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Tag: polling

  • Trump’s approval rating changes direction with urban voters

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    President Donald Trump is starting 2026 with a shift in an unlikely corner of the electorate: Americans living in the nation’s largest cities.

    A new Fox News poll—conducted January 23-26 under the joint direction of Democratic pollster Beacon Research and Republican pollster Shaw & Company Research among 1,005 registered voters nationwide—found the president’s job approval rising modestly among urban residents, a group that has been one of his weakest since he returned to office.

    Newsweek contacted the White House for comment via email outside regular business hours. 

    Why It Matters 

    For a Republican president, movement inside the U.S.’s major cities is rare, and even small changes can have disproportionate political consequences

    Urban areas hold dense concentrations of voters, drive statewide outcomes and often shape national political sentiment long before it shows up in election results.

    What To Know

    Trump gained ground with urban voters in the late-January Fox News poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, as approval in cities rose to 40 percent from 34 percent in December, while disapproval fell to 60 percent from 66 percent, according to the Fox News survey’s cross-tabs and top lines.

    Fox News’ end-of-year poll of 1,001 registered voters, conducted December 12-15 by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company, also had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3  percentage points.

    Both polls selected respondents randomly from a national voter file. Interviews were completed through a mix of landlines, cellphones and online survey links texted to a subset of voters.

    Although it is hardly friendly territory for the Republican president, this latest shift in how urban voters approve of how he is doing his job represents a meaningful movement.

    A president who improves from 34 percent to about 40 percent in American cities does not suddenly become competitive in these largely Democratic strongholds, but he becomes harder to defeat statewide.

    Urban softening can also bleed into adjacent suburbs, where political margins are often decisive.

    This month-over-month shift among urban voters came as Trump’s overall approval held at 44 percent nationally in the same Fox News series, underscoring movement inside a key geographic subgroup even as the top line stayed flat.

    Urban voters are one of the core subgroups tracked by Fox News in its national polling, which reports results by area—urban, suburban and rural—when subgroup sample sizes reach at least 100 respondents. 

    Because these area categories are weighted alongside age, race, education and region to reflect the registered voter population, shifts within urban areas can influence the overall approval picture.

    In plain terms: Within a month, more city-dwelling registered voters told Fox News they approved of Trump’s job performance, and fewer said they disapproved. 

    Even with that improvement, however, most urban respondents still gave the president negative marks.

    While Trump is still underwater by a wide margin, a six‑point increase inside such strongly Democratic territory signals that voter attitudes in the country’s biggest population centers may be shifting in tone, if not allegiance.

    Urban voters matter because they anchor Democratic strength. 

    When they budge, even slightly, it often suggests that broader perceptions of presidential performance are settling in—especially among groups that have been highly resistant to Trump since his return to office.

    What People Are Saying

    Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson, said: “The president faces two difficult obstacles—the virtually unanimous and intractable opposition of Democrats and the stubbornness of high prices. Republican officeholders think the economic benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill will kick in later this year, which will be critical for GOP prospects in the midterm elections.”

    White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Newsweek in December: “Over the past year, the Trump administration has delivered critical progress to turn the page on Joe Biden’s economic disaster: cooling inflation, rising real wages, private-sector job growth, and trillions in investments to make and hire in America. The Trump administration will continue to build on this progress in the new year to continue delivering economic relief for the American people.”

    President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on January 22: “Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense. … Something has to be done about Fraudulent Polling.”

    He added: “Isn’t it sad what has happened to American Journalism, but I am going to do everything possible to keep this Polling SCAM from moving forward!”

    What Happens Next

    The question now is whether Trump can build on this movement, or whether it represents a temporary fluctuation within a group that historically has little affinity for him.

    Because both Fox News surveys used identical methods and margins of error, the December‑to‑January comparison is significant. But subgroup margins are always higher, which means future polls must confirm whether Trump truly is gaining ground among city‑based voters or whether these numbers plateau.

    Still, if the trend holds—even modestly—it could matter in tightly contested states where major metro areas dominate the vote count.

    In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At Newsweek, ours is different: The Courageous Center—it’s not “both sides,” it’s sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.

    When you become a Newsweek Member, you support a mission to keep the center strong and vibrant. Members enjoy: Ad-free browsing, exclusive content and editor conversations. Help keep the center courageous. Join today.

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  • OK registration trend continues shift from Dem to GOP, independent

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    An area trend in party affiliation over the past 14 years shows a dramatic shift in registered voters, including an increase in folks voting independent.

    Cherokee County Election Board Secretary Tiffany Rozell shared the data with Tahlequah Daily Press, which shows that over this time span, the number of Republicans increased from 5,833 in 2011 to 12,924 by October 2025. Registered Democrats in 2011 numbered 14,768, and by 2025, the number registered in that party has decreased to 9,313.

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    By Lee Guthrie | lguthrie@tahlequahdailypress.com

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  • OK registration trend continues shift from Dem to GOP, independent

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    An area trend in party affiliation over the past 14 years shows a dramatic shift in registered voters, including an increase in folks voting independent.

    Cherokee County Election Board Secretary Tiffany Rozell shared the data with Tahlequah Daily Press, which shows that over this time span, the number of Republicans increased from 5,833 in 2011 to 12,924 by October 2025. Registered Democrats in 2011 numbered 14,768, and by 2025, the number registered in that party has decreased to 9,313.

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    Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings.

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    By Lee Guthrie | lguthrie@tahlequahdailypress.com

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  • OK registration trend continues shift from Dem to GOP, independent

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    An area trend in party affiliation over the past 14 years shows a dramatic shift in registered voters, including an increase in folks voting independent.

    Cherokee County Election Board Secretary Tiffany Rozell shared the data with Tahlequah Daily Press, which shows that over this time span, the number of Republicans increased from 5,833 in 2011 to 12,924 by October 2025. Registered Democrats in 2011 numbered 14,768, and by 2025, the number registered in that party has decreased to 9,313.

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    Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings.

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    By Lee Guthrie | lguthrie@tahlequahdailypress.com

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  • What the Democrats’ Good Night Means for 2026 and Beyond

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    Election Night 2025 was a good one for Democrats. On Tuesday, the Party recaptured the governorship in Virginia, with the victory of the former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger over the Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, and held the governorship in New Jersey, with the congresswoman Mikie Sherrill’s defeat of Jack Ciattarelli. Both victories had been expected, as was Zohran Mamdani’s defeat of Andrew Cuomo in the New York mayoral election. (Spanberger and Sherrill won by approximately fifteen and thirteen percentage points, respectively; Mamdani appears on track for a high single-digit win.) Democrats also did well lower down the ballot in a number of Virginia races, in state races in Pennsylvania and Georgia, and, notably, in California, where the redistricting referendum led by Gavin Newsom—a response to Texas’s Republican-led effort to create five new G.O.P. House seats—passed overwhelmingly.

    To talk about the election results, and what they portend for next year’s House and Senate races, I spoke by phone with Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why Democrats managed to outperform expectations, the trouble Republicans face without Donald Trump on the ballot, and what the results mean for 2026 and 2028.

    What’s your biggest takeaway from Tuesday’s results?

    It’s a bad night to be a Republican. It’s hard to see what the silver lining is when you have losses all over the place.

    In the past nine months or so, a lot of people have been saying that the Democratic Party’s brand is in the toilet. Democrats are not popular. They seem disliked by much of the country, including a big chunk of their own voters. This is not a good place to be if you’re a Democrat. How much does this really matter if you are the opposition party? How did you see that question before tonight, and do you see it any differently now?

    I have a long-standing belief that elections are referenda on the party in power. My first reaction when I started hearing the argument that Democrats were in trouble was that I had heard the exact same argument in 2010. You may recall that Obama had an entire post-financial-crisis spiel about how the Republicans had driven the car into the ditch and now the Democrats were trying to help it out. It went on for quite some time, but voters didn’t care. They didn’t like Republicans, but they didn’t like what Democrats were doing, either. [Republicans had huge success in the 2010 midterms.] And I think it’s the same story today, with the parties flipped. People’s dislike of some things that Democrats believe and do might be a problem for governing when Democrats win, but I don’t think it’s a problem for elections.

