ReportWire

Tag: Policies

  • Multnomah County Commissioner Shannon Singleton Proposes Deflection Program Reforms – KXL

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    PORTLAND, Ore. — Multnomah County Commissioner Shannon Singleton unveiled a sweeping set of reforms to the county’s Deflection Center Monday, which would improve the efficiency of the state-sponsored sobering program by linking its services to the county’s by-name-list and other housing and safety net services.

    “Today Multnomah County’s deflection center operates in isolation. Because of that, we’re not seeing the outcomes that voters and lawmakers expected. When 92 percent of the people law enforcement take to the deflection center are experiencing homelessness, it’s common sense to link our homelessness response to our deflection efforts.”

    Singleton’s proposals would better integrate the data systems of the deflection center with those of the Homeless Management Information System and Multnomah County’s By-Name-List, an individual accounting of people experiencing homelessness in the county. Other reforms would allow homeless service providers access to the deflection center to better coordinate care and quickly get people into housing; provide immediate entry into county clean and sober shelters for deflection participants; and better integrate behavioral health and housing services at the county.

    “I hope that this gives us a path forward to better services, better outcomes for the people we serve, and cost savings,” Singleton said. “I’m looking forward to working with my colleagues over the coming months to put these reforms in place.”

    Background

    In 2024, the Oregon Legislature passed House Bill 4002, which recriminalized possession of small amounts of illegal drugs while emphasizing treatment through law enforcement-initiated deflection. To comply, Multnomah County launched its deflection program on September 1st, 2024, operating out of the temporary Coordinated Care Pathway Center, managed by the County’s Health Department with services provided by Tuerk House. The program involves multiple partners, including Portland Police, the Sheriff’s Office, the District Attorney, the Department of Community Justice, Metropolitan Public Defender, the Multnomah County Circuit Court, the City of Portland Mayor’s Office, the County Departments of Community Justice and Health Department. Shelter, housing and long-term behavioral healthcare are accessed via referrals.

    Since the start of deflection in Multnomah County, the program has been collecting data related to how the deflection program works and who it serves. Recently, the program released its annual report which we should use to inform program improvements needed to align with “best practices and improve outcomes for individual program participants.” as envisioned by the State when HB4002 was passed.

    Key findings from the Annual Report –

    Since deflection began, 1044 referrals to services have been made for engaged deflection clients (9/1/2024 – 8/31/2025), with all clients receiving at least one referral as part of their custom care plan.

    Of the 354 unique clients served at the Pathway Center:

    92% were experiencing homelessness¹

    7% reported living in a personal residence, including permanent supportive housing

    72% of clients are 26-45 years old with the majority (41%) between 31-40.

    60% of clients require food assistance

    19% have self-reported physical conditions

    18% have self-reported mental health conditions.

    Problem

    While the deflection program has made significant progress at deflecting people from the criminal justice system, it has not yet maximized the opportunity to set the people being served onto a path of recovery from addiction or homelessness and improved outcomes for the individuals. With 92% of participants experiencing homelessness, it is unconscionable that we have not created a direct pathway into homeless services from deflection and sobering. We must redefine success for this program to include success for the people being served and address the following problems:

    Exiting the center and returning to unsheltered homelessness

    Lack of understanding if the person is already on the community By Name List (BNL) used to understand who is experiencing homelessness in the County

    Failure to connect people with any existing case managers and services that could be found in our Homeless Management Information System (HMIS).

    Requiring participants to navigate referrals on their own in order to be assessed for the level of addiction treatment needs (inpatient, outpatient, intensive outpatient)

    The deflection program and clean and sober homeless shelters are not currently a part of the continuum of addiction treatment services.

    Low numbers of participants from existing referral pathways.

    Proposed Reform

    I propose the following reforms in order to provide meaningful opportunities for people to have an opportunity to recover from addiction and/or homelessness:

    Provide immediate entry into County-funded clean and sober shelters from deflection and sobering by physically transporting people to the available shelter bed immediately upon their release from the center.

    Train deflection/sobering center staff to check the BNL and, if the person is not listed, complete the BNL questions and add them.

    Train deflection/sobering staff to check HMIS, reach out to any existing programs or case managers that have worked with the person in the past, and provide warm handoffs back into homelessness services.

    Conduct the needed assessments for inpatient treatment/transitional recovery housing, onsite at the center.

