical standards” and the view that prediction market operators are exploiting loopholes in Hawaii’s famously stringent gaming laws. That state and Utah are the only two in the nation where no forms betting are legal, not even a state lottery.

    Hawaii Taking Aim at Prediction Markets

    While far removed from the mainland, Hawaii is joining a growing list of states of states applying scrutiny and legal pressure to prediction market operators.

    Many of those are jurisdictions in which sports betting is legal with regulators in those states asserting prediction market operators are skirting state gaming laws. That’s not the case in Hawaii, but supporters of HB 2198 want to modernize the state’s anti-gaming law to include event contracts.

    “Accordingly, the purpose of this Act is to update Hawaii’s gambling laws to expressly prohibit prediction event contracts relating to sports, contests, people, politics, catastrophe, and death,” according to the legislation.

    Currently, prediction markets are legal in Hawaii because the industry is relying on the assertion that it’s beholden to federal, not state regulators. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets, but given the recent spate of state legal wins against event contract companies, those firms may not be able to continue depending on their status as federally regulated entities.

    Hawaii Wants to Amend Definition of Gambling

    Hawaii, which has a history of considering gaming expansion only to ultimately reject it, could revise its current law’s definition of gambling in an effort to prohibit prediction markets from doing business there.

    HB 2198 indicates that a person is gambling if they’re staking something of value on the outcome of an event they cannot control. The legislation makes clear that futures contracts aren’t gambling, but the lawmakers aren’t lumping event contracts in with traditional financial derivatives.

    Supports of the bill want Hawaii’s gaming laws to reflect that financial products contingent upon the outcomes of future events include sporting events, political races, natural disasters, and deaths — all things available on prediction markets to wager on.

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    Todd Shriber

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  • Major League Soccer Inks Deal With Prediction Giant Polymarket

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    Posted on: January 26, 2026, 03:30h. 

    Last updated on: January 26, 2026, 03:32h.

    • New deal sees Polymarket become official prediction market partner of MLS
    • Polymarket has similar deals with UFC and NHL
    • MLS season starts Feb. 22

    Soccer United Marketing, the commercial arm of Major League Soccer (MLS), has teamed up with Polymarket in a multi-year deal, meaning soccer fans can now bet on outcomes.

    Lionel Messi of Inter Miami CF celebrates after winning and becoming champions following the Audi 2025 MLS Cup Final match between Miami and Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Chase Stadium last December in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. (Image: Rich Storry/Getty Images)

    In a statement, MLS announced that Polymarket is an official partner of MLS and an official partner of Leagues Cup in the United States. Polymarket will now serve as the official and exclusive prediction market partner of MLS, MLS All-Star Game, MLS Cup and Leagues Cup.

    More Engagement for Fans

    Both sides are going to work together to tap into fan sentiment around key moments during MLS matches, including building new experiences across MLS digital platforms allowing fans to engage more, while tapping into the burgeoning popularity of prediction markets.

    Last November, TKO, the company behind UFC and Zuffa Boxing, announced a similar deal with Polymarket, and Saturday night during UFC 324 in Las Vegas, that partnership was on display. 

    Prediction Markets: Multi-Year Deal

    Those tuned into the broadcast on Paramount+ saw a big Polymarket presence, including seeing their television screen split during key moments of the Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje interim lightweight title bout, for example, with huge fluctuations in share prices of outcomes of the bout. Pimblett came into the Octagon as the favourite, then Gaethje took over the five-round fight, with devastating punches, bloodying up Pimblett and eventually winning in a unanimous decision. Pimblett even walked into the Octagon before the fighter introductions wearing a diamond Polymarket necklace.

    Polymarket also has a partnership with the NHL, announced last October. No partnerships yet with NFL, MLB or NBA.

    As soccer’s audience continues to grow and evolve in the U.S., fans are looking for new ways to engage more deeply with the game,” said Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket. “Through our partnership with MLS and Leagues Cup, we can surface real-time collective sentiment around key moments, matches, and season-long storylines, giving fans a more interactive, data-driven way to experience the game and engage with the world’s most popular sport.”

    Guardrails to Protect Integrity of the Sport

    MLS said in a statement today that there will be safeguards in place to protect the integrity of league matches, including independent monitoring or trading activities. 

