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Tag: policy meeting

  • Stocks and bitcoin slide as nerves fray ahead of Nvidia earnings

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    Wall Street kicked off the week on a sour note, with stocks and bitcoin tumbling as a risk-off attitude spread through markets.The Dow closed lower by 557 points, or 1.18%. The broader S&P 500 fell 0.92%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.84%.Video above: Lawmakers try to crack down on scams using crypto ATMs with new billWall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, jumped 13%. CNN’s Fear and Greed index traded in “extreme fear” and hit its lowest level since early April.Stocks fell on Monday as investors’ nerves intensified ahead of two key events this week: Nvidia (NVDA), the star of the artificial intelligence boom, is set to report earnings on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the September jobs report — long delayed because of the government shutdown — is set to be released.These two events will provide more insight about the issues that are “top of mind” for Wall Street, according to José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.Tech stocks have come under pressure this month as concerns linger about expensive valuations and enormous spending plans by big tech companies. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down almost 5.5% since hitting a record high in late October.Investors are trying to discern whether the AI trade is on stable foundations, and whether the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting in December.Meanwhile, bitcoin plunged on Monday to below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing its gains for this year. The cryptocurrency has tanked more than 28% in just six weeks after it hit a record high above $126,000 in early October.Video below: Best Money Moves to Make Right Now in a Volatile Economy | Expert Financial AdviceTech and crypto-related stocks led the S&P 500 lower on Monday. Coinbase (COIN), a crypto exchange, fell 7%.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Monday dipped below their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet. The 50-day moving average is a key threshold of support.”While the long-term uptrend is intact, we believe a corrective pullback/consolidation phase is already underway after the market’s six-month winning streak,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said in a note.Stocks are coming off a volatile week. Tech stocks took a bruising last week before investors swooped in on Friday to buy the dip.Investors this week are gearing up for a potential market-moving event with Nvidia’s earnings. The chipmaker accounts for roughly 8% of the S&P 500’s market value. Nvidia shares fell 1.83% on Monday, weighing on the broader market.”The monthly jobs report would normally dominate this week’s economic calendar, but with the AI trade struggling the past couple of weeks, Nvidia’s earnings are once again looking like a key piece of the market’s momentum puzzle,” Chris Larkin, managing director at Morgan Stanley’s E-Trade, said in an email.The recent stock market rally is also being tested as investors adjust to the prospect that the Fed might pause its interest rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting next month. Traders are pricing in a 45% chance that the Fed cuts rates in December, according to CME FedWatch. That’s down from a 94% chance one month ago.Stocks have rallied on optimism about Fed rate cuts. Nerves are mounting that the central bank may prioritize concerns about stubborn inflation.”Data releases starting this week should provide a clearer picture for one of the key risks over the coming weeks — the December Fed meeting,” Mohit Kumar, chief strategist and economist for Europe at Jefferies, said in a note.Investors this month have also rotated out of high-flying tech stocks and moved into sectors that have lagged behind and look relatively affordable.”This rotation is both expected and welcome, as it should unwind some of the frothiness … and allow this bull market the opportunity to catch its breath before resuming its advance,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said in a note.

    Wall Street kicked off the week on a sour note, with stocks and bitcoin tumbling as a risk-off attitude spread through markets.

    The Dow closed lower by 557 points, or 1.18%. The broader S&P 500 fell 0.92%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.84%.

    Video above: Lawmakers try to crack down on scams using crypto ATMs with new bill

    Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, jumped 13%. CNN’s Fear and Greed index traded in “extreme fear” and hit its lowest level since early April.

    Stocks fell on Monday as investors’ nerves intensified ahead of two key events this week: Nvidia (NVDA), the star of the artificial intelligence boom, is set to report earnings on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the September jobs report — long delayed because of the government shutdown — is set to be released.

    These two events will provide more insight about the issues that are “top of mind” for Wall Street, according to José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

    Tech stocks have come under pressure this month as concerns linger about expensive valuations and enormous spending plans by big tech companies. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down almost 5.5% since hitting a record high in late October.

    Investors are trying to discern whether the AI trade is on stable foundations, and whether the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting in December.

    Meanwhile, bitcoin plunged on Monday to below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, erasing its gains for this year. The cryptocurrency has tanked more than 28% in just six weeks after it hit a record high above $126,000 in early October.

    Video below: Best Money Moves to Make Right Now in a Volatile Economy | Expert Financial Advice

    Tech and crypto-related stocks led the S&P 500 lower on Monday. Coinbase (COIN), a crypto exchange, fell 7%.

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Monday dipped below their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet. The 50-day moving average is a key threshold of support.