    Create a continuum of addiction treatment services from the center and other sobering services, to inpatient treatment/transitional recovery housing, intensive outpatient treatment, or outpatient services. Clean and sober homeless shelters need to be access points to inpatient and outpatient services.

    Allow all homeless services outreach and shelter providers to refer their clients to the center.

    Those living unsheltered, in a tent, temporarily staying with friends or family, in a vehicle, in a shelter, in hotels/motels, and in transitional housing.

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    Brett Reckamp

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  • ECB’s Key Interest Rate Is in a Good Place, Says Schnabel

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    The European Central Bank’s key interest rate is unlikely to change unless the eurozone economy is hit by another big shock, a member of its executive board said Wednesday.

    The ECB last month left its key rate at 2% for the third straight meeting, with inflation close to its target.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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    Paul Hannon

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  • Eurozone Retail Sales Edge Lower Despite Improving Sentiment

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    Retail sales in the eurozone unexpectedly inched lower in September, contrasting with some of the rosier sentiment among consumers in recent months.

    Volumes fell back 0.1%, the same rate as in August, statistics agency Eurostat said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had instead expected a 0.2% increase.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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    Ed Frankl

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  • French Inflation Picks Up Pace as ECB Looks Likely to Keep Rates in Place

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    Annual inflation picked up pace in France at the end of the summer, despite a political stalemate holding back economic activity, as the European Central Bank looks likely to keep interest rates untouched.

    Consumer prices rose 1.1% on year this month, EU-harmonized figures published by the country’s statistics authority showed Tuesday. That was a little less than economists had expected and keeps the rate below the 2% level targeted by the ECB, but nonetheless marks an increase to the fastest rate of annual inflation since the beginning of the year.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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    Joshua Kirby

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  • International student enrollment drops in U.S. amid policy changes

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    Colleges and universities across the United States are preparing for a significant drop in international student enrollment this fall as President Donald Trump aims to overhaul the vetting and admission process for foreign students.Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of the National Association of Foreign Student Advisers (NAFSA), said, “In terms of tuition dollars to universities, that will certainly be an impact, but in addition to universities, they contribute to the local economy.”The Association of International Educators says the drop in foreign enrollment could be as high as 15% this fall, which could deprive the U.S. economy of about $7 billion in spending, result in more than 60,000 fewer jobs, and strain school budgets across the country.Trump acknowledged the importance of international students last week, saying, “I like that other country students come here. And you know what would happen if they didn’t? Our college system would go to hell very quickly.” However, he has also argued that foreign students take slots from Americans and only wants those who “can love our country.”Critics claim that the administration’s policies are contributing to the decline by pressuring colleges to limit enrollment, tightening visa screening, and revoking thousands of visas, arguing that those students broke the law or supported terrorism. Trump stated, “We don’t want troublemakers here.”The administration maintains that these measures are about security, but experts like Aw argue, “This idea that international students are a national security threat is one that there is no evidence to support that at all.”Trump last week suggested doubling the number of Chinese students in American universities, a move that contrasts with his previous crackdown and has sparked criticism from conservatives.

    WASHINGTON —

    Colleges and universities across the United States are preparing for a significant drop in international student enrollment this fall as President Donald Trump aims to overhaul the vetting and admission process for foreign students.

    Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of the National Association of Foreign Student Advisers (NAFSA), said, “In terms of tuition dollars to universities, that will certainly be an impact, but in addition to universities, they contribute to the local economy.”

    The Association of International Educators says the drop in foreign enrollment could be as high as 15% this fall, which could deprive the U.S. economy of about $7 billion in spending, result in more than 60,000 fewer jobs, and strain school budgets across the country.

    Trump acknowledged the importance of international students last week, saying, “I like that other country students come here. And you know what would happen if they didn’t? Our college system would go to hell very quickly.” However, he has also argued that foreign students take slots from Americans and only wants those who “can love our country.”

    Critics claim that the administration’s policies are contributing to the decline by pressuring colleges to limit enrollment, tightening visa screening, and revoking thousands of visas, arguing that those students broke the law or supported terrorism. Trump stated, “We don’t want troublemakers here.”

    The administration maintains that these measures are about security, but experts like Aw argue, “This idea that international students are a national security threat is one that there is no evidence to support that at all.”

    Trump last week suggested doubling the number of Chinese students in American universities, a move that contrasts with his previous crackdown and has sparked criticism from conservatives.