    “As MLS continues to grow, innovation remains central to how we engage fans and evolve the league,” said Gary Stevenson, MLS Deputy Commissioner and President of Soccer United Marketing. “Partnering with Polymarket allows us to integrate prediction markets as a new fan engagement format and position MLS as an early leader among global soccer properties.”

    The new MLS season gets started on Feb. 22.

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    Mark Keast

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  • NCAA Calls for Federal Halt on College Sports Betting Markets

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    The NCAA has stepped up its fight against new betting platforms, asking federal regulators to stop trading linked to college sports until stricter national rules are in place. 

    NCAA Warns Prediction Markets Endanger Student-Athletes

    This request, made official in a letter this week to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) head Michael S. Selig, shows increasing worry about the quick growth of finance-like betting on college sports and how it affects student-athletes.

    In the letter, NCAA president Charlie Baker cautioned that unchecked trading on college competition outcomes looks more and more like sports betting and puts athletes at risk. These risks include harassment, match fixing, and pressure to share inside information. Baker repeated that the organization views athlete safety and fair play as its top concerns. He argued that the current setup lacks key parts to protect both groups.

    Baker’s worries go beyond simple oversight. He pointed out that prediction market companies often let people join at 18 — three years younger than most states allow for regulated sports betting. This puts college students right in the crosshairs for behavior that could harm them. Baker also stressed the need to set clearer limits on ads. He noted that some students might mistake prediction contracts for real investment products instead of bets based on risk.

    NCAA Presses for Suspension of Prediction Markets Until Stronger Rules Arrive

    Tracking players was another key point in the NCAA’s case. Some platforms use tracking services, but Baker said they need more thorough monitoring. This includes location data and having to report any fishy activity, which is common in legal sportsbooks but missing from prediction markets. He also criticized how operators do not have to work with national governing bodies. He used Kalshi’s recent attempts to get approval for markets linked to transfer portal decisions as an example of why closer oversight matters.

    In his speech at the NCAA convention, Baker said prediction markets were offering unregulated betting dressed up as financial trading. He pointed out the NCAA’s recent success in getting states to limit prop bets involving college athletes. He called for similar action at the federal level to stop similar markets from popping up under CFTC oversight.

    The argument has heated up as prediction markets spread across the country. Unlike regular sportsbooks, which must follow state-by-state rules, CFTC-regulated platforms can work in all 50 states and approve new offerings on their own without prior permission. At the same time, gaming industry groups and several state attorneys general have asked Congress and the courts to step in. They claim that the current system bypasses state laws and puts consumers at serious risk.

    Baker said the NCAA is ready to team up with federal officials to build a safer system. However, he stressed that trading should stop until they put meaningful changes in place.

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    Silvia Pavlof

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  • States Push to Keep Sports Betting Under Control Amid Prediction Market Expansion

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    Nevada Attorney General Aaron D. Ford announced that he helped lead a coalition of 37 states and the District of Columbia in submitting an amicus brief to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, supporting states’ long-established power to regulate sports betting within their borders.

    Dozens of States Submit a Brief in Support of Internal Sports Betting Regulation

    The core issue in the appeal is whether a federally regulated event-contracts platform can offer “sports event contracts” (essentially yes/no outcome contracts) that effectively function like sports betting, while avoiding state licensing, taxes, and responsible-gambling rules. This directly challenges prediction markets such as Kalshi, which assert they can operate nationwide because they are officially registered in the US as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

    It’s interesting to note that the Trump family has ties to the two largest prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket. The latter, in particular, is planning a return to the United States after the company recently received a go-ahead from the CFTC.

    Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction markets assert that their platforms are financial trading, not gambling. They argue that prediction markets function like a derivatives exchange where users trade contracts that pay out based on event outcomes. The company has been doubling down on its mission, as recently, Kalshi set up a research team that aims to give a better understanding of forecasting through market data.

    However, states maintain that the federal framework governing derivatives markets was never intended to bypass state gambling laws. Allowing it to do so would create a regulatory loophole, potentially letting sports betting products expand without the licensing and consumer-protection safeguards that states have established through years of regulated wagering, the states argue.

