Tag: political figures – intl

When China and Saudi Arabia meet, nothing matters more than oil | CNN Business

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Hong Kong
CNN Business
—

Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Saudi Arabia this week for the first time in nearly seven years, during which he is expected to sign billions of dollars of deals with the world’s largest oil exporter and meet leaders from across the Middle East.

The visit is a sign that China and the Gulf region are deepening their economic relations at a time when US-Saudi ties have crumbled over OPEC’s decision to slash crude oil supply. As Xi wrote in an article published in Saudi media, the trip was intended to strengthen China’s relations with the Arab world.

China is Saudi Arabia’s biggest trading partner and a source of growing investment. It’s also the world’s biggest buyer of oil. Saudi Arabia is China’s largest trading partner in the Middle East and the top global supplier of crude oil.

“Energy cooperation will be at the center of all discussions between the Saudi-Chinese leadership,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East and North Africa research team. “There is great recognition of the need to build a framework to ensure that this interdependence is accommodated politically, especially given the scope of energy transition in the West.”

Governments around the world have committed to drastically cutting carbon emissions over the coming decades. Countries such as Canada and Germany have doubled down on renewable energy investments to expedite their transition to net-zero economies.

The United States has significantly increased domestic oil and gas output since the 2000s, while accelerating its transition to clean energy.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February has triggered a global energy crisis that has left all countries racing to shore up supplies. And the West has further scrambled the oil markets by slapping an embargo and price cap on the world’s second biggest exporter of crude.

Energy security has also increasingly become a key priority for China, which is facing significant challenges of its own.

Last year, bilateral trade between Saudi Arabia and China hit $87.3 billion, up 30% from 2020, according to Chinese customs figures.

Much of the trade was focused on oil. China’s crude imports from Saudi Arabia stood at $43.9 billion in 2021, accounting for 77% of its total goods imports from the kingdom. That amount also makes up more than a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s total crude exports.

“Stability of energy supplies, in terms of both prices and quantities, is a key priority for Xi Jinping as the Chinese economy remains heavily reliant on oil and natural gas imports,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

The world’s second largest economy is heavily reliant on foreign oil and gas. 72% of its oil consumption was imported last year, according to official figures. 44% of natural gas demand was also from overseas.

At the 20th Party Congress in October, Xi stressed that ensuring energy security was a key priority. The comments came after a spate of severe power shortages and soaring global energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As the West shunned Russian crude in the months that followed the invasion, China took advantage of Moscow’s desperate search for new buyers. Between May and July, Russia was China’s No. 1 oil supplier, until Saudi Arabia regained the top spot in August.

“Diversity is a key ingredient for China’s long-term energy security because it cannot afford to put all of its eggs in one basket and turn itself into a captive of another power’s energy and geostrategic interests,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, a nonresident fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, a research institute based in DC.

“Although Russia is a source of cheaper supply chains, nobody can guarantee, with utmost certainty, that the China and Russia relationship will continue to shore up 50 years from now,” Aboudouh said.

The Saudi Press Agency cited Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman as saying Wednesday that the kingdom would remain China’s “credible and reliable partner in this field.”

Saudi Arabia also has strong motivations to deepen energy ties with China, according to Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

“The Saudis are concerned about losing market share in China in the face of a tsunami of heavily discounted Russian and Iranian crude,” he said. “Their goal is to ensure China remains a loyal customer even when the competitors offer [a] cheaper product.”

Oil prices have fallen back to where they were before the Ukraine war on fears of a sharp global economic slowdown. The extent to which the Chinese economy can pick up pace next year will have a huge bearing on how bad that slump will be.

Beyond security of supply, Saudi Arabia could offer Beijing another prize with bigger geopolitical ramifications.

Riyadh has been in talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in the Chinese currency, the yuan, rather than the US dollar, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Such a deal could be a boost to Beijing’s ambitions to expand the Chinese currency’s global influence.

It would also hurt the long-standing agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States that requires Saudi Arabia to sell its oil only for US dollars and to hold its reserves partly in US Treasuries, all in return for US security guarantees. The “petrodollar system” has helped preserve the dollar’s status as the top global reserve currency and payment medium for oil and other commodities.

Although Beijing and Riyadh never confirmed the reported talks, analysts said it was logical that the two sides would be exploring the possibility.

“In the near future, Saudi Arabia could sell some of its oil and receive revenues in Chinese yuan, which makes economic sense as China is the kingdom’s top trading partner,” said Naser Al Tamimi, senior associate research fellow at ISPI, an Italian think tank on international affairs.

Some believe it’s already happening, but that neither China nor the Saudis want to highlight it publicly.

“They know too well how sensitive this issue [is] for the United States,” said Luft. “Both parties are overexposed to the US currency and there is no reason for them to continue to conduct their bilateral trade in a third party’s currency, especially when this third party is no longer a friend of either.”

Xi’s visit could mark another step “in the erosion of the dollar’s status” as reserve currency, he added.

Nonetheless, there are limits to the growing ties between Riyadh and Beijing.

“The Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East has concerned the Saudis, and they see a growing relationship with China as a hedge against potential US abandonment and a tool for leverage in negotiations with the United States,” said Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington DC-based think tank.

The Biden administration has reoriented its policy priorities with a focus on countering China. At the same time, it has indicated its intention to downsize its own presence in the Middle East, sparking worries among allies there that the United States may not be as committed to the region as it used to be.

“All that being said, Chinese-Saudi ties pale in both depth and complexity to Saudi-US ties,” Alterman said. “The Chinese remain a novelty to most Saudis, and they are additive. The United States is foundational to how Saudis see the world, and how they have seen it for 75 years.”

Despite the possibility of shifting to yuan transactions, it’s too early to say Saudi Arabia would ditch the dollar in pricing its oil sales, analysts said.

Eurasia Group’s Kamal believes it’s “highly unlikely” that Saudi Arabia would take such a step, unless there is an implosion on the US-Saudi relationship.

“In essence there could be discussion on pricing of barrels to China in yuan, but this would be limited in size and probably only correspond to bilateral trade volumes,” he said.

Prasad from Cornell University said countries like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are all eager to reduce their dependence on the dollar for oil contracts and other cross-border transactions.

“However, in the absence of serious alternatives and with few international investors willing to place their trust in these countries’ financial markets and their governments, the dollar’s dominant role in global finance is hardly under serious threat,” he said.

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December 7, 2022
Chinese President Xi Jinping lands in Saudi Arabia amid tensions with US | CNN

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CNN
—

Chinese President Xi Jinping landed in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh on Wednesday for a multiple-day visit, China’s official news agency Xinhua reported, amid frayed ties between the two countries and the United States.

Saudi state TV showed Xi walking down the steps of his presidential aircraft at King Khalid International Airport, where he was received by Saudi Prince Faisal bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz, governor of the Riyadh region, and Prince Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdullah, Saudi foreign minister.

A purple carpet was rolled out for the Chinese president, and canons were fired.

The visit will include a “Saudi-Chinese summit,” a China-Arab and a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) previously reported.

Rumors of a Chinese presidential visit to the US’ largest Middle East ally have been circulating for months as the nations have solidified their ties, possibly to Washington’s dismay.

The trip comes against the backdrop of a number of disagreements harbored by the US toward both Beijing and Riyadh, including grievances about oil production, human rights and other issues.

But Saudi Arabia’s grand reception of the Chinese president is only emblematic of the magnitude of their growing relationship, specifically around oil, trade and security. The two countries are expected to sign deals worth more than $29 billion during this week’s visit, according to SPA.

China is today Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, with the value of the kingdom’s exports to China having exceeded $50 billion last year, constituting more than 18% of Saudi Arabia’s total exports in 2021. Bilateral trade between the two states is more than $80 billion dollars, SPA reported.

Saudi Arabia has also traditionally been China’s top oil supplier, with Saudi barrels making up around 17% of total Chinese oil imports as of last year, according to the Saudi-backed Arab News.

While the kingdom remains a key supplier for its Chinese partner, oil relations may have been slightly on edge this year as sanctioned Russia pours its discounted barrels into the Asian market.

Apart from oil exports, Saudi Arabia has this year ramped up its Chinese investments, which culminated in Aramco’s whopping $10 billion dollar investment into a refinery and petrochemical complex in China’s northeast.

These close ties have been years in the making as both countries have sought to diversify their security and energy sources, experts say.

“Now it is the height of the bilateral relations between the two since their establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992,” Shaojin Chai, an assistant professor at the University of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, told CNN.

“They become closer as both sides need each other in many areas: energy transition, economic diversification, defense capacity building for KSA and climate change, to name just a few,” said Chai, referring to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and adding that “the diversification of security risk entails KSA including rising China in its hedge.”

While China and Saudi Arabia’s friendship has blossomed over the decades, they seem to have become closer as both find themselves in precarious positions in regard to the US.

A strong American ally for eight long decades, Saudi Arabia has become bitter over what it perceives to be waning US security presence in the region, especially amid growing threats from Iran and its armed proxies in the Middle East.

An economic mammoth in the east, China has been at odds with the US over Taiwan, the democratically governed island of 24 million people that Beijing claims as its territory despite never having controlled it.

US President Joe Biden has repeatedly vowed to help Taiwan in the event of an attack by China, which has not ruled out the use of force to “reunify” with the island.

The thorny topic has gravely aggravated a precarious relationship between Washington and Beijing, who are already competing for influence in the volatile Middle East.

China has also been cementing its ties with other Gulf monarchies, as well as with US foes Iran and Russia.

“If they’re signaling anything to the rest of the world, I suspect it’s mainly that they are two important countries with a deep, interest-based relationship,” said Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.

“At a time when negative perceptions of China dominate in much of the West, Xi will be lavishly welcomed in Saudi Arabia, the most important Arab state, the most important country in global Islam, and a major actor in global energy markets,” Fulton told CNN.

“And the Saudis can show that they remain important to extra-regional powers, even if their relationship with Washington is rocky,” he added.

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December 7, 2022
‘I am fighting a noble fight’: Why some Russians have vowed to resist Putin’s invasion of Ukraine | CNN

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Dolyna, Ukraine
CNN
—

A soldier in a Ukrainian uniform morosely contemplates the ruins of an Orthodox monastery in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

“This is a result of Putin’s war,” he says, angrily, as he paces through the wreck. “As a Christian, this is very offensive to me.”

The soldier, whose name CNN agreed not to reveal to protect his identity, goes by the call-sign “Caesar.” He is one of hundreds, if not thousands, fighting to keep the town of Bakhmut, the current epicenter of the war, in Ukrainian hands.

But there’s one thing that sets him apart from most of those who share the same goal: he’s Russian.

“From the first day of the war, my heart, the heart of a real Russian man, a real Christian, told me that I had to be here to defend the people of Ukraine,” Caesar explains. “We are now fighting in the Bakhmut direction, this is the hottest part of the front.”

Few, if any, buildings of the eastern Ukrainian town have been spared by the unending artillery barrages fired from side to side. Many of the structures have been completely destroyed, others left uninhabitable with collapsed sections, in apocalyptic scenes reminiscent of the battered city of Mariupol, captured by Russia earlier in the war.

“After the (Russian) mobilization (in September), Putin threw all his forces (at Bakhmut) in order to achieve a breaking point in the war, but we are putting up a fierce defensive fight,” Caesar says.