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  • Eurozone Industrial Production Unexpectedly Expands Amid Signs Recovery for Sector

    Eurozone Industrial Production Unexpectedly Expands Amid Signs Recovery for Sector

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    By Ed Frankl

    Eurozone manufacturing is showing signs of life again after industrial production jumped unexpectedly in December, further signaling that the recent slump in manufacturing in the bloc may be coming to a close.

    Total production rose on 2.6% on month in December, according to figures published Wednesday by European Union statistics…

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  • How to navigate market risk from interest rates, the economy and politics in 2024

    How to navigate market risk from interest rates, the economy and politics in 2024

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    As the U.S. Federal Reserve’s three-year reign in the headlines potentially comes to an end, an analysis of this year’s market themes can offer valuable insights for predicting trends and ensuring attractive returns in 2024.

    Beyond the central bank’s actions, pivotal factors shaping the investment landscape this year include fiscal policies, election outcomes, interest rates and earnings prospects.

    Throughout 2023, a prominent theme emerged: that equities are influenced by factors beyond monetary policy. That trend is likely to persist. 

    A decline in interest rates could significantly increase the relative valuations of equities while simultaneously reducing interest expenses, potentially transforming market dynamics. Contrary to consensus estimates, 2023 brought a more robust earnings rebound, leaving analysts optimistic about 2024.

    The 2024 U.S. presidential election, meanwhile, introduces a new element of uncertainty with the potential to cast a shadow over the market during much of the coming year. 

    Choppy trading, modest earnings growth

    Anticipating a choppy first half of the year due to sluggish economic growth, we see a better opportunity for cyclicals and small-cap stocks to rebound in the latter part of the year. As uncertainty around the election and recession fears dissipate, a broad rally that includes previously ignored cyclicals and small-caps should help propel the S&P 500
    SPX
    higher. 

    Broader macroeconomic conditions support mid-single-digit growth in earnings per share throughout 2024. Factors such as moderate economic expansion, controlled inflation and stable interest rates are expected to provide a conducive environment for companies, enabling them to sustain and potentially improve their earnings performance. We estimate EPS growth of 6.5%. This projected growth aligns with the broader market sentiment indicating a steady upward trajectory in earnings for the upcoming year, fostering investor confidence and supporting valuation expectations across various sectors.

    “ If the economy has not been in recession at the time of the first rate cut but enters one within a year, the Dow enters a bear market.”

    When it comes to U.S. stock-market performance around rate cuts, the phase of the economic cycle matters. When there has been no recession, lower rates have juiced the markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    rallying by an average of 23.8% one year later.

    If the economy has not been in recession at the time of the first cut but enters one within a year, the Dow has entered a bear market every time, declining by an average of 4.9% one year later. Our base case is a soft landing, but history shows how critical avoiding recession is for the bull market as the Fed prepares to ease policy.   

    Big on small-caps

    This past year has posed a hurdle for small-cap stocks due to the absence of a driving force. These stocks typically perform better as the economy emerges from a recession. While they are currently undervalued, their earnings growth has been notably lacking. If concerns about a recession diminish, a normal yield curve could serve as a potential catalyst for small-cap stocks.

    Growth vs. value

    The ongoing outperformance of megacap growth stocks that we saw in 2023 might hinge on their ability to sustain superior earnings growth, validating their current valuations. Defensive sectors in the value category, meanwhile, are notably oversold and might exhibit strong performance, particularly toward the latter part of the first quarter. Should concerns about a recession dissipate, cyclical sectors within the value category could outperform, particularly if broader market conditions turn favorable in the latter half of the year.

    Handling uncertainty

    The Fed’s enduring influence regarding the prospect of a soft landing in 2024 remains a pivotal point in the market’s focus. Considering the themes of the past year and the multifaceted influences on equities beyond monetary policy, investors are advised to navigate through uncertainties stemming from unintended fiscal shifts, upcoming elections and the impact of fluctuating interest rates. While a potentially choppy start to the year is anticipated, it could create opportunities for cyclical and small-cap stocks later in the year.

    Ed Clissold is chief of U.S. strategies at Ned Davis Research.

    Also read: Mortgage rates dip after Fed meeting. Freddie Mac expects rates to decline more.

