As of January 6, Decision Desk HQ’s national average places approval at 43.2 percent and disapproval at 53.3 percent, while Ballotpedia’s index shows a similar split of 42 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval.
At the time of writing, VoteHub’s live tracker reported that 42.5 percent approved and 53.9 percent disapproved, reinforcing the consensus that disapproval still exceeded approval by double digits.
Still, this represents a slight improvement from November’s lows near 41 percent. The shift is incremental rather than dramatic, leaving the president with a persistent net-negative rating.
Decision Desk HQ’s polling tracker combines all credible public polls that meet the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s standards into an average, focusing on recent data, limiting the impact of campaign-funded polls and smoothing trends as more polls come in to give a clearer picture of public opinion.
Similarly, Ballotpedia’s index averages the latest polls from trusted national sources over the past 30 days to give an up-to-date picture of public opinion, updating daily as new results come in.
VoteHub, meanwhile, averages recent polls from reputable pollsters, giving more weight to newer polls, to provide a clear and simple snapshot of public opinion.
What People Are Saying
Scott Tranter, the director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, told The Hill: “Roughly a year in, he’s right in the middle. He’s right where, basically, he’s been all year, which is unremarkable. It’s remarkable because it’s unremarkable.”
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said in a December analysis: “Interestingly, our recent job performance surveys have shown the number of undecided respondents at an unusually high number. This tells us that some voters, particularly independents, remain unsure as to his accomplishments so far. This suggests he has work to do as he and the GOP enter the midterm season.”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Newsweek last month: “President Trump and every member of his administration are clear-eyed about the fact that Americans continue to reel from the lingering effects of Joe Biden’s generational economic crisis.
“Turning the Biden economic disaster around has informed nearly every action the Trump administration has taken since Day One, from unleashing American energy to cut gas prices to signing historic drug pricing deals to cut costs for American patients.
“Much work remains, and every member of the Trump administration continues to focus on recreating the historic job, wage, and economic growth that Americans enjoyed during President Trump’s first term.”
Desai also previously told Newsweek: “President Trump inherited the worst inflation crisis in a generation from Joe Biden’s incompetence, and his administration has rapidly cooled inflation to a 2.5 percent annualized rate. Americans can count on inflation continuing to fall and real wages continuing to rise.”
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in December: “The polls are rigged even more than the writers. The real number is 64 percent, and why not, our Country is ‘hotter’ than ever before. Isn’t it nice to have a STRONG BORDER, No Inflation, a powerful Military, and great Economy??? Happy New Year!”
Polls show persistent concern among Americans about both economic and foreign policy developments, with majorities worried about prices, affordability and the U.S.’s role overseas. The administration’s policy decisions—both domestic and international—and the country’s day-to-day economic experiences are expected to be decisive in shaping public opinion and influencing the 2026 midterms.
California voters are sharply divided along partisan lines over the Trump administration’s immigration raids this year in Los Angeles and across the nation, according to a new poll.
Just over half of the state’s registered voters oppose federal efforts to reduce undocumented immigration, and 61% are against deporting everyone in the nation who doesn’t have legal status, according to a recent poll by UC Berkeley’s Possibility Lab released to The Times on Wednesday.
But there is an acute difference in opinions based on political leanings.
Nearly 80% of Democrats oppose reducing the number of people entering the United States illegally, and 90% are against deporting everyone in the country who is undocumented, according to the poll. Among Republicans, 5% are against reducing the entries and 10% don’t believe all undocumented immigrants should be forced to leave.
“The big thing that we find, not surprisingly, is that Democrats and Republicans look really different,” said political scientist Amy Lerman, director of UC Berkeley’s Possibility Lab, who studies race, public opinion and political behavior. “On these perspectives, they fall pretty clearly along party lines. While there’s some variation within the parties by things like age and race, really, the big divide is between Democrats and Republicans.”
While there were some differences based on gender, age, income, geography and race, the results largely mirrored the partisan divide in the state, Lerman said.
One remarkable finding was that nearly a quarter of survey respondents personally knew or were acquainted with someone in their family or friend groups directly affected by the deportation efforts, Lerman said.
“That’s a really substantial proportion,” she said. “Similarly, the extent to which we see people reporting that people in their communities are concerned enough about deportation efforts that they’re not sending their kids to school, not shopping in local stores, not going to work,” not seeking medical care or attending church services.
The poll surveyed a sample of the state’s registered voters and did not include the sentiments of the most affected communities — unregistered voters or those who are ineligible to cast ballots because they are not citizens.
A little more than 23 million of California’s 39.5 million residents were registered to vote as of late October, according to the secretary of state’s office.
“So if we think about the California population generally, this is a really significant underestimate of the effects, even though we’re seeing really substantial effects on communities,” she said.
Earlier this year, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement launched a series of raids in Los Angeles and surrounding communities that spiked in June, creating both fear and outrage in Latino communities. Despite opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and other elected Democrats, the Trump administration also deployed the National Guard to the streets of the nation’s second-largest city to, federal officials said, protect federal immigration officials.
The months since have been chaotic, with masked, armed agents randomly pulling people — most of whom are Latino — off the streets and out of their workplaces and sending many to detention facilities, where some have died. Some deportees were flown to an El Salvador prison. Multiple lawsuits have been filed by state officials and civil rights groups.
In one notable local case, a federal district judge issued a ruling temporarily blocking federal agents from using racial profiling to carry out indiscriminate immigration arrests in the Los Angeles area. The Supreme Court granted an emergency appeal and lifted that order, while the case moves forward.
More than 7,100 undocumented immigrants have been arrested in the Los Angeles area by federal authorities since June 6, according to the Department of Homeland Security.
On Monday, Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach), Bass and other elected officials hosted a congressional hearing on the impact of immigration raids that have taken place across the country. Garcia, the top Democrat on the House’s oversight committee, also announced the creation of a tracker to document misconduct and abuse during ICE raids.
While Republican voters largely aligned with Trump’s actions on deportations, 16% said that they believed that the deportations will worsen the state’s economy.
Lerman said the university planned to study whether these numbers changed as the impacts on the economy are felt more greatly.
“If it continues to affect people, particularly, as we see really high rates of effects on the workforce, so construction, agriculture, all of the places where we’re as an economy really reliant [on immigrant labor], I can imagine some of these starting to shift even among Republicans,” she said.
Among Latinos, whose support of Trump grew in the 2024 election, there are multiple indications of growing dissatisfaction with the president, according to separate national polls.
Nearly eight in 10 Latinos said Trump’s policies have harmed their community, compared to 69% in 2019 during his first term, according to a national poll of adults in the United States released by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center on Monday. About 71% said the administration’s deportation efforts had gone too far, an increase from 56% in March. And it was the first time in the two decades that Pew has conducted its survey of Latino voters that the number of Latinos who said their standing in the United States had worsened increased, with more than two-thirds expressing the sentiment.
Another poll released earlier this month by Somos Votantes, a liberal group that urges Latino voters to support Democratic candidates, found that one-third of Latino voters who previously supported Trump rue their decision, according to a national poll.
Small business owner Brian Gavidia is among the Latino voters who supported Trump in November because of financial struggles.