Much of Ukraine’s resisting force has had to hunker down in muddy trenches, fighting tooth and nail to deny Russian forces a victory they desperately crave.

“The fighting is very brutal now,” Caesar explains.

A few miles away from the battle, but still in earshot of the constant thuds and explosions, Caesar’s commitment is unflinching and he does not regret his decision to join Ukraine’s foreign legion.

While the urge to sign up came early on in the conflict, he could only leave his home country, with his close family, and join the Ukrainian military in the summer.

“It was a very difficult process,” he says. “It took me several months to finally join the ranks of the defenders of Ukraine.”

Now with his family in Ukraine – where he considers them to be safer – Caesar says he is one of around 200 Russian citizens currently fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, against their own country’s armies. CNN has not been able independently to confirm this number.

In Caesar’s view, Moscow’s forces are not true Russians.

“Yes, I kill my countrymen, but they have become criminals,” he explains. “They came to a foreign land to rob and kill and destroy. They kill civilians, children and women.”

“I have to confront this,” he added.

Caesar is a self-confessed opponent of what he says is a “tyrannical regime” headed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, not just in Ukraine but also inside his own country. And in his confrontation of the war, he has had to shoot at least 15 Russian soldiers on the battlefield, he claims.

They are lives he did not pity and killings he does not regret, he says.

“I am fighting a noble fight and I am doing my military and Christian duty; I am defending the Ukrainian people,” Caesar says. “And when Ukraine is free, I will carry my sword to Russia to free it from tyranny.”

Caesar’s ideological drive is not the only reason some Russians have chosen to side with Ukrainians on the battlefield. For many the motivation lies closer to the heart.

“Silent,” the call-sign of another Russian soldier whose full name CNN is not disclosing for his safety, was visiting Ukraine when Russian missiles and artillery shells started landing in its towns and cities on February 24.

“I came to Ukraine at the beginning of February to visit my relatives. I stayed here and war started,” Silent says.

He says he joined the Ukrainian military shortly after he saw the atrocities perpetrated by Russian soldiers in the suburbs of Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka, just outside the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Evidence of mass graves and civilian executions in those areas emerged following the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kyiv region in early April.

Russia has previously denied allegations of war crimes and claimed its forces do not target civilians, despite extensive evidence gathered by international human rights experts, criminal investigators and international media in multiple locations.

“I was just outside Kyiv, not far from those places, and when they were kicked out of that territory, we went there to help people and saw what they had done,” Silent says. “Dead bodies, children, women, executions … When you see it in person … of course everything inside turned upside down.”

He adds: “I decided to stay here until the end and join the legion.”

Silent says his best friend has recently been forcibly mobilized into Russia’s army back home. Silent says they’ve discussed the terrifying fact that it’s conceivable they could end up on opposite sides on a Ukrainian battlefield.

“It’s weird that that could happen – especially as he wants to leave Russia and wants to come to fight with me against Putin’s army in Ukraine. We’re trying to get him out but he’s being held by the Russian army,” says Silent.

His family, like many in Russia and Ukraine, has roots in both countries. His wife and two children are now living with him in Ukraine but other relatives remain in Russia. Silent says that although they have stayed behind, they see through Putin’s propaganda on the war, still described as a “special military operation” by the Kremlin.

“They understand what is going on: Russia invaded Ukraine,” he says, adding that his relatives were not angry with him. “They know my character, that if I have made a decision, I will act until the end.

“They told me to stay safe.”

Another soldier, who goes by the call-sign “Vinnie,” insists on covering his face with a balaclava, fearing that the Kremlin’s long arm might try to reach him in Ukraine.

“My family is not here with me right now,” he explains. He says he is fighting for them and for their future, but still fears what Moscow’s security apparatus might do to them.

“My children, my wife, who I love very much, they’re my everything, my whole life,” he says, with a sparkle in his eyes and a smile that can be detected through the cloth covering his face.

“If I show my face … I worry about them, because there’ll be no one to protect them,” he adds.

It’s one of the added risks for Russian citizens risking their lives for Ukraine, but not the only one. Russian soldiers fighting for Ukraine could face tougher consequences than their Ukrainian counterparts if they’re captured by the enemy.

Last month, a soldier who deserted the Russian mercenary group Wagner and crossed onto the Ukrainian side, Yevgeny Nuzhin, was brutally murdered with a sledgehammer after he went back to Russia.

His execution was applauded by the head of the group, Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin. Without directly acknowledging that Wagner fighters had carried out the murder, Prigozhin said: “Nuzhin betrayed his people, betrayed his comrades, betrayed them consciously. He was not taken prisoner, nor did he surrender. Rather, he planned his escape. Nuzhin is a traitor.”

This kind of example is why Vinnie is certain of what will await him should he be captured.

“There won’t be an exchange for sure. It will be the end, 100%,” he says. “It will just be more painful.”

But pain and death are not a part of this unit’s lexicon, even as they face overwhelming odds in Bakhmut.

Russia has been trying to capture the town for months and has thrown large numbers of men at Ukrainian defenses in an attempt to break them. But they haven’t broken Vinnie.

“I am defending the country, I am defending homes, women, children, people who cannot defend themselves,” he says. “My conscience is absolutely clear.”

Caesar, standing amid the remains of the Orthodox monastery, is equally defiant, saying not even the prospect of defeat will make him waver.

“I will stay here while my heart will beats. I will fight to defend Ukraine,” he says.

“And when we have defended Ukraine I will liberate my country.”

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December 5, 2022
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa resists calls to resign | CNN

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Johannesburg, South Africa
CNN
—

After days of speculation, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa looks set to fight calls for his resignation despite a damning report that found he could have covered up the theft of hundreds of thousands of dollars at his private game farm.

His spokesman Vincent Magwenya said Ramaphosa would not be resigning “based on a flawed report,” and “neither is he stepping aside.”

“The President has taken to heart the unequivocal message coming from the branches of the governing party who have nominated him to avail himself for a second term of the leadership of the ANC (African National Congress),” Magwenya added.

Prior to the release of the report, Ramaphosa was widely expected to win a second term as ANC leader. The ANC’s top leadership is expected to meet in the coming hours. Ramaphosa’s fate is likely to be top of the agenda.

Ramaphosa himself has not made any public statements since the report was released.

Ramaphosa was elected to root out corruption, but he is being probed in an ongoing scandal linked to the theft of more than $500,000 in cash from his private game farm in 2020. The cash was stuffed inside a leather sofa according to the panel investigation.

The panel, led by a former chief justice, found that the crime was not reported to the police and that there was a “deliberate decision to keep the investigation secret.”

Former South African spy chief Arthur Fraser alleged the theft occurred with the collusion of a domestic worker and claimed that the theft was concealed from police and the revenue service. Fraser, whose allegations were detailed in a report into the investigation, said Ramaphosa paid the culprits for their silence.

Ramaphosa has maintained that the cash was from the sale of buffalo at his Phala Phala farm to a Sudanese businessman and that the theft was reported to the head of presidential security.

The president also disputes claims by Fraser that the amount hidden at his farm was more than $4 million.

“Some are casting aspersions about me and money. I want to assure you that all this was money from proceeds from selling animals. I have never stolen money from anywhere. Be it from our taxpayers, be it from anyone. I have never done so. And will never do so,” he said while addressing members of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party in June this year.

He is a well-known owner and trader of rare buffalo, cattle, and other wildlife, and has become a multi-millionaire through his private buffalo farm.

The panel found that Ramaphosa’s submitted explanations were not yet sufficient and that he could have violated the constitution and his oath of office by having a second income as president.

The ANC’s top leaders are set to discuss the report and while the party does have a “step-aside” rule for misconduct, the ANC’s national spokesman Pule Mabe told local television that it only applied to those that are “criminally charged.”

Ramaphosa was recently feted at Buckingham Palace at the first state visit hosted by King Charles, but closer to home, the scandal threatens to end his political career, with speculation swirling around political circles in the country that he could step down.

The ANC’s elective conference to choose its leadership is due to take place in mid-December, but is likely to be dominated by the President’s troubles.

South Africa’s official opposition leader was quick to call for impeachment proceedings and early elections.

“The report is clear and unambiguous. President Ramaphosa most likely did breach a number of Constitutional provisions and has a case to answer. Impeachment proceedings into his conduct must go ahead, and he will have to offer far better, more comprehensive explanations than we have been given so far,” said by John Steenhuisen, the leader of the Democratic Alliance.

The panel was appointed by the speaker of parliament after a motion from a smaller opposition party.

The National Assembly will consider the report and may institute impeachment proceedings – though the ANC does hold a majority of seats.

Ramaphosa took office after his predecessor Jacob Zuma was forced to resign because of multiple allegations of corruption.

A former trade union head and multi-millionaire from his business career, Ramaphosa has repeatedly said that fighting corruption is a priority for his presidency.

But the ANC has, by all accounts, been fractured by factional politics during his tenure. Some allies of former president Zuma are now openly asking for Ramaphosa to step down.

Soon after the report’s findings were released, Ramaphosa’s office reiterated his statement to the panel, “I have endeavored, throughout my tenure as President, not only to abide by my oath but to set an example of respect for the Constitution, for its institutions, for due process and the law. I categorically deny that I have violated this oath in any way, and I similarly deny that I am guilty of any of the allegations made against me.”

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December 4, 2022
China’s security apparatus swings into action to smother Covid protests | CNN

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CNN
—

China’s vast security apparatus has moved swiftly to smother mass protests that swept the country, with police patrolling streets, checking cell phones and even calling some demonstrators to warn them against a repeat.

In major cities on Monday and Tuesday, police flooded the sites of protests that took place over the weekend, when thousands gathered to vent their anger over the country’s tough zero-Covid policy – some calling for greater democracy and freedom in an extraordinary show of dissent against Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The heavy police presence has discouraged protesters from gathering since, while authorities in some cities have adopted surveillance tactics used in the far western region of Xinjiang to intimidate those who demonstrated at the weekend.

In what appears to be the first official response – albeit veiled – to the protests, China’s domestic security chief vowed at a meeting Tuesday to “effectively maintain overall social stability.”

Without mentioning the demonstrations, Chen Wenqing urged law enforcement officials to “resolutely strike hard against infiltration and sabotage activities by hostile forces, as well as illegal and criminal acts that disrupt social order,” the state-run news agency Xinhua reported.

The tough language may signal a heavy-handed crackdown ahead. While protests over local grievances do occur in China, the current wave of demonstrations is the most widespread since the Tiananmen Square pro-democracy movement of 1989. The political defiance is also unprecedented, with some protesters openly calling for Xi, the country’s most powerful and authoritarian leader in decades, to step down.

Some of the boldest protests took place in Shanghai, where crowds called for Xi’s removal two nights in a row. The sidewalks of Urumqi Road – the main protest site – have been completely blocked by tall barricades, making it virtually impossible for crowds to congregate.

Ten minutes’ drive away, dozens of police officers patrolled the People’s Square – a large plaza at the heart of the city where some residents had planned to gather with white paper and candles on Monday evening. Police also waited inside a subway station there, closing off all but one exit, according to a protester at the scene.

CNN is not naming any of the protesters in this story to protect them from reprisals.

The protester said he saw police checking the cell phones of passersby, and asking them if they had installed virtual private networks (VPNs) that can be used to circumvent China’s internet firewall, or apps such as Twitter and Telegram, which though banned in the country have been used by protesters.