    Trump is not that popular, but he does bring certain benefits to Republicans when he is on the ballot, especially in terms of turnout. In most elections during the Trump era when he has not been on the ballot, Democrats have done well. Broadly speaking, Republicans seem to do quite poorly when he is not on the ballot.

    Yeah, we saw a similar thing with Obama. He was a political force and could turn out all kinds of voters in Presidential elections, but the Democrats would get walloped in the off-year elections. And I think Trump has a similar effect. There are a lot of true Trump voters out there who just aren’t going to show up in the off-year elections. And, meanwhile, Republicans have kind of traded away their big advantage, which was upper-class suburbanites who vote during the off years. Now those people are mostly Democrats.

    When I grew up and was following politics, people often talked about the desire of voters to keep a check on the party in power. So, if you had Republicans in power, you would want to vote for Democrats, and the President’s party would often lose midterm elections. That still seems true, but now the story seems to be about there being different electorates in off-year elections. Has there been a change of some sort?

    I think that, as we’ve become more polarized and there are fewer swing voters, it’s become more about who is voting. It’s less of a persuasion game and more of just a simple turnout game. That’s the beginning and end of it. We are in a highly polarized environment where there just aren’t that many marginal voters, and you don’t really see the types of swings that you would have seen from, say, 1964 to 1980. It’s just harder and harder to persuade people. It’s about getting your voters to the polls, and that’s not a good bargain for Republicans right now.

    The theory of politics you have just described—that it’s more about motivating people than persuasion—is normally viewed more sympathetically by more ideological party members, and less so by centrists. Democrats have been engaging in this debate about whether they need to fire up their own voters or reach out to voters in the center. As someone who’s followed your work closely, I would not think of you as someone who has the perspective that parties just need to fire up their own voters. Have you changed your opinion?

    Generally speaking, Americans still don’t like radical change. They don’t like tariffs being sprung on them willy-nilly. They don’t like some of the things that Democrats in power do. So where moderation, I think, can help is when you’re actually governing. That distinction is what we were talking about a little bit at the beginning—about how it doesn’t matter that you’re unpopular when you’re out of power, but, when it comes to governing and we start talking about the, like, seven or eight per cent that’s persuadable, it could be a problem.

    On Tuesday, two gubernatorial candidates, in Virginia and New Jersey, who are considered more moderate did quite well, and outperformed the polls. In Virginia, they did better than Democrats had done in 2017, during Trump’s first term. And in New Jersey they maybe did a little bit worse, but, at the same time, New Jersey has come much closer to being a purple state in the past decade, or at least it was in the last election. So, do people who are making the case that moderation is crucial for Democrats to win have an argument about these two races?

    Yeah, and I think you summed up the argument there. If you’re looking for a counter on that, it would be the Virginia attorney general’s race, right? That’s where you had, I think, a pretty radical-sounding Democratic candidate. Maybe people rationalized it away, but he ended up running only four points behind Spanberger. And, over all, he will win by about six points, and Spanberger will have won by about fifteen. So I think that actually gives you a pretty good insight into what the universe of persuadable voters was. Twenty years ago in Virginia, a guy who got caught texting the things that the soon-to-be attorney general did would have run much worse. [Jay Jones, the Democrat, fantasized in text messages about shooting a Republican colleague.] So that’s the polarization and the limit on how much radicalism can hurt you in a general election right there.

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    Isaac Chotiner

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  • California officials push back on Trump claim that Prop. 50 vote is a ‘GIANT SCAM’

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    As California voters went to the polls Tuesday to cast their ballot on a measure that could block President Trump’s national agenda, state officials ridiculed his unsubstantiated claims that voting in the largely Democratic state is “rigged.”

    “The Unconstitutional Redistricting Vote in California is a GIANT SCAM in that the entire process, in particular the Voting itself, is RIGGED,” Trump said on Truth Social just minutes after polling stations opened Tuesday across California.

    The president provided no evidence for his allegations.

    “All ‘Mail-In’ Ballots, where the Republicans in that State are ‘Shut Out,’ is under very serious legal and criminal review,” the GOP president wrote. “STAY TUNED!”

    Gov. Gavin Newsom dismissed the president’s claims on X as “the ramblings of an old man that knows he’s about to LOSE.”

    His press office chimed in, too, calling Trump “a totally unserious person spreading false information in a desperate attempt to cope with his failures.”

    National tension is high as voters across California cast ballots on Proposition 50, a Democratic plan championed by Newsom to redraw the state’s congressional districts ahead of the 2026 election to favor the Democratic Party. The measure is intended to offset GOP gerrymandering in red states after Trump pressed Texas to rejigger maps to shore up the GOP’s narrow House majority.

    California’s top elections official, Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber, called Trump’s allegation “another baseless claim.”

    “The bottom line is California elections have been validated by the courts,” Weber said in a statement. “California voters will not be deceived by someone who consistently makes desperate, unsubstantiated attempts to dissuade Americans from participating in our democracy.”

    Weber noted that more than 7 million Californians have already voted and encouraged those who had yet to cast ballots to go to the polls.

    “California voters will not be sidelined from exercising their constitutional right to vote and should not let anyone deter them from exercising that right,” Weber said.

    Of the 7 million Californians who have voted, more than 4.6 million have done so by mail, according to the secretary of state’s office. Los Angeles residents alone have cast more than 788,000 mail-in ballots.

    Trump has long criticized mail-in voting. As more Democrats opted to vote by mail in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, the president repeatedly made unproven claims linking mail in voting with voter fraud. When Trump ultimately lost that election, he blamed expanded mail-in voting.

    Over the last month, the stakes in the California special election have ratcheted up as polls indicate Proposition 50 could pass. More than half of likely California voters said they planned to support the measure, which could allow Democrats to gain up to five House seats.

    Last month, the Justice Department appeared to single out California for particular national scrutiny: It announced it would send federal monitors to polling locations in counties in California as well as New Jersey, another traditionally Democratic state that is conducting nationally significant off-year elections.

    The monitors are set to go to five California counties: Los Angeles, Kern, Riverside, Fresno and Orange.

    This story will be updated.

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    Jenny Jarvie

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  • New Fox News poll shows Jack Ciattarelli down 7 points days before election

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    A new poll from Fox News shows Democratic nominee for New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill up 7 percentage points over Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli five days before Election Day.

    Why It Matters

    The New Jersey gubernatorial election stands as one of the nation’s most closely watched races, with implications for national party strategy and the 2026 midterms.

    The contest could also be viewed as a key litmus test for sentiment toward President Donald Trump in the Northeast and a potential indicator of Republican momentum in traditionally Democratic strongholds.

    New Jersey has not elected a Republican governor since 2013, when the Garden State reelected former Governor Chris Christie, or voted for a Republican in a presidential race since 1988, when it backed former President George H.W. Bush. A shift in voter sentiment could impact both parties’ approaches beyond 2025.

    What To Know

    In the poll released on Thursday, Sherrill has 52 percent of the vote opposed to Ciattarelli’s 45 percent. The poll surveyed 956 likely voters from October 24 to October 28 and has a 3 percent margin of error.

    The poll shows a shift from an earlier survey by Fox News this month that had Sherrill at 50 percent and Ciattarelli with 45 percent.

    Thursday’s poll shows that 64 percent of Sherrill supporters say their vote is to express opposition to Trump, while 35 percent of Ciattarelli supporters say their vote is to express support for the president.

    “It’s a cliché, but it’s true, this race is all about turnout, so the big question is whether Trump supporters show up when he’s not on the ballot,” Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, said in the survey. “Sherrill’s supporters seem like they are going to turn out, but the evidence is mixed for those backing Ciattarelli. If the MAGA base comes around during this final weekend, the Democratic advantage narrows considerably.”