“I was tired of struggling, I was tired of seeing my friends closing businesses,” the 30-year-old said. “When [President] Biden ran again I’m like, ‘I’m not going to vote for the same four years we just had’ … I was sad and I was heartbroken that our economy was failing and that’s the reason why I went that way.”
The East L.A. native, the son of immigrants from Colombia and El Salvador, said he wasn’t concerned about Trump’s immigration policies because the president promised to deport the “worst of the worst.”
He grew disgusted watching the raids that unfolded in Los Angeles earlier this year.
“They’re taking fruit vendors, day laborers, that’s the worst of the worst to you?” he remembered thinking.
Over a lunch of asada tortas and horchata in East L.A., Gavidia recounted being detained by Border Patrol agents in June while working at a Montebello tow yard. Agents shoved him against a metal gate, demanding to know what hospital he was born at after he said he was an American citizen, according to video of the incident.
After reviewing his ID, the agents eventually let Gavidia go. The Department of Homeland Security later claimed that Gavidia was detained for investigation for interference and released after being confirmed to be a U.S. citizen with no outstanding warrants. He is now a plaintiff in a lawsuit filed by the ACLU and immigrant advocacy groups alleging racial profiling during immigration raids.
“At that moment, I was the criminal, at that moment I was the worst of the worst, which is crazy because I went to go see who they were getting — the worst of the worst like they said they were going to get,” Gavidia said. “But turns out when I got there, I was the worst of the worst.”
Successful Habits Quiz: What To Keep Vs. What To Ditch
I don’t know about you, but I’ve definitely grown tired of hearing about the bizarre things successful people do in the name of productivity. Like, WHY?
Between eating only carrots and taking “air baths,” some of these habits feel straight out of a parody sketch. So it’s only fair that we finally get together and put the record straight once and for all, and vote for which ridiculous “successful person” habit is actually worth it, and which ones are just… not it.
It’s time for PolitiFact’s readers to make their case for the annual Lie of the Year. And this year, we’re changing things up.
PolitiFact awards the Lie of the Year to the most significant falsehood or exaggeration that worked to undermine an accurate narrative. (PolitiFact editors make the official choice.)
We normally ask our readers to pick one falsehood they think should be Lie of the Year. But this year, we want you to rank our options from most to least significant falsehood.
You can also tell us which falsehood you thought was Lie of the Year worthy and why, either as a written answer in the form or by sending a video explaining your choice to [email protected]. We’ll feature clear and concise responses on PolitiFact’s social media accounts.
President Donald Trump: Regarding boat strikes off the coast of Venezuela, “Every boat that we knock out we save 25,000 American lives.” Pants on Fire.
President Donald Trump: “There’s no downside” to not taking Tylenol when you’re pregnant. Pants on Fire.
U.S. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah: The suspect in the Minnesota lawmakers’ shootings was driven by “Marxist” ideology. Pants on Fire.
Benjamin Netanyahu: “There is no starvation in Gaza.” False.
President Donald Trump: Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia “had ‘MS-13’ on his knuckles tattooed. … He had ‘MS’ as clear as you can be. Not ‘interpreted.’” Pants on Fire.
President Donald Trump: Asked about his campaign promise to deport the “worst of the worst,” Trump said, “That’s what we’re doing.” See our check.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker: The federal government “decided to shut down the SNAP machines, so that they can’t be used.” False.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt: “Tariffs are a tax cut for the American people.” False.
Vice President JD Vance: Democrats shut down the government to give health care to illegal immigrants. False.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries: “The Trump administration just declared that erecting a ballroom is the president’s main priority,” rather than issues such as the cost of living and health care. False.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth: “Nobody was texting war plans” in the Trump administration Signal group text about bombing Yemen. False.
Social media posts, left-wing influencers: The “Trump is dead” Labor Day weekend conspiracy theory. Special report.
President Donald Trump: The Jeffrey Epstein files “were made up by Comey. They were made up by Obama. They were made up by Biden.” Pants on Fire.
President Donald Trump: “Portland is burning to the ground.” Pants on Fire.
House Minority Leader Jeffries: “Republicans have effectively ended medical research in the United States of America.” Mostly False.
Republicans in California have diverging opinions on President Trump’s immigration enforcement policies, according to a study published by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute on Monday.
The Trump administration has deployed a sweeping crackdown on immigration, launching ICE raids across the country and removing legal barriers in order to make deportations faster. The study found that while Democrats were largely consistent in their opposition to these immigration policies, Republican sentiment varied more, especially by age, gender and ethnicity.
“At least some subset of Republicans are seeing that these immigration strategies are a step too far,” said G. Cristina Mora, a sociology professor and co-director of the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, which administered the poll. The polling data were collected from nearly 5,000 registered voters in mid-August. Just over 1,000 of those surveyed were registered Republicans.
Latino Republicans, with whom Trump made historic gains during the 2024 elections, showed the highest levels of disagreement with the party’s aggressive stance on immigration. Young people from 18 to 29 and moderate women in the Republican Party also more significantly diverged from Trump’s policies.
The majority of Republican respondents expressed approval of Trump’s immigration strategy overall. However, the study found respondents diverged more from Trump’s policies that ignore established legal processes, including due process, birthright citizenship and identification of federal agents.
“On these legalistic issues, this is where you see some of the bigger breaks,” Mora said.
Of those surveyed, 28% disapproved of the end of birthright citizenship, which Trump is pushing for, and 45% agreed that ICE agents should show clear identification. Four in 10 Republican respondents also support due process for detained immigrants.
Young people, who make up about 15% of the party in California, were on average also more likely to break from Trump’s policies than older Republicans.
The analysis also found that education level and region had almost no impact on respondents’ beliefs on immigration.
Latinos and women were more likely to disagree with Trump on humanitarian issues than their demographic counterparts.
Nearly 60% of moderate Republican women disagree with deporting longtime undocumented immigrants, compared with 47% of moderate men. 45% of women believe ICE raids unfairly target Latino communities.
The political party was most split across racial lines when it came to immigration enforcement being expanded into hospitals and schools. Forty-four percent of Latinos disagreed with the practice, compared with 26% of white respondents, while 46% of Latino respondents disagreed with deporting immigrants who have resided in the country for a long time, compared with just 30% of their white counterparts.
Trump had gained a significant Latino vote that helped him win reelection last year. Democratic candidates, however, made gains with Latino voters in elections earlier this month, indicating a possible shift away from the GOP.
The data could indicate Latino Republicans “are somewhat disillusioned” by the Trump administration’s handling of immigration, Mora said. “Latinos aren’t just disagreeing on the issues that we think are about process and American legal fairness. They’re also disagreeing on just the idea that this is cruel.”
Mora said the deluge of tense and sometimes violent encounters posted online could have an impact on Republican opinion surrounding immigration. A plainclothes agent pointed his gun at a female driver in Santa Ana last week, and two shootings involving ICE agents took place in Southern California late last month.
“You now have several months of Latinos being able to log on to their social media and see every kind of video of Latinos being targeted with or without papers,” Mora said. “I have to believe that that is doing something to everybody, not just Latino Republicans or Latino Democrats.”
California Democrats’ effort to block President Trump’s agenda by increasing their party’s numbers in Congress was overwhelmingly approved by voters on Tuesday.
