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  • War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries | CNN Politics

    War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    A Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in thousands of casualties among Chinese, United States, Taiwanese and Japanese forces, and it would be unlikely to result in a victory for Beijing, according to a prominent independent Washington think tank, which conducted war game simulations of a possible conflict that is preoccupying military and political leaders in Asia and Washington.

    A war over Taiwan could leave a victorious US military in as crippled a state as the Chinese forces it defeated.

    At the end of the conflict, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific and China’s modern navy, which is the largest in the world, would be in “shambles.”

    Those are among the conclusions the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made after running what it claims is one of the most extensive war-game simulations ever conducted on a possible conflict over Taiwan, the democratically ruled island of 24 million that the Chinese Communist Party claims as part of its sovereign territory despite never having controlled it.

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping has refused to rule out the use of military force to bring the island under Beijing’s control.

    CNN reviewed an advance copy of the report – titled “The First Battle of the Next War” – on the two dozen war scenarios run by CSIS, which said the project was necessary because previous government and private war simulations have been too narrow or too opaque to give the public and policymakers a true look at how conflict across the Taiwan Strait might play out.

    “There’s no unclassified war game out there looking at the US-China conflict,” said Mark Cancian, one of the three project leaders and a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Of the games that are unclassified, they’re usually only done once or twice.”

    CSIS ran this war game 24 times to answer two fundamental questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?

    The likely answers to those two questions are no and enormous, the CSIS report said.

    “The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” the report said. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    “China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

    Japan expands defense of its southern front line to counter China (April 2022)

    The scenarios paint a bleak future for Taiwan, even if a Chinese invasion doesn’t succeed.

    “While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report. The island’s army would suffer about 3,500 casualties, and all 26 destroyers and frigates in its navy will be sunk, the report said.

    Japan is likely to lose more than 100 combat aircraft and 26 warships while US military bases on its home territory come under Chinese attack, the report found.

    But CSIS said it did not want its report to imply a war over Taiwan “is inevitable or even probable.”

    “The Chinese leadership might adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure, or economic coercion against Taiwan,” it said.

    Dan Grazier, a senior defense policy fellow at the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), sees an outright Chinese invasion of Taiwan as extremely unlikely. Such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports upon which the Chinese economy relies for its very survival, Grazier told CNN, and interrupting this trade risks the collapse of the Chinese economy in short order. China relies on imports of food and fuel to drive their economic engine, Grazier said, and they have little room to maneuver.

    “The Chinese are going to do everything they can in my estimation to avoid a military conflict with anybody,” Grazier said. To challenge the United States for global dominance, they’ll use industrial and economic power instead of military force.

    But Pentagon leaders have labeled China as America’s “pacing threat,” and last year’s China Military Power report mandated by Congress said “the PLA increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait, to include increased flights into Taiwan’s claimed air defense identification zone and conducting exercises focused on the potential seizure of one of Taiwan’s outlying islands.”

    In August, the visit of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island prompted a wide-ranging display of PLA military might, which included sending missiles over the island as well as into the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

    Since then, Beijing has stepped up aggressive military pressure tactics on the island, sending fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water separating Taiwan and China and into the island’s air defense identification zone – a buffer of airspace commonly referred to as an ADIZ.

    And speaking about Taiwan at the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping won large applause when he said China would “strive for peaceful reunification” — but then gave a grim warning, saying “we will never promise to renounce the use of force and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”

    The Biden administration has been steadfast in its support for the island as provided by the Taiwan Relations Act, which said Washington will provide the island with the means to defend itself without committing US troops to that defense.

    The recently signed National Defense Authorization Act commits the US to a program to modernize Taiwan’s military and provides for $10 billion of security assistance over five years, a strong sign of long-term bipartisan support for the island.

    Biden, however, has said more than once that US military personnel would defend Taiwan if the Chinese military were to launch an invasion, even as the Pentagon has insisted there is no change in Washington’s “One China” policy.

    Under the “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the self-governing island.

    “Wars happen even when objective analysis might indicate that the attacker might not be successful,” said Cancian.

    The CSIS report said for US troops to prevent China from ultimately taking control of Taiwan, there were four constants that emerged among the 24 war game iterations it ran:

    Taiwan’s ground forces must be able to contain Chinese beachheads; the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations; the US must have long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the PLA Navy from afar and “en masse”; and the US needs to fully arm Taiwan before shooting starts and jump into any conflict with its own forces immediately.

    “There is no ‘Ukraine model’ for Taiwan,” the report said, referring to how US and Western aid slowly trickled in to Ukraine well after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor started and no US or NATO troops are actively fighting against Russia.

    “Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

    Washington will need to begin acting soon if it’s to meet some of the CSIS recommendations for success in a Taiwan conflict, the think tank said.

    Those include, fortifying US bases in Japan and Guam against Chinese missile attacks; moving its naval forces to smaller and more survivable ships; prioritizing submarines; prioritizing sustainable bomber forces over fighter forces; but producing more cheaper fighters; and pushing Taiwan toward a similar strategy, arming itself with more simple weapons platforms rather than expensive ships that are unlikely to survive a Chinese first strike.

    Those policies would make winning less costly for the US military, but the toll would still be high, the CSIS report said.

    “The United States might win a pyrrhic victory, suffering more in the long run than the ‘defeated’ Chinese.”

    “Victory is not everything,” the report said.

    China Amb Nicholas Burns vpx

    Breakdown in US-China relations a ‘manufactured crisis,’ US ambassador says (August 2022)

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  • House GOP select panel will target DOJ and FBI and their ‘ongoing criminal investigations’ | CNN Politics

    House GOP select panel will target DOJ and FBI and their ‘ongoing criminal investigations’ | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    House Republicans are gearing up to investigate the Department of Justice and the FBI, including their “ongoing criminal investigations,” setting up a showdown with the Biden administration and law enforcement agencies over their criminal probes, particularly those into former President Donald Trump.

    The new House GOP majority has proposed that a new select subcommittee be formed – a result of one of the key concessions House Speaker Kevin McCarthy made to his opposition to secure the gavel.

    In addition to having the power to investigate all ongoing criminal probes of the executive branch, the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government would also “be authorized to receive information available to the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence,” giving it access to the most highly classified information in Congress, according to the proposal.

    An earlier draft of the select subcommittee proposal gave it less power and was much narrower in scope: It would have only been able to focus on the FBI, DOJ and the Department of Homeland Security, and made no mention of getting access to ongoing criminal investigations.

    Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas, an early holdout against McCarthy who became a key negotiator for the hard-liners, said on Fox News that changes made to the select subcommittee proposal, particularly seeking a budget as big as the January 6 select committee, was key to getting those initially opposed to McCarthy on board.

    “So we got more resources, more specificity, more power to go after this recalcitrant Biden administration,” Roy said Friday. “That’s really important.”

    The select subcommittee would be under the jurisdiction of the House Judiciary Committee, which is partly why Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, the committee’s incoming chairman, was crucial to the negotiations last week that led to the proposal. As Judiciary chair, Jordan would oversee the subpoenas of the select panel. By contrast, the House select committee that investigated the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol made subpoena decisions unilaterally. Jordan has foreshadowed that he will make investigating assertions that the FBI and DOJ have been politicized a key focus of the House Judiciary Committee as chairman.

    “We’re going to get into what’s going on at the FBI,” Jordan said Sunday on Fox.

    If the proposal passes, McCarthy would be able to select 13 lawmakers to serve on the subcommittee, five of whom would be chosen in consultation with House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries. McCarthy would also pick the subcommittee chair. This was similar to the setup of the January 6 select committee, for which then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gave then-Minority Leader McCarthy five spots to fill. But when Pelosi rejected two of McCarthy’s picks, the California Republican pulled all his members from serving on the panel.

    Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky said Friday on Fox, “It looks like I will probably be on that committee but I can’t say that I will run it.”

    Another Republican, Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry, who is being investigated by federal prosecutors for his role in trying to impede the transfer of presidential power in 2020, would not rule out serving on the select panel.

    “Why should I be limited? Why should anybody be limited just because someone has made an accusation?” Perry, who chairs the hard-line conservative Freedom Caucus, said Sunday in an interview on ABC’s “This Week.” “Everybody in America is innocent until proven otherwise.”

    The proposal for the subcommittee panel is included in the House rules package, which establishes the rules and committees for the 118th Congress, and is set to receive a vote on Monday.

    The select subcommittee would be required to issue a final report by January 2, 2025, and dissolve shortly after.

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  • Analysis: The speaker fight is over but the chaos is just beginning | CNN Politics

    Analysis: The speaker fight is over but the chaos is just beginning | CNN Politics

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    A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.



    CNN
     — 

    This is not the end of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s nightmare, rather just the beginning.

    Having won the coveted job, the California Republican has leveled up to a new series of challenges with higher stakes for all Americans, and less room for error for a man who needed 15 tries to get the gavel.

    Related: Read this profile from McCarthy’s hometown

    This week Republicans must try to coalesce around the concessions McCarthy made and pass a package of rules to govern the House for the next two years. It’s an open question whether the party’s moderates, such as they are, will all buy in to the cut, cut, cut mentality McCarthy has agreed to.

    Unlike the Senate, which has standing rules that carry over from year to year, the House adopts a new rules package for each Congress. This year, in particular, as they take over from Democratic control, Republicans want to make their mark in the rules package. The Rules Committee has posted a text and summary of the proposed rule changes.

    Some of the new elements include things that amount to framing – replacing “pay as you go” language for budget matters with “cut as you go.”

    Other elements could have more concrete consequences, like forcing specific votes to raise the debt ceiling and enacting spending cuts before the debt ceiling is raised. That debate will come to a head in the coming months as the government runs out of authority to add to the $31 trillion national debt.

    On Sunday, Republicans all said they would try to avoid cutting defense and Medicare spending, which leaves a relatively small portion of the federal budget – think the Environmental Protection Agency and other regulatory arms of the government – from which to carve out spending.

    The other way, besides spending cuts, for the government to cut down on deficit spending, is to raise taxes. The proposed rules reinstate a requirement that a House supermajority of 3/5, rather than a simple majority, sign off on any tax increases.

    If McCarthy fails to live up to these promises, the rules also allow for any member to force a vote on a “motion to vacate the chair” – ousting him from the speaker’s chair – at any time. It would only take a handful of Republicans, along with all Democrats, to oust him.

    This rules package effectively limits his ability to negotiate with the Democrats who run the rest of the federal government. McCarthy can marshal House Republicans to vote for steep spending cuts, but his greatest difficulty will be in finding legislation that can pass the House and not be immediately rejected by the Senate or vetoed by President Joe Biden.

    Just like with his quest to be speaker, McCarthy will rely only on Republicans to pass the rules package and he can only afford to lose four.

    Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas has already said he will oppose the rules package because he worries it will lead to cuts in defense spending.

    “How am I going to look at our allies in the eye and say, ‘I need you to increase your defense budget, but yet America is going to decrease ours,’” Gonzales said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

    Another Republican, Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, said on the same program that she likes a lot of the rules package, but she is “on the fence” about it because it was formulated behind closed doors with fringe Republicans.

    It’s an irony both that the rules package is perceived as being hashed out behind closed doors and that those who held out on supporting McCarthy argued they were achieving a path to a more open government.

    We don’t yet know all of the concessions McCarthy made to bring the ultra conservatives along. Rep. Chip Roy of Texas denied during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” that he had been promised a position on the powerful Rules Committee, for instance. He said that would ultimately be up to the rest of the Republican conference.

    There was also some question about how McCarthy would enforce a pledge to cap spending for the 2024 fiscal year at 2022 spending levels.

    A main issue for Roy was that individual members should be able to offer amendments and get votes on spending bills on the House floor.

    Leaders from both parties have barred such amendments by the full House in order to pass bundled-up spending bills. They have relied on debate in the Appropriations and Authorization committees.

    Roy is among the critics who refer to Republican and Democratic leaders as the “uniparty” for this reason.

    “Too often bills are cooked up with handful of people, they’re brought through with the Rules Committee, jammed through, put on the floor and you have to vote yes or no,” Roy told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday. “A little temporary conflict is necessary in this town.”

    He wants more of the openness and free form debate – the kind that Americans saw on the House floor during the speaker fight – to be present in spending discussions.

    “You say, ‘Well, are we going to have this kind of conflict going forward?’ I hope so,” Roy said.

    The idea that these debates are necessary was even being adopted by critics of the drawn-out speaker fight, like Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas.

    “The more that you actually have everyone involved in it, the less likely it is that it gets blown up at the end,” Crenshaw told Tapper.

    But things will get increasingly difficult for McCarthy, and maybe the country, when he needs to negotiate with Senate Democrats and Biden – and also appease the fringe that does not mind a trip to the brink.

    Roy urged party leaders to work quickly and openly to find a path to raise the debt ceiling, rather than waiting until there’s a must-do-immediately moment.

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  • McCarthy speaker saga shows Trump is far from untouchable ahead of 2024 | CNN Politics

    McCarthy speaker saga shows Trump is far from untouchable ahead of 2024 | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Kevin McCarthy’s seven-year-plus dream to become House speaker finally became reality early Saturday morning. The California Republican’s tumultuous journey concluded after six Republican holdouts voted “present,” allowing him to win on the 15th ballot with a lower majority threshold.

    McCarthy credited Donald Trump for his support in the speaker’s race, and the former president was quick to bask in the glory of McCarthy’s victory.

    Make no mistake, though: McCarthy’s struggle to win the speaker’s gavel is only the latest indication that Trump’s brand among Republicans has been significantly weakened. Trump is no doubt still a powerful presence in the GOP, but he’s very vulnerable in his bid to win the Republican presidential nomination for a third time.