    More: After the Fed’s comments, grab these CD rates while you still can

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  • Eurozone Industrial Production Slumped for Third-Straight Month

    Eurozone Industrial Production Slumped for Third-Straight Month

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    By Ed Frankl

    Industrial output in the eurozone contracted for the third month in a row November, reflecting the continued downturn in the sector.
    

    Total production fell 0.3% on month in November, according to figures published Monday by European Union statistics agency Eurostat, after a 0.7% decline recorded in October. It matched expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
    

    

    Durable consumer goods led the decline, with output falling 2.0%. Production of intermediate goods declined 0.6% while for capital goods it tumbled 0.8%. Energy production, however, recorded a rise in output of 0.9%.
    

    However, there has been evidence that recent struggles in the industrial sector in the eurozone could be bottoming out. A key survey of purchasing manufacturers said sentiment rose in December in the manufacturing industry.
    

    Among larger eurozone nations, output dipped on month by 0.3% in Germany and 1.5% in Italy, but expanded by 0.5% in France and 1.1% in Spain.
    

    Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
    

    

    

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    House speaker election: Jim Jordan racks up endorsements before vote at noon Tuesday
    
			
    House speaker election: Jim Jordan racks up endorsements before vote at noon Tuesday
    
			
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    Rep. Jim Jordan made progress Monday in his push to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives, winning endorsements from some fellow Republicans who just last week had refused to back him.
    

    The narrowly divided chamber of Congress is expected to vote around noon Eastern Tuesday to select a speaker, with the move coming after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted two weeks ago and after No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise ended his bid for the post last week.
    

    

    GOP Rep. Ann Wagner of Missouri, who previously said a Jordan speakership was a non-starter for her, switched her stance on Monday. She said in a post on X that her colleague from Ohio “has allayed my concerns about keeping the government open with conservative funding, the need for strong border security, our need for consistent international support in times of war and unrest … as well as the need for stronger protections against the scourge of human trafficking and child exploitation.”
    

    Similarly, GOP Rep. Mike Rogers of Alabama, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, announced in a post on X that he was backing Jordan after saying last week that there was nothing that Jordan could do to win his support. Rogers pointed to an accord on an annual Pentagon bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, saying he and Jordan had “agreed on the need for Congress to pass a strong NDAA, appropriations to fund our government’s vital functions, and other important legislation like the Farm Bill.”
    

    Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan of Florida offered his support for Jordan as well on Monday, though he noted that he’s “deeply frustrated by the way this process has played out.” Another endorsement came from GOP Rep. Ken Calvert of California, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee’s defense subpanel.
    

    Jordan — who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump — sent a letter to his colleagues in which he called for coming together after a chaotic two weeks, saying: “It is time we unite to get back to work on behalf of the American people.” The congressman, a co-founder of the hardline House Freedom Caucus and chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, also told CNN that he was confident about Tuesday’s vote, saying: “I feel good about it.”
    

    Analysts have been warning that the process of finding a replacement for McCarthy is preventing the House from addressing crucial matters, such as avoiding a government shutdown next month and supporting Israel in its war against Hamas.
    

    House Republicans made Jordan their nominee for speaker on Friday, but he drew just 124 votes while 81 lawmakers backed another candidate for speaker, GOP Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia. In another round of voting on Friday, Jordan still had 55 colleagues voting against him, but he now appears to be flipping some of them to his side.
    

    One betting market, Smarkets, was giving Jordan a 33% chance of becoming speaker. 
    

    Spending cuts and shutdown coming?
    

    Having Jordan as speaker could mean a 1% cut in defense
    
        ITA
    
       and non-defense spending, noted Philip Wallach, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. That’s because this year’s debt-limit deal includes a provision that calls for such reductions if there aren’t bipartisan agreements on a dozen funding bills before Jan. 1 and instead a reliance on short-term measures known as continuing resolutions, or CRs.
    

    “It is now clear,” Wallach said during an AEI event on Monday, that Jordan’s “plan is to have us live off continuing resolutions and implement this 1% cut.” 
    

    “That’s a concrete thing where he could say, ‘Well, we’re moving in the right direction. We’ve taken a hard stand,’” the AEI expert added.
    

    The CEO of one financial advisory firm also sees standoffs in the future.
    

    “We expect the next U.S. speaker will be less inclined to make deals than McCarthy; in many ways it makes more sense for them, politically, not to be a deal-maker in the current environment,” said deVere Group’s Nigel Green in a statement.
    