“There were also police dogs. The whole atmosphere was chilling,” the protester said.

Protesters later decided to move their planned demonstration to another location, but by the time they arrived, the security presence had already been stepped up there, the protester said.

“There were too many police and we had to cancel,” he said.

On Tuesday, a widely circulated video appears to show police officers checking passengers’ mobile phones on a Shanghai subway train.

Another Shanghai protester told CNN they were among “around 80 to 110” people detained by police on Saturday night, adding they were released 24 hours later.

CNN cannot independently verify the number of protesters detained and it is unclear how many people, if any, remain in custody.

The protester said the detainees had their phones confiscated on board a bus that took them to a police station, where officers collected their fingerprints and retina patterns.

According to the protester, police told those detained they had been used by “ill-intentioned people who want to start a color revolution,” pointing to nationwide protests breaking out on the same day as evidence of that.

The protester said police returned their phone and camera upon their release, but officers had deleted the photo album and removed the WeChat social media app.

In Beijing, police vehicles, many parked with their lights flashing, lined eerily quiet streets on Monday morning throughout parts of the capital, including near Liangmaqiao in the city’s central Chaoyang district, where a large crowd of protesters had gathered Sunday night.

The demonstration, which saw hundreds marching down the city’s Third Ring Road, ended peacefully in the early hours of Monday under the close watch of lines of police officers.

But some protesters have since received phone calls from the police inquiring about their participation.

One demonstrator said she received a phone call from a man who identified himself as a local police officer, asking her whether she was at the protest and what she saw there. She was also told that if she had any discontent with authorities, she should complain to the police, instead of taking part in “illegal activities” such as the protest.

“That night, the police mostly adopted a calm approach when dealing with us. But the Communist Party is very good at meting out punishment afterward,” the demonstrator told CNN.

She said she did not wear a face mask during the demonstration. “I don’t think Omicron is that scary,” she said. But her friends who wore masks to the protest also received calls from the police – some as late as 1 a.m., she added.

Still, the protester remained defiant. “It is our legitimate right (to protest), because the constitution stipulates that we have freedom of speech and freedom of congregation,” she said.

Another protester, who has not heard from the police, told CNN that concern she could be the next to be called upon weighs heavily on her mind.

“I can only seek consolation by telling myself that there were so many of us who took part in the protest, they can’t put a thousand people in jail,” she said.

Meanwhile, some universities in Beijing have arranged transportation for students to return home early for winter break and take classes online, citing an effort to reduce Covid risks for students taking public transportation.

But the arrangement also conveniently discourages students from gathering, following demonstrations on a series of campuses over the weekend, including the prestigious Tsinghua University where hundreds of students shouted for “Democracy and rule of law! Freedom of expression!”

Given the long history of student-led movements in modern China, authorities are particularly concerned about political rallies on university campuses.

Beijing’s universities have been the source of demonstrations which kicked off the May Fourth Movement in 1919, to which the Chinese Communist Party traces its roots, as well as the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, which were brutally crushed by the Chinese military.

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November 29, 2022
Kyiv says it ‘won’t let Putin steal Christmas’ as Russian attacks threaten bleak winter in Ukraine | CNN

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Kyiv, Ukraine
CNN
—

The mayor of Kyiv has said the city “cannot let Putin steal our Christmas” as Ukrainians prepare to tentatively celebrate the festive season with darkened trees while Russian airstrikes knock out power and wreak havoc on critical infrastructure.

Christmas trees will be erected across the Ukrainian capital to mark Christmas and the New Year, Kyiv’s mayor Vitaly Klitschko told Ukrainian news outlet RBC-Ukraine, but energy company YASNO said they will not be illuminated.

Mass events will remain prohibited under martial law, but “no one is going to cancel the New Year and Christmas, and there should be an atmosphere of the New Year,” Klitschko told the network. “We cannot let Putin steal our Christmas.”

His call comes after weeks of sustained aerial attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, which have left families across the country without electricity, light or water intermittently.

Officials are racing to restore resources quicker than Russia can knock them out. Ukraine’s electricity operator Ukrenergo said Tuesday that it was running at a 30% deficit, 3% higher than the day before, after it had implemented a series of “emergency shutdowns” across the country at “several power plants.”

Kyiv’s Christmas trees will provide a nod to normality in sites across the city, including the famous Sophia Square. Klitschko said they will be installed “to remind our children of the New Year mood.”

“You know, we do not want to take away St. Nicholas from children,” he said.

But YASNO has clarified that the trees would erected but without lights. In a short statement on Facebook the company said: “We do not know how about you, but we are glad that there will be [trees] and a decision on the absence of illumination on them.”

YASNO cited the load a full illumination would place on the Ukrainian grid, saying it will “reduce a significant additional load on the grid. And, consequently, reduce the number of blackouts.”

Given deteriorating weather conditions, power usage is on the rise, Ukrenergo said, saying that it hoped the power deficit would reduce as “units return to operation.” Seven waves of Russian missiles contributed to the latest round of outages, it claimed. CNN is unable to independently verify the number of missile waves.

But the race to plug gaps in the power grid is likely to be a recurrent theme as Ukrainians brace for a cold and dark winter. As recently as Sunday, Kyiv had “almost completely restored” its power, water, heat, internet and network coverage, the Kyiv city military administration said at the time.

Speaking ahead of a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Bucharest, the chief of the military alliance said Russian President Vladimir Putin was “trying to use winter as a weapon of war.”

NATO allies have delivered generators to help Ukraine restore its collapsed energy infrastructure, Jens Stoltenberg said, but he added he expected the message from the foreign ministers to be that allies “need to do more,” including providing Ukraine with more air defense systems and ammunition.

And Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska has urged the international community to remain focused on the conflict as the festive season approaches.

“We do hope that the approaching season of Christmas doesn’t make you forget about our tragedy and get used to our suffering,” she said in a BBC radio interview on Tuesday, while on a visit to London.

“I realize that nine months is a very long time, and Ukrainians are very tired of this war, but we have no choice in the matter. We are fighting for our lives. The British public do have a choice: They can get used to our tragedy and concentrate on their own important things in life,” she said.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has meanwhile appealed to local authorities, including in Kyiv, to do more to build-out his government’s “invincibility points” – pop-up stations offering shelter and services, such as power charging facilities, internet connections, and hot water.

Zelensky criticized the program’s rollout, especially in the capital where he said only some sites were working properly. “Other points still need to be improved, to put it mildly,” he said. “Kyiv residents need more protection.”

And the Kyiv Regional Clinical Hospital, one of Ukraine’s largest hospitals, was last week on the verge of moving patients undergoing dialysis treatment, which requires an uninterrupted water supply, Vitaliy Vlasiuk, the deputy head of Kyiv region military administration, said in a telephone interview.

“Unfortunately when the power goes off in Kyiv, the central water supply also often fails,” Vlasiuk said. “A lack of water supply is critical.”

Meanwhile, the United Nations has said that the situation in the southern Ukrainian cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson remains “dire” and “critical.” Nearly a quarter of a million people in Mykolaiv alone face a lack of heat, water and power.

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November 29, 2022
China’s lockdown protests: What you need to know | CNN

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Beijing
CNN
—

China has moved quickly to suppress demonstrations that erupted across the country over the weekend, deploying police forces at key protest sites and tightening online censorship.

The protests were sparked by anger over the country’s increasingly costly zero-Covid policy, but as numbers swelled at demonstrations in multiple major cities, so too have the range of grievances voiced – with some calling for greater democracy and freedom.

Among the thousands of protesters, hundreds have even called for the removal of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who for nearly three years has overseen a strategy of mass-testing, brute-force lockdowns, enforced quarantine and digital tracking that has come at a devastating human and economic cost.

Here’s what we know.

The protests were triggered by a deadly fire last Thursday in Urumqi, the capital of the far western region of Xinjiang. The blaze killed at least 10 people and injured nine in an apartment building – leading to public fury after videos of the incident appeared to show lockdown measures had delayed firefighters from reaching the victims.

The city had been under lockdown for more than 100 days, with residents unable to leave the region and many forced to stay home.

Videos showed Urumqi residents marching to a government building and chanting for the end of lockdown on Friday. The following morning, the local government said it would lift the lockdown in stages – but did not provide a clear time frame or address the protests.

That failed to quell public anger and the protests rapidly spread beyond Xinjiang, with residents in cities and universities across China also taking to the streets.

So far, CNN has verified 20 demonstrations that took place across 15 Chinese cities – including the capital Beijing and financial center Shanghai.

In Shanghai on Saturday, hundreds gathered for a candlelight vigil on Urumqi Road, named after the Xinjiang city, to mourn the fire victims. Many held up blank sheets of white paper – a symbolic protest against censorship – and chanted, “Need human rights, need freedom.”

Some also shouted for Xi to “step down,” and sang The Internationale, a socialist anthem used as a call to action in demonstrations worldwide for more than a century. It was also sung during pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in Beijing before a brutal crackdown by armed troops in 1989.

China’s zero-Covid policies have been felt particularly acutely in Shanghai, where a two-month long lockdown earlier this year left many without access to food, medical care or other basic supplies – sowing deep public resentment.

By Sunday evening, mass demonstrations had spread to Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Wuhan, where thousands of residents called for not only an end to Covid restrictions, but more remarkably, political freedoms. Residents in some locked-down neighborhoods tore down barriers and took to the streets.

Protests also took place on campuses, including the prestigious institutions of Peking University and Tsinghua University in Beijing, and Communication University of China, Nanjing.

In Hong Kong, where a national security law imposed by Beijing in 2020 has been used to stifle dissent, dozens of people gathered on Monday evening in the city’s Central district for a vigil. Some held blank pieces of paper, while others left flowers and held signs commemorating those killed in the Urumqi fire.

Public protest is exceedingly rare in China, where the Communist Party has tightened its grip on all aspects of life, launched a sweeping crackdown on dissent, wiped out much of civil society and built a high-tech surveillance state.

The mass surveillance system is even more stringent in Xinjiang, where the Chinese government is accused of detaining up to 2 million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in camps where former detainees have alleged they were physically and sexually abused.

A damning United Nations report in September described the region’s “invasive” surveillance network, with police databases containing hundreds of thousands of files with biometric data such as facial and eyeball scans.

China has repeatedly denied accusations of human rights abuses in the region.

While protests do occur in China, they rarely happen on this scale, nor take such direct aim at the central government and the nation’s leader, said Maria Repnikova, an associate professor at Georgia State University who studies Chinese politics and media.

“This is a different type of protest from the more localized protests we have seen recurring over the past two decades that tend to focus their claims and demands on local officials and on very targeted societal and economic issues,” she said. Instead, this time the protests have expanded to include “the sharper expression of political grievances alongside with concerns about Covid-19 lockdowns.”

There have been growing signs in recent months that the public has run out of patience with zero-Covid, after nearly three years of economic hardship and disruption to daily life.

Isolated pockets of protest broke out October, with anti-zero-Covid slogans appearing on the walls of public bathrooms and in various Chinese cities, inspired by a banner hung by a lone protester on an overpass in Beijing just days before Xi cemented a third term in power.

Earlier in November, larger protests took place in Guangzhou, with residents defying lockdown orders to topple barriers and cheer as they took to the streets.