    Let’s state the facts of what unfolded. McCarthy was backed by Trump from the beginning in his speakership campaign. McCarthy trumpeted Trump’s endorsement, and Trump, in turn, made his preference well known.

    It would be difficult to imagine Republicans defying Trump at the height of his power. But that’s exactly what happened this time around. Despite the many appeals from Trump, this year’s speakership process was the longest in over 150 years. It was the first time in a century that more than one ballot had been needed to elect the speaker.

    To the point of Trump’s waning power, just look at the Republicans who delayed McCarthy from becoming speaker on January 3. They were almost all hardcore Trump believers. Of those who were serving in the last Congress, just one (Rep. Chip Roy) had voted to certify Joe Biden’s presidential win.

    The lawmakers in this group who had voting records are from the very conservative part of the GOP. This is where Trump’s strength among Republicans had been most evident at the end of his presidency. Yet, Trump’s expressed support for McCarthy wasn’t enough to keep these hardcore conservatives in line.

    These Republicans, it seems, didn’t fear Trump like they once might have. And when you look at the polling, that lack of trepidation makes sense.

    Right now, Trump isn’t beloved by Republican voters. We see this in the percentage of Republicans who hold a strongly favorable (or very favorable) rating of him. Strongly favorable means you don’t merely like a politician, you love him.

    Trump’s strongly favorable rating in a Fox News poll last month was 43% among Republican voters. That’s good, but it’s not great for a universally known politician. Ron DeSantis’ strongly favorable rating in the same poll was 40%, even though 16% of Republicans had no opinion of the Florida governor.

    Trump’s strongly favorable rating is way down from where it was at the time of the 2020 election. In a late October 2020 Fox News poll, his strongly favorable rating was 68%. He’s dropped 25 points on this measure since then.

    It’s not that Republicans don’t like Trump. His overall favorable rating among Republicans in the same Fox News poll from last month was 77%. (Other polls put his favorable rating with Republicans in the 60s.) It’s more that they don’t love the former president. At least not enough to scare Republican politicians into following his every word.

    When we zoom in on very conservative Republicans (i.e., like the holdouts against McCarthy), the difference from where we were and where we are is quite stark. Our CNN/SSRS poll asked GOP voters (including independents who lean Republican) both at the beginning and the end of 2022 whether they wanted Trump or someone else to be the 2024 Republican nominee.

    Trump started 2022 with 65% of very conservative Republican voters saying they wanted him to be the Republican nominee. This was way higher than Republicans overall (50%). He ended the year with 42% of very conservative Republican voters believing he should be the GOP nominee, not too different from the 38% of Republicans overall who felt the same.

    A Monmouth University poll from December found very conservative Republicans preferring DeSantis to Trump on the 2024 ballot test.

    The bottom line is that what happened to McCarthy and Trump’s inability to prevent a once-in-a-generation speaker ballot saga is a manifestation of what is going on among Republicans at large. Trump is no longer the dominant figure, untouchable by GOP voters. He isn’t even holding on to those Republicans who essentially thought he could walk on water.

    This leaves the answer to the question of who wins the 2024 Republican nomination very much unclear at this point.

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  • How McCarthy’s unprecedented leadership battle is a reflection of Fox News and right-wing media | CNN Business

    How McCarthy’s unprecedented leadership battle is a reflection of Fox News and right-wing media | CNN Business

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    CNN
     — 

    It’s Tucker Carlson versus Sean Hannity in the Republican Party.

    The divisions inside the GOP, being laid bare on national television via the dramatic fight between Kevin McCarthy and a faction of rebels over the House speakership, mirror the rift that has been forming for some time in right-wing media and which is strikingly clear in Fox News primetime.

    Some corners of the right-wing media universe, represented by the Carlsons of the world, revel in the chaos. Carlson has made that clear on his broadcasts this week, effectively cheering on the Never Kevin camp in the House and arguing that what we are seeing on television — a paralyzed GOP unable after six votes to elect a House speaker — is healthy.

    A version of this article first appeared in the “Reliable Sources” newsletter. Sign up for the daily digest chronicling the evolving media landscape here.

    “If you prefer democracy to oligarchy, if you prefer real debates about issues that actually matter, it’s pretty refreshing to see it,” Carlson said of the public infighting taking place in the House, which is set to go back into session at noon on Thursday.

    Then there are the personalities and outlets that more closely align with Hannity, who has gone on record against the mutiny facing McCarthy and argued on the California congressman’s behalf.

    To be clear, Hannity hasn’t outright bashed the Republicans staging the rebellion against McCarthy. He’s mostly played polite. And he’s tried downplaying the friction, insisting it’s not a crisis. But Hannity has represented the wing of right-wing media — and the larger GOP — that would like to see Republicans unite and not be consumed by disorder.

    “Should Republicans have worked this all out in private, long before yesterday? Yeah, absolutely. And behind the scenes I spoke to many of them, and I urged them to work it out,” Hannity said Wednesday night. “They apparently did not listen to my advice.”

    After those comments, Hannity invited on Rep. Lauren Boebert for an interview which turned quite combative. The Fox News host repeatedly pressed the far-right congresswoman on what the rebel group plans to do, given that they are clearly a small minority of the GOP. Hannity at times noted that Boebert was evading and not answering his simple questions.

    “I asked you a simple question congresswoman. I feel like I’m getting an answer from a liberal,” an exasperated Hannity said toward the conclusion of the interview, in which Boebert repeatedly kept speaking over him.

    Of course, while Hannity, McCarthy, and others might be frustrated with the rebels now, they all played roles in bolstering their power in recent years. Which is the irony that cuts straight to the heart of the matter.

    Much like the Republican Party laid the groundwork over the years for the rise of Donald Trump, people like Hannity have laid the groundwork for the rise of people like Carlson. They’ve catered to their views, refused to call out their nonsense, and chosen to attack entities like the media instead of dealing with the own mess in their backyard.

    Now they’re reaping what they sowed: a party comprised of a growing number of erratic figures who don’t mind — and even perhaps prefer — watching the world burn.

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  • How McCarthy survived the House chaos to win the speaker’s gavel | CNN Politics

    How McCarthy survived the House chaos to win the speaker’s gavel | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz strode into House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy’s office on Monday night with a list of demands. Among them: The chairmanship of a key House Armed Services subcommittee.

    McCarthy rejected the offer. That decision set in motion a chain of events that left Gaetz and McCarthy locked in open confrontation on the House floor late Friday night. Gaetz, McCarthy’s staunchest opponent, dramatically denied McCarthy the final vote he needed to become speaker – then Gaetz and the last holdouts abruptly changed course allowing McCarthy to win the speaker’s gavel on his 15th attempt.

    See the moment Rep. Kevin McCarthy was elected House speaker

    Before the final vote, pandemonium erupted on the House floor after Gaetz waited until the very end of the 14th ballot to vote “present” when McCarthy needed one more “yes” vote. Stunned after believing he had the votes, McCarthy faced his most embarrassing defeat yet. McCarthy’s allies encircled Gaetz to try to find a way forward. McCarthy soon made a bee-line for discussion and started engaging Gaetz, too.

    After McCarthy walked away from Gaetz, looking dejected, Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers moved toward the conversation and lunged at Gaetz, having to be physically restrained by Republican Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina. Rogers, a Republican from Alabama who earlier in the week warned the GOP dissidents they would lose their committee assignments, told Gaetz he would be “finished” for continuing to wreck the speaker’s vote.

    Nearby, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia was trying to convince Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana, another McCarthy holdout, to take her cell phone and speak to former President Donald Trump, who was on the line.

    Finally, the House clerk announced for the 14th time that no one had the votes to be speaker. Republicans moved to adjourn the chamber until Monday. As the vote timer counted down, 218 Republicans had voted yes, a majority that would have sent McCarthy home for the weekend and left the House in paralysis at the hands of Gaetz and his allies.

    The sign at McCarthy's office is installed on Capitol Hill in Washington, early Saturday on January 7, 2023.

    But with less than a minute left to go in the vote, Gaetz moved toward the front of the chamber, grabbing a red index card to change his vote on adjournment. Gaetz walked toward McCarthy, and the two briefly exchanged words. McCarthy then raised his hand and yelled out, “One more!” as he triumphantly walked toward the front of the chamber to change his vote, too. It was the GOP leader’s final negotiation capping an emotional roller coaster over the course of four days as he was held hostage by a narrow faction of his conference. Dozens of Republicans followed McCarthy and Gaetz to defeat the adjournment measure, and McCarthy’s victory, at last, was at hand.

    The six Republican holdouts all voted present on the 15th ballot, giving McCarthy a 216-212 victory to end the longest speaker’s race since 1859. Rep. Tom Emmer, one of McCarthy’s top deputies, went up and down the aisles telling Republicans on the House floor not to clap for Gaetz or Rep. Lauren Boebert when they announced their votes, like they had for other holdouts who had flipped to McCarthy earlier in the day.

    Asked why he reversed course on McCarthy, Gaetz said, “I ran out of things I could even imagine to ask for.”

    McCarthy expressed relief as he left the floor: “I’m glad it’s over.”

    McCarthy denied Gaetz was offered the subcommittee gavel he had sought earlier in the week in exchange for his vote. “No one gets promised anything,” McCarthy said.

    Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., left, pulls Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., back as they talk with Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and other during the 14th round of voting for speaker as the House meets for the fourth day to try and elect a speaker and convene the 118th Congress in Washington, Friday, Jan. 6, 2023. At right is Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

    GOP lawmaker had to be restrained while confronting Gaetz. Hear what he told him

    The chaotic scramble to the speakership came after days of marathon negotiations that exposed deep divides within the GOP and threw into question their ability to govern effectively in the 118th Congress. But McCarthy’s victory after facing 20 defectors on Tuesday also highlighted the successful strategy concocted by McCarthy and his top lieutenants to defeat the self-proclaimed “Never Kevin” movement led by Gaetz.

    McCarthy’s strategy led to a breakthrough over two votes Friday afternoon, when McCarthy flipped 14 Republicans who had voted against him following marathon talks over House rules – setting the stage for the 11th-hour chaos with the final six holdouts.

    It’s too soon to say whether the four-day speaker drama will become little more than an historical footnote for the 118th Congress, or if it’s an early indicator of even more bruising fights to come. But the fight over the speaker’s gavel exposed the bitter fault lines bubbling up in the Republican Party for the better course of a decade that will hover over the House for the next two years.

    McCarthy’s concessions to the GOP dissidents are significant and could ultimately cut his tenure as speaker short. Among the rules changes: McCarthy agreed to restore a rule allowing a single Republican member to call for a vote to depose him as speaker, the same rule that led to John Boehner’s decision to resign as speaker in 2015.

    Still, McCarthy’s victory Friday now gives him the long-sought speaker’s gavel and the chance to lead a House that will quickly turn its focus to investigating President Joe Biden, his administration and his family. More challenging for McCarthy and his conference are the looming fights later this year over government spending and the debt ceiling, where McCarthy cut deals on spending during this week’s negotiations likely to be unacceptable both to Democrats and the White House as well as Senate Republicans.

    This account of how McCarthy finally won the fifth longest speaker’s fight in history is based on dozens of interviews throughout the week as the drama played out on and off the House floor with the fate of McCarthy’s political career and the legislative body itself hanging in the balance.

    WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 06: U.S. Rep.-elect Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) offers a phone to Rep.-elect Matt Rosendale (R-MT) in the House Chamber during the fourth day of voting for Speaker of the House at the U.S. Capitol Building on January 06, 2023 in Washington, DC. The House of Representatives is meeting to vote for the next Speaker after House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) failed to earn more than 218 votes on several ballots; the first time in 100 years that the Speaker was not elected on the first ballot. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    Analysis: Dana Bash reacts to McCarthy thanking Trump for speaker role

    The morning following McCarthy’s Monday meeting with Gaetz, things got even worse for the GOP leader.

    In a tense meeting in the basement of the Capitol with the full House GOP Conference, McCarthy and Gaetz got into a screaming match. McCarthy called out his detractors for asking for personal favors, including Gaetz, whom he said informed him he didn’t care if Democrat Hakeem Jeffries was elected speaker so long as he didn’t get the job.

    Afterward, the Florida Republican accused McCarthy of acting in bad faith by asking him for a list of demands – and then by later berating him over it.

    “It was very unseemly,” Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina, one of the 20 who initially opposed McCarthy.

    That meeting – where Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado called out “bulls**t” on McCarthy and where the GOP leader engaged in heated exchanges with Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania – set the stage for the furious four-day battle.

    Afterward, McCarthy and his allies knew they had a problem. They saw his opposition growing amid anger over McCarthy’s threats and tough talk. So they began to work on a strategy: Take the temperature down and divide the opponents away from Gaetz and provide concessions to far-right members of the conference who want more say in the legislative process.

    mccarthy statuary hall

    McCarthy explains tense House floor discussion with Gaetz

    At noon, the House gaveled in the 118th Congress, and lawmakers swarmed the House floor, children in tow, for what was supposed to begin a day of pageantry. In a sign of the new Republican rules, the magnetometers installed by outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the wake of the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol were removed from the doors to the House floor.

    The first order of business quickly revealed the depth of the GOP opposition to McCarthy’s speakership bid.

    McCarthy needed 218 votes, a majority of the House, meaning he could only lose four of the 222 Republicans as long as all Democrats voted for Jeffries. The clerk called out the names of all 434 members to vote in alphabetical order. McCarthy was denied a majority before the House clerk was through the “C’s,” and 19 Republicans voted for someone other than McCarthy – leaving him 15 votes short.

