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Tag: prediction market

  • Chris Christie Joins AGA to Fight Prediction Markets

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    Posted on: December 23, 2025, 12:18h. 

    Last updated on: December 22, 2025, 05:21h.

    • Chris Christie has joined the fight against sports prediction markets
    • Christie helped states win the right to legalize sports betting
    • Christie and President Trump are not friends, which could hamper Christie’s CFTC influence

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who championed the fight against the US federal government for states to possess the right to legalize sports betting, has a new target in sports prediction markets.

    Chris Christie prediction markets sports
    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie opines that prediction markets licensed by the CFTC offering sports contracts are breaking the law. Christie recently partnered with the American Gaming Association to fight against predictive market exchanges facilitating events involving sports. (Image: CNBC)

    Christie, a two-term Republican governor in the blue Garden State, helped lead New Jersey’s legal challenge to the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA). The federal law had restricted single-game sports gambling to Nevada.

    After years in court, the US Supreme Court in May 2018 ultimately sided with New Jersey in that PASPA violated anti-commandeering interpretations of the Tenth Amendment. The landmark ruling led to 40 states and Washington, DC, passing sports betting laws.

    Now, Christie is joining the American Gaming Association (AGA), a trade group representing the interests of the commercial and tribal gaming industries, to campaign against the continued rise of sports prediction markets.

    CNBC’s Contessa Brewer, who covers gaming matters for the business news outlet, broke the Christie news last Friday.

    Sports Prediction Markets 

    Prediction markets licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) claim to facilitate the buying and selling of binary markets and yes/no contracts. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket initially focused on the outcome of real-world happenings and events, from the weather to politics, but more recently ventured into sports.

    State attorneys general, gaming regulators, and certain state lawmakers have said the sports prediction markets are nothing more than sports gambling, but Kalshi and the like do not hold sports betting licenses in states where they operate. They’re even operating in states like California and Texas, where sports betting is illegal.

    Several traditional sportsbook giants, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, recently withdrew their AGA memberships to pursue their own prediction markets. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts launched over the past week.

    The AGA is betting on Christie being able to change the narrative.

    They are clearly illegal in the sports gaming space,” Christie told Brewer. “The Supreme Court turned this [sports betting] over to the states. Regulation is very important,” Christie said. “This is not compliant with the law.”

    The CFTC, which administers the Commodity Exchange Act, has allowed its Designated Contract Market (DCM) licensees to offer contracts on sporting outcomes. The CFTC, under the Trump administration, seems unlikely to force prediction markets to cease trading sports contracts. Even the president’s family is prepping a prediction market entry through its media group, and Donald Trump Jr. is a special advisor to Polymarket and Kalshi.

    The Commodity Exchange Act prohibits CFTC licensees from trading contracts involving “gaming” and events “contrary to the public interest” like war, terrorism, and assassination.

    “Just because people brazenly break the law doesn’t mean they should be permitted to do so,” Christie said.

    Sports Integrity in Focus 

    Christie says, unlike legal, regulated sportsbooks, which report suspicious betting activity to state gaming regulators and sports leagues when wagering patterns suggest a game or player could be compromised, predictive markets are like the wild west, where no such monitoring is occurring.

    The things that have happened in the NBA and MLB were discovered because the licensed sportsbooks are partnered with state regulators to look for irregularities. No one is looking for irregularities in sports prediction markets,” Christie said.

    “The CFTC has made it clear they aren’t regulating it with any rigor,” Christie continued. “The CFTC is not doing the job regarding sports, nor do they claim to be doing the job.”  

    Christie will try and help the AGA stress to the CFTC that prediction markets should not be allowed to offer sports contracts. It could be a tall task, as Christie’s relationship with Trump has soured greatly since his 2016 endorsement of the billionaire, something he’s called the “biggest mistake I’ve made in my political career.”

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    Devin O’Connor

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  • Are Prediction Markets Poised to Take Over Sports Betting?

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    Posted on: December 11, 2025, 02:26h. 

    Last updated on: December 10, 2025, 01:54h.

    • Prediction markets continue to be the talk of the legal gaming industry
    • Kalshi and its competitors say state gaming laws don’t apply to prediction markets, including sports event contracts

    No issue facing the legal gaming industry in the United States is more concerning than prediction markets. The divisive online trading exchanges, which facilitate the buying and selling of binary yes/no bets on everything from tomorrow’s weather to whether Ukraine and Russia will reach a peace deal, could soon become a concern for lawmaking and regulatory officials across the pond.

    prediction markets sports Kalshi Polymarket
    Prediction markets rushed onto the US gaming scene in 2025. Will prediction markets, including sports event contracts, be around in 2026? Prediction markets could also expand to additional countries overseas. (Image: Shutterstock)

    Prediction markets like Kalshi, Crypto.com, Polymarket, and Robinhood claim they facilitate derivative trades. With licenses from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the online websites and apps say state gaming laws don’t apply.

    While federal court cases to determine the legitimacy of those claims are ongoing, with Casino.org’s Todd Shriber reporting this week that the odds are good the cases will reach the US Supreme Court, established sports betting operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics are moving forward with their prediction market entries.

    State gaming regulators have warned sportsbooks that prediction markets running sports event contracts are violating sports betting laws and, therefore, must be avoided. But the sportsbook leaders continuing to invest in PM platforms hints that they anticipate the legal outcome to go in the way of the emerging markets.