    Sherrill’s favorability is 54 percent in the new poll, compared to 51 percent earlier this month. Ciattarelli’s favorability is 46 percent compared to 48 percent earlier this month.

    What People Are Saying

    Trump, on Truth Social this month: “Why would anyone vote for New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, when they want transgender for everybody, men playing in women’s sports, High Crime, and the most expensive Energy prices almost anywhere in the World? VOTE REPUBLICAN for massive Energy Cost reductions, large scale Tax Cuts, and basic Common Sense! Under President Trump, ME, Gasoline will come down to approximately $2 a Gallon, very soon! With the Democrats, you’ll be paying $4, $5, and $6 a Gallon, and your Electric and other Energy costs will, likewise, SOAR. VOTE REPUBLICAN FOR A GREAT AND VERY AFFORDABLE LIFE. All you’ll get from voting Democrat is unrelentingly High Crime, Energy prices through the roof, men playing in women’s sports, and HEARTACHE!”

    Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek when asked if it is unusual for Trump to play a factor into voters’ decision-making in New Jersey: “It is not unusual. These off-year elections after a presidential election in particular are often at least somewhat a signal of dissatisfaction with the performance of the party in power in the White House. That is why these elections are being looked at closely nationally. They have potential implications for the midterm elections.”

    Ciattarelli, on X Thursday: “After 8 years of Phil Murphy’s failures, New Jersey families are paying the price every single day. Failed schools. Handcuffed police officers. Overdevelopment destroying our communities. Higher taxes crushing working families. And my opponent? Endorsed every. single. one of these disasters. I’m running to make New Jersey affordable again. Safe again. We need police officers who can do their jobs — not politicians tying their hands. We need policies that help families — not hurt them. The choice is clear: more of the same failed policies that got us here, or real change that puts New Jersey families first. What’s it going to be, New Jersey? Make your voice heard. Vote for change! Early voting is open until 8pm tonight, and back again tomorrow at 10am.”

    Sherrill, on X early Thursday: “The difference between me and Jack is clear as day. I’m going to serve YOU while he only cares to serve the president.”

    What Happens Next

    The New Jersey gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 4. Early voting is underway across the state. Both campaigns are focused on boosting turnout among undecided voters, independents and key demographics.

    The outcome will determine not only the successor to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy but may also set the tone for party strategies in the 2026 congressional midterms.

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  • The Midwest has turned on Trump

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    Once the heart of President Donald Trump’s political base, the Midwest — the region he promised to revive with factory jobs and “America First” trade policies — is showing signs of disillusionment.

    The latest TIPP Insights poll, conducted between September 30 and October 2, found Trump’s favorability in the Midwest at 40 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, one of his weakest showings nationwide. The decline is striking given that Trump has long positioned himself as a champion of blue-collar workers and has frequently touted his record of reviving the region’s industrial economy.

    “I think of the Midwest as quintessentially the most ‘purple’ or swingy region in national politics,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek. “With that, it’s not too surprising to me that Trump’s approval there, -9, is roughly in line with where he is nationally.”

    Trump’s highest favorability was recorded in the Northeast (47 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable) — an unexpected result for one of the nation’s most liberal regions. He also performed well in the South (46 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable), where Republican registration remains strong.

    The West was Trump’s least favorable region, with 38 percent viewing him positively and 50 percent negatively.

    Newsweek Photo-Illustration/Getty/Canva/Associated Press

    The Midwest at the Heart of Trump’s 2024 Strategy

    The Midwest was central to Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign. He won eight of the 12 Midwestern states, flipping both Michigan and Wisconsin — two states he had narrowly lost in 2020. In Wisconsin, Trump won 49.6 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris’s 48.7 percent, while in Michigan he became the first Republican to carry the state twice since Ronald Reagan.

    His choice of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate underscored the region’s political importance. Announcing the pick, Trump said Vance “will be strongly focused on … the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond.”

    At the time, Anthony Zurcher, the BBC’s North America correspondent, wrote that “the pick suggests Trump knows this election will be won and lost in a handful of industrial Midwest battleground states.”

    And ahead of that announcement, Angelia Wilson, a politics professor at the University of Manchester, England, told Newsweek: “Any reasonable political strategy points to Vance and the need to ensure a solid win in Ohio and the Rustbelt.”

    Trump’s Midwest Promise

    Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump returned repeatedly to the theme that only he could restore the region’s lost industrial power. In Saginaw, Michigan, he vowed to make the state once again the “car capital of the world,” blasting what he called “energy policies that are stripping jobs” from American workers. “Michigan, more than any other state, has lost 60 percent of your automobile business over the years,” he said.

    In Mosinee, Wisconsin, Trump leaned on trade threats as a key policy tool. Speaking at a rally, he warned of “unprecedented tariffs” against foreign competitors and argued that immigrants were displacing U.S. workers — framing his agenda as a defense of the industrial Midwest, Reuters reported.

    And in one of his most direct economic moves, Trump threatened 200 percent tariffs on John Deere if the agricultural giant shifted production to Mexico, a signal to Midwestern manufacturers that his “America First” stance still applied to them.

    Tariffs, Inflation, and the New Economic Anxiety

    But while Trump’s message of protectionism once resonated deeply across the Midwest, cracks are beginning to show. Many farmers and manufacturers are now feeling the pinch of tariffs that have reduced exports and driven down crop prices.

    “There have been constant headlines of farmers being caught in the middle of Trump’s tariff fights, so that might be an especially salient issue in the Midwest,” Coleman said.

    Trump has dramatically expanded U.S. tariffs since returning to office, marking one of the most sweeping protectionist shifts in decades. In February 2025, he imposed new duties of 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on Chinese imports, citing national security concerns related to drug trafficking and border security, according to a White House fact sheet.

    Two months later, Trump issued Executive Order 14257, known as “Liberation Day,” introducing a 10 percent baseline tariff on nearly all imports and authorizing higher duties — in some cases up to 50 percent — on goods from countries accused of unfair trade practices. The order also revoked the de minimis exemption that had allowed low-value imports to enter the U.S. tariff-free, and expanded tariffs under existing laws such as Section 232 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The measures targeted key industries including autos, steel and aluminum.

    The administration has defended the tariffs as essential to rebuilding American manufacturing and protecting domestic jobs. But economists have warned of steep costs. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated the tariffs could reduce long-run GDP by six percent and lower wages by five percent, costing a typical middle-income household about $22,000 in lifetime income losses. The group also projected that the tariffs could raise between $4.5 and $5.2 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade — gains that could be offset by inflation and supply chain disruptions.

    For farmers, tariffs have been a thorn in their side since 2017, when Trump first imposed tariffs on key trading partners.

    Since then, American farmers have struggled with the loss of China as the top buyer of U.S. soybeans and a major market for corn. Exports of soybeans — America’s largest grain export by value — recently fell to a 20-year low, deepening fears that China may not purchase any U.S. grain this season.

    “With [tariffs] in place, we are not competitive with soybeans from Brazil,” Virginia Houston, director of government affairs at the American Soybean Association, told The Guardian. “No market can match China’s demand for soybeans. Right now, there is a 20 percent retaliatory duty from China.”

    Trump has said little publicly about the impact on farmers, though in August he demanded on Truth Social that China quadruple its soybean purchases. Chinese officials have instead pledged to boost domestic production by 38 percent by 2034, and U.S. farm groups say no new Chinese orders have been placed for the upcoming season.

    Despite the financial pain, many rural voters continue to back Trump, emphasizing that their support isn’t determined by a single issue like tariffs. 

    “Tariffs are probably something that will help in the long run,” Ohio farmer Brian Harbage, told The Guardian, acknowledging current export difficulties and economic uncertainty.

    To ease the strain, the Trump administration included $60 billion in farm subsidies in its latest tax bill, but critics argue the money favors large producers over family farms. Meanwhile, falling commodity prices, smaller cattle herds, and declining ethanol production have further weakened the sector.