The Associated Press called the victory moments after the polls closed Tuesday night.
The statewide ballot measure will reconfigure California’s congressional districts to favor more Democratic candidates. The Democratic-led California Legislature placed the measure on the Nov. 4 ballot, at Gov. Gavin Newsom’s behest, after Trump urged Texas and other GOP-led states to modify their congressional maps to favor their party members, a move designed to keep the U.S. House of Representatives in Republican control during his final two years in office.
Newsom watched the election results from across the country come in from the historic Victorian-style governor’s mansion in Sacramento with First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom and his political team, his office said.
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, the chair of the Democratic Governors Assn., said they were thrilled by the passage of Proposition 50.
“This is a clear victory for Americans who believe we should have fair elections and a major rejection of Donald Trump’s dangerous attempt to rig the midterms,” Kelly said in a statement.
Charles Munger Jr., the chief donor to the anti-Proposition 50 efforts, pledged to continue his work promoting independent redistricting, while lamenting the ballot measure’s success.
“For what looms for the people of California, I am saddened by the passage of Proposition 50,” he said. “But I am content in this, at least: that our campaign educated the people of California so they could make an informed, if in my view unwise, decision about such a technical but critical issue as redistricting reform, a decision forced to be made over such a very short time.”
Proposition 50 was the sole item on the statewide, special election ballot Tuesday. Supporters hope the ballot measure has become a referendum about Trump, who remains extremely unpopular in California, while opponents call Proposition 50 an underhanded power grab by Democrats.
Supporters of the proposal had the edge going into election day. They vastly outraised their rivals, and Proposition 50 led in recent polls.
Elections took place across the nation Tuesday, with Democrats claiming major victories including in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests, the New York City mayoral race and Proposition 50.
Supporters celebrate during the election night watch party for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger.
(Alex Wong / Getty Images)
California voters had been inundated with television ads, mailers and social media posts for weeks about the high-stakes election, so much so that only 2% of the likely voters were undecided, according to a recent UC Berkeley poll co-sponsored by The Times.
“Usually there was always a rule — look at undecideds in late-breaking polls and assume most would vote no,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. “But this poll shows there are very few of them out there.”
Polls opened at 7 a.m. Tuesday and closed at 8 p.m., although any voter in line at that time was allowed to cast a ballot. The state allows same-day voter registration on election day, permitting Californians to cast a conditional ballot that will be counted if their eligibility is verified.
Minutes after polls opened, Trump posted on Truth Social that “The Unconstitutional Redistricting Vote in California is a GIANT SCAM in that the entire process, in particular the Voting itself, is RIGGED.”
The president, who has not actively campaigned against the proposition aside from a few social media posts, provided no evidence for his allegations. His Department of Justice has said it was sending monitors to polling locations across the state.
Secretary of State Shirley Weber pushed back at Trump’s claims along with similar ones made by the president’s press secretary.
Election workers organize sorted ballots by precinct for the California Statewide Special Election at the Orange County Registrar of Voters in Santa Ana Tuesday.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
“If there are irregularities, what are they? Why won’t they identify them? Where exactly is this fraud?” Weber said in a statement. “Ramblings don’t equate with fact.”
Voters, some in shorts and flip-flops, waited in line for 30 minutes or more outside a voting center in Huntington Beach on Tuesday afternoon.
“Vote no, don’t ruin Huntington Beach!” one man shouted as he left the center.
If the ballot measure is approved, the conservative seaside city would fall into a new congressional district that includes Long Beach, but no longer keeps some Republican-rich communities to the south. The politically divided district is currently represented by Dave Min (D-Irvine), but is designed to become a safer seat for Democrats under the new districts created by Proposition 50.
Huntington Beach resident Luke Walker, 18, spent time researching the arguments for and against Proposition 50 and came down against it because he believes the redesigned districts will ignore residents’ voices.
“You look at the people who will be voting and I don’t think they’ll be properly represented in the new state lines,” said Walker, who predicted that if the ballot measure passes, it will lead to more division. “It’s going to cause more of a rift in society. People are going to start disliking each other even more.”
Sister Theres Tran, Lovers of the Holy Cross-Los Angeles, votes in the California Statewide Special Election at the Orange County Registrar of Voters in Santa Ana Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
DeAyn Van Eyk, 63, also voted against the proposition on Tuesday, believing that Newsom, who is considering running for president in 2028, is using it to further his own political interests.
“It sounds like it’s good for him,” she said. “I totally dislike Newsom. … I don’t like Trump as a person — I think he can be a good leader.”
Among those who voted for the proposition was Huntington Beach resident Miko Vaughn, 48, who said she wanted Democrats to “level the playing field.”
“It’s a temporary thing, but I think it’s important with the changes in Texas that it stays even,” Vaughn said.
Though some see Proposition 50 as a proxy war between Trump and Newsom, Vaughn views it differently and said it’s just “against Trump.”
“I feel like there’s not much we can do individually, so it does feel good to do something,” Vaughn said, adding that she was impressed to see so many people turn out during a non-presidential election.
Californians have been voting for weeks. Registered voters received mail ballots about a month ago, and early voting centers recently opened across the state.
More than 7.2 million Californians — 31% of the state’s 23 million registered voters — had cast ballots as of Tuesday morning before the polls opened, according to a voting tracker run by Democratic redistricting expert Paul Mitchell, who drew the proposed districts on the ballot. Democrats were outpacing Republicans, though GOP voters were believed to be more likely to vote in person Tuesday.
The gap in early voting alarmed GOP leaders and strategists.
Matthew Harper, former Huntington Beach Mayor and former State Assemblyman, votes in the California Statewide Special Election at the Huntington Beach Central Library in Huntington Beach Tuesday.
(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)
“In California, we already know they surrendered,” Steve Bannon, who served as Trump’s chief strategist for several months during his first term in office, said on his podcast over the weekend. “Huntington Beach, California … it is full MAGA, one of the most important parts of Southern California, yet we’re going to get blown out, I don’t know, by 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 points on the massive redistricting Prop. 50.”
Congressional districts traditionally are drawn every decade after the U.S. census. In California, the boundaries are created by an independent commission created by voters in 2010.
But after Trump urged Texas Republicans to alter their House boundaries to boost the number of GOP members in Congress, Newsom and other California Democrats countered by proposing new districts that could add five Democrats to the state’s 52-member delegation.
The high-stakes election attracted tens of millions of dollars and a carousel of prominent politicians, notably former President Obama in support and former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in opposition, who were featured in ads about the ballot measure, including some that aired during the World Series won by the Dodgers.
Democrats who previously championed independent redistricting to remove partisan politics from the process argue that they needed to suspend that political ideal to stop the president from furthering his agenda during his last two years in the White House.
Citing public opposition to immigration raids that began in Los Angeles in June, the military being deployed in American cities, and cuts to nutrition assistance programs for low-income families and healthcare programs for seniors and the disabled, Democrats argue that winning control of Congress in next year’s election is critical to stopping the president’s agenda.
“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,” Obama says in an ad that includes footage of ICE raids. “With Prop. 50, you can stop Republicans in their tracks. Prop. 50 puts our elections back on a level playing field, preserves independent redistricting over the long term, and lets the people decide. Return your ballot today.”