    Jeffries, the new Democratic leader, got the most votes with 212.

    McCarthy’s camp hunkered down, preparing to go through multiple votes for speaker for the first time in a century. “We’re going to war,” a senior GOP source told CNN.

    McCarthy’s opponents were just as dug in. “We will never cave,” said Rep. Bob Good of Virginia.

    On the second ballot, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio – the Republican rabble-rouser turned McCarthy ally – rose to nominate McCarthy, after he had received six votes from the holdouts. Gaetz followed Jordan by nominating the Ohio Republican himself as a candidate. All 19 Republicans holdouts consolidated around Jordan, and the count ended in the same place as the first ballot.

    Before the third vote, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, who had voted for McCarthy on the first two ballots, told CNN that McCarthy failed to “close the deal.” When his name was called minutes later, Donalds announced he was voting for Jordan, McCarthy’s first defection.

    The list of McCarthy’s opponents grew to 20 when the third vote was announced, and the House adjourned for the day.

    Rep. Lauren Boebert stands next to Rep. Byron Donalds as she casts her vote in the House chamber during the second day of elections for speaker at the US Capitol on January 4, 2023.

    After the Tuesday’s three failed votes, McCarthy had debated having another GOP conference meeting. But the California Republican was advised not to, worried it would not be productive and would lead to another heated venting session that was leaked to the press in real time.

    WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 07: U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (D-CA) celebrates with the gavel after being elected in the House Chamber at the U.S. Capitol Building on January 07, 2023 in Washington, DC. After four days of voting and 15 ballots McCarthy secured enough votes to become Speaker of the House for the 118th Congress. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

    Hear Kevin McCarthy’s first speech as House speaker

    Instead, McCarthy’s camp ultimately decided small meetings would be more fruitful after the two factions retreated to their corners. McCarthy made his own round of calls Tuesday evening, including to former President Donald Trump. Before leaving the Capitol, McCarthy claimed to reporters he believed he was “not that far away” from the votes he needed.

    McCarthy said that the former president “reiterated support” for his speaker bid.

    The day before the vote for speaker, the former president had declined to issue a statement reiterating his endorsement of McCarthy despite a behind-the-scenes effort from several McCarthy allies to get Trump to do so.

    Finally, on Wednesday morning, Trump did release a statement on his social media site urging the House GOP to “VOTE FOR KEVIN.”

    The former president’s message had little effect.

    “I disagree with Trump. This is our fight. This isn’t Trump’s,” said South Carolina GOP Rep. Ralph Norman, one of the McCarthy dissenters.

    Trump continued to keep the House drama at arms’ length until Friday, when he made calls to Gaetz and Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona while they were on the House floor. After McCarthy won the speakership, Trump congratulated him on his social media site.

    Rep. Patrick McHenry, left, and Rep. Tom Emmer speak with McCarthy in the House chamber on January 4, 2023, as lawmakers meet for a second day to elect a speaker and convene the 118th Congress.

    When the House gaveled back into session Wednesday, McCarthy lacked the votes to adjourn the session, as some of his allies had wanted in order to keep negotiating. So McCarthy headed toward a fourth ballot.

    Jordan urged McCarthy’s opponents not to nominate him again. Instead, Rep. Chip Roy of Texas stood instead to nominate Donalds – the very Republican who had defected the day prior.

    While the McCarthy opponents did not grow their ranks – a sigh of relief for McCarthy – the California Republican still lost one vote: Rep. Victoria Spartz, an Indiana Republican, who voted present. Spartz told reporters her vote was intended to encourage the two sides to get back to the negotiating table.

    There were other signs that some of McCarthy’s backers weren’t willing to stick by him forever. Rep. Ken Buck, a Colorado Republican and House Freedom Caucus member, told CNN that “at some point” McCarthy needed to step aside and let now-Majority Leader Steve Scalise run. “What I’ve asked is that if Kevin can’t get there, that he step aside and give Steve a chance to do it,” Buck said.

    The atmosphere on the House floor on Wednesday was buzzing by the second vote. While Tuesday’s session was relatively calm, the opposing factions gathered on the floor to hold talks in real time in between the speaker votes.

    At the same time the House was taking vote after vote for speaker, Biden was speaking in Kentucky at an event with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell promoting the 2021 infrastructure bill McConnell helped pass. Biden’s speech gave the White House – and Senate Republicans – a split screen that laid bare the vast contrast with the House Republican infighting.

    “It’s embarrassing for the country,” Biden said of the House chaos.

    President Joe Biden greets Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on arrival at Cincinnati Northern Kentucky International Airport in Hebron, Kentucky, on January 4, 2023.

    After the sixth vote ended with an identical outcome as the fifth, the House adjourned for several hours. The break gave the two sides more time to negotiate, and some of the hardliners said they saw some progress.

    A group of Republicans decamped to the office of Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer, the new House majority whip. Bishop said things had changed over the past couple of hours and he was “encouraged” by the talks.

    But it wasn’t clear that the meeting would lead to a breakthrough. Gaetz pledged that the McCarthy dissenters could continue to hold votes “until the cherry blossoms fall off the trees.” Boebert said the “boats are burned” when it comes to any future negotiations with McCarthy.

    When the House gaveled back into session, Republicans moved to adjourn for the night rather than take another failed speaker vote. GOP leaders were hopeful that the ongoing talks would convince McCarthy’s opponents to vote for adjournment, but with just four votes to spare, the roll-call vote was tight.

    All Democrats and four McCarthy opponents voted against adjourning, and the motion was in danger of failing – which would have forced the House to keep voting for speaker. But two Democrats weren’t in attendance, and the House clerk gaveled an end to the vote, 216 to 214.

    McCarthy had at least one more day to try to get his detractors to yes.

    Rep. Jim Jordan talks with McCarthy in the House chamber as the House meets on January 4, 2023, to elect a speaker.

    On Wednesday evening, McCarthy agreed to several key concessions to try to flip at least some of his opponents.

    McCarthy had been in talks with Roy, who told GOP leaders he thought he could get 10 holdouts to come along with him. McCarthy also met separately Wednesday evening with freshman members who voted against him.

    In perhaps the biggest concession, McCarthy agreed to allow just one member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker. McCarthy had initially proposed a five-member threshold, down from current conference rules that require half of the GOP to call for such a vote.

    McCarthy also pledged to allow more members of the Freedom Caucus to serve on the Rules Committee and to hold votes for bills that were priorities for the holdouts, including on border security and term limits.

    In another sign of a breakthrough, a McCarthy-aligned super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, agreed to not get involved in open primaries in safe seats – one of the demands conservatives had asked for but McCarthy had resisted.

    “I think we’re making progress,” McCarthy said Thursday morning as he arrived at the Capitol for a third day of votes.

    The GOP dissidents also sounded a positive note. “We’re making some progress,” Bishop told CNN as he was walking into a meeting Thursday morning with other GOP hardliners.

    McCarthy leaves a private meeting room off the floor at the US Capitol on January 5, 2023, as he negotiates with lawmakers in his own party to become the speaker of the House.

    Despite the optimistic chatter Thursday morning, the House gaveled into session at noon without a deal. And while McCarthy’s allies had considered trying to postpone additional votes so a deal could be finalized, McCarthy lacked the votes to adjourn.

    Instead, lawmakers followed two tracks into the evening: taking vote after vote on the House floor for speaker, while negotiations continued behind closed doors.

    The outcome did not change with each floor vote. While the GOP holdouts shifted who received their anti-McCarthy votes – Boebert nominated Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma on vote No. 9, and Gaetz nominated Trump on the 11th ballot – none shifted to McCarthy’s side.

    Twenty-one Republicans didn’t support McCarthy on ballot number seven. Same with eight, nine, 10 and 11.

    Behind the scenes, however, the holdouts who weren’t in the “never Kevin” camp continued talking with McCarthy and his allies, inching closer to a deal.

    By the early evening Thursday, there was an offer “on paper.” Three of the key negotiators – Emmer, Roy and Donalds – huddled with McCarthy in his ceremonial office, following a session in Emmer’s office for one group to review the written agreement to break the stalemate. Another group huddled in the member’s dining room on the first floor of the Capitol to discuss a separate part of the written deal.

    “We’re still working through it,” Roy said leaving Emmer’s office.

    “Each meeting is more positive than the last. And that’s a very nice sign,” Rep. Patrick McHenry, a key negotiator on McCarthy’s side, told reporters.

    The discussions in Emmer’s office continued late into the evening Thursday in an attempt to get to yes. Chipotle was wheeled in for dinner.

    One factor complicating the talks was a handful Republicans were expected to leave Washington due to various family issues. Buck left Thursday afternoon for a planned medical procedure. Rep. Wesley Hunt flew back to Texas to be with his wife and newborn, who had to spend some time in the neonatal intensive care unit.

    McCarthy reacts after losing the 14th vote in the House chamber as the House meets on January 6, 2023, for the fourth day to elect a speaker and convene the 118th Congress.

    On Friday morning, House Democrats marked the second anniversary of the January 6, 2021, attack on the steps of the Capitol. Just one Republican attended: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania.

    Republicans huddled once again as a conference for the first time since the heated Tuesday meeting. This time, McCarthy organized a conference call, which could be more easily managed, rather than an in-person session. On the call, McCarthy told his conference that a deal had not yet been finalized but that progress had been made. He specifically thanked Roy, a key holdout, for his role.

    Before the House gaveled back into session, McCarthy predicted he would win over some holdovers, though there were still reasons for him to be pessimistic the finish line was in sight.

    “I’ll be voting for Byron Donalds,” Norman told CNN on his way to the floor, saying he was still reviewing the emerging agreement.

    The 12th vote for speaker began the same as the 11 before it. Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona was the first Republican to vote against McCarthy. Then Bishop, the next McCarthy opponent in the roll call, rose to cast his vote.

    “McCarthy,” Bishop said, prompting his fellow Republicans to leap from their seats with a standing ovation.

    Freshman Rep. John Brecheen of Oklahoma was the next to flip, prompting another round of Republican cheers. By the end of the roll call, 14 holdouts, including Norman, had called McCarthy’s name. He was still short of the votes he needed for speaker, but the tide had turned. Only seven McCarthy opponents remained.

    On the 13th vote, the GOP leader peeled off one more detractor, Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland. The House voted to adjourn until 10 p.m. ET – providing time both for the two missing McCarthy supporters time to return to Washington and for McCarthy’s allies to turn up the heat on the remaining holdouts.

    McCarthy needed two more votes. McCarthy and his allies focused on Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana and freshman Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona either to support McCarthy or vote present, lowering the vote threshold to win a majority.

    There were multiple avenues to a majority and the speakership for McCarthy. The simplest path was to peel off two more votes and hit 218. But if McCarthy’s remaining GOP opponents would not vote for him, the California could still obtain a majority if three of the six detractors voted “present.” In addition to Rosendale and Crane, McCarthy’s allies looked to Boebert as a potential present vote.

    Gaetz and Boebert appeared to acknowledge the end of the speaker fight was near before the House returned to session, sitting for a joint interview with Fox’s Sean Hannity and expressing vague optimisms for the rules changes the holdouts had won.

    But as the House gaveled back into session, Gaetz went to McCarthy’s senior aide and asked whether the House could adjourn until Monday. Gaetz offer was rejected, leading to the final chaos over the course of the 14th and 15th votes for speaker.

    Early Saturday morning, following 14 losses and more than 84 hours after the beginning of the 118th Congress, the House clerk finally announced McCarthy was elected House speaker.

    Before the chaos over the final vote, McCarthy earlier Friday had sounded an optimistic note that the lengthy fight over the gavel would actually help Republicans. “So this is the great part. Because it took this long, now we’ve learned how to govern,” McCarthy said. “So now we’ll be able to get the job done.”

    Gaetz, however, suggested the historic fight would have a different impact on McCarthy’s speakership. Due to the concessions, Gaetz argued, McCarthy will be governing in a “straitjacket.”

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  • Opinion: The deal McCarthy struck was an inexplicable act of self destruction | CNN

    Opinion: The deal McCarthy struck was an inexplicable act of self destruction | CNN

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    Editor’s Note: Charlie Dent is a former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania who was chair of the House Ethics Committee from 2015 until 2017 and chair of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies from 2015 until 2018. He is a CNN political commentator. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.



    CNN
     — 

    The drawn-out spectacle that was the House speaker election laid bare the fracture and dysfunction within the House Republican conference. Mercifully, it ended after four days and 15 ballots.

    But it’s worth noting that the House Speaker vote is the first – and typically the easiest – order of business. Judging by how difficult it was for Kevin McCarthy to secure the necessary votes to become speaker, there are plenty of bitter and protracted fights to come.

    After McCarthy flipped a number of his original holdouts, his fate finally came down to Rep. Matt Gaetz, who found himself on the receiving end of ire from his GOP colleagues, including an understandably frustrated Rep. Mike Rogers, who angrily confronted the Florida congressman during the closing moments of the 14th ballot.

    While congratulations are in order to Speaker McCarthy, the role has been considerably weakened due to the reported concessions he made during this unseemly political shakedown. Clearly, the hardliners exacted more than a pound of flesh from McCarthy and most of the House GOP conference that will make governing exceedingly difficult.

    It begs the question: Is surrendering your way to victory really winning? And when will this appeasement ever end, considering it only makes this extremist faction more powerful?

    First, a bit of recent history is in order to explain the dynamics of the House Republican conference.