    “The farm economy is in a much tougher place than where we were in 2018,” Houston said. “Prices have gone down while inputs – seed, fertilizer, chemicals, land and equipment – continue to go up.”

    Harbage said if Trump visited his farm, his message would be simple: “The exports is number one. That’s the number one fix. We have to get rid of what we’re growing, or we have to be able to use it. China, Mexico and Canada – we export $83 billion worth of commodities to them a year. So if they’re not buying, we’re stuck with our crop.”

    Renewable Energy Rift

    Trump’s opposition to renewable energy subsidies is also creating unease among farmers.

    In Iowa, where nearly two-thirds of electricity comes from wind and more than 50 wind-related companies operate, the end of federal incentives under Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” has thrown the industry into turmoil. The cuts have imperiled $22 billion in wind investments and tens of thousands of jobs tied to wind manufacturing and land leases. Wind farms are the top taxpayer in a third of Iowa’s counties, contributing up to 55 percent of local property taxes and $91.4 million in annual lease payments to farmers, according to Power Up Iowa.

    Farmers and local officials warn that Trump’s policies threaten this economic lifeline. “I don’t know how anybody in good faith could vote against alternative energy if they’re elected by the people in Iowa,” Fort Madison Mayor Matt Mohrfeld, told Politico, calling the cuts “a crucial mistake.”

    Republicans argue that wind and solar are now “mature industries” that no longer need government help. But clean energy developers and local leaders say the rollback is already causing uncertainty, job losses, and halted projects — including the shutdown of Iowa wind manufacturer TPI Composites, which cited “industry-wide pressures” after losing federal support.

    Trump Energy Secretary Chris Wright has argued that heavy federal government spending on renewable energy is “nonsensical.”

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  • Democrats’ chances of flipping Virginia governor’s seat: Poll

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    Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears trails Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger by 10 points in the race for the gubernatorial seat in Virginia, a new poll from Emerson College shows on Thursday.

    Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email for additional comment.

    Why It Matters

    The 2025 Virginia governor’s race offers a pivotal test for both parties ahead of next year’s midterms. Virginia, which has trended Democratic in recent presidential elections, saw Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin secure a narrow victory in 2021, signaling the state’s battleground status. How Democrats fare in efforts to reclaim the governor’s office could preview a national pattern and influence party strategies as the GOP strives to maintain control of the House and Senate while Democrats push for significant gains after a disappointing 2024.

    What To Know

    In the poll, Earle-Sears received 42 percent of the vote compared to Spanberger’s 52 percent. In a January survey by the pollster, the lieutenant governor garnered 41 percent and the former congresswoman won 42 percent, a noticeable swing in favor of Democrats.

    The poll surveyed 725 likely Virginia voters on September 28 to September 29 and has a 3.6 percent margin of error.

    According to an A2 Insights poll conducted from September 26 to September 28, Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), the closest showing between the two in months.

    The Emerson College poll also shows Spanberger with a 51 percent favorability rating versus a 38 percent unfavorable rating. Earle-Sears landed a 42 percent favorability score compared to a 44 percent unfavorable mark.

    What People Are Saying

    Spanberger, on X Thursday: “Virginians are already facing rising costs, and now — due to Trump’s government shutdown — 300,000+ Virginians may lose their paychecks. Now more than ever, Virginians deserve a Governor who will stand up for their jobs and lower costs — not one who only puts the President first.”

    Earle-Sears, on X Wednesday: “Abigail Spanberger is extreme—on the border, on sanctuary for violent illegals, on letting men into girls’ locker rooms. Every position she takes puts Virginians in harm’s way.”

    Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email: “This would be a big reversal and loss for the Republicans. Youngkin’s victory four years ago was a similar loss for the Democrats. The current lead bodes well for the Democrats in November. It may reflect how the loss of the jobs of federal workers who live in Virginia and especially dissatisfaction with Trump’s actions and policies more broadly may have serious repercussions for Republicans in the governor’s race—and for Republicans in Virginia in 2026.”

    What Happens Next

    The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election is set for November 4. Amid the tightening of poll margins and fluctuating voter sentiment, both candidates will intensify their campaigns as Election Day nears. Continued polling and shifts in campaign strategy may further influence the race’s trajectory.

    Update 10/2/25, 11:51 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Shapiro.

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  • King Charles’ Monarchy hits “lowest” popularity since “records began”

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    King Charles III’s monarchy is in its deepest popularity slump ever recorded by a major research charity in 42 years of polling—eclipsing the downturn of the Princess Diana era.

    In 1983, 86 percent of U.K. adults thought the royal family were important compared to 51 percent in 2024, according to the British Social Attitudes survey released by the National Centre for Social Research on Thursday.

    At the same time, support for abolishing the Monarchy has risen from 3 percent to 15 percent during that time. Those who felt it was unimportant but who stopped short of backing abolition rose from 10 percent in 1983 to 31 percent in 2024.

    Newsweek has contacted Buckingham Palace. The royals never comment on polling as a matter of policy.

    King Charles III attends the Braemar Royal Highland Gathering at The Princess Royal and Duke of Fife Memorial Park, in Scotland, on September 6, 2025.

    Max Mumby/Indigo/Getty Images

    Alex Scholes, research director at the National Centre for Social Research, said in a statement: “British Social Attitudes has been tracking views on the monarchy for over 40 years, and the latest data show just how much opinion has shifted.

    “Support for the monarchy is now at its lowest level since our records began, with more people than ever questioning its future.”

    There is stark data showing a collapse among diehard monarchists, with 64.6 percent saying it was “very important” to continue having a monarchy in 1983 compared to 24.1 percent in 2024, another record low. The previous low, of 27.1 percent, was recorded in 2006—the year the Operation Paget report, a criminal investigation on conspiracy theories surrounding Princess Diana’s death, was released.

    A further 26.7 percent felt it was “quite important” while 20 percent said “not very important” and 11.2 percent went for “not important at all.” An additional 15 percent wanted to to scrap it altogether.

    “When asked to choose directly, a majority of the public still prefer to keep the monarchy over moving to an elected head of state,” Scholes added.

    “This tension, between declining importance and continued preference, will be crucial in shaping debates about the monarchy’s role in the years ahead.”

    Interestingly, when the pollsters gave respondents fewer options, support for abolishing the monarchy more than doubled.

    Asked simply “do you think the U.K. should continue to have a monarchy, or should it have an elected head of state instead?” 58 percent said they wanted to keep the royals but 38 percent wanted to elect a head of state.

    Among 16-24-year-olds, republicans (67 percent) outnumbered royalists (30 percent) by more than double when the question was phrased that way.

    There have been other dips for the monarchy over the years, including during the era Princess Diana’s messy divorce from Charles and after her death in a 1997 Paris car crash.

    However, even during the 1990s the percentage who felt it was important to continue to have a monarchy did not drop below 60 percent.

    That figure dropped to 59 percent in 2003 but otherwise 2021 and 2023 are the only other years below 60 percent.

    Graham Smith, chief executive of anti-monarchy campaign group Republic, told Newsweek: “The monarchy is in very serious trouble and in my view it’s a matter of when not if it’s abolished.

    “The support has been sustained by elements of nostalgia, conservatism and the Queen [Elizabeth II]. In this age of tumultuous politics, and getting further and further away from the days of deference, and the queen no longer being there, people are rapidly losing interest.

    “At the same time, it’s been rocked by multiple scandals that put it on the wrong side of most people’s values.”

    Do you have a question about King Charles III and Queen Camilla, Prince William and Princess Kate, Meghan Markle and Prince Harry, or their family that you would like our experienced royal correspondents to answer? Email royals@newsweek.com. We’d love to hear from you.

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  • AG certifies record number of ballot questions

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    BOSTON — Plans to bring back rent control to Massachusetts, roll back the state’s personal income tax, repeal the MBTA Communities Act, ditch the state’s gas tax and require voters to show ID to cast ballots are among a record number of proposed referendums inching toward the 2026 ballot.