A sign points to a polling station at Culver City City Hall on Tuesday.
(Eric Thayer/Los Angeles Times)
Republicans who oppose the effort countered that Proposition 50 is an affront to the electorate that voted to create an independent redistricting commission.
They want to “take us backwards. This is why it is important for you to vote no on Proposition 50,” Schwarzenegger says in an ad that was filmed when he spoke to USC students. “The Constitution does not start with ‘We, the politicians.’ It starts with ‘We, the people.’ … Democracy — we’ve got to protect it, and we’ve got to go and fight for it.”
Even with passage of the ballot measure, it’s uncertain whether potential Democratic gains in California’s congressional delegation will be enough to offset the number of Republicans elected because of gerrymandering in GOP-led states.
California voters have one big ballot measure to consider this year. Here’s what you need to know about Proposition 50 and how it would impact the state. What is Proposition 50? If passed, it would change California’s congressional district map. Normally the map is drawn by an independent commission, but state Democrats drew *** new map to try and get more members of their party elected to Congress. It’s *** direct response to Texas changing their congressional maps in favor of electing more Republicans. *** yes vote would support changing the maps. The congressional districts will get redrawn in *** way that spreads out likely Democratic voters into areas that are normally solved Republican spots. *** no vote would keep the current maps in place. What are people saying about Prop 50? Well, supporters say it is *** crucial step in keeping President Trump’s power in check and counter his push to get other states to redraw their maps. Governor Gavin Newsom is behind this move. Because Republicans hold the majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives, supporters of this measure say it would limit President Trump and his ability to pass items on his agenda. Opponents who are mostly members of the Republican Party say this is just *** power grab by the Democratic Party that would undermine *** fair election. 5 districts are likely to change from red to blue if Proposition 50 passes. District 1, currently represented by Doug LaMalfa. District 3 is represented by Kevin Kiley. District 22 is represented by David Valadaa. District 41 is currently held by Ken Calver. Lastly, District 48, which is held by Darrell Issa. Election day is November 4th, and ballots have already been mailed out. They must be returned or mailed in by that date for your vote to count.
Special Election Day in Northern California: The latest on voting for Prop 50 redistricting measure
Election Day has arrived for the special election. On Tuesday, Californians will decide whether to temporarily adopt new congressional district maps statewide, as Democratic leaders push to send more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives.Proposition 50, or Prop 50 for short, is part of a larger national fight in which Republicans and Democrats are trying to gerrymander their congressional districts to determine which party controls Congress halfway through President Trump’s term. The proposed maps target five California Republicans in an attempt to offset the five Republicans Texas is aiming to add.(Video Above: What to know about California’s Prop 50)Some communities in Northern California also have other measures or local races to weigh in on, including some measures in El Dorado County and the town of Truckee and races in Plumas County.All polling locations will open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. If you’re still in line when polls close, you should be able to cast your ballot. We’ll continue to update this page with updates from Election Day. Make sure to download our app for the latest breaking news updates with election results. What to know before polls open at 7 a.m.While voters can cast their ballot in person on Election Day, millions of California voters have already mailed in or dropped off their ballot. Here’s how to track your ballot. Here’s a look at early voter turnout across the state.Before heading out the door to vote, check if you are heading to the correct or closest voting location.Find out how to check here.Still need to learn more about Prop 50? Here’s everything to know.For those eager to head to the polls, make sure you know what you can and can’t do when it comes to voting in California. For example, you cannot wear pins, hats, shirts or other visible items that display a candidate’s name, image, logo or information about supporting or opposing a ballot measure. Here are more Election Day dos and don’ts.See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel
Election Day has arrived for the special election.
On Tuesday, Californians will decide whether to temporarily adopt new congressional district maps statewide, as Democratic leaders push to send more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives.
Proposition 50, or Prop 50 for short, is part of a larger national fight in which Republicans and Democrats are trying to gerrymander their congressional districts to determine which party controls Congress halfway through President Trump’s term. The proposed maps target five California Republicans in an attempt to offset the five Republicans Texas is aiming to add.
(Video Above: What to know about California’s Prop 50)
Some communities in Northern California also have other measures or local races to weigh in on, including some measures in El Dorado County and the town of Truckee and races in Plumas County.
All polling locations will open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. If you’re still in line when polls close, you should be able to cast your ballot.
We’ll continue to update this page with updates from Election Day. Make sure to download our app for the latest breaking news updates with election results.
What to know before polls open at 7 a.m.
While voters can cast their ballot in person on Election Day, millions of California voters have already mailed in or dropped off their ballot.
Before heading out the door to vote, check if you are heading to the correct or closest voting location.
Still need to learn more about Prop 50?
For those eager to head to the polls, make sure you know what you can and can’t do when it comes to voting in California.
For example, you cannot wear pins, hats, shirts or other visible items that display a candidate’s name, image, logo or information about supporting or opposing a ballot measure. Here are more Election Day dos and don’ts.
A new poll from Fox News shows Democratic nominee for New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill up 7 percentage points over Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli five days before Election Day.
Why It Matters
The New Jersey gubernatorial election stands as one of the nation’s most closely watched races, with implications for national party strategy and the 2026 midterms.
The contest could also be viewed as a key litmus test for sentiment toward President Donald Trump in the Northeast and a potential indicator of Republican momentum in traditionally Democratic strongholds.
New Jersey has not elected a Republican governor since 2013, when the Garden State reelected former Governor Chris Christie, or voted for a Republican in a presidential race since 1988, when it backed former President George H.W. Bush. A shift in voter sentiment could impact both parties’ approaches beyond 2025.
What To Know
In the poll released on Thursday, Sherrill has 52 percent of the vote opposed to Ciattarelli’s 45 percent. The poll surveyed 956 likely voters from October 24 to October 28 and has a 3 percent margin of error.
The poll shows a shift from an earlier survey by Fox News this month that had Sherrill at 50 percent and Ciattarelli with 45 percent.
Thursday’s poll shows that 64 percent of Sherrill supporters say their vote is to express opposition to Trump, while 35 percent of Ciattarelli supporters say their vote is to express support for the president.
“It’s a cliché, but it’s true, this race is all about turnout, so the big question is whether Trump supporters show up when he’s not on the ballot,” Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, said in the survey. “Sherrill’s supporters seem like they are going to turn out, but the evidence is mixed for those backing Ciattarelli. If the MAGA base comes around during this final weekend, the Democratic advantage narrows considerably.”
Sherrill’s favorability is 54 percent in the new poll, compared to 51 percent earlier this month. Ciattarelli’s favorability is 46 percent compared to 48 percent earlier this month.
What People Are Saying
Trump, on Truth Social this month: “Why would anyone vote for New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, when they want transgender for everybody, men playing in women’s sports, High Crime, and the most expensive Energy prices almost anywhere in the World? VOTE REPUBLICAN for massive Energy Cost reductions, large scale Tax Cuts, and basic Common Sense! Under President Trump, ME, Gasoline will come down to approximately $2 a Gallon, very soon! With the Democrats, you’ll be paying $4, $5, and $6 a Gallon, and your Electric and other Energy costs will, likewise, SOAR. VOTE REPUBLICAN FOR A GREAT AND VERY AFFORDABLE LIFE. All you’ll get from voting Democrat is unrelentingly High Crime, Energy prices through the roof, men playing in women’s sports, and HEARTACHE!”