    “While the long-term uptrend is intact, we believe a corrective pullback/consolidation phase is already underway after the market’s six-month winning streak,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, said in a note.

    Stocks are coming off a volatile week. Tech stocks took a bruising last week before investors swooped in on Friday to buy the dip.

    Investors this week are gearing up for a potential market-moving event with Nvidia’s earnings. The chipmaker accounts for roughly 8% of the S&P 500’s market value. Nvidia shares fell 1.83% on Monday, weighing on the broader market.

    “The monthly jobs report would normally dominate this week’s economic calendar, but with the AI trade struggling the past couple of weeks, Nvidia’s earnings are once again looking like a key piece of the market’s momentum puzzle,” Chris Larkin, managing director at Morgan Stanley’s E-Trade, said in an email.

    The recent stock market rally is also being tested as investors adjust to the prospect that the Fed might pause its interest rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting next month. Traders are pricing in a 45% chance that the Fed cuts rates in December, according to CME FedWatch. That’s down from a 94% chance one month ago.

    Stocks have rallied on optimism about Fed rate cuts. Nerves are mounting that the central bank may prioritize concerns about stubborn inflation.

    “Data releases starting this week should provide a clearer picture for one of the key risks over the coming weeks — the December Fed meeting,” Mohit Kumar, chief strategist and economist for Europe at Jefferies, said in a note.

    Investors this month have also rotated out of high-flying tech stocks and moved into sectors that have lagged behind and look relatively affordable.

    “This rotation is both expected and welcome, as it should unwind some of the frothiness … and allow this bull market the opportunity to catch its breath before resuming its advance,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said in a note.

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  • RBI may hike repo rate by 25 bps

    RBI may hike repo rate by 25 bps

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    A majority of the financial sector experts expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to settle for a moderate repo rate hike of 25 basis points in its policy review meeting this week. .

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    The MPC will start its three-day deliberations on the next set of monetary policy on Monday and the decision will be announced on February 8.

    Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das, in his last bi-monthly monetary policy statement on December 7, had underscored that: “Core inflation is exhibiting stickiness. While headline inflation may ease through the rest of the year and Q1 (April-June):2023-24, it is expected to rule above the target. On balance, the MPC was of the view that further calibrated monetary policy action is warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored, break core inflation persistence and contain second round effects. ”

    Referring to the aforementioned statement, experts are of the view that MPC may go for one more rate hike to ensure that inflation remains within the target (4 per cent +/- 2 per cent).

    However, some are of the view that MPC may press the pause button. They cited the latest retail inflation and IIP readings to buttress their case.

    Bank of Baroda’s economists, in a report, said: “Going ahead, the overall liquidity situation needs to be tracked as surpluses have dwindled to a near neutral state. The RBI policy will be watched in this regard.

    “The MPC would persist with another rate hike to bring the repo rate to 6.5 per cent for this cycle before a pause.”

    The MPC has hiked repo rate (the interest rate at which banks draw funds from RBI to overcome short-term liquidity mismatches) cumulatively by 225 basis points (from 4 per cent to 6.25 per cent) in FY23 so far.

    The MPC last hiked the repo rate by 35 basis points from 5.90 per cent to 6.25 per cent on December 7 th. Prior to that (on September 30, 2022), the committee had raised the repo rate by 50 basis points, from 5.40 per cent to 5.90 per cent..

    Kotak Securities, in a report, said that the global inflation environment is gradually turning benign although inflation is still well above every central bank’s target. Inflation will likely moderate further in the next few months, leading to the end of the rate hiking cycle by first half of Calendar Year (CY) 23 and possible rate cuts in late-2023/early-2024.

    “However, given large global uncertainties, central banks’ levers for supporting growth through monetary easing remain limited, thereby risking higher rates for an extended period.

    “We expect the RBI MPC to hike policy rate by 25 bps to 6.5 per cent, followed by a prolonged wait-and-watch approach, as it assesses the lagged impact of monetary tightening on growth and inflation,” the report said.

    Pause at the next meeting?

    Pankaj Pathak, Fund Manager- Fixed Income, Quantum AMC, observed that inflation has come down substantially over the last three months and is showing further downward momentum. External conditions have also eased with slower rate hikes in the US.

    RBI’s foreign exchange reserves have also increased over the last few months.

    Given these developments, MPC is expected to pause the rate hiking cycle in the February meeting and will maintain the repo rate at 6.25 per cent for an extended period, emphasised Pathak.

    “It might also change the policy stance to Neutral (from the current ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance). Bond market should react positively. We expect bond yields to go down gradually though elevated bond supply will limit the downside of yields,” he said.

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    BL Mumbai Bureau

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