    “We believe that a U.S. government shutdown is now more likely with a new speaker of the House, and this has the potential to create a domino effect in global financial markets
    
        SPX.
    
      ”
    

    BTIG analysts Isaac Boltansky and Isabel Bandoroff said the speaker drama suggests that next year’s election will also be full of twists and turns. 
    

    “We have followed every twist and turn of the speakership race, and there is only one takeaway we can share with absolute certainty: This confirms that the 2024 election cycle will be exhausting, volatile, and just downright weird from beginning to end,” they wrote in a note.
    

    U.S. stocks
    
        DJIA
    

            COMP
    
       closed higher Monday, as investors looked ahead to earnings season and unwound the flight-to-safety trades seen last week on fears the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict.
    

    

    

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    Eurozone Braced for Weaker Growth in 2023, 2024, EU Forecasts Say
    
			
    Eurozone Braced for Weaker Growth in 2023, 2024, EU Forecasts Say
    
			
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    By Joshua Kirby and Ed Frankl
    

    The eurozone is likely to grow at a slower pace than previously expected this year and next amid weak domestic consumption and flagging global demand, with the powerhouse German economy notably set to shrink, according to fresh figures published by the European Union executive Monday.
    

    

    The 20-member bloc should book growth of 0.8% this year and 1.3% in 2024, revised down from previous estimates in May of 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively, according to the European Commission.
    

    Weak private consumption amid stubbornly high inflation lies behind the gloomier outlook for economic growth, the EC said.
    

    “High and still increasing consumer prices for most goods and services are taking a heavier toll than expected in the spring forecast,” the commission said. Eurozone consumer prices rose 5.3% in August, failing to ease from the previous month.
    

    The forecasts come ahead of a key European Central Bank rate-decision meeting on Thursday, when the central bank will publish its own forecasts for the bloc’s economy and inflation. The bank is widely expected to lower its estimates for growth this year.
    

    The bloc’s economy notched growth of just 0.1% in the April-June period, according to revised figures published last week, and many economists expect the eurozone to stagnate in the second half of the year.
    

    Germany’s economy–the largest in the bloc–is now expected to contract, according to the EC’s new estimates. Gross domestic product should be 0.4% lower on year in 2023, compared with a previous estimate of slight growth. It would be the only one of the bloc’s major economies to slip backward, according to the forecasts, which see slightly higher growth for France and Spain than previously estimated.
    

    Closely watched economic forecasters including the German Institute for Economic Research and the Kiel-based IfW Institute last week ticked down their own expectations for German growth, which has been hamstrung by weaker industrial output.
    

    Inflation in the eurozone is meanwhile expected to stand at 5.6% for 2023 as a whole, a slightly lower forecast than the 5.8% previously estimated by the EC. However, inflation is set to ease less rapidly next year than previously forecast, with prices to rise by 2.9% on year rather than by 2.8%, according to the new estimates.
    

    The higher forecast comes despite an easing of the energy bills that spiked last year after Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine, the commission said. Higher oil prices might slow the downward trajectory of inflation next year, but prices for services and food should ease steadily amid high interest rates, lower input prices and smoother supply chains, the commission said.
    

    Nevertheless, a tighter monetary policy–with an unprecedent cycle of interest-rate rises by the ECB with the aim of stemming inflation–has begun to feed into the wider economy, damping industrial production and demand, the EC said. Industrial output is weakening and services growth is fading, despite resurgent tourism in many eurozone members, it said.
    

    The sluggishness should continue next year, with little prospect of a major rebound in growth, the EC said. Global demand remains weak as the Chinese economy grinds to a halt, the commission said, meaning the bloc can’t rely on external demand to offset lower domestic consumption.
    

    Nevertheless, lower inflation, continued strength in the jobs market and resultant rises in real wages offer some bright spots for the coming year, the commission said. The bloc’s labor market has remained “exceptionally strong,” with record low unemployment rates and rising wages, it said.
    

    “Monetary tightening may weigh on economic activity more heavily than expected, but could also lead to a faster decline in inflation that would accelerate the restoration of real incomes,” it said. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to cast a pall of uncertainty over the outlook, the EC said, as does the climate crisis, which has led to disastrous wildfires and floods in many parts of the continent over the summer.
    