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek when asked if it is unusual for Trump to play a factor into voters’ decision-making in New Jersey: “It is not unusual. These off-year elections after a presidential election in particular are often at least somewhat a signal of dissatisfaction with the performance of the party in power in the White House. That is why these elections are being looked at closely nationally. They have potential implications for the midterm elections.”
Ciattarelli, on X Thursday: “After 8 years of Phil Murphy’s failures, New Jersey families are paying the price every single day. Failed schools. Handcuffed police officers. Overdevelopment destroying our communities. Higher taxes crushing working families. And my opponent? Endorsed every. single. one of these disasters. I’m running to make New Jersey affordable again. Safe again. We need police officers who can do their jobs — not politicians tying their hands. We need policies that help families — not hurt them. The choice is clear: more of the same failed policies that got us here, or real change that puts New Jersey families first. What’s it going to be, New Jersey? Make your voice heard. Vote for change! Early voting is open until 8pm tonight, and back again tomorrow at 10am.”
Sherrill, on X early Thursday: “The difference between me and Jack is clear as day. I’m going to serve YOU while he only cares to serve the president.”
What Happens Next
The New Jersey gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 4. Early voting is underway across the state. Both campaigns are focused on boosting turnout among undecided voters, independents and key demographics.
The outcome will determine not only the successor to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy but may also set the tone for party strategies in the 2026 congressional midterms.
A Nov. 4 statewide ballot measure pushed by California Democrats to help the party’s efforts to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives and stifle President Trump’s agenda has a substantial lead in a new poll released on Thursday.
Notable in an off-year special election about the arcane and complicated process of redistricting, 71% of likely voters said they had heard a significant amount of information about the ballot measure, according to the poll.
“That’s extraordinary,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the IGS poll. “Even though it’s kind of an esoteric topic that doesn’t affect their daily lives, it’s something voters are paying attention to.”
That may be because roughly $158 million has been donated in less than three months to the main campaign committees supporting and opposing the measure, according to campaign fundraising reports filed with the state last week. Voters in the state have been flooded with political ads.
Californians watching Tuesday night’s World Series game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays saw that firsthand.
In the first minutes of the game, former President Obama, Newsom, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other prominent Democrats spoke in favor of Proposition 50 in an ad that probably cost at least $250,000 to air, according to a Democratic media buyer who is not associated with the campaign.
According to the survey, the breakdown among voters was highly partisan, with more than 9 out of 10 Democrats supporting Proposition 50 and a similar proportion of Republicans opposing it. Among voters who belong to other parties, or identify as “no party preference,” 57% favored the ballot measure, while 39% opposed it.
Only 2% of the likely voters surveyed said they were undecided, which DiCamillo said was highly unusual.
Historically, undecided voters, particularly independents, often end up opposing ballot measures they are uncertain about, preferring to stick with the status quo, he said.
“Usually there was always a rule — look at the undecideds in late-breaking polls, and assume most would vote no,” he said. “But this poll shows there are very few of them out there. Voters have a bead on this one.”
In the voter-rich urban areas of Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay area, Proposition 50 led by wide margins, the poll found. Voters in Orange County, the Inland Empire and the Central Valley were pretty evenly divided.
Redistricting battles are underway in states across the nation, but California’s Proposition 50 has received a major share of national attention and donations. The Newsom committee supporting Proposition 50 has raised far more money than the two main committees opposing it, so much so that the governor this week told supporters to stop sending checks.
The U.S. House of Representatives is controlled by the GOP but is narrowly divided. The party that wins control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections will determine whether Trump can continue enacting his agenda or whether he is the subject of investigations and possibly another impeachment effort.
California’s 52 congressional districts — the most of any state — currently are drawn by a voter-approved independent commission once every decade following the U.S. census.
But after Trump urged GOP leaders in Texas this summer to redraw their districts to bolster the number of Republicans in Congress, Newsom and other California Democrats decided in August to ask voters to allow a rare mid-decade partisan redrawing of the state’s district boundaries. If passed, Proposition 50 could potentially add five more Democrats to the state’s congressional delegation.
Supporters of Proposition 50 have painted their effort as a proxy fight against Trump and his policies that have overwhelmingly affected Californians, such as immigration raids and the deployment of the National Guard on the streets of Los Angeles.
Opponents of the proposition have focused on the mechanics of redistricting, arguing the ballot measure subverts the will of California voters who enacted the independent redistricting commission more than a decade ago.
“The results suggest that Democrats have succeeded in framing the debate surrounding the proposition around support or opposition to President Trump and national Republicans, rather than about voters’ more general preference for nonpartisan redistricting,” Eric Schickler, co-director of IGS, said in a statement.
Early voting data suggest the pro-Proposition 50 message has been successful.
As of Tuesday, nearly 5 million Californians — about 21% of the state’s 23 million registered voters — had cast ballots, according to trackers run by Democratic and Republican strategists.
Democrats greatly outnumber Republicans among the state’s registered voters, and they have outpaced them in returning ballots, 52% to 27%. Voters who do not have a party preference or who support other political parties have returned 21% of the ballots.
The Berkeley/L.A. Times poll findings mirrored recent surveys by the Public Policy Institute of California, CBS News/YouGov and Emerson College.
Among voters surveyed by the Berkeley/L.A. Times poll, 67% of Californians who had already voted supported Proposition 50, while 33% said they had weighed in against the ballot measure.
The proposition also had an edge among those who planned to vote but had not yet cast their ballots, with 57% saying they planned to support the effort and 40% saying they planned to oppose it.
However, 70% of voters who plan to cast ballots in person on Nov. 4, election day, said they would vote against Proposition 50, according to the poll. Less than 3 in 10 who said they would vote at their local polling place said they would support the rare mid-decade redistricting.
These numbers highlight a recent shift in how Americans vote. Historically, Republicans voted by mail early, while Democrats cast ballots on election day. But this dynamic was upended in recent years after Trump questioned the security of early voting and mail voting, including just recently when he criticized Proposition 50.
“No mail-in or ‘Early’ Voting, Yes to Voter ID! Watch how totally dishonest the California Prop Vote is! Millions of Ballots being ‘shipped,’” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. “GET SMART REPUBLICANS, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!!!”
GOP leaders across the state have pushed back at such messaging without calling out the president. Urging Republicans to vote early, they argue that waiting to cast ballots only gives Democrats a greater advantage in California elections.
Among the arguments promoted by the campaigns, likely voters agreed with every one posited by the supporters of Proposition 50, notably that the ballot measure would help Democrats win control of the House, while standing up to Trump and his attempts to rig the 2026 election, according to the poll. But they also agreed that the ballot measure would further diminish the power of the GOP in California, and that they didn’t trust partisan state lawmakers to draw congressional districts.
The Berkeley IGS/Times poll surveyed 8,141 California registered voters online in English and Spanish from Oct. 20 to 27. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction in the overall sample, and larger numbers for subgroups.