    Nevada Attorney General Doesn’t Budge

    In a press release, Nevada Attorney General Ford said that the state is widely recognized as the foundational home of sports wagering. States, not federal financial regulators, have decades of experience safeguarding consumers, maintaining the integrity of sporting events, and addressing issues like underage gambling, he explained.

    Ford added that he is proud to lead this effort alongside a bipartisan coalition of states to emphasize that Congress did not quietly strip states of their authority to regulate sports betting. He further explained that permitting unregulated betting nationwide would disrupt that balance without explicit authorization.

    For the time being, the coalition is urging the Fourth Circuit to maintain the current framework. This means that states should continue to license and regulate sports betting, while federal oversight remains focused on its original role of supervising derivatives markets rather than supplanting state gaming authority.

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    Stefan Velikov

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  • Kalshi Faces Rising Risk in Nevada as Court Ruling Clears Way for Enforcement

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    Kalshi’s push to secure a nationwide presence is clashing with Nevada’s historic view of gambling regulation. The ongoing legal tension in the state could soon extend beyond civil litigation. After a federal judge refused to give the prediction market a stay, Kalshi is now facing potential enforcement action in the state, including the risk of criminal liability.

    Kalshi’s Expansion into Sports Riled State Regulators

    The latest ruling dissolved a preliminary injunction that was shielding Kalshi from state regulators. The Nevada Gaming Control Board is now free to act on its prior cease-and-desist order, which accused the company of offering sports products without a state license. According to Nevada law, unlicensed sports betting is a serious offense with steep penalties.

    Kalshi’s legal position rests on its federal registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company insists that its event contracts are financial instruments, not wagers, and are consequently governed by federal commodities law rather than state gaming regulations. This argument was pivotal to Kalshi’s successful forays into political prediction markets ahead of the presidential election.

    However, sports have proven to be a significantly more divisive issue. Many argue that Kalshi, which now offers contracts relating to the NFL, NBA, and college games, looks suspiciously similar to a traditional sportsbook. This pivot has alarmed state regulators, who state that Kalshi’s sports-related offerings directly infringe on local gambling law.

    The Platform Faces Rising Pressure

    Judge Andrew Gordon’s recent ruling made clear he is unconvinced by Kalshi’s reading of federal law. While Gordon acknowledged that the legal questions are complex, he ultimately concluded that Kalshi was unlikely to prevail. That conclusion was enough to deny a stay, leaving the company exposed while it seeks relief from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

    An appellate ruling could take weeks. Meanwhile, Kalshi faces a difficult choice. It could block access to its services in Nevada, similar to Crypto.com, which lost a similar court fight. Alternatively, Kalshi could continue operating and risk enforcement action such as fines, injunctions, and, in extreme cases, criminal charges.

    Kalshi has been vocal against state-by-state shutdowns, arguing that geofencing is costly and potentially inconsistent with CFTC rules. However, other platforms have managed to limit access when necessary, undermining Kalshi’s arguments. Regulators in Ohio, New York, Maryland, and Connecticut have also raised objections to Kalshi’s sports markets, adding to the platform’s legal woes.

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    Deyan Dimitrov

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  • Nevada Federal Ruling Deals Major Blow to Kalshi’s Sports Event Markets

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    Posted on: November 26, 2025, 05:54h. 

    Last updated on: November 26, 2025, 05:54h.

    • Nevada judge rules Kalshi’s sports-event contracts are unlicensed gambling products.
    • Decision weakens federal preemption arguments prediction markets use against states.
    • Sportsbook stocks, including DraftKings, rise as rivals to face stricter scrutiny.

    A federal judge in Las Vegas has ruled, in effect, that Kalshi’s “sports-event” contracts amount to unlicensed gambling – not regulated financial instruments under federal law.

    Kalshi, prediction markets, Nevada ruling, sports betting regulation, CFTC
    Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour addresses Web Summit in Lisbon in November 2021. Yesterday’s ruling in Nevada could prove to be a disaster for his company. (Image: Getty)

    US District Judge Andrew Gordon’s ruling undermines the core assumption of Kalshi’s and similar platforms’ business models: that federal oversight automatically shields them from state gambling laws. Kalshi has presented the same argument in multiple legal battles with state regulators across the US, and so the ruling could ripple far beyond Nevada.