    Anyone surprised by the dysfunction this week should not have been; the House GOP conference has been growing increasingly dysfunctional over the past 13 years. The chaotic machinations witnessed by the world this week are simply a continuation of the dysfunction that began after the Tea Party swept the House in 2010.

    Former Speaker John Boehner and Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and later Speaker Paul Ryan, were all tormented by a rejectionist wing of their own party on simple matters of governance. Funding the government, preventing default on the full faith and credit of the United States, providing emergency relief to states and communities ravaged by natural disasters, and reauthorizing essential programs all became dramatic, high stakes fights.

    McCarthy was in leadership throughout this period and knew the dangers in dealing with this fringe group bent on sowing chaos in Congress. In fact, some of the same characters behind the chaos this week were among the group that fragged McCarthy in 2015 when he last tried to become speaker (and failed). Torturing the House Republican leadership and holding the GOP agenda hostage has become an ignoble strategy for these rabble rousers.

    So here we are in 2023. The malcontents are still digging in – the only difference now is that there is a smaller governing majority. Actually, there really is no GOP governing majority at all, and the world will learn that soon enough.

    A paradigm shift is long overdue. Pragmatic and rational Republican members, who bristled at the concessions McCarthy handed to Gaetz and his ilk, must force a course correction and change the dynamics.

    In this case, retribution is a dish best served piping hot. It’s time for rational House Republicans to push back and use their leverage – starting with the rules package. They should give the chaos caucus a taste of their own medicine and say no until their reasonable demands are met.

    They’ll be doing themselves – and McCarthy – a favor by clawing back some of the rules the speaker agreed to in his misguided deal. Giving in to the hardliners by allowing a single member to call for a vote to oust the speaker is a nonstarter; same for placing more members of the Freedom Caucus on the House Rules Committee.

    The hardliners also secured a promise that a McCarthy-aligned super PAC would not intervene in open, safe seat GOP primaries. Why empower fringe elements even further in a way that will only produce more members of Congress who are disinterested in governing? These are inexplicable acts of self-destruction.

    It’s time to stop feeding the crocodiles. Rational Republicans must stand, fight and resist. Two can play this game. If the diabolical demands and tactics of the chaos caucus didn’t upset them enough, consider this quote from Gaetz: “I ran out of things I could even imagine to ask for.”

    Rational House Republicans need to protect themselves from the deal McCarthy agreed to in his own quest for the coveted gavel. Big legislative battles are looming, and Republicans will need all the procedural tools at their disposal to keep the country on track and out of the proverbial ditch, or worse. Tanking the worst of the proposed rules changes is in order.

    And if there aren’t enough GOP votes for a more reasonable rules package, then it’s time to try something novel – bipartisanship. In this case, rational Republicans should reach across the aisle and work with Democrats to secure enough votes for a rules package that rolls back some of the hardliners’ demands.

    The House’s ability to function is at stake. America’s authoritarian adversaries around the world point to democracy as outdated and unable to meet the needs of its people. It’s time to prove them wrong by stamping out the extremist elements within our midst who deny the results of free and fair elections and wish to wreak havoc on America’s hallowed temple of democracy.

    This is the moment for rational House Republicans to make their stand.

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  • Marcy Kaptur breaks new record in Congress with a familiar warning for the Democratic Party | CNN Politics

    Marcy Kaptur breaks new record in Congress with a familiar warning for the Democratic Party | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Rep. Marcy Kaptur becomes the longest-serving woman in Congress this week after winning her first competitive race in decades. But she sees her work in Washington as far from over.

    “I operate in a different way than many of my colleagues simply because of what I have lived,” said the Ohio Democrat, who was the first in her family to graduate from college and represents the kind of Rust Belt community slipping away from her party.

    “So why do I stay? It isn’t just to get a title that she stayed the longest. But to use every ounce of strength I have to try to hammer this message: You’re leaving us out. You’re not seeing us.”

    First elected in 1982, Kaptur became the longest-serving woman in the US House of Representatives in 2018. But now she’s breaking the record of former Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski, a fellow Democrat who retired at the end of 2016 after 40 years in Congress. Throughout that time, Kaptur has urged her party – especially leadership, which has often been dominated by lawmakers from the coasts – to wake up to the plight of “industrial and agricultural America,” not only for the survival of the party, but also for democracy.

    In an interview with CNN late last year, Kaptur recalled approaching a “very high-ranking member of the House” and warning that the federal government needed to invest in the middle of the country. “We are going to have political unrest. I even used a stronger word. I said even perhaps fascism,” she said.

    That was before the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.

    Kaptur won a 21st term in November in a district that was redrawn from heavily Democrat to more Republican, defeating an election denier who was at the Capitol on January 6.

    J.R. Majewski has said he went to protest peacefully and left when “it got ugly,” but the House GOP’s campaign arm eventually cut off spending for him in the district after revelations about him misrepresenting his military record. Kaptur, although she faced criticism from some constituents that she’d been in Washington too long, won by 13 points.

    “I view myself like the Statue of Freedom on top of the Capitol. It is a woman and she looks east to the rising sun,” said Kaptur, who counts among her proudest achievements the 17-year struggle for the construction of the World War II memorial. It was one of her constituents, a letter carrier from the village of Berkey, who pushed her to introduce legislation for it.

    Kaptur left a doctorate program at MIT to run for Congress, having already worked for President Jimmy Carter as a domestic policy adviser. She was one of just 24 women in Congress when she arrived. Today there are 149.

    “So that is really consequential progress – in one generation,” Kaptur said of the record number of women serving this year. She wrote a book in 1996 about women in Congress in the 20th century, joking that she’s been too busy to update it.

    But having more women in Congress is less important to Kaptur than where the women are from and the kinds of communities they represent.

    “As a woman, let me just say, if you come from the part of America where I do – and I don’t just mean geographically, but I mean economically – we still don’t have a majority.”

    “What’s the difference between a very rich woman and man in Congress?” asked Kaptur, who lives in the same Toledo house she grew up in. “People like us, we’re there. We’re there. We are radishes in a salad. … But we’re important voices because what we have experienced enlightens the dialogue.”

    She fought for years to get a spot on the House Appropriations Committee – eventually going up against Nancy Pelosi. “I was so offended,” Kaptur said, casting it as the “fight of a hardscrabble working-class person” against a former head of the Democratic Party of California.

    Kaptur has occasionally been at odds with Pelosi in leadership races – even briefly challenging her for party leader in 2002 – although the two women have recently praised and supported each other. Kaptur’s voting record on abortion has also evolved to be more in line with the national party.

    When the Ohio Democrat got to the Appropriations Committee in the early 1990s, she was one of only three women. Democratic then-Rep. Lindy Boggs of Louisiana had to tell her to stand up when addressing the panel.

    She’s unsuccessfully sought to lead the committee – losing out to women from more coastal states. But in 2019, she became the first woman to chair the subcommittee on energy and water development and her bill to create the Great Lakes Authority – a federal regional commission to address environmental and economic issues – recently passed as part of the omnibus spending package.

    Still, she said, it can be hard to be heard.

    This Capitol Hill duo has worked on family issues for nearly 30 years

    “When you’re not in leadership, you don’t have a seat at the table – maybe you have your subcommittee or your committee, something like that – but it almost is impenetrable,” she said of the institution. “And the American people know it. They feel it and that’s why they’re becoming radical in their political expressions.”

    But she credits President Joe Biden for visiting Lorain, a city in Northeast Ohio, last year. “That is unheard of. Joe Biden is trying. He’s in a party that can’t see places like Lorain and Cleveland and Toledo.”

    She laments the defeat of Democrat Tim Ryan, whom she backed in last year’s Ohio Senate race, and blames the national party for long ignoring disaffected voters who ultimately backed the Republican nominee.

    “So my struggle is unending. And I hope God gives me the years, maybe I can pound some of this sense into the institution, but I don’t know,” Kaptur said.

    And then, with a laugh, later added, “I gotta stay as long as Mitch McConnell.”

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  • How an American hero ‘lit his legacy on fire’ | CNN Politics

    How an American hero ‘lit his legacy on fire’ | CNN Politics

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    Watch “Giuliani: What Happened to America’s Mayor?” on CNN at 9 p.m. ET/PT on Sunday, January 8.



    CNN
     — 

    The evolution of Rudy Giuliani is an epic tale. A celebrated crime fighter who brought down mafia bosses and put Wall Street crooks behind bars, he traded on trust and integrity to prove Republicans could still get elected as mayors of big cities.

    His empathy and leadership on 9/11 in New York City made him a global figure and a bona fide hero.

    How that man, who used to get standing ovations whenever he entered a room, morphed into former President Donald Trump’s conspiracy theory lackey peddling lies about the 2020 election is the subject of the new CNN Original Series, “Giuliani: What Happened to America’s Mayor?”

    The images of Giuliani’s early success paired with his later disgrace are striking and sad.

    I reached out to one key voice in the series, CNN political analyst John Avlon, who was Giuliani’s chief speech writer during his second term as mayor, including on 9/11, and later worked for Giuliani’s presidential campaign.

    Excerpts of our conversation about Avlon’s perceptions of the series and what happened to his old boss are below.

    WOLF: The Giuliani of today is at the fulcrum of so many of Trump’s problems. Giuliani’s dirt digging in Ukraine contributed to the first Trump impeachment. Giuliani helped enable the election denialism that led to the second Trump impeachment. How would you describe his place in Trump’s political history?

    AVLON: I think that among some hard-core Trump true believers, Rudy will be scapegoated as the source of Trump’s multiple problems. I think that’s an attempt to evade Trump’s responsibility for the chaos he himself caused.

    But you have got to hand it to him – Rudy is the first presidential lawyer whose actions contributed to not one, but two impeachments. That’s a special place in American history. And unfortunately, I think this tragic last chapter in his life will overwhelm the very positive, constructive role he played in different chapters of his life.

    I don’t think it’ll ultimately eclipse 9/11 and his leadership on that day. But he lit his legacy on fire in service of Donald Trump and got nothing in return except disgrace, ignominy, (possible) disbarment and a gutting of his personal fortune.

    WOLF: I think a lot of people will be surprised to learn about those earlier chapters. He’s this prosecutor who brought down mafia families and insider traders. He’s the mayor who cleaned up the city. How does that guy become the conspiracy theory pusher?

    AVLON: That’s, to a large extent, what the documentary is about. I think it is important for people to remember he was a leading lawyer of his generation, with an objective record of success in terms of dismantling the mob and taking on Wall Street.

    That alone would have made him a major figure in contemporary American politics. But then what he did as mayor was absolutely remarkable. George Will called it America’s most successful case of conservative governance.

    I worked for him in City Hall in his second term as chief speechwriter, and if you just look at the data of what he did, it’s remarkable:

    He cut murders by 68%, crime by 56%.

    He turned a $2 billion deficit into a multibillion-dollar surplus.

    He cut taxes for New Yorkers.

    He improved the quality of life.

    I think his policies ushered in an era of resurgence for urban America. In New York City, I think 20 years of Rudy and (Michael) Bloomberg together really helped turn around the city in fundamental ways.

    The tragedy – and I use the term advisedly because it’s self-inflicted, but it is tragic – is that the guy who believed that the law is a search for the truth ended up trying to defend his client in the court of public opinion using the law in pursuit of a lie.

    I think that he got caught in a right-wing echo chamber ecosystem, where he was totally invested in an alternate reality that was fundamentally hyperpartisan and therefore they couldn’t even conceive of losing fairly.

    And so at the end of the day, they tried to overturn an election, overturn our democracy on the basis of a pretty self-evident lie with no evidence.

    I’m not going to try to diagnose how he’s changed. But the filter in the judgment of the man I knew and was proud to work for is fundamentally off.

    WOLF: The perception is that he has changed as a person, but there are these interesting moments in the documentary that presage the Rudy of today. We see a riot of police officers at City Hall in 1992 that is compared with the riot at the Capitol. In ’89, he suggested but did not pursue the idea that there had been fraudulent voting. Has he actually changed, or has he just been uncovered?

    AVLON: Robert Caro has a great line about how power doesn’t corrupt, power reveals. I’m always more inclined to believe the adage that as people grow older, they get more so. There are moments, and the documentary makes a lot of them, to draw a narrative connection between the police riot and January 6th. The person I knew and worked for – those incidents did not define him on a day-to-day basis.

    Character counts. One of the things for good or for ill about Rudy, and something that I learned on 9/11, is you don’t have to be perfect to be a hero. Rudy was not one of these politicians who pretended to be perfect.

    He understood that he was a flawed human being and was actively interested in figuring out his flaws and what motivated him in certain low times. He was someone who thought philosophically about politics.

    If you talked to him about his position on abortion, for example, he would, in an unpretentious way, start talking about St. Thomas Aquinas, the debate about when life begins.

    He was also the kind of human who thought about becoming a priest and ended up becoming a prosecutor. But I think there has been a change in his judgment.

    The Trump orbit tends to attract people who are not at their best in terms of stability. Rudy found attention and relevance at the expense of his legacy and reputation.

    WOLF: It was instructive for me to revisit just how much of a national hero he was after 9/11. How do you think that specifically affected him? You saw it happen.

    AVLON: First of all, there is a misperception that’s partly partisan nature that Rudy was deeply unpopular before 9/11. That is statistically not true.

    That’s not to say he wasn’t controversial and divisive at times. What he would say is that when you’re turning around a ship at sea, you’ve got to throw your shoulder to the wheel.

    9/11 was a classic case of the man meeting the moment. The New York Observer, which was often critical of Rudy, said that he distinguished himself almost overnight as New York’s greatest mayor.

    He became seen as sort of a modern-day Churchill and that was because of his instinctive response to an unprecedented massive attack.