    The prediction markets have a major supporter in President Donald Trump. The former casino tycoon’s public company, Trump Media & Technology Group, is readying Truth Predict, a prediction market platform to integrate with the president’s Truth Social media platform.  

    Prediction Markets’ Global Reach

    NYC-based Kalshi is the US leader in prediction markets, but Polymarket, a crypto-based PM exchange also based in New York, leads elsewhere. Kalshi is focused on expanding globally, with the firm in October announcing that its liquidity pool spans more than 140 countries.

    While Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia have banned Kalshi, most other countries have not.

    Kalshi is available to users around the world under a global model that supports participation from over 140 countries. This expansion will create a single, unified liquidity pool for prediction markets, a structure that is unique to Kalshi,” the company said.

    “While other platforms operate with fragmented, region-specific markets, Kalshi’s global exchange connects traders worldwide to the same set of events, deepening liquidity and price discovery across every market,” the company added.

    “Prediction markets have always had worldwide relevance. Events don’t stop at borders, and neither does trading on them. Whether it’s elections, central bank decisions, sports, or climate, users across continents can trade directly on the outcomes that shape their world,” Kalshi declared.

    Odds of US Sports Prediction Market Ban

    State regulators, attorneys general, and lawmakers continue to seek ways to force the end of sports prediction markets in their jurisdictions. But with federal law preemption, bettors on Polymarket aren’t overly worried.

    Will sports prediction markets be banned in any US state in 2025?” is one such yes/no contract on Polymarket. The trading suggests a chance of only 22%.

    For the contract to resolve “yes,” the rules state that “sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant, are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide” by Dec. 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

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    Devin O’Connor

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  • Prediction Markets, Sportsbooks Don’t Jibe, Massachusetts Says

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    Posted on: November 13, 2025, 04:28h. 

    Last updated on: November 13, 2025, 04:28h.

    • Sportsbooks in Massachusetts cannot offer prediction market sports contracts in the state
    • DraftKings and FanDuel are launching prediction markets next month

    Following a similar ruling in Nevada, gaming regulators in Massachusetts are telling their licensed sportsbooks to refrain from engaging in prediction markets involving sports contracts.

    prediction markets sports betting Massachusetts
    FanDuel Predicts, a prediction market, is set to launch in December 2025. Gaming regulators in Massachusetts say such online wagering products are prohibited by state law. (Image: FanDuel)

    On Thursday, the Massachusetts Gaming Commission (MGC) warned the state’s seven sportsbook operators that they cannot partner with prediction markets or offer sports-related event contracts within the commonwealth. The MGC letter comes after several licensed sportsbooks in the Bay State revealed their intentions to enter the prediction market space.

    In the event you offer sports-related event contracts in Massachusetts or direct patrons to such event contracts being offered in Massachusetts, the Commission may take steps up to and including revocation of your license. In addition, to the extent any other regulator takes action against your license due to your operation in the prediction market space, such action may inform decisions related to your suitability in Massachusetts,” MGC Executive Director Dean Serpa wrote.

    Massachusetts sports betting license holders include Bally Bet, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, and Penn Sports.

    Prediction Market Crackdown 

    The Massachusetts gaming regulators agree with the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) that prediction markets offering event contracts on sports outcomes constitute sports gambling.

    “Wagering on sporting events in Massachusetts is strictly governed by M.G.L. c. 23N, which defines ‘sports event’ or ‘sporting event’ as ‘a professional sport or athletic event, collegiate sport or athletic event, a collegiate tournament, motor race event, electronic sports event, or other event authorized by the Commission under [Chapter 23N]…’ As such, wagering on sporting events may only be offered on authorized sports wagering platforms licensed by the Commission,” Serpa explained.

    The MGC notice comes only hours after DraftKings and FanDuel exited Nevada’s sports betting industry to focus on their prediction market efforts. FanDuel’s parent, Flutter Entertainment, surrendered its sports wagering license, while DraftKings folded on its pursuit to enter the state.

    Last month, the NGCB concluded that sports event contracts are wagers. The board, often cited as the “gold standard” of gaming regulation, added that most prediction market contracts violate Nevada’s betting laws.

    The Board considers offering sports event contracts, or certain other event contracts, as constituting wagering activity under NRS 463.0193 and 463.01962. Wagering occurs whether the contract is listed on an exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or elsewhere,” the NGCB wrote.

    “Examples of event contracts that the Board specifically considers to be wagering subject to its jurisdiction include event contracts based on the outcome or partial outcome of any sporting or athletic event, or other selected events such as the World Series of Poker, the Oscars, Esports, and political elections (“Sports and Other Event Contracts”),” the notice continued. 

    Boston-Based DraftKings

    For DraftKings, the company that calls Massachusetts’ capital city its headquarters, the MGC notice is of utmost concern. Though the state gaming agency said its directive regarding prediction markets only applies to such operations within the commonwealth, the MGC said it reserves the right to address its licensees operating PMs outside the state in the future.

    The letters do not speak to sports-related event contracts offered outside of Massachusetts or event contracts in general, though the Commission reserves the right to address those topics in the future,” the MGC wrote on its website.

    DraftKings is set to debut DraftKings Predicts next month. FanDuel is, too.

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    Devin O’Connor

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