While protests in several parts of China appear to have largely dispersed peacefully over the weekend, authorities responded more forcefully in some cities.

The Shanghai protests on Saturday led to scuffles between demonstrators and police, with arrests made in the early hours of the morning. Undeterred, protesters returned on Sunday, where they met a more aggressive response – videos show chaotic scenes of police pushing, dragging, and beating protesters.

The videos have since been scrubbed from the Chinese internet by censors.

One Shanghai protester told CNN he was one of around 80 to 110 people detained in the city on Saturday night. He described being transferred to a police station, having his phone confiscated and biometric information collected before being released a day later.

CNN cannot independently verify the number of those arrested.

Hear protesters in China call for Xi Jinping’s resignation

Two foreign reporters were also briefly detained. BBC journalist Edward Lawrence was arrested in Shanghai on Sunday night, with a BBC spokesperson claiming he was “beaten and kicked by the police” while covering the protests. He has since been released.

On Monday, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said Lawrence had not identified himself as a journalist before being detained.

Michael Peuker, China correspondent for Swiss public broadcaster RTS, was reporting live when he said several police officers approached him. He later posted on Twitter that the officers took him and his cameraman into a vehicle, before releasing them.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson deflected questions about the protests on Monday, telling a reporter who asked whether the widespread displays of public anger would make China consider ending zero-Covid: “What you mentioned does not reflect what actually happened.”

He also claimed that social media posts linking the Xinjiang fire with Covid policies had “ulterior motives,” and that authorities have been “making adjustments based on realities on the ground.” When asked about protesters calling on Xi to step down, he replied: “I’m not aware of the situation you mentioned.”

State-run media has not directly covered the demonstrations – but praised zero-Covid, with one newspaper on Sunday calling it “the most scientifically effective” approach.

In recent days, vigils and demonstrations expressing solidarity with protesters in China have been held around the world, including in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia.

As news of the protests made international headlines, foreign government officials and organizations voiced support for the protesters and criticized Beijing’s response.

“We’re watching this closely, as you might expect we would,” said US National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby on Monday. “We continue to stand up and support the right of peaceful protest.”

Why protesters in China are holding up white paper

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly told reporters the Chinese government should “listen to the voices of its own people … when they are saying that they are not happy with the restrictions imposed upon them.”

The European Broadcasting Union (EBU) also said on Monday that it condemned “the intolerable intimidation and aggression” directed toward member journalists in China, in an apparent reference to the foreign journalists who were detained.

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November 28, 2022
At the heart of China’s protests against zero-Covid, young people cry for freedom | CNN

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A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.

CNN
—

For the first time in decades, thousands of people have defied Chinese authorities to protest at universities and on the streets of major cities, demanding to be freed not only from incessant Covid tests and lockdowns, but strict censorship and the Communist Party’s tightening grip over all aspects of life.

Across the country, “want freedom” has become a rallying cry for a groundswell of protests mainly led by the younger generation, some too young to have taken part in previous acts of open dissent against the government.

“Give me liberty or give me death!” crowds by the hundreds shouted in several cities, according to videos circulating online, as vigils to mark the deaths of at least 10 people in a fire in Xinjiang spiraled into political rallies.

Videos circulating online seem to suggest China’s strict zero-Covid policy initially prevented emergency workers from accessing the scene, angering residents across the country who have endured three years of varying Covid controls.

Some protesters chanted for free speech, democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and other political demands across cities from the eastern financial hub of Shanghai to the capital Beijing, the southern metropolis of Guangzhou and Chengdu in the west.

CNN has verified protests in 16 locations, with reports of others held in dozens of other cities and universities across the country.

Protesters take to Hong Kong’s streets in solidarity with mainland

While protests in several parts of China appear to have largely dispersed peacefully over the weekend, some met a stronger response from authorities – and security has been tightened across cities in a country were authorities have far-reaching surveillance and security capabilities.

In Beijing, a heavy police presence was apparent on Monday evening, a day after protests broke out there. Police vehicles, many parked with their lights flashing, lined eerily quiet streets throughout parts of the capital, including near Liangmaqiao in the city’s central Chaoyang district, where a large crowd of protesters had gathered Sunday night.

When asked Monday whether “the widespread display of anger and frustration” seen across the country could prompt China to move away from its zero-Covid approach, a Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed suggestions of dissent.

“What you mentioned does not reflect what actually happened,” said spokesperson Zhao Lijian, who added that authorities had been “making adjustments” to their Covid policies based on “realities on the ground.”

“We believe that with the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people our fight against Covid-19 will be successful,” he said.

In a symbolic protest against ever-tightening censorship, young demonstrators across China held up sheets of white paper – a metaphor for the countless critical posts, news articles and outspoken social media accounts that were wiped from the internet.

“I think in a just society, no one should be criminalized for their speech. There shouldn’t be only one voice in our society – we need a variety of voices,” a Beijing protester told CNN in the early hours of Monday as he marched down the city’s Third Ring Road with a thin pile of white A4 paper.

“I hope in the future, I will no longer be holding a white piece of paper for what I really want to express,” said the protester, who CNN is not naming due to concerns about repercussions for speaking out.

The United Nations on Monday urged Chinese authorities to guarantee people’s “right to demonstrate peacefully,” Secretary General spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said at a daily briefing.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said China’s ruling Communist Party should “take notice” of the protests.

“Protests against the Chinese government are rare. And so when they do happen, I think it’s worth us taking note, but more importantly, I think it’s incumbent on the Chinese government to take notice of its own people,” Cleverly told reporters.

Throughout the weekend, censors moved swiftly to scrub videos and photos of the protests from the Chinese internet, though the startling images made headlines worldwide.

In online commentaries, Chinese state media made no mention of the protests, instead focusing on the strengths of Beijing’s anti-Covid policies, emphasizing they were both “scientific and effective.”

But to many protesters, the demonstrations are about much more than Covid – they’re bringing together many liberal-minded young people whose attempts to speak out might otherwise be thwarted by strict online censorship.

A Shanghai resident in their 20s who took part in the candlelight vigil in the early hours of Sunday said they were greeted by other young people holding white papers, flowers and shouting “want freedom” as they walked toward the makeshift memorial.

“My friends and I have all experienced Shanghai’s lockdown, and the so-called ‘iron fist’ (of the state) has fallen on all of us,” they told CNN, “That night, I felt that I could finally do something. I couldn’t sit still, I had to go.”

They broke into tears quietly in the crowd as the chants demanding freedom grew louder.

“At that moment, I felt I’m not alone,” they said. “I realized that I’m not the only one who thinks this way.”

In some cases, the protests have taken on an even more defiant tone and openly called for political change.

During the first night of the demonstrations in Shanghai, a crowd shouted “Step down, Xi Jinping! Step down, Communist Party!” in an unprecedented, direct challenge to the top leader. On Sunday night, some protesters again chanted for the removal of Xi.

In Chengdu, the protesters did not name Xi, but their message was hard to miss. “Opposition to dictatorship!” chanted hundreds of people packing the bustling river banks in a popular food and shopping district on Sunday evening, according to videos and a participant.

“We don’t want lifelong rulers. We don’t want emperors!” they shouted in a thinly veiled reference to the Chinese leader, who last month began a norm-shattering third term in office.

According to the participant, the crowd also protested against revisions to the party charter and the state constitution – which enabled Xi to further cement his hold on power and scrap presidential term limits.

Much like in Shanghai, the gathering started as a small candlelight vigil for people killed in the fire in Urumqi on Thursday.

But as more people gathered, the vigil turned into a louder arena to air political grievances.

“Everyone started shouting these slogans very naturally,” the participant said. “It is so rare that we have such a large-scale gathering and demonstration. The words of mourning didn’t feel enough, and we had to shout out some words that we want to say.”

To her, the experience of suffocating censorship inevitably fuels desire for “institutional and spiritual freedom,” and mourning the victims and demanding democracy and freedom are two “inseparable” things.

“We all know that the reason why we have to keep undergoing lockdowns and Covid tests is that this is a political movement, not a scientific and logical response of epidemic prevention,” she said. “That’s why we have more political demands other than lifting lockdowns.”

The Chengdu protester said she felt encouraged by the wave of demonstrations sweeping the country.

“It turns out there are so many people who are wide awake,” she said. “I feel like I can see a glimmer of light coming through ahead.”

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November 28, 2022
Taiwan’s President billed midterms as all about China. Now she’s resigning as party chief | CNN

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Tainan, Taiwan
CNN
—

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has resigned as the leader of the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, after her party suffered heavy losses in mid-term elections.

The DPP’s losses in Saturday’s vote come as a heavy blow for Tsai as she had tried to frame the election – technically a local affair to choose city mayors, councilors and county chiefs – as a way to send a message against Beijing’s rising bellicosity toward the island.

Beijing has been increasingly assertive in its territorial claims over Taiwan in recent months, and in August launched large-scale military exercises around the island in response to a controversial visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

But Tsai’s appeal to link the issues appears to have done little to boost the fortunes of her party, which is often outperformed by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party in local ballots.

The KMT – which is widely seen as friendlier to Beijing and advocates greater economic ties with mainland China – is expected to win mayoral elections in 13 counties, according to Taiwan’s official Central News Agency. Tsai’s party, by comparison, is expected to win only five – one fewer than in the last local election.

“We humbly accept the results of the election and the decision of the people of Taiwan,” Tsai wrote on Facebook on Saturday night.

She added that she had already resigned as party chief to “fully bear the responsibilities”.

However, Tsai will remain as President. Her presidential term ends in 2024.

The result comes despite escalating rhetoric from Beijing. China’s leader Xi Jinping told a Communist Party meeting last month that “the wheels of history are rolling on towards China’s reunification” and that Beijing would never renounce the use of force to take Taiwan.

Analysts said the result showed voters were more focused on domestic issues like the economy and social welfare.

“Taiwanese voters have become desensitized to China’s military threat. And hence there isn’t quite as much of a perceived urgency to making the issue of survival front and center,” said Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist with the Australia National University’s Taiwan Studies Program.

“The DPP’s China threat card is facing diminishing marginal returns over time.”

That assessment tallied with the thoughts of voter Liao Su-han, an art curator from the central Nantou county who cast a ballot for the DPP but said Beijing’s recent actions were not a major factor in deciding her vote.

“China’s military threat has always been there, and it did not just begin this year,” she said.

“As Taiwanese, we are pretty used to China’s rhetoric that they want to invade us all the time, so [it] did not have a big impact on who I’m voting for.”

Eric Su, a 30-year-old account manager who lives in New Taipei City, said while he voted for Tsai in the presidential election, he supported a KMT candidate because they are stronger on local issues.

“In a presidential election, I consider more about global issues, because a president can influence our economy and international standing,” he said.

“In a mayoral election, I care more about what a candidate can bring to local residents, such as infrastructure planning and child subsidies.”

The KMT, also known as the Chinese Nationalist Party, ruled over China between 1912 and 1949, when it retreated to Taiwan after losing a civil war to the Chinese Communist Party.

The KMT set up its own government on the island – having taken control of it from Japan after the second world war – while the Communist Party took control of mainland China. Ever since, the Communist Party has harbored ambitions of “reunification” with Taiwan – by force, if necessary.

When the KMT first fled to Taiwan, its then-president Chiang Kai-shek ruled the island with an iron fist and implemented decades of martial law to crack down on political dissent.