    And it was also because of his empathy and his honesty. He was able to channel grief in a constructive direction. He was resolute. He said the number of people who died was more than any of us can bear, and he was an inspiration to a fundamentally shaken and horrified world.

    And it was extraordinary. For months and years afterward, he would be greeted with standing ovations when he walked in the room.

    I think it’s a little too simple to say that creates a presumption of that kind of reception wherever you go. But I think what it does is highlight how tragic the fall has been.

    And if he had kept his credibility as sort of a centrist Republican senior statesman who was tough on the issues that a lot of people care about – law and order, fiscal discipline, etc., including on social issues – he could have played a major stabilizing force within the Republican Party.

    He could have been somebody who parks and statues and streets would have been named after across the nation, because of his example of leadership on that day, which was the apotheosis of his career. That was a reflection of the true mettle and character.

    WOLF: You talked about him being a Republican in a Democratic city. He wasn’t the only big city Republican mayor. Los Angeles had one at the time. Republicans put up John McCain for president in 2008. Mitt Romney tried to be severely conservative, but these days he’s just about as moderate as Republicans get. Do you think Republicans are interested in moving back into that middle ground and governing a big city as opposed to just using it as a foil for their national ambitions?

    AVLON: It’s a great and important question. If you take the biggest possible step back at America’s historical political divisions, you’ll see that much bigger than Democrat / Republican or liberal / conservative is urban vs. rural.

    We need urban Republicans and rural Democrats to help bridge divides. When there were progressive Republicans back in the day, particularly in the Northeast, and conservative Democrats, there were a ton of problems. But you could always find governing majorities within divided government. You could cobble together coalition.

    The decline of urban Republicans and rural Democrats is enormously disruptive for the country in terms of further inflaming hyperpartisanship and polarization and the kind of distrust that already exists culturally kind of in our America.

    Republicans should care about playing in urban areas, and Democrats should care a hell of a lot more about playing in rural areas in red states.

    WOLF: We tend to think that it was proximity to Trump that radicalized Rudy, but there’s a riff in the documentary about Giuliani’s visceral reaction to the Barack Obama presidency, similar to how Trump reacted to Obama’s presidency, actually. I wondered how you felt about seeing that portion.

    AVLON: After his presidential campaign, he becomes more and more sort of isolated in that bubble. That right-wing ecosystem. It’s a form of acculturation where the hyperpartisan environment becomes kind of assumed.

    It’s the places you’re giving speeches. It’s the television networks you watch. You spend all your time with partisans. It isolates you from the act of responsibility of governing and uniting a very diverse city – even certainly he had challenges with that.

    I think that his animus toward Hillary Clinton and the Clintons was one of the things that drove him to embrace Donald Trump late in the (2016) campaign.

    By the way, he never endorsed (former New Jersey Gov.) Chris Christie or (former Florida Gov.) Jeb Bush, but he really was inclined to support either of them first, because they’re the kind of Republicans that he was.

    After he made that comment about Obama, I believe it was a fundraiser for (then-Wisconsin Gov.) Scott Walker, he actually called me at home to explain himself. (Read CNN’s report from 2015, when Giuliani said he didn’t think Obama “loves America.”)

    It was strange, because I think we just had our first son, and Margaret and I met working on his presidential campaign. (Avlon is married to the CNN political commentator and host of PBS’ “Firing Line,” Margaret Hoover). And he called me to, like, explain what he meant.

    I thought it was revealing of the right-wing media he had been ingesting, and also that somewhere there was a degree of guilt that he felt the need to explain himself to me, who worked for him before, a long time ago.

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  • Stabenow’s retirement gives Republicans an opening in Michigan. But will they take it? | CNN Politics

    Stabenow’s retirement gives Republicans an opening in Michigan. But will they take it? | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Longtime Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow is calling it quits and will not stand for reelection in 2024.

    At a minimum, her decision makes Democrats’ already difficult job of retaining Senate control in 2024 even harder. Senators caucusing with the party hold 23 of the 34 seats expected to be up for reelection. Seven of them represent states Trump won at least once. This includes Michigan.

    Sen. Gary Peters – the last Democrat not named Stabenow to run for Senate in Michigan – won reelection by less than 2 points in 2020.

    Stabenow likely would have made Democrats’ job easier had she opted to run again. After narrowly unseating Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham in 2000, she has won reelection by at least 5 points in three subsequent contests.

    But Democrats now have a battle on the horizon in another state that flipped from Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden four years later. Beyond Michigan, Democrats face a messy situation in Arizona with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema becoming an independent.

    With 51 senators now caucusing with Democrats, losses in Arizona and Michigan alone could be enough to flip the chamber to Republicans.

    Yet, Republicans’ ability to flip Michigan will be highly dependent on two important questions.

    First, what type of party do GOP primary voters want?

    And second, will Republicans in key Great Lakes battleground states continue to outperform national results if Trump isn’t on the ballot?

    In 2022, we saw GOP primary voters across the map select nominees who ended up being rejected by the general election electorate. Republicans underperformed the partisan fundamentals in a number of key Senate races, allowing Democrats to maintain control of the chamber while narrowly losing the House.

    There were several examples of this in Michigan last year. While there was no Senate race, the state held elections for key statewide offices, including governor, attorney general and secretary of state. The Republican candidates for these positions promoted false claims that Biden had not won the 2020 election legitimately.

    The result was that none of them came close to winning any of these races. This was most evident in the gubernatorial contest, where Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer turned what should have been a close race against Republican Tudor Dixon into a double-digit blowout.

    If Republicans are going to want to compete in Michigan in 2024 – or any swing-state Senate races in two years – primary voters will likely need to choose more mainstream candidates than they did in 2022.

    Of course, it won’t just be about individual candidates. It will be about regional trends as well.

    One of the biggest electoral changes in the past decade has been the Republican breakthrough in Great Lakes states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They went from voting to the left of the nation in the 2012 presidential election to voting to the nation’s right in 2016 and 2020. This was in large part because of Trump’s appeal to White voters without a college degree.

    But Trump may not be on the ballot in 2024, and it’s unclear whether the pro-Republican trend in these Great Lakes states will continue without him.

    Look at what happened last year. Michigan voted to the left of the nation in US House races. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin voted basically in line with the nation, once you account for uncontested races.

    Indeed, it would not be surprising to see a shift in how states vote relative to the nation if Trump is out of the picture. This has happened every eight years in recent cycles (e.g., 1976, 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008 and 2016).

    And that would make Democrats less vulnerable in Michigan than you might think, even without Stabenow as their nominee. Keep in mind that Democrats haven’t lost a Senate race in the Wolverine State since 1994.

    A return to the pre-Trump era in Michigan and other key Great Lakes states may also mean that the advantage Republicans have held in the Electoral College relative to the popular vote in the two most recent presidential elections may not materialize in 2024.

    That’s something Democrats would certainly welcome going into 2024 after one of the closest midterm cycles of the past century.

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  • Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow won’t seek reelection in 2024 | CNN Politics

    Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow won’t seek reelection in 2024 | CNN Politics

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    Washington
    CNN
     — 

    Sen. Debbie Stabenow will not seek reelection in 2024, the longtime Michigan Democrat said Thursday, opening up a Senate seat in a key swing state.

    “Inspired by a new generation of leaders, I have decided to pass the torch in the U.S. Senate. I am announcing today that I will not seek re-election and will leave the U.S. Senate at the end of my term on January 3, 2025,” Stabenow, 72, said in a statement.

    Stabenow’s decision comes just months after Democrats held on to control of the Senate in the midterm elections. Senate Democrats were already facing a tough map in 2024, but Stabenow’s decision to retire puts another seat in a crucial swing state in play.

    Stabenow, who previously served in the Michigan state House and state Senate, first won election to Congress in 1996, winning a swing seat in Central Michigan. After two terms in the House, she won election to the Senate in 2000, unseating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham. In the Senate, she rose to become the current No. 3 Democrat in the chamber as chair of her caucus’s Policy and Communications Committee. She also currently chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee.

    “No one embodies the true Michigan spirit more than Debbie Stabenow,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement. “From the state legislature to the House of Representatives, and for the last two decades in the United States Senate, Debbie has made a difference for Michiganders every step along the way.”

    Democrats are defending 23 of the 34 Senate seats up for reelection next year, including three seats in states that backed former President Donald Trump by at least 8 points in 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

    Besides Michigan, the party is also defending seats in other battleground states such as Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    In the wake of Stabenow’s announcement, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is closely looking at running for Senate, a source close to the congresswoman’s team told CNN.

    Other potential candidates for the seat include Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga and Rep.-elect John James and Democratic Reps. Dan Kildee and Debbie Dingell and Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who drew national attention last year in a floor speech pushing back against anti-LGBTQ attacks from a Republican colleague. James lost a closer-than-expected race to Stabenow in 2018 and then narrowly lost a bid for the state’s other Senate seat in 2020, before winning election to the House in November from a swing seat north of Detroit.

    Two high-profile Democrats took their names out of contention Thursday for Stabenow’s seat.

    A spokesman for Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who was reelected to a second term in November, confirmed that the Democrat will not run for Senate in 2024.

    Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in a statement to CNN that he is “fully focused” on his current role and “not seeking any other job.”

    The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, moved last year to Michigan, where the parents of his husband, Chasten, live.

    A spokesperson for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm expressed confidence Thursday in holding Stabenow’s seat.

    “In 2022, Michigan Democrats won resounding statewide victories, and we are confident Democrats will hold this Senate seat in 2024,” David Bergstein of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said in a statement.

    Mike Berg, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that the committee is going to “aggressively target this seat in 2024.”

    “Senate Democrats don’t even have a campaign chair yet and they are already dealing with a major retirement,” he said in a statement.

    This story has been updated with additional information.

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  • Republicans scramble to end impasse over McCarthy’s imperiled speakership bid | CNN Politics

    Republicans scramble to end impasse over McCarthy’s imperiled speakership bid | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Kevin McCarthy faces growing pressure to end the impasse over his imperiled speakership bid after two consecutive days of failed votes. But even after proposing major concessions to his hardline opponents late Wednesday, it remains unclear if the California Republican will be able to lock in the support he needs to win the gavel, and patience is wearing thin among lawmakers as the fight drags on.

    There are, however, some early indications that negotiations have made some headway as McCarthy and his allies attempt to chip away at opposition from a bloc of conservatives.

    In a series of new concessions first reported by CNN Wednesday night, McCarthy agreed to propose a rules change that would allow just one member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker, according to two sources familiar with the matter. McCarthy had initially proposed a five-member threshold, down from current conference rules that require half of the GOP to call for such a vote.

    He also agreed to allow for more members of the Freedom Caucus to serve on the powerful House Rules Committee, which dictates how and whether bills come to the floor, and to vote on a handful of bills that are priorities for the holdouts, including proposing term limits on members and a border security plan.

    Republican sources say that even if McCarthy’s offers are accepted, it would still not get him the 218 votes he needs to be speaker. While these concessions could attract some new support, other opponents have raised different concerns that have yet to be fully addressed.

    McCarthy said Wednesday evening that there was no deal yet to end the stalemate, but that there has been progress. “I think it’s probably best that people work through some more,” McCarthy said after the House had adjourned.

    The House is set to reconvene on Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.

    McCarthy has already made a number of concessions to his opponents, though so far his efforts have not been enough.

    But sources said the talks Wednesday between McCarthy allies and holdouts have been the most productive and serious ones to date. And in one sign of a breakthrough, a McCarthy-aligned super PAC agreed to not play in open Republican primaries in safe seats – one of the big demands that conservatives had asked for but that McCarthy had resisted until this point.

    Texas Rep. Chip Roy, one of the conservatives who has voted against McCarthy’s speakership bid, told GOP leaders that he thinks he can get 10 holdouts to come along if ongoing negotiations pan out, according to GOP sources familiar with the internal discussions, and that there are additional detractors who may be willing to vote “present.”

    Still, even if these negotiations prove successful and 10 lawmakers do flip to McCarthy’s column – which is far from certain – that won’t get McCarthy to the 218 votes needed to win the speakership, so he would still have more work to do.

    McCarthy also met separately Wednesday with the freshman members-elect who voted against him, sources told CNN.

    During the meeting, McCarthy reiterated some of the things he has already promised and went into greater detail about those concessions.

    McCathy’s direct outreach to the freshmen-elect offers another window into his strategy for winning over the holdouts.

    Incoming House Majority Whip Tom Emmer commented that the negotiations have been “very, very constructive.”

    “There were a whole bunch of members that were involved in this, and there are some folks now that are sitting down and talking about that discussion to see where they want to go with it next,” the Minnesota Republican said.

    The fight over the speakership, which began Tuesday on the first day of the 118th Congress, has thrown the new House GOP majority into chaos and undercut the party’s agenda.

    As the fight has stretched out, the situation has grown increasingly dire for McCarthy’s political future as even some of his Republican allies have begun to fear that the House GOP leader may not be able to pull off his gamble for speaker if the fight goes much longer.

    McCarthy has so far come up short in six rounds of voting. The final GOP tally for the sixth vote, which took place on Wednesday, was 201 for McCarthy, 20 for Florida Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida and one “present” vote.

    The House will remain paralyzed until this standoff is resolved. This is the first time an election for speaker has gone to multiple ballots since 1923.

    To be elected speaker, a candidate needs to win a majority of members who vote for a specific person on the House floor. That amounts to 218 votes if no member skips the vote or votes “present.”

    House Republicans won 222 seats in the new Congress, so for McCarthy to reach 218, he can only afford to lose four GOP votes.