    On Wednesday, Attorney General Andrea Campbell certified 44 proposed initiatives filed by individuals and groups seeking voter approval for changes in state law.


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    By Christian M. Wade | Statehouse Reporter

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  • Mass. voters flock to polls ahead of election

    Mass. voters flock to polls ahead of election

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    BOSTON — Massachusetts voters are flocking to the early polls, and sending and dropping off mail ballots at local election offices ahead of the presidential election Nov. 5.

    Hundreds of thousands have already voted through the mail and during the two-week early voting period that got underway Saturday, according to Secretary of State Bill Galvin’s office, which said it sent more than 1.3 million ballots to registered voters who requested them.

    As of Wednesday, at least 818,904 ballots had been cast, or roughly 16.2% of the state’s 4.9 million registered voters, Galvin’s office said. That included 154,684 in-person early voting ballots.

    Locally, many communities have already seen thousands of votes cast with 13 days until the election. As of Wednesday, voters in Beverly cast nearly 1,100 ballots while North Andover voters had cast 770 ballots, according to a tally provided by Galvin’s office.

    Salem voters had cast 756 mail ballots by Friday while Gloucester voters had turned in 428 ballots, according to the data. Newburyport voters had cast 716 votes as of Wednesday, Galvin’s office said.

    Topping the statewide ballot is the historic race for the White House between former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, who will be on the ballot with their running mates, Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

    Recent polls show Harris with a wide lead over Trump in deep-blue Massachusetts, but the race is tight nationally – especially in battleground states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, where the candidates and their running mates have been campaigning to rally their supporters and win over undecided voters.

    Besides picking a new president and deciding a handful of contested legislative and local races, voters will consider ballot questions to audit the Legislature, scrap the MCAS graduation mandate, allow ride-hailing drivers to form unions, legalize psychedelic mushrooms, and boost the wages of tipped workers.

    More than half of the state’s voters are registered as independent – not affiliated with a major party – with their ranks swelling in the months leading up to the election. Those who aren’t registered can do so until Oct. 26, Galvin’s office said.

    Galvin is urging voters to check that they are still registered and if not, make sure that they do so before the deadline Saturday to register ahead of the election. Under Massachusetts law, there is a 10-day cutoff to register before a statewide election.

    “If you want to vote for president, any other office on the ballot, or these ballot questions, you need to be registered to vote,” Galvin said in a statement. “Even if you are already a voter, if you’ve moved since the last time you voted, I urge you to check that your address is up to date before it’s too late.”

    Voters can see a full list of candidates, register to vote, and look up early voting locations and times on the secretary of state’s website: www.VoteInMA.com.

    Christian M. Wade covers the Massachusetts Statehouse for North of Boston Media Group’s newspapers and websites. Email him at cwade@cnhinews.com.

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    By Christian M. Wade | Statehouse Reporter

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  • Early voting gets underway ahead of Nov. election

    Early voting gets underway ahead of Nov. election

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    BOSTON — Hundreds of thousands of Massachusetts voters have already cast ballots for next month’s crucial presidential election with a two-week early voting period getting underway this weekend, according to state election officials.

    Each community will have at least one early voting station available during regular business hours, as well as Saturdays and Sundays, through Nov. 1, according to Secretary of State Bill Galvin’s office.

    Voters can also cast their ballots through mail, which can be received by Nov. 8 if postmarked by Election Day, Galvin’s office said.

    “Early voting offers each voter the convenience of casting their ballot at a time that works for them,” Galvin said in a statement. “If you prefer to vote in person, this gives you that opportunity, even if Election Day is a busy day for you.”

    More than 360,000 voters have already cast their ballots by mail as of Thursday, according to Galvin’s office, which says it has sent more than 1.3 million ballots to registered voters who requested them.

    Massachusetts has more than 4.9 million voters, over half of whom are registered as independent – not affiliated with a major party – and whose ranks have swelled in the months leading up to the election. Those who aren’t registered can do so until Oct. 26 and can register online or at early voting locations, Galvin’s office said.

    Topping the Nov. 5 ballot is the contentious, neck-and-neck race for the White House between former Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, who will be on the ballot with their running mates, Ohio Republican Sen. J.D. Vance and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

    Recent polls show Harris with a wide lead over Trump in deep-blue Massachusetts, but the race couldn’t be closer nationally and in battleground states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, where the candidates and their running mates have been campaigning to rally their supporters and win over undecided voters.

    Trump and Harris will share the Massachusetts ballot with several third-party and fringe candidates, including the Party for Socialism and Liberation’s candidates, Claudia De La Cruz and her vice presidential running mate, Karina Garcia.

    Green Party candidate Jill Stein and her vice presidential candidate Gloria Caballero Roca, Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver and his running mate Mike ter Maat, and independent presidential candidate Shiva Ayyadurai and his running mate, Crystal Ellis, will also be on the ballot.

    Besides picking a new president and deciding a handful of contested legislative and local races, voters will consider ballot questions to audit the Legislature, scrap the MCAS graduation mandate, allow ride-hailing drivers to form unions, legalize psychedelic mushrooms and boost the wages of tipped workers.

    The state’s strong consumer protection laws often make it a testing ground for controversial changes in law and policy through the ballot box, and the outcomes of several of the questions are being closely watched nationally.

    Neither of the North of Boston area’s two Democratic congressional members, Reps. Lori Trahan of Westford and Seth Moulton of Salem, are facing challengers. Republicans didn’t field any candidates in 3rd or 6th Congressional District races, ensuring that Trahan and Moulton will win another two years in Congress.

    Despite the lack of contested races in this year’s election cycle, good government groups are still urging Massachusetts voters to cast ballots by mail, during the early voting period or on Election Day.

    “There’s a lot at stake and it’s a huge, consequential election,” Geoff Foster, executive director of Common Cause Massachusetts, said Tuesday during a livestreamed briefing on voting options.

    “The election isn’t three weeks away. It’s now,” he said. “You can vote by mail. You can vote in person during early voting. Or, if you want to keep it old school, you can wait until Tuesday, Nov. 5, and cast a ballot at your local polling station.”

    Voters can see a full list of the candidates, register to vote and look up early voting locations and times on the secretary of state’s website: www.VoteInMA.com.

    Christian M. Wade covers the Massachusetts Statehouse for North of Boston Media Group’s newspapers and websites. Email him at cwade@cnhinews.com.

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    By Christian M. Wade | Statehouse Reporter

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  • This Election Is The Closest Presidential Race In At Least 60 Years: Polls

    This Election Is The Closest Presidential Race In At Least 60 Years: Polls

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    The 2024 presidential election cycle is the first time in at least 60 years that a single candidate hasn’t been ahead 5 points or more in the polls for three-plus weeks, according to an analysis by Harry Enten, host of CNN’s Margins of Error. That margin has existed in every campaign since 1964, Enten explained, except this one—including when President Joe Biden was still running.

    “The race has been consistently close in a way I’ve never seen,” Enten wrote on X. “The bottom line is this election is up for grabs with 2 months to go.”

    Several national and battleground state polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump either tied or within a few percentage points of one another—the results seeming to hover squarely within margins of error.

    Pollsters in this election have had a uniquely tumultuous campaign to track. From Biden’s fraught debate performance in June to the failed assassination attempt on Trump in July, followed by Biden bowing out of the race and Harris’s energized and expedited summer campaign, it’s felt like each week has brought another unprecedented event for Americans to weigh in on.

    Plus, according to a Pew Research Center report, the mere presence of Trump on the ballot can negatively impact the reliability of polling. “Compared with other elections in the past 20 years, polls have been less accurate when Donald Trump is on the ballot,” Pew’s vice president Courtney Kennedy and senior survey advisor Scott Keeter wrote.

    This discrepancy, they found, is likely due to two things. First, pollsters often use past election turnout to predict who will vote in the upcoming race, and “research has found that Trump is popular among people who tend to sit out midterms but turn out for him in presidential election years.” Second, Kennedy and Keeter note, “Republicans in the Trump era have become a little less likely than Democrats to participate in polls.”