After decades of struggle by pro-democracy campaigners, Taiwan was gradually transformed from authoritarian rule into a democracy, and it held the first direct presidential election in 1996.

The KMT is now widely seen as friendlier to Beijing than the ruling DPP, and it accepts a so-called “1992 consensus”, a tacit understanding that both Taipei and Beijing acknowledge they belong to “one China”, but with different interpretations of what that entails.

Tsai, on the other hand, has refused to acknowledge the consensus. The position of her DPP is to defend Taiwan’s status quo as an independent government and expand its international space against an increasingly assertive Beijing.

Among the more notable victories in Friday’s mayoral races was that of Chiang Wan-an – the great-grandson of Chiang Kai-shek. He will become the next mayor of Taipei after beating the DPP’s Chen Shih-chung, who served as Taiwan’s health minister during the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a statement on Saturday night, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said the election results showed that most people in Taiwan valued “peace, stability and a good life”. It said Beijing will continue to “firmly oppose Taiwan independence and foreign interference.”

However, experts said the KMT’s victory did not necessarily reflect a shift in how Taiwan’s public viewed their relationship with mainland China.

“The election was voted on bread-and-butter issues, and I disagree that it signals a major impact on Taiwan’s cross-strait policies,” said J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior adviser for International Republican Institute.

“The outcome of this election is not reflective of what voters will be looking for in choosing the next president.”

Sung at Australia National University said it was too early to speculate over the KMT’s chances of winning the next presidential election in 2024, but felt this result had given it a boost.

“The KMT is now better positioned to be the (party) that unifies the opposition and attracts all the anti-status quo protest votes against the current administration,” he said.

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November 26, 2022
North Korea plans ‘world’s most powerful’ nuclear force, Kim Jong Un says | CNN

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CNN
—

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is planning to build “the world’s most powerful” nuclear force, state news agency KCNA reported on Sunday.

The “ultimate goal” behind North Korea’s nuclear program was to possess an “absolute force, unprecedented in the century,” Kim said Saturday as part of an order promoting dozens of military officials, the agency reported.

The order comes after what North Korea said was a “test firing of a new kind” of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on November 18.

The missile was a Hwaseong-17, according to KCNA, a huge rocket that is theoretically capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the United States mainland.

Kim commended the officials who developed the new missile in his comments.

He called the missile “the world’s strongest strategic weapon” and said it represented “a wonderful leap forward in the development of the technology of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles.”

With the development of the new ICBM, Kim said North Korea had demonstrated to the world “the confident, ever-victorious future of our state advancing toward the goal of building the world’s strongest army.”

In a letter sent to Kim recently, scientists from North Korea’s Academy of Defense Science said the test firing marked a “great historic victory” for the country and demonstrated North Korea’s sovereignty.

Kim himself attended the launch with a child believed to be his daughter, Ju Ae.

Pyongyang also released a video of the missile launch, only the third time it has done so since 2017, according to Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

While the test did show Pyongyang can launch a large ICBM and keep it aloft for more than an hour, North Korea still hasn’t demonstrated the ability to place a warhead atop a long-range ballistic missile – projectiles that are fired into space – that is able to survive the fiery reentry into Earth’s atmosphere.

But analysts say that with repeated tests, the North Koreans are refining their capabilities.

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November 26, 2022
Iran’s supreme leader praises paramilitary for crackdown on ‘rioters’ and ‘thugs’ | CNN

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CNN
—

Iran’s Supreme Leader has praised the country’s Basij paramilitary force for its role in the deadly crackdown on anti-regime protesters.

Meeting with Basij personnel in Tehran Saturday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described the popular protest movement as “rioters” and “thugs” backed by foreign forces and praised “innocent” Basij fighters for protecting the nation.

The Basij is a wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed to the streets as protests have swelled since September.

The protest movement was initially sparked by the death of 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police.

Amnesty International says the Basij have been ordered to “mercilessly confront” protesters.

“When facing the enemy on the field of battle the Basij has always shown itself to be courageous, not afraid of the enemy,” the Supreme Leader said Saturday.

“You saw in the most recent events, our innocent and oppressed Basijis became the targets of oppression so that they wouldn’t allow the nation to become the targets of rioters and thugs and those on the [enemy] payroll, whether wittingly or unwittingly. They gave of themselves to free others,” Khamenei said.

Khamenei’s words come a day after United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Chief Volker Turk warned Iran is in a “full-fledged human rights crisis” due to the clampdown on anti-regime dissidents.

Turk called for “independent, impartial and transparent investigative processes” into violations of human rights in Iran during a special session of the UN Human Rights Council on Thursday.

He told the 47-member states council in Geneva that security forces have reportedly responded to protests by using lethal force against unarmed demonstrators and bystanders who posed “no threat.”

More than 14,000 people, including children, have been arrested in connection with the protests, according to Turk. He said that at least 21 of them currently face the death penalty and six have already received death sentences.

Among those arrested are two well-known Iranian actors, Hengameh Ghaziani and Katayoun Riahi, who were taken into custody on separate occasions for publicly backing the nationwide protests, according to the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

The Islamic Republic has been gripped by a wave of anti-government protests sparked by the death of Amini allegedly for not wearing her hijab properly.

Authorities have since unleashed a deadly crackdown on demonstrators, with reports of forced detentions and physical abuse being used to target the country’s Kurdish minority group. In a recent CNN investigation, covert testimony revealed sexual violence against protesters, including boys, in Iran’s detention centers since the start of the unrest.

The unprecedented national uprising has taken hold of more than 150 cities and 140 universities in all 31 provinces of Iran, according to Turk.

The violent response of Iran’s security forces toward protesters has shaken diplomatic ties between Tehran and Western leaders.

The White House on Wednesday imposed its latest round of sanctions on three officials in Iran’s Kurdish region, after US Secretary Antony Blinken said he was “greatly concerned that Iranian authorities are reportedly escalating violence against protesters.”

During an interview with Indian broadcaster NDTV on Thursday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said foreign powers were intervening in Iranian internal affairs and creating “fallacious narratives.”

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November 26, 2022
Harris dives into Asian diplomacy amid questions back home about her political future | CNN Politics

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Palawan, Philippines
CNN
—

Vice President Kamala Harris is sticking close to her script when responding to what Democrats hope will once again be their greatest electoral mobilizer: Donald Trump and his third White House bid.

“The president said he intends to run and if he does, I will be running with him,” she told CNN on Tuesday – the first time she’d been asked about Trump’s 2024 candidacy, which he announced last week. She was addressing a gaggle of reporters aboard the Teresa Magbanua, a Philippine Coast Guard vessel stationed at the edge of the South China Sea.

Her cautious response at the end of a weeklong gaffe-free trip to Thailand and the Philippines could serve as a reflection of Harris’ vice presidency in its second year: toe the line but don’t make waves.

As she returns from Asia, she’s stuck in a swirl of uncertainty about her place in the party if the now 80-year-old President Joe Biden does not seek a second term. The President is expected to consider the decision over Thanksgiving and upcoming holidays with family, whose advice he’ll seek about running for reelection.

Harris’ trip to Asia – her third to the region since taking office – was another chance for America’s first South Asian vice president to showcase her ability to lead in the traditional ways of the vice presidency without overstepping her role as No. 2.

She attended a series of bilateral meetings and greetings with Asian prime ministers and presidents alike, including China’s President Xi Jinping, called a last-minute high-profile meeting with Indo-Pacific countries after North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile hours before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’ summit began and went on a symbolic visit to the Philippines’ archipelago island of Palawan, which could potentially heighten tensions with China.

With Biden in Washington, DC, for his granddaughter’s wedding, Harris continued her role as his top-ranking envoy in a trip meant to deepen ties to mostly friendly Asian nations and cast the US as the region’s best option for economic stability –part of an ongoing effort to counter China’s growing influence.

The vice president called the trip a success, as she brandished her policy chops in the region, attempting to fashion herself as a deft leader who speaks for Biden in his absence.

“It is very important that we were here today to restate the United States commitment to international rules and norms. This trip and this visit in particular has also been about demonstrating the strength and importance of our relationship with the Philippines both as it relates to economic issues and also security issues,” Harris said in Palawan, in a speech where she rejected China’s aggression in the South China Sea and announced funding initiatives ameant to beef up the country’s systems and deepen security ties.

Still, Harris’ events were tightly scripted and the trip itself, highly choreographed.

Harris’ “brief greeting” with Xi, as her office described it, was her first face-to-face meeting with the world leader, happening on the margins of APEC. It was likely Harris’ most high-profile moment of the trip, despite the lack of US press in the room to witness it. The vice president met with him just a week after Biden’s first in-person bilateral with Xi, which lasted three hours.

But unlike the president, who can share as much of a conversation as he pleases, there was an obvious limit to how much Harris felt comfortable sharing. She repeatedly declined to go far beyond what was written in a carefully calculated statement on her meeting with Xi.

“We discussed that we are keeping open lines of communication, that we do not seek conflict or confrontation, but we welcome competition,” Harris told reporters in a press conference wrapping up her trip to Thailand, dodging twice whether that conversation touched on North Korea or Taiwan.

If the goal was to remain gaffe free, the planning seems to have paid off. The Republican National Committee only clipped on Twitter moments thatmay have been awkward but didn’t lend themselves to real criticism –unusual treatment for one of their most attacked Democrats.

On the first day of APEC, a “deeply concerned” Harris rushed aides to convene a last-minute unannounced multi-lateral emergency meeting with Indo-Pacific region allies, according to a senior administration official, after North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile Friday morning– her second most high-profile moment of the trip.

Harris directed her team once she was briefed on the latest launch, a White House official said utilizing the Indo-Pacific nation’s presence at the APEC Leaders Summit to do so. At the head of a u-shaped table inside a small room in the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, the vice president accused North Korea of “brazen violation of multiple UN security resolutions.”

“This conduct by North Korea most recently is a brazen violation of multiple UN Security resolutions. It destabilizes security in the region, and unnecessarily raises tensions. We strongly condemn these actions, and we again call North Korea to stop further unlawful destabilizing,” Harris said. “On behalf of the United States, I reaffirmed our ironclad commitment to our Indo Pacific Alliance.”

Her statement closely tracked one the National Security Council issued hours earlier on Biden’s behalf, almost to a tee.

The last-minute nature of the meeting caused aides to move quickly to corral the US press, but without time to pre-set cameras, press from the US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Korea were fighting for an angle – causing the photo-op visuals to be at times shaky and askew.

Still, it was a moment that looked almost presidential for Harris as it was reminiscent of the emergency in-person meeting Biden convened with top allies during his final day at the G20 in Indonesia, when a Russian-made missile fell inside the borders of a NATO ally.

But the presidential posturing had limits. During the weeklong trip, the vice president only answered political and policy questions on two separate occasions from the group of all women reporters traveling with her from Washington – taking two or three questions each time.

Harris didn’t stray from talking points in her answers, careful not to move beyond Biden’s position on a multitude of issues.

Harris has long sought opportunities to showcase her own interests and craft her own lane as a younger vice president with potential presidential ambitions.

Domestically, she has taken the lead for the administration on abortion rights. And on foreign trips, Harris has told aides she wants to go outside of the box when it comes to the schedule. A major part of that has been to meet with women and families in different countries.