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  • Chaos in Congress sends an ominous signal to Wall Street | CNN Business

    Chaos in Congress sends an ominous signal to Wall Street | CNN Business

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    New York
    CNN
     — 

    Many on Wall Street cheered last fall when the midterm elections ushered in a return of divided government in Washington.

    The old mantra is that gridlock is good because it means neither political party can mess things up.

    But the historic dysfunction playing out in Congress this week is a reminder that you should be careful what you wish for. While gridlock might be good for markets and the economy, complete paralysis is bad because, every so often, government needs to get stuff done.

    House Republicans’ inability to pick a speaker on the first ballot (or second or third) for the first time in a century raises an ominous question: If lawmakers can’t pick a speaker, how can they tackle truly thorny issues like raising the debt ceiling or responding to a potential recession?

    “We’re watching a slow-moving trainwreck collide with a dumpster fire,” Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN in a phone interview. “This is a clear indication we will have dysfunction for the entirety of this Congress, which heightens the risk around must-act deadlines such as the debt ceiling.”

    One New York Stock Exchange trader, a self-described conservative, told CNN on Tuesday the situation in the House is “disturbing” because it suggests lawmakers will struggle to get even more important things done.

    “This is a joke. The party can’t get its [stuff] together. It’s a disgrace,” said the trader, who requested anonymity to discuss the situation candidly.

    Even if Republicans eventually coalesce around Rep. Kevin McCarthy or a consensus candidate for speaker, the past few days have made plain to investors, economists and the public just how ungovernable the GOP majority in the House appears to be.

    “This is not gridlock so much as a rudderless ship without a captain,” Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group wrote in a note titled, “Burning down the House: Speaker vote opening act for 2 years of tail risk.”

    Krueger said the 4,000-page spending bill passed by Congress last month removed “a lot of the sharp objects” that could harm the economy.

    But lawmakers did not agree to tackle the debt ceiling, the borrowing limit that must be raised to avoid a calamitous US debt default.

    It’s not hard to imagine the ungovernable GOP majority clashing with Democrats and the White House this summer and fall over the debt ceiling — with the entire world economy hanging in the balance.

    Even before the House speaker stalemate, Goldman Sachs warned late last year that 2023 could bring the scariest debt ceiling fight since that infamous 2011 episode that cost America its perfect AAA credit score.

    In the past, brinksmanship over the debt ceiling eventually gave way to a compromise, though often not until significant pressure was applied by business leaders, financial markets — or both.

    It’s not clear how a debate over the debt ceiling will play out this time though, given the narrowly divided Congress and skepticism from Republicans about corporate America.

    “Our concern is that an increasingly populist GOP is less tied to big business influence, while a narrow majority amplifies their influence,” Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

    Of course, the “House of Cards”-style drama playing out in Congress is not the most pressing issue facing the economy and investors right now.

    The biggest questions concern whether the US economy is about to stumble into a recession (or a “slowcession,” if you ask Moody’s) and how long the Federal Reserve will keep up its fight against inflation.

    Later this week, on Friday, investors will be laser-focused not on McCarthy’s fate but on the monthly jobs report and what it says about efforts to cool down the labor market.

    Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel, dismissed the House speaker race as a “big, fat nothing-burger” for the market and said it was “just noise.”

    “It’s all about the Fed,” Frankel said.

    And yet the stalemate in the House underscores how hard it will be for lawmakers to aggressively respond to a potential recession or another crisis in the next two years.

    Although there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about a soft landing, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan warns a recession is still the most likely outcome.

    Greenspan, senior economic adviser at Advisors Capital Management, said in a discussion posted online that inflation will not cool enough to avoid “at least a mild recession” induced by the Fed.

    “We may have a brief period of calm on the inflation front, but I think it will be too little too late,” Greenspan said.

    If there is a recession, the chaos in Washington suggests the economy may not be able to count on a timely rescue from Congress this time around.

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  • McCarthy takes desperation for speakership to new level | CNN Politics

    McCarthy takes desperation for speakership to new level | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Kevin McCarthy is so desperate to be speaker, he’s ready to gut his own power just to get the job.

    The California Republican unveiled major concessions on Wednesday evening after he was stung by right-wing radicals who blocked his bid for power in six humiliating votes – a farcical debut for the new GOP-led House.

    The moves – just proposals for now that have not been agreed upon – could not only enshrine the chaotic instability of the tiny new Republican majority, they could also make him a permanent hostage of his party’s most extreme voices. And a neutered speaker unable to force his members into hard votes could have grave implications with Congress facing critical decisions later this year, including a need to raise the government’s borrowing limit – a duty that if not fulfilled could pitch the US and global economies into crisis.

    CNN’s Manu Raju and Melanie Zanona reported late Wednesday that McCarthy had agreed to a rule change that would allow a single member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The top Republican also agreed to more power for the far-right Freedom Caucus, which would help shape how and when bills get to the floor. The concessions are likely to concern many more moderate members of the incoming majority, who fear their electorates in swing seats will be turned off by more extremism.

    The proposals surfaced after the new House majority finally agreed on something Wednesday: following another day of feuding and insults, they narrowly voted to adjourn their futile search for a speaker until Thursday.

    Cheers that erupted from Republican benches when the vote closed reflected the risible state of the House’s new GOP management, which is unable to perform the only task it currently has – choosing a leader – and is holding up the functioning of the chamber.

    The idea that a fresh new majority is riding into town to do the American peoples’ business is in tatters. The mess in the new House on Tuesday and Wednesday suggested that every tough vote, and even easy ones, in the new House could be gummed up by the reality of a dysfunctional majority when small groups of members could shut the chamber down.

    On one side is McCarthy, who is refusing to cede his personal aspirations for power despite growing evidence he may never win the votes he needs in his own party. Even if he does squeak through after caving repeatedly to his critics, he will be a fatally weakened speaker.

    “The country or Kevin McCarthy. Which should have more weight?” said recently retired GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, who is now a CNN political analyst.

    On the other side is a band of right-wing zealots, holding their party, the House and the country hostage – some with no clear objective other than to destroy the idea of governance itself. For them, chaos is the point.

    “He’s a desperate guy whose vote share is dropping with every subsequent vote and I’m ready to vote all night, all week, all month, and never for that person,” Matt Gaetz, the Florida congressman leading the “Never Kevin” caucus, said.

    But as humiliation piled on humiliation for the California lawmaker, there was the merest hint of a lifeline as a divide inside the anti-McCarthy block began to open.

    Several lawmakers who want far-reaching changes to the way the House works reported genuine progress in talks with McCarthy. One of their number, Texas Rep. Chip Roy, predicted he could bring over 10 votes if the talks pan out.

    Still the math looks tough for McCarthy since the Gaetz bloc is holding firm and McCarthy can only afford to lose four GOP votes and still win the speakership.

    Even as he nurses hopes that intense talks with rebels could still provide a narrow path to victory, pressure is building inexorably on McCarthy.

    The question is whether another day of pointless voting on Thursday will prompt members to begin to consider whether he should step aside for a more universally trusted colleague – perhaps Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, for instance. Many Republicans are complaining that their hopes for quickly wielding power and throttling the Biden administration have been dashed.

    While another Groundhog Day in the House didn’t produce a new speaker, it did offer hints on how an endgame in the battle for the speaker’s gavel may develop. It also provided insight into the new balance of power in Washington and how Congress will work (or won’t) in the months ahead.

    If the Republican leader cannot demonstrate progress when the House meets for yet another vote on the speaker on Thursday, he will be in deep trouble. After just staving off what would have been a humiliating roll call vote on Wednesday evening, it emerged that McCarthy had made yet more concessions.

    McCarthy also met Roy, a holdout who has been demanding changes to the procedures that govern House business, and freshman members among the 20 or so Republicans who have been voting against him. GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, who is supporting McCarthy, said that the 20 lawmakers who opposed the would-be speaker were split into two groups – those who want substantive rules changes and those who just don’t like the longtime GOP leader.

    “If it’s the latter, it’s not as constructive because it shouldn’t be about the personality, it should be about the process, but I don’t know. I have no sense of how many are in either camp,” he told CNN.

    But sources also admitted that the new proposals, even if accepted, would not win over all the holdouts McCarthy needs. And the continuing brouhaha raises a deeper question of why the GOP leader, who has had weeks to get his majority solidified, still cannot get it done. Any incoming speaker who has proven so incapable of getting his coalition in line will be perennially at risk of being swept out of office.

    In impassioned floor speeches and interviews, Roy has argued that the House is finally having consequential debates. Under recent Democratic and Republican speakers, normal order and the sequencing of new laws through the committee process and debates on the House floor have been curtailed as severe partisanship and gridlock causes leaders to enforce ruthless party-line discipline.

    Often, multiple funding bills on everything from farming to defense and transportation to space are lumped together in massive end-of-year omnibus bills like the mammoth $1.7 trillion spending package that Congress finally passed in December. Multiple Republican members appeared on CNN on Wednesday making reasoned arguments about the need to mend a broken institution, to open the House’s business to the public and to conduct a proper appropriations process through committees with time for full debates, budget assessments and amendments.

    “I really think this is democracy in action,” North Carolina Republican Rep. Dan Bishop told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “If you are not satisfied with Washington as it is, then you can’t just be satisfied doing the same thing.”

    The problem, however, is that Congress has resorted to omnibus bills in recent years for a reason – it has been so polarized and dysfunctional that the only way to get any bill to the president’s desk is to cram all the spending in together.

    So while well intentioned, the aspirations for reform could just cause more dysfunction.

    The other block of anti-McCarthy votes looks a lot harder to sway. The likes of Gaetz, Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Bob Good of Virginia and Ralph Norman of South Carolina appear no closer to voting to make him speaker.

    “I’m not going to support Kevin,” another holdout, Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, said on Wednesday, reinforcing his hard no position.

    Apart from securing a concession from McCarthy that would make him almost a toothless speaker – with the return of a rule that would allow any member to call for a vote to unseat him – it’s not often clear what these members want. Or if there’s anything that McCarthy could give them that would change their minds.

    Some Republicans accuse their colleagues of grandstanding and of using the spotlight to raise campaign cash and to drum up appearances on conservative media. If there’s a philosophical grounding to the opposition, it’s as the latest expression of the longtime anti-establishment wing of the GOP that seeks to neutralize government itself.

    This politics of destruction was sent into overdrive by ex-President Donald Trump, with his vows to drain the Washington “swamp.” And it was expressed most eloquently by Steve Bannon at the start of the Trump administration as “the deconstruction of the administrative state.” The problem for McCarthy – who has cozied up to Trump and often appeased the zealots – is how to negotiate with someone whose main aspiration is chaos.

    The elephant wasn’t in the room.

    Early on Wednesday, Trump delivered the kind of full-throated endorsement of McCarthy that the Californian must believe he was owed after his obsequious support of the ex-president following the January 6, 2021, insurrection.

    “VOTE FOR KEVIN, CLOSE THE DEAL, TAKE THE VICTORY,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “REPUBLICANS, DO NOT TURN A GREAT TRIUMPH INTO A GIANT & EMBARRASSING DEFEAT.”

    It was the kind of social media blast that once would have had Republican members leaping into line. But no longer. It didn’t appear to change a single vote.

    Norman, for instance, rebuffed the ex-president’s call.

    “I disagree with Trump. This is our fight. This isn’t Trump’s – and I support Trump. I disagree with it. Kevin is the one who’s going to censor him,” Norman said. In another sign that Trump’s spell may have broken, Boebert said that her “favorite president” had called rebels opposing McCarthy and told them to knock it off.

    “I think this needs to be reversed, the president needs to tell Kevin McCarthy that, ‘Sir you do not have the votes and it’s time to withdraw.’”

    Her rebuke was the latest sign that after two years in political exile, a disastrous intervention in the midterms and a low energy 2024 campaign launch, Trump’s juice isn’t what it once was in GOP ranks in the House. While the ex-president’s rapport with the Republican base surely remains intact, this kind of insubordination is unlikely to have gone down well in Mar-a-Lago.

    The spectacle in the House on Wednesday had more in common with the chaos and recrimination that unfolds in parliaments in Europe or Israel, where it can sometimes take weeks or months to arrive at a leader or governing majority, than in the US House, where the vote for speaker is normally a formality.

    And this is just not some internecine struggle. The speaker is, after all, second in the line of presidential succession behind the vice president.

    “It’s embarrassing for the country,” President Joe Biden said on Wednesday, as he capitalized on the chaos in an event in Kentucky highlighting bipartisan political leadership over his massive infrastructure package, appearing with Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.

    “I’m not making a partisan (point), that’s the reality – that to be able to have a Congress that can’t function is just embarrassing.”

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  • House adjourns for second day without electing a speaker with McCarthy’s bid in peril | CNN Politics

    House adjourns for second day without electing a speaker with McCarthy’s bid in peril | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Kevin McCarthy suffered yet another stinging defeat on Wednesday as he lost in the sixth round of voting to elect a speaker – a major blow that increasingly imperils his bid and heightens uncertainty over whether he can still secure the gavel or if a viable candidate will emerge as an alternative.

    The House voted Wednesday evening to adjourn until 12 p.m. ET on Thursday as Republicans scramble to find a path forward.

    The House GOP majority has been stuck at a contentious stalemate amid opposition to McCarthy from a group of conservatives. The fight, which began on the first day of the 118th Congress, has thrown the new House GOP majority into chaos and undercut the party’s agenda.

    The House will continue to be paralyzed until this standoff is resolved. The situation has grown dire for McCarthy’s political future as Republican allies are beginning to fear that the House GOP leader may not be able to pull off his gamble for speaker if the fight goes much longer.