    In addition to documenting a historically close race, pollsters have been tracking what issues are driving voters to the ballot box this year.

    An August Economist/YouGov poll of 1,567 American adults found that “Inflation/prices” was the top issue on voters’ minds, at 24%, followed by “Jobs and the economy” at 13%, and “Immigration” at 12%.

    A set of New York Times/Siena College polls of registered voters in seven battleground states conducted from August 6 to 15 found that “For women younger than 45, abortion has overtaken the economy as the single most important issue to their vote.”

    Throughout the 2024 campaign cycle, one thing has remained notably clear: this election could be decided by just a few key battleground states.

    Democratic voters in Omaha, Nebraska, have been putting signs in their yards with a singular blue dot, a symbol of Harris’s potential stronghold in a red state. Nebraska is one of only two states that awards electoral votes by congressional district, rather than by statewide winner.

    “For all of the pathways for Harris and Trump to reach the White House,” CNN’s Jeff Zeleny writes, “the race for 270 electoral votes could come down to Nebraska’s sprawling 2nd District covering Omaha and parts of two nearby counties, which hold many similarities to suburban areas across the country.”

    On top of Omaha’s blue dot, the final tallies in seven states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—may grant either Trump or Harris the 270 needed to win.

    In the case of an Electoral College tie, a centuries-old constitutional mechanism could end up deciding the election. If both Harris and Trump take home 269 Electoral College votes, the House would decide the election, per the 12th Amendment—that hasn’t happened since 1824.

    Should it be tossed to the House, each state delegation would be allotted one vote. Currently, Republicans control 26 House delegations; Democrats control 22, and two others are tied. Meaning, Trump could lose the popular vote—as he has the last two times he’s run for executive office—tie in the general election, and still end up in the White House.

    A close election could exacerbate already percolating right-wing theories of voter fraud—and risk a revival of Trump’s 2020 Big Lie, the unfounded claim that the election was stolen from him by Biden.

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    Katie Herchenroeder

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  • Kamala Harris’ candidacy shakes up presidential race 100 days from election

    Kamala Harris’ candidacy shakes up presidential race 100 days from election

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    Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is shaking up the presidential race in the final stretch as both sides race to redefine the likely Democratic nominee.With exactly 100 days to go until Election Day, Democrats say Harris is injecting new energy into the campaign while Republicans are ramping up attacks. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump tested new talking points at a series of events this weekend. Just short of one week since President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid, the Harris campaign reported recruiting more than 170,000 new volunteers and raising $200 million.Harris added to the cash haul on Saturday with her first fundraiser since taking over the Democratic ticket. Her campaign announced the event in Pittsfield, Massachusetts was expected to bring in more than $1.4 million, exceeding the original goal set before President Biden’s departure by $1 million. Harris is also working to expand support with key parts of the Democratic base that appeared to be eroding under Biden, including people of color and young voters. “We know young voters will be key and we know your vote cannot be taken for granted, it must be earned and that is exactly what we will do,” the Vice President said in a video message Saturday at the Voters of Tomorrow Summit in Atlanta, Georgia. Social media is a growing part of that strategy, with Harris launching a new TikTok account in recent days. Her latest post features NSYNC’s Lance Bass asking Harris, “What are we going to say to Donald Trump in November?” as the boy band’s hit song “Bye, Bye, Bye” plays in the background. There are some early signs the Harris playbook may be working. A new Emerson College/The Hill poll suggests she’s closing the gap in five swing states, though Trump maintains a slight lead in most of them. “Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” wrote Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”Another new survey from Fox News finds Harris and Trump are tied in the key swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump leads by one point in battleground Wisconsin. “I think what she does is put all the states that Biden won last time back into play,” said Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs. ‘As polls tighten, Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee on Saturday, followed by a campaign rally in St. Cloud, Minnesota. Trump’s attacks towards Harris ranged from personal to political. He said he is running against a “low IQ individual” and that she will be “the most extreme radical liberal president in American history.” Trump is also seeking to tie Harris to Biden’s record on inflation and immigration, both weaknesses for Democrats according to polling. “Under ‘Border Czar Harris’, millions of migrants are pouring across our border,” Trump told the crowd in Minnesota. It’s a message that’s flooding the airwaves. An analysis from The Associated Press published earlier this week found Trump and his allies are outspending Harris’ team 25-to-1 on television and radio advertising. In her first campaign ad, Harris positioned herself as a defender of freedom, from reproductive rights to the “freedom to be safe from gun violence.” “There are some people who think we should be a country of chaos, of fear, of hate. But us? We choose something different. We choose freedom,” Harris says in the ad. The national Democratic Party is expected to begin a virtual voting process to nominate its ticket this week. Harris could be approved as the nominee as early as Aug. 1st and she’s expected to choose a running mate by Aug. 7.

    Vice President Kamala Harris‘ campaign is shaking up the presidential race in the final stretch as both sides race to redefine the likely Democratic nominee.

    With exactly 100 days to go until Election Day, Democrats say Harris is injecting new energy into the campaign while Republicans are ramping up attacks. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump tested new talking points at a series of events this weekend.

    Just short of one week since President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid, the Harris campaign reported recruiting more than 170,000 new volunteers and raising $200 million.

    Harris added to the cash haul on Saturday with her first fundraiser since taking over the Democratic ticket. Her campaign announced the event in Pittsfield, Massachusetts was expected to bring in more than $1.4 million, exceeding the original goal set before President Biden’s departure by $1 million.

    Harris is also working to expand support with key parts of the Democratic base that appeared to be eroding under Biden, including people of color and young voters.

    “We know young voters will be key and we know your vote cannot be taken for granted, it must be earned and that is exactly what we will do,” the Vice President said in a video message Saturday at the Voters of Tomorrow Summit in Atlanta, Georgia.

    Social media is a growing part of that strategy, with Harris launching a new TikTok account in recent days. Her latest post features NSYNC’s Lance Bass asking Harris, “What are we going to say to Donald Trump in November?” as the boy band’s hit song “Bye, Bye, Bye” plays in the background.

    There are some early signs the Harris playbook may be working.

    A new Emerson College/The Hill poll suggests she’s closing the gap in five swing states, though Trump maintains a slight lead in most of them.

    “Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” wrote Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”

    Another new survey from Fox News finds Harris and Trump are tied in the key swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump leads by one point in battleground Wisconsin.

    “I think what she does is put all the states that Biden won last time back into play,” said Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs. ‘

    As polls tighten, Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee on Saturday, followed by a campaign rally in St. Cloud, Minnesota.

    Trump’s attacks towards Harris ranged from personal to political. He said he is running against a “low IQ individual” and that she will be “the most extreme radical liberal president in American history.”

    Trump is also seeking to tie Harris to Biden’s record on inflation and immigration, both weaknesses for Democrats according to polling.

    “Under ‘Border Czar Harris’, millions of migrants are pouring across our border,” Trump told the crowd in Minnesota.

    It’s a message that’s flooding the airwaves. An analysis from The Associated Press published earlier this week found Trump and his allies are outspending Harris’ team 25-to-1 on television and radio advertising.

    In her first campaign ad, Harris positioned herself as a defender of freedom, from reproductive rights to the “freedom to be safe from gun violence.”

    “There are some people who think we should be a country of chaos, of fear, of hate. But us? We choose something different. We choose freedom,” Harris says in the ad.

    The national Democratic Party is expected to begin a virtual voting process to nominate its ticket this week. Harris could be approved as the nominee as early as Aug. 1st and she’s expected to choose a running mate by Aug. 7.

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  • Fears of a Purple Wave in Democratic Strongholds Cast Doubt on Biden’s Campaign

    Fears of a Purple Wave in Democratic Strongholds Cast Doubt on Biden’s Campaign

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    As President Joe Biden’s campaign viability faces new critiques and daily defections, solidly blue states may be shifting toward purple, according to polling and local officials across the country.