That directive was evident in Manila, when she participated in a moderated conversation about women’s empowerment and entrepreneurship inside a ballroom in the Sofitel.

“On the issue of the economic wellbeing of women, I think we all know, and I feel very strongly, you lift up the economic status of a woman, her family will be lifted. Her community will be lifted,” Harris said as the Filipino women nodded in agreement. “All of society will benefit. Lift up the economic status of women, and all of society benefits.”

In the Palawan fishing village of Tagburos, Harris watched women clean fish in front of a picturesque backdrop to talk about the devastation climate change and illegal fishing has had on the village.

“Hi ma’am,” they yelled as she approached. Harris’ translator introduced the women as her best friends.

“Best friends,” Harris said, with a laugh and a wave.

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November 24, 2022
Pakistan to appoint former spy chief as new head of army | CNN

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Islamabad, Pakistan
CNN
—

Pakistan on Thursday named former spy chief Lt. Gen. Syed Asim Munir as chief of the South Asian country’s army, ending weeks of speculation over an appointment that comes amid intense debate around the military’s influence on public life.

In a Twitter post, Information Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb said Munir’s appointment would be ratified once a summary sent by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif had been signed by the country’s president.

Munir, a former head of the country’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, will take over from Army Chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, who will retire on November 29 after six years in what is normally a three-year post.

The Pakistani military is often accused of meddling in the politics of a country that has experienced numerous coups and been ruled by generals for extended periods since its formation in 1947, so the appointment of new army chiefs is often a highly politicized issue.

Munir’s appointment may prove controversial with supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was ousted from office in April after losing the backing of key political allies and the military amid accusations he had mismanaged the economy.

Munir was removed from his office at the ISI during Khan’s term and the former prime minister has previously claimed – without evidence – that the Pakistani military and Sharif conspired with the United States to remove him from power. After Khan was wounded in a gun attack at a political rally in early November, he also accused a senior military intelligence officer – without evidence – of planning his assassination.

Both the Pakistani military and US officials have denied Khan’s claims.

Khan is yet to comment on Munir’s appointment, though his party the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) said in a tweet Thursday that he would “act according to the constitution and laws.”

Khan aside, the new army chief will have plenty on his plate, entering office at a time when – in addition to a burgeoning economic crisis – Pakistan faces the aftermath of the worst floods in its history. He will also have to navigate the country’s notoriously rocky relationship with its neighbor India.

On Wednesday, outgoing army chief Bajwa said the army was often criticized despite being busy “in serving the nation.” He said a major reason for this was the army’s historic “interference” in Pakistani politics, which he called “unconstitutional.”

He said that in February this year, the military establishment had “decided to not interfere in politics” and was “adamant” in sticking to this position.

Pakistan, a nation of 220 million, has been ruled by four different military rulers and seen three military coups since it was formed. No prime minister has ever completed a full five-year term under the present constitution of 1973.

Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Atlantic Council, said the military institution “has lost so much of its reputation,” and the new chief had plenty of battles ahead.

“In historical terms an army chief needs three months to settle into his role, the new chief might not have that privilege,” Younus said. “With ongoing political polarization there might be the temptation to intervene politically again.”

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November 24, 2022
Kim Jong Un took his daughter to a missile launch and no one is quite sure why | CNN

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Seoul, South Korea
CNN
—

Father and daughter walking hand in hand near a towering weapon of mass destruction.

That was the scene North Korea showed the world on Saturday as state media released the first pictures of Kim Jong Un with a child believed to be his daughter, Ju Ae, inspecting what experts say is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

North Korea said the missile launched Friday from Pyongyang International Airfield was a Hwasong-17, a huge rocket that could theoretically deliver a nuclear warhead to the mainland United States.

But even after Kim warned that his nuclear forces are prepared to engage in “actual war” with Washington and its allies South Korea and Japan, it was the girl, not the missile, who grabbed the world’s attention.

What did her presence at the launch mean? Could she be a possible successor to Kim? What does an approximately 9-year-old girl have to do with nuclear arms?

Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said the girl’s presence should be seen through a domestic lens.

“Outside North Korea, it may appear deranged to pose for the cameras hand in hand with a child in front of a long-range missile designed to deliver a nuclear weapon to a distant city,” Easley said.

“But inside North Korea, a purportedly successful launch of the world’s largest road-mobile ICBM is cause for national celebration.”

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in the South, also noted the domestic tilt in the images of Kim’s daughter.

“By showing some quality time with his daughter, it looked like he (Kim) wanted to show his family as a good and stable one, and to show himself as a leader for normal people,” Yang told Canadian broadcaster Global News.

The images also presented the girl as a key member of the Kim bloodline, Yang said.

North Korea has been ruled as a hereditary dictatorship since its founding in 1948 by Kim Il Sung. His son, Kim Jong Il, took over after his father’s death in 1994. And Kim Jong Un took power 17 years later when Kim Jong Il died.

But any near-term change in the North Korean leadership is highly unlikely.

Kim Jong Un is only 38 years old. And even if some unexpected problem were to take his life, Ju Ae is likely at least a decade or more away from being able to replace her father atop the North Korean state.

“I’m genuinely unsure about the succession implications of his daughter being introduced,” said Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“On the one hand, publicly revealing (a) child can’t be taken lightly by any North Korean leader, but she’s underage and her role at the test wasn’t particularly punched up by state media,” he said.

Panda noted that video released by North Korea of Friday’s ICBM launch may prove much more valuable to Western intelligence than anything gleaned from Kim’s daughter’s presence.

“The US has sophisticated sources and methods that’ll give it tremendous insight into North Korea’s missiles, but the video may be helpful for building a more complete model of the missile’s performance,” he said.

“In the past, analysts have used videos to derive the acceleration of the missile at launch, which can help us identify its overall performance.”

It was only the third time Pyongyang has released a video of a missile launch since 2017, according to Panda.

“The North Koreans used to be considerably more transparent prior to 2017, when their primary concern was the credibility of their nuclear deterrent,” he said.

While Friday’s test did show Pyongyang can launch a large ICBM and keep it aloft for more than an hour, North Korea still hasn’t demonstrated the ability to place a warhead atop a long-range ballistic missile – projectiles that are fired into space – that’s able to survive the fiery reentry into Earth’s atmosphere before plunging to their target.

But analysts say with their repeated tests, the North Koreans are refining their processes. A missile believed to be a Hwasong-17 ICBM tested earlier this month failed in the early stages of its flight.

“The fact that (Friday’s test) didn’t blow up indicates they have made progress in fixing the technical issues that marked previous tests,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.

What comes next from North Korea is anybody’s guess.

For much of this year, Western analysts and intelligence sources have been predicting North Korea will test a nuclear weapon, with satellite imagery showing activity at the nuclear test site. Such a test would be Pyongyang’s first in five years.

But Yang, the University of North Korean Studies president, told Global News that Friday’s test may have dampened any urgency for a nuclear test, at least for the time being.

“The possibility of North Korea’s seventh nuclear test to be conducted in November seems a little low now,” he said.

But another ICBM test could be Pyongyang’s response if the US continues to bolster its military presence in the region and expands exercises with South Korea and Japan, he said.

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November 20, 2022
Children’s deaths ‘must stop’ in Iran, says UNICEF, as protests continue | CNN

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CNN
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The United Nations children’s agency, UNICEF, said it remains deeply concerned by reports of children being killed, injured, and detained in Iran, it said in a statement on Friday, adding that the reported deaths of children at anti-government protests “must stop.”

An “estimated 50 children have reportedly lost their lives in the public unrest in Iran,” UNICEF said in the statement.

This comes as the unrest in Iran has continued for more than two months, and amid increasing calls from protesters and activists online to UNICEF, Amnesty International and other human rights organizations to take action on human rights violations and crimes against children taking plane in Iran.

Many tell CNN that they feel their voices have not been heard. “They just say, hey, Islamic Republic, what are you doing is bad,” one protester in Iran told CNN. “Yes, everybody knows it’s bad. Three-year-old children know it’s bad, but we need actual action. Do something. I don’t know. I believe they know better than us what they can do.”

“In Iran, UNICEF remains deeply concerned by reports of children being killed, injured, and detained,” the statement read, citing the death of a young boy named Kian Pirfalak, one of seven people killed during Wednesday’s protests in the southwestern city of Izeh. “This is terrifying and must stop,” the organization added.

UNICEF reported Pirfalak’s age as 10-years-old. Iranian state media has reported his age as nine.

The child was traveling in a car on Wednesday with his family when he was shot dead and his father injured by gunfire, his mother told state media in an interview with Tasnim Friday.

According to Iran’s state-aligned news agency ISNA, protesters set a seminary on fire around the same time as people were shot and killed in Izeh in what state media outlets are calling a “terror attack.”

Activists are accusing the Iranian regime of killing Kian and others in Izeh.

The Islamic Republic is facing one of the biggest and unprecedented shows of dissent in recent history following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman detained by the morality police allegedly for not wearing her hijab properly.

At least 378 people have been killed since demonstrations began, according to an Iranian human rights group, as the country’s Supreme Leader issued a warning that the protest movement is “doomed to failure.”

The organization Iran Human Rights published the estimated death toll Saturday, adding that it includes 47 children killed by security forces.

CNN cannot independently verify arrest figures, death tolls, and many of the accounts of those killed due to the Iranian government’s suppression of independent media, and internet shutdowns which decrease transparency in reporting on the ground. Nor can media directly access the government for their account on such cases, unless there is reporting on state media, the mouthpiece of the government.

Video shared by activist group 1500 Tasvir and others showed a large crowd gathered for Pirfalak funeral in his hometown in Izeh Friday.

Surrounded by mourners, his mother Zeynab Molaeirad is heard singing a children’s song, replacing the lyrics with words against Ayatollah Khamenei and the regime. She then reveals new details about the fatal incident, according to a video shared on social media.

“Hear it from my mouth what really happened to Kian,” she told the crowd, “So the regime doesn’t lie and say it was a terrorist.”

Molaeirad, who was traveling with her family in their car, said people on the street yelled at the vehicle to turn back and that her son told his father not to worry.

“Kian said: ‘Baba trust the police for once and turn around, they are looking out for us,’” she said.

His father made a U-turn and drove towards the police, his mother said. But “because the car windows were rolled up, the police thought we may have wanted to shoot at them,” she said.

“They opened a barrage of fire on the car.”

Kian’s mother also posted a photo with her son in her Instagram post. “My broken flower. Curse on the Islamic Republic,” she wrote.

Human rights groups have accused Iranian authorities of scaring victims’ families to silence. Iranian authorities are “systematically harassing and intimidating victims’ families to hide the truth” of their deaths, as Amnesty International’s Heba Morayef said in a recent report.

The United Nations on Friday said it was “deeply worried about growing violence related to the ongoing popular protests in Iran,” said deputy spokesman for the UN Secretary-General Farhan Haq.

“We condemn all incidents that have resulted in death or serious injury, including the shooting in the city of Izeh on 16 November 2022. We are also concerned about the reported issuance of death sentences against five unnamed individuals in the context of the latest protests,” Haq said.

Haq urged Iranian authorities to respect international human rights law and avoid the use of excessive force against peaceful protesters.

Despite the UN’s condemnation, Iranians have been highly critical of the global organization and its agencies, saying the its words are not enough and that there is a lack of action against human rights violations taking place in Iran.