    Shares in US regulated sports betting platforms rose on the news, with DraftKings’ stock climbing by 7.7%.

    What’s an Event Contract?

    Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC because the product it offers, events contracts, are a type of derivative. These contracts allow users to speculate on the outcome of a specific event by placing money on a “yes” or “no” eventuality before expiring.

    Judge Gordon rejected Kalshi’s claim that contracts on sporting outcomes qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which would put them under the jurisdiction of the CFTC and pre-empt state gambling law.

    That interpretation is “strained,” and would, if accepted, effectively convert all sports betting into federally regulated derivatives trading, upending decades of state-level legal gambling frameworks, the judge said.

    Kalshi’s interpretation would require all sports betting across the country to come within the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” rather than state and tribal gaming regulators, wrote the judge. “That interpretation upsets decades of federalism regarding gaming regulation, is contrary to Congress’ intent … and cannot be sustained.”

    And, more bluntly: “Nobody thought sports bets were commodities or excluded commodities or swaps until some brilliant people at Kalshi [did].”

    Kalshi’s Shield Cracks

    The case came about after Nevada sent Kalshi a cease-and-desist letter in March, accusing it of violating state gambling laws and warning that the state could pursue civil or criminal penalties. The company sued Nevada in response, winning a temporary order from Gordon blocking the state from taking action.

    Gordon dissolved the preliminary injunction he granted earlier this year that had protected Kalshi from enforcement by Nevada regulators. Now, with the injunction gone, they are free to act against the prediction platform.

    Things were looking great for Kalshi in October 2024, when a federal court allowed the company to list political event contracts ahead of the presidential election. That indicated federal courts were open to treating at least some prediction markets as lawful derivatives. Suddenly, the ground is far shakier for Kalshi

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    Philip Conneller

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  • Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Makes a Joke About Prediction Markets During Speech

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    A black suit event was recently held at the White House.

    One of the attending guests was the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman.

    A prediction had been running on prediction markets platforms, where people were betting on whether the Crown would wear a black suit.

    Those who put their money on yes could have multiplied their initial bet by almost 17 times, but with a catch – the prince would actually have to be clad in a black suit.

    The Crown Prince didn’t attend the event in a black suit; therefore, those who voted on it have lost their money.

    At the event, the Crown Prince gave a speech.

    During his speech, he mentioned that he had learned of the prediction involving him:

    “Before I came here, someone told me that there are betting sites where you can bet on me wearing a black suit, and if you bet on me, you could get almost 17x. Sorry, you lose the bet. Better luck next time!”

    There were other predictions made about the event, which also involved the Crown Prince, but the fact that he is aware of these markets already points to these markets’ reach and cultural relevance.

    The bets were on whether Trump and the prince would hug, how long the handshake between them would last, and the phrases Trump would reference. Not everyone is happy with those prediction markets, but they are here to stay, and consumers and sports betting operators are embracing them.

    Predictions on Everything

    Recently, prediction markets have started to become more mainstream and have been integrated into popular culture.

    Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been getting referenced more and more often.

    The CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, as a joke, listed several words that had been bet on, which led to outrage by those who had bet against him using the specific turn of phrase.

    In the meantime, prediction markets have been featured in popuplar culture. In their latest season of South Park, they released an episode in September where many parts of the plot revolved around the characters’ fascination with prediction apps.

    Betting on the Future

    Millions of transactions occur on these prediction markets.

    There are constant releases of new prediction markets, which have saturated the internet and increased the competition for Polymarket and Kalshi, the two most popular ones.

    The last recorded notional volume on Polymarket and Kalshi hit $2 billion, which surpassed their last peak in 2024. Similarly, in partnership with Crypto.com, the Trump Media & Technology Group has announced that it’ll be launching its own prediction market called Truth Predict.

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    Tolga Ismetov

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  • AQR Weighs a Move into Sports Betting as Prediction Markets Continue to Expand

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    AQR Capital Management, one of the leading global quantitative hedge funds, is carefully evaluating whether sports betting could be its next frontier. Co-founder and CIO Cliff Asness discussed this possibility during a special 10th anniversary episode of the Odd Lots podcast, noting that the firm is examining what such a move would entail.