    Write to Joshua Kirby at joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby, and to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
    

    

    

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    Eurozone Economy Contracts Further in July, PMIs Suggest
    
			
    Eurozone Economy Contracts Further in July, PMIs Suggest
    
			
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    By Ed Frankl
    

    Business activity in the eurozone weakened in July, falling further below the level that marks contraction, data from a purchasing managers’ survey showed Monday.
    

    The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index–which gauges activity in the manufacturing and services sectors–fell to an eight-month low of 48.9 in July, from a downwardly revised 49.9 in June.
    

    

    The reading also fell below expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, who expected the PMI to come in at 49.7.
    

    Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
    

    

    

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    Eurozone Unemployment Held at Record Low in May
    
			
    Eurozone Unemployment Held at Record Low in May
    
			
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    By Ed Frankl
    

    The eurozone’s unemployment rate held steady at a record low in May, a reflection of a persistently tight labor market and a signal that European Central Bank policymakers might need to act further to curb economic activity as they try to lower inflation.
    

    The bloc’s unemployment rate was 6.5% in the month, matching the level of April, according to data from the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat released Friday.
    

    

    The May reading was the same as expectations from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The rate has been steadily falling since it reached 8.6% in August 2020, at the height of the pandemic.
    

    The number of unemployed people in the eurozone in May fell 57,000 compared with April to 11.01 million, Eurostat said. Youth unemployment rate was stable at 13.9% in May.
    

    Across the euro area, the labor market remains tight. Seasonally adjusted unemployment levels held steady in Germany, and France, at 2.9% and 7.0% respectively, while it fell by 0.2 percentage points in Italy to 7.6% and rose by 0.1 points to 12.7% in Spain, Eurostat said.
    

    But there are signals that the labor market could be loosening. Germany earlier Friday reported that its adjusted unemployment figure–based on national standards–rose unexpectedly to 5.7% from 5.6%. This could ease the pressure on the European Central Bank, which sees a cooling labor market as a sign that its interest-rate hikes could be helping curtail economic activity in its efforts to lower inflation.
    

    Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
    

    

    

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    Eurozone Entered Technical Recession in 1Q
    
			
    Eurozone Entered Technical Recession in 1Q
    
			
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    By Joshua Kirby
    

    The economy of the eurozone slipped into technical recession in the first quarter of the year, as forecasts were revised downward both for the end of last year and the first three months of 2023.
    

    The bloc’s gross domestic product fell 0.1% in the first three months of the year, data from statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday, below the previous estimate of slight growth.
    

    

    The agency also lowered its final estimate for the last quarter of 2022 to a 0.1% fall from a previous flatline estimate, meaning the bloc entered a technical recession, which typically refers to two quarters of negative growth.
    

    The reading is below the flat growth expected according to an average of economists’ polled by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the release.
    

    Some economists nevertheless anticipated a potentially weaker showing. The revision to a decline was likely, analysts at UniCredit said ahead of the release, pointing to worse figures in Germany and Ireland and weakness in private consumption.
    

    Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, itself entered recession in the first quarter as household spending was squeezed by high inflation rates, according to figures published at the end of last month.
    

    Both government and household consumption were lower on the quarter in the eurozone, as were both imports and exports, Eurostat said.
    

    Compared with the same period the previous year, GDP rose 1%, Eurostat said. The agency had previously estimated a 1.3% rise on the year.
    

    Write to Joshua Kirby at joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby
    

    

    

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    ECB not ready to ‘pause’ rate hikes as inflation fight continues, Lagarde says
    
			
    ECB not ready to ‘pause’ rate hikes as inflation fight continues, Lagarde says
    
			
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    The European Central Bank on Thursday lifted interest rates by 25 basis points, slowing the pace of tightening as it delivered a seventh straight increase, indicating it’s not ready to press the pause button.
    

    “We are not pausing,” ECB President Christine Lagarde told reporters at a news conference, adding that the stance was “very clear.”
    

    

    The increase lifted the ECB’s main rate to 3.25%, near a 15-year high.
    

    “The inflation outlook continues to be too high for too long,” the ECB Governing Council said in a statement at the conclusion of its policy meeting. 
    

    “Headline inflation has declined over recent months, but underlying price pressures remain strong. At the same time, the past rate increases are being transmitted forcefully to euro area financing and monetary conditions, while the lags and strength of transmission to the real economy remain uncertain,” the ECB said.
    