Stories like Parfalik’s “have led Iranians inside and outside the country to really be demanding justice asking what UNICEF is doing on the ground to stop this,” said Iranian American human rights lawyer Gissou Nia said in an interview with CNN’s Isa Soares Friday.

Nia, who is also director of the Strategic Litigation Project at the Atlantic Council went on to say that the UN Human Rights Council is meeting in Geneva on Thursday in a special session to address “the deteriorating human rights situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

“The outcome of that special session will likely be an investigative mechanism or some kind of independent body that can collect, preserve and analyze evidence of what’s happening here for accountability purposes,” Nia said.

“What would be absolutely shameful is if that 47-member body votes no” to creating such a mechanism, she added.

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November 19, 2022
World leaders met all week to address global issues. Putin appears to no longer have a seat at the table | CNN

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Bangkok, Thailand
CNN
—

The three major summits of world leaders that took place across Asia in the past week have made one thing clear: Vladimir Putin is now sidelined on the world stage.

Putin, whose attack on Ukraine over the past nine months has devastated the European country and roiled the global economy, declined to attend any of the diplomatic gatherings – and instead found himself subject to significant censure as international opposition to his war appeared to harden.

A meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders in Bangkok closed on Saturday with a declaration that references nations’ stances expressed in other forums, including in a UN resolution deploring “in the strongest terms” Russian aggression against Ukraine, while noting differing views.

It echoes verbatim a declaration from the Group of 20 (G20) leaders summit in Bali earlier this week.

‘Beyond logic’: Retired general baffled by Russia’s military move

“Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy,” the document said, adding that there were differing “assessments” on the situation within the group.

Discussions within the summits aside, the week has also shown Putin – who it is believed launched his invasion in a bid to restore Russia’s supposed former glory – as increasingly isolated, with the Russian leader hunkered down in Moscow and unwilling even to face counterparts at major global meetings.

A fear of potential political maneuvers against him should he leave the capital, an obsession with personal security and a desire to avoid scenes of confrontation at the summits – especially as Russia faces heavy losses in the battlefield – were all likely calculations that went into Putin’s decision, according to Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Meanwhile, he may not want to turn unwanted attention on the handful of nations that have remained friendly to Russia, for example India and China, whose leaders Putin saw in a regional summit in Uzbekistan in September.

“He doesn’t want to be this toxic guy,” Gabuev said.

But even among countries who have not taken a hardline against Russia, there are signs of lost patience, if not with Russia itself, than against the knock-on effects of its aggression. Strained energy, issues of food security and spiraling global inflation are now squeezing economies the world over.

Indonesia, which hosted the G20, has not explicitly condemned Russia for the invasion, but its President Joko Widodo told world leaders on Tuesday “we must end the war.”

India, which has been a key purchaser of Russia’s energy even as the West shunned Russian fuel in recent months, also reiterated its call to “find a way to return to the path of ceasefire” at the G20. The summit’s final declaration includes a sentence saying, “Today’s era must not be of war” – language that echoes what Modi told Putin in September, when they met on the sidelines of the summit in Uzbekistan.

It’s less clear if China, whose strategic partnership with Russia is bolstered by a close rapport between leader Xi Jinping and Putin, has come to any shift in stance. Beijing has long refused to condemn the invasion, or even refer to it as such. It’s instead decried Western sanctions and amplified Kremlin talking points blaming the US and NATO for the conflict, although this rhetoric has appeared to be somewhat dialed back on its state-controlled domestic media in recent months.

In sidelines meetings with Western leaders this past week, however, Xi reiterated China’s call for a ceasefire through dialogue, and, according to readouts from his interlocutors, agreed to oppose the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine – although those remarks were not included in China’s account of the talks.

But observers of China’s foreign policy say its desire to maintain strong ties with Russia likely remains unshaken.

“While these statements are an indirect criticism of Vladimir Putin, I don’t think they are aimed at distancing China from Russia,” said Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Xi is saying these things to an audience that wants to hear them.”

Russian isolation, however, appears even more stark against the backdrop of Xi’s diplomatic tour in Bali and Bangkok this week.

Though US President Joe Biden’s administration has named Beijing – not Moscow – the “most serious long-term challenge” to the global order, Xi was treated as a valuable global partner by Western leaders, many of whom met with the Chinese leader for talks aimed at increasing communication and cooperation.

Xi had an exchange with US Vice President Kamala Harris, who is representing the US at the APEC summit in Bangkok, at the event on Saturday. Harris said in a Tweet after she noted a “key message” from Biden’s G20 meeting with Xi – the importance of maintaining open lines of communication “to responsibly manage the competition between our countries.”

And in an impassioned call for peace delivered to a meeting of business leaders alongside the APEC summit on Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron appeared to draw a distinction between Russia’s actions and tensions with China.

While referencing US-China competition and increasing confrontation in Asia’s regional waters, Macron said: “What makes this war different is that it is an aggression against international rules. All countries … have stability because of international rules,” before calling for Russia to come back “to the table” and “respect international order.”

The urgency of that sentiment was heightened after a Russian-made missile landed in Poland, killing two people on Tuesday, during the G20 summit. As a NATO member, a threat to Polish security could trigger a response from the whole bloc.

The situation defused after initial investigation suggested the missile came from the Ukrainian side in an accident during missile defense – but highlighted the potential for a miscalculation to spark a world war.

A day after that situation, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pointed to what he called a “split-screen.”

NATO must keep ‘cool head’ over missile incident in Poland, says Estonian PM

07:40

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CNN

“As the world works to help the most vulnerable people, Russia targets them; as leaders worldwide reaffirmed our commitment to the UN Charter and international rules that benefit all our people, President Putin continues to try to shred those same principles,” Blinken told reporters Thursday night in Bangkok.

Coming into the week of international meetings, the US and its allies were ready to project that message to their international peers. And while strong messages have been made, gathering consensus around that view has not been easy – and differences remain.

The G20 and APEC declarations both acknowledge divisions between how members voted in the UN to support its resolution “deploring” Russian aggression, and say that while most members “strongly condemned” the war, “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”

Even making such an expression with caveats was an arduous process at both summits, according to officials. Indonesia’s Jokowi said G20 leaders were up until “midnight” discussing the paragraph on Ukraine.

“There was a lot of pressure that came after the G20 reached consensus on their communique,” Matt Murray, the US senior official for APEC said in an interview with CNN after the summit’s close, adding the US had been consistent during lower-level meetings “all year long” on the need to address the war in the forum, given its impact on trade and food security.

“In each and every instance where we didn’t get consensus earlier, it was because Russia blocked the statement,” he said. Meanwhile, “economies in the middle” were concerned about the invasion, but not sure it should be part of the agenda, according to Murray, who said statements released this week at APEC were the result of more than 100 hours of talks, in person and online.

Nations in the groupings have various geo-strategic and economic relationships with Russia, which impact their stances. But another concern some Asian nations may have is whether measures to censure Russia are part of an American push to weaken Moscow, according former Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon, speaking to CNN in the days ahead of the summit.

Ex-Russian official who turned on Putin predicts his next moves

“Countries are saying we don’t want to just be a pawn in this game to be used to weaken another power,” said Suphamongkhon, an advisory board member of the RAND Corporation Center for Asia Pacific Policy. Instead framing censure of Russia around its “violation of international law and war crimes that may have been committed” would hit on aspects of the situation that “everyone rejects here,” he said.

Rejection of Russia along those lines may also send a message to China, which itself has flouted an international ruling refuting its territorial claims in the South China Sea and has vowed to “reunify” with the self-governing democracy of Taiwan, which it’s never controlled, by force if necessary.

While efforts this week may have upped pressure on Putin, the Russian leader has experience with such dynamics: prior to Putin’s expulsion over his annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, the Group of Seven (G7) bloc was the Group of Eight – and it remains to be seen whether the international expressions will have an impact.

But without Putin in the fold, leaders stressed this week, suffering will go on – and there will be a hole in the international system.

This story has been updated with new information.

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November 19, 2022
Russian dissident Alexey Navalny says he was moved into solitary cell to ‘shut me up’ | CNN

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CNN
—

Imprisoned Russian dissident Alexey Navalny has been transferred into a solitary prison cell, according to tweets from himself and his staff, in what he described as a move designed to “shut me up.”

Navalny, a prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, explained what happened in a Thursday Twitter thread: “Congratulations, I’ve moved up one more level in the hierarchy of prison offenders,” Navalny wrote with irony, adding that prison officials moved him to a cramped “cell-type room.”

Cell-type rooms are used as punishment or to separate the most dangerous offenders in the Russian penitentiary system. Inmates in Russian penal colonies are more typically housed in barracks instead of cells according to a report by Poland-based think tank the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW).

In his isolation, Navalny said that he is allowed just two books and can use prison commissary, “albeit with a very limited budget.”

But the “real indescribable bestiality, very characteristic of the Kremlin, which manually controls my entire incarceration,” is the blocking of visits, he said. His parents, children and wife were due to visit, but he will no longer get to see them, Navalny wrote.

“Alexey Navalny was transferred to a cell-type room. It’s like a punishment cell, only not for 15 days, but forever,” wrote his spokesperson Kira Yarmysh on Twitter.

According to the Russian penal code, detention in a cell-type room cannot exceed six months. CNN has reached out to Russian penitentiary services for comment.

Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent in 2020, an attack several Western officials and Navalny himself openly blamed on the Kremlin. Russia has denied any involvement.

After a five-month stay in Germany recovering from the Novichok poisoning, Navalny last year returned to Moscow, where he was immediately arrested for violating probation terms imposed from a 2014 case.

Earlier this year, Navalny was sentenced to nine years in prison on fraud charges he said were politically motivated.

While Judge Margarita Kotova read out the accusations against him, footage showed Navalny as a gaunt figure standing beside his lawyers in a room filled with security officials. He appeared unmoved by the proceedings, looking through some court documents on a table in front of him.

Navalny was then transferred in June from a penal colony where he was serving his term to a higher security prison facility in Melekhovo in the Vladimir Region.

“They’re doing it to shut me up,” Navalny said in Thursday’s Twitter thread about his new prison conditions. “So what’s my first duty? That’s right, to not be afraid and not shut up,” he writes, urging others to do the same.

“At every opportunity, campaign against the war, Putin and United Russia. Hugs to you all.”

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November 18, 2022
Asia must not become arena for ‘big power contest,’ says China’s Xi as APEC summit gets underway | CNN

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Bangkok, Thailand
CNN
—

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has stressed the need to reject confrontation in Asia, warning against the risk of cold war tensions, as leaders gather for the last of three world summits hosted in the region this month.

Xi began the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in Bangkok by staking out his wish for China to be viewed as a driver of regional unity in a written speech released ahead of Friday’s opening day – which also appeared to make veiled jabs at the United States.

The Asia-Pacific region is “no one’s backyard” and should not become “an arena for big power contest,” Xi said in the statement, in which he also decried “any attempt to politicize and weaponize economic and trade relations.”

“No attempt to wage a new cold war will ever be allowed by the people or by our times,” he added in the remarks, which were addressed to business leaders meeting alongside the summit and did not name the US.

Xi struck a milder tone in a separate address to APEC leaders on Friday morning as the main event got underway, calling for stability, peace and the development of a “more just world order.”