    Prediction Markets Are Attracting High-Profile Investors

    While AQR’s plans are still in their infancy, the timing is no coincidence. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have drawn some of the leading names in finance into what many still consider a legal gray area. By packaging sports outcomes as regulated financial contracts, they have created a hybrid marketplace where the boundary between betting and derivatives trading is getting increasingly blurrier.

    Other firms have already ventured into the market. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has pledged up to $2 billion toward Polymarket. Susquehanna International Group has built a dedicated sports unit and is actively making markets on Kalshi. An AQR entry into the market would cement this trend as it seeks to explore a data-rich ecosystem.

    Asness did not disclose whether AQR is considering directional wagering or if it would focus on liquidity provision, an area where quantitative approaches generally excel. However, the CIO indicated that the company sees a connection between its core expertise and the structure of modern sports markets that it can leverage.

    Betting Culture Is Not Without Its Downsides

    Sports analytics are an integral part of AQR’s corporate culture. Asness himself co-wrote a 2018 academic paper that analyzed the most effective goaltender-pulling strategy in hockey. He suggested that such insights reflect the similar behavioral biases AQR studies in equity and futures markets. According to Asness, betting markets have not fully embraced data-driven decision-making, resulting in potential inefficiencies.

    We think that, particularly in the betting markets, people are probably not as rational. So we do believe there might be opportunities there.

    Cliff Asness, AQR Capital Management co-founder and CIO

    However, Asness expressed some skepticism about what he calls the “gamification” of everyday investing. He was concerned that this trend was increasingly often causing retail bettors to wager more than they could afford. Asness further lamented that the rising sports betting culture was causing fans to care less about supporting their teams and more about their prop bets.

    AQR’s decision on whether to enter the market may depend on the regulatory uncertainty hanging over the sector. Prediction platforms argue their contracts fall under federal commodities law, while individual states increasingly challenge that assumption. Meanwhile, the CFTC has declined to take a firm stance, leaving operators to operate in the gray area between financial regulation and gambling law.

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    Deyan Dimitrov

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  • The New Way to Make Money Online? Predict What Words a Person Will Say

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    In the hyper-capitalist world in which we live, it can often feel like anything and everything is at risk of being monetized. NFTs are just code-designated image files that—for whatever reason—are worth millions of dollars. The sharing economy encourages Americans to make money off the things they already own—their houses and cars. The influencer lifestyle lets people use social media to monetize their daily activities via highly curated posts. Now, the users of various prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi appear to be scraping the bottom of the monetization barrel. The newest way to make money online? Predicting the words a person will say.

    Yes, there is apparently a new way to make money online, and it is to accurately predict the words that a person will say during a speech or a live appearance. Bloomberg reports on this terrible/bizzare/hilarious new phenomenon, which it describes as “part of a niche category [of prediction market]” where the “outcome isn’t tied to earnings, price moves or sports games, but to what people say in some public forum.”

    Bloomberg notes a recent example of this involving Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s CEO. During the company’s recent earnings call, Armstrong finished up by uttering a select number of DeFi terms: “I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call,” Armstrong said at the end of the call. “I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3 — to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.”

    Bloomberg notes that, across various prediction market platforms, approximately $84,000 was bet on whether certain words like “stablecoin,” “margin,” and “institution,” would be spoken during the call.

    It’s unclear how widely this sort of thing is happening right now. A recent mention market post on Kalshi, for instance, revolved around whether Taylor Swift would say “Wedding” as part of The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon on October 6. Gizmodo reached out to Coinbase, Kalshi, and Polymarket. A Coinbase spokesperson told Bloomberg that its CEO’s comments were “made in a lighthearted, offhand way, referencing online discussion around the earnings call.”

     

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    Lucas Ropek

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  • US Struggles to Rein In Prediction Markets as State Frustration Mounts

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    The United States is entering uncharted territory as it struggles to resolve the discrepancies surrounding prediction markets. What began as a niche segment of the financial market has now evolved into a multi-billion-dollar sector that is testing the limits of federal oversight and state gambling laws. At the forefront of this dispute is Kalshi, a platform that claims to be a federally regulated exchange rather than a sportsbook despite offering wagers on sporting events nationwide.