But that fourth-quarter boost may prove underwhelming this year, at least if consumers’ predictions about their own spending habits are to be trusted. In a new survey of more than 1,000 American adults—conducted in late September by the market research firm HarrisX, and including questions developed by Inc.—40 percent of respondents said they anticipate their holiday gift budget will be smaller than it was last year. That’s compared to 21 percent who expect it to grow, and another 32 percent who expect it to stay more or less the same.
That hesitancy is more pronounced among women than men—with 44 percent of women anticipating less spending versus 35 percent of men—and grows steeper with age, rising from 27 percent in Gen Z all the way up to 51 percent in the Silent Generation, and increasing with each successive age cohort.
“Men seem to be having the high time of it, and women seem to be really concerned about the economy,” said Mark Penn, chairman and CEO of Stagwell, the parent company behind HarrisX. “It is really kind of a tale of two cities.”
An Inc.com Featured Presentation
That may partially be a reflection of partisan differences between men and women, he added, as Democrats tend to be more pessimistic about the economy than Republicans, and women are leaning increasingly liberal.
The upshot for retailers prepping for the holiday gift season? Put the men’s items closer to the front of the stores, Penn suggests, and move the women’s clothing a bit further back.
The HarrisX polling found that those gendered dynamics extend beyond just Christmas gifts, too. When asked whether their personal financial situation had gotten better or worse over the last six months, 42 percent of men said things have gotten better (versus 30 percent saying worse), whereas among women, the split was 20 percent better and 38 percent worse.
Overall, though, there’s a level of ambivalence in the polling data. When asked about how their overall household spending has changed in the past six months, 29 percent of respondents said it has increased and 29 percent said it has decreased. The remaining 42 percent reported that their habits have pretty much stayed the same.
“This poll reflects neither euphoria nor dejection,” Penn said. “It’s actually sort of in the middle of things. Americans remain somewhat pessimistic about the economy, but they’ve been that way for a very long time.”
For those who said they’ve spent more, the leading reason why was a “desire to enjoy life/spend more in the present” (23 percent)—while more than half of those who reported decreasing their spending blamed it on inflation.
Yet in almost every specific bucket of spending that the poll asked respondents about—restaurants, clothes, consumer tech, entertainment and travel—more respondents said their household had cut back on spending over the last six months than the number who reported having increased it. Only for groceries did more respondents raise their budgets (37 percent) rather than shrink them (20 percent)–which makes sense given that the steepest cuts of all were to dining out, which 47 percent of respondents said they’ve reduced.
Indeed, 55 percent of survey respondents said they’ve swapped out some of their usual product purchases for cheaper alternatives over the last six months—and 31 percent anticipate reducing household spending over the next six months, versus 20 percent expecting to increase it.
Travel is the vertical for which the largest chunk of respondents, 48 percent, said they plan to cut spending going forward, while groceries was again the only category for which more people are planning to increase spending over the next six months (30 percent) than decrease it (22 percent).
Penn cautioned that respondents’ predictions about their future spending behavior may be a better indicator of how they feel about the current economy, rather than what they’ll actually do in the future.
“They don’t really know how they’re going to feel six months from now,” he says. “Six months in the American economy is a long time. In six months, we could be in a recession or we could be doing 3 percent growth and [have] lower interest rates.”
High School Playbook Game of the Week Poll: Oct. 24, 2025
Where should KCRA 3 go for the Game of the Week for Week 10 on Friday, Oct. 24?
High school football is back for 2025 and we could use your help, once again, to produce our High School Playbook show. Where should KCRA 3 go for the Game of the Week for Week 10 on Friday, Oct. 24? The games for consideration are:El Camino vs. Casa RobleInderkum vs. Rio AmericanoWheatland vs. CenterPleasant Grove vs. Elk GroveThe poll below closes at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 21.(Mobile users, click here if you don’t see the poll.)| MORE | Share your Fan Fits at games all season long. Watch our High School Playbook show Fridays on the KCRA 3 News at 11 p.m.
High school football is back for 2025 and we could use your help, once again, to produce our High School Playbook show.
Where should KCRA 3 go for the Game of the Week for Week 10 on Friday, Oct. 24?
The games for consideration are:
El Camino vs. Casa Roble
Inderkum vs. Rio Americano
Wheatland vs. Center
Pleasant Grove vs. Elk Grove
The poll below closes at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 21.
Once the heart of President Donald Trump’s political base, the Midwest — the region he promised to revive with factory jobs and “America First” trade policies — is showing signs of disillusionment.
The latest TIPP Insights poll, conducted between September 30 and October 2, found Trump’s favorability in the Midwest at 40 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, one of his weakest showings nationwide. The decline is striking given that Trump has long positioned himself as a champion of blue-collar workers and has frequently touted his record of reviving the region’s industrial economy.
“I think of the Midwest as quintessentially the most ‘purple’ or swingy region in national politics,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek. “With that, it’s not too surprising to me that Trump’s approval there, -9, is roughly in line with where he is nationally.”
Trump’s highest favorability was recorded in the Northeast (47 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable) — an unexpected result for one of the nation’s most liberal regions. He also performed well in the South (46 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable), where Republican registration remains strong.
The West was Trump’s least favorable region, with 38 percent viewing him positively and 50 percent negatively.
The Midwest was central to Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign. He won eight of the 12 Midwestern states, flipping both Michigan and Wisconsin — two states he had narrowly lost in 2020. In Wisconsin, Trump won 49.6 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris’s 48.7 percent, while in Michigan he became the first Republican to carry the state twice since Ronald Reagan.
His choice of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate underscored the region’s political importance. Announcing the pick, Trump said Vance “will be strongly focused on … the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond.”
At the time, Anthony Zurcher, the BBC’s North America correspondent, wrote that “the pick suggests Trump knows this election will be won and lost in a handful of industrial Midwest battleground states.”
And ahead of that announcement, Angelia Wilson, a politics professor at the University of Manchester, England, told Newsweek: “Any reasonable political strategy points to Vance and the need to ensure a solid win in Ohio and the Rustbelt.”
Trump’s Midwest Promise
Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump returned repeatedly to the theme that only he could restore the region’s lost industrial power. In Saginaw, Michigan, he vowed to make the state once again the “car capital of the world,” blasting what he called “energy policies that are stripping jobs” from American workers. “Michigan, more than any other state, has lost 60 percent of your automobile business over the years,” he said.
In Mosinee, Wisconsin, Trump leaned on trade threats as a key policy tool. Speaking at a rally, he warned of “unprecedented tariffs” against foreign competitors and argued that immigrants were displacing U.S. workers — framing his agenda as a defense of the industrial Midwest, Reuters reported.
And in one of his most direct economic moves, Trump threatened 200 percent tariffs on John Deere if the agricultural giant shifted production to Mexico, a signal to Midwestern manufacturers that his “America First” stance still applied to them.
Tariffs, Inflation, and the New Economic Anxiety
But while Trump’s message of protectionism once resonated deeply across the Midwest, cracks are beginning to show. Many farmers and manufacturers are now feeling the pinch of tariffs that have reduced exports and driven down crop prices.
“There have been constant headlines of farmers being caught in the middle of Trump’s tariff fights, so that might be an especially salient issue in the Midwest,” Coleman said.