    Still months away from the general election, some Democratic leaders and polls show that Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia—all of which Biden won by several percentage points in 2020—are potentially ebbing closer to battleground states for Biden and former president Donald Trump.

    “The dynamics are different in each of the four possible battleground states: Minnesota, for instance, has a knack for voting for third-party candidates, while New Mexico has a large population of Hispanic men, a group that Mr. Biden has struggled to win over,” The New York Times’s Nicholas Nehamas and Kellen Browning wrote on Friday. “But consistent across all four states are widespread fears about Mr. Biden’s age, unhappiness with inflation and electorates that are more closely divided than many national observers realize, according to interviews with local Democratic officials and strategists.”

    This apparent transition of Democratic stronghold states comes after weeks of contentious commotion surrounding Biden’s fitness to lead the party’s ticket—and this country for another four years—following a poor debate performance at the end of June. As of July 12, according to tracking from the Times, 19 representatives, one senator, and a growing number of powerful donors and business leaders have all called on the president to step aside, with even more expressing concern for whether Biden could effectively prevent another Trump administration.

    “I believe the time has come for President Biden to pass the torch,” Representative Mike Levin of California said. “I fear if he fails to make the right choice, our democracy will hang in the balance,” Illinois Representative Brad Schneider said Thursday. “I understand why President Biden wants to run. He saved us from Donald Trump once and wants to do it again,” Peter Welch, the first Senator in the country to push for Biden to drop out, wrote in a Washington Post editorial, “But he needs to reassess whether he is the best candidate to do so. In my view, he is not.”

    Since the immediate fallout from Biden’s poor debate performance, the president has been consistent in his insistence that he is going to stay in the race.

    In a post-debate interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, Biden dismissed concerns that his cognitive health was declining and attempted to use his policy legacy as an assurance of his potential future successes.

    “If you can be convinced that you cannot defeat Donald Trump, will you stand down?” Stephanopoulos asked.

    “If the Lord Almighty comes down and tells me that, I might do that,” later adding, “The Lord Almighty’s not comin’ down.”

    Multiple polls have forecasted a tight nationwide race in November, even with the growing discontent about the Democratic ticket. The latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll has Biden and Trump in a tie. A new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that Biden actually gained a point since last month’s pre-debate survey. And that poll, taken among registered voters, including leaners, puts Biden at 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in a two-way presidential matchup.

    State-by-state contests, though, are still causing Democratic leaders to stress.

    A Fox News Poll found that in Virginia, where Biden won by over 450,000 votes in 2020, the race is tied—with the two men each standing at 48 percent. Virginia hasn’t sided with a Republican in two decades, since George W. Bush won reelection in 2004.

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    Katie Herchenroeder

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  • 44% of Americans feel they’ve lost time to poor mental health, survey says. It’s worse for people with depression or anxiety

    44% of Americans feel they’ve lost time to poor mental health, survey says. It’s worse for people with depression or anxiety

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    Every now and then you may wonder, Where did the time go? Whether mystified at how quickly an afternoon slipped away or reflecting on years gone by at lightning speed, you’ve probably experienced periodic sensations of lost time. Yet 44% of Americans feel they’ve lost time in their lives due to a known culprit: poor mental health.

    Among people diagnosed with depression and/or anxiety, this percentage nearly doubles to 78%.

    That’s according to a new national survey from Myriad Genetics, dubbed the GeneSight Mental Health Monitor. In February, the genetic testing company and ACUPOLL Precision Research surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults about their mental health. The results, published in April, reveal the chronological toll of mental illness.

    Among respondents diagnosed with depression and/or anxiety, 50% said they’ve lost years of their life to poor mental health, while 12% said they’ve lost decades.

    “For a patient who is struggling, time ticks a lot slower than it does for the rest of us,” Debbie Thomas, EdD, a psychiatric nurse practitioner in Prospect, Ky., said in a GeneSight news release. “One of my patients told me that when they woke up in the morning, they counted how many hours before they could go back to bed. That’s pretty telling when someone is in the depths of depression and anxiety to that degree.”  

    Many people reported poor mental health has robbed them of not only time itself, but also fundamental moments. About 71% of respondents said it has kept them from being fully present during important events, and more than half of people with depression and/or anxiety said they’d missed out on a major life event because of their mental health. Respondents with these conditions said they felt guilty, hopeless, useless, worthless, and/or self-critical when missing milestones.

    In addition, 33% of respondents with depression and/or anxiety cited ineffective mental health treatments as a reason for missing significant events.

    The vast majority of people with depression and/or anxiety, 82%, said their mental health had prevented them from having fun or enjoying themselves in the past year, compared to 78% of all respondents.

    Patients with depression and/or anxiety tend to be as upset about the time they feel they lost due to poor mental health as they are about having a mental illness, said Sharon Philbin, MSN, an advanced practice registered nurse in Pawtucket, R.I.

    “Patients who have lost time due to depressive episodes or periods of anxiety often feel a sense of loss, which further complicates their mental health situation,” Philbin said in the news release. “Many of my patients say they are thankful they feel better, but they worry that it will happen again.”

    Just 16% of survey respondents said they feel “ready to take on the world” following a depressive episode. They also feel:

    • Exhausted: 60%
    • Coming out of a fog: 50%
    • Disappointed to have missed out on life: 47%

    The survey relied on respondents to self-report having been diagnosed with depression or anxiety by a medical professional. While polling included mental health screening instruments—the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2) for depression and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-2 (GAD-2) questionnaire for anxiety—it’s unclear what types of these disorders respondents had.

    If you need immediate mental health support, contact the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline.

    For more on mental health:

    Subscribe to Well Adjusted, our newsletter full of simple strategies to work smarter and live better, from the Fortune Well team. Sign up for free today.

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    Lindsey Leake

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  • 2024 World Happiness Rankings: USA Falls Out of Top 20, Youngest Hit Hardest

    2024 World Happiness Rankings: USA Falls Out of Top 20, Youngest Hit Hardest

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    What are the top 20 happiest countries in the world? How do mental health and well-being trends look in the United States and Canada? The 2024 World Happiness Report is in!


    The World Happiness Report is a research initiative to compare happiness levels between different countries.

    The project first launched in 2012, surveying more than 350,000 people in 95 countries asking them to rate their happiness on a 10-point scale.

    Each year they release a new report and the 2024 full report was just published a few weeks ago. There are some interesting findings in it that are worth highlighting.

    First let’s look at the happiness rankings by country.

    Top 20 Happiest Countries

    Here are the top 20 happiest countries in 2024 according to the report.

    The scores are on a scale of 1-10. Each participant was asked to think of a ladder, with the best possible life for them being a “10” and the worst possible life being a “0.” They were then asked to rate their current lives. The final rankings are the average score for each country.

    (By the way, this simple test for measuring subjective well-being is known as the “Cantril Ladder,” it’s a common tool used in public polling especially the Gallup World Poll.)

    The results:

      1. Finland (7.741)
      2. Denmark (7.538)
      3. Iceland (7.525)
      4. Sweden (7.344)
      5. Israel (7.341)
      6. Netherlands (7.319)
      7. Norway (7.302)
      8. Luxembourg (7.122)
      9. Switzerland (7.060)
      10. Australia (7.057)
      11. New Zealand (7.029)
      12. Costa Rica (6.955)
      13. Kuwait (6.951)
      14. Austria (6.905)
      15. Canada (6.900)
      16. Belgium (6.894)
      17. Ireland (6.838)
      18. Czechia (6.822)
      19. Lithuania (6.818)
      20. United Kingdom (6.749)

    The top 10 countries have remained stable over the years. As of March 2024, Finland has been ranked the happiest country in the world seven times in a row.

    There was more movement in the top 20 rankings. Most notably, this is the first year that the United States dropped out of the top 20 (from rank 15 to 23 – an 8 place drop).