    State Regulators Are Fighting Back

    The legal advantage of prediction platforms stems from a simple yet powerful distinction. Such companies operate under the Commodity Exchange Act, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This regulation categorizes the products of platforms like Kalshi as financial derivatives, rather than gambling bets. The distinction allows such companies to operate in all 50 states, even those that ban online sports wagering.

    Kalshi has become the poster child of prediction markets in the US and has leaned heavily into sports markets, introducing contracts on NFL and NHL games. The move has triggered a swift response by state regulators who claim that Kalshi is abusing its CFTC certification to circumvent state gambling bans under the guise of a futures exchange.

    The dispute has already spilled into courts across the USA. After attempts in several jurisdictions to rein in Kalshi’s operations, the company has initiated legal action against the states of Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, and Ohio, in some cases securing preliminary injunctions to keep its services active. Meanwhile, Massachusetts and some Native American tribes in California have seized the initiative, arguing that the platform’s sports contracts constitute unlicensed gambling.

    The CFTC Appears Unwilling to Commit

    According to legal experts, much of the controversy hinges on whether futures trading can legally extend to events such as sporting outcomes. The CFTC has refused to commit to a hard stance, insisting that the matter is up to individual states. However, prediction markets continue to use the federal regulator as a shield, circumventing attempts to hold it accountable under state gambling laws.

    The regulatory vacuum has frustrated state officials. The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board recently warned that prediction platforms directly threaten established gaming systems. Nevada regulators have also taken a strong stand, vowing to scrutinize any operator offering event-based contracts to state residents.

    For the time being, prediction markets like Kalshi continue to expand largely unchecked. The company’s sports contracts now account for over 90% of trading activity, and marketing materials explicitly promote sports wagering options “in all 50 states.” With Donald Trump Jr. holding advisory positions with Kalshi and Polymarket, prediction platforms continue to expand despite the opposition.

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    Deyan Dimitrov

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  • Kalshi Surpasses $1B in Monthly Trading Volume, Establishes Global Dominance

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    Over the past year, prediction markets giant Kalshi has experienced a significant transformation, topping $1 billion in monthly traded volume, firmly establishing itself as the clear leader in the industry.

    Kalshi Establishes Global Prediction Markets Dominance 

    The company reports that newly released data, drawn from publicly available metrics, shows Kalshi now controls 62.2% of the global prediction market volume, a dramatic rise from just 3.1% a year ago. The platform recently exceeded $1 billion in monthly trading volume, a major milestone. This comes despite being limited to US users, which is a constraint that has not prevented it from dominating global activity in the space. A similar pattern emerges in transaction counts, with Kalshi’s share surging from 12.9% to 63.9% over the same 12-month period. 

    The company also reportedly set a single-day record of 588,520 trades during Week 2 of the NFL season. While these props aren’t as comprehensive as those offered by major sports betting platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, they mark the prediction market’s first foray into sports betting beyond its traditional offerings.

    It’s important to note that Kalshi posted these impressive numbers despite the continually uncertain state of prediction markets in the US. We recently reported on a talk between experts discussing how the issue with “swaps” might become another stumbling block in Kalshi’s and other prediction markets operators’ growth in the country.

    How Kalshi Grew So Much?

    Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour credited the company’s success to a consistent focus on creating a product that genuinely connects with users. He highlighted that the results reflect the team’s dedication and effort, explaining that Kalshi’s approach has been to prioritize user experience over chasing metrics, trusting that strong performance would follow organically.

    It’s remarkable to see how fast Kalshi is growing. We’ve been heads down focusing on building a product we love, and we let the score take care of itself. This result is a testament to how good the team at Kalshi is.

    Tarek Mansour. CEO, Kalshi

    Another major reason for Kalshi’s fast growth is the company’s expansion into various spheres, such as cryptocurrency. In May, Kalshi announced a partnership with Solana, a high-performance blockchain platform designed for decentralized applications and cryptocurrencies. By leveraging these ecosystems, Kalshi aims to overcome current limitations in prediction market infrastructure and expand its user base.

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    Stefan Velikov

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