    It’s not at all clear whether McCarthy and his allies will be able to lock down the votes – and the longer the fight drags on, the more imperiled his speakership bid has become. But there were signs Wednesday that negotiations are progressing.

    In a major concession, first reported by CNN, McCarthy has agreed to propose a rules change that would allow just one member to call for a vote to oust a sitting speaker, according to two sources familiar with the matter. McCarthy had initially proposed a five-member threshold, down from current conference rules that require half of the GOP to call for such a vote. Many members had been concerned about giving in to the far-right on this matter since it could weaken the speakership and cause chaos in the ranks.

    In two more concessions, he’s also agreed to allow for more members of the Freedom Caucus to serve on the powerful House Rules Committee, which dictates how and whether bills come to the floor, and to vote on a handful of bills that are priorities for the holdouts, including proposing term limits on members and a border security plan.

    Nothing is final, however, since the negotiations are ongoing.

    Republican sources say that even if McCarthy’s offer is accepted, it would still not get him the 218 votes he needs to be speaker. While these concessions could attract some new support, other opponents have raised different concerns that have yet to be fully addressed.

    After a series of failed speaker votes earlier in the day, the House adjourned for several hours as Republicans continued talks.

    Texas Rep. Chip Roy, one of the conservatives who has voted against McCarthy’s speakership bid, told GOP leaders that he thinks he can get 10 holdouts to come along if these ongoing negotiations pan out, according to GOP sources familiar with the internal discussions, and that there are additional detractors who may be willing to vote “present.”

    Sources said the talks Wednesday between McCarthy allies and holdouts have been the most productive and serious ones to date. And in one sign of a breakthrough, a McCarthy-aligned super PAC agreed to not play in open Republican primaries in safe seats – one of the big demands that conservatives had asked for but that McCarthy had resisted until this point.

    “We’ve had more discussions in the last two days as a body sitting there, than we’ve done in frickin’ four years,” Roy said when leaving the Capitol Wednesday night.

    Still, even if these negotiations prove successful and 10 lawmakers do flip to McCarthy’s column – which is far from certain – that doesn’t get McCarthy to the 218 votes to win the speakership, so he would still have more work to do.

    Incoming House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said Wednesday evening that the negotiations over the next speaker have been “very, very constructive.”

    “There were a whole bunch of members that were involved in this and there are some folks now that are sitting down and talking about that discussion to see where they want to go with it next,” the Minnesota Republican said.

    House Republicans hold 222 seats in the new Congress, so for McCarthy to reach 218, he can only afford to lose four GOP votes. His obstacle is that he faces a small but determined contingent of hardline conservatives who have so far been successful in denying him the votes to secure the gavel.

    The group has used the leverage they have in the razor-thin Republican majority to extract concessions. McCarthy has already given in to a number of their demands, including making it increasingly easier to topple the sitting speaker, but so far his efforts have not been enough.

    The House convened on Wednesday to continue voting after three rounds of votes on Tuesday. McCarthy has come up short each time, failing to hit the majority threshold needed to secure the speakership.

    As the votes stretched on Tuesday, the situation appeared to become even more dire for McCarthy, as the vote count in opposition to his speaker bid grew.

    The tally for the first ballot in the speaker vote was 203 for McCarthy, with 19 Republicans voting for other candidates. The tally for the second ballot was 203 votes for McCarthy with 19 votes for GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio. In the third round of voting, there were 202 votes for McCarthy and 20 votes for Jordan, with Rep. Byron Donalds joining the 19 GOP lawmakers who had voted against McCarthy in the first two rounds.

    It was the first time an election for speaker went to multiple ballots since 1923.

    “My vote yesterday was basically to break a deadlock, because we were deadlocked, and we were not getting anywhere,” Donalds, a Florida Republican, said Wednesday on “CNN This Morning.” “Right now, (McCarthy) doesn’t have a pathway to get there. If that reemerges, yeah, I can be there, that’s fine, but what’s necessary now is that Republicans come together and find a way to elect a speaker.”

    In the fourth round of voting, 20 Republicans voting together for Donalds as the group switched their collective support from Jordan to Donalds. Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana voted present, lowering McCarthy’s threshold to 217.

    Spartz told CNN she did so because she wanted to allow for more negotiations within the conference to address the concerns of the 20 members.

    The final tally for the fifth vote was again 201 votes for McCarthy, 20 for Donalds and one present vote.

    The final tally for the sixth vote was the same: 201 for McCarthy, 20 for Donalds and one present vote.

    Trump is watching closely as the dynamic plays out on Capitol Hill and his public support has been a key focus of McCarthy’s efforts.

    Two GOP sources familiar with the matter said McCarthy’s allies were panicking on Tuesday after the former president gave a tepid response to NBC News when asked about his support for McCarthy. The former president also declined to issue a statement Monday reiterating his endorsement of McCarthy despite a behind-the-scenes effort from several McCarthy allies to get Trump to do so, two sources said.

    One close McCarthy ally then began working behind the scenes to do clean-up duty and started pressing for Trump to put out a statement clarifying his support. McCarthy and Trump then connected by phone, where McCarthy said Trump expressed he was still committed to backing him. Trump put out a strong endorsement on Truth Social Wednesday morning, imploring Republicans not to “TURN A GREAT TRIUMPH INTO A GIANT & EMBARRASSING DEFEAT” and urging them to vote for McCarthy.

    Although Trump’s statement might not move the needle among the fiercest McCarthy foes, one of the sources said McCarthy world was worried about looking “weak” and like he was bleeding support, so they felt it was important to reverse the narrative.

    Gaetz, one of the House Republicans opposing McCarthy’s bid for speaker, dismissed Trump’s latest effort to help the California Republican as “sad.”

    “This changes neither my view of McCarthy nor Trump nor my vote,” Gaetz said in a statement to Fox News Digital on Wednesday, shortly after Trump came to McCarthy’s defense in the Truth Social post.

    Long a staunch Trump ally, Gaetz’s refusal to bow to Trump’s desire for a McCarthy speakership raises new questions about the former president’s dwindling influence over Republicans in the midst of his third presidential campaign.

    “If Matt Gaetz is ignoring you, that’s not a good sign,” said one Trump ally who is involved with his 2024 campaign.

    Trump has been making calls on McCarthy’s behalf over the last 24 hours in an attempt to break the conservative blockade against him, this person said, but his efforts have so far been fruitless.

    One lawmaker who spoke with Trump late Tuesday suggested the former president should run for speaker himself, according to a person briefed on the call. Trump demurred and continued to push this person to support McCarthy, claiming that he would be a solid “America First” supporter.

    This story and headline have been updated with additional developments.

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  • Biden and McConnell show off their bipartisan bonafides in Kentucky | CNN Politics

    Biden and McConnell show off their bipartisan bonafides in Kentucky | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    A rare scene unfolded Wednesday in Covington, Kentucky: President Joe Biden stood alongside Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, as the two men promoted a major bipartisan legislative accomplishment they achieved together.

    The president’s visit to McConnell’s home state to herald the implementation of the massive $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that McConnell and 18 other Senate Republicans voted for, and that Biden signed into law in 2021, marked his first domestic trip of the new year. The trip was aimed at sending an unmistakable message as Biden kicks off the second half of his first term: Even in a newly divided Congress, the Biden White House still sees room for bipartisanship.

    Biden thanked McConnell for working across the aisle on the law.

    “It wouldn’t have happened without your hand. It just wouldn’t have gotten done and I want to thank you for that,” Biden said to McConnell during his remarks.

    He added that while he and McConnell don’t agree on a lot, the Kentucky Republican is someone you can trust.

    “He’s a man of his word. When he gives you his word, you can take it to the bank, you can count on it, and he’s willing to find common ground to get things done for the country. So thank you, Mitch. Thank you,” Biden said.

    The scene was a stark message of bipartisanship and pragmatism sent by Biden and McConnell as the two old Senate colleagues came together at the same time that House Republicans found themselves falling further into divisive chaos over Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s bid to become speaker. As Biden spoke in Covington, McCarthy suffered a fourth defeat in his push to lead the House of Representatives.

    The backdrop for Biden’s visit was the Brent Spence Bridge that connects Cincinnati, Ohio, and Covington, Kentucky, and is known to be one of the busiest freight routes in the country. Officials say the structure carries far more traffic than it is meant to support.

    It’s also a bridge that Biden once promised he would overhaul: “We’re going to fix that damn bridge of yours going into Kentucky,” Biden said during a CNN town hall in Cincinnati in the summer of 2021, as the infrastructure bill appeared to be on the cusp of passage.

    On Wednesday, the White House announced more than $2 billion from the infrastructure law would go towards upgrading the Brent Spence bridge and other “economically significant bridges” around the country.

    Biden’s trip to the Ohio-Kentucky border on Wednesday will also feature Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and former Republican Sen. Rob Portman, as well as Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio.

    White House officials say that the show of bipartisanship is aimed at sending a clear signal that as Republicans take control of the House, Biden remains convinced that there will still be opportunities for bipartisan legislative wins.

    The White House made it clear on Wednesday that they had no intention of getting involved in the drama playing out in the House. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters traveling with the president that the Biden administration is “going to let the process play out.”

    “It’s not my problem. I think it’s embarrassing the way it’s taking so long,” the president told reporters as he departed the White House Wednesday.

    McConnell’s decision to appear with Biden on Wednesday also signals the GOP leader’s willingness to work alongside the president, even as many of his Republican colleagues in the House take a hardline stance against compromising with Democrats.

    While White House officials regularly invite all congressional members to attend events Biden holds in their home states, Republicans frequently turn down the opportunity – making McConnell’s decision to join the president this week all the more notable.

    Biden himself sought to downplay the importance of the pairing on Monday.

    “We’ve been friends a long time. Everybody is talking about how significant it is. It has nothing to do about our relationship,” he said as he returned to the White House from his winter vacation in St. Croix. “It’s a giant bridge, man. It’s a lot of money. It’s important.”

    McConnell, during his remarks ahead of the president, noted how the infrastructure law is an example of government working to solve problems for everyday Americans.

    “If you look at the political alignment of everyone involved, it’s the government is working together to solve a major problem at a time when the country needs to see examples like this, of coming together and getting an outcome,” McConnell said.

    A number of Cabinet officials also plan to travel later this week to promote the infrastructure law. Vice President Kamala Harris will stop in Chicago, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will visit New London, Connecticut, on Wednesday where they will each “discuss how the president’s economic plan is rebuilding our infrastructure, creating good-paying jobs – jobs that don’t require a four-year degree – and revitalizing communities left behind,” a White House official said.

    Over the coming weeks, Biden is expected to reiterate his bipartisan achievements in stops around the country as the Republican majority in the House begins its work, culminating in his yearly State of the Union address. Biden’s aides have begun work on that speech and have made bipartisanship a central theme.

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  • House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes | CNN Politics

    House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The new House GOP majority is locked in a chaotic once-in-a-century fight to determine who will serve as the next speaker after Republican Kevin McCarthy failed to secure the necessary support to win in three rounds of voting on Tuesday. The House is now adjourned until Wednesday at noon as Republicans scramble to find a path forward.

    McCarthy faces a small but determined contingent of hardline conservatives who are intent on denying him the votes to secure the gavel. The top House Republican has defiantly vowed to stay in the race as he continues his increasingly imperiled bid for speaker. But the longer the fight drags on, the more uncertainty there is over whether he can win. The last time an election for speaker went to multiple ballots was in 1923.

    The contentious, drawn out fight threatens to deepen divides among House Republicans with McCarthy’s political career on the line. And the deal-making McCarthy has engaged in to try to win over critics may mean he has a weaker hand to play in his position of authority if he does become speaker.

    For now, McCarthy remains adamant he will not give up, with people close to him summing up his mentality as this: “We’re going to war,” a senior GOP source tells CNN. “Never backing down.”

    The conservatives opposing McCarthy are using the leverage they have in the razor-thin Republican majority to extract concessions as they threaten to deny the GOP leader critical votes. McCarthy has already given in to a number of their demands, including making it easier to topple the sitting speaker, but it is unclear whether his efforts will be enough.

    To be elected speaker, a candidate needs to win a majority of members who vote for a specific person on the House floor. That amounts to 218 votes if no member skips the vote or votes “present.”

    House Republicans hold 222 seats in the new Congress – so for McCarthy to reach 218, he would only be able to afford to lose four GOP votes.

    The tally for the first ballot in the speaker vote was 203 for McCarthy, with 19 Republicans voting for other candidates.

    The tally for the second ballot was 203 votes for McCarthy with 19 votes for GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio. Jordan, to show that he is not vying for the job, nominated McCarthy ahead of the vote on the second ballot. That move did not deter McCarthy critics from voting for Jordan, however.

    In the third round of voting, there were 202 votes for McCarthy and 20 votes for Jordan with Rep. Byron Donalds joining the 19 GOP lawmakers who had voted against McCarthy in the first two rounds.

    A closed-door meeting of House Republicans on Capitol Hill grew tense and heated Tuesday morning as uncertainty grew over McCarthy’s fate.

    McCarthy raised his voice and was animated as he teed off against his opponents and detailed concessions he has made, according to two sources. “I’ve earned this job,” he said.

    After the far-right House Freedom Caucus denied his ascension to the speakership in 2015, McCarthy spent years courting the conservative wing of his party and worked hard to stay in former President Donald Trump’s good graces.

    McCarthy has gotten some key backup from Trump, who publicly endorsed his speaker bid and encouraged others to support McCarthy. His congressional allies have also banded together in effort to act as a counterweight to his critics.