Trump has dramatically expanded U.S. tariffs since returning to office, marking one of the most sweeping protectionist shifts in decades. In February 2025, he imposed new duties of 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on Chinese imports, citing national security concerns related to drug trafficking and border security, according to a White House fact sheet.
Two months later, Trump issued Executive Order 14257, known as “Liberation Day,” introducing a 10 percent baseline tariff on nearly all imports and authorizing higher duties — in some cases up to 50 percent — on goods from countries accused of unfair trade practices. The order also revoked the de minimis exemption that had allowed low-value imports to enter the U.S. tariff-free, and expanded tariffs under existing laws such as Section 232 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The measures targeted key industries including autos, steel and aluminum.
The administration has defended the tariffs as essential to rebuilding American manufacturing and protecting domestic jobs. But economists have warned of steep costs. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated the tariffs could reduce long-run GDP by six percent and lower wages by five percent, costing a typical middle-income household about $22,000 in lifetime income losses. The group also projected that the tariffs could raise between $4.5 and $5.2 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade — gains that could be offset by inflation and supply chain disruptions.
For farmers, tariffs have been a thorn in their side since 2017, when Trump first imposed tariffs on key trading partners.
Since then, American farmers have struggled with the loss of China as the top buyer of U.S. soybeans and a major market for corn. Exports of soybeans — America’s largest grain export by value — recently fell to a 20-year low, deepening fears that China may not purchase any U.S. grain this season.
“With [tariffs] in place, we are not competitive with soybeans from Brazil,” Virginia Houston, director of government affairs at the American Soybean Association, told The Guardian. “No market can match China’s demand for soybeans. Right now, there is a 20 percent retaliatory duty from China.”
Trump has said little publicly about the impact on farmers, though in August he demanded on Truth Social that China quadruple its soybean purchases. Chinese officials have instead pledged to boost domestic production by 38 percent by 2034, and U.S. farm groups say no new Chinese orders have been placed for the upcoming season.
Despite the financial pain, many rural voters continue to back Trump, emphasizing that their support isn’t determined by a single issue like tariffs.
“Tariffs are probably something that will help in the long run,” Ohio farmer Brian Harbage, told The Guardian, acknowledging current export difficulties and economic uncertainty.
To ease the strain, the Trump administration included $60 billion in farm subsidies in its latest tax bill, but critics argue the money favors large producers over family farms. Meanwhile, falling commodity prices, smaller cattle herds, and declining ethanol production have further weakened the sector.
“The farm economy is in a much tougher place than where we were in 2018,” Houston said. “Prices have gone down while inputs – seed, fertilizer, chemicals, land and equipment – continue to go up.”
Harbage said if Trump visited his farm, his message would be simple: “The exports is number one. That’s the number one fix. We have to get rid of what we’re growing, or we have to be able to use it. China, Mexico and Canada – we export $83 billion worth of commodities to them a year. So if they’re not buying, we’re stuck with our crop.”
Renewable Energy Rift
Trump’s opposition to renewable energy subsidies is also creating unease among farmers.
In Iowa, where nearly two-thirds of electricity comes from wind and more than 50 wind-related companies operate, the end of federal incentives under Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” has thrown the industry into turmoil. The cuts have imperiled $22 billion in wind investments and tens of thousands of jobs tied to wind manufacturing and land leases. Wind farms are the top taxpayer in a third of Iowa’s counties, contributing up to 55 percent of local property taxes and $91.4 million in annual lease payments to farmers, according to Power Up Iowa.
Farmers and local officials warn that Trump’s policies threaten this economic lifeline. “I don’t know how anybody in good faith could vote against alternative energy if they’re elected by the people in Iowa,” Fort Madison Mayor Matt Mohrfeld, told Politico, calling the cuts “a crucial mistake.”
Republicans argue that wind and solar are now “mature industries” that no longer need government help. But clean energy developers and local leaders say the rollback is already causing uncertainty, job losses, and halted projects — including the shutdown of Iowa wind manufacturer TPI Composites, which cited “industry-wide pressures” after losing federal support.
Trump Energy Secretary Chris Wright has argued that heavy federal government spending on renewable energy is “nonsensical.”
Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears trails Democratic former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger by 10 points in the race for the gubernatorial seat in Virginia, a new poll from Emerson College shows on Thursday.
Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email for additional comment.
Why It Matters
The 2025 Virginia governor’s race offers a pivotal test for both parties ahead of next year’s midterms. Virginia, which has trended Democratic in recent presidential elections, saw Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin secure a narrow victory in 2021, signaling the state’s battleground status. How Democrats fare in efforts to reclaim the governor’s office could preview a national pattern and influence party strategies as the GOP strives to maintain control of the House and Senate while Democrats push for significant gains after a disappointing 2024.
What To Know
In the poll, Earle-Sears received 42 percent of the vote compared to Spanberger’s 52 percent. In a January survey by the pollster, the lieutenant governor garnered 41 percent and the former congresswoman won 42 percent, a noticeable swing in favor of Democrats.
The poll surveyed 725 likely Virginia voters on September 28 to September 29 and has a 3.6 percent margin of error.
According to an A2 Insights poll conducted from September 26 to September 28, Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent), the closest showing between the two in months.
The Emerson College poll also shows Spanberger with a 51 percent favorability rating versus a 38 percent unfavorable rating. Earle-Sears landed a 42 percent favorability score compared to a 44 percent unfavorable mark.
What People Are Saying
Spanberger, on X Thursday: “Virginians are already facing rising costs, and now — due to Trump’s government shutdown — 300,000+ Virginians may lose their paychecks. Now more than ever, Virginians deserve a Governor who will stand up for their jobs and lower costs — not one who only puts the President first.”
Earle-Sears, on X Wednesday: “Abigail Spanberger is extreme—on the border, on sanctuary for violent illegals, on letting men into girls’ locker rooms. Every position she takes puts Virginians in harm’s way.”
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email: “This would be a big reversal and loss for the Republicans. Youngkin’s victory four years ago was a similar loss for the Democrats. The current lead bodes well for the Democrats in November. It may reflect how the loss of the jobs of federal workers who live in Virginia and especially dissatisfaction with Trump’s actions and policies more broadly may have serious repercussions for Republicans in the governor’s race—and for Republicans in Virginia in 2026.”
What Happens Next
The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election is set for November 4. Amid the tightening of poll margins and fluctuating voter sentiment, both candidates will intensify their campaigns as Election Day nears. Continued polling and shifts in campaign strategy may further influence the race’s trajectory.
Update 10/2/25, 11:51 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Shapiro.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro held a lead over potential Republican challengers in the first public poll of the state’s 2026 gubernatorial race.
Newsweek reached out to Shapiro and the two Republicans included in the poll, Treasurer Stacy Garrity and state Senator Doug Mastriano, for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state roughly divided between Democrats and Republicans. It has swung between both parties in recent elections, backing President Donald Trump last November but voting for former President Joe Biden in 2020.
Shapiro, first elected in 2022, remains popular in the state, but Republicans are hoping to make the race competitive. The new poll from Quinnipiac University, however, underscores Shapiro’s strong approval among the state’s voters and suggests he may be favored in the midterms.