    Lagarde told reporters that the lending survey informed the decision to lift rates by a quarter point rather than a half point. She said there was a strong consensus behind the quarter-point move, while acknowledging some policy makers had preferred a half-point hike.
    

    The euro
    
        EURUSD,
    
        -0.38%
    
       initially slumped after the statement, but rebounded sharply to trim a loss versus the U.S. dollar after Lagarde said the ECB wasn’t prepared to pause the rate-hiking cycle. The euro was down 0.2% at $1.1035 after trading as low as $1.1003. The euro has rallied 3% versus the dollar so far in 2023.
    

    European government bond yields were also lifted after Lagarde ruled out a pause. The yield on the 10-year German government bond
    
        TMBMKDE-10Y,
    
        2.242%    ,
    
       or bund, was up around a half of a basis point at 2.289%.
    

    The ECB move comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday delivered a 10th consecutive rate increase, but signaled that it was prepared to hold off on further tightening depending on incoming economic and financial data. Asked if the ECB could continue on a tightening path if the U.S. central bank paused, Lagarde dismissed the notion that ECB decisions were “dependent” on the Fed.
    

    Market participants, meanwhile, have priced in three Fed rate cuts by year-end. The ECB, in contrast, was expected to deliver further monetary tightening.
    

    Inflation in the eurozone continued to run at a 7% year-over-year clip in April, roughly in line with market expectations, but a modest acceleration from March. Core inflation, excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, ticked down a tenth to 5.6% from 5.7%.
    

    A slowing eurozone economy, however, has bolstered arguments for bringing the monetary tightening cycle to an end, economists said. The ECB’s bank lending survey released Tuesday showed a tightening in conditions, with the largest tightening in credit standards for the last two quarters since the sovereign debt crisis.
    

    The ECB in March shrugged off worries about the banking sector, delivering a half-point rate hike but signaling that future decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, abandoning a longstanding policy of “forward guidance” aimed at massaging market expectations around future rate moves. 
    

    

    

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    Eurozone inflation fell more than expected in January, to the lowest rate since May 2022
    
			
    Eurozone inflation fell more than expected in January, to the lowest rate since May 2022
    
			
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    Eurozone inflation eased more than expected in January, reaching an eight-month low, but price pressures persisted beyond energy as the European Central Bank gets ready for further interest-rate increases.
    

    Consumer prices rose 8.5% in January compared with the same month a year earlier, down from a 9.2% increase in December, according to preliminary data from the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat released Wednesday.
    

    

    This marks the lowest inflation rate since May, after three consecutive declines following a record high of 10.6% in October.
    

    Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected inflation to fall to 9.1%.
    

    The decline in inflation was driven by moderating energy prices, which increased by 17.2% compared with a 25.5% rise in December. However, food, alcohol and tobacco prices climbed 14.1% on year, accelerating from the 13.8% increase recorded the previous month.
    

    The core inflation rate–which strips out the more volatile categories of food and energy–stood at 5.2% in January, unchanged from December.
    

    The European Central Bank raised interest rates at an unprecedented pace in 2022 in order to tame high inflation. The bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, which would bring the deposit rate to 2.50%, and further increases are expected as the eurozone’s economy is proving more resilient than anticipated and inflation remains high.
    

    Eurozone inflation data for January includes an estimate for Germany as the official release has been postponed to next week due to technical problems.
    

    Write to Xavier Fontdegloria at xavier.fontdegloria@wsj.com
    

    

    

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    Progressives Misunderstand Bitcoin Because They’ve Lost Their Way
    
			
    Progressives Misunderstand Bitcoin Because They’ve Lost Their Way
    
			
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    Logan Bolinger is a lawyer and the author of a free weekly newsletter about the intersection of Bitcoin, macroeconomics, geopolitics and law.
    

    As Bitcoin continues to infiltrate U.S. politics and policy, debates about which political party is more naturally aligned with the orange ethos have proliferated and intensified. The increasing number of self-described Progressives entering the space has catalyzed some heated discussions about how Bitcoin fits into the ideology of the political left. Is Bitcoin Progressive? Is it fundamentally not Progressive? Is it something else? To understand why these may not even be the right questions and why many (though not all) Progressives seem to struggle with Bitcoin, we should refine some of the partisan language and identifiers that tend to constrain our thinking. To the point, it’s high time we disentangle capital “P” Progressivism from lowercase “p” progressivism. 
    

    

    

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     Logan Bolinger
    

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