    But when a red wave never materialized in the November midterms, the razor-thin majority that resulted for Republicans empowered a small band of conservatives – long distrustful of McCarthy – to make demands.

    What has unfolded over the last two months is an all-out scramble for the speakership, which has taken the form of strategy sessions with close allies on and off Capitol Hill, intense negotiations over rules changes and non-stop phone calls with members.

    McCarthy has been in deal-making mode, but if he does win the gavel, some of the concessions he has made may make it more difficult for him to stave off future challenge to his speakership.

    In one change that could weaken his hand in the future, McCarthy has told lawmakers – as first reported by CNN – that he would support a threshold as low as five Republicans to trigger a vote on deposing the speaker, known as the “motion to vacate” the speaker’s chair, a major concession for him and one that moderates worry will be used as a constant cudgel over his head.

    This story and headline have been updated with additional developments Tuesday.

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  • Meet the history-makers of the 118th Congress | CNN Politics

    Meet the history-makers of the 118th Congress | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The 118th Congress, being sworn in Tuesday, will eclipse several records set by the outgoing Congress.

    It features a record-setting number of women, 149 – expanding female representation by just two members above the record set by the 117th Congress. Overall, women of color will also break a record for their representation this year, with 58 serving, and within the House alone, there will be a record number of both Latinas and Black women.

    The new Congress also boasts the House’s first Gen-Z lawmaker and the longest-serving woman in congressional history.

    Some newcomers, Republicans and Democrats alike, also achieved historic firsts in their own states, ushering a diverse group into a politically split Washington.

    Here’s a look at the lawmakers, some new and some returning, who are making history in each chamber during this session of Congress.

    Alabama: Republican Katie Britt is the first woman elected to the Senate from Alabama, winning an open seat vacated by her onetime boss, GOP Sen. Richard Shelby, who held the seat for nearly four decades.

    Alabama’s two previous female senators both were appointed to fill vacancies.

    California: Democrat Alex Padilla will be the first elected Latino senator from California, winning a special election for the remainder of Vice President Kamala Harris’ term as well as an election for a full six-year term. Padilla, the son of Mexican immigrant parents, was appointed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom to the seat Harris vacated when she became vice president.

    Oklahoma: Republican Markwayne Mullin will be the first Native American senator from Oklahoma in almost 100 years, winning the special election to succeed GOP Sen. Jim Inhofe, who is resigning. Mullin, a member of the Cherokee Nation, represented the state’s 2nd Congressional District in the last Congress. Democrat Robert Owen, also a member of the Cherokee Nation, represented Oklahoma in the Senate from 1907 to 1925.

    AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani will be the first Latino Republican elected to Congress from Arizona. Ciscomani, who was born in Mexico and immigrated to the US with his family as a child, previously worked at the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and was a senior adviser to Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey.

    CA-42: Democrat Robert Garcia will be the first out LGBTQ immigrant elected to Congress. Garcia, who immigrated from Lima, Peru, in the early 1980s at the age of 5, has been the mayor of Long Beach.

    CO-08: Democrat Yadira Caraveo will be the first Latina elected to Congress from Colorado. Caraveo, a state representative and the daughter of Mexican immigrant parents, defeated Republican state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer to win the seat located north of Denver.

    FL-10: Democrat Maxwell Frost will be the first Gen-Z member of Congress after winning the open seat for Florida’s 10th Congressional District.

    The 25-year-old representative-elect told CNN’s Poppy Harlow on November 9 that when President Joe Biden called to congratulate him, the president recalled being too young to be sworn in as a senator when he was first elected at age 29.

    “He asked me if it was the same situation. I said, ‘No, Mr. President, you had me beat on that. I’m already old enough to be sworn in on January 3.’ So, it was great to talk with him. You know, he was elected at a very young age, too, so he understands that experience,” Frost said on “CNN This Morning.”

    IL-03: Democrat Delia Ramirez will be the first Latina elected to Congress from Illinois. Ramirez, who served as a Chicago-area state representative and is the daughter of Guatemalan immigrants, was also the first Guatemalan American to serve in the Illinois General Assembly.

    IL-17: Democrat Eric Sorensen will be the first out gay person elected to Congress from Illinois. Sorensen, a former Rockford and Quad Cities meteorologist, defeated Republican Esther Joy King in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos.

    MI-10: Republican John James of Michigan will be the first Black Republican elected to Congress from Michigan, winning the open-seat race for the redrawn 10th Congressional District in the Detroit suburbs.

    MI-13: Democrat Shri Thanedar will be the first Indian American elected to Congress from Michigan. Thaneder, who immigrated to the US from India, was elected to the Michigan House in 2020 and unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2018.

    NY-03: Republican George Santos won the first House election between two out gay candidates – in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. Santos, the son of Brazilian immigrants, defeated Democrat Robert Zimmerman for the Long Island-based seat.

    Santos is entering the House under intense scrutiny after admitting to lying about key pieces of his background while state and federal prosecutors look into his finances and fellow lawmakers voice their outrage over his resume fabrications.

    OH-09: Democrat Marcy Kaptur will become the longest-serving woman in Congress when she’s sworn in to represent the state’s 9th Congressional District for her 21st term. Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982 and is currently the longest-serving woman in House history, will break the record set by Barbara Mikulski, who represented Maryland in the House and Senate for a combined 40 years.

    OR-5 and 6: Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer and Democrat Andrea Salinas will be the first two Latinos elected to Congress from Oregon.

    Chavez-DeRemer, who is Mexican American, will represent the 5th Congressional District, succeeding Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader.

    Salinas, whose father immigrated to the US from Mexico, won the state’s newly created 6th Congressional District.

    PA-12: Democrat Summer Lee will be the first Black woman elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. Lee, who had been a Pittsburgh-area state representative, will succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Mike Doyle.

    VT: Democrat Becca Balint will be the first woman and first openly LGBTQ person elected to Congress from Vermont. She will succeed Rep. Peter Welch, who was elected to represent the state in the Senate.

    WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will be the first Latino Democrat elected to Congress from Washington state. Gluesenkamp Perez, an auto repair shop owner whose father immigrated to the US from Mexico, defeated Republican Joe Kent to succeed GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, who finished third in the August top-two primary. Herrera Beutler was herself the first Hispanic member of Congress from Washington state.

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  • Whitmer urges both parties to ‘stand up’ to violent rhetoric and threats as she embarks on second term | CNN Politics

    Whitmer urges both parties to ‘stand up’ to violent rhetoric and threats as she embarks on second term | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, sworn in for a second term Sunday, called the sentencing last week of two men convicted of plotting to kidnap her “just,” while urging both parties to confront threats and violent rhetoric.

    “Whether it is someone harassing Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh or Congressman Fred Upton here in Michigan, or me, or our attorney general, or secretary of state, it’s unacceptable,” she told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins in an interview the day she was sworn in. “But I do think it’s important that people on both sides of the aisle, who care more about our democracy than their political agenda, stand up and take it on.”

    Thirteen people were charged in the kidnapping plot, with the group discussing sending a bomb to the governor. The co-leaders of the plot were sentenced last week to 16 years and nearly 20 years in federal prison, respectively, after prosecutors had sought a life sentence in both their cases.

    Whitmer, who had dealt with an unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic and issued stay-at-home orders that made her a target, expressed concern over how the plot has been described, saying, “There’s a tendency to minimize some of these threats.”

    “They weren’t planning to ransom me, they weren’t going to keep me, they were planning to assassinate me. And the plot has been covered as a kidnapping plot,” she said. “There was one person who showed up on, you know, on a Supreme Court justice’s lawn and turned himself in, and it was covered as an assassination attempt. And so I think that when you look at the facts of both of those, and you see how differently they’re covered, I do, you know, have concern about the language that we use, especially when women are a target as opposed to men.”

    The Justice Department charged the man who was arrested near Kavanaugh’s house in Maryland with attempting or threatening to kidnap or murder a US judge.

    Whitmer, first elected governor in 2018, said the threat against her had “changed how I assess going into situations” and “changed my concern for all the people around me.”

    “I would be lying if I told you I was unfazed,” she said, adding, “I think it’s important to understand, I’m an ordinary person. I’ve got an extraordinary job and have served in extraordinary times. I’m a mom. I’m a daughter.”

    After the challenges of the past few years, Whitmer said she’s “excited” about starting a new term.

    “There was so much chaos, politically and in the environment, I didn’t know if I would, you know, get an opportunity to serve for four more years,” the Democratic governor said. “I never imagined I’d win by almost 11 points and come in with a whole new legislature.”

    Whitmer sailed to a resounding victory in November, beating her Republican challenger Tudor Dixon 55% to 44%, while Democrats also won a majority in the Michigan legislature – giving them control of both chambers and the governorship for the first time in nearly four decades. Among her top priorities, Whitmer listed public education, economic development, protecting the Great Lakes and ensuring people have access to safe drinking water and high-speed internet. She also mentioned repealing the retirement tax that Republicans passed last legislature and getting a 1931 state law banning abortion “off the books.”

    With her reelection in a pivotal swing state, Whitmer has furthered cemented her status as a national figure in the Democratic Party, but she has brushed off speculation about a 2024 White House bid while not completely closing the door to running for something else down the line.

    “I think doing my job well is the best way that I can contribute to the national Democratic Party – is to be able to be someone that they can point to and say, ‘This is what happens when you elect Democrats,’” she said, reflecting on how her 2022 campaign “talked about abortion in the most personal terms” and how she thinks that contributed to Democrats’ success.

    She anticipates President Joe Biden running for the White House again in 2024, telling CNN that he would have her “enthusiastic support” if he does.

    “I do not have plans to run for anything other than to spend the next four years serving this state as governor with a majority Democratic legislature for the first time in a long time,” Whitmer said, while also noting that she felt similarly when she left the state legislature in 2015, only later to run for governor in 2018.

    “I know enough about myself to know if there is something that needs to get done, and if there’s a role I can play, I will want to play it,” she said.

    But regardless of whether she runs for something again or not, Whitmer said she “will stay engaged one way or another,” reflecting on what’s to come after the governor’s mansion. “Michigan will always play an outsized role in the national politics, so I look forward to making sure that our voices are impactful and Michigan gets what we need and we’ve got leaders who serve every person.”

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  • ‘Have you heard I was 83?’: Hoyer on stepping back from House leadership | CNN Politics

    ‘Have you heard I was 83?’: Hoyer on stepping back from House leadership | CNN Politics

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    CNN
     — 

    The top three House Democrats who are stepping back from their leadership spots did not coordinate on their decisions to do so, outgoing Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said Sunday, adding that “the timing was right.”

    “Have you heard I was 83?” Hoyer quipped about his age in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union.”

    Hoyer’s departure from his leadership post, as well as the decisions by Nancy Pelosi and Jim Clyburn, both 82, to step down as House speaker and majority whip, respectively, represent a generational change for the Democratic Party in the chamber.

    “I think all of us have been around for some time and pretty much have a feel for the timing of decisions. And I think all three of us felt that this was the time,” Hoyer told Bash.

    Hoyer noted that the trio has led the House Democratic Caucus “for a long time.”

    “In that capacity, I think each of us made an individual decision. The timing was right,” he said.

    House Democrats chose current Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries of New York, 52, to replace Pelosi as top Democrat in the chamber. Massachusetts Rep. Katherine Clark, 59, who will serve as minority whip, and California Rep. Peter Aguilar, 43, who will lead the caucus, are a generation younger than their predecessors.

    The octogenarians, however, are still expected to have a presence in the incoming Congress. Clyburn will serve in a slightly demoted leadership role as assistant leader (the party’s No. 4 position), while Pelosi was recently designated “speaker emerita.” Hoyer said Sunday that he expects to still advise the new Democratic leaders.

    “Mr. Jeffries and I have talked. I think he wants me to continue to give advice and counsel and to be involved in decision making – albeit not as majority leader,” the Maryland Democrat told Bash.

    Reflecting on his career in leadership, Hoyer praised two people who he said will be remembered by history as giants: the late civil rights icon and longtime congressman John Lewis and Pelosi.

    “I think we have a very respectful relationship,” Hoyer said of Pelosi, with whom he has worked for years. “I think we have a business-like relationship but I like Nancy and I admire Nancy greatly. She is an extraordinary human being. She’s indefatigable. She has extraordinary energy.”

    He added: “And I think she’s probably the most effective political leader that I’ve worked with over the years.”

    Reminiscing on interning with the Baltimore-born Pelosi in the office of Maryland Rep. Daniel Brewster in the 1960s, Hoyer told Bash: “I think that story doesn’t get enough play.”

    “Nancy was sitting in the front office as receptionist, and I was sitting right behind her in sort of a little divided half wall handling academy appointments, opening mail, doing things that interns do or part-time employees do, and we were there together. Some 40 years later, we became the speaker and the majority leader,” he said.

    The two lawmakers, however, have not always had a straightforward relationship.

    Hoyer remarked that he was “obviously disappointed” when Pelosi endorsed Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha over him to become majority whip in 2006, though Hoyer won that race “pretty handily,” he recalled.

    A few years earlier, in 2001, Pelosi had defeated Hoyer to become House Democratic whip.

    Asked whether he would’ve liked to have become speaker had Pelosi not been in the picture, Hoyer replied: “Who wouldn’t? What politician in the House of Representatives would not like to be the speaker? Of course, I would.”

    “But very frankly, as I remarked to one reporter, I said I’m not sure I could have done a better job than Nancy and maybe not as good a job as Nancy,” he told Bash.

    Hoyer said he has not ruled out running for Congress in 2024: “I may. I may.”

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