What To Know
Shapiro will be up for reelection next November and has already drawn a challenge from Garrity, who has received the endorsement of the state’s Republican Party and has announced her candidacy. Mastriano, who lost to Shapiro in 2022, has also been floated as a potential candidate but has not officially made a campaign announcement.
Shapiro defeated Mastriano by about 15 points in 2022 (57 percent to 42 percent), but Garrity is seen as a potentially stronger opponent, having already won statewide—including in 2020, when she eked out a victory despite Democrats winning other statewide races.
The Quinnipiac University poll showed Shapiro up 16 points against Garrity (55 percent to 39 percent), while he led Mastriano by 17 points (56 percent to 39 percent).
Shapiro enjoys a strong approval rating among Pennsylvanians, according to the poll. In total, 60 percent of the state’s voters view his tenure positively, while only 28 percent view him negatively. Among independents, a critical voting group in such a competitive state, 66 percent gave him positive marks, while only 20 percent disapprove of his time in office.
The poll surveyed 1,579 registered voters from September 25 to September 29, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Shapiro is viewed as a rising star in the party and is considered a potential 2028 presidential contender by Democrats, who see his strong electoral record in Pennsylvania, a must-win state in presidential elections, as a critical asset against a Republican. The poll found that he would lead Vice President JD Vance by 10 points in the state.
Whether he can win over enough voters in the party’s presidential primary, however, is yet to be seen. Polls suggest that voters are considering other well-known options, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom or former Vice President Kamala Harris, both of whom are also considered potential candidates.
What People Are Saying
University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy wrote in the polling memo: “Governor Josh Shapiro clinches an enviable 60 percent job approval and leaves his two potential gubernatorial challengers in the rear-view mirror in a very early look at Pennsylvania’s 2026 gubernatorial race.”
Democratic influencer Harry Sisson wrote on X: “Democratic Governor of PA Josh Shapiro remains wildly popular in his state. People love that he’s focused on hard working Americans. This is how we win people back and beat MAGA.”
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as Likely Democratic.
Obviously, both things can’t be true, so which is it?
That depends on which of the polls you choose to believe.
Political junkies, and the news outlets that service their needs, abhor a vacuum. So there’s no lack of soundings that purport to show just where Californians’ heads are at a mere six weeks before election day — which, in truth, is not all that certain.
Newsom’s pollster issued results showing Prop. 50 winning overwhelming approval. A UC Berkeley/L.A. Times survey showed a much closer contest, with support below the vital 50% mark. Others give the measure a solid lead.
Not all polls are created equal.
“It really matters how a poll is done,” said Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at the Pew Research Center, one of the country’s top-flight polling organizations. “That’s especially true today, when response rates are so low [and] it’s so difficult to reach people, especially by telephone. You really do have to consider how it’s done, where it comes from, who did it, what their motivation is.”
Longtime readers of this space, if any exist, know how your friendly columnist feels about horse-race polls. Our best advice remains the same it’s always been: Ignore them.
Realizing, however, the sun will keep rising and setting, that tides will ebb and flow, that pollsters and pundits will continue issuing their prognostications to an eager and ardent audience, here are some suggestions for how to assay their output.
The most important thing to remember is that polls are not gospel truth, flawless forecasts or destiny carved in implacable stone. Even the best survey is nothing more than an educated guess at what’s likely to happen.
That said, there are ways to evaluate the quality of surveys and determine which are best consumed with a healthy shaker of salt and which should be dismissed altogether.
Given the opportunity, take a look at the methodology — it’s usually there in the fine print — which includes the number of people surveyed, the duration of the poll and whether interviews were done in more than one language.
Size matters.
“When you’re trying to contact people at random, you’re getting certain segments of the public, rather than the general population,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the nonpartisan Berkeley IGS Poll and a collaborator with The Times. “So what needs to happen in order for a survey to be representative of the overall population … you need large samples.”
Which are expensive and the reason some polls skimp on the number of people they interview.
The most conscientious pollsters invest considerable time and effort figuring out how to model their voter samples — that is, how to best reflect the eventual composition of the electorate. Once they finish their interviews, they weight the result to see that it includes the proper share of men and women, young and old, and other criteria based on census data.
Then pollsters might adjust those results to match the percentage of each group they believe will turn out for a given election.
The more people a pollster interviews, the greater the likelihood of achieving a representative sample.
That’s why the duration of a survey is also something to consider. The longer a poll is conducted — or out in the field, as they say in the business — the greater the chances of reflecting the eventual turnout.
It’s also important in a polyglot state like California that a poll is not conducted solely in English. To do so risks under-weighting an important part of the electorate; a lack of English fluency shouldn’t be mistaken for a lack of political engagement.
“There’s no requirement that a person be able to speak English in order to vote,” said Keeter, of the Pew Research Center. “And in the case of some populations, particularly immigrant groups, that have been in the United States for a long time, they may be very well-established voters but still not be proficient in English to the level of being comfortable taking a survey.”
It’s also important to know how a poll question is phrased and, in the case of a ballot measure, how it describes the matter voters are being asked to decide. How closely does the survey track the ballot language? Are there any biases introduced into the poll? (“Would you support this measure knowing its proponents abuse small animals and promote gum disease?”)
Something else to watch for: Was the poll conducted by a political party, or for a candidate or group pushing a particular agenda? If so, be very skeptical. They have every reason to issue selective or one-sided findings.
Transparency is key. A good pollster will show his or her work, as they used to say in the classroom. If they won’t, there’s good reason to question their findings, and well you should.
A sensible person wouldn’t put something in their body without being 100% certain of its content. Treat your brain with the same care.
For a second straight year, we are asking YOU the fans to help us pick the second game featured in Friday Night Hits.It’s the “You Pick 2” poll, vote for which matchup you would like to see as the second game featured on Friday Night Hits.The poll will be open until 5 p.m. on Wednesday.The WESH 2 Sports team will announce which matchup received the most votes in the “You Pick 2” poll live on-air.Game of the WeekOur Game of the Week for Week 4 will be Jones at Edgewater. It’s a battle between two of Central Florida’s top programs. The Fighting Tigers fresh off a trip to the state championship game but trying to bounce back after falling to Evans last week. Meantime, the Eagles are finding their way under new head coach Patrick Browning, starting off the season a perfect 3-0. You Pick 2 PollHere are the Week 4 options for the You Pick 2 Poll:Dr. Phillips at OcoeeSpruce Creek at MainlandWest Orange at Boone >> Vote here if you cannot see the poll
ORLANDO, Fla. —
For a second straight year, we are asking YOU the fans to help us pick the second game featured in Friday Night Hits.
It’s the “You Pick 2” poll, vote for which matchup you would like to see as the second game featured on Friday Night Hits.
The poll will be open until 5 p.m. on Wednesday.
The WESH 2 Sports team will announce which matchup received the most votes in the “You Pick 2” poll live on-air.
Game of the Week
Our Game of the Week for Week 4 will be Jones at Edgewater.
It’s a battle between two of Central Florida’s top programs. The Fighting Tigers fresh off a trip to the state championship game but trying to bounce back after falling to Evans last week. Meantime, the Eagles are finding their way under new head coach Patrick Browning, starting off the season a perfect 3-0.
You Pick 2 Poll
Here are the Week 4 options for the You Pick 2 Poll:
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