    More alarming are the age gaps in happiness reports. In both the U.S. and Canada, those above the age of 60 report significantly higher rates of happiness than those below 30.

    Above age 60, the U.S. ranks 10 overall on the world happiness rankings. Below age 30, the U.S. falls to rank 62, just beating out Peru, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

    Could this be a sign of a continuing downward trend in places like the U.S. and Canada?

    Potential Factors Behind Life Evaluation

    How to measure happiness is always a controversial topic.

    To this day, psychologists and social scientists don’t really have a reliable way to determine happiness besides simply asking someone, “How happy are you?”

    However, the World Happiness Report attempts to take the above findings and break them down into six main factors that contribute to overall life evaluation on a societal level.

    These factors don’t influence the final rankings, they are just a way to make sense of the results:

    • GDP per capita – A general measure of a country’s overall wealth.
    • Life expectancy – A general measure of a country’s overall health.
    • Generosity – The level of a country’s trust and kindness through charity and volunteering.
    • Social support – The level of a country’s social cohesion and community.
    • Freedom – The level of a country’s freedom to live life as a person sees fit.
    • Corruption – A general measure of government competence and political accountability.

    Each factor helps explain the differences in overall happiness between countries, with some countries performing better in certain areas over others.

    One benefit of this model is that it looks beyond GDP (or “Gross Domestic Product”) which has long been the overall benchmark for comparing countries in the social sciences. The U.S. has the highest GDP in the world and frequently ranks in the top 10 per capita, but the happiness rankings show there is more to the picture.

    Conclusion

    The World Happiness Report is a good guideline for comparing happiness and well-being between different countries. How does your country rank? It will be interesting to see how these rankings change over the next few years, do you have any predictions?


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    Steven Handel

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  • Trump Leads Biden By Four Points: NYT/Siena Poll

    Trump Leads Biden By Four Points: NYT/Siena Poll

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    President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump with general election voters because of his perceived lack of leadership and voter concerns about where the nation is heading, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll published Saturday.

    The Trump-Biden breakdown among registered voters as a whole (48 to 43 percent, respectively) was even worse for the President than among likely voters (48 to 44 percent), continuing a dynamic that has held throughout this campaign in which Biden slightly outmatches his rival among the voters who are actually likely to show up in November.

    But while that dynamic has given Biden a lead in previous polls—the last Times/Siena poll in December found Biden down two points among registered voters but up two points among likely ones—it wasn’t enough this time to give him an advantage. Saturday’s tally was the largest lead Trump has ever had in a Times/Siena poll—including in the 2016 and 2020 races.

    The poll comes as voter attitudes toward the economy remain resoundingly pessimistic, and the President faces growing questions about his age and his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Biden’s approval rating in Saturday’s poll was a dismal 36 percent, with 47 percent of voters expressing strong disapproval—the highest number of his presidency. Only 18 percent of voters felt Biden’s policies had helped them personally. Over double that number said the same for Trump.

    Perhaps the poll’s starkest finding is that two-thirds of the electorate believes the country is “on the wrong track.” Trump is winning 63 percent of those voters. 

    “Mr. Biden is very unpopular,” the Times’ Nate Cohn wrote bluntly on Saturday. “He’s so unpopular that he’s now even less popular than Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was four years ago.”

    In addition to his unfavorability numbers, the poll indicates that Biden’s lead among women and racial minorities is slipping away. Biden maintains a slim six-point lead among minorities without college degrees, a demographic that voted for him by 50 points in 2020. Women are now equally split between the two candidates, while Trump leads among Latino voters.

    In a further sign that the electorate that pushed Biden to victory in 2020 may be unraveling, 17 percent of voters who cast ballots for him in 2020 aren’t supporting his re-election. A full 10 percent of Biden 2020 voters said that they plan to back Trump, who—despite a more fractious primary campaign—is still winning 97 percent of the voters who voted for him last time.

    One piece of encouraging news for the Biden campaign is that among so-called “double haters”—voters who disapprove of both candidates—Biden came out on top by 12 points. The candidate who won that part of the electorate, the Times noted, emerged victorious in both 2016 and 2020.

    Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler responded to the poll Saturday by saying the campaign is “ignoring the noise.”

    “Polling continues to be at odds with how Americans vote, and consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden,” he said in a statement. “Whether it’s in special elections or in the presidential primaries, actual voter behavior tells us a lot more than any poll does, and it tells a very clear story: Joe Biden and Democrats continue to outperform while Donald Trump and the party he leads are weak, cash-strapped, and deeply divided. Our campaign is ignoring the noise and running a strong campaign to win — just like we did in 2020.”

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    Jack McCordick

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  • Honey, We Dumped the Playbook: 10 Ways the Midterms Rewrote American Politics in 2022

    Honey, We Dumped the Playbook: 10 Ways the Midterms Rewrote American Politics in 2022

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    One of the few absolute constants of American politics is that every election cycle brings its own surprises. Which, like good drama, makes elections interesting and entertaining—and, often, real nail-biters. 

    Inevitably, no matter how much analysis or how many polls are conducted, the results prove the experts wrong. In fact, arguably—despite advances in knowledge, data, and technology—we’ve been getting it more wrong than ever before. How does that happen?

    Well, this election was a good example of how we become seduced by convenient narratives. One of the obvious tools we use is history. We look back at the accumulated experience of past elections to project what might happen in the future. But this can be extremely misleading and misguided. Because it leads to the kind of thinking I hear all the time from political insiders: “X won’t happen because X has never happened before.”

    Then you have a Black man elected president. And a real estate huckster from New York City. And a peanut farmer from Georgia. And an actor from California. All things never thought possible. Until they happened. So, the only real rule here is: Things aren’t possible in politics—until they are. 

    Let’s look back at the Big Blue Surprise of November 2022. In this election, by using history as a guide, a red wave was predicted. In only two midterms since 1934 has the president’s party not lost seats in the House, and one of those was simply due to a post–9/11 blush of support for the incumbent. 

    Also, over the last decade, Republicans had won most redistricting fights and were therefore expected to pick up seats simply as a result of more GOP-favorable electoral maps. 

    On top of that, the Republicans seemed on the offensive on three key issues that were plaguing the Democrats: the troubled state of the economy, crime, and immigration. 

    Reporters are often criticized for reporting and writing analysis and predictions from their offices in places like Washington, DC, and never getting their boots on the ground around the country.

    But, wait a moment. I can testify to how misleading this sort of anecdotal canvassing can be. For the work I do for the weekly political series The Circus, on Showtime, I spent most of the fall traveling all over America, going to coffee shops, truck stops, bus tours, house parties, and small-town rallies. In fact, since 2016, I have adopted a sort of “momentum test” based on what I see on the ground in the last two weeks leading up to an election. My fieldwork out on the hustings six years ago, for example, told me something tangible during that Hillary ClintonDonald Trump face-off. Yes, I certainly believed, along with 99% of the rest of the country, that Clinton was likely to win. But about seven days before voters went to the polls, I made the assertion on Megyn Kelly’s show, on Fox News, that a person out in the heartland—in the political thick of things during the last week of a campaign—usually gets a sense which direction the momentum is headed. And I said that Trump seemed to have some winds at his back. 

    This past November, as well, those winds were all blowing in a seemingly discernable direction. Our team from The Circus put on a full-scale blitz and went to 17 states in the final few days of the campaign. And if you judged what the outcome might be—simply by the size and enthusiasm of crowds—you’d likely have guessed: red wave. 

    New Hampshire was a good example. Democratic senator Maggie Hassan had seemed in solid shape until the final weeks when polls showed the race tightening. I went to an event at her campaign headquarters, which by any objective standards was modest. A small group of supporters appeared earnest, committed, and dutiful, but hardly excited. On the other hand, Hassan’s MAGA-leaning, Trump-endorsed opponent, retired Army general Don Bolduc, held one of his many town hall meetings and he drew an SRO crowd of supporters who were enthusiastic, committed, and energized.

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    Mark McKinnon

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