Leaders and representatives from 21 economies on both sides of the Pacific meeting in the Thai capital for the two-day summit will grapple with that question of how best to promote stability, in a region sitting on the fault lines of growing US-China competition and grappling with regional tensions and the economic fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Those challenges were palpable Friday morning, as North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the second weapons test by Kim Jong Un’s regime in two days amid increased provocation from Pyongyang.

US Vice President Kamala Harris gathered on the sidelines of the summit with leaders from Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Canada to condemn the launch in an unscheduled media briefing.

In a speech Friday to business leaders, Harris said the US had a “profound stake” in the region, and described America as a “strong partner” to its economies and a “major engine of global growth.”

Without mentioning China in her address, she also promoted American initiatives to counter Beijing’s regional influence, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, launched by Washington earlier this year, and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.

“The US is here to stay,” said the vice president, who is representing the US at the summit after US President Joe Biden returned home for a family event after attending meetings around the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia and the G20 summit in Bali in recent days.

Despite the US-China rivalry, the three summits have also brought opportunities to defuse rising tensions and strained communication between the world’s top two powers.

US-China relations have deteriorated sharply in recent years, with the two sides clashing over Taiwan, the war in Ukraine, North Korea, and the transfer of technology among other issues.

In August, following a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, China fired multiple missiles into waters around the self-governing island and ramped up naval and warplane exercises in the surrounding area. Beijing claims the democratic island as its territory, despite never having controlled it, and suspended a number of dialogues with the US over the visit.

A landmark meeting between Xi and Biden on the sidelines of the G20 in Bali on Monday – the leaders’ first since Biden took office – ended with the two sides agreeing to bolster communication and collaborate on issues like climate and food security.

After landing in Bangkok Thursday, Chinese leader Xi sat down with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in the first meeting between leaders of the two Asian countries in nearly three years. Both sides called for more cooperation following a breakdown in communication over points of contention from Taiwan to disputed islands.

At stake in the broader meeting, however, is whether leaders can find consensus on how to treat Russia’s aggression in a concluding document, or whether differences in views between the broad grouping of nations will stymie such a result, despite months of discussion between APEC nations’ lower-level officials.

In an address to business leaders alongside the summit Friday morning, French President Emmanuel Macron, who was invited by host country Thailand, called for consensus and unity against Moscow’s aggression.

“Help us to convey the same message to Russia: stop the war, respect the international order and come back to the table,” he said.

Macron also called out the US-China rivalry, warning of the risk to peace if countries are forced to choose between the two great powers.

“We need a single global order,” Macron said to applause from business leaders.

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November 18, 2022
North Korea fires ICBM into sea off Japan, according to South Korean officials | CNN

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Seoul, South Korea
CNN
—

North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday, the second missile test by the Kim Jong Un regime in two days, in actions condemned as unacceptable by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The ICBM was launched around 10:15 a.m. local time from the Sunan area of the North Korean capital Pyongyang, and flew about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) east, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

Kishida said it likely fell in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), about 210 kilometers (130 miles) west of the Japanese island of Oshima Oshima, according to the Japan Coast Guard. It did not fly over Japan.

“North Korea is continuing to carry out provocative actions at frequency never seen before,” Kishida told reporters Friday at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.

“I want to restate that we cannot accept such actions,” he said.

The Japanese government will continue to collect and analyze information and provide prompt updates to the public, he said. So far, there have been no reports of damage to vessels at sea, Kishida added.

The ICBM reached an altitude of about 6,100 kilometers (3,790 miles) at Mach 22, or 22 times the speed of sound, according to the JCS, which said details were being analyzed by intelligence authorities in South Korea and the US.

Friday’s missile was about 100 kilometers short in altitude and distance compared to Pyongyang’s missile test on March 24, which recorded the highest altitude and longest duration of any North Korean missile ever tested, according to a report from the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) at the time. That missile reached an altitude of 6,248.5 kilometers (3,905 miles) and flew a distance of 1,090 kilometers (681 miles), KCNA reported.

Calling the launch a “significant provocation and a serious act of threat,” the JCS warned the North of violating the UN Security Council’s resolution and urged it to stop immediately.

The Misawa Air Base issued a shelter in place alert after the firing of the missile, according to US Air Force Col. Greg Hignite, director of public affairs for US Forces Japan. It has now been lifted and the US military is still analyzing the flight path, he said.

US President Joe Biden has been briefed on the missile launch and his national security team will “continue close consultations with Allies and partners,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in statement Friday.

“The door has not closed on diplomacy, but Pyongyang must immediately cease its destabilizing actions and instead choose diplomatic engagement,” Watson said. “The United States will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and Republic of Korea and Japanese allies.”

Friday’s launch comes one day after Pyongyang fired a short-range ballistic missile into the waters off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, and issued a stern warning to the United States of a “fiercer military counteraction” to its tighter defense ties with South Korea and Japan.

It’s the second suspected test launch of an ICBM this month – an earlier missile fired on November 3 appeared to have failed, a South Korean government source told CNN at the time.

The aggressive acceleration in weapons testing and rhetoric has sparked alarm in the region, with the US, South Korea and Japan responding with missile launches and joint military exercises.

Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of International Studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said North Korea is “trying to disrupt international cooperation against it by escalating military tensions and suggesting it has the capability of holding American cities at risk of nuclear attack.”

North Korea has carried out missile tests on 34 days this year, sometimes firing multiple missiles in a single day, according to a CNN count. The tally includes both cruise and ballistic missiles, with the latter making up the majority of North Korean test this year.

There are substantial differences between these two types of missiles.

A ballistic missile is launched with a rocket and travels outside Earth’s atmosphere, gliding in space before it re-enters the atmosphere and descends, powered only by gravity to its target.

A cruise missile is powered by a jet engine, stays inside Earth’s atmosphere during its flight and is maneuverable with control surfaces similar to an airplane’s.

Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that while he wouldn’t see Friday’s presumed ICBM launch “as a message, per se,” it can be viewed as part of North Korea’s “process of developing capabilities Kim has identified as essential for the modernization of their nuclear forces.”

The US and international observers have been warning for months that North Korea appears to be preparing for an underground nuclear test, with satellite imagery showing activity at the nuclear test site. Such a test would be the hermit nation’s first in five years.

Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at Center for Non-proliferation Studies, said the ICBM test was designed to validate parts of North Korea’s missile program, something that Kim Jong Un has vowed to do this year.

The recent short-range tests “are exercises for frontline artillery units practicing preemptive nuclear strikes,” Lewis said.

He dismissed any political or negotiating message from the tests.

“I wouldn’t think about these tests as primarily signaling. North Korea isn’t interested talking right now,” Lewis said.

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November 17, 2022
Global investors are bullish again on China as Beijing switches to damage control | CNN Business

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Hong Kong
CNN Business
—

Market sentiment on Chinese stocks hit rock bottom just weeks ago after President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term in power and stacked his top team with loyalists in a clean sweep not seen since the Mao era.

But in the past week, a series of unexpected steps by Beijing — the easing of draconian zero-Covid restrictions, moves to salvage the ailing property sector and Xi’s personal return to the world stage -— have triggered a huge rally.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng

(HSI) Index has gained 14% since last Friday, putting it squarely into bull market territory, or more than 20% above its recent low. A key index of Chinese stocks in New York jumped 15% during the same period.

On the tightly controlled mainland markets, Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks have also advanced more than 2%.

“China continued to see a barrage of upside activity… as reopening measures are a clear buy signal,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner for SPI Asset Management. “We are in a sea change after China’s more progressive policy evolution arrived unexpectedly.”

Investors now have a “tactically constructive” view on China after key concerns were addressed by credible policy actions, according to Bank of America’s monthly survey of Asian fund managers released on Wednesday.

Some investment banks even upgraded their China growth forecasts following the policy changes. On Wednesday, ANZ Research hiked its China GDP forecast to 5.4% for 2023 from 4.2% previously.

“The changes reflect the party leadership’s intention to stop losses. They want to correct the market’s perception of China’s economic outlook, as President Xi Jinping interacts with global leaders at G20,” it said.

Investors sold off China stocks in October due to fears that Xi’s tightening grip on power would lead to the continuation of existing policies, such as zero-Covid and the common prosperity campaign, that have dragged down the economy and battered financial markets.

A leadership team loyal to Xi also suggested that China may continue to prioritize ideology over the kind of pragmatic decision-making that had enabled the country’s swift economic rise over the past four decades.

But the latest policy shifts, although not a full-throated economic opening, have been enough to excite investors and analysts waiting for any sign of China easing its rules.

From Bali to Bangkok, Xi returned to the world stage after a near three-year absence. There were encouraging signs, in particular, coming from the historic meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden on Monday, which fueled expectations for stronger economic ties between the two major world powers.

“The US’s willingness to set a ‘floor’ on US-China relations likely means the US is keen to find common ground with China to prevent extreme outcomes,” said Jefferies analysts in a research note earlier this week.

Chinese companies on Wall Street have been hammered by delisting risks since last year because of a simmering spat between the two countries over audits. In December, US regulators finalized rules to ban trading in shares of Chinese companies if they can’t access their audit papers, a request that had been denied by Beijing on national security grounds.

“We believe the Xi-Biden meeting could reduce the risk of Chinese ADRs being delisted,” the Jefferies analysts added.

In August, the two countries reached an agreement to allow US officials to inspect the audit papers of those firms, taking a first step toward resolving the dispute.

Reuters also reported Wednesday that US regulators gained “good access” in their review of auditing work done on New York-listed Chinese firms during a seven-week inspection in Hong Kong.

Despite this week’s rally, some analysts remain cautious. Qi Wang, CEO of MegaTrust Investment in Hong Kong, said the recovery may be driven by a lot of buying to close out previous short positions and money chasing quick returns.

“I don’t think the long-term appetite for China and Hong Kong shares will return so quickly. Right or wrong, there were some fatal blows to global investor confidence earlier this year,” Wang said.

“There is some good news recently, but the big institutional money still need time to assess the situation, including the economic prospect for next year,” he added.

Including the recent surge, the Hang Seng index is still down 23% this year, making it one of the world’s worst performing indices. The Nasdaq Golden China Index, a popular index tracking Chinese companies in New York, has plunged more than 33% so far in 2022.

“This week’s rally is a strong over-reaction to mildly positive news,” said Brock Silvers, Hong Kong-based chief investment officer at Kaiyuan Capital, a private equity investment firm. “The market was desperate for good news, but it’s foolish to think that once Covid is behind us we’ll return to the go-go days of high octane growth.”

Silvers added that the economic factors and political risks that made China “uninvestable” a month ago are still prevalent and are likely to reassert themselves before long.

China is still dealing with Covid outbreaks and remains firmly committed to measures long abandoned by most other nations. Even more serious is the real estate crisis and the risks that poses for the banking sector, he said, adding that the 16-point rescue plan Beijing announced last Friday did not go far enough.

Hao Hong, chief economist for Grow Investment Group, described the rally as sentiment-driven and technical in nature, because the market was previously oversold to an epic level.

But as winter is coming, Covid cases are set to rise.

“Whether we could deal with the resurgence with adequate medical facilities and without panic remains to be seen,” he said, adding it also remains uncertain how effective the new property support measures are and whether the developers can “rise from ashes.”

If China re-tightens Covid restrictions or US-China tension flares up again, market sentiment could plummet once more, he said.

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November 17, 2022